DEPARTMENT Water Enterprise
AGENDA NO.
15 MEETING DATE
October 24, 2022
APPROVAL:
COMMISSION
SECRETARY
Donna Hood
AGENDA ITEM
Public Utilities Commission
City and County of San Francisco
Approve Water Supply Assessment: Regular Calendar
Project Manager: Paula Kehoe
Approve Water Supply Assessment for the 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
Summary of
Proposed
Commission Action:
Approve the Water Supply Asses sment for the proposed 3251 20 th Avenue (Stonestown) Project, pursuant to California Water Code Section 10910 et seq., California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Section 21151.9, and CEQA Guidelines Section 15155.
Background: California’s Water Sup ply As sessment law ( California Water Code (Water Code) Sections 10910-10915) provides a nexus between the regional land use planning process and the environmental review process. The law also reflects the growing awareness of the need to incorporate water supply and demand analysis at the earliest possible stage in the land use planning process. The core of this law is the requirement for a public water system to prepare a Water Supply Assessment (WSA) of whether available water supplies are sufficient to serve the demand generated by projects of a specified size ( water demand projects
), as well as the reasonably foreseeable cumulative
demand in the region over the next 20 years under a range of hydrologic conditions.
The San Francisco Planning Department, which carries out the City ’s lead agency responsibilities under CEQA , is preparing an Environmental Impact Report for the proposed 3251 20 th Avenue (Stonestown) Project, which would redevelop approximately 27 a cres surrounding the existing Stonestown Galleri a sh opping mall into a master-planned, mult i-phased, mixed- used residenti al and retail community in the Lake shore area of southwest San Francisco. T he Project would include up to approximately 2,930 residential units; up to 160,000 sq uare feet (sf) of new retail sales and service use space; up to 200,000 sf of new non-retail sales and service use; up to approximately 100,000 sf of hotel use; approximately 53,000 sf of institutional uses; approximately 4,250 parking spaces; 6 acres of open space; and infrast ructure improvements. One variant would include development of the 0.8 -acre parcel that is currently occupied by Agreement: Approve Water Supply Assessment for the 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project Commission Meeting Date: October 24, 2022
Authentic Church into an additional 150 residential units; 10,000 sf of institutional use; and 200 parking spaces in a partially below grade parking structure.
The Pl anning Department identified the 3251 20 th Avenue (Stonestown) P roject as a water demand project , requiring the preparation of a WSA, because it i s a mixed-use residential development that would include more than 500 dwelling units.
The content of a WSA is specified by the Water Code and includes identification of any existing water supply entitlements or contracts and detailed information about groundwater supplies. It assesses the adequacy of water supplies to serve the pr oposed project and cumulative demand.
The WSA must be completed by the public water supplier that would serve the proposed project and be approved by its governing body at a public meeting . Approval of a WSA is not approval of the development project for which the WSA is prepared. A WSA is an informational document required to be prepared for use in the City’s environmental review of a proposed project under CEQA. T he Stonestown Project has been accounted for in SFPUC’s water supply planning as described in t he 2020 Urban Water Manage ment Plan (UWMP).
The attached WSA prepared by staff analyzes the sufficiency of long- term water supplies to serve the proposed proj ect and cumulative development over a 20 -year projection. The State Water Resou rces Control Board on December 12, 2018 adopted amendments to the Water Quality Control Plan for th e San Francisco Bay/Sacramento - San Joaquin Delta Estuary (Bay -Delta Plan Amendment) . If the Bay- Delta Plan Amendment were to be implemented, it would result in significant water supply shortages during single dry and multiple dry years. The City, along with multiple other water agencies, filed suit in early 2019 challenging the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. That lawsuit, which is consolidated with the other l egal challenges, is currently pending in Sacramento Superior Court. Since 2019, SFPUC has participated in negotiations with the State and other stakeholders regarding a voluntary agreement that could ultimate ly be adopted as an alternative or s ubstitute for the Bay -Delta Plan Amendment . On March 1, 2019, in ac cordance with the State Water Resources Control Board’s instruction, SFPUC submitte d to the State a proposed voluntary agreement (Proposed Voluntary Agreement). As of the date of the issuance of this Wat er Supply Assessment, those negotiations remain ongoing.
For these and other reasons described more fully in the attached WSA and in the 2020 UWMP, w hether the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment or the Proposed Voluntary Agreement will be implemented in the future is currently uncertain. Thus, the WSA analyzes three scenarios:
Agreement: Approve Water Supply Assessment for the 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project Commission Meeting Date: October 24, 2022
1. Scenario 1 : No implementation of the Bay -Delta Plan Amendment or the Proposed Voluntary Agreement
2. Scenario 2 : Implementation of the Prop osed Voluntary Agreement
3. Scenario 3: Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment
The WSA concludes that:
• During normal years, the SFPUC’s total projected water supplies will meet the projected demands of its retail
customers, including those of the proposed project, existing customers, and foreseeable future development under Scenario 1, Scenario 2, and Scenario 3.
• During single dry years and multiple dry years under Scenario 1, the SFPUC can meet the projected demands of its retail customers, including those of the proposed project, existing customers, and foreseeable future development without the need for water use reduction beyond the LOS goal of 20% system-wide water use reduction.
• During single dry years and multiple dry years under Scenario 2, the SFPUC would still face a shortfall in single dry and multiple dry years, thus requiring water use reduction, but to a lesser degree and in closer alignment to the LOS goal of no more than 20% system-wide water use reduction compared to that which would occur under Scenario 3.
• During single dry years and multiple dry years under Scenario 3, the SFPUC cannot reliably meet the projected demands of its retail customers, including the proposed project, existing customers, and foreseeable future development, without water use reduction at a level greater than that required to achieve the LOS goal of a maximum of 20% system-wide average water
use reduction starting as soon as 2022. The SFPUC estimates it would impose up to 35% water use reductions across the retail service area.
• The SFPUC’s 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan
describes allocation methods and processes that may be used in future droughts. For both residential and commercial customers, the SFPUC may implement varying levels of water use reductions based on the baseline level of water use, e.g. require less reduction from customers that use less water to begin with. For the proposed project specifically, these policies may result in lower levels of mandatory water use reduction as a result of the installation of water-efficient plumbing fixtures and non-potable water systems associated with new
construction.
• Under Scenario 3, the relatively small volume of water Agreement: Approve Water Supply Assessment for the 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project Commission Meeting Date: October 24, 2022
demand generated by the proposed project itself would not exacerbate the projected shortfalls resulting from
implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. Regardless of whether the proposed project is constructed, with
implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, the
SFPUC’s existing and planned water supplies will not meet the water demands of its retail service area in dry years without significant demand reductions.
Result of Inaction: A delay in approving this agenda item will result in the inability of the San Francisco Planning Department to complete the environmental review for the proposed 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project.
Description of
Action:
Approve the WSA for the proposed 3251 20 th Avenue (Stonestown) Project, pursuant to California Water Code Section 10910.
Environmental
Review:
Approval of t he WSA is not considered approva l of a project as defined in Section 15378 of the CEQA Guidelines . The WSA is required by and prepared according to the CEQA Guidelines and is an informational document only. Approval of the WSA does not constitute the Commission’s approval of th e p roposed 3251 20 th Avenue (Stonestown) Project.
The Planning Department’s case number for this proposed project is 2021-012028ENV.
Recommendation: SFPUC staff recommends that the Commission adopt the resolution.
Attachment: 1. Water Supply Assessment
PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
City and County of San Francisco
RESOLUTION NO.
