system during an evacuation event affecting the east side of the City, specifically the communities of Camarillo Springs, Leisure Village, and Upland.
Approach
Because the east side of the City of Camarillo is located adjacent to undeveloped land in the foothills of the Santa Monica Mountains where fire risk is relatively high, evacuation of the communities there requires access to the US-101 freeway to proceed west toward the City of Oxnard. In consultation with City staff, Fehr & Peers identified the transportation analysis zones (TAZs) in the Ventura County Transportation Model (VCTM) that correspond with the Camarillo Springs, Leisure Village, and Upland Communities, as these communities are most likely to require evacuation if a fire were to erupt to the east of the City. Following the identification of the corresponding TAZs in the VCTM, Fehr & Peers identified evacuation routes and access points to those routes connecting the three communities to the US-101 freeway. These routes are described below (see Appendix A for the City’s Evacuation Route Map):
• Primary Evacuation Routes:
o Camarillo Springs Road – Camarillo Springs Road is a north-south road that provides access from the Camarillo Springs community, located south of the US-101 freeway in the southeast corner of the City, to the US-101 freeway to the north. o Santa Rosa Road – Santa Rosa Road is a north-south road that connects the Upland community in the northeast corner of the City and the Leisure Village community at the eastern edge of the City to the US-101 freeway to the south. • Secondary Evacuation Routes:
o Pleasant Valley Road – Pleasant Valley Road is a east-west road along the southern boundary of the City that provides access from the Camarillo Springs community west toward Lewis Road, which in turn provides access to the US-101 freeway. o Lewis Road – Lewis Road is a north-south road located in the center of the City that provides access to the US-101 freeway.
• Other Potential Evacuation Routes:
o Las Posas Road – On the west side of the City, Las Posas Road is a north-south road that provides access from Pleasant Valley Road to the south to the US-101 freeway to the north.
o Flynn Road – Flynn Road is a north-south road located east of Lewis Road that provides access from the Upland community to the north to the US-101 freeway to the south. • The US-101 is a freeway that runs through the city limits and serves as the primary evacuation route for vehicles traveling west toward the City of Oxnard and the Pacific coast.
Twenty roadway segments were analyzed as key roadways to access the US-101 freeway from the three identified communities on the east side of the City:
Hannah Mize
October 31, 2023
1) Lewis Road from Adolfo Road to US-101 freeway
2) Lewis Road from Las Posas Road/Upland Road to Adolfo Road 3) Upland Road from Lewis Road to Flynn Road
4) Upland Road from Flynn Road to Woodcreek Road
5) Upland Road from Woodcreek Road to Mission Oaks Boulevard 6) Upland Road from Mission Oaks Boulevard to Santa Rosa Road 7) Santa Rosa Road from Upland Road to Oak Canyon Road
8) Santa Rosa Road from Oak Canyon Road to Woodcreek Road 9) Santa Rosa Road from Woodcreek Road to Los Pueblos Drive 10) Santa Rosa Road from Los Pueblos Drive to Adolfo Road 11) Santa Rosa Road from Adolfo Road to US-101 Freeway
12) Pleasant Valley Road/Santa Rosa Road from US-101 Freeway to Pancho Road 13) Pleasant Valley Road from Pancho Road to Lewis Road 14) Pleasant Valley Road from Lewis Road to Las Posas Road 15) Las Posas Road from Pleasant Valley Road to Ventura Boulevard 16) Las Posas Road from Ventura Boulevard to Daily Drive 17) Flynn Road from Upland Road to Adolfo Road
18) Flynn Road from Adolfo Road to Mission Oaks Boulevard/US-101 Freeway 19) Camarillo Springs Road from Ridge View Street/Adohr Lane to the US-101 Freeway 20) Adohr Lane from Pancho Road to Ridge View Street
This assessment was completed under existing (2022) PM peak hour conditions with and without evacuation traffic. To compare evacuation travel demand to typical PM peak hour traffic volumes on the twenty study roadway segments, Fehr & Peers obtained weekday PM peak hour traffic counts from the City for key intersections located along the roadway segments and used these volumes to impute the volumes traveling on each segment.
Evacuation access from the aforementioned east side communities was assessed by reviewing the vehicle travel demand on each roadway during an evacuation event. To estimate evacuation travel demand for each study segment, land use and socioeconomic data were aggregated by transportation analysis zones (TAZs) from the Ventura County Transportation Model (VCTM). The VCTM is a useful starting point for estimating travel demand as it provides socioeconomic information, such as population, employment, and number of households, and the TAZs represent distinct areas of the city that can be used to estimate vehicle travel demand along each study roadway segment during an evacuation event. The process for developing the evacuation travel demand estimates is explained in further detail below.
