CA Review CKM
Meeting Date: Nov. 12, 2024
To: Mayor and City Council
From: Scott Chadwick, City Manager
Staff Contact: Jason Haber, Intergovernmental Affairs Director [email protected], 442-339-2958
Subject: San Diego Association of Governments Regional Update and Forecast Districts: All
Recommended Action
Receive a presentation from SANDAG Principal Economist Naomi Young regarding SANDAG’s Regional Update and Forecast.
Executive Summary
SANDAG Principal Economist Naomi Young will provide an update focused on the long-term forecast regarding population, jobs and housing in Carlsbad and the San Diego Region.
Fiscal Analysis
This item has no fiscal impact.
Next Steps
None.
Environmental Evaluation
This action does not require environmental review because it does not constitute a project within the meaning of the California Environmental Quality Act under California Public Resources Code Section 21065 in that it has no potential to cause either a direct physical change in the environment or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment.
Exhibits
1. Nov. 12, 2024 - SANDAG Regional Update and Forecast presentation Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 1 of 37
Regional Update and Forecast
City of Carlsbad
Presented by
Naomi Young, Principal Economist
November 12, 2024
Exhibit 1
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 2 of 37
| 2
| 2
2023 Snapshot of San Diego County & Carlsbad
total population
3,290,400
1,244,500
housing units
2,291,900
jobs
San Diego County Carlsbad
total population
114,060
of county
population
3.5%
48,070
housing units
3.9%
of county
housing units
105,500
jobs
4.6%
of county jobs
Sources: SANDAG 2023 Population and Housing Units Estimates; SANDAG SR15 Forecast Series and BEA 2024 for 2023 Jobs estimate.
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 3 of 37
Population Changes:
San Diego Region & Carlsbad
A Look into the Future
3 Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 4 of 37
1990
2.5M
2022
3.4M
2035
3.6M
2050
3.73M
2022
3.28M
2035
3.4M
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
3,800,000
4,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Population Growth for the San Diego Region
| 4
Forecast to 2050
SR 15
SR 14
Historic
Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
2050
3.4M
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 5 of 37
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Annual Population Change in the San Diego Region
| 5Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historic Forecast to 2050
1990-2022: +789K 2022-2050: +113K
2000
Population
2.81M
2042
Population
peaks at
3.43M
2020
First time
population
decreases
-43K
2050
Population
falls to
3.40M
2008
Population
reaches
3M
1990
Population
2.5M
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 6 of 37
SA NDA G
2010
+25,040 2020
+12,450 2030
+5,841
2040
-1,748 2050
-7,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Natural Change
of the San
Diego Region’s
Population
Natural change is
projected to become
negative by 2040
| 6Sources: State of CA, Dept. of Finance; SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast Historic Forecast to 2050
Natural change is
births minus deaths
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 7 of 37
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--------------
2010
+6,889
2020
-6,000
2025
+700
2030
+7,400
2050
-100
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Net Migration
for the San
Diego Region
Net migration is currently
negative, projected to
become positive in 2025,
back to negative by 2050
| 7Sources: State of CA, Dept. of Finance; SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast Forecast to 2050Historic
Net migration is
domestic plus
international
migration into and
out of the region
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 8 of 37
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1 Ten
Jurisdictions
with the
Largest
Forecasted
Population
Growth
(2022 to 2050)
| 8Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
San Marcos
Chula Vista
Santee
Oceanside
San Diego
Carlsbad
Escondido
National City
Poway
Vista
+16,330
+48,240
+3,820
+10,370
+66,360
+1,200
+1,200
+120
-220
-1,260
+Carlsbad
While the San Diego
Region is expected to
grow by
112,900 (+3.4%)
from 2022 to 2050,
forecasted population
growth varies across
jurisdictions.
