City Council
December 5, 2023
2024 INTEGRATED
RESOURCE PLAN (IRP)
2 Senate Bill (SB) 350 Requirements
• Mandates an IRP for utilities with load > 700 giga-watt hours • 16 publicly owned utilities in CA that need to develop an IRP • Due before 1/1/24 to the California Energy Commission (CEC) • IRP written document/report
• 4 required tables
• Supplemental information as requested by the CEC
IRP Background
Need to balance reliability, affordability and sustainability (environmental stewardship) • SB 100 (signed in 2018)
• RPS of 60% by 2030
• 100% zero-carbon resources by 2045
• SB 1020 (signed in 2022)
• 90% zero-carbon resources by 2035
• 95% zero-carbon resources by 2040 (BWP’s aspirational goal is 100% zero-carbon resources by 2040)
3 Senate Bill 100 and SB 1020
Public Outreach
4 # Outreach Type and Details
9 meetings Stakeholder Technical Advisory Group (STAG) meetings.
Made up of a diverse group of ratepayers, including non-profits, ratepayer advocates, sustainability advocates, large customers, small customers, etc.
4 meetings Community stakeholder meetings (public meetings) 952
responses
IRP survey - 952 responses, advertised on the IRP website, Currents, billing inserts, etc.
10 meetings Provided monthly updates to BWP Board from December 2022- November 2023
2 meetings Provided updates to City Council on April 25, 2023, and July 25, 2023 Data Assumptions (April-May 2023)
5 Item April-May 2023 Assumptions Current Update
Load Did not include data centers or
other load additions and was
based on planned projects as of
May 2023
Potential 40-60 MW of
24/7 load coming online
by 2025-2026
Natural Gas
Prices
$6.07 forecast for October 2023 in
model
$7.06 as of 9/30/23 (spot
market prices)
Energy Prices Correlated with gas prices Correlated with gas prices
6 Item April-May 2023
Assumptions
Current Update
Renewable
Energy Credits
(REC)
$44/REC, with downward
pressure on prices
$85/REC, with upward pressure
for next 3-5 years
Intermountain
Power Project
(IPP)
Total costs of the project
was estimated at $4.286
billion
As of 10/2/23, project costs are
>$4.686 billion (increases debt
service for BWP by $587k a year)
Data Assumptions (April-May 2023)
7 Item April-May 2023 Assumptions Current Update
Hydrogen Assume technology would be
available for Magnolia, Lake and
Intermountain
No change
Renewable Natural
Gas (RNG)
RNG contracts would be in the
amount needed
No available RNG
contracts in the amount
needed
Carbon Capture and
Sequestration (CCS)
Requires at least 4 acres, does
not get emissions to zero
No change
Small Modular
Reactor (SMR)
$89/MWh (not including
transmission), online 2030
Project delayed until
after 2030
Technology Assumptions
8 Scenario
Name
Details
SB1020 +SMR Meet SB 100 requirements of 60% renewables by 2030, contracting for 25 MW of small modular reactor (SMR) by 2030 outside CA, meet the SB 1020 goal of 90% zero-carbon resources by 2035 and 100% zero- carbon resources by 2040
New
Transmission &
PPAs
Meet SB 100 requirements of 60% renewables by 2030, the BWP requirement of 100% zero-carbon by 2040 and working with LADWP to secure additional transmission services contracts to bring in renewables from Arizona, New Mexico, Barren Ridge of California and Imperial Irrigation District, for a total of 125 MW of renewables, via Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
2 Selected Scenarios - 7 Modeled
Scorecard (driven by STAG & survey results)
9 Item Details Weight
Cost/Ratepayer
Impacts
The total overall cost of the portfolio (the lower the
costs, the higher the score)
40%
Reliability Lower transmission losses and lower market
purchases (the lower the losses and market
purchases, the higher the score)
40%
Environmental
Stewardship
Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (the lower
the emissions, the higher the score)
10%
Diversity
Type of resource, length/contract term of resources,
type of technologies, location of resources, etc. A
diverse resource portfolio is required per SB 350.
