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January 23, 2023
owner of each business subject to assessment in the district, as appropriate. The city shall conduct the public hearing not less than 30 days after mailing the notice to the property or business owners. The public hearing shall be held not more than 60 days after the adoption of the resolution of intention. 36671. Refund of remaining revenues upon disestablishment or expiration without renewal of district; Calculation of refund; Use of outstanding revenue collected after disestablishment of district (a) Upon the disestablishment or expiration without renewal of a district, any remaining revenues, after all outstanding debts are paid, derived from the levy of assessments, or derived from the sale of assets acquired with the revenues, or from bond reserve or construction funds, shall be refunded to the owners of the property or businesses then located and operating within the district in which assessments were levied by applying the same method and basis that was used to calculate the assessments levied in the fiscal year in which the district is disestablished or expires. All outstanding assessment revenue collected after disestablishment shall be spent on improvements and activities specified in the management district plan. (b) If the disestablishment occurs before an assessment is levied for the fiscal year, the method and basis that was used to calculate the assessments levied in the immediate prior fiscal year shall be used to calculate the amount of any refund.
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APPENDIX 2 – ASSESSED BUSINESSES
HOTEL NAME SITE ADDRESS CITY ST ZIP
AC HOTEL SAN FRANCISCO
AIRPORT/OYSTER POINT WATERFRONT 1333 Veterans Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
AIRPORT INN 751 Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
ALL SEASONS LODGE 800 El Camino Real
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
ALOFT SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 401 E. Millbrae Ave Millbrae CA 94030 AMERICANA INN MOTEL 760 El Camino Real
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
AMERICAS BEST VALUE INN - PACIFICA 2160 Francisco Blvd Pacifica CA 94044 ANCHOR INN PACIFICA 500 San Pedro Ave Pacifica CA 94044
ARISTOCRAT HOTEL, BW SIGNATURE
COLLECTION 1410 Cabrillo Hwy S Half Moon Bay CA 94019
ATHERTON INN 1201 W Selby Lane Redwood City CA 94061
ATHERTON PARK INN & SUITES 2834 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94061 BAY LANDING HOTEL 1550 Bayshore Hwy Burlingame CA 94010 BAYHILL INN 950 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066
BEACH HOUSE HOTEL 4100 Cabrillo Hwy N Half Moon Bay CA 94019 BELMONT PALMS 700 El Camino Real Belmont CA 94002
BEST WESTERN COYOTE POINT 480 N Bayshore Blvd San Mateo CA 94401 BEST WESTERN INN 316 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94062
BEST WESTERN PLUS EXECUTIVE
SUITES 25 5th Ave Redwood City CA 94063
BEST WESTERN PLUS GROSVENOR
HOTEL 380 S Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
BUDGET INN 2526 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94061
CANYON RANCH WELLNESS RETREAT 16350 Skyline Blvd Woodside CA 94062 CAPRI MOTEL 2380 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94063
THE CATRINA HOTEL 2110 S El Camino Real San Mateo CA 94403 COMFORT INN & SUITES - SAN BRUNO 611 San Bruno Ave E San Bruno CA 94066 COMFORT INN & SUITES SFO NORTH 121 E. Grand Ave
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
COSTANOA LODGE+CAMP+RESORT 2001 Rossi Rd Pescadero CA 94060 COUNTRY INN & SUITES BY RADISSON 251 El Camino Real San Carlos CA 94070 COURTYARD REDWOOD CITY 600 Bair Island Rd Redwood City CA 94063 COURTYARD SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT 1050 Bayhill Dr San Bruno CA 94066 COURTYARD SAN MATEO FOSTER CITY 550 Shell Blvd Foster City CA 94404
CROWNE PLAZA FOSTER CITY-SAN
MATEO 1221 Chess Dr Foster City CA 94404
