ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUBCOMMITTEE
Staff Report
Meeting Date : Oct. 17, 2022
To: Economic Development Subcommittee
From: David Graham, Chief Innovation Officer
Staff Contact : David Graham, [email protected] Subject: Economic Development Strategic Plan Update
Recommended Action
Receive an informational report regarding the Economic Development Strategic Plan, discuss and provide a recommendation to adopt the strategic plan.
Next Steps
Should the subcommittee recommend, th e economic development strategic plan would be presented to the City Council and considered for adoption.
Discussion
Economic development staff worked with RSG Group on the development of an Economic Development Strategic Plan to help guide economic development efforts over the next three to five years. The economic development strategic plan will support City Council's goal of Economic Vitality as noted in the Carlsbad Strategic Plan 2023-2027, which was adopted on October 11, 2022. This item provides an opportunity to hear an update from staff and RSG Group regarding the strategy (Attachment A).
The proposed economic development strateg ic plan was created with input from numerous stakeho lders, including businesses, business organizations, residents, workers, the Economic Development Subcommittee and internal staff from numerous departments. RSG Group leveraged their expertise as economic development consultants, as well as the analysis of The Concord Group, which conducted a market study for Carlsbad (Attachment B).
The proposed strateg ic plan is broken into two parts. The first part is the strategy itself , which is meant to last three to five years with overarching economic development goals that include:
Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs
Develop Workforce and Attract Talent
Grow and Support Key Industries
Encourage Placemaking and Engagement
The second part is the action plan (Att achment C). The action plan contains numerous tactics that can be pursued by the city to achieve the four goals contained in the strategy . The action Oct. 17, 2022 Item #2 Page 1 of 173
plan also contains factors such as prioritization, cost, estimated timeline, departments engaged, and key performance indicators (KPI) to measure success.
The action plan is meant to be revisited on an annual basis and updated to correspond with changing market condition s, economic needs, and future challenges. As conditions change, certain actions may be elevated in priority, timeline updated, or KPls adjusted to more accurately respond to futu re needs.
Public Notification
Public notice of this item was posted in keeping with the Ralph M. Brown Act and was available for public viewing and review at least 24 hours before the scheduled meeting date.
Exhibits
1. Attachment A
2. Attachment B
3. Attachment C
Oct. 17, 2022 Item #2 Page 2 of 173
Oct. 17, 2022
Attachment A
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2 0 2 2
STRATEGIC PLAN
{ City of
Carlsbad
Item #2 Page 3 of 173
Methodology
Market Study
Community Engagement
• Demographics
• • . .. . .
••• Businesses, Startups, and Entrepreneurs
. . . . . • • • • •
4: Encourage Placemaking and Engagement
•
Appendix A: Market Study
Scott Chadw ick Dav id Graham Laura Rocha
• • • Deputy City Manager
Oct. 17, 2022 : .
Matt Sanford
Econom ,c Deve lopment
. . . ...
The Carlsbad Economic Development Strategic Plan is a roadmap that will guide the City's economic development activities for the next five years. The Strategy comes at a critical time for the City and the community. Given the pandemic , subsequent recovery, market pressures, and international conflict, it is more important than ever to identify Carlsbad's economic development strategies and to prepare for future challenges. The Strategic Plan provides flexible and agile guidance for Carlsbad to address City Council's goal of economic vitality: fostering a healthy local economy .
Carlsbad is pro ud to have an engaged commun ity, and like so many of the City's previous and concurrent planning efforts, businesses, residents, and stake holders helped shape the Strategy w ith t heir input and feedback. The Strategy has coupled this feedback with data driven insights from a market study to shape recommended actions.
Economic development is a collaborative effo rt, and is not limited to one department, group, or organization. The Strateg ic Plan thoughtfu lly invo lves multiple City departments, local and regiona l partners, workforce and talent, residents, and the broad and diverse bus inesses that support the community.
The Strategic Plan focuses on four areas that cap italize o n Carlsbad's strengths , while addressing our cha llenges and opportun it ies. In add ition, there are meas urable object ives that reta in the necessary flexibility to allow for response to chang ing economic conditions that w ill occur ove r the life of this Strategic Plan. Economic development initiatives are dynamic, fl uid, and are multi-faceted as they exist beyond a single category. Strategic objectives and actions purposefully overlap multip le categories, sign ifying the intertwined relationsh ip within economic deve lopment.
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOM IC DEVELO~ ffi- ~RAT E8~1SN~iN I 3 I Methodology
The Economic Development Strategic Plan will serve as a supporting document to the Cityw ide Strategic Plan and bui ld on the already successfu l and vibrant Carlsbad business commun ity. There are eight main components that have gone into the EDSP.
Resident &
Workforce
Outreach
Identify Goals
and Strategic
Objectives
Market Study
The Concord Group conducted a market study that
identif ied current market conditions and trends
in Carlsbad and provided detailed information
on demographics, employment, and emerg ing
industries. The findings from the market ana lysis
informed the proposed strategies and can be found
throughout the Strategic Plan as they relate to
each goal. The fu ll report is an attachment to the
Strategic Plan.
• Key growth areas include high paying industries
such as Life Sciences, Technology, and Cleantech
• From 2019 to 2020, the inflow of residents from
Los Ange les and San Francisco and outf low of
residents to Riverside County increased
• The hospitality & tourism sector saw a large
emp loyment decline from 2018-2020, driven by
the pandemic along with challenges associated
with finding and retaining workers and reopening
in an uncertain environment
• Carlsbad holds a higher share of class A
office space in North County compared to its
neighbors
• Key industries such as sports innovation & design
and hospitality & tourism decreased employment
between 2018-2020
• Downtown San Diego is increas ing its life science
office space footpr int and can pose a threat to
Carlsbad's ability to attract new companies and
talent to the marke t
• Office space in Car lsbad is relatively affordab le,
and coupled with desirable demographics, and
can attract high wage businesses
• The high job to labor market and forecasted
growth of househo lds earning over $100K over
the next five years may fuel growth in Class A
office space
• Carlsbad's flex space rents are lower than its
neighboring cities, allowing it to take advantage
of the demand for life science flex space in the
greater San Diego region
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~ffi-~RATE8~1Sf.Jli{i.N I 4 I Community Engagement
The City of Carlsbad is comm itted to engaging community members in decisions affecting their lives. In add iti on to the market study, a robust engagement strategy was implemented that incorporates feedback from residents, business owners, business support orga nizations, economic deve lopment resource partners , City Council Economic Development Subcommittee, and City staff. Stakeholder feedback was collected through :
• Resident and workforce workshop
• Four busine ss stakeholder workshops
• Social Pinpoint idea wall
• Meetings with City staff
• Prev ious outreach efforts conducted via
Cities GPS
• Prev ious outreach efforts for the Citywide
Strategic Plan
• City Council Economic Development
Subcomm ittee Meetings
A SWOT analysis documented findings from the
efforts mentioned above, as well as community
& regiona l assets for economic development,
and opportunities for the City. After cros s
referencing this ana lysis with the existing economic
development prog rams, strategic goals and
objectives were deve loped that filled the gaps
between existing programs and identified needs.
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~ ffi-#!,+ RATE8~t18~~i_N I 5 I City Profile and
Demographics
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HOUSING
UNITS:
47,734
Oct. 17, 2022
POPULATION:
115,302
HOTEL ROOMS
4,900+
1.6 TOTAL JOBS:
78,135
TOP
BUSINESS
CLUSTERS:
EDUCATIONAL
ATTAIN ME-NT:
Oct. 17, 2022
24.6%
Graduate or
Professional Degree
2.9%
City of Carlsbad Economic Development
Strategic Plan Goals
GOAL 1: Support Small Businesses,
Startups & Entrepreneurs
Support Sma ll Businesses, Startups &
Entrepreneurs in partne rship with loca l and
reg iona l collaborato rs, suppo rting the long-term
viability of entreprene urs and small businesses in
Car lsbad.
GOAL 2: Develop Workforce
and Attract Talent
Deve lop and attract workers and talent by
provid ing skills, reso urces, and support for
current and future jobs.
GOAL 3: Grow and Support
Key Industries
Grow and support key indu stries by providing
and creat ing reso urces for these industries to
th rive in Carlsbad's economy.
GOAL 4: Encourage Placemaking
and Engagement
Encourage a sense of connect ion in our
com m unity by building upon our successes and
promot ing access to eco nomic deve lopment
reso urces and opport unities.
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONO MIC DEVELOP ~ !f~ATE cfieS..fti~R ~ !l~ J 8 I Carlsbad has been a long-stand ing collaborator with
local and regional business resource partners to
assist its diverse business community and promote
entrepreneurlsm . Small businesses owners and
entrepreneurs create local employment opportunities ,
increase economic resilience, and lend to our sense of
place. Over 90% of businesses in Carlsbad are small
businesses with 50 employees or fewer . Residents and
visitors alike enjoy the mom-and-pop retail shops and
restaurants that enhance the culture of the community.
The COV ID-19 pandemic changed the nature of
work and how business is conduct ed. Remote work
allows emp loyees to live in Carlsbad while working
for a company located in a different city or even
state. Ninety percent of senior execut ives expect
some remote work to continue permanently .
The pandemic also influenced an increase in
entrepreneurship, as members of the work force
looked to alternative means of income stabi lity.
The pandemic accelerated an already lively
entrepreneur ial spirit in Carlsbad as 900 home
based businesses sprung to life amid the height of
COV ID-19. Additiona lly of the bus inesses located
in Carlsbad for less than a year almost half are
designated as startup s.
Oct. 17, 2022
Carlsbad staff is dedicated to building a business
friendly env ironment. It is important that the City
remains flexible in facilitating business development
with the ebbs and flows of the market. The
regulatory landscape for businesses is continual ly
evolving, and by remaining flexible and proactively
responding to regiona l, nationa l, and global
cha llenges, the City wi ll strengthen its appea l to
growing industries and retain existing businesses
seeking to expand .
Where We Excel
• Desirab le demographics includ ing a large,
educa ted, and skilled labor force
• 82% of businesses surveyed rated satisfaction of
doing business in Carlsbad as excellent or good
• Proven econom ic resilience and agility during
COVID-19 response with creation and support of
Sma ll Business Loan Program , Mediation Program ,
and Ready Carlsbad Business A lliance support
• Robust partnerships with business organizations
such as the Chamber of Commerce, Carlsbad
Village Associa t ion, and Visit Carlsbad
-
• Support ing small business and business
organizations through programs such as the
banner program, Gift Carlsbad, Cyber Security
Program, and future technologies impac t report
• The City Council's Legislative Committee
monitors potential legislation that may affect
businesses
• Community Development staff created a How to
Open an Eating Establishment guide for potentia l
restaurant owners
• The City has proven its resilience and agility
du ring the pandemic by creat ing and
implementing essentia l programs through the
Economic Recovery and Response Init iative,
such as the Tenant Rent Defe rral Program and
mediation services, for small businesses
Challenges We Face
• There have been historical cha llenges navigating
City permitting system, part icularly processing
time, and communication
• Businesses express frustration and conf usion
with signage requ irements
• Some businesses and developers find the Zoning
Code confusing
• Land use policies are perceived as outdated and
lack flexibility
Opportunities for Growth
• The nature of work is changing, and the City
has an opportunity to design programs around
th is shift
• The implementation of a new permitt ing
system provides staff an opportun ity to increase
the number of permits and applications ava ilable
online
• The City offers a free pre-applica t ion program,
however many customers, deve lopers, and
residents are not aware of this option
• As the City contin ues to improve permitting
time lines, there is opportunity for continued
growth
• The City can capitalize on the strength of the
relat ionships w ith loca l and regiona l partners
Goal 1 Objectives
1.1: Educate the public on the permitting and
entitlement process and provide City staff
with know ledge and resources to work with
businesses and provide such information
1.2: Imp rove customer service experience during
the permitting process
1.3: Empower small bus inesses and entrepreneurs
w ith resources they need to be successful in
Carlsbad
1.4: Embrace the changing nature of work and what
that may look like for Carlsbad businesses
1.5: Increase engagement and support for women,
minority, veteran, and disab led-own businesses
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~MlilJ ,#;TRATE~~i~&f ilt?~ I IO I With excellent community amenities and services, such
as top-rated K-12 schools, medical and recreational
facilities, and public safety, it is no surprise that business owners choose to start their businesses in Carlsbad
to take advantage of the quality of life the community
affords. Carlsbad Is job rich and an employment hub for surrounding cities, with a job to labor ratio of 1.6 and approximately 80,000 jobs . Almost 25% of the Carlsbad
workforce live and work In Carlsbad, the highest of any other city in North County.
Carlsbad has desirable demographics and a large,
educated, and skilled labor force. Approx imately
35% of residents have bache lor's degree, and
roughly 25% have grad uate or professiona l degree.
Between 2011-21, the Car lsbad median income
increased approximately 40% and the population
of households that make over $150,000 increased
by roughly 17%. Converse ly, the popu lation
of households that make less than $100,000
decreased by 18% over the same period.
Because of the high cost of living, data shows that
over half of the workforce in hospitality & tourism,
leisu re, and retail - key Carlsbad industries - live
outs ide of Carlsbad. These workers face further
challenges with limited options for reliab le and fast
pub lic transportation options.
Where We Excel
CULTIVATE.
BUILD.
LIVE.
CONNECT
• Key growth areas inc lude high paying industries
such as Life Sciences, Technology, and Cleantech
• There are six colleges and univers ities within 30
miles (MiraCosta College, Cal State San Marcos,
UC San Diego, National University, University of
San Diego, San Diego State Univers ity)
• Car lsbad's Life in Act ion talent attract ion program is a recruiting too l for Carlsbad companies
• Car lsbad adopted a Sustainable Mobility Plan to
help improve transportation -related safety, reduce
greenhouse emissions, and increase travel choices
for residents and workers
• The City partners with the County of San Diego
to offe r a Down Payment Assistance Program for
first t ime homebuyers
• Carlsbad offers housing programs such as a Home
Repa ir Program and Section 8 Vouchers to help
keep housing affordab le
• The City recently implemen ted the Permit Ready
ADU program to encourage construction of
affordab le housing options
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY O F CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~Mrffi,#~TRATEB~i~&f ,lt?~ I 11 I Challenges We Face
• Businesses are experienc ing difficulties in hiring
because of sma ll applicant pools, compet ition ,
demand for higher wages, high cost of livi ng,
child care issues, and more
• Reg ional mobility issues contribute to lengthy
commute times and decreased qual ity of life
• Hospitality & tourism and other industries that
support visito rs are struggl ing to get workers
because of the high cost of living
• From 2019 to 2020, the inflow of residents from
Los Ange les and San Francisco and outflow of
residents to Riverside County increased
• High traffic coup led with a lack of mobility
opti ons can make it difficult for the workforce,
residents, and visitors alike to trave l around town
• Hospitality & tourism saw a large emp loyment
decline from 2018-2020, driven by the pandem ic
alo ng w ith cha llenges associated with finding
and retaining wor kers and reopening in an
uncertain environment
Opportunities for Growth
• By impl ement ing programs identified in the
Housing Element, Carlsbad has an opportunity
to address housing issues in conjunct ion with
crea ting opportunities for economic vitality
• Carlsbad can capitalize on the changing nature
of work by being proactive abou t the creation
and design of economic deve lopment programs
to incorporate new workforce trends
• Car lsbad's exce llent schoo l districts and access
to six higher educat ion institut ions allow an
oppor tunit y to create and sustain wor kforce
development programs to comple ment the key
ind ustries in the City
• By implementing programs in its Sustainable
Mobility Plan, Carlsbad can create opportunities
for economic vita lity and additio nal mobi lity
options to connect the workforce to these
oppo rtuniti es
Goal 2 Objectives
2.1: Enhance workforce training and talent
attrac ti on reso urces to suppor t Carlsbad's
key indu stries by partnering w ith K-12
schoo l districts, reg ional highe r educat ional
institution s, and other citi es in the region to
support talent development and linkages w ith
key industries
2.2: Creat e a more con nected City and cap italize on
existing digital tools to promote digital equi t y
2.3: Through the implementation of the Hous ing
Element prog rams, address housing issues
while promoting econom ic vita lity by providin g
the workforce additiona l housing opportunities
to be able to both live and work in Car lsbad
2.4:T hrough the implement ation of the Sust ainabl e
Mobility Plan programs, mindfu lly create
opportunities to promote econom ic vita lity by
prov idin g the Car lsbad workforce additiona l
mobilit y opt ions
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CAR LSBAD ECONOM IC DEVELO~Mm},#?TRATEB~~Af&f ilJ'..Rt\J I 12 I Adventure S
Net Ports
Carlsbad generates a large volume of its gross regional product (GRP) from manufacturing, the largest industry
by employment. Professlonal, scientific, and technical
services are the next largest components of the City's
GRP which includes include technology , life sciences, and other innovation industries. These sectors were minimally affected by the pandemic recession, and continued
growth is anticipated due to resiliency to recession.
From 2010 to 2019, Carlsbad was a top performer in
San Diego County in emp loyment growt h within the
art s, entertainment, and recreation sector, howeve r
emp loyment decreased dramat ica lly during the
pandemic. The forecasted growth in these sectors
post-pandemic is strong, with an expected annual
growth of 7% throughout San Diego, but some
sectors of the economy may not recover all the jobs
lost during the pandemic in the next five years.
Where We Excel
• The City's Economic Intelligence and Insights
(Ei2) Program sheds economic insights on the
business climate of Carlsbad, allowing the City to
proactively respond to cha llenges
• Staff works directly with key industries looking to
relocate or expand within Carlsbad
• The City has strong partnerships w ith loca l
business organ izations
Work
• Between 2010 & 2020, Carlsbad businesses
attracted $23.4 billion in venture capita l, w ith the
life sciences industry cluster accounting for 66%
of total investments
• W ith near ly 16.2 patents obtained per 1,000
workers, Carlsbad outpaces tech hubs such as
San Francisco and San Jose in this category
• Carlsbad has a compet itive life science office
market with the second lowest office rents in the
San Diego area
• The "Doing Business in Carlsbad" site provides
key information for businesses looking to expand
or locate in Carlsbad
• Carlsbad holds a higher share of class A office
space in North County compared to its neighbors
• Carlsbad is home to a number of tourism
destinations that benef it both visi tors and
residents, including beaches, nature pres erves,
parks , natura l landscapes , open space, lagoons ,
wi ldlife corridors, Lego land, golf courses , flower
fields, and retai l outlets
• The Carlsbad Tourism Business Impro vement
District (CTBID) amp lifies Carlsbad as a
dest ination without using City dollars
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY ,OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~~,#~TRATE~~~~&f ilJ.JN I 13 I Challenges We Face
• Key industries such as sports innovat ion &
design and hospita lity & tourism, decreased
emp loymen t between 2018-2020
• Changes in work dynamics , like remote work ,
showed that office space in Carlsbad may be
sensitive to impacts
• The high cost of living is prohibitive for many
employees in enterta inment, reta il, hospitality &
tourism to live in Carlsbad.
• Downtow n San Diego is increasing its life science
office space footprint and can pose a threat to
Carlsbad's abil ity to attract new compan ies and
talent to the ma rket
• The Inland Empire has lower hous ing costs than
Carlsbad and the San Diego region, increas ing its
appeal to workers
Opportunities for Growth
• Residents and workers want more connected
and frequent public transportation to move
workers to and from jobs
• Econom ic Intelli gence and Insights (Ei2) Program
can be expanded to prov ide critica l dat a on key
industries , allowing t he City to be proactive and
nimble
• Strong partnerships with loca l business
organ izations allows for cooperat ive
programming
• Office space in Carlsbad is relative ly affordab le,
attracting high wage businesses
• The high job to labor market ratio and forecasted
growth of households earning over $100K ove r
the next five years may fue l growth in Class A
office space
• Car lsbad's flex space rents are lower than its
ne.ighbo rin g cities, allowing it to take advantage
of t he demand for life science flex space in the
greater San Diego region
Goal 3 Objectives
3.1: Evaluate opportun ities to improve mobilit y for
v isitors, residents, and workers
3.2: Connect businesses in key sectors with data
and resources they need to thrive in Carlsbad
3 .3: Ass ist businesses in growing industries such as
tech, life sciences, cleantech, sports innovat ion
& des ign, and hospitality & tour ism, among
others, which are looking to relocate or expand
in Car lsbad
3.4: Balance support between the needs of
residents and businesses in hospita lity &
tour ism, and enterta inment
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOJ ~,#~TRATEB ~~c!Rc5» ilJ'~ I 14 I ' t
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GOAL 4: Encourage Placemaking and Engagement
Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities .
Carlsbad has a strong commitment to engaging residents
and businesses. The City is active across various
social media platforms, however improving access to
information for businesses and augmenting the impact of the City's existing platforms to include businesses as an audience will allow the business community and workers
to know more about what resources are available to
them . There is an opportunity to open new channels of
communication and promote stronger connections with
residents and businesses alike.
Carlsbad's beaut ifu l parks, beaches, and public
places natura lly foster placemaking and gathering.
The vibrant and thriving Vi llage is a center of
act ivity, art, and culture . These asset s bolster
quality of life and shou ld be leveraged to attract
and retain worke rs.
Where We Excel
• Carlsbad has an engaged and involved
communi ty
• Joint communications with the Chambe r of
Commerce, Carlsbad Village Association, and Visit
Car lsbad show unity
• Strong public reception to the City Manager 's
news letter
• Strong soc ial med ia presence
• The Citizens Academy empowers residents w ith
information about their local government
• Bienni al business survey prov ides ongo ing
insights into bus iness climate
• Car lsbad Connec t s App is a centra lized locat ion
for act ivity and news , and to report c hallenges
• The City of Car lsbad is comm itted to the
importance publ ic art and estab lished an A rts
Commiss ion to prov ide direction and suppo rt for
the development of a variety of arts in the City
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONO MIC DEVELO~Mtmi#lrnATEB~~chl&f ill~ 1 , s I Challenges We Face
• Messaging for busi nesses does not cut t hrough
t he digita l clutter to reach recipients
• Most economic deve lopment progra ms in t he
City are not well bra nded
• The City can better leve rage the "Do ing Business
in Carlsbad" page to be a consolidate d, spec ifi c
econom ic develop ment webs ite o riented toward
businesses w ith current informat ion on progra ms
and activi t ies
• Some sections of the Village Barrio Master
Plan and the Sig nage Ordinance are unclea r or
confus ing
Opportunities for Growth
• Reach new demographics by expand ing
successfu l soc ial med ia and other out reach
prog rams
• Harness add it iona l data fro m Economic
Intellig ence and Insig hts (Ei2) Program to info rm
decis io n making and em powe r local bus inesses
w ith data
• Create partnersh ip bet ween the Arts
Com mission and Economic Deve lopment
Subco mmittee to deve lop placemaking tactics as
an economic engine
Goal 4 Objectives
4.1: Build upon the successes of the commun icat ion
effo rts in t he City to promote the City's
econo mic develop ment programs
4 .2: Enhance phys ica l placemaking opportun it ies to stre ngth en the connection between peop le and
the places they share
4.3: Leve rage City-ow ned assets and right of way to
create a sense of place
Oct. 17, 2022 CITY OF CAR LSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~ ~,#~TRATE B~i~&f ilt?RN I 16 I Sources
Source Reseracher Date
City of Carlsbad 2021-2029 Housing Element City of Carlsbad 2021 City of Carlsbad Social Pinpoint Idea Wall April - May 2022 City of Carlsbad Sustainable Mobility Plan City of Carlsbad December 2020 City of Carlsbad and RSG Community Outreach Workshops February, March, and May 2022 COVID-19 Inclusive Recovery Assessment and Implications Cities GPS August16, 2021 Economic Scan First Quarter FY 2021-2022 City of Carlsbad November 2, 2021 2021 City of Carlsbad Business Report BW Research Partnership December 2021 2022 Carlsbad Market Study The Concord Group February 2022 2022 City of Carlsbad Business Report BW Research Partnership May 2022 Oct. 17, 2022 c 1rv OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELO~~-,#lrnATE~flSl~cm' ill?RN 111 I DRAFT
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I. MARKET OVERVIEW
1. Regional Location and Summary Findings
2. Employment
A. Overall
B. Industry Composition
C. Shift Share/Quotient (MSA
comparison also)
D. Employment Nodes (break
between a few uses, medical,
industrial)
E. Commuting Pattern s (detailed on
distance/direction - north, south
etc)
F. Migration Patterns
G. Expo Line (dev plans, maps)
3. Demographic Summary
4. City Demos - GDP growth, recent
developments, large future projects, largest
employers
A.
B.
C.
Tour ism
Industry Composition
Major Employe rs
RSG EDSP
Carlsbad, CA
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OFFICE OPPORTUNITY
1. Office Market Performance - (Overall,
Class A, Medical, Creative, Industrial)
2. Office Demand
3. Submarket Capture Scenarios
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY
1. Retail Market Performance - (Overa ll,
Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regional)
2. Retail Deman d
3. Retail Opportunity Summary
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Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad
Report Prepared for
The City of Carlsbad
March 23 rd, 2022
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1 . Regional Location and Summary Findings
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C. Shift Share/ Quotient (MSA
comparison also)
D. Employmen t Nodes (break
between a few uses, medical,
industrial)
E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on
distance/direction - north, south
etc)
F. Migration Patterns
G . Expo Line (dev plans, maps)
3. Demographic Summary
4. City Demo s - GDP growth, recent
developments, large future projects, largest
employers
A.
B.
C.
Tour ism
Industry Composition
Major Employers
RSG EDSP
Carlsbad, CA
11. 111.
2 • THE CONCO RD GROUP
OFFICE OPPORTUNITY
1. Office Market Performance - (Overall,
Class A, Medical , Creative, Industrial)
2. Office Demand
3. Submarket Capture Scenarios
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY
1. Retail Market Performance - (Overall,
Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regiona l)
2. Retail Demand
3. Retail Opportunity Summary
February 2022
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THE
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Real. Estate
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Economic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad
Report Prepared for
The City of Carlsbad
March 23 rd, 2022
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1. Regional Location and Summary Findings
2. Employmen t
A. Overall
B. Industry Composition
C. Shift Share/Quotient (MSA
comparison also)
D. Employment Nodes (break
between a few uses, medical,
industrial)
E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on
distance/direction - north, south
etc)
F. Migration Patterns
G. Expo Line (dev plans, maps)
3. Demographic Summary
4. City Demos - GDP growth, recent
developments, large future projects, largest
employers
A.
B.
C.
Tourism
Industry Composition
Major Empl oyers
RSG EDSP
Carlsbad, CA
11. 111.
2 ••
THE CONCO RD GROUP
OFFICE OPPORTUNITY
1. Office Market Performance - (Overall ,
Class A, Med ical , Creative, Industrial )
2. Office Demand
3. Submarket Capture Scenarios
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY
1. Retail Market Performance - (Overall ,
Class A, Smaller, Larger, Regional)
2. Retail Demand
3. Retail Opportunity Summary
February 2022
21690.00
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EXHIBIT 1-1
REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION
NORTH COUNTY, CA
Coriyon Loh .
WildotnOJ
Murri•ta
~, ..
MunMtu
ttotSp, •ng•
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North County
Fottbroolt
,.
JANUARY 2022
So.,.
':!. "°* -...
Poumo v°'1.-,
Vt,1~Ceow..-
Escondido
The blue a rea represents North County San Diego , the
geographical limit as defined in the 2021 North County
Indicators (NCI) report.
The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad , Del Mar, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside , Poway, Son
Marcos , Solano Beach, Vista and a portion of northern San Diego City.
The region also includes several unincorporated areas that make up most of north counties more inland parts.
$un,:b..W
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lom on Oro¥tl Son Oisgo
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logon MtliQht~ to,odite
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,,ty
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C:J North County
-~-0.....
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Solana Beach
San Marcos
Poway
Oceans ide
Escond ido
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r
Del Mar
Carlsbad
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EXHIBIT 1-1
REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION
NORTH COUNTY , CA
C-onyo, n l.oke
Wildomo.t
Murri .. o
_,,,, ..
Mu•f'-tta
Hols,,ring,
T.mecul o
North County
Follbroolc
JANUARY 2022
Sa ..
~--SIG
The blue area represents North County Son Diego , the
geog rap hical limit as defined in the 2 02 1 North Cou nty Indicators (NCI) report .
The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad , Del Mor, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside , Poway, Son
Morcos, Solano Beach, Vista a nd a portion of northern Son Diego City.
The reg ion also includes several unincorpo rated areas that make up most of north counties more inland ports.
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V;Jt.,o•
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f'altru
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; ...
-- North San Diego
CJ North County
,-
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Solana Beach
San Marcos
Poway
Oceanside
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~
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Carlsbad
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los:lC M'UO
flocifk hoch
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ti4ig hl1 ~
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eo,1ooio
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THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1
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REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD MICRO -MARKETS
CARLSBAD, CA
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Village
Tamarack Point
South Beach
Robertson _Rancho Carlsbad
Rancho La Costa
Poinsettia
Olde Carlsbad
North Beach
La Costa Ridge
La Costa Oaks
Village
La Costa Greens_B ress, Ranch_Rancho Carrillo
Industrial Core_KeU y Ranch
Hedionda Point
Calavera Hills
Barrio
Aviara
21 690.00 Reg Loe: Regloc
JANUARY 2022
At•-- \
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For the purposes of this onalysis, TCG has identified
following key neighbo rhoods within the city that may be a driver of strong potential eco nomic growth : Olde
Carlsbad , The Village,
and
*Market name found on city of Carlsbad neighbo rhood
boundar ies map
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Report Prepared for
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March 23rd, 2022
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I. MARKET OVERVIEW
1. Regional Location and Summary Findings
2. Employment
A. Overall
B. Industry Composition
C. Shift Share / Quotient (MSA
comparison also)
D. Employment Nodes (break
between a few uses, medical ,
industria l)
E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on
distance/direction - north, south
etc)
F. Migration Patterns
G. Expo Line (dev plans, maps)
3. Demographic Summary
4. City Demos - GDP growth, recent
developments, large future projects, largest
employers
A.
B.
C.
Tourism
Industry Composition
Majo r Empl oyers
RSG EDSP
Carlsbad, CA
11. Ill.
2 • THE CONCO RD GROUP
OFFICE OPPORTUNITY
1 . Office Market Perfo rman ce - (O verall ,
Class A, Medical , Creative , Ind ustria l)
2. Office Demand
3. Subma rket Captu re Scena rios
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY
1. Retail Market Performance - (Overall,
Class A, Smaller , Larger , Regional)
2. Retail Demand
3. Retail Opportunity Summary
February 2022
21690.00
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EXHIBIT 1-1
REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION
NORTH COUNTY, CA
JANUARY 2022
Conyan I.alee
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tiii lt, Co,ono do
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The blue area represents North County Son Diego , the
geographical limit as defined in the 2021 North County
Indicators (NCI) report.
The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad, Del Mor, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside , Poway, Son
Morcos, Solano Beach , Vista and a portion of northern Son Diego City.
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Sur'tY(hl
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ll«<ogo
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Ii,-;
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CJ North County
Vista
Solana Beach
San Marcos
Poway
Oceans ide
Escond ido
Encinitas
Del Mar f'ly
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EXHIBIT 1-1
REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION
NORTH COUNTY , CA
Conyo,n I.alt•
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JANUARY 2022
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The blue area represents North County San Diego, the
geograp hica l limit as defined in the 2021 North County Indicators (NCI) report
The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad , Del Mar, Encinitas , Escondido, Oceanside , Poway, San
Marcos, Solana Beach, Vista and a po rtion of northern San Diego City.
The region also includes severa l unincorporated area s that make up most of north counties more inland parts .
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HofCOMb
v.woe•
o;- 8on-ti0II
Wo,nw
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c.,
Unh.,..i4f
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...,_
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Sprin$S
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r...,
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C=:J North County
-°"'""
,oam O,o,,,
8~ [~
Vista
Solana Beach
San Marcos
Poway
Oceanside
Escondido
Encinitas
Del Mar
t'" Carlsbad
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THE CONCO RD GRO UP
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·• .. .,
Legend
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Tamarack Point
South Beach
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Rancho La Costa
Poinsettia
Olde C arlsbad
North Beach
La Costa Ridge
La Costa Oaks
Village
La Costa Greens_Bressi Ranch_Rancho Canillo
Industrial Core_KeUy Ranch
Hedionda Point
C alavera Hills
Barrio
Avia ra
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ul .,.
The city of Carlsbad has been broken down info 16
distinct neighborhoods defined loose ly by the city of
Carlsbad's Neighborhood Boundar ies map and broken up
by corresponding block groups.
~
....
For the purposes of this analysis, TCG hos identified
following key neighborhoods within the city that may be a driver of strong potential economic growth: Olde
Carlsbad , The Village,
and
*Market nam e found on city of Carlsbad neigh borhood
boundaries map
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REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD LAND-USE BREAKOUT
CARLSBAD, CA
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EXHIBIT 1-1
REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD SURROUNDING TRANSIT
CARLSBAD, CA
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EXHIBIT 1-1
REGIONAL LOCATION NEIGHBORHOOD RESIDENTIAL PROFILE
CARLSBAD
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Village
• Residential densities established in 2007 permit homes to be built in a manner appropriate for small downtown.
• Residential and commercia l uses may exit side-by -side or in an mixed use format Buildings maybe attached or detached, and located near the front property line, or allow for an area for either small courtyards, outdoor dining or open space, and/ or addit ional landscaping.
Olde Carlsbad
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• Olde Carlsbad is the city's oldest neighborhood , doting to the late 1800s , Up on the hills, there ore still some historic homes with views of the ocean. • Further west, streets have a mix of mid-20th-century bungalows, cottages, and tract homes. • Apartments and Condos along El Camino Real ore close to the neighborhood's shopping and dining. l.
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• Nestled between Interstate 5 and the Pacific Ocean
• Residential is a mixture of seve ral beochfront Moster planned communities and mobi le home pork
• Homes along Poinsettia Ln ore close to the neighborhood's shopping and dining. • • Industrial Core
• Apartments and single family residences located at north corner of the area with spectacular Ocean views and easy access to work and olfroctions. ' 'Poinsettia/ Aviara
• Set in the hills of Southern Carlsbad, overlooking the Pacific Ocean and Batiquitos Lagoon. • The communi ty is mostly residential , Many properties hove views of the ocean, Botiquitos Lagoon, and Avioro golf course.
- , •·t" Most of the homes in Avioro ore fairly new, having been built in the 90s. There hos been limited new construct ion in Avioro (one exception is Vista Del Mar) but several newer subdivisions (The Boy Collection, Emerald Point) hove bee n built nearby.
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THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1
0 REGIONAL LOCATION - KEY NEIGHBORHOOD RATIONALE
CARLSBAD
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JANUARY 202 2
listoricolly popular locot.On for reloil ~elopment. Highest shore of Accommodations and Food Services job sector within the city (2019). This Sector is the second highest N mployment sector within the city of Corlsbod .
• "il!istoricol Development mop shows a high concentration of retail and office development in o relatively small pocket that makes up the village neighborhood across all observed decodes predoting the 197C1s.
Highest level of annual net absorption at 7 .dk SF with overage NNN asking rents of $42 and o five year overage growth of 9.5%. All metrics indicate o currently strong retail morlcet From 2019-202 {COV10-l9 recession) NNN incremed 34% to $45, but hove since hod a corr-ection in 2021 dropping 8%.
Future Demand in the Village is negative -455 SF onnuoUy, indicating o slight overKl!lurotion in the marke t for naw retail space.
