Hetch Hetchy
Power
Updated
Integrated
Resource Plan
November 28, 2023
2 Today’s Presentation
1. Background
2. Approach to Plan Update
3. Analysis & Findings
4. Next Steps
Background
4 Key Terms
• Portfolio – c ollection of generation resources used
to serve electricity demand.
• Scenario – v ariations on a future state or objective that may influence the resources included in a
portfolio.
• Sensitivity Analysis - an analysis that involves
changing one assumption to understand its
influence on the portfolio.
• Hydrology - i s the scientific study of the
movement, distribution and management of water
on earth, including the water cycle, water
resources, and drainage basin sustainability.
5 What is an Integrated
Resource Plan (IRP)?
• An IRP is an energy planning tool to support
ac
hieving policy goals and meeting
regulatory requirements.
• An IRP evaluates electricity supply and
dem
and and identifies energy resource
options that can deliver reliable and
affordable energy to customers.
• Hetch Hetchy Power is required by
C
ommission policy and state law to develop
an IRP every five years.
• Hetch Hetchy Power’s IRP must be
s
ubmitted to the California Energy
Commission by April 30, 2024.
6 • Hetch Hetchy Power’s first IRP was adopted by
the C
ommission in 2018 and focused on:
• Optimizing the value of the Hetch Hetchy
hy
droelectric system to electricity customers.
• Analyzing the economic tradeoffs between different
hy
droelectric system capital improvements.
• The 2023 IRP update prioritizes:
• Ensuring sufficient power supply will be available to s
erve a growing customer base.
• Identifying renewable resource options to maintain
r
eliable, affordable,100% renewable energy service.
Hetch Hetchy Power’s 2018 IRP
and 2023 IRP Update
Approach to
Plan Update
8 Hetch Hetchy Water & Power System
(Current State)
In-City Solar Resources
8 MW
9 Demand Forecast Scenarios, 2024-2045
Four demand scenarios
• Base Case is a “1-in 2” forecast
t
hat has a 50% chance of
occurring
• Other scenarios forecast
c
ustomer demand under higher-
than-normal temperatures:
• 1-i n -5 Scenario (temperature
forecast has 20% chance of
occurring)
• 1-i n -10 Scenario (temperature
forecast that has 10% chance
of occurring)
• 1-i
n -20 Scenario (temperature
forecast that has 5% chance of
occurring)
10 Hydroelectric Generation Scenarios
2024-2045
Three hydrologic scenarios:
• Average “normal”
• Average “wet”
• Average “dry”
11 Renewable Energy Procurement Scenarios
Scenarios A, B, C and D represent different new renewable energy portfolio additions intended to bring resource diversity while cost-effectively meeting Hetch Hetchy Power’s electricity portfolio goals and requirements. These are intended to be illustrative and will inform future planning & procurement.
A B C D
So. California Solar 100 1/ 1/2033 X X
Nor. California Solar 100 1/1/2033 X X
Onshore Wind 25 1/1/2035 X
Offshore Wind (Morro Bay) 25 1/1/2035 X
Offshore Wind (Humbolt) 25 1/1/2035 X
Geothermal 25 1/1/2035 X X X X
Renewable Resources Scenarios Delivery
Start Date
Installed
Capacity (MW)
Analysis &
Findings
13 New Long-term Power Supply Need Starting in 2033
Average annual
Hetch Hetchy
Hydro generation
14 Additional Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)-eligible Resources Needed for Compliance
Note: “Hydroelectric Generation” includes Holm and Moccasin Powerhouses; “RPS-eligible Generation” includes Kirkwood Powerhouse
15 Monthly Energy Portfolio Balance in 2035
(Base Case)
16 Monthly Energy Portfolio Balance in 2035
(Renewable Scenario A)
17 Procurement of New Short- and Long-term Renewable
Resources Will Reduce Market Exposure
ANNUAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE, 2024-2045
18 Key Findings
• Retail sales projected to grow at an average rate of 5% per year t
hrough 2033.
• Customer load growth combined with hydroelectric variability will r
equire Hetch Hetchy Power to procure approximately 150
megawatts of new renewable energy supplies starting in 2033. • Adding new long-t erm renewable energy supplies to the portfolio would reduce Hetch Hetchy Power’s energy market exposure risk while maintaining its compliance with state and local regulatory and policy requirements.
• This energy supply need could be met with a combination of di
fferent renewable energy resources to support portfolio diversity.
• Hetch Hetchy Power also needs to procure Resource Adequacy capaci
ty located in a California ISO Local Capacity Area. Staff should evaluate options for acquiring this supply in 2024. 19 Hetch Hetchy Water & Power System
(Future State, e.g., 2035)
New Renewable Resources
≈ 150 MW
≈ 240 MW
In-City Solar Resources
8+ MW
Next Steps
21 Next Steps
• Commission adoption of Updated IRP
bef
ore end of CY 2023
• Staff will finalize report and prepare for
s
ubmission to the California Energy
Commission in 2024.
• Staff will continue to monitor Hetch Hetchy
P
ower’s load growth and conduct further
analysis to identify an optimal mix of cost-
effective and commercially available
renewable energy resources.
Thank You
DEPARTMENT
Power Enterprise
AGENDA NO.
11 MEETING DATE
November 28, 2023
Last updated: 05.03.2023
AGENDA ITEM
Public Utilities Commission
City and County of San Francisco
Calendar: Regular Calendar
Contract/Project Manager: Julia Olguin
Approve an Updated Integrated Resource Plan for Hetch Hetchy Power and authorize submission to the California Energy Commission
Summary of
Proposed
Commission Action:
Approve Hetch Hetchy Power’s Updated Integrated Resource Plan (October 2023); and authorize the General Manager , or the General Manager’s designee, to submit the Updated I ntegrated Resource Plan to the California Energy Commission prior to April 30, 2024.
Background: Public Utilities Code Section 9621 requires all of California’s large publicly owned utilities, including Hetch Hetchy Power, to have a process for updating its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP or Plan) at least every five years. E nergy Commission guidelines implementing Section 9621 also require each publicly owned utility to file an updated IRP that includes the necessary supporting documentation to identify how each utility will meet California’s environmental and policy goals and explain s the methodologies used in developing the updated IRP.
Hetch Hetchy Power develop ed its first IRP in 2017, which was adopted by the Commission in Resolution No. 18-0187 in November 2018. Hetch Hetchy Power submitted the adopted IRP to the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission ) on February 27, 2019. The California Energy Commission found that Hetch Hetchy Power's IRP met the requirements of Section 9621 and other California energy goals on June 26, 2019. S taff has prepared an U pdated IRP to account for new demand forecasts and related changes since 2018 and to satisfy the Commission’s policy of updating the Hetch Hetchy Power IRP at least every five years. The Updated IRP must be approved by the Commission and then submitted to the Energy Commission by April 30, 2024.