WHEREAS, Under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and State of California Water Code (S ection 10910( g)(1)), the San Franci sco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) is required to prepare and approve a Water Supply Assessment (WSA) for the cumulative water demands presented by the proposed 3251 20 th Avenue (Stonestown) Project, which would redevelop approximately 27 a cres surro unding the existing Stonestown Galleria shopping mall into a master-planned, multi-phased, mixed-used residential and retail community in the Lakeshore area of southwest San Francisco; and
WHEREAS, The 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project is required to comply with the City’s Non-potable Water Ordinance, A rticle 12C of the San Francisco Health Code, and as a result, the Project will offset its potable water use through the use of alternate water sources; and WHEREAS, A WSA is an in formational document that assesses the adequacy of water supplies to serve a proposed project and is required to be prepared as part of the CEQA environmental review process; and
WHEREAS, The water demand associated with the 3251 20 th Avenue ( Stonestown) Project is encompassed within the 2020 Urban Water Manament Plan water demand projections; and
WHEREAS, Approval of a WSA as an informational document is not considered an approval of the project as defined in Section 15378 of the CEQA Guidelines; and WHEREAS, A WSA must be approved at a public meeting by the governing body of the public water supplier that would serve the proposed project; and WHEREAS, On December 12, 2018, the Sta te Water Resources Control Board adopted an amendment to the Water Qual ity Control Plan for the San Fr ancisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary (Bay-Delta Plan Amendment), which, if implemented in the future , would affect the Regional Water System supply and the SFPUC’s ability to meet the projected demands of existing and future retail customers, including the proposed project; and WHEREAS, Multiple lawsuits are pending challenging the Bay- Delta Plan Amendment, and the City is a party to one of those suits; and
WHEREAS, In accordance with the State Water Resources Control Board’s instruction, on March 1, 2019, th e SFPUC, in partnership with other key stakeholders, submitted a proposed voluntary agreement (Proposed Voluntary Agreement) for the State’s consideration as a substitute or replacement of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment; and WHEREAS, On March 26, 2019, by Resolution No. 19-0057, this Commission endorsed the SFPUC’s continued participation in the voluntary agreement negotiation pro cess and stated its intent that the terms of any final voluntary agreement would improve the health of the fisheries and maintain the reliability of its water supply including maintenance of its level of service (LOS) goal of no more than 20% system-wide rationing; and
WHEREAS, Because implementatio n of the Bay -Delta Pl an Amendment or an alternative Proposed Voluntary Agreement is uncertain at this time, the SFPUC staff prepared the attached WSA for the proposed 3251 20 th Avenue (Stone stown) Project, analyzing water supply and demand under three scenarios: (1) No i mplementation of t he Bay -Delta Plan Amendment or the Proposed Voluntary Agreement ( Scenario 1 ), (2) Implementation of the Proposed Voluntary Agreement ( Scenario 2 ), and (3) Im plementation of the Bay- Delta Plan Amendment (Scenario 3); and
WHEREAS, The WS A concludes t hat the SFPUC’s total proje cted water supplies through 2045 will (1) meet the demands of the proposed project in normal years under all three scenarios, (2) meet th e demands of the proposed project in dry years without rationing beyond the SFPUC’s Level of Service (LOS) goal of 20% system-wide rationing under Scenario 1, (3) meet the demands of the proposed project in dry years but require rationing closer to th e LOS goal under Scenario 2 , and (4) not reliably meet the demands of the proposed project w ithout rationing at a level gre ater than that required to achieve the L OS goal under Scenario 3 ; now, therefore, be it
RESOLVED, This Commission approves the attached Water Supply Assessment for the proposed 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project pursuant to the State of California Water Code Section 10910(g).
I hereby certify that the foregoing resolution was adopted by the Public Utilities Commission at its meeting of October 24, 2022.
Secretary, Public Utilities Commission
OUR MISSION: To provide our customers with high-quality, efficient and reliable water, power and sewer services in a manner that values environmental and community interests and sustains the resources entrusted to our care.
525 Golden Gate Avenue, 13th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94102
T 415.554.3155
F 415.554.3161
TTY 415.554.3488
September 29, 2022
TO: Commissioner Anson Moran, President
Commissioner Newsha Ajami, Vice President
Commissioner Sophie Maxwell
Commissioner Tim Paulson
THROUGH: Dennis J. Herrera, General Manager
FROM: Steven R. Ritchie, Assistant General Manager, Water
RE: Water Supply Assessment for the 3251 20
th Avenue (Stonestown)
Project
Summary
Introduction
The California Water Code (Sections 10910 through 10915) requires urban water suppliers like the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) to furnish a Water Supply Assessment (WSA) to the city or county that has jurisdiction to approve the environmental documentation for certain qualifying projects (as defined in Water Code Section 10912(a)) subject to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).
The WSA process typically relies on information contained in a water supplier’s Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) and involves answering specific questions related to the estimated water demand of the proposed project. This memo serves as the WSA for the proposed 3251 20
th Avenue (Stonestown) Project (proposed project), for use in the preparation of an environmental impact report by the San Francisco Planning Department (case no. 2021-012028ENV, San Francisco Planning Department).
1.1.1 2020 Urban Water Management Plan
The Commission, by Resolution No. 21-0100, adopted the SFPUC’s current 2020 UWMP. The water demand projections in the UWMP incorporated housing unit growth projections from the Housing Element 2022 Update objective and employment growth projections from the 2017 Land Use Allocation (LUA 2017); San Francisco Planning Department provided both projections. The water demand projections are presented in five-year increments through 2045, meeting Water Code requirements. Growth associated with the proposed project was encompassed within these projections, and water demand associated with the proposed project was encompassed within the 2020 UWMP water demand projections. In other words, the proposed project has already been accounted for in SFPUC’s water supply planning.
The WSA for a qualifying project within the SFPUC’s retail service area 1 may use information from the UWMP. Therefore, the 2020 UWMP is incorporated by reference throughout this WSA, as shown in bold, italicized text. The UWMP may be accessed at www.sfpuc.org/uwmp.
1 SFPUC’s “retail service area” refers to water customers inside the City and County of San Francisco (City), as well as select areas outside of the City. for
Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
As described in detail in Section 7.3.1 of the UWMP, in December 2018, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) adopted amendments to the Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary (Bay- Delta Plan Amendment). The City, along with multiple other water agencies, filed suit in early 2019 challenging the validity of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. That lawsuit, which is consolidated with other legal challenges, is currently pending in Sacramento Superior Court. In January 2021, the SWRCB moved to implement the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment on the Tuolumne River by issuing a water quality certification under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) licensing proceedings for the hydropower projects associated with the New Don Pedro and La Grange dams. The City and other water users on the Tuolumne River have filed pending legal and administrative challenges to these SWRCB actions.
FERC has not yet reissued a license for the New Don Pedro Hydropower Project, and the legal challenges to the water quality certification are pending and remain unresolved. Alongside the water quality certification, on August 8, 2022, the SWRCB issued a CEQA Notice of Preparation for an alternative means of implementing the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment.
Recognizing the obstacles to implementing the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, the SWRCB, by Resolution No. 2018-0059 adopting the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, directed staff to help complete a “Delta watershed-wide agreement, including potential flow measures for the Tuolumne River” by March 1, 2019, and to incorporate such agreements as an “alternative” for a future amendment to the Bay-Delta Plan to be presented to the SWRCB “as early as possible after December 1, 2019.” In accordance with the SWRCB’s instruction, on March 1, 2019, the SFPUC, in partnership with other key stakeholders, submitted a proposed project description for the Tuolumne River that could be the basis for a voluntary substitute agreement with the SWRCB (Proposed Voluntary Agreement). Since 2019, SFPUC has participated in negotiations with the State and other stakeholders regarding the Proposed Voluntary Agreement. As of the date of the issuance of this Water Supply Assessment, those negotiations remain ongoing.
Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment is uncertain given the ongoing litigation and regulatory proceedings; these are further described in Section 7.3.1 of the UWMP. Given the current uncertainty regarding the extent and timing of the implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, this WSA analyzes water supply and demand through 2045 under three scenarios: (1) No implementation of the Bay - Delta Plan Amendment or the Proposed Voluntary Agreement (Scenario 1), (2) Implementation of the Proposed Voluntary Agreement (Scenario 2), and (3) Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment (Scenario 3).
1.1.2 Basis for Requiring a WSA for the Proposed Project The proposed project has not been the subject of a previous WSA, nor has it been part of a larger project for which a WSA was completed.
