From: Ken Der
To: CityCouncil-List
Subject: [EXTERNAL] Fwd: AC Transit Realign Comments + Pilot Proposal Date: Thursday, November 30, 2023 10:13:58 PM
Attachments: System Map - Existing (1).pdf
Line 50 Map - Popout (2).pdf
Line 50 Map - POI (3).pdf
Line 50 Map - Context (4).pdf
Changes to Lines 19 and 96 (5).pdf
System Map - Phase 1 (6).pdf
System Map - Phase 2 (7).pdf
Line 50 Weekday Schedule (8).pdf
Alameda Facebook Comments on Line 50 (9).pdf
Hello Mayor and Councilmembers,
Ahead of Tuesday's Council meeting, I would like to send my thoughts regarding AC Transit's Realign scenarios (Item 7B) and the state of public transit in Alameda. I have already spoken and submitted the below as public comment during November's Transportation Commission meeting, but wanted to send to Council as well.
Thanks!
---
As a resident of the West End, I generally favor the "Balanced Coverage" Realign scenario. I have the following thoughts/concerns on this scenario:
It mostly maintains status quo coverage in Alameda. I'm almost relieved to see that no significant cuts to service are proposed.
The recombination of Lines 51A and 51B is a bit concerning. I am a frequent Line 51A rider and buses are already unpredictable--delays of up to 20 minutes and bus-bunching during commute hours are common. Line 51A was also reduced to 12 minute frequency back in August and I'm disappointed it will stay that way as a baseline. However, I am tentatively excited for a one- seat ride between Alameda and Berkeley.
I am disappointed that no service is proposed to West End ferry terminals.
I am not in favor of the "Frequent Service" scenario:
Of course, I support additional West End (and Line 51A) service, but not at the expense of Line 19 on the Northern Waterfront. Both areas should receive additional transit service to support new housing developments.
Rerouting Line 20 means that Bay Farm and Southshore residents will have greater travel times to reach local BART stations. We need an Alameda crosstown route, but not like this. (See below for a proposal) Eliminating the Line 21 connection to the Oakland Airport severs a critical link for residents.
I am disappointed that no service is proposed to West End ferry terminals.
But importantly, neither the Balanced Coverage nor the Frequent Service scenario come close to meeting the City's needs! With 5,353 new RHNA housing units on the way in Alameda, I am greatly concerned about mode share and traffic on and off the island, and in particular on the West End. Alameda is unique in that we have limited points of entry and exit. The Posey/Webster Tubes are the only way in/out on the West End and they are becoming more and more jammed during peak hours.
As such, I'd like to propose a new route to serve a growing, evolving Alameda.
Understanding it is difficult to suggest a new line, particularly when AC Transit is facing tough financial and service decisions, perhaps the proposal below could come as a pilot like Line 78 or become the "Alameda Shuttle" concept that the Commission/City has floated in the past? Maybe not now, maybe not even in August 2024, but can AC Transit, Alameda, and the TMA partner with the housing developers (who not only add to our City's traffic but are no doubt profiting from all of the building) to fund this or other additional investments as we continue to grow? Proposing a New “Line 50”:
I've attached a series of documents highlighting a proposal I’ve created for a new, all-day “Line 50” between Downtown Oakland and Bay Farm Island. This route attempts to:
-Consolidate 4 existing routes/proposals into just one: 1) Ferry Shuttle (implemented as Line 78 in 2021), 2) “Line 96X” Site A service (approved, pending implementation, https://bit.ly/3XLed4C
), 3) Crosstown Shuttle to Bay Farm
(concept stage only, https://bit.ly/3IBl8cx), 4) the "Alameda Shuttle" -Restore bus service on Central/Encinal Aves. This creates bi-directional “Transbay” service to SF-bound ferries, and students who rely on Line 631 will have an all-day alternative. In 2015, Alamedans appeared to more strongly favor restoring service on Encinal rather than on Buena Vista, but the City elected to move ahead with Line 19 in December 2016. (Details: https://bit.ly/3EgQC4T , see Exhibit 3)
-Create the possibility of timed ferry transfers at all 3 ferry terminals, with connections to the Harbor Bay Shuttle service. See attached mock schedule. -Work together with Line 96 to offer 15-minute frequency from Site A and Alameda Point to Downtown Oakland
Funding:
The big developers! Plus, AC Transit/City has suggested funding from RM3 and Alameda TMA for Line 78/service improvements, so there's that possibility.