CROWNE PLAZA S.F. AIRPORT 1177 Airport Blvd Burlingame CA 94010 CYPRESS INN ON MIRAMAR BEACH 407 Mirada Rd Half Moon Bay CA 94019 DAYS INN - REDWOOD CITY 2650 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94061 DAYS INN S.F. AIRPORT-OYSTER POINT -
SSF 1113 Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
DELUXE INN - REDWOOD CITY 1402 Stafford St Redwood City CA 94062 370
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DELUXE INN - SSF 920 El Camino Real
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
DOUBLETREE BY HILTON S.F. AIRPORT 835 Airport Blvd Burlingame CA 94010 DOUBLETREE BY HILTON S.F. AIRPORT
NORTH
5000 Sierra Point
Parkway Brisbane CA 94005
DOUBLETREE BY HILTON SF / SOUTH
AIRPORT BLVD 275 S Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
THE DYLAN HOTEL AT SFO 110 S El Camino Real Millbrae CA 94030 EMBASSY SUITES S.F. AIRPORT SOUTH
SAN FRANCISCO 250 Gateway Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
EMBASSY SUITES S.F. AIRPORT -
WATERFRONT 150 Anza Blvd Burlingame CA 94010
EXTENDED STAY AMERICA - BELMONT 120 Sem Lane Belmont CA 94002
EXTENDED STAY AMERICA - SAN
CARLOS 3 Circle Star Way San Carlos CA 94070
EXTENDED STAY AMERICA - SAN
MATEO 1830 Gateway Dr San Mateo CA 94404
FAIRFIELD INN & SUITES SAN
FRANCISCO PACIFICA 500 Old County Rd Pacifica CA 94044
FAIRFIELD INN & SUITES SAN
FRANCISCO SAN CARLOS 555 Skyway Rd San Carlos CA 94070
FAIRFIELD INN & SUITES SFO OYSTER
POINT AREA 127 W. Harris Avenue
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
FOUR POINTS BY SHERATON HOTEL &
SUITES 264 S Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
FOUR SEASONS HOTEL SILICON VALLEY 2050 University Ave East Palo Alto CA 94303 GARDEN MOTEL 1690 Broadway Redwood City CA 94063
GATEWAY INN & SUITES 516 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066 GOOD LIVING INN 1562 El Camino Real San Carlos CA 94070 GOOD NITE INN 485 Veterans Blvd Redwood City CA 94063
GRAND BAY SAN FRANCISCO 223 Twin Dolphin Dr Redwood City CA 94065 GRAND HYATT AT SFO 55 S. McDonnell Road San Francisco CA 94128 HALF MOON BAY INN 401 Main St Half Moon Bay CA 94019
HALF MOON BAY LODGE 2400 Cabrillo Hwy S Half Moon Bay CA 94019
HAMPTON INN & SUITES SFO SOUTH -
BURLINGAME 1755 Bayshore Hwy Burlingame CA 94010
HAMPTON INN & SUITES - SAN MATEO 2940 S. Norfolk St. San Mateo CA 94403 HAMPTON INN SFO NORTH - SSF 300 Gateway Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
HARBOR VIEW INN 51 Ave Alhambra El Granada CA 94018
HILTON GARDEN INN SAN MATEO 2000 Bridgepoint Circle San Mateo CA 94404
HILTON GARDEN INN SFO -
BURLINGAME 765 Airport Blvd Burlingame CA 94010
HILTON GARDEN INN - SFO NORTH -
SSF 670 Gateway Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
HILTON S.F. AIRPORT BAYFRONT 600 Airport Blvd Burlingame CA 94010
HOLIDAY INN & SUITES SAN MATEO-SF
SFO 330 N Bayshore Blvd San Mateo CA 94401
HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS & SUITES
BELMONT 1650 El Camino Real Belmont CA 94002
HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS REDWOOD CITY
CENTRAL 1836 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94063
HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS SFO NORTH -
SSF 373 S Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
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HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS SFO SOUTH -
BURLINGAME 1250 Bayshore Hwy Burlingame CA 94010
HOME2 SUITES BY HILTON SFO NORTH 550 Gateway Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
HOMEWOOD SUITES BY HILTON
BELMONT 1201 Shoreway Road Belmont CA 94002
HOMEWOOD SUITES BY HILTON SFO
AIRPORT NORTH 2000 Shoreline Court Brisbane CA 94005
HOTEL 1550 1550 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066
HOTEL ALUXOR 500 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066
HOTEL AURA SFO 190 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066
HOTEL BELMONT 560 El Camino Real Belmont CA 94002
