Camarillo City Council
AGENDA REPORT
Date: September 24, 2025
To: Honorable Mayor and City Councilmembers
From: Greg Ramirez, City Manager
Submitted by: David Sanchez, Community Development Director Subject: Market Analysis & Strategic Recommendations for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan
BACKGROUND
On February 14, 2007, the City Council adopted the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan (Strategic Plan) to establish a vision and development framework to guide land use activity, development, and reinvestment in the planning area (Attachment 2). The Strategic Plan area contains two of the city’s oldest shopping centers, a Post Office, Ventura County Fire Station #54, Harley’s Camarillo Bowl, churches, professional office and retail space, and the Raemere Street single-family residential neighborhood. The Strategic Plan seeks to transform this underutilized, aging area into a pedestrian-oriented destination center with retail shops, restaurants, plazas, entertainment uses, and a greater variety of housing product types and densities.
The majority of the Strategic Plan area was within the jurisdiction of the city’s former Redevelopment Agency, and at the time the Strategic Plan was adopted, Tax Increment Funds (TIFs) were an available source of funding for the city through the Redevelopment Agency. Implementation of the Strategic Plan relied, in part, on city efforts to incentivize redevelopment by filling funding gaps using TIFs for infrastructure improvements. In 2012, the State eliminated Redevelopment Agencies, and as a result, TIFs are no longer a source of available funding.
To date, there has been a lack of new projects in the Strategic Plan area. Although property owners within the Strategic Plan area have expressed interest in redevelopment of their properties, they have indicated that additional flexibility in the allowed land uses and development standards of the Strategic Plan will be necessary to make redevelopment economically viable. The Strategic Plan was developed using a market analysis that was completed in 2005. Since then, there have been substantial changes in market conditions that impact the potential for redevelopment. Additionally, a multitude of State laws have been enacted since adoption of the Strategic Plan that encourage
Market Analysis for Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan
September 24, 2025
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housing construction and allow for housing development on commercially zoned properties. The city has also adopted a By-Right Residential Zoning Overlay since adoption of the Strategic Plan that covers a portion of Plan area, including 14 nonvacant sites, and allows the ministerial approval of residential development that includes 20% or more units affordable to lower-income households.
In order to identify new funding sources for improvements within the Strategic Plan area and to analyze current market conditions and constraints to evaluate opportunities and strategies for redevelopment, the City Council awarded a professional services agreement on December 11, 2024 to The Natelson Dale Group to prepare a new market analysis. On July 14, 2025, a new market analysis and associated strategic recommendations were provided to staff. The findings of the market analysis are summarized below.
DISCUSSION
Residential Development
The market analysis cites official Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) growth projections for the city which indicate minimal household growth through the year 2045 with increases in the number of households primarily in higher-income categories. However, given the city’s mandated Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) and the Statewide and regional housing demand, the market analysis concludes that the market demand in the city likely exceeds SCAG forecasts. Specifically, the market analysis finds a demand for 590 new dwelling units, consisting of 132 for-sale units and 458 for-rent units within the Strategic Plan area. Within the Strategic Plan area, 487 units were included in the residential land inventory of the Housing Element to accommodate the city’s regional housing needs allocation.
The market analysis also includes financial feasibility scenarios for three for-rent and two for-sale housing developments at varying densities. All are mixed-use projects, with either 10,000 or 20,000 square feet (sq. ft.) of retail area and one-quarter of the commercial space assumed to be for restaurant uses. The pro forma models are based on a prototypical four-acre site, which assumes some parcel consolidation will occur. The pro forma models demonstrate that densities of 20 to 25 dwelling units per acre are marginally financially feasible, while densities between 30 to 45 dwelling units per acre are financially feasible.
Overall, the strong financial feasibility of higher density housing creates the most likely incentive for redevelopment of the older commercial sites and an enhancement in the demand for new commercial development in a mixed-use format.