The proposed project qualifies for preparation of a WSA under Water Code Section 10912(a) because it is a mixed-use residential development that includes more than 500 dwelling units. The proposed project is characterized further in Section 1.2.
1.2 Proposed Project Description
The proposed project is located on an approximately 41-acre site in the Lakeshore area in southwest San Francisco. The project sponsor (Brookfield Properties Development) proposes to redevelop the approximately 27 acres surrounding the Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
existing on-site Stonestown Galleria shopping mall into a master-planned, multi- phased, mixed-use residential and retail community. Under the proposed project, the existing 760,000-square-foot (sf) Stonestown Galleria shopping mall would remain, with changes to the façade, entrances, and exits. The existing parking garage in the southwest corner of the project site, the vacant theater at the northwest corner of the site, and the CitySports and commercial building at the northeast corner of the site would be demolished and redeveloped as part of the proposed project.
Overall, the proposed project would include up to approximately 2,930 residential units; up to 160,000 sf of new retail sales and service use space; up to 200,000 sf of new non-retail sales and service use; up to approximately 100,000 sf of hotel use; approximately 53,000 sf of institutional uses to include an approximately 15,000- square-foot childcare facility and space for community use; approximately 4,250 parking spaces; 6 acres of open space; and infrastructure improvements.
One variant to the proposed project is also under consideration, which would include the development of the 0.8-acre parcel that is currently occupied by Authentic Church at 3355 19
th Avenue, adjacent to the project site between Eucalyptus and Winston drives. Under the variant, the redevelopment of the 27 acres surrounding the Stonestown Galleria would be the same as the proposed project; however, the additional 0.8-acre Authentic Church parcel would be developed with an additional 150 residential units; 10,000 square feet of institutional use; and 200 parking spaces in a partially below grade parking structure.
For the purpose of the WSA, only the variant is assessed for water supply as it would result in a higher water demand estimate and would encompass the proposed project demands. Refer to Attachment B for additional details on both the proposed project and variant. All subsequent references to the “proposed project” in this memo refer to the variant unless otherwise noted.
Project construction would occur in six phases over the course of approximately eight years, from 2024 to approximately 2032. The first operational year is assumed to be 2027. By 2030, construction of Phases 1 through 3 is assumed to be completed, consisting of up to approximately 1,769 residential units (1,832,500 sf), up to 66,000 sf of new retail sales and service use space; up to 47,000 sf of new non-retail sales and service use; and up to approximately 21,000 sf of institutional uses.
For additional details on the proposed project, see Attachment B.
2.0 Water Supply
This section reviews San Francisco’s existing and planned water supplies.
2.1 Regional Water System
See Section 3.1 of the UWMP for descriptions of the San Francisco Regional Water System (RWS), Section 6.1 of the UWMP for water rights held by City and County of San Francisco, and Section 7.1 of the UWMP for the SFPUC Water System Improvement Program (WSIP).
2.2 Existing Retail Supplies
Retail water supplies from the RWS are described in Section 6.1 of the UWMP.
Local groundwater supplies, including the Westside Groundwater Basin, are described in Section 6.2.1 of the UWMP.
Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
Local recycled water supplies, including the Harding Park Recycled Water Project and Pacifica Recycled Water Project, are described in Section 6.2.1 of the UWMP.
2.3 Planned Retail Water Supply Sources
The San Francisco Groundwater Supply Project is described in Section 6.2.1.1 of the UWMP.
The Westside and Treasure Island Recycled Water Projects are described in Section
6.2.2 of the UWMP.
2.4 Summary of Current and Future Retail Water Supplies A breakdown of water supply sources for meeting SFPUC retail water demand through 2045 in normal years is provided in Section 6.2.5 of the UWMP. For dry years, see the next section.
2.5 Dry-Year Water Supplies
A description of dry-year supplies developed under WSIP is provided in Section 7.2 of the UWMP.
2.6 Additional Water Supplies
The SFPUC is increasing and accelerating its efforts to acquire additional water supplies and explore other projects that would increase overall water supply resilience through the Alternate Water Supply Program. A description of the Alternative Water Supply Program and the supplies being studied is provided in Section 7.4 of the UWMP.
3.0 Water Demand
This section reviews the projected retail water demands and the demand associated with the proposed project.
3.1 Projected Retail Water Demand
The projected retail water demand through 2045 is provided in Section 4.1 of the UWMP. This section also describes the methodology used for demand projections and the factors considered.
3.2 Proposed Project Water Demand
The project sponsor’s consultants provided a memo describing the methods and assumptions used to estimate the water demand of the proposed project, along with the resulting demand (Attachment B).
Because the proposed project must comply with San Francisco’s Non-potable Water Ordinance (Article 12C of the San Francisco Health Code), estimates for both potable and non-potable demands were submitted as part of the WSA request. The Non- potable Water Ordinance requires new development projects with 100,000 square feet or more of gross floor area, that apply for a site permit after January 1, 2022, to install and operate an onsite non-potable water system. Commercial buildings must meet their toilet and urinal flushing and drain trap priming demands through the collection, treatment, and use of available blackwater and condensate. Residential and mixed-use buildings must meet their toilet and urinal flushing, irrigation, clothes washing, and Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
drain trap priming demands through the collection, treatment, and use of available graywater and condensate. While not required, residential and mixed-use projects may use treated blackwater if desired. As indicated in the water demand memo provided on behalf of the project sponsor in Attachment B, the proposed project would exceed the requirements of the Non-potable Water Ordinance by also using non-potable water to meet heating and cooling demands, in addition to demands for toilet and urinal flushing, irrigation, clothes washing, and drain trap priming.
Both potable and non-potable demands for the project were estimated using the SFPUC’s Non-potable Water Calculator. The SFPUC reviewed the memo to ensure that the methodology is appropriate for the types of proposed water uses, the assumptions are valid and thoroughly documented along with verifiable data sources, and a professional standard of care was used. The SFPUC concluded that the demand estimates provided on behalf of the project sponsor are reasonable. Water demand associated with the proposed project over the 20-year planning horizon is shown in the following Table 1.
The non-potable demand estimates in Table 1 are based on building uses anticipated at the time the WSA was requested, i.e., during the planning and environmental review stage of the proposed project. It is understood that these estimates will likely change as the proposed project’s design progresses, and information submitted for the WSA request is not part of the proposed project’s compliance with the Non-potable Water Ordinance. City review and approval of a proposed onsite water system must be performed separately through the Non-potable Water Program. However, the intent of providing a breakdown of potable and non-potable demand estimates in this WSA is to demonstrate that the proposed project will incorporate water reuse per City requirements and the proposed project’s sustainability goals, if any. As noted earlier, the total demand of the proposed project, regardless of non-potable use, is already encompassed in the 2020 UWMP water demand projections. Furthermore, total demand represents the most conservative estimate and accounts for back-up potable supplies that must be provided by the SFPUC in the event that non-potable supplies serving the proposed project are unavailable.
Table 1: Water Demand Based on Project Phasing (mgd)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Potable Demand -- 0.083 0.152 0.152 0.152
Non-potable Demand -- 0.064 0.097 0.097 0.097
Total Demand -- 0.147 0.249 0.249 0.249
Potential Potable Water
Savings as Percentage of Total
Demand
-- 44% 39% 39% 39%
mgd = million gallons per day
Notes:
Total demand conservatively assumes that all demands are met with potable supplies. For the estimated portion of demands that could be met with non-potable supplies, refer to Attachment B.
The San Francisco Planning Department has determined that the proposed project is encompassed within the housing projections described in the Housing Element 2022 Update and the employment projections from LUA 2017, as indicated in the letter from the Planning Department to the SFPUC (Attachment A). Therefore, the demand of the proposed project is also encompassed within the San Francisco retail water demands that are presented in Section 4.1 of the UWMP, which considers retail water demand Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
based on the housing and employment projections provided by the Planning Department. The following Table 2 shows the demand of the proposed project relative to total retail demand.
