PROPOSAL FOR PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
Market Analysis for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan Area
Submitted to:
CITY OF CAMARILLO, CALIFORNIA
SUBMITTED BY:
October 7, 2024 (revised November 14, 2024)
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC .
YORBA LINDA, CA • www.natelsondale.com
O: 714.692.9596 • F: 714.692.9597
Table of Contents
1. COVER LETTER ................................................................................................................................1
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................2
3. PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS ....................................................................................................4
4. PROJECT APPROACH AND WORK SCHEDULE TIMELINE .................................................................. 14
5. COST PROPOSAL ........................................................................................................................... 18
6. ABILITY TO MEET CITY’S INSURANCE REQUIREMENTS ................................................................... 18
7. DISCLOSURE OF FINANCIAL INTERESTS .......................................................................................... 19
8. NO PAST, CURRENT, OR PENDING LITIGATION .............................................................................. 20
9. SIGNATURE BINDING THE FIRM TO THIS OFFER ............................................................................. 20
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
1 1. COVER LETTER
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
P.O. Box 489
Yorba Linda, CA 92886
(714) 692-9596 phone / (714) 692-9597 fax
E-mail: [email protected]
www.natelsondale.com
October 7, 2024
City of Camarillo via PlanetBids portal
Dear Colleagues:
In response to the City’s request, The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) is pleased to submit this proposal to prepare a Market Analysis for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan Area for the City of Camarillo. TNDG is a national economic consulting firm established in southern California in 1974. Our practice focuses on planning and implementation of strategies for local economic development, and often involves direct linkages between a community’s growth plans and its real estate development potentials. In this regard, we have a strong understanding both of local real estate markets and of the larger regional economic trends that drive demand for commercial, industrial, and residential land use.
We have extensive project experience in Camarillo and Ventura County, including previous assignments for the City as addressed in our proposal. Our other local clients include the County of Ventura, and the cities of Oxnard, Ventura, Simi Valley, Santa Paula, Fillmore and Thousand Oaks.
I will personally serve as the Project Manager for this assignment, and be the primary point of contact with the City. We very much appreciate your consideration of our team and sincerely hope we have the opportunity to serve Camarillo on this exciting and pivotal project.
Respectfully submitted,
Roger Dale
Managing Principal
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
2 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) brings to this assignment over 50 years’ experience in real estate market analysis, project feasibility assessment, and local economic development advisory services. As demonstrated in the scope and diversity of previous assignments described in Section 3, the firm has an exceptional track record of identifying development opportunities and defining market-oriented municipal policies that are actionable and result in on-the-ground change.
Previous Project Experience in Camarillo and Ventura County. TNDG’s previous project experience in Ventura County includes the following assignments:
• Economic Development Strategic Plan for City of Camarillo (adopted in 2018), which included market demand forecasts for retail, office, industrial and hotel land uses; • Focused assessment of selected market conditions in Camarillo related to options for improvements to the Camarillo Springs Golf Course (beginning in 2019, with incremental updates in subsequent years);
• Economic Development Strategic Plan for City of Simi Valley (adopted in 2024), including market demand forecasts for retail, office, and industrial land uses; • Market demand and financial feasibility studies for Downtown Oxnard (2019), addressing potentials for residential, retail and mixed-use development; • Economic analysis (addressing residential and mix-use opportunities), and development community outreach to support update of Thousand Oaks Boulevard Specific Plan (2007); and • Pre-development market studies (in 2003) for Simi Valley Town Center, and adjacent hotel properties.
Key Elements of Proposed Work Scope. TNDG’s multifaceted approach to this assignment would include the following key elements:
• Appropriate integration and leveraging of findings from prior studies (including TNDG’s previous work for the City), updated to reflect current market trends and conditions; • Evaluation of the constraints (and potential mitigation measures) that may affect the realistic redevelopment potentials of the Camarillo Commons area; • Market absorption analysis based on TNDG’s proprietary demand forecasting models for retail, office, industrial, hotel and residential land uses;
• Direct outreach to the development community and particularly owners/managers in the Plan area to gain their insights on development prospects and validate the findings of TNDG’s technical studies;
• A pro forma financial analysis intended to reflect typical retail, residential and mixed-use development projects compatible with the strategic vision for Camarillo Commons; • Recommendation of actional strategies, customized to reflect the unique market opportunities identified for Camarillo Commons; and
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
3 • Clear communication of study findings and recommendations via presentations and summary reports geared to their intended audiences.