Retail
The market analysis evaluated regional retail demand and determined that the Strategic Plan area can currently accommodate an additional 111,492 sq. ft. of new retail with up to 140,938 sq. ft. of new retail by 2045. These demands are a result of capturing existing Market Analysis for Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan
September 24, 2025
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retail sales leakage to neighboring communities and adding new residential development (i.e. new residents) to the city. The analysis further notes that the retail demand may be met by developing new retail in small increments as part of mixed-use projects.
Office, Industrial, & Hotel
The market analysis demonstrates a low demand for new office, industrial, and hotel development. SCAG forecasts predict limited employment growth, and the market analysis confirms that the city currently has a healthy market for office and industrial space with low vacancy rates. Furthermore, office development in the Strategic Plan area is likely to be local-serving uses (e.g., medical or dental offices), and the area is not suitable for industrial development. The market analysis also confirms that the three hotels currently proposed or under construction within the city absorb the foreseeable demand for new hotel development.
Comparison with 2005 Market Analysis
The 2005 market analysis that was completed to inform the development of the Strategic Plan identified a demand for up to 550 new residential units that included a mix of for-rent and for-sale housing product types (e.g., residential condos, live/work condos, and apartments) at densities ranging between 24 and 40 dwelling units per acre. The new market analysis projects a slightly higher demand than the 2005 market analysis and identifies the potential for up to 590 new residential units at densities ranging between 30 and 45 dwelling units per acre in recognition of the regional need for more housing and the promotion of higher density housing developments by State law.
The 2005 market analysis identified a demand for between 110,000 and 120,000 sq. ft. of new retail development, and the new market analysis identifies a similar but slightly higher range of 111,492 to 140,938 sq. ft. Both market analyses concur that there is limited demand for new office space and envision new office space development as part of new vertical mixed-use developments. Additionally, the 2005 market analysis did not analyze the demand for new industrial or hotel development.
Strategic Recommendations
The market analysis suggests the following strategic recommendations to inform adjustments to the mix of land uses, development standards, and implementation strategies for the Strategic Plan:
▪Balance promoting higher density mixed-use development on approximately 20 - 25% of the Strategic Plan area with retaining commercial character and existing businesses;
▪Incentivize upgrades to existing properties;
▪Plan public gathering spaces for recurring special events/activities; ▪Incorporate design standards that enhance walkability; ▪Attract new destination-oriented retail, restaurant, and entertainment uses; ▪Allow new for-rent housing developments at 40 to 55 dwelling units per acre; ▪Allow new for-sale townhome developments at 20 to 30 dwelling units per acre; Market Analysis for Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan
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▪Use the Strategic Plan as a tool to expedite entitlement of projects meeting defined development standards and densities;
▪Evaluate a consolidation of existing off-street parking; and ▪Pursue funding mechanisms discussed below to support public improvements within the Strategic Plan area.
New Funding Resources
Table II-4 on page 15 and Appendix B of the market analysis identify potential funding resources for regulatory actions, improvements, and programs within the Strategic Plan area. Funding for public improvement projects can be secured on a project-by-project basis, as part of the redevelopment of private property, through developer contributions using design standards that require public improvements, development agreements, and the imposition of development impact fees. Financing programs such as the Statewide Community Infrastructure Program (SCIP) and the Bond Opportunities for Land Development (BOLD) program enable developers to pay most impact fees and finance public improvements through an assessment district or community facilities district (also known as Mello-Roos District) using tax exempt bond issuance proceeds. A combination of the creation of assessment districts, an infrastructure and revitalization financing district, the city’s capital improvement program, low-cost direct loans for public agencies through the Infrastructure State Revolving Fund Loan Program, and federal, regional, and state grants can also provide funding for public improvements.
The retention of existing businesses within the Strategic Plan area and incentives to facilitate property maintenance and upgrades can be achieved, in part, by modifications to the applicable development standards and funding from development agreements, assessment and improvement districts, community facilities districts, property owners associations, the city’s General Fund, and grants. In addition, the installation, maintenance, and upgrades to public amenities and spaces can be encouraged through modifications to the development standards in the Strategic Plan and funded through a combination of developer contributions, assessment districts, and the city’s capital improvement program.