Table 2: Proposed Project Demand Relative to Total Retail Demand 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Retail Demand (mgd)1 70.7 72.4 74.5 77.4 80.6
Total Demand of Proposed
Project (mgd) -- 0.147 0.249 0.249 0.249
Total Demand of Proposed
Project as Percentage of
Total Retail Demand2 -- 0.20% 0.33% 0.32% 0.31%
Notes:
1. Retail water demands per Table 4-1 of the UWMP.
2. The proposed project is accounted for in the housing and employment projections provided by the Planning Department; therefore, total demands associated with the proposed project are accounted for in the 2020 UWMP retail water demand projections.
4.0 Conclusion
4.1 Comparison of Projected Supply and Demand
For all scenarios presented here, local supplies (i.e., supplies not from the RWS) correspond to those in Table 6-5 of the UWMP. Procedures for determining RWS supply availability per the SFPUC’s Water Shortage Allocation Plan (WSAP) are described in Section 8.2.4 of the UWMP
.
As explained previously in Section 3.2, water demands associated with the proposed project are already captured in the retail demand projections presented in the UWMP.
The proposed project is expected to represent up to 0.33% of the total retail water demand. Total retail demands correspond to those in Table 4-1 of the UWMP and reflect both passive and active conservation, onsite water reuse savings, and water loss.
4.1.1 Scenario 1: No Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment or the Proposed Voluntary Agreement
Table 4 below is adapted from Section 8.4 of the UWMP (Table 8-6) and compares the SFPUC’s retail water supplies and demands through 2045 during normal year, single dry-, and multiple dry-year periods under Scenario 1.
As shown in Table 4, under Scenario 1 without implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, existing and planned supplies would meet all projected RWS demands in all years except in the 4
th and 5th years of a multi-year drought at 2045 projected levels of demand; the projected shortfall in those years is 4 mgd, or 5.3% of demand. To manage a small shortfall such as this, the SFPUC may prohibit certain discretionary outdoor water uses and/or call for voluntary water use reduction by its retail customers pursuant to its Water Shortage Contingency Plan (Appendix K of the UWMP). The required level of water use reduction is well below the SFPUC’s RWS level of service (LOS) goal of limiting water use reduction to no more than 20% on a system-wide basis (i.e., an average throughout the RWS) in drought years. In 2008, by Resolution No. 08- 0200, the Commission adopted this goal.
Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
4.1.2 Scenario 2: Implementation of the Proposed Voluntary Agreement A Voluntary Agreement has yet to be accepted by SWRCB as an alternative to the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment and thus the shortages that would occur with its implementation are not known with certainty. However, given that the objectives of the Proposed Voluntary Agreement are to provide fishery improvements while protecting water supply through flow and non-flow measures, the RWS supply shortfalls under the Proposed Voluntary Agreement would be less than those under the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment, and therefore would require water use reductions of a lesser degree than that which would occur under Scenario 3. The degree of water use reduction would also more closely align with the SFPUC’s RWS LOS goal of limiting water use reduction to no more than 20% on a system-wide basis in drought years.
4.1.3 Scenario 3: Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment Table 5 below provides projected supplies and demands under Scenario 3. The RWS is projected to experience significant shortfalls in single dry and multiple dry years through 2045, regardless of whether the proposed project is constructed. These significant shortfalls are a result of implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment and not attributed to the incremental retail demand associated with the proposed project. Shortfalls would range from about 11 to 29 mgd, corresponding to water use reduction in the retail service area ranging from 14-35%, over the next 20 years.
Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
Table 3: Projected Supply and Demand Comparison Under Scenario 1 (No Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment or the Proposed Voluntary Agreement) (mgd)
Normal
Year
Single
Dry Year1
Multiple Dry Years2
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2025
Total Retail Demand3 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 Total Retail Supply4 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 Shortfall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2030
Total Retail Demand3 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 Total Retail Supply4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 Shortfall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2035
Total Retail Demand3 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 Total Retail Supply4 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 Shortfall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2040
Total Retail Demand3 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 Total Retail Supply4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 Shortfall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2045
Total Retail Demand3, 5 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 76.6 76.6 Total Retail Supply4 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 Shortfall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 5.3% Notes:
1. During all single dry years, no RWS system-wide shortages are in effect.
2. During multiple dry years, no RWS system-wide shortages are in effect until years 4 and 5 at 2045 levels of demand. During those years, a 10% system-wide shortage is in effect.
3. Total retail demands correspond to those in Table 4-1 of the UWMP
4. Local supplies (i.e., supplies not from the RWS, including groundwater and recycled water) correspond to those in Table 6-5 of the UWMP. Local supplies are assumed to be used before RWS supplies to meet retail demand.
5. As amended in 2018, the WSAP Tier One Allocation Plan requires retail customers to conserve a minimum of 5% during droughts. If, during a declared water shortage, retail demands on the RWS are lower than the retail allocation in a dry year, retail demands on the RWS will be reduced by 5%. This provision is in effect in years 4 and 5 of a multi-dry year sequence at 2045 levels of demand.
Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
Table 4: Projected Supply and Demand Comparison Under Scenario 3 (Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment) (mgd)
Normal
Year
Single
Dry
Year1
Multiple Dry Years2
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2025
Total Retail Demand3 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 70.7 Total Retail Supply4 70.7 59.5 59.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 Shortfall 0.0 -11.2 -11.2 -19.2 -19.2 -19.2 -19.2
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% -15.9% -15.9% -27.2% -27.2% -27.2% -27.2% 2030
Total Retail Demand3 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 Total Retail Supply4 72.4 61.4 61.4 53.4 53.4 53.4 53.4 Shortfall 0.0 -11.0 -11.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% -15.1% -15.1% -26.3% -26.3% -26.3% -26.3% 2035
Total Retail Demand3 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 Total Retail Supply4 74.5 63.8 63.8 55.5 55.5 55.5 51.4 Shortfall 0.0 -10.7 -10.7 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -23.1
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% -14.4% -14.4% -25.5% -25.5% -25.5% -31.0% 2040
Total Retail Demand3 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 77.4 Total Retail Supply4 77.4 66.4 66.4 57.9 57.9 52.0 52.0 Shortfall 0.0 -11.0 -11.0 -19.5 -19.5 -25.4 -25.4
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% -14.2% -14.2% -25.2% -25.2% -32.8% -32.8% 2045
Total Retail Demand3 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 80.6 Total Retail Supply4 80.6 60.1 60.1 60.1 60.1 52.1 52.1 Shortfall 0.0 -20.5 -20.5 -20.5 -20.5 -28.5 -28.5
Shortfall as % of Demand 0.0% -25.4% -25.4% -25.4% -25.4% -35.4% -35.4% Notes:
1. During a single dry year, system-wide shortages of 30 – 40% are in effect (see Table 8-3 of the 2020 UWMP). For this analysis, shortages greater than 20% are considered to have the same retail/wholesale allocation as the maximum Stage 4, 16-20% system-wide shortage in the Water Shortage Allocation Plan (WSAP).
2. During multiple dry years, system-wide shortages of 30 – 55% are in effect (see Table 8-3 of the 2020 UWMP). For this analysis, shortages greater than 20% are considered to have the same retail/wholesale allocation as the maximum Stage 4, 16-20% system-wide shortage in the WSAP.
3. Total retail demands correspond to those in Table 4-1 of the UWMP.
4. Local supplies (i.e., supplies not from the RWS, including groundwater and recycled water) correspond to those in Table 6-5 of the UWMP. Local supplies are assumed to be used before RWS supplies to meet retail demand.
Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
4.2 Potential for Shortages in SFPUC Service Area
The inflow to SFPUC reservoirs can vary greatly from year to year, based on the hydrology of the region. When inflows are low during dry years, the potential exists for water supply shortages in the SFPUC service area. The occurrence of shortages depends on the magnitude and duration of dry conditions, and also on the system demand for water supply.
• In an evaluation of historical hydrology (1920 – 2017) combined with 2020 system demand, the potential for water supply shortages due to dry hydrology is low.
