Public-Comment-City-Council-07-10-2024-Housing-Market-Update-Not-Applicable

City of Camarillo
Public Comments
Wednesday, July 10, 2024 03:01 PMPUBLIC COMMENTS
NOTICE
This is a public document and will be posted as part of the public record. Any attachments, pictures, and information submitted will be subject to disclosure in accordance with applicable law, including the Public Records Act.

Meeting Date Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Agency City Council
Item Type Item Not On Agenda
Item Number or Subject Housing Market Update
Position Not Applicable
Comments
Upload Additional Information
PDF FINAL JUNE 2024 CAMARILL….pdf

IDENTIFICATION
Name Rob Leatherwood
Address 2350 Wankel Way
Oxnard, CA, 93030
Telephone
Email [email protected]
1 Public Records Acknowledgement By checking this box, I acknowledge that I understand anything I submit will become part of the public record and be subject to disclosure in accordance with applicable law, including the Public Records Act.
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Who Gets
to Call
California
Home?

CENTER FOR CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE SPECIAL REPORT
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/gid00196/gid00022/gid00020/gid00004/gid00001/gid00017/gid00045/gid00036/gid00030/gid00032/gid00001/gid00020/gid00030/gid00035/gid00042/gid00042/gid00039/gid00001/gid00042/gid00033/gid00001/gid00017/gid00048/gid00029/gid00039/gid00036/gid00030/gid00001/gid00017/gid00042/gid00039/gid00036/gid00030/gid00052 /gid00199/gid00023/gid00036/gid00045/gid00034/gid00036/gid00041/gid00036/gid00028/gid00001/gid00021 /gid00032/gid00030/gid00035 Copyright 2024 Realtors Property Resource® LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Information is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity. 7/10/2024
Rob LeatherwoodDirector of Government Affairs

LOCAL ECONOMIC AREA REPORT
Camarillo
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This report is powered by Realtors Property Resource®, a wholly owned subsidiary of the NationalAssociation of REALTORS®

Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
Copyright 2024 Realtors Property Resource® LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Information is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity. 7/10/2024
Criteria Used for Analysis
Median Household Income Median Age Total Population 1st Dominant Segment $110,680 42.2 84,451 Workday Drive
Consumer Segmentation
Life Mode Urbanization
What are thepeople like thatlive in thisarea?
Family Landscapes
Successful young families intheir first homes
Where dopeople like thisusually live?
Suburban Periphery
The most populous and fastest-growing among Urbanization groups,Suburban Periphery includes one-third of the nation's population Top TapestrySegments Workday DriveExurbanites Pleasantville In Style Top Tier % of Households 5,629 (18.1%) 4,118 (13.2%) 3,879 (12.4%) 2,631 (8.4%) 2,077 (6.7%) % of Ventura County13,167 (4.7%) 15,668 (5.6%) 39,692 (14.1%) 4,022 (1.4%) 9,869 (3.5%) Lifestyle Group Family LandscapesAffluent Estates Upscale Avenues GenXurban Affluent Estates Urbanization GroupSuburban PeripherySuburban PeripherySuburban PeripheryMetro Cities Suburban Periphery Residence Type Single Family Single Family Single Family Single Family Single Family Household Type Married CouplesMarried CouplesMarried CouplesMarried Couplesw/No Kids Married Couples Average Household Size2.88 2.5 2.85 2.32 2.84
Median Age 37.5 52.2 43.4 43 48.3
Diversity Index 62.1 48.2 72.4 50.9 50.3
Median HouseholdIncome $108,600 $121,200 $115,400 $87,800 $200,000 Median Net Worth $363,200 $771,700 $522,700 $243,800 $1,512,900 Median Home Value $358,100 $542,200 $518,800 $348,500 $892,900 Homeownership 85.4 % 86.3 % 84.4 % 70.7 % 90.7 %
Employment Professional orMgmnt/Bus/FinancialProfessional orMgmnt/Bus/FinancialProfessional orMgmnt/Bus/FinancialProfessional orMgmnt/Bus/FinancialProfessional orMgmnt/Bus/Financial Education Bachelor's DegreeBachelor's DegreeBachelor's DegreeBachelor's DegreeGrad/Prof Degree Preferred Activities Prefer outdooractivities and sports. Family-orientedpurchases andactivities dominate.

Gardening and homeimprovement arepriorities . Active intheir communities.

Enjoy outdoorgardening . Go to thebeach, theme parks,museums.

Support arts,concerts, theaters,museums . Preferorganic foods, growtheir own vegetables.

Shop at high-endretailers . Frequentvacations that spareno expense.

Financial Well insured, investin a range of funds,high debt Rely on financialplanners andextensive reading
Invest conservativelyVariety ofinvestments oftenmanaged by afinancial planner Hire financialadvisers
Media Connected, with ahost of wirelessdevices
Well-connected anduse the internet tostay current
Use all types ofmedia equally(newspapers,magazines, radio,Internet, TV).

Connected andknowledgeable viasmartphones
Consider the Internet,radio, andnewspapers as keymedia sources Vehicle Own 2+ vehicles(minivans, SUVs)Choose late-modelluxury cars, SUVsPrefer importedSUVs Partial to late modelSUVs and compactSUVs Purchase or leaseluxury cars,preferably imports.

Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Who We Are
Workday Drive is an affluent, family-
oriented market with a country flavor.

Residents are partial to new housing
away from the bustle of the city but
close enough to commute to
professional job centers. Life in this
suburban wilderness offsets the hectic
pace of two working parents with
growing children. They favor time-saving
devices, like banking online or
housekeeping services, and family-
oriented pursuits.

Our Neighborhood
Workday Drive residents prefer thesuburban periphery of metropolitanareas. Predominantly single family,homes are in newer neighborhoods, 34%built in the 1990s, 31% built since 2000.Owner-occupied homes have high rateof mortgages at 68%, and low ratevacancy at 4%. Median home value is$257,400. Most households are marriedcouples with children; averagehousehold size is 2.97. Most householdshave 2 or 3 vehicles; long travel time towork including a disproportionatenumber commuting from a differentcounty Socioeconomic Traits
Education: 40.5% college graduates;more than 72% with some collegeeducation. High labor force participationrate at 71%; 2 out of 3 householdsinclude 2+ workers. Connected, with ahost of wireless devices, anything thatenables convenience, like banking,paying bills, or even shopping online.Well insured and invested in a range offunds, from savings accounts or bonds tostocks. Carry a higher level of debt,including first and second mortgages andauto loans.

Market Profile
Most households own at least 2 vehicles;the most popular types are minivans andSUVs. Family-oriented purchases andactivities dominate, like 4+ televisions,movie purchases or rentals, children’sapparel and toys, and visits to themeparks or zoos. Outdoor activities andsports are characteristic of life in thesuburban periphery. They attend sportingevents, as well as participate in them likebicycling, jogging, golfing, and boating.Home maintenance services arefrequently contracted, but these familiesalso like their gardens and own the toolsfor minor upkeep, like lawn mowers,trimmers, and blowers.

An overview of who makes up this segment across the United States The demographic segmentation shown here can help you understand the lifestyles and life stages of consumers in a market. Data providerEsri classifies U.S. residential neighborhoods into 67 unique market segments based on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.Data Source: Esri 2023. Update Frequency: Annually.

