CA Review CKM
Meeting Date:Feb.8, 2022
To:Mayor and City Council
From:Scott Chadwick, City Manager
Staff Contact:Laura Rocha, Deputy City Manager, Administrative Services laura.rocha carlsbadca.gov, 760-602-2415
Subject:Economic and Financial Update for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2021- 22 and Mid-year Review with Staffing and Other Funding Requests Districts:All
Recommended Action
•Receive a report on the economic and financial update for the second quarter of fiscal year 2021-22
•Receive a report on the results of the mid-year budget review •Adopt a resolution approving fiscal year 2021-22 mid-year requests and related new full-time staff positions and transfers of funds between departments in the General Fund
•Adopt a resolution approving the appropriation and transfer from General Fund, Recycled Water Fund, Wastewater Fund and Solid Waste Fund reserves to the Carlsbad Municipal Water District Water Fund to eliminate a liability Executive Summary
The City Manager committed to provide quarterly updates to the City Council on the economic outlook and an update on the city’s finances during the COVID-19 emergency. In these updates, staff provides a presentation on the:
•National, state, regional and Carlsbad-specific economic data •The city’s most recent financial data
•General progress and execution of the annual budget
This report details economic trends in the recovery from the pandemic and other recent economic events. In line with regional trends, Carlsbad saw increases in revenues in almost all categories when compared to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year, and expenditures are in line with the prior year’s rate of spending.
Additionally, the city completed its first mid-year budget review process with the participation of all departments citywide. This included departments’ analysis of their revenues and expenditures to date and whether they were in line with targets adopted for the fiscal year 2021-22 operating budget. Departments also identified areas of underspending that will result in savings for the city when compared to the adopted budget, such as unintended staff vacancies.
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This report details individual budget transfers the City Manager authorized between departments to accommodate mid-year budget requests. Staff had identified savings that covered all of the budget transfers and there was no impact to the General Fund for fiscal year 2021-22.
During the mid-year process, several departments also made requests to change the number of full-time or part-time personnel allocated for them in the budget and to authorize a related General Fund budget transfer that exceeds the City Manager’s authority. These requests require the City Council’s approval as authorized in Resolution No. 2021-132, in which the City Council adopted the final operating budget for fiscal year 2021-22 and established controls on changes in appropriations for budget funds.
Discussion
Economic update
The Carlsbad economy is diverse, has strong industry clusters and is a leader in innovation.
According to the most recent biennial business survey of Carlsbad businesses, released in January 2022, five key industry clusters are driving growth:
• Life sciences
• Information, communications and technologies
• Cleantech
• Sports innovation and design
• Hospitality and tourism
Companies that call Carlsbad home are at the forefront in these areas of technology and innovation, and the city’s hospitality and tourism industry generates the second highest amount of transient occupancy tax among the county’s 18 cities.
The COVID-19 pandemic, which has continued to disrupt business operations, has had fluctuating levels of impact. It has led to public health orders that at times required people to stay at home, limited or suspended business operations and events, and reduced tourism and travel. These restrictions have also had disruptive effects on the national, state, and local economy. While some businesses have fully recovered, many hotels and resorts and other hospitality businesses, an important segment of Carlsbad’s economy, continue to be impacted.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic outlook for the United States, the state, the County of San Diego and the City of Carlsbad was positive. The local gross regional product continued to expand along with most of the rest of the nation. The city’s gross regional product was worth $15.3 billion in 2020, second only to that of the largest city in the county, San Diego.
From 2018 to 2019, Carlsbad’s gross regional product grew by $800 million.
But from 2019 to 2020, Carlsbad’s gross regional product remained unchanged, indicating a flattening during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The National Bureau of Economic Research determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020, marking the end of the longest recorded U.S. expansion, which had begun in June 2009. The pandemic brought on a global economic crisis and the impact on the U.S. economy was swift. Compared to the other Feb. 8, 2022 Item #8 Page 2 of 36
recessions that the U.S. experienced since 1980, the economic drop caused by COVID-19 was extreme.
