CA Review: GH
Meeting Date: Jan. 10, 2023
To: Mayor and City Council
From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager
Staff Contact: David Graham, Chief Innovation Officer
[email protected], 442-339-5992
Matt Sanford, Economic Development Manager
[email protected], 442-339-5987
Subject: Economic Development Strategic Plan
District: All
Recommended Action
Staff recommends the following actions:
1. Receive the report
2. Adopt a resolution approving the proposed Economic Development Strategic Plan
3. Direct staff to evaluate, revise and update the draft strategic actions associated with the plan and make any necessary budgetary recommendations during the annual budget process beginning with fiscal year 2023-24
Executive Summary
On Oct. 11, 2022, the City Council approved a five-year Strategic Plan that included the goal of economic vitality with an objective of creating a strategic approach for a vibrant economy.
Adoption of the Economic Development Strategic Plan will fulfill that objective and provide a long-term approach to economic vitality.
The plan considers current economic uncertainty and provides strategies that can adapt to changing factors while keeping the city’s economic development efforts focused. The strategic plan and the associated action items were developed in conjunction with the community and Carlsbad business organizations, with guidance from the Economic Development Subcommittee of the City Council.
Approval of this item will set in place the long-term economic strategy for the city. The proposed resolution attached as Exhibit 1 will also direct staff to work on any necessary recommendations for the FY 2023-24 annual budget.
Explanation & Analysis
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated impacts on Carlsbad businesses were met with swift action from the city. The City Council formed an Ad Hoc Economic Development Subcommittee Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 1 of 142
and committed $5 million to support local businesses. The city launched an Economic Recovery and Revitalization Initiative that included programs such as a small business loan program, eased permitting requirements for the operation of businesses outdoors and in the public right- of-way, and provided matching funds for a shop local gift card program. In May of 2021, city staff worked with Cities GPS to create the COVID-19 Inclusive Recovery Assessment and Implications report, which included recommendations for the city as it transitioned from the economic response phase of the pandemic to the recovery phase. The city used $100,000 of funding that had been committed to the initiative to fund the development of a long-term economic development strategic plan.
RSG Group was selected to work with staff on creating the Economic Development Strategic Plan (Attachment A to Exhibit 1) to help guide economic development efforts in the near and long-term. RSG Group has a 40-year history of working with cities on community development, economic development and redevelopment.
The plan and its strategies
The Economic Development Strategic Plan incorporates:
• Work done by Cities GPS for the inclusive recovery assessment and implications report • The 2022 Carlsbad Business Report
• An evaluation of current economic development efforts and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic impacts
• Public input from businesses, workers, and residents
• Suggestions of best practices that may be applicable to Carlsbad.
RSG Group staff leveraged their expertise as economic development consultants, as well as the analysis of The Concord Group, which conducted a market study for Carlsbad (Exhibit 2).
The proposed strategic plan is broken into two parts. The first part is the strategy itself, which is meant to last three to five years with these overarching economic development goals:
1. Support small businesses, startups and entrepreneurs
2. Develop workforce and attract talent
3. Grow and support key industries
4. Encourage placemaking and engagement
Actions to implement plan
The second part of the plan is he Economic Development Strategic Actions (Exhibit 3). These are numerous tactics that can be pursued by the city to achieve the four goals set forth in the strategy. These action items were developed during the engagement process and with the recommendations of the Economic Development Subcommittee.
Staff are now seeking input on the action items from the full City Council and, based on its input, will develop and refine information such as prioritization, cost, estimated timeline, departments engaged and key performance indicators to measure success. These proposed actions are detailed in Exhibit 3. Based on City Council’s input on this item, staff plan to present any related budgetary recommendations to the City Council during the annual budget process, beginning with the budget for fiscal year 2023-24.
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 2 of 142
The action plan is meant to be revisited on an annual basis and updated to correspond with changing market conditions, economic needs, budgets and future challenges. As conditions change, certain actions may be elevated in priority, the timeline may be updated and performance indicators may be adjusted to respond to future needs more accurately.
On Oct. 17, 2022. the Economic Development Subcommittee unanimously recommended that the Economic Development Strategic Plan be taken to the full City Council for adoption. The actions before the Council today are the adoption of the plan and directing staff to work on the associated actions and provide any budgetary requests during the annual budget process. The list of action items will be reviewed, revised, and updated as necessary annually to ensure the goals adopted in the plan are achieved and that it is adapted to meet changing economic conditions.
Community Engagement
The proposed Economic Development Strategic Plan was created with input from numerous stakeholders, including businesses, business organizations, residents, workers, the City Council’s Economic Development Subcommittee and internal staff from numerous departments. The Economic Development Subcommittee received regular updates and provided input throughout the plan’s development.
Through late February and early March of 2021, staff worked with RSG Group to gather the input from several focus groups. These included one for residents and workers that met on Feb. 15, 2022, and two business focus groups that met on March 2. Staff promoted the focus groups using the city’s social media channels, direct outreach and invitations to board members and committees from Carlsbad’s business organizations, as well as a Joint Communication with the Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce and Carlsbad Village Association. Staff also maintained ongoing engagement with businesses, workers and residents throughout the process of drafting the Economic Development Strategic Plan.
On Mar. 21, 2022, staff launched a digital “idea wall” to solicit feedback and ideas from businesses, workers, and residents. This resource was available for two months and generated several dozen comments from the community. On May 24 and 26, 2022, staff hosted two community forums, one using Zoom to enable remote participation, and one in person. These sessions allowed stakeholders to respond to strategies proposed in the plan while it was being drafted.
After the two hearings at the end of May, RSG worked with staff to develop an outline and began drafting the strategic plan based on their research and analysis and input from businesses, residents, and stakeholders. On Jul. 6, 2022, an initial draft was shared with city department leaders to ensure alignment with ongoing operations and strategies, where possible.
Fiscal Analysis
Additional resources will be necessary to fully implement the Economic Development Strategic Plan. If adopted, staff will return to the City Council with an updated version of the Economic Development Strategic Actions (Exhibit 3) that will include estimated costs over the life of the strategic plan and recommend any necessary budgetary considerations during the annual budget process, starting with fiscal year 2023-24.
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 3 of 142
Options
The City Council may adopt the Economic Development Strategic Plan. If this option is chosen, it would provide an overarching focus for the city’s economic development efforts for the near term and long-term.
The City Council may choose to not adopt the Economic Development Strategic Plan. If this option is chosen, staff would continue economic development activities in response to specific and overarching challenges to the economy and business community. However, economic development efforts may be more reactionary instead of proactive and forward-looking.
Next Steps
Should the City Council adopt the Economic Development Strategic Plan, staff would begin executing actions that are a high priority but do not require additional funding. Staff would evaluate, revise and update the draft strategic actions associated with the plan and make any necessary budgetary recommendations during the annual budget process beginning with Fiscal Year 2023-24.
Environmental Eval
uation
This action does not constitute a project within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment.
Exhibits
1. City Council resolution
2. Carlsbad Market Study
3. Economic Development Strategic Actions
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 4 of 142
RESOLUTION NO. 2023-010
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF CARLSBAD,
CALIFORNIA, ADOPTING THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC PLAN WHEREAS, on April 7, 2020, the City Council adopted Resolution No. 2020-058 authorizing the formation of the Ad Hoc City Council Economic Revitalization Subcommittee to provide direction on response, recovery, and revitalization programs during the COVID-19 pandemic; and WHEREAS, the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California determined that formation of a standing Economic Development Subcommittee was needed to receive information and advise the City Council on economic recovery and development matters; and WHEREAS, on May 11, 2021, the City Council passed a motion to form a standing Economic Development Subcommittee to replace the Ad Hoc City Council Economic Revitalization Subcommittee; and
WHEREAS, despite emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, economic uncertainty continued to impact Carlsbad's economy and businesses; and
WHEREAS, the Economic Development Subcommittee oversees and advises on efforts to support Carlsbad businesses and analyze economic conditions to ensure the Carlsbad's economy remains vibrant; and
WHEREAS, on October 11, 2022, the City Council adopted a citywide strategic plan that includes Economic Vitality as a council goal; and
WHEREAS, the Economic Development Subcommittee recommended the formation of an Economic Development Strategic Plan to guide city economic development efforts for the next three to five years; and
WHEREAS, the Economic Development Strategic Plan has a complementary set of Economic Development Strategic Actions that will be updated and provided to the City Council on an Annual Basis; and
WHEREAS, the City of Carlsbad has not previously had an Economic Development Strategic Plan.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the City Council of the City of Carlsbad, California, as follows:
1. That the above recitations are true and correct.
Exhibit 1
Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 5 of 142
2. That the Economic Development Strategic Plan as shown in Attachment A is hereby approved and adopted.
3. That the City Council directs staff to evaluate, revise, and update the strategic actions associated with the plan on an annual basis and make any fiscal recommendations during the annual budget process.
PASSED, APPROVED AND ADOPTED at a Regular Meeting of the City Council of the City of Carlsbad on the 10th day of January, 2023, by the following vote, to wit:
AYES:
NAYS:
ABSTAIN:
ABSENT:
Blackburn, Bhat-Patel, Acosta, Burkholder.
None.
None.
None.
l.-,_, SHERRY FR� Clerk
l' (SEAL)
Jan. 10, 2023 Item #7 Page 6 of 142
Econ
omic Revitalization and Development Strategy for the City of Carlsbad
Repo
rt Prepared for
The City of Carlsbad
Marc h 23rd, 2022
DRAFT
Exhibit 2
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 7 of 142
RSG EDSP February 2022
C
arlsbad, CA 21690.00
I. M ARKET OVERVIEW
1. Regional Location and Summary Findings
2. Emp loyme nt
A. O veral
l
B
. Industry
Composit
ion
C. Shift Share/Quoti
ent (MSA
comparison also)
D. Empl
oyment Nodes (break
between a few use
s, medical,
industrial)
E. Commuting Patterns (detailed on
distance/direction
– north, south
etc)
F. Migration Patterns
G. Expo Line (dev p
lans, maps)
3. Demographic Summary
4. C
ity Demos – GD
P growth, recent
developments, large
future projects, largest
employers
A. Tourism
B. Industry Composit
ion
C. Major Employers
II. O F
FICE O PPORTUNITY
1. O ffice M
arket Performance – (Overall,
Class A, M edical
,
Creative, Industrial)
2. Office Demand
3. Submarket Capture
Scenarios
III. RETAIL O PPORTUNITY
1. Retai
l Market Performance – (Overall,
Class A, Smaller
,
Larger, Regional)
2. Retail Demand
3. Retail Opportuni
ty Summary
2 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 8 of 142
THE CONCORD GROUP
Market Overview
3 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 9 of 142
EXHIBIT I-1
REGIONAL LOCATION AND SUBMARKET DEFINITION
NORTH COUNTY, CA
JANUARY 2022
Oceanside
North County
San Marcos
Encinitas
North San Diego
Solana Beach
Vista
Escondido
Poway
Carlsbad
The bluearea represents North County San Diego, the
geogra
phical limit as defined in the 2021 North County
Indicators (NCI) report.
The region includes ten cities defined by zip code: Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Escondido, Oceanside, Poway, San
Marcos, Solana Beach, Vista and a portion of northern San Diego City.
The region also includes several unincorporated areas that make up most of north counties more inland parts.
21690.00 Reg Loc: Regloc THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 10 of 142
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REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD MICRO-MARKETS
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
EXHIBIT I-1
Industrial Core - Kelly
Ranch
The city of Carlsbad has been broken down into 16
distinct neighborhoods defined loosely by the city of
Carlsbad's Neighborhood Boundaries map and broken up
by corresponding block groups.
For the purposes of this analysis, TCG has identified
following key neighborhoods within the city that may be a driver of strong potential economic growth: Olde
Carlsb
ad, The Village, South Beach, Aviara, Poinsettia,
and The
Industrial Core-Kelly Ranch
*Market name found on city of Carlsbad neighborhood
bounda
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Olde Carlsbad
Village
South Beach
Aviara
Poinsettia
21690.00 Reg Loc: Regloc THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 11 of 142
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REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD NEIGHBORHOOD LAND-USE BREAKOUT
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Land-Use Boundaries as
of December 2020
21690.00 Reg Loc: Regloc THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 12 of 142
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REGIONAL LOCATION CITY OF CARLSBAD SURROUNDING TRANSIT
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
EXHIBIT I-1
Oceanside Transit Center
Carlsbad Village Coastal
Stop
Yellow Dotted Lines:
Represent various bus
routes that run through
Carlsbad and the
surrounding cities
RedSolid Line: Represents
the Co
aster Commuter
Rail that passes through
Carlsbad with a station in
the Carlsbad Village and
a station in Oceanside
McClellan-Palomar
Airport
Carlsbad Blvd &
Poinsettia Ln Stop
21690.00 Reg Loc: Regloc THE CONCORD GROUP
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Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 13 of 142
Pac,flc
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REGIONAL LOCATION NEIGHBORHOOD RESIDENTIAL PROFILE
CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Village
• Residential densities established in 2007 permit homes to be built in a manner appropriate for small downtown.
• Residential and commercial uses may exit side-by-side or in an mixed use format • Buildings maybe attached or detached, and located near the front property line, or allow for an area for either small courtyards, outdoor dining or open space, and/or additional landscaping.
Olde Carlsbad
• Olde Carlsbad is the city's oldest neighborhood, dating to the late 1800s, Up on the hills, there are still some historic homes with views of the ocean. • Further west, streets have a mix of mid-20th-century bungalows, cottages, and tract homes. • Apartments and Condos along El Camino Real are close to the neighborhood's shopping and dining.
South Beach
• Nestled between Interstate 5 and the Pacific Ocean
• Residential is a mixture of several beachfront Master planned communities and mobile home park
• Homes along Poinsettia Ln are close to the neighborhood's shopping and dining.
Industrial Core
• Apartments and single family residences located at north corner of the area with spectacular Ocean views and easy access to work and attractions.
Poinsettia/ Aviara
• Set in the hills of Southern Carlsbad, overlooking the Pacific Ocean and Batiquitos Lagoon. • The community is mostly residential, Many properties have views of the ocean, Batiquitos Lagoon, and Aviara golf course.
• Most of the homes in Aviara are fairly new, having been built in the 90s. There has been limited new construction in Aviara (one exception is Vista Del Mar) but several newer subdivisions (The Bay Collection, Emerald Point) have been built nearby. • Aviara homes are primarily tract housing, with each community offering a number of floor plans, but a consistent look of style (primarily Spanish and Mediterranean) and feel.
Source: TCG
Village
Olde Carlsbad
Industrial Core
Poinsettia
AviaraSouth Beach
21554.00 Maps: Neighborhoods1 Page 1 of 2 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 14 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-1
REGIONAL LOCATION - KEY NEIGHBORHOOD RATIONALE
CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Village
• Historically popular location for retail development. Highest share of Accommodations and Food Services job sector within the city (2019). This Sector is the second highest employment sector within the city of Carlsbad.
• Historical Development map shows a high concentration of retail and office development in a relatively small pocket that makes up the village neighborhood across all observed decades predating the 1970's.
• Highest level of annual net absorption at 74k SF with average NNN asking rents of $42 and a five year average growth of 9.5%. All metrics indicate a currently strong retail market • From 2019-202 (COVID-19 recession) NNN increased 34% to $45, but have since had a correction in 2021 dropping 8%. • Future Demand in the Village is negative -455 SF annually, indicating a slight oversaturation in the market for new retail space. • Conclusion: The Village is a key retail/ tourism hub within the city with strong rents, plenty of retail/ eatery type employment and resiliency to COVID related economic forces.
Olde Carlsbad
• Similar to the Village, Olde Carlsbad has historically been an area of high levels of retail and office development across the last five-six decades. • The strongest local employment sector in Olde Carlsbad is the Retail sector followed by the Accommodations and Food Services sector. • Olde Carlsbad is one of a few neighborhoods within the city that saw positive net absorption of retail spaces over the last four quarters with NNN asking rents at a strong $39. • Future retail demand for Olde Carlsbad is a positive 12K annually, indicating a need for new retail space to accommodate for the growing population and HH base of that neighborhood.
South Beach
• Located on the Pacific coastline and bookended by the i-5 freeway, most of South Beach's historical retail and office development has occurred along the freeway. • One of the lowest NNN retail space asking rents at $24, indicative of the neighborhoods lack of class A retail space. • Future retail demand for South Beach is positive 5K annually • Office market vacancy rates are at a low of 2.6%, the lowest of all observed time-periods and have not seen any new deliveries since 2009.
Industrial Core
• The Industrial Core is the employment hub of the city and considering the high inflow of daily commuters, the employment hub of the major surrounding cities. • As of 2019 the industrial core employs the most individuals across the cities top employment sectors, including the top two sectors, Manufacturing and Professional Serv. • Industrial Core is the community with highest level of office inventory by SF at 3.4M SF as of 1Q22 • Unlike most neighborhoods surveyed, and having the highest level of current office inventory, the industrial core has experienced a positive five year average of annual positive net absorption (SF)
• Industrial Core is attaining an average of $31 in gross direct rents for office space over the last five years, relatively the middle of the pack of all observed neighborhoods.
Poinsettia/ Aviara
• Poinsettia neighborhood currently has the second highest level of office space at 1.1M SF • Outside of 2020-21, Poinsettia has experienced mostly positive annual net absorption. • Future annual retail demand is at a slight negative at -39 SF annually. • Poinsettia and Aviara are attaining the highest level of NNN retail asking rents $51 and $48 respectively with low vacancy rates of 0.8% (Aviara) and 2.3% (Poinsettia). The • overall average NNN asking rents in Carlsbad overall is $39, considerably lower.
Rancho La Costa
• Similar to Industrial Core, Rancho La Costa has a high concentration of employment in Carlsbad's top five key sectors with its highest share of employment in the retail and accommodation and food services sector.
• Rancho La Costa also has a high NNN retail asking rent compared to other observed neighborhoods at $48 • Future annual retail demand for Rancho La Costa is at 15k likely due to lower levels of inflow of spending from outside of the area compared to other neighborhoods such as the industrial core with a very high level of inflow spending resulting in a net negative need for additional retail space.
Source: TCG
Village
Olde Carlsbad
Industrial Core
Poinsettia
Aviara
South Beach
Rancho La Costa
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Aviara Poinsettia Rancho La Costa Subtotals Carlsbad HH 1,925 3,569 1,779 1,014 3,116 4,739 7,035 23,177 44,107 % of Carlsbad 4.4% 8.1% 4.0% 2.3% 7.1% 10.7% 15.9% 52.5% --- Total Jobs 4,957 4,709 5,117 26,095 2,420 12,956 4,993 61,247 78,135 % of Carlsbad 6.3% 6.0% 6.5% 33.4% 3.1% 16.6% 6.4% 78.4% --- Top Sectors (1) 3,425 2,087 2,805 13,078 1,720 4,335 4,095 23,115 37,920 % of Total Jobs 69.1% 44.3% 54.8% 50.1% 71.1% 33.5% 82.0% 37.7% --- % of Carlsbad 9.0% 5.5% 7.4% 34.5% 4.5% 11.4% 10.8% 61.0% --- (1) Top Sectors include: Retail Trade, Information, Prof./ Scientific Serv., Healthcare, Arts & Enter and Accomodation and Food Services. 21554.00 Maps: Neighborhoods (3) Page 2 of 2 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
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Item #7 Page 15 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-1
SITE ASSESSMENT
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Characteristics Evaluation
• Regional Location
+ Major Coastal City within San Diego's North County Region. + Surr
ounded by 5 of the major cities in the North County regi on whom all have strong portions of their employment 5.0 base traveling into Carlsbad for work including: Oceanside and Vista to the North, San Marcos and Escondido to the east, and Encinitas to the south.
• Accessibility and Surrounding Area
+ Two major freeways run through the city of Carlsbad, the inte rstate 5 freeway running along the coast north 5.0 and south bound, and the 78 highway that runs along the northern border of the city running east to west. + Access to the coaster commuter rail with a stop in the villag e neighborhood of Carlsbad offering residents alternative transportation access to surrounding sites and employment nodes. Rail connects Carlsbad to southern San Diego with final stops in the downtown core and as far north as Los Angeles. • Employment
• Employment Sectors
+ In the San Diego Metro, Professional Services Employment indu stries saw the least impact during COVID-recessionary period of 2020. Industry shows the least growth potential but a key sector of data processing 4.5 is showing strongest growth and shift share potential within the Professional Services industry. + Medical employment industries also experienced considerable declines in 2020. but with potential overall forecasted growth on par with the San Diego metro employment overall. Notable sectors of this indisutry include: Dental Offices ('19-'20 -12% ) , Nursing and Residential Care ('19-'20 -5%), and Medical and Diagnostic Labs ('19-'20 -6.5%) - Tourism and recreation based employment in the San Diego met ro were significantly impacted during 2020.
Forecasted growth is strong, but tourism industry overall will not recover all COVID related job losses in the next five years. • Overall Assessment
+ Opportunity to continue growth of key neighborhoods such as t he employment rich industrial core. Several companies look to either expand their footprint or relocate to the city of Carlsbad in the coming years in key4.8 industries such as biotech and communication, making the area a prime location for high earning jobs. + In the city of Carlsbad, forecasted population growth of househol ds earning over $100K annually over the next five years is strong and should further fuel the need for employers offering high earning jobs in moderate to higher-end office space.
Note: Scores based on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a competitive disadvantage and 5 being a competitive advantage to local area comparable 21690.00 Site Eval: Sum The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 16 of 142
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□
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EXHIBIT I-1
RETAIL SUMMARY
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
SUMMARY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Employment Characteristics
● Carlsbad's retail sector is anchored by several key retail nodes: Carlsbad Premium Outlets (South Beach Neighborhood), The Forum at Carlsbad (Rancho La Costa Neighborhood), Carlsbad Plaza South (Olde Carlsbad Neighborhood), The Shoppes at Carlsbad (Olde Carlsbad Neighborhood), and Village Faire (Village Neighborhood). ● Historically, Carlsbad has also enjoyed a reasonably strong tourism sector that feed's into retail activity for the city.
● The San Diego-Carlsbad MSA experienced significant declines in tourism and retail trade employment sectors due to COVID-recession forces.
● From 2010-2019 of the major cities observed in North County, Carlsbad (9.9% annualized growth) was only outpaced by San Marcos (11.2% annualized growth) in shift share and annual job growth in the Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Sector. ● At the San Diego-Carlsbad MSA level, Leisure and Hospitality and Accommodation and foods services sectors are poised for the strong snap-back from the COVID-recession period with all exceeding 7% annualized job growth and over 10% growth in shift share. over the next five year period.
Retail Characteristics
● Carlsbad has over 5M SF of retail space. It has the highest amount of retail space among all the major cities surveyed in North County.
● Though occupancy rates are slightly down over the past two years ('20 92.3% vs '21 91.5%) the five year average has hovered just over 95% and the ten year average at 96%. ● Of the neighborhoods surveyed within Carlsbad, the Industrial core and South remained relatively resilient to COVID-recession forces with occupancies that increased during the recession period to upwards of 98%. The Village was less resilient during the onset of COVID-recession restrictions (86.6%), but has since recovered to just over 94% with a five year historical average of 95%.
● As of 2021 NNN lease rates in Carlsbad ($37.61) greatly exceed the North County average ($25.39) and is highest among the surrounding major cities surveyed. ● The Industrial Core and Village are both achieving $42 NNN lease rates with Olde Carlsbad close behind with $39 NNN lese rates.
Demand
● Based on TCG's demand assumptions, Carlsbad is projected to capture just 12K SF of future demand annually, and according to current opportunity gaps has over -330K SF of unfulfilled retail space, due to high level of inflow spending form outside of the city. ● Considering that tourism accounts for a portion of retail spending and further taking into account the high level of employee inflow to Carlsbad from surrounding cities, there are several categories that are experiencing leakage, in particular with key retail categories such as eating and drinking establishments and clothing and accessories stores. ● These categories have some of the highest leakage in Carlsbad neighborhoods that are either historical more tourist oriented ( South Beach, Village ) or have a high concentration employment node (Industrial Core).
Retail Development Heat Map
as of February 2022
16%
13%
10%
15%
9%
7%
5%
2%
5%
2% 3% 1%
2021 San Diego MSA Employment
Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government
Retail Trade Manufacturing
Financial Activities Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Construction Wholesale Trade
Other Services (except Public Admin.) Information
Natural Resources & Mining
21690.00 Site Eval: Retail The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 17 of 142
• •
• •
• • • •
• • • •
•
EXHIBIT I-1
RETAIL SUMMARY
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
SUMMARY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Conclusion
● Despite COVID-recessionary forces, Carlsbad will continue to have a moderately strong retail and tourism employment base. As other office/ manufacturing employment nodes continue to develop coupled with a growing population and HH base ('21-'26 2.5% growth), the continued need for moderate to high-end retail space with various dining and shopping options. The inland regions that are more residential oriented may benefit most from new large scale retail spaces that are closer to home rather than traveling to more coastal areas that have well established large retail nodes. The employment rich industrial core will also benefit from more walkable retail spaces that offer various types of eateries and boutique shopping experiences. 80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Absorption and Deliveries (SF)
Carlsbad Annual Retail Vacancy/ Absorption/
Deliveries
Absorption Deliveries Occupancy
$39.90
$36.52
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3
Lease Rate ($/Sf/Yr)
Retail Annual Lease Rate (NNN)
21690.00 Site Eval: Retail The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 18 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-1
OFFICE SUMMARY
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
SUMMARY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Employment Characteristics
● Carlsbad's office use largely consists of medical, and financial/ professional services. ● Carlsbad holds a higher concentration of jobs than its surrounding four cities, which lends itself to a higher inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad who do not reside within Carlsbad. As of 2019 19% of all Carlsbad employment was concentrated in Finance/ Real Estate/ Prof. Services sector, positions that are traditionally performed in an office setting. The next closest being Encinitas at 13% of its employment base filling these roles. ● Carlsbad also holds a high concentration of individuals employed in the health care profession, with over 5,000 individuals employed in the sector accounting for 8% of total employment in Carlsbad. Of the four surrounding cities they are only second to Oceanside with 7,000 individuals employed in the sector, accounting for 15% of their total employment. ● Key employment sectors of note that have experienced relative resilience during COVID and are poised for future growth are: Data Processing ('16-'21 11.7% growth, 21-'26 4% forecasted growth) with a forecasted shift share of nearly 18% over the next five years. Several medical field office use saw significant declines during the initial COVID-recession period, but are since recovering with a few poised for growth in the next five year period. Outpatient care centers ('19-'20 3.5% growth, '21-'26 3.3% forecasted growth) saw growth during COVID-recession period, with strong forecasted shift share of nearly 8% over the next five year period. (Note growth metrics are at the San Diego-Carlsbad MSA Level) Office Characteristics (Class A)
● North County has over 11M SF of class A office space and Carlsbad has over 2M SF of class A office space. Year-to-date North County has had a total net absorption of 232K SF while Carlsbad has had 18K SF.
● COVID-Recession had a significant impact on net absorption for Carlsbad with a dip to -56K in 2020, whereas in 2018 net absorption reached 289K and 2019 168k, showing some sensitivity to economic downturn.
● Carlsbad is currently achieving $34.20 in direct rents while North County is achieving $44.11 ● The majority of the office space within Carlsbad is class B product at just over 5M SF space compared to the 2M SF of class A. COVID-Recession did have an impact on net absorption of class B product but did not decline to negative until 2021, showing slightly more resiliency during the recession, but there seems to be a shift in preference in office space towards class A product considering that net absorption for class A product increased to 18K SF in 2021 after its drop in 2020.
Demand
● Based on TCG's demand assumptions, Carlsbad is projected to capture nearly 124K SF of future demand of North County. Of the nine major cities that make up North County, Carlsbad is poised to capture the highest share of North County with San Marcos coming in close second at 102K SF.
● Despite having the highest potential capture of office space in North County, Carlsbad is showing one of the lower shares of potential pipeline throughout North County at only 50,000K SF compared to San Marcos planning the highest amount of pipeline at 1.4M SF.
Office Development Heat Map
as of February 2022
16%
13%
10%
15%
9%
7%
5%
2%
5%
2% 3% 1%
2021 San Diego MSA Employment
Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government
Retail Trade Manufacturing
Financial Activities Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Construction Wholesale Trade
Other Services (except Public Admin.) Information
Natural Resources & Mining
21690.00 Site Eval: Office The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 19 of 142
RBA
Und,er 10,000
e 10,000-22.000
• 22,000-40,000
• 40,000-70,000
. 70,000- 11 5,000
. 11 5,000- 180,000
. 180,000-450,000
- Ov .. , 450,000
■
■
■
■
■
■
■
•
■
■
■
■
■
■
__ ,.. __ _
EXHIBIT I-1
OFFICE SUMMARY
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
SUMMARY MARKET SNAPSHOT
Demand Cont.
● Of said demand, a subcategory of office space of note is the "flex" space uses. This subcategory is defined by two key industries: Scientific R&D and Warehousing, both of which show the highest levels of potential demand in office space in the county from 2021-22, but will taper off in the following seven years observed. Scientif R&D is of particular note in that the category includes life sciences office spaces, an office space in San Diego that is in high demand over the last several years.
Conclusion
● Overall the city of Carlsbad is a hub of employment for the major surrounding cities, its higher level of inflow of individuals who work in Carlsbad but do not reside in Carlsbad only further fuels potential demand for high end class A office space. Carlsbad has shown moderate/ steady growth in direct rents annually over the last 3 year period and relative resiliency in those asking rents through the COVID-recession period. Despite holding a considerably larger share of current class A office compared to the surrounding cities, there is still potential for further growth as demand for this particular use is higher than the surrounding cities in North County. As the economy continues to reopen, workers will flow back into offices. Employers will look to differentiate themselves such as procuring a state-of-the-art office space with all of the amenity and working spaces desired and that are becoming more common place in todays evolving office environment. 70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net Absorption and Deliveries (SF)
Carlsbad Annual Class A Office Vacancy/ Absorption/
Deliveries
Absorption Deliveries Occupancy
21690.00 Site Eval: Office The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 20 of 142
- -
C lass A Office Histor ical Gross Direct Rent ($/ SF)
$40
$35
3 1
$30
66 $2 5
20 17
3 1.82
--
20 18
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--
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... C arlsbad
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EXHIBT I-1
RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY - RESTAURANT, FOOD, BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE
CALRSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Full Service Restaurants Drinking Places (Alcoholic
Beverages)
Supermarkets and Other Grocery
Stores
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Special Food Services (Contractor/ Catere/ Mobile)
Resident Spending (000s)
Resident Spending Capacity vs. Actual Sales - Food, Beverage & Grocery Store Carlsbad Capacity
Carlsbad Actual Sales
Food & Beverage Store SpendingRestaurant & Drinking
Places Spending
21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - NGAFO1 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 21 of 142
I •
EXHIBT I-1
RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - RESIDENT SPENDING CAPACITY
CALRSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Note: GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other $0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Resident Spending (000s)
Resident Spending Capacity vs. Actual Sales
Carlsbad Capacity
Carlsbad Actual Sales
Non - GAFONon - GAFOGAFO
21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - Capacity1 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 22 of 142
■
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EXHIBT I-1
RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - CURRENT RESIDENT SPENDING GAP
CALRSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Note: GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other -$100,000
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
Resident Spending vs. Sales Gap (000s)
Resident Spending Gap
Carlsbad Spending Gap Non - GAFONon - GAFOGAFO
Negative spending gap indicates
inflow of spending from outside the
resident base (employees, visitors etc.)
and outflow of resident spending to
outside areas
21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - Gap The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 23 of 142
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EXHIBT I-1
RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT - ACTUAL TOTAL SALES - RESTAURANT, FOOD, BEVERAGE & GROCERY STORE
CALRSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
-$100,000
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
Full Service Restaurants Drinking Places (Alcoholic
Beverages)
Supermarkets and Other Grocery
Stores
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Special Food Services (Contractor/ Catere/ Mobile)
Resident Spending vs. Sales Gap (000s)
Resident Spending Gap - Food, Beverage & Grocery Store
Carlsbad Spending Gap
Negative spending gap indicates
inflow of spending from outside the
resident base (employees, visitors etc.)
and outflow of resident spending to
outside areas
Food & Beverage Store SpendingRestaurant & Drinking
Places Spending
21690.00 Retail Demand: Demand - gap NGAFO (2) The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 24 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-2A
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS - TOTAL
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
1999 THROUGH 2026
United States San Diego MSA
Growth Growth
000s Num. Num. Perc. Num. Num. Perc.
Annual
1999 129,226 3,090 2.4% 1,160 45.0 4.0%
2000 132,018 2,792 2.2% 1,200 39.9 3.4%
2001 132,080 62 0.0% 1,225 24.9 2.1%
2002 130,637 (1,443) (1.1%) 1,237 12.7 1.0%
2003 130,328 (309) (0.2%) 1,249 11.4 0.9%
2004 131,757 1,429 1.1% 1,270 21.1 1.7%
2005 134,022 2,265 1.7% 1,293 23.2 1.8%
2006 136,434 2,412 1.8% 1,314 20.6 1.6%
2007 137,978 1,543 1.1% 1,322 8.7 0.7%
2008 137,225 (753) (0.5%) 1,315 (7.5) (0.6%)
2009 131,289 (5,936) (4.3%) 1,249 (66.0) (5.0%)
2010 130,337 (952) (0.7%) 1,240 (8.7) (0.7%)
2011 131,922 1,585 1.2% 1,250 9.9 0.8%
2012 134,157 2,235 1.7% 1,283 32.7 2.6%
2013 136,356 2,199 1.6% 1,316 33.4 2.6%
2014 138,922 2,567 1.9% 1,345 28.7 2.2%
2015 141,804 2,882 2.1% 1,385 39.9 3.0%
2016 144,333 2,529 1.8% 1,422 37.5 2.7%
2017 146,595 2,262 1.6% 1,452 29.6 2.1%
2018 148,893 2,298 1.6% 1,482 30.3 2.1%
2019 150,900 2,007 1.3% 1,504 21.4 1.4%
2020 142,252 (8,648) (5.7%) 1,385 (118.8) (7.9%)
2021 146,147 3,894 2.7% 1,410 25.1 1.8%
Quarterly
1Q21 142,143 1,374
2Q21 145,443 3,301 2.3% 1,403 28.0 2.0%
3Q21 147,066 1,623 1.1% 1,409 7.0 0.5%
Forecast
2022 151,810 5,663 3.9% 1,473 63.0 4.5%
2023 154,353 2,544 1.7% 1,500 26.5 1.8%
2024 155,656 1,303 0.8% 1,519 19.2 1.3%
2025 156,224 568 0.4% 1,532 12.9 0.9%
2026 156,710 486 0.3% 1,540 8.1 0.5%
5-Yr Avg. 154,951 2,113 1.4% 1,513 25.9 1.8%
Historical Average
5-Yr 363 (0.1%) (2.5) (0.6%)
10-Yr 1,423 1.0% 16.0 1.0%
Note: All employment figures represent year end unless otherwise noted Source: Annual- Moody's (updated 01/25/2022); Quarterly - BLS -9%
-8%
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-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6% Job Growth (%)
San Diego MSA United States (line)
Total Employment (% Change)
Forecast
21421.00 Employment Trends: Jobs The Concord Group
19 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 25 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2B
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS - BY INDUSTRY
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
2006 THROUGH 2026
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Ann. Growth % MSA Employment Annual Employment (000s)
Forecast '21-'26 Shift Share
Employment Industry (000s)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026 '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 % # 2021 2026 Nom. % Government 218 222 225 224 230 229 228 230 232 236 242 246 248 249 237 235 241 244 248 250 252 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 14.7% 14.4% -0.3% -2.0% Retail Trade 148 148 142 132 131 133 137 141 144 147 147 149 148 146 134 139 142 143 142 141 140 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -1.1% 0.1% 0 8.7% 8.0% -0.7% -7.9% Manufacturing 104 103 103 97 96 97 98 100 102 107 108 109 112 116 114 114 115 114 112 111 109 1.8% -1.7% 0.2% 1.0% -0.9% -1 7.1% 6.3% -0.9% -12.4% Education & Health Services138 144 154 163 165 168 175 181 186 193 199 204 209 217 210 214 224 232 235 235 235 2.9% -3.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.9% 4 13.4% 13.5% 0.1% 0.6% Construction 93 87 76 61 55 55 57 61 64 70 76 80 84 84 82 86 91 92 92 92 91 3.2% -2.6% 5.3% 2.5% 1.1% 1 5.4% 5.2% -0.2% -3.3% Professional & Business Services218 222 221 203 203 205 211 219 223 229 235 239 249 256 248 254 259 256 255 256 258 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.9% 14.8% -1.1% -7.0% Leisure & Hospitality 155 160 163 153 153 154 160 167 176 182 190 196 200 202 145 153 176 191 205 217 224 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 9.6% 12.8% 3.3% 34.1% Financial Activities 84 80 75 70 67 67 70 71 70 71 73 75 76 77 74 73 75 75 75 74 75 0.9% -3.0% -1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% -6.1% Transport., Warehousing & Utilities29 29 29 27 27 26 27 27 27 28 30 32 33 34 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 2.3% -3.2% -1.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -6.0% Wholesale Trade 46 47 46 42 42 43 45 46 45 44 44 44 44 44 41 40 40 40 40 40 39 0.4% -7.0% -3.4% -2.0% -0.1% 0 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% -9.1% Other Services (exc. Public Admin.)48 48 48 47 46 48 49 49 52 53 54 55 56 56 45 48 53 55 57 59 59 1.9% -21.0% 6.9% -2.6% 4.4% 2 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 13.5% Information 32 31 31 28 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 24 24 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 -1.8% -6.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.8% 0 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -4.8% Natural Resources & Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.8% -13.5% 3.9% 1.3% 6.5% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Health care and social assistance117 122 130 136 139 141 146 152 156 163 169 175 180 187 183 188 197 204 206 206 207 3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 11.7% 11.8% 0.1% 0.8% Total Non-Farm (000) 1,314 1,322 1,315 1,249 1,240 1,250 1,283 1,316 1,345 1,385 1,422 1,452 1,482 1,504 1,385 1,410 1,473
1,500
1,519
1,532 1,540 1.9% -7.9% 1.8% -0.2%
1.8%
25.9 100% 100%
Y/Y Change (000) 20.6 8.7 -7.5 -66.0 -8.7 9.9 32.7 33.4 28.7 39.9 37.5 29.6 30.3 21.4 -118.8 25.1 63.0 26.5 19.2 12.9 8.1 % Change 1.6% 0.7% -0.6% -5.0% -0.7% 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% -7.9% 1.8% 4.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% Cumulative Gain/Loss: 1.7% 2.3% 9.9% 4.5% 9.2%
Note: All employment figures represent year end
Shift Share: Indicates an industry/ sectors employment growth and competitiveness in the San Diego MSA. It helps determine if a specific industry showed faster or slower growth/ decline in comparison with other industries/ sectors over a certain time period.
Source: Moody's (updated 01/25/2022)
Return to pre-recession
employment in 2014
(18%)
(16%)
(14%)
(12%)
(10%)
(8%)
(6%)
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12 %
14%
16%
18%
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Employees (000)
Employment Growth & Annual Employment Change
Total Non-Farm Employment Total Non-Farm Employment Y/Y Change Employment Change (%)
Forecast
16%
13%
10%
15%
9%
7%
5%
2%
5%
2% 3% 1%
2021 San Diego MSA Employment
Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government
Retail Trade Manufacturing
Financial Activities Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Construction Wholesale Trade
Other Services (except Public Admin.)Information
Natural Resources & Mining
Return to pre-COVID
21690.00 Employment Trends: Industry The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 26 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2B
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWNS
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
2009 THROUGH 2026
Overall Employment Industries Tourism Employment Industries Ann. Growth % MSA Employment Ann. Growth % MSA Employment '21-'26 Shift Share '21-'26 Shift Share
'09-'1919-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 % # 2021 2026 Nom. % '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 % # 2021 2026 Nom. % Government 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 14.7% 14.4% -0.3% -2.0% Retail Trade 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -1.1% 0.1% 0 22% 17% -4.9% -22.6% Retail Trade 1.0% -8.1% 3.9% -1.1% 0.1% 0 8.7% 8.0% -0.7% -7.9% Leisure & Hospitality 2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 24% 27% 3.0% 12.7% Manufacturing 1.8% -1.7% 0.2% 1.0% -0.9% -1 7.1% 6.3% -0.9% -12.4% Clothing and accessories stores0.9% -24.3% 16.9% -3.5% 0.4% 0 2% 2% -0.5% -21.6% Education & Health Services2.9% -3.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.9% 4 13.4% 13.5% 0.1% 0.6% Sporting goods stores -1.7% -1.8% 17.4% 1.3% -0.9% 0 1% 1% -0.3% -26.6% Construction 3.2% -2.6% 5.3% 2.5% 1.1% 1 5.4% 5.2% -0.2% -3.3% General merchandise stores -1.1% -7.9% 5.4% -1.1% -0.4% 0 4% 3% -1.0% -24.8% Professional & Business Services2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.9% 14.8% -1.1% -7.0% Miscellaneous store retailers 1.2% -18.8% 1.4% -2.6% 0.6% 0 1% 1% -0.2% -20.9% Leisure & Hospitality2.8% -28.0% 5.0% -4.3% 8.0% 14 9.6% 12.8% 3.3% 34.1% Water transportation 10.9% -36.2% -6.7% 64.3% -2.1% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -30.8% Financial Activities 0.9% -3.0% -1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% -6.1% Passenger Transportation 4.4% -37.5% -15% -12.5% -2.3% 0 0% 0% -0.1% -31.6% Transport., Warehousing & Utilities2.3% -3.2% -1.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -6.0% Scenic and sightseeing transportation1.5% -29.7% 28.6% -1.1% 1.9% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -15.7% Wholesale Trade 0.4% -7.0% -3.4% -2.0% -0.1% 0 2.5% 2.3% -0.2% -9.1% Food services and drinking places3.3% -24.2% 6.6% -3.0% 7.9% 10 17% 20% 2.1% 12.2% Other Services (exc. Public Admin.)1.9% -21.0% 6.9% -2.6% 4.4% 2 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 13.5% Accommodation and food services2.9% -26.5% 5.8% -3.7% 7.7% 12 21% 23% 2.4% 11.5% Information -1.8% -6.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.8% 0 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -4.8% Food and beverage stores 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0 5% 4% -1.1% -22.6% Natural Resources & Mining1.8% -13.5% 3.9% 1.3% 6.5% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Arts; entertainment; and recreation2.2% -36.4% -0.7% -7.9% 9.5% 2 3% 4% 0.6% 20.9% Health care and social assistance3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 11.7% 11.8% 0.1% 0.8% Total Employment Sector:
2.2%
-21.4%
5.1%
-3.0%
5.4%
39.0 100% 100%
Total Non-Farm 1.9% -7.9% 1.8% -0.2%
1.8%
25.9 100% 100%
From 2009 to 2019, in the San Diego MSA most employment sectors enjoyed stable growth with overall Total Non-Farm employment increasing 1.9%. However, with the onset of COVID-19 the tourism sector felt the highest negative impact with the medical sector showing most resilience, although still showing negative growth.
