May 2025 Survey of Likely Voters
San Mateo County
Summary Report on Results
EMC 25-9656
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 2
Survey Methodology
Online survey (text/email) of likely voters in San Mateo County Data collected May 14 – June 1, 2025
Survey available in English, Spanish, Chinese, and Tagalog 2,400 interviews countywide; margin of error ±2.0 percentage points Four-way split-sample allowed for independent test of four different potential ballot measures
• 600 interviews countywide in each split, margin of error ±4.0 percentage points May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 3
Split Sample: Regional Measure Text
Split A
Regional Variable Rate Sales Tax
San Mateo County at 1/4₵
(Identical to language tested in the MTC poll)
To prevent increased traffic congestion; maintain BART, Caltrain, VTA, AC Transit, Muni, and other transit services; preserve transportation services for seniors/persons with disabilities; address transit safety and cleanliness; advance climate protection; reduce air pollution; and prevent
station closures, shall the measure enacting a 7/8 cent (San Francisco), a 1/2 cent (Alameda, Contra Costa counties), and a 1/4 cent (San Mateo County) sales tax for 11 years generating at least $580,000,000 annually, with required public audits and accountability/transparency provisions, be adopted?
600 interviews, margin of error + 4.0 percentage points Split B
Regional Variable Rate Sales Tax
San Mateo County at 1/2₵
(Identical to language tested in the MTC poll with updated SMC rate) To prevent increased traffic congestion; maintain BART, Caltrain, VTA, AC Transit, Muni, and other transit services; preserve transportation services for seniors/persons with disabilities; address transit safety and cleanliness; advance climate protection; reduce air pollution; and prevent station closures, shall the measure enacting a 7/8 cent (San
Francisco) and a 1/2 cent (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo counties) sales tax for 11 years generating at least
$640,000,000 annually, with required public audits and
accountability/transparency provisions, be adopted?
600 interviews, margin of error + 4.0 percentage points May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 4
Split Sample: Local Measure Text
Split C
Local Sales Tax
Extend Measure A with no increase
Without increasing taxes, to repair potholes, maintain
streets, reduce traffic congestion, improve road/freeway safety, enhance connections between Caltrain, SamTrans, BART and other transit services, prevent transit service cuts for students, seniors and persons with disabilities, increase access to jobs and housing, and improve safety for
bicyclists/ pedestrians, shall San Mateo County
Transportation Authority’s Ordinance extending the current 1/2 cent sales tax for 30 years, with local control,
independent oversight and accountability/transparency
requirements, providing approximately $120,000,000
annually, be adopted?
600 interviews, margin of error + 4.0 percentage points Split D
Local Sales Tax
Extend Measure A with 1/8₵ increase
To repair potholes, maintain streets, reduce traffic
congestion, improve /freeway safety, enhance connections between Caltrain, SamTrans, BART, and other transit services, prevent transit service cuts for students, seniors and persons with disabilities, increase access to jobs and housing, and improve safety for bicyclists/ pedestrians, shall San Mateo County Transportation Authority’s Ordinance extending the current 1/2 cent sales tax, plus 1/8 cent, for 30 years, with local control, independent oversight and
accountability/transparency requirements, providing
approximately $180,000,000 annually, be adopted?
600 interviews, margin of error + 4.0 percentage points May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 5
Key Findings
Voter mood in the county is optimistic, but uncertain about the economic future of the Bay Area. Six in ten voters support a tax increase for local or regional transportation priorities, but only the measure to extend Measure A without increase gains support from over two-thirds of likely voters. Any tax measure is vulnerable to opposition.
While six in ten state a general inclination to oppose tax increases, over half of voters also agree it is crucial to have high-quality roads and transit service even if it means raising taxes, indicating that these issues may be important enough to overcome some tax hesitancy.
Voters are sensitive to the cost burden of any tax increase, but tax rates at or above 10% do not engender any more concern. Similarly, there is little difference in support between a ⅛, ¼, and ½ cent increase. While potholes and traffic congestion are important issues to voters, they are also motivated to support public transit investments and preservation of transit service.
Voters want to improve both local and regional transit connectivity, with a slight preference for regional. There is minimal difference in voter support or opposition for funding Caltrain, BART, and SamTrans. Voters are interested in road maintenance, pothole repair, and congestion relief, and have concerns about solutions that do nothing to address those issues locally.
Voters don’t inherently trust local over regional agencies to make transportation investment decisions. In any measure, accountability components will be critical.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 6
Self-Reported Transit Usage Among Voters
Weekly+ Riders: Rides any public transit (SamTrans, VTA, BART, Caltrain, Muni, or any other Bay Area transit) service at least once a week Monthly Riders: Rides any public transit (SamTrans, VTA, BART, Caltrain, Muni, or any other Bay Area transit) service at least monthly Occasional Riders: Rides any public transit (SamTrans, VTA, BART, Caltrain, Muni, or any other Bay Area transit) service less than monthly Non-Riders: Never rides on any public transit service
80% of San Mateo County voters
report riding public transit at least
occasionally, with 27% saying they
ride at least once a month
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 7
Key Finding #1
Voter mood in the county is optimistic, but
uncertain about the economic future of the Bay
Area.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 8
Nearly three-quarters of voters feel that things in San Mateo County are generally going in the right direction. However, over half of voters expect economic conditions in the Bay Area to be worse one year from now
Do you feel that things in San Mateo County are… Thinking about the future, how do you expect economic conditions in the Bay Area to be one year
from now?