HOTEL FOCUS SFO 111 Mitchell Ave
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
HOTEL NOVA SFO BY FAIRBRIDGE 410 S Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
HOTEL V 222 S Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
HYATT HOUSE BELMONT/REDWOOD
SHORES 400 Concourse Dr Belmont CA 94002
HYATT PLACE SAN CARLOS 26 El Camino Real San Carlos CA 94070
HYATT REGENCY SAN FRANCISCO
AIRPORT 1333 Bayshore Hwy Burlingame CA 94010
INN @ BAYSHORE 140 N Bayshore Blvd San Mateo CA 94401
INN AT MAVERICKS 346 Princeton Ave El Granada CA 94018
INN AT ROCKAWAY
200 Rockaway Beach
Ave Pacifica CA 94044
INN BY THE SFO 701 Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
LA QUINTA INN & SUITES S.F. AIRPORT
WEST 1390 El Camino Real Millbrae CA 94030
LA QUINTA INN S.F. AIRPORT NORTH 20 Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
LARKSPUR LANDING HOTEL SSF 690 Gateway Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
LIA HOTEL 950 El Camino Real San Carlos CA 94070
LIGHTHOUSE HOTEL
105 Rockaway Beach
Ave Pacifica CA 94044
MARRIOTT FAIRFIELD INN & SUITES
SFO 250 El Camino Real Millbrae CA 94030
MILL ROSE INN 615 Mill St Half Moon Bay CA 94019
MILLWOOD INN & SUITES 1375 El Camino Real Millbrae CA 94030 THE MIRAMAR INN & SUITES 3020 Cabrillo Hwy N Half Moon Bay CA 94019 MOTEL 6 - BELMONT 1101 Shoreway Rd Belmont CA 94002
NANTUCKET WHALE INN 779 Main St Half Moon Bay CA 94019
NICHE HOTEL 868 Main St Redwood City CA 94063
OCEAN VIEW INN 8425 Cabrillo Hwy Montara CA 94037
THE OCEANFRONT HOTEL 211 Mirada Rd Half Moon Bay CA 94019 OCEANO HOTEL & SPA 280 Capistrano Rd Half Moon Bay CA 94019 PACIFICA BEACH HOTEL 525 Crespi Dr Pacifica CA 94044
PARK POINTE HOTEL 245 S. Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
PESCADERO CREEK INN 393 Stage Rd Pescadero CA 94060
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QUALITY INN HALF MOON BAY 2930 Cabrillo Hwy N Half Moon Bay CA 94019 RAMADA LIMITED SUITES 721 Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
REDWOOD CREEK INN 1090 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94063 REDWOOD MOTOR COURT 3706 Rolison Rd Redwood City CA 94063 REGENCY INN SFO 411 San Bruno Ave E San Bruno CA 94066
RESIDENCE INN SAN FRANCISCO
AIRPORT/MILLBRAE 161 N. Rollins Road Millbrae CA 94030
RESIDENCE INN REDWOOD CITY SAN
CARLOS 800 E. San Carlos Ave San Carlos CA 94070
RESIDENCE INN SAN FRANCISCO
AIRPORT/SAN MATEO 2000 Winward Way San Mateo CA 94404
THE RITZ-CARLTON, HALF MOON BAY
One Miramontes Point
Rd Half Moon Bay CA 94019
RITZ INN 151 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066
ROYAL INN 120 Hickey Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
SAN BENITO HOUSE 356 Main St Half Moon Bay CA 94019
SAN CARLOS INN 1140 Morse Blvd San Carlos CA 94070
SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT MARRIOTT
WATERFRONT 1800 Old Bayshore Hwy Burlingame CA 94010
SAN MATEO MARRIOTT 1770 So. Amphlett Blvd San Mateo CA 94402
SEA BREEZE MOTEL
100 Rockaway Beach
Ave Pacifica CA 94044
SEAL COVE INN 221 Cypress Ave Moss Beach CA 94038
SEQUOIA INN 526 El Camino Real Redwood City CA 94063
SFO AIRPORT HOTEL, EL RANCHO INN 1100 El Camino Real Millbrae CA 94030 SILICON VALLEY INN 630 El Camino Real Belmont CA 94002
SONESTA ES SUITES SFO SAN BRUNO 1350 Huntington San Bruno CA 94066
SONESTA ES SUITES SFO OYSTER POINT
WATERFRONT 1350 Veterans Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
SONESTA SELECT SFO OYSTER POINT
WATERFRONT 1300 Veterans Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
SPRINGHILL SUITES BELMONT
REDWOOD SHORES 1401 Shoreway Rd Belmont CA 94002
SUPER 8 S.F. AIRPORT - SAN BRUNO 421 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066
TOWNEPLACE SUITES SAN MATEO
FOSTER CITY 1299 Chess Drive Foster City CA 94404
TRAVELERS INN 100 Hickey Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
TRAVELODGE SFO NORTH 326 S Airport Blvd
So. San
Francisco CA 94080
VAGABOND INN EXECUTIVE S.F.