The goal of an Integrated Resource Plan is to assi st electric utilities in analyzing and assessing how best to meet their future energy demands at least cost, while ensuring reliable service and accomplishing other public purpose goals such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.
Agenda Title: Approve an Updated Integrated Resource Plan for Hetch Hetchy Power and authorize submission to the California Energy Commission Commission Meeting Date: November 28, 2023
The Updated Integrated Resource Plan forecasts Hetch Hetchy Power’s retail electric demand and hydroelectric operations to 2045 under four demand and three generation s cenarios. The demand forecasts vary based on assumed weather conditions influencing demand. The Base Case, a 1-in-2 scenario, is a load forecast that has a 50 percent chance of occurring . The other three scenarios forecast demand under high-temperature conditions.
The generation scenarios feature three hydrologic conditions resulting in different projections of annual Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric energy generation from 2024 to 2045: (1) an “Average Wet” scenario ; (2) an “Average Dry” scenario; and (3) an “Average Normalized” scenario. Each of the generation forecast scenarios are analyzed against the four Hetch Hetchy Power retail demand forecast scenarios to identify Hetch Hetchy Power’s net energy balance (i.e., generation supply shortfall or excess) across the planning period.
Based on this analysis, Hetch Hetchy Power will need additional energy supply to serve future demand on a regular basis starting in calendar year 2033, due to load growth and hydrological variability. To meet this energy supply need Staff analyzed alternative renewable energy supply scenarios. Each of these scenarios included a different mixture of solar, wind, and/or geothermal energy supplies intended to deliver approximately 425-700 gigawatt-hours per year in additional energy supply from renewable ener gy resources that have complimentary seasonal production characteristics over the 2033-2040 timeframe.
The Updated IRP recommend s the addition of up to 150 megawatts of new renewable power supply to augment the Hetch Hetchy Power energy portfolio starting in calendar year 2033. Adding new renewable energy supplies to
Hetch Hetchy Power’s portfolio would help ensure the program can continue to reliably serve its customers and reduce its energy market exposure while maintaining compliance with state and local regulatory and policy requirements.
Due to the length of time before new long-term energy supplies are projected to be needed by Hetch Hetchy Power , as well as market and technological changes that are likely to affect the best resource options to procure, the Plan does not identify a preferred renewable energy procurement scenario. Staff will continue to analyze Hetch Hetchy Po wer’s future demand requirements and energy supply options and will evaluate whether another IRP update is appropriate before the next deadline in 2028.
Attached to this Agenda Item are the following documents that will be submitted to the Energy Commission by April 30, 2024:
• Hetch Hetchy Power’s Updated Integrated Resource Plan This document summarizes the IRP methodology, analysis, and results, and identifies how the updated Plan addresses environmental and policy goals.
Agenda Title: Approve an Updated Integrated Resource Plan for Hetch Hetchy Power and authorize submission to the California Energy Commission Commission Meeting Date: November 28, 2023
• Attachment A: Energy Commission’s Standardized Tables The Energy Commission’s Guidelines require the submission of four tables identifying Hetch Hetchy Power’s forecasted energy supply and demand balance, Resource Adequacy capacity needs, greenhouse gas emissions, and Renewable Portfolio Standard compliance. • Attachment B: Hetch Hetchy Power RPS Procurement Plan The Energy Commission’s Guidelines require Hetch Hetchy Power to submit a copy of its current Renewable Portfolio Standard Procurement Plan. The Commission approved this plan in Resolution No. 12-0217.
Environmental
Review:
This action does not constitute a “project” under California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines section 15378 because the Updated Integrated Resource Plan does not involve commitment to any specific project which may result in a potentially significant physical impact on the environment.
Result of Inaction: Public Utilities Code Section 9621 requires that all of California’s large publicly owned utilities, including Hetch Hetchy Power, have a process for updating its Integrated Resource Plan at least every five years and submitting it to the C alifornia Energy C ommission. Hetch Hetchy Power’s Integrated Resource Plan was last adopted by the Commission in November 2018 and submitted to the California Energy Commission in 2019. Hetch Hetchy Power has prepared a draft Updated IRP for the Commission’s approval. Hetch Hetchy Power will be out of compliance with state law if the Commission does not approve the Updated IRP for submittal to the California Energy Commission. The approved Updated IRP must be submitted to the California Energy Commission by April 30, 2024.
Recommendation: Staff recommends that the Commission adopt the attached resolution approving Hetch Hetchy Power’s Updated Integrated Resource Plan and authorize the General Manager, or the General Manager’s designee, to submit it to the California Energy Commission no later than April 30, 2024.
Attachments: 1. Draft Hetch Hetchy Power Updated Integrated Resource Plan
2. Attachment A: California Energy Commission Standardized Tables
3. Attachment B: Hetch Hetchy Power ’s adopted R enewable Portfolio Standard Procurement Plan
PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION
City and County of San Francisco
RESOLUTION NO.
WHEREAS, Public Utilities Code Section 9621, requires that all of California’s large publicly owned electric utilities, including the SFPUC’s Hetch Hetchy Power program, prepare an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and have a plan to update the IRP at least once every five years; and
WHEREAS, The goal of an IRP is to assist electric utilities to analyze and assess how best to meet their future energy demands at least cost, while ensuring reliable service and accomplishing other public purpose goals such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants; and
WHEREAS, In November 2018 this Commission adopted Resolution No. 18-0187, approving Hetch Hetchy Power’s IRP, and committing to update the IRP at least once every five years, consistent with the requirements of Public Utilities Code Section 9621; and
WHEREAS, Staff has prepared, consistent with Public Utilities Code Section 9621 and California Energy Commission guidelines, an Updated IRP for Hetch Hetchy Power; and
WHEREAS, The Updated IRP forecasts Hetch Hetchy Power’s retail electric demand and hydroelectric operations under four retail sales forecasts and three hydroelectric generation scenarios based on “normal”, “dry” and “wet” hydrologic conditions over a 2024 to 2045 planning horizon and analyzes these supply and demand forecasts to identify Hetch Hetchy Power’s net energy balance (i.e., generation supply shortfall or excess) across the planning period; and
WHEREAS, Hetch Hetchy Power is projected to need additional energy supply to serve future demand beginning in calendar 2033, due to customer load growth and hydrological variability; and
WHEREAS, Th e Updated IRP analyzed the addition of up to 150 megawatts of new renewable power supply to augment the Hetch Hetchy Power energy portfolio starting in calendar year 2033. Adding renewable energy power purchases to the portfolio would reduce Hetch Hetchy Power’s energy market exposure risk while maintaining its compl iance with state and local regulatory and policy requirements; and
WHEREAS, The Updated IRP projects that between 2024 and 2045 Hetch Hetchy Power can, with the addition of new renewable power purchases to supplement hydroelectric generation, accomplish the following: continue to provide 100% clean and renewable electric energy to serve all of its customer needs; exceed the greenhouse gas-reduction goals set for Hetch Hetchy Power by the California Air Resources Board ; meet its compliance obl igation under California’s Renewable Portfolio Standards program; and provide reliable electric service to meet its customer needs; and
WHEREAS, Hetch Hetchy Power developed an Updated IRP, the results of which were presented to the Commission at its November 28, 2023, meeting; and
WHEREAS, This action does not constitute a “project” under California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines section 15378 because the Updated Integrated Resource Plan does not involve commitment to any specific project which may result in a potentially significant physical impact on the environment; now, therefore, be it
RESOLVED, That the Commission approves Hetch Hetchy Power’s Updated IRP in substantially the form of the attached Draft San Francisco Public Utilities Commission Hetch Hetchy Power Updated Integrated Resource Plan ; and be it
FURTHER RESOLVED, That the Commission authorizes the General Manager , or the General Manager’s desi gnee, to file the Approved San Francisco Public Utilities Commission Hetch Hetchy Power Updated Integrated Resource Plan with the California Energy Commission on or before April 30, 2024, with any non- material changes or modifications to the exhibits, as may be acceptable to the General Manager.