This is the
#1
dominant segmentfor this area
In this area

18.1%
of households fallinto this segment
In the United States

3.1%
of households fallinto this segment
About this segment
Workday Drive
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Information is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity. 7/10/2024
Who We Are
Exurbanites residents are now
approaching retirement but showing few
signs of slowing down. They are active
in their communities, generous in their
donations, and seasoned travelers.

They take advantage of their proximity
to large metropolitan centers to support
the arts but prefer a more expansive
home style in less crowded
neighborhoods. They have cultivated a
lifestyle that is both affluent and urbane.

Our Neighborhood
Established neighborhoods (most builtbetween 1970 and 1990) found in thesuburban periphery of large metropolitanmarkets. A larger market of emptynesters, married couples with nochildren; average household size is 2.50.Primarily single-family homes with a highmedian value of $423,400, most stillcarrying mortgages. Higher vacancy rateat 9%.

Socioeconomic Traits
Residents are college educated; morethan half have a bachelor’s degree orhigher; nearly 81% have some collegeeducation. This labor force is beginningto retire. 1 in 3 households currentlyreceive Social Security or retirementincome. Labor force participation hasdeclined to less than 60%. More of theresidents prefer self-employment orworking from home. Consumers aremore interested in quality than cost. Theytake pride in their homes and foster asense of personal style. Exurbanitesresidents are well connected, using theInternet for everything from shopping tomanaging their finances. Sociable andhardworking, they still find time to stayphysically fit.

Market Profile
Exurbanites residents’ preferred vehiclesare late model luxury cars or SUVs.Active supporters of the arts and publictelevision/radio. Attentive to ingredients,they prefer natural or organic products.Gardening and home improvement arepriorities, but they also use a number ofservices, from home care andmaintenance to personal care.Financially active with wide-ranginginvestments, these investors rely onfinancial planners, extensive reading,and the Internet to handle their money.

This is the
#2
dominant segmentfor this area
In this area

13.2%
of households fallinto this segment
In the United States

1.9%
of households fallinto this segment
About this segment
Exurbanites
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Who We Are
Prosperous domesticity best describes
the settled denizens of Pleasantville.

Situated principally in older housing in
suburban areas in the Northeast
(especially in New York and New
Jersey) and secondarily in the West
(especially in California), these slightly
older couples move less than any other
market. Many couples have already
transitioned to empty nesters; many are
still home to adult children. Families
own older, single-family homes and
maintain their standard of living with
dual incomes. These consumers have
higher incomes and home values and
much higher net worth. Older homes
require upkeep; home improvement and
remodeling projects are a priority--
preferably done by contractors.

Residents spend their spare time
participating in a variety of sports or
watching movies. They shop online and
in a variety of stores, from upscale to
discount, and use the Internet largely for
financial purposes.

Our Neighborhood
Suburban periphery of large metropolitanareas, primarily in Middle Atlantic orPacific states. Most homes owned (andmortgaged). Households composed ofolder married-couple families, morewithout children under 18, but many withchildren over 18 years. Older, single-family homes: two-thirds built before1970, close to half from 1950 to 1969.One of the lowest percentages of vacanthousing units at 4.5%. Suburbanhouseholds with 3 or more vehicles anda longer travel time to work.

Socioeconomic Traits
Education: 66% college educated, 37%with a bachelor’s degree or higher.Higher labor force participation rate at67%; higher proportion of HHs with 2 ormore workers. Many professionals infinance, information/technology,education, or management. Medianhousehold income denotes affluence,with income primarily from salaries, butalso from investments or Social Securityand retirement income. Not cost-conscious, these consumers willing tospend more for quality and brands theylike. Prefer fashion that is classic andtimeless as opposed to trendy. Use alltypes of media equally (newspapers,magazines, radio, Internet, TV).

Market Profile
Prefer imported SUVs, serviced by a gasstation or car dealer. Invest inconservative securities and contribute tocharities. Work on home improvementand remodeling projects, but also hirecontractors. Have bundled services(TV/Internet/phone). Access the Internetvia fiber optics or cable modem, on anewer computer, to pay bills, makepurchases, and track investments.Subscribe to premium channels (HBO,Showtime, or Starz) and use video-on-demand to watch TV shows and movies.Enjoy outdoor gardening, going to thebeach, visiting theme parks, frequentingmuseums, and attending rock concerts.

This is the
#3
dominant segmentfor this area
In this area

12.4%
of households fallinto this segment
In the United States

2.1%
of households fallinto this segment
About this segment
Pleasantville
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Information is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity. 7/10/2024
Who We Are
In Style denizens embrace an urbane
lifestyle that includes support of the arts,
travel and extensive reading. They are
connected and make full use of the
advantages of mobile devices.

Professional couples or single
households without children, they have
the time to focus on their homes and
their interests. The population is slightly
older and already planning for their
retirement.

Our Neighborhood
City dwellers of large metropolitan areas.Married couples, primarily with nochildren or single households; averagehousehold size at 2.35. Home ownershipaverage at 68%; nearly half, 47%,mortgaged. Primarily single-familyhomes, in older neighborhoods (builtbefore 1980) with a mix of town homesand smaller (5 –19 units) apartmentbuildings. Median home value at$243,900. Vacant housing units at 8.6%.

Socioeconomic Traits
College educated: 48% are graduates;77% with some college education.Higher labor force participation rate is at67% with proportionately more 2-workerhouseholds. Median household incomeof $73,000 reveals an affluent marketwith income supplemented byinvestments and a substantial net worth.Connected and knowledgeable, theycarry smartphones and use many of thefeatures. Attentive to price, they usecoupons, especially mobile coupons.

Market Profile
Partial to late model SUVs: compactSUVs are gaining popularity. Homesintegral part of their style; invest in homeremodeling/maintenance, DIY orcontractors; housekeeping hired. Preferorganic foods, including growing theirown vegetables. Financially active, owna variety of investments often managedby a financial planner. Meticulousplanners, both well insured and wellinvested in retirement savings. Generouswith support of various charities andcauses. Actively support the arts, theater,concerts, and museums.

This is the
#4
dominant segmentfor this area
In this area

8.4%
of households fallinto this segment
In the United States

2.2%
of households fallinto this segment
About this segment
In Style
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Information is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity. 7/10/2024
Who We Are
The residents of the wealthiest Tapestry
market, Top Tier, earn more than three
times the US household income. They
have the purchasing power to indulge
any choice, but what do their hearts’
desire? Aside from the obvious expense
for the upkeep of their lavish homes,
consumers select upscale salons, spas,
and fitness centers for their personal
well-being and shop at high-end
retailers for their personal effects.

Whether short or long, domestic or
foreign, their frequent vacations spare
no expense. Residents fill their
weekends and evenings with opera,
classical music concerts, charity
dinners, and shopping. These highly
educated professionals have reached
their corporate career goals. With an
accumulated average net worth of over
$3 million dollars and income from a
strong investment portfolio, many of
these older residents have moved into
consulting roles or operate their own
businesses.

Our Neighborhood
Married couples without children ormarried couples with older childrendominate this market. Housing units areowner occupied with the highest homevalues—and above-average use ofmortgages. Neighborhoods are older andlocated in the suburban periphery of thelargest metropolitan areas, especiallyalong the coasts.