AIRPORT BAYFRONT 1640 Old Bayshore Hwy Burlingame CA 94010
VILLA MONTES HOTEL, ASCEND HOTEL
COLLECTION 620 El Camino Real San Bruno CA 94066
THE WESTIN S.F. AIRPORT 1 Old Bayshore Hwy Millbrae CA 94030 ZABALLA HOUSE BED & BREAKFAST 324 Main St Half Moon Bay CA 94019 Hotel Nia
200 Independence
Drive Menlo Park CA 94025
Park James 1400 El Camino Real Menlo Park CA 94025
Rosewood Sand Hill 2825 Sand Hill Road Menlo Park CA 94025 373
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Stanford Park Hotel 100 El Camino Real Menlo Park CA 94025 Residence Inn
555 Glenwood
Avenue Menlo Park CA 94025
Best Western Plus Riviera 15 El Camino Real Menlo Park CA 94025 Hotel Lucent 727 El Camino Real Menlo Park CA 94025
Menlo Park Inn 1315 El Camino Real Menlo Park CA 94025
Red Cottage Inn 1704 El Camino Real Menlo Park CA 94025 374
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APPENDIX 3 – BENEFITS BY BUSINESS CATEGORY
Program Service
Tier 1
(1.5%)
Tier 2
(0.75%)
General Listing on www.thesanfranciscopeninsula.com with link to hotel booking page X X General Inclusion in Sales, Marketing and Promotional Opportunities X X
General Inclusion in SFP's Consumer Brochures
X X
General Access to SFP's research reports and insights
X X
General Represented by SFP at industry conferences and events X X
General
Access to California Hotel Lodging Association's industry advocacy efforts and training materials
X X
Consumer Opportunity to participate in Consumer Marketing Campaigns X X
Consumer Public Relations participation opportunities
X X
Consumer Familiarization Tour (Press and Influencer) Opportunities X X
Consumer Inclusion Opportunity in Social Media Efforts
X X
Consumer Inclusion Opportunity in Destination Video and Photo Shoots X X
Consumer New project and special event opportunities
X X
Travel Trade Trade Show Opportunities
X X
Travel Trade Sales Mission Opportunities
X X
Travel Trade Lead Opportunities
X X
Travel Trade Familiarization Tour Leads (Press and Travel Trade) Opportunities X X
Meetings Lead Distribution
X
Meetings Site Inspections
X
Meetings Convention Services Support
X
Meetings Opportunity to participate in Sales Missions
X
Meetings Opportunity to participate in Client Events
X
Meetings Industry tradeshow participation
X
Meetings Participation in local industry chapter meetings and events X
Meetings Familiarization Tours
X
Meetings Marketing Campaigns
X
Meetings Inclusion in Meetings Market Brochures
X
Meetings Opportunity for Sponsorship of Group Events
X
Meetings
Custom Event Landing Page for Groups: Things To Do Nearby With Your Selected Venue (Itinerary)
X
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Meetings Distribution of hot rates and dates to planners X
Meetings Co-op advertising opportunities in key meeting publications X
Meetings Social media mentions/posts promoting groups space X
Meetings Inclusion on Meeting Planner section of website X
Meetings Opportunity to be highlighted in meeting planner newsletter X
Meetings Access to SF Travel group leads via our alliance with SFT X
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APPENDIX 4 – SMG CONSULTING ANALYSIS
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SF Peninsula
Tourism Business Improvement District Pro Forma Review
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Overview
In 2001, the Organization established a Tourism Business Improvement District (TBID) under the Parking and Business Improvement Area Law of 1989 (’89 Law) and now wishes to convert to a Tourism Marketing District (TMD) under the Property and Business Improvement District Law of 1994 (’94 Law).
The organization is moving forward with a Tourism Business Improvement District (TBID) transition that will increase its funding above $6 million annually to be available for tourism promotion efforts. The TBID contribution is a significant budget increase for the organization. In developing the proposal for the TBID renewal and the subsequent approval of the lodging industry, the organization staff has prepared a TMD Benefits Proforma to estimate the potential return on investment from the new TBID funds.
