Staff Report
ATTACHMENT E
BIG LAFCO Action Area B
Fiscal Impact Analysis
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SUMMARY MEMORANDUM
April 20, 2026
To: Matthew Summers, Colantuono, Highsmith & Whatley, PC From: David Taussig and Jerry Wen, DTA
Subject: Fiscal Impacts Resulting from the Proposed Annexation of Certain Portion of Barstow International Gateway Project Area into the City of Barstow and the Barstow Fire Protection District
The Local Agency Formation Commission (“LAFCO”) for the County of San Bernardino (the “County”) requires the preparation and certification of a fiscal analysis when a jurisdiction is affected by a proposed change of organization or reorganization. The City of Barstow (the “City”) is in the process of annexing approximately 99 acres, identified as LAFCO Action Area B, currently located in the unincorporated portion of the County of San Bernardino (the “County”) within the District’s Spheres of Influence (“SOIs”) that has been identified by LAFCO as a Disadvantaged Unincorporated Community (“DUC”).
DTA has been engaged by the City to analyze the incremental net fiscal impact of the proposed annexation of Action Area B on City’s General Fund. The City is also in the process of annexing LAFCO Action Area A, a 2,686-acre territory contiguous to Action Area B that encompasses most of the site area for the proposed Barstow International Gateway Project (the “BIG Project”). Since California Government Code §56375 mandates any City annexation proposal greater than 10 acres that is contiguous to a DUC cannot be approved unless an application for annexation of such DUC has been filed, the City is filing an application for the reorganization of Action Area B in connection with the proposed annexation of Action Area A into the City. Given that the City is annexing Action Area B in connection with the proposed reorganization of Action Area A, the net fiscal impact of the proposed annexation of Action Area B should be evaluated in conjunction with the net fiscal impact of the entire BIG Project at its build-out.
A Description of Action Area B
Action Area B, as depicted in Figure 1 below, is located south of Main Street and west of Delaney Road abutting the westmost City boundaries.
Figure 1: Map for the Action Area B
.
2 City of Barstow April 20, 2026
Fiscal Impacts Resulting from the Proposed Annexation of Action Area B Action Area B is currently consisted of six Assessor’s Parcels (the “Parcels’) encompassing approximately 93.3 acres of land, 1 acre of interim open space, and 5 acres of right-of-way.
As summarized in Table 1 below, five of those Parcels are currently improved with singlefamily homes on 20.7 acres of land, with the remaining Parcel comprising 72.61 acres of vacant land.
Table 1: Parcel Summary
Assessor’s Parcel
Numbers Acres Situs Address Existing Dwelling Description(Sq. Ft./ Bedrooms/ Baths) 0421-071-13-0000 9.95 24073 Swallow Rd 1,886 / 3 / 2
0421-071-36-0000 2.08 23708 Gazana Rd 2,273 / 2 / 2
0421-071-38-0000 2.09 23828 Gazana St 1,926 / 3 / 2
0421-071-46-0000 2.19 32959 Amarylis Ave 1,763 / 3 / 2
0421-071-57-0000 72.61 N/A N/A
0421-071-58-0000 4.39 23875 Robin Ln 4,852 / 4 / 3
Grand Total 93.31 N/A N/A
All Parcels are anticipated to receive the new Business Park (“BP”) land use designation under City’s proposed General Plan and Zoning Map, which primarily permits office and low-impact industrial (non-truck intensive) uses. Given the presence of existing homes, the new BP General Plan land use designation and zoning would allow for legacy residential uses to remain, with a limited number of new homes allowed to be developed, subject to specific conditions identified in Barstow Code §19.17.160.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, given current owners of Parcels have not demonstrated any interest in redeveloping or developing their property, the City does not anticipate any new developments within Action Area B in a foreseeable future. For purposes of this fiscal impact analysis (“FIA”), fiscal revenues and expenditures are estimated based solely on existing development within Action Area B.