Percent Change in Population from 2022 to 2050
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 9 of 37
SA NDA G
SR 15 Population Forecast for Carlsbad
Carlsbad ranks 6th among San Diego jurisdictions for net growth by 2050 | 9
2022
116K
2029
119K
2035
120K 2040
119K
2050
117K
114,000
115,000
116,000
117,000
118,000
119,000
120,000
121,000
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
+4,430
people added
3.8% larger population
than 2022
+1%
larger
population
than 2022
Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 10 of 37
I t
+
SA NDA G
The Region Will Continue to Grow More Diverse
| 10Sources: American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Series 15 Regional Forecast Estimates Note: American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander races comprise less than one percent of the population and are combined in the “Other” category. Some other race and Two or more races are combined in Multi-Race. Races are non-Hispanic. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. 42%
37%
34%
34%
13%
17%
4%
4%
6%
6%
2022
2050
San Diego County
66%
59%
17%
17%
10%
15%
6%
8%
2022
2050
Carlsbad
White Hispanic Asian Black Multi-Race Other
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 11 of 37
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
San Diego Region
2022 & 2050 Military and Civilian Population
| 11Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
2022
+244K
In 2050, the 65+ is projected to
be 22% of the population…
-103K
…and the under 19 will be
20% of the population
2050
Male FemaleMale/Female (Military)
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 12 of 37
■
II
Carlsbad: Population by Age in 2022 and 2050
| 12Source: SANDAG Series 15 Forecast
24K
7K
62K
24K
27K
8K
65K
16K
Age 0 - 17
Age 18-24
Age 25-69
Age 70+
2022 2050
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 13 of 37■ ■
SA NDA G
Average Annual Change in Carlsbad
Population declines after 2035, while total households continues growing | 13Source: SANDAG Series 15 Forecast
Population
115,670
Population
120,010
Population
119,250
Population
118,020
Population
116,790
Population
119,290
Households
45,800
Households
49,170
Households
49,710
Households
49,820
Households
49,930
Households
48,150
89 3,619
721
-763
-1,232 -1,232
806
2,353
1,023
540
107 107
-2,000
-1,000
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 14 of 37
• • • • • •
SA NDA G
Housing Stock: San Diego
Region & Carlsbad
A Look at How Housing Stock Changes
14 Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 15 of 37
Forecast to 2050
993,288
1,112,265
1,174,354
1,287,030
1,368,646 1,396,492
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
San Diego Region Housing Units
| 15
Historic
Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s Estimates of Housing Units Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 16 of 37
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Annual Change in Housing Units
in the San Diego Region
| 16
0 2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: SANDAG Series 15 Draft Forecast
The region is projected to add 202.8K housing
units. Growth tapers off by 2048, and the
vacancy rate rises from 6.1% to 7.2%.
Housing Units
1.04M
Housing Units
1.16M
2001-2010
+103.9K
Housing Units
1.22M
Housing Units
1.31M
Housing Units
1.41M
Housing Units
1.44M
2011-2020
+58.1K
2021-2030
+105.9K
2031-2040
+72.2K
2041-2050
+22.0K
Forecast to 2050Historic
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 17 of 37
SA NDA G
San Diego Region Housing Units Growth by Decade
| 17Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s Estimates of Housing Units 71,156
26,250 30,174
8,387
1,233
47,821
35,839
82,502
73,229
26,613
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Single Family Multi-Family
Forecast to 2050Historic
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 18 of 37
■ ■
SA NDA G
| 18Sources: Series 15 Draft Regional Growth Forecast and SANDAG’s Estimates of Housing Units 30% 32% 39%38%37%
65% 63% 57%57%59%
Forecast to 2050Historic
97 4,078
194
-2-290
3,806
1,592
319
-1,000
-500
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2020 2030 2040 2050
Single Family Multi-Family
Carlsbad Housing Units Growth by Decade
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 19 of 37
■ ■
| 19
Carlsbad
Housing
Growth:
2022-2050
6,130 housing
units (+13%)
added between
2022 and 2050
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 20 of 37
• ..