Socioeconomic Traits
Top Tier is a highly educated, successfulconsumer market: more than one inthree residents has a postgraduatedegree. Annually, they earn more thanthree times the US median householdincome, primarily from wages and salarybut also self-employment income andinvestments. These are the nation’swealthiest consumers. They hire financialadvisers to manage their diverseinvestment portfolios but stay abreast ofcurrent financial trends and products.Socially responsible consumers who aimfor a balanced lifestyle, they are goaloriented and hardworking but make timefor their kids or grandkids and maintain aclose-knit group of friends. These busyconsumers seek variety in life. They takean interest in the fine arts; read toexpand their knowledge; and considerthe internet, radio, and newspapers askey media sources. They regularly cooktheir meals at home, attentive to goodnutrition and fresh organic foods.

Market Profile
These frequent travelers take severaldomestic trips a year, preferring to booktheir plane tickets, accommodations, andrental cars via the internet. Residentstake pride in their picture-perfect homes,which they continually upgrade. Theyshop at Home Depot and Bed Bath &Beyond to tackle the smaller homeimprovement and remodeling tasks butcontract out the larger projects. Hirehousekeepers or professional cleaners.Residents are prepared for the ups anddowns in life; they maintain lifeinsurance; homeowners and autoinsurance; as well as medical, vision,dental, and prescription insurancethrough work. They are actively investingfor the future; they hold 401(k) and IRAretirement plans, plus securities.Consumers spend on credit but have thedisposable income to avoid a balance ontheir credit cards. They spend heavily oninternet shopping; Amazon.com is afavorite website. Consumers find time intheir busy schedules for themselves.They work out in their homegyms,owning at least a treadmill, anelliptical, or weightlifting equipment. Theyalso visit the salon and spa regularly. Allfamily members are avid readers; theyread on their smartphones, tablets, ande-readers but also read hard copies ofepicurean, home service, and sportsmagazines. Residents, both young andold, are tech savvy; they not only ownthe latest and greatest in tablets,smartphones, and laptops but actuallyuse the features each has to offer.

This is the
#5
dominant segmentfor this area
In this area

6.7%
of households fallinto this segment
In the United States

1.6%
of households fallinto this segment
About this segment
Top Tier
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Information is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity. 7/10/2024
2023
2028 (Projected)
Total Population
This chart shows the total population inan area, compared with othergeographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
2023
2028 (Projected)
Population Density
This chart shows the number of peopleper square mile in an area, comparedwith other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
2023
2028 (Projected)
Population Change Since2020
This chart shows the percentagechange in area's population from 2020to 2023, compared with othergeographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo
Total Daytime Population
This chart shows the number of peoplewho are present in an area duringnormal business hours, includingworkers, and compares that populationto other geographies. Daytimepopulation is in contrast to the"resident" population present duringevening and nighttime hours.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo: Population Comparison
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Ventura County
Daytime Population Density
This chart shows the number peoplewho are present in an area duringnormal business hours, includingworkers, per square mile in an area,compared with other geographies.Daytime population is in contrast to the"resident" population present duringevening and nighttime hours.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
2023
2028 (Projected)
Average Household Size
This chart shows the averagehousehold size in an area, comparedwith other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
2023
2028 (Projected)
Population Living in FamilyHouseholds
This chart shows the percentage of anarea’s population that lives in ahousehold with one or more individualsrelated by birth, marriage or adoption,compared with other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Women 2023
Men 2023
Women 2028 (Projected)
Men 2028 (Projected)
Female / Male Ratio
This chart shows the ratio of femalesto males in an area, compared withother geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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2023
2028 (Projected)
Median Age
This chart shows the median age in anarea, compared with othergeographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
2023
2028 (Projected)
Population by Age
This chart breaks down the populationof an area by age group.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo: Age Comparison
Camarillo
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Married
Unmarried
Married / Unmarried AdultsRatio
This chart shows the ratio of married tounmarried adults in an area, comparedwith other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Married
This chart shows the number of peoplein an area who are married, comparedwith other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Never Married
This chart shows the number of peoplein an area who have never beenmarried, compared with othergeographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Widowed
This chart shows the number of peoplein an area who are widowed,compared with other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Divorced
This chart shows the number of peoplein an area who are divorced,compared with other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo: Marital Status Comparison
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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2023
2028 (Projected)
Average Household Income
This chart shows the averagehousehold income in an area,compared with other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
2023
2028 (Projected)
Median Household Income
This chart shows the medianhousehold income in an area,compared with other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
2023
2028 (Projected)
Per Capita Income
This chart shows per capita income inan area, compared with othergeographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Average Disposable Income
This chart shows the averagedisposable income in an area,compared with other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo: Economic Comparison
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Information is not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity. 7/10/2024
Employment Count byIndustry
This chart shows industries in an areaand the number of people employed ineach category.

Data Source: Bureau of LaborStatistics via Esri, 2023
Update Frequency: Annually

Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Less than 9th Grade
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area who have less thana ninth grade education, comparedwith other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Some High School
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area whose highesteducational achievement is some highschool, without graduating or passinga high school GED test, compared withother geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
High School GED
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area whose highesteducational achievement is passing ahigh school GED test, compared withother geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
High School Graduate
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area whose highesteducational achievement is highschool, compared with othergeographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo: Education Comparison
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Some College
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area whose highesteducational achievement is somecollege, without receiving a degree,compared with other geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Associate Degree
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area whose highesteducational achievement is anassociate degree, compared with othergeographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Bachelor's Degree
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area whose highesteducational achievement is abachelor's degree, compared withother geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Grad/Professional Degree
This chart shows the percentage ofpeople in an area whose highesteducational achievement is a graduateor professional degree, compared withother geographies.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Camarillo
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Camarillo
Average Commute Time
This chart shows average commutetimes to work, in minutes, bypercentage of an area's population.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo
How People Get to Work
This chart shows the types oftransportation that residents of thearea you searched use for theircommute, by percentage of an area'spopulation.

Data Source: U.S. Census AmericanCommunity Survey via Esri, 2023 Update Frequency: Annually
Camarillo: Commute Comparison
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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Median Estimated HomeValue
This chart displays property estimatesfor an area and a subject property,where one has been selected.Estimated home values are generatedby a valuation model and are notformal appraisals.

Data Source: Valuation calculationsbased on public records and MLSsources where licensed Update Frequency: Monthly
12 mo. Change in MedianEstimated Home Value
This chart shows the 12-month changein the estimated value of all homes inthis area, the county and the state.Estimated home values are generatedby a valuation model and are notformal appraisals.

Data Source: Valuation calculationsbased on public records and MLSsources where licensed Update Frequency: Monthly
Camarillo: Home Value Comparison
Local Economic Area Report Camarillo
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About RPR(Realtors Property Resource)
Realtors Property Resource® is a wholly owned subsidiary of the National Association REALTORS®.

RPR offers comprehensive data – including a nationwide database of 164 million properties – as well as powerful analytics and dynamic reports exclusively for members of the NAR.

RPR's focus is giving residential and commercial real estate practitioners, brokers, and MLS and Association staff the tools they need to serve their clients.

This report has been provided to you by a member of the NAR.

About RPR's Data
RPR generates and compiles real estate and other data from a vast array of sources. The data contained in your report includes some or all of the following:

Listing datafrom our partner MLSs and CIEs, and related calculations, like estimated value for a property or median sales price for a local market.

Public records dataincluding tax, assessment, and deed information.

Foreclosure and distressed data from public records.

Market conditions and forecastsbased on listing and public records data.