B Analytic Methodology and Assumptions
Notably, only recurring revenues and costs are analyzed in this FIA. Costs that are considered non-recurring, such as capital expenditures, are excluded from the analysis.
This is because new development is generally required to construct its own new capital improvements, such as roads or parks, or pay Development Impact Fees (“DIFs”) that enable the City or another developer to construct these improvements. As these are one-time costs that will not recur, there is no expectation that new development will need to pay for these capital expenditures a second time. Likewise, revenues that are non-recurring, such as DIFs paid by developers, are also excluded from the FIAs. In sum, the model reflects the estimated recurring annual deficit or surplus to the City’s General Fund that will result from the existing development with Action Area B upon its annexations into the City.
DTA chooses its analytical assumptions in accordance with industry standards and documents those decisions carefully. DTA mainly utilized a Per Capita/Employee Multiplier Approach (emphasizing average expenditures and revenues) to evaluate the City’s General Fund revenues expected to be generated by existing land uses within Action Area B and costs associated with services expected to be provided by the City to such land uses. Under this approach, DTA thoroughly reviewed the City’s current annual budgets to determine costs related to the City’s provision of services to their residents and employees, compared with all 3 City of Barstow April 20, 2026
Fiscal Impacts Resulting from the Proposed Annexation of Action Area B current City revenue sources. However, certain Action Area B revenues, such as property taxes and sales taxes derived from the site were determined using a Case Study Approach. Under the Case Study Approach, DTA utilized specific information related to Action Area B to accurately assess such revenues. DTA then determined the total costs and revenues associated with the various components of Action Area B to the City. In doing so, DTA determined whether Action Area B is likely to generate a net fiscal surplus or net fiscal deficit for the City’s General Fund.
The following list explains how some of the assumptions utilized by DTA in preparing this FIA were derived:
Discounting Revenues: Certain revenues are not expected to increase one-to-one with new development. Thus, 15% and 75% discount rates have been applied to various General Fund revenues to reflect the estimated ratio of fixed revenues (not impacted by future development) to variable revenues. In addition, DTA conservatively applies a 100% discount on the revenues that are deemed static or difficult to forecast, including the intergovernmental revenues received by the City.
Discounting Expenses: Certain service costs are not expected to increase one-to-one with new development. Thus, a 15% discount rate has been applied to various General Fund expenditures to reflect the estimated ratio of fixed costs (not impacted by future development) to variable costs. Notably, DTA has conservatively assumed that no discount factor would be applied to Police and Public Works expenditures, even though it is likely that such expenditures will not need to be 100% duplicated despite the influx of new residents on Action Area B site.
In addition, a 100% discount rate was applied to City's General Fund Measure Q expenditures/transfers of $5.54M to subsidize the Barstow Fire Protection District (“BFPD”), a subsidiary district of the City. Given Action Area B is already located within the jurisdiction of BFPD and currently receives fire protection services therefrom, the City is not expected to provide additional subsidies for BFPD’s expenditures to residents within Action Area B upon its annexation into the City.
Tax Sharing (Secured Property Taxes): Property tax revenue estimates were derived using the applicable locally assessed valuation and apportionment factors by the TRAs provided by the County Auditor-Controller as applied to the general 1% ad valorem property tax levy [Prop 13], net of the projected Education Revenue Augmentation Fund (“ERAF”) property tax shifts. The total secured property tax revenues received by the County General Fund from the TRA in the Action Area B site equal approximately 15.21% of the basic 1% levy, respectively. For the purposes of this FIA, DTA has assumed that 50% of these percentages will be transferred to the City after the annexation of Action Area B into the City. As a result, the City would accrue 7.61% of the basic 1% levy from Action Area B.