Hannah Mize
October 31, 2023
Evacuation Assessment
A capacity assessment was performed for an emergency evacuation scenario in which the Santa Ana Winds cause a wildfire necessitating evacuation for the east side communities of Camarillo Springs, Leisure Village, and Upland. For this assessment, it was assumed that all residents and employees in the affected communities would need to evacuate towards the US-101 freeway and travel west toward the City of Oxnard and the Pacific coast. In addition, it was assumed that only land uses in the City of Camarillo would be under an evacuation order.
The first step in the evacuation assessment was to identify the number of residents, households, and employees in the VCTM TAZs that correspond with the Camarillo Springs, Leisure Village, and Upland communities to inform estimates of evacuation demand. The VCTM was also used to identify vehicle availability by household size, which informed the conversion of residential person trips into evacuation vehicle trips. For employment trips, all workers employed in the VCTM TAZs that correspond with the evacuation communities were assumed to travel alone in their own vehicle during the evacuation event.
Table 1 summarizes the socioeconomic information from the VCTM that was used to develop estimates of vehicle trips during an evacuation scenario. Table 2 summarizes the total number of residential PM peak hour vehicle evacuation trips that were assumed in the evacuation assessment by TAZ.
Table 1: Camarillo Evacuation Socioeconomic Data Summary TAZ/Community Population Households Employees
60119201 / Upland 1,684 621 -
60117101 / Leisure Village 4,113 1,507 216
60117201 / Leisure Village 3,854 1,421 199
60116401 / Camarillo Springs 2,543 940 312
Source: Ventura County Transportation Model data compiled by Fehr & Peers, 2023.
Table 2: Residential Vehicle Evacuation PM Peak Hour Trips by TAZ TAZ/Community Total Residential Vehicle Evacuation Trips 60119201 / Upland 1,081
60117101 / Leisure Village 2,675
60117201 / Leisure Village 2,416
60116401 / Camarillo Springs 1,582
Source: Ventura County Transportation Model data compiled by Fehr & Peers, 2023.
The second step in the evacuation assessment was to assign evacuation trips to evacuation routes based on location and proximity to the various routes available during an evacuation scenario. Table 3 summarizes the proportion of evacuation trips that were assigned to each route by community/TAZ. For each community, the proportion of evacuation trips assigned to each route sums to 100%.
Hannah Mize
October 31, 2023
Table 3: Camarillo Evacuation Socioeconomic Data Summary Community TAZ Route % of Trips
Upland 60119201 Upland – Lewis – US-101 50%
Upland 60119201 Upland – Flynn – US-101 25%
Upland 60119201 Upland – Santa Rosa – US-101 25%
Leisure Village (north) 60117101 Santa Rosa – US-101 50% Leisure Village (north) 60117101 Santa Rosa – Pleasant Valley – Las Posas – US-101 50%
Leisure Village (south) 60117201 Santa Rosa – US-101 50% Leisure Village (south) 60117201 Santa Rosa – Pleasant Valley – Las Posas – US-101 50%
Camarillo Springs 60116401 Camarillo Springs – US-101 50% Camarillo Springs 60116401 Ridge View – Adohr – Pleasant Valley – Las Posas – US-101 50%
The Highway Capacity Manual (6th Ed) was utilized to estimate roadway capacity during an evacuation event. Ideal saturation flow on a roadway is 1,900 vehicles per lane per hour. The per lane capacity applied in this assessment is based on a capacity of 950 vehicles per hour per lane to account for constraints at intersections due to typical weekday traffic signal timings and vehicle turning movements. The roadway capacities are shown in Table 4.
