Executive Summary and
Simple Lay Description of 2020 UWMP Findings
Executive Summary ES-1
Metropolitan’s 2020 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) has been prepared in compliance with the California Water Code (CWC)1. This Executive Summary satisfies the requirement of CWC Section 10630.5 to include a simple lay description of information necessary to provide a general understanding of the plan, including a description of Metropolitan’s reliable water, as well as its needs, strategies, and potential challenges for the foreseeable future.
This plan provides an assessment of Metropolitan’s water service reliability, describes and evaluates sources of water supply, efficient uses of water, demand management measures, implementation strategy and schedule, and other relevant information and programs. In addition to the water reliability assessments, the plan includes an evaluation of frequent and severe periods of droughts, as described in the Drought Risk Assessment, and the preparation and adoption of the Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP).
Metropolitan’s 2020 UWMP was developed as part of the 2020 Integrated Water Resources Plan (IRP) planning process and provides a representation of Metropolitan’s planning elements reported under the conditions required by the Act. The IRP represents Metropolitan’s comprehensive planning process and will serve as Metropolitan’s blueprint for long -term water reliability, including key supply development and water use efficiency goals. Together, these plans serve as the reliability roadmap for the region. The planning process involved extensive coordination with Southern California’s water agencies, municipal service providers , and public planning agencies. Metropolitan’s Board of Directors provided oversight throughout the ongoing process for the development of the 2020 IRP that informed the preparation of the 2020 UWMP.
Metropolitan’s outreach efforts sought to engage the general public, businesses, environmental organizations, diverse communities, cities, counties, and other stakeholders with an interest in the future of Southern California’s water supplies. The information included in the 2020 UWMP represents the most current and available planning projections of supply capability and demand forecasts developed through a collaborative process with the member agencies.
As with Metropolitan’s previous plans, the 2020 UWMP does not explicitly discuss specific activities undertaken by its member agencies unless they relate to one of Metropolitan’s water demand or supply management programs. Presumably, each member agency will discuss these activities in its UWMP.
Factors Considered for Metropolitan’s Water Reliability Assessments for the UWMP The Act requires reporting agencies to describe their water service reliability under the conditions associated with a normal water year, single dry- year, and droughts lasting at least five consecutive water years, with projected information in five -year increments for 20 years. The factors used to evaluate Metropolitan’s supply and demand balance for the 2020 UWMP are
1 This UWMP complies with the Urban Water Management Planning Act (Act), which was added by Statute 1983, Chapter 1009, became effective on January 1, 1984, and currently includes CWC Sections 10610 through 10657; and with CWC Section 10608.36 which was added by SB X7-7 in 2009.
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presented below. Some of the considerations and resulting projections may change as Metropolitan’s planning progresses. These changes may be reflected in future updates of the UWMP. Metropolitan and its member agencies have engaged in a comprehensive regional planning process called the IRP since the 1990s. In its 2020 IRP process, Metropolitan and its member agencies are using a scenario planning approach to identify and account for the broad range of uncertainty that the region faces in its water supplies and demands. Instead of focusing on a target for future water supply needs based on a single projected outcome of supplies and demands, this approach encouraged broader thinking and discussion of possible future conditions for local and imported water supply and retail demand, and the policy implications for Metropolitan and its service area. Adaptive management during implementation will allow flexibility in how the region prepares for the supply and demand conditions as they evolve through the future. The scenario planning in the 2020 IRP started with identifying the major drivers of chang e that impact water supply and demand for the region, understanding how they interact, and then assessing the potential scale of impact in the future. Data sources and quantification methods were identified that could be used for quantitative and qualitative analysis of the drivers and their impact on water supplies and demands . The detailed analyses of future local and imported water supplies; economic growth, demographics and water demands; and changing hydrology were incorporated into the UWMP. The IR P planning effort and policy discussions continued into 2021.
Hydrologic Conditions and Reporting Period
The 2020 UWMP presents Metropolitan’s water reliability assessments from 2025 through 2045. As specified in the Act, there are three water-year types that must be included in the water service reliability assessment for the UWMP. To simulate hydrologic conditions for the required reliability assessments, Metropolitan assumed the following:
• Normal Year. The average of historic years 1922 to 2017 most closely represents the water supply conditions that Metropolitan considers available during a normal water year. • Single Dry Year. The conditions for the year 1977 represent the lowest total water supply available to Metropolitan.
• Five-Consecutive-Year Drought. The five consecutive years of 1988 to 1992 represent the driest five-consecutive year historical sequence for Metropolitan’s water supply. This five-year sequence is used to complete both Metropolitan’s water service reliability and drought risk assessments.
