ECONOMIC UPDATE
City of Camarillo | As of March 31, 2026
CHANDLER ASSET MANAGEMENT | chandlerasset.com
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ECONOMIC UPDATE
• Economic Outlook: 2025 US GDP was 2.1%. Bloomberg consensus is calling for 2.2% GDP growth for 2026.
• Geopolitical Risks: Volatility due to conflicts in the Middle East has driven yields and energy prices higher. The ceasefire has been extended. • Federal Reserve Policy: FOMC held rates at 3.50% - 3.75% at March meeting.
• Labor Market: March payrolls rebounded to +178,000. Unemployment was 4.3%.
• Inflation: March CPI jumped 0.9% for the month and 3.3% YoY. • Financial Markets: The S&P 500 hit record highs on strong corporate earnings.
2.00 2.50
3.00 3.50
4.00 4.50
5.00 5.50
6.00 6.50
US Fuel Prices
Average Retail Price US Diesel
Average Retail Price US Gas
($) Per Gallon
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
Oil Prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI Spot Cushing)
Dated Brent (Global Spot)
Price Per Barrel (WTI Spot)
Source: Bloomberg Indices Source: Bloomberg Indices
ENERGY MARKETS
Retail gasoline prices climbed steeply in March following the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to AAA, the national average reached $4.06 per gallon by month-end, an increase exceeding a dollar from $2.98 on February 26.
Diesel prices reached $5.49 as tight global distillate supplies compoundedthe disruption. Cushing WTI crude settled at $101.38 per barrel on March 31, while Dated Brent closed at $126.97, producing a spread of roughly $25.60, the widest in more than five years. The gap reflects the disproportionate impact of shipping disruptions on internationally benchmarkedcrude relative to domestic supply bolstered by Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI YOY % Change
Core CPI YOY % Change
YOY (%) Change
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
PCE Price Deflator
YOY % Change
PCE Core Deflator
YOY % Change
Fed Target
YOY (%) Change
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March surged 0.9%, the highest monthly rate since June 2022, and was up 3.3% on an annual basis primarily due to spikes in energy and airfare prices. Notably, Core CPI was little changed with a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual rise of 2.6% as costs for services and other goods remained subdued. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were little changed in February, with the headline PCE Price Index up 0.4% month-over-monthand 2.8% year-over-year. The Fed’s preferred metric, Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% during the month and 3.0% from February of 2025.
Source: US Department of Labor Source: US Department of Commerce
INFLATION
-400
-200
0 200
400
600
800
1,000MOM Change In Thousands (000's)
Nonfarm Payroll (000's)
Non-farm Payroll (000's)
3-month average (000's)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Unemployment Rate
Underemployment Rate (U6)
Unemployment Rate (U3)
Rate (%)
March nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000, a decisive reversal from February’s revised 133,000 decline that had been distorted by a Kaiser Permanente strike affecting over 30,000 healthcare workers and severe winter weather. Healthcare contributed 76,000 positions as striking nurses returned,while construction and leisure reboundedfrom weather-inducedtroughs. The unemploymentrate edged lower to
4.3%, though partly from a labor force reduction rather than a hiring acceleration. Meanwhile, the underemploymentrate edged up to
8.0% from 7.9% in February. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% over the month and 3.5% year over year—the slowest annual pace since May 2021.
Source: US Department of Labor Source: US Department of Labor
EMPLOYMENT
40 45
50 55
60 65
70 Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Surveys
ISM Manufacturing ISM Services
EXPANDING
CONTRACTING
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index rose to 52.7 in March from 52.4, the fastest factory expansion since August 2022 and a third consecutive month above 50. Production accelerated to 55.1 from 53.5, though new orders decelerated to 53.5 from 55.8.
The prices subindex leaped to 78.3 from 70.5, reflecting elevated energy costs, metals tariffs, and Iran-related supply disruptions.