Regardless, a single “Line 50” seems easier to implement than 3 or 4 piecewise proposals.
Closing Thoughts:
The Line 78 pilot failed to gain ridership because it had an overly specific purpose of shuttling ferry riders to Seaplane Lagoon at a time when SF- bound ridership has yet to recover and riding Transbay Line O was faster than making the bus-ferry transfer. Restoring all-day service on Encinal after 20 years offers an opportunity to gain new ridership, provide key crosstown connections to POIs and ferry terminals, and help the City on its road to becoming more sustainable and climate friendly.
Attachment Descriptions:
System Map - Existing (1): Existing AC Transit lines in Alameda and select issues.
Line 50 Map - Popout (2): "Line 50" overlaid on existing route network Line 50 Map - POI (3): Points of interest within 1/4-mile of "Line 50" Line 50 Map - Context (4).pdf: Existing bus lines + "Line 50" (with their ¼-mile catchments), along with select improvements highlighted Changes to Lines 19 and 96 (5): Mockup of West End changes in conjunction with "Line 50"
System Map - Phase 1 (6): Full "near-term" network (Existing Lines + "Line 50") System Map - Phase 2 (7): A "long-term vision," incorporating existing lines + "Line 50" + Alameda Point BRT (assuming Line 6 extension) + "Line 63" restoration for 15- minute service on most Alameda corridors. This is my version of the "Unconstrained Network."
Line 50 Weekday Schedule (8): A mock schedule demonstrating feasibility of timed ferry connections (based on 12/2021 schedules)
Alameda Facebook Comments on Line 50 (9): Feedback I received when I posted this proposal to a local Facebook group in March 2023, ahead of the cancellation of Line 78.
City of Alameda
Existing AC Transit Bus Service
(And Select Issues)
Line 19 (6am-10pm, 20-30 Min)
Line 20 (5am-12am, 30 Min)
Line 21 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line 51A/851 (24 Hours, 10-60 Min)
Line 78 (Commute Hours Only)
Line 96 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line O (5am-10pm, 10-60 Min)
Line OX (Commute hours only)
Line W (Commute hours only)
ISOLATED WEST:
Transfers required to
access West End &
Alameda Point from any
other location in
Alameda
ENCINAL AVENUE:
No reliable transit for Gold
Coast, other locations south
of Encinal Ave. Line 631
service can be augmented.
UNDER-SERVED WEST:
Santa Clara and RAMP lost
local service in 2003 & 2010,
Central and Lincoln lost
Transbay service in 2003.
Line 96 is insufficient to meet
new housing and school
demands.
LINE 78: Directly
competes with Line O
for Transbay ridership.
Commute-hour service
not beneficial for
connectivity
LINE O:
Pre-pandemic frequency
provided suboptimal
service to East End, half-
hourly service should be
mainstay
Line 50 - Alameda Shuttle
Downtown Oakland - Harbor Bay Ferry
Basic Service
Off-Peak Service
1/4-Mile Buffer
New or Adjusted Stops
TIMED TRANSFERS AT
MAIN STREET FERRY:
Line 50 meets SELECT
midday and weekend
ferry service to/from San
Francisco
TIMED TRANSFERS AT
SEAPLANE LAGOON:
Line 50 meets MOST
weekday ferry service
trips to/from San
Francisco
TIMED TRANSFERS AT
HARBOR BAY FERRY:
Line 50 meets SELECT
peak-hour ferry service
AND SELECT Harbor
Bay Shuttle service
Line 50 - Alameda Shuttle
Downtown Oakland - Harbor Bay Ferry
Basic Service
Off-Peak Service
1/4-Mile Buffer
New or Adjusted Stops
Points of Interest
School
Shopping
Medical
Recreation
Municipal
Entertainment
Housing
Transportation
City of Alameda
Improved AC Transit Bus Service
Phase 1 - Context
Line 19 (6am-10pm, 20-30 Min)
Line 20 (5am-12am, 30 Min)
Line 21 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line 50 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line 51A/851 (24 Hours, 10-60 Min)
Line 96 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line O (5am-10pm, 10-60 Min)
Line OX (Commute hours only)
Line W (Commute hours only)
ALAMEDA POINT:
Site A and Collaborative
receive frequent, 15-
minute service to
Downtown Oakland with
connections to other
Alameda locations.
NEW TRANSBAY CORRIDORS:
Encinal Avenue has bi-
directional, timed connections to
the ferry at Seaplane/Main Street
and Harbor Bay. All West End
corridors serve the ferry.