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 9
Key Finding #2
Six in ten voters support a tax increase for local
or regional transportation priorities, but only the
measure to extend Measure A without increase
gains support from over two-thirds of likely
voters. Any tax measure is vulnerable to
opposition.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 10
While all measures reach majority support in the County, support for a Measure A extension without increase is the only instance where support reaches two-thirds Split A: Regional
Variable Rate Sales
Tax: SMC at 1/4₵
Split B: Regional
Variable Rate Sales
Tax: SMC at 1/2₵
Split C: Local Sales Tax:
Extend Measure A
with no increase
Split D: Local Sales Tax:
Extend Measure A
with 1/8₵ increase
50%
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 11
Any tax measure is vulnerable to opposition messaging
*Sample size for each split = 600n, MoE=±4.0 % points
% Yes
Split A: Regional
Variable Rate Sales
Tax: SMC at 1/4₵
Split B: Regional
Variable Rate Sales
Tax: SMC at 1/2₵
Split C: Local Sales Tax:
Extend Measure A
with no increase
Split D: Local Sales Tax:
Extend Measure A
with 1/8₵ increase
50%
61% 57%
72%
60% 59% 59%
72%
62%
50% 50%
66%
56%
0%
67%
Yes - Split A Yes - Split B Yes - Split C Yes-Split D
Initial Vote After Info After Opposition
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 12
Key Finding #3
While six in ten state a general inclination to
oppose tax increases, over half of voters also
agree it is crucial to have high-quality roads and
transit service even if it means raising taxes,
indicating that these issues may be important
enough to overcome some tax hesitancy.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 13
Many voters feel roads and transit may be worth considering a tax increase Do you agree or disagree…
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 14
Key Finding #4
Voters are sensitive to the cost burden of any tax
increase, but tax rates at or above 10% do not
engender any more concern. Similarly, there is
little difference in support between a ⅛, ¼, and
½ cent increase.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 15
Voters see little difference between a 10% tax rate and an 11% tax rate *Each version of the question was shown to only half of the overall sample (MoE = +2.8%) Percent Agree
Do you agree or disagree…
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 16
Voters are sensitive to the cost burden of any tax increase; total rates at or above 10% do not generate significantly different amounts of opposition *Each version of the specific rate question was shown to only one of the four samples (MoE=±4.0 %) How convincing is this as a reason to vote against the measure? May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 17
Key Finding #5
While potholes and traffic congestion are important issues to voters, they are also motivated to support public transit investments and preservation of transit service.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 18
Voters are interested in a range of transportation investments Repairing potholes and maintaining roads
Making roads and freeways safer
Reducing traffic congestion
Enhancing connections between Caltrain, SamTrans, BART and other transit services
Preventing cuts to public transit service
Limiting traffic backups at Caltrain road crossings
Improving safety for bicyclists and pedestrians
Improving safety at Caltrain road crossings
How do you feel about your tax dollars being spent on each of the following transportation priorities in San Mateo County?
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 19
Voters are motivated by the content of a measure, but concerns around cost and credibility hold them back
• Maintaining transit for those who
need it
• Transit connectivity
• Roads and potholes (local measures)
• Oversight
Top Motivators to Support a Tax Measure
(Coded responses to open-ended question, across all samples) Top Motivators to Oppose a Tax Measure
(Coded responses to open-ended question, across all samples) • Cost of living
• Too many taxes
• We won’t see results
“[…] public transportation is the backbone of
our infrastructure and ability to travel
throughout the Bay Area.”
“Cost of living is already too high with so
much taxes already.”
“I don't trust that the money would actually
go to projects.”
“At a low cost, this measure creates
funding for maintenance on roads
and promotes public transportation.”
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 20
Key Finding #6
Voters want to improve both local and regional transit
connectivity, with a slight preference for regional. There is minimal difference in voter support or opposition for
funding Caltrain, BART, and SamTrans.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 21
Voters want to see both regional and local improvements to public transit Percent Agree
Do you agree or disagree…
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 22
Most support tax dollars being spent on three major transit operators in the county Supporting Caltrain service
Supporting SamTrans bus and paratransit
service
Supporting BART service
How do you feel about your tax dollars being spent on each of the following transportation priorities in San Mateo County?
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 23
Seven in ten voters are compelled by the idea of transit connectivity, both regional and local
How convincing is this as a reason to vote for the measure? May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 24
Key Finding #7
Voters are interested in road maintenance, pothole repair, and congestion relief, and have concerns about solutions that do nothing to address those issues locally.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 25
Road maintenance is a compelling reason to support a local measure.
How convincing is this as a reason to vote for the measure? May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 26
Opposition that focuses on what is excluded from a measure is effective, but concern is higher around the lack of local traffic congestion relief How convincing is this as a reason to vote against the measure? May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 27
Key Finding #8
Voters don’t inherently trust local over regional agencies to make transportation investment decisions. In any measure, accountability components will be critical.
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 28
Trust in government management of tax dollars is low
Do you agree or disagree…
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 29
Voters appreciate public transit investment decisions at both the regional and local level, although interest is slightly higher in regional transit improvements How convincing is this as a reason to vote for the measure? Percent Convincing
May 2025 San Mateo County Voter Survey Summary | 30
Conclusions
San Mateo County voters generally support investments in transportation projects and programs; they would like to preserve and connect public transit around the region (including within the county), while improving roads, infrastructure, and traffic locally. They are equally interested in supporting Caltrain, BART, and SamTrans with their tax dollars.
While more than two-thirds of voters are supportive of extending Measure A without increase, a tax increase at any level is supported by around six in ten voters, with little difference in support for increases of 1/8, 1/4, or 1/2 cent, or the resultant total tax rates.
Cost concerns and skepticism about government effectiveness are challenges for both regional and local measures, and will require the inclusion of strong oversight and transparency around any tax measure.
Sara LaBatt
[email protected]
510.550.8924
Ruth Bernstein
[email protected]
510.550.8922