Berkeley City Council
March 18, 2025

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benefits such as improved air quality and needed shade (for buildings and people) during heat events.

Connection to climate change
Due to climate change, projections indicate that the number of extreme heat days, warm nights, and heat waves will increase exponentially in the next few decades. In addition to this increased frequency and duration, heat waves are also expected to occur in months not typically associated with extreme heat.

Connection to wildland-urban interface fire
While hot temperatures do not specifically start fires, they are associated with decreased moisture in vegetation, increasing its flammability and the length and severity of fire season.
44 Warming temperatures combined with increased development in the wildland- urban interface are projected to increase fire risk in most of the Bay Area.

Connection to poor air quality
While naturally-occurring ozone that exists higher in the Earth’s atmosphere is beneficial to the climate, ground- level ozone can be extremely harmful to human health. Extreme heat can lead to the formation of ground- level ozone when emissions from industrial facilities, power utilities, cars, trucks and other sources chemically react in the presence of heat and sunlight. Ground- level ozone contributes to smog and other secondary air pollutants.

Extreme heat can also cause stagnant air conditions, causing the smog to stay low longer, and increase community exposure.
45 Community reactions to extreme heat – including

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use of cars for transport and use of cooling systems in buildings – can compound the already heightened creation of ozone. For this reason, the availability of non- polluting modes of transportation and ultra- efficient building systems can mitigate both the direct impacts of the heat on the community and the worsened air quality.

Exposure to increased ozone concentrations is associated with pneumonia, asthma, allergic rhinitis, and other respiratory diseases, as well as premature death. Elderly people, infants, and children are particularly susceptible. 46 Connection to utility disruption
Increased power demand during hot weather and extreme heat events can overload electrical equipment, causing power outages. The local utility company, PG&E may also initiate a public safety power shutoff during these high heat events in areas that have high fire risk to prevent wildfires. Outages can also occur when circuit breakers or other protective equipment shuts off the flow of power in order to prevent damage to the electrical system.

B.4.b
Location of extreme heat
Two important factors influence how hot it is in certain parts of Berkeley: the urban heat island effect and thermal belting.

Urban heat island effect
The urban heat island effect often makes temperatures hotter in the urban, more dense parts of a city. To visualize what parts of Berkeley might more likely suffer from the urban heat island effect, Map 16 shows the tree coverage throughout Berkeley. Urban tree

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canopy directly reduces surface and air temperatures through shading and absorption, combating the urban heat island effect. In addition, this shading can reduce cooling loads in buildings and provide shade for individuals as well. Trees also improve air quality that often worsens during extreme heat. A dense tree canopy can result in fewer heat-related emergencies.
47 In Berkeley, census tracts have between 4% and 48% tree coverage. Map 16 shows the current percentage of tree coverage for each census tract in Berkeley. Table 3 below describes the information on Map 16.

Area Percentage Tree Cover
The Berkeley flats and areas to the south of the UC
Berkeley campus
Less than 10%
Western part of Hopkins street north to the Berkeley border 11% to 20% area immediately north of the UC Berkeley campus 11% to 20% Panoramic Hill 11% to 20%
Elmwood 11% to 20%
UC Berkeley campus 21% to 30%
Areas to the north/south of the western part of Derby street 21% to 30% Claremont 31% to 40%
Berkeley Hills north of Marin Avenue 31% to 40%
Berkeley Hills south of Marin Avenue 41% to 50%
Berkeley Hills north of Cedar 41% to 50%

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Thermal belting
Although the Berkeley hills have a greater tree canopy, temperatures are often higher there than in the rest of the city, due to a phenomenon known as thermal belting. Thermal belting occurs in areas where there is a hillside and a valley below. Heat is absorbed by the ground during the day, and the heat energy radiates up from the soil at night. As the warm air rises, the radiation of the heat causes the air closest to the ground to cool. Since cold air is heavier than warm air, cooler air sinks down the hillside into the valley. As the cooler air fills the valley, the warm air heads upwards. This warm air becomes trapped on the hilltop and is referred to as a thermal belt. For Berkeley, this means that during extreme heat events, the Berkeley hills are likely to be hotter at night than the rest of the city.

Map 17 illustrates the thermal belting phenomenon in Berkeley during a heat wave in September 2022. The graphic is taken from Weather Underground website’s Wundermap, which displays temperatures and wind directions at citizen weather monitoring stations throughout Berkeley.

Map 17 shows temperature differentials between the Berkeley hills, flats, and coast at 11:30 pm at night on Monday, September 5, 2022. The Berkeley hills have temperature readings in the upper 80s and 90s while the flats and waterfront have temperatures in the 60s and 70s F. In some cases, temperature differentials are more than 20 degrees F in a distance of ten city blocks.

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B.4.c Extent of Extreme Heat and Anticipated Intensities The National Weather Service uses different tools to describe and forecast the extent and intensity of extreme heat events.

Heat Index
The National Weather Service Heat Index considers relative humidity alongside air temperature to establish how hot it feels to a human body. Exhibit 12 is the Heat Index chart. The chart demonstrates the interaction between temperature and relative humidity, and how increasing temperatures and increasing relative humidity creates the increased likelihood of heat disorders with prolonged exposure or strenuous activity.

Along the X axis, the chart displays temperatures ranging from 80 degrees F to 100

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degrees F. Along the Y axis, relative humidity is displayed from 40% to 100%. The chart shows how perceived temperatures (Heat Index temperatures) increase as the humidity increases. Examples from the chart:
• 80 degrees F with 40 percent humidity creates a Heat I ndex temperature of 80 degrees
• 80 degrees F with 100 percent humidity creates a Heat Index temperature of 87 degrees
• 90 degrees F with 65 percent humidity creates a Heat Index temperature of 103 degrees
• 90 degrees F with 95 percent humidity creates a Heat Index temperature of 127 degrees
• 100 degrees F with 40 percent humidity creates a Heat Index temperature of 109 degrees
• 100 degrees F with 65 percent humidity creates a Heat Index temperature of 136 degrees
The chart also shows the likelihood of heat disorders at each perceived temperature, using colors and descriptions ranging from:
• Light yellow (“caution”) – Heat Index 80-90 degrees F • Medium yellow (“extreme caution”) – Heat Index 91-103 degrees F • Orange (“danger”) – Heat Index 104-124 degrees F
• Red (“extreme danger”) – Heat Index 126-137 degrees F

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Exhibit 13. National Weather Service Heat Index

Forecasting Heat Risk
The National Weather Service HeatRisk Prototype is a new tool that forecasts risk of heat- related impacts in a given day for a given area. In forecasting risk, the HeatRisk tool considers temperature, how unusual the heat is for the time of year, and the duration of the heat, including daytime and nighttime temperatures. The index supplements official National Weather Service heat information to provide risk guidance for decision- makers and heat sensitive populations who needs to take actions at lower levels.

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HeatRisk defines the risk of heat-related impacts using the following categories.

Number Color Description
0 Light
Green
Little to no risk from expected heat.
1 Yellow Minor - This level of heat affects primarily those individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
2 Orange Moderate - This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts possible in some health systems and in heat-sensitive industries.
3 Red Major - This level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure. 4 Magenta Extreme - This level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts likely in most health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure.

B.4.d Previous Extreme Heat Events
Berkeley has experienced extreme heat events regularly, and has experienced extreme heat each year from 2019 through 2023. However, there have been no federally-declared extreme heat disasters in Berkeley since the last update. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Storm Database describes some of the most notable events:
• In July 2006, there were five consecutive days with temperatures above 110 F in the Bay Area, and approximately 75 heat -related deaths during this period. The last comparable extreme heat event prior to this 2006 event occurred for two days in 1972.48
• In August 2017, the Bay Area experienced record- setting high temperatures. 49 A Berkeley weather station on the University of California, Berkeley campus near Hearst and Euclid A venues reported a temperature of 108.5 F.50 The National Weather Service issued an excessive heat warning that lasted five days for the Bay Area . D uring this time there were six heat -related deaths in nearby San Francisco and San Mateo Counties.

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• In June 2019, a combination of high pressure and strong offshore flow resulted in an early season heat wave across the Bay Area . Multiple daily records were broken across the region and multiple power outages were reported due to the heat. Approximately 26,000 people across the region lost power , followed by an additional 30,000 on the following day. Three fatalities were reported in the region. • From August 14- 19, 2020, a prolonged and oppressive heat wave swept the Central Coast and Bay Area for almost a week , with widespread record-breaking temperatures observed across the region. Multiple days of triple -digit afternoon highs were recorded inland with some coastal locations even reaching the mid- 90s. Several days of hot and dry weather further dried vegetation in the ar ea, increasing fire danger. During this event, a surge of monsoonal and tropical moisture from a former Tropical Storm moved northward with sufficient instability to generate multiple high- based and dry thunderstorms that produced several thousand lightning strikes over the Greater Bay Area. Many locations saw wind gusts of 40-50 miles per hour (mph) with isolated areas seeing gusts of 60-75 mph.

This prompted the San Francisco Bay Area forecast office to issue a rare severe thunderstorm warning. At the same time, all of the wildfires burning simultaneously across the state gave the Bay Area the worst air quality in the world. • In September 2020, a large area of high pressure over the west brought excessive heat and dry conditions to the region. Numerous record high temperatures were broken, including 13 broken records on Sunday September 6th alone.

Temperatures reached 110 degrees F across the interior, with 90s along the coast to start the weekend, and even reaching 100 degrees in San Francisco on Sunday.

Once the ridge began to break down towards the end of the weekend, offshore winds increased flaring up some of the wildfires that were ignited during August's lightning storm. These winds also enabled smoke from various wildfires across the state to blanket much of the Bay Area. The skies were tinted orange and red with ash accumulating for many locations.
• In July 2021, strong high pressure building over the region in early to mid- July brought warm to hot temperatures across the interior. Daytime highs rose into the 100s with locations across the East Bay up to 110 degrees between July 9- 11.

Overnight lows remained warm, particularly across higher elevations where temperatures were still in the 70s and 80s in the early mornings. Additionally, prolonged dry conditions resulted in near record dry fuels for July. This along with breezy afternoon winds prompted the Diablo Fire in Contra Costa County.

B.4.e
Probability of Future Events
Climate models from the Cal-Adapt tool51 from the California Energy Commission predict the average number of extreme heat days (above 88.3 degrees F) in Berkeley to

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continually increase by the end of the century. The specific number of extreme heat days expected in Berkeley depends on the level of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted from human activities into the atmosphere:

Medium Emissions Scenario (GHG emissions peak in 2040 and then decline) • 2035-2064: 7 extreme heat days in Berkeley
• 2070-2099: 9 extreme heat days in Berkeley
High Emissions Scenario (GHG emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century) • 2035-2064: 9 extreme heat days in Berkeley
• 2070-2099: 16 extreme heat days in Berkeley
B.4.f Vulnerabilities
People
Across California, the highest risk of heat -related illness occurs in the typically cooler regions found in coastal areas like Berkeley. Vulnerability is increased for these communities as they are relatively unaccustomed to extreme heat. As a result, they are less acclimatized or potentially less aware of preventative behavior and are less likely to have air conditioning or cooling in their homes.
52 Public health impacts associated with extreme heat events include premature death, cardiovascular stress and failure, and heat -related illnesses such as heat stroke, heat exhaustion, and kidney stones.
53 Studies have also found links between rising
temperatures and a range of mental health issues including mental fatigue, aggression,

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and even higher rates of suicide.54
People with disabilities, people with access and functional needs, people with chronic diseases, the elderly, and children under five years old are the most at risk to heat-related illnesses.55 People working outdoors and unhoused populations are also more exposed and at risk. Research also indicates that communities of color, and the poor suffer more during extreme heat events because of lack of access to common heat adaptation strategies, such as tree canopy for shading, air conditioning and insulation in buildings, or car ownership to travel to public cooling centers that allow them to escape the heat. 56 These increased vulnerabilities to heat events among lower -income communities are illustrated using the University of California, Los Angeles Heat Maps Tool 57. The tool examines excess emergency room visits during heat events based on location.

The data in the T able 5 below, tracked from 2009-2018, shows impacts in various parts of Berkeley:

Zip
Code
Rate of Excess ER
visits per Extreme Heat
Day
Total Excess ER
visits (2009-2018)
94710 6 617
94702 8 1,446
94703 4 1,413
94704 2 660
94705 3 701
94707 2 545
94708 2 487
94709 2 333

Map 18 visualizes the dat a above, demonstrating higher rates of excess hospital visits on

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hot days for people in central, south, and west Berkeley. Although the thermal belting phenomenon described above creates hotter temperatures in the Berkeley hills, heat waves appear to have outsized impacts on the health of people living in the Berkeley flats.

This likely relat es to historic patterns of disinvestment on people with low incomes and people of color.

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Structures
Well insulated buildings and those with access to air conditioning , or buildings with ventilation, can make a huge difference to individuals during periods of extreme heat.

Berkeley has some public buildings with air conditioning that can serve as cooling centers during extreme heat events:
• North Berkeley Senior Center, 1901 Hearst Ave, Berkeley, CA 94709 • South Berkeley Senior Center, 2939 Ellis St, Berkeley, CA 94703 • Central Library, 2090 Kittredge St, Berkeley, CA 94704 • Claremont Branch Library, 2940 Benvenue Ave., Berkeley, CA 94705 • Tarea Hall Pittman South Branch Library, 1901 Russell St., Berkeley, CA 94703 Map 19 shows the location of these sites on a map of Berkeley using blue dots.

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As extreme heat becomes more frequent and severe, Berkeley build ings, including City facilities, will need to add cooling capacity. This effort will need to be done strategically over the coming decades to find building upgrade solutions that are clean, efficient, and functional during electrical grid outages. For exi
sting buildings and new construction,
consideration will be given to heat pump technology, a highly -efficient electric HVAC system (up to 400% efficient58 in energy efficient buildings) with both heating and cooling

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capabilities. Cooling approaches will also include natural ventilation and passive cooling techniques whenever possible, such as shading, orientation, and building envelope.

Strategic planning is also needed to ensure the readiness of critical City facilities during grid failure. The ability for these facilities to island off of the grid and rely on clean backup energy during a power outage would improve the City’s energy assurance during extreme heat events. The City is currently partnering with Ava Community Energy (its local community choice aggregator and electricity provider) to design and install solar panels and backup batteries at some critical municipal facilities to advance this energy assurance goal.

Systems
High temperatures can damage critical infrastructure, including transportation systems.

During a Fall 2017 extreme heat event, BART and Caltrain operated trains at reduced speeds in order to avoid damage to the tracks.59 Unreliable public transit during extreme heat could cause more people to drive, adding to the heat and worsening air quality.

Extreme heat events also create needs for additional infrastructure maintenance, particularly for roadways where heat can contribute to deformation or premature failure. 60 Extreme heat can also lead to power outages. Due to Berkeley’s historically mild climate, many buildings are not equipped with efficient cooling systems, and therefore rely on inefficient and sometimes ineffective methods of indoor cooling, such as window air conditioning units. This increases electricity demands which in turn can overwhelm the power grid, causing power outages when people need their cooling devices the most.

Power outages can lead to many cascading and significant consequences including

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impacts to electrically powered fuel and water systems as well as communication infrastructure. The loss of power can also be devastating for people with disabilities who rely on electricity to power medical devices.” The Utility Disruption section of this plan has more information about the impacts of power outages.

Natural, historic, and cultural resources
Berkeley’s tree canopy provides some measure of protection during extreme heat events but also is vulnerable to extreme heat. Sudden limb failure is a commonly -noted phenomenon in trees during extreme heat events. The precise mechanism leading to limb failure is not well understood, but poses hazards to trees, as well as people trying to escape the heat by sitting in their shade.

Berkeley and its immediate surrounding cities have bodies of water that are usually places to cool down and seek relief from the heat. Locations such as Lake Anza or the Bay are prime examples. However, extreme heat can cause harmful algae to bloom when water temperature is warmer than usual. When this kind of algae is present, community members cannot enjoy or seek relief in the water.

Activities that have value
As noted earlier, studies have shown that extreme heat causes mental fatigue and aggression. These feelings and behaviors can impact family and social dynamics, work productivity, and participation in community events and outdoor activities. Researchers have also linked high heat to decreased academic performance, with lower-income, older, and other marginalized populations being disproportionately impacted. 61

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B.4.g Potential Impacts and Losses
According to California Climate Change Center, by mid- century with climate change, extreme heat in urban centers could cause two to three times more heat -related deaths than occur today. 62 Population patterns in Berkeley could also increase the potential impacts. The senior population has grown steadily in Berkeley as well as the population experiencing homelessness. These groups suffer greater impacts of extreme heat.

Development has the potential to decrease the impacts of extreme heat, as new buildings are designed to mitigate heat and energy use.

A study of the 2006 heat wave in California estimated excess statewide healthcare costs of $120 - $175 million, lost productivity costs nearing $10 million, and the societal cost of over 650 premature deaths , which exceeded $5 billion. 63 Unfortunately, little useful
research exists on economic impacts of high heat at the local level – research focuses on aggregated losses at the national or international level.

GFOA’s Extreme Heat Analysis
According to the First Street Foundation’s Risk Factor tool, Berkeley has a “moderate” risk for heat. This analysis defines a hot day as temperatures above 83 degrees F, and the likelihood of this kind of hot day is increasing. “Feels like” temperatures have also been rising, but First Street also posits that homes in Berkeley have moderate vulnerabilities to heat based on factors like shade and proximity to bodies of water.

Exhibit 8 shows First Street’s rising expectations for heat waves in the future. It shows:
• 30 years ago, there was a 40% likelihood of a 3+ day heat wave

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• This year, there is a 62% likelihood of a 3+ day heat wave • In 30 years, there will be a 90% likelihood of a 3+ day heat wave

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Exhibit 14. Likelihood of 3+ days above 83 degrees Fahrenheit

Data was used from First Street to simulate the number of heat days along the following thresholds, where the indicated temperature is the “feels like” temperature, so includes humidity (which increases the perceived temperature). F irst Street provided an estimate of the average number of days between 80 and 90 degrees F and above 90 degrees F for the next 30 years. Table 6 focuses on the next ten years. The difference between what First Street’s algorithm would have predicted for past years was compared to what actually happened, to estimate the potential variation between what First Street’s algorithm predicts for the future and what actually happens.

“Feels Like” Temperature Annual
Average
Now
Annual
Average in
10 Years
Annual
90th
Percentile
Now
Annual
90th
Percentile
in 10 Years
80-85 Degree Days 17 18 25 26
85-90 Degree Days 8 10 13 16
90-100 Degree Days 6 7 11 12
100+ Degree Days 0 1 2 2
Unfortunately, not much useful research exists on economic impacts of high heat at the local level – research seems to focus on aggregated losses at the national or international

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level. Because the available data was so broad, it was not used as the basis for a local estimate.

B.5 Poor Air Quality
B.5.a Description of Poor Air Quality and Related Hazards Poor air quality is a growing concern in Berkeley and in California. According to the California Air Resources Board, 90% of Californians breathe unhealthy levels of outdoor air during some parts of the year. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) offers continuous monitoring for 11 pollutants, set by state and federal standards to protect the health and climate. More information about those 11 pollut ants and how they compare to federal or state standards is available on the BAAQMD website.

In the Bay Area, the air pollutants of greatest concern include ozone, particulate matter, and toxic air contaminants.

• Ozone is formed in the atmosphere through chemical reactions between pollutants emitted from vehicles, factories and other industrial sources, fossil fuels, combustion, consumer products, evaporation of paints, and many other sources.

Ozone is the main ingredient in summertime smog.
• Particulate matter is
composed of an assortment of tiny airborne particles that vary in size and mass (ultrafine, fine, and coarse), physical state (solid or liquid), chemical composition, toxicity, and how they behave in the atmosphere. These particles originate from a variety of manmade and natural sources, including fossil fuel combustion, refining crude oil, residential wood burning and cooking, wildfires, volcanoes, sea salt, and dust. Residential wood burning is the largest source of particulate matter in the Bay Area during the winter.
• Toxic Air Contaminants are g enerally present in very small amounts in the air, but are extremely hazardous to human health. In the Bay Area, the toxic air contaminant of greatest overall concern is exhaust from diesel engines.

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Poor air quality is a major public health concern. Poor air quality can irritate the eyes, nose, and throat, cause shortness of breath, aggravate asthma and other respiratory conditions, and affect the heart and cardiovascular system. Poor air quality can last for a few hours or a few weeks, depending on its source. It can also be a chronic issue, for example in places near industry or highways. The air quality can also change quickly due to weather conditions, such as rain or wind.

Connection to climate change
According to the National Climate Assessment, the global warming observed over the industrial era is unequivocally caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities—primarily burning fossil fuels. Climate change will affect human health by increasing air pollution, affecting ozone and/or particulate matter. Scientists are also predicting that climate change will contribute to longer, hotter, and drier fire seasons, which will increase the risk of severe wildfires and exposures to wildfire smok e. While climate change can harm everyone’s health, its impacts exacerbate long -standing disparities that result in inequitable health outcomes for historically marginalized people, including people of color, Indigenous Peoples, low-income communities, and sexual and gender minorities, as well as older adults, people with disabilities or chronic diseases, outdoor workers, and children.

Connection to extreme heat
As the world’s climate has shifted toward warmer conditions, the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events have declined over much of the US, while the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat have increased. Extreme heat can lead to negative health

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risks including heat -related illness and death. People who regularly struggle to af ford energy bills—such as low -income, and older fixed-income households and communities of color—are especially vulnerable to more intense extreme heat events and associated health risks, particularly if they live in homes with poor insulation and inefficient cooling systems.

B.5.b Location of Poor Air Quality
Poor air quality can impact all of Berkeley, for those both indoors and outdoors. South and west Berkeley are generally more exposed to everyday poor air quality from outdoor pollutants due to the areas’ proximity to the train, highways, and industrial facilities.

The California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool CalEnviroScreen is a screening methodology that can be used to help identify California communities that are disproportionately burdened by multiple sources of pollution. Map 20 shows the CalEnviroScreen percentile for Berkeley. Higher percentiles indicate that an area experiences more pollution burden. Generally, the everyday pollution is higher in west Berkeley and lower in the eastern areas of the city. Areas in west and south Berkeley carry higher pollution burdens with percentiles in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, shown in the shades of orange color. The Berkeley hills show percentiles of 10s, 20s, and 30s. The eastern portion of the Berkeley flats shows percentiles in the 40s.

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While day-to-day pollution is more common in Berkeley’s western neighborhoods, smoke from wildfires often concentrates in the Berkeley Hills, due to the marine layer inversion effect that prevents air higher in the air from mixing with lower air near the ground, effectively trapping smoke above it.
64 The map below from September 2021 provides an
example of the differences in air quality in Berkeley, with air quality numbers above 150 clustered in the hills. Air quality over 150 means that the air is unhealthy for the entire population.

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Older housing stock, which accounts for much of the homes throughout Berkeley, is more likely to have leaky windows and doors, letting in poor air from outside. In addition to outdoor pollution and smoke, our indoor environments are often filled with chemicals from consumer products, gas appliances, building materials, smoking, furniture, and other household materials. Given that most people spend more time indoors than outside, the quality of indoor air is important. Indoor air quality monitors and air filtration systems are on the market, but are expensive.

B.5.c Extent of Poor Air Quality and Anticipated Intensities The Air Quality Index (AQI) issued by the Environmental Protection Agency is used for reporting daily air quality. Metro areas with a population of more than 350,000 are required to report the daily AQI. The AQI reports how clean or polluted the air in a given area is, and any associated health effects. The AQI focuses on health effects that may be experienced within a few hours or days after breathing the polluted air.

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Daily
AQI
Color
Levels of Concern Values of
Index
Description of Air Quality
Green Good 0 to 50 Air quality is satisfactory, and air pollution poses little or no risk.

Yellow Moderate 51 to 100 Air quality is acceptable. However, there may be a risk for some
people, particularly those who are
unusually sensitive to air pollution.

Orange Unhealthy for Sensitive
Groups
101 to 150 Members of sensitive groups may
experience health effects. The
general public is less likely to be
affected.

Red Unhealthy 151 to 200 Some members of the general
public may experience health
effects; members of sensitive
groups may experience more
serious health effects.

Purple Very Unhealthy 201 to 300 Health alert: The risk of health effects is increased for everyone.

Maroon Hazardous 301 and
higher
Health warning of emergency
conditions: everyone is more likely
to be affected.

B.5.d Previous Poor Air Quality Events
Everyone in Berkeley can be impacted by poor air quality – some neighborhoods experience moderate or unhealthy air quality on a regular basis due to proximity to various sources of pollutants like highways and industry, and there have also been several extreme examples of poor air quality that impacted the entire City due to nearby wildfires.

In September and October of 2017, the wildfires in North Bay sent smoke to Berkeley, causing unhealthy air for sensitive groups. In November 2018, smoke from the Camp Fire brought very unhealthy air quality. Schools were cancelled, and there were calls for the entire population to avoid outdoor activities for multiple days. In October 2019, smoke from the Kincade Fire brought unhealthy air to Berkeley for a few days. In September and

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October of 2020, multiple northern California wildfires brought very unhealthy air to the Bay Area for over twenty consecutive days. In August and September 2021, smoke from northern California wildfires created moderate air quality in the Bay Area for a few days.

In December 2022, the Bay Area had unhealthy air mostly due to local residential wood burning and active wildfires in the state.

There have been no federally-declared poor air quality disasters in Berkeley since the last update.

B.5.e Probability of Future Events
Spare the Air was created in 1991 by BAAQMD to alert residents when air quality is forecasted to be unhealthy and to share information on ways to reduce air pollution. Since 1991, there has been at least one Spare the Air issued for the Bay Area per year.