Property Tax In Lieu of Vehicle License Fees (“VLFs”): Per California Revenue and Taxation Code §97.70, the property tax in lieu of VLF amount now grows in proportion to the growth rate of Citywide gross assessed valuation of taxable property from the prior fiscal year. Property taxes in lieu of VLF revenues constitute an addition to other property tax apportionments and were calculated for the purposes of this FIA at $1.59 per $1,000 increase in assessed valuation on a Citywide basis.
4 City of Barstow April 20, 2026
Fiscal Impacts Resulting from the Proposed Annexation of Action Area B For additional details regarding the specific assumptions and methodology utilized to calculate the fiscal impacts for Action Area B, please see Attachment 1.
C Net Fiscal Impact Summary
As listed in Table 2, the overall net fiscal impact to the City's General Fund resulting from the revenues anticipated to be generated by existing land uses within Action Area B ($4,608), as compared with the cost of public services associated with existing land uses within Action Area B ($13,282), will be an annual recurring fiscal deficit of $8,674 after its annexation into the City. As reflected in Figure 2 below, the largest projected City General Fund revenue source attributable to Action Area B is property taxes, including property tax in lieu of VLFs, at 67.2%. Conversely, the largest projected City General Fund expenditures will be for Police (46.4%) and general government (21.7%), as reflected in Figure 3 below.
Figure 2: Recurring General Fund Revenues from Existing Land Uses within Action Area B Figure 3: Recurring General Fund Expenditures to Serve Existing Land Uses within Action Area B 5 City of Barstow April 20, 2026
Fiscal Impacts Resulting from the Proposed Annexation of Action Area B Table 2: City General Fund Fiscal Impact Summary
In conjunction with the projected annual recurring fiscal surplus of $2,507,303 at the buildout of the BIG Project, the overall net fiscal impact to the City resulting from the annexation of Action Area A and Action Area B will be an annual recurring fiscal surplus of $2,498,629 after their annexations into the City.
If you have any further questions regarding this Executive Summary, please feel free to contact David Taussig or Jerry Wen at (800) 969-4DTA.
Enclosures:
1. Attachment 1 – FIA
ATTACHMENT 1
City of Barstow
Fiscal Impacts Resulting from the Proposed Annexation of Action Area B FIA
ATTACHMENT 1-A
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
CITY FUND REVENUES (BY TYPE)
I Demographics and Other Data
A City of Barstow
2025 Estimated City Population [1] 24,811
2025 Estimated City Employees [2] 11,137
2025 Persons Served Population [3] 30,380
B Barstow Fire Protection District
2025 Estimated District Population [4] 32,790
2025 Estimated District Employees [5] 11,304
2025 Persons Served Population [3] 38,442
Notes:
[1] California Department of Finance, Housing and Population Information, January 1, 2025. [2] Environics Analytics, EmploymentProfiles by NAICS Codes for the City of Barstow. [3] Assumes City population plus 50% of employees.
[4] Pop-Facts® Demographic Snapshot 2025 for the Barstow Fire Protection District. [5] Environics Analytics, EmploymentProfiles by NAICS Codes 2025 for the Barstow Fire Protection District.
II City Revenue Sources (by Type)
General
Fund [1]
Revenue
Type
Fiscal Impact
Basis Discount
Fiscal Impact
Revenue
Factor
Tax Revenue $32,075,140 Persons Served $0.00
Property Tax - Secured $2,123,500 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Property Tax - Supplemental $88,500 Recurring Case Study 0% NA RDA Residual Tax Payment $1,411,500 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Real Property Transfer Tax $70,500 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Transient Occupancy Tax $3,998,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Sales and Use Tax - Measure Q $9,585,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Sales Tax - Bradley Burns $8,149,770 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Sales Tax - Public Safety $226,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Homeowners Property Tax Relief $10,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Business Licenses $251,250 Recurring Per Employee 15% $19.18 Franchise Fees $1,502,500 Recurring Persons Served 15% $42.04 Interest Income $175,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
Charges for Service $111,160 Recurring Persons Served 100% $0.00 Construction Permits & Planning Fees $699,460 Recurring NA NA NA Licenses - Bingo Game $650 Recurring Persons Served 100% $0.00 VLF/Property Tax Compensation $3,287,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Fines and Forfeitures $182,300 Recurring Persons Served 15% $5.10 Use of Property $203,050 Recurring Persons Served 75% $1.67 Motor Vehicle License Fees $41,500 Recurring Case Study NA NA Other / Miscellaneous $1,549,600 Recurring Persons Served 100% $0.00 Cannabis Fees $1,266,195 Recurring Persons Served 100% $0.00 Transfer-in from Measure Q Fund $5,429,788 Recurring Case Study 0% NA $43,334,723 NA NA NA NA
$43,334,723 NA NA NA NA
Notes:
[1] Include Measure Q, Measure Q - Fire, and General Fund II subfunds.