Conclusion: The Village is o key ~4!Pf~_iV tourism hub within the city with strong rents, plenty of retail/ eatery type employment and resiliency to COVID related economic forces . ~
Similor to the Village, Olde Corisbod has historicolly b.en on area of high levels of retail and office development ocross the lost frve-six decodes .
The strongest local employment s&dor in Olde Corlsbod is the Retail sector followed by the Accommodations and Food Services s&dor.
Olde Carlsbad is one of a few neighOOrhoods within the city that sow positive net absorption of retail spaces over the lost four quarters with NNN ask ing rents at a strong $39.
Future retail demand for Olde CaNsbod is o positive 12K a nnually, indicating o need for new retail spoce lo occommodote for the growing populofion and HH base of that neighborhood.
Sou1h Beach
located on the Pacific coastline and bookended by the i-5 freeway, most of South Beach's historical retail and office development hos occurred along the freeway. • One of the lowest NNN reta il spoce asking rents at $24, indicati ve of the neighborhoods lock of doss A retail s.poce. • Future retail demand for South Beoch is. pos.itive SK annualfy • Office market voconcy rotes ore at o low of 2.6%, the lowed of all observed time-periods. and hove not seen any new deliveries since 2009.
Industrial Core
The Industrial Core is the employment hub of the city and considering the high inflow of doily commuters, the employm e nt hub of the major surrounding cities.
As of 2019 the industrial core •mploys the most individuals across the citie5 top employment sectors, ir-.cluding !he lop two sectors, Manufacturing and Profeuioncl Serv.
Industrial Core is the community with highest level of office inventory by SF at 3.4M SF as of 1022 Unlike most neighborhoods surveyed, and having the highes t level of current office inventory, the industrial core hos experienced a positive five year overage of annual positive net absorption (SF)
Industrial Core is attaining on overage of $31 in gross direct rents for office spoc e over the last five years, relatively the middle of thee. of all observed neiQhborhoods. _J L! ,.,.~ -
Poinsettia neighborhood currently has the second highest level of office space at 1. lM SF Ou1side of 2020- 21, Poinsett ia has experienced mostly posi tive annual net obsofption.
Future annual retail demand is at a slight negative ot -39 SF annually.
Poinsettia and Aviora ore attaining the highest level of NNN retail asking rflnts SS 1 and $48 respectively with low vacancy rotes of 0.8% (Aviara) and 2.3% (Poinsettia~. The overall average NNN asking rents in Carlsbad overall is $39, considerably lower. • f't6imilor to Industrial Core, Rcncho Lo Costa has a hi9h concentration of employment in-C0~fsbocts top five key sectors with its highest share of employment in the 3-etoil ond accommodation and food services s.edor.
• #oncho la Costa also hos a high NNN retail asking rant compared to other observed neighborhoods at $48 • "1tuture annual retail demand for Rancho Lo Costa is ot I Sk likely due to lowe r levels of inflow of spending from outside of the area compared to other neighborhoods sud, as the industrial core with o very high level of inflow spending resuhing in o net negative need for additional retail spoce. " QI MO+i M•itttiiffiNttfflM South~ Beach Industrial Corridor Aviora OQ lflH 1,925 3,569 1,779 1,01 4 3,116 4,739 'lC>olCarl, bad 4.4% 8.1% 4.0% 2.3% 7,1% 10.7% .i:, bWol Jobs 4,957 4 ,709 5,117 26,095 2,420 12,956 ,-.,1 Carlsbad 6.3% 6.0% 6.5% 33.4% 3.1% 16.6% --.J -fo'p Seeton ( 1 ) 3,425 2,087 2,805 13,078 1,720 4,335 7,035
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% of Carls bad
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9.0% 5.5% 7.4% 34.5% 4.5%
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61,247 78,135
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THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1
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SITE ASSESSMENT
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
~ Cha racteri stics
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• Regional Location
+ Major Coastal City within San Diego's North County Region. + Surrounded by 5 of the major cities in the North County region whom all have strong port ions of their employment base traveling into Carlsbad for work including: Oceanside and Vista to the North , San Marcos and Escondido to the east, and Encinitas to the south.
• Accessibility and Surrounding Area
+ Two major freeways run through the city of Carlsbad, the interstate 5 freeway running along the coast north and south bound, and the 78 highway that runs along the northern border of the city running east to west. + Access to the coaster commuter rail with a stop in the village neighborhood of Carlsbad offering residents alternative transportation access to surrounding sites and employment nodes. Rail connects Carlsbad to southern San Diego with final stops in the downtown core and as far north as Los Angeles. • Employment
• Employment Sectors
+ In the San Diego Metro, Professional Services Employment industries saw the least impact during COVID -recessionary period of 2020. Industry shows the least growth potential but a key sector of data processing is showing strongest growth and shift share potential within the Professional Services industry. + Medical employment industries also experienced considerab le declines in 2020. but with potential overall forecasted growth on par with the San Diego metro employment overall. Notable sectors of this indisutry include: Dental Offices ('19 -'20 -12 %) , Nursing and Residential Care ('19-'20 -5%), and Medical and Diagnostic Labs ('19- '20 -6.5 %) - Tourism and recreation based employment in the San Diego metro were significantly impacted during 2020 .
Forecasted growth is strong, but tourism industry overall will not recover all COVID related job losses in the next five years. -o • Overall Assessment
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+ Opportunity to continue growth of key neighborhoods such as the employment rich industr ial core. Several companies look to either expand their footprint or relocate to the city of Carlsbad in the coming years in key industries such as biotech and communication, making the area a prime location for high earning jobs. + In the city of Carlsbad, forecasted popu lation growth of households earning over $1 DOK annually over the next five years is strong and should further fuel the need for employers offering high earning jobs in moderate to higher-end office space.
Evaluation
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DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1
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RETAIL SUMMARY
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
r-:iEmployment Char a cteri stics
N • Carlsbad 's retail sector is anchored by severa l key retail nodes: Carlsbad Premium Outlets (South Beach Neighborhood) , The Forum at Carlsbad (Rancho Lo Cosio Neighborhood), Carlsbad Plaza South (Olde Carlsbad Neighborhood), The Shoppes at Carlsbad (Olde Carlsbad Neighborhood), and Village Faire (Village Neighborhoo d). • Historically, Carlsbad hos a lso enjoyed a reosonobly strong tourism sector that feed's into retail activity for the city.
• The Son Diego -Carlsbad MSA experienced significant declines in tourism and retail trade employment sectors due lo COVID-recession forces.
• From 20 10-20 19 of the major cities observed in North County, Carlsbad (9.9% annuali zed growth) was only outpaced by Son Morcos (11.2% annua lized growth) in shift shore and annual job growth in the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Sector. • At the Son Diego -Carlsbad MSA level, Leisure and Hospita lity and Accommodation and foods services sectors ore poised for the strong snap -bock from the COVID-recession period with a ll exceeding 7% annua lized job growth and over 10% growth in shift shore . over the next five year period.
Retail Characteristics
• Ca rlsbad hos over 5M SF of retai l space . It hos the highest amount of reta il space among all the major cities surveyed in North County.
• Though occupancy rotes ore slightly down over the post two years ('20 92.3% vs '2 1 9 1.5%) the five year overage hos hovered just over 95% and the ten year overage at 96%. • Of the neighborhoods surveyed within Carlsbad, the Industria l core a nd South remained relatively resilient to COVID-recession forces with occupanci es that increased during the recession period to upwards of 98%. The Village was less resilient during the onset of COVID-recession restrictions (86.6%), but hos since recovered to just over 94% with a five year historica l overag e of 95%.
~ • As of 202 1 NNN lease rotes in Carlsbad ($37 .6 1) grea tly exceed the North County overage 3 ($25 .39) and is highest among the surrounding major cities surveyed. :it • The Indus trial Core and Village ore both ach ieving $42 NNN lease rotes with Olde Carlsbad N close behind with $39 NNN Iese rotes.
Demand
• Based on TCG's demand assump tions , Carlsbad is projected to capture just 12K SF of future ";J/ demand annually , and acco rding to current opportunity gaps hos over -330K SF of ~ unfulfilled retail space, due to high level of inflow spending form outside of the city. ~ • Considering that tou rism a ccounts for a portion of reta il spend ing and further toking into ~ account the high level of emp loyee inflow to Carlsbad from surrounding cities, there ore ;: several categories tha t ore experiencing leakage , in particu lar with key retail categor ies such as -..J eating and drinking estab lishments and clothing and accessories stores .
W • These categories hove some of the highest leakage in Carlsbad neighborhoods that ore either historical more tourist oriented ( South Beach , Village ) or hove a high concentration employment node (Industrial Core ).
21690.00 Site Eval: Retail
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THE CONCO RD GROUP
DRAFT
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NConclusion
EXHIBIT 1-1
RETAIL SUMMARY
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
N • Despite COVID-recessionary forces, Corlsbad will continue to have a moderately strong retail and tourism employmen t base. As other office/ ma nufacturing emp loyment nodes continue to deve lop coupled with a growing popula tion and HH base ('2 l -'26 2.5% growth), the continued need for moderate to high-end retail space with various dining and shopping options . The inland regions that are more residential oriented may benefit most from new large scale retail spaces that are closer to home rather than traveling to more coasta l areas that have well established large retail nodes. The employment rich industrial core will also benefit from more walkab le retail spaces that offer various types of eateries and boutique shopping experiences . ......
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THE CONCORD GRO UP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1
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OFFICE SUMMARY
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
rv Employment Charac te ristics
N • Carlsbad's office use largely consists of medical, and financial/ professional services. • Carlsbad holds o higher concentration of jobs than its surrounding four cities, which lends itself to a higher inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad who do not reside within Carlsbad. As of 2019 19% of a ll Carlsbad employment was concentrated in Finance/ Real Estate/ Prof. Services sector, positions that are traditionally performed in an office setting. The next closest being Encinitas at 13% of its employment base filling these roles. • Carlsbad also holds a high concentration of individuals employed in the heal th care profession, with over 5,000 individuals employed in the sector accounting for 8% of total employment in Carlsbad. Of the four surrounding cities they are only second to Oceans ide with 7,000 individuals employed in the sector, accounting for 15% of their tota l employment. • Key employment sectors of note that have experienced relative resilience during COVID and ore poised for future growth are: Data Processing ('16-'2 1 11.7% growth, 21-'26 4% forecas ted growth) with a forecasted shift share of nearly 18% over the next five years . Severa l medica l field office use saw significant declines during the initial COVID-recession period, but are since recovering with a few poised for growth in the next five year period. Outpatient care centers ('19-'20 3.5% growth, '21 -'26 3.3% forecasted growth) saw growth du ring COVID-recession period, with strong forecasted shift share of nearly 8% over the next five year period. (Note growth metrics are at the San Diego-Carlsbad MSA Level) Office Characteristics (Class A)
• North County has over 11 M SF of doss A office space a nd Carlsbad hos over 2M SF of doss A office space. Year-to-date North County hos had a total net absorption of 232K SF while Carlsbad hos had 18K SF.
• COVID-Recession had a significant impact on net absorption for Carlsbad with a dip to -56K in 2020, whereas in 2018 net absorption reached 289K and 2019 168 k, showing some sensitivity to economic downturn.
;:::.: • Carlsbad is currently achieving $34 .20 in direct rents while North County is achieving $44 .1 1 3 • The majority of the office space within Carlsbad is doss B product at just over 5M SF space :ii, compared to the 2M SF of doss A. COVID-Recession did hove on impact on net absorption of N doss B product but did not decline to negative until 2021 , showing slightly more resiliency during the recession, but there seems to be o shift in preference in office space towards doss A product considering that net absorption for doss A product increased to 18K SF in 2021 '?J after its drop in 2020 .
~ Demand
.i::,. • Based on TCG's demand assumptions, Carlsbad is projected to capture nearly 124K SF of :;i future demand of North County. Of the nine major cities that make up North County, ....., Carlsbad is poised to capture the highest share of North County with Son Marcos coming in ~ close second at 102K SF.
W • Despite having the highest potential capture of office space in North County, Carlsbad is showing one of the lower shores of potentia l pipeline throughout North County at only 50,000K SF compared to Son Marcos planning the highest amount of pipe line at 1 .4M SF. 21690 .00 Site Eval: Office
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,1 Office Development Heat Mop
as of February 2022
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2021 Sa n Diego MSA Employmen t
2% 3% lo/o
7%
15%
■ Professional & Business Services
■ Leisure & Hospitality
■ Retail T rode
■ Financial Adivities
■ Constrvdion
■ Other Services {except Public Admin.)
■ Natural Resources & Mining
13%
■ Education & Heohh Services
Government
■ Manufacturing
■ Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
■ lnforma1ion
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-1
0 n ,....
OFFICE SUMMARY
CARLSBAD I CA
JANUARY 2022
Of said demand, a subcategory of office space of note is the 'flex' space uses. This subcategory is defined by two key industries: Scientific R&D and Warehousing, both of which show the highest levels of potentia l demand in office space in the county from 2021-22, but will toper off in the following seven years observed. Scientif R&D is of particu lar note in that the category includes life sciences office spaces, on office space in Son Diego that is in high demand over the lost several years.
Conclusion
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• Overall the city of Carlsbad is a hub of employment for the major surrounding cities, its higher level of inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad but do not reside in Carlsbad only further fuels potential demand for high end class A office space. Carlsbad hos shown moderate/ steady growth in direct rents annua lly over the lost 3 year period and relative resiliency in those asking rents through the COVID-recession period. Despite holding a considerably larger shore of current class A office compared to the surrounding cities, there is still potentia l for further growth as demand for this particular use is higher than the surrounding cities in North County. As the economy continues to reopen, workers will flow bock into offices. Employers will look to differentiate themselves such as procuring a state-of -the-art office space with all of the amenity and working spaces desired and that ore becoming more common place in todays evolving office environment. 21690.00 Site Evol: Office
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2017 2018
- Absorption
Deliveries
2019 2020
- De liveries
2021 2022
~Occupan cy
100%
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90%
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75%
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Class A Office Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/ SF)
$40
3 4 .2
$35 1- -- -- --33 .4 3-------3273
3 1 66 3 1.82
$30
$ 25
2017 20 18 2019 2020 202 1
~ C arlsbad
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
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EXHIBT 1-1
RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY - RESTAURANT, FOOD, BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE
CALRSBAD, CA
Carlsbad Copocily
■ Carlsbad Actual Soles
Full Service Restaurants
JANUARY 2022
Resident Spending Capacity vs. Actual Sales - Food, Beverage & Grocery Store Restaurant & Drinking
Places Spending
Drinking Places (Alcoholic
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21690 .00 Retail Demond: Demand - NGAFOl The Concord Group DRAFT
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RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY
CALRSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Resident Spending Capac ity vs. Actual Sales
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GAFO Non -GAFO
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EXHIBT 1-1
RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - CURRENT RESIDENT SPENDING GAP
CALRSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Resident Spending Gap
$200,000
I Carlsbad Spending Gap I [ GAFO r---- ~---------------------, $150,000
8 $100,000
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The Concord Group
DRAFT
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EXHIBT 1-1
RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - ACTUAL TOTAL SALES - RESTAURANT, FOOD , BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE
CALRSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Resident Spending Gap - Food, Beverage & Grocery Store
Restaurant & Drinking
Carlsbad Spending Gap I Places Spending
Negative spending gap indicates
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resident base (employees, visitors etc.)
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~------------- ---------------- ------
21690 .00 Retail Demond: Demand - gap NGAFO (2) The Concord Group DRAFT EXHIBIT 11-2A
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS -TOTAL
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
1999 THROUGH 2026
0 I United Stoles 11 S.DiNO>!!!i! n
~ Growth Growth
f-' 000s Num. Num. Pere. Num. Num. Pere. _-..J --- --- --- --- --- Annual
N 1999 129,226 3,090 2.4% 1,160 45.0 4.0% 0
N 2000 132,018 2,792 2.2% 1,200 39.9 3.4%
N 200 1 132,080 62 0.0% 1,225 24.9 2.1%
2002 130,637 (1 ,443 ) (1.1%) 1,237 12.7 1.0%
2003 130,328 (309) (0.2%) 1,249 11.4 0.9%
2004 131,757 1,429 1.1% 1,270 21.1 1.7%
2005 134,022 2,265 1.7% 1,293 23 .2 1.8%
2006 136,434 2,412 1.8% 1,314 20.6 1.6%
2007 137,978 1,543 1.1% 1,322 8.7 0.7%
2008 137,225 (753) (0.5%) 1,315 (7.5) (0.6%)
2009 131,289 (5,936 ) (4.3%) 1,249 (66.0) (5.0%)
2010 130,337 (952) (0.7%) 1,240 (8.7) (0.7%)
2011 131,922 1,585 1.2% 1,250 9.9 0.8%
2012 134,157 2,235 1.7% 1,283 32.7 2.6%
2013 136,356 2,199 1.6% 1,316 33.4 2.6%
2014 138,922 2,567 1.9% 1,345 28.7 2.2%
2015 141,80 4 2,882 2.1% 1,385 39.9 3.0%
2016 144,333 2,529 1.8% 1,422 37.5 2.7%
2017 146,595 2,262 1.6% 1,452 29.6 2.1%
2018 148,893 2,298 1.6% 1,482 30.3 2.1%
2019 150,900 2,007 1.3% 1,504 21.4 1.4%
2020 142,252 {8,648) (5.7%) 1,385 (118.8) (7.9%)
2021 146,147 3,894 2.7% 1,41 0 25.1 1.8%
Quarter ly
1Q21 142,143 1,374
2021 145,443 3,301 2.3% 1,403 28.0 2.0%
3Q21 147,066 1,623 1.1% 1,409 7.0 0.5%
Forecast
2022 151,810 5,663 3.9% 1,473 63.0 4.5%
2023 154,353 2,544 1.7% 1,500 26.5 1.8%
2024 155,656 1,303 0.8% 1,519 19.2 1.3%
2025 156,224 568 0.4% 1,532 12.9 0.9%
;::;: 2026 156,710 486 0.3% 1,540 8.1 0.5%
(!) 5-YrAvg. 154,95 1 2,113 ---r:i% 1,513 ~ ---r:ii% 3 Historical Average # N 5-Yr 363 (0.1%) (2.5) (0.6%)
10-Yr 1,423 1.0% 16.0 1.0%
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Note: All employment figures represent year end unless otherwise noted Source: Annual- Moody's (updated 0 1/25/2022); Quarterly · BLS 21421.00 Employment Trends: Jobs
6% - _tol Employment(% Chon~ ~
5%
4%
:,
3%
2%
1%
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ii"
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~f~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - Son Diego MSA - - - • United States (line}
THE CONCO RD GROUP
19 DRAFT
0 EXHIBIT 1-2B
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS • BY INDUSTRY
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
2006 THROUGH 2026
n ,-+
j Ann . Growth % MSA Employment
Annual Employment (OOOs) I Forecosl '21 . "26 Shift Share E,JitpYment Industry {000.) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 _ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 % # 2021 2026 Nom. % Gb rnment 218 222 225 224 230 229 228 230 232 236 242 246 248 249 237 235 241 244 248 250 252 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 14.7% 14.4% -0.3% -2.0% R~ Trade 148 148 142 132 131 133 137 141 144 147 147 149 148 146 134 139 142 143 142 141 140 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% - I.I% 0. 1% 0 8.7% 8.0% -0.7% -7.9% MNSifocturing 104 103 103 97 96 97 98 100 102 107 108 109 112 116 11 4 114 115 114 112 111 109 1.8% -1.7% 0.2% 1.0% -0.9% .J 7. 1% 6.3% -0.9% -12 .4% E<kl, tion& HeohhSe,v ices 138 144 154 163 165 168 175 181 186 193 199 204 209 217 210 214 224 232 235 235 235 2.9% -3.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.9% 4 13.4% 13.5% 0.1% 0 .6% Construmon 93 87 76 61 55 55 57 61 64 70 76 80 84 84 82 86 91 92 92 92 91 3.2% -2.6% 5.3% 2.5% 1.1% 1 5.4% 5.2% -0.2% -3.3% P,oJ.,.;onol&Bv,,n.., Sen,i~ 218 222 221 203 203 205 211 219 223 229 235 239 249 256 248 254 259 256 255 256 258 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.9% 14.8% - I.I% -7.0% Leisure& Hospttolity 155 160 163 153 153 154 "160 167 176 182 190 196 200 202 145 153 176 191 205 217 224 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 9.6% 12.8% 3.3% 34.1% Finonciol Adivtties 84 80 75 70 67 67 70 71 70 71 73 75 76 77 74 73 75 75 75 74 75 0 .9% -3.0% • 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% -6.1% ,....._.,w~-•u,.,;,, 29 29 29 27 27 26 27 27 27 28 30 32 33 34 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 2 .3% -3.2% -1.7% 1.9% 0.5% O 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -6.0% Wholesole Trode 46 4 7 46 42 42 43 45 46 45 44 44 44 44 44 41 40 40 40 40 40 39 0.4% -7.0% -3.4% -2.0% -0.1% O 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% -9.1% ""- ....,_J-. l'vbli<Admin.j 48 48 48 47 46 48 49 49 52 53 54 55 56 56 45 48 53 55 57 59 59 1.9% -21.0% 6.9% -2.6% 4.4% 2 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 13.5% lnformotion 32 31 31 28 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 24 24 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 -1.8% -6.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.8% O 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -4.8% Noturol Resou rces&M ining O O 0 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.8% -13.5% 3.9% 1.3% 6.5% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hoot,l,=•ood 00<ool~,ido - 11 7 122 130 136 139 141 146 152 156 163 169 175 180 187 183 188 197 204 206 206 207 3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 11.7% 11.8% 0.1% 0.8% Toto! Non-Form (000) 1,31 4 1,322 1,315 1,249 1,240 1,250 1,283 1,316 1,345 1,385 1,422 1,452 1,482 1,504 1,385 1,410 I 1, 473 1,500 1,51 9 1,532 1,540 """T.9iJ -7.9%1 1.8% -0.2% l .B'K, 25.9 100% 100% Y/YChonge(OOOJ 20.6 8.7 -7.5 -66.0 -8.7 9.9 32.7 33.4 28.7 39.9 37.5 29.6 30.3 21.4 -118.8 25.1 1 63.0 26.5 19.2 12.9 8.1 %Change ! 1.6% 0.7% ! -0.6% -5.0'll, -0.7% U 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 3.0'll, 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% l.4 %!t -7.9%!rJ]fil ' I 4.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5%! CumulotNeGoin/loss, 1.l'li ~------- 2.3% ~ -9% I 4.5% 9.2% 1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
t'---- -11 ;ol~nfo p•~•~K>n ~----t
employment ir, 2014 RehJtn lo pre-COVIO
Employment Growth & Annual Employment Chang e Forecast
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(8'1) ■ Retail T rode ■ Manufacturing
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■ Construdion
114"1
Wholesale Trode
116"1 ■ Other Services (except Public Admin,) ■ lnformo1ion (tSl.l
Natural Resources & Mining
Shift Share: Indicates on industry/ sectors empk>yment growth and competitiveness in the San Diego MSA. It helps determine if o specific industry showed foster or slower growth/ decline in comparison with other industries/ sectors over a certain time period.
Source, Moody's (updated 01/25/2022 )
21690 .00 Employment Trends: lndust,y THE CONCORD GRO UP EXHIBIT l-2B
DRAFT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWNS
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
2009 THROUGH 2026
Tourism Emeloxme[!t lndustriei Ov~ I Emelo;iment lnd!!stries "'
Ann. Growth % MSA Employment Ann. Growth % MSA Employment ----- ---t-> '21-'26 Shift Share '2 l -'26 Shift Share ~-..J '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 ~ _ II_ 2021 2026 Nom. % '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 _ % _ _JL_ 2021 2026 Nom. __ %_ --- --- --- ---N
Govijment 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 14.7% 14.4% -0.3% -2.0% Retail Trade 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -1.1% 0.1% 0 22% 17% -4.9% -22.6% Reta rode 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -1.1% 0.1% 0 8.7% 8.0% -0.7% -7.9% Leisure & Hospitality 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 24% 27% 3.0% 12.7% Manufacturing 1.8% -1.7% 0.2% 1.0% -0.9% .) 7.1% 6.3% -0.9% -12.4% Clothing and accessories stores 0.9% -24.3% 16.9% -3.5% 0.4% 0 2% 2% -0.5% -21.6% Educa1ion & Health Services 2.9% -3.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.9% 4 13.4% 13.5% 0.1% 0.6% Sporting goads stores -1.7% -1.8% 17.4% 1.3% -0.9% 0 1% 1% -0.3% -26.6% Construction 3.2% -2.6% 5.3% 2.5% 1.1% 1 5.4% 5.2% -0.2% -3.3% General merchandise stores -1.1% -7.9% 5.4% -1.1% -0.4% 0 4% 3% -1.0% -24.8% Profnaional & Bus.inn1 Services 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.9% 14.8% -1.1% -7 .0% Miscellaneous store retailers 1.2% -18.8% 1.4% -2.6% 0.6% 0 1% 1% -0.2% -20.9% Leisure & Hospitality 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 9.6% 12.8% 3.3% 34 .1 % Water transportation 10.9% -36.2% -6.7% 64.3% -2.1% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -30.8% Financial Activities 0.9% -3.0% -1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% -6.1 % Passenger Transportation 4.4% -37.5% -15% -12.5% -2.3% 0 0% 0% -0.1 % -31.6% Tror.po,1., WOf"ehouaing & UtitlfiN 2.3% -3.2% -1.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -6.0% Scenic and sightseeing transportation 1.5% -29.7% 28.6% -1.1% 1.9% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -15.7% Wholesale T rode 0.4% -7.0% -3.4% -2.0% -0. 1% 0 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% -9 .1 % Food services and drinking places 3.3% -24.2% 6.6% -3.0% 7.9% 10 17% 20% 2.1% 12.2% Ot"-r S.,.,KM (exc. Public Admtn.) 1.9% -21.0% 6.9% -2.6% 4.4% 2 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 13.5% Accommodation and food services 2.9% -26.5% 5.8% -3.7% 7.7% 12 21% 23% 2.4% 11.5% Information -1.8% -6.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.8% 0 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -4.8% Food and beverage stores 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0 5% 4% -1.1% -22.6% Natural Resources & Mining 1.8% -13.5% 3.9% 1.3% 6.5% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Arts; enterta inment; and recreation 2.2% -36.4% -0.7% -7.9% 9.5% 2 3% 4% 0.6% 20.9% Heohh core and social o»istorw=- 3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 11.7% 11.8% 0.1% 0.8% Total Employment Sector : 2.296 -21.496 5.196 -3.096 mil 39.0 100% 100% Total Non-Farm 1.9% -7 .9% ~ -0.2% IJJiii 25. 9 100% 100% Son Diego MSA Major Employment Sectors Son Diego MSA Key Tourism Employment Sectors ~ 10%
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Fr~ 2009 to 2019, in the San Diego MSA most employment sectors enjoyed stable growth with overall Total Non-Form employment increasing 1.9%. However, with the onset of COVID-19 the tourism se~r felt the highest negative impact with the medical sector showing most resilience, although still showing negative growth.
The professiona l services sector has rela tively shown the least amount of variance in growth across the time periods surveyed, with data processing jobs within the sector showing the most promise for future growth. The sector is showing a relatively low potential for future growth, but that could be due to the industries natura l tendency for minimal sway from each time period . 2 1 A21 .00 Employment Trends: Industry Br.akdown THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
EXHIBIT 1-2B
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTR Y BREAKDOWNS
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD , CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
2009 THROUGH 2026
Me&I Emeloxmen t Industries Professional Se[:,'.ices Emeloxment Ind ustries :-+ Ann . Growth % MSA Employme nt Ann . Growth % MSA Employment --- --- ---f--> '21-'26 Shift Shore '21 -'26 Shift Shore -" '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'2 1 ~ _#_ ~ 2026 Nom. __ %_ N
Amb~ ry health core services 4.5% -3.6% 4.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2 16% 17% Hospijpls -0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0 5% 4%
Nu<'ling or,d rN.KMntiol car• fodlf- 2.3% -5.0% -1.5% 0.0% -0.4% 0 5% 5% Social assista nce 3 .6% 0.5% 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 2 11% 12%
Health c.or• and sociol assistance 3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 37% 37% O ffices of physicia ns 3.0% -4.1% 2.0% -0.5% 1.2% 0 6% 6% O ffices of dentists 2.3% -12.2% 15.9% 2.0% 2.7% 0 2% 2% Offices of other heohh proctilion•• 5.0% -1.2% 11.1% 4.9% 3.2% 0 2% 2% O utpatient core centers 7.3% 3.5% -0.2% 5.0% 3 .3% 1 3% 3% Medtcof and diognostic. laboratories 8.2% -6.5% 3.2% -1.7% 1.8% 0 1% 1% Home health care services 6.7% -2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 0 2% 2% 0th« ambuk,tory heallh C(Jf. MfVtCH 4.7% -5.8% 10.8% 2.3% 1.6% 0 0% 0% Hospitals -0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0 5% 4%
Nursing OM rMid.nttol core fociitie, 2.3% -5.0% -1 .5% 0.0% -0.4% 0 5% 5% 100% 100%
Total Medical Sector: 3.2%i -2.3% 2.6% TR etfil ~
Son Diego MSA Key Medi cal Employment Secto rs
20%
1~ •
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'09-'19 19-'20 20-'2 1 '16-'2 l % # 2021 2026 Nom. __ %_ --- --- - - - --- 1 . 9% Government 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 25% 26% 0.9% 3.7% -5.7% Reol estote 1.3% -1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0 3% 3% 0.1% 2.9% -10.3% Finance and insurance 0.7% -1.3% -4.0% -0.5% 0 .3% 0 5% 5% -0.1% -2.0%
6.9% Secur~ies ond Commodi1y's 1.2% -0.9% -2.2% 1.4% 0 .9% 0 1% 1% 0.0% 1.3% 0 . 7% Professional; scie ntific; and technical seNi 2.5% -1.8% 3.7% 2.7% -0.1 % 0 16% 15% -0.6% -3.8% -3. l % Scientific Research and Ser"Vices 2.0% 1.9% 10.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0 4% 4% -0.1% -2.3% 4 .2% Professional & Business Services 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 2 7% 27% -0.4% -1.6% 7 .0% Management of compa nies and enterpris, 4.1% -1.4% 2.4% 2.0% -0.1% 0 3% 2% -0.1% -3.6% 7 . 7% Finonciol Activities 0.9% -3.0% -1.6% 0.0% 0 .5% 0 8% 8% 0.0% -0.6%
0.1 % Administrative and support services 1.5% -6.4% 0.7% -0.4% 1.2% I 8% 9% 0.2% 2.8%
0. 7% Educotionol services 1.2% -9.6% -4.5% -2.6 % 1.6% 0 3% 3% 0.1% 5.0% - 1 .2% Monetary outhorities--centrol bank 4.9% 0.6% -1 .8% 1.7% 0.5% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -1.0% -5.7% Credit intermediation and related odivitie -0 .2% -1.1% -8.2% -2.5% -1 .2% 0 2% 2% -0.2% -9.0% • l 0.3% Doto processing; hosting and rekJted serv 11.1 % 2.6% 20.2% 11.7% 4.0% 0 0% 0% 0.1% 17.9% Rental and leasing services 1.3% -23.9% 3.7% -3.3% -0.2% 0 1% 0% 0 .0% -3.9% Total Professional Services Sector: 1.7% -3.5 % 1.0% 0.7% uuii ~ j 100% 100% --- -- Son Diego MSA Ke y Profess iona l Services Sed o r
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21421.00 Employment lrends: Industry Breakdown
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THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
n.. .............. ....,,,.. ... ...... ..., ..................... .... 1-,,,..,s--,,... · ........
EXHIBfTl.2C
EMPLOYMENT O INOUSTl'Y GIOWTH
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2010 AN02019
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08 U to 1,11&) 1-.. 1,rn o,,
, . ... ... 20,082 ,._ ».~ 1'11
0.8 .o.~
0.7 .,,,.
.. ,. ...
1.0 2.3'1 4,24 7 11-.. M,M,1- 17'1' 11 2 ft
1.0 1.n 11,n 3 ~ 19,,2,50 ..., o., o.♦'I.
M I... 39,i:1◄ llfo 44,l n I°" 0,9 1311,
1 2 ..,.,. ◄.10 111• ,~ 1-.. , ,
o., ., K .,,,_ 7W, 1,418 1" 0 .7
0. 7 4 ft. 11.,◄n 1" Utwa 1'C o.,
0.7 .,,,. 1,a,o, ?to ,,i..o 2to 10
UUI.D$(i/ft-.»9t"r,,U
10 lO.,_ I.SI> '" U., 1' U
, ... ., ... ,.,.
"' , .. ....
0.7 .,... " -50' 7to 27 /PI 6' o.• 11•
0.♦ I.ft ll,tQ 9" ◄1,"J1$ ft 11 19'"
13 '-0'1. • .,,., \OJ' ~ .0,6 ,~ 1 2 ,. ..
1 .. U•ll,fft, n. 1:J,◄Oo 3'D..♦~
1 0 11' ,o~ n-.. S\,6116 11'111. 1.1 27'1
0.7 -1.,.. 17,-J 5"' , ~..... ft 0.7 .1.311
o.• --.!.!!.----1.!l!.~~_____!1 0.1..:.!1!.
2.7'1 376,:1.0 OS,101 2. 1 ..
I .I 3.N 1 7,362 IS'll '1,1'6 ~ 10 Jn,
1.0 2. 111. JC,..O 91,i. , 12...-, .,,.
From 2010 lo 2019 , within the city of Calrshad ther• or• fovJ" distind neighborhoods identified fCK their empk,ym.,-it growth pot-,fi ol. Th• lop pa-former oaosr. most employm.,-il cot.gories has bMr'I the indUffliol core (grMn) and lhould continu. lob. ffM focus of continued Bf"owlh. Of the sel.:t.d key incklltri•, th• onty s«tor that sow n119~ ..,-.p1oym.,..t growth in !he industrKll COf• wot information, 2.31 which moy be HWI os o M>m~ dytng indwry .
1.11 1.03
Retail Trade
i:
3.Sf\ 3., ,. 3.3%
-7.0%
Retail T rode
s-a 'OOl"'-,,._ •. usc..-..,._,_.., t-s..-.
21 .0,,..(1(1-1 /otiO, --
(I
I
_,J_J_d
2.05 I.BO
1.60 1.24
,_,..
1.02 0.63
Information Professional, Scie-ntific, and Techniccl Services Health Core and Social Assistance Arts, Ent&rfoinmenl, and Reaeotion ■ Vi ll age El Olde Carlsbad □ South Beach □ Industrial Corridor ■ Carls bad ■ Nort h County ·Annual Job G,-owth • 20 10-20 19
16.9"
l -4.0%
1 1.2% 11.5%
1 1.6,
8.6%
S.1% •-"" , ....
T
LJl!I~ ~ □
.J.1% ■ -3.6%
0.0%
-71%
Informa tion Professioool, Scientific, and Techn ical S.rvice.s Heal th Core ood Social Assistance ■ Village II Olde Carl sbad □ South Beach □ Industrial Corridor ■ Carlsbad ■ North County ~ -J
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
- ----
n-t: CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Theki.w......_~ .. 1:,&u.
._.i~1oh~,ltal:
e.c,. , ~Se,,,,ion,Mng " ..botal
EXHIBIT l-2C
EMPLOYMENT• INDUSTltY GROWTH
NORlH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2010AND2019
,...~... . °' t+!f1!!: CoyntY
2010 2019 SHft 1010 2019 SNfl 2010 2019 Snft 2010 2019 Shift 7010 2019 ~ ?910 2019 Shift .l!!!!...O
....Jl ................... ........