• When projected system demand in 2045 (an increase over 2020 demand) is evaluated along with historical hydrology, the potential for shortage increases but remains relatively low.
• When large increases in instream flow requirements (such as those associated with the Bay-Delta Plan update) are included in either of the above evaluations, the potential for water shortages in the SFPUC system increases markedly.
The instream flow requirements are analogous to an increase in demand in this evaluation.
4.3 Water Use Reduction Implications to the Proposed Project While the levels of water use reduction described above apply to the retail service area as a whole (i.e., 0-5% under Scenario 1, 14-35% under Scenario 3), the SFPUC may allocate different levels of water use reduction to individual retail customers based on customer type (e.g., dedicated irrigation, single family residential, multi-family residential, commercial) to achieve the required level of retail system-wide demand reduction. Allocation methods and processes that have been considered in the past and may be used in future droughts are described in the SFPUC’s 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan (Appendix K of the UWMP). For both residential and commercial customers, the SFPUC may implement varying levels of water use reductions based on the baseline level of water use, e.g., require less reduction from customers that use less water to begin with. Under the 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan, the allocation method or combination of methods that would be applied during water shortages caused by drought would be subject to the discretion of the General Manager.
In accordance with the Water Shortage Contingency Plan, the level of water use reduction that would be imposed on the proposed project would be determined at the time of a drought or other water shortage and cannot be established with certainty prior to the shortage event. However, newly constructed buildings, such as the proposed project, have water-efficient fixtures and non-potable water systems that comply with the latest regulations and should be better prepared than older buildings to meet the required reductions.
4.4 Findings
Regarding the availability of water supplies to serve the proposed project beginning in 2027, the SFPUC finds, based on the entire record before it, as follows:
• During normal years, the SFPUC’s total projected water supplies will meet the projected demands of its retail customers, including those of the proposed project, existing customers, and foreseeable future development under Scenario 1, Scenario 2, and Scenario 3.
• During single dry years and multiple dry years under Scenario 1—No implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment or a Voluntary Agreement— the SFPUC can meet the projected demands of its retail customers, including those of the proposed project, existing customers, and foreseeable future Memo to Commissioners
WSA for 3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project
September 29, 2022
development without the need for water use reduction beyond the LOS goal of 20% system-wide water use reduction.
• During single dry years and multiple dry years under Scenario 2— Implementation of a Voluntary Agreement—the SFPUC would still face a shortfall in single dry and multiple dry years, thus requiring water use reduction, but to a lesser degree and in closer alignment to the LOS goal of no more than 20% system-wide water use reduction compared to that which would occur under Scenario 3.
• During single dry years and multiple dry years under Scenario 3— Implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment—the SFPUC cannot reliably meet the projected demands of its retail customers, including the proposed project, existing customers, and foreseeable future development, without water use reduction at a level greater than that required to achieve the LOS goal of a maximum of 20% system-wide average water use reduction starting as soon as 2022. The SFPUC estimates it would impose up to 35% water use reductions across the retail service area.
• The SFPUC’s 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan describes allocation methods and processes that may be used in future droughts. For both residential and commercial customers, the SFPUC may implement varying levels of water use reductions based on the baseline level of water use, e.g., require less reduction from customers that use less water to begin with. For the proposed project specifically, these policies may result in lower levels of mandatory water use reduction as a result of the installation of water-efficient plumbing fixtures and non-potable water systems associated with new construction.
• Under Scenario 3, the relatively small volume of water demand generated by the proposed project itself would not exacerbate the projected shortfalls resulting from implementation of the Bay-Delta Plan Amendment. Regardless of whether the proposed project is constructed, with implementation of the Bay- Delta Plan Amendment, the SFPUC’s existing and planned water supplies will not meet the water demands of its retail service area in dry years without significant demand reductions.
Approval of this WSA by the Commission is not equivalent to approval of the development project for which the WSA is prepared. A WSA is an informational document required to be prepared for use in the City’s environmental review of a project under CEQA. It assesses the adequacy of water supplies to serve the proposed project and cumulative demand.
Furthermore, this WSA is not a “will serve” letter and does not verify the adequacy of existing distribution system capacity to serve the proposed project. A “will serve” letter and/or hydraulic analysis must be requested separately from the SFPUC City Distribution Division to verify hydraulic capacity.
While this WSA contains information provided by or on behalf of the project sponsor regarding the proposed project’s plans for onsite water reuse and demand estimates using the SFPUC’s Non-potable Water Calculator, any information submitted to the SFPUC for preparation of this WSA does not fulfill the requirements of the Non-potable Water Ordinance. City review and approval of a proposed onsite water system must be performed separately through the Non-potable Water Program.
If there are any questions or concerns, please contact Steve Ritchie at (415) 934-5736 or [email protected].
Attachments: Attachment A, Communications from San Francisco Planning Department
Attachment B, 3251 20
th Avenue (Stonestown) Project Demand Memo
Attachment A –
Communications from San Francisco Planning Department
October 27, 2020
Michael P . Carlin
Deputy General Manager, SFPUC
525 Golden Gate Street
San Francisco, CA 94102
Re: Projections of growth for San Francisco 2020-2040
Dear Michael:
I am forwarding you information regarding the Department's current growth projections for households and jobs as requested by Paula Kehoe, Manager, Water Resources Planning, SFPUC.
Citywide Land Use Allocation
Table 1 shows the Planning Department’s housing and job growth projections for the years 2020-2045. Housing growth is based on the Housing Element 2022 Update and job growth is based on the current citywide Land Use Allocation (LUA) 2017.
Table 1: Development Projections
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Housing Units 399,313 425,118 450,923 476,728 502,533 528,338 Jobs 785,530 823,505 840,270 862,315 872,510 894,255
The Planning Department is currently updating the city’s General Plan Housing Element (Housing Element 2022 Update). The housing element update is required to be adopted by the city and submitted to the state Department of Housing and Community Development by January 2023. One of the primary goals of the Housing Element 2022 Update is to improve housing affordability by increasing the rate of housing production compared with the past several decades. The housing unit figure for 2020 is based on the Planning Department’s 2019 Housing Inventory report, which indicates that the city had a total of 399,313 housing units as of January 1, 2020, and the successive year projections are based on the Housing Element 2022 Update objective of producing an average of 5,000 housing units per year with adjustments for certain large development plans.
The Planning Department routinely updates its LUA when ABAG/MTC updates their regional projections, typically every four years as part of the Plan Bay Area adoption process. The most recent Plan Bay Area was adopted in
2 July 2017 and had a time horizon of 2040. Since the 2017 Plan Bay Area projections only extend through 2040, for the purposes of this projection series for the UWMP, we have projected the additional five-year period through 2045 using the average annual job growth rate (+4,350 jobs/year) projected for the 2020-2040 period. The regional agencies are currently in the midst of the planning process for Plan Bay Area 2050, including producing and refining the county and jurisdiction-level housing, household, and job projections through 2050, scheduled for adoption in summer 2021. Following adoption of Plan Bay Area 2050, the department will produce a new LUA that extends to the year 2050, a process that typically takes a few months to complete.
The department uses the LUA for a variety of purposes, including analyzing impacts of plans and projects undergoing the environmental review process, and the LUA is provided to many agencies analyzing future infrastructure and operational needs. We continue to use the current LUA until ABAG/MTC finalizes a new set of projections series that extends the projections horizon, though the department occasionally adjusts the LUA at a sub-city geographic level in the intervening years in the case of adoption of previously unforeseen major new plans, projects or zoning changes that might change the distribution of projected growth within the city.
In preparing the LUA, the department's method uses the best information available to allocate the growth to location. That information includes proposed and entitled projects (the "pipeline"), expected area plan development based on proposed and approved area plans, and parcels with the greatest likelihood of new development based on existing conditions, zoning, and existing policies. Typically, the LUA allocates household and job growth earlier in the time series to development in the pipeline, with later years assigned to other areas.