I hereby certify that the foregoing resolution was adopted by the Public Utilities Commission at its meeting of November 28, 2023.
Secretary, Public Utilities Commission
DRAFT
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
Hetch Hetchy Power
Updated Integrated Resource Plan
Approved by the SFPUC Commission - MMMM DD, YYYY
By Resolution ##-####
October 2023
2 Table of Contents
1.0 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 4
2.0 Background ............................................................................................................................. 5
2.1 About the SFPUC .............................................................................................................................. 5
2.2 Hetch Hetchy Power ........................................................................................................................ 6
2.2.1 Hydroelectric System ........................................................................................................ 6
2.2.2 Solar Energy and Other Generation Sources .................................................................... 8
2.3 Hetch Hetchy Power’s IRP Process .................................................................................................. 8
3.0 Resource Procurement Plan ..................................................................................................... 9
3.1 Planning Horizon .............................................................................................................................. 9
3.2 Demand Forecast ............................................................................................................................. 9
3.3 Scenarios and Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................................................. 11
3.4 RPS Planning Requirements ........................................................................................................... 20
3.5 Energy Efficiency and Demand Response ...................................................................................... 22
3.5.1 Commercial, Industrial & Agricultural Energy Efficiency Programs ................................ 22
3.5.2 Residential Energy Efficiency Programs .......................................................................... 22
3.6 Transportation Electrification ........................................................................................................ 23
3.7 Energy Storage ............................................................................................................................... 24
4.0 System and Local Reliability ................................................................................................... 26
4.1 System Resource Adequacy ........................................................................................................... 26
4.2 Local Resource Adequacy .............................................................................................................. 29
4.3 Flexible Resource Adequacy .......................................................................................................... 30
4.4 Ability to Meet Peak Demand ........................................................................................................ 30
5.0 Greenhouse Gas Emissions .................................................................................................... 31
6.0 Retail Rates ........................................................................................................................... 33
7.0 Transmission and Distribution Systems .................................................................................. 34
7.1 Bulk Transmission .......................................................................................................................... 34
7.2 Local Distribution ........................................................................................................................... 35
8.0 Loc
alized Air Pollutants and Disadvantaged Communities ..................................................... 35
8.1 Programs to Support Affordability in Disadvantaged Communities.............................................. 36 Appendices ........................................................................................................................................ 37 Appendix A: Standardized Tables ....................................................................................................... 37 Appendix B: Hetch Hetchy Power Renewables Portfolio Standard Procurement Plan ......................... 37
4 1.0 Executive Summary
This is the Updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP or Updated IRP) of Hetch Hetchy Power, the local publicly owned electric utility (POU) operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC), which is a department of the City and County of San Francisco.1 The SFPUC is governed by a five-member commission.
California Energy Commission (CEC) Guidelines require each POU to submit an Updated IRP as well as supporting documentation that shows how the POU plans to meet California’s environmental and policy requirements and goals and explains the methodologies used in developing the Updated IRP. 2 This IRP updates the “ San Francisco Public Utilities Commission Hetch Hetchy Power Integrated Resource Plan Filing Hetch Hetchy Power 2018 IRP Filing” (2018 IRP). In this document, Hetch Hetchy Power summarizes updates to its 20 -year forecasts of retail sales and power supply and the analysis we’ve performed to identify options for maintaining a clean, reliable and affordable power supply for Hetch Hetchy customers.
The Updated IRP will serve as a roadmap to guide San Francisco’s decisions about power resources needed to meet future electricity demand for Hetch Hetchy Power customers. This long-range energy resource plan will assist SFPUC in continuing to provide affordable, reliable electricity to its Hetch Hetchy Power customers. This Updated IRP is a crucial element for success in a constantly changing business and regulatory environment and will better position Hetch Hetchy Power to meet the challenge of cost-effectively and sustainably serving its customers into the future.
Integrated resource planning is a process undertaken by a utility to determine future electricity resource requirements necessary for meeting forecasted demand under various conditions, with an adequate reserve to provide for system reliability and integrity. Key steps include:
• Forecasting future electrical loads;
• Identifying potential electricity resource options to meet future load; and • Determining an optimal resource plan within the framework of key parameters and metrics that meet Hetch Hetchy Power’s goals, federal, state and local regulatory requirements, and the overall objectives of the Updated IRP planning process.
The conditions and circumstances in which utilities must make decisions about how to meet customers’ future electric energy needs are ever -changing. Decisions are influenced by the utility’s existing generation portfolio, the costs and availability of different resource alternatives, and by changes in regulations, commodity prices, technology advancements, and economic conditions at large.
1 The SFPUC also operates CleanPowerSF, San Francisco’s Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) program, and provides water and waste-water services.
2 CEC Guidelines, Ch. 2, Section E.2., pp. 5-6.
5 Hetch Hetchy Power’s 2018 IRP focused on several scenarios for investment and operation in the Hetchy Hetchy hydroelectric system, examining the economic tradeoffs between making all necessary investment in the hydroelectric system to maintain generation levels and alternatives involving more selective investment. The 2018 IRP ultimately did not identify a preferred scenario but concluded that its results would be used as inputs to the SFPUC’s broader organizational needs taking into account the interaction between the SFPUC’s water and power operations.
This Updated IRP forecasts Hetch Hetchy Power’s retail electric demand and hydroelectric generation through the 2045 planning horizon using several demand and generation scenarios.
Based on this IRP’s analysis, Hetch Hetchy Power will need additional energy supply to serve our retail sales demand starting in calendar year 2033, due to load growth and hydrological variability.
Hetch Hetchy Power could acquire this new energy supply through short- or long- term energy market purchases, such as a new renewable energy power purchase agreement.