Project Coordination. Consistent with TNDG’s previous contracts with the City of Camarillo, the firm’s Managing Principal (Roger Dale) would be the project manager for this assignment and would be the primary liaison with the City of Camarillo. He would be responsible for all public and stakeholder presentations for this contract. All other personnel included on the proposed team (Joe McClure, Alan Levenson and Joe Collins) were directly involved in TNDG’s previous contracts with the City and are highly familiar with the Ventura County development market.
Expected Outcomes. TNDG’s work for this contract would provide a comprehensive, market-based framework for updating the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan (which would be completed under a separate, subsequent process). In particular, TNDG’s report would include:
• Clear identification of market-based development opportunities and constraints; • Recommendation of City policies that would be effective in attracting and incentivizing targeted development investment; and
• Summarization of the key technical issues that would need to be addressed in detail in the subsequent Strategic Plan update.
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
4 3. PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS
3a. Company Profile and Relevant Project Experience
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) brings exceptional experience in real estate oriented economic development strategic planning to this assignment. From this work, TNDG has developed nationally recognized expertise in the following key areas: 1) Retail demand analysis and tenant recruitment, 2) Revitalization and repositioning of older shopping centers, commercial corridors and downtowns, and 3) Structuring of public/private partnerships and development agreements.
An abbreviated listing of TNDG’s relevant project experience is provided below, followed by more detailed descriptions of selected assignments.
Target Area Market Assessments
Project/City Land Uses Evaluated
Downtown Revitalization Strategy
Oxnard, CA
Retail, housing, mixed-use
Thousand Oaks Boulevard Specific Plan
Thousand Oaks, CA
Housing, mixed-use
Market Demand Study for Downtown
Carpinteria, CA
Retail/restaurant
Repositioning of Simi Valley Town Center
Simi Valley, CA
Retail, hotel, entertainment, office
Repositioning of High-Vacancy Shopping Centers
San Ramon, CA
Retail/restaurant, services
Repositioning of Somersville Towne Center
Antioch, CA
Retail, housing
Repositioning Strategy for SouthBay Pavilion Mall
in Carson, CA
Retail, entertainment, housing
Repositioning strategy for Downtown
El Cajon, CA
Retail/restaurant, entertainment, housing
Downtown Specific Plan
El Segundo, CA
Retail/restaurant, services, housing
Repositioning Strategy for Downtown
Monterey Park, CA
Retail/restaurant, entertainment, housing
Downtown Vision Plan
Coronado, CA
Retail/restaurant, housing
Market Study for Research Technology Zone
Huntington Beach, CA
Office, industrial, R&D
Redevelopment of Pinole Vista Shopping Center
Pinole, CA
Retail, housing
Downtown Specific Plan
Pomona, CA
Retail/restaurant, entertainment, housing
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
5 General Plan Economic Studies
(Market Demand Studies for Commercial, Industrial and Residential Land Uses) City of Agoura Hills City of Malibu
City of Alhambra City of Monterey Park
City of Calabasas City of Ontario
City of Bakersfield City of Port Hueneme
City of Beaumont City of Redondo Beach
City of California City City of Rialto
City of Chino City of San Bernardino
City of Costa Mesa City of San Clemente
City of Fontana City of San Ramon
City of Garden Grove City of Santa Fe Springs
City of La Quinta City of Santa Monica
City of Los Angeles City of Santa Paula
City Economic Development Strategies (most of these contracts included real estate market studies to forecast demand for retail, office, industrial and hospitality uses) Anaheim
Antioch
Arvin
Bakersfield
Beaumont
Burbank
Camarillo
Canyon Lake
Carson
Coachella
Compton
Coronado
El Cajon
Escondido
Fresno
Garland (Texas)
Kyle (Texas)
Los Angeles
Menifee
Modesto
Ontario
Palm Desert
Phoenix (Arizona)
Pinole
San Francisco
San Pablo
Simi Valley
Stockton
Tracy
Ventura
Vista
Real Estate Market Studies Completed for Municipal Planning Processes:
Azusa, California: Retail, Hotel, Office and Residential Market Analysis for Gold Line Station Areas.
TNDG completed market demand forecasts and financial feasibility analyses for transit-oriented development near the two planned Gold Line stations in Azusa. TNDG’s work guided land use, zoning and development density policies and was also the basis for a market-oriented implementation strategy for the planning areas.
Downtown Core and Corridors Specific Plan, Fullerton, California. TN DG served as the project economist for the Fullerton Downtown Core and Corridors Specific Plan process. The Plan area covers a large portion of the City and includes 15 distinct subareas. TNDG’s work included market and financial
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
6 analyses to identify future development opportunities in each subarea and an implementation strategy for the Plan.