This staff assessment includes the proposed allocation and use of new funds for different tourism promotion efforts (sales, advertising, public relations, social media, etc.) and the projected return on investment for those funds.
Proforma Review
The TMD Benefits Proforma review includes a review of the staff proforma to check the assumptions and estimates and make suggestions and recommendations.
Scope of Work
The following is a review of the proforma developed for the TBID renewal. The analysis was done using the information supplied by The San Francisco Peninsula CVB. Project elements include the following:
I. DEVELOP SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH TRENDLINE AND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE FOR LODGING REVENUE.
DEVELOP MULTI-YEAR FORECAST.
Ø DETERMINE THE PROJECTABLE RATE OF GROWTH.
•REVIEW STAFF DRAFT PROFORMA, INCLUDING ASSUMPTIONS AND FINAL ESTIMATES.
I. COMPARE PROFORMA ESTIMATES WITH TRENDLINE AND ASSESS WITH POTENTIALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS (HIGH, MEDIUM, AND LOW ESTIMATES).
Limiting Conditions
The following analysis and estimates are based on the best information and time available. The results and opinions provided are a guide for consideration, and we do not claim as to the accuracy of the final results.
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Model Development
We developed an SF Peninsula Tourism Economic Model to develop lodging revenue and room night projections with the addition of new properties and the potential of Menlo Park Inclusion.
The model was developed utilizing the past ten years of monthly lodging data from Smith Travel Research. The model measures a variety of economic activities, including the following:
II. LODGING REVENUE PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2027
III. ROOM NIGHT PROJECTION THROUGH 2027
IV. TBID REVENUE WITHOUT MENLO PARK
V. TBID REVENUE WITH MENLO PARK
VI. TBIB REVENUE WITH NEW PROPERTIES
VII. TBID REVENUE WITHOUT NEW PROPERTIES.
The SF Peninsula Tourism Economic Model can be adjusted to test or consider different scenarios.
Model Methodology
The future growth of ADR and room nights is using a Bayesian Structural Times Series (BSTS) model, a technique for fitting historical data and forecasting future trends (Scott and Varian, Predicting the Present with Bayesian Structural Time Series 2013). BSTS was chosen for its ability to forecast future trends, including seasonal variation, using robust time series data. In this case, data is available in monthly intervals from July 2012. This model was fit by specifying a semi-local linear trend. Confidence intervals bound a mean forecast to quantify the degree of uncertainty in the future (Scott, Fitting Bayesian structural time series with the bsts R package 2017).
Rather than having the pandemic disruption influence the forecasts, only data from July 2012 through December 2019 was taken as input. Revenue is simply forecast as the product of ADR and room nights.
Given the fact that the STR reports track all cities in San Mateo County, the revenue forecast is reduced in proportion to the number of room nights in the TMD (15,699/17,190) or 91.3 percent.
TMD fee revenue is also forecast in proportion to available rooms, with 42 percent A-level property rooms paying 1.5 percent of gross room revenue. The balance is paid by B-level property rooms at 0.75 percent.
Construction of three new B-level properties is underway and will bring 451 rooms online. These rooms are assumed to be available from January 2023. There are 533 A-level property rooms and 338 B-level property rooms in Menlo Park. Potential gross room and TMD fee revenue is forecast on the basis of room count proportionality.
Model Assumptions
The model forecasts mean values of ADR and room nights along with 2.5 percent confidence intervals. This report is based on mean values. By constructing the model in this manner, we are 380
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assuming that the conditions supporting ADR and room night growth prior to the pandemic will continue from 2023 forward.
Sources of variation include the impact of macroeconomic conditions, actual timing of new construction (planned and unplanned), promotions and policies such as airline crew waivers.
Model Limitations
The baseline SF Peninsula Tourism Economic Model provides a static look based on a given set of assumptions. Forecasts of future events are inherently uncertain as the recent pandemic reminded us. As noted above, the model can be adjusted to estimate specific scenarios in detail in which case the relative differences generally provide the most value.
Findings
Table 1 below summarizes Room Nights, Revenue, and Average Daily Rate (ADR) projections.