The Updated IRP analyzed the addition of up to 150 megawatts of new renewable power supply to augment the Hetch Hetchy Power energy portfolio starting in calendar year 2033, supplemented with short-term renewable energy market purchases to cover demand in dry years. Adding new long - term renewable energy supplies to the portfolio would reduce Hetch Hetchy Power’s energy market exposure risk while maintaining its compliance with state and local regulatory and policy requirements.
In addition to identifying a need to procure new supplies of renewable energy, this Updated IRP identifies the need to procure long-term sources of Local Resource Adequacy capacity from within a California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Local Capacity Area to support Hetch Hetchy Power’s compliance with CAISO Reliability Requirements. Local Resource Adequacy requirements are expected to increase as Hetch Hetchy Power’s retail sales grow over the planning horizon. This Updated IRP recommends that Hetch Hetchy Power conduct additional analysis in 2024 to identify resource options for meeting its projected Local Resource Adequacy capacity obligations over the coming decade.
2.0 Background
2.1 About the SFPUC
The SFPUC, a department of the City and County of San Francisco (the City ), provides water and wastewater services to San Francisco, along with power to San Francisco’s municipal departments and commercial and residential customers within the C ity. The SFPUC’s Power Enterprise operates two electric utility services, Hetch Hetchy Power , San Francisco's locally owned public utility, and CleanPowerSF, San Francisco’s community choice aggregation program. 3 3 This IRP is focused solely on Hetch Hetchy Power. The SFPUC prepares a separate IRP for CleanPowerSF, which is subject to different requirements and regulatory review from the California Public Utilities Commission.
6 The Hetch Hetchy Water and Power System and the CleanPowerSF program are part of San Francisco’s clean energy backbone . Today, Hetch Hetchy Power’s energy portfolio has a zero GHG emissions profile, it does not produce any harmful radioactive byproducts, or leave behind any waste.
The majority of the power generated by Hetch Hetchy Power comes from three hydroelectric facilities located in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These three facilities are operated to meet SFPUC’s water needs first, with power then generated from the system used to meet Hetch Hetchy Power’s retail customer demand. Hetch Hetchy Power is unique among most utilities in California in that it possesses more generation than it has demand. Currently, it has roughly 380 megawatts (MW) of hydroelectric generation capacity for a system with a peak load of roughly 150 MW.
The overall goal of Hetch Hetchy Power’s IRP is to maintain highly reliable electric service for its customers at affordable costs, while taking into consideration environmental impacts and system risks to ensure that near -term decisions made are robust. Just as importantly, Hetch Hetchy Power wants to retain flexibility in its resource portfolio so that the utility is well positioned to respond to future regulations and technologies. In developing this IRP, Hetch Hetchy Power has undergone an analytical process to evaluate available resource alternatives and to establish a resource procurement plan that satisfies the SFPUC’s resource planning goals.
2.2 Hetch Hetchy Power
Hetch Hetchy Power’s customer base for electric energy primarily consists of city government agencies and tenants on city property (including the Port of San Francisco and San Francisco International Airport). Hetch Hetchy Power also serves some retail customers including those at the Treasure and Yerba Buena Islands, Candlestick/Hunter’s Point, and Mission Rock redevelopment projects.
Hetch Hetchy Power receives its energy from three powerhouses located along the Hetch Hetchy system (Holm, Kirkwood, and Moccasin) with a combined capacity of 381 MW, 4 MW of small -scale hydroelectric generation at Moccasin Low-head, along with 8 MW of in-city solar, 250,000 megawatt- hours (MWh)/year assuming normal hydrologic conditions
4 while Hetch Hetchy Power’s retail sales
in 2022 were 926,348 MWh. Surplus Hetch Hetchy Power generation is sold to CAISO wholesale energy markets, CleanPowerSF, and other qualifying third parties.
2.2.1 Hydroelectric System
The Hetch Hetchy Power System is composed of three hydroelectric powerhouses (Table 2-1):
• Moccasin Powerhouse and a nearby small in -line hydroelectric unit rely on gravity -driven water flowing downhill from the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir; • Kirkwood Powerhouse, like Moccasin, is also dependent on gravity- driven water flowing downhill from the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir; and
• Holm Powerhouse relies on gravity-driven water flowing downhill from Cherry Lake.
4 As modeled in the Updated IRP, Hetch Hetchy Power’s average hydroelectric generation is 1, 250,000 MWh/year.
7 TABLE 2-1. SFPUC HYDRO GENERATION
Figure 2-1 is an illustration of the Hetch Hetchy Water and Power System. This system is operated on a water first basis, with power produced principally as a byproduct of moving water through the system. The water is delivered through a gravity -based system and via aqueduct to the Bay Area. It can store as much as 117 billion gallons for the Hetch Hetchy Regional Water System.
The Hetch Hetchy Water and Power System comprises of three reservoirs, Hetch Hetchy, Lake Eleonor, and Cherry Lake. Water flows through to the Holm Powerhouse and Kirkwood Powerhouse and then to the Moccasin Powerhouse. From there, the water reaches the San Joaquin Pipelines, which deliver the water for local distribution to retail water customers in San Francisco and wholesale through 26 water agencies in Alameda, Santa Clara, and San Mateo counties. The System provides water to approximately 2.7 million customers.
FIGURE 2-1. HETCH HETCHY POWER SYSTEM
8 2.2.2 Solar Energy and Other Generation Sources
In addition to the hydro generation, approximately 8 MW of rooftop solar projects, including the Sunset Reservoir Solar project (5 MW), supports Hetch Hetchy Power electric service within the City.
Finally, biogas generation facilities that capture energy produced from wastewater decomposition at the SFPUC’s wastewater treatment plants, generate about 2 MW of renewable energy.
2.3 Hetch Hetchy Power’s IRP Process
Integrated resource planning is a formal process undertaken by a utility to determine future resource requirements necessary for meeting forecasted annual peak and energy demand, with an adequate reserve to provide for system reliability and integrity. This IRP is also used to assess Hetch Hetchy Power environmental and policy requirements and goals.
Through the evaluation of supply and demand alternatives, the IRP process can be used to develop strategies for procurement decisions. The best resource plans create a reasonable balance between fiscal responsibility and environmental stewardship, and present reasonable risks and associated costs to customers. All plans selected must maintain generation reliability at or above industry - standard levels.
FIGURE 2-2. FIVE-STEP IRP DEVELOPMENT APPROACH
9 Following the process outlined on Figure 2-2, the Hetch Hetchy Power IRP was developed and evaluated primarily on energy supply sufficiency and environmental and economic performance.
Hetch Hetchy Power IRP utilizes economic analyses and methodologies to a ssess various scenarios and sensitivities to arrive at an economically optimal plan. Through the evaluation of supply and demand alternatives, the Hetch Hetchy Power IRP has developed guidelines for procurement decisions in a manner that satisfies core pri nciples of system reliability, fiscal responsibility, and environmental stewardship and provides a reasonable degree of flexibility to respond to future economic, regulatory and technological changes.