Ontario, California: Analysis of Market Absorption Potentials and Related Socioeconomic Impacts of Meredith International Centre Specific Plan. TNDG was retained by the City of Ontario to evaluate realistic market potentials and related fiscal impacts for the Meredith International Centre - a major mixed-use project near the Ontario International Airport.
Market Analysis and Financial Pro Forma for Downtown Specific Plan, Huntington Beach, California. A s part of a Specific Plan process, TNDG completed a comprehensive market absorption study for Downtown Huntington Beach. Consistent with the City’s development vision for the area, the study focused on the potentials to attract the following land uses: high-density/mixed-use residential, retail, higher-end restaurants, entertainment, hotel/B&B development, and office.
Economic/Financial Analyses for Proposed Development Projects, Santa Monica, California. O n behalf
of the City of Santa Monica, TNDG has completed economic and financial analyses (or peer reviewed applicant-submitted studies) for various projects requiring development agreements with the City.
These studies typically include the following components: value enhancement analyses (to quantify the incremental property value associated with requested development entitlements); pro forma financial analyses, fiscal impact analyses and focused market research to develop credible assumptions/inputs for the other studies. The primary purpose of the financial pro formas is to provide a basis for the negotiation of community benefits (including affordable housing) to be provided by the developers. To date, TNDG has completed economic analyses for eight proposed projects.
San Clemente, California: Citywide Commercial and Industrial Market Analysis. T NDG completed a
Citywide analysis of commercial and industrial development potentials for the City of San Clemente. The market study addressed retail, hospitality, office, business park and industrial land uses. The study was an update of a comprehensive real estate market evaluation completed by TNDG as part of a General Plan update process.
Economic Development Strategic Plans:
Simi Valley, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2024). TNDG completed a year-long economic development strategic planning process for the City of Simi Valley. This work included a target industry analysis, commercial/industrial real estate demand projections, an extensive stakeholder outreach process, and preparation of a strategic plan that leverages the City’s economic development programming through partnerships with an array of regional organizations. The plan focuses on the following strategic priorities: capitalizing on the City’s reputation for business friendliness to attract industrial firms from neighboring Los Angeles County; repositioning older retail centers and corridors by promoting opportunities for mixed-use development; and expanded collaboration with regional entrepreneurial and workforce development organizations.
Carson, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2023). D uring 2022 and 2023, TNDG led an
ambitious strategic planning effort on behalf of City of Carson to assess existing conditions, evaluate market opportunities, and engage a broad array of public and private stakeholders to define priorities and chart a detailed course of action for the City’s economic development program. The resulting Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP) is intended to guide the City’s economic direction for the
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
7 next 5-10 years, in concert with other City plans and policies addressing land use, infrastructure and workforce development. The plan places special emphasis on leveraging Carson’s unique assets, including Dignity Health Sports Park, Cal State Dominguez Hills, the Porsche Experience Center, a strong base of manufacturing firms, and an emerging cluster of cleantech businesses.
El Cajon, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2022-2023). TNDG prepared an economic development strategy plan for the City of El Cajon in east San Diego County. This work included a target industry analysis, commercial/industrial real estate demand projections, a focused stakeholder outreach process, and preparation of an action plan that leverages the City’s economic development programming through partnerships with an array of regional organizations. El Cajon’s EDSP focuses on the following strategic priorities: revitalization of retail commercial centers; maximizing land capacity for industrial development; expanding the downtown business mix; and promoting entrepreneurial development opportunities.
Antioch, California: Economic Baseline and Strategic Plans (2022). TN DG completed an economic
development baseline analysis and strategic planning process for the City of Antioch. This assignment included a target industry/cluster analysis, an extensive stakeholder outreach process, and preparation of an innovate strategic plan and implementation “tool kit.” The strategic plan is organized around eight major initiatives: Business Development Pipeline; Real Estate Development Capacity; Workforce Opportunity Initiative; Entrepreneurial Startup Assistance; Direct Project Investment (Public-Private Partnerships); Leveraging Housing Demand to Promote Economic Development; Regional Advocacy; and Resource (“War Chest”) Development.
Bakersfield, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2021). T NDG led an 18-month strategic
planning process for the City of Bakersfield, with a focus on identifying major “game-changing” investments the City could pursue with available state and federal recovery funding. TNDG’s work was completed in close coordination with the regional “Better Bakersfield, Boundless Kern” (B3K) initiative facilitated by The Brookings Institution. TNDG’s work included an industry cluster analysis, commercial/ industrial real estate market studies, and a comprehensive stakeholder outreach process (including specific engagement with the development community, industry stakeholders, and downtown business/civic leaders).