Year Number of Spare the Air Days
2023 3
2022 17
2021 16
2020 52
2019 26
2018 13
2017 18

According to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco65, frequency of heavy smoke events has increased the San Francisco-Oakland metro area from about one day every four years to about 12 days each year. In the last decade, the average person in the San Francisco- Oakland metro area went from experiencing about three days per year of medium smoke to an average of 13 days per year.

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With climate change and the increasing number of extreme heat days, the number of poor air quality days is likely to increase the number of days with Spare the Air notices.

B.5.f Vulnerabilities
People
Poor air quality creates negative health impacts for everyone, including irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat, coughing, chest tightness, shortness of breath, fatigue, and headaches. Poor air quality can also exacerbate other respiratory problems like asthma.

According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), some studies have shown a link between poor air quality and severe cardiovascular issues. Groups most at risk during poor air quality events include the elderly, children, infants, pregnant women, people with preexisting conditions, people who work or live outdoors, and people who live in neighborhoods that have been historically overburdened by pollution and other environmental contaminants, such as west and south Berkeley.

Structures
The effect of air pollution on physical structures may be seen in terms of discoloration, material loss, structural failing and soiling. The smell and residue of smoke can also permeate homes, which may cause a financial burden to clean or replace items.

Natural, historic, and cultural resources
According to the EPA, there is a robust body of research that links the negative impacts that air pollution can have on natural ecosystems. Pollutants can put excess levels of acids into bodies of water, damage soils, and harm plants, trees, and other wildlife.

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Berkeley is lucky to be in an area of rich environmental diversity, including close proximity to regional parks. All of these natural resources can suffer due to poor air quality.

Activities that have value to the community
Berkeley provides great access to a wide variety of outdoor activities, including parks, recreation facilities, commerce, outdoor dining, and other unique experiences. These activities can be unsafe during poor air quality events, causing residents and visitors to miss out on the opportunity to visit and enjoy these special parts of Berkeley. The Parks, Recreation, and Waterfront Department hosts a number of activities for children and families throughout the year. During the COVID-19 emergency, when there were poor air quality days, activities had to be cancelled as it was unsafe to have children indoors or outdoors. Additionally, businesses t hat rely on outdoor activities experience financial losses during these events.

B.5.g
Potential Impacts and Losses
The biggest impacts related to poor air quality are those on human health. Southerland et al., published a study in 2021 66 on the harmful impacts of pollution in the Bay Area.

According to these estimates, more than 2,500 people die and 5,200 children develop asthma every year due to traffic-related air pollution exposure in the Bay Area.

Map 22 from the Environmental Defense Fund shows the percentage of new childhood asthma caused by air pollution in the East Bay. Most of Berkeley is in dark orange category, meaning over 40 percent of new asthma cases in Berkeley are attributable to air pollution. Some pockets of the Berkeley flats near major intersections rise to fifty percent. The eastern edges of Berkeley in the peaks of the hills drop to thirty percent.

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Until recently, most of the research on the health impacts of air pollution were not wildfire- specific. Increased fire activity has led to an uptick in published research on health outcomes. A growing body of scientific evidence links wildfire smoke exposure to various adverse health effects. It is often assumed that while most healthy people will recover from short -term exposure to wildfire smoke, others might experience more severe symptoms, especially people with preexisting medical conditions or other f actors, like inadequate housing or lack of access to health care.
67

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B.6 High Wind
B.6.a Description of High Wind
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), wind is air in motion, traveling between areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. Bigger differences in air pressure create strong winds . High - and low -pressure systems are created by ascending and descending air , caused most often by differences in temperature. Wind is described using its horizontal speed and the direction it is coming from.

National Weather Service Definitions
The National Weather Service (NWS) defines “high winds” as:
• S ustained wind speeds of 40 miles per hour (mph) or greater lasting for one hour or longer, or
• Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater for any duration.

Sustained wind speed is different than a wind gust. A wind gust is a brief increase in the wind speed typically around 20-30 seconds.

The NWS issues a wind advisory when there are sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph, or gusts of 46 to 57 mph.

Seasonality of High Wind
In Berkeley, high wind events are typically associated with the seasons.

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• In the winter, high winds come with weather systems and cold fronts, generally between November through March.
• In the summer, temperature and pressure differences between the Pacific Ocean and the interior valleys to Berkeley’s east create stronger afternoon and evening winds coming from the west.
• Primarily in the fall, dry offshore foehn winds, known as the “Diablo Winds,” occur.

Diablo Winds are associated with fire weather.

Connection to climate change
Climate change creates more intense and variable weather conditions (both wet and dry), including high wind.

Connection to wildland urban interface fire
Diablo winds can create significant fire danger. Diablo winds are dry and fast. Fires that ignites when Diablo winds are blowing will spread more quickly. See the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Section of this plan for details.

Connection to utility disruption
High wind events can lead to downed trees and/or power lines, causing power disruption.

Sometimes when high wind events coincide with extreme heat and dry conditions, in some cases the local utility PG&E may initiate a public safety power shutoff (PSPS) event, temporarily shutting of power in areas of high fire risk to prevent wildfires. Similarly, Enhanced Powerline Safety Settings (EPSS) allow PG&E power lines to automatically turn off power within one-tenth of s second. This can happen when there’s a hazard, like a tree branch falling into a power line, which can cause a fire. These settings are in high- fire risk and surrounding areas.

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B.6.b Location of High Wind
The location and elevation allow high winds to be felt throughout Berkeley. The westerly wind carries oceanic moisture toward the city, and as the wind flow hits the Berkeley Hills, it splits, producing northward and southward winds. The hot and dry Diablo W inds, particularly common in the spring and fall, affects the Berkeley Hills area more, while the cold storms, more common in the winter, increase wind speeds in the flats.

B.6.c
Extent of High Wind and Anticipated Intensities
Beaufort Wind Scale
The Beaufort Wind Scale measures wind severity according to visible environmental impacts, without the use of instruments:
• 0 is calm, meaning calm wind. Smoke rises vertically with little if any drift. • 1 is light air, with speeds of 1 to 3 mph. The direction of wind is shown by smoke drift, not by wind vanes. Little if any movement with flags. Wind barely moves tree leaves.
• 2 is light breeze, with speeds of 4 to 7 mph. Wind felt on face. Leaves rustle and small twigs move. Ordinary wind vanes move.
• 3 is gentle breeze, with speeds of 8 to 12 mph. Leaves and small twigs in constant motion. Wind blows up dry leaves from the ground. Flags are extended out. • 4 is moderate breeze, with speeds of 13 to 18 mph. Wind moves small branches.

Wind raises dust and loose paper from the ground and drives them along. • 5 is fresh breeze with speeds of 19 to 24 mph. Large branches and small trees in leaf begin to sway. Crested wavelets form on inland lakes and large rivers.

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• 6 is strong breeze with speeds of 25 to 31 mph. Large branches in continuous motion. Whistling sounds heard in overhead or nearby power and telephone lines.

Umbrellas used with difficulty.
• 7 is near gale, with speeds of 32 to 38 mph. Whole trees in motion. Inconvenience felt when walking against the wind.
• 8 is gale, with speeds of 39 to 46 mph. Wind breaks twigs and small branches.

Wind generally impedes walking.
• 9 is strong gale, with speeds of 47 to 54 mph. Structural damage occurs, such as chimney covers, roofing tiles blown off, and television antennas damaged. Ground is littered with many small twigs and broken branches.
• 10 is whole gale, with speeds of 55 to 63 mph. Considerable structural damage occurs, especially on roofs. Small trees may be blown over and uprooted. • 11 is storm force, with speeds of 64 to 75 mph. Widespread damage occurs. Larger trees blown over and uprooted.
• 12 is hurricane force, with speeds of over 75 mph. Severe and extensive damage.

Roofs can be peeled off. Windows broken. Trees uprooted. RVs and small mobile homes overturned. Moving automobiles can be pushed off the roadways.

Damage to Trees and Vegetation
The extent of damage caused by a high wind event is related to what meteorologists call antecedent conditions. Essentially, if previous weather conditions have been wet, the impacts of high winds on trees, for example, could be higher since the ground is weak with saturation. Timing can also play a role. If it’s the first high wind event of the season, there might be more foliage, limbs, or branches that fall as the wind blows for the first time in a while.
68 B.6.d Previous High Wind Events
The strong wind can create dangerous conditions, especially when combined with low humidity and dry fuels. This combination could escalate fires if ignition occurs or damage

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infrastructure and human health. Therefore, wind speed is constantly monitored. Using data collected by observational instruments placed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, we identified several days with sustained winds exceeding 25 miles per hour (Category 6, considered a strong breeze with speeds of 25 to 31 mph). The highest wind speed recorded was 31 mph on March 21, 2023, and 29 mph on January 26, 2021.

Additionally, there are numerous days with wind gusts surpassing 31 miles per hour, the highest being 63 mph on March 14, 2013, and 61 mph on March 21, 2023. The winter months (December, January, February, and March) statistically experience prevailing strong winds of 20 mph or higher.

The winter months of 2023 had several severe storms that included flooding, high winds, and landslides. During January to April 2023, there were three federally declared disasters in Alameda County, including DR-4699, DR-4683, and EM-3591.

B.6.e
Probability of Future Events
As temperatures increase worldwide due to climate change, changes in rising sea levels, humidity, and storminess are unavoidable as the physical processes are all interlinked .

Given the prevalence of previous high-wind events, it is expected that each year will bring more. By analyzing past and present weather patterns, scientists predict an increase in wind speed and wave height in coastal areas, including the Bay Area and Berkeley.

B.6.f Vulnerabilities
People
High winds can pose significant safety risks to people. Large branches can break off or

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topple trees, putting people outside or inside adjacent buildings at significant risk. Winds may dislodge other heavy objects, and dust and debris can cause injuries to the eyes, throat, and mouth.

High winds can be particularly dangerous for people experiencing homelessness, people who work outside, and people who live in mobile or unanchored homes.

Structures
Downed trees or blowing objects can damage infrastructure, including homes, public and private buildings, and vehicles.

Systems
High winds can topple trees, which in turn can take down power lines and/or cause other objects to do the same. Downed power lines pose an immediate risk to people in the area, and can also have widespread impacts via power outages.

Natural, historic, and cultural resources
High winds can severely damage or kill trees, such as when major limbs fail or the trunk topples to the ground. For example, in 2022 a redwood tree fell at Willard Park after a windstorm. In the 2023 storms, the City lost an 80-foot Guadalupe Cypress in Caesar Chavez Park and UC Berkeley lost a redwood tree in the UC Botanical Garden.

According to the University of California Statewide Integrated Pest Management Program
69, wind can harm gardens, landscapes, and other parts of the natural environment. Wind can damage bark, flowers, foliage, fruit, and limbs of most trees or

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shrubs.

B.6.g Potential Impacts and Loss Estimates
Climate change is expected to increase the potential impacts and losses associated with high wind, as it brings more varied and extreme weather. Changes in population patterns and in development are not expected to drastically change the potential impacts of high winds.

Because high wind events are generally associated with either winter storms or fire weather, the impacts from high winds alone are not tracked specifically.

However, winter storms in 2023 illustrate potential impacts. Berkeley’s Parks, Recreation, and Waterfront Department estimates that these storms toppled 85 trees on City property, many of them falling around the Berkeley waterfront. This count does not include trees that fell on private property. There is not a comprehensive list of damages or estimates of total damage, but reported damage includes one tree falling onto a house and another on a pickup truck.
70 From December 2022 to April 2023, there were more than 300 calls to 311 about broken branches and trees, more than any winter since 2015-2016.

Damage from these storms resulted in three federally -declared disasters in Alameda County and created a backlog of tree removal work that limited staff capacity and time for tree planting and maintenance.

GFOA’s High Wind Analysis
High winds can cause damage in the community. High winds can occur relatively frequently. For example, data from the National Weather Service indicates that there have

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been 118 wind events in the entire San Francisco Bay Shoreline zone since 2011, with an average speed of 43 miles per hour.

Of course, not every wind event in this zone will impact Berkeley. An examination of wind data from a local weather station for the last 24 months showed that the average windspeed of the 10 sustained wind events was about 30 mph. For comparison, FEMA regards 67 mph as a very strong wind event that would be likely to cause signific ant damages. During the same 24- month period, the San Francisco Bay Shoreline Zone experienced three events over 40 mph. The biggest was on April 11, 2002. On that day in Berkeley, the maximum sustained wind period was around 40 mph. It should be noted that sustained winds (customarily measured over ten minutes) are not as strong as short wind gusts that can happen during the wind event. For example, during a recent two-year period the top speed of a wind gust was an average of 4.7 mph greater than the speed measured for the associated sustained wind event.

To estimate the number of wind events per year on average Berkeley can expect to experience, 24 months of local weather station data was compared to the same period from the National Weather Service data. The wind events for the San Francisco Bay Shoreline zone were fully felt in Berkeley in four out of eleven cases (36%). That same portion was then applied to the entire 12-year period of history to arrive at an assumption that there will be an average of 3.5 wind events per year, on average.

An assumption was made that there is a 3% chance of a wind event with sustained winds of 67 mph or greater, which is equivalent to assumptions from FEMA’s estimates of losses for Berkeley. 50% of wind events were assumed to be 45 mph or less, which is consistent

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with historical data. To estimate damage, estimates were taken from FEMA for damages from a very strong wind event (67 mph), based on total exposed value and expected rates of loss, which was $43,200 per event. That loss was then scaled down to expected damage from a 45mph event. According to the Beaufort Wind Scale, winds at 45 mph result in damages such as twigs and small branches broken from trees. It was therefore assumed that damage was minimal at winds of this speed. These assumptions resulted in the loss exceedance curve shown in Exhibit 14.

Exhibit 15. Loss Exceedance Curve for High Wind, 10 Year and 1 Year Risks (millions of dollars)
Chance Losses will Exceed Dollar Amount on Horizontal Axis

Table 10 pinpoints key ideas from Exhibit 14 above. For example, over a one-year period, there is a 5 percent chance that there will be a wind event causing $600,000 of damage, but there is a 90 percent chance of zero damage. However , over a ten-year period, the risk increases. There is a 5 percent chance that there will be a high wind event causing $3.5 million in damage, and a 90 percent chance that there will be at least $600,000 in damage due to high winds.

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Time Horizon 5% 10% 50% 90%
1-Year $0.6M $0.3M $0.1M $0**
10-Year $3.5M $2.7M $1.3M $0.6M
1 *Not Applicable (NA) means that the loss exceedance curve intersects zero before this point. See the graph to see where the curve meets the vertical axis for the chance of losses exceeding zero.
2 **Potential damages are so low that we round to zero

B.7 Rainfall-Triggered Landslide
B.7.a Description of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide
According to the United States Geologic Survey, a landslide is a movement of a mass of rock, debris, or earth down a slope. The term “landslide” includes five modes of slope movement, including falls, topples, slides, spreads, and flows. They are further subdivided by the type of geologic material (bedrock, debris, or earth).

In the United States, the most frequent and widespread damaging landslides are started by prolonged or heavy rainfall. The majority of rainfall -triggered landslides are shallow (less than a few meters deep), small, and move rapidly. Rainfall -trigged landslides often turn into debris flows (fast moving slurries of water, soil, and rock) as they travel down steep slopes.

Rainfall, snowfall, changes in water level, erosion, ground water, and human activity can contribute to landslides. Examples of human activity include grading for roads, home construction, and landscaping, all of which can decrease hillside stability by adding weight to the top of a slope, destabilizing the bottom of a slope, and/or increasing water content of the underlying materials.

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Connection to climate change
Climate change is creating more intense and varied weather conditions, including intense rainfall, which can contribute to landslides.

Connection to wildland-urban interface fire
Tree roots and vegetation can be important to providing support and preventing erosion.

Fires can burn trees and vegetation, removing that hillside support. Post -fire landslide hazards include fast-moving, highly destructive debris flows that can occur in the years immediately after wildfires in response to high intensity rainfall events.

B.7.b
Location of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide
The California Geological Survey has produced two maps that together provide helpful data on where landslides are most likely to be triggered by winter storms.

The Landslide Inventory is an ongoing project to collect and display current and historical landslide data for the State of California. Map 23 shows the Landslide Inventory for Berkeley, focused on the Berkeley hills. Landslide movement could range from a few inches to tens of feet in any given year, but ground surface displacements as small as a few inches are enough to break typical foundations.

On Map 23:
• A ctive landslides are shown in brown.
• Dormant landslides are shown in orange, yellow, or light yellow. These are deep- seated or dormant landslides that are not currently moving, but that may have moved in historic time or in recent geologic time. These dormant landslides could be reactivated by changing surface or subsurface conditions.

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Generally speaking, in Berkeley, there are active and dormant landslides spread throughout locations in the Berkeley hills.

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Map 24 shows the overall susceptibility to deep seated landslides in areas throughout Berkeley. Rock strength and slope are combined to create classes of landslide susceptibility. These classes express the generalization that on very low slopes, landslide susceptibility is low even in weak materials, and that landslide susceptibility increases with slope and in weaker rocks. Very high landslide susceptibility, classes VIII, IX, and X, includes very steep slopes in hard rocks, and moderate to very steep slopes in weak rocks. Generally speaking, these classes in Berkeley are concentrated in northeast Berkeley and in the Berkeley hills. The further east in the Berkeley hills have greater susceptibility with steeper slopes and weaker rocks (shown with darker red colors).

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B.7.c Extent of Rainfall-Triggered Landslides and Anticipated Intensities The most dangerous landslides in terms of life safety are fast -moving, generally shallow debris flows. These are triggered when intense rainfall follows storms that have already saturated hillsides. Debris flows initiate in concave slope areas where subsurface water is concentrated, elevating pore pressure above the natural strength of the soil. Once initiated, debris flows can travel great distances at relatively high velocities, flowing down drainages and onto alluvial fans and damaging any structures lying in their paths.

Preexisting and recently -active, larger landslides (such as those shown in Map 23) are more often triggered by exceptionally long periods of seasonal rainfall, and sometimes do not start moving until long after the rain has stopped. These types of slides may not move as rapidly as debris flows, but can damage large areas and many structures, resulting in extensive landslide losses.

B.7.d
Previous Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Events
The most recent landslide in Berkeley occurred in January 2023 and it was federally declared disaster DR-4683. In December 2022 and January 2023, six atmospheric river events brought over 15 inches of rain to Berkeley, along with wind gusts over 55 miles per hour. A large chunk of hillside located on the eastern edge of Zaytuna College’s Upper Campus broke loose. The landslide traveled onto the private property immediately downslope, destroying an outbuilding and damaging the home. In total, residents were evacuated from one impacted property, along with seven more threatened properties further downslope). There were no injuries but homes remained evacuated for multiple weeks while the slide was remediated.

Another landslide occurred in Berkeley in January 2017. At the time, the overall rainfall in

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California was on pace to be the wettest season in over 100 years on record. Rain saturated the soil in Berkeley and throughout the State. The slide occurred on an undeveloped lot in the North Berkeley hills and threatened to close the street situated in the path of the slide. Repairs to the hillside were completed in late 2018. There were no injuries.

During the winter of 1997-1998, another landslide occurred in North Berkeley, when soils became oversaturated from heavy rains brought by the El Nino weather system. One home was significantly damaged and had to be demolished. Residents had to evacuate two additional homes but were able to reoccupy these homes after the hillside was stabilized. No one was hurt.

In 1996, a minor slide collapsed the Euclid Avenue retaining wall, blocking the roadway.

At other times over the 20th century , landslides from rainfall-saturated ground in the Berkeley Hills damaged and sometimes destroyed homes and public infrastructure, including streets, sewers, and other utilities. Most of the areas damaged were later rebuilt or built over.
71 B.7.e Probability of Future Events
Berkeley has a number of active landslides (shown in Map 23), which means they are currently moving or movements have been recorded in the past. There are a number of deep-seated landslides that continuously move, with the rate of movement affected by rainfall and groundwater conditions.

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There have been 4 damaging landslides,1 triggered by rain, in Berkeley since 1982. Using this rate of three landslides in 41 years, there is a 7% annual chance of a landslide.

However, climate change will likely increase this risk. Climate change results in more intense rainfall events, creating favorable conditions for more devastating landslides.

There is not currently a way to quantify how climate change increases the probability of a damaging landslide.

B.7.f
Vulnerabilities
People
People may be hurt or killed during a landslide. Damage to roads and sidewalks may prevent people from evacuating, and will challenge responders to access the area.

Structures
Landslides are most likely to damage residential or privately -owned structures because the landslide risk predominately affects residential areas. According to a USGS report approximately 6,000 structures are located in areas at moderate to high risk of landslides.
72 Property owners are responsible for mitigating landslide risks to their own properties.

Homeowner’s insurance often excludes landslides, forcing property owners to manage damage and costs without coverage.

The hazard is greater in steeply-sloped areas, although slides may occur on slopes of 15

1 By “major and damaging” we simply mean that the damage was large enough to require intervention by City government and cause City government a significant cost.

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percent or less if the conditions are right. Slope steepness and underlying soils are the most important factors affecting the landslide hazard. However, surface and subsurface drainage patterns also affect the landslide hazard, and vegetation removal can increase the likelihood of a landslide.

The hazard can be reduced through grading, strengthening, geotechnical engineering, drainage, and other landscape methods. The City does regulate and inspect new development activities, but most of the Berkeley hillside development predates current best practices and codes. Further, mitigation efforts can be costly and out of reach for many residents on a fixed budget.

Systems
Roads and sidewalks may be damaged as a result of a landslide.

Underground utilities (water, sewer lines, storm drains, natural gas lines, and conduits) and aboveground utilities (electricity, telecommunications, cable) may be damaged in a landslide. Damage to underground utilities may pose serious health and environmental risks. Interruptions in electrical power may require with disabilities and people who depend on electrical equipment for medical needs to evacuate or to have emergency power supplies, even if they are not directly impacted by a landslide.

In Berkeley, several collector streets that are critical for emergency access and evacuation are located in areas susceptible to landslides.

Natural, historic, and cultural resources
The Berkeley hills , where landslide risk is most present, include homes of architectural

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significance. There are also several parks, recreational areas, as well as institutions that may be impacted by a landslide.

According to Map 24 , significant portions of the University of California - Berkeley campus, as well as the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, are susceptible to landslide.

B.7.g Potential Impacts and Losses
Landslides can cause serious injury or death. Fortunately, recent landslides have not caused any deaths or injuries. There is currently no data on how many deaths or injuries to expect with a given landslide, but Berkeley’s landslide- exposed areas are densely populated, meaning that there is significant risk to people.

Climate change is expected to increase the potential impacts and losses associated with rainfall-triggered landslides. Expected changes in population patterns potentially increase impacts and losses associated with rainfall -triggered landslides. As the population steadily increases, if there is additional development in the eastern hills, more people could be exposed to landslide risk. Changes in land use and development may potentially increase impacts and losses. New state laws are mandating increased density throughout the city, including in the eastern hills, which are more exposed to wildland-urban interface fire and landslides.

GFOA’s Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Analysis
A search of historical records indicates that there have been 4 damaging landslides, triggered by rain, in Berkeley since 1982. We used this as the basis for the potential frequency of landslides in the future: 3 landslides in 41 years implies a 7% annual chance

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of a landslide.

For potential damages landslides might cause we looked at two sources:

1. FEMA estimates of total exposure to landslides in each census tract in Berkeley and estimated loss ratios. This provided a starting point for what losses might be from a landslide.

2. Historical records of losses from landslides in the region. This provided a sense of the variation that can take place.

We put all these pieces of data together to develop a range of possible landslide outcomes. This resulted in the potential community economic losses shown in Exhibit 10.

Exhibit 16. Loss Exceedance Curve for Landslides, 10 Year and 1 Year Risks (thousands of dollars)

Table 10 pinpoints key ideas from Exhibit 10 above. For example, over a one-year period,

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there is a 5 percent chance that there will be a landslide causing $55,000 of damage.

Over a ten-year period, the risk increases, and there is a 5 percent chance that there will be a landslide causing $600,000 in damage.

Time Horizon 5% 10% 50% 90%
1-Year $55K NA* NA* NA*
10-Year $600K $330K $35K NA*
*Not Applicable (NA) means that the loss exceedance curve intersects zero before this point.

See the graph to see where the curve meets the vertical axis for the chance of losses exceeding zero.

B.8 Tsunami
B.8.a Description of Tsunami
A tsunami occurs in a body of water when a rapid disturbance vertically displaces the water, causing a series of surges. These changes can be caused by an underwater fault rupture (that generates an earthquake) or underwater landslides (typically triggered by earthquakes).

Tsunamis affecting the Bay Area can result from offshore earthquakes within the Bay Area, or from very distant events. While it is most common for tsunamis impacting the Bay Area to be generated by faults in Washington and Alaska, local tsunamis can be generated from local faults running underwater (such as the small tsunami that was triggered by the 1906 earthquake). The San Andreas Fault runs along the coast off the Peninsula and the Hayward fault runs partially through San Pablo Bay.

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Connection to climate change
As sea levels and temperatures rise, so does the potential impacts of tsunami. Increases in sea levels and higher tides may be contributing factors to more frequent and intense coastal flooding.

B.8.b
Locations of Tsunami
In 2021, the California Geological Survey (CGS) and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) updated the existing tsunami inundation maps for Alameda County, shown in Map 25. In this update, the tsunami boundaries have changed to reflect the best available science as well as local geographic features that impact evacuation safety.

Map 25 shows in blue shading the area of potential tsunami inundation in Berkeley. It does not reflect the inundation area from any singular tsunami, but represents what is possible from large, realistic scenarios primarily from the Alaska and Cascadia subduction zones. This map is intended to be used to evacuation planning purposes only.