Total Recurring Revenues
Revenue Type
Total Revenues
ATTACHMENT 1-B
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
CITY FUND EXPENDITURES (BY TYPE)
I Demographics and Other Data
A City of Barstow
2025 Estimated City Population [1] 24,811
2025 Estimated City Employees [2] 11,137
2025 Persons Served Population [3] 30,380
B Barstow Fire Protection District
2025 Estimated District Population [4] 32,790
2025 Estimated District Employees [5] 11,304
2025 Persons Served Population [3] 38,442
Notes:
[1] California Department of Finance, Housing and Population Information, January 1, 2025. [2] Environics Analytics, EmploymentProfiles by NAICS Codes for the City of Barstow. [3] Assumes City population plus 50% of employees.
[4] Pop-Facts® Demographic Snapshot 2025 for the Barstow Fire Protection District. [5] Environics Analytics, EmploymentProfiles by NAICS Codes 2025 for the Barstow Fire Protection District.
II City Expenditures (by Type)
General
Fund [1]
Expenditure
Type
Fiscal Impact
Basis Discount
Fiscal Impact
Expenditure
Factor
General Government
City Council $149,250 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
City Clerk $21,325 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
City Attorney $476,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
City Manager $1,637,402 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
Municipal Records $396,990 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
Insurance Risk Management $2,363,178 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Finance $1,243,258 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
Information Technology $1,085,248 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Human Resources $817,932 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
City Treasurer $34,300 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
Central Services $435,998 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
Cannabis Regulation $2,000 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
General Fund II $29,800 Recurring Case Study 0% NA
Barstow Fire Protection District $213,239 Recurring Case Study 0% NA Non-General Government
Public Works $4,464,684 Recurring Persons Served 0% $146.96 Community Development $3,847,595 Recurring Persons Served 15% $107.65 Police $13,371,573 Recurring Persons Served 0% $440.14
Parks & Recreation $1,721,487 Recurring Persons Served 15% $48.17 Debt Service $121,400 Recurring NA 0% NA
Barstow Fire Protection District $5,331,168 Recurring Persons Served 100% $0.00 Transfers & Others $557,907 Recurring NA 0% NA
$38,321,734 NA NA NA NA
$38,321,734 NA NA NA NA
Notes:
[1] Include Measure Q, Measure Q - Fire, and General Fund II subfunds.
Total Recurring Expenditures
Expenditure Type
Total Expenditures
ATTACHMENT 1-C
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHICS SUMMARY
I Existing Land Uses [1] Acres Dwelling Units
Single-family Homes 20.70 5
Vacant Land 72.61 NA
I Residential Land Use Population
A Existing Land Uses Persons per Household [2]
Single-family Homes 2.80
I Population
A Existing Land Uses Dwelling Units Residential Population Single-family Homes 5 14
Vacant Land NA NA
I Total Projected Residential Population 14
II Total Projected Direct Employees 0
III Total Persons Served Population [4] 14
NOTES:
[1] Source: County of San Bernardino Assessor Office.
[2] State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State, January 1, 2025.