Hannah Mize
October 31, 2023
Table 4: Evacuation Capacity
Roadway Outbound Lanes
Outbound
Capacity
(vehicles
per hour)
Lewis Road from Adolfo Road to US-101 Freeway 1 950
Lewis Road from Las Posas Road/Upland Road to Adolfo Road 1 950 Upland Road from Lewis Road to Flynn Road 2 1,900
Upland Road from Flynn Road to Woodcreek Road 2 1,900
Upland Road from Woodcreek Road to Mission Oaks Blvd 2 1,900 Upland Road from Mission Oaks Blvd to Santa Rosa Road 2 1,900 Santa Rosa Road from Upland Road to Oak Canyon Road 2 1,900 Santa Rosa Road from Oak Canyon Road to Woodcreek Road 2 1,900 Santa Rosa Road from Woodcreek Road to Los Pueblos Drive 2 1,900 Santa Rosa Road from Los Pueblos Drive to Adolfo Road 2 1,900 Santa Rosa Road from Adolfo Road to US-101 Freeway 3 2,850 Pleasant Valley Road/Santa Rosa Road from US-101 Freeway to Pancho Road 2 1,900 Pleasant Valley Road from Pancho Road to Lewis Road 2 1,900 Pleasant Valley Road from Lewis Road to Las Posas Road 2 1,900 Las Posas Road from Pleasant Valley Road to Ventura Boulevard 2 1,900 Las Posas Road from Ventura Boulevard to Daily Drive 3 2,850 Flynn Road from Upland Road to Adolfo Road 2 1,900
Flynn Road from Adolfo Road to Mission Oaks Blvd/US-101 Freeway 2 1,900 Camarillo Springs Road from Ridge View Street/Adohr Lane to US-101 Freeway 2 1,900 Adohr Lane from Pancho Road to Ridge View Street 1 950
Source: Highway Capacity Manual 6th Edition, Transportation Research Board, 2016.
The final step in the evacuation assessment was to compare the travel demand during an evacuation event to the roadway capacity for the study roadway segments that would provide access to the US-101 for vehicles exiting the City. The roadway capacity, typical peak hour traffic volumes, and estimated evacuation demand were combined to compare the evacuation demand and volume-to-capacity ratio (V/C) for each study roadway segment. The total evacuation travel demand assumes that two-thirds (67%) will occur during a one-hour period based on consultation with public safety experts. The results of the evacuation analysis are shown in Table 5.
600 Wilshire Boulevard | Suite 1050 | Los Angeles, CA 90017 | (213) 261-3050 | Fax (310) 394-7663 www.fehrandpeers.com
Table 5: Evacuation Analysis
Roadway
Background
Traffic
Residential
Evacuation
Traffic
Employee
Evacuation
Traffic
Total
Traffic Lanes
Capacity
(vehicles
per hour)
Existing
V/C
Ratio
Evacuation
V/C Ratio
Lewis Road from Adolfo Road to US-101 Freeway 664 362 - 1,026 1 950 0.7 1.1 Lewis Road from Las Posas Road/Upland Road to Adolfo Road 490 362 - 852 1 950 0.5 0.9 Upland Road from Lewis Road to Flynn Road 765 362 - 1,127 2 1,900 0.4 0.6 Upland Road from Flynn Road to Woodcreek Road 962 543 - 1,505 2 1,900 0.5 0.8 Upland Road from Woodcreek Road to Mission Oaks Blvd 590 543 - 1,133 2 1,900 0.3 0.6 Upland Road from Mission Oaks Blvd to Santa Rosa Road 349 543 - 892 2 1,900 0.2 0.5 Santa Rosa Road from Upland Road to Oak Canyon Road 768 181 - 949 2 1,900 0.4 0.5 Santa Rosa Road from Oak Canyon Road to Woodcreek Road 914 1,077 72 2,063 2 1,900 0.5 1.1 Santa Rosa Road from Woodcreek Road to Los Pueblos Drive 914 1,077 72 2,063 2 1,900 0.5 1.1 Santa Rosa Road from Los Pueblos Drive to Adolfo Road 1,365 1,886 139 3,390 2 1,900 0.7 1.8 Santa Rosa Road from Adolfo Road to US-101 Freeway 1,854 1,886 139 3,879 3 2,850 0.7 1.4 Pleasant Valley Road/Santa Rosa Road from US-101 Freeway to Pancho Road 1,092 1,705 139 2,937 2 1,900 0.6 1.5 Pleasant Valley Road from Pancho Road to Lewis Road 1,369 2,515 206 4,090 2 1,900 0.7 2.2 Pleasant Valley Road from Lewis Road to Las Posas Road 402 2,515 206 3,123 2 1,900 0.2 1.6 Las Posas Road from Pleasant Valley Road to Ventura Boulevard 968 2,515 206 3,689 2 1,900 0.5 1.9 Las Posas Road from Ventura Boulevard to Daily Drive 968 2,515 206 3,689 3 2,850 0.3 1.3 Flynn Road from Upland Road to Adolfo Road 295 181 - 476 2 1,900 0.2 0.3 Flynn Road from Adolfo Road to Mission Oaks Blvd/US-101 Freeway 527 181 - 708 2 1,900 0.3 0.4 Camarillo Springs Road from Ridge View Street/Adohr Lane to US-101 Freeway 164 809 67 1,040 2 1,900 0.1 0.5 Adohr Lane from Pancho Road to Ridge View Street 607 809 67 1,483 1 950 0.6 1.6
600 Wilshire Boulevard | Suite 1050 | Los Angeles, CA 90017 | (213) 261-3050 | Fax (310) 394-7663 www.fehrandpeers.com
As shown in Table 5, evacuation demand in the east side of the City would strain the capacity of many roadway segments along the identified evacuation routes. With the addition of evacuation traffic on top of the existing background traffic, slightly more than half of the roadway segments analyzed would exceed a V/C of 1.0, indicating that the evacuation demand would exceed the roadway capacity of these segments, and therefore, some vehicles would require longer than the peak hour following an evacuation order to evacuate the City.
