45 buyback programs is the removal of unwanted firearms from the community,” not necessarily the increase of safety and decrease of gun violence. “To improve the effectiveness of gun buyback programs, it is necessary to understand the demographic that is likely to participate. The majority of participants in our gun buyback program study were white males. Most have additional weapons at home. Participants are more likely to reside in suburban affluent communities than in urban locations, which is similar to other reports.”161 As there has not yet been innovation in how to attract likely perpetrators and likely victims of gun violence to these gun buybacks, and as we know the demography of said population, gun buybacks are not linked causally to less gun violence.
161 Violano, P., Driscoll, C., Chaudhary, N. K., Schuster, K. M., Davis, K. A., Borer, E., Winters, J. K., & Hirsh, M. P. (2014). Gun buyback programs: A venue to eliminate unwanted guns in the community. Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, 77(3), S46–S50. https://doi.org/10.1097/TA.0000000000000319
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46 162
163
Hot Spots Policing
It is a generally known fact that hot spots policing is effective at reducing crime. The effectiveness of hot spots policing bears out in the extensive body of research that includes numerous experimental and quasi-experimental studies.164
162 Kasper, R. E., Green, J., Damle, R. N., Aidlen, J., Nazarey, P., Manno, M., Borer, E., & Hirsh, M. P. (2017). And the survey said.... Evaluating rationale for participation in gun buybacks as a tool to encourage higher yields. Journal of Pediatric Surgery, 52(2), 354–359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2016.08.009
163 Violano, P., Driscoll, C., Chaudhary, N. K., Schuster, K. M., Davis, K. A., Borer, E., Winters, J. K., & Hirsh, M. P. (2014). Gun buyback programs: A venue to eliminate unwanted guns in the community. Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, 77(3), S46–S50. https://doi.org/10.1097/TA.0000000000000319
164 Weisburd, D., & Telep, C. W. (2014). Hot spots policing: What we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214525083 PAGE 3059
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47 Braga (2007) stated, “extant evaluation research seems to provide fairly robust evidence that hot spots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy”.165
Hot spots policing originated out of the widespread acknowledgement that crime, including gun violence, is clustered heavily around very small geospatial units within a city. It is a strategy that focuses prevention resources on specific locations where crime is highly concentrated.166 It is widely accepted that a very small percentage of units of analysis of place is responsible for a majority of crime incidents.167 Simply stated, when focused on small units of geography with high rates of crime, police can effectively tackle crime and disorder.168 Instead of larger units, hot spots policing can adopt a range of responses focused on street segments and intersections.
This contrasts with the traditional policing strategy which focuses on individuals.169 Police records can be analyzed to identify gun violence concentration in such places and how that concentration changes – or is stable – over time.
There is the question of what activities officers should undertake while in these hot spots. Just increasing officer presence at a hot spot has a deterrent effect on crime.170 In the Minneapolis Hot Spots Patrol Experiment, police were not given specific instructions other than to increase patrol at hot spots. Increased police presence alone had a statistically significant effect on deterring crime.171 The theory of change here is that criminals will note the police presence and be deterred due to the increased cost of offending. Analysis by Koper (1995) concluded that the ideal time spent at each hot spot is 15 minutes. After that interval, police presence has diminished marginal returns. This phenomenon is known as the “Koper curve”.172 “Survival time” is the amount of time it takes for crime or disorder to happen after an officer has departed. When officers are just present for 15 minutes, survival time increased by 23%.173
165 Braga, A. A., Turchan, B. S., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019). Hot spots policing and crime reduction: An update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 15(3), 289–311. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-019-09372-3 166 Weisburd, D., & Telep, C. W. (2014). Hot spots policing: What we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214525083 167 Weisburd, D. (2015). The law of crime concentration and the criminology of place*: The law of crime concentration. Criminology, 53(2), 133– 157. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12070
168 Papachristos, A. V., Braga, A. A., & Hureau, D. M. (2012). Social networks and the risk of gunshot injury. Journal of Urban Health, 89(6), 992– 1003. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-012-9703-9
169 Weisburd, D., & Telep, C. W. (2014). Hot spots policing: What we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214525083 170 Braga, A. A., Turchan, B. S., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019). Hot spots policing and crime reduction: An update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 15(3), 289–311. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-019-09372-3 171 Sherman, L. W., & Weisburd, D. (1995). General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime “hot spots”: A randomized, controlled trial. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 625–648. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418829500096221 172 Koper, C. S. (1995). Just enough police presence: Reducing crime and disorderly behavior by optimizing patrol time in crime hot spots. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 649–672. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418829500096231 173 Weisburd, D., & Telep, C. W. (2014). Hot spots policing: What we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214525083 PAGE 3060
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48 Although mere presence produces crime control benefits, when police undertake tailored and specific interventions at each hot spot, the more effective the program at reducing crime after police depart and in the long-run.174 The more diverse the intervention strategy at place, the greater deterrence it is shown to have in hot spots. This strategy is known as Problem-Oriented Policing and is described later in this report. Problem-Oriented Policing programs that incorporate these tailored responses produce effect sizes that are more than double those produced by hot spots studies focused only on police presence.
The “question of displacement versus deterrence is crucial to evaluation costs and benefits of the policies but also has implications for understanding criminal incentives and behavior.”175 The larger body of literature on hot spots policing and displacement concludes that violent crime simply does not displace geospatially to neighboring areas. Displacement is the idea that interventions at a place will cause crime to shift spatially to a neighboring or new area as offenders evaluate risks related to certain areas and relocate. If anything, hot spots policing actually sees a diffusion of crime control benefits to neighboring areas.
A large, city-wide study conducted in Bogotá, Colombia is an outlier. It did find displacement of property crimes but found no evidence of displacement for violent crimes. This is significant because, there is something specific about violent crimes (“crimes of passion”) that does not spill over into neighboring areas or other parts of the city. This is consistent with the idea that offenders with sustained motives (like theft) respond strategically to targeted police presence and choose to relocate. Crimes of passion might be easier to deter, given that they target a specific person in a specific place. This suggests that policymakers should consider carefully if the crime patterns in their city can be deterred by place-based hot spots policing.
176 Gun violence is usually a “crime of passion,” not one of convenience, and therefore it is likely that the hot spots policing model would effectively address such crimes.