Table 1: Room Night, Revenue, and Average Daily Rate Projections 2021-2027 A. THE MODEL INCLUDES GROWTH RATE PROJECTIONS FOR EACH OF THOSE CATEGORIES. NOTE THE SIGNIFICANT REVENUE GROWTH PROJECTION IN 2022 AND 2023, AFTER WHICH THE GROWTH SLOWS DOWN INTO A MORE CONSISTENT PATTERN AFTER 2023. (SEE TABLE 1 ABOVE) B. THE TMD BENEFITS PROFORMA DEVELOPED BY STAFF HAS LODGING RATES BETWEEN $200 AND $293,
WHICH IS WITHIN ESTIMATES OR THE PROJECTED AVERAGE DAILY RATE OF THE SF PENINSULA TOURISM ECONOMIC MODEL. (SEE TABLE 2)
A. REGARDING TBID REVENUE PROJECTION, THE TMD BENEFITS PROFORMA ANTICIPATES TBID REVENUE OF APPROXIMATELY $6M. BASED ON THE SF PENINSULA TOURISM ECONOMIC MODEL'S ASSUMPTIONS, TBID COLLECTIONS COULD BE HIGHER STARTING IN 2022 (APPROXIMATELY $8M). (SEE TABLE 2)
B. THE MODEL CONSIDERS THE NEW CONSTRUCTION OF HOTELS (451 UNITS) WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL TBID REVENUE GENERATION BY APPROXIMATELY $207,000. (SEE TABLE 2) C. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODEL CONSIDERS THE POTENTIAL ADDITION OF MENLO PARK HOTELS BEING A PART OF THE TBID. THE ADDITION OF MENLO PARK HOTELS WOULD INCREASE TBID CONTRIBUTIONS BY APPROXIMATELY $638,000 STARTING IN 2023. (SEE TABLE 2) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Room nights 3,201,672 3,273,894 3,356,784 3,470,192 3,592,148 3,720,575 3,824,263 RN annual growth 2.3% 2.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 2.8%
Revenue (thousands) $430,563 $784,357 $1,053,955 $1,140,669 $1,229,371 $1,335,188 $1,444,536 Rev annual growth 82.2% 34.4% 8.2% 7.8% 8.6% 8.2%
ADR $134 $240 $314 $329 $342 $359 $378
ADR annual growth 78.2% 31.1% 4.7% 4.1% 4.9% 5.3%
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Table 2: TMD Room Revenue and Fee Projections
Inventory Notes:
Changes in Hotel Inventory
318 rooms lost to Project Home Key (housing the un-housed) during 2020/2021 Possibly December 15, 2022 or early 2023
Red Roof Inn, Burlingame
213 Rooms
Possibly in 2023
El Rancho Inn, Millbrae
219 Rooms
2023 (Buyer is getting financing together, no set month for demolishing.) Holiday Inn Express, Burlingame
148 Rooms
Possibly 2023 (Entitlements approved Sept 2022. No word when developer will start work.) Comfort Inn & Suites, South San Francisco
166 Rooms
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
A rooms 6607 Base Year
Total available 15699 TBID Projection
B rooms 9092
A Revenue $101,204,557 $330,100,605 $405,089,050 $438,417,832 $472,510,240 $513,181,465 $555,203,395
1.50% $2,718,068 $4,951,509 $6,076,336 $6,576,267 $7,087,654 $7,697,722 $8,328,141 B Revenue $249,358,533 $454,256,803 $557,449,620 $603,313,899 $650,229,026 $706,197,349 $764,032,666
0.75%
Total TBID/TMD $4,588,257 $8,358,435 $10,257,208 $11,101,122 $11,964,371 $12,994,202 $14,058,366 New Construction
New rooms 2023 (B) 451 Total w/new hotels $10,464,596 $11,325,573 $12,206,276 $13,256,929 $14,342,629 % increase in B 5.0%
Menlo Park
New rooms 2023 (A) 533
% increase in A 8.1%
New rooms 2023 (B) 338
% increase in B 3.5%
Total w/Menlo $10,895,479 $11,791,907 $12,708,873 $13,802,787 $14,933,191 382
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Appendix
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Appendix 1: San Mateo County Room Revenue
Source: STR Reports and Consulting Team.
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Annual San Mateo County Room Revenue
Historic STR Report Values through October 2022 and Forecast to 2027
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Appendix 2: San Mateo County ADR
Source: STR Reports and Consulting Team.