The professional services sector has relatively shown the least amount of variance in growth across the time periods surveyed, with data processing jobs within the sector showing the most promise for future growth. The sector is showing a relatively low potential for future growth, but that could be due to the industries natural tendency for minimal sway from each time period. -30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
% Change in Growth Over Four Time-Periods
San Diego MSA Major Employment Sectors
'09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '21-'26
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% Change in Growth Over Four Time-Periods
San Diego MSA Key Tourism Employment Sectors
'09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '21-'26
21421.00 Employment Trends: Industry Breakdown the concord group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 27 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2B
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS KEY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWNS
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
2009 THROUGH 2026
Medical Employment Industries Professional Services Employment Industries Ann. Growth % MSA Employment Ann. Growth % MSA Employment '21-'26 Shift Share '21-'26 Shift Share
'09-'1919-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 % # 2021 2026 Nom. % '09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '16-'21 % # 2021 2026 Nom. % Ambulatory health care services4.5% -3.6% 4.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2 16% 17% 0.3% 1.9% Government 1.0% -4.7% -0.9% -0.6% 1.4% 3 25% 26% 0.9% 3.7% Hospitals -0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0 5% 4% -0.3% -5.7% Real estate 1.3% -1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0 3% 3% 0.1% 2.9% Nursing and residential care facilities2.3% -5.0% -1.5% 0.0% -0.4% 0 5% 5% -0.5% -10.3% Finance and insurance 0.7% -1.3% -4.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0 5% 5% -0.1% -2.0% Social assistance 3.6% 0.5% 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 2 11% 12% 0.7% 6.9% Securities and Commodity's 1.2% -0.9% -2.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0 1% 1% 0.0% 1.3% Health care and social assistance3.2% -2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 4 37% 37% 0.2% 0.7% Professional; scientific; and technical services2.5% -1.8% 3.7% 2.7% -0.1% 0 16% 15% -0.6% -3.8% Offices of physicians3.0% -4.1% 2.0% -0.5% 1.2% 0 6% 6% -0.2% -3.1% Scientific Research and Services 2.0% 1.9% 10.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0 4% 4% -0.1% -2.3% Offices of dentists 2.3% -12.2% 15.9% 2.0% 2.7% 0 2% 2% 0.1% 4.2% Professional & Business Services 2.3% -3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 27% 27% -0.4% -1.6% Offices of other health practitioners5.0% -1.2% 11.1% 4.9% 3.2% 0 2% 2% 0.1% 7.0% Management of companies and enterprises4.1% -1.4% 2.4% 2.0% -0.1% 0 3% 2% -0.1% -3.6% Outpatient care centers7.3% 3.5% -0.2% 5.0% 3.3% 1 3% 3% 0.2% 7.7% Financial Activities 0.9% -3.0% -1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0 8% 8% 0.0% -0.6% Medical and diagnostic laboratories8.2% -6.5% 3.2% -1.7% 1.8% 0 1% 1% 0.0% 0.1% Administrative and support services1.5% -6.4% 0.7% -0.4% 1.2% 1 8% 9% 0.2% 2.8% Home health care services6.7% -2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 0 2% 2% 0.0% 0.7% Educational services 1.2% -9.6% -4.5% -2.6% 1.6% 0 3% 3% 0.1% 5.0% Other ambulatory health care services4.7% -5.8% 10.8% 2.3% 1.6% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -1.2% Monetary authorities-central bank4.9% 0.6% -1.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0 0% 0% 0.0% -1.0% Hospitals -0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0 5% 4% -0.3% -5.7% Credit intermediation and related activities-0.2% -1.1% -8.2% -2.5% -1.2% 0 2% 2% -0.2% -9.0% Nursing and residential care facilities2.3% -5.0% -1.5% 0.0% -0.4% 0 5% 5% -0.5% -10.3% Data processing; hosting and related services11.1% 2.6% 20.2% 11.7% 4.0% 0 0% 0% 0.1% 17.9% 100% 100% Rental and leasing services 1.3% -23.9% 3.7% -3.3% -0.2% 0 1% 0% 0.0% -3.9% Total Medical Sector: 3.2% -2.3% 2.6% 1.9%
1.8%
9.6 Total Professional Services Sector:1.7% -3.5% 1.0% 0.7%
0.6%
6.2 100% 100%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
% Change in Growth Over Four Time-Periods
San Diego MSA Key Medical Employment Sectors
'09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '21-'26
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% Change in Growth Over Four Time-Periods
San Diego MSA Key Professional Services Sector
'09-'19 19-'20 20-'21 '21-'26
21421.00 Employment Trends: Industry Breakdown the concord group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 28 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2C
EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY GROWTH
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2010 AND 2019
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Aviara Carlsbad North County 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift Jobs Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 10 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 2 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 18 0% 76 0% 3.3 17.4% 321 23% 34 1% 0.1 -22.1% 411 1% 176 0% 0.3 -9.0% 9,131 2% 8,752 2% 0.8 -0.5% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0% 0 0% 0.0 0.0% 14 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 0 0% 0 0% 0.0 0.0% 4 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 0 0% 0 0% 0.0 0.0% 22 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 65 0% 53 0% 0.7 -2.2% Utilities 5 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 14 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 103 3% 245 5% 1.8 10.1% 41 0% 24 0% 0.5 -5.8% 8 1% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 381 1% 389 0% 0.8 0.2% 1,885 1% 1,772 0% 0.8 -0.7% Construction 114 3% 147 3% 1.1 2.9% 113 2% 285 6% 3.0 10.8% 111 3% 289 6% 2.0 11.2% 461 2% 349 1% 0.6 -3.0% 75 5% 200 8% 1.6 11.5% 1,602 3% 2,857 4% 1.4 6.6% 20,082 5% 32,906 7% 1.4 5.6% Manufacturing 30 1% 26 1% 0.8 -1.6% 23 0% 6 0% 0.3 -13.9% 92 2% 75 1% 0.6 -2.2% 4,147 20% 4,121 16% 0.8 -0.1% 11 1% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 9,361 15% 11,459 15% 1.0 2.3% 43,247 11% 55,846 12% 1.1 2.9% Wholesale Trade 102 2% 36 1% 0.3 -10.9% 106 2% 23 0% 0.3 -15.6% 200 5% 316 6% 1.2 5.2% 1,558 8% 3,180 12% 1.6 8.3% 16 1% 32 1% 1.2 8.0% 4,545 7% 5,589 7% 1.0 2.3% 17,773 5% 19,250 4% 0.9 0.9% Retail Trade 232 5% 324 7% 1.2 3.8% 1,662 30% 865 18% 0.6 -7.0% 314 8% 424 8% 1.0 3.4% 2,252 11% 3,028 12% 1.1 3.3% 214 15% 177 7% 0.5 -2.1% 7,222 12% 8,576 11% 0.9 1.9% 39,524 11% 44,172 10% 0.9 1.2% Transportation and Warehousing 50 1% 52 1% 0.9 0.4% 21 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 56 1% 125 2% 1.7 9.3% 229 1% 328 1% 1.1 4.1% 19 1% 1 0% 0.0 -27.9% 612 1% 929 1% 1.2 4.7% 4,143 1% 6,439 1% 1.3 5.0% Information 11 0% 3 0% 0.2 -13.4% 169 3% 47 1% 0.3 -13.3% 54 1% 175 3% 2.5 14.0% 825 4% 427 2% 0.4 -7.1% 36 3% 62 3% 1.0 6.2% 1,681 3% 1,329 2% 0.6 -2.6% 8,869 2% 7,669 2% 0.7 -1.6% Finance and Insurance 184 4% 120 2% 0.6 -4.6% 91 2% 37 1% 0.5 -9.5% 181 5% 107 2% 0.5 -5.7% 757 4% 774 3% 0.8 0.2% 52 4% 66 3% 0.7 2.7% 2,145 3% 1,983 3% 0.7 -0.9% 12,472 3% 13,048 3% 0.9 0.5% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 149 3% 195 4% 1.1 3.0% 59 1% 53 1% 1.1 -1.2% 298 8% 237 5% 0.6 -2.5% 553 3% 443 2% 0.6 -2.4% 28 2% 32 1% 0.7 1.5% 1,803 3% 1,487 2% 0.7 -2.1% 7,805 2% 9,340 2% 1.0 2.0% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 268 6% 242 5% 0.8 -1.1% 215 4% 162 3% 0.9 -3.1% 340 9% 713 14% 1.6 8.6% 3,001 15% 3,871 15% 1.0 2.9% 122 9% 169 7% 0.8 3.7% 5,979 10% 9,387 12% 1.2 5.1% 33,562 9% 38,559 8% 0.9 1.6% Management of Companies and Enterprises 1 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 0 0% 0 0% 0.0 0.0% 27 1% 144 3% 4.1 20.4% 776 4% 1,172 4% 1.2 4.7% 0 0% 1 0% 0.0 0.0% 898 1% 2,287 3% 2.0 10.9% 3,513 1% 6,249 1% 1.5 6.6% Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 235 5% 160 3% 0.6 -4.2% 420 8% 105 2% 0.3 -14.3% 433 11% 460 9% 0.8 0.7% 1,782 9% 1,413 5% 0.6 -2.5% 12 1% 14 1% 0.7 1.7% 4,554 7% 4,008 5% 0.7 -1.4% 24,504 7% 27,098 6% 0.9 1.1% Educational Services 162 4% 201 4% 1.1 2.4% 704 13% 678 14% 1.1 -0.4% 16 0% 205 4% 9.8 32.8% 592 3% 465 2% 0.6 -2.6% 89 6% 173 7% 1.1 7.7% 3,256 5% 3,827 5% 0.9 1.8% 32,862 9% 42,375 9% 1.1 2.9% Health Care and Social Assistance 1,285 30% 928 19% 0.6 -3.6% 86 2% 223 5% 3.1 11.2% 161 4% 380 7% 1.8 10.0% 269 1% 1,096 4% 3.2 16.9% 135 10% 200 8% 0.9 4.5% 3,477 6% 5,880 8% 1.3 6.0% 38,357 10% 54,076 12% 1.2 3.9% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 49 1% 130 3% 2.3 11.5% 1 1% 48 1% 1.0 0.0% 19 0% 51 1% 2.1 11.6% 1,347 7% 3,536 14% 2.1 11.3% 123 9% 40 2% 0.2 -11.7% 2,002 3% 4,671 6% 1.8 9.9% 12,595 3% 13,406 3% 0.9 0.7% Accommodation and Food Services 1,114 26% 1,801 36% 1.4 5.5% 592 11% 789 17% 1.6 3.2% 1,237 32% 1,011 20% 0.6 -2.2% 1,455 7% 1,547 6% 0.8 0.7% 95 7% 1,134 47% 7.0 31.7% 7,815 13% 9,406 12% 1.0 2.1% 40,652 11% 51,686 11% 1.1 2.7% Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 312 7% 334 7% 0.9 0.8% 129 2% 107 2% 1.0 -2.1% 262 7% 160 3% 0.5 -5.3% 569 3% 245 1% 0.3 -8.9% 62 4% 85 4% 0.8 3.6% 2,568 4% 2,245 3% 0.7 -1.5% 17,883 5% 15,844 3% 0.7 -1.3% Public Administration 8 0% 258 5% 28.1 0.0% 1,136 20% 1,281 27% 1.3 1.3% 5 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 24 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 2 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 1,400 2% 1,650 2% 0.9 1.8% 7,418 2% 6,661 1% 0.7 -1.2% Total 4,312 4,957 1.6% 5,565 4,709 -1.8% 3,911 5,117 3.0% 20,660 26,095 2.6% 1,420 2,420 6.1% 61,734 78,135 2.7% 376,342 455,201 2.1% Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng 602 14% 557 11% 0.8 -0.9% 365 7% 252 5% 0.8 -4.0% 846 22% 1,201 23% 1.1 4.0% 5,087 25% 6,260 24% 1.0 2.3% 202 14% 268 11% 0.8 3.2% 10,825 18% 15,144 19% 1.1 3.8% 57,352 15% 67,196 15% 1.0 1.8% Excluding Educational Services 4,150 96% 4,756 96% 1.0 1.5% 4,861 87% 4,031 86% 1.0 -2.1% 3,895 100% 4,912 96% 1.0 2.6% 20,068 97% 25,630 98% 1.0 2.8% 1,331 94% 2,247 93% 1.0 6.0% 58,478 95% 74,308 95% 1.0 2.7% 343,480 91% 412,826 91% 1.0 2.1% Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies
1.21 0.24
0.79 0.63
2.31 0.62
0.33 0.89
3.06 1.021.03
2.48 1.60
1.80 2.05
1.06 0.41
1.02 3.23
2.08 0.94
0.62 1.24 1.34
1.84 0.92
0.71 0.95
1.17 0.88
0.00 0.50
1.00 1.50
2.00 2.50
3.00 3.50
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Shift Share - 2010-2019
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County From 2010 to 2019 , within the city of Calrsbad there are four distinct neighborhoods identified for their employment growth potential. The top performer across most employment categories has been the industrial core (green) and should continue to be the focus of continued growth. Of the selected key industries, the only sector that saw negative employment growth in the industrial core was information, which may be seen as a somewhat dying industry.
3.8%
-13.4%
-1.1%
-3.6%
11.5%
-7.0%
-13.3%
-3.1%
11.2%
0.0%
3.4%
14.0%
8.6%
10.0%
11.6%
3.3%
-7.1%
2.9%
16.9%
11.3%
1.9%
-2.6%
5.1% 6.0%
9.9%
1.2%
-1.6%
1.6%
3.9%
0.7%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Annual Job Growth - 2010-2019
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County The four industries highlighted in blue
text aggregate to the "Finance, Real
Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal.
21604.00 Macro2: JobGr Micromarkets The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 29 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2C
EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY GROWTH
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2010 AND 2019
Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shif t 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift 2010 2019 Shift Jobs Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Num. Share Num. Share Share Gr/Yr Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 994 3% 909 2% 0.7 -1.0% 1,755 5% 2,199 5% 1.1 2.5% 400 1% 717 2% 1. 4 6.7% 342 2% 271 1% 0.7 -2.6% 411 1% 176 0% 0. 3 -9. 0% 9,131 2% 8, 752 2% 0.8 -0. 5% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 2 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 17 0% 9 0% 0.4 -6.8% 1 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100.0% 0 0% 1 0% 0.0 0. 0% 22 0% 0 0% 0.0 -100. 0% 65 0% 53 0% 0.7 -2. 2% Utilities 222 1% 229 0% 0.8 0.3% 174 0% 82 0% 0.4 -8.0% 173 1% 111 0% 0.5 -4.8% 53 0% 29 0% 0.5 - 6.5% 381 1% 389 0% 0.8 0. 2% 1,885 1% 1,772 0% 0. 8 -0.7% Construction 1,432 4% 2,510 5% 1.4 6.4% 2,912 8% 5,648 13% 1.6 7.6% 2,082 6% 3,752 9% 1.4 6.8% 497 2% 738 3% 1.4 4. 5% 1,602 3% 2,857 4% 1.4 6. 6% 20,082 5% 32, 906 7% 1.4 5.6% Manufacturing 2,167 6% 4,780 10% 1.8 9.2% 7,564 21% 8,197 19% 0.9 0.9% 4,859 15% 4,224 10% 0.7 -1.5% 197 1% 326 1% 1. 5 5.8% 9,361 15% 11,459 15% 1. 0 2.3% 43,247 11% 55, 846 12% 1.1 2.9% Wholesale Trade 1,464 4% 1,659 4% 0.9 1.4% 3,839 11% 3,586 8% 0.8 -0.8% 1,561 5% 1,781 4% 0.9 1.5% 547 3% 666 3% 1. 1 2.2% 4,545 7% 5,589 7% 1.0 2. 3% 17,773 5% 19, 250 4% 0.9 0.9% Retail Trade 5,079 13% 5,365 11% 0.8 0.6% 3,410 10% 4,201 10% 1.0 2.3% 3,164 10% 3,432 8% 0.9 0.9% 2,918 14% 3, 022 13% 1.0 0.4% 7,222 12% 8, 576 11% 0.9 1.9% 39,524 11% 44, 172 10% 0.9 1.2% Transportation and Warehousing 670 2% 1,052 2% 1.3 5.1% 263 1% 923 2% 3.0 15.0% 677 2% 733 2% 0.9 0.9% 73 0% 518 2% 6.5 24.3% 612 1% 929 1% 1.2 4. 7% 4,143 1% 6, 439 1% 1.3 5. 0% Information 396 1% 381 1% 0.8 -0.4% 584 2% 192 0% 0.3 -11.6% 282 1% 251 1% 0.7 -1.3% 190 1% 134 1% 0.6 - 3.8% 1,681 3% 1, 329 2% 0.6 -2. 6% 8,869 2% 7,669 2% 0.7 -1. 6% Finance and Insurance 713 2% 579 1% 0.7 -2.3% 425 1% 558 1% 1.1 3.1% 449 1% 540 1% 0.9 2.1% 514 2% 522 2% 0.9 0.2% 2,145 3% 1, 983 3% 0.7 - 0.9% 12, 472 3% 13,048 3% 0.9 0.5% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 584 2% 723 2% 1.0 2.4% 688 2% 696 2% 0.9 0.1% 517 2% 778 2% 1.2 4.6% 371 2% 479 2% 1.2 2.9% 1,803 3% 1, 487 2% 0.7 - 2.1% 7, 805 2% 9,340 2% 1.0 2.0% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 3,414 9% 1,740 4% 0.4 -7.2% 1,425 4% 1,954 5% 1.2 3.6% 1,489 5% 1,623 4% 0.9 1.0% 1,745 8% 1, 780 8% 0.9 0.2% 5,979 10% 9, 387 12% 1.2 5.1% 33,562 9% 38, 559 8% 0.9 1.6% Management of Companies and Enterprises 319 1% 593 1% 1.5 7.1% 203 1% 219 1% 0.9 0.8% 121 0% 202 0% 1.3 5.9% 38 0% 118 1% 2.9 13.4% 898 1% 2,287 3% 2. 0 10.9% 3, 513 1% 6,249 1% 1. 5 6.6% Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 2,310 6% 3,171 7% 1.1 3.6% 1,972 6% 2,031 5% 0.9 0.3% 2,505 8% 3,292 8% 1.0 3.1% 1,477 7% 809 4% 0. 5 -6.5% 4,554 7% 4, 008 5% 0.7 -1. 4% 24,504 7% 27,098 6% 0.9 1.1% Educational Services 4,973 13% 6,204 13% 1.0 2.5% 2,807 8% 2,808 7% 0.8 0.0% 5,404 17% 6,632 16% 1.0 2.3% 1,555 8% 2, 037 9% 1.2 3.0% 3,256 5% 3, 827 5% 0.9 1.8% 32,862 9% 42, 375 9% 1.1 2.9% Health Care and Social Assistance 5,060 13% 7,052 15% 1.1 3.8% 3,327 9% 3,997 9% 1.0 2.1% 2,744 9% 5,282 13% 1.5 7.5% 4,836 23% 4, 901 22% 0.9 0.1% 3,477 6% 5, 880 8% 1.3 6.0% 38,357 10% 54, 076 12% 1.2 3.9% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 976 3% 1,047 2% 0.9 0.8% 328 1% 338 1% 0.9 0.3% 250 1% 651 2% 2.1 11.2% 449 2% 497 2% 1.0 1.1% 2,002 3% 4, 671 6% 1.8 9. 9% 12,595 3% 13, 406 3% 0.9 0.7% Accommodation and Food Services 4,125 11% 6,213 13% 1.2 4.7% 2,342 7% 3,041 7% 1.1 2.9% 2,973 9% 4,745 12% 1.3 5.3% 3,024 15% 3, 658 16% 1.1 2.1% 7,815 13% 9, 406 12% 1.0 2.1% 40,652 11% 51, 686 11% 1.1 2.7% Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 1,874 5% 1,847 4% 0.8 -0.2% 1,242 3% 1,143 3% 0.8 -0.9% 1,363 4% 1,478 4% 0.9 0.9% 1, 442 7% 1,571 7% 1.0 1.0% 2,568 4% 2, 245 3% 0.7 -1.5% 17, 883 5% 15,844 3% 0.7 -1. 3% Public Administration 882 2% 922 2% 0.8 0.5% 422 1% 455 1% 0.9 0.8% 1,137 4% 480 1% 0.3 -9.1% 348 2% 320 1% 0.8 - 0.9% 1,400 2% 1, 650 2% 0.9 1.8% 7, 418 2% 6,661 1% 0.7 -1.2% Total 37,656 46,976 2.5% 35,699 42,277 1.9% 32,151 40,704 2.7% 20,616 22,397 0.9% 61,734 78,135 2.7% 376,342 455,201 2.1% Finance, R
eal Estate, Prof Services, Mng 5,030 13% 3,635 8% 0.6 -3.5% 2,741 8% 3,427 8% 1.1 2.5% 2,576 8% 3,143 8% 1.0 2.2% 2,668 13% 2, 899 13% 1.0 0.9% 10,825 18% 15, 144 19% 1.1 3.8% 57,352 15% 67, 196 15% 1.0 1.8% Ex
cludin
g Educational Services 32,683 87% 40,772 87% 1.0 2.5% 32,892 92% 39,469 93% 1.0 2.0% 26,747 83% 34,072 84% 1.0 2.7% 19,061 92% 20, 360 91% 1.0 0.7% 58,478 95% 74, 308 95% 1.0 2.7% 343,480 91% 412, 826 91% 1.0 2.1% Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies
0.85 0.77
0.41 1.12
0.86 1.04
0.28 1.16
1.01 0.870.86
0.70 0.86
1.52 2.06
0.95 0.65
0.94 0.93
1.020.94
0.62 1.24
1.34 1.84
0.92 0.71
0.95 1.17
0.88 0.00
0.50 1.00
1.50 2.00
2.50 Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Shift Share - 2010-2019
Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County
0.6%
-0.4%
-7.2%
3.8%
0.8%
2.3%
-11.6%
3.6%
2.1%
0.3%0.9%
-1.3%
1.0%
7.5%
11.2%
0.4%
-3.8%
0.2% 0.1%
1.1%
1.9%
-2.6%
5.1%
6.0%
9.9%
1.2%
-1.6%
1.6%
3.9%
0.7%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Annual Job Growth - 2010-2019
Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County The four industries highlighted in blue
text aggregate to the "Finance, Real
Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal.
From 2010 to 2019 , the city of Carlsbad was a consistent top performer in growth of key employment categories. Most Notably in Arts, entertainment and recreation sector and the Professional, scientific and technical services sector. The latter may be key for continued focus and growth as this category usually equates to higher wage jobs. 21604.00 Macro2: JobGr cities The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 30 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2C
EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY COMPOSITION
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Aviara Carlsbad North County Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of Jobs Num.
Shar
e
Carls
bad Num.
Shar
e
Carlsb
ad
Jobs
to
Labo Num.
Shar
e
Carl
sbad Num. Share
Carl
sbad
Jobs
to
Labor Num. Share
Carls
bad Num.
Shar
e
Carl
sba
d
Jobs
to
Labor Num. Share
Carlsb
ad Num.
Shar
e
Carl
sba
d
Jobs
to
Labor Num. Share
Carlsb
ad Num.
Shar
e
Carl
sba
d
Jobs
to
Labor Num. Share County Num.
Shar
e
North
County
Jobs
to
Labor Num. Share Num. Share
Jobs
to
Labor
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0 0% 0% 23 1% 6% 0.0 0 0% 0% 34 1% 19% 0.0 0 0% 0% 17 1% 10% 0.0 76 0% 43% 11 1% 6% 6.9 34 1% 0% 20 1% 0% 1.7 176 0% 2% 381 1% 5% 0.5 8,752 2% 7,337 1% 1.2 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0% --- 0 0% 0% --- 0 0% --- 1 0% --- 0.0 0 0% --- 0 0% --- --- 0 0% --- 0 0% --- --- 0 0% 0% 0 0% 0% --- 0 0% 0% 10 0% 6% 0.0 53 0% 168 0% 0.3 Utilities 0 0% 0% 7 0% 4% 0.0 0 0% 0% 18 0% 5% 0.0 245 5% 63% 5 0% 1% 49.0 24 0% 6% 7 1% 2% 3.4 0 0% 0% 13 0% 1% 0.0 389 0% 22% 200 0% 8% 1.9 1,772 0% 2,402 0% 0.7 Construction 147 3% 5% 114 6% 5% 1.3 285 6% 10% 214 5% 7% 1.3 289 6% 10% 69 4% 2% 4.2 349 1% 12% 52 5% 2% 6.7 200 8% 1% 105 4% 0% 1.9 2,857 4% 9% 2,169 5% 7% 1.3 32,906 7% 31,338 6% 1.1 Manufacturing 26 1% 0% 157 8% 4% 0.2 6 0% 0% 276 7% 2% 0.0 75 1% 1% 112 6% 1% 0.7 4,121 16% 36% 112 10% 1% 36.8 0 0% 0% 239 8% 0% 0.0 11,459 15% 21% 4,159 9% 9% 2.8 55,846 12% 48,770 9% 1.1 Wholesale Trade 36 1% 1% 83 4% 3% 0.4 23 0% 0% 207 5% 4% 0.1 316 6% 6% 102 6% 2% 3.1 3,180 12% 57% 46 4% 1% 69.1 32 1% 0% 188 6% 1% 0.2 5,589 7% 29% 2,459 5% 11% 2.3 19,250 4% 22,147 4% 0.9 Retail Trade 324 7% 4% 162 9% 4% 2.0 865 18% 10% 375 9% 4% 2.3 424 8% 5% 178 10% 2% 2.4 3,028 12% 35% 95 9% 1% 31.9 177 7% 0% 276 9% 1% 0.6 8,576 11% 19% 4,059 8% 9% 2.1 44,172 10% 45,848 9% 1.0 Transportation and Warehousing 52 1% 6% 44 2% 4% 1.2 0 0% 0% 92 2% 10% 0.0 125 2% 13% 50 3% 5% 2.5 328 1% 35% 20 2% 2% 16.4 1 0% 0% 58 2% 1% 0.0 929 1% 14% 1,009 2% 9% 0.9 6,439 1% 11,070 2% 0.6 Information 3 0% 0% 48 3% 4% 0.1 47 1% 4% 105 3% 8% 0.4 175 3% 13% 48 3% 4% 3.6 427 2% 32% 23 2% 2% 18.6 62 3% 1% 77 3% 1% 0.8 1,329 2% 17% 1,319 3% 11% 1.0 7,669 2% 12,366 2% 0.6 Finance and Insurance 120 2% 6% 67 4% 4% 1.8 37 1% 2% 144 3% 7% 0.3 107 2% 5% 70 4% 4% 1.5 774 3% 39% 34 3% 2% 22.8 66 3% 1% 109 4% 1% 0.6 1,983 3% 15% 1,748 4% 10% 1.1 13,048 3% 17,490 3% 0.7 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 195 4% 13% 46 2% 4% 4.2 53 1% 4% 82 2% 6% 0.6 237 5% 16% 52 3% 3% 4.6 443 2% 30% 22 2% 1% 20.1 32 1% 0% 74 2% 1% 0.4 1,487 2% 16% 1,094 2% 10% 1.4 9,340 2% 10,490 2% 0.9 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 242 5% 3% 189 10% 3% 1.3 162 3% 2% 463 11% 5% 0.3 713 14% 8% 234 13% 2% 3.0 3,871 15% 41% 133 12% 1% 29.1 169 7% 0% 403 14% 1% 0.4 9,387 12% 24% 6,073 13% 11% 1.5 38,559 8% 56,295 11% 0.7 Management of Companies and Enterprises 0 0% 0% 40 2% 4% 0.0 0 0% 0% 96 2% 4% 0.0 144 3% 6% 39 2% 2% 3.7 1,172 4% 51% 33 3% 1% 35.5 1 0% 0% 62 2% 1% 0.0 2,287 3% 37% 994 2% 10% 2.3 6,249 1% 9,816 2% 0.6 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 160 3% 4% 106 6% 4% 1.5 105 2% 3% 216 5% 5% 0.5 460 9% 11% 92 5% 2% 5.0 1,413 5% 35% 73 7% 2% 19.4 14 1% 0% 134 5% 0% 0.1 4,008 5% 15% 2,577 5% 8% 1.6 27,098 6% 31,345 6% 0.9 Educational Services 201 4% 5% 175 9% 4% 1.1 678 14% 18% 486 12% 13% 1.4 205 4% 5% 161 9% 4% 1.3 465 2% 12% 103 9% 3% 4.5 173 7% 0% 286 10% 1% 0.6 3,827 5% 9% 4,914 10% 10% 0.8 42,375 9% 49,948 10% 0.8 Health Care and Social Assistance 928 19% 16% 210 11% 4% 4.4 223 5% 4% 472 11% 8% 0.5 380 7% 6% 215 12% 4% 1.8 1,096 4% 19% 119 11% 2% 9.2 200 8% 0% 345 12% 1% 0.6 5,880 8% 11% 5,635 12% 9% 1.0 54,076 12% 64,969 13% 0.8 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 130 3% 3% 57 3% 4% 2.3 48 1% 1% 123 3% 3% 0.4 51 1% 1% 47 3% 1% 1.1 3,536 14% 76% 41 4% 1% 86.2 40 2% 0% 99 3% 1% 0.4 4,671 6% 35% 1,427 3% 11% 3.3 13,406 3% 12,696 2% 1.1 Accommodation and Food Services 1,801 36% 19% 232 12% 5% 7.8 789 17% 8% 481 12% 5% 1.6 1,011 20% 11% 176 10% 2% 5.7 1,547 6% 16% 138 12% 1% 11.2 1,134 47% 2% 300 10% 1% 3.8 9,406 12% 18% 4,921 10% 9% 1.9 51,686 11% 53,075 10% 1.0 Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 334 7% 15% 54 3% 4% 6.2 107 2% 5% 148 4% 7% 0.7 160 3% 7% 57 3% 3% 2.8 245 1% 11% 27 2% 1% 9.1 85 4% 1% 94 3% 1% 0.9 2,245 3% 14% 1,540 3% 9% 1.5 15,844 3% 16,822 3% 0.9 Public Administration 258 5% 16% 63 3% 4% 4.1 1,281 27% 78% 149 4% 9% 8.6 0 0% 0% 34 2% 2% 0.0 0 0% 0% 27 2% 2% 0.0 0 0% 0% 89 3% 1% 0.0 1,650 2% 25% 1,439 3% 11% 1.1 6,661 1% 13,015 3% 0.5 Total 4,957 6% 1,877 4% 2.6 4,709 6% 4,182 5% 1.1 5,117 7% 1,758 2% 2.9 26,095 33% 1,116 1% 23.4 2,420 1% 2,971 1% 0.8 78,135 17% 48,127 9% 1.6 455,201 517,407 0.9 Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng 557 11% 4% 342 18% 3% 1.6 252 5% 2% 785 19% 5% 0.3 1,201 23% 8% 395 22% 3% 3.0 6,260 24% 41% 222 20% 1% 28.2 268 11% 0% 648 22% 1% 0.4 15,144 19% 23% 9,909 21% 11% 1.5 67,196 15% 94,091 18% 0.7 Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies
6.5%
0.1%
4.9%
18.7%
2.6%
18.4%
1.0%
3.4%
4.7%
1.0%
8.3%
3.4%
13.9%
7.4%
1.0%
11.6%
1.6%
14.8%
4.2%
13.6%
11.0%
1.7%
12.0%
7.5%
6.0%
9.7%
1.7%
8.5%
11.9%
2.9%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Jobs - Industry Share
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County
8.6%
2.6%
10.1%
11.2%
3.0%
9.0%
2.5%
11.1% 11.3%
2.9%
10.1%
2.7%
13.3%
12.2%
2.7%
8.5%
2.1%
11.9%
10.7%
3.7%
8.4%
2.7%
12.6%
11.7%
3.0%
8.9%
2.4%
10.9%
12.6%
2.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Labor - Industry Share
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor Carlsbad North County The four industries highlighted in blue
text aggregate to the "Finance, Real
Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal.
21604.00 Macro2: JobI micromarket The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 31 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2C
EMPLOYMENT - INDUSTRY COMPOSITION
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor Jobs Labor % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of % of
Jobs Num. Share
North
Count Num.
Shar
e
North
Count
Jobs
to Num.
Shar
e
Nort
h Num.
Shar
e
Nort
h
Jobs
to Num.
Shar
e
Nort
h Num.
Shar
e
North
Count
Jobs
to Num.
Shar
e
Nort
h Num. Share
Nort
h
Jobs
to Num.
Shar
e
North
Coun Num.
Shar
e
North
County
Jobs
to Num.
Shar
e Num.
Shar
e
Jobs
to
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 909 2% 10% 1,142 1% 16% 0.8 2,199 5% 25% 1,063 2% 12% 2.1 717 2% 8% 642 2% 7% 1.1 271 1% 3% 186 1% 2% 1.5 176 0% 2% 381 1% 5% 0.5 8,752 2% 7,337 1% 1.2 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0% 0% 25 0% 15% 0.0 9 0% 17% 18 0% 34% 0.5 0 0% 0% 8 0% 15% 0.0 1 0% 2% 6 0% 11% 0.2 0 0% 0% 10 0% 6% 0.0 53 0% 168 0% 0.3 Utilities 229 0% 13% 326 0% 14% 0.7 82 0% 5% 259 0% 15% 0.3 111 0% 6% 182 0% 10% 0.6 29 0% 2% 90 0% 5% 0.3 389 0% 22% 200 0% 8% 1.9 1,772 0% 2,402 0% 0.7 Construction 2,510 5% 8% 4,656 6% 15% 0.5 5,648 13% 17% 4,235 8% 13% 1.3 3,752 9% 11% 2,905 7% 9% 1.3 738 3% 2% 1,029 5% 3% 0.7 2,857 4% 9% 2,169 5% 7% 1.3 32,906 7% 31,338 6% 1.1 Manufacturing 4,780 10% 9% 7,298 9% 15% 0.7 8,197 19% 15% 5,933 11% 11% 1.4 4,224 10% 8% 4,692 11% 8% 0.9 326 1% 1% 1,769 8% 3% 0.2 11,459 15% 21% 4,159 9% 9% 2.8 55,846 12% 48,770 9% 1.1 Wholesale Trade 1,659 4% 9% 3,599 5% 16% 0.5 3,586 8% 19% 2,650 5% 14% 1.4 1,781 4% 9% 1,966 5% 10% 0.9 666 3% 3% 1,100 5% 6% 0.6 5,589 7% 29% 2,459 5% 11% 2.3 19,250 4% 22,147 4% 0.9 Retail Trade 5,365 11% 12% 7,901 10% 17% 0.7 4,201 10% 10% 5,350 10% 12% 0.8 3,432 8% 8% 3,923 9% 9% 0.9 3,022 13% 7% 2,041 9% 5% 1.5 8,576 11% 19% 4,059 8% 9% 2.1 44,172 10% 45,848 9% 1.0 Transportation and Warehousing 1,052 2% 16% 2,027 3% 18% 0.5 923 2% 14% 1,266 2% 20% 0.7 733 2% 11% 863 2% 13% 0.8 518 2% 8% 445 2% 7% 1.2 929 1% 14% 1,009 2% 9% 0.9 6,439 1% 11,070 2% 0.6 Information 381 1% 5% 1,565 2% 13% 0.2 192 0% 3% 987 2% 13% 0.2 251 1% 3% 873 2% 11% 0.3 134 1% 2% 659 3% 9% 0.2 1,329 2% 17% 1,319 3% 11% 1.0 7,669 2% 12,366 2% 0.6 Finance and Insurance 579 1% 4% 2,131 3% 12% 0.3 558 1% 4% 1,389 3% 11% 0.4 540 1% 4% 1,217 3% 9% 0.4 522 2% 4% 857 4% 7% 0.6 1,983 3% 15% 1,748 4% 10% 1.1 13,048 3% 17,490 3% 0.7 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 723 2% 8% 1,506 2% 14% 0.5 696 2% 7% 985 2% 11% 0.7 778 2% 8% 789 2% 8% 1.0 479 2% 5% 548 2% 6% 0.9 1,487 2% 16% 1,094 2% 10% 1.4 9,340 2% 10,490 2% 0.9 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,740 4% 5% 6,208 8% 11% 0.3 1,954 5% 5% 4,076 8% 11% 0.5 1,623 4% 4% 3,924 9% 10% 0.4 1,780 8% 5% 2,928 13% 8% 0.6 9,387 12% 24% 6,073 13% 11% 1.5 38,559 8% 56,295 11% 0.7 Management of Companies and Enterprises 593 1% 9% 1,361 2% 14% 0.4 219 1% 4% 818 2% 13% 0.3 202 0% 3% 726 2% 12% 0.3 118 1% 2% 426 2% 7% 0.3 2,287 3% 37% 994 2% 10% 2.3 6,249 1% 9,816 2% 0.6 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 3,171 7% 12% 5,147 7% 16% 0.6 2,031 5% 7% 3,576 7% 13% 0.6 3,292 8% 12% 2,773 7% 10% 1.2 809 4% 3% 1,234 5% 5% 0.7 4,008 5% 15% 2,577 5% 8% 1.6 27,098 6% 31,345 6% 0.9 Educational Services 6,204 13% 15% 6,968 9% 14% 0.9 2,808 7% 7% 4,248 8% 10% 0.7 6,632 16% 16% 4,130 10% 10% 1.6 2,037 9% 5% 2,551 11% 6% 0.8 3,827 5% 9% 4,914 10% 10% 0.8 42,375 9% 49,948 10% 0.8 Health Care and Social Assistance 7,052 15% 13% 9,965 13% 15% 0.7 3,997 9% 7% 6,344 12% 12% 0.6 5,282 13% 10% 5,155 12% 10% 1.0 4,901 22% 9% 2,682 12% 5% 1.8 5,880 8% 11% 5,635 12% 9% 1.0 54,076 12% 64,969 13% 0.8 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,047 2% 8% 2,171 3% 17% 0.5 338 1% 3% 1,325 2% 10% 0.3 651 2% 5% 1,013 2% 8% 0.6 497 2% 4% 511 2% 4% 1.0 4,671 6% 35% 1,427 3% 11% 3.3 13,406 3% 12,696 2% 1.1 Accommodation and Food Services 6,213 13% 12% 9,375 12% 18% 0.7 3,041 7% 6% 5,662 11% 11% 0.5 4,745 12% 9% 4,380 10% 8% 1.1 3,658 16% 7% 2,214 10% 4% 1.7 9,406 12% 18% 4,921 10% 9% 1.9 51,686 11% 53,075 10% 1.0 Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 1,847 4% 12% 2,783 4% 17% 0.7 1,143 3% 7% 1,715 3% 11% 0.7 1,478 4% 9% 1,391 3% 9% 1.1 1,571 7% 10% 810 4% 5% 1.9 2,245 3% 14% 1,540 3% 9% 1.5 15,844 3% 16,822 3% 0.9 Public Administration 922 2% 14% 1,993 3% 15% 0.5 455 1% 7% 1,255 2% 19% 0.4 480 1% 7% 1,013 2% 15% 0.5 320 1% 5% 504 2% 8% 0.6 1,650 2% 25% 1,439 3% 11% 1.1 6,661 1% 13,015 3% 0.5 Total 46,976 10% 78,147 15% 0.6 42,277 9% 53,154 12% 0.8 40,704 9% 42,565 9% 1.0 22,397 5% 22,590 5% 1.0 78,135 17% 48,127 9% 1.6 455,201 517,407 0.9 Finance, Real Estate, Prof Services, Mng 3,635 8% 4% 11,206 14% 12% 0.3 3,427 8% 5% 7,268 14% 11% 0.5 3,143 8% 5% 6,656 16% 10% 0.5 2,899 13% 4% 4,759 21% 7% 0.6 15,144 19% 23% 9,909 21% 11% 1.5 67,196 15% 94,091 18% 0.7 Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 11%
1%
4%
15%
2%
10%
0%
5%
9%
1%
8%
1%
4%
13%
2%
13%
1%
8%
22%
2%
11%
2%
12%
8%
6%
10%
2%
8%
12%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Jobs - Industry Share
Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County 10%
2%
8%
13%
3%
10%
2%
8%
12%
2%
9%
2%
9%
12%
2%
9%
3%
13%
12%
2%
8%
3%
13%
12%
3%
9%
2%
11%
13%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Labor - Industry Share
Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas Carlsbad North County The four industries highlighted in blue
text aggregate to the "Finance, Real
Estate, Prof Services, Mng" subtotal.
21604.00 Macro2: JobI cities The Concord Group
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 32 of 142
-- -- --- -- --- -- --- -- --- --- - -
c::::J D CJ CJ CJ CJ
I ~ , .-.- • □ DI I I
II ■ I I ■ 11
■ 1 1 ■ I
EXHIBIT I-2C
EMPLOYMENT - HISTORICAL INDUSTRY GROWTH
CARLSBAD, CA
2002 AND 2019
Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies
0.00 1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
7,000.00
8,000.00
9,000.00
10,000.00
11,000.00
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesHealth Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Shift Share - 2002-2019
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
11.7%
2.7%
9.7%
5.6%
3.2%
12.1%
2.2%
10.8%
6.3%
6.9%
11.0%
1.7%
12.0%
7.5%
6.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Retail Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesHealth Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Annual Job Growth - 2002-2019
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
21604.00 Macro2: JobGr Carlsbad Alltime The Concord Group 27 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 33 of 142
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
Ill
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT I-2C
GROWTH CHARACTERISTICS - EMPLOYMENT
SAN DIEGO MSA & SELECT US METROS
2006 THROUGH 2026
Peer Metros Competitive Metros
United States San Diego Nashville Charlotte San Jose Austin Raleigh Boston Los Angeles New York S an Francisco Dallas MSA: Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc.
Historical Employment (000s)
2006 136,434 1,314 785 989 905 736 491 2,431 5,746 8,753 2,037 2,917 2011 131,922 1,250 786 976 896 812 509 2,448 5,338 8,719 1,957 3,003 2016 144,329 1,422 950 1,147 1,080 1,001 600 2,699 5,983 9,557 2,328 3,504 2021 143,402 1,411 1,014 1,184 1,086 1,098 619 2,577 5,749 9,112 2,285 3,754 5-Yr Annual Growth -185.4 (0.1%) -2.3 (0.2%) 12.8 1.3% 7.4 0.6% 1.0 0.1% 19.5 1.9% 3.9 0.6% -24.5 (0.9%) -46.9 (0.8%) -88.9 (0.9%) -8.5 (0.4%) 50.1 1.4% 10-Yr Annual Growth 1,148.1 0.8% 16.1 1.2% 22.8 2.6% 20.8 2.0% 19.0 1.9% 28.6 3.1% 11.0 2.0% 12.9 0.5% 41.0 0.7% 39.3 0.4% 32.8 1.6% 75.1 2.3% Employment Forecast (000s)
2021 143,402 0.0% 1,411 0.0% 1,014 0.0% 1,184 0.0% 1,086 0.0% 1,098 0.0% 619 0.0% 2,577 0.0% 5,749 0.0% 9,112 0.0% 2,285 0.0% 3,754 0.0% 2026 154,287 1,543 1,110 1,305 1,187 1,264 690 2,786 6,240 9,870 2,508 4,259 5-Yr Annual Growth 2,176.9 1.5% 26.5 1.8% 19.2 1.8% 24.2 2.0% 20.2 1.8% 33.1 2.8% 14.2 2.2% 42.0 1.6% 98.3 1.7% 151.5 1.6% 44.6 1.9% 101.0 2.6% Color = Growth Rank (red = 1-2, orange = 3-4, yellow = 5-6, green = 7-8, blue = 9-10, purple = 11) Source: Moody's (Updated 1.24.22)
-0.2%
1.2%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
United States San Diego Nashville Charlotte San Jose Austin Raleigh Boston Los Angeles New York San Francisco Dallas Historical Employment Growth
5-Yr (2016-2021) 10-Yr (2011-2021) US 5-Yr US 10-Yr
17571.03 GrowthResil:MetroGr-Emp Page 1 of 1 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 34 of 142
--- ________ n -------- ------------------------------------------------n ____ _ -
EXHIBIT I-2D
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA
2009 vs. 2019
Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2019 All Jobs - 453k
2009 All Jobs - 361k
21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 35 of 142
5 - G99 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ /OU - 1, /81 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 2,782 - 6,252 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 6,253 11,111 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 11,112 - 17,359 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
1 - 8 Jobs
o 9 - 119 Jobs
o 120 601 Jobs
e 602 - 1,898 Jobs
e 1,899 - 4,634 Jobs
o 0 o
.. 0 : .. 0
0 0
• o •• e
oeo:.,.Y
ocJO •
. ______ .., ___ _
0 ~ 9,
0 t,
•
0 0
0 0
0 EXHIBIT I-2D
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA
2009 vs. 2019
Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2019 Health Care - 53K (12%)
2009 Health Care - 36K (10%)
21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 36 of 142
0 5 - 297 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 298 - 1,173 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 1,17~ 2,63'1 Jobs/Sq. Mile
■ 2,63~ - 4,679 Jobs/Sq. Mile
■ 4,680 - / ,309 Jobs/Sq. Mile
1 - ~ Jobs
o 6 - 70 Jobs
71 - 351 Jobs
0 Po1Vay
0 •
8 0
Camp Penclelon ~ --th
-1ol. • . ,.._
.,, ..
• .1o..··
0 §, 78
~
1i:: ,-
'!' o
8" o_•o •
_:o . o o
l..J
5 - 297 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 298 - 1,173 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 1,174 . 2,634 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 2,635 . 4,679 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 4,680 . 7,309 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
, 1 - ~ ,lohis
o 6 - 70 Jobs
O 71 - 3~1 ,lohis
e 352 - 1,108 Jobs
. 1,109 . },70~ ,lohis
Po\Vay
.... "00
oo" ~ (>
'
EXHIBIT I-2D
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA
2009 vs. 2019
Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2019 Manufacturing - 55K (12.5%)
2009 Manufacturing - 43K (11.9%)
21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 37 of 142
Camp Pencleton Sooth
5 - 388 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 389 - 1,SdO Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 1,541 - 3,458 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 3,459 - 6,145 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 6,146 - 9,599 Job s/Sq.Mile
1 - 5 Jobs
u 6 - 71 Jobs
11 - 3~8 Jobs
359 - 1,132 Jobs
Poway
s
0 0
5 - 392 Job s/Sq.Mi le
■ 393 - 1,553 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 1,55,1 3,-189 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 3,490 - 6,199 Jobs/Sq.Mile
Jobs/Sq.Mile
1 6 Jobs
u 7 - 82 Jobs
o 83 -114 Jobs
e 415 . 1,307 Jobs
e 1,308 - 3,190 Jobs
0 0
0 Po\vay
·.
EXHIBIT I-2D
JOB CLUSTERS
NORTH COUNTY SAN DIEGO, CA
2009 vs. 2019
Note: Boxes - jobs per square mile (job intensity / density) Source: US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies (On the Map) 2009 Retail - 38K (10.5%)
2019 Retail - 44K (9.7%)
21604.00 Macro2: Heat-Jobs THE CONCORD GROUP
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 38 of 142
5 - 167 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 1fill - 6~ ,loM /Sq.MilP.
■ 655 - 1,466 Job s/Sq.Mile
■ 1,467 - 2,602 Jobs/Sq.Mlle
■ 2,603 ~ , ()6,1 Jobs/Sq.Mile
, 1 2 Jobs
o 3 - 27 Jobs
o }R _ 134 ,Johis
e 135 - 424 Jobs
e 425 - 1,034 Jobs
• 0
- 0
--0
Vis ta ·-?
0 0
o•
0 '\ ••
MAL I
0 5 _ 193 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 194 - 760 Job s/Sq.Mile
■ 761 - 1,704 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 1,70~ _ 3,077 ,JohAfSq.MilP.
■ 3,028 ~,727 Jobs/Sq.Mile
, 1 - 3 Jobs
o 4 - 34 Jobs
o 35 - 168 Jobs
• 16!1 - ~:l1 .lohis
• 532 1,297 Jobs
0 Poway
EXHIBIT I-2E
COMMUTE PATTERNS
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Geography: Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc.
Living in Selected Geography
Jobs/Labor Ratio
Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201
Employed Labor 48,127 78,147 53,154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Jobs/Labor 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9
Commute to Work (Living in Geography)
Distance to Work
Under 10-Miles 21,391 44% 33,393 43% 26,956 51% 20,189 47% 9,556 42% 215,189 42% 10-24 Miles 11,882 25% 16,071 21% 9,550 18% 10,137 24% 7,229 32% 151,099 29% 25-50 Miles 5,549 12% 13,880 18% 7,200 14% 3,819 9% 1,091 5% 54,152 10% Over 50-Miles 9,305 19% 14,803 19% 9,448 18% 8,420 20% 4,714 21% 96,967 19% Direction of Work
Northerly 20,977 44% 26,085 33% 16,373 31% 15,475 36% 10,921 48% 187,276 36% Southerly 21,534 45% 43,538 56% 30,262 57% 17,456 41% 9,722 43% 260,597 50% Easterly 15,127 31% 28,740 37% 12,036 23% 8,407 20% 6,524 29% 110,534 21% Westerly 16,111 33% 24,223 31% 21,590 41% 21,209 50% 6,688 30% 230,425 45% Location of Work
Surrounding Cities
Carlsbad city, CA 11,416 14.6% 2,672 5.7% 2,049 4.8% 1,769 4.3% 2,522 11.3% Oceanside city, CA 11,370 14.6% 13,708 29.2% 5,724 13.5% 3,401 8.4% 2,158 9.6% San Diego city, CA 9,116 11.7% 3,149 6.7% 3,337 7.9% 3,913 9.6% 3,800 17.0% Vista city, CA 6,546 8.4% 4,521 9.6% 7,129 16.9% 2,980 7.3% 1,061 4.7% San Marcos city, CA 4,671 6.0% 1,819 3.9% 2,884 6.8% 5,751 14.1% 1,037 4.6% Escondido city, CA 3,780 4.8% 2,057 4.4% 3,110 7.4% 4,784 11.8% 1,040 4.6% Encinitas city, CA 2,996 3.8% 840 1.8% 747 1.8% 812 2.0% 3,551 15.9% Solana Beach city, CA 313 0.4% 111 0.2% 100 0.2% 92 0.2% 241 1.1% Lake San Marcos CDP, CA 268 0.3% 66 0.1% 124 0.3% 232 0.6% 70 0.3% Subtotal 50,476 64.6% 28,943 61.6% 25,204 59.6% 23,734 58.3% 15,480 69.1% North of Carlsbad
Los Angeles city, CA 1,511 1.9% 854 1.8% 722 1.7% 837 2.1% 362 1.6% Long Beach city, CA 311 0.4% 179 0.4% 158 0.4% 172 0.4% 65 0.3% San Jose city, CA 267 0.3% 43 0.1% 49 0.1% 293 0.7% 21 0.1% San Francisco city, CA 169 0.2% 30 0.1% 39 0.1% 32 0.1% 27 0.1% Orange County 0.0%
Anaheim city, CA 307 0.4% 179 0.4% 156 0.4% 110 0.3% 57 0.3% Santa Ana city, CA 285 0.4% 187 0.4% 166 0.4% 126 0.3% 50 0.2% Irvine city, CA 241 0.3% 137 0.3% 84 0.2% 99 0.2% 40 0.2% Mission Viejo city, CA 239 0.3% 128 0.3% 85 0.2% 95 0.2% 34 0.2% San Clemente city, CA 222 0.3% 127 0.3% 84 0.2% 69 0.2% 51 0.2% Laguna Niguel city, CA 207 0.3% 122 0.3% 72 0.2% 52 0.1% 40 0.2% Garden Grove city, CA 199 0.3% 103 0.2% 70 0.2% 70 0.2% 26 0.1% Huntington Beach city, CA 169 0.2% 96 0.2% 75 0.2% 69 0.2% 43 0.2% Newport Beach city, CA 168 0.2% 61 0.1% 48 0.1% 37 0.1% 25 0.1% Lake Forest city, CA 149 0.2% 75 0.2% 48 0.1% 40 0.1% 37 0.2% Tustin city, CA 149 0.2% 55 0.1% 47 0.1% 44 0.1% 27 0.1% Rancho Santa Margarita city, CA 149 0.2% 75 0.2% 48 0.1% 46 0.1% 18 0.1% Subtotal 4,742 6.1% 2,451 5.2% 1,951 4.6% 2,191 5.4% 923 4.1% South San Diego
Chula Vista city, CA 938 1.2% 554 1.2% 541 1.3% 523 1.3% 374 1.7% El Cajon city, CA 342 0.4% 283 0.6% 210 0.5% 253 0.6% 175 0.8% National City city, CA 239 0.3% 137 0.3% 133 0.3% 133 0.3% 89 0.4% La Mesa city, CA 202 0.3% 170 0.4% 113 0.3% 134 0.3% 118 0.5% Subtotal 1,721 2.2% 1,144 2.4% 997 2.4% 1,043 2.6% 756 3.4% Inland East Counties
Fallbrook CDP, CA 663 0.8% 888 1.9% 900 2.1% 519 1.3% 118 0.5% Temecula city, CA 583 0.7% 561 1.2% 462 1.1% 483 1.2% 133 0.6% Poway city, CA 581 0.7% 162 0.3% 263 0.6% 440 1.1% 241 1.1% Murrieta city, CA 560 0.7% 489 1.0% 440 1.0% 435 1.1% 116 0.5% Menifee city, CA 438 0.6% 340 0.7% 300 0.7% 352 0.9% 97 0.4% Riverside city, CA 320 0.4% 241 0.5% 230 0.5% 289 0.7% 79 0.4% Santee city, CA 237 0.3% 155 0.3% 111 0.3% 115 0.3% 94 0.4% Corona city, CA 224 0.3% 122 0.3% 103 0.2% 118 0.3% 35 0.2% Moreno Valley city, CA 209 0.3% 221 0.5% 185 0.4% 177 0.4% 52 0.2% Valley Center CDP, CA 186 0.2% 103 0.2% 175 0.4% 244 0.6% 46 0.2% Ramona CDP, CA 153 0.2% 123 0.3% 126 0.3% 197 0.5% 69 0.3% La Presa CDP, CA 143 0.2% 91 0.2% 84 0.2% 101 0.2% 46 0.2% San Bernardino city, CA 142 0.2% 119 0.3% 116 0.3% 108 0.3% 33 0.1% French Valley CDP, CA 138 0.2% 109 0.2% 113 0.3% 106 0.3% 30 0.1% Subtotal 4,577 5.9% 3,724 7.9% 3,608 8.5% 3,684 9.1% 1,189 5.3% Remaining Cities 16,619 21.3% 10,714 22.8% 10,517 24.9% 10,052 24.7% 4,049 18.1% Subtotal 78,135 100% 46,976 100% 42,277 100% 40,704 100% 22,397 100% Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 21604.00 Macro2: JobC The Concord Group
45 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 39 of 142
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EXHIBIT I-2E
COMMUTE PATTERNS
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Employed Labor Living in Oceanside - Location of Work
Key Takeaways
1. The city of Carlsbad has a high concentration of individuals who are commuting from the greater San Diego area to jobs located within the city.