As businesses were shuttered due to public health orders, unemployment numbers rose, with an estimated 20.5 million people in the U.S. out of work at the onset of the pandemic, according to a September 2020 Hamilton Project report. In Carlsbad, unemployment rose to a peak of 13.8% in April 2020. Government stimulus from federal, state and county programs played a major role in reversing the downward trend in the economy, even mitigating some of the economic impact of the subsequent surges.
In June 2021, when case rates fell to their lowest point since the onset of the pandemic, the state discontinued its Blueprint for a Safer Economy framework for economic recovery. That action lifted most of the restrictions imposed on businesses by the state and counties under the health order. This meant that businesses could generally resume normal service. However, the fall 2021 surge in COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant hampered some businesses’ return to normal operations, especially those dependent on supply chains that extended overseas. Some speculated this would lead to a depressed holiday shopping season in 2021.
As supply chains normalized in the late fall, product availability largely normalized, but increased prices sparked inflation fears. By the end of 2021, there was consensus from most economists that the price increases being seen were not transitory, that is, temporary, and that the United States was experiencing moderate levels of inflation. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of December U.S. prices have increased 7% year over year, the largest increase since 1982.
The current surge fueled by COVID-19’s Omicron variant began to impact California and San Diego County around the end of December 2021 and has had a noticeable impact on economic recovery. Many workplaces have extended remote work indefinitely, which is an indicator of continuing operational uncertainty for industries that rely on people being on site, like manufacturing. Many employers also reported significant workforce shortages due to sickness or close contact. This was amplified by classroom and daycare closures, which have an impact on working parents’ ability to work. In San Diego County, it is estimated that nearly 300,000 families with school-aged children have both parents in the workforce. As with Delta, the impact of the Omicron surge in San Diego County was blunted, in part by high vaccination rates and continued capacity in the region’s healthcare systems. Despite a significant case surge, San Diego hospitals still had 30% capacity regionwide (as of Jan. 12).
Despite the Delta and Omicron surges, which caused an uptick in unemployment to 6.5% at the state level in December, unemployment continued to fall at the county and city level. In December, the unemployment rate was at 4.2% for the county and 3.4% for the city.
To ensure the city remains responsive to the changing situation and is prepared to meet new challenges head-on, staff have leveraged greater in-house economic data capabilities and analytics developed over the past year to publish a quarterly economic scan. The Economic Scan for Fiscal Year 2021-2022 Q2 is presented as Exhibit 1. Staff also publish relevant data on the city’s economic development site, carlsbadca.gov/doingbusiness. The city will continue to develop tools to understand the economy, attract businesses, cultivate talent, and support data-driven economic development decision-making.
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Financial update
During the prior fiscal year, the City of Carlsbad saw significantly lower revenues from its transient occupancy tax, the tax assessed on each hotel and motel room rented in Carlsbad.
This tax is the city’s third-largest revenue source.
Revenue from sales tax, the second-largest revenue source, appears to have been bolstered by Carlsbad’s strong economy, economic stimulus payments, paycheck protection program, and other economic measures such as the federal CARES Act and American Rescue Plan Act, which were intended to offset the impacts of COVID-19.
Revenue from the city’s largest revenue source, the city’s share of property taxes, was not substantially impacted by COVID-19. However, many of the city’s other revenue sources, such as recreational service revenues, were significantly impacted by the pandemic, which reduced their contributions to the city’s budget.
During this very uncertain time, the city adopted its fiscal year 2021-22 budget based on conservative revenue projections. The ongoing economic disruption caused by COVID-19 was one of staff’s primary considerations when projecting city revenues, and the demands of the pandemic, along with the City Council’s approved goals, were the main factors when budgeting for expenditures.
Revenues
The majority of health order restrictions on businesses have been lifted since the fiscal year 2021-22 budget was adopted on June 8, 2021, and the results have been positive across most of the city’s revenue streams. The table below shows the differences in revenue when comparing the second quarter of fiscal year 2021-22 with the same period in the prior fiscal year.
Increased Decreased Transient occupancy tax Property tax $10,283,904 156% -$668,183 -2% Sales tax Intergovernmental revenue $6,282,208 32% -$1,348,738 -71% Other taxes Other revenue sources $1,085,127 22% -$288,695 -30% Licenses, permits, service charges Fines and forfeitures $1,364,896 31% -$27,939 -13% Investments, property income $245,897 10% Interdepartmental charges $71,409 3%
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As noted above, the city’s three major revenue sources are property tax, sales tax and transient occupancy tax.