,..,,.,., .Jbe. ,._, Sher. ~ ....!"i!I!!...,.._ ~ ,..,,.,., ~ - st-.-5l!f!:._ Nuoft ...l!:!!u. ,......, Sh.t.Sha .. ....fi!l!!..... ....... ..l!!!n. Nun, . 51,o,.s.-. ~,,..,.., ...lbe... ,..,..,. ~Shor. G,f'(, ,..,,_, ~NI,..,, ~ S>.r. ..!J!i:!!.. ,,,,.....,, Oucwfll'IGI. cwwf Oil ond Ga blradion
'-"~
~ "" ~tokltada
.... r,.J.
~~ - ond ~
~ ;~~=CW>dL--.
~ . So.,,t,k,.andl~S--
~ofConpa,-ond(...,p--.. ......,_,s...-. ____ _.._
,..._.,,...,_
HaoM!Cor.ondSooaf~
Ml, E.........,,,._ , ond it.er"°"'°"
~-.:lfoodS-..C..
Ohl'S..-..Cnf,nduding~..........,. caor.)
PubM;hf,,,,,-,,.,...,..,,.
... ,
m
'·"' 2,167
, ....
5,079
"" ,.,
713 ,..
3,◄ 1 4 ,,.
7,310
-4,973
, ....
976
•.125
1,814
"'
909
.. 0
·~ m .. 'l,5 10
.. •.780
"'
1,659
,,. ,.,.,
"'
1,0S1
.. 381
"' "' "' m ... 1,140
,. "' .. 3 ,171
'"' '·'°' "'"
71>S2 ,. 1,00 ,,. 6,213
,. , ... 1
"'
0.7 ·I.°" 1.,~ .. 0.0 -too.or. 17
.. OJ
··"' ,,. ,. , .. .... 1,912
, .. , .. '·"'
7.,..
.. .. , ,. .. , .... ,,. OJ 0.6" 3,410
"'
13 ... "' ,. ... -0.<11'111 ,.. ,. 0.7 • 7.3,1,
"' ,. ·~ , .. ...
"' .. .1,,.. l .425 ,. ,., 1.11, ,., ,. ,., u• 1.,n ,,. , .. ,_,.. U07 ,,. I.I ,..,. 3.327 "'
o., .... ,,.
'"' ..... 1,3A2
.. OJ ...,. 1,741
,. 1, 199 ,. I.I ,.,. ... .. .. ' .. o, ..... I .. .. ., .. o, .. ~ "' .. "' , .... ,,. I A 1.6'l5 ,_.., .. ,,. 8,197 , .. 0.9 .... ..... ,, . "~ l .586 ... OA ..... 1,561 ,. , .. ,jl,201 , .. 1.0 ,.,,. 3,16' , .. , . m "'
3.0 "~ 677
"' "' ,.,, .. 03 -l l.61' .,., "' , . "" ,. ,_, 3.Jli, ... .. "' ... ,.,. . .. 0.11.
"' ,. .. 1,954 .... ·~ ,... , .... ,. ,. 219 ,. . . .... "' .. .. 'l,031 ,. ... ..,. '·"" ... ... 2.808 "' , .. . .... , .... ,,.
"'
3 ,997 .. 1.0 '..1,l'lli 1.7 ..
"' ,. 338 ,. .. , . .,,. 250
'" "' , ... , "'
I.I , ... 1.913 ..
"'
1, 143
"'
OA ..... ,.,., ~
717
"' ,.. '·"' ,., "' "' ,. 0.7 .'1.61'
"' ,. '" ..
0 .. 0.0 -100.CW. 0 .. I .. ·~ .... " .. 0 ..
I ll .. .. , ..... " .. " .. ,., ...... ,., ,. ,., ..
3,752
"' ,, . .... '" "'
738
"' ,., ..... ,_.., ,. 2,857 .. ,.n, , .. 0.7 -I.SY. 197 ,. ,,,. ·~ ,., , ... 9 ,361 '"'
11,, 59 ,,.
1.i'8 1 .. 0.9 ,.,. '" "' ... ,. 1.1
'·"' '·"' "' , .... ,.
3.02 .. .., . .... 2.918 , .. ,..,, '"'
1.0 . ..,. ,.m '"' ..,,. ,,.
733
"' •-• .... 73 .. '" "' ,., ,..,,. '" ,. "' ,.
"' ,. 0.7 .,.,. 190 1• ,,. ,. M ., .... 1,681
"'
1_,329 ,.
"" ,. 0.9 '2.11'
"' ,. ,.,, "' •-• ,,. '2,1.U
"' , ..... "' m
"' ,., M. "' ,. "' "' ,., , .. 1,103 ,. l,'81
"' ·~" ... 0.9 , ... 1,,,s ... 1.780
"'
0 .9 . .,,, 5,919 , .. 9,.317 1:r.
'°' .. ., ... ,. .. "' ,. ,. ""' ... .. ,,,.., ,.
3 ,292 .. 1.0 :us ,.,11 "' ... .. .., ..... '·"' ,. •.ooe ,. '·"' "~ 1.0 ,_,. '·"' .. 1,031 .. ,., , .... 3.7~
"' ,_.,, "' '·"' ,,. ,., 1-"' ..... ""
◄.901
"" •• 0.1" 3,, 11 •• '·"" .. .. , "' ,., "-"' ..... ~ '91 "'
1.0 "'"
2,002 ,. -4.671 ,,. ,,,,s '"'
13 ,.,,. 3 ,o:i,
'"' , .... , ... I.I 2.1'4 7,115 ,,. , ..... '"' ,.,78 .. .. , .... . ..... , 7'4 1,571 ,. 1.0 , .... , .... "' 1 ,2, 5
"' ,...------- ______m_ .....a.~ ..-1!. 0.8 ~_____m_ ---1!. ~ __ ,_. 37,656 46 ,9 76 ,,. ,,_ ... '2.217
0.9 ~ ----1...!l!..~~_.l!,. 0 .3 ---:!..!.!..~ ----1!. ____m_ _.l!,. O.B ~~ ~ ,----1...m ---1!. '""
32,15\
~: ~~ 1 0 ml
20,616 22.397 .... ""'-" •, leci&tot.,"""~-Mr-.
Ex:ludi.,g~--
,_.., ,,_.., ,,. .... '·"' c:::riJ
0 6 ~
.r,,1n 8 7'4
·~ ,.,.
l ,7, 1
"'
3,Al7 c:::ri)
"·"' .,,. ,._.., ""'
1 1 ~
1.0 , ..
61,73' 71,135 2.,1, "' , .... ,,. , .... Dl'il 10 ~ 10,125 , .. 15,14'1~ 16,7◄ 1 .,. 3•.on ... 1.0 ,_,. 19,06 1
"" ,._,..
12.so
12.00 1.50
1.00 lo.so
10.00 From 2010 to 2019 , the city of Carlsbad wos a consistent top performer in growth of key employment cotegorie5. Most Notably in Arts, entertainment and recreation sedo r and the Professional, scientific and technK:ol services sedor . The lotter may be key for continued focus ond growth as this category usually equate s to higher wage jobs.
1.04 1unn11 16nn11
Retail T rode Informat ion
,,. ·~ '·"'
58,,78 ,,. ,,.J08
Shift Share - 2010-2019
0.-11
I
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Health Core and Social Assistance Services
■ Oceanside [J Vista D San Marcos D Encinitas ■ Carlsbad ■ North County "Annoi,ol.Jol, Growth~2010.201,
10.0. 7 .5%
6.0'JI
2.3" 1.9%
0.6 .. 0 .9% o ....
--0.4%
~u•~ -2.6"
-3.8"
I
-7.2"
-11.6"
Retail Trade lnforma1ion Professional , Scientific, and Technica l Health Care and Socia l Assistance Services
■ Oceans ide O Vista D San Marcos D Encinitas ■ Carlsbad ■ No rth County Sou-a-: 'On Tlw Mof>"· usc--..s..-, c.n,., b Ee- St,,odi,. 21604.00 Mocro2:JobG, -
.,.
03 ..... 9,131
"'
8 .752
"'
0.8 -0~
0.0 -100.0'II,
" .. " .. 0.7 ·'2.1'.4
OA 0.2" , .... ,~ 1,1n .. 0.8 .o.rr. ,., 6.6'l5 10.08' ,. "·'°' "' ... ...
1.0 ,.,. 0 .1,1 , .. $5,&46
'"'
I .I , ... ·~ ,.,. 17,773 ,. 19,150 .. o., ..... •-• , ... 39,52, ""
<1'4,l n , .. .. , ,.,.,
1.1 '·"' •.1'3 .. '·"' , . 13
·~ •-• "U'\ ..... ,. 1.669 ,. 0.1 -1.0•
0.7 ...... 12.,n ,. 13,CMI ,. •• .....
0. 7 -'1 1',11, 1,lm ,. . .,., ,. 1.0 ,..,.
I.>, S.lil. ».~2 .. ...... .,, 09 ..... ,~ 10 .9'11, 3,513 .. 6,1'9 .. ,., , .... .. , .1.,,. '1•,5CM "'
11,098 .. o., !, It.
o., , ... 37,861
"'
,2,375 .. 1.1 , ...
13 ·~ ,..,,, , .. 5',0 76 ,,. 10
'·"' IA
'·"'
1~595
""
l3,'406 ,. .. , ··"' ·~ '2.l't. 40,651 ,,. 51,686 ... 1.1 ,_,.
0.7 .1.s,r. 17,883 ,. 15,8-4◄ ,. 0.7 -1.311.
0.9 ----14 ----1..!!l. ----22§.. ~ ___lll 0.1 ..dl!. ,,.. 3 76,342 •55,20 1 ,,. " '"'
57,):'2
'"'
67,196 Ciii) 10
"" 1.0 ',. 3'3,480 · ,,. 412,8'6 ... 1.0 ,,.
2.06 ....L,
1.S,
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
11.2"
9.9%
0.8" 0.7"
Arts, Entertainment , and Recreation
THC CQI\.CORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIIITJ-2C
•;;.';;;:::: =•.::,• NORTH COUN!Y, ....,. DIEGO. CA
I I EMPLOYMENT • tNDUSTIY COMPOSITION _ ..____ 2019
·a.i..cn±H= Swtne-:t. lndt...lrialCorridor ::=:J.;;::::;:~~::1;~::;:-:;---"~~~~~~ ~~~~~~•• Ncw!!JCoynty Jobi Labor .lob& 1,..,,. Jobi labor Job. Labor Jobi labor Jobt labor Jobi Lobo, Q "of 1'of 1'of 1'of "of 1'of 1'of ,r.o1 1'of ,.of 1'of '°' C"'> Jobi Jobi Co,1$obs Carl.Jobi C.«tJobt Jobi Jobi
~ Shor Cork Shor Cothb to Shor Ca,1 Cori fro Cotk Shor •bo to eo.ft.b Shor •ba ~ Carhb Shor 1ba to Shor Horlh to ,o 0 lobl Mum • bad Nvm • ad Lobo Mum • •bod Hum Shc>r. , boa Labor Mum. Short, bod Mum. d Labo,- Mum Shear. od Num • d labor Num Shot. acf Mum • d t.a,,or l'oklfn Stw. Cot.,n!r ~ • ~..le:..~~~ Shore~ .. ~~ ==='= ~ = ~ ~ ~ : 0.0 g : °" 3~ ;,: l 9' b; g : 0'4 I~ : I~ 0~ 1g = ~ 1~ ;,: ~ 6.9 3i ~ : 2g ~ : '!. 17~ : ~l ~~ ~ ;: b! 8,7~ : 'f~ : ~~ fa
o °" air. 1 °" .. 'Iii o.o o °" °" 1a °" s1' o.o 1,5 5" ~ s °" 11' ,.,.o 1, °" o" 1 11' ,,. J., o °" °" 13 o,. 1" o.o 389 ow. ~ ,oo °" n 1.9 1,,n w 2..w, °" 0.1
14.7 3'li 51' 11.t 6'\11, 5" L3 785 6" 10,. ?14 51' 7Y. 1.3 789 6"' 10'4 69 4'11i 11' , .1 34'1 \,t, 1"' 52 51' 11' 6.1 200 8" IW. lOS 4'(, 0'11, 1.9 2,857 _.,. 9"' 1,169 51' 7' 1.3 31,'106 7" 31.336 6" 1.1 10 1" °" a, as •" 0.1 o °" °" 110 "" ,,. o.o ,s "' 1" 112 6% ,,. 0.1 , , 1::11 "'" 361' 112 '°" "' 36.a o °" °" 139 a" °" o.o n .•S9 1s" , ,~ , .1s, 9" " 1.a ss,a'6 1n .a.no 9" 1.1 ,- 36 1'/f, 11' aJ , 111, 3" 0.A 13 0'4 0'A 207 5" 4" 0. 1 316 6Wi 6Wi 107 6'. 7" 3.1 3,180 l2" 5,.. 46 "' ' " 69, 1 32 1'-" OWi 188 6tio l'A 0.2 S.589 ~ ff1' ?,459 S'A 11" 1 .3 19,2SO "' 11,141 "' 0 .9 ~ Trade 314 ,,_ 4" 162 9" 4" 2.0 865 '"" '°" 375 9" .. ,. 2.3 A?A e" 5,i, 178 1o,i, 1" 2.4 3,0'28 12" 35" 95 9'11, 1" 31.9 177 1'Ji OWi 276 ..... '" 0 .0 8.5 76 111' IK 4,05,9 81' "- ?.I AA,l n IO'Mi 45..8'8 9" 1.0 r __ -,w......_ s1 11' 6" " 2" 41' 1.2 o OM ow. 91 1" 1ori o.o 175 a 13" so n. s" 2.s 328 n, 35,i, 20 2" 2" 16A 1 °" ow. ss 2111. ' " o.o 9'29 "' 1ft 1,009 2" n. o .9 6,439 l'Wi 11.010 2" 0.6 ~ 3 °" °" 48 n. ,." 0. 1 47 '" 4" 105 3" n OA 11s ». 13" 48 3"' 4,i, 3.o o, 1" ~ n 1" 2,i, 11.0 62 " n, n n. '" 0.a 1,319 1" 1:n. 1,319 3" 11• 1.0 7.669 n. 12.366 2• 0 .6 ,..__o•w;U,...,.""°' 120 ~ 6" 6 1 4'11, 4" 1.1 37 '" 21' 1.u 3" ,.. 0.3 107 2"' s• "10 411i, 4,i, 1.5 174 3" )9,i, 34 3" '21lo '7..8 66 :;,;,, 1• 109 A"- 1,i, o.o 1,983 3-. t5" 1.74 " ' lot. 1.1 13,04 3" 17,490 3" 0.1 ...,. ~ • •• u •• _. .. ,H-. 19s .n;, 1:,w, 4d ?"- ,.,. 4.1 s3 i,1, 4" 91 7" 6" o.o n, s~ 16" s 2 ». 3" 4 .6 uJ n JOWi 12 21' , ,. 10.1 37 11, °" 14 , , 1"' cu 1,4u n 10,i, 1.094 ni '°' ,_. 9;u o ,-,. 10,490 "' 0 9 ~-.- --- 142 5" 3" 18Y 10"4 3" 1.3 162 3" ?'I, 463 11,i, 5" 0.3 713 14' e,i, '23A I~ 2" J.O 3,911 JS,. 41" 133 12" 1,i, 29.1 169 .,,. 0'A 403 14,i, 1,i, 0.4 0,387 I,,. I 2A"III 6.013 13'. 11,i, U 38,559 8' 56,295 I 11, 0 .1 - --~-~ 0 Oli, Olli AO 2111, 4,i, 0.0 0 0'A 0Wi 96 11' .. ,. 0,0 14' 3-.. 6" l9 7'1, 2" 3.7 1.1n "' S I" 33 3" , ,. 35..S 1 01' 0. 62 2" 1,i, 00 2,28 7 ~ lrA. 994 2" 10'1. 7 .3 6,2 49 1, 9,8 16 21' 0.o ------ 100 3" ,.,. 106 o,i, 4" LS 105 2• 3" 1:16 s• s" o..s 460 9" n ,i, 9'2 5"' 21t. s.o 1,, 13 s" 35,i, n "" 1,i, 19.4 u '" °" 134 51' °"' 0 .1 4,008 5" 1594 2,sn 5Wi n 1.6 21,099 o'lrri, 3 1.345 6'-" o.9 ~ S.-..... 201 ft. 5'-" 175 9'Wi "' l.1 678 l •'-" 1a, AM 17" 1311, 1.4 20S ' " s" 161 9" '" 1.3 A65 2" 12% 103 ..... 3" 4.5 173 7" OWi 286 1o,i, 1,i, 0.0 3,827 51' W 4,914 101' '°" 0 .8 4'1,37.5 K 49.948 '°" 0.8 ~c-.- .... u • ..i..-...- 978 tK 16" 210 11'-" 4Wi 4 .4 223 5 " 4'1, An 11" 8" o.s 3eo 7" 6'-" 215 12" 4,i, 1.a 1,090 4" 1911, 119 111i. ,,. 9., 200 81' °" :us n• "' o.6 S.880 81$ 111' sµs 1211, n; 1.0 S4.07o 13 64,909 13'A o.a ...... t_.__.,.........., 1:,0 ,- 3" s1 3" 4" 2.3 48 n, 1,r. 123 3" 3" o.4 51 1,1, '" " 3" ' " u 3.530 "" 76" 4 1 ..,, ' " ao.2 '° 2" °" 99 3" '" 0.4 4,611 6" 3,- 1,411 3" 11" J.J 13.406 3" 12,696 2" 1.1 =..-:.~ 1:: 3~ ~: 2!! 1;: :: !~ ~~; I~ : ~ I!: ;: ~1 1~~ 2: 1~ l~~ 1: ~ !; 1-;:~ ~: :~: I~ 1~ :: 1!:; 1.1:: ·: ~ ~ 1: :: ~~ :~ 1: !~ ~;~ I: :: :1 ~~~ I~ ~;;! 1: ~~ I\&~ _1& 51' 16,i, 63 3" A1' 4.1 ___1.2!L :2,.. 78" 149 4,i, 9'A. 8.6 0 0Wi 0. 3A ?44~ 0.0 ___Q_ Olli O'I' 27 2Wi 2" 0.0 ~ 0Wi 01' ff 3'JI. 11' 0.0 ~ :2"~~ 3" 111f. 1.1 ~ 11'~ 311,~ Toto! 4,957 .W I.an 41i, 2.6 4.709 Mr. 4,182 51i, 11 5,117 ~ t,7.54 2" 29 26,095 33" 1.116 11' 23 4 :2.420 l'A 2,971 ,.,. 0.8 78,135 ,~ '1,127 9" 1 6 <155,201 5 17,407 09 _..,_..,..___ .557~ -A.ti. 342 1ft ~ 1.6 252Lii} 2" 785 19" $~ 03 1,201~ 8' 395 22""• 3" 30 6,260~ 411\. 222 20,., l'A 212 268CIJj} O'llo 6411 21% 1-. 04 15.14 • ~ 231' 9,909 21..,_ 1l1i, 1 5 67, lt6[Jl!) 9-4,091 Jn, 07 Job&• Industry Share
'°"" 1 18.4% ,.,,,.
16.0'1'
"""
13.9%
14.8%
I I n~ID
R.loilTtOCNI
3.4%
1 °"' n 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%
~ □ n • C7 ............
4.9%
~ □
12.0%
lo
Prohooionciil,Scientific.ONtT~~
■ Vwlog. D06d.Cariabad OSoult.~ Ohdl.taidComib ■ CM.bod 11NcxthCovr,ty .,,,. I
'""
lobor • lndudry Sha,.
12.6%
11.1%
10.1%
'·""
··"" i □ nn i
2.4%
.......... ........._, ~. Sonik,and T~ Sar,ic,.
•v.ac.v- ■ adoC...t.liod o~s.od, Olndv,MriafComdo, ■Carioood IINo.thC:,u,,iy
11.9%
□ nn l ~
HitalhCaroandSoeiol~
12.6%
Hoo.ih Caro cn:I Soocil.......,_
13.6%
6 .0%
2.6%
■ 1.0'll 1.0% (.=J r, I □ ....... ~ . ondlwocr--.
i □ nn 1 □ Mo. ~ ,ond ~
TH. CO,,..CO..OGlCU'
DRAFT EXHIBITl-2C
I
EMPLOYMENT• INDUSTRY COMPOSHION
~~~ .. ~ NORTH COUNTY , SAN DIEGO, C\
-.---.~- =====Diiiiiiili:====::::::i [::::=====~-=:,..,=----...! 2019 y...; f SonMan;o. Entin.t ---= ~ -=--,----= ~ --,,-.- No,rthywnty Jobt " of Labor " of --~Jo"b,=-~,.,..0, 1 __ _ ~Lo~bo~ • -,,,.-.of Jobs "of labor " of Job& " of tabor " of Job. 1' of labor " of Job. labor Q. Mum. Shor,, ~ Num. 7' ~ X:: Num. ~t ~n Num. ~ 7' JOtoot Num. ~• ~n ~ 7' ~.: ~=- Num, -:.r:r ~n Num. Shoiw ~n ,otoot Num. ~ r ~ Mum. 7 ' c:;;;, ~~ ~ ~':' ~ ~':' ~ot ~ ,._,_,.....,._,_,_ 909 2"' 10,., 1,U2 1% 161' 0.8 2,199 5% 25% 1,063 '1% 1'2,_ 2 1 717 11' 8'- 6-42 1"' 7\. 1.1 27 1 1"- 3,i, 186 I" n. 1.5 116 0,. 11' 381 1% 5% 0.5 8 ,752 ~ 7337 1" 1.2 ~
__ _.Ol_o.__ 0 0% 0,- 25 0% 15% 0.0 9 OWi 17'i 18 0% 34" 0.5 0 0,,-, 0% 8 0,. 15% 0.0 I o,. '2'- 6 0% 11" 0.2 0 0,. 0% 10 °" 6'- 0.0 53 ~ 168 0% 0.J ,_ 229 OS 13'. 326 0% I .. " 0 .7 82 0"' 5" 259 O'Ji 15" 0.3 II I 0,. 6% 182 o,. Jo,. 0.6 19 OS 2'- 90 01' 5% 0 .3 389 °" 12'1, '200 0% 8'- 1.9 1.7n °' 2,402 °" 0.7 ...., tructlon 2.510 S'- 8% <1.6S6 6% 151' 0 .5 5,648 13'11. 17" 4,135 8% 13,_ 1.3 3 ,152 9" 11't 2,905 1'., 9" 1.3 738 3% 1"' 1,029 S% 3% 0.7 2,857 4'J. 9" 2,169 S" ,,._ 1.3 32,906 7"° 31,338 6" I.I MD~ -4,780 Im. 9'- 7.298 9" 15" 0.7 8, 197 19" 15" 5,933 11" 11,_ I._. 4 ,22_. 10,. 81/r, ... 692 11,-, 8% 0.9 326 1,- I'- 1.769 n 3" 0 .2 11,459 15'4 21% _.,159 9" 9" 2.8 55.846 12% -48.770 9" 1.1 ""4l-, 1t rrod. 1,659 4'6 9"" 3.599 5% 16"- 0.5 3,586 8" 19" 2,650 S" U\i. L_. 1,781 -4S 9"' 1.966 S'- 10,. 0.9 666 3,0 3,i, 1, 100 S" 6% 0 .6 5.589 7't 29" 2.459 5% 11% 2.3 19.250 _.,. 22.147 4% 0 .9 C!i,\:,nro&i 5.365 1n, 12% 1,901 '°" 11" 0.1 , .201 1o,r. '°" s,3so JO" 12% o.a 3,432 8" e,- 3,'123 "" 9" o.9 3,022 1n. ,,. 2.0,1 9" .s" 1.s e,576 11,- 19-K ,.059 e" 9"" 2.1 44. 1n 1°" , s.s,s "' 1.0 ~ ONlWor~ 1,057 2'- 16% 2 ,027 3" 18" 0.5 9'23 2~ ''" 1,166 '2% 2°'- 0 .7 733 2"' II'- 863 1~ 13,._ 0.8 518 2,. e,r. 445 2% ,,_ 1.1 92'1 l" 14% 1,009 '2% 9"' 0.9 6,439 I~ 11,0 70 ?% 0 .6 ('f,Q)rmotion 381 l" 51Jio 1,565 2% 13% 0.2 192 °" 3% 987 '2% 13,_ 0 .2 251 1,_ 3% 873 2% 11,-, O.J 134 It. 2'-, 659 3"' 9"' 0.2 1,329 2" 17' 1,319 3% 11% 1.0 7,669 2" 12,366 2'K 0 .6 Finonceondlnsvronce 57'9 1,-. 4% 2,13 1 l"'i. 11% 0.3 558 1•~ ,-. 1.389 3% 111ri, 04 S..O 1,-., '"- 1.217 3"' ~ 04 522 2"" 4,-., 851 4% 71iil 0 .6 1,983 :r. 15% 1,7-48 _., lo-i. 11 13,0'8 ~ 17,490 31li 0 .7 t.blm._.'--len,H~ 723 i-,_.. Mo 1,506 2% l ◄" 05 696 2' N 985 2% 11" 0.7 '178 2,i. 8% 789 2,. 8% LO A79 ?,i. 5'9 5-48 n. 6% 0 .9 1,-487 2" 16'Jt 1.094 ~ 10,.. I.A 9,3,0 2" 10,490 21, 0.9 ~~-~- 1,7.tO '"' S'!i 6,208 8~ 11" 0.3 1,954 5% 5" 4,076 ~ lit. 0.5 1,623 4':. 4,_ 3,924 9' JD,i O 4 1,780 ~ . s,. 2,9?8 131i 8111 0 .6 9,387 12'. 2.t'i 6,073 13" II~• 1.5 38,559 8'i, 56,295 1 1" 0 .7 ___ _.'-_.__ 593 1,_ 9"' 1,361 ~ 14" 0.4 219 1, ,._ 818 2" 13'. 0.3 202 0-.. ~. n6 ,,_ 12" 0.3 ll8 1, 2-,. A26 1"' ~ 0.3 2,287 3•• 31' 99◄ 11'. IO'lrr. 2.3 6 .2'9 l"- 9,816 N 0.6 - - •- --- - 3,171 7't 12'1, 5,1A7 7" 16% 0.6 2,031 s, N l,57 6 N 13,-. 0.6 3.292 8% 12" 2,71'3 7" 10,. 1.2 809 A% 3" 1,234 5% 5% 0.7 4,008 5% 15" 2.577 5% 8'- 1.6 27,098 6 " 31,.345 6'- 0.9 Educolionc:il s.r.a. 6,204 I~ 15,i. 6,968 ~ 14% 0.9 2,808 7" N ◄ .2-48 8" lc>,i, 0 .7 6,632 16'- 16~ A,130 10,. 10% 1.6 21)31 9'- 511. 2 ,551 11" 611. 0.8 3.827 5% 9" 4,9 14 I~ JO,,. 0 .8 A2,375 9" ◄9,948 1°" 0.8 l'ldhC-onds.-.t..,.__ 7,052 15" 13'. 9,965 I~ 15" 0.7 3.997 9" N 6,34◄ 12" 12,i. 0 .6 5,287 13" 10,., 5,155 12% 10% 1.0 A.901 22'- 9,_ 2 ,682 1~ 5,-, 1.8 S,880 a,. 11% S,635 11" 9'" LO 54,076 12" 64,969 13" 0 .8 ....,._~ ,.-.~ 1,047 2" 8". 2 ,171 3" 17% 0.5 338 I"" 3% 1.3'25 2" 10% 0.3 651 2% 5"' 1,013 2% 8" 0.6 497 2,. 4'1, SIi 1" , ,_ 1.0 A,671 61Jio 35"- 1,427 3" I I% 3.3 13, ◄06 3% 12,696 1% I.I ~.,..jf..-1~ 6,213 13" 12'. 9.375 12% 18"- 0.7 3 ,0-41 N 6% 5.662 11% 11'- 0.5 4,745 12'. 9% A,380 10,. 8% 1.1 3 .658 16% 7% 2,21 -4 10% ft 1.7 9.-406 12'1, 18% ◄,921 10'5 9"' 1.9 51.686 1 1"-' 53.075 10% 1.0 c--..~......_-...... 1.8'7 4" 12';. 2 ,783 .,, INi 0.7 1. 1'3 3" 7% 1,715 3" 11"- 0. 7 1,4 78 4% 9% 1,391 3'- 9" I.I 1,571 7% 10% 8 10 '" 5% 1.9 2.245 3'- 14% 1,5-40 3"" 9" I.!, 15.8 44 3% 16.!121 3" 0.9 Pvblic:A.dmioistrofion ____m_ i,r. 14"' 1993 3" ~.....Qd,_ ~ l" ---1!.~ 2" ~ __Q_i_ ~ l"I. -lli. -19.1.=!__ 2'- ____illt___Q_J_ ______m_ 1"--»i_~ 2,_ ~ ~ -Z,., ~---1...fil. 3"' ~ -1_.l ~ 1"- ~ 3" _..Qd.
Totol _.6,976 10% 78,1'7 15" 0 .6 42,277 9" 53, JS4 ll'Jf. 0 .1 40.70◄ 9" _.2,565 9" 1.0 22,397 S" 22,590 5" 1.0 78,135 17'% 48,12 7 9" 1.6 455.2 01 5 17. ◄ 07 0 9 ------.... l,63S c:::ii) , ,r. 11,206 l ◄'K 12'1i 0 .3 3,◄27 [iil 5'i. 7,268 1-4% 11" 0 .5 J,1 ◄.J Cii) 5" 6,656 16% 1<>"' 0 .5 2,199 [Jji] 4" 4,759 21"4 7"' 0.6 15.144 ~ 23"' 9,909 21% 11% 1.5 67.196~ 94,091 181' 07 Jobs - Industry Shor•
25% ,-- - ---- ----- - - -------------- - - ------------ - ------- - - - ---- ----- 22% ,--
10%
15~ 15%
13%
'°"
5~
°" Ion ID
2% 2%
1% 0% 1% 1% - f'7l - _, .---, .---, L. ij
12%
i □ nn l n
9%
D
13%
12%
8%
I
Retail Trade I nformotio n Professiona l, Scientific, end Technica l Services Health Core and Socia l Assistance ■ Oceanside a Vista D San Morcos D Encinitas ■ Carlsbad D North County 6%
■ ~nn l n
Arts, Entertainment, a nd Recreation
Lobor - Industry Shore
"" ,-- - --- ------ --- --- - ----- - - - --- - - ---- --- ----;--;:::;--- ------ - --- - ----- - ------------ - - ----- - - . ~
2"
"
"
10% 10%
Retail Trade
13%
9%
8%
i □ nn i ~ ~ □ nn i □
Informat ion Professional , Scientific, end T echniccl Services Heolth Ccre a nd Social Assistan ce Arts, Entertainment, a nd Recrea tion ■ Oceanside a Visto □ Sa n Morcos □ Encinitas ■ Carlsbad tJ No rth County Tl-I C:0'£0«.DC:-AO\P
DRAFT
0 1.00
.... L-S.000.oo
N
soo-00
N
8,000.00
7,000.00
6,000 .00
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00 16.0%
14.0%
12.0'5
1µ;)%
Cl)
3 ~
6.0%
" QI
O'Q
&i0%
N
0 ~
-..J w
0.0%
Retail Trade
2010
Retail Trade
2014
'.1%
..
1 ,, ~-.,.~
EXHIBIT l-2C
EMPLOYMENT - HISTORICAL INDUSTRY GROWTH
CARLSBAD, CA
2002 AND 2019
lhift Share - 2002-2019
lnformoHon Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Core and Social Assistance 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ■ 2007 ■ 2008 ■ 2 009 ■ 2010 ■ 2011 ■ 2012 ■ 2013 ■ 2014 ■ 2015 ■ 2016 ■ 2017 ■ 2018 ■ 2019 2019
11.0%
Annual Job Growth - 2002-2019
2019
2010
9. 201'
2010
Information Professional, Scientific, and T echnicol Services Health Core and Social Assistance 2019
7.5%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ■ 2012 ■ 201 3 ■ 2014 ■ 2015 ■ 20 16 ■ 2017 ■ 2018 ■ 201 9 Sou,a : •On The Map• • US Genius Bureau, Center few Economic. StudiM
11.....00-1,..,0.c........ ...... 27
Arts, Entertainmen t, ond Recreation
201A
2019
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
I t-1 a::>f\.COlO (.a.CXF
DRAFT
0 n r' ...,
_-.J
N
0 ~ - ,-~ ~ ~ ~
Historical Employment (OOOs)
2006 136,434 1,3 14
2011 131,922 1,250
2016 144,329 1,422
2021 143,402 1,411
5-Yr Annual Growth -185.4 (0.1%) -2.3 (0.2%)
10-Yr Annual Growth 1,148.1 0.8% 16.1 1.2%
Employment Forecast (0OOs)
2021 143,402 0.0% 1,411 0.0%
2026 154,287 1,543
5-Yr Annual Growth 2,176.9 1.5% 26.5 1.8%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.2%
1.0%
~
EXHIBIT 1-2C
GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS • EMPLOYMENT
SAN DIEGO MSA & SELECT US METROS
2006 THROUGH 2026
Peer Metros
Nashville Charlotte San Jose Austin Raleigh
Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. N um. Pere. 785 989 905 736 491
786 976 896 812 509
950 1,147 1,080 1,001 600
1,014 1,184 1,086 1,098 619
12 . 8 .__,!,,;l% 7,4 0.6% LO 0. 1% 19.5 ~ 3.9 0.6%
22.8 r 2.6% 20.8 2.0% 19.0 1.9% 28.6 L :l,1%' 11.0 2.0% 1,014 0.0% 1,184 0.0% 1,086 0.0% 1,098 0.0% 6 19 0.0%
1,110 1,305 1,187 1,264 690
19.2 1.8% 24.2 2.0% 20. 2 -Ls,/; 33.1 [,_2.8% 14.2 2.2% Historica l Employment Growth
+ 11-------'-- --.- 11----'--
N 11ego Nashville Charlotte Son Jose Austin Ra~igh
-1.0%
"'C
QJ
(IQ
n,
-~
0 Comf!titive Metros
Boston Los Angeles N ew York San Francisco Dallas
Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. Num. Pere. --- --- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- 2,431 5,746 8,753 2,037 2,917
2,448 5,338 8,719 1,957 3,003
2,699 5,983 9,557 2,328 3,504
2,577 5,749 9,112 2,285 3,754
-24.5 (0.9<i!!l -46.9 (0.8%J -88.9 (0.9%) -8.5 (0.4%) 50.1 1.4%
12.9 0.5% 41.0 0.7% 39.3 0.4% 32.8 1.6% 75.1 2.3%
2,577 0.0% 5,749 0.0% 9,112 0.0% 2,285 0.0% 3,754 0.0%
2,786 6,240 9,870 2,508 4,25 9
42.0 1.6% 98.3 1.7% 151.5 1.6% 44 .6 1.9% 101.0 2.6%
~ I - 5-Yr (2016-2021 ) = 10-Yr (2011-2021 ) --- US 5-Yr --- US 10-Yr I w
Color= Growth Ronk (red= 1-2, orange= 3-4, yellow= 5-6, green = 7-8, blue= 9 -10, purple= 11) Source, Moody's (Updated 1.24.22)
17571.03 GrowthResil,MelroGr-Emp Page 1 of 1 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
0 n r> ,__.