Displacement that is not nearby or geospatial in nature, however, is understudied and not fully understood. Perhaps there is displacement of the crime type – the specific crime of gun violence does not occur but another type of crime is committed instead.177 Or, displacement could occur but much farther away, although they did not find this for violent crime in Bogotá.178
There are three possible counter-effective outcomes of hot spots policing. First, increasing police presence in an area may lead residents to believe crime has increased, thereby producing fear. Out of fear, residents can retreat from the community and the social controls that deter crime can break down.179 Second, if hot spots policing decreases collective efficacy, it could increase crime over the long run and any short-term crime control gains would be offset. “Collective
174 Braga, A. A., Turchan, B. S., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019). Hot spots policing and crime reduction: An update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 15(3), 289–311. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-019-09372-3 175 Blattman, C., Green, D. P., Ortega, D., & Tobón, S. (2021). Place-based interventions at scale: The direct and spillover effects of policing and city services on crime. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(4), 2022–2051. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab002 176 Id.
177 Weisburd, D., & Telep, C. W. (2014). Hot spots policing: What we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214525083 178 Blattman, C., Green, D. P., Ortega, D., & Tobón, S. (2021). Place-based interventions at scale: The direct and spillover effects of policing and city services on crime. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(4), 2022–2051. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab002 179 Wilson, G. L. K., James Q. (1982, March 1). Broken windows. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken- windows/304465/
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49 efficacy” means the ability of a community to operate with common values and regulate behavior within it through strong relationships and mutual trust.180 Weisburd et al. (2004) found that the “hotter” the spot, the lower the rates of collective efficacy.181 Lastly, a concern of hot spots policing is that it may decrease police legitimacy. To do their job, police need support and cooperation from the public, and their willingness to defer to their authority. If this breaks down, long term, a community could become lawless and even attract crime from elsewhere.182 Essentially, can simple everyday police methods produce long-term crime reductions at hot spots without deeper structural change to address inequities at the heart of crime?183 Each of the above counter-effects could in the long-term offset the short-term gains made from hot spots policing.
While the theories underpinning the potential downsides of hot spots policing are valid, none have been studied to the degree where experts feel confident expressing that they ring true. In particular, there are conflicting studies regarding the impact of hot spots policing on police legitimacy. There is not enough research to make a judgment call on these concerns.184 The police and criminal justice practitioners must monitor and evaluate their own community’s fear of crime, collective efficacy, and police legitimacy to understand the possible or likely impacts of a hot spots policing program in their city.
In addition to not knowing the full range of hot spots policing effects, we also do not fully understand the impacts of hot spots policing on rural areas or smaller cities.185 Larger cities are almost always the focus of the literature with few exceptions. One study of San Bernardino County looked at hot spots in a suburban sprawl environment. While lower- activity places may still be “crime hot spots” in smaller jurisdictions, the ability of the police to influence crime at such places may be different. The number of events at each hot spot in San Bernardino County was too small to allow for statistically powerful outcomes. This is likely to be a serious barrier to evaluation in many smaller cities or in rural areas.
One study of Manhattan, Kansas evaluated their Operation Laser Point.186 In it, the police targeted micro-hot spot locations and instituted regular, daily directed patrol visits, community engagement, and problem solving techniques.
Crime decreased after the program began and held fairly steady throughout the program and afterward. Crime also declined in areas outside the hot spots, supporting prior research showing diffusion of crime control benefits. This study
180 Weisburd, D., Hinkle, J. C., Famega, C., & Ready, J. (2011). The possible “backfire” effects of hot spots policing: An experimental assessment of impacts on legitimacy, fear and collective efficacy. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 7(4), 297–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-011-9130-z 181 Weisburd, D., Bushway, S., Lum, C., & Yang, S.-M. (2004). Trajectories of crime at places: A longitudinal study of street segments in the city of Seattle*. Criminology, 42(2), 283–322. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2004.tb00521.x 182 Weisburd, D., Hinkle, J. C., Famega, C., & Ready, J. (2011). The possible “backfire” effects of hot spots policing: An experimental assessment of impacts on legitimacy, fear and collective efficacy. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 7(4), 297–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-011-9130-z 183 Koper, C. S., Lum, C., Wu, X., & Hegarty, T. (2021). The long-term and system-level impacts of institutionalizing hot spot policing in a small city. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 15(2), 1110–1128. https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paaa096 184 Weisburd, D., & Telep, C. W. (2014). Hot spots policing: What we know and what we need to know. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 200–220. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214525083 185 Id.
186 Koper, C. S., Lum, C., Wu, X., & Hegarty, T. (2021). The long-term and system-level impacts of institutionalizing hot spot policing in a small city. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 15(2), 1110–1128. https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paaa096 PAGE 3062
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50 shows that hot spots policing can be effective as a long-term crime control strategy in small cities – positive evidence for suburban areas and in lower crime areas of large cities.187 Problem Oriented Policing
“Problem-Oriented Policing” or POP was developed by Herman Goldstein as an alternative method to traditional reactive efforts to address chronic problems.188 It was his view that American policing had fallen ill with "means over ends" syndrome, placing more emphasis in their improvement efforts on organization and operating methods (number of arrests, average response time) than on the substantive outcome of their work”.189 Essentially, they became so focused on means of policing, like staffing and management, that they were ignoring the things they were meant to solve. POP, he suggested, would refocus police on crime and disorder. This, he believed, would be a paradigm shift that would replace incident-driven, reactive “standard” policing with a model that required police to be proactive.190 POP emphasizes the analysis of crime trends and root causes of crime in a community. It can be applied in neighborhoods, non-residential areas, or whole cities. This approach requires police to take a proactive stance by closely examining violence trends and customizing interventions for specific issues. While law enforcement plays a significant role in overseeing and participating in POP, non-law enforcement entities such as community organizations, healthcare services, other city departments and municipal actors may also have a part to play in addressing some problems. These non-law enforcement partnerships were key to ameliorating crime and disorder, in Goldstein’s vision of POP.