10%
Total 100%
Scorecard Results
10 Preferred Scenario(s)
11 Projected Rate Impacts
12 Scenario Annual
Rate Increase
Bill Increase 2047
vs. Current
Base Case 4.03% 158%
Net Zero by 2030 9.49% 694%
SB 1020+ SMR 4.96% 213%
SB 1020+SMR w/ 50% DEV & EV
Demand 5.57% 256%
10% Higher EV&DEV Demand 3.94% 153%
10% Lower EV&DEV Demand 4.12% 163%
New Transmission & PPAs 4.03% 158%
Current
$117.50
2030
Estimated Additional Bill Impacts
Scenario: SB 100 + SB 1020 + SMR
Current
$72.00
Current
$186.21
2030
Current
$114.10
Current
$269.93
2030
Current
$165.40
Average Apartment/Condo Average Across All Residential Average Single-Family Home $188.13
2040
$298.13
2040
$432.17
2040
$223.11
2045
$353.57
2045
$512.53
2045
Scenario Projections
Assumes Class-Specific Rate Increases Approved by City Council for FY24-25 Scenario Projections Scenario Projections
Current
$410
2030
Current
$251
Current
$4,635
2030
Current
$3,010
Current
$37,530
2030
Current
$24,370
Small Commercial – Schedule C Large/Extra Large Commercial $656
2040
$7,405
2040
$59,951
2040
$778
2045
$8,789
2045
$71,161
2045
Scenario Projections Scenario Projections Scenario Projections Medium Commercial – Schedule D
Current
$112.32
2030
Estimated Additional Bill Impacts
Scenario: New Transmission and PPAs
Current
$72.00
Current
$178.00
2030
Current
$114.10
Current
$258.02
2030
Current
$165.40
Average Apartment/Condo Average Across All Residential Average Single-Family Home $146.16
2040
$231.62
2040
$335.76
2040
$181.44
2045
$287.53
2045
$416.81
2045
Scenario Projections
Assumes Class-Specific Rate Increases Approved by City Council for FY24-25 Scenario Projections Scenario Projections
Current
$392
2030
Current
$251
Current
$4,395
2030
Current
$3,010
Current
$35,581
2030
Current
$24,370
Small Commercial – Schedule C Large/Extra Large Commercial $510
2040
$5,749
2040
$46,547
2040
$633
2045
$7,134
2045
$57,758
2045
Scenario Projections Scenario Projections Scenario Projections Medium Commercial – Schedule D
SB1020 + SMR
15 0.0
50.0 100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
$/MWh
$000
Total System & Energy Costs
Total System Cost ($000) Portfolio Cost ($/MWh)
Costs go up 4X from 2023 to 2047, while load only goes up 70% Potential additional annual rate increase
of 4.96%
New Transmission + PPAs
16 0.0
50.0 100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
$/MWh
$000
Total System & Energy Costs
Total System Cost ($000) Portfolio Cost ($/MWh)
Costs go up 3.5X from 2023 to 2047, while load only goes up 70% Potential additional annual rate increase of 4.03%
SB1020 + SMR
17 -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
Gwh
Generation Mix by Resource Type
Natural Gas Coal Solar Wind Market Purchases Nuclear Hydro Geothermal H2 RNG New Transmission + PPAs
18 -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000Gwh
Generation Mix by Resource Type
Natural Gas Coal Solar Wind Market Purchases Nuclear Hydro Geothermal H2 RNG Timeline
19 11/2/23
• BWP Board recommend that the City Council approve the IRP 12/5/23
• Seek City Council approval
12/31/23
• Submit IRP to the CEC
Q2 2024
• CEC approval
Staff requests that the City Council adopt the 2024 BWP Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) that was prepared in
accordance with California Senate Bill (SB) 350, SB 100 and SB 1020.
20 Recommendation
Mandip K. Samra
Assistant General Manager – Power Supply
[email protected]
(818)-238-3557 office
21 CONTACT