EXHIBIT 1-2D
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO , CA
2009 vs. 2019
~ ---------, .
... - - ... 0
~ ~~~' - <>::' 2009AIIJobs-~61k
~ - •~!{'-r.., G o,l' '-.,;' • '" • , · • • ._. .. • ... -s. o ·o ~;. ,. . ._ ,,_,. • .. • o J qi ~ ·- rn -:_ '".... • c-.~-~ 5 - 699 Job3'Sq .Mllo
■ 700 - 2. 781 Jobs/Sq .Mile
■ 2.782 - 6.252 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ G.253 - 11,111 Jobs/Sq .Mlle
5 . 784; J obo/Sq .1111"
■ 787 - l , 129 Jobs/Sq.Mi kt
■ 3,130 - 7,035 JobslSq.Mil e
-·•.:- • I 201 9 All Jobs. 453k ~ 1•:· -:· • ~ o,O, 6 rn • • C> 0 ., .~.-,,. . •·· -.: . : ,. . •o- .. ,• <>,o l O.
y '~ ,~~;u-.-.~/~f. ~0!, ·
,..,,............ · - - _... -- ,., - f.i-0 • : _: _ _
f
~~~
,=- ...
■ 11,112 -17,359 Jobs/Sq .Mlle
• 1 . BJobs
®.,.
.., J
~(£~ .. L . •
-·! r-
\,....} • ,I ,
0 ...
00 f . ~
. -
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- . . :, . . - " ~ ~-. ·~ .. · .
. : ~ ; • ~ , . • " . •/ · M o_o •'Lo,_:, J"
rf,--' .. · . , _ ,,;· · · ' ·.
~
•. :,, 6,1': ., 0 .,. • ? 0 • '
o .';:. " . :,,, •" lo:o o . • -'
",._. ~-':J>" . • .• : • '.'ci. • ~-, . • . • ~ ,'
. P.'!°'l. ~-'" . -~ o,-., \" i ·3" , .. '. . o o-f ~-
o Pow•y
.... ~,:1°' . • ,-::
... - . ~- r, .;,~i" . . . .
r. ~ -;!;.'lf?F..r,$1!f!lf ~ - -•- .C• -••A ~.:'.o ...
Source: US Census Bureau, Cenler for Economic Studies (On the Map) 21604.00 Mocro2: Heat-Jobs
.,:;-
■ 7,036 - 12.504 JobslSq.lllle
■ 12,505 - 19,535 Jobo/Sq .Mlle
• 1 - 10 Jobs
. -- 0 :
- "" . I
. :s .--:-';. ·\ ·. '.,:;'® .. ~, . . • .. - "· . -'----' q, ' " . • • d ~. "' -- - - 1 .
• p ...
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• L
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~
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• 0 °"--- t.• ;:,._o·
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•• 0 .ft,'o .•
- ;~ ••• 0~
Cl-~:..
~-~ \;• ,u-
~ .. -
0 0
0 T HE CO NCORD GRO UP
DRAFT
0 n r'
-~ ~
N -
s . N -1._ f ' J ,,,. ...
1,..,, - - - ~?,. c-. 0 .,
~ ~ """' ..
> o• • .. - • • I
• .:c O oql
~ ••• !A • • 9 ,..
0 . ,0 J--.:, .. ~ ..
i:h "',_CF.lo ....
. ·1· .. '
I 0
Note : Boxes · iobs per squor e mile liob intensity / density) ·" ~ .., 0 !';.
" .. •,·1• •8 · . ~ ~::••o
Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Mop) 2160 4.00 Mocro2: Heot-Jobs
EXHIBIT 1-20
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO , CA
2009 vs. 2019
5. 297 Jobs/Sq.MIio
■ 298 - 1, 1D Jobs/Sq.MHe
■ 1,174 . 2.634 Jobs/Sq. Mlle
■ 2,635 . 4.679 Jobs/S q.Mlle
■ ,(.680 . 7,309 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
• 1 - 5 Job•
0 6 - 70 Joba
·"· ..
®~
IJL-J-
~
-
Poway
" .
Ith Core • 53K 11 2%)
~
n 2019Heo _
"--- . •,ff:..:.,, . -~½ ·_
• . e?o ; ·o . ~ ' . ..,r·~.s ~ -;' ~
c- 0 " •• '"r~f ·/•,oc . . P-cnS.W. • ~- .~'J?. • "'· . . • . ' _.~ ;,,:_-_-'f_·.~~-. - •,_
:~ 1
r . r
0 ,o :~· . ._. · ~ - ~
. 'd'·~
• .. u·
~~!"l~~,. ~ ~ ...
~ ~ .
• 0 0
5 - 297 Job8J'Sq. llil■
■ 298 - 1,173 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 1,174 - 2.634 Jobo/Sq.Mllo
■ 2,63 5. ,(.679 Jobo/Sq. Mllo
■ 4,680 . 7,309 Jobo/Sq.Milo
, 1 - 5Jobo
0 6 - 70Job•
o 71 - 351 Jobe
e 352 - 1, 108 J obs
• , . 109 . 2,705 Job•
. • - @}
_
0 •
0 ·.;J_• ~ Ji , • t I
,;,_._' '. - !
-r ~ o " - '
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,a ::.: ' uq, IO
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• C
-y
~'.:..,.:it!
T HE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
0 , . .,.,,,. .. , ;_. J 2009 Manufadurmg •
~ \.,,"---½j__ . . '. .;.::: 9 . . ' -...J \ i ·--
Iv • P.-.onSocd> ~ / '("'-J
Oceanside - re _!
, .. ~ 'l-~o -~ · L .,; o
. Q. ,ta • ~
•o
· . • 'i. . :et ~nci~Lta1
I
-----,,
~
On. r\i -:... D.IM•o1 •
(8 • . •
ii ·- ' .,.~ J·Jr l~ ---,,:: -..., ...
s,... a
Nole: Boxes • jobs per square mile (job intensity/ density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs
EXHIBIT 1-20
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO , CA
2009 VS . 2019
5 - 388 Jollll/Sq.Mlle
■ 38, -1,!>40 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
\ ✓ J;1 - 1
~ ... ,~ F; , - ~J ,,.._ ...
5 - 392 Jobll/Sq .Milo
■ 393 - 1,553 Jobs/Sq.MIio
■ 1,!>41 - 3,458 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 3,459 -6, 145 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 6,146 - 9,599 Jobs/Sq.MH e
• 1 - 5Jobs
..
0 0
PoN•y
...
r
~--
·--·<· ~ ...__,,
" 0
,,,......, .A
.., "f ~ ~ ~·-·~7
" ) _._,_ ~c:-· f M• • ·~
, : 7.": r,,-.,_~- · 0
IC!;.. • •.-:. --
, .. •--~-L ~ ,::.- . I - ·------i I ·~
■ 1,5!>4 - 3,489 Jobs/Sq .Mlle
■ 3,490 - 6, 199 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 6.200 - 9,684 JobolSq.Mlle
• 1 -6 Job•
• 7 - 82Jobs
o 83 - 414 Join
.. .A
~\<"'\:of~\ -.'.
• " l •
• ,J -
t9: v
0 0
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
0 n
" -~ \ Ji ~ ~- 1. ~ J{ • •
~~Sol.d,
. ~.
- ~
., - 38K (1 0.5%) I f
..,;,,J, /
~-
Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity/ d;nsity) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Mop) 21604.00 Mocro2: Heat-Jobs
EXHIBIT 1-2D
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO , CA
2009 VS. 2019
5 . 167 .Jobo/Sq.Mlle
■ 168 - 654 .Jobs/Sq.1111•
■ 6S5 . 1,466 Jobs/Sq.ll ile
■ 1,M;T - 2,602 Jobs/Sq.llil e
■ 2,603. 4,064 JobolSq .Mlle
• 1 . 2Jobs
o 3 . 27.Jobs
O 28-134.Jobs
- 1
\
~-~
5 - 193 J C! 194 . 760 o~Sq.Mil e
. . ■ 761 _ 1 '104 obs/Sq .lllle
.. :- ) { ■ 1 705 • Jobo/Sq.M lle • .3,on J
o ■ 3,0 28 -4,727 /b&/Sq .llile
m
ik~i~:::._ - .... ; .
• 5J2 - 1,297 Jobs
' ~ ==---~
-
-
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,~ .o ,
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n
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r · ,
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.
0 _r
u _ · o
THE CONCO RD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-2E
COMMUTE PATTERNS
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
-
r Vista Son Morcos Encinitas North Coun!l
Ge~roeh~: Num . Pere. N um. Pere. N um. Pere. Num. Pere. N um. Pere. Num . ~ Living in Selected Geography
Jobs/l abo r Ratio
Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201
Employed Lobor 48,127 78, 147 53, 154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Jobs/lobor 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9
Com mute to W orlc: Livin in
Distance to Work
Under l 0-Miles 21,391 44% 33,393 43% 26,956 51% 20,189 47% 9,556 42% 215,189 42% 10-24 Miles 11,882 25% 16,071 21% 9,550 18% 10, 137 24% 7,229 32% 151,099 29% 25-50 Miles 5,5 49 12% 13,880 18% 7,200 14% 3,819 9% 1,09 1 5% 54, 152 10% Over 50-Miles 9,305 19% 14,803 19% 9,448 18% 8,420 20% 4,714 21% 96,967 19% Oiredion of Work
Northerly 20,977 44% 26,085 33% 16,373 31% 15,475 36% 10,921 48% 187,276 36% Southerli 21,534 45% 43,538 56% 30,262 57% 17,456 41% 9,722 43% 260,597 50% Eosterly 15,127 31% 28,740 37% 12,036 23% 8,407 20% 6,524 29% 110,534 21% Wesierly 16,111 33% 24,223 3 1% 21,590 41% 21 ,209 50% 6,688 30% 230,425 45% Location of Work
Surrounding Cities
Corlsbod city, CA 11,416 14.6% 2,672 5.7% 2,049 4.8% 1,769 4.3% 2,522 11.3% Oceonsk:le city, CA 11,370 14.6% 13,708 29.2% 5,724 13.5% 3,40 1 8.4% 2,158 9.6% Son Diego city, CA 9, 116 11.7% 3,1 49 6.7% 3,337 7.9% 3,913 9.6% 3,800 17.0% Vista city, CA 6,546 8.4% 4,521 9.6% 7,129 16.9% 2,980 7.3% 1,061 4.7% San Marcos city, CA 4,671 6.0% 1,819 3.9% 2,884 6.8% 5,751 14.1% 1,037 4.6% Escondido city, CA 3,780 4.8% 2,057 4.4% 3,110 7.4% 4,784 11.8% 1,040 4.6% Encinitas city, CA 2,996 3.8% 840 1.8% 747 1.8% 812 2.0% 3,551 15.9% Solano Beach city, CA 313 0.4% 111 0.2% 100 0.2% 92 0.2% 241 1.1% Lake Son Morcos COP, CA 268 0.3% 66 0.1% 124 0.3% 232 0.6% 70 0.3% Subtotal 50,476 64.6% 28,943 ~ 25,204 ~ 23,734 ~ 15,480 ~ North of Carlsbad
Los Angeles city, CA 1,511 1.9% 854 1.8% 722 1.7% 837 2. 1% 362 1.6% Long Beach city, CA 311 0.4% 179 0.4% 158 0.4% 172 0.4% 65 0.3% Son Jose city, CA 267 0.3% 43 0.1% 49 0.1% 293 0.7% 21 0.1% Son Francisco city, CA 169 0.2% 30 0.1% 39 0.1% 32 0.1% 27 0.1% Orange County 0.0%
Anaheim city, CA 307 0.4% 179 0.4% 156 0.4% 110 0.3% 57 0.3% Santa Ano city, CA 285 0.4% 187 0.4% 166 0.4% 126 0.3% 50 0.2% Irvine city, CA -24 1 0.3% 137 0 .3% 84 0.2% 99 0.2% 40 0.2% Mission Viejo city, CA 239 0.3% 128 0.3% 85 0.2% 95 0.2% 34 0.2% Son Clemente city, CA 222 0.3% 127 0.3% 84 0.2% 69 0.2% 5 1 0.2% Laguna Niguel city, CA 207 0.3% 122 0.3% 72 0.2% 52 0.1% 40 0.2% Gorden Grove city, CA 199 0.3% 103 0.2% 70 0.2% 70 0.2% 26 0.1% Huntington Beoch city, CA 169 0.2% 96 0.2% 75 0.2% 69 0.2% 43 0 .2% Newport Beach city, CA 168 0.2% 6 1 0.1% 48 0.1% 37 0.1% 25 0.1% lake Forest city, CA 149 0.2% 75 0.2% 48 0.1% 40 0. 1% 37 0.2% Tustin city, CA 149 0.2% 55 0.1% 47 0.1% 44 0.1% 27 0.1% Rancho Santo Margarito city, CA 149 0.2% 75 0.2% 48 0.1% 46 0.1% 18 0.1% Subtotal 4,742 ~ ~ ~ -----i;m- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
South Son Diego
Chula Vista city, CA 938 1.2% 554 1.2% 541 1.3% 523 1.3% 374 1.7% El Cajon city, CA 342 0.4% 283 0.6% 210 0.5% 253 0.6% 175 0.8% Notional City city, CA 239 0.3% 137 0.3% 133 0.3% 133 0.3% 89 0.4% lo Mesa city, CA 202 0.3% 170 0.4% 113 0.3% 134 0.3% 118 0.5% Sublotol 1,72 1 ~ ---u« ~ -wr ~~ ------wr ~ ~
Inland East Counties
Follbrook CDP, CA 663 0.8% 888 1.9% 900 2.1% 519 1.3% 118 0.5% T emeculo city, CA 583 0.7% 561 1.2% 462 1.1% 483 1.2% 133 0.6% Poway city, CA 581 0.7% 162 0. 3% 263 0.6% 440 1.1% 241 1.1% Murrieta city, CA 560 0.7% 489 1.0% 440 1.0% 435 1.1% 116 0.5% Menifee city, CA 438 0.6% 340 0.7% 300 0.7% 352 0.9% 97 0. 4% Riverside city, CA 320 0.4% 241 0.5% 230 0.5% 289 0.7% 79 0.4% Santee city, CA 237 0.3% 155 0.3% 11 1 0.3% 115 0.3% 94 0.4% Corona city, CA 224 0.3% 122 0.3% 103 0.2% 118 0.3% 35 0.2% Moreno Volley city, CA 209 0.3% 221 0.5% 185 0.4% 177 0.4% 52 0.2% Va lley Center COP, CA 186 0.2% 103 0.2% 175 0.4% 244 0.6% 46 0 .2% Romano CDP, CA 153 0.2% 123 0.3% 126 0.3% 197 0.5% 69 0.3% lo Presa CDP, CA 143 0.2% 91 0.2% 84 0.2% 101 0. 2% 46 0.2% Son Bernardino city, CA 142 0.2% 119 0.3% 116 0.3% 108 0.3% 33 0. 1% French Volley CDP, CA 138 0.2% 109 0 .2% 113 0.3% 106 0.3% 30 0.1% Subtotal 4,577 ~ ~ ~ -----uos ------i@i ~ ~ ~ ~
Remoinins Cities 16,619 ~ ~ ~ .....!22..!Z. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Subtotal 78, 135 100% 46,976 100% 42,277 100% 40,704 100% 22,39 7 100% Source: •on The Mop' • US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Oct. 17, 2022
21604.00 Mocro2: JobC
Item #2
45
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT I-2E
COMMUTE PATTERNS
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Directional Breakdown of Where Workers Live Who
are Employed Within the City of Carlsbad as a
Percent of Total Jobs
■ Surrounding Cilies ■ North of Carlsbad ■ Soulh San Diego ■ Inland Eosl Counties ■ Remaining Cilies
Job Counts by Distance/Direction In 2019
All Wor1<c,s
N
Jobs by Olttanc. . Wort< Ctt1tu1 Block to
Home Cen1u1 Bkx:k
1t,tal Prtma,y JObl
2011
Count SNr•
n219 100°"'
35,650 '94%
12968 18.°'
10 319 14.3%
13282 18 A"'
Top Five Cities of Where Workers Live Who Are
Employed in the City of Carlsbad as a Percent of
Total Jobs
• Oceanside city, CA • San Diego city, CA • Vista city, CA ■ San Marcos city, CA ■ Escondido city, CA
Individua ls Emp loyed in the City of Carl sbad and Live in a Surrounding Maj o r Metro Area .,, 12000
0 -5 10000
·;;
'ii 8000 .£
~ 6000
>-0
4000 0..
E w 2000 0
~ 0 ..a
E Carlsbad :, Oceanside
■ Los Angeles city, CA
Vista San Marcos Encinitas
z ■ Son Diego city, CA ■ San Francisco city, CA ■ Irvine city, CA ■ Riverside city, CA Key Takeaways
1. The ci1y of Carlsbad has a high concentr ation of ind ividuals who are commu ting from the greater Son Diego area to jobs located within the city.
2. Outside of the major surrounding cities, a high portion of commu ters ore traveling from coastal northern cities and counties {Greater Los Angeles, Orange County) Sourcoct'_ n i7/~o'2 ~ 5 Census Bureau, Cente r for Economic Sludies 21604.00 Mocro2, JobC
Item #2 Page 69 of 173
46 THE CONCO RD GROUP
DRAFT
Geography:
Jobs/ Lobor Rotio
Jobs
Employed Labor
Jobs/labor
Net Job Inflow'+" / '·' Outflow
Living Outside Selection Area
Employed Labor
Employed labor living Oulaide Selection Aleo
Worl<•rs Eoming $1,250 pt,r month or less
Worii:en Earning Sl,25110 SJ,333 per month
Woric:eoa Earning Mor• thon $3,333 ~ month
Workers Aged 29 or younger
Workers Aged 30 to 5 -4
Workers Aged 55 or older
Living in Selectio n Area
Tota l Jobs
Em~oyed labor living in Selection Area
Woriters Earning $1,250 pt,r month or lest
Work•• Eoming $1 ,251 to $3,333 p• month
Worhrs Earning Mof• than $3,333 p.r month
Workers Aged 29 or younger
Workers Aged 30 to 5 4
Workers Aged 55 or older
Internal Jobs Filled by Outside Workers
Total Jobs
Employed in Selec1ion Area but living Outside
Wori<ers Eaming $1,250 per month or less
Woticeo Eorn,ng S1,251 lo S3,333 P• inonth
Work..-. Eoming Mol-"• !non $3,333 p..- month
Workers Aged 29 or younger
Workers Aged 30 to 54
Workers Aged 55 or older
80,000
70,000
60,000
EXHIBIT 1-2 E
COMM UTE PATTERNS - IN FLOW/ O UTFLOW
NO RTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
-
Ide Vi1to Son Marco s Encinitas
Num . Pere.
78,135
48,127
1.6 30,008
48,127
36,82 1
6,608
8,145
22,068
6,483
20,491
9,847
78,135
11,306
2,337
2,641
6,328
2,221
6,221
2,864
78,135
66,829
12,395
20,530
33,90 4
16,743
35,998
14,088
46,976
78,1 47
0.6 38" (1) -31,171
77% (2)
18%
22%
60% (3)
18%
56%
27%
14% (2)
21%
23%
56% (3)
20%
55%
25%
86%
19%
31%
51%
25%
54%
21%
78,147
64,146
12,334
21,445
30,367
15,050
33,943
15,153
46,976
14,00 1
3,562
5,298
5,141
3,279
7,033
3,689
46,976
32,975
7,101
12,371
13,503
8,165
17,452
7,358
42,277
53,154
0.8 -66% (1) • 10,877
82% (2)
19%
33%
47%
23%
53%
24%
30% (2)
25%
38%
37%
23%
50%
26%
70%
22%
38%
41%
25%
53%
22%
53,154
44,737
8,191
15,243
21,303
10,918
23,603
10,216
42,277
8,417
1,687
3,768
2,962
1,956
4,279
2,182
42,277
33,860
5,167
12,589
16,104
7,280
18,494
8,086
40,704
42,565
1.0 -26% (1) -1,861
84% (2)
18%
34%
48%
24%
53%
23%
20% (2)
20%
45%
35%
23%
51%
26%
80%
15%
37%
48%
22%
55%
24%
42 ,565
36,498
6,296
10,864
19,338
7,879
20,359
8,260
40,704
6,067
1,524
2,192
2,351
1,451
3,165
1,451
40,7 04
34,637
6,901
12,703
15,033
8,391
18,422
7,824
20 19 City Jobs Inflow Outflow
22,397
22,590
1.0 -5% (1) -193
86% (2)
17%
30%
53%
22%
56%
23%
15% 12)
25%
36%
39%
24%
52%
24%
85%
20%
37%
43%
24%
53%
23%
22,590
19,506
3,266
4,061
12,179
3,313
10,99 1
5,202
22,397
3,084
903
921
1,260
654
1,573
857
22,397
19,313
4,552
6,512
8,249
5,061
10,072
4,180
North Cou nty
Num. ~
455,201
517, 407
0.9 -1%(1) -62,206 -14% (1)
86% 12)
17%
21%
62%
17%
56%
27%
14% 12)
29%
30%
4 1%
21%
51%
28%
86%
24%
34%
43%
26%
52%
22%
517, 407
256,375
42,756
62,567
151,052
50, 116
143,781
62,478
455,20 1
259,531
51,587
84,280
123,664
56,686
137,855
64,990
455,201
194,423
34,110
61,396
98,917
46,555
107,062
40,806
80%
60%
50% 12)
17%
24%
59%
20%
56%
24%
57% 12)
20%
32%
48%
22%
53%
25%
43%
18%
32%
51%
24%
55%
21%
..8 50,000
..9 ...__ 40,000 +-- -;-- -+- +-- -+- +-...:+-l------ +-~-----t---=::~~----- -.:,-- - - 130,000
40% i
20% '§
0 0% ~
-20% ,2
20,000
10,000
0 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas
Jobs ■ Employed Labor • Net Job Inflow/Outflow
Wage distributi on of Employed Labor Living in Selection Area 56% 39" 41%
- - -- - - -Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas • Workers earni ng $3,333 or more as a Percent of employed labo r living in selection area • Workers earning between $ 1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area ■ Worke rs earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area C
-40% i
-60%
-80%
48"
-
North County
Oct. 17, 2022 Ite m #2 Page 70 of 173
Tl-lE CONCORD GROUP 21604.00 Macro2, lnAowOutflow
DRAFT EXHIBIT l-2E
COMMUTE PATTERNS - INFLOW/ OUTFLOW
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Wage distribution o f Employed Labor Living Outside of the Selection Area 100%
80% 51% 48%
60%
40%
-
20%
-
0%
- - -Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas
• Workers earning $3,333 or more as a Percenf of employed labor living in selection area • Workers earning between $1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area • Workers earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area Carlsbad
,nnow/O utftow Job Counts In 2019
- H .129 · Emp6oyed In Setec tk>ft Al"H, Uve Ouhlde
l fi.121 · Uve In S.lecUon ArN. Employed Oulsldt:
- ll.30G-Employed and Uveln Se:~nAreo
Son Morcos
lnftow/Outflow Job Counts In 2019
- 34,637 • Ernl)loyed In k4ectlon Area. LJve Oubid e
36.4H • Uve In S.l«Uon N ff, Employf!d OUl"ICM
- 6,067 • Employed and u .... In SelKUOn ~
Key Takeaways:
Encinitas
Inflow/Outflow Job Counts In 20U
- 11,313 - Emp~d In Selection Area. Live Outside
19,$08 • LN-. ffl s..i.cuon Alea. Employff 0 1,!(Slde
- J,OU - Cmpk,ycd •nd u ~ In Selection A(H
Vista
lnftow/Oot.11ow Job Counts In 2019
- 33,360 . Empki~d In Sd«t:IO,, Nee , Live OUtsld'°
u . 737 - Uve lnSe!ect:lon Arn. E:mplo-,.d OUtsltM
- 1.417 . (mployed .net Live In Selectk,n AIH
Oceansid e
lnflow/Ovtffow Job Counts In 20U
- 32,975 - Employed In -5.tection Area, Live Outsl~
S-1,148 · Lllle In S.letOon ArH, EmPk)yed Ovttlde
- t•.001 - Employed Mtd Uve In Selection Are-a
51%
-
North County
1. The city of Carlsbad experiences the highest level of inflow among ifs four surrounding cities with o 30k influx of employed labor in 2019, accounting for 38% of all jobs within the city. The city with the next hig hest inflow/ outflow metric, Encinitas, hos o slighf negative outflow and hos o considerably smaller jobs footprint of the five cities surveyed.
2. The city of Carlsbad has o higher concen tration of individuals who earn $3,333 month ly over the rest of the five cities surveyed and for North County for bofh individuals living with in Carlsbad and for those who travel to Carlsbad for work.
3. There is o higher influx of workers who reside with in fhe city Oceanside, but travel lo Carlsbad for work.
Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Oct. 17, 2022
2 1604.00 Macro2: lnflowOutflow
Item #2 Page 71 of 173
THE CONCO RD GROUP
DRAFT
0 n
"" ~
Total ln-M i9rati on -.J
Sois,i: Num .
0 To~ States
California 51,601
Virginia 5,906
Texas 5,607
Arizona 5,393
Washington 4,644
Florido 4,167
Illinois 3,826
New York 3,189
Colorado 3,039
Hawaii 2,692
Rem. States 40,354
Total 130,418
Top 25 Co unties
Los Ange les County, California 10,270
Riverside County, California 8,087
Orange County, California 7,328
San Bernardino County, California 4,823
Santo Claro County, California 2,782
Maricop a County, Arizona 2,331
Honolulu County, Hawaii 2,003
Alameda County, California 1,86 1
Beaufort County, South Caro lina 1,769
Clark County , Nevada 1,757
Cook County , Illinois 1,657
King County, Washington 1,644
S<lll. Francisco County, California 1,329
l~ eriol County, California 1,204
Onslow County, North Caro lina 1,192
C3btro Costa County, California 1,174
s&-amento County, California 1,108
Ventura County, California 1,108
Vij inio Beach city, Virginia 1,090
Pi a County, Arizona 1,063
~ County, California 949
El,.epso County, Colorado 944
Stb.lislous County, California 853
T~ont County, Texas 848
SC)l'lla Barbaro County, California 837
Rii!I. Counties 70,407
Total 130,4 18
Source: US Census, Census Flows Mapper (2015 to 2019)
17571.03 Migration: Summ
Share
39.6%
4.5%
4.3%
4.1%
3.6%
3.2%
2.9%
2.4%
2.3%
2.1%
30.9%
7.9%
6.2%
5.6%
3.7%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
54.0%
EXHIBIT l-2F
MIGRATION PATTERNS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
2015TO2019
Top 25 Counties - Share of In Migration
Los Angeles County, California
Riverside County, California
Orange County, California
Son Bernardino County, California
Santo Claro County, California
Maricopa County, Arizona
Honolulu County, Hawaii
Alameda County, Cal ifornia
Beaufort County, South Carol ina
Clark County, Nevada
Cook County, Illinois
King County, Washington
Son Francisco County, California
Imperia l County, California
Onslow County, North Carol ina
Contra Costa County, California
Sacramento County, California
Ventura County, California
Virginia Beach city, Virginia
Pima County, Arizona
Kern County, California
El Paso County, Colorado
Stanislaus County, California
Tarrant County, Texas
Santo Barbaro County, California
0%
49 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT l-2F
0 DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION : REDFIN MIGRATION
SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK
(')
.....
I-'
,-...i
~ Pe rcen tage of San Diego, CA
N
N Redfin users sea rching in ...
San Drego, c:,. 7 3 7t-a
- E sew rsere 26 3~o
Dest ination as% o f Orig in
Leavers
All
Los Angeles , CA 35.3%
Bay Area I .! 1.%
Seattle , WA 13 ~o
Phoen ix, AZ 13 ~o
Dal las, TX 13 :%
las Vegas, NV 13 o:e
~ Port land, OR I : S~o
~ Nashv ille, TN I: 7:'o
Wash ington, DC I : 7':o
"O
Q)
O'Q
(!) Houston, TX I : ,=o
-..J
~ Sou rce: Redfm use ✓ sea rch data fo r Q4 202:
-I-'
-..J
w
Source: Redlin
21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migration
2021
\
'
-----=-----
© 2022 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap
Key Takeaways: Son Diego Residents using
Redfin to seek housing, hove most frequently
searched the most northernly proximate major
metro Los Angeles. Likely Due to Los Ange les
being one of southe rn California's most robust
and diverse employment a nd cultural hubs .
·~~
Or g n --> Des1:inat o,
THE CONCORD GRO UP
DRAFT EXHIBIT l-2F
DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION: REDFIN MIGRATION
0 SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK n 2021 fT
I-'
,-....1
N Quarterly Ra n k of Met ro Dest inations for San Diego, CA 0 N As percent of o r ig in loo king from crestinat or N 0 ::> Oest D ispla y
■ Aus:ir -X
■ D3l las, TX
. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 0 ..as Ve~as 'JV - 39 :;,;,. ■ _os .::.r ge cs, CA - =,,.,oe,ix ,. ~z
- • • • • • ""' -
~
----- • - • • • • • • • • 2 _ ?on: la-d, OR
4.:.::: Sa~ra "ne rrto .. ::A
■ Se- Jose. CA
3 • • • • • J -" ~
'~---•
)I '.,_ .-.. --.1 .... )I '•
• • •
3 ~ t
3 ■ 5e.:1n:re~ \l'/ :l
■ il\ias- •.n s;:o n DC
~v ~ _.''\ I
~
~ .: • • • • • • • • • ~ •
4 -,,.
3 3", "" "' -----'
C:
"o,
\{ 3. :.~c ·c: 5 • • • --- ... -tt ~
~ - ----
0 ...... .... .. ,. _ ___._ - .. 5
0 t:: 11.
"' 4 < 6 .__. • • -----
t"
~ ·~ ·~ •----· - . • • .- ... 8 ~ / 3 o=-:: Cl
'ts
--"" C:
7 ·l\ ~ r:: ----• -; \ 11\
"' - - )\ I\
------ ◄ -;
°' : !>"~
,...,.
rt> 8
• .,__.
'
~ V -----
3 - - • • • • s :..7~.:-=1:1:
N
9 \
., .. c
? • • • • • • • • · \
'
• • • •
9 : 6""~
"'tJ
QJ
OQ
rt> ::.o • • • -..- ,._.,._. ... • • ~----•~• - .. .. --e,c·- • 10 -..J : 3<>., +:> 0 - .:..1 1:. I-'
-..J 2017 Q3 2018Q3 2019 Q3 Z:>20Q3 20210 3 w
Source: Redfin
21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migrotion THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
0 n :---
1-'
,-...J
N
0 N
N
;:::;:
11)
3 :tt
N
"'O
QI
OQ
11)
-...J
V,
0 -+,
I-'
-...J
lJJ
EXHIBIT l-2F
DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION : USPS ADDRESS CHANGES (2019 VS 2020)
SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK
Change in Moves to San Diego MSA (USPS) - In Migration
Los Angeles MSA
I
1 an Francisco MSA
Bremerton MSA
San Jose MSA
~
OtherMSA
Sacramento MSA :=:::J
Las Vegas MSA t:J
Seattle MSA t::I
Riverside MSA □
PhoenixMSA 1:::1
Denver MSA ...J
Portland MSA
New York MSA Key Takeaways :
Outside of the
Washington MSA Bremerton area, the
Dallas MSA top 4 cities that San
Diego experienced the
Boston MSA highest change in
Chicago MSA
individua ls wa nting to
relocat e from are all
Hono lulu MSA Coasta l California.
I rginia Beach MSA
2021
Change in Moves out of the San Diego MSA (USPS) - Out Migration Riverside MSA
Phoenix MSA
Los Angeles MSA
Dallas MSA
San Antonio MSA
Sacramento MSA
Houston MSA
Las Vegas MSA
Portland MSA
San Francisco
New York MSA
San Jose MSA
Seatt le MSA
Key Takeawa ys: The
Riverside area will
pose a threat to
growth of the North
Coun ty region due to
Riverside counties
growing relocation
appeal for its lower
rents and the
increasing
normalization of work
from home scenarios.