2. Outside of the major surrounding cities, a high portion of commuters are traveling from coastal northern cities and counties (Greater Los Angeles, Orange County) Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 65%
6%
2%
6%
21%
Directional
Breakdown of Where Workers Live Who
are Employed Within t
he City of Carlsbad as a
Percent of Total Jobs
Surrounding CitiesNorth of CarlsbadSouth San Diego
Inland East CountiesRemaining Cities
0 2000
4000
6000
8000
10 000
12000
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas
Number of Employed Individuals
Individuals Employed in the City of Carlsbad and Live in a Surrounding Major Metro Area San Diego city, CA Los Angeles city, CASan Francisco city, CAIrvine city, CARiverside city, CA 15%
12%
8%
6%
5%
Top Five Ci
ties of Where Workers Live Who Are
Employed in the City
of Carlsbad as a Percent of
Total Jobs
Oceanside city, CASan Diego city, CAVista city, CA
San Marcos city, CAEscondido city, CA
21604.00 Macro2: JobC The Concord Group
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5 - 45 Jobs/Sq .Mile
■ 46 - 165 J obs/S q.Mile
■ 166 - 365 Jobs/ Sq.Mil e
■ 366 - 645 Jobs/Sq.Mile
■ 646 - 1,006 Jobs/Sq.Mile
• 1 - 2Jobs
o 3- 11J o bs
•
•
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Job Counts by D istan ce/Dire ctio n in 2019
All Workers
N
s
Jobs by Distance - Work Census Block to
Home Census Block
Total Primary Jobs
Less than 10 miles
~
~
Greater than 50 miles
•
•
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2019
Count Share
72,219 100.0%
35,650 49.4%
12,968 18.0%
10,319 14.3%
13,282 18.4%
EXHIBIT I-2E
COMMUTE PATTERNS - INFLOW/ OUTFLOW
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Geography: Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc. Num. Perc.
Jobs/Labor Ratio
Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201
Employed Labor 48,127 78,147 53,154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Jobs/Labor 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9
Net Job Inflow"+" / "-" Outflow 30,008 38% (1) -31,171 -66% (1) -10,877 -26% (1) -1,861 -5% (1) -193 -1% (1) -62,206 -14% (1) Living Outside Selection Area
Employed Labor 48,127 78,147 53,154 42,565 22,590 517,407 Employed Labor Living Outside Selection Area 36,821 77% (2) 64,146 82% (2) 44,737 84% (2) 36,498 86% (2) 19,506 86% (2) 256,375 50% (2) Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less 6,608 18% 12,334 19% 8,191 18% 6,296 17% 3,266 17% 42,756 17% Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month 8,145 22% 21,445 33% 15,243 34% 10,864 30% 4,061 21% 62,567 24% Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month 22,068 60% (3) 30,367 47% 21,303 48% 19,338 53% 12,179 62% 151,052 59% Workers Aged 29 or younger 6,483 18% 15,050 23% 10,918 24% 7,879 22% 3,313 17% 50,116 20% Workers Aged 30 to 54 20,491 56% 33,943 53% 23,603 53% 20,359 56% 10,991 56% 143,781 56% Workers Aged 55 or older 9,847 27% 15,153 24% 10,216 23% 8,260 23% 5,202 27% 62,478 24% Living in Selection Area
Total Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201
Employed Labor Living in Selection Area 11,306 14% (2) 14,001 30% (2) 8,417 20% (2) 6,067 15% (2) 3,084 14% (2) 259,531 57% (2) Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less 2,337 21% 3,562 25% 1,687 20% 1,524 25% 903 29% 51,587 20% Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month 2,641 23% 5,298 38% 3,768 45% 2,192 36% 921 30% 84,280 32% Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month 6,328 56% (3) 5,141 37% 2,962 35% 2,351 39% 1,260 41% 123,664 48% Workers Aged 29 or younger 2,221 20% 3,279 23% 1,956 23% 1,451 24% 654 21% 56,686 22% Workers Aged 30 to 54 6,221 55% 7,033 50% 4,279 51% 3,165 52% 1,573 51% 137,855 53% Workers Aged 55 or older 2,864 25% 3,689 26% 2,182 26% 1,451 24% 857 28% 64,990 25% Internal Jobs Filled by Outside Workers
Total Jobs 78,135 46,976 42,277 40,704 22,397 455,201
Employed in Selection Area but living Outside 66,829 86% 32,975 70% 33,860 80% 34,637 85% 19,313 86% 194,423 43% Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less 12,395 19% 7,101 22% 5,167 15% 6,901 20% 4,552 24% 34,110 18% Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month 20,530 31% 12,371 38% 12,589 37% 12,703 37% 6,512 34% 61,396 32% Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month 33,904 51% 13,503 41% 16,104 48% 15,033 43% 8,249 43% 98,917 51% Workers Aged 29 or younger 16,743 25% 8,165 25% 7,280 22% 8,391 24% 5,061 26% 46,555 24% Workers Aged 30 to 54 35,998 54% 17,452 53% 18,494 55% 18,422 53% 10,072 52% 107,062 55% Workers Aged 55 or older 14,088 21% 7,358 22% 8,086 24% 7,824 23% 4,180 22% 40,806 21% -80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas
% Inflow/ Outflow
Jobs/ Labor
2019 City Jobs Inflow Outflow
Jobs Employed Labor Net Job Inflow/Outflow
21% 25% 20% 25% 29% 20%
23%
38% 45% 36% 30% 32%
56% 37% 35% 39% 41% 48%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Wage distribution of Employed Labor Living in Selection Area Workers earning $3,333 or more as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning between $1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area 21604.00 Macro2: InflowOutflow The Concord Group
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EXHIBIT I-2E
COMMUTE PATTERNS - INFLOW/ OUTFLOW
NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO, CA
2019
Carlsbad Encinitas Oceanside
San Marcos Vista
Key Takeaways:
1. The city of Carlsbad experiences the highest level of inflow among its four surrounding cities with a 30k influx of employed labor in 2019, accounting for 38% of all jobs within the city. The city with the next highest inflow/ outflow metric, Encinitas, has a slight negative outflow and has a considerably smaller jobs footprint of the five cities surveyed.
2. The city of Carlsbad has a higher concentration of individuals who earn $3,333 monthly over the rest of the five cities surveyed and for North County for both individuals living within Carlsbad and for those who travel to Carlsbad for work.
3. There is a higher influx of workers who reside within the city Oceanside, but travel to Carlsbad for work.
Source: "On The Map" - US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 19% 22% 15% 20% 24% 18%
31% 38% 37% 37% 34% 32%
51% 41% 48% 43% 43% 51%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Wage distribution of Employed Labor Living Outside of the Selection Area Workers earning $3,333 or more as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning between $1,250 and $3,333 as a Percent of employed labor living in selection area Workers earning $1,250 or less as Percent of employed labor living in selection area 21604.00 Macro2: InflowOutflow The Concord Group
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Inflow/Outflow Job Counts in 2019
- 66,829 - Employed in Selection Area . live outside
36,821 - Uve In Selection Area. Employed Outside
- 11,306 - Employed and live In Selection Area
1nflow1uutfl ow Job counts in LUl'J
- 34,637 - Employed in Select ion Area. Live outside
30,496 - uve 1n se1ecuon Area. Empk)ye d oucstde
- 6,067 • l!mpk.tyt:d -,mJ Uvt: lu St:h::1..Uut 1 Au:o
111nuw/Outfluw Jul.J Cuunb i11 2019
- 19.313 - Employed in Select ion Area, live Outside
19.506 - Uve In Selec1ion Aree , Cmployed Out~lde
- 3,084 • Employed and live In Select1on Area
lnHow/Outflow Job Counts in 2019
- 33, 8 60 • Err, i:,k,yo::,J i11 Sdo:<. Uoll Alt:o , l iv,:: Oul',i,,lt:
44,737 - U ve In S1:1l1:KUun Arec1, ~mpluyed Ou~de
- 8,417 - Employe<:I and U ve In Selectlon Acea
- -
Inflo w/Outflow Job Counts in 2019
- 3 2,975 • Employed in Selectio n Area. Live Outside
64,146 - Uve In Selection Area. Employed Outside
- 1<1,001 - Employed and U,.,e in Selection Area
-
EXHIBIT I-2F
MIGRATION PATTERNS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
2015 TO 2019
Total In-Migration
Source Num. Share
Top 10 States
California 51,601 39.6%
Virginia 5,906 4.5%
Texas 5,607 4.3%
Arizona 5,393 4.1%
Washington 4,644 3.6%
Florida 4,167 3.2%
Illinois 3,826 2.9%
New York 3,189 2.4%
Colorado 3,039 2.3%
Hawaii 2,692 2.1%
Rem. States 40,354 30.9%
Total 130,418
Top 25 Counties
Los Angeles County, California 10,270 7.9%
Riverside County, California 8,087 6.2%
Orange County, California 7,328 5.6%
San Bernardino County, California 4,823 3.7%
Santa Clara County, California 2,782 2.1%
Maricopa County, Arizona 2,331 1.8%
Honolulu County, Hawaii 2,003 1.5%
Alameda County, California 1,861 1.4%
Beaufort County, South Carolina 1,769 1.4%
Clark County, Nevada 1,757 1.3%
Cook County, Illinois 1,657 1.3%
King County, Washington 1,644 1.3%
San Francisco County, California 1,329 1.0%
Imperial County, California 1,204 0.9%
Onslow County, North Carolina 1,192 0.9%
Contra Costa County, California 1,174 0.9%
Sacramento County, California 1,108 0.8%
Ventura County, California 1,108 0.8%
Virginia Beach city, Virginia 1,090 0.8%
Pima County, Arizona 1,063 0.8%
Kern County, California 949 0.7%
El Paso County, Colorado 944 0.7%
Stanislaus County, California 853 0.7%
Tarrant County, Texas 848 0.7%
Santa Barbara County, California 837 0.6%
Rem. Counties 70,407 54.0%
Total 130,418
Source: US Census, Census Flows Mapper (2015 to 2019) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Los Angeles County, California
Riverside County, California
Orange County, California
San Bernardino County, California
Santa Clara County, California
Maricopa County, Arizona
Honolulu County, Hawaii
Alameda County, California
Beaufort County, South Carolina
Clark County, Nevada
Cook County, Illinois
King County, Washington
San Francisco County, California
Imperial County, California
Onslow County, North Carolina
Contra Costa County, California
Sacramento County, California
Ventura County, California
Virginia Beach city, Virginia
Pima County, Arizona
Kern County, California
El Paso County, Colorado
Stanislaus County, California
Tarrant County, Texas
Santa Barbara County, California
Top 25 Counties - Share of In Migration
17571.03 Migration: Summ The Concord Group
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EXHIBIT I-2F
DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION: REDFIN MIGRATION
SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK
2021
Source: Redfin
Key Takeaways:San Diego Residents using
Redfin to seek housing, have most frequently
searched the most northernly proximate major
metro Los Angeles. Likely Due to Los Angeles
being one of southern California's most robust
and diverse employment and cultural hubs.
21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migration The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 44 of 142
Pe r ce nta g e of San D iego, CA
Redfi 1 users sea r ch ing i
Des t i nat io n as % o f O r ig in
Lea v er s
A ll
Los A gel es, CA
Bay Area I .: ~o
Seat t le, W A 1 3.3~
Phoe nix, AZ 1 3.35'
Da llas, TX 1 3 _,o
Las Vegas, V 1 3.0:o
Port ia d, 0 I s~
Nas vi lle, T I - =
W as h i gt o , DC I :. s··
Ho usto n, TX 1--~
: 73 . 0 '
39.39'
Source : Redfin user search data for Q4 2021 © 2022 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap EXHIBIT I-2F
DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION: REDFIN MIGRATION
SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK
2021
Source: Redfin
21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migration The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 45 of 142
Qu a rt e r iy R ank o f M etr o Dest i n atio n s f o r Sa n D ie g o,. CA As pe r ce n t of or ig in loo k in g from est in at io 0 0
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201.7 Q3 2018Q3 2019 Q3 2-020Q3 2021. Q3
EXHIBIT I-2F
DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY - MIGRATION: USPS ADDRESS CHANGES (2019 VS 2020)
SAN DIEGO REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK
2021
Source: CBRE (April 2021), USPS
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Virginia Beach MSA
Honolulu MSA
Chicago MSA
Boston MSA
Dallas MSA
Washington MSA
New York MSA
Portland MSA
Denver MSA
Phoenix MSA
Riverside MSA
Seattle MSA
Las Vegas MSA
Sacramento MSA
Other MSA
San Jose MSA
Bremerton MSA
San Francisco MSA
Los Angeles MSA
Increase in USPS Address Change 2019 vs 2020
Change in Moves to San Diego MSA (USPS) -In Migration
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Seattle MSA
San Jose MSA
New York MSA
San Francisco MSA
Washington MSA
Virginia Beach MSA
Chicago MSA
Portland MSA
Las Vegas MSA
Other MSA
Houston MSA
Sacramento MSA
San Antonio MSA
Denver MSA
Austin MSA
Dallas MSA
Los Angeles MSA
Phoenix MSA
Riverside MSA
Increase in USPS Address Change 2019 vs 2020
Change in Moves out of the San Diego MSA (USPS) -Out Migration Key Takeaways:
Outside of the
Bremerton area, the
top 4 cities that San
Diego experienced the
highest change in
individuals wanting to
relocate from are all
Coastal California.
Key Takeaways: The
Riverside area will
pose a threat to
growth of the North
County region due to
Riverside counties
growing relocation
appeal for its lower
rents and the
increasing
normalization of work
from home scenarios.
21634.00 Key Conclusions_Migration: Migration The Concord Group DRAFT
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EXHIBIT I-3
DEMOGRAPHICS - SUMMARY
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2021 THROUGH 2026
Geography:
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Core/Kelly Ranch Tamarack Point Robertson/Rancho
Carlsbad Rancho La Costa Poinsettia North Beach La Costa Ridge La Costa Oaks La Costa
Greens/Bressi
Ranch/Rancho
Carrillo
Hedionda Point Calavera Hills Barrio Aviara Carlsbad
Scale
Population ('21) 3,961 8,938 4,332 2,588 7,151 6,326 17,721 12,135 3,760 6,045 8,460 13,893 4,865 6,678 3,235 7,657 112,930 Households ('21) 1,925 3,569 1,779 1,014 2,764 2,397 7,035 4,739 1,965 2,471 2,790 4,689 2,010 2,387 1,170 3,116 44,107 % of Carlsbad 4% 8% 4% 2% 6% 5% 16% 11% 4% 6% 6% 11% 5% 5% 3% 7% 100% Gr/Yr (#, '21-'26) 28 7 3 1 19 46 36 6 6 7 4 22 (1) 16 (3) 21 216 % of Carlsbad 13% 3% 1% 0% 9% 21% 16% 3% 3% 3% 2% 10% --- 7% --- 10% 100% Over $100K HH Growth 17 36 24 1 42 76 90 54 34 36 27 90 29 23 8 50 623 Under $100K HH Growth 11 (30) (21) 0 (24) (30) (54) (48) (28) (29) (23) (67) (30) (8) (11) (29) (407) Gr/Yr (%, '21-'26) 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% (0.0%) 0.7% (0.2%) 0.7% 0.5% Employment ('21) 5,037 4,094 5,342 26,415 1,690 14,086 6,085 10,452 508 391 1,526 3,528 712 1,260 630 3,004 80,858 % of Carlsbad 6% 5% 7% 33% 2% 17% 8% 13% 1% 0% 2% 4% 1% 2% 1% 4% 100% Household Size ('21)
Average HH Size 1.78 2.50 2.44 2.54 2.55 2.61 2.50 2.56 1.91 2.45 3.03 2.96 2.40 2.80 2.75 2.45 2.54 1-Person 49% 21% 27% 26% 22% 23% 24% 24% 38% 24% 11% 16% 24% 16% 31% 23% 24% 2-Person 34% 39% 39% 33% 35% 37% 36% 34% 42% 40% 29% 33% 40% 31% 26% 41% 36% 3+ Person 17% 40% 34% 41% 43% 40% 40% 42% 20% 36% 60% 51% 36% 53% 43% 37% 41% Age Breakdown ('21)
Median Age 43.7 41.6 49.3 40.2 41.5 40.2 48.7 41.1 39.6 43.0 41.0 37.6 50.1 41.6 33.7 48.5 42.1 Under 20 18% 19% 23% 23% 21% 27% 22% 27% 13% 24% 30% 29% 16% 26% 26% 20% 24% 20-24 5% 6% 4% 8% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 3% 4% 5% 8% 6% 5% 25-34 16% 17% 8% 12% 14% 12% 7% 10% 20% 10% 8% 12% 10% 10% 18% 10% 12% 35-44 12% 12% 9% 12% 13% 13% 12% 13% 23% 13% 11% 18% 14% 15% 18% 10% 13% 45-54 10% 12% 14% 14% 11% 12% 14% 14% 12% 15% 18% 12% 11% 15% 12% 13% 13% 55-64 10% 15% 15% 16% 14% 12% 15% 14% 12% 14% 17% 12% 17% 15% 9% 17% 14% 65-74 9% 11% 14% 9% 12% 10% 13% 9% 9% 11% 7% 9% 16% 9% 5% 14% 11% 75+ 20% 8% 13% 6% 8% 10% 13% 7% 6% 7% 3% 4% 12% 5% 4% 10% 8% Income Breakdown ('21)
Median Income $78,661 $99,106 $117,248 $120,548 $107,708 $115,867 $141,373 $118,990 $102,354 $126,804 $167,801 $151,403 $114,453 $126,302 $56,488 $153,616 $120,203 vs. Carlsbad (35%) (18%) (2%) 0% (10%) (4%) 18% (1%) (15%) 5% 40% 26% (5%) 5% (53%) 28% -- Average Income $102,757 $128,410 $152,958 $187,720 $137,854 $130,852 $179,119 $152,497 $135,803 $159,886 $210,469 $178,826 $150,664 $150,226 $70,929 $204,081 $157,775 Under $50K 32% 16% 23% 14% 21% 29% 15% 17% 22% 16% 10% 12% 17% 8% 42% 11% 18% $50-$75K 10% 6% 9% 5% 7% 6% 7% 5% 7% 6% 3% 5% 7% 2% 16% 4% 6% $75-$100K 16% 16% 9% 16% 11% 6% 9% 10% 10% 7% 6% 9% 11% 13% 23% 9% 11% $100-$150K 11% 18% 9% 14% 13% 5% 9% 11% 16% 12% 8% 12% 12% 11% 12% 6% 11% $150-$200K 24% 18% 21% 12% 23% 23% 19% 23% 22% 25% 17% 16% 26% 28% 19% 22% 21% Over $200K 7% 17% 17% 9% 15% 18% 16% 14% 10% 19% 20% 17% 12% 21% 0% 16% 15% Net Worth Breakdown ('21)
Median Net Worth $79,006 $288,076 $578,339 $359,705 $257,381 $394,998 $797,790 $345,644 $88,389 $518,129 $1,051,057 $638,641 $596,959 $642,245 $25,906 $906,199 $465,549 vs. Carlsbad (83%) (38%) 24% (23%) (45%) (15%) 71% (26%) (81%) 11% 126% 37% 28% 38% (94%) 95% 100% Average Net Worth $546,271 $1,593,419 $2,454,959 $2,061,614 $1,758,171 $1,844,023 $2,767,490 $2,009,920 $951,037 $2,234,927 $3,384,025 $1,925,761 $2,643,365 $2,309,292 $94,259 $3,196,857 $2,105,727 Under $50K 40% 22% 11% 22% 24% 19% 8% 19% 38% 13% 10% 8% 13% 7% 62% 9% 17% $50-$250K 35% 25% 22% 21% 25% 23% 18% 26% 31% 25% 16% 22% 19% 18% 31% 16% 23% $250-$500K 10% 12% 13% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 8% 11% 8% 12% 12% 14% 4% 10% 11% $500-$1M 6% 16% 17% 14% 14% 17% 18% 14% 8% 17% 14% 19% 19% 25% 2% 16% 16% $1M-$1.5M 3% 7% 11% 8% 7% 9% 12% 8% 4% 8% 12% 11% 10% 10% 0% 12% 9% $1.5M-$2M 1% 4% 7% 7% 4% 4% 9% 5% 2% 6% 11% 8% 5% 5% 0% 9% 6% Over $2M 5% 14% 19% 17% 15% 17% 24% 18% 9% 20% 29% 20% 22% 20% 0% 26% 19% Source: ESRI; US Census (American Factfinder)
57%
25%17%
56%
29%
69%
28%
58%
24%
58%
20%
53%
25%
53%
27%
61%
24%
51%
24%
58%
20%
53%
25%
53%
27%
61%
24%
58%
20%
53%
25%
53%
27%
61%
21690.00 DemoDemand: Demo (Sub) THE CONCORD GROUP
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□ { □{ □{ D { D { D { D { D { D { D { D { D { D { D { D { D { D{ EXHIBIT I-3
DEMOGRAPHICS - SUMMARY
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2021 THROUGH 2026
Geography:
Carlsbad Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Escondido Encinitas Del Mar North County San Diego County Scale
Population ('21) 112,930 120,731 12,637 102,484 48,140 188,686 180,999 51,396 12,752 1,215,352 3,287,244 Households ('21) 44,107 37,935 5,549 34,046 16,368 65,981 57,587 20,619 5,805 419,160 1,152,906 % of North County 11% 9% 1% 8% 4% 16% 14% 5% 1% 100% --- Gr/Yr (#, '21-'26) 216 269 11 310 24 339 264 69 7 2,465 6,567 % of North County 9% 11% 0% 13% 1% 14% 11% 3% 0% 100% 266% Over $100K HH Growth 623 531 61 565 161 1,015 729 270 72 6,262 16,204 Under $100K HH Growth (407) (262) (50) (254) (137) (675) (465) (201) (65) (3,797) (9,638) Gr/Yr (%, '21-'26) 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% Employment ('21) 80,858 46,014 9,543 35,599 28,091 47,933 67,748 27,162 8,651 475,097 1,579,455 % of North County 17% 10% 2% 7% 6% 10% 14% 6% 2% 100% --- Household Size ('21)
Average HH Size 2.54 3.12 2.28 2.99 2.91 2.76 3.10 2.46 2.20 2.84 2.76 1-Person 24% 20% 30% 20% 16% 23% 20% 26% 28% 21% 24%
2-Person 36% 30% 39% 30% 32% 32% 29% 35% 43% 32% 31%
3+ Person 41% 50% 31% 50% 53% 45% 50% 38% 28% 47% 45%
Age Breakdown ('21)
Median Age 42.1 34.5 45.6 35.7 43.6 34.6 36.0 44.2 52.4 37.8 36.2 Under 20 24% 27% 19% 28% 23% 25% 27% 21% 16% 26% 24%
20-24 5% 7% 5% 6% 5% 9% 6% 5% 3% 7% 8%
25-34 12% 17% 12% 15% 11% 17% 15% 12% 9% 14% 16%
35-44 13% 13% 13% 14% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
45-54 13% 11% 13% 12% 14% 10% 11% 13% 12% 12% 12%
55-64 14% 11% 15% 10% 16% 11% 12% 15% 17% 13% 12%
65-74 11% 8% 13% 8% 11% 8% 9% 12% 17% 9% 9%
75+ 8% 6% 10% 7% 7% 7% 6% 9% 13% 7% 6%
Income Breakdown ('21)
Median Income $120,203 $76,562 $121,861 $87,920 $114,994 $75,197 $76,396 $121,035 $157,844 $99,854 $84,989 vs. North County 20% (23%) 22% (12%) 15% (25%) (23%) 21% 58% -- (15%) Average Income $157,775 $95,677 $176,041 $112,604 $155,877 $96,752 $99,897 $163,371 $216,157 $130,684 $113,225 Under $50K 18% 30% 18% 29% 19% 34% 33% 20% 12% 25% 30%
$50-$75K 6% 11% 7% 9% 7% 13% 12% 6% 4% 9% 10%
$75-$100K 11% 18% 12% 15% 11% 16% 16% 11% 7% 13% 15%
$100-$150K 11% 14% 8% 11% 10% 13% 13% 9% 12% 11% 12%
$150-$200K 21% 19% 22% 21% 22% 20% 19% 18% 16% 20% 20%
Over $200K 15% 10% 10% 11% 15% 9% 10% 14% 12% 12% 11%
Net Worth Breakdown ('21)
Median Net Worth $465,549 $123,490 $459,153 $196,223 $518,129 $128,037 $145,627 $404,510 $857,446 $252,331 $144,778 vs. North County 84% (51%) 82% (22%) 105% (49%) (42%) 60% 240% 100% 57% Average Net Worth $2,105,727 $750,165 $2,433,509 $1,085,494 $2,361,902 $863,784 $1,090,838 $2,165,727 $3,371,672 $1,547,775 $1,109,413 Under $50K 17% 34% 18% 28% 16% 35% 34% 20% 13% 25% 33%
$50-$250K 23% 29% 23% 26% 21% 27% 26% 22% 16% 25% 27%
$250-$500K 11% 13% 10% 13% 12% 13% 12% 10% 9% 12% 11%
$500-$1M 16% 11% 12% 14% 17% 11% 12% 14% 15% 14% 11%
$1M-$1.5M 9% 4% 8% 6% 9% 5% 5% 8% 10% 7% 5%
$1.5M-$2M 6% 2% 7% 3% 6% 2% 3% 6% 8% 4% 3%
Over $2M 19% 6% 21% 10% 19% 7% 9% 19% 29% 13% 9%
Source: ESRI; US Census (American Factfinder)
57%
27%25%
52%
31%
62%
25%
57%
25%
53%
28%
58%
30%
58%
23%
59%
29%
58%
25%
53% 57%
27%
21690.00 DemoDemand: Demo (City) THE CONCORD GROUP
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EXHIBIT I-3
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE SUMMARY
D CARLSBAD
2011 THROUGH 2026
Carlsbad 10 Year Carlsbad 5 Year Δ Summary
Geography 2011 2021 Δ 2021 2026 Δ '11-'21 '11-'26
General Information
Population 102,342 112,930 +10.3% 112,930 115,970 +2.7% +10.3% +13.3% Net new population 10,588 -- 3,040 -- 10,588 13,628
Households 39,964 44,107 +10.4% 44,107 45,188 +2.5% +10.4% +13.1% Net new households 4,143 -- 1,081 -- 4,143 5,224
Household Size 2.56 2.56 -0.0% 2.56 2.57 +0.2% -0.0% +0.2% Age Breakdown - Population
Median Age (Pop) 40.0 42.1 +2.1 42.1 42.5 +0.4 +5.3% +6.3% Under 20 26% 24% -1.8% 24% 23% -1.1% -6.9% -11.3%
20-24 5% 5% -0.1% 5% 5% -0.4% -2.8% -10.9%
25-34 12% 12% +0.0% 12% 13% +0.9% +0.2% +8.2%
35-44 16% 13% -2.3% 13% 14% +0.1% -14.8% -14.1%
45-54 16% 13% -3.0% 13% 13% -0.7% -18.4% -22.7%
55-64 12% 14% +2.1% 14% 13% -1.1% +17.4% +8.3%
65-74 7% 11% +3.9% 11% 11% +0.7% +59.1% +69.5%
75+ 7% 8% +1.2% 8% 10% +1.6% +17.9% +41.2%
Income/Wealth Breakdown - Households
Median Income $85,743 $120,203 +40.2% $120,203 $133,079 +10.7% +40.2% +55.2% Average Income $107,212 $157,775 +47.2% $157,775 $176,507 +11.9% +47.2% +64.6% Under $50K 31% 18% -13.1% 18% 14% -4.1% -42.6% -56.1%
$50-$75K 14% 11% -3.2% 11% 9% -1.1% -23.1% -31.3%
$75-$100K 13% 11% -2.0% 11% 11% -0.2% -14.8% -16.1%
$100-$150K 19% 21% +1.4% 21% 21% +0.6% +7.0% +10.4%
Over $150K 23% 40% +16.9% 40% 45% +4.8% +73.9% +94.9%
Sources: ESRI, US Census
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EXHIBIT I-3
CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIP
CARLSBAD
2014 TO 2019
Carlsbad
A. Renter Incomes
2014 2019 5 Year Change
Income Tranches Renters Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change Less than $50,000 7,122 45% 4,634 30% -2,488 -35%
$50,000 to $75,000 2,599 16% 2,686 17% 87 3%
$75,000 to $100,000 2,021 13% 1,970 13% -51 -3%
$100,000 to $150,000 2,792 18% 3,021 20% 229 8%
$150,000+ 1,365 9% 3,075 20% 1,710 125%
Total Renters: 15,899 100% 15,386 100% -513 -3%
B. % of Income Spent on Rent
$75,000+ Incomes 2014 2019 5 Year Change
Renters Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change
Less than 20% 2,229 37% 3,324 42% 1,095 49%
20% to 29% 2,749 46% 3,502 44% 753 27%
30%+ 1,057 18% 1,107 14% 50 5%
6,035 100% 7,933 100% 1,898 31%
Source: American Factfinder
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 $150,000+ Total Renters
2014
2019
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D
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EXHIBIT I-3
CHANGING NATURE OF RENTERSHIP
OCEANSIDE
2014 TO 2019
Oceanside
A. Renter Incomes
2014 2019 5 Year Change
Income Tranches Renters Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change Less than $50,000 14,209 55% 11,750 45% -2,459 -17%
$50,000 to $75,000 5,619 22% 5,130 20% -489 -9%
$75,000 to $100,000 2,879 11% 3,847 15% 968 34%
$100,000 to $150,000 2,354 9% 3,662 14% 1,308 56%
$150,000+ 767 3% 1,716 7% 949 124%
Total Renters: 25,828 100% 26,105 100% 277 1%
B. % of Income Spent on Rent
$75,000+ Incomes 2014 2019 5 Year Change
Renters Distr. Renters Distr. Renters % Change
Less than 20% 2,182 37% 3,231 35% 1,049 48%
20% to 29% 2,739 47% 4,236 46% 1,497 55%
30%+ 964 16% 1,663 18% 699 73%
5,885 100% 9,130 100% 3,245 55%
Source: American Factfinder
0 2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Less than $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $150,000 $150,000+ Total Renters
2014
2019
21690.00 DemoDemand:ChangingRenters OS THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
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- -
- -
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EXHIBIT I-4A
CITY DEMO - TOURISM
CARLSBAD
2022
Averages
Hotel Statistics 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5 Yr 10 Yr Carlsbad
Inventory (Rooms) 39,057 39,646 44,975 45,954 45,927 45,856 44,933 48,290 49,042 52,122 53,074 53,083 56,003 57,471 58,709 60,708 57,195 53,344 Occupancy 68% 70% 65% 60% 62% 63% 65% 66% 71% 72% 73% 75% 74% 72% 47% 58% 65% 67% ADR $165 $177 $167 $147 $137 $139 $142 $152 $158 $164 $166 $172 $178 $179 $128 $182 $168 $162 San Diego
Inventory (Rooms) 405,374 407,861 420,377 437,988 442,660 441,360 440,127 441,340 442,429 443,575 453,298 460,407 462,488 469,070 470,386 469,653 466,401 455,277 Occupancy 75% 74% 72% 65% 69% 71% 74% 74% 77% 78% 79% 78% 80% 78% 45% 59% 68% 72% ADR $139 $146 $149 $131 $128 $132 $138 $140 $147 $157 $161 $166 $172 $172 $128 $162 $160 $154 San Diego County
Inventory (Rooms) 646,866 650,909 670,338 691,417 698,555 697,613 697,193 703,342 711,764 717,725 729,389 739,279 747,192 762,291 770,565 775,056 758,877 735,380 Occupancy 73% 73% 70% 63% 66% 69% 71% 72% 75% 76% 77% 77% 78% 77% 48% 61% 68% 71% ADR $131 $139 $142 $124 $121 $125 $130 $133 $139 $148 $152 $157 $163 $163 $121 $155 $152 $146 Lodging Demographics (1)
Leisure 50-55%
Commerical/Corporate 30-35%
Group 10-20%
Visitor Demographics (1)
Median Age 31 Years
Median Income $80,200
Groups with Children 53%
Average Length of Stay 3.6 nights
Avg Exp per Person/Day $328
Visitor Origin (1)
Orange County 12.7%
Riverside-San Bernardino 10.0%
SF-Oakland-San Jose 8.7%
Los Angeles-Long Beach 8.5%
Phoenix-Mesa 6.7%
Las Vegas 3.0%
Purpose of Trip (1)
Pleasure/vacation 60%
Friends/Family 35%
Business 3%
Meetings 2%
(1) Carlsbad Tourism Report - 2018
60%
35%
3% 2%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2,000,000
2,200,000
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2015
Carlsbad and San Diego Visition
Total Visitors to Carlsbad Growth Visitors (Carlsbad) Growth Visitors (SD) -50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ADR and ADR Change
Carlsbad ADR San Diego ADR San Diego County ADR Carlsbad ADR Gr SD ADR Gr SD County ADR GR 21690.00 City Demo: Tourism The Concord Group
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I
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EXHIBIT I-4B
CITY DEMO - INDUSTRY COMPOSITION
CARLSBAD
2022
I. GRP
• The city of Carlsbad generates the bulk of its gross
regional product (GRP) from Manufactoring
• Professional, scientific and technical services
represent a large portion of the city's GRP
- These sectors include:
a. Tech
b. Life Sciences
c. Other innovation industries
- Anticipated growth within these sectors due to
general resilience to recessions
• Accommodation and Food services are a major
component of the economy due to the large
presence of tourism and hospitality
- Legoland creates a large influx of tourism and
visitors
II. Industry Share vs. US Share
• Manufactoring is Carlsbad's largest industry
- Producing over 14,000 jobs
- The number of jobs significantly exceeds the national average • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services represents the second largest gap as compared to the national average
- This sector is only the 2nd largest producer of jobs for the Carlsbad economy
• Accomodation and Food services is the 3rd largest
- Considering the presence of Legoland, data suggests
there is a gap to be filled in this sector
• Government employement represents the largest gap
between Carlsbad's economy and the national average
• Despite the tourism associated with Carlsbad, retail trade lags behind national average
Source: City of Carlsbad Economic Update
21690.00 City Demo: Industries The Concord Group
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Item #7 Page 53 of 142
GRP by Industry
• 2020 Gross Regional Product
Manufdlcturing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Finance .and Insurance
Government
Retail Trade
lnform :ation
Accommodation and f:"ood Services
Health Care and Soc ial Assistance
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and
Remediation Ser'Vlces
Management of Companies .and E:nterprlses
Construction
Rea l Estate and Rental and Leasing
Ut1Ht1es
Other Services (except Publlc Admlnlstr.s1on)
Trcmsportation and Warehousing
Arts, Entertainment. and Recreat1on
Educ.atton.aJ Services
Agriculture, Forestry. Fishi ng and Hunting
soooa
Industry size by employment
• Industry Jobs
Manufactunng
Prolession.:;;I, Sdenr1fic. and Technlcal Se,vlces
Accommod;1tion and Food Services
Retail T,.ade
Health Care and Soc ial Assistance
Government
Other Services {excepl Public Admlntstrat1on)
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and
Remediation Services
Wholesale Trade
Construct1on
Managemen1 of Companies and E:n1e1prlses
Finance and Insu rance
T ransportation and Warehousing
Arts. Enterta inment and Recreation
Real E:state and Rental and Leasing
Edu~tioncil Services
lnformatton
Utilities
Agrlcu lrnre. Forestry. Fishin g and Hunting
----------~ -----··
2,000
$2 OOOB
• N.;;ationdll Average
I
6,000
S:3000B $4000B
EXHIBIT I-4C
LARGEST EMPLOYERS
CARLSBAD, CA
JANUARY 2022
Jobs
Rank Company Industry Number HQ
1 Park Hyatt Aviara Tourism 3,980
2 Viasat, Inc. Communications 2,563 HQ
3 Thermo Fisher Scientific Biotechnology 2,400
4 Gemological Institute of America 800 HQ
5 City of Carlsbad Government 680 HQ
6 GenMark Dx Biotechnology 662
7 Nordson Corporation Manufacturing 600
8 Callaway Golf Retail 590
9 Ionis Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology 586
10 LEGOLAND California Tourism 400
11 OptumRx Biotechnology 400 HQ
12 Genoptix Biotechnology 400 HQ
13 Omni La Costa Resort & Spa Tourism 365 HQ
14 Great Call/ Jitterbug Communications 200
15 Costco Retail 150
16 Continuing Life Communities Medical 100
17 Zimmer Dental Biotechnology 90 HQ
18 SGN Nutrition Retail 40 HQ
19 TaylorMade - Adidas Retail ---
20 Carlsbad Unified School DistrictGovernment ---
Total 15,006
Source: Carlsbad Chamber of Commerce , San Diego Business Journal, Union Tribune, various sites. 59 DRAFT
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EXHIBIT I-4D
DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - MULTIFAMILY DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP
CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES
AS OF FEBRUARY 2022
Source: ESRI, Costar
LEGEND
Color = Year Built
Purple = Pre-1970
Blue = 1970 - 1980
Green = 1980 - 1990
Yellow = 1990 - 2000
Orange = 2000 - 2010
Red = After 2010
Number of Units
21690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeatMap The Concord Group 60 DRAFT
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Item #7 Page 55 of 142
• Under 20
• 21 - 40
• 41 - 80
• 81 - 120
• 121 - 170
- 171 - 25-0
- 251 - 39()
0 0
0 0
0 • .,
" .. , 0
•
•
0 0 0
c:. w
0 '
•
EXHIBIT I-4D
DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - OFFICE DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP
CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES
AS OF FEBRUARY 2022
Source: ESRI, Costar
RBA
LEGEND
Color = Year Built
Purple = Pre-1970
Blue = 1970 - 1980
Green = 1980 - 1990
Yellow = 1990 - 2000
Orange = 2000 - 2010
21690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeatMap The Concord Group 61 DRAFT
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Item #7 Page 56 of 142
0 •
••
-
~
Q
0 ~ ,_
•tt tP 0
• r. •
0 C
~t
• Under 10,000
• 10,000 - 22,000
• 22,000 - 40,000
• 40,000 - 70,000
• 70,000 - 11 5,000
- 11 5,000 - 100,000
- 100,000- 450,000
• Over 450,000
0 1 °
.@..