Census and employment datafrom the U.S. Census and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Demographics and trends datafrom Esri. The data in commercial and economic reports includes Tapestry Segmentation, which classifies U.S. residential neighborhoods into unique market segments based on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.

Business dataincluding consumer expenditures, commercial market potential, retail marketplace, SIC and NAICS business information, and banking potential data from Esri.

School data and reviewsfrom Niche.

Specialty data setssuch as walkability scores, traffic counts and flood zones.

Update Frequency
Listings and public records data are updated on a continuous basis.

Charts and statistics calculated from listing and public records data are refreshed monthly.

Other data sets range from daily to annual updates.

Learn more
For more information about RPR, please visit RPR's
public website: https://blog.narrpr.com

TIME TO GETTIME TO GETSERIOUSSERIOUSABOUT SUPPLYABOUT SUPPLY Jordan Levine
Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
California Association of REALTORS®
Time to Get Serious About Supply
By J ordan L evine, Senior Vic e President & C hief E conomist, California A ssociation of R EALTORS® I. Introduction
California has a housing crisis. This fact is not new, but it has become more acute with far reaching effects. The need for an adequate housing stock in California has become even more urgent in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that struck the U.S. in early 2020. Housing has become more important to families than ever before because it is where we live, work, play, go to school, and so much more due to the crisis.

Fortunately, there has been some progress made in recent years on building consensus for the broad causes of the crisis as well as broad solutions that could be implemented in the future.

In general, it is much more likely to hear California’s current housing woes blamed on “supply” today than at any point in recent memory.

However, the specifics of how to bring more supply online is more controversial. Some advocate for more state control over local housing decisions (a la recent build by right proposals) that have yet to garner broad support at the local level. Other proponents of new housing suggest that changes to zoning, land use, or density rules are the key to unlocking new supply. Boosting the rate of production of more accessory dwelling units also has its strong backers. Reforming statewide environmental regulations, like California’s Environmental Quality Act, are often highlighted as a substantive solution. Others argue that more land needs to be made available or that the growth in the costs of land needs to slow for housing to take off.

Often, the structure of California’s tax code is implicated as a roadblock—at both the state and local levels. Builders and academics alike have highlighted the myriad of fees assessed on new development, which can in some cases drastically increase the cost to produce new housing.i In some cases, the cities themselves are blamed for the lack of new construction by implementing policies that make new development less attractive from a business standpoint including burdensome parking requirements, setbacks, floor area ratios, and others. Thus, even as consensus starts to emerge that “supply” is the primary source of California’s housing woes, the action items stemming from this broad agreement are far from settled.

Many of these proposals have merit, but it is also critical to understand that they are not mutually exclusive options. There is no single, simple solution to California’s housing crisis.

Many factors hold back new development, and every area is unique in terms of size, location, economy, history, geography, demographics, housing stock, vacancy rates, and growth characteristics. Thus, the difficulty of finding a “one size fits all” solution begins to become evident.

Rather than relying on a single policy to save the proverbial day; cities, counties, the state, and voters should focus on making moderate changes to a variety of policies that, together, can begin to reverse the damaging impacts the housing shortage has created. Stephen Levy, former Director and Senior Economist for the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, said it best when he wrote that, “What will be required, instead, is an ‘all of the above’ strategy, supported by the broadest possible coalition, with leadership at the highest levels of state and local government.”ii
This paper will begin by laying out the roots of the housing shortage over the past 3-4 decades, how that housing shortage has impacted the housing market in California, how families bear the brunt of this shortfall, and how those trends force a spillover into the broader economy.

We recommend shifting the conversation away from silver bullets and towards many modest, incremental changes that can collectively add up to a comprehensive solution.

I. The Problem: Evidence of California’s Housing Crisis California has been underbuilding for decades, and though the economy has gone through various business cycles since the 1980s, one pattern has remained consistent: the economy and population base has outstripped growth in our housing stock. Many reasons underlie that fact, but this simple statement captures the essence of California’s housing crisis. In fact, these outcomes are a predictable outcome of basic undergraduate economic models: supply shortages lead to disproportionate increases in price that, in turn, suppress demand/consumption of a particular good or service—in this case, housing. Indeed, models further predict that prices will rise to the level of willingness to pay of the more affluent consumers and that others will end up under- and un-housed, which is precisely what we observe in California today.

This has thrust the housing crisis into the spotlight for policymakers across the state, with consensus that the solution is more supply. In the 2018 gubernatorial race, Gavin Newsom called for 3.5 million new homes to be built by 2025iii and many key statewide agencies point to housing as an impediment to economic growth and to our quality of life. For example, in their 0 50,000
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California Residential Permits vs. Estimated Housing Need Residential Units HCD's Estimated Need
statewide housing assessment, California’s Housing and Community Development Department (hereafter “HCD”) estimated that the state needs to produce roughly 180,000 units each year just to accommodate our population and economic growth.iv However, 2020 became the 15th consecutive year where California fell far short of that production target. Going beyond that to the previous 33 years for which we have consistent information, California has only met or exceeded the projected target 5 times.v It has therefore fallen short of its projected need for 28 of the past 33 years.

The impacts of this shortfall have become more evident the longer that they have persisted. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (hereafter “LAO”) cites the lack of new housing construction as the key driver of reduced housing affordability in recent decades, and the consequent impacts that are associated with less affordability.vi

To illustrate the problem,
let us consider a few critical data
points that go a long way towards
explaining the erosion of housing
affordability since the mid-1980s.

An important historical
observation is that, prior to 1970,
homeownership in California was
roughly on par with homeownership in the rest of the United States. However, by 2020 the gap between U.S. and California homeownership had opened to almost 11 percentage points (66.6% vs. 55.9%).vii
Homeownership Rates by Decade
Year
U.S.

Homeownership
Rate (%)
California
Homeownership
Rate (%)
1950 55.0 54.3
1960 61.9 58.4
1970 62.9 54.9
1980 64.4 55.9
1990 64.2 55.6
2000 66.2 56.9
2010 66.9 56.1
2020 66.6 55.9
Why has affordability and homeownership struggled so disproportionately in California? A lack of new construction explains much of this divergence. In 1986, California was home to roughly 27 million residents. By 2020, the population had swelled to just short of 40 million.

However, during that same period, housing production decreased dramatically. In 1988 (the earliest source of good information on housing production in California), the state was permitting more than 255,000 units per year—well above the HCD’s current target of 180,000 units per year. In 2020, California permitted just 100,000 permits. This bears repeating. In the 3+ decades since the 1980s, California’s population expanded by 45% while the annual pace of new residential construction contracted by more than 60%.

The results are similar when viewed from the perspective of economic, rather than demographic changes. For example, California added nearly 4.9 million new jobs to its nonfarm payrolls between 1990 and 2019,viii but it permitted just 3.4 million new housing units. That represents a ratio of one new home built for every 1.4 new jobs created. However, those long- range calculations mask the acceleration in underbuilding that has occurred since the Great Recession. From the start of the recovery in 2010 to the end of the expansion in 2019, California has added 3.1 million jobs, and was more than 1.7 million jobs above the previous all-time high set back in 2007. During the same period, California permitted just 853,000 new residential units. That means that the state permitted just 1 home for every 3.7 new jobs the economy created.

It is also worth pointing out that these figures likely overstate California’s construction progress. Many of these permits represent infill or redevelopment projects, where an older, smaller, or blighted home gets replaced by a newer, larger, and more expensive home. As such, the permit figures do not equate to a 1-for-1 increase in the state’s housing supply. In other words, the net housing stock has not grown by the full 853,000 units that have been permitted.