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Increase in USPS Addres s Change 2019 vs 2020 Increase in USPS Address Change 2019 vs 2020 Source: CBRE (April 2021 ), USPS
2 1634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migration THE CONCO RD GROUP DRAFT EXH IBIT 1-3
DEMO GRAPH ICS - SUMMARY
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2021 TH ROUGH 202 6
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Tl IE co,, coRD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-3
DEMOGRAPHICS - SUMMARY
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2021 THROU G H 2026
0 i
~
11 11 11 1- 1 11 iflili i 1- 1 Son o;ogoCounty
n y,.,_ Solano Beach San- o.-r. e-.d;do Doi-:--- Geography I-' Scale
,-..J Populot;on('21) 112,930 120,731 12,637 102,-484 -48,140 188,686 180,999 51,396 12,752 1,215,352 3,287,244 Houoehold, ('21 J 44,107 37,935 5,549 3-4,046 16,368 65,981 57,587 20,619 5,805 419,160 1,152,906 N " of North County I 11111 2211 t ~ 100% 0 G,ty, (#, '21,'26) 216 269 11 310 24 339 264 69 7 2,465 6,567 N ,C. of North County 9" 11% °"
13" 1% 14% 11% 3"
°"
100% 266% N Ov« S 1 OOK HH C.owth m~ 53)]
'
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6,262 16,204 Undo< S l OOK HH G,owth (407) (262) (50) (254) (137) (675) (465) (201) (65) (3,797) (9,638) G,ty, "'· '2 l-'26) 0.5% 0.7" 0.2% 0.9" 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3" 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% Employmont('2l ) C g§H) 3s,mi l ... , : ,z,mi i UM 475,097 1,579,455 ,C. of Not1h County 17" 10% 2" 7" 6% '°"
14% 6% 2" 100% Hovs•hold Size ri, 1)
Av«oge HH Size 2.54 3.12 2.28 2.99 2.91 2.76 3.10 2.46 2.20 2.84 2.76 1-P«son 24% 20% 30% 20% 16% 23" 20% 26% 28" 21% 24% 2-Person 36% 30% 39" 3 0% 32% 32% 29" 35% 43" 32% 31% 3+ Person 41% 50% 31% 50% 53" 45% 50% 38" 28" 47% 45% Age Breakdown {'21) M.d'ionAge 42.1 34.5 45.6 35.7 43.6 3-4.6 36.0 44.2 52.4 37.8 36 .2 Undo< 20 24% 27" 19" 28" 23" 25% 27" 21% 16% 26% 24% 20-24 5% 7" 5% 6% 5% 9% 6% 5% 3% 7" 8% 25-3 4 8 {:~ 8{:~ ~{ :~~{
15% ~{11 % ~ {:~ ~{ 15%
~{ :~ 8{,;: ~{ "" ~ { 16% 35.44 14% 12% 13" 13% 13" 45-54 13" 11% 13" 12" \4% 10% 11% 13" 12" 12% 12% 55-64 ""
llll 15% 10% 16% 11% 12% 15% 17" 13% 12% 65-74 11% 8% 13" 8" 11% 8% 9" 12" 17" 9" 9" 75+ 8" 6% 10% 7" 7" 7% 6% 9" 13" 7% 6% Income B,..okdown ('21) Median Income I n~.2031 i llZtRB I Sl '•~99--0 I i1?1;m 599,854 $84,989 v1, North County 20% (23%) 22% (12%) 15% (25%) (23") 21% 58" (15%) Av.,.oge Income C $157,77~ i 1m;ocu L i155,8llJ !lil,WI S130,684 Sl 13,225 Undo< $ SOK 18% 30% 18" 29" 19" 34% 33" 20% 12% 25% 30% S50-S75K 6% 11% 7" 9" 7" 13% 12% 6% .,. 9% 10% $75-SlOOK { 11% { 18% { 12%
~{
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{ 11% { 16% { 16% { 11%
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~ 1:
11% 12% S 150-S200K ~ 21% 19" 21% ~ 2: 19" 16% ~ 20% ~ 20% Oved200K 15% 10% 10% 11% 15% 10% 14% 12% 12% 11% Net Worlh Breakdown ("21)
Median Net Worth I ·~ lffl, 15:J( c::::::w,-m c:::: Jwf§) 5252,331 $144,778 vs. North County 84% (51%) 82" (22") 105% (49l<.) (42%) 60% 240% 100% 57" Average Net Worth [ $2,_IO~nl) C ·n:.mJ!!j P-161:9021 I s,.w.m S 1,547,77 5 Sl, 109,413 Under SSOK 17" 34% 18" 28" 16% 35% 34% 20% 13" 15% 33" S50-S250K 23" 29" 23" 26% 21% 27" 26% 22% 16% 25% 27" S250-S500K 11% 13" 10% 13" 12% 13% 12% 10% 9" 12% llll S500-$ 1M 16% 11% 12" 14% 17" 11% 12% 14% 15% 14% 11% ;::; SlM-51.SM 9" 4% 8" 6% 9" 5% 5% 8" 10% 7" 5% (1) Sl.5M-S2 M 6% 2% 7" 3" 6% 2% 3% 6% 8" '"
3" 3 Qv.,- S2M 19" 6% 21% 10% 19" 7% 9" 19" 29" 13" 9% :ti: Sovrc.: ESRI; US Ceruvs (.Am.ricon Foctfind9f) N .,,
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THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT EXHIBIT 1-3
0 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE SUMMARY n
r CARLSBAD
f--'
,-..J 2011 THROUGH 2026
N
0 N
N
I Corlsiiia I l0Year I Carlsbad I 5 Year fl Summa~
Geography 2011 2021 fl 2021 2026 fl '11-'21 '1 l -'26
General Information
Population 102,342 112,930 + 10.3% 112,930 115,970 +2.7% + 10.3 % + 13.3 % Net new population 10,588 3,040 10,588 13,628
Households 39,964 44,107 + 10.4 % 44,107 45,188 +2.5% + 10.4% + 13.1% Net new households 4,143 1,081 4,143 5,224
Household Size 2.56 2.56 -0.0% 2.56 2.57 +0.2% -0.0% +0.2% Age Breakdown - Population
Median Age (Pop) 40.0 42.1 +2 .1 42.1 42.5 +0.4 +5.3% +6.3% Under 20 26% 24% -1 .8% 24% 23% -1.1% -6.9 % -11.3 %
20-24 5% 5% -0.1 % 5% 5% -0.4% -2.8% -10 .9% -25-34 12% 12% +0.0% 12% 13% +0.9% +0. 2% +8.2% 35-44 16% 13% -2 .3% 13% 14% +0.1% -14 .8% -14 .1%
45-54 16% 13% -3.0% 13% 13% -0.7% -18.4% -22 .7% --55-64 12% 14% +2.1% 14% 13% -1.1% + 17.4% +8.3% 65-74 7% 11% +3.9% 11% 11% + 0.7% +59. 1% +69. 5%
75+ 7% 8% +1.2% 8% 10% +l.6% + 17.9 % +41.2%
m,come/Wealth Breakdown - Households
3 $120 ,203 +55.2% :tt Median Income $85,743 $120,203 +40.2% $133,079 + 10.7 % +40.2% N
$107,212 $157,775 + 47.2 % $157,775 $176,507 + 11.9% +47.2% +64.6% Average Income Under $SOK 31% 18% -13.1 % 18% 14% -4.1% -42 .6% -56 .1% ~ $50-$75K 14% 11 % -3.2 % 11% 9% -1.1 % -23 .1% -3 1.3% ~ $75-$ lOOK 13% 11 % -2.0 % 11% 11 % -0.2 % -14.8 % -16.1 % 2;:l $100-$1 SOK 19% 21% +1.4% 21% 21 % +0.6% +7.0% + 10.4% Q, Over $ l 50K 23% 40% + 16.9 % 40% 45% +4.8% +73 .9% +94 .9% f--'
-..J
St.urces: ESRI, US Census
21690.00 DemoDemand: DemosChange THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
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A. Renter Incomes
Income Tran ches
Less than $50,000
$50,000 to $75,000
$75,000 to $100,000
$100,000 to $150,000
$150,000+
Total Renters:
8. % of Income S.e_ent on Rent
$75 ,000 + Incomes
Less than 20%
20%to 29%
30%+
8,000
7,000
6,000
~ 5,000
c
~ 4,000
0 ;§ 3,000
2,000
1,000
0 ---
-
- -
-
-
-
-
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Source: American Factfinder
21690.00 DemoDemand:ChangingRenters
2014
Renters --
7,122
2,599
2,021
2,792
1,365
15,899
2014
Renters
2,229
2,7 49
1,057
6,035
~
EXHIBIT 1-3
CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIP
CARLSBAD
2014TO2019
2019 5 Year Change
Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change
45% 4,634 30% -2,488 -35%
16% 2,686 17% 87 3%
13% 1,970 13% -51 -3%
18% 3,021 20% 229 8%
9% 3,075 20% 1,710 125%
100% 15,386 100% -51 3 -3%
2019 5 Year Cha"nge
Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Chang e
37% 3,324 42% 1,095 49%
46% 3,502 44% 753 27%
18% 1,107 14% 50 5%
100% 7,933 100% 1,898 31 %
~
~
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- ....
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$150,000+
--
□ 2014
02019
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
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A. Renter Incomes
Income Tranches
Less than $50,000
$50,000 to $75,000
$75,000 to $100,000
$ 100,000 to $150,000
$150,000+
Total Renters :
B. % of Income S.e_ent on Rent
$75 ,000+ Incomes
Less than 20%
20%to 29%
30%+
16,000
14,000
I 12,000 ----,
I E 10,000 -l
2 C
Q)
8,000 -l a.::
I
E
i2 6,00 0 -l
I 4,000 -------i
I
2,000 -------i
0 I-
I-
L-
I-
I-
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Source: American Factfinder
21690.00 DemoDemand:Changing Renters OS
2014
Renters - - -
14,209
5,6 19
2,879
2,35 4
767
25,828
2014
EXHIBIT 1-3
CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIP
OCEANSIDE
2014TO2019
2019 5 Year Change
Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change
55% 11 ,750 45% -2,459 -17%
22% 5, 130 20% -489 -9%
11% 3,847 15% 968 34%
9% 3,662 14% 1,308 56%
3% 1,716 7% 949 124%
100% 26,105 100% 277 1%
2019 5 Year Change
Renters Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change
2,182 37% 3,231 35% 1,049 48%
2,739 47% 4,236 46% 1,497 55%
964 16% 1,663 18% 699 73%
5,885 100% 9,130 100 % 3,245 55%
,-----
,-----
I- - - -
~
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$150,000 +
□ 2014
0 2019
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
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HB!f_l Statistics
cijsbod
"Mventory (Room s)
Occupancy
ADR
Son Dieg o
Inventory (Rooms)
Occupancy
ADR
San Diego County
Inventory (Rooms)
Occupancy
ADR
Lodging Demographics 111
Leisure
Commerical /Corporate
Group
Visitor Demographics .l2l
Median Age
Median Income
Groups with Children
Average Length of Stoy
Avg Exp per Person/Day
Visitor Origin (1)
O range County
Riverside-San Bernardino
SF-Oakland-Son Jose
Los Angeles -Long Beach
Pl;qr,nix-Meso
L~ Vegos
P~ose of Trip (1)
Pl80sure/ vacotion
Friends/ Family
Business
M~ ings
OQ
(I)
00 I-'
0 -I-'
;t;%
3%.
(1) Corl.bod Touri,m Repo,1 . 2018
21690 .00 City De mo: Tourism
2006
39,057
68%
$165
405,374
75%
$ 139
646,866
73%
$131
50-55 %
30-35 %
10-20 %
31 Years
$80,200
53%
3.6 nights
$328
12.7%
10.0%
8.7%
8.5%
6.7 %
3.0%
i60%
60%
35%
3%
2%
2007
39,646
70%
$177
407,861
74%
$1 46
650,909
73%
$139
2008
44,975
65%
$167
420,377
72%
$1 49
670,338
70%
$142
S200
$175
Sl 50
Sl15
Sl OO
$75
$50
$25
so
-
EXHIBIT 1-4A
CllY DEMO · TOURISM
CARLSBAD
2022
2009 2010 2011 20 12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45,954 45,927 45,856 44,933 48,290 49,042 52, 122 53,0 74 53,083 60% 62% 63% 65% 66% 71% 72% 73% 75%
$147 $137 $139 $ 142 $152 $158 $164 $166 $172
437,988 442 ,660 441,360 440, 127 441 ,340 442,429 443,575 453,298 460 ,407 65% 69% 71% 74% 74% 77% 78% 79% 78%
$131 $128 $132 $ 138 $140 $147 $157 $161 $166
691,417 698,555 697,613 697 ,193 703,342 711,764 717,725 729,389 739,279 63% 66% 69% 71% 72% 75% 76% 77% 77%
$124 $121 $125 $130 $133 $139 $148 $ 152 $157
ADR and ADR Change
.. n n I I nn . ~ ~ ~fb. rt_ ~ --
' ~ !Ill~ ' { .c.::., ~ ~ l '
I F
;
. I , ·'
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 2015
- CorfsbodAC>i: - Son Dt.go A.DR --. Son 0.-vo County AOR --Corlsbod AOR Gr Carlsbad and San Diego Visition
4.000.000
3,800,000
3,600,000
J.•00.000
3,200,000
3,000.000
2.800,000
I
2,600,000
2,400,000
2,200,000
2,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Averages
2018 2019 2020 2021 5 Yr 10 Yr
56,003 57,471 58,709 60,708 57, 195 53,344
74% 72% 4 7% 58% 65% 67%
$1 78 $17 9 $128 $182 $168 $ 162
462,488 469,070 470,386 469,653 466,401 455,277
80% 78% 45% 59% 68% 72%
$172 $172 $128 $ 162 $160 $ 154
747, 192 762,291 770,565 775,056 758,877 735,380
78% 77% 48% 61% 68% 71%
$163 $163 $121 $155 $152 $ 146
I
rr
n
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50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
O'lb
. 10'1(,
-20'1(,
.JO'l(,
-40o/, ~ I
-SO%
2016 2017 20 18 2019 2020 2021
--- SOAORGr - - S0County.4DRGR
40%
JO'I(,
20%
10%
O'lb
I
-10%
I
-20o/,
-30%
-•O'lb
2011 2013 2015
- Totol VMor, lo COl'hb-cd --Gu,wt+. VISlto" fCorld>odt - - Gn;-Mil, Vittfon {SOI
THE CONCO RD GROUP
57 DRAFT
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>0000
Industry size by employment
• Indu stry Job,-;;
;:::;
(I)
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N
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I •"·"'"<"" .,i,nd ln1,l1r~n(,t,
T1.tn:.oorut1 o n ,o1•1<1 \V.,n.•hu~h Ji:
Art!.. Cnten.;Jnment. .iln:I RK~t1on
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(d11r.11nt\n:11 S#n,lf"f''!;
lnforn-..tkr,
lJN1ti,-,
A1r1cul:ure. Forestry, ri,t•nw ~n-d H1.nttr I'
Source: City of Carlsbad Economic Update
21690.00 City Demo: Industries
I
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I
EXHIBIT 1-48
CITY DEMO - INDUSTRY CO MPOSITIO N
CARLSBAD
2022
'4000ft
58 I. GRP
• The city of Carlsbad generates the bulk of its g ross regional product (GRP) from Monufoctoring
• Professional, scient ific and technical services
represent a large portion of the city's GRP
- These sectors include:
a. Tech
b. Life Sciences
c. Other innovation industries
- Anticipated growth within these sectors due to
general resilience to recessions
• Accommodation and Food services ore a major
component of the economy due to the large
presence of tourism and hospitality
- Legolond creates a large influx of tourism a nd
visitors
II. Industry Share vs. US Share
Monufoctoring is Carlsbad 's largest industry
- Producing over 14,000 jobs
- The number of jobs significantly exceeds the notional overage • Professional, Scientific and Technica l Services represents the second largest gap as compared to the notional overage
- This sector is only the 2nd largest producer of jobs for the Carlsbad economy
Accomodotion and Food services is the 3rd largest
- Considering the presence of Legolond , data sugges ts there is a gap to be filled in this sector
Government emp loyement represents the largest gap
between Carlsbad's econom y and the not ional overage
• Despite the tour ism associated with Carlsbad , retail trade logs behind notional overage
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Rank
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 16
17 18
19 20
EXHIBIT l-4C
LARGEST EMPLOYERS
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Company Industry
Park Hyatt Aviara Touris m
Viasat, Inc. Communications
Thermo Fisher Scientific Biotechno logy
Gemologica l Institute of America
City of Carlsbad Government
GenMark Dx Biotechno logy
Nordson Corporation Manufacturing
Callaway Golf Retail
lonis Pharmaceuticals Biotechno logy
LEGOLAN D California Tourism
OptumRx Biotechnology
Genoptix Biotechnology
Omni La Costa Resort & Spa Tourism
Great Cal l/ Jitterbug Communications
Costco Retail
Continuing Life Commun ities Medical
Zimmer Denta l Biotechnology
SGN Nutr ition Retail
T aylorMade - Adidas Retail
Carlsbad Unified School District Government
Total
Jobs
Number HQ
3,980
2,563 HQ
2,400
800 HQ
680 HQ
662
600
590
586
400
400 HQ
400 HQ
365 HQ
200
150
100
90 HQ
40 HQ
15,006
Source: Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce, San Diego Business Journa l, Union Tribune, various sites.
Oct. 17, 2022 Item #2 Page 83 of 173
59 DRAFT
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LEGEND
Colo r = Yea r Built
Purple = Pre-1970
= 1970-1980
= 1980 - 1990
Yellow = 1990 - 2000
= 2000- 2010
0 = After 2010
EXHIBIT l-4D
DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - MULTIFAMILY DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP
CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES
.. .
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THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
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EXHIBIT 1-4D
DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - OFFICE DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP
CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES
0 • •
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AS OF FEBRUARY 2022
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= 2000 - 2010
~
• Under 10,000
• 10,000 - 22,000
• 22,000-40,000
• 40,000 - 70,000
• 70,000-115,000
- 115,000-180,000
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21690.00 Development Mops: DevelopmentHeatMap
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THE CONCORD GROUP
61 DRAFT
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• Under 6,000
• 6,000- 15,000
• 15,000 - 30,000
• 30,000 - 50,000
• 50,000 - 80,000
- 80,000- 130,000
- 130,000 - 240,000
• Over 240000
Souce: ESRI, Cos1or
un
21690.00 Development Maps: Development HeatMap
EXHIBIT 1-4D
DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - RETAIL DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP
CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES
AS OF FEBRUARY 2022
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THE CONCO RD GROUP
62 I
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DRAFT
EXHIBIT V-2
O FFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - OVERALL
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2 0 0 B THROUGH 2 021
0 Annual ' Ouorterlr: i Ave~e s n I
;" Market Factor jSFj 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ! 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql I 5 -Yr 10-Yr .....
,:-.J Inventory SF (RSA, 000, 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 386 386 391 391 391 404 404 : 404 404 404 404 : 396 395 N Net Deliveries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13 0 5 0 0 13 0 I 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 Net Absorpt;on 6 -5 6 4 -2 -4 -9 -17 9 12 6 2 -9 15 I -- 3 3 3 I 5 0 N T otol Vacancy Rate 3.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% 6.2% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 6.9% 3.1% : 4.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.4% : 3.3% 4.2% N Vocont SF 15 20 14 11 12 16 25 29 20 13 7 5 28 13 I 18 15 13 10 I 13 17 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.33 S20.67 S20.56 $20.68 S22.88 $21.72 $25.49 $26.93 S30.35 $31.66 $31.78 S31.63 $30.53 S32.45 : $33.17 $33.94 $32.45 $33.69 : $31.61 $28.54 %Chang e -8.7% -18.4% -0.5% 0.6% 10.6% -5.1% 17.4% 5.6% 12.7% 4.3% 0.4% -0.5% -3.5% 6.3% ' 2.3% -4.4% 3.8% , 1.3% 4.6% aw, c.lllioil, -
Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs 160 160 160 160 - 160- 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 i 160 160 160 160 i 160 160 Net Deliveries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o l 0 0 0 I 0 0 Net Absorption -8 .10 : I 4 6 1 11 -5 2 11 1 -1 2 0 3 -6 0 4 I -1 1 T otol Vacancy Rote 21.2 % 18.6% 15.1% 14.6% 7.8% 10.8% 9.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% 6.3% I 2.2% 6.1% 6.3% 3.5% I 2.4% 4.6% Vocont SF 34 30 24 23 12 17 16 5 4 4 2 3 0 10 : 4 10 10 6 : 4 7 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF} $35.43 $34.74 $34.05 $28.35 $18.49 $18.77 $25.67 $26.89 $26.10 S25.41 $35.33 $45.93 $34.58 $32.48 I $41.81 $32.33 $32.48 $32.48 I $34.75 $28 .97 % Change 46.5% -1.9% -2.0% -16.7% -34.8% 1.5% 36.B% 4.8% -2.9% -2.6% 39.0% 30.0% -24.7% -6.1% ! -22.7 % 0.5% 0.0% I 4.5% 1.4% Sovth S.ach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 j 140 140 140 140 j 140 140 Net Oelr.teries 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 0 0 Net Absorption -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 : 0 -3 1 I 2 2 T otol Vacancy Rate 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% I 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% l 9.9% 10. 1% Vacant SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 I 1 1 4 3 I 14 14 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $41.93 $40.32 : S41.24 $41.24 $4 0.32 $33.00 : $41. 13 $32.07 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.8% I 0.0% -2. 2% -18.2% t 4.5% I
~ I I
Inventory Sf (RSA, OOOs 3,347 3,347 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,4 75 : 3,475 3,475 3,4 75 3,475 : 3,466 3,446 Net Deliveries 46 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 10 5 Net Absorption 66 3 -99 154 34 127 45 -72 -58 -65 -49 87 129 -7 I -31 3 73 I 19 17 Total Vacancy Rate 21.9% 21.8% 26.5% 22.0% 21.0% 17.3% 16.0% 18.1% 19.8% 21.7 % 24.2% 21.7 % 18.0% 18.2% : 17.4% 18.3% 18.2% 16.1% : 20.8% 19.6% Vacant SF 733 730 908 754 720 593 548 620 679 744 841 754 626 633 I 605 636 633 560 I 719 676 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.84 S28.64 $25.54 $25.67 $25.53 $26.21 $27 .39 $28.61 $29.68 $29.33 $30.08 $31.55 $31.91 $32.62 I $32.20 $32.60 $32.62 $32.89 I $31. 10 $29.29 %Change -2.5% -4.0% -10.8% 0.5% -0.5% 2.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.7% -1.2% 2.6% 4.9% 1.1% 2.2% l 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% ! 1.9% 2.4% 100 Net Deliveries
80 -c-
~ 60
1 40
;::::;: ~ (l) 0 20
3 ,
CT
V) 0
:t:1:
N -20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■Village "'C 200 Ne t AbsOf'ption
Ill
(TQ 150
(l) -c- 100
00 ~ 00
l
50 0 0
-
., ..... l; -50 ,
--.J CT
w
V)
-100
-150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■ Village "No office property in Avioro submarkets
21091.00 Office Trends -Sum: Performance (Sub) P-1 ol 5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE . OVERALL
SELECT SUBMARKETS
200B THROUGH 2021
Annual QuorM!fr: AvemBa
Market Factor ~fl 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201S 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202 1 2021 Q2 2021 QJ 2021 Q4 '2022 Ql i ~~ lt~IB ,
Inventory SF IRBA. 000.) 30,3 12 31,265 31,516 31,654 31,710 31,904 3 1,949 32,307 32,590 32,685 32,980 33 ,315 33,89 1 33,929 33,884 33,944 33,929 33,92 9 33,360 32,726 NetOtilrveriet 28,706 953 252 138 S6 195 .. 358 284 95 295 335 575 38 60 -15 0 268 227 N.t Ab1orptiGn 23,933 81 1,015 591 365 552 327 6'1 -38 -210 557 <98 75 271 189 190 -102 238 30< Totol Voconcy Rote 16011 18.3" 15 7" 1'.~ 13.2% 12.0% 11.1" 101'4 11 011 119" 11.0% 10 4" 11,7% 11.0% 12 .0% 1l 6" 11.0% 11.3" 11"' 11 "' Vocon1 Sf 4,850 5,721 4,948 4, 495 4,186 3,829 3,546 3,263 3,585 3,890 3,628 3,465 3,965 3,732 <,066 3,938 3,732 3,834 3,736 3,709 G,on Rttnt Dir.ct ($/SF) $33.47 $29.52 $28. 1-4 $27 .71 $27 .7 1 $27,76 $28.91 $30.45 $33.10 $33.99 $34.97 $34.97 $3558 S37.4A $36.55 $3662 $37.4 4 $37 89 $35.39 $31 -49 " Chong• -6.5% -11.8% -4.7" - 1.5" 0.0% 0.2%
"·'"
5.3'1 8.7" 2.7" 2.9% 0.011 1.7" s"' 0.2!1 2.2!1 I 2% 2,5,. 3. 1% l•!m!-!!
7.681 I lrwentory SF IRSA. 000.) 6,-46.t 6,623 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,9 40 7,'172 7,207 7,436 7,668 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7.~5 7, 189 N.tO.tivwi .. 119 159 80 0 0 0 0 237 232 36 228 232 13 0 0 0 0 102 98 NM Absorptio,1 28 96 7 235 127 181 1'7 79 .2() 58 328 3'7 42 ,23 -15 15 77 150 127 Total Vacancy Rote 23 1" 23.5" 2.t.3" 208" 18.9" 16.2" U.0% 15.8% 18.8" 18 . .t" 16.5" 1-4.5" 14.1" 1.t.4" 1.t . .t" 1.t,6" U .4% 13.4" 15 6" 16 2% Vacant SF 1,493 1,556 1,629 1,394 1,267 1,086 938 1,096 1,348 1,326 1,227 1,112 1,083 1,106 l, 106 1,1'21 1,106 1,029 1,171 1,159 Gron RW!f Oir«:f 1$/SFI $30.20 $27.78 $25.39 $25.28 $24 .37 $25.13 $27.54 $28.52 $29 33 $29.50 S30.18 S31.17 S32.32 S32.65 $32 4 1 $32 62 S32 .65 $32.69 $3 1.16 $29.07 "Chong• -2 8" -8.0% -86" ..o.," -3.6" 3.1" 9.6% 3.6% 2.8" 0.6" 2. 3% 3.3" 3 .7" '·°"
0 .6% 0 .1"
0 '"
2.2!1 26"
lnv«ttory SF (RM. OOOs.l 1,522 1,5.t7 1,684 1,695 1,695 1,752 1,768 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,967 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,96 1 1,855 1,805 NetO.!Nen .. 255 26 137 11 0 57 16 14 0 0 0 0 185 -6 0 0 0 36 27 N<II Absorption 128 .u 162 21 '7 62 -8 53 ,, 3< 7 5 168 '7 27 -6 -20 52 <5 Totol Voconcy Rot• 18.0% 20.9" 17 7% 17.0% IA.2" 13.5% 14.7" 12.4% 10.5" 8.6% 8.2% 7.,. 8.011 5.3% 6.4" 5.011 5.3% 6"' 7 6" 10.3% Yocom Sf 27' 323 298 288 w 237 260 221 187 153 1A6 1<1 157 10, 125 98 10, 12< 1,0 185 Gron R-,t Oired f$/SFJ $3043 S26.97 $26.33 S23.2A $2A 42 $20.94 S21 60 $22.89 S23.A5 $23 .71 $24.42 $25.12 $26.02 $27.20 $17.09 S26.94 $27.20 $26.77 $25.29 $23.98 "Chong• 0.7" - 11 ' " -2'" -11.7" 5.19' -14.3% 3.2% 60% 2.4" 1.1" 3.0% 2.9" 3.6" 4.5" ..0.6" 1.0% - 1.6" 3.011 1.6" --
lnv«-1tory SF (RSA, 000.1 l,.t87 l,5A5 1,552 1,551 1,62 1 1,62 1 1,621 1,651 1,651 1,7 11 1,72 7 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,723 1,6 78 N.tO.iiv.-iN 199 57 7 -1 70 0 0 30 0 60 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 18 N.t Ab,orptio,1 <8 -18 ,o 19 69 .. 53 58 ,2 '7 5 .'5 . 9 9 -16 "
8 27
Total Voconcy Rote 15.3" 19.6" 17.4" 16 1% 15.5% 15.4% 12.-A% 10.8" 7.3% 8. 1% 6.2% S.9" 8.5% 9011 8.6" 8.1"' 9.011 8"' 7.5" 9.9" Vacan t Sf 228 303 270 250 251 250 201 178 121 139 107 102 1<7 155 1'8 1'0 155 1'2 130 165 Gro,s RIW'lf Oitld ($/SF) S302 A $27.82 $28.38 S27.21 S26.0.t $25.35 $26 .16 S26.-A6 S27.81 $26.21 $27.41 $27.96 S28.81 $26.49 $29.78 S30.19 S26,A9 S27 48 S27.38 $2687 "Change
""
-8.°" 2.0%
·'·"'
-4.39' -2.6" 3 .2% I.I" 5.1" .s.~ 4.6" 2.0!1 3.0% -8.1'5 '-'" -123" 3.7" ·'°"
-03"
-Inventory SF (RSA. 000.J 1,633 1,633 1,636 1,636 1,6A3 1,6-43 1,677 1,677 1,680 1,68.t 1,68.t 1,708 1,708 1,768 1,708 1,768 1,768 1,768 1,711 1,687 N.tOe,IN.;.. 27 0 3 0 7 0 3< 0
' '
0 2' - 1 60 60 0 0 17 13
N.i Ab,orption .. , 13 '3 28 12 18 12 22 27 -31 10 33 .,2 6< 48 "
.5 7 12
T otol Vacancy Rote 10.3% 9.5" 7.011 5 .3" 5.011 3.9" 5. 1% 3.8" 2.A" ' ·-"' 3.9" 3.3% 5.7" 5.3" 56" 6.1" 53% 5.6" 4.5!1t <.3'1 Vacant Sf 168 155 115 87 82 64 86 6< ,o 76 66 S6 97 94 96 108 94 99 78 72 GroN Re,nt Oirlld (S/SFI S32.9A $29.81 $3087 $31 70 $32.26 $32.-45 $32.43 $35.53 $36.99 $38.68 $38.13 SA0 . .t5 $A2.39 S42.63 S.t2. 74 $.t i 92 $42.63 S.t2.29 SA0.46 S37.19 " Chonv• -8.07' .9_5,. 3 .6" 2.7" '-~ 0.6" -0.1% 9.6% ,U9' 4.6,. -1.49' 6. 1'6, '·°"
0.6,. -1.9% 1.7" -<>-~ 2.9" 3 °"
-Inventory SF IR8A.. 000.) 1,683 1,7.t6 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 l,755 1,761 1,761 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,765 NeitO.!iverift 61 63 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 N.t Absorption .71 1 19 21 ·" -56 .. 109 -23 1 51 .73
·"
0 - 12 .. 0 - 12 0
Totol Vacancy Roi• 15.°" 18.0'Mi 17.~ 16.1" 16 9" 20.1" 17.6" 11.7% 13.0% 13.5" 10.6" 1-4.7" 17.0% 17.0% 16. 1" 16.8" 17.0% 17.0% 1.t.6% 15.2% Vocont SF 252 31' 30< 282 297 353 309 206 229 239 188 261 301 301 285 298 301 301 258 268 Gron RIW'lf 0.rld jS/Sf) $27.68 $25.90 $25.56 $23 .83 $23 .51 $22.2 2 $2 1.56 S21 . .t0 $21.72 $21 75 $20.32 S20.58 $26.26 $27.28 $26.97 S28.10 S27.28 $27.2 1 S23.24 $22.66 " Chong• 15.99(, -6 . .t9' .J.3" -6.~ -1.3" -5.5" -3.°" -0.7% 1.59' 0.lll -6.69' 1.3" 27.6" 3.9" '·""
-2.9% -0.3" 4.7" 1.49'
500 Net AblOrprion
,oo
'C'
,[ 300 ._ l
•
! 200 --8 .f
100
-100
-200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Vi.to Enan!lo, SonMoa~ ■ Oc.anside ■ Cortsbad
700 Ne1Delli,,..,.._
600
'C'
l
l
500
!
8 .f
,oo
300
200
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201-4 2015 2016 2017 20 18 2019 2020 2021 " Visto Encinitas ■ Son Marcos • Oc.anlide ■ Carllbod
'No office property in Av;oro ,ubmorklllt
Sovn:e:CoSIDr
Oct. 17, 2022 Ite m #2 Page 89 of 173
21091 .00 Offic• l r«-1d1 • Sum: P...-formonc• (City) Poge'2of5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBITV-2
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w
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
OVERALL
2008 THROUGH 2021
Market Factor
Annual
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202 0 2021 Qua rtert.i::. Annual Average
5-Yr 10-Yr 202 1 Q2~202 1 Q42022 Ql - - - - - -North County ' I Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.5 Y/Y % Change
$29.5 $28. l S27 .7 $27 .7 $27 .8 $28.9 $30.5 $33.1 $34.0 $35.0 $35.0 $35.6 $37.4 $36.6 $36.6 $37.4 $37.9 I -11.8% -4.7% -1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 4.1% 5.3% 8.7% 2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 1.7% 5.2 % 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% I Carlsbad I
I
Gross Rent Direct ($/Sf] $30.2 $27.8 $25.4 S25.3 $24.4 $25.1 $27.5 $28.5 $29.3 $29.5 $30.2 $31.2 $32.3 $32.7 I $32.4 $32 .6 $32.7 $32.7 I Y/Y%Change -8.0% -8.6% -0.4% -3.6% 3.1% 9.6% 3.6% 2.8% 0.6% 2.3% 3.3% 3.7% 1.0% ! 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% ! Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.4 $27.0 $26.3 $23.2 $24.4 $20.9 $21.6 $22.9 $23.5 $23.7 $24.4 $25. l $26 .0 $27.2 : $27. l $26.9 $27.2 $26.8 Y/Y%Change -11.4 % -2.4% -11.7 % 5 .1% -14.3 % 3.2% 6.0% 2.4% 1.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.6% 4.5% 1 -0.6% 1.0% -1.6% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.2 $27.8 $28.4 $27.2 $26.0 $25.4 S26.2 $26.5 $27.8 $26.2 $27.4 $28.0 $28.8 $26.5 : $29.8 $30.2 $26.5 $27.5 Y/Y % Change -8.0% 2.0% -4.1% -4.3% -2.6% 3.2% 1.1% 5.1% -5.8% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0% -8.1% r 1.4% -12.3% 3.7% ~
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32. 9
Y/Y % Change
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.7
Y/Y% Change
Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.3
Y/Y% Change
.Q!d,;~
$29.8 $30.9 $31.7 $32.3 $32.5 $32.4 $35.5 $37.0 $38.7 $38.1 $40.5 $42.4 $42.6 -9.5 % 3.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% -0.1% 9.6% 4.1 % 4.6% - 1.4% 6.1% 4.8% 0.6% $25.9 $25.6 $23.8 $23 .5 $22.2 $2 1.6 $21.4 $21.7 $21.8 $20.3 $20.6 $26.3 $ 27.3 -6.4% -1.3% -6.8% -1.3% -5.5% -3.0% -0.7% 1.5% 0.1% -6.6% 1.3% 27.6% 3.9% $20. 7 $20.6 $20.7 $22.9 $21.7 $25.5 $26.9 $30.4 $31.7 $31.8 $31.6 $30 .5 $3 2.5 -18.4% -0.5% 0.6% 10.6% -5.1% 17.4% 5.6% 12.7% 4.3% 0.4% -0.5% -3.5% 6.3% $42.7
$27.0
$33.2
$41.9 $42.6 $42 .3
-1.9% 1.7% -0.8%
$28.1 $27 .3 $27.2
4.2% -2.9% -0.3%
W~ ffl5 W.7
2~ ~a 3ft
GrossRentDirect(S/SF) $35. 4 $34.7 $34 .l $28.4 $18.5 $18.8 $25.7 S26. 9 $26.1 $25.4 $35.3 $45.9 $34.6 $32.5: S4 1.8 $32.3 $32.5 $32 .5 Y/Y %Cha nge -1.9% -2.0% -16.7% -34 .8% 1.5% 36.8% 4.8% -2.9% -2.6% 39.0% 30.0% -24.7% -6.1% , -22.7% 0.5% 0.0% South &acl,
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.6 $27.6 $27 .6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 Y/Y % Change 0.0% 0.0% -5.7 % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
$4 1.9 $40.3 : $4 1.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0
-3.8% I 0.0% -2.2 % -18.2%
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29 .8
Y/Y% Change
$28.6 525.5 $25.7 $25.5 $26.2 $27.4 $28.6 $29.7 $29.3 $30.1 $31.6 $31.9 $32.6 $32.2 $32.6 $32.6 $32.9 -4.0% -10.8% 0.5% -0.5% 2.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.7% -1.2% 2.6% 4.9 % 1.1% 2.2% $50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
$45
-c- $40
:g$35 -!::----- - -
~$30 ~
j $25
ci $20
il $15
~ 2008
- North County
2012
- Carlsbad
sso r------- -------- ------
-
Oceanside
2016
- Son Morcos
--
- Encinitas
1.2% 0.1% 0.8%
-----
2020
Vista
$35.4 $32.5
2.5% 6.2%
$31.2 $29 .l
2.2% 5.2%
$25.3 $24.0
3.0% 3.2%
$27.4 $26.9
-1.0% -0.5%
$40 .5
2.9%
$23 .2
4.7 %
$31.6
1.3%
$37.2
6.1 %
$22.7
2.7%
$28.5
9.4%
$34.7 $29.0
4.5 % 2.8%
$41.1 $32.1
9.1%
$31.1 $29.3
1.9% 4.9%
545 l _ _ _ _ Historica l Gross Direct Rent ($/S F)
~ $40 _ _ _ .,, .,, -', , _
~ sJs ----- --~- _ _ ,,. ..,. ..._, - ,_ =.I
vi. .... - ~ - - -- ,,,,,. ....
f::~ t-----~----. -.--,..... --- _______ ..,.......-.:.:==:.-=-,~ ...... .:.:.._==----==-----~.;-;,;; ~ ----- ------ , ..::.:::_-_---- :-:::-=------- - -=- -------- - ... ~ $20 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ .... ___ -=- ... ... I ~ , ____ _
~ $ 152()()8 I I I
2012
_ - Village - - Olde Carlsbad
'"No ottice property in Avioro submorkets
2016
Sou1h 8eoch - - Industrial Corridor
2020
Source: Costar
21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Rents Page 3 of 5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT EXHIBIT V-2
0 n ,....
....
