Atherton City Council
February 7, 2024

THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
Table of Contents
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

T ABLE OF C ONTENTS
Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii List of Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Motivation for Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Overview of Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Organization of Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Disclaimer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 About True North . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Just the Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Quality of Life & Town Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Programs & Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Negative Arguments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Quality of Life & Town Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Overall quality of life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Question 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Ways to Improve Quality of Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Question 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Overall Satisfaction with Town Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Question 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Question 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Support with Renewal Clarification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Question 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Reasons for Opposing Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Question 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Programs & Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Question 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Spending Project Ratings by Subgroup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Question 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Positive Arguments by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Question 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Question 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Negative Arguments by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Question 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Change in Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Background & Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Questionnaire Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Programming & Pre-Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Table of Contents
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sample, Recruiting & Data Collection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Statistical Margin of Error . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Data Collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Rounding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Questionnaire & Toplines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 List of Tables
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 iii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

L IST OF T ABLES
Table 1 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Table 2 Top Programs & Projects by Position at Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Table 3 Top Positive Arguments by Position at Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Table 4 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Table 5 Negative Arguments by Position at Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Table 6 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Table 7 Movement Between Initial & Final Ballot Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Table 8 Demographics of Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 List of Figures
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv

L IST OF F IGURES
Figure 1 Quality of Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 2 Quality of Life by Years in Atherton, Parcel Size & Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Figure 3 Quality of Life by Age & Party . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 4 Changes to Improve Atherton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 5 Overall Satisfaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 6 Overall Satisfaction by Years in Atherton, Parcel Size & Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 7 Overall Satisfaction by Age & Party . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 8 Initial Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 9 Initial Ballot Test With Extension Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 10 Reasons For Not Supporting Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 11 Programs & Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 12 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Figure 13 Interim Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Figure 14 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Figure 15 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 16 Maximum Margin of Error Due to Sampling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Introduction
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

I NTRODUCTION
Nestled between the San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean in San Mateo County, the Town of Atherton is a scenic and rural community home to an estimated 6,888 residents.1 Incorporated in 1923, the Town’s team of full-time and part-time employees provides a full suite of services to residents and local businesses either directly or through contract with other agencies.

Like many municipalities in California, Atherton relies on revenues from a supplemental tax (parcel tax) to fund essential municipal services including police, street maintenance, and infrastructure maintenance/improvements. Originally approved by voters several decades ago and periodically renewed by popular vote, in recent years the parcel tax has generated $1.86 million annually, which represents approximately 20% of the Town’s yearly budget. Unless renewed by Atherton voters, the parcel tax will expire in 2014.

MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH The primary purpose of this study was to produce an unbiased, statistically reliable evaluation of voters’ interest in supporting a ballot measure that would extend the Town’s existing parcel tax without raising the tax rate. In addition to assessing the feasibility of such measure, the survey was designed to identify how to structure the measure so that it is consistent with the community’s priorities and expressed needs. Toward this end, the study was designed to:
• Measure current, baseline support for renewing the Town’s parcel tax • Identify the types of services and projects that voters are most interested in funding with parcel tax revenues
• Expose voters to arguments in favor of—and against—the proposed measure to gauge how information affects support for the parcel tax, and
• Estimate support for the measure once voters are presented with the types of information they will likely be exposed to during the election cycle.

It is important to note at the outset that voters’ opinions about ballot measures are often somewhat fluid, especially when the amount of information they initially have about a measure is limited. How voters think and feel about a measure today may not be the same way they think and feel once they have had a chance to hear more information about the measure during the election cycle. Accordingly, to accurately assess the feasibility of renewing the Town’s parcel tax, it was important that in addition to measuring current opinions about the measure (Question 5), the survey expose respondents to the types of information voters are likely to encounter during an election cycle—including arguments in favor (Question 9) and opposed (Question 11) to the measure—and gauge how this information ultimately impacts their voting decision (Questions 10 & 12).

OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY For a full discussion of the research methods and techniques used in this study, turn to Methodology on page 25. In brief, the survey used a combination of mailed invitations and phone calls to recruit participation in the survey from voters in the Town of Atherton who are likely to participate in the November 2014 election, with a subset who are also likely to participate in the lower-turnout November 2013 election. A total of 514 voters

1. Source: California Department of Finance Estimate, 2012.

Introduction
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 completed the survey by telephone or online at a secure, password protected survey website hosted by True North. The survey was administered between June 8 and June 19, 2013 and the average interview lasted 15 minutes.

ORGANIZATION OF REPORT This report is designed to meet the needs of readers who prefer a summary of the findings as well as those who are interested in the details of the results.

For those who seek an overview of the findings, the sections titled Just the Facts and Conclusions are for you. They provide a summary of the most important factual findings of the survey in bullet-point format and a discussion of their implications. For the interested reader, this section is followed by a more detailed question-by-question discussion of the results from the survey by topic area (see Table of Contents), as well as a description of the methodology employed for collecting and analyzing the data. And, for the truly ambitious reader, the questionnaire used for the interviews is contained at the back of this report and a complete set of crosstabulations for the survey results is contained in Appendix A.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS True North thanks the Town of Atherton for the opportunity to conduct the study, as well as the subcommittee's contributions to the design of the survey. Their collective expertise, insight, and local knowledge improved the overall quality of the research presented here.

DISCLAIMER The statements and conclusions in this report are those of the authors (Dr. Timothy McLarney and Richard Sarles) at True North Research, Inc. and not necessarily those of the Town of Atherton. Any errors and omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

ABOUT TRUE NORTH True North is a full-service survey research firm that is dedicated to providing public agencies with a clear understanding of the opinions, perceptions, priorities and concerns of their residents and voters. Through designing and implementing scientific surveys, focus groups and one-on-one interviews, as well as expert interpretation of the findings, True North helps its clients to move with confidence when making strategic decisions in a variety of areas—such as planning, policy evaluation, performance management, organizational development, establishing fiscal priorities, passing revenue measures, and developing effective public information campaigns.

During their careers, Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarles have designed and conducted over 800 survey research studies for public agencies—including more than 300 studies for California municipalities and more than 300 revenue measure feasibility studies. Of the measures that have gone to ballot based on Dr. McLarney’s recommendation, more than 95% have been successful. In total, the research that Dr. McLarney has conducted has led to over $22 billion in successful local revenue measures.

Just the Facts
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

J UST THE F ACTS
The following section is an outline of the main factual findings from the survey. For the reader’s convenience, we have organized the findings according to the section titles used in the body of this report. Thus, if you would like to learn more about a particular finding, simply turn to the appropriate report section.

QUALITY OF LIFE & TOWN SERVICES
• Ninety-three percent (93%) of respondents shared favorable opinions of the quality of life in Atherton, with 60% reporting it is excellent and 33% stating it is good. An additional 5% of residents indicated that the quality of life in the town is fair, whereas 0% used poor or very poor to describe the quality of life in Atherton and 1% were unsure. • When asked what changes the Town government could make to improve the quality of life in Atherton, the most common response to this question was that no changes were needed or they could not think of a needed improvement (22%), followed by addressing traffic issues (14%), improving some aspect of government/leadership (12%), improving public safety (10%), and improving trails, sidewalks and/or bike paths in the community (6%). • More than eight-in-ten respondents (82%) indicated that they were satisfied with the Town’s efforts to provide municipal services, with 37% stating that they were very satisfied. Approximately 13% of voters reported that they were dissatisfied in this respect, whereas 4% were unsure or unwilling to state their opinion.