Employment remained in contraction at 48.7. The Services Index eased to 54.0 in March from 56.1 in February but still posted its 21st consecutive month of expansion. The expansion was mainly from an increase in prices, amid higher oil and fuel costs. With both measures above the 50 threshold, ISM data point toward a resilient if cost-pressured economy.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
SURVEY BASED MEASURES
Components of GDP 3/25 6/25 9/25 12/25
0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 1.3%
3.8% -2.7% 0.0% 0.4%
-4.7% 4.8% 1.6% -0.2%
-0.4% -0.4% 0.2% -1.2%
0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
-0.6% 3.8% 4.4% 0.5%
State and Local (Consumption and Gross
Investment)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Net Exports and Imports
Federal Government Expenditures
Total
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP QOQ % Change
GDP YOY % Change
Source: US Department of Commerce Source: US Department of Commerce The third and final estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) showed fourth-quarter growth revised down to 0.5% from the initial
1.4% estimate. The slowdown from 4.4% in the third quarter primarily reflected a sharp pullback in government spending, as the federal governmentshutdown weighed on activity. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects statistical distortions will persist into the spring due to data collection disruptions. Personal Consumption Expenditures also declined across both goods and services.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
LOCAL ECONOMIC DATA
US California Ventura
County
Riverside
County
Orange
County
Los Angeles
County
Population1 341.8 million 39.4 million 828,000 2.54 million 3.14 million 9.69 million 5-Year Annualized Growth +0.6% (0.1%) (0.4%) +1.0% (0.3%) (0.6%) Median Household Income4 $84k $103k $117k $96k $118k $93k 5-Year Annualized Growth4 +0.5% +0.6% +0.5% +1.0% (0.2%) +0.6% Unemployment Rate
December 20252 4.4% 5.5% 4.7% 5.2% 3.9% 5.6%
Year on Year Change2 +0.3% 0.0% 0.0% +0.2% +0.2% (0.5%) Consumer Price Index, March
2026, Year on Year Change2 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% Change from Prior Year +0.9% +0.3% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4% +0.4% Median Home Value, February
20263 $361k $788k $818k $575k $1,040k $833k
Year on Year Change3 +0.4% +0.2% (2.8%) (3.0%) +0.5% (2.1%) Median Days on Market3 28 18 10 17 11 14
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
US Treasury Note Yields
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
Yield (%)
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
US Treasury Yield Curve
Mar-26
Dec-25
Mar-25
Yield (%)
At March month-end, the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 3.79%, down approximately 9 basis points from one year ago, while the 10-year finished at 4.32%, roughly 11 basis points higher year-over-year. The spread between the two narrowed to 52 basis points, wider by 20 basis points year-over-year. The prior 2-year to 10-year inversion from July 2022 through August 2024 was historically long. The average spread since 2005 is approximately 95 basis points, suggesting the current slope sits well below its long-run norm. The 3-month to 10- year spread stood near 64 basis points at March month-end.
BOND YIELDS
1US Census Bureau: Vintage 2025 estimates as of 7/1/25; 5-Year annualized growth calculated as compound annual growth rate from April 1, 2020 Census baseline to July 1, 2025 estimate (5.25-year period) 2Unemployment: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (US, seasonally adjusted) and CA Employment Development Department (EDD) (state and counties; seasonally adjusted for CA and LA, not seasonally adjusted for Ventura, Riverside, and Orange); Consumer Price Index (CPI): US BLS (Ventura and Orange use LA- Long Beach-Anaheim Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA); CA figure is a population-weighted composite of LA, SF, San Diego, and Riverside MSAs)
3Zillow Home Value Index (February 2026 release); median days to pending 4US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year estimates; figures in 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars; 5-Year annualized growth calculated as real compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2024 using ACS 1-year estimates (inflation-adjusted to 2024 dollars); ACS 1-year estimates for 2020 were not released due to pandemic data collection disruptions; Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) American Community Survey 2024 1-Year Estimates (October 2025)
LOCAL ECONOMIC DATA SOURCES