_-...J
N
0 N
N
;::;:
ro
3 :ti:
N
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual
Market Fodor ,w .. v, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ======= ------ --- ------ --- --------- --- 2019 2020 2021 N orth Coun ty
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Carlsbad
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Vacancy
Y/Y % Chang e
San Marcos
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
rtiidn"ilas
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
V-1$/a -
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
Village
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
South Beach
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
Ca-nm
Vacancy
l
" ~
~
8 ~
Y/Y % Change
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2""""'
2008
30.0%
16.0% 18.3% 15.7% 14.2% 13.2% 12.0% 11.1% 10.1% 11.0% 11.9% 11.0% 10.4% 11.7% 11.0%
14.4% -14.2% -9.6% -7.0% -9.1% -7.5% -9.0% 8.9% 8.2% -7.6% -5.5% 12.5% -6.0%
23.1% 23.5% 24.3% 20.8% 18.9% 16.2% 14.0% 15.8% 18.8% 18.4% 16.5% 14.5% 14.1% 14.4%
1.7% 3.4% -14.4% -9.1% -14.3% -13.6% 12.9% 19.0% -2.1% -10.3% -12.1% -2.8% 2.1%
18.0% 20.9% 17.7% 17.0% 14.2% 13.5% 14.7% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 8.2%
16.1% -15.3% -4.0% -16.5% -4.9% 8.9% -15.6% -15.3% -18.1% -4.7%
15.3% 19.6% 17.4% 16.1% 15.5% 15.4% 12.4% 10.8% 7.3% 8.1% 6.2%
28.1% -11.2% -7.5% -3.7% -0.6% -19.5% -12.9% -32.4% 11.0% -23.5%
7.9%
-3.7%
8.0% 5.3%
1.3% -33.8%
5.9% 8.5% 9.0%
5.9% -4.8% 44.1%
10.3% 9.5% 7.0% 5.3% 5.0% 3.9% 5.1% 3.8% 2.4% 4.5% 3.9% 3.3% 5.7% 5.3% -7.8% -26.3% -24.3% -5.7% -22.0% 30.8% -25.5% -36.8% 87.5% -13.3% -15.4% 72.7% -7.0%
15.0% 18.0% 17.3% 16.1% 16.9% 20.1% 17.6% 11.7% 13.0% 13.5% 10.6% 14.7% 17.0% 17.0%
20.0% -3.9% -6.9% 5.0% 18.9% -12.4% -33.5% 11.1% 3.8% -21.5% 38.7% 15.6% 0.0%
3.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% 6.2% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 6.9% 3.1%
34.2% -29.4% -25.0% 14.8% 29.0% 55.0% 21.0% -32.0% -35.3% -45.5% -22.2% 392.9% -55.1%
21.2% 18.6% 15.1% 14.6% 7.8% 10.8% 9.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% -12.3% -18.8% -3.3% -46.6% 38.5% -10.2% -70.1% -24.1% 27.3% -46.4%
1.6% 0.0%
6. 7% -100.0%
6.3%
17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6%
1.8% -1.2% -11.7% -17.2% -11.2% -27.0% -2.5% 43.0% 8.0% -5.7% -14.8% 37.8% -80.7%
21.9% 21.8% 26.5% 22.0% 21.0% 17.3% 16.0% 18.1% 19.8% 21 .7% 24.2% 21.7% 18.0% 18.2% -0.5% 21.6% -17.0% -4.5% -17.6% -7.5% 13.1% 9.4% 9.6% 11.5% -10.3% -17.1% 1.1% -
-
-
2012
- North County - Cotlsbod
Historical Vacancy (%)
Ocean side
Historical Vacancy (%)
--
2016
- SonMocro s
-
~
OVERALL
Quarterly Annual Average
2021 Q2 202 1 Q3 202 1 Q4 2022 Q 1 ~ ~
12.0% 11.6% 11.0% 11.3% 11.2% 11.3%
-3.3% -5.2% 2.7% 0.0% -5.0%
14.4% 14.6% 14.4% 13.4% 15.6% 16.2%
1.4% -1.4% -6. 9% -5.2% -7.1%
6.4% 5.0%
-21.9%
5.3% 6.3% j 7.6% 10.3%
6.0% 18.9% I -12.8% -20.8%
8.6% 8.1% 9.0% 8.2%
5.6%
-5.8% 11. 1 % -8. 9%
6.1% 5.3%
8.9% -13.1%
5.6%
5.7%
16.1% 16.8% 17.0% 17.0%
4.3% 1.2% 0.0%
4.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.4%
-15.6% -18.4% -22.6%
2.2% 6.1%
177.3%
6.3% 3.5%
3.3% -44.4%
7.5% 9.9%
4.3% -11.0%
4.5%
17.2%
4.3%
0.0%
14.6% 15.2%
5.5% 1.1%
3.3% 4.2%
-9.5% 2.8%
2.4% 4.6%
23.4% -15.5%
0.8% 0.0% 2.6% 1.8% , 9.9% 10.1%
0.0% 225.0% -30.8% I -25.5% -29.7%
17.4% 18.3% 18.2% 16.1%
- Encindos
5.2% -0.5% -1 1.5%
.
- -
2020
Vista
20.8% 19.6%
-1.7% -3.7%
--- . --
.,,
QJ
OQ
ro
I.O
....
25.0%
l
20.0% --~-------------------~-------:::. ----------------------------------- ~:~----------- -- - - - -- ---~ - - : : ~ : ; -- ~ "'= -=-=---":: --_-: ;_---::-::: :: -= '!c-e..~ -~-----:__--:__ -_-_ -_ -------- 0 -....
" 15.0%
c
"' 10.0%
~
-...J w
C:
8 5.0% -- -------- - - - - -- - - - - - - -- - - -
~ 0.0%
2008
- - Village
•No office property in Avioro submarkets
21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Vacancy
2012
- - Old Ca~,bod
2016
S<x,th 8eoch
---,"lot... -- ... _____ , _,.
- ..,.. -~ - ~ -
2020
- - lndU$lriol Corridor
Source: Costar
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
0 n
-I-'
EXHIBITV-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annua l
~-...J Marke t Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20 15 2016 20 17 2018 2019 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -- - --- Nfib'ldttlfiM :3 Inventory (RBA, OOO's) 1,583
N Net Absorption
Vacancy 32. 1 %
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.4
Y/Y% Change
I Carlsbad - C/ciii_'-.
Inventory (RBA, OOO's) 4,507
Net Absorption
Vacancy 21.4%
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.3
Y/Y % Change
Carlsbad - Class C
1,583
3 31.9%
$31.5
-2.8%
4,666
107
21.8%
$26.0
-11.2 %
Inventory (RBA, OOO's)
Net Absorption
Vacancy
374 374
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y% Chonge
Rent Gap
Avs 8
Bvs C
Avs C
-16
4.9% 9.2%
$26.1 $22.5
10.7%
12.1%
24.1 %
-13.8%
21%
15%
40%
1,662
34 33.1%
$29.5
-6.4%
4,666
-19
22.2%
$23.8
-8.5%
374
-10
11.8%
$23.3
3.3%
24%
2%
27%
1,662
105
26.8%
$28.8
-2.4%
4,666
131
19.4%
$23.9
0.3%
1,662
90 21.4%
$27.9
-3.0%
4,666
19 19.0%
$22.9
-4.1%
374 374
-2 18
12.3% 7.5%
$22.2 $19.1
-4.6% -14. 2%
20%
8%
30%
22%
20%
47%
1,662
5 21.1%
$29.4
5.4%
4,666
177
15.2%
$23.4
2.0%
374
4 6.5%
$20.1
5.2%
26%
16%
47%
1,662
8 20.6%
$30.5
3.7%
4,666
140
12.2%
$26.2
12.3%
374
-4
7.5%
$22.7
13.2%
16%
16%
35%
1,839
35 26.3%
$31.7
4.0 %
4,743
58 12.4%
$27.0
3.1%
358
-10
6.1%
$24.4
7.4 %
17%
11 %
30%
1,839
40 24.1%
$31.6
-0.5%
4,975
-66
17.8%
$28.5
5.4%
358
0 6.2%
$26.9
10.5%
11%
6%
17%
1,839
66 20.5%
$31.7
0.3%
5,011
-1
18.4%
$28.7
0.8%
358
-4
7.2%
$26.2
-2.7 %
10%
10%
21%
2,067
289
15.3%
$31.8
0.5%
5,011
30 17.8%
$29.5
2.7%
358
8 5.1%
$27.7
6.0%
8%
6%
15%
2,2 44
168
14.5%
$32.7
2.9%
5,066
177
15.2%
$30.3
2.6%
358
-3
5.9%
$31.2
12.6%
8%
-3%
5%
Quarterly Annua l Average
2020 2021 202 1 Q2202l Q32021 Q42022 Q l 5-Yr 10-Yr
2,244
-56
17.0%
$33.4
2.1%
5,080
113
13.2%
$31.7
4.8%
2,244
18 16.2%
$34.2
2.3%
5,080
-25
13.7%
$32.0
1.0%
358 358
-15 -5
10.1% 11.5%
$33.3 $29.7
6.5% -10.7%
5%
-5%
1%
7%
8%
15%
--- --- --- --- --- ---
2,244
14.7%
$33.7
5,080
14.4%
$31.9
358
12.2%
$29.6
6%
8%
14%
2,244
-29
16.0%
$34.1
1.1%
5,080
20 14.0%
$32.1
0.6%
358
-5
13.7%
$28.2
-4.8%
6%
14%
21 %
2,244
-4
16.2%
$34 .2
0.4%
5,080
15 13.7%
$32.0
-0.1%
358
8 11 .5%
$29. 7
5.3%
7%
8%
15%
2,244
-4
16.4%
$34.1
-0.4%
5,080
66 12.4%
$32.2
0.5%
358
8 9.2%
$30.0
0.9%
6%
7%
14%
2, 127
97 16.7%
$32.8
1.6%
5,049
59 15.7%
$30.4
2.4%
358
-4
8.0%
$29.6
2.0%
1,930
66 19.7%
$31.5
3.5%
4,896
62 15.5 %
$28.0
6.0 %
363
-1
7.4%
$26.1
6.0%
7.7% 13.1%
3 .2% 8.5%
11.2% 23.2%
$35 •ross Direct Rent ($/SA . - ~ _ ~
----- -======~------========- -----, -------------------- --- ~ =- I ~
~ $30
Carlsbad - Historical C: ..•• , __ ,
~
~ $25
0 i: $20
~
-----=-- - ~ --
~ ~ $15 1---- -~----- -,~-----~--- --~-----~--- ---,--- ---~- -----r-----~------ ~-----~---- --::::':-::--------1 3 0 2008 ----2012 2016 2020 #
N
- Class A Class B
300 .---=====-=--=--=-~~---...._-------------------- Ca rlsbad - Net Absorpfio n(SF, OOO's) & Va cancy Rafe _ 250
" OJ c: 200
OQ 0
ro ·'E. 1 so
I.O ~
N j 100
Q,~ so .,
- ClassC
35%
30%
25% .,
20% ~
~
15% §
V
0 10% > ~z o
w 50
100 ~---:~;;----~~---~;-;-------:=:-----::::::-::----=-:-------:-::-:-:---~~---~-----======~--~~---~=-=] 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5%
0%
- class A - class B - classC - Class A Vacancy
2018 2019 2020 2021
Class B Vacancy - Class C Vacancy
21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Gap Page 5 of 5 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
0 fl
~
~
§
3 " ~
,,
'ii:
~
g,
~
~
w
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
200B THROUGH 2021
Annual
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Quorterl_t 202 1 Q2 2021 QJ 2021 Q4 2022 Ql
Class A
Avero.i.es
5-Yr 10-Yr -------Vllap,
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)
Net Deliveries
Net Absorption
Total Voconcy Rote
Vocont SF
Gross Rent D;rect ($/SF)
% Change
,Qt6,lpl_
Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs)
Net Deliveries
Net Absorption
T otol Vacancy Rate
Vocont SF
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
% Change
Sovths.ach
-c-
~ ;;
~
e g
,g
i ;;
~
e g
,g
Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs)
Net Deliveries
Net Absorption
T otol Vacancy Rate
Vacant SF
Gross Rent D;red ($/SF)
%Change
s;o,,;doc.
-Inventory SF (RSA, 000s)
Net Deliveries
Net Absorption
Total Vacancy Rote
Vacant SF
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
%Change
1,178
0 71
26.8%
316
$32.78
-4.7%
1,178 1,257
0 80
-5 20
27.2% 30.2%
320 380
$32.60 $30.30
-0.5% -7.1%
1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257
0 0 0 0 0
69 47 -13 -6 -20
24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1%
311 264 277 283 303
$29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31.41 $31.92
-24% -0-5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6%
100 .--------------- - - ------------Net Deliveries
80 60
40 20
1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 I ~ 1,306 1,306 1,306 I 1,296 0 0 48 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 10
-11 14 75 23 -43 37 : -21 5 4 I 21 - I 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% I 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% I 21.3% 314 300 274 251 294 257 I 242 262 257 261 I 275
$31.56 $31.71 $31.81 $33.07 $33.69 $34.41 : $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 534.39 : $32.94 -1.1% 0-5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2. 1% I 1.4% .0_1% -0.1% I 1.7% 0+----:-:-:--::--+--- - -+--'-- '---+-- - -+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----1. - L_-+-----+--- --+-----l 2008 2009 2010
South Beach
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
■ lndustrtal Corridor
2016 2017 2018
■ Olde Carlsbad
2019
■ Village
2020 2021
100 ~--------- ------- - ------- NetAbsorpt ion-------------- ------- - ---- ----- - - 80 60
40 2
~1 I I I I ' ! I I I I I J I I I I r:::J I 1 C n= I I I t :1 L_j .____,a i i c:::::J I 1 -20
-40
-60 J._ ________ _____ ______ _ _____ _ ____ _ _____ ____ _______ _______ _ _____ __, 2008 2009 2010
South Beach
2011 2012 2013 2014
■ Industrial Corridor
2015 2016 2017
■ Olde Carlsbad
2018 2019
■ Village
2020 2021
1,277
5 10
22. 1%
282
$31.94
1.5%
21091.00 Office Trends . Closs A: Performance (Sub) Poge6~of 4 TI-lE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
EXHIBITV-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS Closs A
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual
Morbt Factor ,s~ 2008 2009
, Q1.1c111e!:2: • Avaraa ai
2010 2011 2012 2013 201 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202 1 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q-4 2022 Q l I 5-'fr 10-Yr m1l:'!m1
9,509 9,59A 9,705 9,785 9,785 9,961 10,034 10,134 10,,37 10,61' 11,068 11,068 ! 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 ! 10,66• 10,259 lnv-,,to,y SF Ill.BA. OOOll 8,726 9,373 Net Oel111erOM 6'7 136 8• l 12 80 0 176 73 100 303
"' N•AbsQfption 482 518
Tolol VOCQney Rot. 19.~ 20.1" 15.8%
Vocont SF 1,719 1,68A 1,502
Gron Rettl Dititd 1$/Sf) $38.82 $35. 15 $34.33
"Change -9.S1' -2-~
hw11ntOI')' SF jR.BA,, OOOJ) 1,583 1,583 1,662
NeitOeliY«llll 0 0 80
Net Absorption 85 3 34
Total VOCOf'C}' R.o1e 32. 1% 31.n 33 1%
Yoe.ant Sf 508 505 550
Gross Reni Oired (5/Sf) 532 .43 531.52 529.49
"Chango --'·"' -2.8" -6.4"
hw.,..tory SF (R.BA. ooo.t II• 1" 171
Neil Del,ve,ie, 1" 0 57
Net AbsorpttOn 7 57
Total Voconq Rot• 6•.3" $8.6" 39.~
Vocont SF ,. 67 67
Orou R.eflt Direct fS/Sf) SJ• 78 532 10 532.13
"Cha~ 3 611 .,_,,. o.,,. ,,,._
hw-,ito,y SF (R.BA, OOOt.) 361 361 361
Net o.liv«iN 96 0 0
Net AbsorpttOn 10 -3 .9
TotolVoconcyRo1e 26"" 26.7" 29.1"
Vocont Sf .. 96 105
Ofos1 Root Oired ($/Sf) $3,404 531.57 531 69
" Cho• -2-°" -7 . .,,. 0.A~
NO'! Delive,ies
NetAb,.orptio,i
Total Voconcy Rot•
Voe.on! Sf
Gron 11:.nt Dired (S/SF)
"Chotl(N
-lnv.n lOfy' Sf (RSA. ooo.J 55 55 55
Not o.lrlOl'iff 0 0 0
N• AbsorpttOn ·6 -7 7
Total Vacancy R.oi. 10.8" 23,0,. 11.1"
Vocont SF 13
Orou Roni Dir.ct IS/Sf) $34 17 S34.17 S34.17
loCh~ 0.0,0 00,0
350
300
!
,so
1 200
!
8 ,K
150
100
so
-50
.100
2008 2009 2010
Vista
,so
!
200
1 ! ISO
8 ,K
100
so
0 2008 2009 2010
Vista
Sown:Co.Stor
21091.00 Offic• lr•nds • Clon A: Perlonmnco (City)
Oct.17,2022
282
13 6"
1,305
$33.61
-2.1"
1,662
0 105
26.8"
'46
S28.77
.2., ,.
171
•
371"
63 $29.00
-9.lti
361
0 16
2• 6"
89 $31.88
0.6"
55 0
0 10.5"
$34.17
0.0,0
2011
2011
339 129 .39 107 35
11.1"- 10 5"' 10.~ 11. , " 11.7'91,
1,077 1,027 1,067 1,136 1,174
$33.97 $35.38 $36.13 S37 .7O s .. 1.19
1.11'
'""
2.1" ,_.,,. 9_.,,.
1,662 1,662 1,662 1,839 1,839
0 0 0 176 0
90 s 8 35 40
2'-'" 21.1" 20.6" 26.3" 24.1%
356 351 3'2 ◄ 8• <A3
527.91 $29. 42 530.52 531.74 531.57
-3.0,0 5.4" 3.,,.
'""
-0.S,.
171 171 171 171 171
0 0 0 0 0 ., 6 -21 -8
13,0,. 9..4" 21.5" 21 5" 26.2"
22 16 37 37 •5
528.91 S28.37 S26 85 $27.49 S27.93 .,,_.,,. .J.9'. -5.41, 2.49' 1.6% 432 432 432 432 432
71 0 0 0 0
98 13 -5 18 13
14.3" 11.4" 12.6" e.,,. 5.5%
62 •9 5• 36 24
530.81 $31.2 , $31.14 531.27 $31 47
-3.A'I,
'·"'
.,,_.,,. 0.41, 0.69'
55 55 55 55 55
0 0 0 0 0
-8 5 ., 9 -6
25.8" 17.0% 18-8" 2.,,. 12.7" ,. 9 10 7
$28.71 $32.92 532.92 $34. 12 S3A.12
-16°" , .... ~ 00,0 3. 69' o ....
N•I Abt.orpt,On
2012 2013 201"
Encinifos Son Mocros
N•tO.lli .... rio,
7012 2013 201 4
Encirutcu Son Morcos
70 ... 0 I 0 0 0 I 207 w
.} IA 283 302 233
11~::!
221 11 -1 ••: 187 151
13.7" 13.5% 12, I" 136" 13 6% 11.6'91, 11.5% l2.e4A. I 12.~ 12.0% 1,388 1,409 1,28-4 1,505
S4
1 /1
7 1
3 !
1,505 1,28.4 1,273 1,4 17 : 1,372 1,234
Ul.65 $42.22 $41 .83 s,1.12 S-42.43 SA:2.35 $44 .11 $44. 27 I $42 . 19 $39.53
1. 1% 1.4" -<l.9% -1.~ 7.,,. I -<l.2!1
'·""
0.41' I 1.49' 2.8'1 I I
1,839 2,067 2,244 2,244 2,244 1 2., ... 2,2'4 2,2 '4 1,244 I 2,127 1,930 0 228 177 0 0 I 0 0 0 I 81 58
66 289 168 -56 18 : -29 ·• .4 : 97 66
20.5" 15.~ 1,.5,. 17.0% 16 2" I 1, .7,. 16.0% 16.2% 16.A" I 16.7% 19.7", 377 316 325 381 363 : 330 359 363 368 : 353 37'
S31.66 $31.82 $32.73 S33.43 534 .20 I 533 .67 $34.05 S3,t20 53•.05 I S32 77 SJl.50
0.,,. 0.5" 2.9% 2. 111 2.~: 1111 0.4" -0.f'K : 1.6"
'"'
171 171 171 256 256 1 256 256 256 205 188
0 0 0 85 0 I 0 0 17 I 29 -11 3 92 9 I 12 0 2S ,.
9"" ,..,,. 13.8" 6.5" 2.8" : 7.311 2.8"
'·""
2.8" 9.5" 13 9%
15 26
"
17 7 I 19 7 7 7 18 25
$27.79 528.30 529.08 531.77 S32.23 I 132.69 $32 ,05 $32. 23 132.13 519 83 $16.8 7 -0.S'I
'·""
2.8'1 9_.,,.
'·'":
-2.0% 0611 0.0,0 2.9%
'"' I
I
432 •32 •32 432 432 I 432 432 432 432 432 432
0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 0
-7 -23 16 1 20 3 0 -2 13
5,5" 4 ,7,. 6.311 116% 7.9'. : 13.,,. 8.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.2% 8.8'< 2• 20 27 so 34 I 57 37 34 34 31 38
$31 .63 131.87 533 .99 $34.39 $34.54 : 53•.01 $34.02 $34 .5,4 $33.5 1 533 .28 532 2 A
0.5" 0.8'1
··"'
1.:1!1 0.A" I 00,0 1,5,. -3.0,0 1.9% 0.8'<
I
I
I ... , ... I
... ,
... I I --· 1
... ,
I ··· 1 _,
I
55 55 55 55
I
55 : 55 55 55 ., 55 55
0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 0
·• ' ., 3 I 3 0 0 0 I 20.9" 18.6" 15.2" 166" 12.4" I 18.6% 12.A% 12 "" l2.A% 17.1" 16 2" II 10 8 10 7 I 10 7 7 7 9 9
S35.32 $35.32 $35.32 $37.72 $38.13 : $37 .72 $38 13 $38.13 $38. 13 $36.36 $34 ,./16 J.59' 0.0,0 0.0,0 6.8'1
I.I"! '·'"
0.0,0 0.0,0 2.:1!1
''"
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2070 2021
• O~id•
""""'"""
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
• ~id• ■ Corilbod
THE CONCORD GROUP
hm •2 P11• 94 of 173
DRAFT
~
_!:j
~
§
.., .
',l
~
2. ~
;;:
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE • RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
Closs A
200B THROUGH 2021
Annual
Market Fodor 2008 2009 2010 2011 201 2 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 17 2018 2019 2020 202 1 Q uarte r!!_
202 1 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2 022 Ql
Annual Average
5-Yr 10-Yr --- - -- ------t®hiM,!
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $38.8 $35.2 S34.3 $33.6 $34.0 $35.4 $36.1 $37.7 $41.2 $41.7 $42.2 $41.8 $41.1 $44.1 j $42.4 $42.4 $44.1 $44.3 Y/Y%Chonge - -9.5% -2.3" -2.1% 1.1% 4.2% 2.1% 4.3% 9.3% 1.1% 1.4% -0.9% -1.7% 7.3% I -0.2% 4.2% 0.4% ~
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $32.4 $31.5 $29.5 $28.8 $27.9 $29.4 $30.5 $31.7 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $32.7 $33. 4 $34.2 l $33.7 $34.1 $34.2 S34.1 Y/Y%Chonge - -2.8% -6.4% -2.4% -3.0% 5.4% 3.7% 4.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1 1.1% 0.4% -0.4% - Gross Roni Dirod ($/SF) $34. 8 $32. 1 $32.1 $29.0 $28.9 $28. 4 $26.9 $27.5 $27.9 $27.8 $28.3 $29.1 $31.8 $32.2 j $32.7 $32.1 $32.2 $32.2 Y/Y%Chongo -7.7% 0.1% -9.7% -0.3% -1.9% -5.4% 2.4% 1.6% -0.5% 1.8% 2.8% 9.3% 1.4% I -2.0% 0.6% 0.0% Son Morcos
Gross Roni Direct (S/SFJ $34.0 S31.6 $31.7 $31.9 $30.8 $31.2 $31.1 $31.3 $31.5 $31.6 $31.9 $34.0 $34.4 $34 .5 : $34.0 $34.0 $34.5 $33.5 Y/Y%Chonge -7.3% 0.4% 0.6% -3.4% 1.4% -0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 6.7% 1.2% 0.4% 1 0.0% 1.5% -3.0% Gross Roni Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y% Change v-_ _
GrossRen t Direct(S/SF) $ 34.2 $34.2 $3 4.2 $34.2 $28.7 $32.9 $32.9 $34.1 $34.1 $35.3 535.3 S35.3 $37.7 $38.1 l $37.7 $38.1 $38.1 $38.1 Y/Y%Chonge 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 16.0% 14.7% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 1.1% 1 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Village
Gross Roni Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y% Change
~ :::::J
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y% Change
Sovth S.Och
Gross Rent D;red ($/SF)
Y/Y% Change
Gross Rent Dirod (S/SF) $32.8
Y/Y% Cha nge
$32.6 $30.3 $29.6 $29. 4 $30.4 $31.4 $31.9 $31 .6 $3 1. 7 $31.8 $33.1 $33. 7 $34.4 -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1. 1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% $50 Histodcal Gross Direct Rent ($/Sf)
$45
~$40
~ $35
~ $30
~ $25
i5 $20
$34.0 $34.4 $34.4 $34 .4
1.4% -0.1% -0.1%
$42.2 $39.5
1.4% 5.6%
$32.8 $31.5
1.6% 3.5%
$29.8 $28 .9
2.9% 2.1%
$33.3 $32.2
1.9% 1.6%
S36.4 534.5
2.2% 2.2%
$32 .9 $31.9
1.7% 3. 1%
] S15 -1-----~-----~----~-----~----~-----~----~-- ---;:::-:----~-----~----~-- ---;,;; -----, '!; 2008 2012 - Carlsba d
2016
- Son N\arcos
2020
Vista - North County Oceanside Encinitas
$50 Historical Gross Dired Re nt ($/SF)
$45
~ $40
~ $35
~ $30
-~ $25 0
----- ------- - - - -- -----. ...... ~ - - - - - -- __ - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - ------- c S20
: s1s L----~-----~----~--- --~ ----~---- -~----~-----:~----~---- -~----~ -----:;;:::;;;-----1 8 2008 2012 2016 2020 - - Industrial Corridor
:,ource: l,,,.ostar
21091.00 Office Trends - Closs A: Rents Page 3 ol 4
71 THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
~ ....
:,.J
§
~
3 ,.
N
":J .. "' "' "' g, ....
--.J
"'
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual
Class A
Quarter!}'. Market Factor
Norlh Count y
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual Avera11e
2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql ~ ~
Vacancy
Y!Y%Change
@Ii!#
Vacancy
YIY % Change
Vacancy
Y(Y % Change
Son Matros
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
rEi'!<i11-tle
Vacancy
YIY % Change
V acancy
YIY % Change
Vi/lag•
Vacancy
Y(Y%Change
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
South &ach
Vacancy
Y(Y% Change
I
19.7% 20.1% 15.8% 13.6% 11.1% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.7%
2.0% -21.4% -13.9% -18.4% -5.4% 3.8% 4.6% 2.6%
13.7% 13.5% 12.1% 13.6% 11.5% I
17.1% -1.5% -10.4 % 12.4% -15.4% I
I
32.1% 31.9% 33.1% 26.8% 21.4% 21.1% 20.6% 26.3% 24.1% 20.5% 15.3% -0.6% 3.8% -19.0% -20.1% -1.4% -2.4 % 27.7% -8.4% -14.9% -25.4%
14.5% 17.0% 16.2% :
64.3% 58.6% 39.3% 37.1% 13.0% 9.4% 21.5% 21.5% 26.2% 9.0% 15.3% -8.9% -32.9% -5.6% -65.0% -27.7 % 128.7% 0.0% 21.9% -65.6% 70.0% -5.2% 17.2% -4.7% !
13.8% 6.5% 2.8%
-9.8% -52.9 % -56.9 %
26.0% 26.7% 29.1% 24.6% 14.3% 11.4% 12.6% 8.4% 5.5% 5.5% 4.7% 6.3% 11.6% 7.9%
2.7% 9.0% -15.5% -41.9 % -20.3% 10.5% -33.3% -34.5% 0.0% -14.5% 34.0% 84. 1% -31.9 %
10.8% 23.0% 11.1% 10.5% 25.8% 17.0% 18.8% 2.3% 12.7% 20.9% 18.6% 15.2% 18.6% 12.4% 113.0% -51.7% -5.4% 145.7% -34.1% 10.6% -87.8 % 452 .2% 64.6% -11.0% -18.3% 22.4% -33.3% Vacancy 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0 % 19.2% 22.5 % 19.7% Y!Y%Change 1.5% 11.0% -18.2% -15.0% 4.8% 2.3% 7.1% 3.7% -4.4% -12.1 % -8.6% 17.2% -12.4%
13.6% 11.6%
-14. 7%
14.7% 16.0%
8.8%
7.3% 2.8%
-6 1.6%
11.5%
-0.9%
16.2%
1.3%
2.8%
0.0%
13.3% 8.6% 7.9%
-35.3 % -8.1%
12.8% i 12.9% 12.0%
11.3% ! -0.3% -3.3%
16.4% j 16.7% 19.7%
1.2% ! -7.6% -9.6%
2.8% j 9.5% 13.9%
0.0% I -36. 1 % -40.4%
7.9%
0.0%
7.2% 8.8%
7.5% -20.3%
18.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% 17.1%
-0.5%
16.2%
3.4%
18.5%
-33.3% 0 .0% 0.0%
20.1%
8.6%
19.7%
-2.0%
I
--- I
--- I
I
I
20.0% : 2 1.3%
70.0% Historical Vacancy (%) ---------- -------------------------,
60.0% -
1.5% I -4.7 %
22.1%
-4.4%
~
" ~
~
" 8
~
~
.!!
cl1
~
" 8
~
50.0%
~H~t---- -- - ===--~ -- ---=- - ~ - J 10.0% ~ - - =::j
0.0% ----.-----..-----...-------,.-----.------...-- ......_ -- -
2008 2012
- North County - Corl,bod Oceanside
2016
-San Macros --Encinitas
35.0% Histo rical Vacancy(%)
30.0%
2020
Vista
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
- - - - -- - - -----·- - ~----------------------------~ .. -------------------------
5.0% I ------.- ---r-- ----:-~-- ---.-:-----,----~- - ---.-- -~:-----,------, - - - -r------:;:-::::;:---0.0% +- 2008 2012 2016 2020
- - Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Vacancy Page 4 of 4
72 THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
EXHIBIT V-2
0 fl OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Class B
" SELECT SUBMARKETS
§ 2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual I Quarterly I Averages
MarketFoctor(SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201" 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022Q1 1 5-Yr 10-Yr ,-- - ----- ~ ___ -_-_-_-_~_-_-_-____ ---- ------- _ : --- Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs) 221 221 221 221 221 221 22 1 224 224 229 229 229 243 243 I 243 243 243 243 235 229 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O 3 0 5 0 0 13 0 I O O O 4 2 Net Absorption 1 0 5 -2 -5 3 -2 -3 6 10 3 -2 3 7 I O -3 2 4 2 Total Voconcy Role 3.9% 4.0% 1.8% 2.7% 5.0% 3.8% 4.8% 7.5% 4. 7% 2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 6.1% 3.2% I 2. 3% 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 3.0% 4.1% Vocont SF 9 9 4 6 11 8 11 17 11 6 3 5 15 8 I 6 5 8 6 7 9 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) S26.02 $21.54 $20.00 $23.55 $23.77 $21.60 $22.88 $27.87 $31.98 $35.39 $32.88 $32. 19 $18.56 $34.94 I $34.30 $35.51 $34.94 $35.90 $30 .79 S28.21 % Change -12.0% -17.2% -7.1% 17.8% 0.9% .9.1% 5.9% 21.8% 14.7% 10.7% -7. 1% -2. 1% -42.3% 88.3% : 3.5% -1.6% 2.7% 1.8% 4.0% i:Clri6iif - ---- --------- ------------- . ---- ------Inventory SF (RSA, 000s) 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 8 1 81 I 81 81 81 8 1 I 81 81 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O I O O O I O 0 Net Absorption -7 10 5 5 4 -4 0 10 -1 2 2 0 0 -8 I -4 0 4 I -1 0 TotalVaconcyRote 40.3% 27.7 % 21.8% 15.8% 11.4% 16.4% 16.5% 3.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0 .0% 0.0% 0 .0% 9.7% I 4.3% 9.7% 9. 7% 4.3% I 2.4% 6.4% Vacant SF 33 22 18 13 9 13 13 3 3 2 0 0 0 8 I 3 8 8 3 I 2 5 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $36.38 $35.67 $34.46 $30.91 $18.84 $19.23 $27.65 $26.89 $24.89 $25. 41 $35.52 $30.51 1 $30.51 $30.5 1 $30.51 I $30.48 $26.12 %Change 50.5% .2.0% .J.4% -10.3% -39.0% 2.1% 43.8% -2.7% -7.4% 2.1% 39.8% ••• : 0.0% 0.0% I 4.2% -0.1% Sovths.och
Inventory SF (RSA, OOOs) 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 j 140 140 140 140 140 140 Net Deliveries O 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I O O O O 0 Net Absorption -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 I O -3 1 2 2 TotolVoconcyRote 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% I 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 9.9% 10.1% Vocont SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 I 1 1 4 3 14 14 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $27.60 $27.60 S27.60 $26.0 4 $26.0 4 $26.04 $26.04 $41.93 $40.32 I $4 1.24 $4 1.24 $40.32 $33.00 $41. 13 $32.07 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -· •- -3.8% 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% -· 4.5% .......,Aiii#i-
lnventorySF (RBA,OOOs) 1,178 1,178 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,296 1,277 Net Deliveries O O 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption 71 -5 20 69 47 -13 -6 -20 -11 14 75 23 -43 37 -21 5 -4 21 10 Total Vacancy Role 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.1 % VocantSF 316 320 380 3 11 264 277 283 303 3 14 300 274 251 294 257 242 262 257 261 275 282 Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $32.78 $32.60 S30.30 $29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31. 41 $31.92 $31.56 531.71 $31.8 1 $33.07 $33.69 $34.4 1 $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 $34.39 $32.94 $31.94 %Change -4.7% -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2. 1% ·- 1.4% -0.1% -0.1% 1.7% 1.5% 100 .-------- ------- - ------ ------- --Net Deliveries 'C' 80
~ 60
1 e 40
a ,
~ 20
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beoch a Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■Village 100 ~----------- - ------- ------ - --- NetAbsorption
80 'C" 60
l 40
l 20
e o
Q
5- -20
.., "' f -40
~ -60
!a. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202 1 ~ South Beach ■ Industrial Corridor ■ Olde Corlsbod ■ Village 21091 .00 Office Trends. Closs B, Performance (Sub) Poll"r~ of 4 THE CON CORD GROUP DRAFT
Mo rket Foc:tor (Sf)
frM?ffiW
tmoenlOfY Sf (RSA, OOOll
Net[)el;.wim
N.t Absorption
T ofol Voconcy 11:ale
VocQ(ll Sf
Gro.s Rent Oir9Cf !S/Sf)
"Chorive
Inventory Sf jll:BA, OD<n)
N .. Oeli¥eriM
NetAbso,ptlOl'I
T otol Vacancy Role
Vocont Sf
Gros, Rent OirK1 IS/Sfl
"Change
Inventory SF (RSA. O00..j
N•o.trvet"iM
Net Abs«ption
T otol Vacancy Ra1e
Vocont Sf
Gross Rent Dired (S/SFI
"Change
--1,wenlory SF IRBA. 000.1
Nei~~-
Nef Absorpt ion
TotalYo«.JrlCY ltote
Voconl Sf
Orou Rent Direct ($/SF)
" ChOf'IO"
~
Inventory SF (RSA, 000.I
Neto.tiv.,-i.,
Net Absorption
Totol Vocooc;y Rat.