3.0 Resource Procurement Plan
3.1 Planning Horizon
A fundamental purpose of the IRP is to identify how Hetch Hetchy Power will meet its 2030 GHG targets. The CEC Guidelines specify that the minimum planning horizon for a POU’s IRP cover through at least 2030 and encourages but does not require POUs to address the post -2030 period. 5 The
planning horizon for Hetch Hetchy Power’s Updated IRP is 2024 -2045 to support Hetch Hetchy Power’s alignment with California’s 100% zero carbon goal.6
3.2 Demand Forecast
This IRP utilizes Hetch Hetchy Power’s long -term load forecast submitted to the CEC for its most recent Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) .7 However, because the planning horizon for this Updated IRP extends beyond the IEPR forecasting window (to 2034), this forecast assumes a modest 1% increase in load and customer count from 2035 to 2045.
This IRP analyzes energy resource options for four load forecast scenarios. Scenario 1, a 1 -in-2 scenario, is the Base Case load forecast that has a 50 percent chance of occurring. The other three scenarios forecast distribution area peak demand under high -temperature conditions. These cases, referred to as 1-in-5, 1-in-10, and 1-in-20, forecast peak demand under temperature conditions that have a 20, 10, and 5 percent chance of occurring, respectively. The load forecast scenarios are illustrated below in Figure 3-1.
5 CEC Guidelines, Ch. 2, Section A, p. 4
6 Public Utilities Code § 454.53(a).
7 Hetch Hetchy Power’s (City and County of San Francisco) 2023 IEPR load forecast is available at https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=250844&DocumentContentId=85743 [accessed on September 22, 2023]
10 FIGURE 3-1. HETCH HETCHY DEMAND FORECAST SCENARIOS, 2024-2045
As can be seen in Figure 3-1, Hetch Hetchy Power is forecasting a significant growth in electric energy demand over the planning horizon, with the 1- in-2 Load Scenario growing by an average of five percent per year over the 2024- 2034 period . The load forecast takes into consideration variou s factors including real estate development trends in our service territory, and major load changes among key customers including the San Francisco International Airport, and the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA). Airport loads are expected to grow 3.6 percent annually over the planning horizon due to load growth from new terminals and associated facilities, and other projects from the Airport’s master plan. The SFMTA’s growth is due to a combination of factors including the new Central Subway extension and compliance with the Innovative Clean Transit Rule, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) regulations that require public transit agencies to shift their bus fleets to either all electric or fuel cell zero emission buses.
Hetch Hetchy Power’s forecasted load growth also includes non -municipal electric load. This load growth is associated with large redevelopment projects and related demand in the southeastern area of San Francisco, as well as “infill” projects throughout the city, particularly new affordable housing projects. Current redevelopment -area customers include Hunters Point, Treasure Island/Yerba Buena Island, Transbay Transit Center, Alice Griffith, Candlestick, Pier 70, Mission Rock, University of California San Francisco, and HOPE SF (Potrero and Sunnydale).
Due to the growth of residential units being built in San Francisco, and served by Hetch Hetchy Power, a modest residential customer growth factor of four percent per year was used. Due to uncertainty regarding redevelopment efforts beyond 2034, the load forecast in this IRP assumes a one percent annual increase in load and customer count for the 2034-2045 period.
11 3.3 Scenarios and Sensitivity Analysis
This IRP analyzed the four demand forecast scenarios noted above and three hydroelectric generation scenarios, illustrated in Figure 3-2.
Figure 3-2. HETCH HETCHY DEMAND AND HYDROELECTRIC GENERATION
SCENARIOS
The IRP assumes the continued operation of all of Hetch Hetchy Power’s hydroelectric generation through 2045 . As these units currently constitute 99% or more of Hetch Hetchy Power’s annual generation, Hetch Hetchy Power’s in-city solar and biomass generation were not separately modeled, but are included in the Supporting Tables.
The hydroelectric generation forecast includes three
hydrologic scenarios: an “Average Normal”, an “Average Wet”, and an “Average Dry” scenario. These scenarios were developed using historical system performance over 20 years.
As can be seen in Figure 3-3, over the next several years Hetch Hetchy Power is forecasted to be long in generation and a net seller of power. Hetch Hetchy Power’s generation is forecasted to be sufficient to meet the B ase Case load forecast supplemented by short-term market purchases until 2033.
However, as Hetch Hetchy Power’s retail sales are forecasted to grow over t he next decade it will need to identify additional sources of energy to meet demand on a regular basis beginning in 2033.
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
Dry Generation Scenario Normal Generation Scenario Wet Generation Scenario 1-in-2 Load Scenario 1-in-5 Load Scenario 1-in-10 Load Scenario 1-in-20 Load Scenario
Megawatt-Hours
12 FIGURE 3-3. MARKET SALES AND PURCHSAES UNDER BASE CASE LOAD FORECAST
AND NORMAL HYDROELECTRIC GENERATION
To address this forecasted energy need, the IRP analyzed adding new renewable power suppl ies to augment the Hetch Hetchy Power energy portfolio on a long -term basis beginning in calendar year 2033. Our analysis assumed this renewable power supply would be procured principally through long-term power purchase agreement s (PPAs) supplemented with short -term renewable energy purchases to cover demand in dry years when the long- term PPA(s) and hydroelectric generation may be insufficient. This is illustrated in Figure 3-4.
FIGURE 3-4. ANNUAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE, 2024-2045
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Contract/Market Sales Contract/Market Purchases Net Position Megawatt-hours
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000Megawatt-hours
Normal Hydro Generation Long-Term PPA(s) Short-Term Contract(s) 1-in-2 Load Scenario 1-in-5 Load Scenario 1-in-10 Load Scenario
13 The IRP’s evaluation of Hetch Hetchy Power’ energy portfolio examined different renewable energy resource types, including solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, and geothermal. Figure 3-5 below shows monthly generation profiles (percent of annual energy produced by month) for the renewable energy resources analyzed.
FIGURE 3-5. MONTHLY GENERATION PROFILE BY RENEWABLE RESOURCE
Figure 3-5 illustrates that there is seasonal variation in renewable resources. For example, the black line represents Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric generation, showing that the majority of the hydroelectric energy is produced during the months of February through July. The figure also shows that geothermal resources are steady through the year with fall and winter months being a bit more productive than spring and summer months. S olar resources produce significantly more energy during the summer months when days are longer. The figure also illustrates the different seasonal energy production characteristics of onshore and offshore wind, with onshore wind generating significantly more energy in the summer months than the winter months and offshore wind generating more consistently across the seasons.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% of Annual Generation
Hetch Hetchy Scal Solar Ncal Solar Onshore Wind
Wind Offshore 1 Wind Offshore 2 Geothermal
14 FIGURE 3-6. RENEWABLE RESOURCE PROJECTED LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY
Figure 3.6 summarizes the indicative renewable resource cost of energy used in this analysis . These cost estimates are based on publicly available renewable energy project cost data. 8 As the figure illustrates the cost of energy produced by different renewable energy resource types varies, d riven by the capital intensity of the technology and the expected energy productivity of the renewable resource, among other factors.