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0 0 0 •
rjJ
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•
0 0 0
0 0 0
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EXHIBIT I-4D
DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS - RETAIL DEVELOPMENT HEAT MAP
CARLSBAD AND SELECT SURROUNDING CITIES
AS OF FEBRUARY 2022
Souce: ESRI, Costar
LEGEND
Color = Year Built
Purple = Pre-1970
Blue = 1970 - 1980
Green = 1980 - 1990
Yellow = 1990 - 2000
Orange = 2000 - 2010
RBA
21690.00 Development Maps: DevelopmentHeatMap The Concord Group 62 DRAFT
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• Under 6,000
6,000 - 15,000
15,000 - 30,000
30,000 _ 50,000
• 50,000 - 00,000
- OO,OOO - 130,000
• 130,000 - 240,000
• Over 240000
Ocean
- L.J
•
0 -
0 ■ •
•
0 • •
Q
e E9tl HERE, In. {c Stree 1M.apCM
Office Opportunity Analysis
63 DRAFT
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Item #7 Page 58 of 142
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - OVERALL
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s T 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 386 386 391 391 391 404 404 404 404 404 404 396 395 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13 0 5 0 0 13 0 --- 0 0 0 4 1 Net Absorption T 6 -5 6 4 -2 -4 -9 -17 9 12 6 2 -9 15 --- 3 3 3 5 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 3.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% 6.2% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 6.9% 3.1% 4.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% Vacant SF 15 20 14 11 12 16 25 29 20 13 7 5 28 13 18 15 13 10 13 17 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.33 $20.67 $20.56 $20.68 $22.88 $21.72 $25.49 $26.93 $30.35 $31.66 $31.78 $31.63 $30.53 $32.45 $33.17 $33.94 $32.45 $33.69 $31.61 $28.54 % Change -8.7% -18.4% -0.5% 0.6% 10.6% -5.1% 17.4% 5.6% 12.7% 4.3% 0.4% -0.5% -3.5% 6.3% --- 2.3% -4.4% 3.8% 1.3% 4.6% Olde Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s T 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -8 4 6 1 11 -5 2 11 1 -1 2 0 3 -10 --- -6 0 4 -1 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 21.2% 18.6% 15.1% 14.6% 7.8% 10.8% 9.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% 6.3% 2.2% 6.1% 6.3% 3.5% 2.4% 4.6% Vacant SF 34 30 24 23 12 17 16 5 4 4 2 3 0 10 4 10 10 6 4 7 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $35.43 $34.74 $34.05 $28.35 $18.49 $18.77 $25.67 $26.89 $26.10 $25.41 $35.33 $45.93 $34.58 $32.48 $41.81 $32.33 $32.48 $32.48 $34.75 $28.97 % Change 46.5% -1.9% -2.0% -16.7% -34.8% 1.5% 36.8% 4.8% -2.9% -2.6% 39.0% 30.0% -24.7% -6.1% --- -22.7% 0.5% 0.0% 4.5% 1.4% South Beach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s T 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 Net Deliveries R 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 --- 0 -3 1 2 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 9.9% 10.1% Vacant SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 1 1 4 3 14 14 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 --- --- --- --- --- $41.93 $40.32 $41.24 $41.24 $40.32 $33.00 $41.13 $32.07 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- -3.8% --- 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% --- 4.5% Industrial Corridor
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s T 3,347 3,347 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,466 3,446 Net Deliveries R 46 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption T 66 3 -99 154 34 127 45 -72 -58 -65 -49 87 129 -7 --- -31 3 73 19 17 Total Vacancy Rate T 21.9% 21.8% 26.5% 22.0% 21.0% 17.3% 16.0% 18.1% 19.8% 21.7% 24.2% 21.7% 18.0% 18.2% 17.4% 18.3% 18.2% 16.1% 20.8% 19.6% Vacant SF 733 730 908 754 720 593 548 620 679 744 841 754 626 633 605 636 633 560 719 676 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.84 $28.64 $25.54 $25.67 $25.53 $26.21 $27.39 $28.61 $29.68 $29.33 $30.08 $31.55 $31.91 $32.62 $32.20 $32.60 $32.62 $32.89 $31.10 $29.29 % Change -2.5% -4.0% -10.8% 0.5% -0.5% 2.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.7% -1.2% 2.6% 4.9% 1.1% 2.2% --- 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.9% 2.4% Source: Costar
*No office property in Aviara submarkets
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Deliveries
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Performance (Sub) Page 1 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT
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Item #7 Page 59 of 142
---------- -------- ------------------------------------------------ ---------------- -------- ■ ■ ■
■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - OVERALL
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 30,312 31,265 31,516 31,654 31,710 31,904 31,949 32,307 32,590 32,685 32,980 33,315 33,891 33,929 33,884 33,944 33,929 33,929 33,360 32,726 Net Deliveries R 28,706 953 252 138 56 195 44 358 284 95 295 335 575 38 --- 60 -15 0 268 227 Net Absorption T 23,933 81 1,025 591 365 552 327 641 -38 -210 557 498 75 271 --- 189 190 -102 238 304 Total Vacancy Rate T 16.0% 18.3% 15.7% 14.2% 13.2% 12.0% 11.1% 10.1% 11.0% 11.9% 11.0% 10.4% 11.7% 11.0% 12.0% 11.6% 11.0% 11.3% 11.2% 11.3% Vacant SF 4,850 5,721 4,948 4,495 4,186 3,829 3,546 3,263 3,585 3,890 3,628 3,465 3,965 3,732 4,066 3,938 3,732 3,834 3,736 3,709 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.47 $29.52 $28.14 $27.71 $27.71 $27.76 $28.91 $30.45 $33.10 $33.99 $34.97 $34.97 $35.58 $37.44 $36.55 $36.62 $37.44 $37.89 $35.39 $32.49 % Change -6.5% -11.8% -4.7% -1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 4.1% 5.3% 8.7% 2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 1.7% 5.2% --- 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 2.5% 3.1% Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 6,464 6,623 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,940 7,172 7,207 7,436 7,668 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,681 7,535 7,189 Net Deliveries R 119 159 80 0 0 0 0 237 232 36 228 232 13 0 --- 0 0 0 102 98 Net Absorption T 28 96 7 235 127 181 147 79 -20 58 328 347 42 -23 --- -15 15 77 150 127 Total Vacancy Rate T 23.1% 23.5% 24.3% 20.8% 18.9% 16.2% 14.0% 15.8% 18.8% 18.4% 16.5% 14.5% 14.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.6% 14.4% 13.4% 15.6% 16.2% Vacant SF 1,493 1,556 1,629 1,394 1,267 1,086 938 1,096 1,348 1,326 1,227 1,112 1,083 1,106 1,106 1,121 1,106 1,029 1,171 1,159 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.20 $27.78 $25.39 $25.28 $24.37 $25.13 $27.54 $28.52 $29.33 $29.50 $30.18 $31.17 $32.32 $32.65 $32.41 $32.62 $32.65 $32.69 $31.16 $29.07 % Change -2.8% -8.0% -8.6% -0.4% -3.6% 3.1% 9.6% 3.6% 2.8% 0.6% 2.3% 3.3% 3.7% 1.0% --- 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 2.6% Oceanside
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,522 1,547 1,684 1,695 1,695 1,752 1,768 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,782 1,967 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1,855 1,805 Net Deliveries R 255 26 137 11 0 57 16 14 0 0 0 0 185 -6 --- 0 0 0 36 27 Net Absorption T 128 -24 162 21 47 62 -8 53 34 34 7 5 168 47 --- 27 -6 -20 52 45 Total Vacancy Rate T 18.0% 20.9% 17.7% 17.0% 14.2% 13.5% 14.7% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 8.2% 7.9% 8.0% 5.3% 6.4% 5.0% 5.3% 6.3% 7.6% 10.3% Vacant SF 274 323 298 288 241 237 260 221 187 153 146 141 157 104 125 98 104 124 140 185 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.43 $26.97 $26.33 $23.24 $24.42 $20.94 $21.60 $22.89 $23.45 $23.71 $24.42 $25.12 $26.02 $27.20 $27.09 $26.94 $27.20 $26.77 $25.29 $23.98 % Change 0.7% -11.4% -2.4% -11.7% 5.1% -14.3% 3.2% 6.0% 2.4% 1.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.6% 4.5% --- -0.6% 1.0% -1.6% 3.0% 1.6% San Marcos
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,487 1,545 1,552 1,551 1,621 1,621 1,621 1,651 1,651 1,711 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,727 1,723 1,678 Net Deliveries R 199 57 7 -1 70 0 0 30 0 60 16 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 15 18 Net Absorption T 48 -18 40 19 69 2 49 53 58 42 47 5 -45 -9 --- 9 -16 14 8 27 Total Vacancy Rate T 15.3% 19.6% 17.4% 16.1% 15.5% 15.4% 12.4% 10.8% 7.3% 8.1% 6.2% 5.9% 8.5% 9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 9.0% 8.2% 7.5% 9.9% Vacant SF 228 303 270 250 251 250 201 178 121 139 107 102 147 155 148 140 155 142 130 165 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.24 $27.82 $28.38 $27.21 $26.04 $25.35 $26.16 $26.46 $27.81 $26.21 $27.41 $27.96 $28.81 $26.49 $29.78 $30.19 $26.49 $27.48 $27.38 $26.87 % Change 7.4% -8.0% 2.0% -4.1% -4.3% -2.6% 3.2% 1.1% 5.1% -5.8% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0% -8.1% --- 1.4% -12.3% 3.7% -1.0% -0.3% Encinitas
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,633 1,633 1,636 1,636 1,643 1,643 1,677 1,677 1,680 1,684 1,684 1,708 1,708 1,768 1,708 1,768 1,768 1,768 1,711 1,687 Net Deliveries R 27 0 3 0 7 0 34 0 4 4 0 24 -1 60 --- 60 0 0 17 13 Net Absorption T -64 13 43 28 12 18 12 22 27 -31 10 33 -42 64 --- 48 14 -5 7 12 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.3% 9.5% 7.0% 5.3% 5.0% 3.9% 5.1% 3.8% 2.4% 4.5% 3.9% 3.3% 5.7% 5.3% 5.6% 6.1% 5.3% 5.6% 4.5% 4.3% Vacant SF 168 155 115 87 82 64 86 64 40 76 66 56 97 94 96 108 94 99 78 72 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.94 $29.81 $30.87 $31.70 $32.26 $32.45 $32.43 $35.53 $36.99 $38.68 $38.13 $40.45 $42.39 $42.63 $42.74 $41.92 $42.63 $42.29 $40.46 $37.19 % Change -8.0% -9.5% 3.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% -0.1% 9.6% 4.1% 4.6% -1.4% 6.1% 4.8% 0.6% --- -1.9% 1.7% -0.8% 2.9% 3.0% Vista
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,683 1,746 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,761 1,761 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,773 1,765 Net Deliveries R 61 63 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 12 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 2 2 Net Absorption T -71 1 19 21 -14 -56 44 109 -23 1 51 -73 -41 0 --- -12 -4 0 -12 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 15.0% 18.0% 17.3% 16.1% 16.9% 20.1% 17.6% 11.7% 13.0% 13.5% 10.6% 14.7% 17.0% 17.0% 16.1% 16.8% 17.0% 17.0% 14.6% 15.2% Vacant SF 252 314 304 282 297 353 309 206 229 239 188 261 301 301 285 298 301 301 258 268 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.68 $25.90 $25.56 $23.83 $23.51 $22.22 $21.56 $21.40 $21.72 $21.75 $20.32 $20.58 $26.26 $27.28 $26.97 $28.10 $27.28 $27.21 $23.24 $22.66 % Change 15.9% -6.4% -1.3% -6.8% -1.3% -5.5% -3.0% -0.7% 1.5% 0.1% -6.6% 1.3% 27.6% 3.9% --- 4.2% -2.9% -0.3% 4.7% 1.4% Source: Costar
*No office property in Aviara submarkets
Source: CoStar
-200
-100
0 100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Delliveries
Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad
21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Performance (City) Page 2 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 60 of 142
~ ~ i I -
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.5 $29.5 $28.1 $27.7 $27.7 $27.8 $28.9 $30.5 $33.1 $34.0 $35.0 $35.0 $35.6 $37.4 $36.6 $36.6 $37.4 $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 Y/Y % Change --- -11.8% -4.7% -1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 4.1% 5.3% 8.7% 2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 1.7% 5.2% --- 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 2.5% 6.2% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.2 $27.8 $25.4 $25.3 $24.4 $25.1 $27.5 $28.5 $29.3 $29.5 $30.2 $31.2 $32.3 $32.7 $32.4 $32.6 $32.7 $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 Y/Y % Change --- -8.0% -8.6% -0.4% -3.6% 3.1% 9.6% 3.6% 2.8% 0.6% 2.3% 3.3% 3.7% 1.0% --- 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 5.2% Oceanside
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.4 $27.0 $26.3 $23.2 $24.4 $20.9 $21.6 $22.9 $23.5 $23.7 $24.4 $25.1 $26.0 $27.2 $27.1 $26.9 $27.2 $26.8 $25.3 $24.0 Y/Y % Change --- -11.4% -2.4% -11.7% 5.1% -14.3% 3.2% 6.0% 2.4% 1.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.6% 4.5% --- -0.6% 1.0% -1.6% 3.0% 3.2% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.2 $27.8 $28.4 $27.2 $26.0 $25.4 $26.2 $26.5 $27.8 $26.2 $27.4 $28.0 $28.8 $26.5 $29.8 $30.2 $26.5 $27.5 $27.4 $26.9 Y/Y % Change --- -8.0% 2.0% -4.1% -4.3% -2.6% 3.2% 1.1% 5.1% -5.8% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0% -8.1% --- 1.4% -12.3% 3.7% -1.0% -0.5% Encinitas
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.9 $29.8 $30.9 $31.7 $32.3 $32.5 $32.4 $35.5 $37.0 $38.7 $38.1 $40.5 $42.4 $42.6 $42.7 $41.9 $42.6 $42.3 $40.5 $37.2 Y/Y % Change --- -9.5% 3.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% -0.1% 9.6% 4.1% 4.6% -1.4% 6.1% 4.8% 0.6% --- -1.9% 1.7% -0.8% 2.9% 6.1% Vista
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.7 $25.9 $25.6 $23.8 $23.5 $22.2 $21.6 $21.4 $21.7 $21.8 $20.3 $20.6 $26.3 $27.3 $27.0 $28.1 $27.3 $27.2 $23.2 $22.7 Y/Y % Change --- -6.4% -1.3% -6.8% -1.3% -5.5% -3.0% -0.7% 1.5% 0.1% -6.6% 1.3% 27.6% 3.9% --- 4.2% -2.9% -0.3% 4.7% 2.7% Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.3 $20.7 $20.6 $20.7 $22.9 $21.7 $25.5 $26.9 $30.4 $31.7 $31.8 $31.6 $30.5 $32.5 $33.2 $33.9 $32.5 $33.7 $31.6 $28.5 Y/Y % Change --- -18.4% -0.5% 0.6% 10.6% -5.1% 17.4% 5.6% 12.7% 4.3% 0.4% -0.5% -3.5% 6.3% --- 2.3% -4.4% 3.8% 1.3% 9.4% Olde Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $35.4 $34.7 $34.1 $28.4 $18.5 $18.8 $25.7 $26.9 $26.1 $25.4 $35.3 $45.9 $34.6 $32.5 $41.8 $32.3 $32.5 $32.5 $34.7 $29.0 Y/Y % Change --- -1.9% -2.0% -16.7% -34.8% 1.5% 36.8% 4.8% -2.9% -2.6% 39.0% 30.0% -24.7% -6.1% --- -22.7% 0.5% 0.0% 4.5% 2.8% South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.6 $27.6 $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 --- --- --- --- --- $41.9 $40.3 $41.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- -3.8% --- 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% --- 9.1% Industrial Corridor
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.8 $28.6 $25.5 $25.7 $25.5 $26.2 $27.4 $28.6 $29.7 $29.3 $30.1 $31.6 $31.9 $32.6 $32.2 $32.6 $32.6 $32.9 $31.1 $29.3 Y/Y % Change --- -4.0% -10.8% 0.5% -0.5% 2.7% 4.5% 4.5% 3.7% -1.2% 2.6% 4.9% 1.1% 2.2% --- 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% 1.9% 4.9% *No office property in Aviara submarkets Source: Costar $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista
OVERALL
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Rents Page 3 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 61 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Vacancy 16.0% 18.3% 15.7% 14.2% 13.2% 12.0% 11.1% 10.1% 11.0% 11.9% 11.0% 10.4% 11.7% 11.0% 12.0% 11.6% 11.0% 11.3% 11.2% 11.3% Y/Y % Change --- 14.4% -14.2% -9.6% -7.0% -9.1% -7.5% -9.0% 8.9% 8.2% -7.6% -5.5% 12.5% -6.0% --- -3.3% -5.2% 2.7% 0.0% -5.0% Carlsbad
Vacancy 23.1% 23.5% 24.3% 20.8% 18.9% 16.2% 14.0% 15.8% 18.8% 18.4% 16.5% 14.5% 14.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.6% 14.4% 13.4% 15.6% 16.2% Y/Y % Change --- 1.7% 3.4% -14.4% -9.1% -14.3% -13.6% 12.9% 19.0% -2.1% -10.3% -12.1% -2.8% 2.1% --- 1.4% -1.4% -6.9% -5.2% -7.1% Oceanside
Vacancy 18.0% 20.9% 17.7% 17.0% 14.2% 13.5% 14.7% 12.4% 10.5% 8.6% 8.2% 7.9% 8.0% 5.3% 6.4% 5.0% 5.3% 6.3% 7.6% 10.3% Y/Y % Change --- 16.1% -15.3% -4.0% -16.5% -4.9% 8.9% -15.6% -15.3% -18.1% -4.7% -3.7% 1.3% -33.8% --- -21.9% 6.0% 18.9% -12.8% -20.8% San Marcos
Vacancy 15.3% 19.6% 17.4% 16.1% 15.5% 15.4% 12.4% 10.8% 7.3% 8.1% 6.2% 5.9% 8.5% 9.0% 8.6% 8.1% 9.0% 8.2% 7.5% 9.9% Y/Y % Change --- 28.1% -11.2% -7.5% -3.7% -0.6% -19.5% -12.9% -32.4% 11.0% -23.5% -4.8% 44.1% 5.9% --- -5.8% 11.1% -8.9% 4.3% -11.0% Encinitas
Vacancy 10.3% 9.5% 7.0% 5.3% 5.0% 3.9% 5.1% 3.8% 2.4% 4.5% 3.9% 3.3% 5.7% 5.3% 5.6% 6.1% 5.3% 5.6% 4.5% 4.3% Y/Y % Change --- -7.8% -26.3% -24.3% -5.7% -22.0% 30.8% -25.5% -36.8% 87.5% -13.3% -15.4% 72.7% -7.0% --- 8.9% -13.1% 5.7% 17.2% 0.0% Vista
Vacancy 15.0% 18.0% 17.3% 16.1% 16.9% 20.1% 17.6% 11.7% 13.0% 13.5% 10.6% 14.7% 17.0% 17.0% 16.1% 16.8% 17.0% 17.0% 14.6% 15.2% Y/Y % Change --- 20.0% -3.9% -6.9% 5.0% 18.9% -12.4% -33.5% 11.1% 3.8% -21.5% 38.7% 15.6% 0.0% --- 4.3% 1.2% 0.0% 5.5% 1.1% Village
Vacancy 3.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% 6.2% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 6.9% 3.1% 4.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% Y/Y % Change --- 34.2% -29.4% -25.0% 14.8% 29.0% 55.0% 21.0% -32.0% -35.3% -45.5% -22.2% 392.9% -55.1% --- -15.6% -18.4% -22.6% -9.5% 2.8% Olde Carlsbad
Vacancy 21.2% 18.6% 15.1% 14.6% 7.8% 10.8% 9.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% 6.3% 2.2% 6.1% 6.3% 3.5% 2.4% 4.6% Y/Y % Change --- -12.3% -18.8% -3.3% -46.6% 38.5% -10.2% -70.1% -24.1% 27.3% -46.4% 6.7% -100.0% --- --- 177.3% 3.3% -44.4% 23.4% -15.5% South Beach
Vacancy 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 9.9% 10.1% Y/Y % Change --- 1.8% -1.2% -11.7% -17.2% -11.2% -27.0% -2.5% 43.0% 8.0% -5.7% -14.8% 37.8% -80.7% --- 0.0% 225.0% -30.8% -25.5% -29.7% Industrial Corridor
Vacancy 21.9% 21.8% 26.5% 22.0% 21.0% 17.3% 16.0% 18.1% 19.8% 21.7% 24.2% 21.7% 18.0% 18.2% 17.4% 18.3% 18.2% 16.1% 20.8% 19.6% Y/Y % Change --- -0.5% 21.6% -17.0% -4.5% -17.6% -7.5% 13.1% 9.4% 9.6% 11.5% -10.3% -17.1% 1.1% --- 5.2% -0.5% -11.5% -1.7% -3.7% *No office property in Aviara submarkets Source: Costar
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista
OVERALL
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Vacancy Page 4 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 62 of 142
--
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- -- - -- - - -- -
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-
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Carlsbad - Class A
Inventory (RBA, 000's) 1,583 1,583 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,839 1,839 1,839 2,067 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,127 1,930 Net Absorption --- 3 34 105 90 5 8 35 40 66 289 168 -56 18 --- -29 -4 -4 97 66 Vacancy 32.1% 31.9% 33.1% 26.8% 21.4% 21.1% 20.6% 26.3% 24.1% 20.5% 15.3% 14.5% 17.0% 16.2% 14.7% 16.0% 16.2% 16.4% 16.7% 19.7% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.4 $31.5 $29.5 $28.8 $27.9 $29.4 $30.5 $31.7 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $32.7 $33.4 $34.2 $33.7 $34.1 $34.2 $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 Y/Y % Change --- -2.8% -6.4% -2.4% -3.0% 5.4% 3.7% 4.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% --- 1.1% 0.4% -0.4% 1.6% 3.5% Carlsbad - Class B
Inventory (RBA, 000's) 4,507 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,743 4,975 5,011 5,011 5,066 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,049 4,896 Net Absorption --- 107 -19 131 19 177 140 58 -66 -1 30 177 113 -25 --- 20 15 66 59 62 Vacancy 21.4% 21.8% 22.2% 19.4% 19.0% 15.2% 12.2% 12.4% 17.8% 18.4% 17.8% 15.2% 13.2% 13.7% 14.4% 14.0% 13.7% 12.4% 15.7% 15.5% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.3 $26.0 $23.8 $23.9 $22.9 $23.4 $26.2 $27.0 $28.5 $28.7 $29.5 $30.3 $31.7 $32.0 $31.9 $32.1 $32.0 $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 Y/Y % Change --- -11.2% -8.5% 0.3% -4.1% 2.0% 12.3% 3.1% 5.4% 0.8% 2.7% 2.6% 4.8% 1.0% --- 0.6% -0.1% 0.5% 2.4% 6.0% Carlsbad - Class C
Inventory (RBA, 000's) 374 374 374 374 374 374 374 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 363 Net Absorption --- -16 -10 -2 18 4 -4 -10 0 -4 8 -3 -15 -5 --- -5 8 8 -4 -1 Vacancy 4.9% 9.2% 11.8% 12.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 5.1% 5.9% 10.1% 11.5% 12.2% 13.7% 11.5% 9.2% 8.0% 7.4% Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $26.1 $22.5 $23.3 $22.2 $19.1 $20.1 $22.7 $24.4 $26.9 $26.2 $27.7 $31.2 $33.3 $29.7 $29.6 $28.2 $29.7 $30.0 $29.6 $26.1 Y/Y % Change --- -13.8% 3.3% -4.6% -14.2% 5.2% 13.2% 7.4% 10.5% -2.7% 6.0% 12.6% 6.5% -10.7% --- -4.8% 5.3% 0.9% 2.0% 6.0% Rent Gap
A vs B 10.7% 21% 24% 20% 22% 26% 16% 17% 11% 10% 8% 8% 5% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7.7% 13.1% B vs C 12.1% 15% 2% 8% 20% 16% 16% 11% 6% 10% 6% -3% -5% 8% 8% 14% 8% 7% 3.2% 8.5% A vs C 24.1% 40% 27% 30% 47% 47% 35% 30% 17% 21% 15% 5% 1% 15% 14% 21% 15% 14% 11.2% 23.2% $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Carlsbad - Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Class A Class B Class C
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
100
50 0
50 100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption
Carlsbad - Net Absorption(SF , 000's) & Vacancy Rate
Class A Class B Class C Class A Vacancy Class B Vacancy Class C Vacancy 21091.00 Office Trends - Sum: Gap Page 5 of 5 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 63 of 142
-------- ---- -------- ---- -------- ---- -------- ------------- - - -
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,178 1,178 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,296 1,277 Net Deliveries R 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption T 71 -5 20 69 47 -13 -6 -20 -11 14 75 23 -43 37 --- -21 5 -4 21 10 Total Vacancy Rate T 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.1% Vacant SF 316 320 380 311 264 277 283 303 314 300 274 251 294 257 242 262 257 261 275 282 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.78 $32.60 $30.30 $29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31.41 $31.92 $31.56 $31.71 $31.81 $33.07 $33.69 $34.41 $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 $34.39 $32.94 $31.94 % Change -4.7% -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% --- 1.4% -0.1% -0.1% 1.7% 1.5% Source: Costar
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Deliveries
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
-60
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
Class A
21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Performance (Sub) Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group 69 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 64 of 142
I I I
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
■ ■ ■
I I I I I I
I I I I I I
I I
I I
I I
I
I I
I I I I I I
- - ~
■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 8,726 9,373 9,509 9,594 9,705 9,785 9,785 9,961 10,034 10,134 10,437 10,614 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 11,068 10,664 10,259 Net Deliveries R --- 647 136 84 112 80 0 176 73 100 303 177 454 0 --- 0 0 0 207 147 Net Absorption T --- 482 518 282 339 129 -39 107 35 -114 283 302 233 232 --- 221 11 -144 187 151 Total Vacancy Rate T 19.7% 20.1% 15.8% 13.6% 11.1% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.7% 13.7% 13.5% 12.1% 13.6% 11.5% 13.6% 11.6% 11.5% 12.8% 12.9% 12.0% Vacant SF 1,719 1,884 1,502 1,305 1,077 1,027 1,067 1,136 1,174 1,388 1,409 1,284 1,505 1,273 1,505 1,284 1,273 1,417 1,372 1,234 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $38.82 $35.15 $34.33 $33.61 $33.97 $35.38 $36.13 $37.70 $41.19 $41.65 $42.22 $41.83 $41.12 $44.11 $42.43 $42.35 $44.11 $44.27 $42.19 $39.53 % Change --- -9.5% -2.3% -2.1% 1.1% 4.2% 2.1% 4.3% 9.3% 1.1% 1.4% -0.9% -1.7% 7.3% --- -0.2% 4.2% 0.4% 1.4% 2.8% Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,583 1,583 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,662 1,839 1,839 1,839 2,067 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,244 2,127 1,930 Net Deliveries R 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 176 0 0 228 177 0 0 --- 0 0 0 81 58 Net Absorption T 85 3 34 105 90 5 8 35 40 66 289 168 -56 18 --- -29 -4 -4 97 66 Total Vacancy Rate T 32.1% 31.9% 33.1% 26.8% 21.4% 21.1% 20.6% 26.3% 24.1% 20.5% 15.3% 14.5% 17.0% 16.2% 14.7% 16.0% 16.2% 16.4% 16.7% 19.7% Vacant SF 508 505 550 446 356 351 342 484 443 377 316 325 381 363 330 359 363 368 353 374 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.43 $31.52 $29.49 $28.77 $27.91 $29.42 $30.52 $31.74 $31.57 $31.66 $31.82 $32.73 $33.43 $34.20 $33.67 $34.05 $34.20 $34.05 $32.77 $31.50 % Change -4.9% -2.8% -6.4% -2.4% -3.0% 5.4% 3.7% 4.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% --- 1.1% 0.4% -0.4% 1.6% 1.7% Oceanside
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 114 114 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 256 256 256 256 256 256 205 188 Net Deliveries R 114 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 0 --- 0 0 0 17 9 Net Absorption T --- 7 57 4 41 6 -21 0 -8 29 -11 3 92 9 --- 12 0 0 25 14 Total Vacancy Rate T 64.3% 58.6% 39.3% 37.1% 13.0% 9.4% 21.5% 21.5% 26.2% 9.0% 15.3% 13.8% 6.5% 2.8% 7.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 9.5% 13.9% Vacant SF 74 67 67 63 22 16 37 37 45 15 26 24 17 7 19 7 7 7 18 25 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.78 $32.10 $32.13 $29.00 $28.91 $28.37 $26.85 $27.49 $27.93 $27.79 $28.30 $29.08 $31.77 $32.23 $32.69 $32.05 $32.23 $32.23 $29.83 $28.87 % Change 3.6% -7.7% 0.1% -9.7% -0.3% -1.9% -5.4% 2.4% 1.6% -0.5% 1.8% 2.8% 9.3% 1.4% --- -2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 2.9% 1.1% San Marcos
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 361 361 361 361 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 432 Net Deliveries R 96 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 7 Net Absorption T 10 -3 -9 16 98 13 -5 18 13 0 3 -7 -23 16 --- 20 3 0 -2 13 Total Vacancy Rate T 26.0% 26.7% 29.1% 24.6% 14.3% 11.4% 12.6% 8.4% 5.5% 5.5% 4.7% 6.3% 11.6% 7.9% 13.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.2% 8.8% Vacant SF 94 96 105 89 62 49 54 36 24 24 20 27 50 34 57 37 34 34 31 38 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.04 $31.57 $31.69 $31.88 $30.81 $31.24 $31.14 $31.27 $31.47 $31.63 $31.87 $33.99 $34.39 $34.54 $34.01 $34.02 $34.54 $33.51 $33.28 $32.24 % Change -2.0% -7.3% 0.4% 0.6% -3.4% 1.4% -0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 6.7% 1.2% 0.4% --- 0.0% 1.5% -3.0% 1.9% 0.8% Encinitas
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -6 -7 7 0 -8 5 -1 9 -6 -4 1 2 -2 3 --- 3 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.8% 23.0% 11.1% 10.5% 25.8% 17.0% 18.8% 2.3% 12.7% 20.9% 18.6% 15.2% 18.6% 12.4% 18.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% 17.1% 16.2% Vacant SF 6 13 6 6 14 9 10 1 7 11 10 8 10 7 10 7 7 7 9 9 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.17 $34.17 $34.17 $34.17 $28.71 $32.92 $32.92 $34.12 $34.12 $35.32 $35.32 $35.32 $37.72 $38.13 $37.72 $38.13 $38.13 $38.13 $36.36 $34.46 % Change --- 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -16.0% 14.7% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 1.1% --- 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1.1% Source: Costar
Source: CoStar
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad
0 50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Delliveries
Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad
Class A
21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Performance (City) Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 70 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 65 of 142
■ ■ ■ ■
■ ■ ■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $38.8 $35.2 $34.3 $33.6 $34.0 $35.4 $36.1 $37.7 $41.2 $41.7 $42.2 $41.8 $41.1 $44.1 $42.4 $42.4 $44.1 $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 Y/Y % Change --- -9.5% -2.3% -2.1% 1.1% 4.2% 2.1% 4.3% 9.3% 1.1% 1.4% -0.9% -1.7% 7.3% --- -0.2% 4.2% 0.4% 1.4% 5.6% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.4 $31.5 $29.5 $28.8 $27.9 $29.4 $30.5 $31.7 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $32.7 $33.4 $34.2 $33.7 $34.1 $34.2 $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 Y/Y % Change --- -2.8% -6.4% -2.4% -3.0% 5.4% 3.7% 4.0% -0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% --- 1.1% 0.4% -0.4% 1.6% 3.5% Oceanside
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.8 $32.1 $32.1 $29.0 $28.9 $28.4 $26.9 $27.5 $27.9 $27.8 $28.3 $29.1 $31.8 $32.2 $32.7 $32.1 $32.2 $32.2 $29.8 $28.9 Y/Y % Change --- -7.7% 0.1% -9.7% -0.3% -1.9% -5.4% 2.4% 1.6% -0.5% 1.8% 2.8% 9.3% 1.4% --- -2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 2.9% 2.1% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.0 $31.6 $31.7 $31.9 $30.8 $31.2 $31.1 $31.3 $31.5 $31.6 $31.9 $34.0 $34.4 $34.5 $34.0 $34.0 $34.5 $33.5 $33.3 $32.2 Y/Y % Change --- -7.3% 0.4% 0.6% -3.4% 1.4% -0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 6.7% 1.2% 0.4% --- 0.0% 1.5% -3.0% 1.9% 1.6% Encinitas
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.2 $34.2 $34.2 $34.2 $28.7 $32.9 $32.9 $34.1 $34.1 $35.3 $35.3 $35.3 $37.7 $38.1 $37.7 $38.1 $38.1 $38.1 $36.4 $34.5 Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -16.0% 14.7% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 1.1% --- 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2% Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.8 $32.6 $30.3 $29.6 $29.4 $30.4 $31.4 $31.9 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $33.1 $33.7 $34.4 $34.0 $34.4 $34.4 $34.4 $32.9 $31.9 Y/Y % Change --- -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% --- 1.4% -0.1% -0.1% 1.7% 3.1% Source: Costar
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Industrial Corridor
Class A
21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 71 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 66 of 142
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-
~
I I I I I I I I I I I I
- - - - - - . -- - -- - - - - - --- - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- - - -- - - --- - - - - ---- - - - - - - - - I I
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Vacancy 19.7% 20.1% 15.8% 13.6% 11.1% 10.5% 10.9% 11.4% 11.7% 13.7% 13.5% 12.1% 13.6% 11.5% 13.6% 11.6% 11.5% 12.8% 12.9% 12.0% Y/Y % Change --- 2.0% -21.4% -13.9% -18.4% -5.4% 3.8% 4.6% 2.6% 17.1% -1.5% -10.4% 12.4% -15.4% --- -14.7% -0.9% 11.3% -0.3% -3.3% Carlsbad
Vacancy 32.1% 31.9% 33.1% 26.8% 21.4% 21.1% 20.6% 26.3% 24.1% 20.5% 15.3% 14.5% 17.0% 16.2% 14.7% 16.0% 16.2% 16.4% 16.7% 19.7% Y/Y % Change --- -0.6% 3.8% -19.0% -20.1% -1.4% -2.4% 27.7% -8.4% -14.9% -25.4% -5.2% 17.2% -4.7% --- 8.8% 1.3% 1.2% -7.6% -9.6% Oceanside
Vacancy 64.3% 58.6% 39.3% 37.1% 13.0% 9.4% 21.5% 21.5% 26.2% 9.0% 15.3% 13.8% 6.5% 2.8% 7.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 9.5% 13.9% Y/Y % Change --- -8.9% -32.9% -5.6% -65.0% -27.7% 128.7% 0.0% 21.9% -65.6% 70.0% -9.8% -52.9% -56.9% --- -61.6% 0.0% 0.0% -36.1% -40.4% San Marcos
Vacancy 26.0% 26.7% 29.1% 24.6% 14.3% 11.4% 12.6% 8.4% 5.5% 5.5% 4.7% 6.3% 11.6% 7.9% 13.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.2% 8.8% Y/Y % Change --- 2.7% 9.0% -15.5% -41.9% -20.3% 10.5% -33.3% -34.5% 0.0% -14.5% 34.0% 84.1% -31.9% --- -35.3% -8.1% 0.0% 7.5% -20.3% Encinitas
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Vacancy 10.8% 23.0% 11.1% 10.5% 25.8% 17.0% 18.8% 2.3% 12.7% 20.9% 18.6% 15.2% 18.6% 12.4% 18.6% 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% 17.1% 16.2% Y/Y % Change --- 113.0% -51.7% -5.4% 145.7% -34.1% 10.6% -87.8% 452.2% 64.6% -11.0% -18.3% 22.4% -33.3% --- -33.3% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 3.4% Village
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Vacancy 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.1% Y/Y % Change --- 1.5% 11.0% -18.2% -15.0% 4.8% 2.3% 7.1% 3.7% -4.4% -12.1% -8.6% 17.2% -12.4% --- 8.6% -2.0% 1.5% -4.7% -4.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Class A
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Class A: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 72 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 67 of 142
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I I I I I I I I I I I I
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 221 221 221 221 221 221 221 224 224 229 229 229 243 243 243 243 243 243 235 229 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 13 0 --- 0 0 0 4 2 Net Absorption T 1 0 5 -2 -5 3 -2 -3 6 10 3 -2 3 7 --- 0 -3 2 4 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 3.9% 4.0% 1.8% 2.7% 5.0% 3.8% 4.8% 7.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 6.1% 3.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 3.0% 4.1% Vacant SF 9 9 4 6 11 8 11 17 11 6 3 5 15 8 6 5 8 6 7 9
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $26.02 $21.54 $20.00 $23.55 $23.77 $21.60 $22.88 $27.87 $31.98 $35.39 $32.88 $32.19 $18.56 $34.94 $34.30 $35.51 $34.94 $35.90 $30.79 $28.21 % Change -12.0% -17.2% -7.1% 17.8% 0.9% -9.1% 5.9% 21.8% 14.7% 10.7% -7.1% -2.1% -42.3% 88.3% --- 3.5% -1.6% 2.7% 1.8% 4.0% Olde Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -7 10 5 5 4 -4 0 10 -1 2 2 0 0 -8 --- -4 0 4 -1 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 40.3% 27.7% 21.8% 15.8% 11.4% 16.4% 16.5% 3.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 4.3% 9.7% 9.7% 4.3% 2.4% 6.4% Vacant SF 33 22 18 13 9 13 13 3 3 2 0 0 0 8 3 8 8 3 2 5 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $36.38 $35.67 $34.46 $30.91 $18.84 $19.23 $27.65 $26.89 $24.89 $25.41 $35.52 --- --- $30.51 --- $30.51 $30.51 $30.51 $30.48 $26.12 % Change 50.5% -2.0% -3.4% -10.3% -39.0% 2.1% 43.8% -2.7% -7.4% 2.1% 39.8% --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% -0.1% South Beach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 67 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 Net Deliveries R 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 60 0 3 4 2 4 0 -5 -1 1 2 -5 15 --- 0 -3 1 2 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 9.9% 10.1% Vacant SF 11 24 24 21 18 16 11 11 16 17 16 14 19 4 1 1 4 3 14 14 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 --- --- --- --- --- $41.93 $40.32 $41.24 $41.24 $40.32 $33.00 $41.13 $32.07 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- -3.8% --- 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% --- 4.5% Industrial Corridor
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,178 1,178 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,257 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,306 1,296 1,277 Net Deliveries R 0 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 10 5 Net Absorption T 71 -5 20 69 47 -13 -6 -20 -11 14 75 23 -43 37 --- -21 5 -4 21 10 Total Vacancy Rate T 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.1% Vacant SF 316 320 380 311 264 277 283 303 314 300 274 251 294 257 242 262 257 261 275 282 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.78 $32.60 $30.30 $29.56 $29.42 $30.37 $31.41 $31.92 $31.56 $31.71 $31.81 $33.07 $33.69 $34.41 $33.96 $34.44 $34.41 $34.39 $32.94 $31.94 % Change -4.7% -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% --- 1.4% -0.1% -0.1% 1.7% 1.5% Source: Costar
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Deliveries
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
-60
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
Class B
21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Performance (Sub) Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group 73 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 68 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 16,878 17,183 17,294 17,349 17,291 17,407 17,462 17,664 17,874 17,886 17,910 18,070 18,210 18,248 18,203 18,263 18,248 18,248 18,065 17,802 Net Deliveries R 15,546 306 111 55 -57 115 55 202 211 11 25 160 140 38 --- 60 -15 0 75 90 Net Absorption T 12,834 -295 504 340 -48 463 362 478 -132 -79 255 214 -167 70 --- 16 169 18 59 142 Total Vacancy Rate T 16.5% 19.7% 17.3% 15.6% 15.6% 13.5% 11.7% 10.0% 11.8% 12.3% 11.0% 10.6% 12.2% 12.0% 12.8% 13.0% 12.0% 11.9% 11.6% 12.1% Vacant SF 2,785 3,385 2,992 2,706 2,697 2,350 2,043 1,766 2,109 2,200 1,970 1,915 2,222 2,190 2,330 2,374 2,190 2,172 2,099 2,146 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $31.91 $27.50 $26.32 $26.62 $26.66 $26.67 $28.01 $29.00 $30.89 $30.46 $30.72 $31.21 $32.77 $34.19 $33.39 $33.83 $34.19 $34.64 $31.87 $30.06 % Change -10.8% -13.8% -4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 5.0% 3.5% 6.5% -1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 5.0% 4.3% --- 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.5% Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 4,507 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,743 4,975 5,011 5,011 5,066 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,080 5,049 4,896 Net Deliveries R 119 159 0 0 0 0 0 77 232 36 0 55 13 0 --- 0 0 0 21 41 Net Absorption T -55 107 -19 131 19 177 140 58 -66 -1 30 177 113 -25 --- 20 15 66 59 62 Total Vacancy Rate T 21.4% 21.8% 22.2% 19.4% 19.0% 15.2% 12.2% 12.4% 17.8% 18.4% 17.8% 15.2% 13.2% 13.7% 14.4% 14.0% 13.7% 12.4% 15.7% 15.5% Vacant SF 964 1,017 1,036 905 887 709 569 588 886 922 892 770 671 696 731 711 696 630 790 759 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.30 $26.02 $23.82 $23.89 $22.90 $23.35 $26.22 $27.02 $28.49 $28.71 $29.48 $30.26 $31.70 $32.01 $31.85 $32.05 $32.01 $32.16 $30.43 $28.01 % Change 0.0% -11.2% -8.5% 0.3% -4.1% 2.0% 12.3% 3.1% 5.4% 0.8% 2.7% 2.6% 4.8% 1.0% --- 0.6% -0.1% 0.5% 2.4% 3.0% Oceanside
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 989 1,015 1,095 1,106 1,106 1,163 1,185 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,300 1,294 1,294 1,294 1,294 1,294 1,239 1,205 Net Deliveries R 141 26 80 11 0 57 22 16 0 0 0 0 100 -6 --- 0 0 0 19 19 Net Absorption T 96 -7 102 19 -3 64 23 46 24 0 23 2 68 40 --- 25 0 -22 27 29 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.0% 19.8% 16.4% 15.5% 15.8% 14.5% 14.1% 11.4% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5% 7.3% 9.2% 5.7% 7.6% 5.7% 5.7% 7.4% 7.8% 10.4% Vacant SF 168 201 180 171 175 169 167 137 113 113 90 88 120 74 98 74 74 96 97 124 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.72 $26.59 $25.56 $22.71 $25.00 $20.28 $20.55 $22.11 $22.29 $24.00 $23.49 $22.79 $24.74 $25.56 $25.54 $25.44 $25.56 $25.34 $24.12 $23.08 % Change 4.4% -13.4% -3.9% -11.2% 10.1% -18.9% 1.3% 7.6% 0.8% 7.7% -2.1% -3.0% 8.6% 3.3% --- -0.4% 0.5% -0.9% 2.8% 1.2% San Marcos
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 694 751 759 759 757 757 757 787 787 847 863 863 863 863 863 863 863 863 860 815 Net Deliveries R 103 57 7 0 -1 0 0 30 0 60 16 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 15 10 Net Absorption T 47 -20 37 4 -28 -1 44 40 32 44 32 29 -12 -18 --- -16 -6 8 15 16 Total Vacancy Rate T 13.6% 22.9% 18.8% 18.3% 21.9% 22.0% 16.2% 14.3% 10.2% 11.4% 9.3% 5.9% 7.3% 9.4% 6.9% 8.7% 9.4% 8.5% 8.7% 12.8% Vacant SF 94 172 143 139 166 167 123 113 80 97 80 51 63 81 60 75 81 73 74 102 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $31.33 $28.46 $28.02 $27.19 $25.93 $25.40 $26.80 $27.53 $28.42 $26.13 $27.20 $28.08 $27.46 $24.80 $27.53 $28.41 $24.80 $26.34 $26.73 $26.78 % Change 28.7% -9.2% -1.5% -3.0% -4.6% -2.0% 5.5% 2.7% 3.2% -8.1% 4.1% 3.2% -2.2% -9.7% --- 3.2% -12.7% 6.2% -2.7% -0.9% Encinitas
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,354 1,354 1,354 1,354 1,358 1,358 1,392 1,392 1,395 1,399 1,399 1,423 1,423 1,483 1,423 1,483 1,483 1,483 1,426 1,402 Net Deliveries R 22 0 0 0 4 0 34 0 4 4 0 24 0 60 --- 60 0 0 18 13 Net Absorption T -55 14 37 30 1 18 16 15 24 -32 17 27 -37 65 --- 49 15 0 8 11 Total Vacancy Rate T 11.1% 10.1% 7.4% 5.2% 5.4% 4.1% 5.3% 4.2% 2.7% 5.3% 4.1% 3.8% 6.4% 5.8% 6.3% 6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.1% 4.7% Vacant SF 150 137 100 70 73 56 74 58 38 74 57 54 91 86 90 101 86 86 73 66 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.08 $30.05 $30.85 $31.41 $32.20 $32.46 $32.49 $35.99 $37.09 $38.98 $37.81 $40.34 $42.30 $42.60 $42.91 $42.05 $42.60 $42.46 $40.41 $37.23 % Change -7.5% -9.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 10.8% 3.1% 5.1% -3.0% 6.7% 4.9% 0.7% --- -2.0% 1.3% -0.3% 2.8% 3.1% Vista
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 1,097 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,160 1,167 1,167 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,178 1,171 Net Deliveries R 62 63 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 12 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 2 2 Net Absorption T -43 7 22 31 -3 -52 39 96 -32 -6 44 -87 -34 4 --- -8 2 -2 -16 -3 Total Vacancy Rate T 17.3% 21.2% 19.3% 16.6% 16.9% 21.4% 18.0% 10.2% 12.9% 14.3% 10.6% 18.0% 20.9% 20.6% 20.1% 20.8% 20.6% 20.8% 16.9% 16.4% Vacant SF 190 246 224 193 196 248 209 119 151 169 125 212 246 243 237 245 243 245 199 192 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.99 $28.32 $28.62 $26.72 $25.52 $23.26 $22.26 $23.17 $22.93 $21.68 $21.09 $21.17 $25.68 $26.88 $26.51 $27.67 $26.88 $26.64 $23.30 $23.36 % Change 19.9% -5.6% 1.1% -6.6% -4.5% -8.9% -4.3% 4.1% -1.0% -5.5% -2.7% 0.4% 21.3% 4.7% --- 4.4% -2.9% -0.9% 3.2% 0.1% Source: Costar
Source: CoStar
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Delliveries
Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad
Class B
21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Performance (City) Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 74 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 69 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $31.9 $27.5 $26.3 $26.6 $26.7 $26.7 $28.0 $29.0 $30.9 $30.5 $30.7 $31.2 $32.8 $34.2 $33.4 $33.8 $34.2 $34.6 $31.9 $30.1 Y/Y % Change --- -13.8% -4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 5.0% 3.5% 6.5% -1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 5.0% 4.3% --- 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 2.1% 5.1% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $29.3 $26.0 $23.8 $23.9 $22.9 $23.4 $26.2 $27.0 $28.5 $28.7 $29.5 $30.3 $31.7 $32.0 $31.9 $32.1 $32.0 $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 Y/Y % Change --- -11.2% -8.5% 0.3% -4.1% 2.0% 12.3% 3.1% 5.4% 0.8% 2.7% 2.6% 4.8% 1.0% --- 0.6% -0.1% 0.5% 2.4% 6.0% Oceanside
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.7 $26.6 $25.6 $22.7 $25.0 $20.3 $20.6 $22.1 $22.3 $24.0 $23.5 $22.8 $24.7 $25.6 $25.5 $25.4 $25.6 $25.3 $24.1 $23.1 Y/Y % Change --- -13.4% -3.9% -11.2% 10.1% -18.9% 1.3% 7.6% 0.8% 7.7% -2.1% -3.0% 8.6% 3.3% --- -0.4% 0.5% -0.9% 2.8% 2.4% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $31.3 $28.5 $28.0 $27.2 $25.9 $25.4 $26.8 $27.5 $28.4 $26.1 $27.2 $28.1 $27.5 $24.8 $27.5 $28.4 $24.8 $26.3 $26.7 $26.8 Y/Y % Change --- -9.2% -1.5% -3.0% -4.6% -2.0% 5.5% 2.7% 3.2% -8.1% 4.1% 3.2% -2.2% -9.7% --- 3.2% -12.7% 6.2% -2.7% -1.8% Encinitas
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.1 $30.1 $30.9 $31.4 $32.2 $32.5 $32.5 $36.0 $37.1 $39.0 $37.8 $40.3 $42.3 $42.6 $42.9 $42.1 $42.6 $42.5 $40.4 $37.2 Y/Y % Change --- -9.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 10.8% 3.1% 5.1% -3.0% 6.7% 4.9% 0.7% --- -2.0% 1.3% -0.3% 2.8% 6.3% Vista
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $30.0 $28.3 $28.6 $26.7 $25.5 $23.3 $22.3 $23.2 $22.9 $21.7 $21.1 $21.2 $25.7 $26.9 $26.5 $27.7 $26.9 $26.6 $23.3 $23.4 Y/Y % Change --- -5.6% 1.1% -6.6% -4.5% -8.9% -4.3% 4.1% -1.0% -5.5% -2.7% 0.4% 21.3% 4.7% --- 4.4% -2.9% -0.9% 3.2% 0.1% Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $26.0 $21.5 $20.0 $23.6 $23.8 $21.6 $22.9 $27.9 $32.0 $35.4 $32.9 $32.2 $18.6 $34.9 $34.3 $35.5 $34.9 $35.9 $30.8 $28.2 Y/Y % Change --- -17.2% -7.1% 17.8% 0.9% -9.1% 5.9% 21.8% 14.7% 10.7% -7.1% -2.1% -42.3% 88.3% --- 3.5% -1.6% 2.7% 1.8% 8.2% Olde Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $36.4 $35.7 $34.5 $30.9 $18.8 $19.2 $27.7 $26.9 $24.9 $25.4 $35.5 --- --- $30.5 --- $30.5 $30.5 $30.5 $30.5 $26.1 Y/Y % Change --- -2.0% -3.4% -10.3% -39.0% 2.1% 43.8% -2.7% -7.4% 2.1% 39.8% --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% -0.3% South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.6 $27.6 $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 --- --- --- --- --- $41.9 $40.3 $41.2 $41.2 $40.3 $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- -3.8% --- 0.0% -2.2% -18.2% --- 9.1% Industrial Corridor
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.8 $32.6 $30.3 $29.6 $29.4 $30.4 $31.4 $31.9 $31.6 $31.7 $31.8 $33.1 $33.7 $34.4 $34.0 $34.4 $34.4 $34.4 $32.9 $31.9 Y/Y % Change --- -0.5% -7.1% -2.4% -0.5% 3.2% 3.4% 1.6% -1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 1.9% 2.1% --- 1.4% -0.1% -0.1% 1.7% 3.1% Source: Costar
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
Class B
21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 75 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 70 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Vacancy 16.5% 19.7% 17.3% 15.6% 15.6% 13.5% 11.7% 10.0% 11.8% 12.3% 11.0% 10.6% 12.2% 12.0% 12.8% 13.0% 12.0% 11.9% 11.6% 12.1% Y/Y % Change --- 19.4% -12.2% -9.8% 0.0% -13.5% -13.3% -14.5% 18.0% 4.2% -10.6% -3.6% 15.1% -1.6% --- 1.6% -7.7% -0.8% 0.3% -5.1% Carlsbad
Vacancy 21.4% 21.8% 22.2% 19.4% 19.0% 15.2% 12.2% 12.4% 17.8% 18.4% 17.8% 15.2% 13.2% 13.7% 14.4% 14.0% 13.7% 12.4% 15.7% 15.5% Y/Y % Change --- 1.9% 1.8% -12.6% -2.1% -20.0% -19.7% 1.6% 43.5% 3.4% -3.3% -14.6% -13.2% 3.8% --- -2.8% -2.1% -9.5% -5.1% -6.7% Oceanside
Vacancy 17.0% 19.8% 16.4% 15.5% 15.8% 14.5% 14.1% 11.4% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5% 7.3% 9.2% 5.7% 7.6% 5.7% 5.7% 7.4% 7.8% 10.4% Y/Y % Change --- 16.5% -17.2% -5.5% 1.9% -8.2% -2.8% -19.1% -17.5% 0.0% -20.2% -2.7% 26.0% -38.0% --- -25.0% 0.0% 29.8% -9.5% -18.1% San Marcos
Vacancy 13.6% 22.9% 18.8% 18.3% 21.9% 22.0% 16.2% 14.3% 10.2% 11.4% 9.3% 5.9% 7.3% 9.4% 6.9% 8.7% 9.4% 8.5% 8.7% 12.8% Y/Y % Change --- 68.4% -17.9% -2.7% 19.7% 0.5% -26.4% -11.7% -28.7% 11.8% -18.4% -36.6% 23.7% 28.8% --- 26.1% 8.0% -9.6% -1.6% -12.5% Encinitas
Vacancy 11.1% 10.1% 7.4% 5.2% 5.4% 4.1% 5.3% 4.2% 2.7% 5.3% 4.1% 3.8% 6.4% 5.8% 6.3% 6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.1% 4.7% Y/Y % Change --- -9.0% -26.7% -29.7% 3.8% -24.1% 29.3% -20.8% -35.7% 96.3% -22.6% -7.3% 68.4% -9.4% --- 7.9% -14.7% 0.0% 16.5% 2.2% Vista