Additionally, POP demands that law enforcement evaluate their strategies and determine whether they have achieved their goals.191 Because of this systematic method, Goldstein emphasized the importance of having personnel trained in research and assessment.192
Most traditionally, the S.A.R.A. method (Scanning-Analysis-Response-Assessment) is used when applying POP. Eck and Spelman developed the method in 1987 as a “framework for uncovering complex mechanisms at play in crime problems and for developing tailor-made interventions to address the underlying conditions that cause crime problems”.193 “Scanning” involves the identification and prioritization of potential problems that may be causing crime within a jurisdiction. “Analysis” involves and in-depth evaluation of problems using a variety of data sources so the most appropriate response can be developed. This is not just about problem outcomes like traditional policing but concerned with the underlying processes that lead to problems. “Response” is the development and implementation of an intervention tailored to the nature of the problem distilled in the analysis phase. Response searches should be broad,
187 Koper, C. S., Lum, C., Wu, X., & Hegarty, T. (2021). The long-term and system-level impacts of institutionalizing hot spot policing in a small city. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 15(2), 1110–1128. https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paaa096 188 Goldstein, H. (1979). Improving policing: A problem-oriented approach. Crime & Delinquency, 25(2), 236–258. https://doi.org/10.1177/001112877902500207
189 Id.
190 Id.
191 Eck, J. E., & Spelman, W. (1987). Who ya gonna call? The police as problem-busters. Crime & Delinquency, 33(1), 31–52. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128787033001003
192 Hinkle, Joshua C., et al. “Problem-Oriented Policing for Reducing Crime and Disorder: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” CrimRxiv, July 2021. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.5277ad69. 193 Eck, J. E., & Spelman, W. (1987). Problem-solving: Problem-oriented policing in Newport News. U.S. Dept. of Justice, National Institute of Justice.
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51 involving law enforcement and non-law enforcement methods, other agencies, community groups and members. “Assessment” is the ongoing monitoring and evaluation of the response effect on targeted problem(s). This process is intended lead to continual improvements and refinement in further iterations of the response.194 The three musts in conducting POP are that problems must be defined specifically, information must be collected from sources outside the department, and agencies must engage in a broad search for solutions. The best solutions tend to involve public and private entities that have a stake in solving the problem. Officers tend to get a more satisfying experience doing POP than traditional police work because they directly observe the results of their work, although it does require additional training and management.195
Recently, it has been theorized that there are four “types” of crime-involved places that problem solving would benefit – crime sites, convergent settings, comfort spaces, and corrupting spots. Crime sites are those which analysts can identify on a map, through hot spot analysis or observation alone. Convergent settings are public places where people come together. For example, there is a bus depot in Cincinnati, Ohio where buses converge, and this space is a meeting spot for delinquent teenagers. Depending on the circumstances, there may or may not be crime occurring at a convergent setting. Third, comfort spaces are those which are private locations that offenders use for a variety of reasons, from hanging out to storing supplies to surveilling for the presence of law enforcement. Offenders prefer that crimes are not committed in comfort spaces.196 Lastly, corrupting spots are those that are often businesses that allow for the facilitation of crime. An example is an auto repair shop that takes stolen car parts. Identifying these locations can, according to John Eck, Ph.D. and Lt. Matt Hammer, Ph.D., go a long way in dismantling place systems underlying crime.197
A meta-analysis of POP suggests a statistically significant average decline (-33.8%) in general crime and disorder in treatment areas as opposed to controls. The analysis did not find significant spatial displacement of crime to other areas, but it did find evidence of some diffusion of crime control benefits to neighboring areas.198 In terms of cost- effectiveness, crime “crackdowns”, or person-based programs where services have to be continually delivered, are less effective at lasting crime decline than programs where lasting change is instituted. The former sees deterrent effects erode when a program ends.199
The greatest deterrence results are found when police combine hot spots policing with POP (situational prevention strategies). Disrupting situational dynamics that are catalysts to gun violence increases the necessary risk or effort in offending, or reduces attractiveness of possible victims. These interventions can range from an officer patrolling the block or city services creating green space or installing better street lighting. Razing abandoned buildings and cleaning
194 Chief Eliot Isaac, Lt. Matthew Hammer M.S., Blake Christenson M.A., & Dr. Tamara D. Madensen. (2017). P.I.V.O.T. Place Based Investigations of Violent Offender Territories (Herman Goldstein Award Submission). Cincinnati Police Department. 195 Eck, J. E., & Spelman, W. (1987). Who ya gonna call? The police as problem-busters. Crime & Delinquency, 33(1), 31–52. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128787033001003
196 Eck, J. (2023, March 24). Professor of Criminal Justice at the University of Cincinnati [Zoom]. 197 Chief Eliot Isaac, Lt. Matthew Hammer M.S., Blake Christenson M.A., & Dr. Tamara D. Madensen. (2017). P.I.V.O.T. Place Based Investigations of Violent Offender Territories (Herman Goldstein Award Submission). Cincinnati Police Department. 198 Hinkle, Joshua C., et al. “Problem-Oriented Policing for Reducing Crime and Disorder: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” CrimRxiv, July 2021. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.5277ad69. 199 Id.
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52 up graffiti are also common implementations of POP in hot spots. Despite this, POP often addresses non-geographic crime concentration – repeat offenders, repeat victims, hot products etc. While POP can be a type of Hot Spots Policing, many hot spots programs do not use the systematic approach of POP, which itself does not favor any particular intervention.200
Potential pitfalls to POP implementation are similar to those for hot spot policing: increased fear of crime, and decreased collective efficacy and police legitimacy.
Social Network Analysis as it Relates to Gun Violence
The epidemiological approach to behavior promises community leaders a better way to prevent gun violence – through Social Network Analysis (SNA) and identification of individuals vulnerable to perpetration and victimization.201 A social network is a bounded number of social actors connected by various relationships (“ties”) – family, friendship, schooling, neighborhood, sexual relationships, etc.202. Theoretically, SNA refers to the statistical analysis of how actors, usually people, are connected and influence each other’s thoughts, feelings, and actions.203,204 “As with other important health problems, most cases of firearm violence arise from large but low-risk subsets of the population”.205 Like many health phenomena, gun violence has been widely studied as a social contagion, in that it has been shown repeatedly to diffuse in a population, transmitted from person to person through social interaction.206 This means that individuals that have been exposed to gun violence, or exposed to individuals that have been perpetrators or victims of gun violence, have greater risk of victimization or perpetration when compared to those that have not.207 A study of homicides in Newark, NJ found that homicides were “not random but…moved [by a] similar process to an infectious disease, with firearms and gangs operating as infectious agents”.208 Direct exposure has a larger positive relationship to involvement with gun violence, although even small amounts of exposure can increase the likelihood of future victimization.209 One study of nonfatal gunshot victim social networks determined that a 1% increase in exposure to
200 Hinkle, Joshua C., et al. “Problem-Oriented Policing for Reducing Crime and Disorder: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” CrimRxiv, July 2021. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.5277ad69. 201 McGee, Zina T., et al. “A Multivariate Analysis of Gun Violence among Urban Youth: The Impact of Direct Victimization, Indirect Victimization, and Victimization among Peers.” Cogent Social Sciences, edited by Jamie Halsall, vol. 3, no. 1, Jan. 2017, p. 1328772. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2017.1328772. 202 Wasserman, Stanley, and Katherine Faust. Social Network Analysis: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press, 1994. 203 Id.