To address Hetch Hetchy Power’s forecasted energy need, t he IRP analysis examined a combination of new renewable resources that would support portfolio diversification while meeting Hetch Hetchy Power’s projected load growth and environmental objectives. Specifically, the IRP analyzed four renewable resource scenarios, involving the addition of new renewable energy supplies to the Hetch Hetchy Power portfolio beginning in 2033. These are summarized in Table 3-1.
TABLE 3-1. HETCH HETCHY POWER NEW RENEWABLE RESOURCE SCENARIOS Renewable Resources
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Delivery
Start Date
Scenarios (“X” = Resource Included)
A B C D
So. California Solar 100 1/1/2033 X X
Nor. California Solar 100 1/1/2033 X X
Onshore Wind 25 1/1/2035 X
Offshore Wind 1 (Morro Bay) 25 1/1/2035 X
Offshore Wind 2 (Humboldt) 25 1/1/2035 X
Geothermal 25-50 1/1/2035 X X X X
8 Renewable resource Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) are nominal $/MWh and based on Lazard’s LCOE+ 2023 Report, available at: https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf [accessed on October 20, 2023]. The LCOEs used here are on the high end of Lazard’s subsidized cost range for each technology type.
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
S.Cal Solar N.Cal Solar Onshore Wind OffShore Wind GeoThermal $ per Megawatt-hour
15 The combination of resources in each scenario is intended to deliver approximately 425- 700 gigawatt-hours per year in additional energy supply from renewable energy resources that have complimentary seasonal production characteristics. Scenarios A, B and C include 25 MW of geothermal combined with different combinations of solar and wind while Scenario D includes 50 MW of geothermal and 100 MW of solar. All of the technologies modeled, with the exception of offshore wind, are commercially available in California today. It is anticipated that offshore wind will become commercially available in California in the coming decade.
Using calendar year 2035 as an example, the IRP modeled the monthly energy balance in the Hetch Hetchy Power portfolio using the Base Case load forecast, normal hydroelectric generation and each of the renewable resource scenarios noted above.
FIGURE 3-7. ENERGY PORTFORLIO IN 2035 WITHOUT NEW RENEWABLE RESOURCES
Figure 3-7 above shows the forecasted Hetch Hetchy Power portfolio before adding new renewable resources. The forecasted Hetch Hetchy generation (represented by the black bars) is representative of a “normal” generation year, with about 1,240,000 megawatt -hours of energy produced. Hetch Hetchy Power’s line loss-adjusted retail sales in 2035 is forecasted to be approximately 1,600,000 megawatt-hours, or about 360,000 megawatt-hours more than the forecasted portfolio supply. The area of the bars below the red line (loss-adjusted monthly demand) is used to serve retail customer demand while the area above the redline represents excess energy that may be sold to a third party or into the CAISO energy market. The orange bar segments represent energy that must be purchased in the market to serve customer retail sales (i.e., an open position in the energy portfolio).
16 FIGURE 3-8. ENERGY PORTFORLIO IN 2035, RENEWABLE RESOURCE SCENARIO A
The results of Scenario A are presented in Figure 3-8 above for calendar year 2035. The addition of 100 MW of Southern California Solar, 25 MW of Offshore Wind (Humboldt) and 25 MW of Geothermal would generate approximately 630 ,000 megawatt -hours per year and would help close much of Hetch Hetchy Power’s open energy p osition (assuming normal hydroelectric generation) in the summer, fall and winter months. In total, the Hetch Hetchy Power portfolio under Scenario A would be projected to generate approximately 1,8 70,000 megawatt-hours to supply 1,600,000 megawatt - hours in projected line loss -adjusted demand in 2035. The portfolio is forecast to have an open position in some months (principally January, August, September, November and December), which could be met through short-term market purchases. The portfolio would also have excess generation in the spring months that could be sold into the wholesale electricity market to help offset the cost of these purchases.
17 FIGURE 3-9. ENERGY PORTFORLIO IN 2035, RENEWABLE RESOURCE SCENARIO B
The results of Scenario B are presented in Figure 3-9. The addition of 100 MW of Northern California Solar, 25 MW of Onshore Wind, and 25 MW of Geothermal would generate approximately 493,000 megawatt-hours per year and would reduce Hetch Hetchy Power’s open energy position (assuming normal hydroelectric generation) in the summer, fall and winter months, but only close it in the month of July. Scenario B generates less energy than Scenario A due to the lower productivity of solar in northern versus southern California and onshore versus offshore wind. In total, Scenario B would be projected to generate approximately 1, 730,000 megawatt-hours to supply 1,600,000 megawatt - hours in projected line loss-adjusted demand in 2035. Figure 3-9 shows that the portfolio is forecast to continue have an open position in most months, although it is greatly reduced . Like the other scenarios, some or all of this remaining open position could be met through short -term market purchases. The portfolio would also have excess generation in the spring months that could be sold into the wholesale electricity market to help offset the cost of these purchases.
18 FIGURE 3-10. ENERGY PORTFORLIO IN 2035, RENEWABLE RESOURCE SCENARIO C
The results of Scenario C are presented in Figure 3-10. The addition of 100 MW of Northern California Solar, 25 MW of Offshore Wind located in Morro Bay, and 25 MW of Geothermal would generate approximately 535,000 megawatt -hours per year and would reduce Hetch Hetchy Power’s open energy position (assuming normal hydroelectric generation) in the summer, fall and winter months, but only totally close it from March - July. Scenario B generates less energy than Scenario A due to the lower productivity of solar in northern versus southern California, but more than Scenario B due to the higher productivity of offshore versus onshore wind. In total, Scenario C would be projected to generate approximately 1,7 73,000 me gawatt-hours to supply 1,600,000 megawatt -hours in projected line loss -adjusted demand in 2035. Figure 3- 10 shows that the portfolio is forecast to continue have an open position in most months, although it is greatly reduced, especially for October and February. Like Scenario A, some or all of this remaining open position could be met through short-term market purchases. The portfolio would also have excess generation in the spring months that could be sold into the wholesale electricity market to help offset the cost of these purchases.
19 FIGURE 3-11. ENERGY PORTFORLIO IN 2035, RENEWABLE RESOURCE SCENARIO D
The results of Scenario D are presented in Figure 3-11. The addition of 100 MW of southern California solar and 50 MW of geothermal would generate approximately 725 ,000 megawatt-hours per year and would greatly reduce Hetch Hetchy Power’s open energy position (assuming normal hydroelectric generation) in all months, with only small open positions projected to remain in September, November and January. Scenario D generates the most energy of the scenarios analyzed due to the higher productivity of southern California solar and geothermal resources for each megawatt of capacity installed . In total, Scenario D would be projecte d to generate approximately 1,964,000 megawatt -hours to supply 1,600,000 megawatt -hours in projected line loss -adjusted demand in 2035. Figure 3 -11 shows that the consistent productivity of the geothermal resource across the months makes the most significant contribution to Hetch Hetchy Power’s forecasted energy requirements . Like the other scenarios , the relatively small remaining open position in Scenario D could be met through short -term market purchases. The steadier generating characteristics of geothermal coupled with its higher overall energy productivity means that Scenario D would also generate the most excess energy in a normal hydroelectric year . Also like the other scenarios, that excess energy could be sold into the wholesale electricity market to help offset the cost of the purchases.