Vacancy 17.3% 21.2% 19.3% 16.6% 16.9% 21.4% 18.0% 10.2% 12.9% 14.3% 10.6% 18.0% 20.9% 20.6% 20.1% 20.8% 20.6% 20.8% 16.9% 16.4% Y/Y % Change --- 22.5% -9.0% -14.0% 1.8% 26.6% -15.9% -43.3% 26.5% 10.9% -25.9% 69.8% 16.1% -1.4% --- 3.5% -1.0% 1.0% 9.8% 4.4% Village
Vacancy 3.9% 4.0% 1.8% 2.7% 5.0% 3.8% 4.8% 7.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 6.1% 3.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 3.0% 4.1% Y/Y % Change --- 2.6% -55.0% 50.0% 85.2% -24.0% 26.3% 56.3% -37.3% -46.8% -56.0% 81.8% 205.0% -47.5% --- -8.7% 52.4% -21.9% -7.4% 3.5% Olde Carlsbad
Vacancy 40.3% 27.7% 21.8% 15.8% 11.4% 16.4% 16.5% 3.6% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 4.3% 9.7% 9.7% 4.3% 2.4% 6.4% Y/Y % Change --- -31.3% -21.3% -27.5% -27.8% 43.9% 0.6% -78.2% 19.4% -51.2% #### --- --- --- --- 125.6% 0.0% -55.7% 17.7% -9.3% South Beach
Vacancy 17.0% 17.3% 17.1% 15.1% 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 7.9% 11.3% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% 13.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 1.8% 9.9% 10.1% Y/Y % Change --- 1.8% -1.2% -11.7% -17.2% -11.2% -27.0% -2.5% 43.0% 8.0% -5.7% -14.8% 37.8% -80.7% --- 0.0% 225.0% -30.8% -25.5% -29.7% Industrial Corridor
Vacancy 26.8% 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 21.0% 22.0% 22.5% 24.1% 25.0% 23.9% 21.0% 19.2% 22.5% 19.7% 18.5% 20.1% 19.7% 20.0% 21.3% 22.1% Y/Y % Change --- 1.5% 11.0% -18.2% -15.0% 4.8% 2.3% 7.1% 3.7% -4.4% -12.1% -8.6% 17.2% -12.4% --- 8.6% -2.0% 1.5% -4.7% -4.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Class B
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Class B: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 76 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 71 of 142
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- - -- -- - - - ---- - - - - - -- - - - - -- -- - - - - .......... - - r-,. - - - - - - ---I EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 167 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -16 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 -2 Net Absorption T 5 -5 1 6 3 -6 -6 -14 3 2 2 4 -12 8 --- 2 6 1 1 -2 Total Vacancy Rate T 3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% 8.0% 2.8% 7.7% 6.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.7% 4.4% Vacant SF 7 11 10 5 1 8 14 12 9 7 5 1 13 5 12 10 5 4 6 7 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $24.23 $19.62 $20.95 $19.62 $21.31 $22.01 $27.08 $25.66 $26.86 $26.48 $29.02 $30.83 $33.90 $31.24 $32.49 $32.91 $31.24 $32.03 $30.29 $27.44 % Change -6.7% -19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3% 23.0% -5.2% 4.7% -1.4% 9.6% 6.2% 10.0% -7.8% --- 1.3% -5.1% 2.5% 3.1% 4.8% Olde Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -1 -6 1 -4 7 -1 2 0 2 -3 0 0 3 -2 --- -2 0 0 0 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% Vacant SF 1 7 6 10 3 4 2 2 0 3 2 3 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 2
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.79 $25.35 $24.00 $17.15 $17.58 $17.35 $17.35 --- $32.74 --- $33.36 $45.93 $34.58 $43.57 $41.81 $44.05 $43.57 $43.57 $39.36 $30.31 % Change --- -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0% --- --- --- --- 37.7% -24.7% 26.0% --- 5.4% -1.1% 0.0% 5.9% 9.8% South Beach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% Vacant SF 0 0 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- $41.97 $41.97 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $29.37 --- $29.37 $29.37 --- --- $29.37 $29.37 % Change --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Deliveries
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
-15
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
Class C
21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Performance (Sub) Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group 77 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 72 of 142
I I I I I
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■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 4,707 4,707 4,712 4,710 4,712 4,712 4,701 4,681 4,681 4,664 4,631 4,630 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,612 4,630 4,663 Net Deliveries R 4,432 0 5 -1 1 0 -11 -20 0 -17 -33 -2 -18 0 --- 0 0 0 -14 -10 Net Absorption T 4,073 -94 9 -25 58 -42 23 38 80 -30 25 -6 -22 -32 --- -28 -14 37 -13 9 Total Vacancy Rate T 7.7% 9.7% 9.6% 10.1% 8.9% 9.8% 9.1% 7.9% 6.2% 6.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 6.2% 5.3% 5.9% 6.2% 5.4% 5.8% 7.1% Vacant SF 362 457 452 476 419 462 428 370 290 303 245 250 254 286 244 272 286 249 268 331 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $22.44 $20.82 $20.38 $20.11 $18.73 $19.45 $19.11 $19.23 $20.27 $21.01 $22.23 $22.48 $25.28 $27.05 $26.57 $27.23 $27.05 $27.14 $23.61 $21.48 % Change -38.9% -7.2% -2.1% -1.3% -6.9% 3.8% -1.7% 0.6% 5.4% 3.7% 5.8% 1.1% 12.5% 7.0% --- 2.5% -0.7% 0.3% 5.9% 3.0% Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 374 374 374 374 374 374 374 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 363 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -16 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 -2 Net Absorption T 2 -16 -10 -2 18 4 -4 -10 0 -4 8 -3 -15 -5 --- -5 8 8 -4 -1 Total Vacancy Rate T 4.9% 9.2% 11.8% 12.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 5.1% 5.9% 10.1% 11.5% 12.2% 13.7% 11.5% 9.2% 8.0% 7.4% Vacant SF 18 34 44 46 28 24 28 22 22 26 18 21 36 41 44 49 41 33 28 27 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $26.13 $22.53 $23.27 $22.20 $19.05 $20.05 $22.69 $24.36 $26.91 $26.17 $27.74 $31.23 $33.25 $29.69 $29.62 $28.20 $29.69 $29.97 $29.62 $26.11 % Change 0.9% -13.8% 3.3% -4.6% -14.2% 5.2% 13.2% 7.4% 10.5% -2.7% 6.0% 12.6% 6.5% -10.7% --- -4.8% 5.3% 0.9% 2.0% 2.9% Oceanside
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 418 418 418 418 418 418 412 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 411 412 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 -1 Net Absorption T -9 -23 4 -2 10 -8 -11 9 18 2 -3 0 9 -1 --- -7 -5 1 1 2 Total Vacancy Rate T 7.7% 13.3% 12.3% 12.8% 10.5% 12.3% 13.7% 11.3% 6.9% 6.4% 7.1% 7.2% 5.1% 5.4% 2.5% 4.3% 5.4% 5.1% 6.2% 8.6% Vacant SF 32 56 51 54 44 51 56 46 28 26 29 30 21 22 10 18 22 21 26 35 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.23 $22.69 $22.45 $21.97 $20.76 $21.33 $20.78 $21.62 $22.80 $21.20 $24.20 $30.80 $28.07 $31.22 $28.36 $29.49 $31.22 $31.99 $27.10 $24.28 % Change 4.6% -10.1% -1.1% -2.1% -5.5% 2.7% -2.6% 4.0% 5.5% -7.0% 14.2% 27.3% -8.9% 11.2% --- 4.0% 5.9% 2.5% 6.5% 3.6% San Marcos
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 433 433 433 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 431 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -9 5 12 -1 -3 -9 9 -6 13 -1 11 -16 -11 -6 --- 3 -12 6 -5 -2 Total Vacancy Rate T 9.0% 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.6% 7.7% 5.7% 7.0% 3.9% 4.2% 1.6% 5.4% 7.9% 9.3% 7.2% 6.5% 9.3% 7.9% 5.7% 5.8% Vacant SF 39 34 22 22 24 33 25 30 17 18 7 23 34 40 31 28 40 34 24 25 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $17.43 $16.57 $16.04 $15.16 $14.99 $15.21 $15.76 $15.67 $18.44 $15.70 $17.58 $18.77 $18.12 $18.40 $17.29 $18.14 $18.40 $18.40 $17.71 $16.86 % Change 5.5% -4.9% -3.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.5% 3.6% -0.6% 17.7% -14.9% 12.0% 6.8% -3.5% 1.5% --- 4.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% Encinitas
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 279 279 282 282 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 285 284 284 284 284 284 284 285 285 Net Deliveries R 5 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 0 7 -1 10 0 -1 5 3 2 -9 6 -4 -1 --- -1 0 -5 -1 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 5.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 3.3% 1.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 4.6% 1.9% 2.2% Vacant SF 19 19 15 16 9 9 11 5 3 1 9 3 6 8 6 7 8 13 5 6 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.26 $28.69 $31.04 $34.12 $32.99 $32.39 $31.62 $32.85 $35.48 $36.06 $45.26 $43.89 $44.32 $43.03 $40.25 $40.06 $43.03 $40.75 $42.51 $37.79 % Change -12.1% -11.1% 8.2% 9.9% -3.3% -1.8% -2.4% 3.9% 8.0% 1.6% 25.5% -3.0% 1.0% -2.9% --- -0.5% 7.4% -5.3% 3.9% 2.3% Vista
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 531 531 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 540 Net Deliveries R 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -22 1 -10 -10 -3 -9 5 4 14 13 5 13 -4 -8 --- -6 -8 3 4 3 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.7% 10.5% 13.7% 15.5% 16.1% 17.7% 16.7% 16.0% 13.4% 10.9% 9.9% 7.4% 8.2% 9.7% 7.1% 8.3% 9.7% 9.1% 9.2% 12.6% Vacant SF 57 56 74 84 87 96 90 86 72 59 53 40 44 52 38 45 52 49 50 68 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $19.98 $17.90 $17.23 $16.54 $17.99 $18.26 $17.77 $17.08 $18.16 $20.77 $15.68 $16.34 $18.81 $27.52 $18.81 $28.61 $27.52 $28.13 $19.82 $18.84 % Change 7.5% -10.4% -3.7% -4.0% 8.8% 1.5% -2.7% -3.9% 6.3% 14.4% -24.5% 4.2% 15.1% 46.3% --- 52.1% -3.8% 2.2% 8.7% 5.2% Source: Costar
Source: CoStar
-60
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad
0 2
4 6
8 10
12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Delliveries
Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad
Class C
21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Performance (City) Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 78 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 73 of 142
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■ ■ ■ ■
' ' ' ' ' ' ' '
' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '
■ ■ ■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $22.4 $20.8 $20.4 $20.1 $18.7 $19.5 $19.1 $19.2 $20.3 $21.0 $22.2 $22.5 $25.3 $27.1 $26.6 $27.2 $27.1 $27.1 $23.6 $21.5 Y/Y % Change --- -7.2% -2.1% -1.3% -6.9% 3.8% -1.7% 0.6% 5.4% 3.7% 5.8% 1.1% 12.5% 7.0% --- 2.5% -0.7% 0.3% 5.9% 6.1% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $26.1 $22.5 $23.3 $22.2 $19.1 $20.1 $22.7 $24.4 $26.9 $26.2 $27.7 $31.2 $33.3 $29.7 $29.6 $28.2 $29.7 $30.0 $29.6 $26.1 Y/Y % Change --- -13.8% 3.3% -4.6% -14.2% 5.2% 13.2% 7.4% 10.5% -2.7% 6.0% 12.6% 6.5% -10.7% --- -4.8% 5.3% 0.9% 2.0% 6.0% Oceanside
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.2 $22.7 $22.5 $22.0 $20.8 $21.3 $20.8 $21.6 $22.8 $21.2 $24.2 $30.8 $28.1 $31.2 $28.4 $29.5 $31.2 $32.0 $27.1 $24.3 Y/Y % Change --- -10.1% -1.1% -2.1% -5.5% 2.7% -2.6% 4.0% 5.5% -7.0% 14.2% 27.3% -8.9% 11.2% --- 4.0% 5.9% 2.5% 6.5% 7.3% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $17.4 $16.6 $16.0 $15.2 $15.0 $15.2 $15.8 $15.7 $18.4 $15.7 $17.6 $18.8 $18.1 $18.4 $17.3 $18.1 $18.4 $18.4 $17.7 $16.9 Y/Y % Change --- -4.9% -3.2% -5.5% -1.1% 1.5% 3.6% -0.6% 17.7% -14.9% 12.0% 6.8% -3.5% 1.5% --- 4.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% Encinitas
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $32.3 $28.7 $31.0 $34.1 $33.0 $32.4 $31.6 $32.9 $35.5 $36.1 $45.3 $43.9 $44.3 $43.0 $40.3 $40.1 $43.0 $40.8 $42.5 $37.8 Y/Y % Change --- -11.1% 8.2% 9.9% -3.3% -1.8% -2.4% 3.9% 8.0% 1.6% 25.5% -3.0% 1.0% -2.9% --- -0.5% 7.4% -5.3% 3.9% 4.7% Vista
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $20.0 $17.9 $17.2 $16.5 $18.0 $18.3 $17.8 $17.1 $18.2 $20.8 $15.7 $16.3 $18.8 $27.5 $18.8 $28.6 $27.5 $28.1 $19.8 $18.8 Y/Y % Change --- -10.4% -3.7% -4.0% 8.8% 1.5% -2.7% -3.9% 6.3% 14.4% -24.5% 4.2% 15.1% 46.3% --- 52.1% -3.8% 2.2% 8.7% 10.7% Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $24.2 $19.6 $21.0 $19.6 $21.3 $22.0 $27.1 $25.7 $26.9 $26.5 $29.0 $30.8 $33.9 $31.2 $32.5 $32.9 $31.2 $32.0 $30.3 $27.4 Y/Y % Change --- -19.0% 6.8% -6.3% 8.6% 3.3% 23.0% -5.2% 4.7% -1.4% 9.6% 6.2% 10.0% -7.8% --- 1.3% -5.1% 2.5% 3.1% 9.7% Olde Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.8 $25.4 $24.0 $17.2 $17.6 $17.4 $17.4 --- $32.7 --- $33.4 $45.9 $34.6 $43.6 $41.8 $44.1 $43.6 $43.6 $39.4 $30.3 Y/Y % Change --- -1.7% -5.3% -28.5% 2.5% -1.3% 0.0% --- --- --- --- 37.7% -24.7% 26.0% --- 5.4% -1.1% 0.0% 5.9% 20.5% South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- $42.0 $42.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $29.4 --- $29.4 $29.4 --- --- $29.4 $29.4 Y/Y % Change --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
Class C
21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 79 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 74 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Vacancy 7.7% 9.7% 9.6% 10.1% 8.9% 9.8% 9.1% 7.9% 6.2% 6.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 6.2% 5.3% 5.9% 6.2% 5.4% 5.8% 7.1% Y/Y % Change --- 26.0% -1.0% 5.2% -11.9% 10.1% -7.1% -13.2% -21.5% 4.8% -18.5% 1.9% 1.9% 12.7% --- 11.3% 5.1% -12.9% 0.0% -9.3% Carlsbad
Vacancy 4.9% 9.2% 11.8% 12.3% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 7.2% 5.1% 5.9% 10.1% 11.5% 12.2% 13.7% 11.5% 9.2% 8.0% 7.4% Y/Y % Change --- 87.8% 28.3% 4.2% -39.0% -13.3% 15.4% -18.7% 1.6% 16.1% -29.2% 15.7% 71.2% 13.9% --- 12.3% -16.1% -20.0% 13.2% -1.3% Oceanside
Vacancy 7.7% 13.3% 12.3% 12.8% 10.5% 12.3% 13.7% 11.3% 6.9% 6.4% 7.1% 7.2% 5.1% 5.4% 2.5% 4.3% 5.4% 5.1% 6.2% 8.6% Y/Y % Change --- 72.7% -7.5% 4.1% -18.0% 17.1% 11.4% -17.5% -38.9% -7.2% 10.9% 1.4% -29.2% 5.9% --- 72.0% 25.6% -5.6% -4.8% -15.9% San Marcos
Vacancy 9.0% 7.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.6% 7.7% 5.7% 7.0% 3.9% 4.2% 1.6% 5.4% 7.9% 9.3% 7.2% 6.5% 9.3% 7.9% 5.7% 5.8% Y/Y % Change --- -13.3% -35.9% 0.0% 12.0% 37.5% -26.0% 22.8% -44.3% 7.7% -61.9% 237.5% 46.3% 17.7% --- -9.7% 43.1% -15.1% 19.0% 13.2% Encinitas
Vacancy 6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 5.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 3.3% 1.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 4.6% 1.9% 2.2% Y/Y % Change --- -1.5% -22.4% 5.8% -43.6% 3.2% 15.6% -51.4% -50.0% -77.8% 1550.0% -63.6% 83.3% 22.7% --- 23.8% 3.8% 70.4% 24.6% -13.3% Vista
Vacancy 10.7% 10.5% 13.7% 15.5% 16.1% 17.7% 16.7% 16.0% 13.4% 10.9% 9.9% 7.4% 8.2% 9.7% 7.1% 8.3% 9.7% 9.1% 9.2% 12.6% Y/Y % Change --- -1.9% 30.5% 13.1% 3.9% 9.9% -5.6% -4.2% -16.3% -18.7% -9.2% -25.3% 10.8% 18.3% --- 16.9% 16.9% -6.2% -6.3% -8.9% Village
Vacancy 3.7% 6.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.7% 4.3% 7.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% 8.0% 2.8% 7.7% 6.3% 2.8% 2.3% 3.7% 4.4% Y/Y % Change --- 73.0% -9.4% -55.2% -73.1% 514.3% 83.7% -7.6% -23.3% -23.2% -32.6% -79.3% 1233.3% -65.0% --- -18.2% -55.6% -17.9% -12.9% 1.5% Olde Carlsbad
Vacancy 1.6% 9.3% 8.2% 13.3% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% Y/Y % Change --- 481.3% -11.8% 62.2% -69.2% 26.8% -50.0% -15.4% -100.0% --- -14.3% 6.7% -100.0% --- --- --- 16.7% 0.0% --- -26.8% South Beach
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Vacancy 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% Y/Y % Change --- --- --- 0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% --- --- --- -66.4% -100.0% --- --- --- --- --- -100.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Class C
0.0%5.0%10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Class C: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 80 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 75 of 142
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OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% Vacant SF 0 0 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- $41.97 $41.97 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $29.37 --- $29.37 $29.37 --- --- $29.37 $29.37 % Change --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Deliveries
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 1
2 3
4 5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
Creative
21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Performance (Sub) Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group 81 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 76 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 402 402 410 410 413 413 413 413 417 417 417 419 419 419 419 419 419 419 418 416 Net Deliveries R 397 0 8 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 1 Net Absorption T 353 -20 -1 13 -47 14 26 22 -29 -23 20 23 8 25 --- 21 -3 0 10 4 Total Vacancy Rate T 11.0% 15.9% 17.8% 14.6% 26.6% 23.2% 16.9% 11.5% 19.1% 24.7% 20.0% 15.0% 13.2% 7.3% 11.6% 6.6% 7.3% 7.2% 16.0% 17.8% Vacant SF 44 64 73 60 110 96 70 48 80 103 83 63 55 31 49 28 31 30 67 74 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $28.90 $26.27 $22.15 $25.14 $23.11 $25.32 $26.55 $29.76 $32.70 $27.28 $31.54 $34.16 $36.43 $43.16 $42.22 $42.46 $43.16 $47.99 $34.51 $31.00 % Change --- -9.1% -15.7% 13.5% -8.1% 9.6% 4.9% 12.1% 9.9% -16.6% 15.6% 8.3% 6.6% 18.5% --- 0.6% 1.6% 11.2% 5.7% 5.6% Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -4 -23 15 -6 -48 17 32 12 -25 -38 26 29 9 13 --- 8 3 0 8 3 Total Vacancy Rate T 14.3% 28.1% 19.0% 22.4% 51.6% 41.0% 21.6% 14.1% 29.3% 52.3% 36.6% 18.9% 13.6% 5.6% 12.4% 7.7% 5.6% 5.6% 25.4% 28.5% Vacant SF 23 46 31 37 84 67 35 23 48 85 60 31 22 9 20 13 9 9 41 46 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $28.17 $21.47 $19.20 $21.50 $22.43 $22.37 $23.38 $25.48 $26.69 $27.26 $28.05 $28.22 $27.26 $28.07 $29.35 $29.05 $28.07 $29.01 $27.77 $25.92 % Change -5.2% -23.8% -10.6% 12.0% 4.3% -0.3% 4.5% 9.0% 4.7% 2.1% 2.9% 0.6% -3.4% 3.0% --- -1.0% -3.4% 3.3% 1.0% 2.7% Oceanside
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 1 -6 4 -5 6 3 -2 0 -2 4 -2 -1 1 --- 0 -1 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 15.5% 10.6% 41.7% 21.5% 46.6% 15.1% 0.0% 9.9% 11.2% 20.1% 0.0% 10.6% 16.7% 10.8% 6.4% 6.4% 10.8% 10.8% 11.6% 14.1% Vacant SF 3 2 8 4 9 3 0 2 2 4 0 2 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 3
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $21.32 $21.32 $18.92 $17.40 $17.16 $18.32 $18.32 $19.52 $18.30 $20.73 $22.52 --- $35.23 $41.97 $35.69 $37.17 $41.97 $41.97 $30.11 $23.56 % Change --- 0.0% -11.3% -8.0% -1.4% 6.8% 0.0% 6.6% -6.2% 13.3% 8.6% --- --- 19.1% --- 4.1% 12.9% 0.0% 18.1% 9.2% San Marcos
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Encinitas
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 1 Net Absorption T -3 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -2 --- 2 -2 -2 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 60.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 22.3% 20.9% 2.8% 22.3% 36.8% 5.1% 4.7% Vacant SF 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 3 4 1 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $21.00 $23.52 $23.36 $18.00 $23.36 $20.44 --- --- $27.00 $27.00 --- --- $48.92 $49.69 $48.92 $28.52 $49.69 $49.69 $41.87 $32.74 % Change --- 12.0% -0.7% -22.9% 29.8% -12.5% --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- 1.6% --- -41.7% 74.2% 0.0% 13.0% 10.7% Vista
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 3 0 -2 --- 2 -2 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 1.4% 0.0% 9.7% 10.1% 0.0% 9.7% 9.7% 5.9% 3.0% Vacant SF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 2 0 2 2 1 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $11.88 $18.96 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $15.42 $15.42 % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 59.6% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
Source: CoStar
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad
0 1
1 2
2 3
3 4
4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Delliveries
Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad
Creative
21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Performance (City) Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 82 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 77 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $28.9 $26.3 $22.2 $25.1 $23.1 $25.3 $26.6 $29.8 $32.7 $27.3 $31.5 $34.2 $36.4 $43.2 $42.2 $42.5 $43.2 $48.0 $34.5 $31.0 Y/Y % Change --- -9.1% -15.7% 13.5% -8.1% 9.6% 4.9% 12.1% 9.9% -16.6% 15.6% 8.3% 6.6% 18.5% --- 0.6% 1.6% 11.2% 5.7% 11.4% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $28.2 $21.5 $19.2 $21.5 $22.4 $22.4 $23.4 $25.5 $26.7 $27.3 $28.1 $28.2 $27.3 $28.1 $29.4 $29.1 $28.1 $29.0 $27.8 $25.9 Y/Y % Change --- -23.8% -10.6% 12.0% 4.3% -0.3% 4.5% 9.0% 4.7% 2.1% 2.9% 0.6% -3.4% 3.0% --- -1.0% -3.4% 3.3% 1.0% 5.5% Oceanside
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $21.3 $21.3 $18.9 $17.4 $17.2 $18.3 $18.3 $19.5 $18.3 $20.7 $22.5 --- $35.2 $42.0 $35.7 $37.2 $42.0 $42.0 $30.1 $23.6 Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% -11.3% -8.0% -1.4% 6.8% 0.0% 6.6% -6.2% 13.3% 8.6% --- --- 19.1% --- 4.1% 12.9% 0.0% 18.1% 19.3% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Encinitas
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $21.0 $23.5 $23.4 $18.0 $23.4 $20.4 --- --- $27.0 $27.0 --- --- $48.9 $49.7 $48.9 $28.5 $49.7 $49.7 $41.9 $32.7 Y/Y % Change --- 12.0% -0.7% -22.9% 29.8% -12.5% --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- 1.6% --- -41.7% 74.2% 0.0% 13.0% 22.5% Vista
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $11.9 $19.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $15.4 $15.4 Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 59.6% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- $42.0 $42.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $29.4 --- $29.4 $29.4 --- --- $29.4 $29.4 Y/Y % Change --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
Creative
21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 83 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 78 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Vacancy 11.0% 15.9% 17.8% 14.6% 26.6% 23.2% 16.9% 11.5% 19.1% 24.7% 20.0% 15.0% 13.2% 7.3% 11.6% 6.6% 7.3% 7.2% 16.0% 17.8% Y/Y % Change --- 44.5% 11.9% -18.0% 82.2% -12.8% -27.2% -32.0% 66.1% 29.3% -19.0% -25.0% -12.0% -44.7% --- -43.1% 10.6% -1.4% -17.5% -12.9% Carlsbad
Vacancy 14.3% 28.1% 19.0% 22.4% 51.6% 41.0% 21.6% 14.1% 29.3% 52.3% 36.6% 18.9% 13.6% 5.6% 12.4% 7.7% 5.6% 5.6% 25.4% 28.5% Y/Y % Change --- 96.5% -32.4% 17.9% 130.4% -20.5% -47.3% -34.7% 107.8% 78.5% -30.0% -48.4% -28.0% -58.8% --- -37.9% -27.3% 0.0% -28.2% -24.2% Oceanside
Vacancy 15.5% 10.6% 41.7% 21.5% 46.6% 15.1% 0.0% 9.9% 11.2% 20.1% 0.0% 10.6% 16.7% 10.8% 6.4% 6.4% 10.8% 10.8% 11.6% 14.1% Y/Y % Change --- -31.6% 293.4% -48.4% 116.7% -67.6% -100.0% --- 13.1% 79.5% -100.0% --- 57.5% -35.3% --- 0.0% 68.8% 0.0% -0.7% -12.9% San Marcos
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Encinitas
Vacancy 60.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 22.3% 20.9% 2.8% 22.3% 36.8% 5.1% 4.7% Y/Y % Change --- -100.0% --- -100.0% --- -100.0% --- --- --- -100.0% --- --- --- 643.3% --- -86.6% 696.4% 65.0% 4.5% --- Vista
Vacancy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 1.4% 0.0% 9.7% 10.1% 0.0% 9.7% 9.7% 5.9% 3.0% Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- -92.4% -100.0% --- --- -100.0% --- 0.0% --- --- Village
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Industrial Corridor
Vacancy 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% Y/Y % Change --- --- --- 0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% --- --- --- -66.4% -100.0% --- --- --- --- --- -100.0%
0.0%5.0%10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Creative
0.0%5.0%10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Creative: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 84 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 79 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 96 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 1 1 Net Absorption T -2 2 1 0 -1 0 0 -6 6 4 3 -2 -2 1 --- 0 -1 0 1 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 4.5% 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 8.8% 2.1% 3.5% 0.0% 2.3% 4.6% 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 3.6% 3.6% 2.8% 3.3% Vacant SF 4 3 1 1 2 3 3 8 2 3 0 2 5 4 2 2 4 4 3 3
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.94 $23.62 $22.22 $25.00 $22.07 $23.05 $21.36 $26.39 $35.00 $38.79 $33.52 --- $28.52 --- --- --- --- $33.52 $33.61 $28.59 % Change -10.7% -8.9% -5.9% 12.5% -11.7% 4.4% -7.3% 23.5% 32.6% 10.8% -13.6% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 6 5 4 6 -5 0 4 3 -1 -1 0 2 0 --- 0 0 0 0 1 Total Vacancy Rate T 44.7% 33.5% 22.8% 15.1% 4.0% 13.1% 13.0% 5.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.5% 4.8% Vacant SF 22 17 11 8 2 7 7 3 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $41.01 $41.82 $40.37 $41.65 $27.12 $21.00 $37.05 $41.14 $33.76 --- --- $43.30 $47.30 $50.30 $52.77 $50.30 $50.30 $50.30 $46.97 $37.62 % Change --- 2.0% -3.5% 3.2% -34.9% -22.6% 76.4% 11.0% -17.9% --- --- --- 9.2% 6.3% --- -4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 1.9% South Beach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -11 6 1 1 3 -2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 --- 0 -3 1 -1 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 18.1% 8.3% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 1.8% 1.8% 5.8% 4.0% 1.2% 0.9% Vacant SF 11 5 4 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 1 4 3 1 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.60 $27.60 $27.60 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 $26.04 --- --- --- --- --- --- $32.05 $30.00 $30.00 $32.05 $33.00 $32.05 $27.54 % Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% 6.8% 3.0% --- 2.1% Industrial Corridor
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 -4 0 -1 4 0 0 1 0 0 -4 3 1 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% Vacant SF 0 0 4 4 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- $41.97 $41.97 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $29.37 --- $29.37 $29.37 --- --- $29.37 $29.37 % Change --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
0 20
40 60
80 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Deliveries
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
-15
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
Medical
21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Performance (Sub) Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group 85 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 80 of 142
I I I
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
■ ■ ■
■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 5,832 6,023 6,114 6,169 6,290 6,405 6,422 6,439 6,414 6,661 6,736 6,736 6,893 6,931 6,886 6,946 6,931 6,931 6,791 6,593 Net Deliveries R --- 191 92 55 121 115 17 17 -25 246 75 0 157 38 --- 60 -15 0 103 76 Net Absorption T --- 29 127 23 167 100 34 208 67 226 116 74 -53 35 --- 13 35 0 80 97 Total Vacancy Rate T 12.1% 14.4% 13.6% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.7% 9.7% 8.3% 8.3% 7.6% 6.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.5% 10.1% 9.4% 9.4% 8.2% 9.8% Vacant SF 706 867 832 864 818 833 816 625 532 553 512 438 648 652 654 702 652 652 560 642 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.63 $31.52 $32.20 $31.64 $29.25 $27.88 $29.70 $29.74 $30.06 $31.89 $32.10 $32.27 $33.20 $32.54 $33.47 $34.31 $32.54 $33.27 $32.40 $30.86 % Change --- -6.3% 2.2% -1.7% -7.6% -4.7% 6.5% 0.1% 1.1% 6.1% 0.7% 0.5% 2.9% -2.0% --- 2.5% -5.2% 2.2% 1.6% 0.3% Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 486 531 531 531 531 531 531 531 531 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 566 548 Net Deliveries R 69 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 7 4 Net Absorption T 46 47 -1 18 15 -55 10 46 13 33 3 5 -22 2 --- 12 -6 -14 4 5 Total Vacancy Rate T 16.5% 14.6% 14.8% 11.5% 8.7% 19.0% 17.1% 8.4% 6.0% 6.1% 5.5% 4.6% 8.4% 8.0% 9.2% 7.0% 8.0% 10.5% 6.5% 9.2% Vacant SF 80 77 79 61 46 101 91 45 32 35 31 26 48 45 52 40 45 59 37 50 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $37.31 $36.20 $36.96 $37.79 $25.81 $28.94 $37.71 $37.49 $38.87 $39.45 $37.41 $37.85 $43.66 $41.47 $43.95 $43.38 $41.47 $42.77 $39.97 $36.87 % Change -2.5% -3.0% 2.1% 2.2% -31.7% 12.1% 30.3% -0.6% 3.7% 1.5% -5.2% 1.2% 15.4% -5.0% --- -1.3% -4.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.9% Oceanside
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 636 662 742 753 753 810 832 836 836 836 836 836 921 914 914 914 914 914 868 841 Net Deliveries R 175 26 80 11 0 57 22 4 0 0 0 0 85 -6 --- 0 0 0 16 16 Net Absorption T 81 -1 91 26 56 57 13 18 0 38 -16 18 53 30 --- 27 -15 -22 25 27 Total Vacancy Rate T 25.0% 28.1% 23.6% 21.2% 13.8% 12.9% 13.6% 11.8% 11.8% 7.2% 9.1% 7.0% 9.8% 5.9% 7.2% 4.3% 5.9% 8.3% 7.8% 10.3% Vacant SF 159 186 175 160 104 105 113 99 99 60 76 58 90 54 66 39 54 76 68 86 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.76 $30.36 $30.82 $26.37 $29.47 $23.23 $24.46 $26.30 $26.67 $26.65 $27.69 $28.41 $32.90 $31.80 $32.33 $32.02 $31.80 $30.77 $29.49 $27.76 % Change -1.9% -10.1% 1.5% -14.4% 11.8% -21.2% 5.3% 7.5% 1.4% -0.1% 3.9% 2.6% 15.8% -3.3% --- -1.0% -0.7% -3.2% 3.6% 1.9% San Marcos
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 729 786 786 786 857 857 857 857 857 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 917 887 Net Deliveries R 75 57 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 12 13 Net Absorption T 30 -22 19 -27 69 12 17 3 43 39 21 32 -14 -2 --- 1 2 7 15 22 Total Vacancy Rate T 9.7% 19.1% 16.7% 20.1% 18.7% 17.3% 15.3% 15.0% 10.0% 11.6% 9.3% 5.8% 7.3% 7.5% 7.8% 7.7% 7.5% 6.7% 8.3% 11.8% Vacant SF 71 150 131 158 160 148 131 129 86 106 85 53 67 69 72 71 69 61 76 103 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.20 $29.92 $29.99 $29.46 $27.32 $27.96 $29.41 $29.39 $30.00 $27.95 $28.77 $31.33 $30.81 $26.41 $31.03 $31.14 $26.41 $28.03 $29.05 $28.94 % Change 32.3% -9.9% 0.2% -1.8% -7.3% 2.3% 5.2% -0.1% 2.1% -6.8% 2.9% 8.9% -1.7% -14.3% --- 0.4% -15.2% 6.1% -2.5% -1.1% Encinitas
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 586 650 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 658 Net Deliveries R 82 63 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 5 -4 32 11 -15 7 5 79 -7 4 13 2 -21 -3 --- -7 -9 -5 -1 6 Total Vacancy Rate T 16.9% 25.6% 21.7% 20.0% 22.3% 21.2% 20.5% 8.5% 9.6% 9.0% 7.1% 6.8% 10.0% 10.4% 7.9% 9.0% 10.4% 11.2% 8.7% 12.5% Vacant SF 99 166 143 132 147 140 135 56 63 59 47 45 66 68 52 59 68 74 57 83 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.25 $33.31 $33.56 $30.26 $28.81 $27.92 $28.14 $25.36 $26.35 $27.07 $27.22 $28.88 $31.85 $33.90 $33.16 $35.09 $33.90 $32.99 $29.78 $28.55 % Change 23.5% -2.7% 0.8% -9.8% -4.8% -3.1% 0.8% -9.9% 3.9% 2.7% 0.6% 6.1% 10.3% 6.4% --- 5.8% -3.4% -2.7% 5.2% 1.1% Source: Costar
Source: CoStar
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Delliveries
Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad
Medical
21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Performance (City) Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 86 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 81 of 142
-
-
■ ■ ■ ■
■ ■ ■ ■ ■
EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.6 $31.5 $32.2 $31.6 $29.3 $27.9 $29.7 $29.7 $30.1 $31.9 $32.1 $32.3 $33.2 $32.5 $33.5 $34.3 $32.5 $33.3 $32.4 $30.9 Y/Y % Change --- -6.3% 2.2% -1.7% -7.6% -4.7% 6.5% 0.1% 1.1% 6.1% 0.7% 0.5% 2.9% -2.0% --- 2.5% -5.2% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $37.3 $36.2 $37.0 $37.8 $25.8 $28.9 $37.7 $37.5 $38.9 $39.5 $37.4 $37.9 $43.7 $41.5 $44.0 $43.4 $41.5 $42.8 $40.0 $36.9 Y/Y % Change --- -3.0% 2.1% 2.2% -31.7% 12.1% 30.3% -0.6% 3.7% 1.5% -5.2% 1.2% 15.4% -5.0% --- -1.3% -4.4% 3.1% 1.3% 1.9% Oceanside
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.8 $30.4 $30.8 $26.4 $29.5 $23.2 $24.5 $26.3 $26.7 $26.7 $27.7 $28.4 $32.9 $31.8 $32.3 $32.0 $31.8 $30.8 $29.5 $27.8 Y/Y % Change --- -10.1% 1.5% -14.4% 11.8% -21.2% 5.3% 7.5% 1.4% -0.1% 3.9% 2.6% 15.8% -3.3% --- -1.0% -0.7% -3.2% 3.6% 3.8% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $33.2 $29.9 $30.0 $29.5 $27.3 $28.0 $29.4 $29.4 $30.0 $28.0 $28.8 $31.3 $30.8 $26.4 $31.0 $31.1 $26.4 $28.0 $29.1 $28.9 Y/Y % Change --- -9.9% 0.2% -1.8% -7.3% 2.3% 5.2% -0.1% 2.1% -6.8% 2.9% 8.9% -1.7% -14.3% --- 0.4% -15.2% 6.1% -2.5% -2.2% Encinitas
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $34.3 $33.3 $33.6 $30.3 $28.8 $27.9 $28.1 $25.4 $26.4 $27.1 $27.2 $28.9 $31.9 $33.9 $33.2 $35.1 $33.9 $33.0 $29.8 $28.6 Y/Y % Change --- -2.7% 0.8% -9.8% -4.8% -3.1% 0.8% -9.9% 3.9% 2.7% 0.6% 6.1% 10.3% 6.4% --- 5.8% -3.4% -2.7% 5.2% 2.3% Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $25.9 $23.6 $22.2 $25.0 $22.1 $23.1 $21.4 $26.4 $35.0 $38.8 $33.5 --- $28.5 --- --- --- --- $33.5 $33.6 $28.6 Y/Y % Change --- -8.9% -5.9% 12.5% -11.7% 4.4% -7.3% 23.5% 32.6% 10.8% -13.6% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $41.0 $41.8 $40.4 $41.7 $27.1 $21.0 $37.1 $41.1 $33.8 --- --- $43.3 $47.3 $50.3 $52.8 $50.3 $50.3 $50.3 $47.0 $37.6 Y/Y % Change --- 2.0% -3.5% 3.2% -34.9% -22.6% 76.4% 11.0% -17.9% --- --- --- 9.2% 6.3% --- -4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 3.8% South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $27.6 $27.6 $27.6 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 $26.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- $32.1 $30.0 $30.0 $32.1 $33.0 $32.1 $27.5 Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% 6.8% 3.0% --- 4.2% Industrial Corridor
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- $42.0 $42.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $29.4 --- $29.4 $29.4 --- --- $29.4 $29.4 Y/Y % Change --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
Medical
21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 87 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 82 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Vacancy 12.1% 14.4% 13.6% 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.7% 9.7% 8.3% 8.3% 7.6% 6.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.5% 10.1% 9.4% 9.4% 8.2% 9.8% Y/Y % Change --- 19.0% -5.6% 2.9% -7.1% 0.0% -2.3% -23.6% -14.4% 0.0% -8.4% -14.5% 44.6% 0.0% --- 6.3% -6.9% 0.0% 2.5% -7.7% Carlsbad
Vacancy 16.5% 14.6% 14.8% 11.5% 8.7% 19.0% 17.1% 8.4% 6.0% 6.1% 5.5% 4.6% 8.4% 8.0% 9.2% 7.0% 8.0% 10.5% 6.5% 9.2% Y/Y % Change --- -11.5% 1.4% -22.3% -24.3% 118.4% -10.0% -50.9% -28.6% 1.7% -9.8% -16.4% 82.6% -4.8% --- -23.9% 14.3% 31.3% 5.9% -7.0% Oceanside
Vacancy 25.0% 28.1% 23.6% 21.2% 13.8% 12.9% 13.6% 11.8% 11.8% 7.2% 9.1% 7.0% 9.8% 5.9% 7.2% 4.3% 5.9% 8.3% 7.8% 10.3% Y/Y % Change --- 12.4% -16.0% -10.2% -34.9% -6.5% 5.4% -13.2% 0.0% -39.0% 26.4% -23.1% 40.0% -39.8% --- -40.3% 37.2% 40.7% -12.9% -22.6% San Marcos
Vacancy 9.7% 19.1% 16.7% 20.1% 18.7% 17.3% 15.3% 15.0% 10.0% 11.6% 9.3% 5.8% 7.3% 7.5% 7.8% 7.7% 7.5% 6.7% 8.3% 11.8% Y/Y % Change --- 96.9% -12.6% 20.4% -7.0% -7.5% -11.6% -2.0% -33.3% 16.0% -19.8% -37.6% 25.9% 2.7% --- -1.3% -2.6% -10.7% -5.6% -17.9% Encinitas
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Vacancy 16.9% 25.6% 21.7% 20.0% 22.3% 21.2% 20.5% 8.5% 9.6% 9.0% 7.1% 6.8% 10.0% 10.4% 7.9% 9.0% 10.4% 11.2% 8.7% 12.5% Y/Y % Change --- 51.5% -15.2% -7.8% 11.5% -4.9% -3.3% -58.5% 12.9% -6.3% -21.1% -4.2% 47.1% 4.0% --- 13.9% 15.6% 7.7% 1.6% -12.3% Village
Vacancy 4.5% 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 8.8% 2.1% 3.5% 0.0% 2.3% 4.6% 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 3.6% 3.6% 2.8% 3.3% Y/Y % Change --- -37.8% -46.4% 0.0% 73.3% 11.5% -3.4% 214.3% -76.1% 66.7% -100.0% --- 100.0% -21.7% --- 0.0% 71.4% 0.0% 11.4% 19.1% Olde Carlsbad
Vacancy 44.7% 33.5% 22.8% 15.1% 4.0% 13.1% 13.0% 5.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.5% 4.8% Y/Y % Change --- -25.1% -31.9% -33.8% -73.5% 227.5% -0.8% -58.5% -100.0% --- 135.0% 2.1% -100.0% --- --- --- 0.0% 0.0% --- -43.1% South Beach
Vacancy 18.1% 8.3% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 1.8% 1.8% 5.8% 4.0% 1.2% 0.9% Y/Y % Change --- -54.1% -27.7% -16.7% -100.0% --- -100.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% 222.2% -31.0% --- 3.0% Industrial Corridor
Vacancy 0.0% 0.0% 43.7% 43.7% 59.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 16.6% Y/Y % Change --- --- --- 0.0% 36.6% -73.2% 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% --- --- --- -66.4% -100.0% --- --- --- --- --- -100.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Medical
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Medical: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 88 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 83 of 142
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- -- -- ----~ - , ""'I - - ·- - --------..... -- - --~- - - -- -... - - - - •--'"""--"--Ill!--I I EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr Village
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 71 71 71 71 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 69 72 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 0 -3 0 0 --- 0 0 0 -1 -1 Net Absorption T 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 -1 -1 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.2% Vacant SF 0 0 0 0 7 7 7 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- $9.96 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $9.96 % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Vacant SF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 532 532 532 532 532 532 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 408 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 -154 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 -15 Net Absorption T 6 -6 4 -4 6 5 -158 -6 9 0 -3 1 -8 4 --- 8 0 0 -1 -15 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.9% 2.1% 1.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% Vacant SF 5 11 7 11 5 0 3 9 0 0 3 2 10 6 14 6 6 6 4 4
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $18.00 $14.40 $15.09 $15.44 $15.22 $16.52 $17.88 $20.97 $13.93 $19.80 $17.54 $22.20 $17.43 $22.54 $20.39 $12.74 $22.54 $22.54 $19.90 $18.40 % Change 1.9% -20.0% 4.8% 2.3% -1.4% 8.5% 8.2% 17.3% -33.6% 42.1% -11.4% 26.6% -21.5% 29.3% --- -37.5% 76.9% 0.0% 10.1% 3.9% Industrial Corridor
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,856 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,915 2,868 2,862 Net Deliveries R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 --- 0 0 0 12 6 Net Absorption T -177 -3 71 54 -17 29 60 -46 -26 -9 -214 169 -11 283 --- 20 192 3 44 22 Total Vacancy Rate T 11.8% 11.9% 9.4% 7.5% 8.1% 7.1% 5.0% 6.6% 7.5% 7.8% 15.3% 9.4% 9.8% 1.9% 9.2% 8.5% 1.9% 1.8% 8.8% 7.9% Vacant SF 337 340 268 214 231 203 143 188 214 223 437 268 280 55 268 248 55 52 253 224 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $12.29 $11.32 $11.17 $10.92 $10.29 $10.27 $9.82 $12.38 $12.76 $12.58 $13.16 $13.65 $14.59 $14.77 $14.74 $14.77 $14.77 $16.33 $13.75 $12.43 % Change -5.0% -7.9% -1.3% -2.2% -5.8% -0.2% -4.4% 26.1% 3.1% -1.4% 4.6% 3.7% 6.9% 1.2% --- 0.2% 0.0% 10.6% 3.0% 3.1% Source: Costar
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Deliveries
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
-300
-200
-100
0 100
200
300
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
South Beach Industrial Corridor Olde Carlsbad Village
Industrial
21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Performance (Sub) Page 1 of 4 The Concord Group 89 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 84 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Averages
Market Factor (SF) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 54,170 54,382 54,596 54,550 54,674 54,862 54,945 55,004 55,590 55,864 57,613 58,256 59,000 59,056 59,068 59,060 59,056 59,056 57,958 56,486 Net Deliveries R 53,978 212 215 -47 125 187 83 59 586 274 1,749 643 744 55 --- -8 -5 0 693 451 Net Absorption T 49,969 -1,000 412 67 551 446 1,011 771 892 95 808 81 1,461 1,706 --- 288 881 0 830 782 Total Vacancy Rate T 7.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.0% 8.2% 7.7% 6.0% 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% 5.9% 6.8% 5.5% 2.7% 4.7% 4.2% 2.7% 2.7% 5.1% 5.6% Vacant SF 4,009 5,221 5,023 4,909 4,483 4,224 3,297 2,585 2,279 2,458 3,399 3,961 3,245 1,595 2,776 2,481 1,595 1,595 2,932 3,153 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $10.50 $9.39 $9.23 $8.93 $8.97 $9.19 $9.65 $10.04 $10.72 $11.09 $11.90 $12.17 $12.77 $12.97 $12.72 $12.74 $12.97 $13.22 $12.18 $10.95 % Change --- -10.6% -1.7% -3.3% 0.4% 2.5% 5.0% 4.0% 6.8% 3.5% 7.3% 2.3% 4.9% 1.6% --- 0.2% 1.8% 1.9% 3.9% 3.8% Carlsbad
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 7,287 7,287 7,287 7,287 7,287 7,324 7,169 7,244 7,101 7,313 8,407 8,611 8,661 8,720 8,720 8,720 8,720 8,720 8,343 7,784 Net Deliveries R 30 0 0 0 0 37 -154 74 -143 212 1,094 204 50 59 --- 0 0 0 324 143 Net Absorption T -176 -51 146 -160 58 143 -76 -48 27 204 265 463 295 742 --- 201 488 0 394 207 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.4% 11.1% 9.1% 11.3% 10.5% 9.0% 8.1% 9.7% 7.5% 7.4% 16.3% 12.9% 10.0% 2.1% 10.0% 7.7% 2.1% 2.1% 9.7% 9.4% Vacant SF 758 809 663 823 765 659 581 703 533 541 1,370 1,111 866 183 872 671 183 183 814 731 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $11.82 $10.76 $10.62 $10.01 $9.39 $9.70 $9.79 $10.93 $12.31 $11.86 $12.68 $12.90 $14.05 $14.23 $14.62 $14.35 $14.23 $14.52 $13.14 $11.78 % Change -1.1% -9.0% -1.3% -5.7% -6.2% 3.3% 0.9% 11.6% 12.6% -3.7% 6.9% 1.7% 8.9% 1.3% --- -1.8% -0.8% 2.0% 2.9% 3.6% Oceanside
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 7,909 8,130 8,184 8,184 8,184 8,184 8,157 8,214 8,957 8,957 9,082 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,360 9,224 8,782 Net Deliveries R -12 222 54 0 0 0 -27 57 743 0 125 278 0 0 --- 0 0 0 80 118 Net Absorption T 171 -249 4 188 106 49 213 487 881 -81 39 275 112 84 --- 75 56 -9 86 217 Total Vacancy Rate T 10.7% 16.2% 16.7% 14.4% 13.1% 12.5% 9.6% 4.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 4.1% 2.9% 2.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 3.3% 5.8% Vacant SF 846 1,317 1,367 1,179 1,072 1,023 783 353 215 296 381 384 271 187 318 243 187 197 304 497 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $9.52 $8.47 $7.89 $7.91 $7.74 $7.97 $8.35 $8.43 $9.23 $10.42 $10.89 $10.98 $11.73 $12.33 $11.98 $12.08 $12.33 $12.59 $11.27 $9.81 % Change 0.5% -11.0% -6.8% 0.3% -2.1% 3.0% 4.8% 1.0% 9.5% 12.9% 4.5% 0.8% 6.8% 5.1% --- 0.8% 2.1% 2.1% 6.0% 4.5% San Marcos
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 8,227 8,245 8,200 8,126 8,126 8,126 8,126 7,981 7,971 7,961 8,183 8,183 8,202 8,203 8,211 8,203 8,203 8,203 8,146 8,106 Net Deliveries R 0 18 -45 -74 0 0 0 -145 -10 -10 222 0 19 1 --- -8 0 0 46 8 Net Absorption T -263 -33 1 -108 8 57 138 25 -113 -25 166 -98 -16 272 --- -40 41 -8 60 41 Total Vacancy Rate T 9.0% 9.6% 9.1% 9.6% 9.5% 8.8% 7.1% 5.1% 6.4% 6.6% 7.1% 8.3% 8.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 7.2% 7.3% Vacant SF 740 792 746 780 772 715 577 407 510 525 581 679 714 443 452 484 443 451 588 592 Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $9.73 $9.49 $8.92 $8.69 $8.98 $9.27 $9.45 $9.72 $9.16 $10.30 $11.57 $11.84 $12.01 $12.24 $11.96 $12.06 $12.24 $12.83 $11.59 $10.45 % Change 0.5% -2.5% -6.0% -2.6% 3.3% 3.2% 1.9% 2.9% -5.8% 12.4% 12.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.9% --- 0.8% 1.5% 4.8% 6.0% 3.5% Encinitas
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 176 Net Deliveries R -16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Net Absorption T -16 -13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0 0 0 Total Vacancy Rate T 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Vacant SF 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- $15.00 $14.04 --- $22.08 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $22.08 % Change --- --- -6.4% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Inventory SF (RBA, 000s) T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Deliveries R --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Net Absorption T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Total Vacancy Rate T --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vacant SF --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Source: Costar
Source: CoStar
-600
-400
-200
0 200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Absorption
Vista Encinitas San Macros Oceanside Carlsbad
0 200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Square Feet (Bar)
Net Delliveries
Vista Encinitas San Marcos Oceanside Carlsbad
Industrial
21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Performance (City) Page 2 of 4 The Concord Group 90 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 85 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $10.5 $9.4 $9.2 $8.9 $9.0 $9.2 $9.7 $10.0 $10.7 $11.1 $11.9 $12.2 $12.8 $13.0 $12.7 $12.7 $13.0 $13.2 $12.2 $10.9 Y/Y % Change --- -10.6% -1.7% -3.3% 0.4% 2.5% 5.0% 4.0% 6.8% 3.5% 7.3% 2.3% 4.9% 1.6% --- 0.2% 1.8% 1.9% 3.9% 7.8% Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $11.8 $10.8 $10.6 $10.0 $9.4 $9.7 $9.8 $10.9 $12.3 $11.9 $12.7 $12.9 $14.1 $14.2 $14.6 $14.4 $14.2 $14.5 $13.1 $11.8 Y/Y % Change --- -9.0% -1.3% -5.7% -6.2% 3.3% 0.9% 11.6% 12.6% -3.7% 6.9% 1.7% 8.9% 1.3% --- -1.8% -0.8% 2.0% 2.9% 7.3% Oceanside
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $9.5 $8.5 $7.9 $7.9 $7.7 $8.0 $8.4 $8.4 $9.2 $10.4 $10.9 $11.0 $11.7 $12.3 $12.0 $12.1 $12.3 $12.6 $11.3 $9.8 Y/Y % Change --- -11.0% -6.8% 0.3% -2.1% 3.0% 4.8% 1.0% 9.5% 12.9% 4.5% 0.8% 6.8% 5.1% --- 0.8% 2.1% 2.1% 6.0% 9.3% San Marcos
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $9.7 $9.5 $8.9 $8.7 $9.0 $9.3 $9.5 $9.7 $9.2 $10.3 $11.6 $11.8 $12.0 $12.2 $12.0 $12.1 $12.2 $12.8 $11.6 $10.5 Y/Y % Change --- -2.5% -6.0% -2.6% 3.3% 3.2% 1.9% 2.9% -5.8% 12.4% 12.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.9% --- 0.8% 1.5% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1% Encinitas