WEST END SCHOOLS:
AOA, NEA/ACLC, Island
High, ASTI, and College of
Alameda are provided with
all-day, cross-island service
COVERAGE: Much of
Alameda is within
walking distance from
all-day transit service!
BAY FARM ISLAND:
Additional service provided
along Island Dr. and
Mecartney Rd. Connections
to Harbor Bay Park
available at Harbor Bay
Ferry
Routing Changes: Lines 19 and 96
Line 19
Line 96
New Line 50
New Line 50 Stops
New/Adjusted Line 96 Stops
Line 19:
Minor route adjustment to
serve Alameda Landing,
covering portions of existing
Line 96
Line 96:
Minor route adjustment to
better serve Alameda Skate
Park, Antiques Fair, & City
Hall West
Line 96:
Rerouted onto Ralph
Appezato Memorial Parkway
and Marina Village,
connecting with Line 19
City of Alameda
Improved AC Transit Bus Service
Phase 1 - Near Term
Line 19 (6am-10pm, 20-30 Min)
Line 20 (5am-12am, 30 Min)
Line 21 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line 50 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line 51A/851 (24 Hours, 10-60 Min)
Line 96 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line O (5am-10pm, 10-60 Min)
Line OX (Commute hours only)
Line W (Commute hours only)
City of Alameda
Improved AC Transit Bus Service
Phase 2 - Long Term
Line 6 (5am-12am, 10-20 Min)
Line 19 (6am-10pm, 15 Min)
Line 20 (5am-12am, 30 Min)
Line 21 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line 50 (6am-10pm, 30 Min)
Line 63 (Commute hours only, 30 Min)
Line 51A/851 (24 Hours, 10-60 Min)
Line O (5am-10pm, 10-60 Min)
Line OX (Commute hours only)
Line W (Commute hours only)
Line 50
Downtown Oakland (14th/Broadway) to Harbor Bay Ferry, Monday through Friday
Downtown
Oakland
Stargell Ave.
& Fifth St.
Seaplane Lagoon
Ferry Terminal
Main Street
Ferry Terminal
Webster St. &
Lincoln Ave.
Encinal Ave.
& Oak St.
Island Dr. &
Mecartney Rd.
Harbor Bay
Ferry Terminal
Ferry
Times
2 6:09a 6:16 6:22 --- 6:29 6:39 6:49 6:53 ---
1 6:39a 6:46 6:52 --- 6:59 7:09 7:19 7:23 7:30am
3 7:09a 7:16 7:22 --- 7:29 7:39 7:49 7:53 ---
4 7:39a 7:46 7:52 --- 7:59 8:09 8:19 8:23 8:30am
2 8:09a 8:16 8:22 --- 8:29 8:39 8:49 8:53 9:00am
1 8:39a 8:46 8:52 --- 8:59 9:09 9:19 9:23 9:30am
3 9:09a 9:16 9:22 --- 9:29 9:39 9:49 9:53 ---
4 9:39a 9:46 9:52 --- 9:59 10:09 10:19 10:23 ---
2 10:09a 10:16 10:22 --- 10:29 10:39 10:49 10:53 ---
1 10:39a 10:46 --- 10:50 10:59 11:09 11:19 11:23 ---
3 11:09a 11:16 --- 11:20 11:29 11:39 11:49 11:53 12:00pm 4 11:39a 11:46 --- 11:50 11:59 12:09 12:19 12:23 ---
2 12:09p 12:16 --- 12:20 12:29 12:39 12:49 12:53 ---
1 12:39p 12:46 --- 12:50 12:59 1:09 1:19 1:23 ---
3 1:10p 1:17 --- 1:21 1:30 1:40 1:50 1:54 ---
4 1:45p 1:52 --- 1:56 2:05 2:15 2:25 2:29 1:50pm
2 2:11p 2:18 --- 2:22 2:31 2:41 2:52 2:56 ---
1 2:41p 2:49 --- 2:53 3:02 3:12 3:23 3:27 2:45pm
3 3:11p 3:19 --- 3:23 3:32 3:42 3:53 3:57 3:10pm
4 3:41p 3:49 3:55 --- 4:02 4:12 4:23 4:27 3:50pm
2 4:11p 4:19 4:25 --- 4:32 4:42 4:53 4:57 ---
1 4:41p 4:39 4:55 --- 5:02 5:12 5:23 5:27 4:50pm
3 5:11p 5:19 5:25 --- 5:32 5:42 5:53 5:57 ---
4 5:41p 5:49 5:55 --- 6:02 6:12 6:22 6:26 5:50pm
2 6:11p 6:19 6:25 --- 6:32 6:42 6:52 6:56 ---
1 6:36p 6:44 6:50 --- 6:57 7:07 7:17 7:21 6:45pm
3 7:12p 7:19 7:25 --- 7:32 7:42 7:52 7:56 7:20pm
4 7:37p 7:44 --- 7:48 7:57 8:07 8:17 8:21 ---
2 8:09p 8:16 --- 8:20 8:27 8:37 8:47 8:51 8:15pm
1 8:37p 8:44 8:50 --- 8:57 9:07 9:17 9:21 8:45pm
3 9:09p 9:16 --- 9:20 9:29 9:39 9:49 9:53 ---
4 9:44p 9:51 --- 9:55 10:02 10:12 10:22 10:26 9:50pm
2 10:14p 10:19 --- --- 10:28 10:38 10:48 10:52 ---
Line 50
Harbor Bay Ferry to Downtown Oakland, Monday through Friday
Harbor Bay
Ferry Terminal
Island Dr. &
Mecartney Rd.