204 Papachristos, Andrew V., et al. “Social Networks and the Risk of Gunshot Injury.” Journal of Urban Health, vol. 89, no. 6, Dec. 2012, pp. 992– 1003. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-012-9703-9. 205 Wintemute, Garen J. “The Epidemiology of Firearm Violence in the Twenty-First Century United States.” Annual Review of Public Health, vol. 36, no. 1, Mar. 2015, pp. 5–19. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031914-122535. 206 Kadushin, Charles. Understanding Social Networks: Theories, Concepts, and Findings. Oxford University Press, 2012. 207 Tracy, Melissa, et al. “The Transmission of Gun and Other Weapon-Involved Violence Within Social Networks.” Epidemiologic Reviews, Jan. 2016, p. mxv009. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxv009. 208 Zeoli, April M., et al. “Homicide as Infectious Disease: Using Public Health Methods to Investigate the Diffusion of Homicide.” Justice Quarterly, vol. 31, no. 3, May 2014, pp. 609–32. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2012.732100. 209 McGee, Zina T., et al. “A Multivariate Analysis of Gun Violence among Urban Youth: The Impact of Direct Victimization, Indirect Victimization, and Victimization among Peers.” Cogent Social Sciences, edited by Jamie Halsall, vol. 3, no. 1, Jan. 2017, p. 1328772. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2017.1328772.
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53 gunshot victims in one’s immediate network increases the odds of becoming a victim by 1.1%. It also found that 10 percent exposure to victims at distances ≤ 2 ties increases the odds of gunshot victimization by 27.0 percent, and 25 percent exposure to victims increases the odds by 81.6 percent.210 While gun violence may seem random, studying the social network underlying it can shed light on just how connected exposure is to future perpetration or future victimization. For example, we know from empirical and anecdotal data that young minority males are the most likely victims of gunshot injuries. Homicide risk is concentrated to a remarkable degree among Black males over the life course. At ages 20 to 29 in 2012, the firearm homicide rate for Black males was at least five times higher than that for Hispanic males and at least 20 times that for White males.211 212
But, we cannot know why, between two young men with identical risk factors, one ends up victimized and one does not. “Defining the at-risk population as including young, minority males living in disadvantaged neighborhoods is not refined enough to capture the extreme concentration of gun violence in urban environments. Urban gun violence trends may be best understood as generated by a very small number of high-risk individuals who participate in high-risk social networks
210 Papachristos, Andrew V., et al. “Tragic, but Not Random: The Social Contagion of Nonfatal Gunshot Injuries.” Social Science & Medicine, vol. 125, Jan. 2015, pp. 139–50. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.01.056. 211 Wintemute, G. J. (2015). The epidemiology of firearm violence in the twenty-first century United States. Annual Review of Public Health, 36(1), 5–19. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031914-122535 212 Papachristos, Andrew V., et al. “Tragic, but Not Random: The Social Contagion of Nonfatal Gunshot Injuries.” Social Science & Medicine, vol. 125, Jan. 2015, pp. 139–50. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.01.056.
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54 and perpetrate their shootings at a very small number of high-risk micro places”.213 This is where social network analysis, rather than examining neighborhoods or census tracts, can be useful in identifying at-risk individuals. SNA theorists claim that violence prevention efforts accounting for social contagion, in addition to demographics, have the potential to prevent more shootings than efforts that focus only on demographics.214 Many studies on gun violence networks show that while all victims are in one very large and possibly additional smaller networks, gun violence is even more concentrated within networks. Only with SNA can we more precisely predict an individual’s risk within a certain network. One study of Boston shootings found that 85% of all gunshot injuries in a sample occurred within just one social network and that the closer one is to a gunshot victim (in number of ties), the greater the probability of one’s own victimization.215 In the Newark, NJ study mentioned above, one third of all fatal and nonfatal shootings occurred in a network of less than 4% of the city’s population. This phenomenon has tremendous implications for public policy interventions aimed at reducing gun violence. If gun violence is affecting one very small subset of a larger network, police, along with city departments and social service organizations can most efficiently target those individuals for maximum violence prevention.
Gangs and Gang Membership
It has been widely studied and concluded that membership in a gang is highly associated with violent victimization.216 Social Network Analysis (SNA) can provide mathematical understanding of gang-related networks and violent involvement in crime. Violence, specifically gun violence, can spread within co-offending networks from gang members to non-gang members.217 A co-offending network is a network of individuals who have committed crimes together in the past, regardless of gang status. Some offenders in these networks are gang members and some are not, as not all criminal associates of gang members are necessarily in gangs.218 Co-offending networks have been well documented in criminology as a base for the sociological processes underpinning crime and violence.219 Co-offending as a mechanism to study gunshot violence has been used several times to understand the effect of past history of violent crime (or gang membership) on future risk of violent crime.
213 Braga, Anthony A., et al. “The Concentration and Stability of Gun Violence at Micro Places in Boston, 1980–2008.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology, vol. 26, no. 1, Mar. 2010, pp. 33–53. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-009-9082-x. 214 Green, B., Horel, T., & Papachristos, A. V. (2017). Modeling contagion through social networks to explain and predict gunshot violence in Chicago, 2006 to 2014. JAMA Internal Medicine, 177(3), 326. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.8245 215 Papachristos, Andrew V., et al. “Social Networks and the Risk of Gunshot Injury.” Journal of Urban Health, vol. 89, no. 6, Dec. 2012, pp. 992– 1003. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-012-9703-9. 216 Decker, S. H., Pyrooz, D. C., & Moule, R. K. (2014). Disengagement from gangs as role transitions. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 24(2), 268–283. https://doi.org/10.1111/jora.12074
217 Papachristos, A. V., Braga, A. A., Piza, E., & Grossman, L. S. (2015). The company you keep? The spillover effects of gang membership on individual gunshot victimization in a co-offending network: gang membership, networks, & victimization. Criminology, 53(4), 624–649. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12091
218 Id.
219 Warr, M. (2002). Companions in crime: The social aspects of criminal conduct. Cambridge University Press.
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55 One co-offender network study of gang members in Newark, NJ found that gang membership increases the odds of gunshot victimization by 344%.220 That study also concluded that one or more ties to a gang member, or the closer in proximity to a gang member (even when not direct) within the co-offending network significantly increases the probability that one will experience fatal or non-fatal gunshot victimization.221 Almost one third of all fatal or non-fatal shootings occurred in a network comprised of less than 4% of the city’s population. If a subset of a city’s gun violence is gang related, it is clear that performing SNA and locating individuals most at risk for intervention would be an effective and logical step toward reducing gun violence.