Given Berkeley’s sloping terrain and the Bay’s waters at their current levels, tsunami inundation will not extend far inland from the shoreline, but the zone has increased slightly since the last update to reflect new science and local features. According to Map 25 and shaded in blue, the tsunami inundation zone extends along the entire shoreline of the Bay. Starting at the city’s northern border, the zone stretches east from the Bay until it meets Fifth Street. At Page Street, the edge of the zone stretches as far east as Sixth Street until Delaware Street . At Hearst Street, the edge of the zone runs east to Fifth Street. At University Avenue, the edge of the zone runs east to Fourth Street. From

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Addison to Heinz Avenue the eastern edge runs to Third Street or to where Union Pacific Railroad is located. At the far south end of the city after Heinz Avenue, the eastern edge of the zone runs to Fifth Street for one block and to Seventh Street at Potter and Folger Avenue.

According to Map 25 , the zone captures Golden Gate Fields, the Tom Bates Regional Sports Complex, Eastshore State Park, the Berkeley Marina, the Dona Spring Animal Shelter, portions of Interstate 80 and the frontage roads beside it, the San Francisco Bay Trail, the Amtrak Station, and Aquatic Park. It also captures the Fourth Street Business District.

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B.8.c Extent of Tsunamis and Anticipated Intensities
In 2023, the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, and the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an updated California Tsunami Evacuation Playbook for Alameda County.

Tsunami Evacuation Playbooks reflect more refined and detailed planning, in which forecasted tsunami amplitudes, storm surge, and tidal information can help guide which areas might be inundated in different scenarios, depending on the extent of the event.

This analysis uses helps NOAA to better predict inundation areas during actual ts unami events. Local emergency managers can use this information to better target evacuation areas during actual tsunami events.

Map 26 below present these Playbook zones for evacuation as “Evacuation Phases.” The areas covered under each phase expand as follows:
• Phase 1 includes beaches, harbor docks and boats, and piers. • Phase 2 adds small areas of land south of University Avenue and west of the West Frontage Road.
• Phase 3 adds Golden Gate Fields, the Tom Bates Regional Sports Complex, Eastshore State Park, the Berkeley Marina, and portions of the San Francisco Bay Trail.
• The Maximum Phase is presented blue and reflects the full tsunami inundation zone presented on Map 25 . The Maximum Phase includes Golden Gate Fields, the Tom Bates Regional Sports Complex, Eastshore State Park, the Berkeley Marina, the Dona Spring Animal Shelter, portions of Interstate 80 and the frontage roads beside it, the San Francisco Bay Trail, the Amtrak Station, and Aquatic Park.

It also captures the Fourth Street Business District.

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B.8.d Previous Tsunami Events
There have been no federally -declared tsunami disasters in Berkeley since the last update. But in January 2023, an underwater volcano erupted near Tonga, resulting in a tsunami advisory for Berkeley. Residents evacuated from boats, docks, and near the shoreline. While there were some noticeable swells and strong current leading to entrance of the Berkeley Marina, there wasn’t any reported damage.73 The most recent tsunami to cause damage in Berkeley was associated with the March 2011 earthquake off the coast of Japan. As a result of the tsunami, a half-meter-tall surge was observed nearby in Oakland with 4- 6 knot current . The tsunami surge entered the Berkeley Marina, causing $158,000 of damage to docks and boats.74 Tsunamis generally impact the Pacific Coast of California, and reports of tsunamis entering the San Francisco Bay are rare. Tsunamis, or seiches as they are called when they occur within an enclosed body of water, can also be generated within the Bay by the Hayward fault, which passes under San Pablo Bay. The 1868 Earthquake on the Hayward fault is reported to have created a seiche within the Bay. It is unknown whether the seiche impacted the City of Berkeley. The 1964 Alaska earthquake caused extensive tsunami damage that flooded and heavily damaged coastal northern California near Crescent City; data is not available regarding impacts to Berkeley.

B.8.e
Probability of Future Events
The probability of a tsunami occurring is typically described in return periods, or the estimated average amount of time between events. Map 27 shows the extent of inundation in Berkeley associated with a 100- year, 200- year, 475- year, and 975- year

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events.
• A 100-year event has a 1% chance of occurring in a given year. • A 200-year event has a .5% chance of occurring in a given year. • A 475-year event has a .2% chance of occurring in a given year. • A 975-year event has a .1% chance of occurring in a given year. In other words, a 975-year event has a 5% chance of occurring once in the next 50 years.

The areas of impact for these events are fairly similar to the tsunami evacuation phases presented earlier.

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B.8.f Vulnerabilities
People
The people most at risk in any kind of tsunami are those that live on boats at the Berkeley Marina. This includes 100 liveaboard households, as well as 13 houseboats, for a total of 113 households. The Berkeley Marina has 1,000 boat slips. Approximately 200 residents live onboard boats in these slips. An additional estimated 13 live onboard houseboats, and regulations permit all slip holders to spend 12 nights per month on their boats.

Everyone who lives in or visits Berkeley’s tsunami inundation area (Map 25) is exposed to tsunami. According to ESRI Demographic Data, 1,416 people in 502 households live in Berkeley’s tsunami inundation zone. Of that population, 58 households include a member with a disability, 213 include a member who is over 65 years old, and 23 households are below the poverty line. Berkeley’s tsunami inundation area has an estimated daytime population of 6,840, including employees, visitors, and people recreating. This data likely undercounts individuals who are unhoused and those that live at the Berkeley Marina as mentioned above.

According to ESRI Demographic Data, there are 448 businesses with 4,821 employees in the tsunami inundation zone. These businesses are estimated to have a high visitor potential, which may make evacuation more challenging, if customers are unfamiliar with tsunamis and or the geography of the area.

Warning systems typically allow for enough notice for at -risk individuals to evacuate. In the event of a distant-source tsunami, where the underlying earthquake does not impact Berkeley, warnings can be issued before the tsunami arrives onshore in Berkeley.

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However, the limited number of egress routes will slow evacuations. Evacuations will also be slowed by the pinch point created on the stretch of University Avenue between Marina Boulevard to the west and West Frontage Road to the east. This stretch of roadway is the only eastward driving option out of the Marina.

Evacuation
The numbers of people and assets exposed to a tsunami are relatively low as compared with other hazards presented in this Plan. However, evacuation routes for Marina residents and visitors are limited. Interstate 80 runs north- south along the eastern edge of the Marina, bisecting the area from the rest of the city. There are six access/egress routes from the Marina into Berkeley:

1. Via the University Avenue Bridge

2. Via the frontage road north to Gilman Street

3. Via the frontage road south to Ashby Avenue/CA-13

4. Via Interstate 80

5. Via the I-80 Bicycle/Pedestrian overcrossing75

An earthquake occurring in the waters close to Berkeley could cause a near -source tsunami, which would allow for little to no time to provide warning to people in the inundation area. A near-source tsunami could severely compound evacuation challenges

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for individuals in the Marina. These evacuation challenges will disproportionately impact people with disabilities and people with access and functional needs. They may not have immediate transportation options to evacuate quickly. Additionally, in the event of a tsunami, they may be separated from their caregivers and may need assistance to evacuate.

Tsunamis can cause the release of pollutants, toxic substances, and other hazardous materials, threatening public health, water, and the environment. Debris and hazardous materials may also impede evacuations and or emergency response.

Structures
Of primary concern to the City is the Berkeley waterfront, which is primarily used for recreational purposes, educational and environmental programming, industrial, non- profit, and commercial operations.

At the Berkeley Marina, existing docks are a range of ages, with an average age of around 40 years old. Many docks are in significantly deteriorated condition. Broken finger docks, utilities, and pilings pose a safety risk to Marina customers and their vessels. This deteriorating infrastructure exacerbates the area’s vulnerability to tsunami. D & E docks were damaged badly in the Tsunami of 2011 (and are scheduled to be replaced in 2024), and many finger docks and pilings are still unusable and have not been repaired or replaced. This results in lost revenue to the Marina, lost capacity, and a reduction in the recreational resources available to the public.

Recent tsunami inundation models
76 provided in the 2018 Harbor Improvement Plan from

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the California Geologic Survey have identified a moderate tsunami vulnerability in the Gas Dock, Docks B-K, and Dock O. Docks D and E are considered the area’s most vulnerable to modeled tsunami events, with a moderate level of vulnerability to all events. The next most vulnerable are Docks B and C, which have a moderate vulnerability to particular scenario events. In this study, moderate vulnerability was defined as damage to 10% - 90% of cleats and pile guides.

The most significant financial losses to the City of Berkeley in the event of a tsunami would be inundation of the following structures:
• Dona Spring Animal Shelter
77 • Marina Boat Docks
• Berkeley Yacht Club
• Shorebird Nature Center
• Marina Corporation Yard
• Marina Administration Building
• Skates on the Bay restaurant
• 199 Seawall Drive
• 125-127 University Avenue (office buildings, Berkeley Police Department’s Traffic Division are based there)
• Hana Japan Restaurant
• Cal Sailing and Cal Adventures
• Berkeley Marine Center

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Other City - and privately -owned facilities of significant value also sit in the tsunami inundation zone. These facilities host a number of businesses and community recreation assets. Tsunami damage could also lead to a drop in revenue to the City from the buildings it leases to others, as well as a drop in tax revenue from businesses operating in the area.

The Tsunami Inundation area includes the DoubleTree Hotel with 378- rooms, many of which are on the ground floor. The DoubleTree regularly hosts events with 500- 600 attendees, potentially making it the City’s most densely-populated location with tsunami exposure.

The waterfront also includes three restaurants, several offices, commercial boating operations, sailing clubs and businesses, nonprofit offices, two small -scale commuter ferry operations, the Adventure Playground, Shorebird Park Nature Center, Shorebird Park, and an industrial boat yard. A number of waterfront restaurants, such as Skates on the Bay, often have large numbers of customers.

Systems
Tsunamis can damage critical utility infrastructure. This may cause a loss to basis services such as power, sewer, and water. The DoubleTree Hotel is the only business in the ar ea with a generator. See the Utility Disruption Section for details on potential impacts from utility disruption.

Inundation maps show tsunami inundation affecting parking areas and buildings in the Marina. The University Avenue access road is also within the inundation zone. The

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University Avenue overpass over Interstate 80 is also shown to be within the inundation zone. While the overpass itself is unlikely to be inundated due to its height, if inundation extends to Second Street, the access ramps on eith er end of the overpass would be covered, making the overpass impassable.

Natural, historical, and cultural Resources
The Berkeley Waterfront is a public asset and community resource within the City of Berkeley and San Francisco Bay area. The Waterfront is well-loved by the local community, who enjoy the diverse recreational opportunities and the exceptional coastal landscape and biodiversity.

B.8.g Potential Impacts and Losses
Climate change is anticipated to increase the potential impacts and losses associated with tsunamis. With a steadily increasing population, more people will be exposed in the tsunami inundation area. New state laws are mandating increased density throughout the city, which may increase development in the tsunami inundation zone. However, any new development would be required to comply with the applicable regulations to ensure avoidance of and/or adequate mitigation of hazard-induced risk.

Estimating losses from tsunami inundation is difficult given that the inundation maps do not represent inundation from a single scenario event. Inundation from any single event will almost certainly be less severe than depicted in Map 25, which is intended to display worst-case scenario run-up heights from all potential tsunami sources across the Pacific Rim.

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SAFRR Analysis
The 2013 SAFRR ts unami scenario 78 depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula. The study projected impacts on the California coast, which included:
• Pilings in the Berkeley Marina will not be overtopped by tsunami waters, but over half of the docks in California coastal marinas will be damaged or destroyed • One-third of boats in California coastal marinas will be damaged or sunk • In Alameda County, tsunami inundation will create $20 million in building damage and $164.4 million in damage to building contents
• Wastewater treatment plants in Alameda County will be inundated and could release raw or partially-treated sewage and wastewater-treatment chemicals.

GFOA Analysis
Berkeley is at some risk from tsunami. The worst tsunami that researchers have commonly contemplated is the 1-in-900-year tsunami. This represents a tsunami so large that we would expect to see one that large only once in 900 years. Map 25 shows the area of the City we could expect to be impacted by such a tsunami. A tsunami of this size is expected to impact about 1,400 residents, a daytime population of 6,800, and 448 buildings.

The damage of less intensive tsunamis is substantially less. A tsunami of sufficient intensity to occur only once every 475 years is only estimated to impact 125 residents, 1,100 daytime population, and 14 businesses.

Unfortunately, researchers have not produced usable estimates of projected economic losses from a major tsunami. Further research is needed to fully assess Berkeley’s

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tsunami hazard, including structural assessment of buildings and infrastructure in the inundation zone, to determine if they are designed and constructed with the strength and resilience needed to resist the effects of tsunami surges.

The City will leverage ongoing research and coordinate with regional, State and federal partners to help answer these questions.

B.9 Sea Level Rise and Shallow
Groundwater Rise
B.9.a Description of Sea Level Rise and Shallow Groundwater Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise is an increase in the level of the world’s oceans. Warmer temperatures associated with climate change are causing global sea levels to rise through two processes:
• Warmer temperatures are increasing the amount of ice melt from the world’s glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. This melted ice increases the volume of water in the ocean.
• In a process termed “thermal expansion,” warmer temperatures cause ocean water to expand, further increasing the ocean’s volume.

Shallow Groundwater Rise
Recent scientific studies have begun to evaluate the impact of the shallow groundwater rising in low-lying coastal areas (like Berkeley) combined with sea level rise. According to the San Francisco Estuary Institute and the Pathways Climate Institute 79, as sea levels

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rise in San Francisco Bay, shallow groundwater underneath low -lying coastal communities will also rise. For this reason, low-lying inland areas could flood from below by emergent groundwater long before coastal floodwaters overtop the shoreline. As groundwater rises, it will increas ingly infiltrate sewer systems, flood basements, and damage underground infrastructure. Rising groundwater will also interact with contaminated lands around the Bay, creating a potential exposure pathway that could impact the environment and public health. And rising groundwater will increase liquefaction hazards in response to earthquakes, particularly in former open water, mudflat, marsh, and floodplain areas that have been filled for development. Liquefaction occurs when loosely-packed, water-logged sediments at or near the ground surface lose their strength in response to strong ground shaking.

Connection to climate change
Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide and other heat -trapping gases into the atmosphere; oceans then absorb the majority of this heat. As water becomes warmer, it expands. This results in ocean levels rising worldwide.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified four potential scenarios that reflect different future scenarios for greenhouse gas concentrations of the atmosphere. The scenarios are known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They range from:
• RCP 2.6: Represents stopping all current greenhouse gas emissions, as well as significant carbon sequestration (a negative carbon output), to • RCP 8.5: Represents continuing and increasing carbon emissions.

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Each scenario presents estimates for expected increase in sea level rise as the planet warms and melting rates increase. Table 1 1 provides analyses of sea level rise projections for the State and the Bay Area under these different climate scenarios in the year 2100.80

Source Carbon
Sequestration &
Eliminate Carbon
Emissions
(RCP 2.6)
Significant Carbon
Emissions
Reductions
(RCP 4 .5)
Carbon Emissions
Increase
(RCP 8.5)
State Projections
(Fourth CA Climate
Assessment)81
N/A 2.4 ft 4.5 ft
Bay Area
Projections (Ocean
Protection
Council)82

1.6 ft N/A 2.5 ft
Connection to flooding
Sea level rise increases flooding frequency in the following ways:
• Groundwater table and stream water levels rise, increasing areas subject to flooding.
• Storm surges rise, exposing new areas previously not at risk of flooding. • Coastal erosion increases, expanding areas exposed to flooding and inundation83. • Levees and storm walls have to endure increasing loads and may be susceptible to overtopping, making these traditional measures to address sea level rise no longer adequate or financially feasible.

Connection to hazardous materials release
Rising groundwater could push toxic materials stored underground upward, which could

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create major impacts on public health and the environment. The City is planning to expand on the new science around groundwater rise combining with sea level rise to better understand specific impacts on hazardous materials in Berkeley.

B.9.b Location of Sea Level Rise and Shallow Groundwater Sea level rise and shallow groundwater are most prevalent in the western edge of Berkeley along the shoreline. For further details, read the Extent and Anticipated Intensities analysis below.

B.9.c
Extent of and Anticipated Intensities of Sea Level Rise and Shallow Groundwater
Sea Level Rise Analysis
An interactive, Bay Area- specific map called the Bay Shoreline Flood Explorer 84 was produced by the Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) program of the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), a State agency working to increase the resilience of San Francisco Bay Area communities to sea level rise and storms.

Three maps below depict the permanent inundation that may occur based on sea level rise of 2 feet, 4 feet, and 5.5 feet. These maps indicate that sea level rise is expected to mainly affect the shoreline areas of Berkeley. The Berkeley Waterfront is the most vulnerable.

These maps were purely based on topography and do not account for riverline flooding, wave hazards, groundwater, erosion and subsidence, marsh vegetation, and salt ponds and wetlands.

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Map 28 shows that with two feet of sea level rise, which is considered very likely by 2100, the Berkeley shoreline will experience shallow inundation, with small sections of the northern and southern edges of McLaughlin Eastshore State Shoreline experiencing inundation further in.

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Map 29 shows that with four feet of sea level rise, which is considered likely by 2100, all of Berkeley’s coastline will experience at least some inundation. Areas along the northeastern corner of the Marina, where the Doubletree hotel is situated, are expected to receive some inundation. Further inundation is expected along the edges of the McLaughlin Eastshore State Shoreline. Additionally, shallow inundation is expected in the northwestern corner and western edge of the Tom Bates Regional Sports Complex.

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Map 30 shows inundation from 5.5 feet of sea level rise, which is not as likely by 2100 but still possible. In addition to inundated areas in the other scenarios, 5.5 feet of sea level rise will inundate the majority of the McLaughlin Eastshore State Seashore with varying depths of water. Areas along the northeastern corner of the Marina, where the Doubletree hotel is situated, will be further inundated. Inundation also increases along the western side of the Tom Bates Regional Sports Complex.

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Map 31 below layers another hazard – a 25-year design storm – atop the 5.5 -foot sea level rise scenario presented in Map 3. With these combined haz ards, water could inundate Interstate 80 and potentially as far east as Fifth Street in Berkeley.

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Groundwater Rise Analysis
New data and maps from the Pathways Climate Institute LLC and the San Francisco Estuary Institute provide insight into how rising groundwater can impact coastal communities and interact with sea level rise.

Map 32 shows that Berkeley already faces high groundwater (within six feet of the ground surface) in multiple areas, posing risks to underground infrastructure that is mostly built within 6 feet of the surface. However, emergent groundwater is limited to a small area in the northeast corner of McLaughlin Eastshore State Seashore.

Map 33 presents future groundwater level projections associated with the sea level rise scenarios presented in Maps 28-31, as well as another worse sea level rise scenario.

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Combined Effects of Sea Level Rise and Groundwater Rise Sea level rise analysis shown in Maps 28-31 is purely based on topography and does not account for groundwater rise. Groundwater levels presented in Map 32 reflect current conditions but do not consider future sea level rise scenarios.

In these scenarios, emergent groundwater begins to appear in dark blue. Emergent groundwater is when the groundwater surfaces, making the depth of the groundwater zero. Emergent groundwater can damage surface infrastructure like roadways and add to surface fl ooding, especially during rain events. As sea level rises, more emergent groundwater is projected.
• At 24” sea level rise (very likely by 2100), we begin to see “emergent” groundwater. • At 48” sea level rise (likely by 2100), emergent groundwater increases, particularly in West Berkeley north of University Avenue.
• At 66” sea level rise (not as likely by 2100), emergent groundwater is apparent in about half of the Berkeley area north of University Avenue. • At 96” sea- level rise (probability currently unknown) a large portion of West Berkeley north of University Avenue is covered by emergent groundwater.

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B.9.d Previous Sea Level Rise Events
It is estimated that the San Francisco Bay has already risen approximately eight inches since 1900.85
There have been no federally-declared sea level rise disasters in Berkeley since the last update.

B.9.e Probability of Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise in the Bay Area will continuously rise in the next few decades, but most considerably in the latter half of the 21
st century. The probability of sea level rise relates
to future greenhouse gas emissions, as is described in Table 12.

Recent studies have suggested that the Antarctic ice sheets are melting at rates much faster than previously reported.
86 B.9.f Vulnerabilities
People
Sea level rise will have disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged communities in Berkeley. For example, the areas most likely to experience flooding with increased sea level rise are in West Berkeley, which has a higher percentage of communities of color and low-income communities. These are the same neighborhoods that were historically redlined, have poorer air quality, and experience higher incidents of hospitalization due to asthma. West Berkeley also has a history of industrial buildings and usage, resulting in more hazardous materials stored underground. As the groundwater table rises along with the sea level, these materials can also rise and move, causing environmental and

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public health hazards.

Structures
Consideration of storm surge and other compounding flooding risks on structures is increasingly important, particularly when designing infrastructure with finite effectiveness, such as sea walls or barriers. Both permanent inundation from sea level rise as well as more frequent and more extensive flooding events will need to be considered in long-term planning along Berkeley’s coast.

The 2019 Draft Berkeley Marina Area Sea Level Ris e Assessment is a site-specific analysis for compliance with State requirements in AB 691. The document identifies three locations in the Berkeley Waterfront that are most susceptible to intermittent inundation in the future due to sea level rise:

1. Virginia Street Extension (north shore of McLaughlin Eastshore State Seashore) intersection with Marina Boulevard

2. South Shore of University Avenue

3. North-East side of the Berkeley Inner Harbor.

The 2019 Draft Berkeley Marina Area Sea Level Rise Assessment is a living document and will be used to inform future City of Berkeley projects and development at the Marina.

Systems
As sea levels rise, storms could cause key underpasses and roads accessing Highway 80, including Ashby Avenue (State Highway 13) , to flood more often or be permanently inundated, impacting transportation on this major regional artery.

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Berkeley’s stormwater and sanitary sewer pipes are vulnerable to inundation. In addition, flooding resulting from sea level rise in combination with severe storms may threaten natural gas pipelines regionally. Prolonged and more frequent inundation from sea level rise can accelerate structural failures and threaten the functionality of California’s natural gas distribution system.
87 This infrastructure vulnerability can lead to disrupted service and the leakage of methane gas from the system. Methane is both a health and safety hazard as well as a highly potent greenhouse gas, further contributing to climate change.

Cultural and Natural Resources
According to the 2019 Draft Berkeley Marina Area Sea Level Rise Assessment, in Berkeley the major risk of sea level rise to the shoreline is the loss and/or degradation of the revetment, which is a structure intended protect the bank from erosion. This could jeopardize the landfill of César E. Chávez Park, causing erosion and loss of landmass.

There is a potential of erosion and loss of the integrity of both the San Francisco Bay Trail Spur and University Avenue.

Several trails and access to the Marina viewing points and coastal access will be impacted by projected sea level rise. Degradation of the trails will make walking and running less accessible and will also cut off potential for small boat recreation.

Damage to natural resources includes potential damage to the protected natural area within César E. Chávez Park and the Western Burrowing Owl habitat, both located in the northeast corner of the park. Because there is significant inundation within the McLaughlin Eastshore State Seashore, any habitat within the grassland will be significantly impacted starting in 2030.

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Sea level rise will inundate beaches and shoreline habitats. These changes are expected to substantially alter the Bay ecosystem, reducing wetlands, and adversely affecting water quality and wildlife.
88 Landfilled areas and areas experiencing drought —both common in the Bay Area—are particularly susceptible to land subsidence, which is the gradual settling or sudden sinking of land.
89 In the Bay Area, this includes developed areas that sit on top soft compressible bay mud. 90 Land subsidence can expand areas susceptible to sea level rise as these areas sink while sea levels are rising to meet them.91
Scientists predict that climate change will have many effects on freshwater and marine environments. These effects, along with nutrient pollution, could increase the frequency, intensity, and exposure to harmful algal blooms. Algal blooms endanger human health, the environment, and the economy. Sea level rise would create more shallow and stable coastal water, conditions that are perfect for algae growth. 92 Activities that have value
The Berkeley Waterfront is a critical community asset for recreation, education, and local businesses. Recreation activities occur both on land and surrounding waters. Nonprofit sailing clubs operate out of the Berkeley Waterfront and many boaters and fishers use the area. Recreation areas on land include César E. Chávez Park, Shorebird Park and the Shorebird Nature Center , Horseshoe Park, and Adventure Playground. César E.

Chávez Park features a bird habitat, and an off-leash dog area.

Many businesses operate out of the area, including restaurants, the DoubleTree hotel,

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boat repair/storage facilities, and stores. In the Berkeley Marina, there are about 1,100 boat slips including about 100 liveaboard slips. A dditionally, two small-scale commuter ferries operate out of the Berkeley Marina along with fishing charter boats.

B.9.g Potential Impacts and Losses
Potential financial impacts to the Berkeley Marina caused by projected sea level rise include damage to commercial and public buildings and infrastructure, loss of public resources, loss of habitat and natural resources, and loss of berth rental revenue to the City.

All current and upcoming capital projects in the Berkeley Marina near the shoreline band will be designed to be resilient to mid- century sea-level rise and be adaptable to end of century. These projects’ sea level rise mitigation measures will be reviewed and approved by Bay Conservation Development Commission’s permit review process, ensuring the latest sea level rise requirements are being met by the design.