Encinal Ave.
& Oak St.
Webster St. &
Lincoln Ave.
Seaplane Lagoon
Ferry Terminal
Main Street
Ferry Terminal
Stargell Ave.
& Fifth St.
Downtown
Oakland
Ferry
Times
1 5:49a 5:53 6:03 6:13 6:20 --- 6:26 6:34 6:30am
3 6:19a 6:23 6:33 6:43 6:50 --- 6:56 7:04 7:00am
4 6:44a 6:48 6:58 7:08 7:15 --- 7:21 7:30 7:25am
2 7:13a 7:17 7:28 7:38 7:45 --- 7:51 8:00 ---
1 7:38a 7:42 7:53 8:03 8:10 --- 8:16 8:25 8:20am
3 8:08a 8:12 8:23 8:33 8:40 --- 8:46 8:55 ---
4 8:34a 8:38 8:48 8:58 9:05 --- 9:11 9:19 9:15am
2 9:08a 9:12 9:22 9:32 9:39 --- 9:45 9:53 ---
1 9:34a 9:38 9:48 9:59 10:05 --- 10:11 10:19 10:10am
3 10:04a 10:08 10:18 10:28 --- 10:37 10:41 10:49 10:40am 4 10:39a 10:43 10:53 11:03 --- 11:12 11:16 11:24 ---
2 11:09a 11:13 11:23 11:33 --- 11:42 11:46 11:54 11:45am 1 11:39a 11:43 11:53 12:03 --- 12:12 12:16 12:24 12:20pm 3 12:09p 12:13 12:23 12:33 --- 12:42 12:46 12:54 ---
4 12:39p 12:43 12:53 1:03 --- 1:12 1:16 1:24 ---
2 1:10p 1:14 1:24 1:34 --- 1:43 1:47 1:55 ---
1 1:40p 1:44 1:54 2:04 --- 2:13 2:17 2:25 ---
3 2:10p 2:14 2:24 2:34 --- 2:43 2:47 3:55 ---
4 2:40p 2:44 2:54 3:04 --- 3:13 3:17 3:25 ---
2 3:10p 3:14 3:24 3:34 3:41 --- 3:47 3:55 ---
1 3:40p 3:44 3:54 4:04 4:11 --- 4:17 4:25 ---
3 4:10p 4:14 4:24 4:34 4:41 --- 4:47 4:55 4:05pm
4 4:40p 4:44 4:54 5:04 5:11 --- 5:17 5:25 ---
2 5:10p 5:14 5:24 5:34 5:41 --- 5:47 5:55 5:05pm
1 5:40p 5:44 5:54 6:04 6:11 --- 6:17 6:25 ---
3 6:10p 6:14 6:24 6:34 6:41 --- 6:47 6:55 6:05pm
4 6:40p 6:44 6:54 7:04 7:11 --- 7:17 7:25 ---
2 7:10p 7:14 7:24 7:34 7:41 --- 7:47 7:55 7:05pm
1 7:40p 7:44 7:54 8:04 --- 8:13 8:17 8:25 ---
3 8:10p 8:14 8:24 8:34 --- 8:43 8:47 9:55 ---
4 8:40p 8:44 8:54 9:04 --- 9:13 9:17 9:25 ---
2 9:10p 9:14 9:24 9:34 --- 9:43 9:47 9:55 ---
1 9:40p 9:44 9:54 10:04 --- 10:13 10:17 10:25 ---
Line 50
Downtown Oakland (14th/Broadway) to Harbor Bay Ferry, Saturdays/Sundays/Holidays
Downtown
Oakland
Stargell Ave. &
Fifth St.