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Apr-16
Jan-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Apr-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
Jul-21
Apr-22
Jan-23
Oct-23
Jul-24
Apr-25
Jan-26
Oct-26
Jul-27
Apr-28
Jan-29
Oct-29
Jul-30
Apr-31
Jan-32
Oct-32
Jul-33
Apr-34
Monthly San Mateo County ADR Forecast to 2034
Historical 97.5% quantile Forecast mean 2.5% quantile
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Appendix 3: San Mateo County Room Nights
Source: STR Reports and Consulting Team.
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jul-12
Apr-13
Jan-14
Oct-14
Jul-15
Apr-16
Jan-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Apr-19
Jan-20
Oct-20
Jul-21
Apr-22
Jan-23
Oct-23
Jul-24
Apr-25
Jan-26
Oct-26
Jul-27
Apr-28
Jan-29
Oct-29
Jul-30
Apr-31
Jan-32
Oct-32
Jul-33
Apr-34
Monthly San Mateo County Room Night Forecast to 2034
Historical 97.5% quantile Forecast mean 2.5% quantile
386
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File Attachments for Item:
R. Consider Authorizing the City Manager to Sign Agreements for Funding and for Purchase and Installation of Fiber Optic Facilities
(If authorized, the funding agreement with the City/County Association of Governments of San Mateo County (C/CAG) will provide that C/CAG pays for 100% of the cost of installation, including any amendments found necessary during construction. The current cost estimate for the install of C/CAG’s and Brisbane’s “filled” Fiber Optic conduit is $831,924) 387
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CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
Authorize City Manager to Sign Agreements for Fiber Optic Facilities Page 1 of 2 Meeting Date: June 29, 2023
From: Director of Public Works/City Engineer
Subject: Authorize City Manager to Sign Agreements for Funding and for Purchase and Installation of Fiber Optic Facilities
Community Goal/Result - Safe Community
Purpose
The purpose of the recommended action is to grant the City Manager authority to execute a funding agreement for C/CAG to pay for fiber optic facilities, and a purchase and installation agreement for fiber optic facilities.
Recommendation
Authorize the City Manager to sign two agreements on the city’s behalf:
1. A funding agreement between the City/County Association of Governments of San Mateo County and the City of Brisbane for conduit purchase and fiber installation for the smart corridor extension project.
2. A bill of sale agreement between Intermountain Infrastructure Group and the City of Brisbane for purchase and installation of fiber optic conduits and dark fiber.
A condition precedent to the City Manager executing these agreements is the City Attorney’s review and approval of same.
Background
The City/County Association of Governments of San Mateo County has been leading the effort on a County Smart Corridor project that is designed to improve the mobility of local arterial streets by installing Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) equipment, such as an interconnected traffic signal system, close circuit television (CCTV) cameras, dynamic message signs, and vehicle detection system, on predefined designated local streets and state routes.
The ITS infrastructure will provide local cities and Caltrans with day-to-day traffic management capabilities in addressing recurring and non-recurring traffic congestion.
A key aspect of this project is the installation of fiber optic (FO) lines to provide the telecommunication conduit backbone for the described ITS components. The Smart Corridor project is mostly complete in south and central San Mateo County, and the project that started in South San Francisco in 2021 is also complete.
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Authorize City Manager to Sign Agreements for Fiber Optic Facilities Page 2 of 2 To complete the northern portion of San Mateo County ITS, C/CAG engaged an engineering firm to design the fiber optic conduit and the ITS components for Daly City, Colma, and Brisbane.
Somewhat in parallel with C/CAG’s efforts on the Smart Corridor, Intermountain Infrastructure Group (IIG) has been processing an encroachment permit application with Brisbane to run a new bank of fiber optic conduits in Bayshore Boulevard from the northern city limits to the southern city limits.
C/CAG recognized the advantage in “piggybacking” off IIG’s proposed project, and IIG willingly entered into 3-party negotiations as part of an effort to minimize the number of excavations in a single street for telecommunications facilities. While Brisbane does not have a “dig once” policy in effect, the mutually agreed upon negotiations generally follow the practices recommended by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).
Assuming these negotiations, the final agreements, and construction all come to fruition, at the end of this effort C/CAG and Brisbane will each own a fiber optic conduit with “dark fiber” in the new bank of FO conduits proposed to be installed in Bayshore by IIG.