Stakeholder Outreach
The Natelson Dale Group and staff prepared a database of all property owners, tenants, and property owner representatives (i.e., landlords, property managers) in the Strategic Plan area. Three different surveys were prepared, one for each group, to gauge their interest in redevelopment, identify barriers to redevelopment, and capture priorities for improvements in the Strategic Plan area. After distributing the surveys, consultants and staff followed up with emails and phone calls to all contacts in the database to encourage participation. Although responses were not received from all of the stakeholders that were identified, the input received helped to shape the strategic recommendations for an update of the Strategic Plan. Specifically, allowed densities and building height were identified as existing development standards that hinder the feasibility of redevelopment.
The creation of branding and/or themes for the Strategic Plan area, as well as the Market Analysis for Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan
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provision of new public gathering spaces and entertainment uses, was suggested by multiple stakeholders to support the development of Camarillo Commons as a destination for both residents of the city as well as neighboring cities. The majority of the stakeholder feedback focused on the retention of existing businesses.
The Strategic Plan area has a diverse mix of established businesses that the community values. These businesses have been successful, in part, due to the area’s relatively affordable business costs (e.g., rent, free parking). The outreach that was conducted to existing business owners revealed valid concerns regarding displacement if newer buildings in the area will result in an increase in their rental fees. The market analysis recommends the implementation of a legacy business program specific to the Strategic Plan area to provide financial incentives for landlords to retain existing tenants, financial assistance (e.g., grants or low-interest loans for tenant improvements) to businesses vulnerable to displacement, and technical assistance for businesses that choose to relocate. Continued outreach to these businesses owners will ensure that they understand all of their options and staff can incorporate business retention strategies into the update of the Strategic Plan to support them.
Additionally, the creation of a property and business improvement district (PBID) can improve business retention by providing a source of funding for enhanced maintenance and cleanliness, capital improvements, safety and security programs, marketing for the promotion of businesses, and business support services. These enhanced services and improvements function to create an environment where businesses are more likely to thrive and choose to stay.
Property Ownership
The fragmented and absentee property ownership within the Strategic Plan area has historically presented challenges to engagement and redevelopment. The potential formation of assessment districts can function to bring property owners together and encourage active participation in reinvestment and redevelopment. Improvements funded by an assessment district can function to elevate the market and incentivize reinvestment and redevelopment on private property. Staff will explore creating incentives for lot consolidation, such as increasing the allowable residential densities as part of the Strategic Plan update, as the pro forma analysis suggests higher density is needed to increase the economic feasibility of redevelopment. Incentivizing lot consolidation will also address parcel fragmentation and facilitate more cohesive site planning.
Economic Development & Land Use Committee
On August 28, 2025, the market analysis was presented to the Economic Development and Land Use Committee. The Committee was supportive of the strategic recommendations of the market analysis and suggested additional outreach to the West Ventura County Business Alliance (WVCBA). Staff have reached out to the WVCBA with the market analysis to obtain their feedback.
Market Analysis for Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan
September 24, 2025
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Next Steps
Staff will move forward with updating the Strategic Plan based upon the strategic recommendations provided in the market analysis.
FISCAL IMPACT
There is no budget impact as a result of this action.
CEQA DETERMINATIONS
Staff has determined, in accordance with Section 15061(b)(3) of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines, that the market analysis prepared for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan area is not subject to CEQA review because it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that the market analysis will have a significant effect on the environment.
RECOMMENDATION
1. Find that the market analysis prepared for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan area is not subject to California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines pursuant to Section 15061(b)(3), because it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that the market analysis will have a significant effect on the environment.
2. Receive and file the market analysis that was prepared for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan area.
ATTACHMENTS
1. Market Analysis for the Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan Area dated September 16, 2025
2. Camarillo Commons Strategic Plan Area
REFERENCE MATERIALS – AVAILABLE FOR REVIEW AT CITY HALL None