Vista, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2021). T NDG completed a nine-month
economic development strategic planning process for the City of Vista in north San Diego County. This work included a target industry analysis, commercial/industrial real estate demand projections, an extensive stakeholder outreach process, and preparation of a strategic plan that leverages the City’s economic development programming through partnerships with an array of regional organizations.
Beaumont, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2019). TN DG completed a detailed
Economic Development Strategic Plan, including a target industry analysis and commercial/ industrial real estate market forecast, for the City of Beaumont. The Plan focuses on leveraging the City’s strategic location in the eastern Inland Empire, available land resources, skilled resident workforce, and quality- of-life amenities.
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
8 Camarillo, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2018). TNDG completed a detailed Economic Development Strategic Plan, including a target industry analysis and commercial/ industrial real estate market forecast, for the City of Camarillo. The Plan focuses on improving the City’s business/development friendliness, maintaining the strength of the City’s retail shopping districts, leveraging the emerging cluster of technology start-ups in Ventura County, and pursuing placemaking investments as part of a larger focus on economic vitality.
Palm Desert, California: Economic Development Strategic Plan (2018). T NDG completed a detailed Economic Development Strategic Plan, including a target industry analysis and commercial/industrial real estate market forecast, for the City of Palm Desert. The Plan focuses on leveraging the City’s strategic location within the Coachella Valley and its well-established reputation as a center for tourism, retail trade, and higher education. The implementation plan includes a business incubator/accelerator focused the Valley’s emerging technology cluster.
Ventura County, California: Economic Vitality Strategic Plan (2017). TNDG completed a comprehensive Economic Vitality Strategic Plan for the County of Ventura. The year-long effort included the following components: an extensive analysis of the current state of the Ventura County economy; an innovative Economic Impact Analysis that gathers and analyzes relevant data sets to quantify the impact of County governmental operations on the local economy; a detailed industry cluster analysis; and extensive stakeholder outreach. Consistent with longstanding community values, the Plan focuses on advancing economic vitality while carefully protecting the region’s amenity-rich, high quality of life environment. 3b. Organizational Structure and Corporate Culture
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) is a California corporation. TNDG is a “boutique” firm not only in terms of size (total team of five professionals) but also in terms of philosophy and approach. While we effectively compete with much larger firms for prominent contracts, we have a decided preference for mid-sized projects requiring a “hands on” approach and genuine strategic thinking. In this regard, the firm’s principal personally manages every contract and maintains primary contact with the client. As our references will attest, exceptional responsiveness to the unique needs of each client is a hallmark of our approach. This commitment to the highest level of “client care” consistently results actionable work products that are completed on time and within budget, and planning processes that are “hassle free” to our clients and their constituencies.
In addition to our long track record in real estate market analysis and economic development strategic planning, TNDG also maintains an active role in supporting California’s economic development community and advancing best practices within the profession. In this regard, the firm (in 2018) took the lead on behalf of the California Association for Local Economic Development (CALED) and the California Academy for Economic Development (CAED) on the implementation of a California-specific training and certification program for economic development professionals (the “ACE” program launched in 2019).
The firm’s Managing Principal (Roger Dale) currently teaches the annual course on economic development strategic planning as part of the ACE program.
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
9 3c. Client References
Project: Economic Development Strategic Plan for City of Simi Valley (included commercial and industrial real estate demand analyses) Client Contact: Linda Swan, Assistant City Manager
City of Simi Valley
(805) 583-6701
[email protected]
Dates: 2023-2024
Project: Market Demand and Tenant Mix Analyses to Support Revitalization of High- Vacancy Shopping Centers
City of San Ramon, CA
Client Contact: Cindy Yee, AICP
Senior Planner, City of San Ramon
(925) 973-2562
[email protected]
Dates: 2022-2024
Project: Economic Development Strategic Plan for City of El Cajon, CA (included strategy for intensifying mix of dining, entertainment and residential uses in downtown)
Client Contact: Anthony Shute, Community Development Director City of El Cajon
(619) 441-1705
[email protected]
Dates: 2021-2022
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
10 3d. Resumes of Key Personnel
Roger Dale – Managing Principal, TNDG
Project Role: Mr. Dale will serve as Principal-in-Charge and Project Manager for the assignment. In this capacity, he will be responsible for primary client liaison, day-to-day completion of work assignments and products, and coordination of the overall project team. Mr. Dale will serve as the lead presenter/ facilitator at all public meetings for the assignment. Mr. Dale has been a project manager with TNDG for 36 years and managed TNDG’s work on all of the previous TNDG projects listed in this proposal.