The assessment assumes evacuation traffic would be evenly distributed across each evacuation roadway according to the route assignment percentages shown in Table 3. However, emergency scenarios are often unpredictable and driver behavior can be disorderly. Additionally, evacuation events are not linear in nature (e.g., even distribution during the evacuation time period), and it is anticipated that evacuees would vacate at a rate that more closely resembles a bell curve from the time that the evacuation order is issued. These are conditions which would affect the total evacuation operations estimated in our assessment that are beyond the scope of this study. There is also general unpredictability in operational issues such as traffic signal synchronization issues between City intersections and/or Caltrans ramps, power issues that would trigger traffic signals to operate in “red flash”, or congestion along the US-101 that could further impede traffic flows.
Recommendations
Given the topographic constraints that would preclude evacuation to the north, south, or east, the City has limited options to manage evacuation demand from the east side of the City during an emergency scenario. However, as the City continues to prepare for emergency events, special considerations can be taken to facilitate emergency evacuation. Some considerations are provided below:
• Future roadway design, especially in areas that have less accessibility and on key evacuation routes, should consider evacuation capacity and consider design treatments such as painted medians (instead of raised medians) or other treatments that could assist in creating reversible lanes and facilitate additional capacity in an evacuation event scenario. o In evacuation events, painted medians could operate as additional egress lanes. For example, a four-lane roadway could operate with three egress lanes and one ingress lane (for emergency vehicles). The capacity of many roadway segments along the identified evacuation could effectively be doubled using this approach. • Evacuation event signal timing should be periodically reviewed and updated to provide additional evacuation capacity.
o In the assessment above, the roadway capacities are based on typical traffic signal operations and green time allocation in the City. Implementing a traffic signal timing Hannah Mize
October 31, 2023
and coordination plan that prioritizes green time for the evacuation of vehicles to the US-101 freeway would provide additional roadway capacity and improve the V/C results reported in Table 5.
• Consider the needs of vulnerable populations in the city, such as senior housing facilities and schools, and others without access to a personal vehicle in City evacuation plans.
Hannah Mize
October 31, 2023
Attachment A
City of Camarillo Evacuation Route Map
TAZs
Camarillo City Boundary
Be
ardsle
y Rd
Wright
Rd
Santa C
laraAv
e
Revo
lon
Slough
Av iat ion D r
Ventura Bl vd
Wo
od
Rd
Cen
tral Ave
E Ple
asant
Valley R
d
Spanish Hills
Country Club
Leesdale
Springville
34 W Loop DrAna
cap
a D
r
Mesa D
r
Las Posas Rd
Las Posas
Country Club
Sterling Hills
Golf Club
101
Pan
cho
Rd
M ission Oak
s Blvd
Mobil A
ve
Crestv iew Ave
Tem
ple Ave
FlynnRd
Cawe lti Rd
Cre
ek
Rd
Las Pos as Rd
S Las
Posas
Rd
Arn
eill
Rd
Pleasan t Valley Rd Pleasa nt Vall ey Rd
Ventura Blvd
S Lewis
Rd
Lewis R
d
E 5th S t
Ve ntur a Fw y
Camarillo
Airport
Camarillo
Calle guas Creek
Arroyo las Posas
W or th Way
Up land Rd
Somis
ConejoCreek
Mission O
aks
Blvd
S anta
Rosa Rd
Ve ntu ra Fw
y
Camarillo
Springs Golf
Course
60100401
60099201
60105101
60101201
60100301
60100201
60101101
60103101
60104201
60103201
60109201
60107101
60107201
60104101 60110101
60105301
60104301
60106301
60116101
60111201
60109101
60109301
60113401
60111101
60114201
60112101
60112201
60113301
60114101
60119201
60116601
60115101
60115201
60115301
60117301
60118201
60117201
60116501
60116401
60116701
60117101
60118101 60118301
\\fpgisdevapp01\DevGISLibrary\ServiceMXDs\LA\LA21-3379_CamarilloCAP\LA21-3379_CamarilloCAP .aprx City of Camarillo Evacuation Route Map