wa_
Oceanside
►
Pacific Ocean
Series 15 Regional
Growth Forecast:
Housing 2022 - 2050
New Housing Units per Acre
Greater than 50
20.7 - 50.0
70.7 - 20.0
5.7 - 70.0
2.7 - 5.0
7.7 - 2.0
7 or fe w er
MILES
0 SA ~ G
2 A
N
Source: SAN DAG Draft Series 75
Vista
_/
T
e
I _........--... _
' ~ ' /-~I r _/ -\} v:__ ___ j
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Carlsbad ..,
Encinitas
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Employment Centers in
Carlsbad
20 Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 21 of 37
Employment Centers 2.0
| 21
Sources: SANDAG including LODES 7.3, 2015; LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022 Tier 1: 19%
Tier 2: 26%
Tier 3: 13%
Tier 4: 21%
Not in EC: 22%
400K
551K
272K
446K
471K
2.14M
Jobs
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 22 of 37
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SA DA G
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Reservation
Pauma and Yuima
Reservation
Valley Cente r
-~~ 1
La Jolla
Reservation
County of San Diego
Santa Ysabel
Reservation
Mesa Grande
Reservation
·tl)'--
Capitan Grande
Reservation
Syc'iiiEJr,J
Rese#ation
Jamu l
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UNITED STATES
MEXICO
Employment Centers in Carlsbad and the Vicinity
Jobs by Employment Center and Tier
Sources: LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022 | 22 47,049
20,912
17,508
9,212
8,549
8,500
Carlsbad
Palomar Airport
Vista
Tech Park
Carlsbad
State Beach
El Camino
Carlsbad
Village
Oceanside
Tri-city
Employment Center Jobs
Tier 2
42%
Tier 3
34%
Tier 4
24%
1 2
3 4
5 6
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 23 of 37
Employment
Center 2.0
- Tierl
- Tier2
- Tier3
Tier4
SA NDA G
Employment Centers in Carlsbad and the Vicinity
Jobs by Sector in Tier 2 and 3 Employment Centers
Sources: LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022 | 23 3, Carlsbad
State Beach
2, Vista
Tech Park
1, Carlsbad
Palomar Airport
Business Services
Finance
Healthcare
Retail
Construction
Manufacturing
Education
Food
Government
Gig jobs
Other
Wholesale
Entertainment
17%
14%
6%
10%
20%
28%
9%
11%
9%
13%
14%
41%
19%
21%
7%
8%
10%
15%
19%
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 24 of 37
Employment
Center 2.0
- Tierl
- Tier2
- Tier3
Tier4
SA NDA G
Employment Centers in Carlsbad and the Vicinity
Jobs by Sector in Tier 4 Employment Centers
Sources: LEHD 8, 2019; EDD; SANDAG Employment Forecasts, 2022 | 24 6, Oceanside
Tri-city
5, Carlsbad
Village
4, El Camino
Business Services
Finance
Healthcare
Retail
Construction
Manufacturing
Education
Food
Government
Gig jobs
Other
Wholesale
17%
13%
23%
33%
15%
7%
21%
44%
15%
21%
13%
19%
23%
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 25 of 37
Employment
Center 2.0
-Tierl
- Tier2
- Tier3
Tier4
SA NDA G
Wage and
Salary Jobs
Filled by City’s
Residents
| 25
Nearly 1 in 5 wage and
salary jobs in Carlsbad
are filled by its residents.
39%
35%
32%
22%
20%
19%
19%
19%
19%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
8%
7%
4%
Oceanside
Chula Vista
Escondido
Vista
Encinitas
Carlsbad
Imperial Beach
San Marcos
El Cajon
Santee
Coronado
National City
Poway
La Mesa
Lemon Grove
Solana Beach
Del Mar
+Carlsbad
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 26 of 37
SA NDA G
Employment
Centers in
and around
Carlsbad
14% of jobs are
filled by Carlsbad
residents
The three employment
centers located in
Carlsbad draw nearly
half of its workers from
three areas: Carlsbad,
Oceanside, and Vista
| 26
17%
18%
26%
10%
10%
18%
20%
27%
30%
32%
16%
12%
12%
11%
10%
16%
18% 10% 12%
33%
32%
22%
37%
25%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Carlsbad
Palomar Airport
Carlsbad
State Beach
Carlsbad
Village
El Camino
Oceanside
Tri-city
Vista
Tech Park
Carlsbad Oceanside Vista San Marcos Escondido Encinitas Other Employment Center Where Carlsbad Employees Travel From
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 27 of 37
■
■
■
■
■
■
■
Employment
27 Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 28 of 37
Jobs by Sector in the San Diego Region
| 28
Manufacturing
126K
Retail/Wholesale
trade
239K
Transportation
and
warehousing
93K
Finance/Real
Estate/Management
279K
Innovation
280K
Education
151K
Healthcare and
social
assistance
253K
Tourism
229K
Other Business
Support and
Personal
Services
269K
Active-Duty
Military
91K
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Employment by Industry, San Diego MSA, 2022 (Nov 2023); SANDAG Aggregations; SANDAG Series 15 Employment Forecast, 2022 23KAgric/Utilities
• In 2022, San Diego had
2.27M
jobs in 13 sectors.
No sector has more than
12% of the jobs.