[3] An employee is typically assumed to be equivalent to 50% of a resident given they would spend only eight active hours in the City per day versus a resident who is active for 16 hours per day. * All figures subject to rounding
Population and Employees (Totals)
Land Use Data
Population and Employees (Calculations)
Demographic Data
ATTACHMENT 1-D
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
PROPERTY TAX REVENUE ANALYSIS
I Property Tax Allocation (as a Portion of the 1% General Property Tax Levy) [1] Prior to Annexation into City Upon Annexation into City A Category / Code County General Fund [2] County General Fund [3] City General Fund [3] General Fund 15.207571% 7.603786% 7.603786%
I FY 2025-26 Secured Valuation
A Existing Land Uses Taxable Value [4]
Single-family Homes $1,241,528
Vacant Land $77,700
II Total Land Use Net Taxable Secured Value for Action Area B Upon Annexation into the City $1,319,228 III FY 2025-26 Unsecured Valuation
A Existing Land Uses Taxable Value [4]
Single-family Homes $0
Vacant Land $0
IV Total Land Use Net Taxable Unsecured Value for Action Area B Upon Annexation into the City $0 I Motor Vehicle Licensing Fees - Assumptions
Vehicle Licensing Fees per Capita NA
II Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fee - Assumptions Total City of Barstow Gross Assessed Value [5] $2,071,915,996 City of Barstow Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fee [6] $3,287,000 Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fee Increase per $1,000 Assessed Value $1.59 I Fiscal Impact Category Annual Fiscal Impact Amount
A Secured Property Tax
A.1 Existing Land Uses
Single-family Homes $944
Vacant Land $59
B Unsecured Property Tax
B.1 Existing Land Uses
Single-family Homes $0
Vacant Land $0 #REF! $0 C Property Tax In-Lieu of Vehicle License Fee Existing Land Uses [7] $2,093
II Total Property Tax Revenues $3,096
NOTES:
[1] Based on Tax Rate Area (TRA) data provided by the County of San Bernardino Auditor-Controller's Office. TRA allocations adjusted for the Educational Revenue Augmentation Fund ("ERAF"). [2] Post-ERAF rates based on the weighted average of the fiscal year 2024-25 rates applicable to the TRAs encompassing each land use.
Source: County of San Bernardino Auditor-Controller Office. [3] Assumes the County of San Bernardino will retain 50.00% of its current 1% property tax increment, with the City of Barstow receiving the remaining 50.00%.
[4] Net of applicable exemptions. Source: County of San Bernardino Assessor Office. [5] Source: County of San Bernardino Auditor-Controller Office. [6] Source: City of Barstow Fiscal Year 2025/2026 Adopted Budget. [7] Property Tax in-lieu of Vehicle Licensing Fees applies to incremental property value. * All figures subject to rounding
General Property Tax Assumptions
Assessed Valuation Summary
Other Property Tax Revenue Assumptions
Fiscal Impact Calculation
ATTACHMENT 1-E
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
SALES TAX REVENUE ANALYSIS
I Indirect Sales Tax Assumptions - Residential
A Existing Residential Land Use Disposable Income Assumptions A.1 Single-family Homes
Average Household Income [1] $53,380
Retail Taxable Expenditures (as a % of Disposable Income) [2] 30.49% II Retail Taxable Sales Capture
City of Barstow Retail Taxable Purchase Capture [3] 50% I Percent to the City of Barstow General Fund
City of Barstow Municipal Code §3.12.020 1.00%
Measure Q 1.00%
Prop 172 - Public Safety [4] 0.03%
Total 2.03%
I Fiscal Impact Category Annual Fiscal Impact Amount
A Indirect Sales Tax
A.1 Existing Residential Land Uses
Single-family Homes $825
Vacant Land $0
II Total Sales Tax Revenues $825
NOTES:
[1] Based on the average household income in the City of Barstow.