Domestic Violence and Firearm Accessibility
Nicholas Kristoff with the New York Times writes that we already bar felons from owning guns, and we should go a step further and bar violent misdemeanor offenders from possessing guns.222 California has taken this step. In California, there is a domestic violence misdemeanor firearm prohibition, required firearm relinquishment for domestic violence misdemeanors, and required reporting of domestic violence misdemeanors to national databases.
Stalking, domestic violence, and alcohol abuse are particular warning signs of future violence. A study on femicide in intimate partner relationships states that “an abusive partner’s access to a firearm is a serious threat to victims of domestic violence, making it five times more likely that [they] will be killed”.223 States that bar those subject to active domestic violence restraining orders from accessing guns have seen a 13% reduction in intimate partner homicides involving firearms.224 Removal of guns from domestic violence offenders is one of the most frequently used and effective strategies as rated by local police throughout the country.225 Those who have been an abuse victim of an intimate partner need intervention to “prevent further escalation of violence. Healthcare practitioners should question individuals not only about domestic violence but also about abusers’ access to a gun and should provide appropriate referrals to services and information regarding serious risk in such
220 Papachristos, A. V., Braga, A. A., Piza, E., & Grossman, L. S. (2015). The company you keep? The spillover effects of gang membership on individual gunshot victimization in a co-offending network: gang membership, networks, & victimization. Criminology, 53(4), 624–649. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12091
221 Id.
222 Kristof, N. (2023, January 24). Opinion | a smarter way to reduce gun deaths. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/opinion/gun-death-health.html 223 Campbell, J. C., Webster, D., Koziol-McLain, J., Block, C., Campbell, D., Curry, M. A., Gary, F., Glass, N., McFarlane, J., Sachs, C., Sharps, P., Ulrich, Y., Wilt, S. A., Manganello, J., Xu, X., Schollenberger, J., Frye, V., & Laughon, K. (2003). Risk factors for femicide in abusive relationships:
Results from a multisite case control study. American Journal of Public Health, 93(7), 1089–1097. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.93.7.1089 224 Zeoli, A. M., McCourt, A., Buggs, S., Frattaroli, S., Lilley, D., & Webster, D. W. (2018). Retracted: Analysis of the strength of legal firearms restrictions for perpetrators of domestic violence and their associations with intimate partner homicide. American Journal of Epidemiology, 187(7), 1449–1455. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwx362
225Koper, C. S., Woods, D. J., & Kubu, B. E. (2013). Gun violence prevention practices among local police in the United States. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, 36(3), 577–603. https://doi.org/10.1108/PIJPSM-06-2012-0052 PAGE 3068
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56 situations.”226, 227 The most important thing clinicians can do is inform a victim of domestic violence that Extreme Risk Protection Orders exist.
Police can only act on active restraining orders and Extreme Risk Protection Orders, so direction should be given to victims on how to obtain one. An Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) is a civil order that temporarily prohibits individuals who pose a danger to themselves or others from purchasing and possessing firearms. In California, law enforcement or clinicians, a family or household member, employers, co-workers, and employees and teachers at secondary and post-secondary schools can petition for an individual to be under an ERPO. 228 In California, these laws can
also apply to dating partners (not true in every state).
There is both objective and anecdotal evidence that these actions work when they happen and do reduce violence.
Hospital Based Violence Intervention Programs (HVIPs)
The rationale for a Hospital-Based Violence Intervention Program is a public health one. Their goal is to improve the pre- existing social determinants of health (such as poverty, a low level of education, and substance abuse) that may have led to violent victimization and, in doing so, prevent reinjury.229 One of the strongest predictors of future injury is past injury, and victims of violent injury are more than twice as likely to die a violent death compared to matched control subjects.79,230 Gunshot victims or victims of violent assault are almost always taken to trauma I hospitals. The window after an injury is considered a valuable time for intervention, while that patient is still being treated in the hospital. It has really been just over the last 20 years that these programs have emerged to take advantage of that time to break the cycle of violence.231
Hospital-Based Violence Intervention Programs identify violently injured patients and intervene at their bedside immediately following a violent victimization injury. Typically, the hospital assigns patients a case manager or social worker who evaluates patients based on the patient’s perception of their own psychosocial, emotional, or financial needs and connects them with providers in the community that are capable of addressing those needs. Various models tend to emphasize that case workers need to be culturally competent and it is beneficial if they come from similar environments as patients.
226 Tracy, M., Braga, A. A., & Papachristos, A. V. (2016). The transmission of gun and other weapon-involved violence within social networks.
Epidemiologic Reviews, mxv009. https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxv009 227 Campbell, J. C., Webster, D., Koziol-McLain, J., Block, C., Campbell, D., Curry, M. A., Gary, F., Glass, N., McFarlane, J., Sachs, C., Sharps, P., Ulrich, Y., Wilt, S. A., Manganello, J., Xu, X., Schollenberger, J., Frye, V., & Laughon, K. (2003). Risk factors for femicide in abusive relationships:
Results from a multisite case control study. American Journal of Public Health, 93(7), 1089–1097. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.93.7.1089 228 California code, penal code—Pen § 18100. (n.d.). Findlaw. Retrieved March 27, 2023, from https://codes.findlaw.com/ca/penal-code/pen-sect- 18100/
229 Gorman, E., Coles, Z., Baker, N., Tufariello, A., Edemba, D., Ordonez, M., Walling, P., Livingston, D. H., & Bonne, S. (2022). Beyond recidivism: Hospital-based violence intervention and early health and social outcomes. Journal of the American College of Surgeons, 235(6), 927– 939. https://doi.org/10.1097/XCS.0000000000000409
230 Juillard, C., Cooperman, L., Allen, I., Pirracchio, R., Henderson, T., Marquez, R., Orellana, J., Texada, M., & Dicker, R. A. (2016). A decade of hospital-based violence intervention: Benefits and shortcomings. Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, 81(6), 1156–1161. https://doi.org/10.1097/TA.0000000000001261
231 Id.
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57 Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital is the only Trauma I facility serving the whole city and county of San Francisco. Since 2005 the Wraparound Program has been implemented as its HVIP. They offer enrollment in the program to all victims of intentional injuries that are between 10-35 years old that they determine via a screening process to be at high-risk of reinjury. The victim must also be injured or live in San Francisco. Notably, patients excluded are those whose injuries are a result of domestic violence or child abuse, or if self-inflicted. Patients must consent to participation and then an initial intake and needs assessment is done. The program provides up to one year of intensive case management including mentorship, advocacy, and services from community providers. There are challenges in evaluating this program because bias is introduced by self-selection (which would likely decrease the rate of reinjury) and the fact that only patients screened to be high-risk are selected (which would likely increase the rate of reinjury).
