Ava Community Energy Executive Committee
July 1, 2026

Integrated Resource
Planning - 2026
Marie Fontenot | July 1, 2026
Agenda
2 • Introduction & Overview • Required Materials • Timeline & Process • Description of Modeling • Compliance Requirements • Next Steps & Conclusion • Appendix ▪ Description of Model Assumptions ▪ Overview of Preliminary Results Overview of Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)
• Staff have reviewed the details of the current Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process and analysis in 2026 at the January and May Board and CAC meetings ▪ This presentation is intended to refresh details on the IRP process and provide an update leading into the July board IRP approval
• The California Public Utility Commission's (CPUC) IRP program is a long-term planning process to ensure enough generation capacity is built to:
▪ Reliability meet customer demand
▪ Meet greenhouse gas reduction targets
• CPUC staff use capacity expansion modeling to determine the optimal mix of resources needed to meet requirements 1 and 2
• To inform their modeling, the CPUC requires Load Serving Entities (LSEs) to submit our own IRP portfolios identifying least-cost, GHG-compliant resource mix to meet our customer demand • Ava's IRP Portfolio submission is both a compliance requirement and an opportunity to express our procurement preferences
3 Submission of Ava's IRP
4 • On a schedule defined by the CPUC, Ava is required to submit an IRP that meets CPUC-determined reliability and decarbonization metrics ▪ Previous IRPs: 2018,2020, 2022.
▪ 2024 IRP delayed; functionally evolved into 2026 IRP. Due August 10. • Specifically, Ava must submit:
▪ Resource Data Template (RDT): Summary of current and planned procurement ▪ Clean System Power (CSP) Calculator: Evaluation of portfolio emissions ▪ Narrative Template (NT): Description of portfolio and modeling process • GenX modeling informs, but does not directly translate into, these deliverables • Per CA statute, Ava must submit its IRP Plan to its governing board for approval • Ava will complete additional IRP modeling utilizing different market assumptions, constraints, and modeling parameters purely for internal analysis following this exercise The Filing – Required Materials & Examples
5 Narrative Template (NT)
▪ Executive Summary
▪ Study Design
▪ Study Results
▪ Action Plan
▪ Lessons Learned
▪ Note: each section
has required, defined
subsections
▪ Ava’s 2022 IRP
Narrative Template:
https://res.cloudinary.com/diactiwk7/im
age/upload/v1667342459/2022_IRP_EB
CE_LSE_Plan_xj6yzo.pdf
Resource Data Template
(RDT)
▪ Excel workbook; many, many
tabs
▪ Contract list w/ details
▪ Confirm contracts /
resources are assumed to
have “right’ capacity factors
based on when they come
online & other details
▪ Summarize capacity value of
resource
▪ Summarize types of
resources in portfolio
▪ Ava’s 2022 IRP RDT for 25
MMT portfolio:
https://cdn.sanity.io/files/pc49kbjr/produ
ction/b06053ae09b11af066a291fa70d00d
9653186e0b.xlsm
Above links as well as Ava’s 2018, 2020, 2022 IRPs can be found online at: https://avaenergy.org/about-ava/key-documents/integrated-resource-plan/ Clean System Power
Calculator (CSP)
▪ Tool to estimate GHG &
criteria pollutant emissions
in portfolios
▪ Requirement to use this tool
& method for emission
accounting in IRP filing
▪ Only relevant to forecasting
emissions, not calculating
actual emissions
▪ Excel workbook; many, many
tabs
▪ Ava’s 2022 IRP CSP for 25
MMT portfolio:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Dib2bFk5
wLpibytxlLyxFxSjLM4Kr2qp/view?usp=sha
re_link
Timeline & Process
6 Date Event
February 10, 2026 Final IRP modeling & filing requirements provided by CPUC March 10, 2026 IRP filing deadline of Aug 10 was set by CPUC April – May, 2026 Preliminary GenX modeling
May – July, 2026 Final GenX modeling & document preparation July 15, 2026 Ava Board July meeting seeking board approval July 16 – Aug 5,
2026
Final updates & edits to formal submissions
Aug 5-10, 2026 Regulatory team works with outside counsel on redactions and final submission
August 10, 2026 IRP filing deadline to CPUC
September 16,
2026
Officially filed IRP materials will be added to the Consent agenda in Board meeting and later posted on Ava website
IRP Modeling
7 • GenX model
▪ Open-source tool to support investment planning
▪ Developed by the MIT Energy Initiative and Princeton University’s Zero-carbon Energy systems Research and Optimization (ZERO) Lab1
▪ A least-cost optimization model, acts as central planner to determine cost-optimal generation portfolio, energy storage, and transmission investment needed to meet defined system demand while adhering to various grid constraints and market design constraints ▪ Contains thousands of lines of data, each “successful” model runs takes ~3-4 hours • Need for compliance between GenX and filing materials… ▪ Calculations are slightly different btw GenX and the CSP calculator. “Translation” is tricky. ▪ GenX could appear compliant with CPUC requirements, then calculation in CSP could demonstrate different emissions or RDT calculation could demonstrate an RA-lack of compliance. Results in need for re-runs and corrections. ▪ Materials that Ava Board approves in July may require slight revision to align different modeling calculations, to accurately represent the GenX modeled portfolio in required CPUC templates, and to remove “errors” in cells.