INITIAL BALLOT TEST
• With only the information provided in the ballot language, 75% of respondents indicated they would definitely or probably support the proposed parcel tax renewal measure at this stage in the survey, whereas 19% stated they would oppose the measure and 6% were unsure or unwilling to share their vote choice.
• After being informed that the existing parcel tax has been in place for several decades, has been periodically renewed by voters at cost of approximately $750 per year for the typical home, and the proposed measure would extend (but not increase) the parcel tax, aggregate support for the measure remained steady at 75%.
• Those who opposed the measure at this point in the survey were most likely to cite a concern about taxes already being too high, a perception that the Town needs to improve how it manages its budget and/or reduce spending, or a need for more information as the reasons for their position.

PROGRAMS & PROJECTS
• Among the projects and services that could be funded by the measure, voters most strongly favored funding the repair and maintenance of local streets and roads (93% strongly or somewhat favor), followed closely by quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies (90%), the repair and improvement of storm drains and flood control (82%), and police and crime prevention services (81%).

Just the Facts
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

POSITIVE ARGUMENTS
When presented with arguments in favor of the measure, voters found the following arguments to be the most persuasive:
• All money raised by this measure will be spent locally to continue providing quality services in our community. It cannot be taken away by the State or be used for other purposes. • This measure will allow the Town to keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to streets and infrastructure. If we don't take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future.
• The parcel tax has provided the Town with an important source of funding for several decades. Nearly 20% of the Town's total annual budget comes from the parcel tax.

INTERIM BALLOT TEST
• After being presented with services and capital improvements that could be funded as well as arguments in favor of the measure, support for the parcel tax renewal increased slightly to 77%, with 49% of voters indicating that they would definitely vote yes on the measure.

Approximately 19% of respondents opposed the measure at this point in the survey, and an additional 4% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice.

NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
Of the arguments in opposition to the measure, voters found the following arguments to be the most persuasive:
• Now that the recession is over the economy is improving, the amount of money the Town receives from property taxes is increasing. We don't need to extend the parcel tax. • Government agencies need to live within their means, just like everyone else. We should not support this tax.
• The Town can't be trusted with this tax. They will mismanage the money.

FINAL BALLOT TEST
• After being presented with services that could be funded as well as arguments in favor and opposed to the measure, support for the parcel tax measure was found among 75% of voters, with 46% indicating that they would definitely support the measure. Approximately 20% of respondents were opposed to the measure at the Final Ballot Test, and 6% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice.

Conclusions
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

C ONCLUSIONS
The bulk of this report is devoted to conveying the details of the study findings. In this section, however, we attempt to ‘see the forest through the trees’ and note how the collective results of the survey answer the key questions that motivated the research. The following conclusions are based on True North’s interpretations of the survey results and the firm’s collective experience conducting revenue measure studies for public agencies throughout the State.

Should the Town of
Atherton proceed with
plans to place a parcel
tax renewal measure on
a future ballot?
Yes. Atherton voters have a high opinion of the quality of life in the town as well as the Town’s performance in providing municipal services.

These sentiments combine to create strong support for a measure to renew the existing parcel tax for a period of six years to fund police and crime prevention services, neighborhood public safety patrols, emergency preparedness, street repair and maintenance, and capital infrastructure improvements. The results of this feasibility study suggest that, if crafted appropriately and combined with an effective public education effort, the proposed parcel tax renewal measure has a very good chance of being supported by the necessary proportion of voters.

Having recommended that the Town move forward, it is important to note that this recommendation to take the next steps toward placing a measure on the ballot comes with several qualifications and conditions.

Indeed, although the results are promising, all parcel tax measures must overcome challenges prior to being successful. The proposed measure is no exception. The following paragraphs discuss some of the challenges and the next steps that True North recommends.

How does the election
date affect support for
the proposed measure?
Different election dates have different turnouts, different electorates, and—by extension—different opportunities and challenges. When compared to the November 2014 election, for example, the November 2013 and June 2014 election turnouts will be much lower and have a somewhat different demographic profile. In many communities, these demographic differences often translate into different levels of natural support for a proposed tax measure.

With respect to the proposed parcel tax renewal measure, however, Atherton voters are like-minded in their support for the renewal regardless of their voting propensity. Among the larger number of voters (3,577) expected to participate in the November 2014 election, 75% supported the parcel tax measure on the natural. The corresponding figure among high propensity voters (1,775) who are expected to participate in the lower-turnout November 2013 election was similar (78%).

Although it requires an aggressive schedule to prepare a ballot resolution and related materials, as well as conduct an effective community outreach effort, True North recommends that the Town pursue a November 2013 ballot election. This approach would also allow the Town a sec- Conclusions
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 ond election opportunity (June 2014) to renew the parcel tax if the measure should fail in November 2013 prior to the parcel tax expiring.

How might public education affect support for
the proposed measure?
As noted in the body of this report, individuals’ opinions about revenue measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of information presented to the public on a measure has been limited. Thus, in addition to gauging current support for the measure, one of the goals of this study was to explore how the introduction of additional information about the measure may affect voters’ opinions about the parcel tax.

It is clear from the survey results that voters’ opinions about the proposed parcel tax measure are somewhat sensitive to the nature—and amount—of information that they have about the measure. Information about the specific services and capital improvements that could be funded by the parcel tax, as well as arguments in favor of the measure, were found by many voters to be compelling reasons to support the measure. Moreover, this information played an important role in preventing a significant erosion of support for the measure once respondents were exposed to the types of opposition arguments they will likely encounter during an election cycle.

Accordingly, one of the keys to building and sustaining support for the parcel tax measure will be the presence of an effective, well-organized public education effort that focuses on the need for the measure as well as the many benefits that it will bring. Indeed, although aggregate support for the parcel tax renewal exceeded the two-thirds level, it is important to recognize that less than half (47%) of voters indicated that they would definitely support the measure on the natural.

How might the economic or political climate alter support for the measure?
An important component of any ballot measure’s potential for success is the economic and political climate surrounding the election. Ongoing concerns about the housing market, unemployment, and lingering effects of the recession have combined to create an economic and political climate that is not as favorable to revenue measures as it was in prerecession years.

The results of this study and the conclusions noted above must be viewed in light of the current times. Indeed, support for the proposed parcel tax measure was strong despite the general economic malaise, which speaks volumes about the value that Atherton voters place on having high quality municipal services. Nevertheless, it is important to keep in mind that this poll is a snapshot in time. Should the economy and/or political climate continue to improve, support for the measure—and the potential effectiveness of a positive education campaign—could increase considerably. Conversely, negative economic and/or political developments, especially at the local level, could dampen support for the measure below what was recorded in this study.

Quality of Life & Town Services
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Q UALITY OF L IFE & T OWN S ERVICES
The opening series of questions in the survey were designed to profile voters’ opinions regarding the quality of life in Atherton, their ideas for changes the Town could implement to improve the quality of life in Atherton, as well as their assessment of the Town’s overall performance in providing municipal services.

OVERALL QUALITY OF LIFE At the outset of the interview, respondents were asked to rate the overall quality of life in Atherton using a five-point scale of excellent, good, fair, poor, or very poor. As shown in Figure 1 below, 93% of respondents shared favorable opinions of the quality of life in Atherton, with 60% reporting it is excellent and 33% stating it is good. An additional 5% of residents indicated that the quality of life in the town is fair, whereas 0% used poor or very poor to describe the quality of life in Atherton and 1% were unsure.

Question 2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Atherton? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor? FIGURE 1 QUALITY OF LIFE For the interested reader, Figures 2 and 3
present the responses to this question by
length of residence, parcel size, gender, age
and party identification. Although there were
some differences in the perceived quality of
life across subgroups, the most striking pattern in the figures is the relative consistency of positive opinions. Regardless of subgroup category, voters generally held very positive opinions regarding the quality of life in Atherton.