However, the injury recidivism rate decreased from 8.4% to 4.9% after its institution at Zuckerberg in 2006. A study of the Violence Intervention Advocacy Program at Boston Medical Center similarly finds that it effectively serves the population choosing the program.
232 The HVIP at University Hospital in Newark, New Jersey has also been studied and found achieve patient-stated short-term health and social goals in half of its enrollees during 2020.233 “Recidivism has been used as an outcome measure of HVIPs for several years. Although it adds a layer of complexity, its measurement has been linked to the cost–benefit ratio for hospitals and communities to use in obtaining grant funding and convincing administrators of the utility of HVIPs.”234 In Alameda County, a CBO program called Caught in the Crossfire does hospital bed interventions similar to the Wraparound Program but, it is not directly managed by hospitals; they rely on hospital buy-in.235 Their stated goals are to convince the victims, their friends, and their family not to retaliate, to reduce hostilities, and provide victims pathways to a safer life.236
Focused Deterrence (Custom Notifications)
The theory of change in focused deterrence is that violence can be prevented if individuals believe that the costs of violence outweigh its potential benefits.237 The strategy identifies those most at risk of becoming a perpetrator of gun violence and delivers a “hard” message – that violence will not be tolerated and any of it will be met with swift arrests and criminal justice consequences. There is also the “soft” message delivery, that the police and (usually a CBO) are here to help connect the individual with resources that they can then leverage to transition away from violence.
Historically, custom notifications were delivered as part of a larger “call-in”, where group members are all called to the same place and a message is communicated that “affected communities want the violence to stop, there is help available to group members who want it, and meaningful legal consequences will follow if the violence does not stop.”
232 Pino, E. C., Fontin, F., James, T. L., & Dugan, E. (2021). Boston violence intervention advocacy program: Challenges and opportunities for client engagement and goal achievement. Academic Emergency Medicine, 28(3), 281–291. https://doi.org/10.1111/acem.14162 233 Gorman, E., Coles, Z., Baker, N., Tufariello, A., Edemba, D., Ordonez, M., Walling, P., Livingston, D. H., & Bonne, S. (2022). Beyond recidivism: Hospital-based violence intervention and early health and social outcomes. Journal of the American College of Surgeons, 235(6), 927– 939. https://doi.org/10.1097/XCS.0000000000000409
234 Id.
235 Intervention. (n.d.). Youth ALIVE! Retrieved March 28, 2023, from https://www.youthalive.org/caught-in-the-crossfire/ 236 Id.
237 Braga, A. A. (2008). Pulling levers focused deterrence strategies and the prevention of gun homicide. Journal of Criminal Justice, 36(4), 332– 343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2008.06.009
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58 These, however, assume group violence is at a certain height and also require a large amount of pre-work to be done to gather the right people and communicate the messages tailored to the full group as well as to the individuals. Therefore, they are not tactical because it is not possible to get one together to prevent violence likely to occur within a day or two.
Instead, it has been valuable instead to focus just on individuals in their homes with appropriate personnel, such as probation, parole, and police officers, as well as community voices and positive “influentials” such as family members.
Custom notifications have many advantages on their own. They can be delivered to anyone, regardless of whether they are on parole, probation, or in a larger group. They can be delivered to a smaller number of impact players, who often are not under court supervision and cannot be mandated to attend a call-in. They are flexible and implemented with short notice and can be delivered by law enforcement alone, community figures alone, or a combination. They can incorporate an “influential”, someone close to the individual who represents a consistent, positive influence.
Incorporating influentials as partners with community members, law enforcement, and social service providers gives a strong message about making good choices and the consequences of violence. They are powerful tools for interrupting gang “beefs”, heading off retaliation after a violent event, calming down outbreaks of violence and bolstering the core gun violence program. They can incorporate highly specific information meaningful to the person being notified, such as the help they personally may need or particular legal vulnerabilities they face if they continue offending. These messages can be delivered to parolees or probationers as they prepare to reenter society. 238 Lastly, custom notifications
can create spillover violence reduction effects on group members who are socially tied to others engaged in violence, so you reach more than just those individuals that were selected for direct contact. This is especially true if Social Network Analysis is used to identify them.
It is emphasized in the literature that partnering with a CBO, such as California Partnership for Safe Communities, is ideal. A social service provider, community group, faith-based organization, or street outreach worker can increase the credibility of law enforcement and connect more genuinely with the individual. Mobilizing such organizations is critical so that the “soft” message is extended, and the individual feels cared about, related to, and that someone wants to help them. They can deliver antiviolence messages on their own or alongside law enforcement. In Cincinnati, community representatives take the lead in the notification process, speaking to impact players on their own before police, social services, and street outreach workers visit. Street outreach workers often have history of being group-involved or incarcerated and can be able to reach impact players not easily located by law enforcement. Their personal histories better able them to relate to impact players on the falsehood of the street code and what the street code has cost them.
Street Outreach Teams/Violence Interrupters
“Street Outreach organizations do a lot more for public safety than just trying to stop gun violence: they are anchoring institutions for neighborhood safety and well-being, dealing with issues related to housing, mental health, education, and justice.”239 Street Outreach Workers are credible messengers, often formerly incarcerated or have been involved in or affected by violence in the past, that help identify violence and interrupt or mediate it in real time. They have inroads
238 A New York initiative replicates the work of Chicago’s Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN), which achieved large violence reductions selecting districts through delivery of individualized messages to parolees about legal exposure and services available. Chicago districts participating in PSN communication saw a 37% reduction in homicide and a 30% decrease in recidivism among notified offenders. 239 Op-ed: What we know (And don’t know) about street outreach and gun violence prevention. (2021, October 25). Chicago Tribune. https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-chicago-gun-violence-street-outreach-20211025-6pylamxs5jazhhyya3x3nb3eya- story.html
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59 to vulnerable groups that police do not, act as a conduit between group members and other participants in a city’s violence reduction program, and help people make the transition away from street violence.