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- $15.0 $14.0 --- $22.1 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $22.1 Y/Y % Change --- --- -6.4% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Village
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- $10.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $10.0 Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $18.0 $14.4 $15.1 $15.4 $15.2 $16.5 $17.9 $21.0 $13.9 $19.8 $17.5 $22.2 $17.4 $22.5 $20.4 $12.7 $22.5 $22.5 $19.9 $18.4 Y/Y % Change --- -20.0% 4.8% 2.3% -1.4% 8.5% 8.2% 17.3% -33.6% 42.1% -11.4% 26.6% -21.5% 29.3% --- -37.5% 76.9% 0.0% 10.1% 7.9% Industrial Corridor
Gross Rent Direct ($/SF) $12.3 $11.3 $11.2 $10.9 $10.3 $10.3 $9.8 $12.4 $12.8 $12.6 $13.2 $13.7 $14.6 $14.8 $14.7 $14.8 $14.8 $16.3 $13.8 $12.4 Y/Y % Change --- -7.9% -1.3% -2.2% -5.8% -0.2% -4.4% 26.1% 3.1% -1.4% 4.6% 3.7% 6.9% 1.2% --- 0.2% 0.0% 10.6% 3.0% 6.2% Source: Costar
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Encinitas Vista $15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Rent Direct ($/sf/yr)
Historical Gross Direct Rent ($/SF)
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
Industrial
21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Rents Page 3 of 4 The Concord Group 91 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 86 of 142
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EXHIBIT V-2
OFFICE MARKET PERFORMANCE - VACANCY TRENDS
SELECT SUBMARKETS
2008 THROUGH 2021
Annual Quarterly Annual Average
Market Factor 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 5-Yr 10-Yr North County
Vacancy 7.4% 9.6% 9.2% 9.0% 8.2% 7.7% 6.0% 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% 5.9% 6.8% 5.5% 2.7% 4.7% 4.2% 2.7% 2.7% 5.1% 5.6% Y/Y % Change --- 29.7% -4.2% -2.2% -8.9% -6.1% -22.1% -21.7% -12.8% 7.3% 34.1% 15.3% -19.1% -50.9% --- -10.6% -35.7% 0.0% -8.0% -21.4% Carlsbad
Vacancy 10.4% 11.1% 9.1% 11.3% 10.5% 9.0% 8.1% 9.7% 7.5% 7.4% 16.3% 12.9% 10.0% 2.1% 10.0% 7.7% 2.1% 2.1% 9.7% 9.4% Y/Y % Change --- 6.7% -18.0% 24.2% -7.1% -14.3% -10.0% 19.8% -22.7% -1.3% 120.3% -20.9% -22.5% -79.0% --- -23.0% -72.7% 0.0% -22.5% -28.6% Oceanside
Vacancy 10.7% 16.2% 16.7% 14.4% 13.1% 12.5% 9.6% 4.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 4.1% 2.9% 2.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 3.3% 5.8% Y/Y % Change --- 51.4% 3.1% -13.8% -9.0% -4.6% -23.2% -55.2% -44.2% 37.5% 27.3% -2.4% -29.3% -31.0% --- -23.5% -23.1% 5.0% -3.6% -32.6% San Marcos
Vacancy 9.0% 9.6% 9.1% 9.6% 9.5% 8.8% 7.1% 5.1% 6.4% 6.6% 7.1% 8.3% 8.7% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 7.2% 7.3% Y/Y % Change --- 6.7% -5.2% 5.5% -1.0% -7.4% -19.3% -28.2% 25.5% 3.1% 7.6% 16.9% 4.8% -37.9% --- 7.3% -8.5% 1.9% -3.3% -10.9% Encinitas
Vacancy 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Y/Y % Change --- --- -100.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Vista
Vacancy --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Village
Vacancy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.2% Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% 0.0% -100.0% --- --- --- -100.0% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Olde Carlsbad
Vacancy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- South Beach
Vacancy 0.9% 2.1% 1.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% Y/Y % Change --- 133.3% -33.3% 50.0% -52.4% -100.0% --- 166.7% -100.0% --- --- -33.3% 333.3% -38.5% --- -57.9% 0.0% 0.0% --- -5.3% Industrial Corridor
Vacancy 11.8% 11.9% 9.4% 7.5% 8.1% 7.1% 5.0% 6.6% 7.5% 7.8% 15.3% 9.4% 9.8% 1.9% 9.2% 8.5% 1.9% 1.8% 8.8% 7.9% Y/Y % Change --- 0.8% -21.0% -20.2% 8.0% -12.3% -29.6% 32.0% 13.6% 4.0% 96.2% -38.6% 4.3% -80.6% --- -7.6% -77.6% -5.3% -24.0% -24.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Macros Encinitas Vista Industrial
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2008 2012 2016 2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Historical Vacancy (%)
Village Old Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Corridor
21091.00 Office Trends - Industrial: Vacancy Page 4 of 4 The Concord Group 92 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 87 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-2
OFFICE DEMAND
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
2020 THROUGH 2029
I. Demand from Net New Jobs (Key Industry Segments)
Office Area Per Job (Net) (4)
Annual New Jobs (000s) (1) % Office Perm. Pre- Post- Potential Net New Office Demand - Square Feet (000s) Key Industry Segments 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Using (2) %WFH (3) COVID-19 COVID-19 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Corporate
Finance and insurance -0.6 -1.8 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 90.0% 225 248 -96 -283 43 32 -39 -20 69 139 152 161 Real estate and rental and leasing -1.7 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 89.0% 250 275 -289 112 207 33 -7 -12 21 50 52 50 Management of companies and enterprises -0.3 0.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 92.0% 305 336 -73 121 144 -35 -50 -44 -35 -24 -24 -25 Legal services -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 88.0% 335 369 -71 33 -16 -114 -88 -68 -55 -48 -42 -40 Acct, tax prep, and payroll services -1.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 88.0% 255 281 -214 30 27 -40 -28 -19 -14 -11 -8 -8 Administrative and support services -5.3 0.6 0.7 -0.1 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 92.0% 285 314 -1,060 113 133 -26 153 368 339 276 278 274 Mgmt, scientific, and technical consulting services -0.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 90.0% 305 336 -73 -45 121 -23 9 36 52 58 64 60 Totals: -9.9 0.1 3.5 -0.7 -0.3 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 89.9% 15.0% 280 10.0% -1,877 81 659 -173 -51 241 378 441 471 473 Technology
Architectural; engineering; and related services 0.3 2.2 0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 83.0% 175 193 34 229 75 -67 -46 -28 -18 -13 -8 -9 Computer systems design and related services 0.1 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 88.0% 155 171 12 -16 54 -15 2 17 25 28 31 29 S o f t w a r e p u b l i s h e r s 0 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 7 . 0 % 1 6 5 1 8 2 2 9 - 4 2 1 1 5 1 063320 D a t a p r o c e s s i n g ; h o s t i n g a n d r e l a t e d s e r v i c e s 0 . 1 0 . 6 0 . 3 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 8 6 . 0 % 2 0 5 2 2 6 97 23 61 81 51 21 11 21 11 1 Specialized design services -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.0% 300 330 -34 5 9 -8 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 0 O t h e r p r o f e s s i o n a l ; s c i e n t i f i c ; a n d t e c h n i c a l s e r v i - 0 . 9 - 0 . 2 0 . 1 - 0 . 1 - 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 7 . 0 % 3 0 0 3 3 0 - 1 7 1 - 4 5 1 7 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 32465 O t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n s e r v i c e s - 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 2 8 6 . 0 % 3 0 0 3 3 0 - 3 44 65 63 63 53 43 43 53 53 5 Totals: -0.5 2.6 2.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 86.4% 20.0% 229 10.0% -156 286 269 -41 2 35 56 68 77 71 Media
Advertising; public relations; and related service
s -0.8 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.0% 315 347 -147 -50 14 -23 -17 -13 -10 -9 -8 -7 Newspaper; periodical; book; and directory pub 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 88.0% 365 402 -10 -25 -21 -34 -32 -30 -27 -23 -21 -18 M o t i o n p i c t u r e a n d s o u n d r e c o r d i n g i n d u s t r i e s - 1 . 0 - 0 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 7 . 0 % 3 7 5 4 1 3 - 2 3 0 - 3 9 3 9320 - 100 - 1 Broadcasting (except internet) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 86.0% 325 358 -36 1 12 -10 -12 -14 -14 -13 -12 -12 Telecommunications -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 88.0% 365 402 -101 -50 -6 -40 -45 -49 -48 -43 -40 -39 Promoters of performing arts; sports; and simila
r - 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 7 . 0 % 3 7 5 4 1 3 - 2 44 3 6 2 4 2 1 1 6 1 0765 Agents and mgrs for artists; athletes; entertainers 0 . 0 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 6 . 0 % 3 2 5 3 5 86 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 086444 Totals: -2.4 -0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 86.4% 18.0% 349 10.0% -541 -147 88 -69 -74 -83 -84 -78 -72 -69 Flex
Scientific research and development services 0.7 3.7 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 50.0% 275 303 80 431 183 -81 -46 -18 -1 7 13 11 Wa r e h o u s i n g a n d s t o r a g e - 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 5 0 . 0 % 4 0 0 4 4 0 - 3 41 83 72 21 61 61 71 71 61 6 Religious; grantmaking; civic; prof; and similar o -3.3 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 50.0% 225 248 -314 58 147 49 32 40 -14 -20 -17 -15 Totals: -2.8 4.4 3.3 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 50.0% 5.0% 300 10.0% -268 508 367 -10 2 39 3 3 12 12 Total Net New Office Demand: -2,842 727 1,383 -293 -122 232 353 434 488 488 1,295 -224 -48 315 437 512 560 556
(1) Source: Moody's Economy (1/25/2022)
(2)(3) Per TCG projection
(4) Pre-COVID19 office area per job based on studies from Gensler Workplace Standards Benchmark, ULI, and Cushman & Wakefield; post-COVID19 office area per job assumed to be 10% larger due to the effects of de-densification and social distancing 21690.00 Office Demand: OfficeDemand.Model THE CONCORD GROUP 93 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 88 of 142
---------------------------------------- ---- ---- ----- -------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- ---- ---- ----- -------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- ---- ---- ----- -------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- ---- ---- ----- -------------------------------------------- EXHIBIT II-2
OFFICE DEMAND
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
2020 THROUGH 2029
II. Demand from Turnover, Obsolescence, and Redevelopment Percent Office Current Annual
Total Employment (000s) (1) Office Area (Net) Office Obsol. Potential Office Demand - Square Feet (000s) Key Industry Segments 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Using (2) Per Job (3) Pool (ths) Rate 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Finance and insurance 45.8 43.9 44.2 44.4 44.2 44.0 44.5 45.4 46.4 47.4 90.0% 248 10,195 76 74 77 77 76 76 77 78 78 78 Real estate and rental and leasing 28.5 29.1 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.4 89.0% 275 6,968 50 53 54 53 52 52 52 53 53 53 Management of companies and enterprises 23.5 24.1 24.7 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.6 92.0% 336 7,254 54 55 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 Legal services 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9 88.0% 369 4,148 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 Accounting; tax preparation; bookkeeping; and p 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 88.0% 281 2,010 13 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Administrative and support services 77.7 78.3 78.9 78.8 79.6 81.4 83.1 84.5 85.8 87.2 92.0% 314 22,411 160 169 169 168 169 171 171 170 170 170 Management; scientific; and technical consulting 22.7 22.5 23.1 2 3.0 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.3 90.0% 336 6,861 51 51 52 51 52 52 52 52 52 52 Architectural; engineering; and related services 24.2 26.4 27.1 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.3 83.0% 193 3,863 29 31 30 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 Computer systems design and related services 25.6 25.4 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.2 88.0% 171 3,837 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 S o f t w a r e p u b l i s h e r s 5 . 5 5 . 4 5 . 6 5 . 8 5 . 9 5 . 9 6 . 0 6 . 0 6 . 0 6 . 0 8 7 . 0 % 1 8 2 8 6 6 7677777776 D a t a p r o c e s s i n g ; h o s t i n g a n d r e l a t e d s e r v i c e s 2 . 8 3 . 4 3 . 6 3 . 8 3 . 9 4 . 0 4 . 1 4 . 2 4 . 3 4 . 4 8 6 . 0 % 2 2 6 5 4 2 4544444444 S p e c i a l i z e d d e s i g n s e r v i c e s 2 . 0 2 . 0 2 . 0 2 . 0 2 . 0 1 . 9 1 . 9 1 . 9 1 . 9 1 . 9 8 8 . 0 % 3 3 0 5 6 6 4444444444 Other professional; scientific; and technical servi 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 87.0% 330 2,067 14 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 O t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n s e r v i c e s 1 . 8 2 . 1 2 . 4 2 . 6 2 . 8 3 . 0 3 . 1 3 . 3 3 . 5 3 . 7 8 6 . 0 % 3 3 0 5 2 1 4444444444 Advertising; public relations; and related services 3 . 4 3 . 2 3 . 3 3 . 1 3 . 1 3 . 0 2 . 9 2 . 9 2 . 8 2 . 8 8 3 . 0 % 3 4 7 9 9 1 6787777777 N e w s p a p e r ; p e r i o d i c a l ; b o o k ; a n d d i r e c t o r y p u b 1 . 7 1 . 6 1 . 5 1 . 4 1 . 2 1 . 1 1 . 0 0 . 9 0 . 8 0 . 7 8 8 . 0 % 4 0 2 6 0 7 4444444444 M o t i o n p i c t u r e a n d s o u n d r e c o r d i n g i n d u s t r i e s 1 . 2 1 . 0 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 8 7 . 0 % 4 1 3 4 2 8 1343333333 B r o a d c a s t i n g ( e x c e p t i n t e r n e t ) 2 . 7 2 . 7 2 . 7 2 . 7 2 . 6 2 . 5 2 . 5 2 . 4 2 . 4 2 . 3 8 6 . 0 % 3 5 8 8 1 7 6666666666 Telecommunications 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 88.0% 402 2,267 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 Promoters of performing arts; sports; and simila
r 0 . 5 0 . 6 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 9 1 . 0 1 . 0 1 . 0 1 . 1 1 . 1 8 7 . 0 % 4 1 3 1 9 4 1122222211 Agents and managers for artists; athletes; enterta 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 5 0 . 5 0 . 5 0 . 5 8 6 . 0 % 3 5 86 2 1111111000 Scientific research and development services 36.3 40.0 41.5 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.6 50.0% 303 5,493 42 44 43 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 Wa r e h o u s i n g a n d s t o r a g e 2 . 2 2 . 3 2 . 5 2 . 6 2 . 7 2 . 8 2 . 9 3 . 0 3 . 1 3 . 2 5 0 . 0 % 4 4 0 4 7 5 3444444444 Religious; grantmaking; civic; professional; and s 18.9 19.5 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.6 50.0% 248 2,342 15 18 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 Total Key Industries 362 368 377 376 375 377 379 381 384 387 83.1% 316 85,787 0.75% 622 649 654 641 642 645 646 647 647 647 Projected SD County Demand (000s): -2,219 1,376 2,037 348 520 877 999 1,081 1,135 1,135 Carlsbad Capture: 17%
OMA Demand (000s): -377 234 346 59 88 149 170 184 193 193 10Y Cumulative County Demand: 7,290
10Y Average Annual County Demand: 729
Corporate Segment -1,442 531 1,113 274 397 692 830 893 923 925 10Y Cumulative Demand: 5,136
10Y Average Annual Demand: 514 70%
Technology -65 380 363 51 94 127 149 161 169 164
10Y Cumulative Demand: 1,591
10Y Average Annual Demand: 159 22%
Media -505 -108 129 -29 -35 -44 -44 -38 -32 -29
10Y Cumulative Demand: -734
10Y Average Annual Demand: -73 -10%
Flex Segment -208 574 432 52 64 101 65 66 75 75
10Y Cumulative Demand: 1,296
10Y Average Annual Demand: 130 18%
(1) Source: Moody's Economy (1/25/2022)
(2)(3) Per TCG projection
(4) Pre-COVID19 office area per job based on studies from Gensler Workplace Standards Benchmark, ULI, and Cushman & Wakefield; post-COVID19 office area per job assumed to be 10% larger due to the effects of de-densification and social distancing 21690.00 Office Demand: OfficeDemand.Model THE CONCORD GROUP 94 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 89 of 142
------------------- ---------------------------------------- ---- ---- ----- -------------------------------------------- ------------------- ---------------------------------------- ---- ---- ----- -------------------------------------------- EXHIBIT II-3
OFFICE DEMAND - SUBMARKET CAPTURE SCENARIOS
NORTH COUNTY
2021 THROUGH 2030
Inputs and Assumptions:
Average Annual Net Office Demand (10Y): 728,998 SF
North County
Capture Metrics: Carlsbad Vista Solana Beach San Marcos Poway Oceanside Escondido Encinitas Del Mar North County Current Households ('21) 44,107 37,935 5,549 34,046 16,368 65,981 57,587 20,619 5,805 419,16 0 Share of North County 10.5% 9.1% 1.3% 8.1% 3.9% 15.7% 13.7% 4.9% 1.4% 100.0 % Projected HH Growth ('21-'26) 216 269 11 310 24 339 264 69 7 2,465 Share of North County 8.8% 10.9% 0.4% 12.6% 1.0% 13.8% 10.7% 2.8% 0.3% 100.0 % Class A Office Inventory RBA (000s) 2,244 55 212 432 163 256 274 0 0 11,068 Share of North County 20.3% 0.5% 1.9% 3.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 % Recent Housing Growth (2011-'21) 2,321 2,190 101 3,999 150 3,110 1,779 733 56 24,862 Share of North County 9.3% 8.8% 0.4% 16.1% 0.6% 12.5% 7.2% 2.9% 0.2% 100.0 % Employment ('21) 80,858 46,014 9,543 35,599 28,091 47,933 67,748 27,162 8,651 475,097 Share of North County 17.0% 9.7% 2.0% 7.5% 5.9% 10.1% 14.3% 5.7% 1.8% 100.0 % Future Apartment Supply - CoStar 132 400 0 184 265 577 684 140 0 24,655 Share of North County 0.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 2.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 100.0 % Future Office Supply - CoStar 50,000 0 54,845 1,451,062 0 250,749 116,614 20,177 0 15,656,351 Share of North County 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 9.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0 % Imputed Capture
Maximum Implied 20.3% 10.9% 2.0% 16.1% 5.9% 15.7% 14.3% 5.7% 1.8% 100.0 % Average 9.5% 5.8% 0.9% 8.3% 2.0% 8.3% 7.4% 2.4% 0.5% 100.0% TCG Concluded Capture 17.0% 6.0% 1.0% 14.0% 4.0% 13.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% 100.0% Annual Net SF Demanded 123,930 43,740 7,290 102,060 29,160 94,770 87,480 29,160 7,290 728,998 Sources: ESRI, US Census (American Factfinder & Center for Economic Studies), CoStar 21690.00 Office Demand: Office-Capture THE CONCORD GROUP 95 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 90 of 142
EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
CARLSBAD
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078
Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982
% North County 22.6% 22.6% 22.0% 21.7%
Net Completions
North County 0 268 227 471
Carlsbad 0 102 98 151
% North County --- 37.3% 33.5% 28.9%
Occupancy Rate
North County 88.7% 88.8% 88.7% 87.3%
Carlsbad 86.6% 84.4% 83.8% 81.6%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (102) 238 304 418
Carlsbad 77 150 127 139
% North County (75.5%) 29.8% 32.6% 52.0%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8
Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7
vs. North County (13.7%) (11.9%) (10.4%) (9.6%)
Office Class A
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855
Carlsbad 2,244 2,127 1,930 1,825
% North County 20.3% 19.9% 18.8% 18.5%
Net Completions
North County 0 207 147 301
Carlsbad 0 81 58 68
% North County --- 43.8% 34.4% 27.6%
Occupancy Rate
North County 87.2% 87.1% 88.0% 86.2%
Carlsbad 83.6% 83.3% 80.3% 76.1%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (144) 187 151 292
Carlsbad (4) 97 66 67
% North County 3.1% 16.7% 24.2% 21.3%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4
Carlsbad $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 $31.4
vs. North County (23.1%) (22.3%) (20.1%) (17.9%)
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943
Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263
% North County 11.2% 11.1% 10.8% 10.5%
Net Completions
North County 29 139 148 216
Carlsbad 6 44 69 64
% North County 19.2% 26.4% 58.7% 46.4%
Occupancy Rate
North County 94.2% 95.3% 95.1% 94.9%
Carlsbad 91.4% 95.3% 96.2% 96.5%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County 167 (13) 164 134
Carlsbad 2 (26) 37 40
% North County 1.3% 32.5% 31.7% 18.3%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22
Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32
vs. North County 76.7% 59.8% 51.2% 46.0%
Source: CoStar
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-200
-100
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class A)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. Covid Impact: Retail and Office Occupancy and Absorption decreased in 2020,
2.Class A Office completions peaked at 2006 & 2007
3. Carlsbads Overall Office Rents are lower than North County Average
4. Carlsbad Retail Rents are 60% higher than the average retail rents in North County (5-Yrs) 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Carlsbad Page 1 of 9 The Concord Group 96 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 91 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
OCEANSIDE
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078
Oceanside 1,961 1,855 1,805 1,718
% North County 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.3%
Net Completions
North County 0 268 227 471
Oceanside 0 36 27 48
% North County --- 3.2% 8.4% 11.5%
Occupancy Rate
North County 88.7% 88.8% 88.7% 87.3%
Oceanside 93.7% 92.4% 89.7% 87.4%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (102) 238 304 418
Oceanside (20) 52 45 49
% North County 19.3% 45.7% 17.1% 91.1%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8
Oceanside $26.8 $25.3 $24.0 $25.1
vs. North County (29.3%) (28.6%) (25.9%) (20.5%)
Office Class A
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855
Oceanside 256 205 188 164
% North County 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%
Net Completions
North County 0 207 147 301
Oceanside 0 17 9 17
% North County --- 4.7% 2.3% 5.9%
Occupancy Rate
North County 87.2% 87.1% 88.0% 86.2%
Oceanside 97.2% 90.5% 86.1% ---
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (144) 187 151 292
Oceanside 0 25 14 16
% North County 0.0% 3.0% 6.1% 5.8%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4
Oceanside $32.2 $29.8 $28.9 $30.0
vs. North County (27.2%) (29.3%) (26.6%) (21.2%)
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943
Oceanside 2,396 2385 2379 2365
% North County 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Net Completions
North County 29 139 148 216
Oceanside 2 5 3 7
% North County 5.4% 3.3% 0.2% 3.0%
Occupancy Rate
North County 94.2% 95.3% 95.1% 94.9%
Oceanside 84.7% 88.7% 89.0% 88.8%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County 167 (13) 164 134
Oceanside (7) (24) (6) (6)
% North County (4.2%) 0.8% 1.9% (2.4%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22
Oceanside $24.8 $21 $20 $21
vs. North County (0.9%) (6.5%) (5.1%) (3.7%)
Source: CoStar
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class A)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. Overall Office , Class A Office and Retail rents in Ocreanside are lower than the North County Average.
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Oceanside Page 2 of 9 The Concord Group 97 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 92 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
ENCINITAS
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078
Encinitas 1,768 1,711 1,687 1,668
% North County 5.2% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%
Net Completions
North County 0 268 227 471
Encinitas 0 17 13 14
% North County --- 33.5% 25.8% 17.5%
Occupancy Rate
North County 88.7% 88.8% 88.7% 87.3%
Encinitas 94.4% 95.5% 95.7% 94.7%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (102) 238 304 418
Encinitas (5) 7 12 16
% North County 5.2% (1.8%) (6.5%) (42.4%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8
Encinitas $42.3 $40.5 $37.2 $35.5
vs. North County 11.6% 14.3% 14.5% 11.8%
Office Class B (Class A Office Not Available)
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 18,248 18,065 17,802 17,543
Encinitas 1,483 1,426 1,402 1,385
% North County 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
Net Completions
North County 0 75 90 176
Encinitas 0 18 13 13
% North County --- 41.3% 26.3% 18.2%
Occupancy Rate
North County 88.1% 88.4% 87.9% 86.5%
Encinitas 94.2% 94.9% 95.3% 94.2%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County 18 59 142 133
Encinitas 0 8 11 15
% North County 0.0% 35.0% 16.6% 15.7%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $34.6 $31.9 $30.1 $29.6
Encinitas $42.5 $40.4 $37.2 $35.6
vs. North County 22.6% 26.8% 23.7% 20.0%
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943
Encinitas 5,418 5419 5462 5534
% North County 10.6% 10.7% 10.8% 11.1%
Net Completions
North County 29 139 148 216
Encinitas 2 0 (34) (15)
% North County 5.4% 0.6% 13.1% 18.5%
Occupancy Rate
North County 94.2% 95.3% 95.1% 94.9%
Encinitas 97.2% 97.6% 97.5% 96.9%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County 167 (13) 164 134
Encinitas 7 (6) (16) (18)
% North County 4.1% (6.1%) (7.0%) 7.2%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22
Encinitas $39.7 $30 $30 $29
vs. North County 58.5% 32.2% 39.2% 31.1%
Source: CoStar
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-80
-60
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class B)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-350
-250
-150
-50
50 150
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. Office and Retail Occupany are relatively stable during the Pandemic
2. Overall and Class A Office and Retail rents are higher than the North County Average Rents
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Encinitas Page 3 of 9 The Concord Group 98 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 93 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
SAN MARCOS
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078
San Marcos 1,727 1,723 1,678 1,614
% North County 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0%
Net Completions
North County 0 268 227 471
San Marcos 0 15 18 29
% North County --- 13.8% 20.3% 15.2%
Occupancy Rate
North County 88.7% 88.8% 88.7% 87.3%
San Marcos 91.8% 92.5% 90.1% 88.4%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (102) 238 304 418
San Marcos 14 8 27 24
% North County (13.6%) (14.7%) (18.2%) 17.1%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8
San Marcos $27.5 $27.4 $26.9 $27.4
vs. North County (27.5%) (22.6%) (16.6%) (13.1%)
Office Class A
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855
San Marcos 432 432 432 402
% North County 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1%
Net Completions
North County 0 207 147 301
San Marcos 0 0 7 11
% North County --- 0.0% 8.0% 6.0%
Occupancy Rate
North County 87.2% 87.1% 88.0% 86.2%
San Marcos 92.1% 92.8% 91.2% 86.8%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (144) 187 151 292
San Marcos 0 (2) 13 10
% North County 0.0% (0.8%) 10.1% 7.2%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4
San Marcos $33.5 $33.3 $32.2 $32.4
vs. North County (24.3%) (21.1%) (18.1%) (15.1%)
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943
San Marcos 4,676 4670 4638 4647
% North County 9.1% 9.2% 9.2% 9.3%
Net Completions
North County 29 139 148 216
San Marcos 2 9 11 10
% North County 6.1% 4.8% (2.0%) (14.9%)
Occupancy Rate
North County 94.2% 95.3% 95.1% 94.9%
San Marcos 90.1% 92.1% 92.7% 93.0%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County 167 (13) 164 134
San Marcos 39 (42) (4) (13)
% North County 23.3% (15.8%) (3.5%) 43.6%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22
San Marcos $20.0 $16 $17 $19
vs. North County (20.1%) (30.4%) (21.0%) (13.5%)
Source: CoStar
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class A)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. San Marcos Office and Retail rents are lower than the North County Average
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: San Marcos Page 4 of 9 The Concord Group 99 DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 94 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
VISTA
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 33,929 33,360 32,726 32,078
Vista 1,773 1,773 1,765 1,747
% North County 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5%
Net Completions
North County 0 268 227 471
Vista 0 2 2 12
% North County --- 2.5% 1.4% 2.0%
Occupancy Rate
North County 88.7% 88.8% 88.7% 87.3%
Vista 83.0% 85.4% 84.8% 84.9%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (102) 238 304 418
Vista 0 (12) (0) (2)
% North County 0.0% (12.1%) 1.6% (43.3%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $37.9 $35.4 $32.5 $31.8
Vista $27.2 $23.2 $22.7 $23.6
vs. North County (28.2%) (34.5%) (29.7%) (25.2%)
Office Class A
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 11,068 10,664 10,259 9,855
Vista 55 55 55 55
% North County 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Net Completions
North County 0 207 147 301
Vista 0 0 0 0
% North County --- 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Occupancy Rate
North County 87.2% 87.1% 88.0% 86.2%
Vista 87.6% 82.9% 83.8% 85.5%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County (144) 187 151 292
Vista 0 0 (0) (0)
% North County 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% (0.0%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $44.3 $42.2 $39.5 $38.4
Vista $38.1 $36.4 $34.5 $34.4
vs. North County (13.9%) (13.8%) (12.7%) (10.0%)
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
North County 51,123 50828 50370 49943
Vista 5,256 5240 5246 5219
% North County 10.3% 10.3% 10.4% 10.5%
Net Completions
North County 29 139 148 216
Vista 6 (3) (0) 16
% North County 21.4% (1.9%) 0.9% 4.5%
Occupancy Rate
North County 94.2% 95.3% 95.1% 94.9%
Vista 92.8% 94.7% 93.8% 94.1%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
North County 167 (13) 164 134
Vista (10) (14) 1 9
% North County (6.0%) (2.0%) 0.8% 65.6%
Overall Rents (NNN)
North County $25.0 $23 $22 $22
Vista $18.9 $18 $17 $18
vs. North County (24.6%) (20.9%) (20.8%) (20.0%)
Source: CoStar
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0 2
4 6
8 10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class A)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. Overall Office occupany and deliveries have decreased over the years
2. Overall and Class A Office and retail Rents are lower than the average rents in North County
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Vista Page 5 of 9 The Concord Group 100
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 95 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
OLDE CARLSBAD
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982
Olde Carlsbad 160 160 160 160
% Carlsbad 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
Net Completions
North County 0 102 98 151
Olde Carlsbad 0 0 0 2
% North County --- 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Occupancy Rate
North County 86.6% 84.4% 83.8% 81.6%
Olde Carlsbad 96.5% 97.6% 95.4% 91.2%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 77 150 127 139
Olde Carlsbad 4 (1) 1 1
% Carlsbad 5.8% 9.7% 6.4% 8.0%
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7
Olde Carlsbad $32.5 $34.7 $29.0 $29.8
vs. Carlsbad (0.6%) 11.4% (1.6%) 3.4%
Office Class B (Class A Office Not Available)
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,080 5,049 4,896 4,791
Olde Carlsbad 81 81 81 81
% Carlsbad 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%
Net Completions
North County 0 21 41 83
Olde Carlsbad 0 0 0 2
% North County --- 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Occupancy Rate
North County 87.6% 84.3% 84.5% 82.8%
Olde Carlsbad 95.7% 97.6% 93.6% 86.6%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 66 59 62 75
Olde Carlsbad 4 (1) 0 1
% Carlsbad 6.6% (40.8%) (16.8%) (11.1%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 $27.5
Olde Carlsbad $30.5 $30.5 $26.1 $28.5
vs. Carlsbad (5.1%) 1.4% (4.8%) 6.1%
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263
Olde Carlsbad 1,629 1629 1629 1629
% Carlsbad 28.6% 29.0% 30.0% 31.1%
Net Completions
North County 6 44 69 64
Olde Carlsbad 0 0 0 0
% North County 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Occupancy Rate
North County 91.4% 95.3% 96.2% 96.5%
Olde Carlsbad 89.0% 95.1% 97.1% 97.7%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 2 (26) 37 40
Olde Carlsbad 0 (34) (15) (11)
% Carlsbad 0.0% 11.1% 15.8% (7.6%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32
Olde Carlsbad --- $39 $27 $27
vs. Carlsbad --- 3.4% (12.4%) (14.9%)
Source: CoStar
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
20 25
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class B)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. No retail and class A office deliveries in last 10 yrs
2. High overall and class B office occupancy
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Olde Carlsbad Page 6 of 9 The Concord Group 101
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 96 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
SOUTH BEACH
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982
South Beach 140 140 140 131
% Carlsbad 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%
Net Completions
North County 0 102 98 151
South Beach 0 0 0 5
% North County --- 0.0% 0.0% 4.6%
Occupancy Rate
North County 86.6% 84.4% 83.8% 81.6%
South Beach 98.2% 90.1% 90.0% 88.9%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 77 150 127 139
South Beach 1 2 2 5
% Carlsbad 1.5% (16.0%) (4.9%) (1.4%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7
South Beach $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 $29.7
vs. Carlsbad 0.9% 26.6% 11.7% 5.0%
Office Class B
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,080 5,049 4,896 4,791
South Beach 140 140 140 131
% Carlsbad 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7%
Net Completions
North County 0 21 41 83
South Beach 0 0 0 5
% North County --- 0.0% 0.0% 5.7%
Occupancy Rate
North County 87.6% 84.3% 84.5% 82.8%
South Beach 98.2% 90.1% 90.0% 88.9%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 66 59 62 75
South Beach 1 2 2 5
% Carlsbad 1.7% 22.1% 14.2% 14.7%
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 $27.5
South Beach $33.0 $41.1 $32.1 $29.7
vs. Carlsbad 2.6% 29.1% 16.6% 10.2%
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263
South Beach 327 302 278 271
% Carlsbad 5.7% 5.4% 5.1% 5.1%
Net Completions
North County 6 44 69 64
South Beach 0 14 7 5
% North County 0.0% 16.1% 8.1% 8.7%
Occupancy Rate
North County 91.4% 95.3% 96.2% 96.5%
South Beach 97.1% 96.7% 97.7% 97.7%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 2 (26) 37 40
South Beach (3) 13 7 5
% Carlsbad (131.3%) 12.9% (6.5%) 6.7%
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32
South Beach --- $29 $32 $32
vs. Carlsbad --- (19.3%) (0.6%) (1.0%)
Source: CoStar
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class B)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-10
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. Office rents are slightly higher than Carlsbad average. Retail rents are lower compare to Carlsbad average.
2. No Class A Office Available in this Market.
3. High Office Occupany Rate
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: South Beach Page 7 of 9 The Concord Group 102
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 97 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982
IC 3,475 3,466 3,446 3,421
% Carlsbad 45.2% 46.0% 48.1% 49.2%
Net Completions
North County 0 102 98 151
IC 0 10 5 27
% North County --- 5.3% 3.5% 18.6%
Occupancy Rate
North County 86.6% 84.4% 83.8% 81.6%
IC 83.9% 79.2% 80.4% 79.3%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 77 150 127 139
IC 73 19 17 25
% Carlsbad 95.0% 46.6% 56.1% (32.3%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7
IC $32.9 $31.1 $29.3 $28.9
vs. Carlsbad 0.6% (0.2%) 0.9% 0.8%
Office Class A
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 2,244 2,127 1,930 1,825
IC 1,306 1,296 1,277 1,254
% Carlsbad 58.2% 61.2% 67.0% 69.6%
Net Completions
North County 0 81 58 68
IC 0 10 5 24
% North County --- 10.6% 7.1% 37.3%
Occupancy Rate
North County 83.6% 83.3% 80.3% 76.1%
IC 80.0% 78.7% 77.9% 75.8%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad (4) 97 66 67
IC (4) 21 10 22
% Carlsbad 87.3% 68.2% (2.0%) 6.5%
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $34.1 $32.8 $31.5 $31.4
IC $34.4 $32.9 $31.9 $31.9
vs. Carlsbad 1.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1.7%
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263
IC 789 789 787 774
% Carlsbad 13.8% 14.0% 14.5% 14.7%
Net Completions
North County 6 44 69 64
IC 0 0 1 5
% North County 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 13.5%
Occupancy Rate
North County 91.4% 95.3% 96.2% 96.5%
IC 97.2% 97.9% 97.2% 96.9%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 2 (26) 37 40
IC (1) (0) 3 4
% Carlsbad (45.3%) 5.7% 43.8% 45.5%
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32
IC $42.0 $43 $35 $34
vs. Carlsbad (5.1%) 18.0% 6.7% 3.9%
Source: CoStar
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-400
-300
-200
-100
0 100
200
300
400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class A)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-15
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. Around 60% of Class A office Inventory are located in Industrial Core
2. Office Rent level similar to Carlsbad average
3. The Pandemic has very limited impact on office and retial occupany 21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: IC Page 8 of 9 The Concord Group 103
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 98 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
VILLAGE
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982
Village 404 396 395 397
% Carlsbad 5.3% 5.3% 5.5% 5.7%
Net Completions
North County 0 102 98 151
Village 0 4 1 0
% North County --- 28.5% 18.1% 10.9%
Occupancy Rate
North County 86.6% 84.4% 83.8% 81.6%
Village 97.6% 96.7% 95.8% 95.8%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 77 150 127 139
Village 3 5 0 1
% Carlsbad 3.7% (13.2%) (14.3%) (2.7%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7
Village $33.7 $31.6 $28.5 $26.7
vs. Carlsbad 3.1% 1.6% (2.1%) (7.4%)
Office Class B (Class A Office Not Available)
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,080 5,049 4,896 4,791
Village 243 235 229 226
% Carlsbad 4.8% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7%
Net Completions
North County 0 21 41 83
Village 0 4 2 1
% North County --- 38.0% 23.6% 14.7%
Occupancy Rate
North County 87.6% 84.3% 84.5% 82.8%
Village 97.5% 97.0% 95.9% 96.2%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 66 59 62 75
Village 2 4 2 2
% Carlsbad 2.6% (269.2%) (138.8%) (94.4%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.2 $30.4 $28.0 $27.5
Village $35.9 $30.8 $28.2 $26.8
vs. Carlsbad 11.6% 1.8% 0.8% (2.5%)
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263
Village 737 716 708 699
% Carlsbad 12.9% 12.7% 13.0% 13.3%
Net Completions
North County 6 44 69 64
Village 6 4 4 4
% North County 100.0% 40.2% 22.4% 15.6%
Occupancy Rate
North County 91.4% 95.3% 96.2% 96.5%
Village 95.2% 95.9% 97.2% 97.4%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 2 (26) 37 40
Village 16 (3) 1 3
% Carlsbad 718.7% (6.0%) (4.4%) 16.2%
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32
Village $42.0 $35 $30 $27
vs. Carlsbad (5.1%) (2.4%) (9.8%) (15.6%)
Source: CoStar
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office (Class B)
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-40
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. High Overall and Class A office occpancy rates
2. No Class A Office available
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Village Page 9 of 9 The Concord Group 104
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 99 of 142
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EXHIBIT II-4C
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE - COMMERCIAL - OFFICE & RETAIL
AVIARA
1999 THROUGH 2022
QTD Annual Average
Land Use Type 2022 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr
Office (Not Avilable)
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 7,681 7,535 7,189 6,982
Aviara --- --- --- ---
% Carlsbad --- --- --- ---
Net Completions ---
North County 0 102 98 151
Aviara --- --- --- ---
% North County --- --- --- ---
Occupancy Rate
North County 86.6% 84.4% 83.8% 81.6%
Aviara --- --- --- ---
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 77 150 127 139
Aviara --- --- --- ---
% Carlsbad --- --- --- ---
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $32.7 $31.2 $29.1 $28.7
Aviara --- --- --- ---
vs. Carlsbad --- --- --- ---
Retail
Inventory (SF,000s)
Carlsbad 5,703 5623 5447 5263
Aviara 147 147 147 147
% Carlsbad 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8%
Net Completions
North County 6 44 69 64
Aviara 0 0 0 0
% North County 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Occupancy Rate
North County 91.4% 95.3% 96.2% 96.5%
Aviara 98.0% 95.7% 94.7% 95.7%
Net Absorption (SF, 000s)
Carlsbad 2 (26) 37 40
Aviara (0) 1 0 0
% Carlsbad (16.8%) (2.4%) (11.6%) (12.5%)
Overall Rents (NNN)
Carlsbad $44.3 $36 $33 $32
Aviara --- $47 $44 $44
vs. Carlsbad --- 33.5% 37.2% 39.1%
Source: CoStar
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-20
-15
-10
-5
0 5
10 15
20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Office
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0 2
4 6
8 10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
RBA (SF)
Retail
Absorption
Deliveries
Occupancy
1. High Overall and Class A office occpancy rates
2. No Class A Office available
21690.00 Submarket Historical Performance: Aviara Page 1 of 1 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 100 of 142
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Retail Opportunity Analysis
105
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 101 of 142
EXHIBIT III-1
RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - SUMMARY
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
JANUARY 2022
Cities within North County
Carlsbad Submarkets
Geography Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach
Industrial
Core/Kelly Ranch Aviara Poinsettia Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Demographics
Population ('21) 3,961 8,938 4,332 2,588 7,657 12,135 112,930 188,686 120,731 102,484 51,396 1,215,352 Households ('21) 1,925 3,569 1,779 1,014 3,116 4,739 44,107 65,981 37,935 34,046 20,619 419,160 % Carlsbad 4.4% 8.1% 4.0% 2.3% 7.1% 10.7% -- 149.6% 86.0% 77.2% 46.7% -- % North County 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 10.5% 15.7% 9.1% 8.1% 4.9% -- Ann. Growth (#, '21-'26) 139 34 15 5 106 28 1,081 1,697 1,345 1,552 345 12,326 % Carlsbad 12.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.5% 9.8% 2.6% --
% North County 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 8.8% 13.8% 10.9% 12.6% 2.8% -- Over $100K HH Growth 11 28 14 (39) 22 27 517 2,020 1,016 546 87 7,950 Under $100K HH Growth 128 6 1 44 84 1 564 (323) 329 1,006 258 4,376 Ann. Growth (%, '21-'26) 6.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 3.2% 0.6% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 1.6% 2.8% Household Size ('21) 2.06 2.50 2.44 2.55 2.46 2.56 2.56 2.86 3.18 3.01 2.49 2.90 Consumer Spending Patterns ('20)
Consumer Expenditures ($000) $66,040 $177,425 $109,885 $68,015 $238,762 $294,469 $2,592,205 $2,551,752 $1,370,582 $1,315,929 $1,323,438 $21,328,924 Per Capita $16,672 $19,851 $25,366 $26,281 $31,182 $24,266 $22,954 $13,524 $11,352 $12,840 $25,750 $17,550 Retail Sales ($000) $139,407 $205,781 $187,487 $853,136 $60,017 $343,548 $2,513,665 $1,784,936 $1,648,225 $1,488,395 $1,037,859 $15,707,699 Per Occupied Square Foot $201 $142 $591 $1,112 $412 $740 $482 $878 $337 $354 $197 $326 Spending Inflow/ (Leakage) $73,367 $28,356 $77,603 $785,121 ($178,744) $49,079 ($78,541) ($766,815) $277,643 $172,466 ($285,578) ($5,621,224) Retail Market Performance (2021 Q4)
Rentable Building Area (SF) 736,616 1,629,415 326,740 788,973 146,616 475,283 5,703,192 2,396,334 5,255,683 4,676,042 5,418,108 51,123,475 Annual Deliveries (SF)
Last Four Quarters 22,000 0 0 0 0 0 22,000 6,200 0 3,500 3,100 105,320 Five-Year Average 6,117 0 14,323 0 0 0 46,113 4,895 8,529 13,603 1,625 178,626 Ten-Year Average 5,595 0 7,161 582 0 20,064 70,303 2,862 7,343 11,598 3,349 241,299 Annual Net Absorption (SF)
Last Four Quarters 74,821 3,795 6,410 (6,052) (974) (1,880) (24,896) 3,203 (49,015) (148,200) 55,671 (157,029) Five-Year Average (383) (34,416) 13,681 907 434 (1,003) (25,901) (23,183) (17,573) (38,254) 5,069 (2,272) Ten-Year Average 1,665 (15,381) 6,925 2,851 181 18,782 36,694 (6,566) 244 (8,124) (18,056) 156,447 Vacancy Rate 5.7% 11.0% 2.9% 2.8% 0.8% 2.3% 8.6% 15.2% 6.9% 10.2% 2.8% 5.7% Vacant Stock (SF) 41,709 179,398 9,437 22,077 1,100 10,767 491,146 364,288 361,854 475,823 154,148 2,914,097 Asking Rent (NNN) $42.00 $39.00 $24.00 $42.00 --- --- $39.59 $28.00 $20.03 $20.46 $35.69 $25.35 Rent Growth
Five-Year Average 9.5% --- -10.6% 9.9% --- --- 3.3% 5.0% 4.0% 11.2% 1.7% 3.7% Ten-Year Average 14.0% 9.1% --- 2.5% --- --- 3.5% 7.4% 3.3% -0.6% 8.3% 3.3% Source: ESRI; US Census; CoStar
21690.00 Retail Trends: MktPerf Page 1 of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 102 of 142
EXHIBIT III-1
RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - INVENTORY
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2008 THROUGH 2021
Recent Inventory Growth Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Core/Kelly
Ranch Aviara Poinsettia Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas North County Current Inventory 736,616 1,629,415 326,740 788,973 146,616 475,283 5,703,192 2,396,334 5,255,683 4,676,042 5,418,108 51,123,475 New Deliveries Since 2008 67,806 0 71,614 48,203 0 193,585 873,169 74,995 191,914 -27,868 -231,860 2,360,530 % of Current Inventory 9.21% 0.00% 21.92% 6.11% 0.00% 40.73% 15.31% 3.13% 3.65% -0.60% -4.28% 4.62% #DIV/0!