Note that the LUA assumes that large master plan development agreement projects intended to be built in phases over time (e.g. Treasure Island, Parkmerced, Pier 70), will be built in increments over the period of their entitlement (which varies from approximately ten to thirty years depending on the project). It is also the case that the LUA allocates projections for some households and jobs to existing development to account for economic and demographic changes (e.g. assigning jobs to existing office space due to economic changes in unemployment levels and worker densities, assigning households to existing housing due to changes in vacancy rates).
Housing Typology Composition of Projected Growth (Single Family vs Multi-Family)
In addition to the request for the current LUA, it is our understanding that SFPUC would like to understand the proportion of new housing construction that is projected to take the form of single-family houses 1 versus units in
in multi-family structures, since water consumption per household is substantially less in multi-family structures than for single-family detached houses. The Planning Department recommends that the SFPUC assume for the purposes of modelling citywide projected housing development in San Francisco that the number of single- family detached houses will not increase from existing stock and that all future net housing growth will take the form of multi-family structures.
1 For the purposes of this discussion, “single family home” means a detached house consisting of a single housing unit, typical ly on its own assessor’s lot.
Attached townhouses are not included in this definition.
3 While the majority (62%) of San Francisco’s residential land is currently zoned for single-family housing, approximately 30% of the existing housing stock (in terms of units) is comprised of single-family houses2 and there is little to no vacant land in San Francisco zoned for single-family houses. Nearly all new housing built in San Francisco is in the form of units in multi-family buildings, ranging from duplexes and attached townhouses up through mid-rise and high-rise buildings, with the vast majority of units produced each year in larger structures with more than 20 units. As published in our 2019 Housing Inventory document3, of the net housing growth from 2010-2019 less than 1% was in the form of single-family buildings.
Of the total units authorized for construction each year from 2015-2019, the annual percentage of units that were single-family houses averaged less than 1%, with the percentage in 2018 and 2019 being less than 0.6%, as shown in the table below. However, an even more significant trend is addition to or conversion of single household properties to convert them into multi-family properties, ranging from the additions of accessory dwelling units to existing houses to the replacement of existing houses with multi-family structures. An average of 14 single family homes were demolished annually 2015-2019, and 270 accessory dwelling units were added to structures in San Francisco in 2019, many of which were added to previously single-family structures. As a result, the net addition of single-family houses to city over the past several years has likely been negligible or effectively zero. Moreover, given the scarcity and cost of land in San Francisco and city, regional and state goals to maximize housing production in urbanized areas that are served by transit and have access to jobs and other urban opportunities, the few single family houses that are likely to be built in the foreseeable future would be incorporated as a small component of the relatively few large master developments4 in the city.
2 Housing Needs and Trends Report, Table 1. San Francisco Planning Department, 2018, 3 Housing Inventory 2019 is available at https://sfplanning.org/resource/housing -inventory-2019. 4 For instance, there are 12 single family houses included in the approved 273-unit redevelopment of the fo rmer CPMC hospital site at 3700 California Street.
4 If you or your staff has any questions, please contact me at [email protected] or Scott Edmondson, by telephone (1-628.652.7432 ) or email ([email protected]).
Sincerely,
Joshua Switzky
Land Use & Community Planning Program Manager
Citywide Division
cc:
Paula Kehoe, SFPUC
Sarah Trilio, SFPUC
Scott Edmondson, Planning
Chris Kern, Planning
Attachment B –
3251 20th Avenue (Stonestown) Project Demand Memo
September 14, 2022
To: Fan Lau, P.E. – San Francisco Utilities Commission
From: Florentina Craciun, AICP – Environmental Planning
Re: 3251 20th Avenues (Stonestown) Water Supply Assessment Request Planning Department File No. 2021-012028ENV
The purpose of this memorandum is to request that the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) prepare a Water Supply Assessment (WSA) for the proposed project at 3251 20 th Avenue (Stonestown), in compliance with CEQA Guidelines Section 15155 and Sections 10910 through 10915 of the California Water Code.
The project sponsor (Brookfield Properties Development) proposes to redevelop the approximately 27 acres of surface parking surrounding the existing Stonestown Galleria shopping mall into a master -planned, multi-phased, mixed-use residential and retail community. Under the proposed project, the existing 775,000 -square-foot mall would remain, with changes to the façade, entrances, and exits. Overall, the proposed project would include up to approximately 2,930 residential units; up to 160,000 square feet of new retail sales and service use space; up to 200,000 square feet of non -retail sales and service use; up to approximately 100,000 square feet of hotel use; approximately 53,000 square feet of institutional uses; approximately 4,250 parking spaces; 6 acres of open space; and infrastructure improvements. The Environmental Impact Report will also analyze one variant to the proposed project, which would include the development of the parcel that is currently occupied by Authentic Church (Block/Lot 7295/002) at 3355 19th Avenue, adjacent to the project site between Eucalyptus and Winston drives. Under the Authentic Church Variant (variant), the redevelopment of the 27 acres surrounding the Stonestown Galleria would be the same as the proposed project; however, the 0.8 -acre Authentic Church parcel would be developed with an additional 150 residential units; 10,000 square feet of institutional use; and 200 parking spaces in a partially below grade parking structure.
The project sponsor provided project information intended to meet the requirements outlined in the SFPUC guidance memo dated January 13, 2022. A summary of the project description, average daily water demands, and supporting tables prepared by the project sponsor’s consultant (based on the SFPUC Distric t Scale Non-Potable Water Calculator Version 9.1), are attached.
Should you have questions or need additional information from the Planning Department or the project sponsor, please contact me at 628.652.7510 or [email protected].
Sincerely,
Florentina Craciun, AICP
September 23, 2022
Florentina Craciun, San Francisco Planning Department, Environmental Planning
Susan Yogi and Jill Feyk-Miney, ESA
Stonestown Development Project Demand Memorandum for Preparation of Water Supply Assessment Case No. 2021-012028ENV
This memorandum presents a project description and project information regarding water demand in order for the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) to prepare a Water Supply Assessment (WSA) for the Stonestown Development Project (proposed project). The SFPUC will prepare the WSA for the proposed project based on the 2020 Urban Water Management Plan for the City and County of San Francisco. This memo is expected to be attached to the WSA as an appendix and referenced in the WSA as needed. Table 1 provides the basic information of the proposed project.
TABLE 1 – PROJECT INFORMATION
Project Name Stonestown Development Project
Case No. 2021-012028ENV
Estimated Construction Completion 2032
Project Contact Florentina Craciun – (628) 652-7510, [email protected] Current Land Use(s) Retail Sales and Services (shopping mall) Parking Lots
Institutional
Proposed Land Use(s) Retail Sales and Services
Non-Retail Sales and Services
Parking Lots
Hotel
Institutional
Project Address 3251 20th Avenue
Block/Lot 7295/Lots 2, 4, 6, 7, 35, 37, 38; 7296/Lots 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Project Site Size 1,1781,604 square feet (40.9 acres)
Days In Operation Per Year 365 residential days; 365 retail days; 260 childcare days
Stonestown Development Project Demand Memorandum for Preparation of Water Supply Assessment Case No. 2021-012028ENV 2 Proposed Project Description
The proposed Stonestown Development Project is located on an approximately 41-acre site in the Lakeshore area in southwest San Francisco. The project sponsor (Brookfield Properties Development) proposes to redevelop the approximately 27 acres surrounding the existing on-site Stonestown Galleria shopping mall into a master- planned, multi-phased, mixed-use residential and retail community. Under the proposed project, the existing 760,000-square-foot Stonestown Galleria shopping mall would remain, with changes to the façade, entrances, and exits. The existing parking garage in the southwest corner of the project site, the vacant theater at the northwest corner of the site, and the CitySports and commercial building at the northeast corner of the site would be demolished and redeveloped as part of the proposed project.