FIGURE 2 QUALITY OF LIFE BY YEARS IN ATHERTON, PARCEL SIZE & GENDER Fair

5.2 Very poor

0.0 Excellent

60.2 Good

33.2 Poor

0.0 Not sure

1.4 51.0

64.1 64.3

55.5 26.1

32.0 30.8

36.0 Excellent

62.8 52.2

63.4 60.9
Good

33.6 32.9 34.7

33.3 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Less than 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 or more Less than half
acre
Half acre or
more
Male Female
Years in Atherton (Q1) Parcel Size (QD3) Gender
% Respondents
Quality of Life & Town Services
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 FIGURE 3 QUALITY OF LIFE BY AGE & PARTY
WAYS TO IMPROVE QUALITY OF LIFE The next question in the opening series asked respondents to indicate one thing that the town government could change to make Atherton a better place to live, now and in the future. Question 3 was asked in an open-ended manner, which allowed respondents to mention any change that came to mind without be prompted by or restricted to a particular list of options. True North later reviewed the verbatim responses and grouped them into the categories shown below in Figure 4.

Question 3 If the Town government could change one thing to make Atherton a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see? FIGURE 4 CHANGES TO IMPROVE ATHERTON

66.2 60.1

50.7 27.4

32.3 44.6

63.4 64.4

57.5 Excellent

40.3 39.3 29.3 30.0
Good

48.2 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
18 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Democrat Republican Other / DTS Age Party
% Respondents

1.0 1.0

1.1 1.2

1.5 1.5

1.5 1.6

1.7 1.8

2.1 2.4

2.5 2.7

2.7 3.0

3.1 3.1

3.8 4.2

5.3 5.3

10.2 11.9

14.4 21.6

2.1 1.8

6.4 05 10 15 20 25
Address barking dog complaints
Improve staff
Fewer restrictions on construction, permitting
Fewer legal conflicts with residents
Reduce taxes
Improve communication, outreach efforts
Develop new town center
Improve public transit
Improve permitting process
Improve schools, education
Improve quality, speed of public services
Improve parking
Bury power, telephone cables
Plant trees
Improve stormwater drainage
Improve streets, roads
Improve sense of community, neighborhoods
Add, improve libraries
Improve parks
Reduce noise pollution
Improve trash disposal services
Improve street lighting
Improve budgeting, spending
More restrictions, enforcement on
Improve trails, sidewalks, bike paths
Improve public safety
Improve government, leadership
Address traffic issues
No changes / Cannot think of anything
% Respondents
Quality of Life & Town Services
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 The most common response to this question was that no changes were needed or they could not think of a needed improvement (22%)—both of which are indicative of a respondent who does not perceive any pressing problems in the Town that should be addressed by local government.

Among the specific improvements that were cited, the most common were addressing traffic issues (14%), improving some aspect of government/leadership (12%), improving public safety (10%), and improving trails, sidewalks and/or bike paths in the community (6%).

OVERALL SATISFACTION WITH TOWN SERVICES The final question in this series asked respondents if, overall, they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the Town of Atherton is doing to provide municipal services. Because this question does not reference a specific program, facility, or service and requested that the respondent consider the Town’s performance in general, the findings of this question may be regarded as an overall performance rating for the Town.

Question 4 Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the Town of Atherton is doing to provide city services? FIGURE 5 OVERALL SATISFACTION As shown in Figure 5, more than eight-in-ten
respondents (82%) indicated that they were
satisfied with the Town’s efforts to provide
municipal services, with 37% stating that they
were very satisfied. Approximately 13% of voters reported that they were dissatisfied in this respect, whereas 4% were unsure or unwilling
to state their opinion. At least 70% of Atherton residents in every identified subgroup indicated that they were satisfied with the
Town’s overall performance in providing
municipal services (see Figures 6 & 7).

FIGURE 6 OVERALL SATISFACTION BY YEARS IN ATHERTON, PARCEL SIZE & GENDER Very dissatisfied

4.7 Somewhat
satisfied

45.1 Very satisfied

37.1 Not sure

4.3 Somewhat
dissatisfied

8.7 39.5 37.0 35.1 39.5

31.3 46.7 48.2 41.4

36.9 31.7 35.7
Very
satisfied

47.6 42.8 52.0 45.6
Smwt
satisfied

36.6 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Less than 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 or more Less than half
acre
Half acre or
more
Male Female
Years in Atherton (Q1) Parcel Size (QD3) Gender
% Respondents
Quality of Life & Town Services
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 FIGURE 7 OVERALL SATISFACTION BY AGE & PARTY

46.6 35.2

26.5 40.2

45.9 51.0
Very
satisfied

51.0 26.5 32.9 38.0
Smwt
satisfied

24.3 47.4

48.2 57.0
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
18 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Democrat Republican Other / DTS Age Party
% Respondents
Initial Ballot Test
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

I NITIAL B ALLOT T EST
The primary research objective of this survey was to estimate voters’ support for a measure that would extend Atherton’s expiring parcel tax (at the current tax rate) to continue funding for police and crime prevention services, neighborhood public safety patrols, emergency preparedness, street repair and maintenance, and capital infrastructure improvements. To this end, Question 5 was designed to take an early assessment of voters’ support for the proposed measure.

The motivation for placing Question 5 up-front in the survey is twofold. First, voter support for a measure can often depend on the amount of information they have about a measure. At this point in the survey, the respondent has not been provided information about the proposed measure beyond what is presented in the ballot language. This situation is analogous to a voter casting a ballot with limited knowledge about the measure, such as what might occur in the absence of an effective education campaign. Question 5, also known as the Initial Ballot Test, is thus a good measure of voter support for the proposed measure as it is today. Because the Initial Ballot Test provides a gauge of ‘uninformed’ support for the measure, it also serves a second purpose in that it provides a useful baseline from which to judge the impact of various information items conveyed later in the survey on voter support for the measure.

Question 5 Later this year, voters in Atherton may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure.

Let me read you a summary of the measure. In order to continue funding for police and crime prevention services; neighborhood public safety patrols; emergency preparedness; street repair and maintenance; and capital infrastructure improvements shall the Town of Atherton extend its expiring parcel tax for six years without raising the tax rate and with all funds staying local? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 8 INITIAL BALLOT TEST
Figure 8 presents the results of the Initial
Ballot Test among all 514 respondents who
are likely to participate in the November
2014 election. Overall, 75% of respondents
indicated they would definitely or probably
support the measure at this stage in the survey, whereas 19% stated they would oppose the measure and 6% were unsure or unwilling to share their vote choice. The support levels recorded at the Initial Ballot Test were
approximately 8% greater than the twothirds supermajority required for passage of a parcel tax under California law.

SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS Table 1 on the next page shows how support for the parcel tax renewal measure at the Initial Ballot Test varied by key demographic variables. The blue column (Approximate % of Voter Universe) indicates the percentage of the likely November 2014 electorate that each subgroup category comprises. As noted in the table, support for the proposed parcel tax renewal measure was widespread, exceeding a majority in every identified subgroup and exceeding two-thirds in most. Moreover, the levels of support among high propensity voters who Probably no

7.4 Not sure

5.4 Definitely yes

46.8 Probably yes

28.6 Definitely no

11.3 Refused

0.5 Initial Ballot Test
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 are likely to participate in the lower turnout November 2013 election were similar to those expressed by the larger universe of voters who are expected to participate in the higher turnout November 2014 election.

TABLE 1 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST SUPPORT WITH RENEWAL CLARIFICATION Naturally, many voters in the town may not be aware that the existing parcel tax has been in place for several decades and has been periodically renewed by voters at cost of approximately $750 per year for the typical home owner. The objective of Question 6 was to make respondents aware of this fact, as well as clarify that the proposed measure would extend the existing parcel tax for a period of six years without raising the rate.

With the aforementioned clarification, aggregate support for the measure remained stable at 75%, although the percentage of voters who indicated they would definitely support the measure increased by 3% to 50% (see Figure 9 on the next page). Opposition to the measure at this point in the survey was confined to approximately 19% of respondents, and an additional 7% stated that they were unsure or unwilling to share their vote choice.

Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes % Not sure
Overall 100 75.4 5.4
Less than 5 10 78.9 4.0
5 to 9 14 68.3 9.1
10 to 14 12 77.1 5.1
15 or more 63 76.1 4.9
Less than half acre 13 74.2 2.2
Half acre or more 87 77.9 6.0
Male 53 75.6 3.9
Female 47 75.2 7.1
18 to 39 13 64.4 0.0
40 to 49 12 70.3 7.2
50 to 64 35 77.1 7.5
65 or older 40 78.6 5.1
2013 to 2009 21 69.0 2.9
2008 to 2005 10 51.3 8.0
2004 to 2001 9 90.0 1.3
2000 or before 61 79.4 6.4
Democrat 32 80.9 6.8
Republican 47 72.9 4.4
Other / DTS 21 72.3 5.7
Single dem 11 82.1 6.5
Dual dem 11 85.9 5.9
Single rep 12 70.0 4.7
Dual rep 21 75.1 5.9
Other 10 78.4 6.2
Mixed 35 70.9 4.6
Yes 86 74.8 5.4
No 14 79.2 5.8
Yes 71 75.0 5.0
No 29 76.3 6.6
Yes 50 78.0 5.5
No 50 72.8 5.3
Yes 79 75.0 4.8
No 21 76.8 7.8
Homeowner on Voter File
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely November 2013
Voter
Likely June 2014 Voter
Age
Registration Year
Party
Household Party Type
Years in Atherton (Q1)
Parcel Size (QD3)
Gender
Initial Ballot Test
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Question 6 Voters approved a parcel tax for the Town of Atherton several decades ago and have periodically renewed the measure by popular vote. The parcel tax costs the typical home owner about $750 per year. The proposed measure I just described would NOT raise the parcel tax. It would only extend the current tax for six more years. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
FIGURE 9 INITIAL BALLOT TEST WITH EXTENSION INFORMATION REASONS FOR OPPOSING MEASURE Respondents who opposed the measure at Question 6 were subsequently asked if there was a particular reason for their position. Question 7 was asked in an open-ended manner, thereby allowing respondents to mention any reason that came to mind without being prompted by or restricted to a particular list of options. True North later reviewed the verbatim responses and grouped them into the categories shown in Figure 10.

The most frequently-mentioned reasons for opposing the parcel tax were a concern about taxes already being too high (27%), a perception that the Town needs to improve how it manages its budget and/or reduce spending (19%), and a need for more information (10%).

Question 7 Is there a particular reason why you do not support the measure I just described? FIGURE 10 REASONS FOR NOT SUPPORTING MEASURE
Refused

0.8 Definitely no

9.9 Probably yes

25.4 Definitely yes

50.0 Not sure

5.3 Probably no

8.6 0.6

2.2 2.8

6.2 8.6

8.8 10.1

14.0 19.1

27.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Too much money spent on lawyers, litigation
Do not trust government, leadership
Do not support details of measure
Not sure why additional funding is needed
Not sure / No particular reason
Town salaries, compensation, pensions too high
Need more information
Prefer not to answer
Town needs to improve budgeting, reduce spending
Taxes already too high
% Respondents Who Do Not Support Measure
Programs & Projects
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

P ROGRAMS & P ROJECTS
The ballot language presented in Question 5 indicated that the proposed parcel tax measure would be used to continue funding for police and crime prevention services, neighborhood public safety patrols, emergency preparedness, street repair and maintenance, and capital infrastructure improvements. The purpose of Question 8 was to provide respondents with the full range of programs and improvements that may be funded by the proposed measure, and to identify which of these improvements voters most favored funding with parcel tax proceeds.

After reading each item that may be funded by the measure, respondents were asked if they would favor or oppose spending some of the money on that particular item assuming that the measure passes. Truncated descriptions of the items tested, as well as voters’ responses, are shown in Figure 11 below.2
Question 8 The measure we've been discussing would continue funding for a variety of services and infrastructure projects in the Town. If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose continuing to use some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion? FIGURE 11 PROGRAMS & PROJECTS
Overall, the item that resonated with the largest percentage of respondents was repairing and maintaining local streets and roads (93% strongly or somewhat favor), followed closely by maintaining quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies (90%), repairing and improving storm drains and flood control (82%), and providing police and crime prevention services (81%). At the other end of the spectrum, voters were somewhat less enthused with the prospect of using parcel tax proceeds to improve code enforcement services (56%).

2. For the full text of the items tested, turn to Question 8 in Questionnaire & Toplines on page 28.

26.0 34.2

28.0 39.9

62.4 42.9

73.1 58.1

30.0 30.1

41.8 38.2

18.9 39.3

16.6 34.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Improve code enforcement
Provide neighborhood public safety patrols
Make capital infrastructure improvements
Ensure that the Town is prepared for emergencies
Provide police and crime prevention services
Repair and improve storm drains and flood control
Maintain quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies
Repair and maintain local streets and roads
Q8h Q8b Q8e Q8c Q8a Q8g Q8f Q8d
% Respondents
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
Programs & Projects
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 SPENDING PROJECT RATINGS BY SUBGROUP Table 2 presents the top five projects (showing the percentage of respondents who strongly favor each) by position at the Initial Ballot Test. Not surprisingly, individuals who initially opposed the measure were generally less likely to favor spending money on a given project or service when compared with supporters and those who were initially undecided. Nevertheless, initial supporters, opponents, and the undecided did agree on all five of the top five priorities for funding.

TABLE 2 TOP PROGRAMS & PROJECTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5) Item Program or Project Summary
% Strongly
Favor
Q8f Maintain quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 82
Q8a Provide police and crime prevention services 74
Q8d Repair and maintain local streets and roads 68
Q8g Repair and improve storm drains and flood control 49 Q8c Ensure that the Town is prepared for emergencies 48 Q8f Maintain quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 37
Q8d Repair and maintain local streets and roads 25
Q8g Repair and improve storm drains and flood control 20 Q8a Provide police and crime prevention services 20
Q8c Ensure that the Town is prepared for emergencies 11 Q8f Maintain quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 79
Q8a Provide police and crime prevention services 58
Q8d Repair and maintain local streets and roads 45
Q8g Repair and improve storm drains and flood control 40 Q8c Ensure that the Town is prepared for emergencies 34 Probably or
Definitely Yes
(n = 388)
Probably or
Definitely No
(n = 96)
Not Sure
(n =28)
Positive Arguments
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

P OSITIVE A RGUMENTS
Ballot measures do not succeed or fail in a political vacuum. During an election cycle, proponents of a measure will present arguments to try to persuade voters to support a measure, just as opponents will present arguments to achieve the opposite goal. The objective of Question 9 was thus to present respondents with arguments in favor of the proposed measure and identify whether they felt the arguments were convincing reasons to support it. Arguments in opposition to the measure were also presented and will be discussed later in this report (see Negative Arguments on page 20). Within each series, specific arguments were administered in random order to avoid a systematic position bias.

Question 9 Supporters of the measure may say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? FIGURE 12 POSITIVE ARGUMENTS
Figure 12 above presents the truncated positive arguments tested, as well as voters’ reactions to the arguments. The arguments are ranked from most convincing to least convincing based on the percentage of respondents who indicated that the argument was either a ‘very convincing’ or ‘somewhat convincing’ reason to support the measure. Using this methodology, the most compelling positive argument was: All money raised by this measure will be spent locally to continue providing quality services in our community. It cannot be taken away by the State or be used for other purposes (78%), This measure will allow the Town to keep up with basic repairs and maintenance to streets and infrastructure. If we don't take care of it now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair in the future (74%), and The parcel tax has provided the Town with an important source of funding for several decades. Nearly 20% of the Town's total annual budget comes from the parcel tax (73%).

POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 3 lists the top five most convincing positive arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited it as very convincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test. The most striking pattern in the table is that the positive arguments resonated with a much higher percentage of voters who were initially inclined to support the measure when compared with voters who initially opposed the

37.7 49.6

39.5 41.8

39.1 49.8

28.4 20.6

31.8 31.4

35.1 28.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
The parcel tax is 100% tax deductible for home owners
Parcel tax expiration means cuts to police, public safety, street maintenance Measure will help protect our quality of life, our property values Nearly 20% of the Town’s total annual budget comes from parcel tax Maintenance now is less expensive than future repairs
All money raised by this measure will be spent locally
Q9f Q9e Q9b Q9d Q9c Q9a
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
Positive Arguments
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 measure or were unsure. Nevertheless, three arguments were ranked among the top five most compelling by all three groups.

TABLE 3 TOP POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5) Item Positive Argument Summary
% Very
Convincing
Q9e Parcel tax expiration means cuts to police, public safety, street maintenance 62 Q9a All money raised by this measure will be spent locally 62 Q9d Nearly 20% of the Town’s total annual budget comes from parcel tax 52 Q9c Maintenance now is less expensive than future repairs 49 Q9b Measure will help protect our quality of life, our property values 49 Q9f The parcel tax is 100% tax deductible for home owners 14 Q9a All money raised by this measure will be spent locally 8 Q9e Parcel tax expiration means cuts to police, public safety, street maintenance 7 Q9b Measure will help protect our quality of life, our property values 6 Q9c Maintenance now is less expensive than future repairs 6 Q9d Nearly 20% of the Town’s total annual budget comes from parcel tax 36 Q9a All money raised by this measure will be spent locally 32 Q9b Measure will help protect our quality of life, our property values 32 Q9e Parcel tax expiration means cuts to police, public safety, street maintenance 28 Q9f The parcel tax is 100% tax deductible for home owners 28 Probably or
Definitely Yes
(n = 388)
Probably or
Definitely No
(n = 96)
Not Sure
(n =28)
Interim Ballot Test
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

I NTERIM B ALLOT T EST
After exposing respondents to the types of positive arguments they may encounter during an election cycle, the survey again presented voters with the ballot language used previously to gauge how their support for the proposed parcel tax measure may have changed. As shown in Figure 13, overall support for the measure among voters increased slightly to 77%, with 49% of voters indicating that they would definitely vote yes on the measure. Approximately 19% of respondents opposed the measure at this point in the survey, and an additional 4% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice.

Question 10 Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it again. In order to continue funding for police and crime prevention services; neighborhood public safety patrols; emergency preparedness; street repair and maintenance; and capital infrastructure improvements shall the Town of Atherton extend its expiring parcel tax for six years without raising the tax rate and with all funds staying local? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
FIGURE 13 INTERIM BALLOT TEST
SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS Table 4 on the next page shows how support for the measure at this point in the survey varied by key voter subgroups, as well as the percentage change in subgroup support when compared with the Initial Ballot Test. Positive differences appear in green, whereas negative differences appear in red. As shown in the table, support for the parcel tax generally changed by small amounts (+/- 4% or less) for most subgroups between the Initial and Interim Ballot Test. The largest net gains in support were found among those who had lived in Atherton between five and nine years, individuals who registered to vote in Atherton between 2005 and 2008, and voters under the age of 40.

Probably no

8.9 Not sure

3.3 Definitely yes

49.4 Probably yes

27.1 Definitely no

10.2 Refused

1.0 Interim Ballot Test
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 TABLE 4 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INTERIM BALLOT TEST Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes
Change From
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5)
Overall 100 76.5 +1.1
Less than 5 10 82.8 +3.9
5 to 9 14 75.1 +6.8
10 to 14 12 81.9 +4.8
15 or more 63 74.8 -1.3
Less than half acre 13 74.2 +0.0
Half acre or more 87 79.7 +1.8
Male 53 77.0 +1.4
Female 47 75.9 +0.8
18 to 39 13 69.5 +5.0
40 to 49 12 74.3 +4.0
50 to 64 35 77.4 +0.3
65 or older 40 78.3 -0.3
2013 to 2009 21 72.2 +3.3
2008 to 2005 10 60.2 +8.9
2004 to 2001 9 87.3 -2.7
2000 or before 61 79.1 -0.4
Democrat 32 81.4 +0.5
Republican 47 73.7 +0.8
Other / DTS 21 75.1 +2.8
Single dem 11 77.9 -4.2
Dual dem 11 90.0 +4.1
Single rep 12 69.8 -0.2
Dual rep 21 76.4 +1.3
Other 10 80.3 +2.0
Mixed 35 72.8 +2.0
Yes 86 76.1 +1.4
No 14 78.8 -0.4
Yes 71 76.1 +1.1
No 29 77.4 +1.1
Yes 50 77.7 -0.4
No 50 75.4 +2.6
Yes 79 75.6 +0.6
No 21 79.9 +3.1
Years in Atherton (Q1)
Parcel Size (QD3)
Gender
Age
Registration Year
Party
Household Party Type
Homeowner on Voter File
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely November 2013
Voter
Likely June 2014 Voter
Negative Arguments
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

N EGATIVE A RGUMENTS
Whereas Question 9 presented respondents with arguments in favor of the measure, Question 11 presented respondents with arguments designed to elicit opposition to the measure. In the case of Question 11, however, respondents were asked whether they felt that the argument was a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to oppose the measure.

The arguments tested, as well as voters’ opinions about the arguments, are presented in Figure

14. Question 11 Opponents of the measure may say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure? FIGURE 14 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
Among the negative arguments tested, the most compelling were: Now that the recession is over the economy is improving, the amount of money the Town receives from property taxes is increasing. We don't need to extend the parcel tax (55%), Government agencies need to live within their means, just like everyone else. We should not support this tax (50%), and The Town can't be trusted with this tax. They will mismanage the money (43%).

NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 5 ranks the negative arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited each as very convincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test.

TABLE 5 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST

10.6 13.6

20.2 17.4

16.4 29.8

29.7 37.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
With no senior exemption, measure is unfair to seniors
Town can’t be trusted with this tax
Government agencies need to live within their means like everyone Economy improving, Town receiving more money from property taxes Q11d Q11c Q11b Q11a
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
Position at
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5) Item Negative Argument Summary
% Very
Convincing
Q11a Economy improving, Town receiving more money from property taxes 11 Q11b Government agencies need to live within their means like everyone 9 Q11d With no senior exemption, measure is unfair to seniors 7 Q11c Town can’t be trusted with this tax 5
Q11b Government agencies need to live within their means like everyone 67 Q11c Town can’t be trusted with this tax 46
Q11a Economy improving, Town receiving more money from property taxes 45 Q11d With no senior exemption, measure is unfair to seniors 26 Q11b Government agencies need to live within their means like everyone 20 Q11a Economy improving, Town receiving more money from property taxes 18 Q11c Town can’t be trusted with this tax 16
Q11d With no senior exemption, measure is unfair to seniors 6 Probably or
Definitely Yes
(n = 388)
Probably or
Definitely No
(n = 96)
Not Sure
(n =28)
Final Ballot Test
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

F INAL B ALLOT T EST
Voters’ opinions about ballot measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of information presented to the public on a measure has been limited. An important goal of the survey was thus to gauge how voters’ opinions about the proposed measure may be affected by the information they could encounter during the course of an election cycle. After providing respondents with the wording of the proposed measure, services that could be funded by the measure, as well as arguments in favor and against the proposal, respondents were again asked whether they would vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the proposed parcel tax renewal measure.