Discussion
Staff and the City Attorney have reviewed and generally approved plans, specifications and the two agreements that are the subject of this staff report. The one issue that has delayed finalizing these agreements has been the tenuous nature of the public funds from which C/CAG hoped to fund its portion of the project. In early June, C/CAG was able to convince the California Transportation Commission to approve its requested allocation.
At this point in time, staff believes that final funding approval from C/CAG and final approval of IIG’s plans will occur during Council’s summer recess. IIG’s permit from the City is anticipated to be issued in the next 30-60 days; if Brisbane and C/CAG are to have their FO conduit and dark fiber installed by IIG, these two agreements must be finalized prior to August.
Fiscal Impact
The funding agreement with C/CAG will provide that C/CAG pays for 100% of the cost of installation, including any amendments found necessary during construction. The current cost estimate for the install of C/CAG’s and Brisbane’s “filled” FO conduit is $831,924.
The city’s only contribution to this project is engineering and field inspection staffing to oversee the work in our jurisdiction.
Measure of Success
A backbone FO system installed at no cost to the city in Bayshore Boulevard and ready for connection to ITS network components.
___________________________________ ___________________________________ Randy Breault, Public Works Director Clay Holstine, City Manager 389
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File Attachments for Item:
S. Consider Authorizing City Manager to sign a Storm Drain Cleaning Contract (Council will consider Authorizing the City Manager to execute a contract to clean debris flow sediment deposited in the city’s storm drain system as a result of the 2022 New Years Eve storm. The contract amount is estimated to be $1.7M. A condition precedent to the City Manager executing this contract is the City Attorney’s review and approval of same.) 390
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CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
Authorize City Manager to sign a Storm Drain Cleaning Contract Page 1 of 2 Meeting Date: June 29, 2023
From: Director of Public Works/City Engineer
Subject: Authorize City Manager to sign a Storm Drain Cleaning Contract Community Goal/Result - Safe Community
Purpose
The purpose of the recommended action is to establish procurement authority so the City may publish and receive bids, and then enter into a contract for, storm drain cleaning during the Council’s summer recess.
Recommendation
Authorize the City Manager to execute a contract to clean debris flow sediment deposited in the city’s storm drain system as a result of the 2022 New Years Eve storm. The contract amount is estimated to be $1.7M. A condition precedent to the City Manager executing this contract is the City Attorney’s review and approval of same.
Background
A significant quantity of debris was found in the City’s storm drain system after video inspection post the New Years Eve debris flows from Owl, Buckeye and Firth Canyons. This debris needs to be removed so that the City’s storm drain system operates efficiently.
City staff has filed claims with three entities to provide funding for this clean-up effort:
• Caltrans, for Emergency Relief funds from the Federal Highway Administration • Federal Emergency Management Agency, for Category A emergency opening funds from the federally declared FEMA-4683-DR-CA disaster
• A claim with the County of San Mateo for the costs associated with the debris that came into Brisbane from County owned property.
At this time, none of the three entities listed above have agreed to or committed funds for the removal of the debris or other clean-up costs.
Discussion
Based on the length of time necessary to publish and award a contract and the need to complete this work before the next rainy season, staff intends to publish during the early part of the Council’s summer recess bid documents for this clean up work. Bid proposals would come in also during the time when Council is not meeting in regular session. With the project 391
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Authorize City Manager to sign a Storm Drain Cleaning Contract Page 2 of 2 cost estimated at $1.7M and the City Manager’s procurement authority restricted by BMC §3.12.020 to $200,000, under most circumstances, staff would bring the proposed construction contract to the City Council for approval. Here, however, because of the need to award the contract this summer in order to have the work completed before the rainy season, staff is recommending Council authorize the City Manager to sign a contract with the lowest responsible bidder for this work. All of the public contract bidding procedures will be followed and the City Attorney will approve the contract before it is signed Fiscal Impact
Initial funding for this work will come from the city’s reserve or other fund source. Staff does anticipate that at least one of the three identified funding sources will provide no less than 75% of the cost of this contract but notes that receipt of such funds may take a year or longer.
Measure of Success
A clean storm drain system that is restored to its full capacity so as to limit the possibility of localized flooding in winter rainstorm events.
___________________________________ ___________________________________ Randy Breault, Public Works Director Clay Holstine, City Manager 392
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