Metropolitan developed and evaluated estimates of future demands and supplies from local sources and from Metropolitan sources based on a record of 96 years (1922-2017) of historic hydrology. Supply and demand analyses for the single dry year and droughts lasting at least five consecutive water years were based on conditions affecting the watershed and supplies fr om the SWP, as this supply availability fluctuates the most among Metr opolitan’s sources of supply.
Using the same 96-year period of the SWP supply availability, 1977 is determined to be the single driest year and 19 88-92 is the driest 5-year historical sequence that represents the lowest water supply available for SWP supplies to Metropolitan. In addition, staff analysis of the 8 -river index, an indicator of river flow and runoff in the SWP watershed, indicated that 1977 is the single driest year and 1988-92 is the lowest 5 consecutive dry years from 1922 through 2017. The 8-river index is used by DWR and other water agencies as an estimate of the unimpaired runoff (or natural water production) of the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins, which are sources of water for the SWP.
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Demand Projections
Within Metropolitan’s service area, retail water demands can be met with local supplies or imported supplies. In the UWMP, Metropolitan’s supply reliability assessments focus on the future demands for Metropolitan’s imported and other supplies. The expected firm demand on Metropolitan is the difference between total demands, adjusted for conservation, and projected total local supplies. Thus, in order to project the regional need for water, Metropolitan starts with a projection of total demand including retail Municipal and Industrial (M&I), retail agricultural, seawater barrier, and replenishment demands, determines the adjustments from total conservation, and subtracts the total local supplies that are available to meet a portion of those demands.
Total Demands
Demographic growth is a major driver of the current and future retail M&I water demand.
Metropolitan updates its retail M&I projection periodically based on the release of official regional demographic and economic projections, and in the 2020 IRP, alternative demographic projections are being evaluated. The projections of retail M&I water demands used in the 2020 UWMP are based on demographic data and projections taken from the following reports:
• Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Connect SoCal: The 2020-2045 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Community Strategy (May 2020) • San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG ) San Diego Forward: The 2019 Federal Regional Transportation Plan (October 2019)
The SCAG and SANDAG regional growth forecasts are the core assumptions for the retail M&I demand forecasts for the UWMP assessments. These forecasts drive the estimating equations of the retail demand forecasting in Metropolitan’s Econometric Demand Model (MWD-EDM).
Both SCAG and SANDAG prepare demographic forecasts based on land use data for their respective regions through extensive processes that emphasize input from local planners and are done in coordination with local or regional land use authorities, incorporating essential information to reflect anticipated future populations and land uses. SCAG’s and SANDAG’s projections undergo extensive local review, incorporate zoning information from city and county general plans, and are supported by Environmental Impact Reports.
Retail agricultural demands consist of retail level water use for irrigating crops. Metropolitan’s member agencies estimate agricultural water use based on many factors, including farm acreage, crop types, historical water use, and land use conversion. Each member agency estimates its agricultural demands differently, depending on availability of information.
Metropolitan relies on member agencies’ estimates of agricultural demands for the 2020 UWMP.
Metropolitan also includes in its assessment of total demands the local groundwater requirements for seawater barrier and groundwater basin replenishment. Seawater barrier demands represent the amount of water needed to hold back seawater intrusion into the coastal groundwater basins. Replenishment demands represent the amount of water that member agencies plan to use to replenish the groundwater basins and augment natural replenishment from precipitation.
Metropolitan relies on member agencies’ and groundwater management agencies’ projections for these demands , as well as projections of local supplies that are also used to meet these demands.
Total Conservation
Projected regional water demand is adjusted to account for water conserved by best management practices from active, code -based, and price -effect conservation. Active ATTACHMENT 2
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conservation levels are derived by calculating water savings from all active program dev ice- based savings installed to date. Code- based conservation levels are derived by calculating water savings from devices covered by existing water conservation ordinances and plumbing codes, including the state Model Water Efficient Landscape Ordinance, with replacement and new construction rates driven by demographic growth consistent with SCAG and SANDAG land use and transportation plans used to derive retail demand. Price-effect conservation is derived by calculating water savings by retail customers attributable to the effect of changes in the real (inflation adjusted) price of water.
Total Local Supplies
Projections of local supplies are based on information gathered from Metropolitan’s annual local production surveys and communications between Metropolitan and member agency staff. The projections include groundwater and surface water production, recycled water and recovery of contaminated or degraded groundwater (funded under the Metropolitan’s Local Resources Program, as well as local agency funded programs), and seawater desalination. The local supply projections presented in demand tables for the 2020 UWMP are consistent with the local supply projections reported in member agencies’ UWMPs, with one variation being the Colorado River water SDCWA exchanges with Metropolitan for deliveries of blended Metropolitan water.