Source: CoStar
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Retail RBA (SF)
Retail - Net New Inventory Growth since 2008
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas
21690.00 Retail Trends: Inv Page 2 of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 103 of 142
■ ■
EXHIBIT III-1
RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - OCCUPANCY TRENDS
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2009 THROUGH 2021
Annual Annual Average Qtr.
Market Factor 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5-Yr 10-Yr 4Q21 North County
Occ. Rate (Total) 93.5% 93.0% 93.6% 94.2% 94.5% 95.1% 95.2% 95.3% 96.2% 95.9% 95.9% 94.5% 94.0% 95.3% 95.1% 94.0% Y/Y % Change --- -0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% -0.3% 0.0% -1.4% -1.9% Carlsbad
Occ. Rate (Total) 95.9% 96.6% 96.7% 96.7% 97.0% 95.9% 96.9% 97.8% 97.6% 97.5% 97.1% 92.3% 91.5% 95.2% 96.0% 91.5% Y/Y % Change --- 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% -1.1% 1.0% 0.9% -0.2% -0.1% -0.4% -5.2% -5.6% Oceanside
Occ. Rate (Total) 85.0% 86.8% 89.4% 89.5% 91.0% 87.3% 87.4% 91.3% 91.1% 90.5% 88.8% 85.7% 85.6% 88.3% 88.8% 85.6% Y/Y % Change --- 1.8% 2.6% 0.1% 1.5% -3.7% 0.1% 3.9% -0.2% -0.6% -1.7% -4.8% -3.2% Vista
Occ. Rate (Total) 94.7% 91.7% 93.0% 92.6% 91.8% 92.7% 92.9% 94.5% 95.5% 96.0% 95.3% 94.1% 93.1% 94.8% 93.9% 93.1% Y/Y % Change --- -3.0% 1.3% -0.4% -0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% -0.7% -1.9% -2.2% San Marcos
Occ. Rate (Total) 92.6% 91.0% 92.8% 93.9% 91.2% 92.4% 93.5% 94.3% 96.4% 91.7% 90.9% 92.3% 89.2% 92.1% 92.6% 89.2% Y/Y % Change --- -1.6% 1.8% 1.1% -2.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 2.1% -4.7% -0.8% 0.6% -1.7% Encinitas
Occ. Rate (Total) 93.8% 93.7% 94.8% 96.8% 97.6% 98.4% 98.1% 96.9% 98.5% 97.6% 97.8% 96.5% 97.5% 97.6% 97.6% 97.5% Y/Y % Change --- -0.1% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% -0.3% -1.2% 1.6% -0.9% 0.2% -1.1% -0.3% Village
Occ. Rate (Total) 96.3% 98.6% 98.3% 97.7% 99.1% 98.8% 99.9% 98.5% 98.5% 98.9% 97.2% 86.6% 94.2% 95.1% 96.9% 94.2% Y/Y % Change --- 2.3% -0.3% -0.6% 1.4% -0.3% 1.1% -1.4% 0.0% 0.4% -1.7% -12.3% -3.0% Olde Carlsbad
Occ. Rate (Total) 98.8% 98.4% 98.4% 98.5% 99.4% 99.3% 99.1% 99.6% 99.3% 99.4% 98.9% 88.8% 89.0% 95.1% 97.1% 89.0% Y/Y % Change --- -0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% -0.1% -0.2% 0.5% -0.3% 0.1% -0.5% -10.6% -9.9% South Beach
Occ. Rate (Total) 95.8% 98.9% 98.9% 97.4% 98.0% 98.6% 99.1% 99.2% 98.2% 92.4% 96.1% 96.4% 98.4% 96.3% 97.4% 98.4% Y/Y % Change --- 3.1% 0.0% -1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% -1.0% -5.8% 3.7% 4.0% 2.3% Industrial Core/Kelly Ranch
Occ. Rate (Total) 95.8% 98.9% 98.9% 97.4% 98.0% 98.6% 99.1% 99.2% 98.2% 92.4% 96.1% 96.4% 98.4% 96.3% 97.4% 98.4% Y/Y % Change --- 3.1% 0.0% -1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% -1.0% -5.8% 3.7% 4.0% 2.3% Aviara
Occ. Rate (Total) 96.6% 96.6% 94.5% 95.0% 95.6% 97.0% 97.4% 96.8% 97.3% 98.1% 98.7% 98.1% 97.4% 97.9% 97.1% 97.4% Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% -2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% -0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% -1.3% Poinsettia
Occ. Rate (Total) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 94.3% 100.0% 100.0% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.2% 98.8% 99.6% 99.2% 98.8% Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -5.7% 5.7% 0.0% -0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -1.2% Source: CoStar
85%
90%
95%
100%
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 Total Occupancy Rate
Retail Occupancy
North County Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Encinitas 85%
90%
95%
100%
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 Total Occupancy Rate
Retail Occupancy
Village Olde Carlsbad South Beach Industrial Core/Kelly Ranch Aviara Poinsettia 21690.00 Retail Trends: Occ Page 3 of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 104 of 142
' ---------------------------------------------------- :-------~, ---------------------------------------------------- '---- ____ , EXHIBIT III-1
RETAIL MARKET PERFORMANCE - RENT TRENDS
PRIMARY MARKET AREA
2009 THROUGH 2021
Annual Annual Average Qtr.
Market Factor 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5-Yr 10-Yr 4Q21 North County
Rental Rate (NNN) $23.77 $22.42 $22.12 $20.85 $20.40 $21.18 $20.56 $20.63 $22.16 $24.92 $20.14 $24.14 $25.39 $23.35 $22.04 $25.39 Y/Y % Change --- -5.7% -1.3% -5.7% -2.2% 3.8% -2.9% 0.3% 7.4% 12.5% -19.2% 19.9% 5.2% Carlsbad
Rental Rate (NNN) $28.12 $33.48 $31.68 $26.45 $25.08 $31.33 $33.34 $35.99 $40.29 $41.98 $32.80 $35.47 $37.63 $37.63 $34.04 $37.63 Y/Y % Change --- 19.1% -5.4% -16.5% -5.2% 24.9% 6.4% 7.9% 11.9% 4.2% -21.9% 8.1% 6.1% Oceanside
Rental Rate (NNN) $21.58 $20.72 $20.76 $19.10 $18.73 $18.92 $20.60 $21.00 $22.89 $20.63 $18.71 $20.38 $29.48 $22.42 $21.04 $29.48 Y/Y % Change --- -4.0% 0.2% -8.0% -1.9% 1.0% 8.9% 1.9% 9.0% -9.9% -9.3% 8.9% 44.7% Vista
Rental Rate (NNN) $19.59 $17.32 $16.44 $16.33 $15.88 $16.45 $16.64 $16.52 $17.69 $15.98 $17.21 $17.21 $20.62 $17.74 $17.05 $20.62 Y/Y % Change --- -11.6% -5.1% -0.7% -2.8% 3.6% 1.2% -0.7% 7.1% -9.7% 7.7% 0.0% 19.8% San Marcos
Rental Rate (NNN) $25.41 $23.06 $20.37 $20.12 $19.98 $22.08 $12.36 $11.58 $10.79 $21.53 $9.01 $21.55 $19.82 $16.54 $16.88 $19.82 Y/Y % Change --- -9.2% -11.7% -1.2% -0.7% 10.5% -44.0% -6.3% -6.8% 99.5% -58.2% 139.2% -8.0% Encinitas
Rental Rate (NNN) $25.83 $23.12 $29.36 $28.89 $29.28 $28.72 $30.61 $32.15 $25.44 $28.87 $30.78 $33.30 $34.22 $30.52 $30.23 $34.22 Y/Y % Change --- -10.5% 27.0% -1.6% 1.3% -1.9% 6.6% 5.0% -20.9% 13.5% 6.6% 8.2% 2.8% Village
Rental Rate (NNN) $20.77 $20.54 $22.59 $22.16 $19.80 $28.98 $24.60 $25.06 $29.62 $33.87 $33.99 $45.64 $42.00 $37.02 $30.57 $42.00 Y/Y % Change --- -1.1% 10.0% -1.9% -10.6% 46.4% -15.1% 1.9% 18.2% 14.3% 0.4% 34.3% -8.0% Olde Carlsbad
Rental Rate (NNN) $25.41 $25.23 $21.96 $21.75 $21.73 $22.18 --- --- --- --- --- $39.00 $39.00 $39.00 $28.73 $39.00 Y/Y % Change --- -0.7% -13.0% -1.0% -0.1% 2.1% --- --- --- --- --- --- 0.0% South Beach
Rental Rate (NNN) $18.00 --- --- --- --- $34.26 $40.09 $42.00 --- $35.73 $26.53 $24.00 $24.00 $27.57 $32.37 $24.00 Y/Y % Change --- --- --- --- --- --- 17.0% 4.8% --- --- -25.7% -9.5% 0.0% Industrial Core/Kelly Ranch
Rental Rate (NNN) $25.04 $39.29 $37.18 $22.80 $26.88 $26.17 $25.66 $38.32 $40.19 $48.80 $42.00 $42.00 $42.00 $43.00 $35.48 $42.00 Y/Y % Change --- 56.9% -5.4% -38.7% 17.9% -2.6% -1.9% 49.3% 4.9% 21.4% -13.9% 0.0% 0.0% Aviara
Rental Rate (NNN) $42.00 $42.00 $42.00 $42.00 --- $42.22 $41.97 $40.93 $46.17 $45.92 $48.00 $47.55 $48.15 $47.16 $44.77 $48.15 Y/Y % Change --- 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% --- --- -0.6% -2.5% 12.8% -0.5% 4.5% -0.9% 1.3% Poinsettia
Rental Rate (NNN) $33.00 $36.86 $39.00 - $38.52 - - $36.00 - - $39.48 - $51.00 $51.00 Y/Y % Change --- 11.7% 5.8% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Source: CoStar
$5
$15
$25
$35
$45
$55
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 Lease Rate ($/Sf/Yr)
Retail Annual Lease Rate (NNN)
North County Carlsbad Oceanside San Marcos Vista Encinitas $5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1
Lease Rate ($/Sf/Yr)
Retail Annual Lease Rate (NNN)
Olde Carlsbad Village South Beach Industrial Core/Kelly Ranch Aviara 21690.00 Retail Trends: Rents Page 4 of 4 THE CONCORD GROUP DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 105 of 142
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EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $89,70 6,079 13% $78,044,289 $691 5% $27,908,245 $50,136,044 64% Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $65,261,582 13% $56,777,576 $503 4% $76,484,789 ($19,707,213) (35%) Books
& Music $10,244,367 13% $8,912,599 $79 1% $3,204,326 $5,708,273 64% Depart
ment Stores $234,805,086 13% $204,280,425 $1,809 13% $147,154,241 $57,126,184 28% Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $20,228,951 13% $17,599,187 $156 1% $28,930,570 ($11,331,383) (64%) Electr
onics/Appliances $87,848,467 13% $76,428,166 $677 5% $78,599,006 ($2,170,840) (3%) Clothi
ng & Accessories $173,069,217 13% $150,570,219 $1,333 9% $240,644,876 ($90,074,657) (60%) Other
General Merchandise $153,684,809 13% $133,705,784 $1,184 8% $195,571,957 ($61,866,173) (46%) GAFO T
otal: $834,848,558 $726,318,245 $6,432 45% $798,498,010 ($72,179,765) (10%) Non-GA
FO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $260,652,748 13% $226,767,891 $2,008 14% $247,717,007 ($20,949,116) (9%) Floris
t $4,683,957 13% $4,075,043 $36 0% $3,991,592 $83,451 2% Used M
erch $9,462,742 13% $8,232,586 $73 1% $1,647,731 $6,584,855 80% Other
Misc. Stores $52,879,105 13% $46,004,821 $407 3% $114,669,876 ($68,665,055) (149%) Health
& Personal Care $159,811,819 13% $139,036,283 $1,231 9% $226,343,901 ($87,307,618) (63%) Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $147,014,263 13% $127,902,409 $1,133 8% $116,174,748 $11,727,661 9% Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $371,803,401 13% $323,468,959 $2,864 20% $245,360,207 $78,108,752 24% Non-GA
FO Total: $1,006,308,035 $875,487,990 $7,752 55% $955,905,062 ($80,417,072) (9%) Total
Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $1,841,156,593 $1,601,806,236 $14,184 100% $1,754,403,072 ($152,596,836) (8%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $198,880,296 $198,880,296 $1,761 26% $111,570,095 $87,310,201 44% Motor Vehicle $481,999,978 $481,999,978 $4,268 64% $620,704,895 ($138,704,917) (29%) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $70,168,220 $70,1 68,220 $621 9% $26,986,471 $43,181,749 62% Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $751,048,494 $751,048,494 $6,651 100% $759,261,461 ($8,212,967) (1%) Total: $
2,592,205,087 $2,352,854,730 $20,835 100% $2,513,664,533 ($160,809,803) (7%) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: Gap Page 1 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 106 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $483/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $89,70 6,079 13% $78,044,289 $27,908,245 31% $50,136,044 105,55 0 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books $65,261,582 13% $56,777,576 $76,484,789 117% ($19,707,213) (41,48 9) Books & Music $10,24 4,367 13% $8,912,599 $3,204,326 31% $5,708,273 12,017 D
epartment Stores $234,805,086 13% $204,280,425 $147,154,241 63% $57,126,184 120,26 6 Office Supplies, Gift Stores $20,228,951 13% $17,599,187 $28,930,570 143% ($11,331,383) (23,85 6) Electronics/Appliances $87,84 8,467 13% $76,428,166 $78,599,006 89% ($2,170,840) (4,570 ) Clothing & Accessories $173,0 69,217 13% $150,570,219 $240,644,876 139% ($90,074,657) (189,6 31) Other General Merchandise $153,684,809 13% $133,705,784 $195,571,957 127% ($61,866,173) (130,2 45) GAFO Total: $834,8 48,558 $726,318,245 $798,498,010 96% ($72,179,765) 1,836,777 $435 $475 (151,957) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($72,179,765) Net Inflow/ Outflow (151,957) Non-GAFO
Eating
& Drinking Places (Restaurants) $260,652,748 13% $226,767,891 $247,717,007 95% ($20,949,116) (44,10 3) Florist $4,683 ,957 13% $4,075,043 $3,991,592 85% $83,451 176 Used
Merch $9,462,742 13% $8,232,586 $1,647,731 17% $6,584,855 13,863 O
ther Misc. Stores $52,879,105 13% $46,004,821 $114,669,876 217% ($68,665,055) (144,5 58) Health & Personal Care $159,8 11,819 13% $139,036,283 $226,343,901 142% ($87,307,618) (183,8 06) Building/Garden Materials $147,014,263 13% $127,902,409 $116,174,748 79% $11,727,661 24,690 F
ood & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $371,803,401 13% $323,468,959 $245,360,207 66% $78,108,752 164,43 9 Non-GAFO Total: $1,006,308,035 $875,487,990 $955,905,062 95% ($80,417,072) 2,214,010 $432 $475 (169,299) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($80,417,072) Net Inflow/ Outflow (169,299) Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $1,841,156,593 $1,601,8 06,236 $1,754,403,072 95% ($152,596,836) 4,050,787 $433 $475 (321,256) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($152,596,836) Net Inflow/ Outflow (321,256) Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas St
ations $198,880,296 $198,880,296 $111,570,095 56% $87,310,201 174,620 Motor Vehicle $481,999,978 $481,999,978 $620,704,895 129% ($138,704,917) (277,4 10) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $70,168,220 $70,168,220 $26,98 6,471 38% $43,181,749 86,363 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $751,048,494 $751,048,494 $759,261,461 101% ($8,212,967) 1,652,405 $459 $500 (16,426) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($8,212,967) Net Inflow/ Outflow (16,426) All Spending Categories: $2,592,205,087 $2,352,854,730 $2,51 3,664,533 97% ($160,809,803) 5,703,192 $441 $483 (337,682) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow ($160,809,803) Net Inflow/ Outflow (337,682) (2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemand Page 2 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 107 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 44,107 44,321 44,536 44,752 44,970 45,188 1,081 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Population - Baseline 112,930 113,532 114,136 114,744 115,356 115,970 3,040 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Persons/HH 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.57 2.57
Households - Uplift (1) 44,107 44,360 44,615 44,871 45,129 45,388 1,281 % Growth 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Population - Uplift 112,930 113,632 114,338 115,049 115,764 116,483 # Growth 702 706 711 715 719 3,553
% Growth 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Median Household Income $120,203 $122,674 $125,197 $127,771 $130,398 $133,079 Growth 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $14,184 $14,476 $14,773 $15,077 $15,387 $15,703 Per HH $36,316 $37,080 $37,861 $38,657 $39,471 $40,301
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $10.2 $10.4 $10.7 $11.0 $11.3 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $483 $483 $483 $483 $483
Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 21,021 21,587 22,167 22,764 23,376 110,915 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -9,638 -9,638 -9,638 -9,638 -9,638 -48,188 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF 12,545
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemand Page 3 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 108 of 142
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $2,359 ,612 13% $2,052,862 $793 5% $5,668,355 ($3,615,493) (176%) Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $1,733,427 13% $1,508,081 $583 4% $47,035,454 ($45,527,373) (3019%) Books
& Music $273,877 13% $238,273 $92 1% $0 $238,273 100%
Depart
ment Stores $6,199,065 13% $5,393,187 $2,084 13% $3,128,530 $2,264,657 42% Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $531,518 13% $462,421 $179 1% $1,163,376 ($700,955) (152%) Electr
onics/Appliances $2,358,808 13% $2,052,163 $793 5% $30,538,019 ($28,485,856) (1388%) Clothi
ng & Accessories $4,653,298 13% $4,048,369 $1,564 10% $74,799,511 ($70,751,142) (1748%) Other
General Merchandise $4,005,801 13% $3,485,047 $1,347 8% $2,488,899 $996,148 29% GAFO T
otal: $22,115,406 $19,240,403 $7,434 46% $164,822,144 ($145,581,741) (757%) Non-GA
FO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $6,905,068 13% $6,007,409 $2,321 14% $30,520,538 ($24,513,129) (408%) Floris
t $121,922 13% $106,072 $41 0% $758,542 ($652,470) (615%) Used M
erch $252,073 13% $219,304 $85 1% $0 $219,304 100%
Other
Misc. Stores $1,390,219 13% $1,209,491 $467 3% $95,402,135 ($94,192,644) (7788%) Health
& Personal Care $4,198,696 13% $3,652,866 $1,411 9% $9,361,197 ($5,708,331) (156%) Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $3,792,731 13% $3,299,676 $1,275 8% $8,857,806 ($5,558,130) (168%) Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $9,768,235 13% $8,498,364 $3,284 20% $4,865,047 $3,633,317 43% Non-GA
FO Total: $26,428,944 $22,993,181 $8,885 54% $149,765,265 ($126,772,084) (551%) Total
Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $48,544,350 $42,233,585 $16,319 100% $314,587,409 ($272,353,825) (561%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $5,163,493 $5,163,493 $1,995 27% $4,497,813 $665,680 13% Motor Vehicle $12,436,170 $12,436,170 $4,805 64% $524,814,868 ($512,378,698) (4120%) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $1,871,141 $1,87 1,141 $723 10% $9,235,759 ($7,364,618) (394%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $19,470,804 $19,470,804 $7,523 100% $538,548,440 ($519,077,636) (2666%) Total: $
68,015,154 $61,704,389 $23,842 100% $853,135,849 ($791,431,461) (1283%) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: GapIC Page 4 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 109 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $353/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $2,359 ,612 13% $2,052,862 $5,668,355 240% ($3,615,493) (18,07 7) Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books $1,733,427 13% $1,508,081 $47,035,454 2713% ($45,527,373) (227,6 37) Books & Music $273,8 77 13% $238,273 $0 0% $238,273 1,191 De
partment Stores $6,199,065 13% $5,393,187 $3,128,530 50% $2,264,657 11,323 O
ffice Supplies, Gift Stores $531,518 13% $462,421 $1,163,376 219% ($700,955) (3,505 ) Electronics/Appliances $2,358 ,808 13% $2,052,163 $30,538,019 1295% ($28,485,856) (142,4 29) Clothing & Accessories $4,653 ,298 13% $4,048,369 $74,799,511 1607% ($70,751,142) (353,7 56) Other General Merchandise $4,005 ,801 13% $3,485,047 $2,488,899 62% $996,148 4,981 GA
FO Total: $22,115,406 $19,240,403 $164,822,144 745% ($145,581,741) 947,811 $174 $200 (727,909) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($145,581,741) Net Inflow/ Outflow (727,909) Non-GAFO
Eating
& Drinking Places (Restaurants) $6,905,068 13% $6,007,409 $30,520,538 442% ($24,513,129) (153,2 07) Florist $121,9 22 13% $106,072 $758,542 622% ($652,470) (4,078 ) Used Merch $252,0 73 13% $219,304 $0 0% $219,304 1,371
Ot
her Misc. Stores $1,390,219 13% $1,209,491 $95,402,135 6862% ($94,192,644) (588,7 04) Health & Personal Care $4,198 ,696 13% $3,652,866 $9,361,197 223% ($5,708,331) (35,67 7) Building/Garden Materials $3,792 ,731 13% $3,299,676 $8,857,806 234% ($5,558,130) (34,73 8) Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $9,768,235 13% $8,498,364 $4,865,047 50% $3,633,317 22,708 N
on-GAFO Total: $26,428,944 $22,993,181 $149,765,265 567% ($126,772,084) 1,132,679 $132 $160 (792,326) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($126,772,084) Net Inflow/ Outflow (792,326) Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $48,544,350 $42,233,585 $314,587,409 648% ($272,353,825) 2,080,490 $151 $180 (1,520,234) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($272,353,825) Net Inflow/ Outflow (1,520,234) Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas St
ations $5,163,493 $5,163,493 $4,497,813 87% $665,680 951 Motor Vehicle $12,436,170 $12,436,170 $524,814,868 4220% ($512,378,698) (731,9 70) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $1,871,141 $1,871,141 $9,235,7 59 494% ($7,364,618) (10,52 1) Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $19,470,804 $19,470,80 4 $538,548,440 2766% ($519,077,636) 834,470 $645 $700 (741,539) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($519,077,636) Net Inflow/ Outflow (741,539) All Spending Categories: $68,01 5,154 $61,704,389 $853,135,849 1254% ($791,431,461) 2,914,960 $293 $353 (2,261,774) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow ($791,431,461) Net Inflow/ Outflow (2,261,774) (2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandIC Page 5 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 110 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
INDUSTRIAL CORE/KELLY RANCH
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 1,014 1,015 1,016 1,017 1,018 1,019 5 % Growth 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Population - Baseline 2,588 2,593 2,597 2,602 2,606 2,611 23 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Persons/HH 2.55 2.55 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56
Households - Uplift (1) 1,014 1,052 1,092 1,132 1,175 1,219 205 % Growth 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Population - Uplift 2,588 2,687 2,790 2,897 3,008 3,123 # Growth 99 103 107 111 115 535
% Growth 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
Median Household Income $120,548 $123,160 $125,828 $128,554 $131,339 $134,185 Growth 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $16,319 $16,673 $17,034 $17,403 $17,780 $18,165 Per HH $41,650 $42,586 $43,543 $44,522 $45,522 $46,545
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $353 $353 $353 $353 $353
Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 4,681 4,965 5,267 5,588 5,927 26,428 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -45,607 -45,607 -45,607 -45,607 -45,607 -228,035 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF (40,321)
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandIC Page 6 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 111 of 142
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
POINSETTIA
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $10,17 6,481 13% $8,853,538 $730 5% $2,796,364 $6,057,174 68% Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $7,394,623 13% $6,433,322 $530 4% $3,095,477 $3,337,845 52% Books
& Music $1,160,772 13% $1,009,872 $83 1% $0 $1,009,872 100% Depart
ment Stores $26,666,924 13% $23,200,224 $1,912 13% $0 $23,200,224 100% Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $2,298,237 13% $1,999,466 $165 1% $1,105,850 $893,616 45% Electr
onics/Appliances $9,829,436 13% $8,551,609 $705 5% $16,265,088 ($7,713,479) (90%) Clothi
ng & Accessories $19,599,502 13% $17,051,567 $1,405 9% $8,089,364 $8,962,203 53% Other
General Merchandise $17,519,379 13% $15,241,860 $1,256 8% $187,910,368 ($172,668,508) (1133%) GAFO T
otal: $94,645,354 $82,341,458 $6,785 45% $219,262,511 ($136,921,053) (166%) Non-GA
FO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $29,698,947 13% $25,838,084 $2,129 14% $20,542,483 $5,295,601 20% Floris
t $540,622 13% $470,341 $39 0% $688,772 ($218,431) (46%) Used M
erch $1,069,841 13% $930,762 $77 1% $0 $930,762 100%
Other
Misc. Stores $5,978,432 13% $5,201,236 $429 3% $2,922,682 $2,278,554 44% Health
& Personal Care $17,966,875 13% $15,631,181 $1,288 9% $16,040,454 ($409,273) (3%) Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $16,619,577 13% $14,459,032 $1,192 8% $45,321,686 ($30,862,654) (213%) Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $42,286,741 13% $36,789,465 $3,032 20% $10,410,984 $26,378,481 72% Non-GA
FO Total: $114,161,035 $99,320,100 $8,185 55% $95,927,061 $3,393,039 3% Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $208,806,389 $181,661,558 $14,970 100% $315,189,572 ($133,528,014) (64%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $22,632,754 $22,632,754 $1,865 26% $15,803,241 $6,829,513 30% Motor Vehicle $55,110,413 $55,110,413 $4,541 64% $6,862,101 $48,248,312 88% Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $7,918,966 $7,91 8,966 $653 9% $5,692,628 $2,226,338 28% Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $85,662,133 $85,662,133 $7,059 100% $28,357,970 $57,304,163 67% Total: $294,468,522 $267,323,691 $22,029 100% $343,547,542 ($76,223,851) (29%) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: GapPoi Page 7 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 112 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
POINSETTIA
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $757/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $10,17 6,481 13% $8,853,538 $2,796,364 27% $6,057,174 4,121 Sp
orting Goods/Hobby/Books $7,394,623 13% $6,433,322 $3,095,477 42% $3,337,845 2,271 Bo
oks & Music $1,160,772 13% $1,009,872 $0 0% $1,009,872 687 Depa
rtment Stores $26,666,924 13% $23,200,224 $0 0% $23,200,224 15,782 O
ffice Supplies, Gift Stores $2,298,237 13% $1,999,466 $1,105,850 48% $893,616 608 Elec
tronics/Appliances $9,829,436 13% $8,551,609 $16,265,088 165% ($7,713,479) (5,247 ) Clothing & Accessories $19,59 9,502 13% $17,051,567 $8,089,364 41% $8,962,203 6,097 Ot
her General Merchandise $17,519,379 13% $15,241,860 $187,910,368 1073% ($172,668,508) (117,4 62) GAFO Total: $94,64 5,354 $82,341,458 $219,262,511 232% ($136,921,053) 152,761 $1,435 $1,470 (93,144) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($136,921,053) Net Inflow/ Outflow (93,144) Non-GAFO
Eating
& Drinking Places (Restaurants) $29,698,947 13% $25,838,084 $20,542,483 69% $5,295,601 9,456 Fl
orist $540,622 13% $470,341 $688,772 127% ($218,431) (390) Us
ed Merch $1,069 ,841 13% $930,762 $0 0% $930,762 1,662
Ot
her Misc. Stores $5,978,432 13% $5,201,236 $2,922,682 49% $2,278,554 4,069 He
alth & Personal Care $17,966,875 13% $15,631,181 $16,040,454 89% ($409,273) (731) Bu
ilding/Garden Materials $16,61 9,577 13% $14,459,032 $45,321,686 273% ($30,862,654) (55,11 2) Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $42,286,741 13% $36,789,465 $10,410,984 25% $26,378,481 47,104 N
on-GAFO Total: $114,161,035 $99,320,100 $95,927,061 84% $3,393,039 184,260 $521 $560 6,059 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $3,393 ,039 Net Inflow/ Outflow 6,059
Excl
. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $208,806,389 $181,661,558 $315,189,572 151% ($133,528,014) 337,021 $935 $1,015 (87,085) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($133,528,014) Net Inflow/ Outflow (87,085) Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas St
ations $22,632,754 $22,632,754 $15,803,241 70% $6,829,513 28,456 Motor Vehicle $55,110,413 $55,110,413 $6,862,101 12% $48,248,312 201,035 Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $7,918,966 $7,918,966 $5,692,628 72% $2,226,338 9,276 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $85,662,133 $85,662,133 $28,357,970 33% $57,304,163 138,262 $205 $240 238,767 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $57,30 4,163 Net Inflow/ Outflow 238,76 7
All Spending Categories: $294,468,522 $267,323,691 $343,547,542 117% ($76,223,851) 475,283 $723 $757 151,683 (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow ($76,223,851) Net Inflow/ Outflow 151,68 3 (2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandPoi Page 8 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 113 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
POINSETTIA
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 4,739 4,745 4,750 4,756 4,761 4,767 28 % Growth 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Population - Baseline 12,135 12,155 12,176 12,196 12,217 12,237 102 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Persons/HH 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.56 2.57 2.57
Households - Uplift (1) 4,739 4,784 4,829 4,875 4,921 4,967 228 % Growth 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Population - Uplift 12,135 12,256 12,378 12,501 12,625 12,750 # Growth 121 122 123 124 126 615
% Growth 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Median Household Income $118,990 $121,169 $123,387 $125,646 $127,946 $130,289 Growth 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $14,970 $15,244 $15,523 $15,807 $16,097 $16,392 Per HH $38,333 $39,055 $39,789 $40,538 $41,301 $42,078
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.8 $1.9 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $757 $757 $757 $757 $757
Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 2,431 2,500 2,571 2,644 2,719 12,865 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -2,613 -2,613 -2,613 -2,613 -2,613 -13,063 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF (39)
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandPoi Page 9 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 114 of 142
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
OLDE CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $6,021 ,924 13% $5,239,074 $586 5% $1,819,054 $3,420,020 65% Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $4,390,234 13% $3,819,504 $427 3% $3,067,647 $751,857 20% Books
& Music $711,385 13% $618,905 $69 1% $1,903,178 ($1,284,273) (208%) Depart
ment Stores $16,043,993 13% $13,958,274 $1,562 13% $77,974,045 ($64,015,771) (459%) Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $1,376,808 13% $1,197,823 $134 1% $2,736,167 ($1,538,344) (128%) Electr
onics/Appliances $5,971,479 13% $5,195,187 $581 5% $4,736,484 $458,703 9% Clothi
ng & Accessories $11,916,765 13% $10,367,586 $1,160 9% $74,133,310 ($63,765,724) (615%) Other
General Merchandise $10,592,408 13% $9,215,395 $1,031 8% $2,259,370 $6,956,025 75% GAFO T
otal: $57,024,996 $49,611,747 $5,551 45% $168,629,255 ($119,017,508) (240%) Non-GA
FO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $17,814,308 13% $15,498,448 $1,734 14% $20,095,739 ($4,597,291) (30%) Floris
t $338,840 13% $294,791 $33 0% $0 $294,791 100%
Used M
erch $642,173 13% $558,691 $63 1% $148,072 $410,619 73% Other
Misc. Stores $3,577,677 13% $3,112,579 $348 3% $135,452 $2,977,127 96% Health
& Personal Care $10,985,992 13% $9,557,813 $1,069 9% $8,300,626 $1,257,187 13% Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $9,885,552 13% $8,600,430 $962 8% $1,700,537 $6,899,893 80% Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $25,745,101 13% $22,398,238 $2,506 20% $1,480,820 $20,917,418 93% Non-GA
FO Total: $68,989,643 $60,020,989 $6,715 55% $31,861,246 $28,159,743 47% Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $126,014,639 $109,632,736 $12,266 100% $200,490,501 ($90,857,765) (72%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $13,704,490 $13,704,490 $1,533 27% $3,598,420 $10,106,070 74% Motor Vehicle $32,762,202 $32,762,202 $3,665 64% $1,380,810 $31,381,392 96% Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $4,943,501 $4,94 3,501 $553 10% $310,886 $4,632,615 94% Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $51,410,193 $51,410,193 $5,752 100% $5,290,116 $46,120,077 90% Total: $177,424,832 $161,042,929 $18,018 100% $205,780,617 ($44,737,688) (28%) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: Gapcar Page 10 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 115 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
OLDE CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $147/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $6,021 ,924 13% $5,239,074 $1,819,054 30% $3,420,020 9,771 Sp
orting Goods/Hobby/Books $4,390,234 13% $3,819,504 $3,067,647 70% $751,857 2,148 Bo
oks & Music $711,385 13% $618,905 $1,903,178 268% ($1,284,273) (3,669 ) Department Stores $16,04 3,993 13% $13,958,274 $77,974,045 486% ($64,015,771) (182,9 02) Office Supplies, Gift Stores $1,376 ,808 13% $1,197,823 $2,736,167 199% ($1,538,344) (4,395 ) Electronics/Appliances $5,971 ,479 13% $5,195,187 $4,736,484 79% $458,703 1,311 Cl
othing & Accessories $11,916,765 13% $10,367,586 $74,133,310 622% ($63,765,724) (182,1 88) Other General Merchandise $10,592,408 13% $9,215,395 $2,259,370 21% $6,956,025 19,874 G
AFO Total: $57,024,996 $49,611,747 $168,629,255 296% ($119,017,508) 523,700 $322 $350 (340,050) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($119,017,508) Net Inflow/ Outflow (340,050) Non-GAFO
Eating
& Drinking Places (Restaurants) $17,814,308 13% $15,498,448 $20,095,739 113% ($4,597,291) (65,67 6) Florist $338,8 40 13% $294,791 $0 0% $294,791 4,211
Us
ed Merch $642,173 13% $558,691 $148,072 23% $410,619 5,866 Ot
her Misc. Stores $3,577,677 13% $3,112,579 $135,452 4% $2,977,127 42,530 H
ealth & Personal Care $10,985,992 13% $9,557,813 $8,300,626 76% $1,257,187 17,960 B
uilding/Garden Materials $9,885,552 13% $8,600,430 $1,700,537 17% $6,899,893 98,570 F
ood & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $25,745,101 13% $22,398,238 $1,480,820 6% $20,917,418 298,82 0 Non-GAFO Total: $68,989,643 $60,020,989 $31,861,246 46% $28,159,743 633,580 $50 $70 402,282 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $28,15 9,743 Net Inflow/ Outflow 402,28 2
Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $126,014,639 $109,632,736 $200,490,501 159% ($90,857,765) 1,157,280 $173 $210 62,232 Net Inf
low/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($90,857,765) Net Inflow/ Outflow 62,232 G
as/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $13,704,490 $13,704,490 $3,598,420 26% $10,106,070 505,304 Motor Vehicle $32,762,202 $32,762,202 $1,380,810 4% $31,381,392 1,569,070 Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $4,943,501 $4,943,501 $310,886 6% $4,632,615 231,631 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $51,410,193 $51,410,193 $5,290,116 10% $46,120,077 472,135 $11 $20 2,306,004 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $46,12 0,077 Net Inflow/ Outflow 2,306, 004 All Spending Categories: $177,424,832 $161,042,929 $205,780,617 116% ($44,737,688) 1,629,415 $126 $147 2,368,236 (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow ($44,737,688) Net Inflow/ Outflow $2,368 ,236 (2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandcar Page 11 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 116 of 142
-------□---□
I I
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
OLDE CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 3,569 3,576 3,583 3,589 3,596 3,603 34 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Population - Baseline 8,938 8,957 8,977 8,996 9,016 9,035 97 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Persons/HH 2.50 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51
Households - Uplift (1) 3,569 3,615 3,661 3,708 3,755 3,803 234 % Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Population - Uplift 8,938 9,055 9,173 9,292 9,414 9,537 # Growth 117 118 120 121 123 599
% Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Median Household Income $99,106 $100,823 $102,569 $104,346 $106,153 $107,992 Growth 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $12,266 $12,478 $12,695 $12,914 $13,138 $13,366 Per HH $30,718 $31,258 $31,808 $32,368 $32,937 $33,516
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $1.6 $1.6 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $147 $147 $147 $147 $147
Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 9,922 10,226 10,539 10,861 11,193 52,741 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,867 1,867 9,335 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF 12,415
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandcar Page 12 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 117 of 142
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
VILLAGE
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $2,118 ,616 13% $1,843,196 $465 4% $711,139 $1,132,057 61% Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $1,628,258 13% $1,416,584 $358 3% $2,612,457 ($1,195,873) (84%) Books
& Music $274,124 13% $238,488 $60 1% $0 $238,488 100%
Depart
ment Stores $6,072,209 13% $5,282,822 $1,334 13% $0 $5,282,822 100% Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $515,889 13% $448,823 $113 1% $2,154,786 ($1,705,963) (380%) Electr
onics/Appliances $2,147,893 13% $1,868,667 $472 5% $2,741,717 ($873,050) (47%) Clothi
ng & Accessories $4,388,284 13% $3,817,807 $964 9% $15,355,863 ($11,538,056) (302%) Other
General Merchandise $4,129,402 13% $3,592,580 $907 9% $695,737 $2,896,843 81% GAFO T
otal: $21,274,675 $18,508,967 $4,673 45% $24,271,699 ($5,762,732) (31%) Non-GA
FO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $6,664,379 13% $5,798,010 $1,464 14% $56,663,659 ($50,865,649) (877%) Floris
t $94,329 13% $82,066 $21 0% $206,875 ($124,809) (152%) Used M
erch $241,631 13% $210,219 $53 1% $962,468 ($752,249) (358%) Other
Misc. Stores $1,393,497 13% $1,212,342 $306 3% $2,841,224 ($1,628,882) (134%) Health
& Personal Care $4,221,833 13% $3,672,995 $927 9% $5,774,680 ($2,101,685) (57%) Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $3,100,465 13% $2,697,405 $681 7% $8,077,676 ($5,380,271) (199%) Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $10,115,377 13% $8,800,378 $2,222 21% $20,125,930 ($11,325,552) (129%) Non-GA
FO Total: $25,831,511 $22,473,415 $5,674 55% $94,652,512 ($72,179,097) (321%) Total
Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $47,106,186 $40,982,382 $10,346 100% $118,924,211 ($77,941,829) (165%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $5,281,535 $5,281,535 $1,333 28% $8,687,418 ($3,405,883) (64%) Motor
Vehicle $11,881,259 $11,881,259 $3,000 63% $11,795,077 $86,182 1% Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $1,770,703 $1,77 0,703 $447 9% $0 $1,770,703 100% Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $18,933,497 $18,933,497 $4,780 100% $20,482,495 ($1,548,998) (8%) Total: $
66,039,683 $59,915,879 $15,126 100% $139,406,706 ($79,490,827) (133%) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: Gapvil Page 13 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 118 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
VILLAGE
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $198/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $2,118 ,616 13% $1,843,196 $711,139 34% $1,132,057 9,056 Sp
orting Goods/Hobby/Books $1,628,258 13% $1,416,584 $2,612,457 160% ($1,195,873) (9,567 ) Books & Music $274,1 24 13% $238,488 $0 0% $238,488 1,908 De
partment Stores $6,072,209 13% $5,282,822 $0 0% $5,282,822 42,263 O
ffice Supplies, Gift Stores $515,889 13% $448,823 $2,154,786 418% ($1,705,963) (13,64 8) Electronics/Appliances $2,147 ,893 13% $1,868,667 $2,741,717 128% ($873,050) (6,984 ) Clothing & Accessories $4,388 ,284 13% $3,817,807 $15,355,863 350% ($11,538,056) (92,30 4) Other General Merchandise $4,129 ,402 13% $3,592,580 $695,737 17% $2,896,843 23,175 G
AFO Total: $21,274,675 $18,508,967 $24,271,699 114% ($5,762,732) 237,301 $102 $125 (46,102) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($5,762,732) Net Inflow/ Outflow (46,102) Non-GAFO
Eating
& Drinking Places (Restaurants) $6,664,379 13% $5,798,010 $56,663,659 850% ($50,865,649) (145,3 30) Florist $94,32 9 13% $82,066 $206,875 219% ($124,809) (357) Us
ed Merch $241,6 31 13% $210,219 $962,468 398% ($752,249) (2,149 ) Other Misc. Stores $1,393 ,497 13% $1,212,342 $2,841,224 204% ($1,628,882) (4,654 ) Health & Personal Care $4,221 ,833 13% $3,672,995 $5,774,680 137% ($2,101,685) (6,005 ) Building/Garden Materials $3,100 ,465 13% $2,697,405 $8,077,676 261% ($5,380,271) (15,37 2) Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $10,115,377 13% $8,800,378 $20,125,930 199% ($11,325,552) (32,35 9) Non-GAFO Total: $25,83 1,511 $22,473,415 $94,652,512 366% ($72,179,097) 288,128 $329 $350 (206,226) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($72,179,097) Net Inflow/ Outflow (206,226) Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $47,106,186 $40,982,382 $118,924,211 252% ($77,941,829) 525,429 $226 $238 (252,328) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($77,941,829) Net Inflow/ Outflow (252,328) Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas St
ations $5,281,535 $5,281,535 $8,687,418 164% ($3,405,883) (28,38 2) Motor Vehicle $11,88 1,259 $11,881,259 $11,795,077 99% $86,182 718 Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $1,770,703 $1,770,703 $0 0% $1,770,703 14,756 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $18,933,497 $18,933,497 $20,482,495 108% ($1,548,998) 211,187 $97 $120 (12,908) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($1,548,998) Net Inflow/ Outflow (12,908) All Spending Categories: $66,03 9,683 $59,915,879 $139,406,706 211% ($79,490,827) 736,616 $189 $198 (265,236) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow ($79,490,827) Net Inflow/ Outflow (265,236) (2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandvil Page 14 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 119 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
VILLAGE
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 1,925 1,952 1,979 2,007 2,035 2,064 139 % Growth 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Population - Baseline 3,961 4,011 4,061 4,112 4,164 4,216 255 % Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Persons/HH 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.04
Households - Uplift (1) 1,925 1,988 2,054 2,122 2,192 2,264 339 % Growth 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Population - Uplift 3,961 4,086 4,214 4,347 4,483 4,625 # Growth 125 129 133 137 141 664
% Growth 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Median Household Income $78,661 $79,402 $80,151 $80,906 $81,668 $82,438 Growth 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $10,346 $10,444 $10,542 $10,642 $10,742 $10,843 Per HH $21,290 $21,459 $21,629 $21,801 $21,974 $22,149
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.3 $1.4 $1.4 $1.5 $1.5 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $198 $198 $198 $198 $198
Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 6,562 6,832 7,114 7,407 7,712 35,626 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -7,570 -7,570 -7,570 -7,570 -7,570 -37,849 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF (445)
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandvil Page 15 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 120 of 142
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
SOUTH BEACH
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $3,837 ,146 13% $3,338,317 $771 5% $0 $3,338,317 100% Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $2,769,876 13% $2,409,792 $556 4% $798,109 $1,611,683 67% Books
& Music $431,330 13% $375,257 $87 1% $0 $375,257 100%
Depart
ment Stores $9,914,122 13% $8,625,286 $1,991 13% $0 $8,625,286 100% Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $859,171 13% $747,479 $173 1% $0 $747,479 100% Electr
onics/Appliances $3,804,690 13% $3,310,080 $764 5% $2,078,244 $1,231,836 37% Clothi
ng & Accessories $7,352,220 13% $6,396,431 $1,477 9% $7,481,542 ($1,085,111) (17%) Other
General Merchandise $6,444,582 13% $5,606,786 $1,294 8% $695,737 $4,911,049 88% GAFO T
otal: $35,413,137 $30,809,429 $7,112 45% $11,053,632 $19,755,797 64% Non-GAFO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $10,997,877 13% $9,568,153 $2,209 14% $42,443,143 ($32,874,990) (344%) Floris
t $201,048 13% $174,912 $40 0% $1,032,752 ($857,840) (490%) Used M
erch $403,038 13% $350,643 $81 1% $0 $350,643 100%
Other
Misc. Stores $2,269,096 13% $1,974,114 $456 3% $1,263,945 $710,169 36% Health
& Personal Care $6,921,107 13% $6,021,363 $1,390 9% $12,371,381 ($6,350,018) (105%) Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $6,360,647 13% $5,533,763 $1,277 8% $7,095,156 ($1,561,393) (28%) Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $15,659,105 13% $13,623,421 $3,145 20% $20,189,791 ($6,566,370) (48%) Non-GA
FO Total: $42,811,918 $37,246,369 $8,598 55% $84,396,168 ($47,149,799) (127%) Total
Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $78,225,055 $68,055,798 $15,710 100% $95,449,800 ($27,394,002) (35%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $8,343,499 $8,343,499 $1,926 26% $29,683,349 ($21,339,850) (256%) Motor
Vehicle $20,304,909 $20,304,909 $4,687 64% $54,032,121 ($33,727,212) (166%) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $3,011,247 $3,01 1,247 $695 10% $8,322,111 ($5,310,864) (176%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $31,659,655 $31,659,655 $7,308 100% $92,037,581 ($60,377,926) (191%) Total: $
109,884,710 $99,715,453 $23,018 100% $187,487,381 ($87,771,928) (88%) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: Gapsou Page 16 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 121 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
SOUTH BEACH
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $603/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $3,837 ,146 13% $3,338,317 $0 0% $3,338,317 26,707 S
porting Goods/Hobby/Books $2,769,876 13% $2,409,792 $798,109 29% $1,611,683 12,893 B
ooks & Music $431,330 13% $375,257 $0 0% $375,257 3,002 De
partment Stores $9,914,122 13% $8,625,286 $0 0% $8,625,286 69,002 O
ffice Supplies, Gift Stores $859,171 13% $747,479 $0 0% $747,479 5,980 El
ectronics/Appliances $3,804,690 13% $3,310,080 $2,078,244 55% $1,231,836 9,855 Cl
othing & Accessories $7,352,220 13% $6,396,431 $7,481,542 102% ($1,085,111) (8,681 ) Other General Merchandise $6,444 ,582 13% $5,606,786 $695,737 11% $4,911,049 39,288 G
AFO Total: $35,413,137 $30,809,429 $11,053,632 31% $19,755,797 105,300 $105 $125 158,046 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $19,75 5,797 Net Inflow/ Outflow 158,04 6
Non-GAFO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $10,997,877 13% $9,568,153 $42,443,143 386% ($32,874,990) (47,99 3) Florist $201,0 48 13% $174,912 $1,032,752 514% ($857,840) (1,252 ) Used Merch $403,0 38 13% $350,643 $0 0% $350,643 512
Othe
r Misc. Stores $2,269,096 13% $1,974,114 $1,263,945 56% $710,169 1,037 He
alth & Personal Care $6,921,107 13% $6,021,363 $12,371,381 179% ($6,350,018) (9,270 ) Building/Garden Materials $6,360 ,647 13% $5,533,763 $7,095,156 112% ($1,561,393) (2,279 ) Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $15,659,105 13% $13,623,421 $20,189,791 129% ($6,566,370) (9,586 ) Non-GAFO Total: $42,81 1,918 $37,246,369 $84,396,168 197% ($47,149,799) 127,300 $663 $685 (68,832) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($47,149,799) Net Inflow/ Outflow (68,832) Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $78,225,055 $68,055,798 $95,449,800 122% ($27,394,002) 232,601 $410 $405 89,215 Net Inf
low/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($27,394,002) Net Inflow/ Outflow 89,215 G
as/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $8,343,499 $8,343,499 $29,683,349 356% ($21,339,850) (21,34 0) Motor Vehicle $20,30 4,909 $20,304,909 $54,032,121 266% ($33,727,212) (33,72 7) Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $3,011,247 $3,011,247 $8,322,1 11 276% ($5,310,864) (5,311 ) Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $31,659,655 $31,659,65 5 $92,037,581 291% ($60,377,926) 94,139 $978 $1,000 (60,378) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($60,377,926) Net Inflow/ Outflow (60,378) All Spending Categories: $109,8 84,710 $99,715,453 $187,487,381 171% ($87,771,928) 326,740 $574 $603 28,837 (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow ($87,771,928) Net Inflow/ Outflow 28,837 (
2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandsou Page 17 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 122 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
SOUTH BEACH
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 1,779 1,782 1,785 1,788 1,791 1,794 15 % Growth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Population - Baseline 4,332 4,346 4,361 4,375 4,390 4,404 72 % Growth 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Persons/HH 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.45 2.45 2.45