• The majority of property tax revenue is collected in December and April each year.
Assessed values have increased 3.14% for fiscal year 2021-22. Fluctuations in property tax revenues through the second quarter are due primarily to timing. • The majority of sales tax revenues represent funds collected for the second and third calendar quarters of 2021 as well as the first advance of the city’s fourth calendar quarter. For sales occurring in the third calendar quarter of 2021, the most recent data available, key gains were seen in amusement parks, motor vehicle manufacturing, gasoline stations, general merchandise stores and traveler accommodations. • The city has collected significantly more transient occupancy taxes in the first half of the fiscal year than in the same period in the prior year because many of the city’s hotels were fully or partially closed during that part of the previous fiscal year, and because occupancy rates overall were greatly reduced by the pandemic. The average occupancy of hotel rooms over the most recent 12 months has been 61%, an increase from 49% at this time last year.
Expenditures and encumbrances
Total General Fund expenditures and encumbrances through the month of Dec. 2021 are $125.3 million, compared to $94.3 million at the same time last year. The significant increase is largely due to an increase in transfers, particularly:
• $10.7 million transferred to the new Technology Investment Program in support of the Strategic Digital Transformation Investment Program
• $7.8 million transferred to the General Capital Construction Fund using funds from the fiscal year 2020-21 General Fund surplus
• a $5.5 million additional discretionary payment made to CalPERS, the state pension system, to reduce the city’s unfunded pension liability.
This leaves $96.5 million, or 43.5% of the budget, available to be spent on city programs through the fiscal year ending June 30, 2022. If funds were spent in the same proportion as the previous year, the General Fund would have $112.2 million or 50.6% available.
Excluding the transfers out, contingencies and non-departmental charges, the percentage of available budget at Dec. 31, 2021 is 46.5%, slightly less than the 47.7% available at Dec. 31, 2020.
Enterprise funds
The city’s water and wastewater enterprise funds continue to operate in line with budgeted expectations. The city’s municipal golf course, The Crossings at Carlsbad, continues to exceed budgeted estimates due to higher than expected demand for golf and food and beverage services.
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Mid-year budget review
The city initiated a mid-year budget review of the Fiscal Year 2021-22 Operating Budget in November 2021. The Finance Department led this effort in collaboration with city departments to forecast changes to revenues and expenditures compared to their current budgets. The mid- year budget review was based on the first five months of actual activity in fiscal year 2021-22.
Departments updated their revenue and expenditure projections for the rest of the fiscal year based on these trends. A key component of the mid-year review was the analysis of spending within departments’ personnel budgets. Many departments identified a trend of underspending in personnel budgets because of such circumstances as vacancies and retirements. There were no substantial updates to the departments’ revenue budget estimates.
The City Manager authorized a number of individual budget transfers between General Fund departments to accommodate mid-year budget requests. Staff have identified General Fund budget savings that absorbed all of the budget transfers, resulting in a zero-dollar budget impact to the General Fund, as shown in the table below. Total budget transfers to and from each department consisted of various smaller transfers. These came as a result of:
• Actual personnel budget savings through December 2021 • Projected maintenance & operations budget savings
• City Council-approved salary increases that were greater than had been anticipated based on assumptions used during the fiscal year 2021-22 budget process • Distribution of final vacation pay budget to departments for costs through December 2021
• Budget requests approved by the City Manager during the mid-year process • Other salary adjustments approved or pending approval outside of the normal operating budget process
Department Net transfers
Policy & Leadership Group $105,000
Administrative Services - Administration $5,000
- Human Resources 52,000
- Finance -29,000
- Innovation & Economic Development 29,000
Community Services - Administration 21,000
- Community Development -159,000
- Housing & Homeless Services -179,000
- Library & Cultural Arts -303,000
- Parks & Recreation -410,000
Public Safety - Fire -319,000
- Police 456,000
Public Works - Administration 20,000 - Construction Management & Inspection 13,000
- Environmental Management 93,000
- Facilities & Fleet -44,000
- Transportation -4,000
Miscellaneous non-departmental 653,000
Total $ 0.00
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Exhibit 3 provides more details on the individual requests approved by the City Manager as authorized in Resolution No. 2021-132, in which the City Council adopted the final operating budget for fiscal year 2021-22 and established controls on changes in appropriations for budget funds.