1 https://energy.mit.edu/genx/
IRP Approval & Compliance
8 Ava must submit its IRP Plan to its governing board for approval and provide its IRP Plan to the CPUC for certification per Public Utilities Code Section 454.52(b)(3) Ava’s IRP Plan must meet Reliability and Renewable Procurement Requirements with a diverse resource mix, avoid energy shortfalls, minimize ratepayer costs, minimize GHG and local air pollutants
Required Areas Where / how it appears
Economic, reliability, security &
other benefits
• NT, RDT, CSP describe RPS content, forecast annual
emissions; estimate portfolio costs under different market conditions
Diverse resource portfolio
• Compliance portfolio will include short- & long-term
procurement; variety of generation resources (not all
solar!)
• NT describes Ava’s customer programs (e.g. Resilient
Home and VPP products)
Resource adequacy requirements • NT, RDT will describe how portfolio satisfies near-term and forecasted long-term RA requirements
Next Steps
9 Now
• Model “clean ups”
• Complete full drafts of NT, RDT, CSP
7/16/26
• Ava Board approves compliance materials
Ongoing
• Ava staff available to provide 1:1 Q&A or Ad Hoc review of filing to Board members
8/10/26
• Compliance submission to CPUC
9/16/26
• Final, compliance materials on Ava Board Consent Agenda Later
2026
• Staff present supplemental Ava analysis
Conclusion
• This presentation is intended to refresh details on the IRP process and provide an update leading into the July board IRP approval
• In light of a tight timeframe to finalize GenX modeling and the IRP submission documents, staff is seeking any clarifying questions or requests regarding the upcoming approval process with the board
10 Appendix – Model Assumptions & Preliminary GenX
Results
11 CPUC Requirements
12 Required Inputs
• Load forecast & GHG benchmark for each LSE
• CAISO zonal topology
• Resource regions align with CAISO study areas
• Rules on candidate resources; i.e. x much natural gas for whole system, x much geothermal, x much in-state wind, x much out-of-state wind, etc) ▪ Includes rules for different resource capacity factors ▪ Resource cost assumptions
▪ Restrictions on how much of a resource type can be developed in different areas
▪ Resource generation profiles
• Planning reserve margin and resource capacity factors (effective load carrying capability ELCC)
• 2024 dollar year
CPUC Candidate Resources (2030)
13 Resource
Levelized Cost
of Energy
($/MWh)
Levelized Fixed
Cost (2024 $/MW-yr)
Geothermal_-_CA $97.13 $680.70
NF_EGS_-_NV_to_SCE_-
_Control $142.34 $997.48
NF_EGS_-_NV_to_SCE_-
_Eldorado $138.40 $969.88
NF_EGS_-_OR_to_PGE_-_Malin $134.77 $944.48
Onshore_Wind_-
_NE_CA_to_PGE_-_Malin $102.76 $234.42
Onshore_Wind_-_NM_to_SCE_-
_Lugo_-_Tranche_5 $77.52 $255.56
Onshore_Wind_-_NM_to_SCE_-
_Palo_Verde_-_Tranche_1 $69.64 $229.59
Onshore_Wind_-_NM_to_SCE_-
_Palo_Verde_-_Tranche_2 $79.65 $262.58
Onshore_Wind_-_NM_to_SCE_-
_Palo_Verde_-_Tranche_3 $84.37 $278.15
Onshore_Wind_-_NM_to_SCE_-
_Palo_Verde_-_Tranche_4 $87.77 $289.36
Resource
Levelized Cost
of Energy
($/MWh)
Levelized Fixed
Cost (2024 $/MW-yr)
Onshore_Wind_-_WY_to_PGE_-
_Tesla_-_Tranche_1 $102.93 $360.70