In addition to examining California’s past, we can also compare it to other states. Here too, California falls well short on housing production. Except for Rhode Island, which created fewer than 50,000 new jobs during the most recent economic cycle, California ranks dead last in terms of new residential construction per job created. Between 2010 and 2019, California built less housing per new job than Massachusetts, New York, or Washington D.C. States like Texas, Arizona, Idaho, Washington, and Florida, where significant numbers of Californians have moved over the past decade, are building at least twice as much on a per-job basis as California. We built less than half as much as Hawaii, which is a literal island in the middle of the ocean.

New Jobs Per Residential Unit Permitted, 2010-2019
Rhode Island 4.3 Florida 1.9 North Carolina 1.4
California 3.7 Washington 1.8 Arkansas 1.3
Massachusetts 3.6 Minnesota 1.8 Oklahoma 1.3
New York 3.4 Tennessee 1.8 Kansas 1.3
Michigan 3.3 Kentucky 1.8 Maine 1.2
Ohio 2.8 Hawaii 1.7 Vermont 1.2
Illinois 2.8 Wisconsin 1.7 New Mexico 1.1
Nevada 2.3 Missouri 1.7 Nebraska 1.1
Oregon 2.2 Montana 1.6 Iowa 1.1
Indiana 2.1 Texas 1.6 North Dakota 1.1
Washington D.C. 2.1 Idaho 1.6 Mississippi 1.1
Pennsylvania 2.1 Maryland 1.6 Delaware 1.0
Utah 2.0 Connecticut 1.6 South Dakota 0.8
New Hampshire 2.0 New Jersey 1.5 Louisiana 0.7
Georgia 2.0 Virginia 1.5 Alaska 0.3
Arizona 1.9 South Carolina 1.4 Wyoming 0.3

Some argue that this trend is highly regional in nature: coastal areas enjoy significant job growth but are more reluctant to build new housing, while inland areas pick up the slack. And, although inland areas do tend to build slightly more relative to their economic growth, the results are hardly encouraging. For example, in the cycle that just ended, the San Francisco Bay Area led the state in economic growth and created more than 900,000 jobs since the 2009 recession ended. Yet it permitted just 207,000 units, or 1 home for every 4.4 jobs it created. Southern California mirrors the statewide average of 1 home for every 3.7 new jobs created with roughly 434,000 new permits issued since 2010 compared with more than 1.6 million new jobs created.

The Central Coast matches the statewide trend as well. The Central Valley, which has a reputation for being more friendly towards new residential development performed better, but still only created 1 home for every 2.2 new jobs in the south and 3.2 new jobs in the north. Thus, while some areas are clearly doing better than others in terms of building housing, we still build less in the Central Valley than we do in most other parts of the country. Despite being our most pro-housing region, if the South San Joaquin Valley were a state, it would still be the 10th worst offender for underbuilding in the nation.

909,667
121,417
289,675
156,917
1,600,358
207,009
32,884 90,284 70,165
433,635
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Bay Area Central Coast North Central
Valley
South Central
Valley
Southern California
California Job Growth vs. Residential Construction
(2010-2019/Pre-Crisis)
New Jobs Residential Permits
In some ways, California’s largest strength—its fast-growing economy—has become its largest weakness, as housing supply has failed to keep pace. This has meant lower vacancy rates, less housing turnover, and more Californians living in overcrowded housing units. In the following sections, we turn to the consequences of this under-supply in terms of its impacts on the housing market as well as why the housing crisis is about a lot more than housing.

II. The Impacts of Underbuilding on the Housing Market
This lack of housing production has a tremendous impact on how the housing market operates in California. Because our population and economy has grown so much more than our housing stock, fewer of our homes are vacant and available to rent or purchase. In 2019, California was tied with Ohio and Rhode Island for the 5th lowest homeowner vacancy rate in the nation with just 1.2% of the owner-occupied housing stock available for sale. On the rental side, California falls to the 3rd lowest rental vacancy rate in the nation at 4.1%. That compares to

1.5%/6.0% owner/renter vacancy rates in the rest of the United States and is well below vacancy rates in other high-cost areas like Hawaii (1.4%/8.8%) and Washington D.C. (1.9%/7.0%), Connecticut (1.5%/6.4%), and New Jersey (1.4%/4.2%) while being on par with New York (1.6%/4.0%).ix
However, the vacancy rate actually masks some of the supply shortage. Not only are there fewer available housing units in California than most other parts of the nation, but the units that we do have tend to be more overcrowded. Overcrowding is typically measured as households that have more than one occupant per room, where rooms include kitchens, living rooms, lounges, and bathrooms. The number of sleeping rooms is often well below the total number of rooms in any particular housing unit. With 8.2% of households overcrowded according to 2019 Census data, California is second only to Hawaii in overcrowding. This is well above the national average of 3.3% in the rest of the United States and significantly higher than even other high-cost areas like New York (4.9%), Washington (3.5%), Washington D.C. (2.7%), and New Jersey (3.2%).x
In addition to the human cost implied by such figures, it also means that we are overburdening our existing housing supply, which further reduces mobility—another key aspect of supply. Not only are we not building enough new homes, but our existing housing stock is also turning over much less than has traditionally been true. From 1980 to 1989, roughly 8% of the owner-occupied single-family homes turned over each year. Since 2010, that has averaged just 6.3%—a significant deceleration in proportional terms.xi This is also well below the national average for housing turnover. This results in fewer home sales, which unlike the size of California’s population or labor market, are roughly the same 400,000-420,000 units per year that they averaged in 1986 when there were 13 million fewer people living in the state.

Unfortunately, the impact of chronic underbuilding is not limited to the smooth operation of the housing market with more vacancy, homes turning over, and more residents living in overcrowded housing. As implied by economic theory, this imbalance between supply and demand has driven more harmful effects through the price mechanism, which Adam Smith described as the “invisible hand.” These impacts on people and families are the logical extension of the excess demand for rental and ownership housing that persists in California, and it is to these impacts on our quality of life and the underlying promise of the state that we now turn.

III. The Impacts of Underbuilding on People and Families If the consequences of failing to accommodate economic and population growth by building an adequate supply of housing were limited to less mobility and fewer home sales each year, the problem may not have developed into a full blown crisis. However, the negative effects extend well beyond the proper functioning of the housing market. In particular, rents and prices have been driven up much faster than incomes, which is where the rubber meets the road when it comes to the shortage. Compared with where rents and prices were in the past or where they are in most other parts of the nation, housing is not affordable for the typical family. This creates a significant economic and human cost that is vividly evident when we look at the burdens an unaffordable housing stock places on families.

On the ownership side of the market, home prices in California are more than double the national average. In December 2020, the median sale price of an existing single-family home nationwide was $309,800.xii In California, the median price for the same period was $717,930.xiii However, this has not always been the case. Back in 1970, the median-priced home in California was $1,460 more expensive or 7.4% than the typical home nationwide. By the end of the 1970s, California prices were roughly 50% above the national average, with additional deterioration in the 1980s and 1990s. By the turn of the century, prices in California were more than double the national average, peaking at a premium of nearly 160% above the U.S. median price in 2007.