Requested changes and transfers
During the mid-year process, several departments made requests to change their budgeted full- time or part-time personnel counts and to make a related General Fund budget transfer, actions that require the City Council’s approval. All of these requests can be absorbed within the current General Fund budget for FY 21-22.
1. The Communications & Engagement Department is requesting to convert four part- time printing and graphics positions to two full-time community relations manager positions, reducing the need to hire outside consultants to support community engagement efforts. This change would result in an annual savings of $4,100 as well as stronger community relationships and more efficient operations. • Due to the increasingly fast-paced nature of communication today, part time staff in the Communication & Engagement Department face logistical challenges, such as the need to frequently stop work and hand off assignments before they’re completed and re-establish situational awareness at each shift. • Outsourcing community engagement has had mixed results, with some consultants lacking familiarity with the Carlsbad community and its culture. • To meet community members’ changing expectations in how they receive information, use city resources most efficiently and demonstrate Carlsbad’s commitment to sustainability, the Communication & Engagement Department has been gradually reducing the amount of printed materials produced over the past several years. This has reduced the need for staff to handle graphic design and printing.
No modifications are needed in the current fiscal year’s budget to accommodate these changes. Approving this request will increase the city’s number of full-time equivalent positions by two and reduce the city’s part-time full-time equivalent positions count by the same amount.
2. The Library & Cultural Arts Department is requesting to convert two of its three- quarter-time circulation supervisor positions to full-time positions and reduce its part- time staff by 1.22 full-time equivalent position, resulting in an annual savings of $9,400.
• Converting the two existing three-quarter-time circulation supervisors to full- time will improve organizational alignment.
• Circulation has been unable to adequately fill part-time positions and retain part- time staff.
• The ongoing and continuous demands of recruiting results in less mentorship and coaching, which impacts staff development, connectedness and morale. This request for additional circulation supervisor staffing will help address these gaps.
No modifications in the current fiscal year’s budget are needed to accommodate these changes. Approving this request will increase the city’s full-time equivalent position Feb. 8, 2022 Item #8 Page 7 of 36
count by half a position and reduce the city’s part-time full-time equivalent position count by 1.22 positions.
3. The Fire Department is requesting a new full-time community health nurse and the reclassification of an administrative battalion chief to division chief, resulting in an ongoing budget increase of $209,000.
• A new community health nurse position will support public and workforce health requirements and serve as a public health specialist and health care provider. • The position will improve the department’s response to current and future community health concerns by centralizing responsibilities managed by Human Resources, Police, and Fire.
• The position will coordinate continuing education needs with system performance to improve service delivery and patient outcomes.
Some of this position’s responsibilities would be:
• Referring underserved community members to health care resources • Acting as a liaison between the Police Department’s Homeless Outreach Team and emergency medical services for case resources and referrals • Treating not immediately life threatening medical calls for assistance • Serving as the city’s representative on the county’s Public Health Compliance Team
• Developing and coordinating public health education programs • Managing department Continuous Quality Improvement Program for EMT and Paramedic pre-hospital care and transport
• Helping to manage emergency medical services administrative responsibilities • Administering vaccine and testing programs
• Assisting employees by providing public health information The request to reclassify the administrative battalion chief to division chief is contingent on the City Council’s approval of the new community health nurse position.
This reclassification would allow for a more equitable workload in the department’s leadership. It will enable the department to have one division chief oversee training and emergency medical service programs and another division chief, the position proposed to be created through the reclassification, oversee beach lifeguards, technical search and rescue, professional support services and wellness programs.
The community health nurse would also assume some of the responsibilities currently overseen by the current administrative battalion chief, which allows the department to redistribute administrative roles among the department’s leadership.