A summary of key results for each of the new renewable resource scenarios compared to a “do nothing” scenario in 2035 are presented in Table 3-2 below. The table identifies the amount of annual energy that would be generated by each of the 150 MW renewable resource scenarios analyzed. The results show that for the projected loss-adjusted demand, each of the new renewable resource scenarios would reduce Hetch Hetchy Power’s short -term market purchase s compared to the “do
20 nothing” scenario. It also shows that each of the new renewable resource scenarios would increase short-term market sales, relative to the “do nothing” scenario.
TABLE 3-2. SUMMARY OF NEW RENEWABLE RESOURCE SCENARIO RESULTS FOR 2035 Scenario
Line-Loss
Adjusted Demand
(MWh)
New Renewable
Energy Procured
(MWh/year)
Short-term
Market
Purchases
(MWh)
Short-term
Market Sales
(MWh)
Portfolio Net
Market Cost
($Million)
Do Nothing
1,607,346
- 490,135 127,576 45.3
A 630,874 105,737 374,052 40.5
B 492,679 194,248 324,367 42.7
C 534,803 159,677 331,921 44.0
D 725,339 55,124 417,904 37.6
The resulting Portfolio Net Market Cost column represents the net cost of spot market energy purchases and sales to serve the Hetch Hetchy Power energy portfolio with the assumed energy resources. Each of the scenarios include modelled Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric generation, which for 2035 was forecasted to generate 1,238,815 megawatt-hours. In the “Do Nothing” scenario, the Hetch Hetchy Power portfolio would incur approximately $45.3 million in net costs to serve customer energy demand (includes both spot market purchases and sales of excess Hetch Hetchy generation).
By comparison, each of the new renewable energy scenarios are projected to reduce the portfolio net cost, with Scenarios D and A reducing costs the most. This is the result of forecasted new renewable energy costs being comparable to, or less costly than the spot market , and reducing Hetch Hetchy Power’s open position for energy during the late summer, fall and winter months , when forecasted spot power prices are high.
3.4 RPS Planning Requirements
California’s RPS program requires POUs to supply 60% of their annual retail sales with RPS -eligible renewable resources by December 31 2030 and sets interim targets of 44 percent by December 31, 2024 and 52 percent by December 31, 2027.
9 Hetch Hetchy Power also owns the resources that meet more than 65% of its RPS procurement requirements through 2030. 10 The alternative RPS procurement requirements of Public Utilities Code section 399.30(j) applies to Hetch Hetchy because it receives more than 67% of its electricity from its qualifying Hetch Hetchy generation , which is in- state owned hydroelectric generation that does not meet the requirements of Public Resources Code
9 Public Utilities Code § 399.30(c)(2).
10 See Public Utilities Code § 399.13(b).
21 section 2574.11 Section 399.39(j) requires Hetch Hetchy Power to meet its demand wi th generation from either Hetch Hetchy system or with RPS-eligible supplies.12
Since SFPUC adopted Hetch Hetchy Power’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Procurement Plan through Resolution 12-0217, SFPUC has met its requirement of supplying 100% of its demand, on an annual basis, with generation from either Hetch Hetchy system or with RPS-eligible supplies.13
This Updated IRP provides a roadmap for Hetch Hetchy Power to continue to meet its RPS compliance obligations by providing 100% of its annual retail electricity demands from its Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric generation and RPS-eligible energy products.
TABLE 3-2. HETCH HETCHY POWER RPS PROCUREMENT OUTLOOK (SELECTED YEARS)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Retail Sales Forecast 1,053,300 1,288,923 1,492,321 1,568,603 1,651,875
Total Existing Generation
Hydroelectric Generation14 892,109 934,348 842,394 571,197 895,566 RPS-eligible Generation 430,245 449,666 406,379 278,741 431,370 Total Generation 1,322,354 1,384,014 1,248,773 849,938 1,326,936
Net Results
(Retail Sales – Total Generation)
269,054 95,091 (243,548) (718,665) (324,939)
RPS-eligible Generation Target - - (243,548) (718,665) (324,939)
Table 3-2 summarizes Hetch Hetchy Power’s RPS procurement needs for selected years over the IRP’s planning horizon. Hetch Hetchy will exceed the mandated RPS requirements for three remaining compliance periods in this decade.
15 Although hydroelectric generation forecasts are
uncertain, the IRP shows that additional RPS -eligible renewable procurement will be required to maintain Hetch Hetchy Power’s RPS compliance requirements, especially in years with below normal
11 “Qualifying hydroelectric generation” includes all of the generation from the Holm, Kirkwood, and Moccasin Powerhouses except the Moccasin low-head (LH) generating unit which is RPS-eligible under Public Resources Code 25741. The calculation of Hetch Hetchy Power receiving 67% of its electric supply from its qualifying hydroelectric generation is determined at the start of each multi-year compliance period set by the CEC based on the average of the previous twenty years of Hetch Hetchy qualifying hydro generation, once eligibility is established, it remains in effect until the start of the subsequent compliance period when Hetch Hetchy Power must re-qualify. Hetch Hetchy Power anticipates qualifying through 2030. 12 Portfolio Content Category 1 (PCC 1) is renewable energy that is procured at the same time as the REC (hence bundled) from an in- state California resource or resource that can directly deliver the renewable energy to California.
13 The RPS Plan is attached as Appendix B.
14 Hydroelectric Generation includes generation from the Holm and Moccasin Powerhouses. Generation from the Kirkwood Powerhouse is reported in the RPS-eligible generation line. 15 January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2024, inclusive; January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, inclusive; January 1, 2028, to December 31, 2030, inclusive. Public Utilities Code § 399.30(b)(4-6).
22 hydroelectric generation (like 2040 in the forecast presented above). The new renewabl e resource scenarios modeled in this Updated IRP would ensure that Hetch Hetchy Power meets its RPS compliance obligations in all years of the planning horizon for this IRP with the exception of 2040 and 2041, when low modelled hydroelectric generation wou ld require some supplemental short - term renewable energy purchases.
3.5 Energy Efficiency and Demand Response
Hetch Hetchy Power has an annual budget of approximately $2 million for the development of distributed energy resources (DER) projects at locations throughout San Francisco including implementation of energy efficiency, electrification, and rooftop solar and battery storage projects.