Prices fell significantly in the wake of the Great Recession of 2009-2010, but the subsequent economic expansion drove both nominal price levels and the ‘California premium’ back to more than twice the national average again by 2013 where it has remained ever since. Homes are not only much more expensive than they used to be, but prices have also risen faster than they have in the rest of the U.S.

High prices are only part of the story because one needs to account for the incomes used to pay those prices as well as borrowing costs, which is precisely what broader measure of affordability introduce. After controlling for these factors, just 27% of households in California could afford the median priced home by the end of 2020, while roughly 55% of households nationwide could boast the same.xiv Other measures of affordability show similar contrasts. The Census Bureau reported that California has 28.5% of its homeowners spending at least 35% of their gross income on their mortgage and other associated monthly housing costs. Once again, that is more than any other state in the nation except Hawaii, and well above the national average of 19.9% of households that are mortgage burdened.xv
Although incomes in California exceed the national average, affordability is still much worse for the typical homebuyer than it is in most other parts of the country. The story only modestly improves for renters. According to the latest data, 43.6% of California’s renters are “rent burdened” as well, meaning that they also pay at least 35% of their gross income on housing costs. Relative to other states, California performs only slightly better, rising to 4th worst overall behind Florida, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This means that families living in California, regardless of whether they rent or own, must spend more of their income to keep a roof over their heads than they would have to in other parts of the nation. That leaves them more financially stressed because they have less income to dedicate to their health, education, children, financial independence, saving, investing, taxes, and entertainment, amongst other things. This impacts their own quality of life, our economy, and California’s ability to be able to deliver on the American Dream of social mobility and intergenerational advancement more broadly.

Nowhere is this more tragically evident than in the number of Californians in extreme financial distress. The National Alliance to End Homelessness reports that California has seen an uptick in the population of homeless persons even before the onset of the public health crisis.xvi More than 150,000 people were homeless in California on any given night in 2019—up 9% from the previous year with a significant rise in those living ‘unsheltered.’ That equates to more than 38 homeless individuals per 10,000 population in California. This is behind Washington D.C. and New York, which had 93 and 47 homeless per 10,000 population, but is tied with Oregon for 3rd worst in the nation in terms of the homeless rate. In addition, California has more homeless people living here than in all of New York, Washington D.C., and Oregon combined.

Even those Californians who manage to avoid homelessness face significant financial hurdles due to rising housing costs and can often find themselves living well below the poverty line. More than 8% of families in California were living below the poverty line in 2019, placing California 22nd in terms of highest poverty rate nationwide. xviii
xvii However, the baseline poverty line
cutoff is the same for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. In 2019, this ranged from $12,490 in annual income for a single individual to $25,750 for a family of four.

Importantly, this figure does not account for cost of living, so California’s higher average income means fewer families fall below the fixed poverty line threshold. For this reason, the Census Bureau also produces what is known as a “Supplemental Poverty Measure,” which does attempt to control for differences in housing and other costs. According to this measure, California jumps to the worst poverty in the nation.

This is the vicious cycle of what economists refer to as ‘multiplier effects.’ California’s economy has grown based on our physical, environmental, cultural, and human capital. Housing construction falls short of housing demand generated by that economic growth. Vacancy rates fall and this drives up the cost of housing, which in turn reduces mobility and turnover of our existing housing stock. Tighter housing supply creates a more competitive housing market as the economy continues to expand and prices rise disproportionately compared to other states.

Housing affordability suffers and people spend increasing shares of their income on higher housing costs, so more families become rent and mortgage burdened. The economy suffers further as fewer dollars are available to spend on other goods and services, and people end up living in overcrowded housing, with more people living in poverty, and more people living on the streets.

Another important consequence of this cycle is that the homeownership rate, remains depressed. The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finance (hereafter “SCF”)xix consistently shows us every three years that it is released that homeownership is the one proven vehicle for wealth accumulation and intergenerational social mobility. In the 2019 release, homeowners still held all the wealth in this country. While the typical net worth of a U.S. family was $121,700, this was because the typical homeowner in 2019 had a median net worth of $255,000 while renters had just $6,300 in net worth. In fact, homeownership status was more indicative of wealth than even education – the typical renter has less than half as much net worth as the typical high school dropout, and this has been the case since the SCF began in 1989. In other words, homeownership is the proven route towards improving one’s life and the lives of one’s children, but California’s failure to address its housing shortage means that fewer families are able get started down that path. We outline below how these dynamics impact California’s Black and Latinx communities particularly hard.

IV. The Impact of Underbuilding on Fair Housing
As discussed heretofore, the lack of residential construction reduces affordability which then depresses homeownership and wealth creation. California was still maintaining a double- digit homeownership gap with the rest of the United States by the end of 2020, but there are also significant disparities within California across racial and ethnic lines that show Black and Latinx households bearing the brunt of the housing shortage.

For example, while homeownership rates for the state as a whole are roughly 55% compared with 65% for the country as a whole, white homeownership in California was 60.2% in 2019—only slightly behind the U.S. average. However, homeownership rates for Black and Latinx households were just 36.8% and 44.1% respectively in the same year. That is a gap of nearly 30% between Black and white homeownership and a 20% gap between Latinx and white homeownership. And unfortunately, this gap has shown few signs of progress in the nearly 15 years of Census American Community Survey data that allows us to track this metric on a consistent basis. Indeed, even though gaps persist nationwide between white and Black/Latinx homeownership, those gaps are exacerbated and enlarged by California’s housing shortage which affects these communities disproportionately.

Therefore, although it is discouraging, it is perhaps unsurprising that the typical Black and Latinx family across all levels of income and education, which have not been able to achieve the same levels of homeownership, are only doing slightly better than the typical high school dropout and that the 2019 SCF was actually the first year that the typical Black and Latinx net worth exceeded those with no high school diploma. The housing shortage creates tremendous issues for housing affordability and homeownership in general, it is specifically harmful to Black and Latinx families in California.

V. The Impacts of Underbuilding on the California Economy For those that work in or care about housing, the impetus for addressing the supply shortage is clear. However, the housing crisis poses a much broader threat for the California economy at large and that should help to elevate housing as a priority for the state as a whole.

When the erosion of affordability is more extreme in California than elsewhere, it creates a stronger incentive for Californians to consider moving to more affordable areas where they can attain a higher standard of living.

For many years, California has been able to succeed economically despite its housing challenges. However, even before the pandemic, the twin structural issues of affordability and supply were becoming harder to shrug off. Take employment growth as a prime example.

Although one of the hardest hit states by the Great Recession, California had one of the most robust economic recoveries in the nation when the expansion began. The state was creating jobs across the spectrum of wages and industries, and indeed, across geographies as well. However, as rents and prices also picked up momentum as demand for housing rebounded, and the effects of the housing crisis are becoming more evident in the economy at large.

Specifically, between 2012 and 2016, California was averaging between 2.5% and 3.5% growth in its nonfarm payrolls. However, beginning in 2017, job growth dipped to just 2.1% and dropped further to just 1.5% in 2019. Some blamed the late stage of the economic cycle for this slowdown because job growth is always expected to slow down as an economy reaches full employment. Fewer workers who want jobs are sitting on the sidelines, so a lack of available labor can stifle growth even as demand for products/services increased.xx That logic is sound and indeed is borne out by the recent slowdown in job growth nationwide. However, what full employment cannot explain is why California has consistently failed to outperform the U.S. since 2017. Between 2012 and 2016, California was consistently growing faster than the rest of the U.S. by an average of 100 basis points per month—averaging

3.5% growth when the U.S. was experiencing 2.5% growth, and so on. In fact, prior to September 2018, California had outperformed the rest of the U.S. economically for 78 months consecutively—a period of more than 6 years. Since then, California has averaged the identical growth rate to the nation as a whole and has even dipped below the nation several times. Thus, while full employment can explain why job growth was slowing down prior to the recession in absolute terms, it does not offer insights into California’s inability to outpace other states.