The total local supplies presented in the 2020 UWMP also include projections of Los Angeles Aqueduct deliveries from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP).
Water Use Reduction Achievement in 2020
On November 10, 2009, the state Legislature passed Senate Bill 7 as part of the Seventh Extraordinary Session, referred to as SB X7-7 or the Water Conservation Act of 2009. This law is the water conservation component to the historic Delta legislative package, and seeks to achieve a 20 percent statewide reduction in urban per capita water use in California by De cember 31, 2020. According to CWC Section 10608.36, wholesale agencies are required to include in their UWMPs an assessment of present and proposed future measures, programs, and policies that would help achieve the water use reductions required under SB X7-7. Urban wholesale water suppliers are not required to comply with the target -setting and reporting requirements of SB X7-7.
As a wholesale water agency, Metropolitan is not required to establish or report on an urban water use reduction target. However, Metropolitan’s regional conservation programs and local resource programs are designed to assist member agencies and retail water suppliers in the service area to comply with SB X7-7. Therefore, Metropolitan monitors the progress of its service area. Also, in compliance with SB X7-7, Metropolitan assesses its actions, programs, and policies to help achieve the water use reductions required by SB X7-7.
Based on an analysis of population, demand, and the methodologies for setting targets described in the legislation, Metropolitan’s baseline per capita water use is 182 GPCD, and the 2020 reduction target is 146 GPCD. From 2011 to 2014, there was a slight increase in per capita water use explained in part by continued economic recovery and drier weather as compared to previous years. With mandatory restrictions from the state and implementation of Metropolitan’s Water Supply Allocation Plan, Metropolitan’s 2015 UWMP reported an interim water use reduction achievement of 131 gallons per capita per day ( GPCD), which is a 28 percent reduction from the baseline . Over the last five years, Metropolitan continue d to provide support for retail agency water use reduction efforts through technical assistance, legislation, code and standards updates, and financial incentives where needed to increase water use efficiency. Based on best available data as of January 2021, Metropolitan estimates ATTACHMENT 2
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a 2019 per capita water use of 121 GCPD, well exceeding Metropolitan’s 2020 water use target of 146 GPCD with a 34 percent reduction from the baseline.
Supply Capabilities
The 2020 UWMP reports on Metropolitan’s water reliability and identifies projected supplies to meet the long-term demand within its service area. For the 2020 UWMP reliability assessments, Metropolitan’s supply capabilities are evaluated using the following assumptions for its imported supplies:
Colorado River Supplies
Colorado River supplies include Metropolitan’s basic Colorado River apportionment, along with supplies that result from existing and committed programs, including those from the IID -MWD Conservation Program, the implementation of the Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) and related agreements, and the exchange agreement with SDCWA . The QSA established the baseline water use for each of the agreement parties and facilitates the transfer of water from agricultural agencies to urban uses. Since the QSA, additional programs have been implemented to increase Metropolitan’s supplies. These include the PVID Land Management, Crop Rotation, and Water Supply Program , as well as the Lower Colorado River Water Supply Project. The 2007 Interim Guidelines provided for the coordinated operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, as well as the Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) program that allows Metropolitan to store water in Lake Mead. These stored supplies can be used to supply additional water to ensure that, when needed, Metropolitan can deliver up to Metropolitan’s Colorado River Aqueduct (CRA) capacity of 1.25 MAF.
In light of declining reservoir levels, the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) was signed in 2019. This agreement incentivizes storage in Lake Mead and requires certain volumes of water be stored in Lake Mead under certain Lake Mead elevation levels through 2026. Metropolitan is to store certain volumes of water in Lake Mead as DCP ICS once Lake Mead is below elevation 1,045 feet. This agreement also increases Metropolitan’s flexibility to take delivery of water stored as ICS at Lake Mead elevations below 1,075 fe et. The goal of this agreement is to keep Lake Mead above critical elevations, and overall, it increases Metropolitan’s flexibility to store water in Lake Mead in greater volumes and to take delivery of stored water to fill the CRA as needed.
Projections for Colorado River supplies for the 2020 UWMP are based on the United States Bureau of Reclamation’s (USBR) Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) modeling developed in January 2021, which is the latest available at the time of production of this plan. USBR modeling is used to estimate Metropolitan’s basic apportionment and the availability of QSA and other related programs.