Source: "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Barstow City, California." [2] Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022 Consumer Expenditure Survey [3] Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
[4] The City projects to receive approximately 6% of the Prop 172 sales tax receipts generated within the City, which is equivalent to 0.03% sales tax rate. Source: City of Barstow Fiscal Year 2024/2025 Adopted Budget. * All figures subject to rounding
Indirect Sales Tax Assumptions
Other Sales Tax Assumptions
Fiscal Impact Calculation
ATTACHMENT 1-F
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
MULTIPLIER REVENUE SOURCES ANALYSIS
I Revenue Category Multiplier Factor [1] Revenue Projection Basis Business Licenses $19.18 Per Employee
Franchise Fees $42.04 Persons Served
Use of Property $1.67 Persons Served
Fines and Forfeitures $5.10 Persons Served
I Fiscal Impact Category Annual Fiscal Impact Amount
Tax Revenue $0
Business Licenses $0
Franchise Fees $589
Charges for Service $0
Use of Property $23
Fines and Forfeitures $71
II Total Multiplier Revenues $683
NOTES:
[1] Source: City of Barstow Fiscal Year 2025/2026 Adopted Budget. * All figures subject to rounding
Multiplier Revenue Assumptions
Fiscal Impact Calculation
ATTACHMENT 1-G
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
INVESTMENT INCOME REVENUES ANALYSIS
I Investment Income Assumptions
Investment Period for Recurring Non-Interest General Fund Revenues 1 Month Local Agency Investment Fund (LAIF) Rate of Return [1] 2.06% Local Agency Investment Fund (LAIF) Percentage of Earnings Cost [1] 50.00% I Fiscal Impact Category Annual Fiscal Impact Amount
Total Property Tax Revenues (Attachment 1-D) $3,096
Total Sales Tax Revenues (Attachment 1-E) $825
Total Multiplier Revenues (Attachment 1-F) $683
II Projected Recurring General Fund Revenues Available for Investment $4,604 III Plus: Investment Income (Less Earnings Cost) $4
IV Total Recurring General Fund Revenues $4,608
NOTES:
[1] Estimate. Subject to change.
* All figures subject to rounding
Assumptions
Fiscal Impact Calculation
ATTACHMENT 1-H
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
MULTIPLIER EXPENDITURES ANALYSIS
I Expenditure Category Multiplier Factor [1] Expenditure Projection Basis Public Works $146.96 Persons Served
Community Development $107.65 Persons Served
Police $440.14 Persons Served
Parks & Recreation $48.17 Persons Served
I Fiscal Impact Category Annual Fiscal Impact Amount
Public Works $2,057
Community Development $1,507
Police $6,162
Parks & Recreation $674
II Total Multiplier Expenditures $10,400
NOTES:
[1] Source: City of Barstow Approved Budget, Fiscal Year 2025-2026. * All figures subject to rounding
Multiplier Expenditure Assumptions
Fiscal Impact Calculation
ATTACHMENT 1-I
BARSTOW, CALIFORNIA: LAFCO ACTION AREA B
GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ANALYSIS
I General Government Overhead Expenditures City General Fund Total Recurring Fund Expenditures (excluding General Government Overhead) [1] $23,526,739 Recurring General Government Overhead Expenditures [2] 36.9% Marginal Increase in General Government Costs 75%
I Fiscal Impact Category Annual Fiscal Impact Amount
Total Multiplier Expenditures (Attachment 1-H) $10,400
II Projected Recurring General Fund Expenditures $10,400 III Plus: General Government Costs $2,882
IV Total Recurring Expenditures $13,282
NOTES:
[1] Source: City of Barstow Approved Budget, Fiscal Year 2025-2026. [2] As a % of Total Recurring Fund Expenditures. General Government Overhead Expenditures defined as costs for Legislative, Administration, Finance, Development Services, and other General Government. * All figures subject to rounding
Assumptions
Fiscal Impact Calculation