• Looking to 2050, the
economy continues to be
diverse, but four sectors
lead in job creation
Construction
116K
Government
124K
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 29 of 37
SA NDA G
Retail/Wholesale
trade
239K
Education
151K
Other Business
Support and
Personal
Services
269K
Active-Duty
Military
91KManufacturing
126K
Transportation
and
warehousing
93K
Finance/Real
Estate/Management
279K
Innovation
280K
Healthcare and
social
assistance
253K
Tourism
229K
Transportation
and
warehousing
93K
Four Driving Sectors for the San Diego Region
| 29Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Employment by Industry, San Diego MSA, 2022 (Nov 2023); SANDAG Aggregations; SANDAG Series 15 Employment Forecast, 2022
23KAgric/Utilities
Innovation
280K
Innovation (12% of 2022 jobs)
• Cutting-edge development in
engineering, cybersecurity, AI/machine
learning, defense, and medical technology
Construction
116K
Government
124K
Transportation and warehousing (4%)
• Increased border trade with opening of
Otay Mesa East Port of Entry
Tourism
229K
Tourism (10%)
• More consumer demand for experiences
versus
goods and rising travel
opportunities for older population
Healthcare and social assistance (11%)
• Increasing demands as population ages
Healthcare
and social
assistance
253K
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 30 of 37
SA NDA G
Job
Distribution
in the
San Diego
Region
| 30
Wage and salary
jobs increase in all
jurisdictions over the
life of the forecast
(2022 to 2050).
Carlsbad’s job
growth is 12
th largest
in percentage terms
and 6
th largest in
terms of number of
jobs
Jurisdiction
Jobs 2022
(Wage &
Salary)
Jobs
(Wage &
Salary)
Change #
Jobs
(Wage &
Salary)
Change %
Carlsbad 79,382 5,988 7.5%
Chula Vista 74,728 28,372 38.0%
Coronado 31,257 241 0.8%
Del Mar 3,799 50 1.3%
El Cajon 43,824 4,453 10.2%
Encinitas 26,140 846 3.2%
Escondido 53,869 2,101 3.9%
Imperial Beach 5,074 2,532 49.9%
La Mesa 25,250 2,214 8.8%
Lemon Grove 7,972 1,431 18.0%
National City 38,802 3,183 8.2%
Oceanside 48,112 17,165 35.7%
Poway 33,786 281 0.8%
San Diego 876,977 67,497 7.7%
San Marcos 40,133 12,184 30.4%
Santee 17,838 1,476 8.3%
Solana Beach 9,255 138 1.5%
Unincorporated 39,015 2,637 6.8%
Vista 156,419 17,968 11.5%
Region 1,611,632 170,757 10.6%
Carlsbad
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 31 of 37
\
Camp Pendleton
_5,
Series 15 Regional
Growth Forecast:
Employment 2050
• l dot represents 20 j obs
Dcirkcr colors ind ica te hig her
conce ntr at ions o• Jobs
Source: SAN DAG Drah Ser ieslS
Regional Growth rorecast, 1/24/2024
MIL ES
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•
N
KI LOM ETERS
SA NDA G
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Reservation
Pauma and Yuima
Reservation
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UNITED STATES
MEXICO SA DA G
Wage and Salary Jobs by Industry in Carlsbad
in 2022 and Projected to 2050
| 31
Projected Change for Carlsbad
2022-2040 2040-2050
66% of Carlsbad Jobs in 2022
+5% +2%
+18% +11%
-11% -1%
-2% -3%
+24% +4%
Source: Series 15 Regional Forecast Estimates
14,786
13,697
8,921
8,634
6,341
Business Services
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Food & Accommodation
Healthcare
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 32 of 37
SA NDA G
Long Term Outlook
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 33 of 37
c~w
I..
Long-Term
Trends for
the San
Diego Region
| 33
• Job growth slows in response to population changes
• Four sectors lead in job creation for the region
• Changing workplace (telework, gig jobs, multiple job holdings) Jobs
• Slowing populati on growth and decreasing after 2040
• More seniors (65 year s and older) and fewer youths (18 years and younger) in the population
• More households, but smaller in size
Population
• More housing units built , despite the population trends • Multi-family units grow as a share of housing
• Pockets of increased densif ication across the region Housing
Nov. 12, 2024
Item #9 Page 34 of 37
SA NDA G
Long-Term
Trends for
Carlsbad
| 34
• Carlsbad ranks 6th among jurisdictions for growing jobs – adding nearly 6,000 jobs by 2050
• Three sectors lead in job creation: manufacturing, healthcare and business services
Jobs
• Population grows through 2035 and then decreases
• By 2050, the population is 1% bigger than 2022
• More s
eniors and fewer youths
• More households, but smaller in size
Population
• More housing units built (nearly 6,100)
• 71% of housing units added by 2050 are multi-famil y units Housing
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SA NDA G
Questions?
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Stay connected with SANDAG
Explore our website
SANDAG.org
Email: [email protected]
Follow us on social media:
@SANDAGregion @SANDAG
36 Explore our data
OPENDATA.SANDAG.org
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