The overall theory of change is a public health one – that violence is like a contagious disease and its spread can be interrupted.240 Operating beneath this strategy is the aim to increasing informal social controls – or fortifying a community’s collective norms and standards of conduct and encouraging community members to uphold them. When done well it “marries the goal of strengthening a community’s moral voice against violence with the imperative to offer help to its highest risk population. It also lends itself to concrete violence interventions, such as controlling rumors during moments of conflict, calming people down to defuse potential retaliation, and mentoring people at high risk of hurting someone or being hurt”.241
“Safe Streets” in Baltimore, Maryland, and “Ceasefire” in Chicago, Illinois both used the same model and showed statistically significant decreases in the overall level of violence in treatment areas. Unfortunately, this is not a consistent outcome. While many programs do reflect the essential nature of credible messengers and violence interruption, others have either null or negative results. Often, those that have negative effects are programs that stand alone, not within broader violence reduction programs. It is also not useful to work with gangs as gangs – as that gives them recognition and can even increase gang cohesion. Also, programs that prioritize job or educational outcomes but don’t focus primarily on street violence do not achieve their stated goal to reduce it. Even where street work has been successful and demonstrated positive effects, it has been too limited in scope and impact to reduce overall levels of violence in a city.
242
Many street outreach programs do not work or communicate with law enforcement or other entities with the same goals. While they may have principled reasons for this, it undermines the interagency partnership that has been the “hallmark of effective violence interventions”. Understandably, Street Outreach workers can be wary of police – it could threaten their credibility with the population they serve and need access to. Cities have ameliorated much of this by working with street workers to establish clear boundaries and clear times when they do work in tandem. Both police and street workers establish protocols in advance of their work, about how and under what conditions they will collaborate, what information they will share, and how they will address the public concern about their working together. Street workers protect the names of people they work with and do not share information with police or help them build and solve cases. Both sides need training on these protocols to maintain accountability and partnership.243 The “triangle protocol” in Los Angeles establishes the city violence reduction initiative as a partner to the LAPD and their streetwork agencies, linking victims with services, brokering peace, and communicating with police about incidents. New York City has a similar organization with the Mayor’s Office to Prevent Gun Violence, working in tandem with streetworkers and the NYPD. Recent Evaluation has shown this structure to be highly effective in preventing retaliatory shootings.244
240 Butts, J. A., Roman, C. G., Bostwick, L., & Porter, J. R. (2015). Cure violence: A public health model to reduce gun violence. Annual Review of Public Health, 36(1), 39–53. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031914-122509 241 Considering the place of streetwork in violence interventions. (n.d.). National Network for Safe Communities (NNSC). Retrieved March 31, 2023, from https://nnscommunities.org/guides/considering-the-place-of-streetwork-in-violence-interventions/ 242 Id.
243 Id.
244 Id.
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60 Andrew Papachristos, Ph.D. describes a pilot project where twice a week he and partners sit down and do network analysis with the outreach staff. He says that data is starting to be brought to outreach. “We do know,” he says, “that when police and outreach are doing their jobs right they’re actually working with the same people.” Including street outreach in shooting reviews where mapping is done has shown to be beneficial in Boston and Oakland.
Operation Peacekeeper in Stockton, California exemplifies these best practices when it comes to streetwork. At one time, they used to walk a neighborhood with the police after a shooting to offer care and services. They observed that this compromised their capital with the community and the Peacekeepers ended that with support from the police.
Nevertheless, the two organizations still successfully navigate violence prevention in partnership and produce public safety. The Stockton Police Department does not expect or want information from Peacekeepers and believes that their clients need to be protected to preserve Peacekeepers’ legitimacy. After gun violence, Peacekeepers’ priority is stopping further violence or retaliation. They offer services and support but do not enter active crime scenes. Peacekeepers and police collaborate on “shooting reviews” to track recent violence and prevent new violence. Information is unidirectional, flowing only and carefully from police to streetworkers so they can focus on those most at risk.
Sometimes, Stockton streetworkers accompany police to deliver in-person messages known as “custom notifications” to people with the highest risk of gun violence involvement. The process has been developed to warn high-risk individuals that violence will not be tolerated and to offer community resources to support them and keep them safe. Oakland, California also does this as part of their gun violence reduction work. 245
Chicago CRED is a Street Outreach initiative that incorporates life skills training, as well as educational and employment programming.246 Early evidence suggests that street outreach reduces gun violence or at least saves the lives of participants. 18 months after beginning the program, participants in the Chicago CRED and similar programs have victimization rates 50% lower than non-participants. 63% of CRED participants that did not have a high school diploma prior to the program received one while in the program. Participants were 79% less likely to be arrested for shootings and homicides.247
Chicago CRED, despite its success and more than 250 active employees on the street, hasn’t decreased the overall level of gun violence. At its scale in Chicago, for every participant in the program there are 20 more in the same neighborhood lacking equal services. Also, violence is entrenched in societies beyond the individual and their ties to others and violent situations. Although not a panacea, Dr. Papachristos of Northwestern University says that Street Outreach is a necessary component for any city looking to adopt a multi-pronged violence prevention program, but any program that doesn’t consider the full neighborhood context will fall short.248 In Oakland, YouthALIVE!, the same CBO that does Hospital-Based Violence Prevention, does violence interruption.249
245 Considering the place of streetwork in violence interventions. (n.d.). National Network for Safe Communities (NNSC). Retrieved March 31, 2023, from https://nnscommunities.org/guides/considering-the-place-of-streetwork-in-violence-interventions/ 246 A nonprofit for reducing gun violence in chicago. (n.d.). Chicago CRED. Retrieved May 7, 2023, from https://www.chicagocred.org/ 247 A nonprofit for reducing gun violence in chicago. (n.d.). Chicago CRED. Retrieved May 7, 2023, from https://www.chicagocred.org/ 248 Op-ed: What we know (And don’t know) about street outreach and gun violence prevention. (2021, October 25). Chicago Tribune. https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-chicago-gun-violence-street-outreach-20211025-6pylamxs5jazhhyya3x3nb3eya- story.html
249 Intervention. (n.d.). Youth ALIVE! Retrieved March 28, 2023, from https://www.youthalive.org/caught-in-the-crossfire/ PAGE 3073
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61 Root Causes of Gun Violence
Contrary to popular thought, mental illness is not a primary contributor to interpersonal firearm violence.250,251 Access to firearms and firearm ownership remain the most potent determinants of an individual’s likelihood to engage in any type of gun violence.252 Other predictors for future gun violence involvement are prior history of violence (especially domestic violence253) and substance abuse. The leading cause of death for teenagers and young adults is firearm violence, and homicide risk is extremely concentrated among Black males regardless of age, although it does diminish in later years.254 The next most at-risk subset is Hispanic males, but the rate for Black men remains five times higher than for Hispanic men and 20 times higher than for white men.255 The most common environment for gun violence is minority and economically disadvantaged neighborhoods. However, SNA reveals that the vast majority of Black and Hispanic men in these neighborhoods do not become victims or perpetrators, but rather the phenomenon is highly concentrated among people within a much larger network that includes, but is not limited to, that neighborhood.256 The Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence (EFSGV) released a report in 2020 citing seven central root causes to gun violence – income inequality, poverty, underfunded public housing, under-resourced public services, underperforming schools, lack of opportunity and perception of hopelessness, and easy access to firearms by high-risk people.257 Notably, only the last of these is something that police have any direct power over, and that power has been expressly curved by the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in three states.258 However, California officials remain able to confiscate firearms from domestic abusers unless that ruling is appealed and upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court. The remainder of these root causes must be the jurisdiction of community-based organizations and a long term partnership with their municipalities or counties. A police department could, however, lead the way for these partnerships.