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Cost Type Current 2030 2050 2100
Repair,
Replacement,
Maintenance[ii]
$0 $0 $3,019,000 $17,0940,000
Losses in
nonmarket
value
[iii]
$0 $0 $0 $12,000,000
Adaptation
costs[iv]
$0 $1,050,000 $11,050,000 $15,592,600

According to BayAdapt, a regional Bay Area sea level rise organizing effort coordinated by the Bay Conservation Development Commission, the following are at risk of flooding in 48” of sea level rise throughout the Bay Area:
• 28,000 socially vulnerable residents
• 1,900 residents living near contaminated sites
• 13,000 existing housing units
• 70,000 new housing units
• 104,000 existing jobs
• 85,000 new jobs
• 20,000 acres of wetlands, lagoon, and tidal marsh habitat • 5 million daily highway vehicle trips
• 60,000 daily rail commuters

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B.10 Floods
B.10.a Description of Floods
Floods occur when there is an overflow of water in areas that are normally dry. In Berkeley, three types of flooding typically occur: coastal flooding, creek flooding, and storm drain overflow.

Coastal Flooding
Coastal flooding occurs w hen water inundates or covers normally dry coastal land as a result of high or rising tides or storm surges. Higher tides and sea level rise reduce creek and storm drainage flow capacity in the western portions of the City. See the Sea Level Rise section of this Plan for more information.

Creek Flooding
Like in many urban areas, creeks in Berkeley have been affected by urban development.

Str
etches of creeks in Berkeley are completely contained by culverts, and open channel segments of the creeks are often segmented by shorter culverts that enable streets and development.
93 Creeks in west Berkeley flow year -round. The upper reaches of creeks only flow for a short time after rainfall. When the level of runoff exceeds the capacity of a creek, the flood waters overtop the banks and flood into properties and streets. Creek flooding in Berkeley generally originates on private property. Blockages can happen in creeks, thus the City increases cleaning efforts on the right of way ahead of and during significant rainfall events. Residents are responsible for maintaining creeks and related infrastructure within their property.

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Storm Drain Overflow
The City’s storm drainage infrastructure collects urban runoff and carries it either directly to the Bay or to nearby watercourses that discharge to the Bay. Causes for storm drain overflow are generally rainfall events that exceed the capacity of the storm drainage facilities, blockages in the storm drainage facilities, or damage to storm drainage infrastructure that reduces its capacity.

When st orm water runoff exceeds the capacity of the storm drain infrastructure, the excess water flows into city streets. Most of Berkeley’s storm drain infrastructure is engineered to accommodate a 10- year design storm.
94 Using this 10-year design storm
standard is considered the most cost -effective design practice, and provides guidance for computing flows and for sizing storm drainage infrastructure. 95 M aintenance helps preserve the flow capacity of the infrastructure, reduc ing the frequency of flooding, however many components of Berkeley’s storm drain infrastructure are over 90 years old and are past their useful life expectancy. Concrete pipes have eroded or separated and metal pipes have corroded over the years. In some locations sink holes have formed as soil enters the storm drain through cracks and other defects.

Connection to Climate Change
Climate change increases the intensity and severity of rainfall events, which leads to more frequent flooding. Climate change also creates sea level rise, which in turn will lead to rising groundwater, increasing flood risk. For more information, review the Sea Level Rise section of this Plan.

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Connection to Infectious Diseases
According to the National Institutes of Health , the risk of viral infection increases after a flood.96 Floods can increase the transmission of viral diseases , especially waterborne infections, vector-borne diseases, and respiratory infections.

Connection to Utility Disruption
An unknown number of property owners rely on electric sump pumps to keep their homes and buildings free from water during the rainy season. A power outage that disables sump pumps during a storm can lead to flooding inside structures.

Connection to Sea Level and Shallow Groundwater Rise
New studies have linked sea level rise and groundwater rise to increased flood risk in the San Francisco Bay Area. 97 For more information, review the Sea Level Rise section of this Plan.

B.10.b Location of Floods
The City maintains approximately 93 miles of storm drain pipelines and appurtenant structures in the public right -of-way and in easements. The City is responsible for the maintenance of approximately 0.5 miles of open creeks and nearly 4 miles of creek culverts running in the right of way or in City owned properties. A majority of the City’s stormwater assets are nearing or past their expected useful life and others require an evaluation of hydraulic capacity.

Map 34: Berkeley Area Watersheds shows Berkeley’s watersheds:
• Codornices

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• Marin
• Cerrito
• Wildcat
• Strawberry
• Schoolhouse
• Aquatic Park
• Potter
• Temescal
• Gilman

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Storm Drain Overflow
In 2011 the City’s Public Works Department developed the Watershed Management Plan (WMP), which examined two of the watersheds in the City, represented in Map 34:

Berkeley Area Watersheds . The Potter and Codornices Watersheds were selected because they represent the full range of the urban drainage spectrum in Berkeley:98 • The Potter Watershed is the largest in the City. It experiences localized flooding in many areas, and contributes some runoff to the Aquatic Park Lagoons. Tidal effects from the Bay also influence flooding issues in the Potter Watershed. This is due to the water surface of the Bay effectively reducing the discharge ability of the storm drain outfall to the Bay.
• The Codornices Watershed is regionally significant as Codornices Creek is one of the least culverted creeks in the East Bay; and is one of the few with a salmonid population.

The City is working with a contractor to develop a comprehensive stormwater master plan, which is expected to be completed at the end of 2025.

Areas of Observed Storm Drain Overflow

During storms and flooding, community members call Berkel ey’s 3-1-1 service to report locations of storm drain backup or other locations where water is pooling. Map 35 presents locations of community reports of these issues from January -June, 2023. This time period included two federally-declared storm emergencies. This map does not reflect locations of proactive work performed by field crews to mitigate or respond to flooding. It also does not distinguish between locations with multiple calls for service. The map shows locations throughout Berkeley.

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Creek Flooding: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Berkeley’s creek flooding exposure is assessed through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which makes federally -backed flood insurance available to homeowners, renters, and business owners in participating communities. Participants in the NFIP must regulate development in floodplain areas in accordance with NFIP criteria.

Berkeley has participated in the NFIP since September 1, 1978 and is currently in good standing with the program. NFIP compliance is monitored by FEMA regional staff and by the California Department of Water Resources under a contract with FEMA.

Berkeley’s Areas of Predicted Flooding Map shows the locations of various flood hazards that could affect the city, including:

1. L ocations of the 100 -year and 500- year Floodplains, sourced from FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer tool in September 2023.

2. Street segments in the 100-year Floodplain and the 500-year Floodplain.

3. Anticipated street flooding due to storm drain overflow, sourced from the Watershed Management Plan.

Floodplains
The 100-year Floodplain shows the area that has a 1% chance of experiencing creek flooding in any given year. The 500-year floodplain has a 0.2% chance of experiencing creek flooding in a given year. Areas in the 100-year floodplain are assumed to also flood in a 500-year flood scenario. Because floods reaching the level of the 500-year Floodplain occur so rarely, they are not as well-researched and specific impacts are less known.

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100-year Floodplain
As shown in Map 36 : Flood Zone Map in medium blue, in Berkeley the 100- year Floodplain is located:
• Along the edge of the Bay
• Along the interior edge of the Aquatic Park lagoon
• Along Codornices Creek in northwest Berkeley
• Along Strawberry Creek in central Berkeley (on the University of California campus).

The following street segments are in the 100-year Floodplain:
• Along Codornices Creek: 580 Highway, 2 nd St, 5th St, 6th St, 8th St, 9th St, 10th St, Sacramento St, Monterey Ave
• Potter St
• Bay St
• W Frontage Rd
• On the UC Berkeley campus: Frank Schlessinger Way, W Entrance, Wickson Rd 500-year Floodplain
As shown in Map 36: Flood Zone Map in light blue, the 500-year Floodplain both expands on areas in the 100-year floodplain, and adds more area to show:
• Additional inundation along the edge of the Bay
• Significant inundation of the McLaughlin Eastshore State Park in the land north of University Avenue
• Significant inundation of the Marina in the land west of Marina Blvd and south of Spinnaker Way

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• Inundation in west Berkeley between Interstate 80 and approximately 4th Street • Inundation along Strawberry Creek in Central Berkeley, from Sacramento west to Strawberry Creek Park
• Inundation along Claremont Creek in the Temescal area, on Claremont between Hazel Road to Berkeley’s southern border.

The following street segments are in the 500-year Floodplain:
• West Berkeley:
o I- 80
o 1
st St (From Harrison St to Addison St)
o 2 nd St (From Harrison St to Addison St)
o 3 rd St (From Harrison St to Addison St)
o 4 th St (From Harrison St to Addison St)
o 5 th St (From Harrison St to Addison St)
o University Ave (Near Marina)
• North Berkeley:
o Colusa Ave (along Cerrito Creek)
• Central Berkeley:
o Allston Way (From N Valley St to Sacramento St)
o Bonar St (Between Addison St and Allston Way)
o West St (Between Addison St and Allston Way)

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o N Valley St
o Acton Crescent
o Acton Circle
o Acton St (From Addison to Acroft Ct)
• Claremont:
o Claremont Ave (Between Hazel Rd and Mystic St)
o Alcatraz Ave (From Lewiston Ave to Claremont Ave)
o Eton Ave
o Eton Ct
o Brookside Ave
o Hillcrest Rd (Only near Claremont Creek)
o Woolsey St (Between Eton Ave and Claremont Ave)
o The Uplands (Only Near Claremont Creek)
o Encina Pl
o The Plaza Dr
o Prince St (From College Ave to Claremont St)
o Oakvale Ave

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o Hazel Rd
o Webster St (Between Pine Ave and Claremont Ave)

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Stormwater Master Plan
The City is working with a contractor to develop a comprehensive stormwater master plan (SWMP), which is expected to be completed at the end of 2025. The SWMP will provide an updated inventory of system -wide deficiencies and establish a capital stormwater improvement plan to address these deficiencies based on an equity and risk -based prioritization model. The SWMP will also provide updated maintenance and inspection plans for the City’s stormwater assets and identify green infrastructure implementation opportunities. The SWMP will analyze potential funding mechanisms to supplement current funding levels for the program as needed to support enhanced operations, regulatory compliance implementation, and capital improvements identified in the master plan.

B.10.c Extent of Floods and Anticipated Intensities
Floods can last for a few minutes to a few weeks. This timing often depends on the duration of the rainfall and the land on which it occurs. In low and flat areas, slow moving water can linger for days or weeks. Excessive rainfall from winter storms is the most common cause of flooding between November and March.

The following factors contribute to the frequency and severity of flooding in a given event:
• Rainfall intensity and duration
• Existing saturation
• Features of the watershed
• Natural features
• Coastal conditions

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For example, an intense rainstorm at the end of a rainy winter when soils are already saturated is more likely to result in flooding than if the same storm occurs at the beginning of the rainy season when soils are not as wet.

Depth and velocity are common ways of measuring the severity of a flood. These provide information on how deep the water is and how fast it is moving. The depth and velocity of a flood are good predictors of how much damage it may cause.

B.10.d
Previous Flood Events
Berkeley’s most recent flooding occurred in December 2022 and January 2023 when a powerful series of storm systems brought more than 15 inches of rain. This much rain in a 20-day timeframe occurs only once every 50 years, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA). The winter months of 2023 had several severe storms that included flooding, high winds, and landslides. During January to April 2023, there were three federally declared disasters in Alameda County, including DR-4699, DR-4683, and EM-3591.

In October 2022, an atmospheric river brought heavy rains and strong winds to Berkeley, resulting in nuisance flooding as well as many downed trees and powerlines.

In 2004, widespread flooding occurred throughout Berkeley during a 25- year rainfall event. Flooding also occurred during the 1997 - 1998 El Niño season.

In the early 1960s, the Strawberry and Codornices Creeks overflowed, along with flooding of streets and intersections. The flooding was of short duration and shallow depth and occurred in small areas. A few buildings flooded, including some on the University of

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California, Berkeley campus.

B.10.e Probability of Future Events
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Events Database, there have been an estimated 45 days with flooding in Alameda County in the last 20 years. This equates to about 2 days per year, as an estimate. Climate change will likely bring stronger storms with heavy rains, increasing the number of days per year of flooding in Alameda County.

B.10.f
Vulnerabilities
People
The 100 year and 500 years floodplains are concentrated in west Berkeley along the Bay and around the Aquatic Park. West Berkeley has historically been the home to underserved communities and marginalized populations, including people experiencing homelessness. People in West Berkeley may not have the resources to take household mitigation measures and or manage the impacts of floods if they occur.

Floods pose a number of risks to people. Serious injury or death can occur when people do not evacuate areas that are flooded or enter floodwaters. Urban runoff and flooding can also result in contaminated drinking water and an increase in the transmission of infectious diseases. Mold and mildew can also grow on any damp surface within 24 to 48 hours, posing additional serious health risks to people and animals.

Structures
Flooding can cause serious damage to buildings. Floods can cause structural damage,

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such as loose floors or foundation cracks. There may also be broken electrical wires, appliance damage, damage to water and septic systems, and mold and mildew.

Heavy rains can also put stress on culverts. Berkeley is underlain by a patchwork of creek culverts, most privately constructed and over 100 years old. A culvert failure could be physically and economically catastrophic in an area such as Downtown Berkeley where buildings have deep basements, many underground utilities, and streets are congested with vehicle and pedestrian traffic. Most culverts are located on private property, with some located beneath private improvements. Failure of a private culvert may cause significant damage to private property, and require improvements to that property. The City intends to repair culvert breaks beneath public property as -needed, as it currently does if there is a break in a storm drain. However, many private property owners are unaware that improvements on their property may be situated above a culvert.

Flooding can impact utilities, including power, water, and gas. Severe storms and deep waters can damage power lines and underground infrastructure, impacting buildings and other infrastructure.

Systems
In past rainfall events, flooding along low -lying roadways has hindered traffic flow. Low - lying underpasses leading to Interstate 80, as well as highly -trafficked city streets, have flooded. This creates traffic impacts for community members and first responders.

Natural, historic, and cultural assets
Local gardens face a threat of contamination if they are exposed to urban runoff. Heavy

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storm water runoff can contaminate the ocean, lakes, and other bodies of water with other bacteria.99
B.10.g Potential Impacts and Losses
The potential impacts and losses associated with floods are expected to increase due to climate change. Berkeley’s population continues to steadily increase, adding people exposed to the area’s hazard and their cascading impacts. The 100 year and 500 years floodplains are concentrated in west Berkeley along the Bay and around the Aquatic Park.

These areas haven’t changed since the last update, and development in this area of the City is characterized by industrial and heavy commercial uses, although there is some residential development. Any new development would be required to comply with the applicable regulations to ensure avoidance of and/or adequate mitigation of hazard- induced risk.

GFOA’s Flood Analysis
In 2006, Berkeley, along with 16 other cities in Alameda and Contra Costa counties experienced a storm that was severe enough to receive assistance from FEMA. This event was used as a starting point to simulate future storms. Data from severe storms in early 2023 also inform this model.

Frequency: There have been three severe storms in Alameda and Contra Costa counties that were received FEMA support since 1998. Berkeley was impacted by two of the storms. Hence, the model simulated an 12% annual chance of storms, with a 66% chance that Berkeley would be impacted by any given storm.

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To simulate damages, per capita damage from each of the cities impacted by the 2006 storms was assessed, providing a range of potential losses. This range was then used to simulate Berkeley’s potential losses from future storms: both economic losses to the community at large and financial losses to the City government.

Exhibit 1 6 shows the loss exceedance curve for the economic losses to the entire community from severe storms. Some very large losses seem possible, even if highly unlikely.

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Exhibit 17. 5.G.1 - Loss Exceedance Curve for Tsunamis for Berkeley Community, 10 Year Risk (millions of dollars)
Chance
Losses will
Exceed Dollar
Amount on
Horizontal Axis

Time Horizon 5% 10% 50% 90%
1-Year $1.1M NA* NA* NA*
10-Year $10.5M $8M $0.4M NA*
*Not Applicable (NA) means that the loss exceedance curve intersects zero before this point. See the graph to see where the curve meets the vertical axis for the chance of losses exceeding zero.

2004 Flood Analysis
A 2004 analysis explored Berkeley’s flood exposure and vulnerabilities to a one percent annual chance flood occurring in Berkeley. This analysis predicted that:
• T he maximum flood depth would be two feet deep, mostly near creek channels. • A pproximately 675 structures would be impacted to various degrees:
o The majority would be inundated by one foot or less of water. o Approximately 200 structures could flood with up to two feet of water.

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A flood depth of one to two feet has the potential to dam age structures, first floor and basement finishes, contents and appliances in exposed buildings.

The 2004 analysis used FEMA’s standard loss curves to determine the percent of replacement value of damage caused by various heights of creek flooding. These curves are based on years of data from flood losses on insured properties around the country.

Single-story structures with one foot of floodwater are estimated to have structural damage equal to 14% of their replacement value and damage to 21% of the struct ures’ contents. Single-story structures with three feet of water on average experience 27% loss of their replacement value and 40% loss to their contents.

In the 2004 plan, flood losses were estimated using the following calculations:

Value % Damage Damage
Structures $250 mill 14% $35 mill
Contents100 $250 mill 21% $53 mill
Totals (2004) $500 mill $88 mill

Value % Damage Damage
Structures $70 mill 27% $19 mill
Contents101 $35 mill 40% $14 mill
Totals (2004) $105 mill $33 mill

2004 Totals (2023)102
Structures $54 mill $90 mill
Contents103 $67 mill $111 mill
Totals (2004) $121 mill $201 mill

The estimated losses to properties in Berkeley from a one percent annual chance flood

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total $201 million in 2023 dollars. Approximately $90 million is damage to the building structures, including walls, finishes, etc. $111 million is losses to contents, including damage to furniture in homes and equipment and inventory in commercial and industrial properties.

These numbers are likely significant underestimates, because they do not account for the flooding caused by storm drain overflow, which would occur concurrently with creek flooding. Berkeley’s exposure to a one percent annual chance flood has likely increased since 2004 but resources are not available at this time to perform a new analysis.

Few Berkeley property owners are known to carry flood insurance, presumably because of negligible flood damage in recent decades, so those losses would be borne almost entirely by building owners.

Some of these losses could be avoided if property owners protected properties through sandbagging or other activities, particularly in areas expected to receive one foot or less of flood water. The City offers free sandbags to city occupants, but remediation activities like sandbagging require property owners to have adequate warning time and manpower.

Due to Berkeley’s small watersheds and paved, urban environment, floodwaters are likely to both rise and recede quickly. This means residents and business owners may have only a short warning period for impending floodwaters, but they should be able to begin the cleanup and repair process quickly. Building cleanup will occur within a handful of days; repairing and replacing furniture and equipment will take weeks to months.

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Repetitive Loss Properties
Berkeley does not have any Repetitive Loss Properties as defined by the National Flood Insurance Program.104
B.11 Utility Interruption
B.11.a Description of Utility Interruption
Utility interruption is any loss of a public service which includes but is not limited to electrical service, telecommunications, wastewater and potable water, and natural gas.

Interruption can be planned and include a warning, such as with Power Safety Power Shutoffs that proactively turn off electricity to mitigate wildfire risk, or interruption can come as a secondary impact of a natural hazard described in this plan. Interruption can also occur without a preceding natural hazard, with a variety of causes, for example maintenance and repair or accidental damage.

In Berkeley, electrical service, telecommunications, potable water, and natural gas infrastructures are not under the City’s control, but rather are owned and managed by other quasi-governmental, private, or special district entities. • Most electricity (generation) is provided by Ava Community Energy. Pacific Gas and Electric or P G&E provides a small portion of electricity, manages the transmission and distribution of electricity, responds to outages, and provides billing and customer service. Berkeley’s electricity system is almost entirely aboveground, making it vulnerable to earthquake, fire, landslide, and storm damage.
• Potable water is provided by East Bay Municipal Utility District or EBMUD. EBMUD provides drinking water to approximately 1.4 million people and sewer services to 640,000 in the East Bay. EBMUD was created in 1923, and the age and extent of its system makes it particularly vulnerable to damage.

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• Telecommunications are managed by a variety of private partners, including Verizon, AT&T, and Comcast, among others . Telecommunications infrastructure is spread throughout the city, and therefore susceptible to damage from the variety of natural hazards mentioned in this plan. Telecommunications also rely on the electricity system to function.
• Natural gas is managed by PG&E . The natural gas transmission line runs the length of Berkeley (north-south direction) under Seventh Street, which is an area susceptible to earthquake liquefaction.

The City manages some utility infrastructure, including storm drains and the sanitary sewer collection system that links to the EBMUD system. The sewer and storm drainage systems are also old and have weak components, making them vulnerable to damage.

The systems described in this section provide the foundation for day -to-day life in Berkeley. These systems are also vital to many of the City’s disaster response activities, and restoration of these systems will be critically important to Berkeley’s recovery.

Utility Poles and Wires
Aboveground utility poles and wires are both vulnerable to natural hazards and when destabilized can themselves become hazardous and create fires. Utility-caused fires have become a major contributor California’s fire hazard. Aboveground utility lines are vulnerable to strong winds, earthquake shaking and ground failure, and to object coming into contact with wires. When utility poles are destabilized or wires are damaged, the wires themselves can become hazardous as they continue to conduct electricity, putting people in harm’s way, creating sparks, and igniting fires. Live wires coming in contact with combustible fuel, as well as other disruptors like squirrels, rodents, birds, and vehicles knocking down utility poles, contribute to the fire ignition hazards.

Undergrounding is the process of placing overhead power lines, poles, cables, and other

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utility infrastructure underground. Undergrounding reduces the likelihood of a fire ignition and has been shown to stabilize power and communications reliability, beautify the urban environment, and enhance public safety by eliminating fire ignition sources and obstruction of evacuation routes.

According to the 2018 Conceptual Study to Underground Utility Wires in Berkeley presented by the Public Works, Disaster and Fire Safety, and Transportation Commissions, Berkeley is comprised of diverse neighborhoods with a mix of commercial and residential properties. Undergrounding could be a beneficial adjustment in the city, improving safety, quality of life, and reliability from natural and human-induced disasters.

Currently, approximately 16% (34.6 miles) of utility wires are undergrounded on all streets in Berkeley.

To reduce risks associated with overhead wires and other utilities, in 2023 the State adopted SB 884 (McGuire), allowing the use of federal infrastructure funds for undergrounding utility lines. Following this, PG&E committed to protecting communities from wildfire threats by undergrounding 10,000 miles of power lines in the Highest Fire Threat Districts. On January 30, 2024, the Berkeley City Council adopted a resolution to urge PG&E to underground utility wires in Berkeley’s Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone (VHFHSZ) in order to mitigate wildfire risk and limit obstruction of evacuation and ingress.

See the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire section for more details on the WUI fire hazard. 105
Connection to climate change
Climate change is increasing the severity and variability of storms and other natural hazards. These events pose serious risks to our utilities.

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Connection to hazards of concern
Most of the hazards included in this plan can impact utilities. In the Vulnerabilities Section of each hazard, there is information about how the hazard can impact Systems, including utilities.

B.11.b
Location of Utility Interruption
Utility interruption is usually localized, as in the event of a damaged power line, water main, or some other relevant infrastructure. However, the natural hazards covered in this plan can create more widespread outages that can impact larger portions of the city. All locations in Berkeley may experience utility interruption. Locations with greater hazard exposure are more likely to experience utility interruption resulting from the natural hazard.

Public Safety Power Shutoff
Power Safety Power Shutoffs are planned power outages when there is high risk of wildfires. When originally begun, PG&E’s Public Safety Power Shutoffs affected large portions of the Berkeley hills. Since then, PG&E has narrowed the areas affected by PSPS, but some parts of Berkeley may still experience a Public Safety Power Shutoff, including:
• Along Summit Road at Ajax Place to where it meets Grizzly Peak and Senior Avenue.
• Around the top of Marin Avenue.
• East of Vistamont Avenue to Wildcat Canyon Road.
• A portion of the Northeast Berkeley hills that includes roughly around the following streets: Santa Barbara Road, Vermont Avenue, Michigan Avenue, Cragmont

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Boulevard, Spruce Street, Northampton Avenue, Acacia Avenue, Montrose Road, Euclid Avenue.

B.11.c Extent of Utility Interruption and Anticipated Intensities The extent and severity of utility interruption depends on many factors, including cause, location, duration, and time of year. For example, the cause of the interruption directly impacts how widespread the outage will be. One broken water main will likely on impact a small geographic area, but a storm with high winds might impact power lines all across the city. Utility interruption can also range from a small localized event to a larger, regional outage. The severity of the interruption is much higher if it impacts a large geographic area, affecting more people and critical infrastructure. Longer interruptions are also more intense than shorter ones, as people rely on utilities for a variety of basic needs. Time of year also relates to severity, as losing power on a hot or cold day is more intense, especially if people need cooling or heating infrastructure.

B.11.d
Previous Utility Interruption Events
There have been no federally-declared utility interruption disasters in Berkeley since the last update. There is not a comprehensive list of all the utility interruption events in the last five years in Berkeley. However, a few notable events had widespread impacts:
• Winter storms in 2023 toppled trees and power lines, resulting in over 10,000 customers losing power.
• A water main broke in 2020 cutting off running water supply to the entire Berkeley Marina.
• A pole fire in 2020 cut internet service for 5,000 customers in and around Berkeley. • PG&E Public Safety Power Shutoffs in 2019 left thousands without power for multiple days.

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B.11.e Probability of Future Events
The probability of utility interruption is high, given the number of systems involved, aging infrastructure, and significant exposure of each system to the many hazards presented in this plan.

B.11.f
Vulnerabilities
People
Berkeley residents, visitors, businesses, institutions, and other partner s rely on utilities for day-to-day life.

Electricity
Electricity powers everything in our daily lives, from essential domestic functions such as heating, cooling, and lighting, to a wide range of household appliances and technologies, as well as transportation, including electric cars, scooters, and public transportation.

Electricity is also often used to manage industrial and hazardous materials, which can be released and cause serious damage if there is a power failure.

Loss of electricity for prolonged periods pose a significant threat to individuals who depend on specific medical equipment or medications. According to data from the U.S.

Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) emPOWER program, some Berkeley residents rely on electricity- or power-dependent devices and durable medical equipment (DME), including 287 electric beds, 111 motorized wheelchairs or scooters, and 340 oxygen concentrators. Prolonged power outages increase the risks for those dependen t on these devices, potentially leading to a surge in vulnerable community members requiring emergency services and hospital care.

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If the electricity is out during an extreme temperature event, people who are sensitive to high or low temperatures, including the elderly, children, and people with certain medical conditions will be even more at risk. Without electricity, people may lose food supplies, especially impacting people with low incomes and people with various health needs.

Businesses, grocery stores, gas stations, and other services might also have to close, impacting the local economy and people’s ability to get basic necessities.

Water
The water supply is critical to human safety and survival. People rely on safe running water for daily activities, including, eating, drinking, bathing, and going to the bathroom.

Consumption of contaminated water can lead to the transmission of diseases and serious illnesses and even death. While some people have emergency water supplies, many do not. People would either have leave their home and or purchase water from nearby suppliers.

The water supply is also crucial to firefighting and emergency response activities. If there is a w
idespread water supply interruption, it could negatively impact firefighting capabilities.

Telecommunications
Telecommunications is a key aspect of daily life. The City government, including our first responders, use telecommunications for daily operations. Back up options are available, but may hamper services to the public.

People rely on telecommunications for personal use, work, and to report emergencies.

People r
ely on their phones to gather information, have entertainment, and to

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communicate with their families. Without this as an option, people may struggle to do these things, impacting their mental, physical, and emotional health.

Structures
In most cases utility outages do not lead directly to structural damage. However, water damage is serious, costly, and can occur in association with damage to sewer, drainage, or wastewater systems. Water damage, if not quickly addressed, can lead to mold, which is detrimental to public health and makes buildings unsafe for human use.

Systems
The utility systems in Berkeley, including electricity, water, telecommunications, and natural gas are susceptible to outages, either from day -to-day conditions or natural hazards mentioned in this plan. Further details about the utility vulnerabilities associated with the natural hazards in this plan are included in their respective sections.

Natural, historic, and cultural resources
Berkeley is home to a number of natural, historic, and cultural resources that could be negatively impacted by utility disruption. If there is damage to water systems, contaminated water could spill into the Bay or into other natural ecosystems, such as creeks and parks, around Berkeley.

Berkeley is home to many businesses that rely on water, natural gas, and electricity to operate. Not having these utilities for a long period of time could put them out of business with lost goods and profit. There are other cultural institutions in Berkeley, such as arts organizations, theatres, and businesses that cannot operate without utilities and a

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prolonged outage could threaten their existence.

Activities that have meaning
Utilities are a key part of day-to-day life for Berkeley government, residents, businesses, and visitors. Electricity and internet are crucial to City operations and its ability to serve the public. Private businesses, employers, UC Berkeley, and schools also rely on utilities to operate every day and welcome their students, employers, and customers.

Transportation systems rely on electricity too, which would make it difficult for people who rely on it to reach destinations and activities around the Bay Area.

B.11.g
Potential Impacts and Loss Estimates
There is currently no data on the economic impacts from utility disruption for Berkeley.

However, utility disruptions do cause notable economic impacts, including lost income and food for example if the power is out. There are also added costs to City operations as well as to businesses, employers, schools, and other local groups.

There may be replacement and content costs for any structures that have water damage.

B.12 Hazardous Materials Release
B.12.a Description of Hazardous Materials Release
Hazardous materials release could harm community members by exposing people to vapors that are toxic, suffocating, cause burns or are irritating. Hazardous materials release can threaten not only life and property, but also the environment, in areas such as creeks, the Aquatic Park lagoons and the San Francisco Bay.

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The impacts of a release depend on its chemical characteristics, the amount and rate of substance spilled, the location, and its dispersion. Flammable and combustible materials can cause fires in areas that are largely constructed of wood; they may also cause explosions. Wind speed and direction, as well as topography, can greatly impact the dispersion plume of a release.

The City’s Toxics Management Division (TMD), within the Department of Planning and Development, maintains the Hazardous Materials Area Plan, which identifies facilities that, in the event of a regional disaster, may pose the greatest risk to human health or the environment.

The Fire Department is the first responder for hazardous materials incidents within the City, and has access to chemical inventories, locations and emergency planning for all these facilities. The chemical inventories and facility maps are available electronically to the Fire Department.

The Department of Public Works manages the City’s hazardous materials emergency response to spills on the right -of-way and also manages the hazardous materials emergency response contractor.

Connection to climate change
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, climate change may increase our exposure to chemicals. Climate change is causing more frequent and intense storms and varied weather, which can result in more release of hazardous materials.

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Connection to hazards of concern
Most of the hazards of concerns in this plan can result hazardous materials release, including earthquake, flooding, wind, and wildland-urban interface fire.

B.12.b Locations of Hazardous Materials Release
A hazardous materials release can occur throughout the city near where hazar dous materials are manufactured, stored, used, or transported. Hazardous materials release can occur as a result of a natural hazard, such as earthquake shaking, or can happen accidentally. In Berkeley, a hazardous material event is more likely to occur in the City’s industrial area in West Berkeley where there is a concentration of industrial sites and transportation routes.

Map 37 identifies the locations of Hazard Level 1 Industrial Sites. Level 1 industrial sites are identified as square red icons on the map.

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Airborne toxic plumes, including smoke, can travel into Berkeley from surrounding cities.

Petrochemical refineries and other large chemical facilities in Contra Costa County could release hazardous materials that could impact the Berkeley community.

Hazardous materials also travel through Berkeley by truck and rail. Specific routes known to carry hazardous chemicals are:
• Interstate 80
• San Pablo Avenue and the industrial areas to the west • State Highway 13/Ashby Avenue
• Gilman Avenue
• University Avenue
• Union Pacific Railroad
• Fuel pipelines in the western edge of the City
Map 38 shows the natural gas transmission line that runs the length of Berkeley (north- south direction) under Seventh Street.
• The Seventh Street transmission line branches out to the West in four locations:

Grayson, Carleton, Parker and Virginia Streets. The Virginia street branch runs almost all the way to the Eastshore Freeway.
• The Seventh Street transmission line branches out to the east in two locations.

The first is at Heinz Avenue, continuing onto Russell Street after passing San Pablo Avenue. The transmission line ends where Russell Street crosses McGee Avenue. The second is at Allston Way. The transmission line extends the entire length of Allston Way, to the edge of UC Berkeley campus at Oxford Street, where it splits. One short transmission line continues into the campus and the other follows Oxford Street north just past Hearst Avenue, where it ends.

Map 38 also shows in a thick red line the location of pipelines carrying aviation fuel. These pipelines run along the Union Pacific railroad right-of-way in the western part of the city.

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B.12.c Extent of Hazardous Materials Release and Anticipated Intensities There are 528 facilities106 within Berkeley that are regulated by TMD.107 TMD has grouped these facilities into Hazard Levels 1, 2 and 3:
• Level 1: Facilities that have substantial quantities of hazardous materials onsite, and/or have hazardous materials that can easily disperse or explode, and are toxic or pose other special hazards to human health and the environment. • Level 2: Facilities that have medium to large quantities of hazardous materials onsite, and/or materials with known hazards.
• Level 3: Facilities for which Berkeley Fire Department engine companies can handle incidents without additional facility storage information, because the hazards are known or familiar (e.g., gas station without welding cylinders, or a facility with motor oil).

The majority of the 528 facilities in Berkeley are Level 3 automotive- or medically- related facilities with limited quantities of hazardous materials and hazardous waste.

B.12.d
Previous Hazardous Materials Release Events
There have been no federally-declared hazardous materials release disasters in Berkeley since the last update. Berkeley has not recently experienced significant hazardous materials releases secondary another natural hazard. However, the city has experienced industrial accidents from both mobile and fixed sources. Truck accidents involving potentially harmful materials have occurred in the western part of the City, on Interstate 80 and its ramps. Industrial sites have released small amounts of dangerous substances, such as anhydrous ammonia from an ice rink and a sake brewery. 108 In 2011, an
uncontrolled release of 1,600 gallons of diesel on the UC Berkeley campus resulted in diesel entering the stormwater system, and discharging into Strawberry Creek. 109 In 2017
a truck accident on Interstate 80 released approximately 200 gallons of diesel fuel on the roadway next to the estuary. The fuel was contained and the fuel did not release into the

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estuary. After the incident, the roadway barriers have been strengthened and improved.

B.12.e Probability of Future Events
Transportation accidents have occurred with trucks carrying dangerous materials. These accidents will undoubtedly occur in the future. 110 A release on the freeway or railway would most immediately impact the western industrial area of t he city. Winds typically blow from the west to the east, meaning that a gaseous release could easily spread to the City’s eastern residential areas.

The City has completed a Hazardous Materials Commodity Flow Study with a grant from the California Office of Emergency Services and the federal Department of Transportation. This study retrieved or collected data on bulk chemicals being transported on freeways, major city streets, and the railroad and through pipelines.

B.12.f
Vulnerabilities
People
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, hazardous materials may irritate the skin or eyes, make it difficult to breath, cause headaches and nausea, or result in other types of illness. Some hazardous substances can cause far more severe health effects, including: behavior abnormalities, cancer, genetic mutations, physiological malfunctions, physical deformations, and birth defects.

Structures
Fourteen Hazard Level 1 facilities hold sufficiently large quantities of toxic chemicals to pose a high risk to the community.111 TMD works directly with each of these sites to make

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sure they meet stringent safety requirements. Facilities in Table X are at the highest risk level.

Name Site Address
Airgas USA LLC 1224 Sixth Street
Bayer Healthcare LLC 800 Dwight Way
Berkeley Forge & Tool INC. 1331 Eastshore Highway
Comeback Brewing II, DBA
Trumer Brauerei
1404 Fourth Street
Davlin Coatings 700 Allston Way
Electro Coatings, INC. 893 Carleton Street
Form Energy 2810 Seventh Street
Henkel Corporation 800 Grayson Street
Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory
1 Cyclotron Road
PC Cargo 2424 Fourth Street
Polyplus Battery Company 2431 Fifth Street Suite B
Takara Sake USA, INC. 708 Addison Street
TPMG Regional Lab (KAISER) 1725 Eastshore Highway
UC Berkeley - Main Campus 200 California Hall MC

In the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in the Berkeley hills, there are two major sources of dangerous chemicals: UC Berkeley and the Berkeley Lab. Both have significant amounts of flammable and toxic chemicals, including radioactive chemicals. While both sites have active disaster preparedness programs, WUI fires are notoriously difficult to fight and hazardous materials could be released in a major conflagration.

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Systems
Transportation: Roadway or railroad closes during to a transportation- related hazardous material release could have serious impacts on the local economy and the ability to provide essential services. Hazardous materials can also contaminate water systems, impacting service and public health.

Natural, historic, and cultural resources
Hazardous materials can be devastating to animals and the natural environment.

Hazardous materials can kill organisms, destroy plants and animals, causing health complications in animals, and or limit the ability of the ecosystem to survive.

B.12.g
Potential Impacts and Losses
Previous events can provide valuable information about potential future scenarios. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake, classified as a moderate earthquake, resulted in a long list of earthquake-induced hazardous materials releases (EIHRs). Relevant releases include a train derailment resulting in 2,000 gallons of spilled sulfuric acid, 9 ruptures along the underground petroleum pipeline, and extensive hazardous materials releases resulting in serious fires in 3 buildings at California State University, Northridge. 112
Because of the uncertain nature of industrial accidents, loss estimates are not presented in this plan. City staff uses PEAC software to plan for and respond to chemical emergencies.

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B.13 Infectious Disease Outbreak
The City of Berkeley works in alignment with Alameda County, Bay Area Region, and California Department of Public Health to plan and respond to infectious disease.

B.13.a Description of Infectious Diseases
Infectious diseases are illnesses caused by germs, such as bacteria, viruses, and fungi; that enter the body, multiply and cause an infection. Some infectious diseases are contagious, meaning they can spread from one person to another. These diseases can be spread many ways, including direct contact, insect bites, food or water contamination, and airborne transmission. A threat of infectious diseases is an epidemic, which affects a large number of people in a population, community or region, or pandemic, which affects several countries or continents.

It should also be noted that bioterrorism can also involve communicable diseases. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has identified high priority biological agents that have the potential for major public health impact. These include:
• Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)
• B otulism (Clostridium botulinum toxin)
• Plague (Yersinia pestis)
• Smallpox (variola major)
• Tularemia (Francisella tularensis)
• Viral hemorrhagic fevers (filoviruses [e.g., Ebola, Marburg] and arenaviruses [e.g.,

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Lassa, Machupo])
The State of California has a list of over 95 communicable diseases, which must be reported by health providers or laboratories to local public health officials.

Connection to climate change
According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, our risk for infectious diseases is increasing because of climate change.
113
B.13.b Location of Infectious Diseases
All of Berkeley is susceptible to infectious diseases. The populations at the highest risk for infectious diseases are the very young, the elderly, or individuals who are immunocompromised. However, higher-poverty neighborhoods of color are at greater risk due to the effects of health and social inequalit ies. In addition, because of the communicable nature of these diseases, those who are especially at-risk include people experiencing homelessness and people in congregate settings, such as people in long - term care facilities or dormitories.

B.13.c
Extent of Infectious Diseases and Anticipated Intensities Infectious diseases vary in their impact and severity depending on the disease. These complications can range from minor to severe illness or death. The impact of the disease is also affected by environmental factors and human behavior.

B.13.d Previous Infectious Disease Events
Since the last update, there was a federal declared disaster for the COVID-19 pandemic (DR-4482). In 2020, the start of the COVID -19 pandemic began. A total of 23,887

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polymerase chain reaction ( PCR) cases were confirmed in the City of Berkeley. In response to the pandemic, City of Berkeley issued several health alerts and protocols to align with the Bay Area, California Department of Public Health (CDPH), and Centers for Disease Control (CDC) guidance to limit the spread of infection.

Berkeley residents have been affected by the following other infectious disease outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics over the last 15 years. • In 2009, H1N1 caused over 8,917 hospitalizations and 578 deaths in California.

The California Department of Public Health ( CDPH) released stockpiled N95 respirators for use by health care facilities experiencing shortages. Berkeley Public Health Division distributed supplies to Health care facilities experiencing shortages. Points of dispensing were set up Bay Area-wide to administer pandemic influenza vaccine.
• In 2011, there were 24 confirmed cases of mumps in Berkeley, with approximately 2 additional suspect cases. All confirmed cases were within the UC Berkeley campus community, and all persons had received 2 or more doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. In consultation with CDPH, City of Berkeley recommended a 3rd dose of MMR for UC Berkeley students living in congregate settings such as dormitories to help control the outbreak. • In 2014, more than 54 cases of pertussis were reported in Berkeley. This was a 5- fold increase compared to previous years. Berkeley cases ranged from infants to teenagers, with most being 10 - 17 years of age. Cases involved at least two schools in the Berkeley Uni fied School District. The state experienced more than 1,700 cases of pertussis. Clinicians were advised to immunize women with the tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) vaccine during every pregnancy between 27-36 weeks’ gestation to optimize antibody transfer and protection of infants at birth, and to immunize young infants promptly with the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTaP) as young as 6 weeks during a community outbreak. • In 2015, California experienced a measles outbreak with over 100 confirmed cases statewide. Berkeley had 1 confirmed case; there were 6 cases in Alameda County and many in surrounding Bay Area counties. Berkeley Public Health notified schools, preschools and daycare communities recommending staff and students be protected against measles with the MMR vaccine.
• In 2018, multiple outbreaks and cases of n orovirus were reported to the City of

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Berkeley Public Health Division. A health alert was issued to remind ill persons to practice good handwashing and to avoid preparing food for others while they are sick and for at least 48 hours after symptoms resolve. Clinicians were advised to consider norovirus in patients presenting with diarrhea, vomiting, nausea and abdominal pain, and Instruct patients with norovirus/gastrointestinal (GI) illness to remain home from work or school until 48 hours after symptoms have resolved. • In 2019, an outbreak in San Diego, Santa Cruz and Los Angeles counties alerted Alameda County and the City of Berkeley to take precaution, and provide post - exposure prophylaxis and pre- exposure prophylaxis to high- risk populations.

Groups at highest risk included persons using illicit drugs, men who have sex with men, persons with chronic liver disease, and persons experiencing homelessness. • In 2022, multiple clusters of monkeypox (mpox) virus were reported in several countries, including the US. Many of the cases involved men who have sex with men (MSM) without a history of travel to an endemic country. There were 16 confirmed cases in the City of Berkeley. As a precaution, multiple Bay Area counties provided post -exposure prophylaxis and pre- exposure prophylaxis to high-risk populations. City of Berkeley partnered with Alameda County, CDPH, East Bay Advance Care, Asian Health Services, and Steamworks to provide mass vaccination sites weekly at Steamworks for 5 months.

B.13.e
Probability of Future Events
The concern for future events is determined by asking the following questions:
• How easily does the disease spread?
• How susceptible is the population to this disease?
• Has this disease been a recent issue?
• These questions were evaluated using the following factors:
• How easily does the disease spread?
• Mode of Transmission
• R 0 – Rate of infection in a susceptible population
• How susceptible is the population to this disease?

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• Vaccine Effectiveness
• Vaccine Coverage
• Has this disease been a recent issue?
• Confirmed cases in Berkeley in 2022 alone
• Confirmed cases in Berkeley 2010-2022
• Year of the last outbreak or epidemic in Berkeley, Alameda County or California Scores were assigned to the responses or values for each factor. Low scores indicate less concern, higher scores indicate more concern. The average of the scores for the factors available were used to determine and overall measure of no, low, medium or high concern.

Factor No concern - 0 Low Concern -
1 Medium
Concern - 2
High Concern
- 3
Mode of
Transmission
Not
transmissible
Physical
contact,
Fecal-oral
Respiratory
droplets
Airborne
R0 0 <2 2-7 >7
Vaccine
Effectiveness
100% >75% 50-74.9% <50%
Vaccine
coverage for at
least 1 dose
>95% 80- 94.9% 50-79.9% <50%
Confirmed
cases 2022
0 1-10 11-50 >50
Confirmed
cases 2010-
2022
<10 10-29 30-99 >100
Year of last
outbreak/epide
mic
>15 years ago 10-15 years
ago
5-10 years ago <5years ago
Concern for
major outbreak
or epidemic
average score
Overall average
score = 0-0.99
Overall average
score = 1-1.99
Overall average
score = 2-2.99
Overall average
score = ≥3

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Infectious
Disease
Mode of
Transmission
R0 – Rate of
infection in a
susceptible
population
Vaccine
Effectiveness
Vaccination
Coverage
Berkeley
Confirmed
Cases in 2022
alone
Berkeley
Confirmed
Cases 2010-2022
Year of last
outbreak or
epidemic in
Berkeley,
Alameda County
or California
Concern for
major outbreak
or epidemic
Seasonal
Influenza Respiratory
droplets

0.9-2.1cxiv 19-
60%cxv
US 2022–
Children 6 months – 17
years old – 55.6%
Adults 18+ - 47.4%cxvi
No Data No Data N/A Med
2009 H1N1
Influenza Respiratory
droplets

1.46-

1.48cxvii
62%cxviii US 2009 –
all people 6 months and
older– 41.2%cxix
No Data No Data 2009 Low
COVID-19 Respiratory
droplets

1.5-3.5cxx 17-
80%cxxi
Berkeley 2023
All people – 94%
primary series
completed; 38% up to
datecxxii
15,500+ 23,800+ 2020-present Med
Pertussis Respiratory
droplets
12-17cxxiii 34-
73%cxxiv
California 2018-2020 –
Children 24 months old,
≥4 doses – 84%
cxxv
US 2013 – adults –

28.9%cxxvi
1 106 2014 Med
Mumps Respiratory
droplets
10-12cxxvii 78-
88%
cxxviii
California 2018-2020 –
Children 24 months old,
≥1 doses – 91.4%cxxix
0 29 2011 Low

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Infectious
Disease
Mode of
Transmission
R0 – Rate of
infection in a
susceptible
population
Vaccine
Effectiveness
Vaccination
Coverage
Berkeley
Confirmed
Cases in 2022
alone
Berkeley
Confirmed
Cases 2010-2022
Year of last
outbreak or
epidemic in
Berkeley,
Alameda County
or California
Concern for
major outbreak
or epidemic
Measles Airborne
respiratory
droplets
12-18cxxx 93-
97%cxxxi
California 2018-2020 –
Children 24 months old,
≥1 doses – 91.4%
cxxxii
0 5 2015 Low
Mpox
Physical
contact

1.10-

2.40cxxxiii

47.4-

78.1%
cxxxiv
California 2023 – at risk
population – 66% one
dose; 41% fully
vaccinatedcxxxv
16 16 2022 Med
Hepatitis A
Fecal-oral 1.71-

3.67cxxxvi
95-
97%
cxxxvii
US 2017 – Children 35
months and older –

76.6% ≥2 doses
Adolescents 13-17
years old – 68.4% ≥2
doses
Adults ≥19 years –

10.9% ≥2 doses
0 4 2017 Low
Norovirus Fecal-oral 1.1-

7.2cxxxviii
No
vaccine
availabl
e
No vaccine available No Data No Data 2018 Med

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B.13.f Vulnerabilities
People
Infectious diseases can be difficult to evaluate due to the wide variation in disease characteristics. Therefore, they pose difficulties in terms of comprehensive risk assessments. According to the Alameda County Department of Public Health, “In Alameda County, communities of color face inequitable conditions that increase the risk of chronic diseases. Others especially at -risk of infection and disease transmission are people experiencing homelessness and people in congregate settings.” As of July 2023, 80 Berkeley residents lost their lives as a result of COVID-19 infections.

The death rate for African Americans residents is four times greater than Latino residents and nearly six times greater than whites , demonstrating the disproportionate impact on disease and death on African American residents.

B.13.g
Potential Impacts and Losses
In most infectious disease outbreak, the impact is limited, with the majority of illnesses treatable and the likelihood of fatalities low. Large- scale outbreaks like the onset of COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 can strain existing health care facilities. As of July 2023, 250 Berkeley residents have been hospitalized as a result of COVID-19 infections and 80 Berkeley residents lost their lives as a result of COVID-19 infections.

The impacts of a pandemic go far beyond positive cases, hospitalizations and d eaths.

During the COVID-19 pandemic the stress, collective grief, physical and social distancing needed to slow the spread of the virus, and the resulting distress from lost wages,

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unemployment, and closures of educational and youth development programs created a secondary public health crisis.

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End Notes
1 Documentation is on file at the Berkeley Planning Department 2 The discipline of “Probability Management” was developed by Dr. Sam Savage, author of The Flaw of Averages. You can learn more about Probability Management at probabilitymanagement.org.

Earthquake
3 ATC 52-1. 2010. San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPSS) Project. Here Today Here Tomorrow: The Road to Earthquake Resilience in San Francisco.
http://www.sfgsa.org/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=9753. 4 Information adapted from the United States Geological Survey:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/mag_vs_int.php
5 https://wim.usgs.gov/geonarrative/safrr/haywired_vol1/ 6 Johnson, L. and Mahin, S. California Seismic Safety Commission Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER). 2016. The Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake of August 24, 2014: A Wake-up Call for Renewed Investment in Seismic Resilience across California.
http://peer.berkeley.edu/publications/peer_reports/reports_2016/CSSC1603- PEER201604_FINAL_7.20.16.pdf
7 Schwartz, Richard. Earthquake Exodus, 1906, 2006.
8 Detweiler, Shane and Wein, A., 2018, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario – Earthquake Hazards: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013-A-H, p.3. 9 Detweiler, Shane and Wein, A., 2018, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario – Earthquake Hazards: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013-A-H, p.4. 10 https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-large-amounts-rain-california-cause-increase- earthquakes
11 City of Berkeley Budget Book FY23-24, Community Profile Data 12 2020 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year Estimates. 13 These buildings are categorized as SPC-2 according to the Hospital Seismic Safety Act.

Structural Performance Category (SPC) 1 is the most vulnerable ranking for buildings.

Many SPC 1 hospitals pose significant collapse risks. SPC 5 hospitals pose the least structural risk. Significant changes impacting life safety were made to the Building Code in 1973, particularly regarding reinforced concrete buildings. These changes built on lessons learned in California earthquakes, including the 1971 San Fernando earthquake.

According to state law, SPC-2 buildings must comply with standards intended to keep hospitals open and providing medical care following a severe earthquake by 2030.

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14 These buildings are categorized as SPC-3 and SPC-4. Structural Performance Category (SPC) 1 is the most vulnerable ranking for buildings. Many SPC 1 hospitals pose significant collapse risks. SPC 5 hospitals pose the least structural risk. 15 These buildings are categorized as SPC-1. Structural Performance Category (SPC) 1 is the most vulnerable ranking for buildings. Many SPC 1 hospitals pose significant collapse risks. SPC 5 hospitals pose the least structural risk.
16 Methane Emissions (EPA, 2018) https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview- greenhouse-gases#methane
17 The 2004 scenario was calculated using HAZUS-MH. The program’s default data on buildings (types and economic values) and soils (for liquefaction and landslides) were used. 2004 shelter figures are taken from a previous analysis conducted by the Association of Bay Area Governments. HAZUS estimates of shelter populations were lower. Special thanks to Rich Eisner for help preparing these estimates. 18 This 2013 LHMP Update includes impacts described in the 2008 FEMA/Cal EMA (Cal OES) Catastrophic Earthquake Incident Scenario. This scenario is based on a HAZUS- MH™ study completed by Charles A. Kircher, Hope A. Seligson, Jawhar Bouabid, and Guy C. Morrow as part of a series of papers presented at the 100th Anniversary Conference on the 1906 San Andreas Fault Earthquake. Descriptions of damage in this scenario is based on impacts expected from a magnitude 7.7 to 7.9 earthquake on the San Andreas fault, but the general level and type of impacts are expected to be similar for a Hayward fault event. The report was based on the most accurate data available at the time and the results were reviewed by peers. Additional analysis and data were prepared by Kircher, et al. for Golden Guardian 2006.
19 In 2004, estimate was $1.5 billion. Updated for 2018 using Consumer Price Index Inflation Calculator at http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl. 20 About 20% of ignitions typically occur within the first hour after the earthquake, 50% within about 6 hours and almost all ignitions occur within the first day.