State Water Project Supplies
State Water Project (SWP) supplies are estimated using the 2019 SWP Delivery Capability Report distributed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) in August 2020. The 2019 Delivery Capability Report presents the current DWR estimate of the amount of water deliveries for current (2020) conditions and conditions 20 years in the future under DWR’s set of stated assumptions. These estimates incorporate restrictions on SWP and Central Valley Project (CVP) operations in accordance with water quality objectives established by the State Water Resources Control Board, the biological opinions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service issued on October 21, 2019, and the Incidental Take Permit issued by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife on March 31, 2020. In addition, these estimates incorporate amendments to the Coordinated Operations Agreement between the Central ATTACHMENT 2
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Valley Project and the State Water Project made in 2018. Under the 2019 Delivery Capability Report, the delivery estimates for the SWP for 2019 conditions as percentage of Table A amounts are 7 percent, equivalent to 134 TAF for Metropolitan, under a single dry -year (1977) condition and 58 percent, equivalent to 1.1 MAF for Metropolitan, under the long-term average condition.
In dry, below -normal conditions, Metropolitan has increased the supplies received from the California Aqueduct by developing flexible Central Valley/SWP storage and transfer programs.
Over the years, under the pumping restrictions of the SWP, Metropolitan has collaborat ed with the other contractors to develop numerous voluntary Central Valley/SWP storage and tran sfer programs. The goal of these storage/transfer programs is to develop additional dry-year supplies that can be conveyed through the California Aqueduct during dry hydrologic conditions and regulatory restrictions.
Storage
A key component of Metropolitan’s water supply capability is th e amount of water in Metropolitan’s storage facilities. Storage is a major component of Metropolitan’s dry -year and emergency resource management strategy. Metropolitan’s likelihood of having adequate supply capability to meet projected demands, without implementing the Water Supply Allocation Plan (WSAP), depends on its storage resources. Metropolitan’s WSCP also underscores the importance of storage as it is identified as one of potential shortage response action s at various water shortage levels.
In developing the supply capabilities for the 2020 UWMP , Metropolitan assumed the current (2020) storage levels at the start of simulation and used the median storage level s going into each of the five-year increments based on the balances of supplies and demands. Under the median storage condition, there is an estimated 50 percent probability that storage levels would be higher than the assumption used, and a 50 percent probability that storage levels would be lower than the assumption used. All storage capability figures shown in the 2020 UWMP reflect actual storage program conveyance constraints. It is important to note that under some conditions, Metropolitan may choose to implement the WSAP in order to preserve storage reserves for a future year, instead of using the full supply capability. This can result in impacts at the retail level even under conditions where there may be adequate supply capabilities to meet demands.
Findings of the 2020 Urban Water Management Plan
The 2020 UWMP provides an assessment and summary of Metropolitan’s water service reliability outlook through 2045 under the assumptions and cited sources of information described above.
As a reporting document, the UWMP will be updated every five years to reflect changes in water demand and supply projections.
The 2020 UWMP satisfies all the content and process requirements mandated by the Act , including the required collaboration for its planning initiatives and report preparation. It should be noted that Metropolitan’s primary planning venue is its IRP and that the scenario planning approach within its 2020 IRP is intended to extend Metropolitan’s planning beyond single scenario outcomes like that shown within this UWMP. The key findings of Metropolitan’s 2020 UWMP are as follows:
Water Service Reliability and Projected Water Supplies
• Metropolitan has completed its water service reliability assessment, under the stated UWMP assumptions and conditions required by the Act, and determined that it has supply capabilities sufficient to meet expected demands from 2025 through 2045 under a single dry- ATTACHMENT 2
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year condition and a period of drought lasting five consecutive water years, as presented in Figure ES-1, as well as in a normal water year hydrologic condition. • Metropolitan has evaluated its water shortage risk, under the stated UWMP assumptions and conditions required by the Act, and determined that it has supply capabilities sufficient for a drought period that lasts five consecutive water years based on the driest five-year historic sequence for Metropolitan’s water supply. This Drought Risk Assessment was c ompleted starting from the year following when the assessment is conducted (2021 through 2025) and is presented in Figure ES-2.
• Metropolitan has plans for supply implementation and continued development of a diversified resource portfolio including programs in the Colorado River, SWP, Central Valley storage and transfers programs, local resource projects, and in- region storage that enables the region to meet its water supply needs.