A $209,000 transfer to the Fire Department’s budget from General Fund savings is needed in the current fiscal year’s budget to accommodate these changes, which can be absorbed by the current total General Fund budget. Approving this request will increase the city’s full-time equivalent position count by one position.
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4. Staff request the City Council approve a transfer from the General Fund and several enterprise funds to the Carlsbad Municipal Water District to eliminate a liability. • During fiscal year 2020-21, CalPERS required the city to combine the separate city and CMWD accounts for certain other post-employment benefits into a single account.
• The CMWD account had been funded at a higher percentage than the city's account, so when the accounts were combined, it resulted in the General Fund and various other enterprise funds owing the water enterprise fund a cash transfer, which was recorded as a liability due from the other funds and an asset due to the water enterprise fund at the end of the 2020-21 fiscal year.
• Once this budgeted transfer is approved for FY 2021-22, cash will be transferred, and the liability and asset will be eliminated.
• This request does not result in any fiscal impact to the city overall, but does require the City Council’s approval of the following transfers out of these accounts:
Fund Transfer
General Fund -$993,748
Recycled Water -$26,659
Wastewater -$46,534
Solid Waste -$7,980
CMWD +$1,074,921
Options
1. Approve the Communication & Engagement Department’s request to convert four part- time printing and graphics positions to two full-time community relations manager positions
• Increases the efficiency and effectiveness of the city’s community engagement program without increasing the cost
• Reduces the need to hire outside consultants to support the city’s community engagement efforts
• Responds to the community’s changing preferences for how to get information • Supports the city’s sustainability efforts by reducing the use of printed informational materials
• Does not require additional budget in FY 21-22 and thereafter
2. Approve the Library & Cultural Art Department’s request to convert two of its three- quarter-time circulation supervisor positions to full-time positions • Converting the two existing three-quarter-time circulation supervisors to full-time will improve organizational alignment
• Addresses continuing challenges in filling part-time positions and retaining part-time staff
• Allows for more staff development, potentially improved morale • Does not require additional budget in FY 21-22 and thereafter
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3. Approve the Fire Department’s request to create a new full-time community health nurse position and reclassify an administrative battalion chief to division chief • Allows the ability to efficiently respond to future community health concerns • Enables better coordination to provide health care resources and support to community
• Provides a full-time staff position committed to meeting community and departmental needs
• Improves balance of employee workloads
• Requires a one-time transfer of identified General Fund budget savings to pay for FY 21-22 costs
• Requires the department to eventually address long-term office space solution once staff return to headquarters
4. Approve a transfer from the General Fund and several enterprise funds to the Carlsbad Municipal Water District to eliminate a liability
• Would eliminate the liability due to CMWD on the city’s annual comprehensive financial report for fiscal year 2021-22.
• Does not result in any citywide fiscal impact
Fiscal Analysis
The costs of approving all three department requests can be absorbed by the General Fund during the current fiscal year. The Fire Department’s request will result in an ongoing budget increase of $200,000. If all three department requests are approved, the city’s total number full-time equivalent positions for full-time employees will increase by 2.50, and the total number of full-time equivalent positions for part-time positions will decrease by 2.22.
The fourth request involving the transfer of budget and funds to CMWD will not result in any fiscal impact to the city.
Next Steps
Staff will continue to provide quarterly economic and financial updates through the COVID-19 emergency.
General Fund budget will be transferred to departments based on the City Council’s approvals.
Departments will work with Human Resources to carry out the requests and personnel additions. After budget is appropriated for the post-employment benefits-related transfer, a cash transfer to CMWD will be made and the recorded liability owed and asset due will be eliminated.
Environmental Evaluation
This informational report does not constitute a “project” within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment.
Public Notification
This item was noticed in keeping with the Ralph M. Brown Act and it was available for public viewing and review at least 72 hours before the scheduled meeting date.
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Exhibits
1. Economic Scan Fiscal Year 2021-2022, second quarter
2. December 2021 Financial Status Report
3. List of City Manager-approved department mid-year requests and City Council previously approved items
4. City Council resolution approving fiscal year 2021-22 mid-year requests and fund transfers
5. City Council resolution approving the appropriation and transfers to eliminate an existing liability
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1 Second Quarter, Fiscal Year 2021-2022
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