Risk, S. P. A. "Enhancements in HAZUS-MH Fire Following Earthquake, Task 3: Updated Ignition Equation pp. 74pp. SPA Risk LLC, Berkeley CA. Principal Investigator C.Scawthorn. Prepared for PBS&J and the National Institute of Building Sciences, San Francisco (2009).
21 Estimation derived from Ch. 10, particularly Eqn. 10-1, of HAZUS Earthquake Tech Manual MR 4: FEMA, 2003. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, HAZUS- MH MR4 Technical Manual. Developed by: Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Mitigation Division, Under a contract with: National Institute of Building Sciences Washington, D.C., p. 712. 22 In 2004, estimate was $20 million damage from 5 estimated fires. This plan estimates 6- 12 fires. If $4 million/ignition assumed, $24 million - $48 million damage is estimated in 2004 dollars. This figure was then updated for 2023 to $40 million - $80 million using Consumer Price Index Inflation Calculator at http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl. 23 Detweiler, Shane and Wein, A., 2018, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario – Engineering

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-232

Implications: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013-I-Q, p.6. 24 Detweiler, Shane and Wein, A., 2018, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario – Engineering Implications: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013-I-Q, p.390.
25 In 2004, estimate was $215 million. Updated for 2018 using Consumer Price Index Inflation Calculator at http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl.

Wildland Urban Interface
26 Mietkiewicz, et al. (2020) “In the Line of Fire: Consequences of Human-Ignited Wildfires to Homes in the U.S. (1992–2015)”. Fire 2020, 3 (3), 50:
https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030050
27 California Department of Public Health. 2008. Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for California.
http://resources.ca.gov/climate_adaptation/docs/Statewide_Adaptation_Strategy.pdf 28 Pacific Institute. (2010). A Review of Social and Economic Factors that Increase Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts in California.
29 2020 Alameda and Contra Costa County Wildfire Risk to Structures and Wildfire Hazard Maps for Fire Prevention Planning, East Bay Regional Parks, et al.

30 Map 5 of Berkeley, with data from Tukman Geospatial, uses the wildfire hazard data from Map 3 and structure density data from Alameda county from 2017-2022 and Microsoft Building Footprints from 2019-2020. The resulting risk to structures map provides an explicit ranking for 10-acre hexagons, assigning each hexagon with a ranking for wildfire hazard and a ranking for housing density. From a risk to structures perspective, hexagons with high housing density and high wildfire hazard are of greatest concern. Map 13 shows the highest hazard hexagons are located on the Eastern border of the city, with most of them bordering Tilden Park. The moderate hazard areas area in the same neighborhoods, but begin coming in closer to Central Berkeley. Researchers chose to only show hexagons with a “Moderate” hazard and at least one structure. As a result, the Berkeley flatlands do not have any coloring because it is classified as having a low relative hazard.
31 Maranghides, A., et al. (2022) WUI Structure/Parcel/Community Fire Hazard Mitigation Methodology. NIST Technical Note 2205. National Institute of Standards and Technology. Gaithersburg, MD. https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2205 32 https://firesafemarin.org/
33 Stanford B, Grossinger RM, Askevold RA, Whipple AW, Leidy RA, Beller EE, Salomon MN, Striplen CJ. 2011. East Contra Costa County Historical Ecology Study. Prepared for Contra Costa County and the Contra Costa Watershed Forum. A Report of SFEI’s Historical Ecology Program, SFEI Publication #648, San Francisco Estuary Institute, Oakland, CA.
34 https://firesafemarin.org/create-a-fire-smart-yard/plants/fire-hazardous-plants/ 35 Judson Jones. “One of the California Wildfires Grew so Fast It Burned the Equivalent of a Football Field Every Second.” CNN. Accessed May 16, 2019.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-233

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/09/us/california-wildfires-superlatives-wcx/index.html. 36 Grizzly Peak fire reduced to 'patrol status'; being investigated as possible arson (berkeleyside.org)
37 City of Berkeley. Fire Hazard Mitigation Plan. February 25, 1992. 38 San Francisco Fire Department Report on the 1991 Oakland-Berkeley Hills Conflagration. https://sfmuseum.org/oakfire/berkeley.html
39 https://www.fire.ca.gov/our-impact/statistics
40 Maranghides, A., et al. (2022) WUI Structure/Parcel/Community Fire Hazard Mitigation Methodology. NIST Technical Note 2205. National Institute of Standards and Technology. Gaithersburg, MD. https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2205 41 Total square footage of buildings in burn area is 9,386,281 square feet. 42 Excessive Heat Events Guidebook (EPA, 2006, Updated Appendix A 2016) https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-03/documents/eheguide_final.pdf 43 2017 Clean Air Plan (BAAQMD, 2017, Chapter 3, pg 11) http://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/files/planning-and-research/plans/2017-clean-air- plan/attachment-a_-proposed-final-cap-vol-1-pdf.pdf?la=en 44 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/
45 Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution, Union of Concerned Scientists (2011), p7
https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/c limate-change-and-ozone-pollution.pdf
46 Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution, Union of Concerned Scientists (2011), p12.
47 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S161886671630348X 48 https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/THAT-WAS-THE-WAVE-THAT-WAS-Bay-Area-s- string-of-2492288.php
49 California Statewide Heat Wave September 2017 (Climate Signals Beta, Updated July 20, 2018) http://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/events/california-statewide-heat-wave- september-2017
50 https://www.kqed.org/news/11614957/what-you-need-to-know-about-bay-areas-heat- wave
51 https://cal-adapt.org/about/
52 2017 Clean Air Plan (BAAQMD, 2017, Chapter 3, pg 9). 53 California Adaptation Planning Guide, July 2012.
54 Seo, H. (2022, August 19). How heat waves take a toll on Mental Health. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/19/well/mind/heat-mental-health.html 55 San Francisco Bay Area 2017 Risk Profile (ABAG, 2017) http://resilience.abag.ca.gov/wp- content/documents/mitigation_adaptation/RiskProfile_4_26_2017_optimized.pdf 56 2017 Clean Air Plan (BAAQMD, 2017, Chapter 3, pg 11). 57 UCLA Heat Maps (google.com)
58 Electric Heat Pumps Can Slash Emissions in California Homes (NRDC Pierre Delforge, 2018) https://www.nrdc.org/experts/pierre-delforge/electric-heat-pumps-can-slash- emissions-california-homes
59 https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2017/09/01/bart-trains-heat-wave-track-concerns/

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-234

60 Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies - Draft (2008, US EPA, Chapter 5, page 24) https://www.epa.gov/heat-islands/heat-island-compendium. 61 Jason Vargo et al., “The social and spatial distribution of temperature-related health impacts from urban heat island reduction policies,” Environmental Science & Policy 66 (2016), 366-374, available at http://www.
urbanclimate.gatech.edu/pubs/Vargo_2016.pdf.
62 San Francisco Bay Area 2017 Risk Profile (ABAG, 2017).

Air Quality
63 Thara Srinavasan, “Cost of excess hospitalizations and emergency department visits for the 2006 California heat wave,” Natural Resources Defense Council (August 2008), available at https://www.nrdc.org/ sites/default/files/hea_08082601a.pdf; Kim Knowlton et al., “Six Climate Change–Related Events In The United States Accounted For About $14 Billion In Lost Lives And Health Costs,” Health Affairs 30:11 (2011), 2167-76, available at https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/ pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0229. 64 Information provided by Assistant Professor Josh Apte, University of California, Berkeley, 2023.
65 Lappe, Brooke, and Jason Vargo. 2022. “Disruptions from Wildfire Smoke: Vulnerabilities in Local Economies and Disadvantaged Communities in the U.S.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Community Development Research Brief 2022-06. doi:

10.24148/cdrb2022-06.
66 Southerland, et al., 2021. “Assessing the Distribution of Air Pollution Risks within Cities:

A Neighborhood-Scale Analysis Leveraging High-Resolution Data Sets in the Bay Area, California.” Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 129, Issue 3. doi:

10.1289/EHP7679
67 California Department of Public Health, Wildfire Smoke, Considerations for California’s Public Health Officials, August 2022.

High Wind
68 Information from conversation with Meteorologist Brian Garcia, National Weather Service.
69 Managing Pests in Gardens: Environmental Factors: Wind— UC IPM (ucanr.edu) 70 https://www.berkeleyside.org/2023/05/02/berkeley-arborists-fallen-trees-winter- storms
Landslide
71 Finacom, Steven. “Berkeley, A Look Back: Thorsen Home Becomes Frat House.” Accessed April 17, 2019. https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/07/25/berkeley-a-look- back-thorsen-house-turned-from-private-home-to-fraternity-house/. 72 Pike et al. “Map and map database of susceptibility to slope failure by sliding and earth

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-235

flow in the Oakland area, California.” USGS MF-2385.

Tsunami
73 Raguso, Emilie. “With the Tonga Tsunami Surge Coming, Berkeley Moved Fast to Alert the City.” Berkeleyside, 4 Aug. 2022, www.berkeleyside.org/2022/01/23/berkeley- moved-fast-alert-public-tonga-tsunami-marina-evacuation. 74 https://www.berkeleyside.org/2011/03/11/tsunami-warning-for-bay-area-after-8-9- quake-in-japan
75 Overcrossing provides non-automobile access between the residential and business districts on the east side of I-80 and the Berkeley waterfront, Bay Trail and Eastshore State Park (Addison St and Bolivar Drive) to the west of the freeway (West Frontage Road and University Avenue).
76 California Geological Survey, University of Southern California, California State Lands Commission, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services: February 2018 DRAFT Harbor Improvement Report (HIR) No. 2018-Alam-01
77 The Dona Spring animal shelter, opened in 2012, is built above the 100-year flood plain but is still in the tsunami inundation zone
78 Porter, K., Byers, W., Dykstra, D., Lim, A., Lynett, P., Ratliff, J., Scawthorn, C., Wein, A., and Wilson, R., 2013, The SAFRR tsunami scenario—Physical damage in California, chap. E in Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., eds., The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1170, 168 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/e/.

Sea Level Rise
79 May, C. L.; Mohan, A.; Plane, E.; Ramirez-Lopez, D.; Mak, M.; Luchinsky, L.; Hale, T.; Hill, K. 2022. Shallow Groundwater Response to Sea-Level Rise: Alameda, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties. Pathways Climate Institute and San Francisco Estuary Institute. https://www.sfei.org/documents/shallow-groundwater-response-sea- level-rise-alameda-marin-san-francisco-and-san-mateo
80 California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment San Francisco Bay Area Region Report (State of California, 2018)
http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/regions/docs/20180827- SanFranciscoBayArea.pdf
81 California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment San Francisco Bay Area Region Report (State of California, 2018)
http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/regions/docs/20180827- SanFranciscoBayArea.pdf
82 State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance 2018 Update (California Ocean Protection Council, 2018).
http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/agenda_items/20180314/Item3_Exhibit- A_OPC_SLR_Guidance-rd3.pdf. This is the median probabilistic projections, meaning 50% probability sea-level rise will meet or exceed this level. 83 Adapting to Rising Tides Bay Area Sea Level Rise Analysis and Mapping Project (ART, 2017) http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/project/regional-sea level-rise-mapping-

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-236

and-shoreline-analysis/
84 ART Bay Shoreline Flood Explorer (adaptingtorisingtides.org) 85 California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment San Francisco Bay Area Region Report (State of California, 2018)
http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/regions/docs/20180827- SanFranciscoBayArea.pdf
86 Mathieu Casado, Raphaël Hébert, Davide Faranda & Amaelle Landais. The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica. Nature Climate Change, Volume 13, October 2023, pages 1082-1088.
87 Assessment of California’s Natural Gas Pipeline Vulnerability to Climate Change (California Energy Commission, 2017).
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2017publications/CEC-500-2017-008/CEC-500-2017-008.pdf 88 San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, 2011, p. 5 89 Land Subsidence in the United States, USGS Fact Sheet (USGS, 2000). https://water.usgs.gov/ogw/pubs/fs00165/
90 http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/BATA-ART-SLR- Analysis-and-Mapping-Report-Final-20170908.pdf
91 Adapting to Rising Tides Bay Area Sea Level Rise Analysis and Mapping Project (ART, 2017) http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/project/regional-sea level-rise-mapping- and-shoreline-analysis/
92 Climate change and harmful algal blooms | US EPA. (2022, December 15). US EPA. https://www.epa.gov/nutrientpollution/climate-change-and-harmful-algal-blooms Floods
93 In Berkeley, culverted creeks are below ground and within a pipe or box-shaped conduit in a creek bed.
94 The City of Berkeley Watershed Management Plan Appendix D, Page 9 lists design storms. The depth of the 10-year, 6 hour duration event varies from 1.81” to 2.27” depending on if the desired location is in the Bay Plains or in the hills. 95 The City uses a 10-year design storm as representation of a rainfall event that reflects local conditions.
96 Possible viral infections in flood disasters: a review considering 2019 spring floods in Iran - PMC (nih.gov)
97 Shallow Groundwater Response to Sea Level Rise | San Francisco Estuary Institute (sfei.org)
98 The Potter Watershed drains approximately one-third of the land area of the City through storm drain pipe infrastructure. The Codornices Watershed drains about one- tenth of the City through open watercourses and creek culverts. Findings from these two watersheds could be extrapolated to the other watersheds, but it is preferable to continue hydraulic modeling of the remaining watersheds. 99 California Adaptation Planning Guide, July 2012.
100 Contents were assumed to be worth 50% of the total structural replacement value for single-family homes and 100% of the total structural replacement value for commercial

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-237

and industrial properties. The majority of structures in the zone with up to 3 feet of floodwaters are residential, so contents for all structures in this zone were estimated at 50% of structure value. The majority of structures in the zone with up to 1 foot of water are commercial or industrial, and contents value was assumed to equal structure value for these properties.
101 Contents were assumed to be worth 50% of the total structural replacement value for single-family homes and 100% of the total structural replacement value for commercial and industrial properties. The majority of structures in the zone with up to 3 feet of floodwaters are residential, so contents for all structures in this zone were estimated at 50% of structure value. The majority of structures in the zone with up to 1 foot of water are commercial or industrial, and contents value was assumed to equal structure value for these properties.
102 In 2023, loss estimates quoted in the narrative were updated using Consumer Price Index Inflation Calculator at http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl. 103 Contents were assumed to be worth 50% of the total structural replacement value for single-family homes and 100% of the total structural replacement value for commercial and industrial properties. The majority of structures in the zone with up to 3 feet of floodwaters are residential, so contents for all structures in this zone were estimated at 50% of structure value. The majority of structures in the zone with up to 1 foot of water are commercial or industrial, and contents value was assumed to equal structure value for these properties.
104 Repetitive loss properties are those that have submitted claims for flood reimbursement through the National Flood Insurance Program at least twice in the last ten years. The goal of mapping these properties is to identify what locations flood repetitively and seek to mitigate the problem to reduce flood damage.

Utility Interruption
105 Public Works Commission, Disaster and Fire Safety Commission, and Transportation Commission. 2018. CONCEPTUAL STUDY TO UNDERGROUND UTILITY WIRES IN BERKELEY, p. 1-214. https://loridroste.
com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Conceptual-
Study-for-Undergrounding-2018.pdf
Hazardous Materials Release
106 Of the 528 facilities indicated, 469 meet chemical minimums; the remainder are smaller hazardous waste only generators that do not meet volume thresholds quotes. There are many more facilities that have some sort of hazardous materials on their sites, but they are not regulated by the City’s Toxics Management Division (per Jamie Cooney, City Toxics Management Division, August 2023).
107 These facilities have a minimum of 55 gallons of aggregate liquid chemicals, 500 pounds of aggregate solid chemicals, or 200 cubic feet of aggregate gaseous chemicals, or they may generate hazardous waste.
108 Both of these accident sites no longer store anhydrous ammonia.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-238

109 UC Berkeley and Berkeley Lab have since evaluated their storm water systems as potential hazardous materials conduits to the creeks.
110 The Northridge earthquake derailed a train carrying 2,000 gallons of sulfuric acid that began leaking. Firefighters were on the scene within two hours and the situation was stabilized with three and a half hours.
111 City Toxics Management Division, as of July 2023.
112 Earthquake-Induced Hazardous Materials Releases: Lessons from the Northridge Earthquake, Michael K. Lindell & Ronald W. Perry, August 1995.

Infectious Disease
113 https://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/what-we-do/climate-change-and-infectious- diseases/index.html
114 https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html 115 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm 116 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/dashboard/vaccination-dashboard.html 117 https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html 118 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3647645/ 119 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage_0910estimates.htm 120 https://sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html 121 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccine-effectiveness 122 https://berkeleyca.gov/safety-health/covid-19/covid-19-dashboards 123 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8489951/ 124 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/dtap-tdap-td/hcp/about- vaccine.html#:~:text=In%20studies%20demonstrating%20the%20efficacy,people%204% 20years%20after%20vaccination
125 https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/Vaccine/index.html
126 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819000/ 127 https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(20)30994-9/pdf 128 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html#:~:text=One%20dose%20of %20MMR%20vaccine%20is%2093%25%20effective%20against%20measles,(weakened) %20live%20virus%20vaccine
129 https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/Vaccine/index.html
130 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28757186/
131 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html#:~:text=One%20dose%20of %20MMR%20vaccine%20is%2093%25%20effective%20against%20measles,(weakened) %20live%20virus%20vaccine
132 https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/Vaccine/index.html
133 https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/6/1093
134 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2215201 135 https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/cases-data/mpx-jynneos-vaccine-coverage.html 136 https://www.jstor.org/stable/26515647;
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(22)00120-X/fulltext;

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan B-239

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6152969/#:~:text=The%20different%2 0statistical%20methods%20suggest,are%20consistent%20with%20this%20range 137 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/downloads/hepa.pdf 138 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5851036/#:~:text=However%2C%20we %20found%20that%20the,values%20estimated%20for%20particular%20outbreaks

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-1

C. Mitigation Strategy
Berkeley aims to be a disaster-resilient community that can survive, recover from, and thrive after a disaster. Berkeley envisions a community in which the people, buildings, and infrastructure in and serving Berkeley, are resilient to disasters; City government provides critical services in the immediate aftermath of a devastating event of any kind; and basic government and commercial functions resume within thirty days of a damaging earthquake or other significant event.

Disaster mitigation reduces or eliminates long-term risks to people and property from hazards and their effects, and/or provides passive protection at the time of disaster impact. Disaster mitigation is a foundational element of disaster resilience.

Element C of this plan outlines Berkeley’s mitigation strategy, and how it connects to Berkeley’s disaster resilience vision. The strategy identifies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and activities being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard described in Element B: Risk Assessment . The Strategy is based on existing authorities, policies, programs, and resources, as well as Berkeley’s ability to expand on and improve these existing mitigation tools as described in Elements C.1 of this plan.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-2

C.1 Authorities, Policies, Programs,
and Resources
The table on the following pages highlights some of the regulatory authorities, policies, programs and other resources that support Berkeley’s hazard mitigation efforts. The “Category” columns indicate whether the resource includes Planning and Policy, Financial, Administrative and Technical, and/or Training and Outreach Elements. The “Ability to support mitigation activities ” column overviews the City’s ability to use the identified resource to expand on and improve mitigation activities.

Following the table is a detailed discussion of these and other authorities, policies, programs, and res
ources. Finally, this section provides a table of State and federal requirements related to hazard mitigation and describes how Berkeley complies with these requirements.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-3

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Guiding Policies
and Goals
x Many City policies shape Berkeley’s growth. In addition to disaster resilience, City goals include protecting the environment, promoting sustainable development, providing low -income housing, preserving historic structures, and maintaining City infrastructure. Some of these policies directly support mitigation efforts; together they all ensure that mitigation activities account for City values.

Public Works x x The City of Berkeley’s Public Works Department is the largest department in the City and provides both direct services to the community, as well as critical support services to the City organization.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-4

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Emergency
Management
x x x The City’s Fire Department - Office of Emergency Services (OES) works to increase the Berkeley’s readiness through community education, staff support to the Disaster and Fire Safety Commission, and coordination of the City’s emergency management activities . OES develops, maintains, and exercises the City’s Emergency Operations Plan as well as the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan.

Taxing Authorities x The City’s General Fund gets the majority of its money from: a) property taxes and property-based revenues; b) economically sensitive revenues such as sales tax, business license tax, transient occupancy tax, etc.; and c) interest and fees such as ambulance fees; and parking and traffic fines.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-5

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Measure T1 x Measure T1 provides $100 million of funding from bond revenue to pay for improvements to City infrastructure and facilities. Berkeley voters passed Measure T1 in November 2016. Measure T1 funds are used for a variety of infrastructure improvements, including upgrading Senior Centers and Community Centers to immediate occupancy and increase their ability to serve the community regularly and during disasters.

Future mitigation actions could include upgrading additional buildings and or building new ones.

Measure FF x On November 2020, Berkeley voters passed Measure FF with 74.2% approval. Measure FF provides $8.5 million in funding annually from parcel taxes to pay for fire services, emergency response, 9-1- 1 communication, hazard mitigation and wildfire prevention.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-6

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Measure GG x In November 2008, Berkeley voters passed Measure GG, which authorizes the levying of a special tax that funds fire protection and emergency responses and preparedness.

City Budget x The City’s budget process assigns resources to address the goals, objectives, and community priorities set by the City Council. This process determines if and when money is spent on mitigation actions.

Municipal Building
Improvements
x x x The City, supported by an active public, local and State bond measure funding and FEMA grants, has strengthened and rebuilt numerous key buildings in Berkeley. Since 2014, the City has continued its program to strengthen or replace key at-risk structures.

Building Code x x The City enforces disaster -resistant development through the application of the California Building Code, as well as more stringent local code amendments.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-7

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Plan Set A x x The City’s adoption of Standard Plan Set A educates homeowners and contractors about measures to improve seismic resistance of their homes. Contractors’ adherence to this Standard simplifies the City’s plan review and inspection process.

Mandatory Retrofit
Ordinances
x The City has approved ordinances requiring owners of unreinforced masonry buildings and soft story buildings with five or more units to evaluate their buildings, obtain retrofit permits and complete seismic retrofits according to a schedule based on each building’s risk categorization. Future mitigation actions include ensuring that these retrofits happen and exploring future ordinances for other hazardous buildings.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-8

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Retrofit Grants
Program
x x x x The Building and Safety Division of the Planning Department developed a Retrofit Grants program with funding from a Hazard Mitigation Grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES).

Mitigation actions include disbursing grants, and con tinuing to seek Hazard Mitigation Grants to fund future rounds of the Retrofit Grants Program.

City Transfer Tax
Rebate Program
x x x x By ordinance, the City created a program to rebate up to one -third of the transfer tax amount to be applied to earthquake upgrades on homes.

Mitigation actions include advertising this program and conducting outreach to homeowners.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-9

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Earthquake Brace
+ Bolt
x x x x The City participates in the Earthquake Brace + Bolt (EBB) program, a grant program administered by th e California Earthquake Authority, which provides grants of up to $3,000 for seismic retrofits of owner - occupied residential buildings with 1-4 dwelling units. Mitigation actions include advertising this program and conducting outreach to building owners.

Earthquake Soft
Story (ESS)
x x x x The City participates in the Earthquake Soft-Story (ESS) Retrofit grants, offered by California Residential Mitigation Program, providing homeowners grants of up to $13,000 for seismic retrofits of single-family houses with a “soft story” living space built over a garage. Mitigation actions include advertising this program and conducting outreach to building owners.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-10

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Expanded
Inventory of
Potentially
Seismically
Vulnerable
Buildings
x x With the launch of the Retrofit Grants Program, staff conducted extensive research to update and refine the City’s inventory of potentially seismically vulnerable buildings. In addition to soft story buildings not currently subject to mandatory retrofit such as those with 3-4 residential units or commercial uses, Berkeley has numerous non- ductile concrete and tilt -up or other rigid wall -
flexible diaphragm
(RWFD) buildings. Future expansion includes conducting research to determine other hazardous buildings that should be inventoried and exploring additional mandatory retrofit ordinances.

Property Assessed
Clean Energy
(PACE)
x Property owners can borrow money to pay for green building improvements and spread the cost out over time with PACE financing.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-11

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Fire Department:

Prevention
Division
x x x Berkeley Fire Departments Fire Prevention Division works to decrease the number and severity of all fires in Berkeley . Mitigation actions include active code- enforcement program, public education activities, and engineering and plan review.

Fire Code x x The City of Berkeley adopted the 2022 California Fire Code along with more stringent Local Amendments. Mitigation actions include code updates and enforcement.

Hazardous Fire
Area Zones
x x The City has established and adjusted fire zones in Berkeley. While the zones were initially established to address urban fire issues, they have evolved to designate the City’s WUI fire hazard. Currently, the Berkeley Fire Department has divided the city i
nto Fire Zones 1, 2, and 3,
designated in order of ascending fire risk.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-12

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Fire Department:

WUI Division
x x x City of Berkeley Fire Department instituted a WUI division in 2021 supported with funding from Measure FF. The WUI Division is primarily responsible for the coordination of wildland mitigation efforts and related inspection activities. The ability for the Division to expand on mitigation activities is outlined in the Action Plan of the Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP).