Main Street Ferry
Terminal
Webster St. &
Lincoln Ave.
Encinal Ave. &
Oak St.
Island Dr. &
Mecartney Rd.
Harbor Bay Ferry
Terminal
Ferry
Times
1 6:14a 6:21 6:25 6:34 6:44 6:54 6:58 ---
2 7:14a 7:21 7:25 7:34 7:44 7:54 7:58 ---
1 8:14a 8:21 8:25 8:34 8:44 8:54 8:58 ---
2 9:14a 9:21 9:25 9:34 9:44 9:54 9:58 ---
1 10:14a 10:21 10:25 10:34 10:44 10:54 10:58 ---
2 11:14a 11:21 11:25 11:34 11:44 11:54 11:58 ---
1 12:14p 12:21 12:25 12:34 12:44 12:54 12:58 ---
2 1:14p 1:21 1:25 1:34 1:44 1:54 1:58 1:10pm
1 2:14p 2:21 2:25 2:34 2:44 2:54 2:58 2:10pm
2 3:14p 3:21 3:25 3:34 3:44 3:54 3:58 ---
1 4:14p 4:21 4:25 4:34 4:44 4:54 4:58 ---
2 5:14p 5:21 5:25 5:34 5:44 5:54 5:58 5:20pm
1 6:14p 6:21 6:25 6:34 6:44 6:54 6:58 6:10pm
2 7:14p 7:21 7:25 7:34 7:44 7:54 7:58 ---
1 8:14p 8:21 8:25 8:34 8:44 8:54 8:58 ---
2 9:14p 9:21 9:25 9:34 9:44 9:54 9:58 ---
1 10:14p 10:21 10:25 10:34 10:44 10:54 10:58 ---
Line 50
Harbor Bay Ferry to Downtown Oakland, Saturdays/Sundays/Holidays
Harbor Bay
Ferry Terminal
Island Dr. &
Mecartney Rd.
Park St. & Otis
Dr.
Webster St. &
Lincoln Ave.
Main Street Ferry
Terminal
Stargell Ave. &
Fifth St.
Downtown
Oakland
Ferry
Times
2 6:17a 6:21 6:31 6:41 6:50 6:54 7:02 ---
1 7:17a 7:21 7:31 7:41 7:50 7:54 8:02 ---
2 8:17a 8:21 8:31 8:41 8:50 8:54 9:03 ---
1 9:17a 9:21 9:31 9:41 9:50 9:54 10:03 ---
2 10:17a 10:21 10:31 10:41 10:50 10:54 11:03 11:00am
1 11:17a 11:21 11:31 11:41 11:50 11:54 12:03 12:00pm
2 12:17p 12:21 12:31 12:41 12:50 12:54 1:03 ---
1 1:17p 1:21 1:31 1:41 1:50 1:54 2:03 ---
2 2:17p 2:21 2:31 2:41 2:50 2:54 3:03 2:55pm
1 3:17p 3:21 3:31 3:41 3:50 3:54 4:03 3:55pm
2 4:17p 4:21 4:31 4:41 4:50 4:54 5:03 4:55pm
1 5:17p 5:21 5:31 5:41 5:50 5:54 6:02 ---
2 6:17p 6:21 6:31 6:41 6:50 6:54 7:02 ---
1 7:17p 7:21 7:31 7:41 7:50 7:54 8:02 ---
2 8:17p 8:21 8:31 8:41 8:50 8:54 9:02 8:55pm
1 9:17p 9:21 9:31 9:41 9:50 9:54 10:02 ---
2 10:17p 10:21 10:31 10:41 10:50 10:54 11:02 ---
Alameda Facebook Comments on “Line 50” Proposal, March 2023 Dirk: It’s hard to say. Pre-covid, taking the ferry instead of the O made sense, but I feel like the time advantage might flip if people start commuting to the office in SF at the levels they did in 2019. (Dirk) Zac: We need the upcoming paid parking permit at the ferry so we can collect data before it makes sense to eliminate the 78. That could encourage people to use the free bus instead of paying to park.
