CleanPowerSF 2022
Integrated Resource Plan
Modeling Results
October 11, 2022
What is an Integrated Resource Plan
(IRP)?
• An IRP is an energy planning
tool to support achieving policy
goals and meeting regulatory
requirements.
• State law requires retail sellers of
electricity to develop an IRP that
evaluates electricity supply and
demand and identifies energy
resource options that can deliver
reliable and cost-effective energy
to customers.
• CCA IRPs are reviewed and
certified by the California Public
Utilities Commission (CPUC),
every two years.
2 Integrated Resource Plan Portfolios
3 Conforming
Portfolio
Uses inputs and
assumptions provided by the
CPUC
Accounts for statewide goals
and targets
Minimal flexibility to
incorporate local
electrification goals and
targets
Alternative
Portfolio
Uses inputs and assumptions
determined by CleanPowerSF
Accounts for local goals and
targets:
Transportation electrification
Building decarbonization
Provides flexibility to
incorporate community
preferences
CleanPowerSF IRP Modeling:
Four Portfolios
4 1. Base Case: CleanPowerSF Goals by 2025
✓ 100% renewable by 2025
✓ Local resource prioritization
2. CleanPowerSF Goals and Time Coincidence by 2030
✓ 100% renewable by 2025
✓ Resource generation meets customer usage in real time CleanPowerSF analyzed the resource needs to meet both 90% and 95% time coincidence by 2030
✓ No system purchase 5-10pm
✓ Local resource prioritization
3. CleanPowerSF Goals and Mayor’s EV and Building
Decarbonization Targets MT
✓ 100% renewable by 2025
✓ Local resource prioritization
✓ Emission-free trips originating in, ending in, or passing through San Francisco by 2040
✓ Decarbonization of existing buildings by 2040
4. CleanPowerSF Goals and Local Resource Procurement
✓ 100% renewable by 2025
✓ Local content floor of 50% by 2030
Local Investment
5 • All portfolios include
85.6 MW of local solar,
150 MW of local battery
storage, and 50 MW of
local geothermal
• This represents $600-
$700 million
commitment to local
projects*
*Estimated cost of local resource contracts through 2045.
INITIAL RESULTS
COMPARISON OF
CONFORMING PORTFOLIOS
6 Comparison of Conforming Portfolios: Total
Portfolio Capacity by Technology (2035)
7 1084
749
110
73 100
180
Base Case 2035
New Resource Capacity = 742 MW
Total Resource Capacity = 2,296 MW
1684
699
310
200
73 100
180
95% Time Coincident 2035
New Resource Capacity = 1,692 MW
Total Resource Capacity = 3,246 MW
1084
799
210
103
100
180
90% Time Coincident 2035
New Resource Capacity = 922 MW
Total Resource Capacity = 2,476 MW
Comparison of Conforming Portfolios:
Energy Generated by Resource Type (2035)
8 10%
56%
10%
10%
15%
Base Case 2035
6%
58%
12%
12%
6%
7%
95% Time Coincident 2035
9%
50%13%
14%
14%
90% Time Coincident 2035
4,060,895 megawatt-hours (MWh)
6,841,623 megawatt-hours (MWh)
4,517,730 megawatt-hours (MWh)
Comparison of Conforming Portfolios:
Average Portfolio Costs (2023-2035)
9 $-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 $2021 Annual Portfolio Cost ($000)
Base Case
95% Time Coincident
90% Time Coincident
CleanPowerSF 10-Year Financial Plan Supply Costs
INITIAL RESULTS
MAYOR’S EV AND BUILDING
DECARBONIZATION TARGETS
MET PORTFOLIO
Alternative Portfolios
10 Mayor’s EV and Building Decarbonization
Targets Met Portfolio: Load Assumptions
11 0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Megawatt-hours (MWh)
CPUC Assigned Load Forecast
Mayor's EV and Building Decarbonization Targets Met Load Forecast The annual estimated increase in electricity usage resulting from the Mayor’s EV and Building Decarbonization Targets Met by 2040 averages 30% higher than CleanPowerSF’s assigned load forecast.
Mayor’s EV and Building Decarbonization
Targets Met Portfolio Results: New
Resource Capacity Build (2022-2035)
12 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Capacity (Megawatts, MW)
Solar Storage Wind Wind Offshore Geothermal
730.6 MW 571.8 MW 200 MW 100 MW 79.3 MW
INITIAL RESULTS
LOCAL RESOURCE
PROCUREMENT PORTFOLIO
Alternative Portfolios
13 Local Resource Assumptions
• Local Resources are defined as
resources sited in the nine Bay
Area counties: Alameda, Contra
Costa, Marin, Napa, San
Francisco, San Mateo, Santa
Clara, Solano, and Sonoma.