Question 12 Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it one more time. In order to continue funding for police and crime prevention services; neighborhood public safety patrols; emergency preparedness; street repair and maintenance; and capital infrastructure improvements shall the Town of Atherton extend its expiring parcel tax for six years without raising the tax rate and with all funds staying local? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
FIGURE 15 FINAL BALLOT TEST
At this point in the survey, support for the parcel tax measure was found among 75% of voters, with 46% indicating that they would definitely support the measure. Approximately 20% of respondents were opposed to the measure at the Final Ballot Test, and 6% were unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice.

Probably no

9.1 Not sure

4.7 Definitely yes

46.4 Probably yes

28.1 Definitely no

10.5 Refused

1.2 Change in Support
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

C HANGE IN S UPPORT
Table 6 provides a closer look at how support for the proposed parcel tax measure changed over the course of the interview by calculating the difference in support between the Initial, Interim, and Final Ballot Tests within various subgroups of voters. The percentage of support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test is shown in the column with the heading % Probably or Definitely Yes. The columns to the right show the difference between the Final and the Initial, and the Final and Interim Ballot Tests. Positive differences appear in green, whereas negative differences appear in red.

TABLE 6 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT FINAL BALLOT TEST As expected, voters generally responded to the negative arguments with a reduction in their support for the parcel tax measure when compared with the levels recorded at the Interim Ballot Test. The general trend over the course of the entire survey (Initial to Final Ballot Test), however, was mixed—with moderate decreases (-5% or less) in some groups being offset by modest increases in others.

Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes
Change From
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5)
Change From
Interim Ballot
Test (Q10)
Overall 100 74.6 -0.8 -1.9
Less than 5 10 81.1 +2.1 -1.7
5 to 9 14 76.2 +7.9 +1.1
10 to 14 12 80.3 +3.2 -1.6
15 or more 63 72.0 -4.0 -2.7
Less than half acre 13 73.3 -1.0 -1.0
Half acre or more 87 77.4 -0.5 -2.3
Male 53 76.0 +0.4 -1.0
Female 47 72.9 -2.2 -3.0
18 to 39 13 60.5 -4.0 -9.0
40 to 49 12 72.6 +2.3 -1.7
50 to 64 35 77.3 +0.2 -0.1
65 or older 40 76.9 -1.7 -1.4
2013 to 2009 21 64.2 -4.7 -8.0
2008 to 2005 10 61.7 +10.4 +1.5
2004 to 2001 9 87.3 -2.7 No change
2000 or before 61 78.3 -1.1 -0.8
Democrat 32 81.7 +0.8 +0.3
Republican 47 72.8 -0.1 -0.9
Other / DTS 21 67.2 -5.1 -7.9
Single dem 11 76.4 -5.7 -1.5
Dual dem 11 91.5 +5.5 +1.5
Single rep 12 68.6 -1.4 -1.2
Dual rep 21 75.1 -0.0 -1.3
Other 10 80.3 +2.0 -0.0
Mixed 35 68.4 -2.5 -4.4
Yes 86 73.9 -0.9 -2.2
No 14 78.7 -0.4 -0.1
Yes 71 75.5 +0.5 -0.6
No 29 72.2 -4.1 -5.2
Yes 50 77.1 -1.0 -0.6
No 50 72.1 -0.7 -3.3
Yes 79 73.7 -1.3 -1.9
No 21 77.7 +0.9 -2.2
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely November 2013
Voter
Likely June 2014 Voter
Registration Year
Party
Household Party Type
Homeowner on Voter File
Years in Atherton (Q1)
Parcel Size (QD3)
Gender
Age
Change in Support
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Whereas Table 6 displays change in support for the measure over the course of the interview at the group level, Table 7 displays the individual-level changes that occurred between the Initial and Final Ballot Tests for the measure. On the left side of the table is shown each of the response options to the Initial Ballot Test and the percentage of respondents in each group. The cells in the body of the table depict movement within each response group (row) based on the information provided throughout the course of the survey as recorded by the Final Ballot Test. For example, in the first row we see that of the 46.8% of respondents who indicated that they would definitely support the measure at the Initial Ballot Test, 41.0% also indicated that they would definitely support the measure at the Final Ballot Test. Approximately 4.7% moved to the probably support group, 0.3% moved to the probably oppose group, 0.0% moved to the definitely oppose group, and 0.9% percent stated they were now unsure of their vote choice.

To ease interpretation of the table, the cells are color coded. Red shaded cells indicate declining support, green shaded cells indicate increasing support, whereas white cells indicate no movement. Moreover, within the cells, a white font indicates a fundamental change in the vote: from yes to no, no to yes, or not sure to either yes or no.

TABLE 7 MOVEMENT BETWEEN INITIAL & FINAL BALLOT TESTS
As one might expect, the information conveyed in the survey had the greatest impact on individuals who either weren’t sure about how they would vote at the Initial Ballot Test or were tentative in their vote choice (probably yes or probably no). Moreover, Table 7 makes clear that although the information did impact some voters, it did not do so in a consistent way for all respondents.

Some respondents found the information conveyed during the course of the interview to be a reason to become more supportive of the measure, whereas a similar percentage found the same information to be a reason to be less supportive. Despite 10% of respondents making a fundamental3 shift in their opinion about the measure over the course of the interview, the net impact is that support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test was just 1% lower than support at the Initial Ballot Test.

3. This is, they changed from a position of support, opposition or undecided at the Initial Ballot Test to a different position at the Final Ballot Test.

Definitely
support
Probably
support
Probably
oppose
Definitely
oppose Not sure
Definitely support 46.8% 41.0% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9%
Probably support 28.6% 4.6% 20.5% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0%
Probably oppose 7.4% 0.1% 1.2% 5.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Definitely oppose 11.3% 0.0% 0.4% 2.0% 8.9% 0.0%
Not sure 5.9% 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2.2%
Initial Ballot Test (Q5)
Final Ballot Test (Q12)
Background & Demographics
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 B ACKGROUND & D EMOGRAPHICS TABLE 8 DEMOGRAPHICS OF SAMPLE In addition to questions directly related to the proposed measure, the study collected basic demographic information about respondents and their households. Some of this information was gathered
during the interview, although much of it was collected from the voter file. The profile of the likely November 2014 voter sample used for this study is
shown in Table 8.

Total Respondents 514
Years in Atherton (Q1)
Less than 5 10.2
5 to 9 14.1
10 to 14 12.4
15 or more 63.3
Parcel Size (QD3)
Less than half acre 12.5
Half acre or more 80.8
Refused 6.7
Gender
Male 53.3
Female 46.7
Age
18 to 39 13.0
40 to 49 11.7
50 to 64 34.1
65 or older 38.9
Not on file 2.3
Registration Year
2013 to 2009 20.5
2008 to 2005 10.1
2004 to 2001 8.7
2000 or before 60.6
Not on file 0.2
Party
Democrat 32.1
Republican 47.0
Other / DTS 20.7
Not on file 0.2
Household Party Type
Single dem 11.2
Dual dem 11.4
Single rep 11.9
Dual rep 20.8
Other 10.0
Mixed 34.7
Not on file 0.2
Homeowner on Voter File
Yes 86.1
No 13.9
Likely to Vote by Mail
Yes 71.0
No 29.0
Likely November 2013 Voter
Yes 49.6
No 50.4
Likely June 2014 Voter
Yes 78.7
No 21.3
Methodology
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

M ETHODOLOGY
The following sections outline the methodology used in the study, as well as the motivation for using certain techniques.

QUESTIONNAIRE DEVELOPMENT Dr. McLarney of True North Research worked closely with the Town of Atherton’s subcommittee to develop a questionnaire that covered the topics of interest and avoided possible sources of systematic measurement error, including position-order effects, wording effects, response-category effects, scaling effects, and priming. Several questions included multiple individual items. Because asking the items in a set order can lead to a systematic position bias in responses, items were asked in random order for each respondent.