Here, again, the chronic shortfall of housing construction in California is implicated as a prime suspect. As early as 2017, major employers were sounding the alarm bells on the impacts of housing affordability (or lack thereof) on their ability to recruit talent.xxi Not only do high housing costs make California less attractive to recruits from out of state, a recent study by USC and published in the Los Angeles Business Journal notes that they also boost commute times as workers are force to live farther and farther from their place of employment. This reduces their quality of life and potentially impacts their performance at work as well, so businesses are subject to negative effects of the housing shortage as well. Many large companies like Apple and Facebook have begun to pledge billions of dollars to address this lack of housing for their workers.

Over the short run, businesses and the economy have been impacted by making recruitment/retention harder or more costly, but they are also becoming starved for skilled workers. In fact, 2020 was the first time since the Census Bureau began tracking state population 120 years ago that California’s population declined.xxii This is due, at least in part, to the housing crisis. The California Association of REALTORS® annual consumer survey consistently finds that homeownership is still synonymous with the American Dream, with more than 70% still reporting that homeownership is important to them as recently as 2019. This is because homeownership is the one proven way that American families generate wealth in this nation. In addition to wealth creation, homeownership has positive and significant impacts on important outcomes like protecting yourself from rising rents in the future, improving your child’s likelihood to graduate from high school, attend college, or be healthier even after controlling for other socio-economic factors.

And, although some advocate for alternative forms of wealth creation, by investing in the stock market as an example, it is important to note, as the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies put so eloquently, “While studies simulating the financial returns to owning and renting find that renting is often more likely to be beneficial, in practice renters rarely accumulate any wealth.”xxiii As housing affordability has deteriorated and homeownership stagnates, a larger swath of California’s population base has been locked out of these broader benefits.

This offers one explanation for the decline in population last year. The exodus from California has been growing each year as the housing crisis has gotten worse. Net domestic out migration accelerated in 2020 to more than 260,000 and more than 1.3 million have left since 2010. And, although California’s critics point to the state’s oppressive income tax regime or hostility towards business in general, the demographics of those who choose to leave tell a different story. The vast majority of California’s out-migration is amongst individuals making less than $100,000 per year.

Given how progressive California’s income tax structure is, these statistics are exactly the opposite of what one would expect to find if it were taxes, rather than housing costs, that were driving people to other states because the lower your income, the less exposed you are to California’s high-income taxes. Instead, these are the Californians who are struggling the most with housing costs that are leaving. This view is supported by the fact that a majority of people who leave California go to either Texas, Nevada, or Arizona. These states are not particularly booming from an economic perspective, at least not in relation to California. But these states are home to housing markets that are both much more affordable and maintain higher levels of homeownership, and thus, can still offer the ability to achieve the American Dream. In addition, the pandemic will likely cause these forces to accelerate further as workers are no longer tied to California employment centers given that at least some portion of the recent surge in telecommuting will be sustained.

Thus, not only has the housing crisis already begun to stymie economic growth, but businesses are suffering and that suggests increasing challenges for economic growth moving forward. That is why housing is about much more than just housing, but the economy at large. If California cannot begin to reverse course on housing supply to improve housing affordability, California will likely struggle to remain in the top 10% of state economies. More importantly, the housing crisis is likely to make the job much more difficult for the economy. An examination of out-migration by occupation shows that California is losing key segments of the population needed to build that economy including teachers, firefighters, police, and middle managers. We are also seeing significant outflows of construction workers and tradespeople—workers that California desperately needs to get any new housing constructed.

California could take heed of the Japanese experience—shrinking populations is a significant challenge to overcome economically. At its most basic level, the size of the economy, or what economists refer to as gross domestic product, is simply the product of worker productivity—how much output each worker can produce individually—and how many workers are producing. When the population shrinks, it takes a lot of improvement in worker productivity to offset it. It is a basic lesson, but one California policymakers would do well to take seriously.

VI. Many Recommended Policy Solutions
Based upon the implications of the crisis in terms of remote working, the uptick in outmigration, and the headwinds to economic growth California was already experiencing before the pandemic, it has become more urgent that ever to get serious about California’s chronic underbuilding of housing. And while it will take an all-of-the-above approach, there are several areas that, collectively, have the potential to help to bring housing affordability under control so that more families have the ability to achieve the American Dream here in California. Although by no means an exhaustive list, this section aims to bolster the conversation around what is needed and how California can address this crisis using a variety of disparate tools at its disposal.

At the state level, reforming the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (hereafter “RHNA”) process is a good place to start. Every planning cycle, the major regions in California look at demographic and economic trends to determine how much housing they will need in coming years. However, there are many ways that this process can be improved to yield more housing production, including making tougher requirements for cities in terms of the number of units being constructed while also providing clearer rules for how the estimated regional need should be allocated. In addition to establishing more realistic targets and providing for a more fair distribution of that production, there is need for a disincentive for falling short. If cities are able to underbuild with impunity, the incentive to get serious about supply is undermined. There are a variety of ways to create disincentives, but one suggestion would be to allow for more local control in areas that meet targets while enabling the state to override local opposition to new development for those cities that consistently fail to meet their targets. There are a variety of ways to create monetary and nonmonetary rewards and punishments—the important thing is to align incentives toward the desired outcome of more production and greater affordability.

California’s Environmental Quality Act (hereafter “CEQA”) is also badly in need of reform. Although well intentioned, CEQA has increasingly become an instrument aimed at derailing new housing production more so than it is about protecting the environment. Allowing anonymous challenges to hold projects up in litigation for years and/or drive up the cost of a project through the costly environmental impact review (hereafter “EIR”) processes and appeals processes have significantly impacted construction. The scope of this article does not enable us to exhaustively lay out the ways that CEQA has been used as an impediment to addressing California’s supply crisis, but Chapman University and Holland & Knight recently published a report that documents how, “…CEQA clearly remains the litigation of choice for housing opponents and that this litigation is a major contributor to California's housing crisis.”xxiv One important finding worth highlighting is that CEQA is not primarily used as a tool to preserve pristine wildlife and important ecosystems, but instead is aimed in the majority of cases at high- density, multi-family apartments and condos in existing urban neighborhoods.xxv Currently, in-fill development still requires a full EIR. Does that need to be the case? California already waves CEQA requirements for supportive housing projects. Could a similar approach be applied to projects that meet a minimum percentage of inclusionary units? These are levers that our policymakers can pull, which could help to alleviate some of the largest obstacles to housing production, but whether these changes, or others, CEQA reform is another obvious source of potential housing supply. California’s environment remains one of its biggest assets and we should protect it, but our environmental policy should actually preserve our environment instead of kicking away the ladder of social mobility.

By-right construction around transit similar to what was proposed in SB-50 a few years ago remains an attractive option as well, by connecting jobs, housing, and transit together, but concentrating exclusively on 10-story apartment complexes is not required. Density is often considered a 4-letter word, but there are many ways to achieve density in a less intrusive way than relying solely on large multi-family projects. To be clear, we need more large, multi-family projects, but we can also achieve significant headway on our shortfall with more modest approaches mixed in as well. Accessory dwelling units (hereafter “ADUs”) are a prime example.