• To meet the 50% local content
target, the Local Resource
Procurement portfolio includes
995 MW of local resource
capacity by 2035.
14 Local Resource Procurement Portfolio
Results: Portfolio Content
15 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Solar Local Solar Wind
Local Wind Geothermal Local Geothermal
Existing Renewables Hydro CAISO System Power
CA RPS Requirement
The energy supply in the Local Resource Procurement portfolio provides a diverse energy mix, with local solar, wind, and geothermal supplying 50% of total energy supply by 2030.
Local Resource Procurement Portfolio
Results: Annual Portfolio Costs
16 The total projected revenue requirement in 2021 dollars for the Local Resource Procurement portfolio would be $2.75 billion vs. $2.32 billion projected in the 10-year financial plan during the 2023-2032 period (19% increase). $-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Annual Portfolio Cost ($000)
Local Resource Procurement Forecasted Supply Costs ($2021) CleanPowerSF's 10-Year Financial Plan Supply Costs ($2021) Next Steps
• Written comment period available at
https://www.cleanpowersf.org/resourceplan will
close at 5pm PST on Friday, October 14th.
• Staff will present IRP modeling results to the
Commission on October 11
th.
• Staff will return to the Commission on October
25 th to seek approval and adoption of a Preferred
Conforming Portfolio for submission of the IRP
Compliance Filing on November 1st.
17 APPENDIX
18 Key IRP Terms and Acronyms
Term (Acronym) Meaning
Analytical Modeling Mathematical technique used for simulating, explaining, and making predictions about a complex system
California Independent System
Operator (CAISO)
Organization that manages California’s bulk electricity grid, transmission lines, and wholesale energy market.
California Public Utilities
Commission (CPUC)
State energy regulatory agency that oversees the IRP process for Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU), Energy Service Providers (ESP) and Community Choice Aggregators (CCA)
Capacity The maximum output that a generator can produce, it is typically expressed in terms of megawatts (MW) or kilowatts (kW)
Capacity Factor A measure of how much energy is produced compared to the resource’s maximum capacity over a set period time, expressed as a percentage
Demand The amount of electricity usage met by a retail seller over a given period of time
Energy The ability to do work
Energy Storage A technology which captures energy produced at one time and discharges it for use at a later time
Hybrid Resources A generator that consists of two or more paired resource types eg., solar plus battery storage
19 Key Terms and Acronyms
Term (Acronym) Meaning
Integrated Energy Policy
Report (IEPR)
A biennial report issued by the California Energy Commission that contains an assessment of major energy trends and issues facing California’s electricity sector, including the demand forecast used in CleanPowerSF’s Integrated Resource Plan
Integrated Resource Planning A process that evaluates future electricity demand and resource options over a long time horizon, typically 20 years, and optimizes the resource mix that meets set criteria at the lowest cost Investment Tax Credit (ITC) A federal tax credit available to investment in solar power facilities and co-located energy storage facilities
Job-years A job creation metric which is equivalent to one full time job (2,080 working hours) for one year
Load Serving Entity (LSE) A retail seller of electricity Long-duration Energy Storage Battery storage of various technology types which can discharge for 8 hours or more
Megawatt (MW) 1,000,000 watts (a unit of power demand or generating capacity) MMT CO2 Million metric tons of carbon dioxide Portfolio A collection of power supply resources used to serve electricity demand
20 Key Terms and Acronyms
Term (Acronym) Meaning
Preferred Portfolio Of the portfolios modeled, the one which best meets program goals and regulatory requirements that is approved and submitted to the California Public Utilities Commission
Preferred System Plan The portfolio developed by the California Public Utilities Commission with an aggregation of individual IRPs of all retail sellers subject to CPUC jurisdiction that includes the CPUC’s view of the optimal mix of resources for the state over the IRP planning horizon
Reliability Need Share of resource capacity needed to meet the CAISO managed coincident peak assigned to retail sellers by the California Public Utilities Commission
Renewable Portfolio
Standard (RPS)
California State program that requires a minimum amount of electricity in retail seller portfolios to come from eligible renewable energy resources Resource Adequacy (RA) A capacity-based regulatory program intended to ensure that there are sufficient electricity generating resources to support reliable grid operation under peak demand conditions
Revenue Requirement The total amount of money an electricity provider collects from its customers
Sensitivity Analysis Analysis of the impact to the portfolio caused by a change to a variable in the analytical model
System Power Electric generation supplied by the grid at a particular time that is not associated with a specific generating facility
21