Experience: Roger Dale has been affiliated with The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) since 1988 and currently serves as the firm’s managing principal. His background encompasses the fields of real estate development, economic development, regional economic analysis, environmental and land use policy, financial forecasting, and renewable energy. His project experience with TNDG includes preparation of regional-scale economic development strategic plans, real estate market forecasting, demographic research and modeling, fiscal impact analysis, cost/benefit assessment, redevelopment, business retention/attraction, and workforce development program assessments.
Over the past 25 years, a significant focus of Mr. Dale’s work has been on the development of cluster- based economic and workforce development strategies. In this regard, he has managed industry cluster analyses and developed related retention/expansion/attraction plans for the following clients: the cities of Anaheim, Los Angeles, Camarillo, Bakersfield, Burbank, Escondido, Vista, and San Buenaventura, California; the County of Kern, California; the County of Yuma, Arizona; the High Desert Regional Economic Development Authority (San Bernardino County, California); the Forward Greensboro (North Carolina) Economic Development Partnership; the Tri-Cities (Tennessee/Virginia) Economic Development Alliance; the County of Osceola, Florida; the County of Larimer, Colorado; and the cities of Garland and Kyle, Texas.
Reflecting his longstanding interest in sustainability issues, he serves on the Board of the Roberts Environmental Center – a leading publisher of global climate change research and the nation’s foremost analyst of corporate sustainability reporting. He has recently completed feasibility studies and related economic development strategies for solar energy projects in California, Arizona and China. He has prepared more than 100 economic analyses as part of environmental impact reports.
Education: Mr. Dale received his B.A. cum laude in Economics from Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, California. He also holds a master's degree in Resource and Environmental Economics from the University of California at Riverside.
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
11 Joe McClure – Senior Associate, TNDG
Project Role: Mr. McClure will be a principal participant throughout the process, including the baseline data collection, pro forma financial analysis, stakeholder engagement and final report preparation.
Experience: Joe McClure has served as principal or in other key roles in land economics research and advisory-services organizations for over 35 years. During this period, Joe’s practice has focused on the following outputs:
• Economic development strategic focus: consolidating views on a region’s economic development targets, workforce, issues, and approaches, integrating target industries into the local economy, and relating a region’s existing economic base to its competitive region. • Market analyses with fiscal and strategic components: highest and best use analysis, analysis of rapidly growing trade areas, cash flow and development strategy analysis, fiscal benefits of development.
• Fiscal/economic analyses with a strategic component: impacts on the business community and tax receipts from freeway and other road projects, and assessing redevelopment prospects of under- performing areas.
• Special research projects, including studies of local labor forces and employer-employee relations, economic impacts of bicycle recreation, and transit behaviors and opinions in rural regions.
Mr. McClure’s multidisciplinary background incorporates many phases of the community and real estate development process: economic analysis and strategy development, market and financial feasibility assessment, and planning and design. Joe has a M.S. in Urban Planning, in a program that emphasized regional economics, from the University of Arizona and completed additional postgraduate work in economic geography at UA. He has a B.S. in Architecture from the University of Cincinnati. Mr. McClure is a registered architect in Arizona and a member of the Western Regional Science Association (WRSA)— an international group of economic geographers, and the Arizona Association for Economic Development (AAED). He has presented papers on business and economic development issues at economic development conferences, has served as Adjunct Lecturer at the University of Arizona in the Geography and Regional Development program, and on ULI Advisory/Technical Services Teams.
McClure served as a Civil Engineering Officer in the U.S. Air Force.
Education: Joe has an M.S. in Urban Planning, in a program that emphasized regional economics, from the University of Arizona and completed additional post-graduate work in economic geography at UA. He has a B.S. in Architecture from the University of Cincinnati.
Alan Levenson – Senior Associate, TNDG
Project Role: Mr. Levenson will provide technical support throughout the process and assist with the preparation of summary reports.
Experience: Mr. Levenson brings to The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. an academic background in economic theory with particular emphasis on economic development. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Levenson spent two years as a research consultant for NEMESIS (Núcleo de Estudos Modelos Espaciais Sistêmicos), which is a research network dedicated to the study of systemic spatial models of the Brazilian economy.
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
12 A significant focus of Mr. Levenson’s work at TNDG has been on preparing regional economic impact analyses for a wide range of projects. Among others, these projects have included a major regional health care facility in Riverside, CA, a technology and education park in Tustin, CA, a business park in Victorville, CA, and a highway construction interchange project in Pima County, AZ. These analyses have involved modeling various projects’ short-term (construction-phase) and permanent (annually recurring) benefits to the regional economy. The benefits have been summarized by estimating a project’s impact on total gross output, value added, earnings, and employment in the region. As part of this work, Mr.
Levenson has experience with the major economic impact modeling software packages, including the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS) and the IMPLAN program.