Vocont Sf
Gtoss Rent Oiuad IS/Sf)
"Change
~
lnvMIOI')' Sf (RSA, CK>Os)
NMOeliYe,iu
Nllf Absorption
T otat Voconcy Rote
Vocont Sf
Oros, R.nt O.rect IS/Sf)
"'"ortQe
2008
16,878
15,546
12,83 4
16.51'
2,785
S31.91
.,o.n
4,507
119
.55
21 4"
96A
529 .30
0.0,0
989
Ul
96 17 °" 168
530.72
4.4"
69A
103
" 13 6"
9A
S31 33
28."'
1,35•
22 .55
11 11'
150
$33.08
-7.S'4
1,097
62 .A3
17.3'1!
190
$29.99
19.~
2009
17,183
306
-295
l9.71J.
3,385
S27 50
-13.-"'
4,666
159
107
21 .8%
1,017
$26.02
-11.215
1,015
26 .7
19.8"
201
$26.59
-13."'
751
57 -20
172
S28 •6
-9,2'5
1,35•
0 " 10.1"
137
SJ0.05
-9,2"
1,160
63 7
21.11'
2'6
$28 .32
-5.6'4
2010
17,294
111
50,
11.n
2,992
$26.32
-'.3'1
4,666
0 -19
22.2"
1,036
S23.82
.es"
1,095
80 102
16.-4'4
180
S25 56
"·""
759
7 37
18.8"
1'3
S28.02
., 5"
1,35•
0 37
"" 100
SJ0.85
2.7"
1,160
0 " 19 3"
22,
$28.62
'·'"
2 011
17,3•9
55 3A0
15 69'
2,706
526 .62
1.1"
4,666
0 131
905
S73.89
0.3'1
1,106
11 19
15.5"
171
S22.71
-11,2"
759
0 • 18.~
139
S27. 19
-3.0'I
1,35-i
0 30
5. 2"
70 S3 1 •1
,..,.
1,160
0 31
16.6"
193
S26.72
-6.6"
2012
17,291
.57
-A8
15.61'
2,697
$26.66
0.21<
4,666
0 19
19 01'
887
$22 .90
""·'"
1,106
0 .3
15.8"'
175
$25.00
10.1"
757
- 1
-28
21.9%
166
S25.93
-4.6'11i
1,358
•
5.41'
73 S32.20
2.5'4
1,160
0 .3
16.9%
196
S25.S2
-4.5"
2013
17,407
115
,.,
13 5%
2,350
$26 67
0.0,0
4,666
0 177
15.2%
709
523.35
2.0,0
1,163
57 6 4
1-4.5%
169
S20.28
-18.9"
757
0 -1
22.0%
167
s2s.•o
-2.0'I
1,358
0 18
4.1"
56 S32 .46
....
1,160
0 -52
21.•'Jt'i,
2'8
$23 .26
-8.9'1!
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKITT
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual
201.t 20 15
17,462
55 362
11.7%
2,0 -43
S28.01
5.0,0
•.666
0 140
12.2"
569
$26.22
1,185
22 23
167
$20. 55
1.3'1
757
0 " 16. 2"
123
$26.60
5. 5"
1,392
3<
16 5.3"
$32 .•9
0.1"
1,160
0 39
18.0%
209
$22 .26
-<.3'1
17,66 4
202
'78
10.0%
1,766
$29.00
3.S"
4,7 43
77 58
12. 4%
588
$27.02
3.1 ..
1,200
16 11.•"
137
S22. 11
7.6"
787
30 ,o
, •. 3"
113
S27.53
'·"'
1,392
0 15
4.2"
58 $35. 99
JO.ft
1,167
6 96
10 2%
119
$23 .17
""
2016
17,874
111
-132
11 8%
2,109
$30.89
6.5"
4,975
232
-66
17.8"
886
S28.•9
5.4':I'
1,200
0 "
113
$22.29
0.8'1
787
0 " 10.2"
80 S28. A2
J 21<
" 2.7"
38 S37 09
3. 1"
1,167
0 -32
12.9%
151
S22.93
·'·°"
20 17
17,886
11 .79
11.n
2, 200
$30 -46
·'·""
5,011
36 -1
922
$28.71
0.8'1
1,200
0 0
113
$2A.00
7.7"
8'7
60 " 11.•"
97 $26. 13
• -32
5.3"
$38.98
5. 19'
1,178
12 -6
l A.3'1'.
169
$21 .68
-5.S"
20 18
17,9 10
25 25 5
11.0%
1,970
SJ0.72
o.""
5,01 1
0 30
17.,.
892
529.48
Vll
1,200
0 23
7.5"
90 $23.-49
863
16 32
9.3"
80 $27 .20
17 "·'" 57
$37.81
"·°"
1,178
0 " 10.6"
125
$21 09
-2.7'1
2019
18,070
160
10.6%
1,915
S31.21
1.6"
5,066
55 177
15.2"
770
$30 26
2.6"
1,200
0 2
7.3"
..
$22 .79
-3.0'I
863
0 29
5 ....
51 $28.08
3.21,
1,-423
24 27
3.8'<
5A
SA0 .3 ◄
6"'
1,178
0 -87
18.0%
212
$21.17
0.4'4
2020
18,2 10
140
-167
12.2%
2,222
S32,77
50,0
5,080
13 113
13 21<
671
$31.70
'·"'
202 1 j 2021 Q2
I 18,248 1 18, 203
38 I
70 1
12.0% : n n
2,190 : 2, 330
534.19 I S33 39
4.3'5 :
5,080 I
0 I
-25 :
13.7"' I
696 :
$32.01 I
'•"" :
5,080
731
S31 .85
----& 1 1,300
100
68 9,2"
120
863
0 -12
7.3"
63 1,A23
0 -37
91 SA2.30
'·""
1,178
0 .:,,
20.~
$25.68
21.~
1,29• I
-6 :
AO I
5.7"' '
7A :
$25.56 I
3.3'1, :
I
I
863 1
0:
-18 1
9.•" :
81 I
$2A.80 :
-9."' I
I
1,-483 !
60 I
65 :
5.8" .
86 1
$A2.60 :
0.7% 1
I
I
1,178 :
0 I
. :
206" I
2•3 :
$26. 88 I
"·"' !
1,29•
7,6"
98 S25.5-4
863
6 ....
60 $27.53
1,423
6.3'1
90 $"2.91
1,178
20.1"
237
$26,51
Quo..,.rty
2021 QJ 202 1 Q 4
18,263
60 16
13 °" 2,J]A
533.83
1.3'1
5,080
0 20
711
S32.05
0.61'
1,29A
0 25
5,7"
863
0 -16
8.7"
75 s2e .•1
3 .21,
l,•83
60 A9
6.8"
101
$42.05
-2.°"
1,178
0 -8
20.8"
S27 67
18 ,248
-15
169
1201'
2 , 190
$3.f 19
,.,~
5,080
0 15
13.7',
696
$3'1.01
-0.1"
1,29A
0 0
5.7"
7A
S25.56
0.51. 863
0 81
$2A.80
.J2."'
l,A83
0 15
5.8'<
86 $-42.60
1 3'I
1, 178
0 2
20.6"
2'3
$26 .88
-2.~
Closs 8
2022 Ql j
18,1'8 I
5-Y, 10-Yr
18 11.,.
2,172
$3-4.6.
1.3'1
5,080
0 66
1'1.•"
630
S32 .16
0.59'
1,29A
0 ·"
96 863
0 73
$26.JA
6 21<
l ,A83
0 0
5.8'<
86 s•2.•6
.03'1
1,178
0 -2
20.8"
2'5
$26.64
-<>-""
18,065
75 59
11.6"
2 ,099
$31 .87
2.lll
5.049
" 59
15.l"
790
S30.AJ
2.4~
1,239
19 27
7.,.
97 $ 2A. l2
, ....
860
15 15
8.7"
7A
$26 .73
-2.1"
1,A26
18 8
5.1"
73 S◄0 • 1
2.8'1
1, 178
2 -16
16.9"
199
$23.30
3.21,
17,802
90 '2, 146
$30.06
2 5ll
•.896
" 62
15.5"
759
$28 .0 1
30,0
1,205
19 29
12,
$23.0!I
1.21<
015
10 16
12.8"
102
$26.78
1,A02
13 11
66 $37.23
3 l ll
1, 171
2 .3
192
S.23,36
0 ' "
300 ~-------- --------- - ------ NetAbaorption __________________________________ ~ 250
200
! 1 150
! 100
J 50
-50
-100
-150
. 200 ~-------------- ------------------------- -----------------------~ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201 • 1015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Visto • fneinitos Son MouOf ■ Oeeomide
500 ~------------------------- Net Delli,..,;., _________________________________ --, •50
,oo
i 1 350
i 300
,1 250
200
150
100
50 2008 2009
21091.00 Office Trends • Class 8. Pcwformonc• (City!
O<t..17, 2022
2010 2011 2012 2013
Visro Encinitas
201A 20 15 2016 2017 2018 2019 1020 2021
Son Marcos ■ Oceanside ■ Corl$bod
THE CONCORD GROUP
1t,m 1'2 P11• ,a ol 17-'
DRAFT
~
~
-" ,_,
§
ii
3 ~
:: " :g
!!.
~
"'
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
Closs B
200B THROUGH 2021
Annual
Market Fodo r - ·- . --·- · 2008 2009 2010 20 11 2012 201 3 2014 201 5 2016 2017 201 8 2019 2020 2021 Quarterl,t
2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q 4 2022 Ql
Annual Average
5-Yr 10-Yr ;;;;;;;;;;;;:;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; - ----- - ----- --- --- --- - ----- --- - - - ------- -t@,UW ----- - Gross Rent Dired (S/SF) $31 . 9
Y/Y % Change
Carlsbad
Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $29.3
Y/Y % Change
~
Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $30.7
Y/Y % Change --
San Marco,
Gross Rent Dired (S/SF) $31.3
Y/Y % Change ·-
'm;initr,,
Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $33.1
Y/Y % Change
Yi,ta
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.0
Y/Y% Change --
Village
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $26.0
Y/Y % Change
$36.4
Sovth 8t1ach
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $27.6
YIY% Change
$32.8
$27.5 S26.3 $26.6 $26.7 $26.7 $28.0 $29.0 $30.9 $30.5 $30.7 $31.2 $32.8 $34.2 -13.8% -4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 5.0% 3.5% 6.5% -1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 5.0% 4.3% $26.0
-11.2%
$ 26.6
-13.4%
$28.5
-9.2%
$30.1
-9.2%
$28.3
-5.6%
$21.5
-17.2%
$35.7
-2.0%
$27.6
0.0%
$32.6
-0.5%
S23.8 $23.9
-8.5% 0.3%
S25.6 $22.7
-3.9% -11.2%
$28.0 $27.2
-1.5% -3.0%
$30.9 $31. 4
2.7% 1.8%
$28.6 $ 26.7
1.1% -6.6%
$20.0 $23.6
-7.1% 17.8%
$34.5 $30.9
-3.4% -10.3 %
$27.6 $26.0
0.0% -5.7%
$30.3 $29.6
-7.1% -2.4%
$22.9
-4.1%
$25.0
10.1%
$25.9
-4.6%
$32.2
2.5%
$25.5
-4.5%
$23.8
0.9%
$18.8
-39.0%
$26.0
0.0%
S29.4
-0.5%
$23.4
2.0%
$20.3
-18.9%
$25.4
-2.0%
$32.5
0.8%
$23.3
-8.9%
$21.6
-9.1%
$19.2
2.1%
$26.0
0.0%
$30.4
3.2%
$26.2
12.3%
$20.6
1.3%
$26.8
5.5%
$32.5
0.1%
$22.3
-4.3%
$22.9
5.9%
$27.7
43.8%
S26.0
0.0%
$31.4
3.4%
$27.0 $28.5
3.1% 5.4%
$22.l $22.3
7.6% 0.8%
$27.5 $28.4
2.7% 3.2%
$36.0 $37.1
10.8% 3.1%
$23.2 $22.9
4.1% -1.0%
$27.9 $32 .0
21.8% 14.7%
$26.9 $24 .9
-2.7% -7.4%
$31.9 $3 1.6
1.6% -1.1%
$28.7
0.8%
$24.0
7.7%
$26.l
-8.1%
$39.0
5.1%
$21.7
-5.5%
$35.4
10.7%
$25 .4
2.1%
$31.7
0.5%
$29.5 $30.3 $31.7 $32.0
2.7% 2.6% 4.8% 1.0%
$23.5 $22.8 $24.7 $25.6
-2.1% -3.0% 8.6% 3.3%
$27.2 S28. l $27.5 $24.8
4.1% 3.2% -2.2% -9.7%
$37.8 $40.3 $42.3 $42.6
-3.0% 6.7% 4.9% 0.7%
$21. l $21 .2 $25.7 $26.9
-2.7% 0.4% 2 1.3% 4.7%
$32.9 $32.2 $18.6 $34.9
-7.1% -2.1% -42.3% 88.3%
$35.5 $30. 5
39.8%
$41.9 $40.3
$31 .8 $33 .1 $33.7
0.3% 4.0% 1.9%
-3.8%
$34.4
2.1%
$50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/ SF)
$45
_ $40
!,:.
~ $35 b-
~ $30
~ $25 -
$33.4 $33.8 $34.2 $34 .6
1.3% 1.1 % 1.3%
$31.9 $32. l $32 .0 $32 .2
- 0.6% -0.1% 0.5%
$25.5 $25.4 $25.6 $25.3
-0.4% 0.5% -0.9%
$27.5 $28.4 $24.8 $26.3
3.2% -12.7% 6.2%
$42.9 $42.l $42.6 $42.5
-2.0% 1.3% -0.3%
$26.5 $27.7 $26.9 $26.6
4.4% -2.9% -0.9%
$34.3 $35.5 $34.9 $35.9
-- 3.5% -1.6% 2.7%
$30.5 $30.5 $30.5
0.0% 0.0%
$41.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0
$34.0
0.0% -2.2% -18.2%
$34.4
1.4%
$34.4
-0.1%
$34.4
-0.1%
-
$31.9
2.1%
$30.4
2.4%
$24. 1
2.8%
$26.7
-2.7%
$40.4
2.8%
$23. 3
3.2%
S30.8
1.8%
$30.5
4.2%
$41. l
S32 .9
1.7%
$30.l
5.1%
$28.0
6.0%
$23.l
2.4%
$26.8
-1.8%
$37.2
6.3%
$23.4
0.1%
$28.2
8.2%
$26.l
-0.3%
$32.1
9. 1%
$31.9
3.1%
-
- --
c s20 l---~ ---~---~- --~---~ ---~- --~-----::.:-:----~-- -~--- ~----;;;;;-------4 ~ $15 ~ 2008 2011
- Carlsbad
2016
- Son Marcos
2010
Vista - North County Oceanside Encinitas
~ $40
>SO ~ H;.,oo,a G~ ~- ~- l>/SO $45 -- - ~
~ - - - - - ------------ - - - -- - -- - - -..-..l .,,.._"'1.. - - - - - - - -~ $35 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ __________ ::._ ..,._ _ c. -;:_ ____ - ., -,,J":-_ - , , .._ ,;, ,; ~$30 --~---- :::....- ----- --- ·------- - --- --=.. -.. ,, \ , ; , ' t - ' - /· --~ ----~-----r! ' ~ ' ,,, -I _g $25 -.. ____ - ~ _ _ _ _ ,, ___ - , ,; 0 - - - - - - - - - - - ..... - - - ~-- ' '; c $20 - - - - - - - - \ 0 '::; S15 , , 20'12 , 1016 "" 2008 0
- - Olde Carlsbad South Beach - - Village
;::,ource: L.Osrar
2020
- - Industrial Corridor
/
/
21091.00 Office Trends . Closs 8: Rents Poge 3 ol 4
75 THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
~ .... _...,
~
N
N
;.
3 ..
N
,:,
" .. "' §
!l. .... ...,
w
EXHIBITV-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS Class B
Market Factor
North County
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
Carlsbad
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Son Man:os
Vacancy
Y/Y%Change
.f,iQ.(!j/g,_
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
Vi/lag•
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
Vacancy
Y/Y %Change
Soulh Beach
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
7i
Vacancy
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20 16 2017 2018
16.5% 19.7% 17.3% 15.6% 15.6% 13.5% 11.7% 10.0% 11.8% 12.3% 11.0%
19.4% -12.2% -9.8% 0.0% -13.5% -13.3% -14.5% 18.0% 4.2% -10.6%
21.4% 21.8% 22.2% 19.4% 19.0% 15.2% 12.2% 12.4% 17.8% 18.4% 17.8%
1.9% 1.8% -12.6% -2.1% -20.0% -19.7% 1.6% 43.5% 3.4% -3.3%
17.0% 19.8% 16.4% 15.5% 15.8% 14.5% 14.1% 11.4% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5%
16.5% -17.2% -5.5% 1.9% -8.2% -2.8% -19.1% -17.5% 0.0% -20.2%
13.6% 22.9% 18.8% 18.3% 21.9% 22.0% 16.2% 14.3% 10.2% 11.4% 9.3%
68.4% -17 .9% -2.7% 19.7% 0.5% -26.4% -11.7% -28.7% 11.8% -18.4%
11.1% 10.1% 7.4% 5.2% 5.4% 4.1% 5.3% 4.2% 2.7% 5.3% 4.1% -9.0% -26.7% -29.7% 3.8% -24 .1% 29.3% -20.8% -35.7% 96.3% -22.6%
17.3% 21 .2% 19.3% 16.6% 16.9% 21.4% 18.0% 10.2% 12.9% 14.3% 10.6%
22.5% -9.0% -14.0% 1.8% 26.6% -15.9% -43.3 % 26.5% 10.9% -25.9%
3.9% 4.0% 1.8% 2.7% 5.0% 3.8% 4.8% 7.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.1%
2.6% -55.0% 50.0% 85 .2% -24.0% 26.3 % 56.3% -37.3 % -46.8% -56 .0%
40.3 % 27.7% 21.8% 15.8% 11.4% 16.4% 16.5% 3.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% -31.3% -21.3% -27.5% -27.8% 43.9% 0.6% -78.2% 19.4% -51.2 % ####
17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5%
1.8% -1.2% -11.7% -1 7.2% -11.2% -27.0% -2.5% 43.0% 8.0% -5.7%
26.8 % 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% Y/Y % Chan. ,g:_:e ____ _______ _____ ___ _ -_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_,,,-25.0% T
1.5% 11.0% -18.2% -15.0% 4.8% 2.3% 7.1% 3.7% -4.4% -12.1 % Historical Vacancy (%)
2019 2020 2021
10.6% 12.2% 12.0%
-3.6% 15.1% -1 .6%
15.2% 13.2% 13.7%
-14 .6% -13.2% 3.8%
7.3% 9.2% 5.7%
-2.7% 26.0% -38.0%
5.9% 7.3% 9.4%
-36.6% 23.7% 28.8%
3.8% 6.4% 5.8%
-7.3% 68.4% -9.4%
18.0% 20.9% 20.6%
69.8% 16.1% -1.4% I
2.0% 6.1% 3.2%
81.8% 205.0% -47.5%
0.0% 0.0% 9.7%
9.8% 13.5% 2.6%
-14.8% 37.8% -80. 7%
19.2% 22.5% 19.7%
-8.6% 17.2% -12.4%
Quarter~
202 1 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql --- --- --- - - -
12.8% 13.0% 12.0% 11.9%
1.6% -7.7% -0.8%
14.4% 14.0% 13.7% 12.4%
-2.8% -2.1% -9.5%
7.6% 5.7% 5.7% 7.4%
-25.0% 0.0% 29.8%
6.9% 8.7% 9.4% 8.5%
26.1% 8.0% -9.6%
6.3% 6.8% 5.8% 5.8%
7.9% -14.7% 0.0%
20.1% 20.8% 20.6% 20.8%
3.5% -1.0% 1.0%
2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 2.5%
-8.7% 52.4% -21.9%
4.3% 9.7% 9.7% 4.3%
125.6% 0.0% -55.7%
0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8%
0.0% 225 .0% -30.8%
18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0%
8.6% -2.0% 1.5%
Annual Average
5-Yr 10-Yr
11 .6% 12.1%
0.3% -5. 1%
15.7% 15.5%
-5.1% -6.7%
7.8% 10.4%
-9.5% -18.1%
8.7% 12.8%
-1.6% -12.5%
5.1% 4.7%
16.5% 2.2%
16.9% 16.4%
9.8% 4.4%
3.0% 4.1%
-7.4% 3.5%
2.4% 6.4%
17.7% -9.3%
9.9% 10.1%
-25 .5% -29.7%
21.3% 22.1%
-4.7% -4.4%
20.0%
£ 15.0%
" L_
~ 10.0% 1-f'==------.... .... -
~
C:
0 1
5.0%
0.0%
2008
---- ------
~ -
- ~ =~ - ~ - 1
l
.!!
ell
~
C:
0 u
~
2012
- North County - Carlsbad Oceanside
45.0% ~ ------------------ ------------- Historical Vacancy(%) 2016
-SonMo cros Encinitas
2020
Vista
""" - ------------------------""" --- -------- ---------- ----- - 32I: ---- ---- ·-- - - - --- a-------.-- ::_ - - - - -- -- - -.- --- -- - - ~-·----~ - --- ,,::..,;- . ---~ -- -- - -. - - -- -""" ------------ ~ ---- ----- =-.:.•-=~------ --- --15.0% _ _ _ - - __ - - - - - - - - 1 ~:g~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
--- -- ----
0.0%
2008 2012
- - Village - - Old Carlsbad
2016
South Beach
2020
- - Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Class 8: Vacancy Page 4 of 4
76 THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
EXHIBIT V-2
~ OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Class C
" SELECT SUBMARKETS
~ 2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual I Quarterly I Averages
Market Foctor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q l I 5-Yr 10-Yr !'iii!
lnventorySF(RBA, OOOs) 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 167 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O -16 0 O O O O O O O O O -2 Net Absorption 5 -5 1 6 3 -6 -6 -14 3 2 2 4 -12 8 2 6 1 1 -2 Total Voconcy Role 3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% 8.0% 2.8% 7.7% 6.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.7% 4.4% Vocont SF 7 11 10 5 1 8 14 12 9 7 5 1 13 5 12 10 5 4 6 7 Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $24.23 $19.62 $20.95 $19.62 $21.31 $22.01 $27.08 $25.66 $26.86 $26.48 $29.02 $30.83 $33.90 $31.2 4 $32.49 S32.91 $31.24 $32.03 $30.29 $27.44 % Change -6.7% -19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3% 23.0% -5.2% 4.7% -1.4% 9.6% 6.2% 10.0% -7.8% -- 1.3% -5. 1% 2.5% 3.1% 4.8% 9'i Ai¥¥ - ---,,,..----,,,,.----,,..---..,,.,---..,,.,---..,,.--- ...... --....,,,...---,,,,.----=-=----= . --..,,.,---.,,.,.. Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 I 79 79 79 79 I 79 79 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O : 0 0 0 : 0 0 Net Absorption -1 -6 1 -4 7 -1 2 0 2 -3 0 0 3 -2 I -2 0 0 I O 1 TotalVocancy Rote 1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0% 2.8% I 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% I 2.5% 2.7% Vocont SF 1 7 6 10 3 4 2 2 0 3 2 3 0 2 : 0 2 2 2 : 2 2
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) S25.79 S25.35 $24.00 S 17.15 S 17.58 $17.35 $17.35 $32. 74 -- $33.36 $45.93 $34.58 $43.57 1 $41.81 $44.05 $43.57 $43.57 I $39.36 $30.31 % Change -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0% 37.7% -24.7% 26.0% : 5.4% -l.1% 0.0% : 5.9% 9.8% Sovths.ad,
Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs)
Net DelfVeries
Net Absorption
Total Vacancy Rote
Vacant SF
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
o/, Change
iiw"jiii"c.ii
Inventory SF (RBA, OOOs) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 j 9 9 9 9 j 9 9 Net Deliveries O O O O O O O O O O O O O O I -- 0 0 0 I O 0 Net Absorption O O -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 : 0 0 0 : 0 0 TotalVocancyRote 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0 .0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% I 11.6% 16.6% Vocant SF O O 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 O I O O O O I 1 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $41.97 $4 1.97 $29.37 ... : $29.37 $29.37 .•. ! $29.37 529.37 % Change -- 0.0% -· ! 0.0%
100 -,--------- ---------- -------------- Net Deliveries BO
;[ 60
i 40
~
~ 20
g 0
CT
"' -20
-40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 South Beach ■ lndustriol Corridor ■ Olde Carlsbad ■ Village 15 ~------------ ------- ---------- --Net Abs.orption
10 - I s
" -3 ! 0
" u.. ..., ~
g -5
-o CT
~ v, -10
8 -15
2, 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202 1 .;j South 8eoch ■ lndvstrK>I Corridor ■ Olde Corlsbod ■ Village 21091.00 Office Trends - Closs C, Perfonnonce (Sub) Pog"7~ of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
Morbt Fodor !SF) 2008 2009
~m,1m!
lnvvi,tory SF (RBA,. DOOsl 4,707 -'i,707
NM Deliveries A,.432 0
N.i Ablorpl1on 4,073 .94
T otol Voconcy Rate 1.7" 9.7"
Voconl SF 362 ,.,
Gron Rent Oifed (S/SF) $22.A A S20.82
"ChoflQe -38.~ -7.2"
lnvento,y SF (RBA, 000,j 37A J7A
N.t o.liveriM 0 0
N.t Absorption 2 -16
l Ofol Vo<:ancy Role ..... 9.2,
Vacant Sf 18 3'
Ol'oss Rent Dir.ct IS/Sf) $26.13 S22.53
"Cho ... 0.9" -13.~
lmrenlory Sf IRM. 0OOsl 4 18 '1 8
N.t Deliveries 0 0
Net Absorption -9 -23
TOfol Voconcy Role 7.7" 13.3%
Vocont Sf 32 56
Gross Renl Direct ($/Sf) $25.23 $22.69
% Change 4.6" .,o.,,
s..,-
Inventory SF (RBA, OOCn) 433 433
N.t Deliveries 0 0
N.t Ab.orpti<>n -9 5
lOfol VOCOflCY Rate 9 °" 7.8'1
VocQnt Sf 39 3'
Grou Renl Oired (S/SF} $17.-i3 $16.57
"Change S.5" .. .,.
lnvenlory SF (RSA. OOCn) 279 279
Nel C>.iivllJl'ies 5 0
Neil Absorption -11
l otol Vacancy Role 6.8" .,,.
Vocont Sf 19 19
Gross Renl Direct (S/SF) $32 .26 $28.69
"Chan;e -12.1" .JI.I%
'Mio,
1r,veolory Sf IRBA. 000.1 531 531
Neto.IN•- 0 0
NllfAbt.orption -22
Tofol Vocoocy Rat. 10.7% 10.5%
Voconl SF 57 56
Grou Rent Dired {$/Sf) S19.98 $17.90
"Cho• '.,, .,o.4~
60 ,o
:a j 20
!
~
Jf
-20
-40
-60
2008 2009
12 10
I i
!
~
Jf
2008 2009
21091 00 Office lr.nds. Clem C: Performance (City)
Oct.17.2022
2010 201 1 2012 2013
4,712 4,710 4,712 4,711
5 .1 1 0
.25 58 _.,
9 6" 10 1% 8.9" 9.8"
•52 .,. '19 •62
S20 38 U0.11 $18.73 S19 45
.2.1" -1.~ -6.9% 3.8'1
37' 37' 37' 37•
0 0 0 0
-10 ·2 18 4
11.8% 12.3% 7.5" 6.5%
.. •6 28
" $73. 27 S22.20 $19.05 $20.05
3.3" ..... -14.~ 5.2"
.,. '18 '18 A18
0 0 0 0
4 -2 10 -8
12.3" 12.8% 10.5" 12.3"
51 SA .. 51
S22.45 S2 l.97 $20. 76 $21.33
·''"
-2.1% -5,5'11, 2.7'1
433 431 All '31
0 -1 0 0
12 ,1 .3 .9
5.0ll 5.0ll 5.6% 1.7%
22 22 2A 33
$16.04 $15.16 $1' .99 S15 21
-3.2" -5.5" .J,I" J.S"
282 282 285 285
3 0 0
7 -1 10 0
5.2% S.5" 3.1%
"" 15 16 9 9
S31 04 S3-4. 12 $32.99 $32. 39
8.2" 9 ... -3.3" - 1.8
5, 0 540 5'0 5'0
9 0 0 0
-10 -10 .J -9
13.7'. 15.5" 161% 17.7"
"
84 87 96
$17.23 S16.5-4 SI 7.99 Sl8.26
-3 7ll
"'·°"
8.8" I 5"
2010 2011 2012
Vi .. o ■ Encinito..
2010 2011 2012
Vida
EXHIBIT V-2
O FFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE Class C SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 202 1
Annual Quon•!!l A'4roa ..
201 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 j 2021 Q2 2021 03 202 1 0 4 2022 QI i 5-Yr 10-Yr I I 4,701 .4,681 4,681 4,664 4,631 A,630 4,612 4,612 I 4 ,612 4,612 .. ,612 4,6 12 I 4,630 4,663 .11 -20 0 -17 .33 -2 -18 0 I 0 0 O I _,. -10
23 38 80 -30 25 -6 -22
6~;~ i
-28 _,. 37 : -13
""
7.9" 6.2"- 6.5" 5.3" 5 . .4" 5 5" 5.31' 5.9" 6.2" 5,-1" I 5.8 .. '·'" '28 370 290 303 2'5 250 25A
n/08: !
2U 272 286
n/14: !
268 331
$19.11 $19 23 $20,27 $21.01 $22.23 $22 48 S.25 28 $26.57 S27.23 $27 .05 S23 61 S21.A8 .J.~ 0.6" .... 3.711 5.8" 1.19' 12.s, 7(J,i I 2.5 ... -Clll O.~ I 5.9" 3.0,i I I
37' 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 I 358 358 358 358 358 363 -16 0 0 0 0 I 0 0 0 -2
·• -10 0 .4 • .3 .15 .5 : -5 • 8 .4 -1
7.5" 6 l" 6.2% 7.21' 5.1% 5.9" 10.1, 11.5" I 12.21' 13.7" 11.5" 9 .2 .. 8.o,i 1.," 28 22 22 26 18 21 36 ,, l .. .. "
33 28 27
$22.69 $2.(.36 S26.9 1 $26.17 S27 .7-i S31.23 $33.25 $29 .69 I $29.62 $28.20 $29.69 $29.97 $29.62 $26.11
13.~ 7.49', 10.5% -2.7'i 6.0,i 12.6'11, 6.5 .. .J0.7'6 : ...... 5.3" 0.9" '°"
2.9"
I
'12
"'
"1
"' "' "' "'
All I
"' "' .. -2 0 0 0 0 0 O I 0 -1 I
-11 9 18 .3 0 9 - 1 , -7 2
13. 7" 11 3" 6 .9" 6.4 ..
""
7.2" 5.1" 5,414 I 2.514 4.3" 5.414 6.2% 8.6%
56 •• 28 26 29 30 21 22 : 10 18 22 21 26 35
$20.78 $21.62 $22.80 S21 20 $24.20 SJ0.80 $28.07 $31.22 I S28.36 $29,.f9 S31 .22 $31.99 $27.10 $2A.28 -2.611 4.0,i s.s, ·'°"
14.7' 27.3'5 -8.9% JI.~: 4.0,i 5.9" 2,5'5 • 5" ....
I
I
'31 431 431 ,31 All '31 '31 .(31 I 431 431 '31 431 431 '31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 o l 0 0
-6 13 -1 11 -16 -11 -6 I 3 -12 6 I .5 -2
5.7"
'·°"
3.9" .f.2% 1.6" s., .. 7 ... 9.3% : ""
6.5% 9.3" 7.9" 5.7" 5.8"
25 30 17 18 7 23 3• AO I 31 28 40 3A ,. 25
$15.76 $15.67 $18 ... $15.70 $17 58 $ 18.77 Sl8.12 St8.40 : $17.29 $18. ,. $18.A0 $18.40 $17.71 $16 86
3.6" ~ .6'5
"·"'
- 1'.9" 12.0'I 6.,. ..J.5" 1.5% I , .... 1.49' o.o,i o .o,i 2.o,i I
I
285 285 285 285 285 285 284 28• I 28• 28• 28• 28' 285 285 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 I 0 0 0 0 0
-1 5 3 2 .. 6 .. -i: ., 0 .5 -1
3. 7% l.8" 0.9" 0.2% 3.3"
""
2.2% 2.7% I 2.1" 2.6" 2.7" .... 1.9" 2.2%
11 5 3 1 3 6 8 I 8 13
$31.62 $32 85 S35.48 $36.06 $45.26 $43.89 ' " 32 $43.03 ; $40.25 $40.06 $A3.03 $40.75 $42 .51 S37 .79 -2.415 3.9" 80.. , .... 2s.s,i, -3.0ll
'·°"
-2.9'1. I -CS" 7.4" .s.3'. 3.9" 23"
I
I
SAO SAO 5•0 SAO 5'0 540 5'0 5,m : SAO 5'0 540 5'0 5'0 540 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O I 0 0 0 0
5 • "
13 5 13 .. -3 1 .. -8 4 I
16.7". 16 o,i 13.4'/I, 10.9% 9.9" 7.4% 8.2" 9.7% I 7. ' " 8.3" 9.7" 9.1" 9.214 12.6" 90 86 72 59 53 •o .. 52 : 38 .. 52 ,9 50 68
$17. 77 S17.08 $18 .16 $20.77 $15.68 $16.34 $18.8 1 $27.52 I $18.81 $28.61 $27 52 $28,13 $19.82 $18.84 .2.1'% -3.9" 6.3"
'"·'"
-24.5. 4.2" IS. I. 46.3% ! 52. 115 .. .... 22" 8.7'1 5.2" Net Abaorp tion
■
-
2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Son Moc:ro,; • O~ru.•d• ■ Cari~
NetO.lli-..riet
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
■ Scm Morcos ■ Corlsbod
Poge2of4 THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
~
~
" ,.,
§
;.