Defensible Space
Inspections and
Home Hardening
Assessments
x x The WUI Division coordinates defensible space inspections and home hardening assessments of all homes in Fire Zones 2 and 3.

Resident
Assistance
Program
x The resident assistance program aims to provide financial assistance to residents who demonstrate physical or financial hardship in completing their required prescriptions for defensible space. Mitigation actions include expanding the program to more residents.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-13

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Community
Wildfire Protection
Plan
x In 2023, the City of Berkeley approved its first Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP). The CWPP is a roadmap for fire hazard mitigation and preparedness at both the City and neighborhood level s, identifying ways to mitigate Berkeley’s wildfire risk. The CWPP strategy includes goals for improving wildfire response, community preparedness, fuels management, infrastructure, ignition reduction, and home hardening.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-14

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Firewise
Communities
x x The Firewise USA® program, led by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), offers a structured approach for communities to enhance their wildfire resilience in California. The Berkeley Fire Department staff provide guidance to help intereste d neighborhoods achieve Firewise recognition. Currently, Berkeley has multiple Firewise communities. Future mitigation actions include expanding the number of communities.

Vegetation
Management
x x x The City runs a number of vegetation management programs to reduce fuel loads. Future mitigation actions include searching for funding to expand and add programs.

Hills Emergency
Forum
x x The City of Berkeley is a charter member of the Hills Emergency Forum, a consortium of nine agencies working on fire mitigation measures for the East Bay Hills. Future mitigation actions include partnering with the other agencies to reduce collective wildfire risk.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-15

Name of Authority,
Policy, Program, or
Resource
Category Ability to support mitigation activities
Planning
and
Policy
Financial Admin &
Technical
Training
&
Outreach
Diablo Firesafe
Council
x x The City is involved with Diablo Fire Safe Council (DFSC), a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization.

Community
Readiness
x x x The City runs a number of programs aimed to help enhance the resilience of people in the Berkeley community by providing disaster preparedness outreach, training, and materials. Training is provided in person and online, to individuals, neighborhoods, and community - based organizations. A number of these programs teach residents about mitigation actions that they could take individually, such as reducing earthquake hazards in the home and preparing their homes for wildfire season. Future mitigation actions include expanding on the household mitigation actions included in this plan and identifying powerful ways to deliver that information to residents.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-16

C.1.a Guiding Policies and Goals
Many City policies shape Berkeley’s growth. In addition to disaster resilience, City goals include protecting the environment, promoting sustainable development, providing low - income housing, preserving historic structures, and maintaining City infrastructure. Key policies impacting development are detailed below.

Sustainable Development
Berkley promotes sustainable development policies. The General Plan includes policies to maintain sufficient land zoned for high-and medium-density residential development. These policies allow for sufficient new construction to meet Berkeley’s fair share of regional housing needs. Policies are coordinated to ensure that all new development is sensitive to Berkeley’s unique physical character and scale, and that new housing and future development occur in areas of the city that are best served by public transportation.

Affordable Housing
Berkeley also promotes affordable, seismically -safe housing. The General Plan includes policies promoting access to quality housing for people at the lowest income levels, and inclusion of low -income groups in new housing development. The General Plan also encourages maintenance and improvements to prepare buildings for a major seismic event , with the expectation that improvements do not necessitate substantial rent increases for tenants. In January 2023, City Council adopted the Housing Element, which identifies policies and programs to provide and preserve healthy, resilient housing at a range of prices, with special attention given to special needs housing, homelessness prevention, and affirmatively furthering fair housing (AFFH).

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-17

Restoration of Natural Waterways
The General Plan’s Environmental Management section encourages the restoration of natural waterways. Many Berkeley streams were culverted in the 1960s as a flood control measure.

Any change in the status of these culverts, already in a weakened state, would alter the Berkeley’s flood risk.

Climate Mitigation and Adaptation
As outlined in Berkeley’s 2009 Climate Action Plan, Berkeley has community -wide goals to reduce emissions and mitigate our impact on global anthropogenic climate change. This includes reducing energy and water usage, moving toward clean energy in our buildings and transportation, reducing our waste, and ensuring sustainable and equitable development. In addition, the Berkeley community must adapt to the current impacts the community is already facing from the changing climate, as well as plan for future impacts projected to occur. Climate mitigation strategies are outlined in the Climate Action Plan, and continue to be implemented Citywide. The City’s climate adaptation strategies are included in the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan and the Resilience Strategy.

Preserving Historic Character
The City value s preserving historic character. Any hazard, and earthquakes and fires in particular, could destroy many historic structures, which tend to be more vulnerable to these hazards than newly -constructed buildings. The General Plan’s Urban Design and Preservation Element encourages support of long -term protection of historically - or architecturally-significant buildings to preserve neighborhood and community character through maintenance of the historic resources inventory, and use of the State Historical Building Code, Rehabilitation Tax Credits, and Mills Act contracts preservation incentives.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-18

Disaster Resilience
The Berkeley community recognizes that disasters have the potential to undercut all of the City’s goals. As stated in the General Plan:

The city’s healthy environment with its unique character and quality of life based on cultural, social and economic diversity could be dramatically and enduringly altered by a serious hazard event. Berkeley must protect what we already have as well as what we build through employing sound development practices and building and planning code enforcement, and continuously working to reduce the vulnerability of existing buildings and infrastructure, to improve emergency response and to prepare for recovery. Without these measures, disasters will occur and the other goals of the General Plan will be lost.

C.1.b
Public Works
The City of Berkeley’s Public Works Department is the largest department in the City and provides both direct services to the community, as well as critical support services to the City organization. Public Works is responsible for maintaining the City’s physical assets and infrastructure in a safe and serviceable condition. Public Works provides services ranging from refuse a nd recycling collection, diversion and disposal, to property management, infrastructure improvements, and improving safety in the public right -of- way.

Significant objectives expected to be accomplished by the department during FY 2023 and FY 2024 include the replacement of the City’s Transfer Station, developing a Zero Waste Strategic Plan, updating the citywide watershed management and storm drain master plans, construction of the underground utility district #48, and developing a Sewer Master Plan.

Three publicly-staffed commissions provide community oversight over Public Works activities:

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-19

• Commission on Disability
• Transportation and Infrastructure Commission
• Zero Waste Commission
C.1.c Fire Department
The Berkeley Fire Department provides 24-hour response to fires, medical emergencies, hazardous materials events, water rescues, disasters, and other life- threatening situations.

The Department serves the City of Berkeley and UC Berkeley and responds to over 16 ,000 calls each year.

Berkeley Fire Depar tment’s Fire Prevention Division works to decrease the number and severity of all fires in Berkeley through an active code-enforcement program, public education activities, engineering and plans review, and vegetation management. When fires do occur, Fire Prevention staff investigate fire origin and cause and, if needed, prosecute those who are responsible.

The Fire Department established a WUI division in 2021 using funds from voter -approved Measure FF. The WUI Division is primarily responsible for the coo rdination of wildland fire mitigation efforts and related inspection activities. This Division manages or assists wildfire suppression operations, emergency scenarios, planning department -wide activities and functions, programs, and coordinating personnel for the purpose of community service and fire protection.

The Disaster and Fire Safety Commission serves as the citizens’ oversight committee for expenditure of the proceeds of tax measures FF and GG.

C.1.d Emergency Management
The City’s Fire Department - Office of Emergency Services (OES) works to increase the

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-20

Berkeley’s readiness through community education, staff support to the Disaster and Fire Safety Commission, and coordination of the City’s emergency management activities. OES staff meets regularly with City’s designated emergency response staff to provide training and coordination. OES develops, maintains and exercises the City’s Emergency Operations Plan.

OES has 4 FTE positions.

Emergency management is a shared responsibility among all City departments. Department Directors are responsible for ensuring their respective departments’ readiness to contribute to disaster response activities. All City staff members are Disaster Service Workers and are required to provide services in the event of an emergency or disaster.

The Disaster and Fire Safety Commission participates in the review of emergency, disaster and mutual aid plans and agreements and makes recommendations to the City Council regarding legislation and regulations needed to implement such plans and agreements.

C.1.e
Taxing Authorities
The City’s General Fund gets the majority of its money from: a) property taxes and property- based revenues; b) economically sensitive revenues such as sales tax, business license tax, transient occupancy tax, etc.; and c) interest and fees such as ambulance fees; and parking and traffic fines. The balance of the City budget is comprised of other funding sources such as grants, special tax revenue (e.g. parks, libraries and paramedic services), and fees for specific services (marina berth fees, garbage and sewer fees, building permits, etc.).

California property taxes are set at 1% of the assessed value of the property. The City of Berkeley receives about a third of every property tax dollar collected in Berkeley, and schools get 43% of every property tax dollar. These proportions have been about the same since 1979.

Final Draft 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan C-21

Property tax revenue goes into the General Fund. This revenue is dependent on the fluctuating real estate market, and can vary dramatically from year to year. To protect City services from this volatility, much of this revenue is used for one- time infrastructure needs, such as streets and transportation projects.

C.1.f
Measure FF
In November 2020, Berkeley voters passed Measure FF with 74.2% approval. Measure FF provides $8.5 million in funding annually from parcel taxes to pay for fire services, emergency response, 9-1- 1 communication, hazard mitigation and wildfire prevention. The Fire Department manages the emergency response and preparedness projects funded by Measure FF, and the Disaster and Fire Safety Commission and the City Council review and approve projects to receive Measure FF funding. In the 2022 fiscal year, the City of Berkeley spent $3 million on 11 projects in the areas of disaster preparedness, department operations, emergency medical services, and employee development and training. $1.5 million was spent on disaster preparedness through three key projects:

1. Established a Wildland Urban Interface Division within the Fire Department to focus on improving the City’s preparedness for and resilience to wildfire. This team inspected 8,500 properties (83% more than the previous year) to ensure that they meet the City’s requirements for ‘defensible space,’ buffer between buildings and any combustible materials (such as vegetation).

2. Initiated public outreach for the development of a Community Wildfire Protection Plan, which has since been approved by City Council . The CWPP identifies the risks that Berkeley faces from wildfires along with goals and projects to help manage these risks.

3. Purchased a citywide outdoor warning system to assist with emergency notifications.

Installation of the 15 sirens is expected to be complete in 2024.

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C.1.g Measure GG
In November 2008, Berkeley voters passed Measure GG, which authorizes the levying of a special tax that funds fire protection and emergency responses and preparedness. In fiscal year 2024, the estimated total collections were around $5 million. Tax proceeds are first used to eliminate rotating closures of operating fire stations and to provide advanced life support personnel and equipment on all first responder vehicles. The funds are also used to hire additional training officers, hire staff to conduct Community Emergency Response Training and other similar public disaster training and preparedness efforts, as well as equipment to allow compatible radio communications throughout the City and with outside public agencies.

C.1.h
City Budget
The City’s budget process assigns resources to address the goals, objectives, and community priorities set by the City Council. The City’s FY 2023 & FY 2024 Biennial Budget was adopted by the Berkeley City Council at its June 28, 2022 meeting. The FY 2024 Adopted Update was approved by the Council at the June 27, 2023 meeting. The City’s budget follows the fiscal year - beginning on July 1st and ending on June 30th.

The City’s FY 2024 General Fund budget is approximately $276 million. The balance of the City’s budget is made up of special funds ($452 million combined), which are dedicated to specific services. While special fund revenue is dedicated, it is not guaranteed. Special funds also shrink in tough economic times.

There are three broad categories of special funds:

1. Special Revenue and Grant Funds are legally restricted to a specific service, e.g.:

Federal transportation funds, State public health funds, and the Parks, Library, and Paramedic Tax Funds.

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2. Special Assessment Funds are for the financing of public improvements or services, such as the Clean Storm Water Fund and the Streetlight Assessment District Fund.

Those two funds are examples of special funds where the revenues have not kept pace with the cost of delivering the service.

3. Enterprise Funds come from the collection of the fees associated with providing the service or program. For example, the Refuse Fund pays for the pi ckup and collection of garbage, recycling, and green waste. Services in this category include the Permit Service Center, the Sanitary Sewer Fund, and the Marina Enterprise Fund.

Additionally, the City has deferred maintenance on much of its capital infrast ructure. As the economy begins to slowly recover, the City is being mindful of the need to address deferred maintenance, as well as to remain prepared to address the impacts of future cost increases in areas such as health and pension benefits.

The City Co uncil has adopted budget development policies that have served Berkeley well over the long term, including:

1. Focusing on the long-term fiscal health of the City by adopting a two-year budget and conducting multi-year planning.

2. Building a prudent reserve based upon the City’s adopted General Fund Reserve policy and using the goal of reaching a reserve of 30% of General Fund revenues by 2027 as a guideline.

3. Developing long-term strategies to reduce unfunded liabilities.

4. Controlling labor costs while minimizing layoffs and promoting recruitment and retention of City staff.

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5. Primarily allocating one- time revenue for one- time expenditures (e.g., capital investments and deferred maintenance).

6. Requiring enterprise and grant funds to balance and new programs to pay for themselves.

7. Any new expenditure requires new revenue or expenditure reductions.

8. Property transfer tax:
a. Allocate excess property transfer tax over the baseline to short-term operational needs, General Fund reserves and the City’s capital infrastructure pl an, including funding an approach to returning and maintaining the City’s roads at an acceptable Pavement Condition Index.
b. Increase the property transfer tax baseline for operational needs to $18.0 million for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, with a permanent adjustment to $16.0 million beginning in fiscal year 2025.

9. Revenue generated from Measure P is excluded (exempt) from this policy.

10. As the General Fund subsidy to the Safety Members Pension fund declines over the next several years, the amount of the annual decrease will be used to help fund the new Police Employee Retiree Health Plan.

11. Allocating annual savings derived from the prepayment of the annual CalPERS unfunded liability payments to the City’s Section 115 Pension Trust up to $5.5 million per fiscal year or as advised by the City’s actuarial and staff.

12. Allocating any additional revenue earned from investments that is over the annual (fiscal year) baseline of $6 million in the following manner:

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a. 1/3 to the Section 115 Pension Trust up to $5.5 million per fiscal year, or as advised by the City’s actuarial and staff,
b. 1/3 to General Fund reserves up to 30% of General Fund revenue, or as recommended by Council policy, and
c. 1/3 to address the City’s capital infrastructure plan.

C.1.i
City Buildings and Systems
Municipal Building Improvements
The City, supported by an active public, local and State bond measure funding and FEMA grants, has strengthened and rebuilt numerous key buildings in the city. Since 2014, the City has continued its program to strengthen or replace key at-risk structures.

In 2021, work was completed on the Live Oak Community Center. A seismic structural update was necessary in order to prevent major damage to the building and to achieve an “immediate occupancy” rating in the event of an earthquake or other major disaster, as the site is included on the City’s list of potential shelters. Other upgrades for energy efficiency and sustainability were included to come closer to meeting the City’s climate action plan and resiliency goals.

The project also included necessary upgrades to increase accessibility at the site to meet new and current building codes. Funding sources included Measure T1 and Measure F bonds.

In 20 22, work was completed on the North Berkeley Senior Center . The renovations and seismic upgrade project modernized the interior and provides much needed upgrades to improve safety and functionality of the building, including seismic for “care and shelter” requirements as well as ADA compliance.

Currently, the City is using T1 Funds on the MLK Jr. Youth Services Center Retrofit and

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Renovation project and the Willard Park Clubhouse and Restroom Replacement Project. Both of these facilities will be upgraded to immediate occupancy status , meaning that post earthquake, only limited structural damage will have occurred. The Willard Park Clubhouse is currently under construction and the MLK Jr. Youth Services Center is in the design part of the process. Using T1 and General Funds, the African American Holistic Resource Center is currently in the design part of the process. The African American Holistic Resource Center (AAHRC) will be a facility to house culturally relevant services to help eliminate inequities within Berkeley's African American Community. The vision for the African American Holistic Resource Center is to host services to benefit the community with education, employment, health, mental health, and housing advocacy and supports. It will be built to immediate occupancy status.

Using funds from Measure T1 and funding from a FEMA grant, the South Berkeley Senior Center is being renovated to include disaster preparedness, electrification, energy efficient building systems, and other enhancements to the community building. It’s in the design phase.

The City is currently seeking opportunities for funding and grants to develop the design and complete construction for the Frances Albrier Community Center.

The City is regularly assessing vulnerabilities of other key City buildings and is developing funding strategies to upgrade buildings with known vulnerabilities.

Emergency Water Supply for Firefighting
In 2010, the City put into operation an aboveground, portable water system that can pump water from any source, including the San Francisco Bay, in the event of drained tanks or damaged pipelines. This system is designed to carry up to 20,000 gallons of water per minute for a distance of one mile and elevation gain of 100 feet; it will also carry smaller flows to higher elevations.

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C.1.j Privately-Owned Buildings
The City offers a comprehensive suite of programs to encourage the community to strengthen buildings to be more hazard-resistant. A number of City incentive programs and educational efforts promote seismic strengthening activities.

Building Codes
The City enforces disaster -resistant development through the application of the California Building Code, as well as more stringent local code amendments. The Provisions of the California Building Code are applicable to all new construction, additions, alterations and repairs.

Plan Set A
The City’s adoption of Standard Plan Set A educates homeowners and contractors about measures to improve seismic resistance of their homes. Contractors’ adherence to this Standard simplifies the City’s plan review and inspection process.

Mandatory Retrofit Ordinances
The City of Berkeley has worked diligently to enhance public safety and reduce physical threats from earthquakes by requiring owners of soft story and unreinforced masonry buildings to retrofit their structures. Berkeley Municipal Code (BMC) Chapter 19.39, effective January 4, 2014, mandated owners of soft story (also known as soft, weak or open front / “SWOF”) buildings with five or more dwelling units to apply for a building permit for a seismic retrofit by December 31, 2016. Owners were given two years to complete the work upon submission of the permit application. Previously, the City approved an ordinance in 1991 (BMC 19.38) requiring owners of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings to evaluate their buildings, obtain retrofit permits and complete seismic retrofits according to a schedule based

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on each building’s risk categorization but in all cases no later than 2001.

Through these hazard mitigation measures, the City of Berkeley hopes to increase the safety and resilience of the city’s building stock to prevent injury and loss of life and reduce post - disaster recovery time.

Soft Story Ordinance for Buildings with Five or More Dwelling Units Soft story buildings are characterized as multi -story wood- frame buildings with extensive ground story openings such as windows, storefronts, garage openings, or open- air spaces such as parking. These buildings may have few perimeter or interior walls at the ground level, leading to a relatively soft or weak lateral load resisting system in this lower story. Since t he collapse of soft story buildings in the 1989 Loma Prieta and the 1994 Northridge earthquakes, there has been considerable concern in California about tenant safety and the seismic deficiencies in these buildings. In 2005, Berkeley was the first city in the country to pass an ordinance to address this potentially unsafe condition.

Berkeley’s original 2005 ordinance added Chapter 19.39 to the Berkeley Municipal Code, requiring owners of soft story buildings with five or more dwelling units to submit a seis mic engineering evaluation report analyzing the ability of the building to resist earthquake forces and describing possible work to remedy weaknesses. The ordinance also required owners to notify tenants of the building’s soft, weak or open front (SWOF) condition and post an earthquake warning notice at the building entrance.

On December 3, 2013, Council adopted amendments to Berkeley Municipal Code Section

19.39.110 establishing mandatory seismic retrofit requirements for soft story buildings with five or more dwelling units. The ordinance established December 31, 2016 as the deadline for property owners to apply for a building permit. Owners must complete retrofits within two years of submitting the permit application.

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The initial wood-frame SWOF inventory included 321 buildings. As of September 2023, the inventory has increased to 364 buildings, containing 3,935 units. Buildings are typically added to the soft-story inventory as a result of building permit application submittal, staff research, or an inquiry submitted to the City by a tenant or property owner. The table below describes the status of the 364 soft story buildings subject to mandatory retrofit as of September 2023.

Number of
buildings

Percent*

Status
278 76 Retrofit Complete
7 2 Permit
12 3 Applied for Permit
5 1 Not Compliant or Newly Added
62 17 Removed from Inventory for Other Reasons
364 100% Total buildings identified as soft-story
*Due to rounding, percentages do not add up to 100 percent.

Map 1 below shows the retrofit status of soft story buildings subject to mandatory retrofit, as of September 2023. Green symbols depict parcels with retrofitted buildings, and red symbols shows parcels with buildings either out of compliance with BMC 19.39 or buildings recently added to the soft-story inventory.

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Unreinforced Masonry (URM) Ordinance
Unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings are generally constructed of brick, block, tile, stone, or other types of masonry, and were built prior to modern earthquake-resistant design. During an earthquake, unreinforced masonry walls that were originally built without adequate reinforcement (from embedded steel bars) are susceptible to collapse. In addition, URM buildings often include unreinforced masonry parapets, chimneys, and high brick veneers that tend to disconnect from the building and fall outward, creating a hazard for people below and in some instances causing the building to collapse. Weak or nonexistent connections between the masonry walls and the floors and roofs place occupants, pedestrians, and adjacent buildings in harm’s way.

Unreinforced masonry buildings are no longer constructed today, and existing URM buildings can be retrofitted to reduce risks caused by earthquake activity. If these buildings are not retrofitted and suffer major damage in an earthquake, the costs of repair after the earthquake could be prohibitively high and may result in demolition or loss of use.

In response to State law, the City of Berkeley compiled an inventory of unreinforced masonry buildings in 1989, identifying approximately 700 residential and commercial URM buildings that were built prior to 1956. In 1991, the City adopted the Unreinforced Masonry Ordinance 6088-N.S. Subsequent amendments to the ordinance required owners of unreinforced masonry buildings to evaluate their buildings, obtain necessary permits and complete seismic retrofits by 2001.

Of the approximately 700 buildings originally included in the City’s unreinforced masonry (URM) inventory, hundreds were removed from the list after owners provided evidence the buildings adequately met building standards or that the buildings were not unr einforced masonry structures. Of the original list, roughly 99% have been seismically retrofitted,

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demolished or demonstrated to have adequate reinforcement. As of September 2023, four buildings are still required to retrofit in order to avoid further penalties. Two of the four building owners have applied for retrofit permits.

Map 2 shows the unreinforced masonry (URM) inventory as of September 2023. Parcels in yellow contain buildings that are compliant with the Unreinforced Masonry Ordinance 6088- N.S. Red triangular symbols denote unreinforced masonry buildings still subject to mandatory retrofit, including those currently in the permitting process.

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C.1.k Financial Incentives for Buildings
Retrofit Grants
In early 2017, the Building and Safety Division developed a new Retrofit Grants program with funding from a Hazard Mitigation Grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES).

The groundbreaking program incentivizes both mandatory and voluntary retrofits of seismically vulnerable buildings through disbursement of design and construction grants to qualifying property owners. The Retrofit Grants Program initially focused on potentially hazardous unreinforced masonry buildings and “soft story” buildings with five or more residential units. The program later expanded to include three - and four -unit apartment buildings and non-residential wood-framed buildings with soft story conditions, as well as non- ductile concrete buildings, and rigid wall/flexible diaphragm buildings (including tilt -up buildings).

The Retrofit Grants Program , launched with the Building and Safety Division’s first Hazard Mitigation Grant in 2017, led to the strengthening of 61 buildings within the City of Berkeley and disbursal of $1,561,842.78 to individual property owners.

Building Type Quantity of Retrofits Completed
Mandatory Soft Story Retrofit 43
Voluntary Soft Story Retrofit 8
Unreinforced Masonry (URM) Retrofit 1
Rigid Wall – Flexible Diaphragm Retrofit 9
TOTAL 61

In 2020, the City was awarded an additional Hazard Mitigation Grant, enabling the Building &

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Safety Division to launch a second iteration of the Retrofit Grants Program. Under this new round of the Retrofit Grants Program, the list of building types eligible for grant funding was further expanded to include other wood-framed buildings with seismic deficiencies, including those with inadequate anchorage to foundation and/or inadequate cripple wall bracing, multi- family “weak story” buildings, one- story open- front buildings, and buildings with unique configurations.

As of September 2023, the 2020 Retrofit Grants Program has led to an additional 32 buildings being strengthened, with more retrofits scheduled for completion prior to grant closeout in early 2025.

Although single-family homes and duplexes are not typically eligible for funding under the Retrofit Grants P rogram, other funding opportunities are available for property owners and are detailed below.

City Transfer Tax Rebate Program
By ordinance, the City created a program to rebate up to one-third of the transfer tax amount for expenses from voluntary seismic upgrades to homes. When the owner wishes to sell the house and the sale amount has been determined, the buyer and seller place a portion of the real estate transfer tax amount in an escrow account to be drawn down after improvements are complete. Since July 2002, the City has distributed over $17 million to homeowners through this program.

Earthquake Brace + Bolt
The City participates in the Earthquake Brace + Bolt (EBB) program, a grant program administered by the California Earthquake Authority, providing grants of up to $3,000 for seismic retrofits of owner-occupied residential buildings with 1-4 dwelling units.

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The EBB program provides incentives to homes most vulnerable to severe damage in an earthquake, typically those built before 1979 with raised foundations and unbraced “cripple walls,” the wood-framed walls which surround the crawl space. Bracing the cripple walls with plywood and using anchor bolts to improve the connection between a home’s wood framing and its foundation are seismic improvements that can help reduce potential damage to a home during an earthquake.

The program supplements other programs to subsidize or finance seismic improvements in Berkeley homes; these programs can be used in combination or separately.