250 Swanson, Jeffrey W., et al. “Mental Illness and Reduction of Gun Violence and Suicide: Bringing Epidemiologic Research to Policy.” Annals of Epidemiology, vol. 25, no. 5, May 2015, pp. 366–76. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.03.004. 251 Wintemute, Garen J. “The Epidemiology of Firearm Violence in the Twenty-First Century United States.” Annual Review of Public Health, vol. 36, no. 1, Mar. 2015, pp. 5–19. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031914-122535. 252 Id.
253 The presence of a gun in a domestic violence situation increases the risk of homicide by 500%. A study of women in 67 California domestic violence shelters found that abusive intimate partners used handguns to harm, threaten, or scare 32.1% of study participants; long guns were used to harm, threaten, or scare 15.9% of participants. 39.1% reported that the abusive intimate partner owned a firearm during the relationship, almost twice the rate of gun ownership in California. Of participants in gun-owning households, 64.5% said a gun had been used against them. (National Coalition Against Domestic Violence)
254 Wintemute, Garen J. “The Epidemiology of Firearm Violence in the Twenty-First Century United States.” Annual Review of Public Health, vol. 36, no. 1, Mar. 2015, pp. 5–19. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031914-122535. 255 Id.
256 Braga, A. A., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2010). The concentration and stability of gun violence at micro places in Boston, 1980–2008.
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 26(1), 33–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-009-9082-x 257 “EFSGV.” Root Causes of Gun Violence, The Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence, https://efsgv.org/. Accessed 12 Feb. 2023. 258 Sneed, Tierney. “Latest Supreme Court-Related Ruling Overturning Gun Regulations Worries Domestic Violence Survivor Advocates | CNN Politics.” CNN, 12 Feb. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/12/politics/domestic-abuse-guns-5th-circuit-supreme-court/index.html.
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62 Appendix C Visualizations
Hot Spot Visualizations
PAGE 3075
APPENDIX N
63 Acton Street & Russell Street Harmon Street & Sacramento Street Durant Street & Sather Street Channing Street & San Pablo Avenue Channing Street & 8th Street Oregon Street & Park Street (San Pablo Park) PAGE 3076
APPENDIX N
64 63rd Street & King Street
Social Network Analysis Visualizations
People of Interest/Incidents
People (Suspects, victims, involved parties)
Shooting Events (shots fired, firearm assault/injury, firearm fatality) PAGE 3077
APPENDIX N
65 Denser, More Concentrated Network within Larger Network
PAGE 3078
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66 Appendix D Criteria Matrix
Criteria
Alternatives Cost
Effectiveness:
Stays under
$1M
Effectiveness:
Reduces
shootings by
10%
annually
Weight = *3
Political
Feasibility
(DCM will
accept
change)
Likelihood
of long-
lasting
effects
Preserves
police
legitimacy
Keeps fear
of crime
from
rising
Preserves
neighborhood
cohesion and
collective
efficacy
Hot Spots Policing
7.5 + 2(4) +3
18.5/24
.77
ü
Very
confident in
assessment
N/A
Some
confidence in
assessment
HIGH first
year
MEDIUM
ongoing
2.5(3)
7.5 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Very
confident
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Very
confident in
assessment
HIGH
3 Problem-oriented
Policing
6 + 2(2) + 3(3)
19/24
.79
ü
Very
confident in
assessment
N/A
Some
confidence in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 2(3)
6 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence
in this
assessment
HIGH
3 Some
confidence
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence in
assessment
HIGH
3 SNA and Focused
Deterrence/Custom
Notifications
9 + 2(5)
19/24
.79
ü
Very
confident in
assessment
N/A
Some
confidence in
assessment
HIGH
3 3(3)
9 Very
confident
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Some
confidence in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 SNA and Social
Services
1(2) +3(4)
14/27
.52
Notably low, but
goes with focused
deterrence
Not confident
in assessment
LOW
1 Some
confidence in
assessment
LOW
1 1(3)
3 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Some
confidence
in
assessment
LOW
1 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Very
confident in
assessment
HIGH
3 Removing
Firearms from
Very
confident in
assessment
Very
confident in
assessment
Very
confident
Very
confident in
assessment
Very
confident
Very
confident
Very
confident in
assessment
PAGE 3079
APPENDIX N
67 Homes of Domestic
Abusers
3(6) + 1
19/27
.70
HIGH
3 LOW
1 1(3)
3 in
assessment
HIGH
3 LOW
1 in
assessment
HIGH
3 in
assessment
HIGH
3 HIGH
3 Street Outreach
Teams
1 + 2 + 3(4) + 6
21/27
.78
ü
Some
confidence in
assessment
LOW
1 Some
confidence in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 2(3)
6 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Some
confidence
in
assessment
MEDIUM
2 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Very
confident in
assessment
HIGH
3 Hospital-based
Violence
Intervention
3(5) + 1(2)
17/27
.63
X already
happening
Very
confident in
assessment
LOW
1 Very
confident in
assessment
LOW
1 1(3)
3 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Some
confidence
in
assessment
LOW
1 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Very
confident
in
assessment
HIGH
3 Very
confident in
assessment
HIGH
3 PAGE 3080
APPENDIX N
68 References
A nonprofit for reducing gun violence in chicago. (n.d.). Chicago CRED. Retrieved May 7, 2023, from https://www.chicagocred.org/
AFRO, S. to the. (2021, September 8). Op-ed: Tackling gun violence together. AFRO American Newspapers. http://afro.com/op-ed-tackling-gun-violence-together/
Blattman, C., Green, D. P., Ortega, D., & Tobón, S. (2021). Place-based interventions at scale: The direct and spillover effects of policing and city services on crime. Journal of the European Economic Association, 19(4), 2022–2051. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab002
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