While many residents might lament a large project sprouting up in their neighborhood, a small unit in the back of a single-family lot is less off-putting. However, if even a small fraction of the single-family housing stock built an ADU, it would result in a significant number of new housing units. For example, if just 2% of California’s roughly 6.7 million owner-occupied single-family homes constructed an ADU, that would equate to more than 130,000 new units—more than California’s entire annual production the past few years. If 10% built ADUs, it would translate to almost 700,000 homes. These orders of magnitude are significant.

California could also consider reviving public housing. Although the track record for public housing in the past—at least for California’s Black and Latinx communities—has been less than exemplary, there is still a theoretical argument that one could make for public housing done right, the way that it was for what servicemembers returning home from World War II, could be a significant tool in enabling more folks to achieve housing affordability and get on a path toward homeownership and intergenerational mobility.

At the local level, there are a variety of things that can be done to reduce the cost and burden of constructing new homes. Zoning could be eased to allow residential development in more areas. Permit processes could be made more transparent and permit fees could be reduced.

Cities could consider alternative sources of revenue that do not translated into higher costs of construction and higher housing prices. For example, assessing developer, impact, and other construction-related fees to a per square foot basis over a per unit basis would remove the incentive to build larger and more expensive homes to spread the fees across. Parking requirements could be loosened. Density bonuses could be extended to projects that meet certain goals for affordability and inclusion. Public lands could be made available for new homes. Each of these measures would have a positive, incremental effect that could collectively add up to a significant improvement in housing production in California.

In addition to these various policy measures, Californians themselves need to get serious about the housing shortfall, and to connect the dots on the consequences of inaction for their families, their housing options, their quality of life, and their economy. If more Californians demanded housing production, policy makers would approve more housing projects. There is a lot of work that needs to take place at the individual level and in the private sector. Groups like the Californians for Homeownership have begun to hold cities accountable to the law when it comes to approving new housing, but much more needs to be done in this arena as well.

Ultimately, none of these solutions or the many others that we have not mentioned here, will solve California’s housing crisis on its own. Instead, we need to embrace a variety of policies and attitudes that can add up to a comprehensive solution.

VII. Conclusions and Recommendations
California has a housing crisis. For decades, our economy has been one of the top performers nationwide while our housing production falls way behind. As a result, the housing market seizes up with fewer vacant homes, existing housing turning over less frequently, and fierce competition for what little housing remains available whether to rent or buy. This leads to a deterioration in housing affordability that has caused California’s homeownership rate to dwindle over time and to diverge starkly from the rest of the United States when it comes to delivering on the American Dream. In addition, the unaffordability of housing in California creates deep financial distress where a disproportionate number of families end up living in overcrowded housing, spending too much of their income on rents and mortgages, living below the poverty line, or outright living on the streets. This is particularly true for California’s Black and Latinx families, who have borne the brunt of the housing shortage, but that said, no group escapes the pernicious effects playing out across the state.

The good news is that we have identified the problem and there is broad consensus that we have made the correct diagnosis: California needs to increase its supply of housing to get housing affordability under control. The other good news is that there are a variety of treatments at our disposal to begin rooting out the disease. Some of these can be pursued at the state level and others can be implemented by cities and counties, and yet others will still need to be driven by public opinion. No one policy solution will be a panacea, so we need an all-of-the-above approach because one thing is abundantly clear: it is time to get serious about California’s housing crisis. Affordability has already deteriorated to the point where it is stifling broader economic growth and forcing many more Californians to leave the state to achieve homeownership elsewhere. With the crisis offering workers more flexibility in where they live while also making our homes more important to us than ever before, it has become more urgent than ever to provide adequate housing. If we fail, it is not just the American Dream that is at stake, our future economy and prosperity as a state are threatened.

VIII. Endnotes

i Reaser, Lynn, “Opening the Door to San Diego’s Lower Housing Costs,” Fermanian Business & Economic Institute at Point Loma Nazarene University, 2015.
ii Levy, Stephen, “California’s Housing Crisis Demands an All of the Above Strategy,” Published by California Forward, April 20, 2016.
iii Chiland, Elijah, “California’s next governor wants to build 3.5 million new homes by 2025,” Curbed Los Angeles, November 8, 2018.
iv Metcalf, Ben, “California’s Housing Future: Challenges and Opportunities, Final Statewide Housing Assessment 2025,” Published by California Department of Housing and Community Development, February 2018. v The number of residential housing units permitted was sourced from the California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF); Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB); and accessed via Moody’s Analytics. vi Taylor, Mac, “California’s High Housing Costs: Causes and Consequences,” California Legislative Analyst’s Office, March 17, 2015.
vii U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census: 1950-2000; & U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey, 2005- 2020.
viii California nonfarm employment was sourced from the California Employment Development Departments Labor Market Information Division, Industry Employment – Official Estimates, 1990-2019. ix Homeowner and rental vacancy rates by state were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey.
x Overcrowding, defined as more than 1 person per room, was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey.
xi Housing turnover is estimated using the number of existing single-family homes sold each year as reported by the California Association of REALTORS® in their Annual Historical Data Summary and the number of existing single-family owned homes in California from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey.
xii The median sales price of existing single-family homes in the United States is reported by the National Association of REALTORS® each month.
xiii The median sales price of existing single-family homes in California is reported by the California Association of REALTORS® each month.
xiv The Housing Affordability Index for the United States and California are calculated and published by the National and California Associations of REALTORS®, respectively, each quarter and are determined by comparing the percentage of households who can afford the median priced home such that if they put down a 20% down payment, financed the home at current market interest rates, and paid 1.38% in property taxes, special assessments, and other local add on taxes, that the payment would consume 30% of the household’s gross pay, or less. xv Rent and mortgage burdened households are classified as households spending at least 35% of their income on housing costs and are reported in the U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey. xvi Homeless rate and homeless count estimates by state were obtained from the National Alliance to End Homelessness, “State of Homelessness: 2020 Edition,” Published in 2020. xvii The California and U.S. traditional poverty rates were sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey.
xviii U.S.Census Bureau, “Table 5. Number and Percentage of People in Poverty by State: 3-Year Average Over:
2017, 2018, and 2019,” 2019 Supplemental Poverty Measure. xix The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances is released every three years and provides a comprehensive look at household balance sheets across a variety of socio-economic and demographic characteristics, including homeownership. The most recent study was publish in 2020 and covers consumers in the 2019 calendar year. xx State and national nonfarm jobs data were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES).
xxi Raphael Bostic, “The Affordable Housing Crisis in Los Angeles: An Employer Perspective,” Los Angeles Business Council, April 2017.
xxii U.S. Census Bureau, State Population Estimates.
xxiii Christopher E. Herbert, Daniel T. McCue, and Rocio Sanchez-Moyano, “Is Homeownership Still an Effective Means of Building Wealth for Low-income and Minority Households? (Was it Ever?),” Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, September 2013.
xxiv Hernandez, Jennifer, “California Getting In Its Own Way: In 2018, Housing Was Targeted in 60% of Anti- Development Lawsuits,” Edited by Joel Kotkin, Published by the University of Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, December 2019.
xxv Ibid.

Camarillo City CouncilJuly 10, 2024

Camarillo City Council
July 10, 2024