Households - Uplift (1) 1,779 1,820 1,862 1,905 1,949 1,994 215 % Growth 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Population - Uplift 4,332 4,439 4,549 4,661 4,777 4,895 # Growth 107 110 113 115 118 563
% Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Median Household Income $117,248 $119,965 $122,745 $125,590 $128,500 $131,478 Growth 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $15,710 $16,074 $16,447 $16,828 $17,218 $17,617 Per HH $38,255 $39,205 $40,178 $41,176 $42,199 $43,246
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $603 $603 $603 $603 $603
Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 2,855 2,993 3,139 3,291 3,450 15,728 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps 2,676 2,676 2,676 2,676 2,676 13,382 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF 5,822
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandsou Page 18 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 123 of 142
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
RANCHO LA COSTA
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $16,84 5,030 13% $14,655,176 $827 5% $9,204,393 $5,450,783 37% Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $12,094,149 13% $10,521,910 $594 4% $12,714,080 ($2,192,170) (21%) Books
& Music $1,880,044 13% $1,635,638 $92 1% $0 $1,635,638 100% Depart
ment Stores $43,508,654 13% $37,852,529 $2,136 13% $69,674,000 ($31,821,471) (84%) Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $3,782,133 13% $3,290,456 $186 1% $2,775,946 $514,510 16% Electr
onics/Appliances $16,356,829 13% $14,230,441 $803 5% $10,399,049 $3,831,392 27% Clothi
ng & Accessories $32,016,852 13% $27,854,661 $1,572 9% $57,148,056 ($29,293,395) (105%) Other
General Merchandise $28,495,216 13% $24,790,838 $1,399 8% $0 $24,790,838 100% GAFO T
otal: $154,978,907 $134,831,649 $7,609 45% $161,915,524 ($27,083,875) (20%) Non-GA
FO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $48,121,662 13% $41,865,846 $2,362 14% $25,490,501 $16,375,345 39% Floris
t $945,422 13% $822,517 $46 0% $757,730 $64,787 8%
Used M
erch $1,754,217 13% $1,526,169 $86 1% $148,072 $1,378,097 90% Other
Misc. Stores $9,884,521 13% $8,599,533 $485 3% $0 $8,599,533 100% Health
& Personal Care $30,438,925 13% $26,481,865 $1,494 9% $14,151,855 $12,330,010 47% Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $28,511,289 13% $24,804,821 $1,400 8% $3,815,257 $20,989,564 85% Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $69,034,855 13% $60,060,324 $3,389 20% $27,277,204 $32,783,120 55% Non-GA
FO Total: $188,690,891 $164,161,075 $9,264 55% $71,640,619 $92,520,456 56% Total Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $343,669,798 $298,992,724 $16,872 100% $233,556,143 $65,436,581 19% Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $36,629,877 $36,629,877 $2,067 26% $14,391,978 $22,237,899 61% Motor Vehicle $90,016,810 $90,016,810 $5,080 64% $0 $90,016,810 100% Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $13,244,870 $13,2 44,870 $747 9% $89,769 $13,155,101 99% Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $139,891,557 $139,891,557 $7,894 100% $14,481,747 $125,409,810 90% Total: $483,561,355 $438,884,281 $24,766 100% $248,037,890 $190,846,391 43% (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: GapRL Page 19 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 124 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
RANCHO LA COSTA
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $413/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $16,84 5,030 13% $14,655,176 $9,204,393 55% $5,450,783 6,607 Sp
orting Goods/Hobby/Books $12,094,149 13% $10,521,910 $12,714,080 105% ($2,192,170) (2,657 ) Books & Music $1,880 ,044 13% $1,635,638 $0 0% $1,635,638 1,983 De
partment Stores $43,508,654 13% $37,852,529 $69,674,000 160% ($31,821,471) (38,57 1) Office Supplies, Gift Stores $3,782 ,133 13% $3,290,456 $2,775,946 73% $514,510 624 Elec
tronics/Appliances $16,356,829 13% $14,230,441 $10,399,049 64% $3,831,392 4,644 Cl
othing & Accessories $32,016,852 13% $27,854,661 $57,148,056 178% ($29,293,395) (35,50 7) Other General Merchandise $28,495,216 13% $24,790,838 $0 0% $24,790,838 30,050 G
AFO Total: $154,978,907 $134,831,649 $161,915,524 104% ($27,083,875) 204,877 $790 $825 (32,829) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($27,083,875) Net Inflow/ Outflow (32,829) Non-GAFO
Eating
& Drinking Places (Restaurants) $48,121,662 13% $41,865,846 $25,490,501 53% $16,375,345 51,985 F
lorist $945,422 13% $822,517 $757,730 80% $64,787 206
Used
Merch $1,754,217 13% $1,526,169 $148,072 8% $1,378,097 4,375 Ot
her Misc. Stores $9,884,521 13% $8,599,533 $0 0% $8,599,533 27,300 H
ealth & Personal Care $30,438,925 13% $26,481,865 $14,151,855 46% $12,330,010 39,143 B
uilding/Garden Materials $28,511,289 13% $24,804,821 $3,815,257 13% $20,989,564 66,634 F
ood & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $69,034,855 13% $60,060,324 $27,277,204 40% $32,783,120 104,07 3 Non-GAFO Total: $188,690,891 $164,161,075 $71,640,619 38% $92,520,456 249,443 $287 $315 293,716 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $92,52 0,456 Net Inflow/ Outflow 293,71 6
Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $343,669,798 $298,992,724 $233,556,143 68% $65,436,581 454,319 $514 $570 260,887 Net Inf
low/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: $65,43 6,581 Net Inflow/ Outflow 260,88 7 Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $36,629,877 $36,629,877 $14,391,978 39% $22,237,899 222,379 Motor Vehicle $90,016,810 $90,016,810 $0 0% $90,016,810 900,168 Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $13,244,870 $13,244,870 $89,769 1% $13,155,101 131,551 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $139,891,557 $139,891,557 $14,481,747 10% $125,409,810 184,932 $78 $100 1,254,098 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $125,4 09,810 Net Inflow/ Outflow 1,254, 098 All Spending Categories: $483,561,355 $438,884,281 $248,037,890 51% $190,846,391 639,251 $388 $413 1,514,985 (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow $190,8 46,391 Net Inflow/ Outflow 1,514, 985 (2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandRL Page 20 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 125 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
RANCHO LA COSTA
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 7,035 7,070 7,106 7,141 7,177 7,213 178 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Population - Baseline 17,721 17,808 17,895 17,983 18,071 18,160 439 % Growth 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Persons/HH 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52
Households - Uplift (1) 7,035 7,109 7,184 7,259 7,336 7,413 378 % Growth 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Population - Uplift 17,721 17,906 18,092 18,281 18,471 18,664 # Growth 185 187 188 190 192 943
% Growth 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Median Household Income $141,373 $142,907 $144,458 $146,026 $147,611 $149,213 Growth 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $16,872 $17,055 $17,240 $17,428 $17,617 $17,808 Per HH $42,501 $42,958 $43,419 $43,886 $44,358 $44,835
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $3.1 $3.2 $3.3 $3.4 $3.4 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $413 $413 $413 $413 $413
Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 7,618 7,781 7,947 8,117 8,291 39,754 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps 7,827 7,827 7,827 7,827 7,827 39,133 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF 15,777
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandRL Page 21 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 126 of 142
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CONSUMER SPENDING
ROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Consumer Spending
Capacity (Demand) Gap
Spending Category Total E-commerce Per Capita Share Actual Sales $ % I. All Spending Share (3) Adjusted Sales
GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B)
Furniture $3,443 ,617 13% $2,995,947 $474 5% $6,476,953 ($3,481,006) (116%) Sporti
ng Goods/Hobby/Books $2,456,298 13% $2,136,979 $338 4% $7,538,493 ($5,401,514) (253%) Books
& Music $373,165 13% $324,654 $51 1% $944,258 ($619,604) (191%) Depart
ment Stores $8,852,380 13% $7,701,571 $1,217 13% $0 $7,701,571 100% Office
Supplies, Gift Stores $775,241 13% $674,460 $107 1% $22,779,159 ($22,104,699) (3277%) Electr
onics/Appliances $3,309,184 13% $2,878,990 $455 5% $4,388,661 ($1,509,671) (52%) Clothi
ng & Accessories $6,304,875 13% $5,485,241 $867 9% $12,339,975 ($6,854,734) (125%) Other
General Merchandise $5,902,906 13% $5,135,528 $812 8% $521,803 $4,613,725 90% GAFO T
otal: $31,417,666 $27,333,369 $4,321 45% $54,989,302 ($27,655,933) (101%) Non-GA
FO
Eating & Drinking Places (Restaurants) $9,738,844 13% $8,472,794 $1,339 14% $7,710,202 $762,592 9% Floris
t $171,294 13% $149,026 $24 0% $275,833 ($126,807) (85%) Used M
erch $353,464 13% $307,514 $49 1% $296,144 $11,370 4%
Other
Misc. Stores $2,054,333 13% $1,787,270 $283 3% $2,135,406 ($348,136) (19%) Health
& Personal Care $6,223,045 13% $5,414,049 $856 9% $161,967,560 ($156,553,511) (2892%) Buildi
ng/Garden Materials $5,840,160 13% $5,080,939 $803 8% $28,103,996 ($23,023,057) (453%) Food &
Beverage (Grocery Stores) $14,104,097 13% $12,270,564 $1,940 20% $1,995,757 $10,274,807 84% Non-GA
FO Total: $38,485,237 $33,482,156 $5,293 55% $202,484,898 ($169,002,742) (505%) Total
Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store: $69,902,903 $60,815,526 $9,614 100% $257,474,200 ($196,658,674) (281%) Gas/Mot
or Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas Stations $7,759,641 $7,759,641 $1,227 27% $7,195,989 $563,652 7% Motor Vehicle $18,779,194 $18,779,194 $2,969 64% $1,989,512 $16,789,682 89% Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $2,585,510 $2,58 5,510 $409 9% $0 $2,585,510 100% Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store Total: $29,124,345 $29,124,345 $4,604 100% $9,185,501 $19,938,844 68% Total: $99,027,248 $89,939,871 $14,217 100% $266,659,701 ($176,719,830) (196%) (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other (2) I
ncludes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) Note: Gray = categories with spending gap (3) 13% E-Commerce spending based on reported national average as of 4Q21 US census Note: Red = inflow of spending from outside the trade area Source
: ESRI
21690.00 Retail Demand: GapRR Page 22 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 127 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - CURRENT OPPORTUNITY GAPS
ROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
I. Consumer Spending Opportunity Gap Demand Potential
Inflow/ Outflow
Unfulfilled
Consumer Spending Inflow/ Outflow Existing Current Target Retail Space Consumer E-commerce Actual Sales/ From Outside the Retail Retail Sales Retail Sales Outflow (SF) Spending Categories Demand Share Adjusted Demand Sales Demand Market Space (SF) (3) per SF per SF @ $1333/SF GAFO (1) (A) (B) (A - B )
Furniture $3,443 ,617 13% $2,995,947 $6,476,953 188% ($3,481,006) (3,607 ) Sporting Goods/Hobby/Books $2,456,298 13% $2,136,979 $7,538,493 307% ($5,401,514) (5,597 ) Books & Music $373,1 65 13% $324,654 $944,258 253% ($619,604) (642) De
partment Stores $8,852 ,380 13% $7,701,571 $0 0% $7,701,571 7,981 Of
fice Supplies, Gift Stores $775,241 13% $674,460 $22,779,159 2938% ($22,104,699) (22,90 6) Electronics/Appliances $3,309 ,184 13% $2,878,990 $4,388,661 133% ($1,509,671) (1,564 ) Clothing & Accessories $6,304 ,875 13% $5,485,241 $12,339,975 196% ($6,854,734) (7,103 ) Other General Merchandise $5,902 ,906 13% $5,135,528 $521,803 9% $4,613,725 4,781 GA
FO Total: $31,417,666 $27,333,369 $54,989,302 175% ($27,655,933) 58,474 $940 $965 (28,659) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($27,655,933) Net Inflow/ Outflow (28,659) Non-GAFO
Eating
& Drinking Places (Restaurants) $9,738,844 13% $8,472,794 $7,710,202 79% $762,592 268 Flor
ist $171,294 13% $149,026 $275,833 161% ($126,807) (44) Use
d Merch $353,4 64 13% $307,514 $296,144 84% $11,370 4
Other
Misc. Stores $2,054,333 13% $1,787,270 $2,135,406 104% ($348,136) (122) He
alth & Personal Care $6,223 ,045 13% $5,414,049 $161,967,560 2603% ($156,553,511) (54,93 1) Building/Garden Materials $5,840 ,160 13% $5,080,939 $28,103,996 481% ($23,023,057) (8,078 ) Food & Beverage (Grocery Stores) $14,104,097 13% $12,270,564 $1,995,757 14% $10,274,807 3,605 No
n-GAFO Total: $38,485,237 $33,482,156 $202,484,898 526% ($169,002,742) 71,628 $2,827 $2,850 (59,299) Net Inflow/ Outflow ($169,002,742) Net Inflow/ Outflow (59,299) Excl. Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store Total: $69,902,903 $60,815,526 $257,474,200 368% ($196,658,674) 130,102 $1,979 $1,908 (87,958) Net Inflow/ Outflow from GAFO & Non-GAFO spending: ($196,658,674) Net Inflow/ Outflow (87,958) Gas/Motor Vehicle/Non-Store
Gas St
ations $7,759,641 $7,759,641 $7,195,989 93% $563,652 3,047 Motor Vehicle $18,779,194 $18,779,194 $1,989,512 11% $16,789,682 90,755 Other Non-Store Retailers (2) $2,585,510 $2,585,510 $0 0% $2,585,510 13,976 Gas/ Motor Vehicle/ Non-Store Total: $29,124,345 $29,124,345 $9,185,501 32% $19,938,844 54,206 $169 $185 107,778 Net Inf
low/ Outflow $19,93 8,844 Net Inflow/ Outflow 107,77 8
All Spending Categories: $99,027,248 $89,939,871 $266,659,701 269% ($176,719,830) 184,308 $1,447 $1,333 19,819 (1) GAFO=General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other Net Inflow/ Ou tflow ($176,719,830) Net Inflow/ Outflow 19,819 (
2) Includes vending machine operators and direct-selling establishments (online sales) (3) Es
timated by % share of consumer demand spending total Note: Gray = categories with spending gap Sources: ESRI; CoStar Note: Red = inf low of spending from outside the trade area 21690.00 Retail Demand: CurrentDemandRR Page 23 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 128 of 142
D
EXHIBIT III-2
RETAIL - DEMAND - TOTAL RETAIL SPACE
ROBERTSON/RANCHO CARLSBAD
JANUARY 2022
Projected 2021 -
Conditions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2026
I. Projected Retail Spending and Supportable Demand
Population and Income Growth:
Households - Baseline 2,397 2,441 2,486 2,532 2,579 2,627 230 % Growth 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Population - Baseline 6,326 6,453 6,583 6,715 6,850 6,988 662 % Growth 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Persons/HH 2.64 2.64 2.65 2.65 2.66 2.66
Households - Uplift (1) 2,397 2,477 2,561 2,646 2,735 2,827 430 % Growth 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Population - Uplift 6,326 6,549 6,779 7,018 7,264 7,520 # Growth 223 230 239 247 256 1,194
% Growth 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Median Household Income $115,867 $119,036 $122,292 $125,637 $129,073 $132,603 Growth 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Total Spending (Excluding Vehicle/Gas/Non-Store):
Per Capita $9,614 $9,877 $10,147 $10,424 $10,709 $11,002 Per HH $25,372 $26,107 $26,863 $27,641 $28,442 $29,267
New HH Added Spending Capacity (MM) $2.2 $2.3 $2.5 $2.6 $2.8 Sales/ Square Foot (1) $1,333 $1,333 $1,333 $1,333 $1,333 Additional Supportable GLA from New HH Spend 1,649 1,753 1,865 1,983 2,109 9,359 Additional Supportable GLA from Current Gaps -2,639 -2,639 -2,639 -2,639 -2,639 -13,194 15% Penetration of Current Spending Gaps
Annual SF (767)
(1) Household Uplift from COVID-19 migration and anticipated developments 21690.00 Retail Demand: FutureDemandRR Page 24 of 24 The Concord Group DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 129 of 142
Newport Beach
369 San Miguel Dr, #265
Newport Beach, CA 92660
(949) 717-6450
Los Angeles
10000 Washington Blvd, #7113
Culver City, CA 90232
(949) 717-6450
San Francisco
251 Kearny Sr, 6th Floor
San Francisco, CA
94108
(415) 397-5490
Austin
201 W 5th St, 11th Floor #21
Austin, TX 7870
1 (512) 287-4530
Atlanta
725 Ponce De Leon Ave, #315
Atlanta, GA 30306
(404) 879-5000
122
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 130 of 142
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC ACTIONS 2023
DRAFT
Exhibit 3
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 131 of 142
{city of
Carlsbad
__..::::::;
City of Carlsbad
The Economic Development Strategic Plan is a roadmap that will guide the City’s economic development activities for the next fi ve years. The Strategy comes at a critical time for the City and the community. Given the pandemic, subsequent recovery, market pressures, and international confl ict, it is more important than ever to identify Carlsbad’s economic development strategies and to prepare for future challenges. The Strategic Plan provides fl exible and agile guidance for Carlsbad to address City Council’s goal of economic vitality: fostering a vibrant community.
This Economic Development Strategic Actions document accompanies the Strategic Plan as a guide for the tactical actions that will build toward achieving the overarching goals and objectives in the Strategic Plan. The Strategic Actions will allow the City to reprioritize or realign strategies as economic conditions chage or if priorities shift throughout the tenure of the Strategic Plan.
While the Innovation and Economic Development Department (I&ED) is the lead on these efforts, economic development is collaborative, and is not limited to one department, group, or organization.
The Strategy and Strategic Actions document thoughtfully involve multiple City departments, local and regional partners, workforce and talent, residents, and the broad and diverse businesses that support the community.
As such, the Strategic Actions are intended to assist the City in aligning its program priorities to match the market opportunities identified in the Strategic Plan. While the Strategic Actions document assigns timeframes to each tactic, it does not make staffing recommendations regarding the implementation of these programs. I&ED is a small, but mighty department, however, with its limited economic development staff, it may not be possible to implement all of the proposed actions without additional staff and resources.
The Strategic Actions document assumes that new activities and programs would be phased in over several years and acknowledges that many of the proposed tactics involve activities that the City is already undertaking. It also provides an initial indication of cost, using a range of $ - $$$. This range will be further clarified to a more-specific cost estimate for each tactic and updated on an annual basis.
The City of Carlsbad believes in transparency and accountability, and as such, staff will regularly update the Economic Development Subcommittee on the progress made on the goals and objectives in the Strategic Plan and Strategic Actions document.
| 2 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 132 of 142
__..:::::::;
City of Carlsbad Economic Development
Strategic Plan Goals
GOAL 1: Support Small Businesses,
Startups & Entrepreneurs
Support Small Businesses, Startups &
Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and
regional collaborators, supporting the long-term
viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in
Carlsbad.
GOAL 2: Develop Workforce
and Attract Talent
Develop and attract workers and talent by
providing skills, resources, and support for
current and future jobs.
GOAL 3: Grow and Support
Key Industries
Grow and support key industries by providing
and creating resources for these industries to
thrive in Carlsbad’s economy.
GOAL 4: Encourage Placemaking
and Engagement
Encourage a sense of connection in our
community by building upon our successes and
promoting access to economic development
resources and opportunities.
CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 3 | DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 133 of 142
Goal 1: Support Small Businesses, Startups & Entrepreneurs in partnership with local and regional collaborators, supporting the long-term viability of entrepreneurs and small businesses in Carlsbad.
Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.1:
Educate the public
on the permitting and
entitlement process
and provide City staff
with the knowledge
and resources they
need to provide such
information
Strategic Action 1.1.1: Celebrate staff’s role
in economic development of Carlsbad and
continue to educate on how their work can
lead to success and economic health in
the City.
High Year 1 $ I&ED Everyone is
Economic
Development
training
Percentage
increase in
customers rating
service as good
or excellent
Strategic Action 1.1.2: Continually
review the planning application and
permitting procedures to identify process
improvements.
High Ongoing $ CD Audit of
procedures
Percentage
increase in
customers rating
service as good
or excellent
Objective 1.2:
Provide a positive
customer service
experience during the
permitting process.
Strategic Action 1.2.1: Evaluate creation of
a one stop shop permit center that allows
customers to access resources related to
the permitting process in one location.
Medium Year 3 $$ CD Consolidate
digital
resources;
Conduct
assessment of
physical space
Percentage of
participants that
rate programs as
good or excellent
Strategic Action 1.2.2: Continue the
implementation of the Customer Self
Service program within the permitting
application system, Energov, to increase
the number of applications available online.
High Year 1 $$ CD Number of
online permits
available
Percentage
increase
in online
applications
Strategic Action 1.2.3: Increase ability
for customers to track the status of their
projects online.
High Year 3 $$ CD Number of
online permits
available
Percentage
increase
in online
applications
Strategic Action 1.2.4: Promote the
pre-application program to help identify
major issues early in the entitlement
process.
High Year 1 $ CD Pre-app
information on
website and
bulletin
Percentage
increase in pre-
application
Strategic Action 1.2.5: Enhance the
Welcome to Carlsbad Program for new
businesses by providing information
and resources on the pre-application
program, permitting process, and business
resources.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Create bulletins
with resource
information
Percentage
increase in
customers rating
service as good
or excellent
Strategic Action 1.2.6: Create an option
for applicants to request project resolution
issue meetings to resolve high priority,
time-sensitive issues with senior level
Development Services staff.
Medium Year 4 $ CD Creation
of project
resolution team
Number of
applicants that
rate service as
good or excellent
Strategic Action 1.2.7: Evaluate a potential
economic development priority project
designation for planning and permitting
review that could included expedited
review, enhanced communication and/or
other allowances.
Low Year 5 $ CD Identify priority
projects;
Identify options
to expedite
Percent
decrease in
permitting review
process
| 4 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 134 of 142
Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.2:
Continued
Strategic Action 1.2.8: Create a program
to give planning and building staff better
insight into operations in key industries,
thereby giving a better understanding of
development need.
Low Year 4 $ I&ED Creation
of training
program
Percentage
increase in
customers rating
service as good
or excellent
Strategic Action 1.2.9: Evaluate potential
solutions to give a clearer understanding of
zoning prior to submittal. (OpenCounter)
Medium Year 4 $$ CD Identify
and create
educational
resrouces
Percentage
increase in
customers rating
service as good
or excellent
Strategic Action 1.2.10: Utilizing Energov,
track turnaround times for planning
applications and permits to identify areas to
increase efficiency.
Medium Year 1 $ CD Establish
current
turnaround
times; Identify
targets
Percentage
decrease in turn
around times
Objective 1.3:
Empower small
businesses and
entrepreneurs with
resources they need
to be successful in
Carlsbad
Strategic Action 1.3.1: Create Small
Business and Entrepreneur Symposium on
basic and critical issues for small business
owners. Topics could include marketing,
social media, finance, human resources,
access to capital, technology, and more.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Partner with
business
organizations
to create
Symposium
Percentage of
participants that
rate event as
good or great
Strategic Action 1.3.2: Partner with
business organizations to develop a shop
local initiative to encourage patronage at
Carlsbad businesses.
Low Mid $ I&ED Create shop
local program
Number of
participants
Strategic Action 1.3.3: Expand partnerships
with entrepreneur support organizations
and regional business partners to connect
entrepreneurs with resources, networks,
and capital.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Identify
entrepreneur
support
organizations
Percentage
increase in
number of
entrepreneurs
Strategic Action 1.3.4: In partnership with
the local business organizations, hold
a Carlsbad Employer Open House to
showcase local businesses and connect
them with potential employees.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Hold Open
House event
Percentage of
participants that
rate event as
good or great
Strategic Action 1.3.5: Develop a Small
Business Liaison Program that includes
a dedicated liaison to resolve issues with
the small business and entrepreneur
community.
Medium Year 3 $ I&ED Identify / add
staff person
to manage
program
Percentage of
small businesses
rating program
as good or
excellent
CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 5 |
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| 6 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 1.4:
Embrace the
changing nature of
work and what that
may look like for
Carlsbad businesses
Strategic Action 1.4.1: Through a data
driven approach, consider additional
flexibility in the development code to allow
for more agility as business trends change.
Low Year 4 $ CD Identify
outdated
planning
practices and
codes
Percentage
increase in
customers rating
service as good
or excellent
Strategic Action 1.4.2: Evaluate signage
requirements for businesses.
Low Year 3 $ CD Identify
potential
outdated
signage
practices and
codes
Percentage
decrease in
number of
complaints
Objective 1.5:
Increase engagement
and support for
women, minority,
veteran, disabled-
owned businesses
Strategic Action 1.5.1: Partner with the
Employer Assistance and Resource
Network on Disability Inclusion (EARN)
to create resources for disabled-owned
businesses.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Create
partnership
Percentage
increase in
number of
disabled-owned
businesses
assisted
Strategic Action 1.5.2: In conjunction with
regional partners such as SBA, SCORE,
and SBDC, offer trainings specifically
geared towards supporting women,
minority, veteran, and disabled-owned
businesses.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Creation of
additional
trainings
Percentage
increase in
attendance;
percentage of
participants that
rate programs as
good or excellent
Strategic Action 1.5.3: Celebrate women,
minority, veteran, and disabled-owned
businesses by acknowledging and creating
events around: Women’s Small Business
Month, Veterans Small Business Week,
Small Business Week, Black Business
Month, Hispanic Heritage Month, etc.
High Year 1 $ I&ED Creation
of events
promoting
inclusivity
Percentage
increase in
number of
minority owned
businesses
celebrated
publicly
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 136 of 142
Goal 2: Develop and attract workers and talent by providing skills, resources, and support for current and future jobs.
Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 2.1:
Enhance workforce
training and talent
attraction resources
to support Carlsbad’s
key industries
by partnering
with K-12 school
districts, regional
higher educational
institutions, and
regional cities
to support talent
development and
linkages with key
industries
Strategic Action 2.1.1: Enhance Life In
Action to incorporate partnerships with
hospitality, tourism, and entertainment
sectors.
High Year 1 $ I&ED Identify
additional
companies
from key
sectors to
incorporate
Percentage
increase in
participation of
key sectors
Strategic Action 2.1.2: Collaborate with
regional partners such as SOCAL, Mira
Costa College, TCI, and local businesses
for workforce training for middle school,
high school, post-secondary students, and
transitioning adults.
Medium Year 2 $$ I&ED Number of
regional
partners;
Number of
students
Percentage
increase in
local students
employed in
local jobs
Strategic Action 2.1.3: Enhance and
promote educational workshops provided
by the Library, Parks and Recreation
and other resources that provide skill
development to Carlsbad’s workforce.
Medium Year 1 $ LIB
P&R
Number of
educational
workshops
Percentage
increase in
number of
participants in
City programs
Strategic Action 2.1.4: Partner with K-12,
school districts, and higher education
institutions to enhance their existing
programs that provide technical and soft
skills to entry level employees.
High Year 3 $ I&ED Number of
K-12 schools
partnered with
Percentage
increase in
local students
employed in
local jobs
Strategic Action 2.1.5: Facilitate
partnerships between Carlsbad’s
businesses and education partners
to identify skills necessary to obtain
employment in high wage industries.
High Year 3 $ I&ED Number of
partnerships
Percentage
increase in
local students
employed in
local jobs
Objective 2.2: Create
a more connected
City and capitalize on
existing digital tools to
promote digital equity
Strategic Action 2.2.1: Conduct initial study
for outdoor Wi-Fi at City facilities and other
critical areas for the public.
Medium Year 1 $$ IT Iniital study
completed
Percentage
increase of
available outdoor
wi-fi locations
Strategic Action 2.2.2: Promote the City’s
existing digital tools to connect residents,
businesses, and tourists to resources the
City offers.
High Year 1 $$ COM Number of
promotions
Percentage
increase of
residents and
businesses with
access to high
speed internet
CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 7 |
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Item #7 Page 137 of 142
Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 2.3: Through
the implementation of
the Housing Element
programs, address
housing issues while
promoting economic
vitality by providing the
workforce additional
housing opportunities to
be able to both live and
work in Carlsbad
Strategic Action 2.3.1 Evaluate
partnership with local businesses to
enhance the current Down Payment
Assistance Program.
Medium Year 1 $$$ HOUSE Number of
businesses
participating;
Number of
residents
participating in
Down Payment
Assistance
Program
Percentage
increase in
down payment
assistance
provided
Objective 2.4: Through
the implementation of
the Sustainable Mobility
Plan programs, mindfully
create opportunities to
promote economic vitality
by providing the Carlsbad
workforce additional
mobility options
Strategic Action 2.4.1: Evaluate
micro-mobility options to make
Carlsbad more connected and
accessible.
High Year 1 $$$ ES Conduct
feasibility
studies of
micro-mobility
options
Percentage
increase in
public transit
riders
| 8 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 138 of 142
Goal 3: Grow and support key industries by providing and creating resources for these industries to thrive in Carlsbad’s economy.
Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 3.1:
Evaluate opportunities
to improve mobility for
visitors, residents, and
the workforce.
Strategic Action 3.1.1: Evaluate micro-
mobility options in the Village and coastline
to make Carlsbad more connected and
accessible.
High Year 1 $$$ ES Identify and
evaluate micro-
mobility options
Percentage
increase in
number of
people utilizing
public transit
Strategic Action 3.1.2: Use data to identify
specific mobility issues and select projects
from the City’s Sustainable Mobility Plan
that will result in a higher quality of life for
Carlsbad residents.
High Year 3 $$$ I&ED
ES
Identify and
evaluate micro-
mobility options
Percentage
increase in
number of
people utilizing
public transit
Objective 3.2:
Connect businesses
in key sectors with
data and resources
they need to thrive in
Carlsbad.
Strategic Action 3.2.1: Use business data
and recent business survey to assess and
engage with industry clusters to develop
support for their expansion, attraction, and
retention.
Medium Year 1 $
I&ED Continue
to survey
businesses
bi-annually
Number of
businesses that
have expanded
or relocated
Strategic Action 3.2.2: Utilize partnership
with Innovate 78 to connect Carlsbad
businesses with regional resources.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Continue
Innovate 78
Partnership
Number of
businesses
connected
to regional
resources
Objective 3.3: Assist
businesses in growing
industries or sectors,
such as health care,
life sciences, and the
innovation economy,
which are looking to
relocate or expand in
Carlsbad.
Strategic Action 3.3.1: Promote the City’s
business locator website to businesses
looking to move to Carlsbad, developers,
brokers, and investors.
Medium Year 1 $ I&ED Creation of
promotional
materials
Percentage
increase in
number of
businesses
utilizing locator.
Strategic Action 3.3.2: Host industry
advisory groups with leaders in key
business clusters, with a specific emphasis
on the innovation economy.
Medium Year 3 $ I&ED Host events Percentage
of participants
rating program
as good or
excellent.
Strategic Action 3.3.3: Host commercial
real estate forums to create connections
with resources.
Medium Year 3 $ I&ED Host events Percentage
of participants
rating program
as good or
excellent.
Objective 3.4:
Support the needs of
our residents while
balancing the needs
of our businesses in
tourism, hospitality,
and entertainment.
Strategic Action 3.4.1: Continue to support
Carlsbad business organizations that
maintain the tourism economy in Carlsbad.
High Year 1 $ I&ED Continue
regular
meetings
with business
organizations
Percentage
increase in
tourism revenue
Strategic Action 3.4.2: Partner with
local universities and colleges to create
workforce development opportunities in
the hospitality, tourism, and entertainment
sectors.
High Year 4 $ I&ED Develop
partnerships
Number of
connections
that result in
employment
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Item #7 Page 139 of 142
Goal 4: Encourage a sense of connection in our community by building upon our successes and promoting access to economic development resources and opportunities.
Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 4.1: Build
upon the successes
of the communication
efforts in the City
to promote the
City’s economic
development
programs.
Strategic Action 4.1.1: Develop a
communications plan specific towards
economic development efforts and
celebrating the business community with
consistent and cohesive messaging.
Medium Year 3 $ I&ED
COM
Develop Comm
Plan
Percentage
increase in
businesses
reached
Strategic Action 4.1.2: Incorporate business
and economic development activities into
the weekly City Manager newsletter, City
calendar, and social media to foster a
sense of pride in local businesses.
High Year 1 $ I&ED
COM
Incorporate
business
activities into
newsletter
Percentage
increase in
businesses
reached
Strategic Action 4.1.3: Consider developing
a separate economic development
newsletter focused on business and
workforce development resources.
Low Year 3 $ I&ED
COM
Creation of ED
newsletter
Percentage
increase in
businesses
reached
Strategic Action: 4.1.4: Update Economic
Development website and Doing Business
in Carlsbad website to include links to
programs and regional partners and
resources.
High Year 1 $ I&ED Update
websites
Percentage
increase in
businesses
reached
Strategic Action 4.1.5: Expand the opt-in
text messaging system related to economic
development and other City activities.
Low Year 4 $ IT Evaluate
feasibility of
expanding
system
Percentage
increase in
participants
Strategic Action 4.1.6: Develop a business
spotlight program to highlight local
businesses.
Medium Year 2 $ I&ED Develop
spotlight
program
Number of
businesses
highlighted
Strategic Action 4.1.7: Develop and
promote bulletins and flow charts for
common permitting application types.
High Year 2 $ CD Develop
bulletins and
flow charts
Percentage
increase in
rating permitting
experience ad
good or excellent
Strategic Action 4.1.8: Develop and
promote “how to” videos for select
permitting processes.
High Year 3 $ COM
CD
Creation of
videos
Decrease in
number of
complaints
Strategic Action 4.1.9: Create a digital
library of free business resources.
Medium Year 3 $ I&ED
COM
Creation of
digital library
Percentage
increase in
numberof users
accessing
information
Strategic Action 4.1.10: Create a How to do
Business Guide to assist small businesses
and entrepreneurs in opening a business in
Carlsbad.
High Year 2 $ I&ED Creation of
Guide
Percentage
increase in
rating permitting
experience ad
good or excellent
| 10 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 140 of 142
Objective Strategic Action Priority Year Cost Lead Deliverable KPI Objective 4.2:
Enhance placemaking
opportunities to
strengthen the
connection between
people and the places
they share.
Strategic Action 4.2.1: Partner with local
businesses to participate in and promote
the City’s volunteer program to activate
public spaces and foster a sense of
connection.
Medium Year 5 $ COM Increase
awareness
of volunteer
program
Percentage
of businesses
participating
Strategic Action 4.2.2: Provide a digital
platform for local businesses to promote
their volunteer opportunities, such as beach
cleanups.
Low Year 4 $ COM Creation of
platform
Percentage
of businesses
participating
Strategic Action 4.2.3: Utilize the City’s
social media platforms to showcase
Carlsbad’s sense of place and community.
High Year 1 $ COM Increase
engagement
on social media
platforms
Percentage
increase in
the number of
Carlsbad tags in
social media
Strategic Action 4.2.4: Consider expanding
the City’s social media footprint into
additional platforms, such as TikTok, to
target different segments of the Carlsbad
population.
Medium Year 2 $ COM Evaluate
additional
social media
platforms
Percentage
increase in
social media
engagement
Objective 4.3:
Leverage city-owned
assets and right of
way to create a sense
of place
Strategic Action 4.3.1: Continue to
celebrate local artists by enhancing the
City’s Public Art Collection.
Medium Year 2 $$ LIB Evaluate
options to
enhance
program
Percentage
increase of
number of artists
celebrated
Strategic Action 4.3.2: Expand the City's
parklet program to create additional
green space and community gathering
opportunities.
Medium Year 3 $$$ PW Evaluate
options
to create
additional
green space
Percentage
increase in
square footage
of parklet sapce
Strategic Action 4.3.3: Partner with local
business organizations to implement
placemaking strategies such as holiday
lighting and a banner program to enhance
the sense of place and community.
Medium Year 2 $$ I&ED Determine
locations and
options
Percentage
increase in
number of
visitors to
identified areas
CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS | 11 |
DRAFT
Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 141 of 142
| 12 | CITY OF CARLSBAD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIC ACTIONS Jan. 10, 2023
Item #7 Page 142 of 142
{city of
Carlsbad
Ana Alarcon
From:
Sent:
To:
Erik Bruvold <[email protected]>
Tuesday, January 10, 2023 1 :52 PM
City Clerk
All Receive - Agenda Item # J_
For the Information of the:
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Subject : Item 7 (economic development strategic Plan) on tonight's (1/10) Council Agenda Please provide these comments to the city council.
On behalf of the San Diego North Economic Development Council, I want to urge the council to adopt the economic development strategic plan.
Carlsbad and the entirety of North County are moving into a new phase of our economic history . Nearly all of North County's business parks are now developed and vacancy rates are at historic lows. Very little job growth is going to come from attracting new businesses that are looking for green field opportunities. Instead, most of North County's growth will come from existing companies expanding and new entrepreneurial start-ups that grow into existing space. In addition, economic prosperity is likely also to be partially driven by workers and firms untethered from physical space as the pandemic ushered in new forms of work and the opportunity to connect with others in a company from anywhere in the world .
The new strategic plan leans head on into those changes. It places support for start-ups, workforce development and placemaking front and center. It highlights Carlsbad's world class quality of life as a key driver of economic success. And it acknowledges that placemaking will be central to the city's ability to continue to attract and retain talent. The plan is well thought out, collaborative and reflects a willingness to engage with a diverse set of stakeholders.
On behalf of the entire council I want to urge the Council to adopt the plan and to continue to support the work of the economic development office at the City.
W. Erik Bruvold
Chief Executive Officer
San Diego North Economic Development Council
100 East San Marcos Blvd, Suite 400
San Marcos, CA 92069
ebruvold@sdnedc .org
760-510-5919 (office)
858-361-1540 (cell)
1 David Graham, Chief Innovation Officer
Matt Sanford, Economic Development Manager
Jim Simon, Principal at RSG Group
January 10, 2022
Economic Development
Strategic Plan
RECOMMENDED ACTION
Staff recommends the following actions:
1. Receive the report
2. Adopt a resolution approving the proposed Economic
Development Strategic Plan
3. Direct staff to evaluate, revise and update the draft strategic actions associated with the plan and make any necessary budgetary recommendations during the annual budget process beginning with fiscal year 2023-24
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLAN
BACKGROUND
• Covid-19 had a significant impact on Carlsbad businesses • The City Council rapidly responded with the Economic Recovery and Revitalization Initiative (ERRI)
o Ad-Hoc Economic Development Subcommittee
o Stay Safe Stay Open campaign
o $250,000 to support tourism early-on in the pandemic
o Shop local campaign in partnership with Chamber, CVA, and Visit Carlsbad o A low-interest small-business loan program
• Distributed nearly $2M in small business loans to 90 companies with no defaults o Response to over 800 inquiries from businesses for assistance
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLAN
IMPACT
• Beyond pandemic support, Economic Development staff engaged with businesses in key industries
• Supported 85 company projects from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2022
o $1.4B in gross receipts reported
o $100M in Sales tax generated
o $49M in local investment reported
o 11,400 estimated local jobs retained or created
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLAN
*As of June 30, 2022
FROM RECOVERY TO ECONOMIC VITALITY
• Staff worked with CitiesGPS to evaluate the city’s economic development response to COVID-19 and create inclusive recovery recommendations • Inclusive recovery report found the lack of an overall strategic plan likely led to more reactive rather than proactive and forward-looking actions • As a result, the City Council allocated $100,000 out of ERRI funds to create an Economic Development Strategic Plan to guide efforts for the next five years • October 11, 2022 Five-Year Strategic Plan approved
o Goal: Economic Vitality – Foster a healthy local economy • October 17, 2022 Economic Development Subcommittee unanimously recommended the strategic plan be taken to the full City Council
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLAN
Methodology Market Study
Findings
Strategic Plan Goals
& Objectives
Strategic Actions &
Next Steps
Methodology
Resident &
Workforce
Outreach
Business
Engagement Market Study SWOT Analysis
Identify Goals
and Strategic
Objectives
City Staff
Feedback
Subcommittee
Feedback Strategic Plan
Market Study
Key Findings
• High Paying Industries: Life Sciences, Technology,
Cleantech
• Inflow of Residents from LA and SF
• Outflow to Riverside County
• Key Industries - Pandemic Employment Decline
• High Share of Class A Office Space in North County
• Downtown SD: Threat to Attract Talent and Companies
• High Job to Labor Ratio
• Relatively Affordable Office and Flex Spaces Rents
Strategic Plan Overview
Economic Development Strategic Plan
• Methodology
• Market Study
• Community Engagement
• City Profile
• Goals
• Where We Excel
• Challenges We Face
• Opportunities for Growth
• Objectives
Extensive outreach was incorporated into developing the strategic plan • Prior Outreach
• Outreach During Process
• Resident Stakeholder Meeting (Virtual) February 2022
• Business Community (Virtual) March 2022
• Business Workshops (2 Events) May 2022
• Interdepartmental Draft Review July 2022
• City Council Economic Development Subcommittee (5 Meetings) Jan-Oct, 2022
Goal 1: Support
Small Businesses,
Startups, &
Entrepreneurs
Support small businesses, startups &
entrepreneurs in partnership with local
and regional collaborators, supporting the
long-term viability of entrepreneurs and
small businesses in Carlsbad.
Goal 2: Develop
and Attract
Workers & Talent
Develop and attract workers and talent
by providing skills, resources, and
support for current and future jobs.
Goal 3: Grow &
Support Our Key
Industries
Grow and support key industries by
providing and creating resources for
these industries to thrive in Carlsbad’s
economy.
Goal 4:
Encourage
Placemaking &
Engagement
Encourage a sense of connection in our
community by building upon our
successes and promoting access to
economic development resources and
opportunities.
STRATEGIC ACTIONS
• Economic Development Strategic Plan
o Roadmap
o Goals & Objectives
• Economic Development Strategic Actions
o Defined & Tactical
o Achieve the objectives supporting the plan goals
• Considerations
o Uncertain and changing economic conditions
o Funding in the context of city strategic plan and priorities
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLAN
NEXT STEPS
• Make any budget recommendations during fiscal year 2022-23 budget process • Annually revise and update strategic actions
• Annually report on progress
• Foster a healthy and vibrant economy
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLAN
RECOMMENDED ACTION
Staff recommends the following actions:
1. Receive the report
2. Adopt a resolution approving the proposed Economic
Development Strategic Plan
3. Direct staff to evaluate, revise and update the draft strategic actions associated with the plan and make any necessary budgetary recommendations during the annual budget process beginning with fiscal year 2023-24
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGIC PLAN