Mr. Levenson has managed the preparation of a number of regional economic development plans, with a particular focus on industry “cluster” strategies. This work has involved a wide range of activities: from performing quantitative/ statistical analysis to more qualitative analysis, including conducting numerous interviews with key players of potential clusters. Mr. Levenson has participated in industry cluster studies for the following clients: the Forward Greensboro (North Carolina) Economic Development Partnership, the Tri-Cities Tennessee Cluster Study (Tennessee), the Yuma Private Industry Council (Arizona), and the City of San Buenaventura (California).
Mr. Levenson also has a significant amount of experience in fiscal impact analyses, retail market analyses, and real estate development feasibility analyses.
Education: Mr. Levenson joined TNDG 24 years ago, after receiving his B.A. with honors in Economics and Political Science from the University of California at Riverside. Mr. Levenson’s undergraduate studies included additional coursework in applied mathematics related to economic analysis. He also holds a Master’s in Business Administration degree, with a concentration in Real Estate Finance, from UCLA’s Anderson School of Management.
Joe Collins – Research Associate, TNDG
Project Role: Mr. Collins will support the project team with field research, data compilation and GIS mapping.
Experience: Joseph Collins serves as a Research Associate for TNDG. Over the years, his professional career has involved him in a variety of both private and public projects in the Midwest and Southwest US. His varied experience includes: fiscal and land economic feasibility analysis, geospatial and descriptive data analytics, graphic presentation, market analysis, and the practice of urban planning and development, as summarized below.
• Market Analysis of Greater Phoenix Metropolitan Area for Industrial, Multifamily, Office, and Retail Real Estate Inventory.
• Analyzing required development improvements and associated costs pertaining to large tracts of land planned for single-family residential subdivisions and planned industrial pad sites. • Analyzing costs/benefits of single-family residential development versus various commercial development options within municipalities.
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
13 • Analyzing the costs/benefits of annexation of established residential subdivisions. • Conducting land use analysis and absorption studies, and real estate appraisal and market analyses. • Geospatially analyzing building, property, land use, zoning, parking, traffic, demographic, economic, financial, tax, and other associated qualitative/quantitative data for various projects. • Developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) relational parcel database for various properties located in a downtown area.
• Providing graphic support in the creation of various reports, exhibits, presentations, and other associated media used to present to the public, various boards and commissions, city councils, non- profit associations, and private clients.
• Providing project coordination for the creation of an interactive website for departmental customer service.
• Conducting research and technical analysis to evaluate findings and/or to take action on various real estate development applications, land use decisions, and processing other regulatory actions associated with the development of real estate.
• Designing marketing and relocation packages for potential businesses looking to purchase and/or lease property.
• Reviewing construction plans for conformance with applicable city regulations, policies, and requirements.
Education: Mr. Collins obtained a M.B.A. from Grand Canyon University in Phoenix, Arizona, a M.S. in Regional and Community Planning from Kansas State University in Manhattan, Kansas, and a B.S. in Geography/Community Planning from Kansas State University. In addition, he has completed coursework for general real estate appraisal at the Arizona School of Real Estate and Business in Scottsdale, Arizona.
3e. Financial Stability of the Firm
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) has a 50-year track record of service to the real estate development community and to municipal economic development clients. During this time, the firm has consistently completed all contracts within budget. The following banking and accounting references can speak to the financial stability of the firm:
Business Banking Contact: First Bank
Attention: Jackie Carrasco
18431 Yorba Linda Boulevard, Suite 2
Yorba Linda, CA 92886
(714) 223-1100
Certified Public Accountant: David C. Kennedy, CPA
Kennedy & Kennedy
1700 North E Street, Suite 201
San Bernardino, CA 92405
(909) 886-5048
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
14 4. PROJECT APPROACH AND WORK SCHEDULE TIMELINE
4a. Project Approach and Methodologies
A key assumption within TNDG’s project approach, below, is that references in the RFP to certain technical matters including transportation considerations, physical conditions, assessment of infrastructure, flood hazards, and the like, will be addressed at a preliminary level applying the expertise within the TNDG team. This preliminary assessment will include identifying those relevant technical matters that would be expected to be addressed in additional detail by specialized consultants as part of a subsequent update of the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan.
The Project Approach headings below follow the Scope of Work outline in the RFP.
1. Existing conditions assessment
TNDG will review the existing Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan as a point of departure from which to address and update the existing conditions listed in the RFP, including:
• Physical conditions, ownership and related information as specified in the RFP, • Land-use conflicts,
• Parking (overall and as related to specific current uses), • Administrative conditions such as zoning,
• Flood hazards,
• The status of capital improvements proposed in the Strategic Plan, and • Market trends and conditions at the time of the original plan that would have influenced recommendations for revitalization.