Earthquake Soft Story (ESS)
Earthquake Soft-Story (ESS) Retrofit grants, offered by the California Residential Mitigation Program, reimburses owners of single -family houses up to 75% of the total cost of code- compliant seismic retrofits, capped at $13,000, on properties with a “soft story” living space built over a garage.

This new program was launched in spring of 2023 to incentivize homeowners to strengthen houses constructed pre-2000 with seismic vulnerabilities from living space constructed over a garage. The program supplements other programs to subsidize or finance seismic improvements in Berkeley homes; these programs can be used in combination or separately.

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C.1.l Expanded Inventory of Seismically Vulnerable Buildings With the launch of the Retrofit Grants Program, staff conducted extensive research to update and refine the City’s inventory of seismically vulnerable buildings. In addition to soft story buildings not currently subject to mandatory retrofit such as those with 3-4 residential units or commercial uses, Berkeley has numerous non-ductile concrete and tilt-up or other rigid wall- flexible diaphragm (RWFD) buildings. These additional building types may also be highly susceptible to adverse effects from earthquakes.

Although no ordinance currently requires property owners of these building types to retrofit, the City of Berkeley has encouraged owners to apply for grant money under the City’s Retrofit Grants Program.

Non-Ductile Concrete Buildings
Non-ductile concrete buildings built prior to the mid- 1970’s and modern seismic code standards have performed very poorly in recent earthquakes, and have resulted in catastrophic collapses. In older concrete buildings, the detailing and construction of the reinforcing steel may be inadequate to safely resist large seismic forces caused by ground motions on these heavy structures. The most vulnerable buildings contain elements like columns, wall piers, and joints of beams and slabs that can fail in an earthquake. These buildings are considered “non- ductile” (i.e. brittle) concrete buildings and pose a high risk during a major earthquake. Retrofits of these buildings can vary widely in terms of scope and level of difficulty, and are often expensive to retrofit or rebuild.

Rigid Wall-Flexible Diaphragm (RWFD) Buildings Including Tilt-Up Buildings Tilt-up or other rigid wall -flexible diaphragm building types are typically one- or two -story commercial buildings with reinforced concrete or reinforced masonry (brick or concrete block) walls. A “tilt-up” building is a specific type of building with precast concrete walls and is

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distinguished by its method of construction. RWFD have “flexible” roof diaphragms that consist of wood or steel beams, trusses, or rafters with wood sheathing or metal decking above. They may also have flexible diaphragms at intermediate floor levels. These buildings commonly include warehouses, manufacturing facilities, large retail stores , and other similar structures. The most common deficiency is an inadequate connection between the rigid walls and the roof (and floors) leading walls to pull away and collapse during ground shaking.

Buildings designed under codes that predated the 1998 California Building Code are of primary concern.

Soft Story and Other Wood-Framed Buildings Not Subject to Mandatory Retrofit Similar to Soft Story buildings subject Berkeley Municipal Code Section 19.39.110, those with only 3-4 unit or commercial uses are also vulnerable to collapse in the event of an earthquake due to weak lateral load resisting systems.

Other wood-framed buildings with seismic deficiencies include those with inadequate cripple wall bracing and anchorage to the foundation and can result in buildings sliding off supporting foundations and cripple wall collapses. Additionally, the lowest story of multi -story buildings (3+ stories) may also be vulnerable to significant damage due to high demand to- capacity ratios and are primarily found to the south of UC Berkeley (Southside) and extending along College Avenue and nearby streets.

Open front one- story buildings common to major commercial corridors, while having less mass to drive seismic response than multi -story buildings, are still anticipated to have very significant torsional response and have potential concerns of partial or complete collapse.

Buildings with unique configurations that could potentially be vulnerable to an earthquake have also been observed within the Berkeley building stock. These buildings are anticipated to be of an age that engineering for seismic loading would not have been provided at the time

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of construction.

Process for Updating the Inventory of Seismically Vulnerable Buildings The City has worked diligently to update and broaden its inventory of seismically vulnerable buildings to include potentially non-ductile concrete and rigid wall -flexible diaphragm buildings, and soft story buildings with 3- 4 residential units or commercial uses. This effort began with extensive staff research to identify vulnerable buildings using City and other data sources. It was followed by a field study with the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) to assess a portion of the newly identified non-ductile concrete and rigid-wall flexible- diaphragm buildings and a “virtual survey” to identify potential soft story buildings. This inventory has been utilized to target outreach efforts for the Retrofit Grants Program and to alert property owners of potential grant funding opportunities. Many of the buildings included in the inventory have not been evaluated by a licensed professional and are therefore viewed as “potentially vulnerable” to seismic activity. Assessment by a structural engineer or other qualified professional is required to determine whether or not seismic deficiencies exist within specific buildings.

Inventory of Potentially Seismically Vulnerable Buildings Previously, the City identified 1,047 potentially seismically vulnerable buildings that did not already appear on the soft story or URM inventories , including 230 potentially non- ductile buildings and nearly 550 buildings that may be rigid wall-flexible diaphragm, including tilt-ups.

The City also added to the inventory approximately 240 soft story buildings not subject to mandatory retrofit under Chapter 19.39 of the Berkeley Municipal Code. Some of these buildings have now completed retrofits under the City of Berkeley’s Retrofit Grants Program.

Map 3 shows Berkeley’s Inventory of Potentially Seismically Vulnerable buildings, developed in 2018. Potentially soft, weak or open front (SWOF) buildings are somewhat evenly spread

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throughout the City. Potentially non- ductile concrete buildings and rigid wall -flexible diaphragm buildings are more heavily concentrated along commercial corridors and west of San Pablo Avenue. Non-ductile concrete buildings are also clustered in central Berkeley, and near the UC Berkeley Campus. Soft story buildings are depicted in blue, non-ductile concrete buildings in orange, rigid wall -flexible diaphragm buildings in purple, and unreinforced masonry buildings in red.

This map reflects properties that may be eligible for funding under the City of Berkeley Retrofit Grants Program.

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C.1.m Fire Risk Reduction
The City, working together with key partners, is using a comprehensive strategy to aggressively mitigate Berkeley’s wildland -urban interface (WUI) fire hazard. These approaches include prevention through development regulations; natural resource protection through vegetation management; protection of the built environment through defensible space and home hardening; improvement of access and egress routes; and infrastructure maintenance and improvements to support first responders’ efforts to reduce fire spread.

Fire Prevention Division
City of Berkeley Fire Departments Fire Prevention Division works to decrease the number and severity of all fires in Berkeley. Mitigation actions include active code- enforcement program, public education activities, and engineering and plan review.

Fire Code
The City of Berkeley adopted the 2022 California Fire Code with Local Amendments. The Fire Code incorporates the latest knowledge and state regulations to protect people and property against known risk in both structural and non- structural building and site components.

Mitigation actions including expanding the number of inspected properties and enforcing code requirements that contribute to life safety.

Hazardous Fire Area Zones
The City has established and adjusted fire zones in Berkeley. While the zones were initially established to address urban fire issues, they have evolved to designate the City’s WUI fire hazard. Currently, the Berkeley Fire Department has divided the city into Fire Zones 1, 2, and 3, designated in order of ascending fire risk. Fire Zones 2 and 3 are in the hills area of the City. Mitigation actions include maintaining the strictest standards for fire prevention and

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vegetation management measures in Fire Zones 2 and 3.

Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) Division
City of Berkeley Fire Department instituted a WUI division in 2021 supported with funding from Measure FF. The WUI Division is primarily responsible for the coordination of wildland mitigation efforts and related inspection activities.

Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP)
In 2023, the City of Berkeley approved its first Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP).

The CWPP is a roadmap for fire hazard mitigation and preparedness at both the City and neighborhood levels, identifying ways to mitigate Berkeley’s wildfire risk. The CWPP strategy includes goals for improving wildfire response, community preparedness, fuels management, infrastructure, ignition reduction, and home hardening.

Defensible Space and Home Hardening Inspection Program
The WUI Division coordinates defensible space inspections and home hardening assessments of all homes in Fire Zones 2 and 3. Dedicated inspectors from the WUI Division inspect 8,600 parcels on an annual basis, providing mitigation actions to property owners.

Inspections provide an opportunity for specific education of property owners regarding steps to mitigate the risk of WUI fire on their properties. Data gathering from these inspections helps the Fire Department to better profile and model the risk of WUI fire to Berkeley.

Resident Assistance Program
The resident assistance program aims to provide financial assistance to residents who demonstrate physical or financial hardship in completing their required prescriptions for defensible space. In 2024 CalFIRE announced that the BFD was awarded a grant to fund its Defensible Space Resident Assistance Program (RAP) in the VHFHSZ over a three- year

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period to interrupt the contiguous vegetative fuel in these pathways and inhibit the transmission of wildfires. The RAP will provide financial assistance to Berkeley Hills residents who are low-income, senior citizens 65 years or older, and those with physical disabilities to help achieve defensible space within Zone 0, Zone 1 and Zone 2 on their properties in compliance with State law and best practice.

Vegetation Management Programs
The City also runs a number of vegetation management programs to reduce fuel loads, including:
• The Fire Fuel Chipper Program, a popular yard waste collection service, expanded citywide. It includes free curbside chipping, pickup, and disposal of vegetation materials from residential properties to assist residents in their efforts to create and maintain a defensible space around their home. The expanded program now makes it easier to schedule free chipping and disposal.
• A fire fuel abatement program on public land. This program was maintained in order to reduce fire fuel on public property.
• The Fire Fuel Debris Bin Program is coordinated by the Department of Public Works’ Zero Waste Division, which delivers and removes 30- yard rol l-off boxes from requesting neighborhoods.

• Additionally, residential and commercial plant debris and commercial food waste is collected each year through weekly curbside collection and converted to compost. • The Eucalyptus Understory Cleanup is a program that provides a one- time service to bring properties into compliance with best practice hazardous vegetation management practices. Planted in plantations over 100 years ago, eucalyptus groves can produce

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between 10 to 30 tons of dry matter per acre per year, increasing the potential to spread a ground fire. Eucalyptus trees can be extremely expensive to remove due to their size and age. Following participation in this program, residents will be required to maintain properties in adherence with the Fire Code.
• Planning for the City of Berkeley Fuel Break Project began in October 2023 and implementation will begin in 2024. Experienced fuel reduction crews, registered professional foresters, and traffic control crews will work to create fuel breaks along 40+ miles of high-traffic areas within Berkeley.
• The Fire Department’s WUI Division is also working to develop a comprehensive WUI work plan that will provide strategic guidance for related work for the next five years.

Plans are to expand existing programs and extend some services citywide, including fuel reduction on public lands and roadsides, private land incentives, debris bins, and citywide chipping services. Since 20 19, Berkeley has removed nearly 300 hazardous trees (mostly eucalyptus and Monterey Pine) from City parks, paths, and street rights- of-way. Another roughly 40 trees have been trimmed or cut back.

Firewise Communities
The Firewise USA® program, led by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), offers a structured approach for communities to enhance their wildfire resilience in California. This initiative promotes collaborative efforts among residents, the Fire Departments, and other key stakeholders to bolster the fire resistance of homes and surroundings. Neighborhoods raise awareness, organize at the community level, coordinate work, and take action to create fire- adapted communities through the implementation of defensible space standards. The Berkeley Fire Department staff provide guidance to help interested neighborhoods achieve Firewise recognition. Currently, Berkeley has multiple Firewise communities.

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Hills Emergency Forum
The City of Berkeley is a charter member of the Hills Emergency Forum, a consortium of nine agencies working on fire mitigation measures for the East Bay Hills. Future mitigation actions include partnering with the other agencies to reduce collective wildfire risk.

Diablo Firesafe Council
The City is involved with Diablo Fire Safe Council (DFSC), a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization.

The Council’s role in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties is to serve as a catalyst for bringing together people, agencies, and the means to substantially reduce the impact of wildland fire on our communities.

C.1.n
Community Readiness
Outdoor Warning System: Emergency Siren Network
In 2023, the City of Berkeley introduced a new outdoor warning system to alert people outdoors to emergency conditions. The outdoor warning system will broadcast siren tones and spoken life safety instructions over any of 15 sirens to be located on top of buildings throughout Berkeley. The system will be used alongside other alert and warning tools, including AC Alert, Berkeley's Emergency Map, and Wireless Emergency Alerts. Sirens are expected to be fully installed by the end of 2024.

Community Disaster Preparedness Training and the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) Program
The City of Berkeley offers free disaster readiness classes to Berkeley community members.

One curriculum is from the CERT program, which includes disaster preparedness, fire safety,

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disaster medical operations, light search and rescue operations, CERT Organization, and continuing education courses.

City staff instr uctors have developed additional training modules tailored to the Berkeley community, including Improvisational Leadership, fire extinguisher training and hands -only CPR. Staff continues to develop additional courses to reach more community members with disaster readiness education.

Instructors provide community trainings at the Fire Department training facility and City libraries. They also meet community members in their neighborhoods to provide disaster readiness trainings in their communities.

Community Emergency Supply Program (Disaster Caches)
For more than 20 years, the Disaster Cache Program incentivize d community-building for disaster readiness. T he City has awarded caches of disaster response equipment to neighborhoods, congregations, and UC Berkeley Panhellenic groups that have undertaken disaster readiness activities – chief among them, participation in the CERT program. Civilian CERT instructors also help recipient neighborhoods with “cache checks” to help community members with initial or refresher training on how to use the items in the cache.

A 2024 program assessment by researchers at the UC Berkeley Goldman School for Public Policy identified that the program has connected neighbors around disaster preparedness topics, but also that it has notable gaps in equity, sustainability, and scalability. Staff is considering the findings in this report in an effort to redesign the program to help meet community needs the next 20 years.

Community Resilience Center (CRC) Program
Through the CRC program, the City of Berkeley’s Office of Emergency Services and Public

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Health Emergency Preparedness Divisions partner with community organizations serving marginalized community members on disaster readiness topics. The CRC Program’s goal is to enhance the resilience of the people of Berkeley by strengthening the organizations they depend on day -to-day and providing disaster preparedness outreach and training through organizations they know and trust. The City selected CRC organizations based on their connection to Berkeley community members who have not been reached by the City’s existing preparedness programs. CRC organizations agree to host trainings and participate in disaster preparedness-related events that are customized to fit their audiences. In return for hosting training they receive emergency supplies to help them serve their community following a disaster.

Community Oversight
The Disaster and Fire Safety Commission advises the City Council on all matters affecting fire safety and/or disaster resilience within Berkeley. The Commission also serves as the citizens’ oversight committee for expenditure of the proceeds of Measures FF and GG.

C.1.o
State and Federal Programs
Many City ordinances and programs are based on State requirements. The State has numerous laws that regulate issues ranging from hospital seismic safety to coastal development. The table below highlights important State laws related to hazards, and describes how Berkeley complies with these laws.

Statewide Requirements Berkeley Implementation
Mandatory Building Code. The State
requires all communities to enforce the
Berkeley enforces the State building code
with additional local provisions for seismic

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State- mandated building code. The
building code applies to new buildings and
additions, renovations and remodeling of
existing buildings. The effectiveness of
designs based on the code to resist
earthquakes has improved incrementally
over time. The code is not applied
retroactively, meaning that building
owners do not have to retrofit existing
buildings to improve earthquake, fire or
flood resistance unless the work proposed
exceeds previously -
defined thresholds.

Certain types of buildings designed to
early codes have characteristics that
make them vulnerable to collapse in
catastrophic earthquakes.
and fire safety. The City has adopted the
2022 California Building Code and 2022
California Residential Code. Berkeley’s
application of WUI fire standards exceeds
current State requirements.

Essential Services Buildings. State law
requires that new essential services
buildings, such as police, fire, and
emergency operations and
communications centers, meet a higher
safety standard than other buildings. The
standards include backup utilities and
design and construction checks by
The Public Safety Building, which houses
the 9-1- 1 emergenc y communications
center and Emergency Operations Center,
along with all seven fire stations, the Fire
Warehouse and the Ratcliff building, have
all been built or retrofitted to meet essential
services requirements.

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inspectors following State guidelines.

Safety Element and General Planning
Requirement. State law requires all cities
and counties to prepare, adopt and keep
current a general plan. Part of the plan is
the “Safety Element” which defines the
community approach to disaster
preparedness and mitigation.

Berkeley completed updates to the
General Plan, including the Disaster
Preparedness and Safety Element, in
2003. One of the plan’s key goals is to
make a disaster -resilient community. The
Safety Element has a mitigation approach
and significant policy and action
recommendations. The 2004 m itigation
plan built directly from the General Plan,
and this 2024 update continues to use the
General Plan as a strategic guide.

Additionally, as of 2024 the City has begun
work on updates to the Disaster
Preparedness & Safety Element of the
General Plan, as well as a new
Environmental Justice Element.

Environmental Review. The California
Environmental Quality Act requires that
government entities consider the
environmental consequences of
discretionary decisions having a
substantial environmental impact. CEQA
guidelines require evaluation of the effect
The City of Berkeley complies with State
CEQA requirements.

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of hazards on developm ent and the
resulting consequences for the
environment.

On occasion, certain emergency safety
projects are exempted from the CEQA
process.

Fault Zones. Alquist-Priolo Earthquake
Fault State requi rements prohibit
construction of public schools and
buildings within the designated fault
zones. Houses with three or fewer units
are exempt from these provisions. Real
estate law requires disclosure of the fault
zone at the time of sale, and requires
zone maps to be available for review by
the public.

The California Geological Survey created
maps that delineate a ¼ -mile-wide fault
zone through the east side of the city,
where the Hayward Fault is located. The
Risk Assessment of this mitigation plan
replica
tes these maps. Because of the
well-defined surface expression of fault, it
is reasonable to expect ground surface
rupture in this area during future
earthquakes.

Seismic Hazards Maps. The California
Geologic Survey mapped seismic zones
where earthquake-induced landslides and
liquefaction are likely. The State requires
site-
specific investigations for new
building in these zones.

Seismically-induced landslide risk maps
are available in the Risk Assessment of
this plan. The City enforces State
requirements by requiring site- specific
investigations and feasible mitigation
measures.

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Disclosure of Earthquake Risk. Four
State laws work in tandem with State real
estate requirements that mandate full
disclosure of information pertinent to
building purchase decisions. Owners of
homes built before 1960 and certain
commercial buildings are required to
provide information on seismic
vulnerability. Sellers must also disclose if
the parcel is located in a mapped fault
zone or seismic hazard area.

The City of Berkeley complies with this
State law.

Bayfront Development. The City of
Berkeley abuts San Francisco Bay. All
land inundated by the highest tides is
within the jurisdiction of the San Francisco
Bay Conservation and Development
Commission (BCDC).

Developments within the City-owned and -
operated Berkeley Marina require a permit
from BCDC. The BCDC’s Engineering
Criteria Review Board subjected the
restaurants, harbormaster building and
piers to rigorous independent review
before construction. Full consideration is
given to the effects of deep- saturated, bay
mud soils and fill material. All development
in this zone must be elevated one foot over
flood levels.

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Hospital Seismic Safety Act. The Office
of Statewide Health Planning and
Development (OSHPD) regulates hospital
construction and renovation. By 2013, all
hospital buildings built before 1973 must
be replaced or retrofitted so they can
reliably survive earthquakes without
collapsing or posing threats of significant
loss of life. By 2030, all existing hospitals
(including those built after 1973) must be
seismically evaluated and retrofitted, if
needed, so they are reasonably capable
of providing services to the public after
disasters.

There is one acute care hospital in
Berkeley, Alta Bates, owned and operated
by the Sutter Health Corporation. The
corporation is planning to close by 2030.

Unreinforced Masonry Building Law.

The State required all jurisdictions to
identify unreinforced masonry (URM)
buildings, to notify owners regarding the
expected performance of these buildings,
and to adopt a plan to deal with the threat.

Berkeley identified 700 URMs and
designated a mandatory retrofit ordinance.

Of the original list, roughly 99% have been
seismically retrofitted, demolished or
demonstrated to have adequate
reinforcement.

Emergency Response Plans. In the
wake of the 1991 Tunnel Fire, the State
requires that all jurisdictions practice the
Standardized Emergency Management
The City complies with all State
requirements.

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System (SEMS), a uniform approach to
disaster response based on the fire
service’s Incident Command System
(ICS).

Field Act. Originally passed in 1933, the
Field Act regulates the design,
construction and renovation of public
school buildings, and the inspection of
existing school buildings. Many
subsequently adopted State laws,
amendments to the Field Act, and
supplementary laws, call for additional
safety measures for all public K - 12
schools in the state. California has the
most stringent safety codes for school
buildings in the U.S.

All public schools have been upgraded to
the standards of the Field Act and its
amendments.

AB1409. Requires that the Safety
Element to be reviewed and updated as
necessary to identify evacuation
locations.

The City of Berkeley is completing this
analysis and will include results in the new
edition of the General Plan’s Disaster
Preparedness & Safety Element.

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SB99. Requires that the Safety Element
shall be reviewed and updated to identify
residential developments in any hazard
area identified in the Safety Element that
do not have at least two evacuation
routes.

The City of Berkeley is completing this
analysis and will include results in the new
edition of the General Plan’s Disaster
Preparedness & Safety Element.

AB747. Requires that the Safety Element
shall identify evacuation routes and their
capacity, safety, and viability under a
range of emergency scenarios.

The City of Berkeley is completing this
analysis and will include results in the new
edition of the General Plan’s Disaster
Preparedness & Safety Element.

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C.2 National Flood Insurance
Program
Berkeley’s creek flooding exposure is assessed through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which makes federally -backed flood insurance available to homeowners, renters, and business owners in participating communities. Participants in the NFIP must regulate development in floodplain areas in accordance with NFIP criteria.

Berkeley has participated in the NFIP since September 1, 1978 and is currently in good standi
ng with the Program. NFIP compliance is monitored by FEMA regional staff and by the California Department of Water Resources under a contract with FEMA.

As part of Berkeley’s effort to comply with the requirements of the NFIP, Berkeley has adopted various floodplain management measures. Thanks to the fact that the City has abided by and enforced federal flood insurance program requirements since the 1970s, flood insurance claims have been extremely low.

Berkeley’s Flood Zone Development Ordinance regulates development in areas identified in the Flood Insurance Study and Flood Insurance Rate Maps.

The Current Flood Insurance Rate Map are presented in this Plan’s Risk A ssessment
(Element B.10.b Location of Floods)
To file insurance claims with FEMA for flood damage, owners of parcels in this area must have FEMA flood insurance, and comply with the terms and conditions of the insurance.

Few Berkeley homeowners are known to carry flood insurance, presumably because of

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negligible flood damage in recent decades, so those losses would be borne almost entirely by building owners.

The City last updated Berkeley Municipal Code (BMC) Chapter 17.12: Flood Zone Development Ordinance in September 2009 to maintain Berkeley’s continued compliance with FEMA National Flood Insurance Program requirements. The Ordinance regulates all publicly- and privately-owned land within the areas of special flood hazard. BMC 17.12 automatically incorporates new FIRM panels. BMC 17.12 establishes the Director of the Public Works Department as the Floodplain Administrator for the City and addresses standards for construction, utilities, subdivisions, manufactured homes and recreational vehicles.

The City of Berkeley will maintain participation in the National Flood Insurance Program under the Public Works Department’s Engineering Division and the Planning and Development Department’s Land Use Planning and Building and Safety Divisions. The Supervising Civil Engineer will work with FEMA and other partners to continue to update and revise flood maps for the City, and to continue to incorporate FEMA guidelines and suggested activities into City plans and procedures for managing flood hazards. The Zoning Officer and Building Official are responsible for applying BMC requirements to private property projects.

Implementation of substantial improvement/damage provisions after an event In the City of Berkeley, implementing the substantial improvement or damage provisions of the floodplain management regulations involves a structured process aimed at ensuring that properties affected by substantial improvement or damage comply with

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floodplain regulations.

In the City of Berkeley, the Director of Public Works or their designee is the Floodplain Administrator (FPA), and they coordinate with the Zoning Officer, Building Official, and City Engineer. After an event such as flooding or any other incident causing substantial improvement or damage to properties in flood- prone areas, the Building and Safety Division of the Planning Department assesses the extent of the damage and proposed improvement. This includes checking if the improvements meet the required elevation standards, use of flood-resistant materials, and other relevant criteria.

Applicants are required to provide the following:

1. Plans in duplicate, drawn to scale.

2. Certification from a registered civil engineer or architect that the nonresidential flood proofed building meets the floodproofing criteria.

3. For a crawl -space foundation, location and total new area of foundation openings as required and detailed in FEMA Technical Bulletins 1-93 and 7-

93. 4. All appropriate certifications.

The FPA reviews all permits for development that fall within the special flood hazard area (SFHA) and qualify as new construction or substantial improvement to determine whether:

1. The application is complete;

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2. The requirements have been satisfied, including determination of substantial improvement and substantial damage of existing structures;

3. All other required state and federal permits have been obtained;

4. The site is reasonably safe from flooding;

5. The proposed development does not adversely affect the carrying capacity of areas where base flood elevations have been determined but a floodway has not been designated. This means that the cumulative effect of the proposed development when combined with all other existing and anticipated development will not increase the water surface elevation of the base flood more than one foot at any point within the City of Berkeley; and

6. All letters of map revision (LOMRs) for flood control projects have been approved prior to the issuance of building permits. Building permits must not be issued based on conditional letters of map revision (CLOMRs). Approved CLOMRs allow construction of the proposed flood control project and land preparation as specified in the "start of construction" definition.

The FPA uses FEMA Publication 213, “Answers to Questions About Substantially Damaged Buildings," to develop detailed procedures for identifying and administering requirements for substantial improvement and substantial damage, to include defining "market value." When base flood elevation data has not been provided in accordance with regulations, the Floodplain Administrator shall obtain, review, and reasonably utilize any base flood elevation and floodway data available from a federal or state agency, or