• Metropolitan has developed comprehensive plans for stages of actions it would undertake to address frequent and severe periods of droughts; s ix standard water shortage levels corresponding to progressive ranges of up to 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 percent shortages and greater than 50 percent shortage; and a catastrophic interruption in water supplies through its Water Shortage Contingency Plan, Water Surplus and Drought Management Plan (WSDM Plan)2, and Water Supply Allocation Plan (WSAP)3.
• Metropolitan continues to invest in measures that will help improve the region’s water use efficiency over time.
• Metropolitan continues to plan for emergency and catastrophic scenarios , recently revising an Emergency Storage Objective to manage against potential interruption in water supplies resulting from catastrophic occurrences within the Southern California region, including seismic events along the San Andreas fault, and Seismic Risk Assessment and Mitigation Plan to assess the vulnerability of Metropolitan’s water system and mitigate those vulnerabilities .
In addition, Metropolitan is working with the State on the Delta Risk Management Strategy to reduce the impacts of a seismic event in the Delta that would cause levee failure and disruption of SWP deliveries.
• Metropolitan has and will continue to regard w ater quality with paramount importance to water supply reliability. Metropolitan owns an d operates five water treatment plants, three of which are among the 10 largest in the world. Metropolitan is a national leader in providing safe drinking water that meets increasingly stringent standards, testing for over 400 constituents and performing nearly 200,000 water quality tests annually on samples gathered throughout its distribution system. Metropolitan’s Water Quality Laboratory analyzes these samples to ensure that Metropolitan’s delivered water meets or surpasses all state and federal drinking water standards. Because treatment to remove specific contaminants can be more costly than measures to protect water at the source, Metropolitan also actively supports improved watershed protection programs for its source waters in the Colorado River and State Water Project.
2 The WSDM plan is a coordinated plan used to direct Metropolitan’s resource operations to help attain the region’s reliability goal recognizing the interdependence of surplus and shortage actions. The WSCP is consistent with the WSDM Plan. See Attachment A in Appendix 4. 3 The WSAP is intended as an equitable approach for encouraging water use efficiency and minimizing regional impacts in times of shortage consistent with the principles and considerations approved by the Board through the WSDM Plan. See Attachment B in Appendix 4.
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Challenges Ahead and Strategies for Managing Reliability Risks • Metropolitan faces a number of challenges in providing adequate, reliable, and high-quality supplemental water supplies for southern California: The Colorado River Basin has historically experienced large swings in annual hydrologic conditions; however, these swings have largely been buffered through a large volume of storage. • Dramatic swings in annual hydrologic conditions have impacted water supplies available from the State Water Project (SWP) over the last decade . Metropolitan’s efforts in building dry-year storage reserves, water banking and transfers have helped manage the wide swings in SWP allocations.
• With approximately 30 percent of Southern California’s water supply transported across the Bay-Delta, its declining ecosystem has led to reduction in water supply deliveries. Operational constraints will likely continue until a long -term solution to the problems in the Bay -Delta is identified and implemented.
• Approximately half of the region’s water supplies come from resources controlled or operated by local water agencies. These resources include water extracted from local groundwater basins, catchment of local surface water, non -Metropolitan imported water supplied through the Los Angeles Aqueduct, and Colorado River water exchanged for Metropolitan supplies.
• Water quality challenges, such as algae toxins, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances ( PFAS), and the identification of constituents of emerging concern, have a significant impact on the region’s water supply condition s and underscore the importance of flexible and adaptive regional planning strategies.
Metropolitan continues to address these water supply challenges through a variety of actions that will maintain water reliability within its service area. Metropolitan’s proactive measures include:
• Continuing water conservation by expanding outreach, adding devices, and increasing incentives to residents,
• Increasing local resources by providing incentives for on -site recycled water hook-up and the Local Resources Program (LRP),
• Augmenting water supplies through water transfers and exchanges, • Improving return capability of storage programs to effectively take delivery of water when needed,
• Maintaining dry year and emergency storage for the region to remain reliable during periods of low supply and emergencies,
• Modifying Metropolitan’s distribution system to enhance operational flexibility and efficient delivery of Colorado River, State Water Project, and in-region supplies within Metropolitan’s service area,
• Implementing shortage response actions under the Water Shortage Contingency Plan and elements of the Water Surplus and Drought Management Plan and Water Supply Allocation Plan to distribute the limited imported supplies and preserve storage reserves, and • Responding to water quality concerns by protecting the quality of the source water, developing water management programs that maintain and enhance water quality, and changing water treatment protocols or blending.
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Sections 1.4 and 2.6 offer detailed discussions and additional insight on Metropolitan’s current challenges, current available resources, short -term supply outlook, other supply reliability risks, and recent and near-term actions to meet these challenges.
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