Overall, the proposed project would include up to approximately 2,930 residential units; up to 160,000 square feet of new retail sales and service use space; up to 200,000 square feet of new non-retail sales and service use1; up to approximately 100,000 square feet of hotel use; approximately 53,000 square feet of institutional uses to include an approximately 15,000-square-foot childcare facility and space for community use; approximately 4,250 parking spaces; 6 acres of open space; and infrastructure improvements (refer to Table 2, for existing, proposed, and net new uses. One variant to the proposed project (variant) is also under consideration, which would include the development of the 0.8-acre parcel that is currently occupied by Authentic Church (Block/Lot 7295/002) at 3355 19th Avenue, adjacent to the project site between Eucalyptus and Winston drives. Under the variant, the redevelopment of the 27 acres surrounding the Stonestown Galleria would be the same as the proposed project; however, the additional 0.8-acre Authentic Church parcel would be developed with an additional 150 residential units; 10,000 square feet of institutional use; and 200 parking spaces in a partially below grade parking structure.
The WSA calculator prepared for the proposed project uses the variant land use program to provide a conservative estimate of water demand for the proposed project (see Attachment 1).
Table 2: Project Characteristics (including the Authentic Church Variant) Project Characteristics Existing Proposed Project
Proposed Project Including Authentic
Church Variant
Residential Use 0 Up to 3,100,000 sf 3,200,000 sf
Retail Sales and Services
Usea
760,000 sf mall
13,300 sf, 30-
foot-tall vacant
theater
15,000 sf, 15- to
30-foot-tall
commercial
building
Up to 160,000 sf
710,000d sf of the existing mall retained
13,300 sf vacant theater, 50,000 sf
CitySports building, and 15,000 sf
commercial building to be demolished
81,700 sf net new
Up to 160,000 sf
710,000d sf of the existing mall retained
13,300 sf vacant theater, 50,000 sf
CitySports building, and 15,000 sf
commercial building to be demolished
81,700f net new
Non-Retail Sales and
Service Useb
0 Up to 200,000 net new sf Up to 200,000 net new sf
Hotel 0 Up to 100,000 sf (200 rooms) net new Up to 100,000 sf (200 rooms) net new Institutional Usec 30,000 sf, 30-
foot-tall church
Up to 53,000 net new sf; including an
approximately 15,000-square-foot childcare
facility
Up to 63,000 sf
30,000 sf church demolished
33,000 sf net new; including an
approximately 15,000-square-foot childcare
facility
1 “Non-Retail Sales and Service Use” includes business services, catering, commercial storage, design professional, general office, laboratory, life science, non-retail professional service, trade office, wholesale sales, and wholesale storage (planning code section 102).
Stonestown Development Project Demand Memorandum for Preparation of Water Supply Assessment Case No. 2021-012028ENV 3 Project Characteristics Existing Proposed Project
Proposed Project Including Authentic
Church Variant
Proposed Dwelling Units
Number
(approximate)
Percentage
(approximate)
Number
(approximate)
Percentage
(approximate)
Studio N/A 586 20% 616 20%
1-bedroom N/A 1,172 40% 1,232 40%
2-bedroom N/A 879 30% 924 30%
3-bedroom N/A 293 10% 308 10%
Total Dwelling Units 2,930 100% 3,080 100%
Proposed Parking Number (approximate)
Vehicle parking spaces: 3,400
2,450 surface
parking spaces
700-space
parking garage
250 spaces
below shopping
mall
4,250
-700 space parking garage to be
demolished
-2,450 surface parking to be removed
250 spaces below shopping mall retained
+190 new spaces for expanded parking
below shopping mall
+770-space new parking garage
+Remaining 3,040 spaces distributed
throughout site
600 net new spacese
4,450
-700 space parking garage to be
demolished
-2,450 surface parking to be removed
250 spaces below shopping mall retained
+190 new spaces for expanded parking
below shopping mall
+770-space new parking garage
+Remaining 3,240 spaces distributed
throughout site
800 net new spacese
Car-Share parking
spaces
0 82 82
Bicycle parking:
Bicycle parking class 1 33 885 923
Bicycle parking class 2 67 245 253
Total Bicycle Parking 100 1,130 net new 1,176 net new
Open Space Area
Publicly accessible open
space
1.6 acres Approximately 6 net new acres
Private residential open
space
N/A Approximately 36 square feet per unit if located on balcony, or approximately 48 square feet per unit if commonly accessible to residents, or as otherwise refined in the planning code.
Building Characteristics
Stories 1 to 3 stories 3 to 18 stories
Height 15 to 65 feet 30 to 190 feet
Ground floor Retail sales and
service
All blocks would include ground floor active uses, which could include any combination of retail sales and service, non-retail sales and service, institutional, or residential space facing the street
NOTES
a “Retail Sales and Service Use” is a use category that includes, but not limited to: the sale of goods, typically in small quantities, or services directly to the ultimate consumer or end user with some space for retail service on site, excluding Retail Entertainment Arts and Recreation, and Retail Automobile Uses and including, but not limited to: Adult Business, Animal Hospital, Bar, Cannabis Retail, Chair and Foot Massage, Tourist Oriented Gift Store, General Grocery, Specialty Grocery, Gym 2 Hotel, Jewelry Store, Kennel, Laundromat, Liquor Store, Massage Establishment, Mortuary (Columbarium), Motel, Non- Auto Sales, Pharmacy, Restaurant, Limited Restaurant, General Retail Sales and Service, Financial Service, Fringe Financial Service, Limited Financial Service, Health Service, Personal Service, Retail Professional Service, Self-Storage, Tobacco Paraphernalia Establishment, and Trade Shop (planning code section 102).
b “Non-Retail Sales and Service Use” includes the sale of goods or services to other businesses rather than the end user, or that does not provide for direct sales to the consumer on site. Uses in this category include, but are not limited to: Business Services, Catering, Commercial Storage, Design Professional, General Office, Laboratory, Life Science, Non-Retail Professional Service, Trade Office, Wholesale Sales, and Wholesale Storage (planning code section 102).
Stonestown Development Project Demand Memorandum for Preparation of Water Supply Assessment Case No. 2021-012028ENV 4 Project Characteristics Existing Proposed Project
Proposed Project Including Authentic
Church Variant
c “Institutional Use” includes Child Care Facility, Community Facility, Private Community Facility, Hospital, Job Training, Medical Cannabis Dispensary, Religious Institution, Residential Care Facility, Social Service or Philanthropic Facility, Post-Secondary Educational Institution, Public Facility, School, and Trade School (planning code section 102).
d The 50,000 sf CitySports building would be demolished and is subtracted from the existing mall square footage to be retained. e The proposed project and variant would both retain the 250 spaces below shopping mall; therefore, these spaces are not counted in the ‘net new’ number of parking spaces. 4,250 proposed project spaces - 250 retained spaces = 4,000 new project spaces. 4,000 spaces – 3,400 existing spaces = 600 net new spaces for the proposed project; 4,450 variant spaces – 250 retained spaces = 4,200 new variant spaces. 4,200 variant spaces – 3,400 existing spaces = 800 net new spaces for the variant.
Project construction would occur in six phases over the course of approximately eight years, from 2024 to approximately 2032 (see Table 3 below). The first operational year is assumed to be 2027. By 2030, construction of Phases 1-3 is assumed to be completed, consisting of up to approximately 1,769 residential units (1,832,500 square feet), up to 66,000 square feet of new retail sales and service use space; up to 47,000 square feet of new non-retail sales and service use2; and up to approximately 21,000 square feet of institutional uses.3 Table 3: Preliminary Estimated Construction Schedule
Construction Phase Start Finish Duration (Months)
Phase 1 4/1/2024 1/11/2028 45
Phase 2 4/1/2025 12/22/2028 44
Phase 3 6/1/2026 10/1/2028 28
Phase 4a 4/1/2027 12/1/2030 44
Phase 5 4/1/2028 11/1/2031 43
Phase 6 4/1/2029 4/1/2032 36
Total 4/1/2024 4/1/2032 96
SOURCE: Brookfield Properties Development, 2022.
NOTE:
a The construction of the Authentic Church Variant would be accommodated within Phase 4.