Onshore_Wind_-_WY_to_PGE_-
_Tesla_-_Tranche_2 $102.93 $360.70
PGE_Fresno_Solar $51.89 $139.03
PGE_GBA_Solar $52.01 $139.03
PGE_GBA_Wind $68.99 $174.16
PGE_Kern_Solar $49.49 $139.03
PGE_Kern_Wind $68.99 $174.16
PGE_NGBA_Solar $52.56 $139.03
PGE_NGBA_Wind $76.35 $174.16
SCE_Arizona_Solar $42.71 $119.84
CPUC Candidate Resources (2030)
14 Resource
Levelized Cost
of Energy
($/MWh)
Levelized Fixed
Cost (2024 $/MW-yr)
SCE_Eastern_Solar $47.60 $139.03
SCE_Eastern_Wind $61.87 $174.16
SCE_EOP_Wind $59.78 $159.44
SCE_Metro_Solar $49.58 $139.03
SCE_NOL_Solar $45.56 $139.03
SCE_NOL_Wind $79.28 $174.16
SCE_Northern_Solar $45.91 $139.03
SCE_Northern_Wind $79.28 $174.16
SDGE_Arizona_Solar $42.71 $119.84
SDGE_Baja_California_Wind $61.87 $174.16
LDES_-_Generic_100-hr
$3,166.62 $569.99
Resource
Levelized Cost
of Energy
($/MWh)
Levelized Fixed
Cost (2024 $/MW-yr)
SDGE_Imperial_Solar $49.79 $139.03
SDGE_Imperial_Wind $61.87 $174.16
Li-ion_Battery_4-hr_-_CA $121.36 $135.54
Li-ion_Battery_8-hr_-_CA $101.47 $226.66
Gas_CCGT $55.95 $184.22
Gas_CT_-_Frame $234.90 $173.72
Reciprocating_Engine $421.40 $341.34
Morro_Bay_Offshore_Wind $338.64 $1,377.01
Humboldt_Bay_Offshore_Wi
nd $319.32 $1,377.01
LDES_-_Generic_12-hr $192.28 $403.79
LDES_-_Generic_24-hr
$350.36 $504.52
Strategy Assumptions
15 Category Constraint
Maximum Available Capacity 0MW in 2026, No limit beyond 2028 Maximum Market Purchase 1000MW per hour
Maximum Market Sale 1000MW per hour
Maximum Out of State Wind Available
Capacity
N/A (New Mexico Wind starts in 2028, Wyoming
Wind starts in 2030)
PCIA Hedging Strategy Incorporated
Minimum Annual Available Capacity 70MW mandated Geothermal/Long-Duration Storage by 2032
Market Buy-Sell Spread $1 per MWh
Maximum In-State Wind Available Capacity 250MW per year until 2030, 1000MW per year between 2031-2035
Production Tax Credit & Investment Tax Credit PTC is available in 2026-2030; ITC is incorporated in the levelized fixed cost (From TPP)
REC Requirements
16 Year
State-level RPS
Requirements
(%)
Ava Internal Clean Energy Requirements GHG
Emissions
Benchmark
(MMT)
Ava VAMO
Allocation (%)
Ava Nuclear
Allocation
(%)
Total (%)
2026 49.2% 17.96% 5.43% 76.6% 1.106
2028 54.6% 13.84% 4.27% 90.0% 1.106
2030 60.0% 11.84% 1.37% 100.0% 1.106
2035 60.0% 6.49% 0% 100.0% 0.917
2040 60.0% 0.70% 0% 100.0% 0.767
2045 60.0% 0.46% 0% 100.0% 0.391
REC Requirements
17 Updated Market Prices
18 Average DLAP prices from Ava Internal modeling vs. Aurora Price Forecast Curves Updated GenX Model Results
19 Cumulative Capacity Results - “cQuant Mean”
20 Cumulative Capacity Results - “Central”
21 Cumulative Capacity Results - “Messy Transition”
22 Cumulative Capacity Results - “High Scenario”
23 Conforming Portfolio for CPUC - “Central”
24 Additional Elements of Compliance Filing
25 • Estimated cost & revenues of portfolio
• Estimation of Ava’s compliance portfolio emissions and portfolio contribution to state-wide emissions
• Estimation of annual generation from Ava’s compliance portfolio and value/ability of portfolio to contribute to hedging
• Portfolio contribution to system reliability
• CAISO market exposure associated with the portfolio
• Ability of portfolio to meet RPS compliance obligations