3 " ,.,
'3
" m
~
@
a
~
" w
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual
Class C
Quartert.r
Morke1 Fodor . --·-· 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2020 2021 ~ 202 1 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average
5-Yr 10-Yr ------
North County
Gross Rent Dired ($/Sf) S22.4 $20.8 S20.4 $20.1 $18.7 S19.5 $19.1 $19.2 $20.3 $21.0 S22.2 $22.5 $25 .3 $27. 1 $26.6 Y!Y % Chonge -7.2% -2.1% -1.3% -6.9% 3.8% -1.7% 0.6% 5.4% 3.7% 5.8% 1.1% 12.5% 7.0% W®t
Gross Rent Dired ($/Sf) S26. l $22.5 $23.3 S22.2 $19.1 S20.1 $22.7 Y/Y % Change -13.8% 3.3% -4.6% -14.2% 5.2% 13.2%
~ j
Gross Rent Dired IS/SF) S25.2 $22.7 S22.5 S22.0 $20.8 $21.3 $20.8 Y/Y % Change -10.1% -1.1% -2.1% -5.5% 2.7% -2.6%
Son Marcos
Gross Rent Dired ($/ SF) S17.4 $16.6 $16.0 $15.2 $15.0 $15.2 $15.8 Y/Y % Change -4.9% -3.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.5% 3.6%
~ I
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF) $32 .3 $28.7 $31.0 $34.1 $33.0 $32.4 $31.6 Y/Y % Change -11.1% 8.2% 9.9% -3.3% -1.8% -2.4%
.V-""1 -
Gross Rent Dired (S/SF) $20.0 $17.9 $17.2 $16.5 $18.0 $18.3 Sl 7.8 Y/Y % Change -10.4% -3.7% -4.0% 8.8% 1.5% -2.7%
Village
Gross Rent Dired ($/SF) $24.2 Sl9.6 $21.0 $19.6 $21.3 $22.0 $27.1 Y/Y % Change -19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3% 23.0%
GrossRen tDired(S/SF) $25.8 $25.4 $24.0 $17.2 $17.6 $17.4 $17.4 Y/Y % Change -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0%
South S.ach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y % Change
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $42.0 $42.0
Y/Y % Change - · 0.0%
$24.4 S26.9 S26.2
7.4% 10.5% -2.7%
$21.6 S22.8 $21.2
4.0% 5.5% -7.0%
$15. 7 $18.4 $15 .7
-0.6 % 17.7% -14.9%
$32.9 $35.5 $36 .1
3.9% 8.0% 1.6%
$17.1 S18.2 $20.8
-3.9% 6.3% 14.4%
$25.7 $26.9 $26.5
-5.2% 4.7% -1.4%
$32 .7
$27.7 $31.2 $33.3 S29.7 j S29.6
6.0% 12.6% 6.5% -10 .7% !
S24.2 $30.8 $28.1 s31.2 i $28.4
14.2% 27.3 % -8.9% 11.2% I
$17.6 $18.8 $18.1 s 1a.4 l S17.3
12.0% 6.8% -3.5% 1.5% I
$45.3 $43.9 $44.3 $43.0 j $40.3
25 .5% -3.0% 1.0% -2.9% !
$15.7 $16.3 $18.8 $27 .5 : $18.8
-24 .5% 4.2% 15.1% 46.3% I
$29.0 $30.8 $33.9 s31.2 l $32 .5
9.6% 6.2% 10.0% -7.8% I
$33.4 $45 .9 $34 .6 $43.6 j $41.8
37.7 % -24.7% 26.0% .
I
I ·-- I
--- I I
I
s29.4 -·· l s29.4
... !
$27.2 $27.1 $27.1
2.5% -0.7% 0.3%
$28.2 $29.7 $30.0
-4.8% 5.3% 0.9%
S29.5 $31.2 $32.0
4.0% 5.9% 2.5%
$18.1 S 18.4 $18.4
4.9% 1.4% 0.0%
$40.1 $43.0 $40.8
-0.5% 7.4% -5.3%
S28.6 $27.5 $28.1
52.1% -3.8% 2.2%
$32.9 $31.2 $32.0
1.3% -5. 1% 2.5%
$44.1 $43.6 $43.6
5.4 % -1. 1% 0.0%
$29 .4
0 .0%
$23.6 $2 1.5
5.9% 6.1%
$29.6 $26 .1
2.0% 6.0%
$27.1 $24.3
6.5% 7.3%
S 17.7 $16.9
0.0% 3.9%
$42.5 $37.8
3.9% 4.7%
$19 .8 $18.8
8.7% 10.7%
$30 .3 $27.4
3.1% 9.7%
$39.4 $30.3
5.9% 20.5 %
$29.4 S29.4
::: 6 _ "''-;oo; G= o;- ~ ($,SO _ __
-;::-$40 --- - ~
I :!~ - --=---=-------- --- - - -~ -- ~ ---- . -7
-==-~ .i $25 g ·-
0 $20
~ $15
"'
--
=
2008
$50
$45
-;::- $40
>-
~ S35 -....
~$30
t;
-~ $25
0 c $20
0 ':; $ 15
2008 8
:>ource: l...Ostar
- North County
2012
- Carlsbad Oceanside
2016
- Son Morcos - Encinitas
2020
Vista
Hi,torical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
,-----,
,,,,,,-!lr,,._, ~
~ ' ,
I _.\.. , , ' I \
- t-- - ~
------ i __ \ -- ------- ' ,. - - - - - - ~ - ~ - I ',... I \ -------- r --------------- 1 \ I - -
I\.
I \.
------ 7~ -- ~~- ~::: ~::::~ -:: _____ '
201 2
_ - Village - - Olde Carlsbad
I
2016
South Beach
\. I
I
I
' I \
~
2020
- - Industrial Corridor
21091 .00 Office Trends - Closs C: Rents Page 3 of 4
79 THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
~
~
:"
2 "'
[
~
I
~
g
st
~
....
"'
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Class C
Annua l
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201 8 2019 2020 2021 Quarterl_r
2021 Q2 202 1 Q3 2021 Q4 202 2 Ql
Annual Average
5-Yr 10-Yr ------North Covnly
Gross Rent Direct (S/Sf)
Y/Y%Change
Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF)
Y/Y%Change
Gross Rent Direct (S/Sf)
Y/Y% Change
SonMarros
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF)
Y/Y% Change
[Eiiani'rir-
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y%Change
V'-
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF)
Y/Y% Change
Villofltl
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF)
Y/Y% Change
$22.4
S26.1
$25.2
Sl 7.4
$32.3
$20.0
$24.2
$20.8
-7.2%
$22.5
-13.8%
$22.7
-10.1%
$16.6
-4.9%
$28.7
-11.1%
$20.4 S20. l $18.7
-2.1% -1.3% -6.9%
$23.3 S22.2 $19.l
3.3% -4.6% -14.2%
S22.5 $22.0 $20.8
-1.1% -2.1% -5.5%
$16.0 $15.2 $15.0
-3.2% -5.5% -1.1 %
$31.0 $34.1 $33.0
8.2% 9.9% -3.3%
$19.5
3.8%
S20.1
5.2%
S21.3
2.7%
$15.2
1.5%
$32.4
-1.8%
$17.9 $17.2 Sl 6.5 $18.0 $18.3
-10.4% -3.7% -4.0% 8.8% 1.5%
$19.6 $21.0 S19.6 S21.3 $22.0
-19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3%
$19.1
-1.7%
S22.7
13.2%
$20.8
-2.6%
$15.8
3.6%
S31.6
-2.4%
$19.2
0.6%
$24.4
7.4%
S21.6
4.0%
$15.7
-0.6%
$32.9
3.9%
$20.3 $21.0
5.4% 3.7%
$26.9 $26.2
10.5% -2.7%
S22.8 $21.2
5.5% -7.0%
$18.4 $15.7
17.7% -14.9%
$35.5 $36.1
8.0% 1.6%
$22.2
5.8%
$27.7
6.0%
S24.2
14.2%
$17.6
12.0%
S45.3
25.5%
$22.5
1.1%
$31.2
12.6%
$30.8
27.3%
$18.8
6.8%
$43.9
-3.0%
$25.3 $27.1
12.5% 7.0%
$33.3 $29.7
6.5% -10.7%
$28. l $31.2
-8.9% 11.2%
$18.l $18.4
-3.5% 1.5%
$44.3 $43.0
1.0% -2.9%
S26.6
S29 .6
$28.4
$17.3
$40.3
$17.8 Sl7. l $18.2 $20.8 Sl5.7 $16.3 Sl8.8 $27.5 j $18.8
46.3% -2.7% -3.9% 6.3% 14.4% -24.5% 4.2% 15.1%
S27.1 $25.7 S26.9 $26.5 $29.0 $30.8 S33.9
23.0% -5.2% 4.7% -l .4% 9.6% 6.2% 10.0%
$31.2 i S32.5
-7.8% I
$27.2
2.5%
S28.2
-4.8%
S29.5
4.0%
SIB.I
4.9%
$40.l
-0.5%
$28.6
52.1%
S32.9
1.3%
$27.l
-0.7%
S29.7
5.3%
$31.2
5.9%
$18.4
1.4%
$43.0
7.4%
$27.5
-3.8%
$31.2
-5.1%
I
$27.l :
0.3% I
I
I
$30.0 I
0.9% I
$32.0
2.5%
$18.4
0.0%
$40 .8 _
-5.3% :
I
$28.l
2.2%
$32.0
2.5%
GrossRentDirect($/SF) $25.8 $25. 4 $24.0 $17.2 $17.6 $17.4 $17.4 $32 .7 $33.4 $45.9 $34.6 $43 .6 $41.8 $44 .1 $43.6 $43.6 Y/Y % Change -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0%
Sovth Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y%Change
37.7% -24.7% 26.0% 5.4% -1.1% 0.0%
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y%Change
$42.0 $42.0 $29.4 $29 .4 $29. 4
0.0% 0.0%
$50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/ SF)
$45
$23.6 $21.5
5.9% 6.1%
$29 .6 $26. l
2.0% 6.0%
$27.1 $24.3
6.5% 7.3%
$17.7 $16.9
0 .0% 3.9%
$42.5 $37.8
3.9% 4.7%
$19.8 $18.8
8.7% 10.7%
$30.3 $27 .4
3.1% 9.7%
$39.4 $30.3
5.9% · 20.5%
$29 .4 $29.4
_ $40
~ $35
J $30
~ $25
i5 $20
~ - - -- _.;.-,.____ --~=----- -------==-='" ~
-------- +i $15
~ 2008
- North County
2012
- Carlsbad Oceanside
~
2016
- Son Morcos
$50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/ SF)
-
Encinitas
2020
Vis1o
.,.,,...---
-..... - .......... $45 - - ,,. ,
- S40 I - - - - - \ ,,. ..,,. ....., , ,,,,,,. ,,,,,,.
~ I \ ,, ,, - - _.,_ - -
~ $35 / \ \ L- ~ - - - - - - -
4,4 - - ~ --- /
- $30 f- - \ _ -t - ~ - - - - - - - - - r I \
~ $25 - - - - - - - J.. - - \ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - I \ j" / \ O ----- __ , _____ __ _ ____ \.. ------- - I \ I ✓ \
i $20 - I - - - - ..\ - - - - - - - - - - - ' I I
'::; $15 --·- '
8 2008 2012
- - Village - - Olde Carlsbad
:x>urce: L.Ostar
2016
South Beach - - Industrial Corridor
2020
21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Rents Page 3 of 4
79 THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
~ ....
·"
~
:::!
;.
3 "' N
Market Fodor
North County
Vacancy
Y/Y% Chonge
Corlsbad
Vaca ncy
Y/Y% Chonge
Or»iiiiiidi
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
San Morcos
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
//#aw
Vacancy
Y/Y% Cha nge
Vi/lag•
Vaca ncy
Y/Y% Change
- Camba;/
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
South &ad,
Vacan cy
Y/Y % Change
~Ctimdtir
Vacancy
l
Y/Y % Change
20.0%
15.0%
" 10.0%
~
~ C:
8 ~
l
" ~
5.0%
0.0%
2008
-
--
-
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
7.7% 9.7% 9.6% 10 .1% 8.9% 9.8% 9.1% 7.9% 6.2% 6.5% 5.3%
26.0% -1.0% 5.2% -11.9% 10.1% -7.1% -13.2% -21.5% 4.8% -18.5%
4.9% 9.2% 11.8% 12.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 5.1%
87.8% 28.3% 4.2% -39.0% -13.3% 15.4% -18.7% 1.6% 16.1% -29.2% 2019
5.4%
1.9%
5.9%
15.7%
2020
5.5%
1.9%
10.1%
71.2%
7.7% 13.3% 12.3% 12.8% 10.5% 12.3% 13.7% 11.3% 6.9% 6.4% -7.2%
7.1%
10.9%
7.2% 5.1%
72.7% -7.5% 4.1% -18.0% 17.1% 11.4% -17.5% -38.9%
9.0% 7.8% 5.0% 5 .0% 5.6% 7.7% 5.7% 7.0% 3.9%
-13.3% -35.9% 0 .0% 12.0% 37.5% -26.0% 22.8% -44.3%
6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 5.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9%
-1.5% -22.4% 5.8% -43.6% 3.2% 15.6% -51.4% -50.0%
10.7% 10.5% 13.7% 15.5% 16.1% 17.7% 16.7% 16.0% 13.4%
-1.9% 30.5% 13.1% 3.9% 9.9% -5.6% -4.2% -16.3%
3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6%
73.0% -9.4% -55.2% -73.1% 5 14.3% 83.7% -7.6% -23.3%
1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0%
481.3 % -11.8% 62.2% -69.2% 26.8% -50.0% -15.4% -100.0%
1.4% -29.2%
4.2% 1.6% 5.4%
7.7% -61.9% 237.5%
0.2% 3.3% 1.2%
-77.8% 1550 .0% -63.6%
10.9% 9.9% 7.4%
-18.7% -9.2% -25.3%
4.3% 2.9% 0.6%
-23.2% -32.6% -79.3%
3.5% 3.0% 3.2%
-14.3% 6.7%
7.9%
46.3%
2.2%
83.3%
8.2%
10.8%
8.0%
1233.3%
0.0%
-100.0 %
2021
6.2%
12.7%
11.5%
13.9%
5.4%
5.9%
9.3%
17.7%
2.7%
22.7%
9.7%
18.3%
2.8%
-65.0%
2.8%
0 .0% 0.0% 43. 7% 43.7% 59 .7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0%
0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0%
0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0 .0%
-66.4% -100.0%
-
- North County
,,
~
., .,
. --- _ Historical Vacancy(%)
--=-----
20 12
- Carlsbad
-------~ - - - - -,~ ' ,------
' ,·
'
Ocea nside
Historical Vacancy (%)
-
--------
2016
-Son Macros
-
";:/ ~
OQ C: .. 8 .... 8:8~ :i=---0 ~
-~~~~:;~~:-::::::~~~=::-..;-;;~;;~~=~~~~==~=---~-
"' 5!, 2008
.... _ - Village ...,
"'
2109 1.00 Office Trends - Closs C: Vacancy
2012
- - Old Ca~, bod
BO
2016
South Beach
Class C
Quarter~
2021 Q2 202 1 Q3 2021 Q 4 2022 Ql
Annua l Average
5-Yr 10-Yr - -- --- --- --- - - -- ----
5.3% 5.9% 6.2% 5.4% 5.8% 7.1%
11.3% 5.1% -12.9% 0.0% -9.3%
12.2% 13.7% 11.5% 9.2% 8.0% 7.4%
12.3% -16.1% -20.0% 13.2% -1.3%
2.5% 4.3% 5.4% 5.1% 6.2% 8.6%
72.0% 25.6% -5.6% -4.8% -15.9%
7.2% 6.5% 9.3% 7.9% 5.7% 5.8%
-9.7% 43.1% -15.1% 19.0% 13.2%
2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 4.6% 1.9% 2.2%
23.8% 3.8% 70.4% 24.6% -13.3%
7.1% 8.3% 9.7% 9.1% 9.2% 12.6%
16.9% 16.9% -6.2% -6.3% -8.9%
7.7% 6.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3. 7% 4.4%
-18.2% -55.6% -17.9% -12.9% 1.5%
0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7%
16.7% 0.0% -26.8%
0.0% 0 .0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6%
-100.0%
'--
~ ~
Encinitas
4 ✓
,, ,,
- - Industrial Corridor
2020
Vista
2020
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
~ .... _ .... ...,
§
EXHIBITV-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
200B THROUGH 2021
Annua l
Class C
Quarter!l_
Market Fodor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 202 1 Q3 202 1 Q4 2022 Ql Annual Average
5-Yr 10-Yr
i;
3 .. ...,
~ .. " ....
0 a,
s. .... .... "'
North Counly
Vacancy
Y!Y% Change
Carlsbad
Vacancy
Y!Y%Change
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
San Marcos
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
'&aiiiiii
Vacancy
Y/Y % Chc,_ri_ge
y,a1q
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Village
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
raiie:~
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Soulh Beach
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Vacancy
l
Y/Y% Change
20.0%
15.0%
" 10.0%
~
~ C
8 ~
l
" ~
~
C
8 ~
5.0%
0.0%
2008
2008
7.7% 9.7% 9.6% 10.1% 8.9% 9.8% 9.1% 7.9% 6.2% 6.5% 5.3% 5.4%
1.9%
5.5%
1.9%
6.2%
12.7% 26.0% -1.0% 5.2% -11.9% 10.1% -7.1% -13.2% -21.5% 4.8% -18.5%
4.9% 9.2% 11.8% 12.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 5.1 % 5.9% 10.1%
71.2%
11.5%
13.9% 87.8% 28.3% 4.2% -39.0% -13.3% 15.4% -18.7%
7.7% 13.3% 12.3% 12.8% 10.5% 12.3% 13.7% 11.3%
72.7% -7.5% 4.1% -18.0% 17.1% 11.4% -17.5%
9.0% 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.6% 7.7% 5.7% 7.0%
-13.3% -35.9% 0.0% 12.0% 37.5% -26.0% 22.8%
6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 5.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8%
-1.5% -22.4% 5.8% -43.6 % 3.2% 15.6% -51.4%
10.7% 10.5% 13.7% 15.5% 16.1% 17.7% 16.7% 16.0%
-1.9% 30.5% 13.1% 3.9% 9.9% -5.6% -4.2%
1.6% 16.1% -29.2% 15.7%
6.9% 6.4% 7.1% 7.2%
-38.9% -7.2% 10.9% 1.4%
3.9% 4.2% 1.6% 5.4%
-44.3% 7.7% -61.9% 237.5%
0.9% 0.2% 3.3% 1.2%
-50.0% -77.8% 1550.0% -63.6%
13.4% 10.9% 9.9% 7.4%
-16.3% -18.7% -9.2% -25.3%
5.1%
-29.2%
7.9%
46.3%
2.2%
83.3%
8.2%
10.8%
5.4%
5.9%
9.3%
17.7%
2.7%
22.7%
9.7%
18.3%
3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% 8.0% 2.8%
73.0% -9.4% -55.2% -73.1 % 514.3% 83.7% -7.6% -23.3% -23.2% -32.6% -79.3% 1233.3% -65.0%
1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1 % 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0%
6.7% -100.0%
2.8%
481.3% -11.8% 62.2% -69.2 % 26.8% -50.0% -15.4% -100.0%
0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0%
Historical Vacancy (%)
~
~
-
2012
-14.3%
0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0%
-66.4% -100 .0%
------=-~
5.3%
12.2%
2.5%
7.2%
2.1%
7.1%
7.7%
0.0%
0.0%
-
- North County - Cod,bod Oceanside
Historical Vacancy (%)
2016
-Son Macros - Encinitas
~-_,,,...-,
,---- --- ..
' '
5.9%
11.3%
13.7%
12.3%
4.3%
72.0%
6.5%
-9.7%
2.6%
23.8%
8.3%
16.9%
6.3%
-18.2%
2.4%
0.0%
' - -- - -' ~
~-------------- - -.... - -,..
- :- ._,,_ ·- ~~~ ~ ~~ ~;__ .;__ :;_ ~ ~ ~ = ~?:5~~ =-:~-~-~~-~------:~-, 2012
6.2%
5.1%
11.5%
-16.1%
5.4%
25.6%
9.3%
43.1%
2.7%
3.8%
9.7%
16.9%
2.8%
-55.6%
2.8%
16.7%
0.0%
- - v;tloge - - Old Carlsbad
2016
South Beach - - Industrial Corridor
21 091 .00 Office Trends - Class C: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 80 ..
--------
5.4%
-12.9%
9.2%
-20.0%
5.1%
-5.6%
7.9%
-15. 1%
4.6%
70.4%
I
9.1%
-6.2%
2.3%
-17.9%
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
2020
Vista
,__ .,_ ...
2020
5.8% 7.1%
0.0% -9.3%
8.0% 7.4%
13.2% -1.3%
6.2% 8.6%
-4.8% -15 .9%
5.7% 5.8%
19.0% 13.2%
1.9% 2.2%
24.6% -13.3%
9.2% 12.6%
-6.3% -8.9%
3.7% 4.4%
-12.9% 1.5%
2.5% 2.7%
-26.8%
11.6% 16.6%
-100.0%
-~ .... ~
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
0 ~
~
....
§
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Creative
Market Factor !S~
Annual I Quarterly I Averages
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20U 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 I 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 ~: ~~ ~
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s)
Net Deliveries
Net Absorption
Total Vacancy Rote
Vocont Sf
Gross Rent o;red ($/SF)
% Change
¥Miii.,(
Inventory Sf (RBA, OOOs)
Net Deliveries
Net Absorption
T otol Vacancy Rote
Vacant SF
Gross Rent o;red ($/SF)
% Change
Sovlh8-ach
Inventory Sf (RBA, OOOs)
Net Deliveries
Net Absorption
Total Vacancy Rate
Vacant SF
Gross Rent o;red (S/SF)
%Change
.....,- a,""'
Inventory SF (RBA, OOOsf 9
Net Deliveries 0
Net Absorption 0
Total Vacancy Rate 0.0%
Vocont SF 0
Gross Rent o;red ($/SF)
% Change
100
-.:- 80
0 ., - 60 ;;
of
e 40
0 , er 20 v>
0 2008 2009
5 4
3 -c- 2 0
f
!!!. 1 ;;
• 0
~ u.
! -1
0 -2 ,
"
er -3 ~ v>
Ill -4
~ -5
2, 2008 2009
~
....
""
21091.00 Office Trends. Creative: Performance {Sub)
9 9
0 0
0 -4
0.0% 43.7%
0 4
$41.97
2010
South Beach
2010
South Beach
9 9
0 0
0 -1
43.7% 59.7%
4 5
$41.97
0.0%
2011 2012
2011 2012
9 9 9
0 0 0
4 0 0
16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
1 1 1
-- -- --
Net Deliveries
2013 2014
■ Industrial Corridor
2013 2014
■ Industrial Corridor
9 9 9 9 9 9 j
0 0 0 0 0 0 I
1 0 0 -4 3 1 I
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4 % 14.6% 0.0% :
0 0 0 4 1 0 I
$29.37 I --- ,
-- -- !
2015 2016 2017 2018
■ Olde Corlsbod
2015 2016 2017 2018
■ Olde Corlsbod
Poge8\ of 4
9 0.0%
0 $29.37
9 0
0 0.0%
0 $29.37
0.0%
2019
■ Village
2019
■ V.ll oge
9 0
0 0.0%
0 2020
2020
9 j 9 9
0 1 0 0
0 I 0 0
0.0% : 11.6% 16.6%
0 I 1 1
I $29.37 $29.37 ••• 1
2021
2021
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
EXHIBITV-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Crea tive
Morbt Factor /SF)
Annuol Quor1•1iy A.,..rogu
2008 2009 2010 201 1 2012 2013 201' 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 j 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 202 1 a• 202 2 Q I j 5-Yr 10-Yr tMtfkPfltt,
hwenlory Sf (RSA., OOOs)
Net [)olr,eries
,02 ,02 '10 '10 '13 '1 3 '13 '13 '17 '17 '17 '19 '19 '19 ! '19 '19 '19 '19 1 '18 '16 Net Ab.orplion
Total Voconq Rote
1/ocont Sf
Gron Rttnt Direct ($/SF}
" ChOl'lflll
lnvet1tory SF (RBA. OOO•t
Ne! Deliveries
Ne!Ab.orplion
T Oletl VOCOl'IC)' Rote
Vocont Sf
OroH Renl Dir.ct IS/Sfl
% Change
hwentory Sf (RIM. 000..1
Net o.i..,..,iff
N•~ion
T otc,1 Yoconq Rot.
Vocon t Sf
Gross Rani Oir9d ($/SF)
% Chono-
s.,Morm,
lnveolory Sf (RBA. OOOa!
N .. Del,.,.eries
N• ,.t,J»«p,ion
Tdol Voconq Rote
Vocoril Sf
OroH Rent Direct 1S/SFI
"Cho~
~
Inventory SF IRBA. OO<n)
Net OeHvetiM
Net Absorption
TotalVoconcy Rote
Vocont Sf
Gron Rtnt Dired !S/Sf)
"Cho""9
-
lnv-,,tory Sf jRBA, OOOs)
N.io.t...- ..-Ntt:
NetAbsorplion
TOlol Voconq Rote
VocontSf
Gro11 Rent Dired (S/Sf}
"Cho~
2008
163
0 .,
14.~
23 528.17
-5.2'!1
10 0
0 IS 5"
3 $21.32
0 .3
60.0"
3 $2 1.00
17 0
0""
0 2009
163
0 -23
28. 1%
..
$2 1."7
-23.K
18 0
10 6%
2 $2 1.32
o.°"
3 o.""
0 $23.52
12.09ft
17 0
0 o""
0 163
0 ,.
19""
31 $19.20
-106"
18 0
-6
41 7%
8 $18 92
-11~
6 '" 0
$23.36
-C.711
2010
17 0
0 o.""
0 Vit10
163
0 -6
22.-4"
37 $21.50
"""
18 0
.
2 1 5%
' $17.40
-8.0%
0 0.°"
0 $18.00
-22.911
17 0
0 o""
0 2011
163
0 -•8
51.6"
8<
18 0
-5
46.6"
• $17.16
'"" 0
$13 .36
29.8'1
17 o.""
0 163
17 41.0'4
67 $21.3 7
""·""
18 IS. I%
3 $18. 32
6. 8'1
0 0
0.°"
0 $20.44
-12.59'
17 o.""
0 2012
Enc,nilo,
163
0 32
21.6"
35 $23.38
4.5"
18 0.°"
0 $18 32
0 . .,,.
8 0
0 0 .°"
0 17
o.""
0 2013
163
12 l-4. l"
23 $25.48
9 . .,,.
18 0
.2
9.9"
2 $19.52
6.69'
0 0.°"
0 17
0 0
0""
0 163
-25
29,3"
48 S26.69
'·"'
18 0
0 11 .2"
2 $18.30
-6.~
12 ' 1
17,9"
2 $27.00
17 0
0 o.""
0 201 4
Son Moc, ot
163
0 -38
52.3%
85 $27.26
2.19'
18 0
-2
20.l"
' $20 .73
13 3'I
2 o.""
0 $27.00
o""
17 0
0 o.""
0 $11 88
2015
163
0 26
36.6%
60 $28.05
2.9"
18 0
' o.""
0 $22.52
8.69'
12 0
0 o""
0 17
0 -3
18.4"
3 $ 18.96
59.69'
163
0 18.9"
31 $28.22
0,6"
18 0
-2
10 .6%
2 12
0 0
0""
0 17
0 3
1.4"
0 2016
163
0 9
13.6%
22 127.26
··'-'"
18 0
-1
16 7%
3 $35 23
12 0
0 3""
0 $48.92
17 0
0 o.""
0 2017
163 I
0 I
13 :
5.6% I
9 l
$28.07 I
"3,°" :
163
12.49'
20 $29.35
163
8 7.7t.
13 $29.0S
·'·°"
163
0 3
S.6,.
9 S28.07
-3.49'
163
0 0
S.6%
9 S29.01
3""
163
0 25,A"'
, 1
S27.77
'·"" 1--.... --.,.,.---,----J...--18 I 18 18 18 18 18
0 : 0 0 0
l I ·1 0 0
108% : 6. A" 6 ,4" 10.844 10.8'6. 11.6%
2 I 1
$.41.97 I $35.69 $37 .17
19.19' : 4 '"
I
I
••• I
I ··· 1
....
... :
··· I
···: - 1
I I
12 :
0 I
-2 :
22.3". 1
3 I
$49.69 :
1.69' I
I
I
,,:
0 1
-2: 9.~ ,
2 l
··· I
-· I
!
12 20.9%
2 $A8.92
17 10.1"
2 12
0 2
2.8%
0 S28 .52
-'1.~
17 0
2 o""
0 2018 2019
■ Corl..bod
12 0
-2
22 .3%
3 $A9.69
74.2'1.
17 0
·2
9.7%
2 $ A1.97
o""
$30. 11
18. 19'
12 : 12
0 I 0
-2 I
36 8" : S 1%
< I 1
$4 9.69 : $41.87
0.09' I 13.09'
I
I
11 I 11
O I O
0: 0
9.~ I 5.9"
2 :
••• 1 s1s.42
-· I
!
2020 2021
163
0 3
28 5%
46 $25.92
2.7"
18 0
0 3
$23.56
9.2'1
10 ""
$32.74
I0.7'1i
17 0
0 3.""
$15 .42
~------------------------_ ,....,o.1ti-..ne. _________________________________ ~ 2008 2009
So..-.:. , CoStor
21091 00 Office Tritnds . Cr.atil,e : Perfonnon<:• (City) Oct.17.2022
2010 2011
Vista
2012 2013 2014
Encir11t0l • Son Morc0-1
"
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
• Oceanside ■ Carlsbad
THE CONCORD GROUP
Item •2 P•t • 101 of 173
DRAFT
0 fl
;:;
N
~
~
3 ~
I
~ a
~
-., ..
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annua l
Market Factor ~ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201 6 2017 2018 2019 North County
2020 202 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/Sf) $28.9 S26.3 $22.2 $25. l $23.l $25.3 $26.6 $29.8 $32.7 $27.3 $31.5 $34.2 $36. 4 $43.2 Y/Y% Change -9.1% -15.7% 13.5% -8.1% 9.6% 4.9% 12.1% 9.9% -16.6% 15.6% 8.3% 6.6% 18.5% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) S28.2 $21.5 Sl9.2 $2 1.5 $22.4 $22.4 $23. 4 S25.5 $26.7 $27.3 $28.l $28.2 $27.3 $28.l Y/Y% Change -23.8% -10.6% 12.0% 4.3% -0.3% 4.5% 9.0% 4.7% 2. 1% 2.9% 0.6% -3.4% 3.0% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) S21.3 $21.3 $18 .9 $17 .4 $17.2 $18.3 $18.3 $19.5 $18.3 $20.7 $22.5 Y/Y%Chonge 0.0% -11.3% -8.0% -1.4% 6.8% 0.0% 6.6% -6.2% 13.3% 8.6% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/Sf)
Y/Y%Chonge
f,JCioil<o
Gross Rent Direct (S/Sf)
Y/Y %Chonge
Village
Gross Rent Direct (S/SF)
Y/Y% Change
ilf/i/iiEi"""-==== -Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y% Change
South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y% Change
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF)
Y/Y% Change
$2 1.0 $23.5
12.0%
$23. 4 $18.0 $23.4 S20. 4 $27.0 $27.0
-0.7% -22. 9% 29.8% -1 2.5% 0.0%
$11. 9 $ 19.0
59.6%
$42 .0 $42 .0
0.0%
$50 Historical Gross Direct Rent (S/ SF)
$45
~ $40
S $35
~ $30
~ $25
i5 $20
t $15
"' 2008 ~
- North County
2012
- Carlsbad Oceanside
1016
- Son Marcos
$50 Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
$45
~ $40
>-
~ $35
~ $30
-~ $25
C
c $20
" ':; $ 15
s 2008
:,ource: L.Ostor
I
I
,-,-----\
I - - - \
I \
-t- -- ~
I \
_ - Village
2012
- - Olde Carlsbad
2016
South Beach
$35.2 $42.0
19.1%
... i
I
$48.9 I $49.7 I
1.6% I
I
I ..• I
..• I
$29.4
21091.00 Office Trends . Creative: Rents Page 3 of 4
83 C reative
Quarterl.r
2021 Q2 2021 Q3 202 1 Q4 2022 Ql --- --- --- ---
$42.2 $42.5 $43.2 $48.0
0.6% 1.6% 11.2%
$29.4 S29 . l $28. l S29.0
· 1.0% -3.4% 3.3%
$35.7 $37.2 $42.0 $42.0
4.1% 12.9% 0.0%
$48.9 $28.5 $49.7
-41.7% 74.2%
S29. 4 S29.4
0.0%
__.......,__
Encinitas
I
I $49.7 I
o.0% I
I
I
I
- - - I
t
2020
Vista
I
1,
I
Annual Averag e
5-Yr 10-Yr
$34.5 $31.0
5.7% 11.4%
$27.8 $25.9
1.0% 5.5%
$30.l S23.6
18.1% 19.3%
$41.9 $32.7
13.0% 22.5%
$1 5.4 $15.4
$29.4 S29. 4
' ' '
~
2020
- - Industrial Corridor
THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
~ .... _...,
N
s
N
Market Factor
North Covnly
Vacancy
Y!Y%Chan ge
Carlsbad
Vaca ncy
Y/Y% Change
~ -
Vaca ncy
Y/Y% Change
Son Marcos
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Encinilt# -----1
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
M,i.o
Vacancy
Y/Y% Change
Vacancy
Y/Y % Chang e
Sovlh Beach
Vacancy
Y/Y % Chang e
,i/iiiino/ Com'c
Vacancy
Y/Y % Change
iUif
l
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annua l
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 I
11.0% 15.9% 17.8% 14.6% 26.6% 23.2% 16.9% 11.5% 19.1% 24.7% 20.0% 15.0% 13.2% 1.3% I
44.5% 11.9% -18.0% 82.2% -12.8% -27.2% -32.0% 66.1% 29.3% -19.0% -25.0% -12.0% -44.7% !
14.3% 28.1% 19.0% 22.4% 51.6% 41 .0% 21.6% 14.1% 29.3% 52.3% 36.6% 18.9% 13.6% 5.6% i
96.5% -32.4% 17.9% 130.4% -20. 5% -47.3% -34.7% 107.8% 78.5% -30. 0% -48.4% -28.0% -58.8% I
15.5% 10.6% 41.7% 21.5% 46.6% 15.1% 0.0% 9.9% 11.2% 20.1% 0.0% 10.6% 16.7% 10.8% i -31.6% 293.4% -48.4% 116.7% -67 .6% - 100.0% 13.1% 79.5% -100.0% 57.5% -35.3% I · -- t I
t
60.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 22.3% I -100 .0% - 100.0% -100.0% -100.0% 643.3% I
I
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 1.4% 0.0% 9.7% I -92.4% - 100.0% ... I
0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0%
0.0% 36. 6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% -66.4% -100.0%
Historical Vacancy (%)
Creative
Quarler l~ Annual Averaae
2021 Q2 202 1 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q l ~ ~
11.6% 6.6% 7.3% 7.2% 16.0% 17.8%
-43.1% 10.6% -1.4% -17.5% -12 .9%
12.4% 7.7% 5.6% 5.6% 25.4% 28.5%
-37.9% -27.3% 0.0% -28.2% -24.2%
6.4% 6.4% 10.8% 10.8% 11.6% 14.1%
0.0% 68.8% 0.0% -0.7% -12.9%
20.9% 2.8% 22.3% 36.8% 5.1% 4.7%
-86.6% 696.4% 65.0% 4.5%
10.1% 0.0% 9.7% 9.7% 5.9% 3.0%
-100.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6%
- 100.0%
£
ii!
~
1 --::z-=- -=-. / ----.::; ............... -
--:---=~-:---~ -~ -- I
~ ~ ---:--::.~ -> ~ ~
C
0 V
~
l
£
ii!
~ ~ ... C
.. 8 .... .... ~ 0
5!, .... ...,
""
l
2008
~g:~~ r
2008
~-
\.. .........___,
- North County
7 ,,
✓,------
_ - Village
21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Vacancy
- Corlsbod
·- •- - - --,..
2012
" '
2012
' ' ~
'_,._
Oceanside
Historical Vacancy (%)
--- ----- -- ----- -----....
- Old Carlsbad