Some of the questions asked in this study were presented only to a subset of respondents. For example, only individuals who did not support the parcel tax extension at Question 6 were asked the follow-up open-ended Question 7 regarding their reasons for not supporting the measure.

The questionnaire included with this report (see Questionnaire & Toplines on page 28) identifies the skip patterns that were used during the interview to ensure that each respondent received the appropriate questions.

PROGRAMMING & PRE-TEST Prior to fielding the survey, the questionnaire was CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) programmed to assist interviewers when conducting the telephone interviews, as well as web programmed to allow online participation. Both programs automatically navigate skip patterns, randomize the appropriate question items, and alert the interviewer (phone) or participant (web) to certain types of keypunching mistakes should they occur. The integrity of the questionnaire was pre-tested internally by True North prior to formally commencing the interviewing.

SAMPLE, RECRUITING & DATA COLLECTION The survey was administered to registered voters in the Town of Atherton who are likely to participate in the November 2014 election, with a subset of voters who are also likely to participate in the lower turnout November 2013 election and/or June 2014 primary election. A total of 3,434 voters were mailed letters that invited them to participate in the study either online at a secure website or by telephone. Each voter was assigned a unique personal identification number (PIN), which prevented outsiders from participating in the survey and ensured that voters completed the survey only once. A total of 514 voters participated in the survey online or by telephone between June 8 to June 19, 2013.

The telephone interviews averaged 15 minutes in length.

STATISTICAL MARGIN OF ERROR The final sample of voters was representative of the age, gender, and partisanship of voters in the Town of Atherton who are likely to participate in the November 2014 election. The results of the sample can thus be used to estimate the opinions of all voters likely to participate in the November 2014 election. Because not all voters participated in the study, however, the results have what is known as a statistical margin of error due to sampling. The margin of error refers to the difference between what was found in the survey of 514 voters for a particular question and what would have been found if all 3,577 likely November 2014 voters identified in the Town had been surveyed for the study.

Methodology
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 For example, in estimating the percentage of likely voters that would definitely support the measure at the Initial Ballot Test (Question 5 in the survey), the margin of error can be calculated if one knows the size of the population, the size of the sample, a confidence level, and the distribution of responses to the question. The appropriate equation for estimating the margin of error, in this case, is shown below.

Where is the proportion of voters who said definitely yes (0.47 for 47% in this example), is the population size of likely voters (3,577), is the sample size that received the question (514) and is the upper point for the t-distribution with degrees of freedom (1.96 for a 95% confidence interval). Solving the equation using these values reveals a margin of error of ± 4.00%. This means that with 47% of survey respondents indicating they would definitely support the measure at the Initial Ballot Test, we can be 95% confident that the actual percentage of all likely November 2014 voters that would definitely support the measure is between 43% and 51%.

Figure 16 provides a graphic plot of the maximum margin of error in this study. The maximum margin of error for a dichotomous percentage result occurs when the answers are evenly split such that 50% provide one response and 50% provide the alternative response. For this survey, the maximum margin of error is ± 4.00%.

FIGURE 16 MAXIMUM MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO SAMPLING
Within this report, figures and tables show how responses to certain questions varied by subgroups such as age, gender, and partisan affiliation. Figure 16 is thus useful for understanding how the maximum margin of error for a percentage estimate will grow as the number of individuals asked a question (or in a particular subgroup) shrinks. Because the margin of error grows pˆ t Nn –
N------------   pˆ 1 – pˆ n – 1  ------------------- pˆ N
n
t   2 n – 1
514 Likely Nov
2014 Voters
± 4.00%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Sample Size (Number of Respondents)
Margin of Error
Methodology
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 exponentially as the sample size decreases, the reader should use caution when generalizing and interpreting the results for small subgroups.

DATA COLLECTION Interviews were conducted online and also during weekday evenings (5:30PM to 9PM) and on weekends (10AM to 5PM) by telephone between June 8 to June 19, 2013.

It is standard practice not to call during the day on weekdays because most working adults are unavailable and thus calling during those hours would bias the sample. The phone interviews averaged 15 minutes in length.

DATA PROCESSING Data processing consisted of checking the data for errors or inconsistencies, coding and recoding responses, and preparing frequency analyses and crosstabulations.

ROUNDING Numbers that end in 0.5 or higher are rounded up to the nearest whole number, whereas numbers that end in 0.4 or lower are rounded down to the nearest whole number.

These same rounding rules are also applied, when needed, to arrive at numbers that include a decimal place in constructing figures and charts. Occasionally, these rounding rules lead to small discrepancies in the first decimal place when comparing tables and pie charts for a given question.

Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Q UESTIONNAIRE & T OPLINES

True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 1
Town of Atherton
Parcel Tax Survey
Final Toplines
June 2013
Section 1: Introduction to Study
Hi, may I please speak to _____. My name is _____, and I’m calling on behalf of TNR, an independent public opinion research firm. We’re conducting a survey of voters about important issues in Atherton and I’d like to get your opinions.

If needed: This is a survey about important issues in your community—I’m NOT trying to sell anything and I won’t ask for a donation.

If needed: The survey should take about 10 minutes to complete.

If needed: If now is not a convenient time, can you let me know a better time so I can call back?
If the person asks why you need to speak to the listed person or if they ask to participate instead, explain: For statistical purposes, at this time the survey must only be completed by this particular individual.

If the person says they are an elected official or is somehow associated with the survey, politely explain that this survey is designed to measure the opinions of those not closely associated with the study, thank them for their time, and terminate the interview.

Section 2: Quality of Life & Overall Services
I’d like to begin by asking you a few questions about what it is like to live in the Town of Atherton.

Q1 How long have you lived in the Town of Atherton?
1 Less than 1 year 1%
2 1 to 2 years 4%
3 3 to 4 years 5%
4 5 to 9 years 14%
5 10 to 14 years 12%
6 15 years or longer 63%
99 Refused 0%
Q2 How would you rate the overall quality of life in Atherton? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor?
1 Excellent 60%
2 Good 33%
3 Fair 5%
4 Poor 0%
5 Very Poor 0%
98 Not sure 1%
99 Refused 0%
Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 2
Q3
If the Town government could change one thing to make Atherton a better place to live now and in the future, what change would you like to see? Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below.

No changes / Cannot think of anything 22%
Address traffic issues 14%
Improve government, leadership 12%
Improve public safety 10%
Improve trails, sidewalks, bike paths 6%
Improve budgeting, spending 5%
More restrictions, enforcement on
construction, permitting 5%
Improve trash disposal services 4%
Improve street lighting 4%
Improve streets, roads 3%
Add, improve libraries 3%
Reduce noise pollution 3%
Improve parks 3%
Improve sense of community, neighborhoods 3%
Develop new town center 2%
Improve communication, outreach efforts 2%
Improve parking 2%
Bury power, telephone cables 2%
Plant trees 2%
Improve permitting process 2%
Improve stormwater drainage 2%
Reduce taxes 2%
Improve schools, education 2%
Improve public transit 2%
Improve quality, speed of public services 2%
Fewer legal conflicts with residents 1%
Fewer restrictions on construction, permitting 1%
Address barking dog complaints 1%
Attract new businesses 1%
Implement, restructure local taxes 1%
Improve staff 1%
Improve public facilities 1%
Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 3
Q4
Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job the Town of Atherton is doing to provide city services? Get answer, then ask: Would that be very (satisfied/dissatisfied) or somewhat (satisfied/dissatisfied)? 1 Very satisfied 37%
2 Somewhat satisfied 45%
3 Somewhat dissatisfied 9%
4 Very dissatisfied 5%
98 Not sure 3%
99 Refused 1%
Section 3: Initial Ballot Test
Later this year, voters in Atherton may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure.