As part of the existing conditions assessment, TNDG will prepare an inventory of parcels, including property ownership, contact information (name, email, and phone number), business owner, representative handling the real estate, land use, and physical conditions using tables, maps, and photos.
2. Constraints analysis
The constraints analysis will address existing conditions, as addressed in scope of work item #1 above, specifically in relation to how these conditions may tend to work against revitalization efforts, and/or require investment, in various forms, to mitigate them.
3. Analysis of market conditions
TNDG understands that the focus of this analysis is to “facilitate redevelopment of the Camarillo Commons area to ensure its long-term viability.” TNDG’s analysis will also be designed to recognize the original vision in the Strategic Plan of, “a pedestrian-oriented center with retail shops, restaurants, live theatre, plazas, entertainment uses, and a variety of housing with a mix of product types and densities. . . [so that] the Camarillo Commons area would become a destination for both visitors and residents, attracting people and families to spend the day shopping, dining, and gathering at special events.” (Quotations are from the RFP.)
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
15 TNDG’s analysis will also take advantage of prior work in Camarillo conducted by the firm, including:
• TNDG’s assessment of selected market conditions in Camarillo related to options for improvements to the Camarillo Springs Golf Course, beginning in 2019 and with incremental updates in subsequent years.
• The Camarillo Economic Development Strategic Plan (EDSP), prepared by TNDG in 2018, which included the following chapters/topics that (along with unpublished data files). TNDG will use as a basis for supplemental, initial research to begin the process of updating the analysis of market conditions for uses relevant to Camarillo Commons revitalization:
o Demographic profile of Camarillo,
o Retail, hotel, and office/industrial real estate market analysis, o Industry cluster analysis, and
o Assessment of initiatives for implementing the EDSP, including particularly those related to the City’s fiscal strength, encouraging optimal land use development (including revitalizing key commercial districts), increasing tourism activity, and placemaking activities.
In anticipation of potentially viable uses within the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan area, TNDG will assess market conditions in the plan area and its surroundings for, at a minimum, “core” activities such as retail, restaurant, office, and hotels.
Building on the baseline economic analysis, the real estate market study will quantify immediate and longer-term development opportunities within the Plan area, and identify policy measures necessary to achieve these potentials. The market analysis will provide an important “reality check” on stakeholder expectations regarding future development in the Plan area, and will also inform the consultant team’s implementation recommendations.
Utilizing CoStar data, TNDG will profile existing market conditions in the study area in terms of current vacancy levels and lease rates, historic and recent development/absorption trends, and prevailing land values. Where appropriate, market conditions in the study area will be compared to regional benchmarks.
Given that implementation of the updated Strategic Plan will likely focus on redevelopment opportunities, the market study will include an evaluation of potentials for intensifying and reusing existing commercial sites. To appropriately focus the market study effort, TNDG would evaluate input from property owners/managers and also coordinate with City staff early in the process to identify key sites or parcels within the Plan area where initial redevelopment could most effectively serve as a catalyst for reinvestment in the overall Plan area. TNDG’s market analysis will include the following land use categories:
• Retail/restaurant/entertainment
• Office and local services
• Industrial (secondary emphasis in market study, mostly for context) • Housing (various densities and product types, including market-rate and affordable) • Mixed-use development incorporating combinations of the above land uses
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
16 Consistent with the methodology used by TNDG for the 2018 EDSP process, the demand projections for each land use will be based on TNDG’s proprietary demand forecasting models. The projections will be phased over a 20-year forecast horizon and expressed in terms of potential absorption of dwelling units, commercial square feet, and associated acres by year.
The Strategic Plan also addressed the desirability of a performing arts (or related use) center and also a public plaza as activities/facilities to support redevelopment. TNDG will revisit the feasibility of these kinds of uses in relation to current market conditions (particularly with regard to the potential relationship with the most likely/viable core activities) as well as the context of the Strategic Plan that inspired the inclusion of these uses at that time.
TNDG will address the presence of existing institutional uses (for example churches and public-service buildings), identified as potentially incompatible activities in the original Strategic Plan, both in terms of how they could be accommodated within updated redevelopment strategies and their likely future at their present locations as redevelopment of the area proceeds.
4. Outreach plan for engaging key business and property owners/representatives TNDG will coordinate identifying key contacts with City staff, initially based on public records, prior engagement with the City, and other channels. TNDG anticipates that most of these contacts will involve one-on-one communications, involving contacts’ preferred methods of interaction when possible and practical. In preparation for these, TNDG will coordinate contact protocols (including how to handle issues of confidentiality within the context of this study) and draft interview questions and other language for discussion with the City, and approval, prior to use. TNDG is also receptive to other communication arrangements, based on input from the City.