The parking lot is also starting to fill some days so that is about to put pressure on folks to use the 78.
Inconsistencies with the bus leaving early or arriving late also need to be addressed because it pushed me to ride my bike more having been forced to wait over an hour for the next bus. O times are not faster during commute hours than 78 + ferry.
I would like the bus to loop by Main Street terminal too. That would open up some options if you parked at one or the other and also connect spirits alley.
Kristen: With a student 631 rider from Bay Farm, the “50” line would be fantastic! The 631 schedule makes the bus non-viable on too many days, especially the afternoons, but the alternative is a 2-3 bus, hour+ long affair. Google Map’s recommended route often includes a Lyft.
Having a viable, all day (including non-AUSD school days) Bay Farm to West End route would be super useful for my family.
Josh: Thank you for this! An all-day + weekend route from Alameda Point to Park Street would be amazing. I appreciate the route between DTO and Alameda Point that doesn’t do the weird circle around Alameda Landing (current 96 route). If seaplane ferry ran all day and on weekends there wouldn’t be a need for the weird detour to Main Street terminal I think all-day 63 would also be great for me. I live at Alameda Point and i almost never go to Park Street because there’s no convenient way there. I sometimes bike to south shore but an all-day bus there (line 63) would be my preference.
(Fyi I have the ac transit easy pass via Alameda TMA)
Doug B.: Well researched and worth considering! My one quick thought is that your line 50 is cutting out a lot of the proposed 96x route. One of the main reasons for the 96x was to provide service to the southern part of Alameda Point, not just to the seaplane lagoon and out. It is also intended to run every 15 minutes, and it looks like you are proposing 1/2 hour service. Trying to meet those goals while tacking the route on to your proposed 50 route might be too much of a burden though.
Doug H.: I'd like to see the 78 pilot extended for another year+ to see if there are additional changes to commuting patterns and measure the effect of paid parking at the terminal, but this is really great work! Stephen: my life would be easier if they stopped canceling the 6:18 transbay O at Webster and Santa Clara.
Jocelyn: As a person who takes the 96 almost everyday to work I’m not in favor of rerouting on the Webster end. I think the expansion for point alameda is good but this is the only line that services the west north end and you line 50 proposal would then cost me more money to commute. Over all good idea for line 50 but i don’t think other lines should be adjusted. I already walk almost a mile to get to it. I like that your proposing change though.
Debbie: I took this bus to the ferry twice. The second time the ferry arrived back in Alameda a little late and the bus left. I had to get a Lyft home. That was it for me. Good in theory but they need to wait for the ferry to arrive.
Amber: I love the 78 and taking the ferry more than the O to the office, I just wish there were more options in the morning after 8am to take it from mid-island. My office in SF is asking for people to go in 4x a week starting in March, and I know a lot of other companies are pushing for the same.
Karen: Excellent work and close. I've long wondered why there is no bus service along Central to the Point. But I would add a stop at the airport. I find it astonishing that residents of the West End have to take two buses to get to an airport that is 20 minutes away.
Lisa: I like that at least part of High Street has service to Bay Farm. Currently, High Street only has service once an hour during non-commute hours. This means that I don't use AC Transit regularly anymore. You can plan your out going trip, but your return trip can have you standing at a stop for up to an hour! Lilli: This is great work!
Btw, the 19 runs mostly empty. I think it got funded by some of the new builds on BV, like the Del Monte project. I'd want to like it. But I dont.
The thing is, even though it literally stops in front of my house, I usually take 51A. The 19 doesn't really go anywhere useful on the island (and does some odd loops that seem unnecessary), and 51A goes more often.
I have noticed that post pandemic the buses have been way less reliable. Much too often a trip that should be 20 mins turns into an over an hour long ordeal, when the bus doesn't come, and then there's 2 or 3 of them back to back. (And it's 10 mins to drive where I need to go, really testing my willingness to use transit).
August: This is fantastic work and effort! Your focus on frequency and route length (longer) is spot on. I also like that this route ties Alameda together more.
Transfers and particularly timed transfers are brutal to make work - we have years of experience that tells us stuff happens and for most riders once you've been hammered twice with a failed timed transfer you very reasonably come up with another approach. Frequency helps solve this and worst case scenarios go down. A fair number of designers of routes I'm pretty convinced somehow don't have to worry about losing their jobs and refuse to look at the data.
I took a look at line 78 data the last go round (not good - especially in terms of going to the route terminus / ferry).