Q5
In order to continue funding for:

U Police and crime prevention services
U Neighborhood public safety patrols
U Emergency preparedness
U Street repair and maintenance
U And capital infrastructure improvements
Shall the Town of Atherton extend its expiring parcel tax for six years without raising the tax rate and with all funds staying local?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 47%
2 Probably yes 29%
3 Probably no 7%
4 Definitely no 11%
98 Not sure 5%
99 Refused 1%
Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 4
Q6
Voters approved a parcel tax for the Town of Atherton several decades ago and have periodically renewed the measure by popular vote. The parcel tax costs the typical home owner about $750 per year.

The proposed measure I just described would NOT raise the parcel tax. It would only extend the current tax for six more years.

Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)?
1 Definitely yes 50% Skip to Q8
2 Probably yes 25% Skip to Q8
3 Probably no 9% Ask Q7
4 Definitely no 10% Ask Q7
98 Not sure 5% Ask Q7
99 Refused 1% Skip to Q8
Q7 Is there a particular reason why you do not support the measure I just described? Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below.

Taxes already too high 27%
Town needs to improve budgeting, reduce
spending 19%
Prefer not to answer 14%
Need more information 10%
Town salaries, compensation, pensions too
high 9%
Not sure / No particular reason 9%
Not sure why additional funding is needed 6%
Do not support details of measure 3%
Do not trust government, leadership 2%
Too much money spent on lawyers, litigation 1%
Section 4: Programs & Projects
Q8
The measure we’ve been discussing would continue funding for a variety of services and infrastructure projects in the Town.

If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose continuing to use some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion? Get answer, if favor or oppose, then ask: Would that be strongly (favor/oppose) or somewhat (favor/oppose)? Randomize
Strongly
Favor
Somewhat
Favor
Somewhat
Oppose
Strongly
Oppose
No Opinion
Refused
A Provide police and crime prevention services 62% 19% 9% 4% 5% 1% B Provide neighborhood public safety patrols 34% 30% 14% 6% 14% 2% Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 5
C Ensure that the Town is adequately prepared
for emergencies 40% 38% 11% 3% 6% 2%
D Repair and maintain local streets and roads 58% 34% 3% 1% 2% 1% E Make capital infrastructure improvements 28% 42% 12% 6% 10% 3% F Maintain quick responses to 9-1-1
emergencies 73% 17% 5% 2% 3% 1%
G Repair and improve storm drains and flood
control 43% 39% 8% 2% 7% 2%
H Improve code enforcement 26% 30% 20% 9% 13% 2%
Section 5: Positive Arguments
What I’d like to do now is tell you what some people may say about the measure we’ve been discussing.

Q9 Supporters of the measure may say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? Randomize
Very
Convincing
Somewhat
Convincing
Not At All
Convincing
Don’t Believe
Don’t
Know/No
Opinion
Refused
A
All money raised by this measure will be
spent locally to continue providing quality
services in our community. It cannot be taken
away by the State or be used for other
purposes.
50% 29% 14% 3% 3% 3%
B
By keeping our Town safe, clean and wellmaintained, this measure will help protect our quality of life and our property values.
40% 32% 16% 8% 2% 2%
C
This measure will allow the Town to keep up
with basic repairs and maintenance to streets
and infrastructure. If we don’t take care of it
now, it will be a lot more expensive to repair
in the future.
39% 35% 16% 3% 3% 3%
D
The parcel tax has provided the Town with an
important source of funding for several
decades. Nearly 20% of the Town’s total
annual budget comes from the parcel tax.
42% 31% 15% 4% 5% 3%
E
If the parcel tax is allowed to expire, it will
mean cuts to important services including
police, public safety and street maintenance.
50% 21% 15% 8% 4% 3%
F The parcel tax is 100% tax deductible for
home owners. 38% 28% 19% 6% 6% 2%
Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 6
Section 6: Interim Ballot Test
Sometimes people change their mind about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it again.

Q10
In order to continue funding for:

U Police and crime prevention services
U Neighborhood public safety patrols
U Emergency preparedness
U Street repair and maintenance
U And capital infrastructure improvements
Shall the Town of Atherton extend its expiring parcel tax for six years without raising the tax rate and with all funds staying local?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 49%
2 Probably yes 27%
3 Probably no 9%
4 Definitely no 10%
98 Not sure 3%
99 Refused 1%
Section 7: Negative Arguments
Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure may say.

Q11 Opponents of the measure may say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure? Randomize
Very
Convincing
Somewhat
Convincing
Not At All
Convincing
Don’t Believe
Don’t
Know/No
Opinion
Refused
A
Now that the recession is over the economy is
improving, the amount of money the Town
receives from property taxes is increasing. We
don’t need to extend the parcel tax.
17% 37% 28% 12% 4% 2%
B
Government agencies need to live within their
means, just like everyone else. We should not
support this tax.
20% 29% 38% 8% 2% 2%
C The Town can’t be trusted with this tax. They
will mismanage the money. 14% 30% 31% 19% 5% 2%
D This measure is unfair to seniors. There is no
senior exemption. 11% 16% 51% 14% 6% 2%
Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 7
Section 8: Final Ballot Test
Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it one more time.

Q12
In order to continue funding for:

U Police and crime prevention services
U Neighborhood public safety patrols
U Emergency preparedness
U Street repair and maintenance
U And capital infrastructure improvements
Shall the Town of Atherton extend its expiring parcel tax for six years without raising the tax rate and with all funds staying local?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 46%
2 Probably yes 28%
3 Probably no 9%
4 Definitely no 10%
98 Not sure 5%
99 Refused 1%
Section 9: Background & Demographics
Thank you so much for your participation. I have just a few background questions for statistical purposes.

D1 Do you own or rent your residence in Atherton?
1 Own 88%
2 Rent 2%
99 Refused 10%
D2 Which of the following best describes your home?
1 Detached, single family residence 95% Ask D3
2 Townhome or condominium 0% Skip to End
3 Apartment 0% Skip to End
99 Refused 4% Skip to End
Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 8
D3 How large is your parcel?
1 Less than ¼ acre 3%
2 ¼ acre to less than ½ acre 10%
3 ½ acre to less than 2 acres 81%
4 2 acres or larger 4%
99 Refused 2%
Those are all of the questions that I have for you. Thanks so much for participating in this important survey.

Post-Interview & Sample Items
S1 Gender
1 Male 53%
2 Female 47%
S2 Party
1 Democrat 32%
2 Republican 47%
3 Other 1%
4 DTS 19%
S3 Age on Voter File
1 18 to 29 8%
2 30 to 39 5%
3 40 to 49 12%
4 50 to 64 34%
5 65 or older 39%
99 Not coded 2%
S4 Registration Date
1 2013 to 2009 21%
2 2008 to 2005 10%
3 2004 to 2001 9%
4 2000 to 1997 7%
5 Before 1997 53%
Questionnaire & Toplines
Town of Atherton True North Research, Inc. © 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Atherton Parcel Tax Survey June 2013
True North Research, Inc. © 2013 Page 9
S5 Household Party Type
1 Single Dem 11%
2 Dual Dem 11%
3 Single Rep 12%
4 Dual Rep 21%
5 Single Other 5%
6 Dual Other 5%
7 Dem & Rep 9%
8 Dem & Other 9%
9 Rep & Other 16%
0 Mixed (Dem + Rep + Other) 1%
S6 Homeowner on Voter File
1 Yes 86%
2 No 14%
S7 Likely to Vote by Mail
1 Yes 71%
2 No 29%
S8 Likely November 2013 Voter
1 Yes 50%
2 No 50%
S9 Likely June 2014 Voter
1 Yes 79%
2 No 21%
S10 Likely November 2014 Voter
1 Yes 100%
2 No 0%