5. Recommendations for actionable strategies
TNDG will apply the combined skills of its consulting staff, including our backgrounds in 1) assessing revitalization target areas from the standpoint of both market demand and the financial feasibility of developing individual sites, and 2) architecture and planning, to comprehensively address the strategic framework by which to “positively influence the redevelopment of Camarillo Commons.” As the RFP notes, this would include at a minimum “recommendations on land uses, scale, density, and potential market demand.” Also, the recommendations would include a demonstration of how these categorical recommendations would interrelate holistically, leveraging one another to maximize potential results.
As specified in the RFP, recommended strategies will also reflect appropriate funding mechanisms and incentives, applied to maximize their effectiveness in mitigating barriers and otherwise encouraging development activity. In this regard, funding and incentive strategies will recognize the potential benefits of “seed” projects that could encourage related desired development, because they will draw supporting uses and/or help the area achieve a critical mass as a development magnet in itself.
TNDG will prepare a pro forma analysis intended to reflect typical retail, residential and mixed-use development projects compatible with the strategic vision for Camarillo Commons. In order to determine feasible development densities for targeted land use types, TNDG would define up to five (5) development prototypes for specific opportunity/catalyst sites within the Plan area. TNDG would then test these prototypes for financial feasibility through the pro forma cash flow analysis. The information
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
17 regarding “developer feasible” densities would inform the team’s recommendations regarding development standards and allowable densities, and could also potentially be used to facilitate integrating Housing Element objectives with Camarillo Commons development opportunities.
The format of the development prototype will be coordinated with City staff. The pro forma model would be designed to 1) indicate overall financial feasibility for revitalization in the plan area, and 2) illustrate the effects of alternative incentivizing funding scenarios on project feasibility. Key inputs to the model will be based on TNDG’s research and documentation of prices, rents, and specific costs associated with real estate development in Camarillo.
6. Presentation to committees and staff
TNDG’s cost proposal assumes up to four (4) formal (in-person) presentations to City committees and staff for this assignment. In addition, TNDG’s commitment to excellent client service includes unlimited (as-needed) coordination meetings with City staff at no charge.
7. Draft and final report
TNDG will prepare and submit draft and final reports in both PDF and MS Word formats, as specified.
4b. Work Schedule
The TNDG team would complete this assignment within approximately four (4) months of authorization to proceed. The chart below shows TNDG’s proposed phasing of the project in terms of major tasks.
Proposed Schedule of Work
Camarillo Commons Market Analysis The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. Team Scope of Work Task / Month
1. Review and analysis of existing
documents and data
2. Constraints analysis
3. Market analysis
4. Outreach plan and execution
5. Strategy recommendations
6. Presentations
7. Draft and final reports ♦ ♦
Task time Review period
♦ Draft document ♦ Final document
1 32 4
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
18 5. COST PROPOSAL
TNDG would complete the proposed scope of work for a total fixed fee of $86,200 (EIGHTY-SIX THOUSAND TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS). Consultant hours by major project component are estimated as follows:
6. ABILITY TO MEET CITY’S INSURANCE REQUIREMENTS
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) can meet the City’s mandatory insurance requirements, as listed in Exhibit C of the sample Professional Services Agreement (Attachment B of the City’s RFP). TNDG will meet all insurance requirements and provide proof of insurance and applicable endorsements within a week of the date they are requested by City prior to the execution of a contract.
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
19 7. DISCLOSURE OF FINANCIAL INTERESTS
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
P.O. Box 489
Yorba Linda, CA 92886
(714) 692-9596 phone / (714) 692-9597 fax
Email: [email protected]
www.natelsondale.com
October 7, 2024
To Whom it May Concern:
Under penalty of perjury, I attest that The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. has no financial relationships with current or past officials or employees of the City of Camarillo. I further attest that The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. has no past, current or foreseeable conflicts of interested with respect to the firm’s proposed work on a market analysis for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan Area.
Respectfully submitted,
Roger Dale
Managing Principal
PROPOSAL FOR A MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE CAMARILLO COMMONS STRATEGIC PLAN AREA The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
20 8. NO PAST, CURRENT, OR PENDING LITIGATION
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) has never been a party to any litigation and has no pending litigation at this time.
9. SIGNATURE BINDING THE FIRM TO THIS OFFER
This proposal is a firm offer good for a 120-day period (October 7, 2024 through February 7, 2025).
Signed:
Roger Dale
Managing Principal
The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.