The proposed project will meet the requirements of all applicable City and County of San Francisco ordinances related to water conservation and resources, including:
The proposed project would construct potable water distribution pipelines to serve the new uses. The existing potable water pipeline in the segments of 20th Avenue and Buckingham Way would be relocated to the proposed alignments of these street. To reduce potable water demand, high-efficiency fixtures and appliances would be installed in new buildings comply with the state’s Title 24 requirements and the City’s Residential Water Conservation Ordinance (San Francisco Housing Code, Ch. 12A) and Commercial Water Conservation Ordinance (San Francisco Building Code, Ch. 13A).
2 “Non-Retail Sales and Service Use” includes business services, catering, commercial storage, design professional, general office, laboratory, life science, non-retail professional service, trade office, wholesale sales, and wholesale storage (planning code section 102).
3 Brookfield Properties Development, 2022, Stonestown Program Summary Spreadsheet, February 17, 2022.
Stonestown Development Project Demand Memorandum for Preparation of Water Supply Assessment Case No. 2021-012028ENV 5 The project site is located within a designated recycled water use area, and the proposed project would provide the piping needed to distribute recycled water when it becomes available, as required under San Francisco's Recycled Water Use Ordinance (San Francisco Public Works Code, Article 22). The proposed project would comply with San Francisco’s Non-potable Water Ordinance (San Francisco Health Code, Article 12C) and would include the diversion and reuse of water from HVAC/cooling systems, graywater, blackwater (from commercial uses only), and rainwater for toilet and urinal flushing, cooling towers, residential laundry, and irrigation or landscaped areas. Landscaped areas would be installed, constructed, operated, and maintained in accordance with the Water Efficient Irrigation Ordinance (San Francisco Administrative Code, Ch. 63).
Proposed Project Water Demand
Table 4 shows the estimated daily and annual water demand for the proposed project by land use category. As shown, the total water use for the proposed project would be approximately 248,700 gallons per day (gpd), or 90.74 million gallons per year (gpy). Of the total water demand, 82.22 million gpy would be for indoor water use and 8.52 million gpy would be for irrigation and HVAC/cooling purposes. In addition, because the proposed project would comply with the City’s Non-potable Water Ordinance and Recycled Water Use Ordinance, other water saving measures involving water efficient fixtures and onsite reuse, could result in the availability of up to 46.16 million gpy of non-potable water to offset projected water demand. Approximately 35.32 million gpy or 39 percent of proposed project demand is expected to be met by non-potable supply. The calculations were developed using the SFPUC District Scale Non-Potable Water Calculator, Version 9.1.
Table 4: Proposed Project Estimated Water Demand
Proposed Use
Estimated
Daily Water
Demand (gpd)
Estimated Annual
Water Demand
(gpy)
Commercial water demand (indoor) 15,746 5,747,220
Multi-Family water demand (indoor) 209,507 76,469,901
Landscape irrigation demand (outdoor) 6,259 2,284,409
HVAC/Cooling demand (outdoor) 17,091 6,238,215
TOTALa 248,700 90,739,800
Stonestown Development Project Demand Memorandum for Preparation of Water Supply Assessment Case No. 2021-012028ENV 6 The following summary tables (Tables 5 and 6) with water volumes reported in units of million gallons per day (mgd) are presented below. Note that the proposed project would not vary demands based on water year type.
Table 5: Water Demand Based on Project Phasing (mgd)
Demand of
Proposed Project
(mgd)
2025a 2030 2035 2040 2045
Potable Demand 0 0.083 0.152 0.152 0.152
Non-potable
Demand
0 0.064 0.097 0.097 0.097
Total Demand 0 0.147 0.249 0.249 0.249
NOTES:
a Assumes first operational year is 2027.
SOURCE: SFPUC District Scale Non-Potable Water Calculator, Version 9.1
Table 6: Potential Potable Water Savings for the Proposed Project Demand of Proposed
Project (mgd)
2025a 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Demand (mgd) 0 0.147 0.249 0.249 0.249
Non-potable Demands Met
By Non-potable Supply
(mgd)
0 0.060 0.097 0.097 0.097
Potential Potable Water
Savings as Percentage of
Total Demand
- 41% 39% 39% 39%
NOTES:
a Assumes first operational year is 2027.
SOURCE: SFPUC District Scale Non-Potable Water Calculator, Version 9.1
NON-POTABLE WATER CALCULATOR
Project Summary Sheet Stonestown Galleria
Project Contact: Julia Adams
510-326-2355
[email protected]
Total Gross Square Footage: 5,337,863 Estimated Final Site/Building Permit Issuance Date: 1/1/2024
1. Demand and Supply Summary
Demand Met by Non-Potable Supply (gallons/year): 35,317,038 39% of total Total Annual Water Demand (gallons/year): 90,739,800
6-Month Compliance Periods
January - June July - December
Potable Make-Up Allocation (gallons/period): 1,449,949 1,457,933
2. Building Information Summary
Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Project Total
Project / Building Name: Stonestown Galleria Stonestown Galleria Project Address: 3251 20th Avenue 3251 20th Avenue
San Francisco, CA
Assessor's Block & Lot No. / APN:
7295-004, 005, 035, 037, 038 & 7296, 006-007 -
Date of Completion: 2032 -
Building Type: Mixres MIPS MIPS -
Total Building Size (GSF): 5,337,863 0 0 5,337,863
Total Lot Size (ft2): 1,432,940 0 0 1,432,940
Number of Residential Units: 3,080 0 0 3,080
Impervious Surface Above Grade (ft2): 664,590 0 0 664,590 Impervious Surface Below Grade (ft2): 436,030 0 0 436,030 Irrigated Landscaped Area (ft2): 242,870 0 0 242,870
3. Summary of Non-Potable Demands and Supplies for the Project Non-Potable Supply Estimates
Annual Supply (gpy)
Onsite Alternate Water Sources Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Project Total Graywater: 0 0 0 0
Blackwater: 45,320,552 0 0 45,320,552 (includes GW)
Condensate: 842,159 0 0 842,159
Rainwater/Stormwater: 0 0 0 0
Other Supplies: 0 0 0 0
TOTAL: 46,162,711 0 0 46,162,711
Non-Potable Demand Estimates
Annual Demand (gpy)
Project Non-Potable Demands Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Project Total Toilets/Urinals: 16,598,909 0 0 16,598,909
Drain Trap Priming: 0 0 0 0
Irrigation: 2,284,409 0 0 2,284,409
Clothes Washing: 10,195,505 0 0 10,195,505
HVAC/Cooling: 6,238,215 0 0 6,238,215
Other Demands: 0 0 0 0
TOTAL: 35,317,038 0 0 35,317,038
9/13/2022 7. Project Summary Page 1 of 2
Attachment 1
4. Project Phasing
SITE 1: Stonestown Galleria SITE 2: SITE 3: Project Total 15-Year Timeframe
(enter dates on Tab 1)
NP Offset
Supplies
(gpy)
Selected NP
Demand
(gpy)
NP Offset
Supplies
(gpy)
Selected NP
Demand
(gpy)
NP Offset
Supplies
(gpy)
Selected NP
Demand
(gpy)
NP Offset
Supplies
(gpy)
Selected NP
Demand
(gpy)
Re-Used Non-
Potable Supplies
(gpy)
2032 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2033 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2034 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2035 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2036 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2037 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2038 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2039 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2040 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2041 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2042 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2043 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2044 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2045 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 2046 46,162,711 35,317,038 0 0 0 0 46,162,711 35,317,038 35,317,038 This offset analysis assumes the full year of supplies is available to offset non-potable demands. Some scenarios may require storage to allow excess supplies from one part of the year to be used in later months with available demand.
0 5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 Gallons per Year
Year
Onsite Supplies and Non-Potable Demand Over 15-Year Timeframe Total Onsite Supply Total Non-potable Demand
0 500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December Gallons Per Month
Selected Onsite Supply vs. Selected Non-Potable Demand (All Sites On-Line) Total Onsite Supply Total Non-potable Demand
9/13/2022 7. Project Summary Page 2 of 2