3.5.1 Commercial, Industrial & Agricultural Energy Efficiency Programs Hetch Hetchy Power's energy efficiency programs are generally tailored to each customer (almost all of which are other City departments), because most of these customers are large and have varied property characteristics. These programs include:
• General Fund Program: This program provides complete retrofit services and customized incentives to targeted municipal customers. The program focuses on City agencies that are funded primarily through local tax receipts, fees, and federal/state -funded programs. These customers are considered hard-to-reach (due to limited access to capital and engineering, as well as insufficient price signals).
• Civic Center Sustainability District: Through a partnership with the Clinton Global Initiative, this program demonstrates green, renewable and energy efficient technologies as a national model for sustainability in historic districts. For energy efficiency projects, the program provides free energy audits, design, construction management, construction services, and full funding to buildings in the City’s Civic Center historic district. • Energy Benchmarking Program: San Francisco requires owners of non- residential buildings over 10,000 square feet to annually benchmark and disclose the energy performance of their buildings. In FY 21-22, Power Enterprise released its tenth annual report benchmarking the energy performance of San Francisco’s municipal buildings. • Upgrade for Savings: Hetch Hetchy Power offers customized cash incentives and technical support to help customers make significant upgrades to energy-efficient equipment, systems, and operational practices.
• Blueprint for Savings: This new construction energy efficiency program offers design assistance and cash payments to building owners and design teams planning to const ruct highly energy efficient buildings 50,000 square feet or larger.
3.5.2 Residential Energy Efficiency Programs
Hetch Hetchy Power primarily serves municipal loads. Hetch Hetchy Power provides distribution service to the former military installations at Treasure Island and Hunters Point, both of which are in the process of being redeveloped to residential/commercial uses. Additional energy efficiency activities for this new residential use are limited as these new units are being built to the latest code and energy efficiency standards. New programs are under development to serve these customers.
23 Since the inception of these programs, they have resulted in energy efficiency savings of over 50,000 MWh of electricity (about five percent of current retail sales) and 2 million therms of natural gas use each year. In addition to these efficiency savings, Hetch Hetchy Power has installed ap proximately
3.2 MW of roof- top solar at customer sites. The energy savings and peak load reduction assoc iated with existing programs and completed measures are reflected in Hetch Hetchy Power’s load forecast.
Energy efficiency savings reflected in Hetch Hetchy Power’s load forecast is consistent with estimates of achievable energy efficiency developed in Hetch Hetchy Power’s report to the CEC required under Public Utilities Code section 9505(b).
Hetch Hetchy Power is not currently offering a demand response program , but may consider such programs in the future.16
3.6 Transportation Electrification
The Updated IRP’s load forecast accounts for currently anticipated growth in Hetch Hetchy Power’s demand due to transportation electrification.
Hetch Hetchy Power provides 100% renewable and GHG -free electric energy to San Francisco’s Municipal Transportation Agency. SFMTA operates the nation’s largest fleet of electric public transit including approximately 278 electric trolley buses, 200 light-rail vehicles and 40 cable cars. SFMTA’s electric transportation related energy usage is approximately 65,000 MWh/year. 17 In February 2022,
SF completed its Battery Electric Bus Facilities Master Plan, which presented the framework and actions for transitioning SFMTA’s six bus yards and fleets to accommodate a 100% battery- electric bus operation by 2035.
SFMTA is also leading “ The Building Progress Program,” which is a $2+ billion multi -year capital program, including planning, maintenance campaigns and major modernization projects, to modernize and rebuild transportation facilities owned and operated by t he SFMTA. In 2018, the SFMTA Board of Directors approved a resolution committing to transitioning to an all -electric bus fleet. In 2021, and pursuant to the City’s Climate Action Plan and California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) Innovative Clean Transit regulation (ICT regulation), the SFMTA Board of Directors adopted the Zero Emission Bus Rollout Plan to achieve 100% zero emission fleet by 2040. The Building Progress Program’s core goals are to: modernize SFMTA facilities in order to meet the needs of everyone who travels in San Francisco; improve the transportation system’s resiliency to climate change and seismic events and make the SFMTA a better neighbor in the parts of the city that currently host SFMTA facilities. The Building Progress Program – Electrification Program implements elements of the SFMTA 2017 Facilities Framework and is anticipated to be implemented
16 CEC Guidelines, Ch.2, Section F, 3.c., p. 9.
17 Hetch Hetchy Power is exploring the use of a green tariff offering for transportation-related energy usage.
24 from 2018 to 2034 as well as the recommendations in the 2022 Zero Emission Facility and Fleet Transition Plan – Battery-Electric Bus (BEB) Implementation Facility Master Plan.18
The SFMTA will r eceive a Federal Transit Administration Bus and Bus Facilities grant for Battery Electric Bus (BEB) chargers to be designed and installed at Woods Bus Facility (+ 12 more BEB chargers) and at Islais Creek Bus Facility (6 BEB chargers). The project will improve service reliability, state of good repair, and air quality for residents living in and around San Francisco.
Hetch Hetchy Power also provides electric energy for several other CARB classified transportation uses, including on- shore power for some ships docked at the Port of San Francisco that would otherwise be powered by the ship’s diesel generators.
19 In addition, Hetch Hetchy Power’s new
incentive program, EV Charge SF, assists developers financ e EV charging infrastructure in new construction projects. Hetch Hetchy Power also serves Electric Vehicle (EV) charging stations located at City-owned parking facilities and municipal buildings that use approximately 858 MWh/year.20
In Hetch Hetchy Power’s recent rates study and adoption, a standalone EV charging rate was created for residential or commercial customers who want to have a dedicated meter for their EV charging.
At the time of the rate study, no customers were eligible for this rate, but Hetch Hetchy Power will gather and analyze the data as customers become eligible over the coming years.
Hetch Hetchy Power’s adopted electrical rates to support the electric vehicle grid integration strategies it established. Hetch Hetchy Power splits its existing tiered residential rate to a gas -and- electric and an all- electric rate schedule. The all- electric schedule has wider/larger tiers and customers with EVs should be able to charge more cost effectively than before. “Hetch Hetchy Power Premium” surc harge allows customers to opt -in for energy that meets the requirements for the State’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard program. In this way, Hetch Hetchy Power ensures that its customers can access this incentive, which can help offset their costs from installin g and operating all-electric transportation.
3.7 Energy Storage
Public Utilities Code, Chapter 7.7 (commencing with Public Utilities Code Section 2835), enacted as Assembly Bill (AB) 2514 required California’s retail power providers to evaluate the potential to procure viable and cost -effective energy storage systems. 21 In response to AB 2514, the SFPUC determined in Resolution No. 14-0147 that it had no near -term need for energy storage services apart from the potential use of energy storage to ful fill Local Resource Adequacy Capacity requirements, which was not cost-effective in 2014. The SFPUC also decided to continue to evaluate
18 https://www.sfmta.com/projects/battery-electric-bus-program and https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-
documents/2022/07/sfmta_rollout_plan_final_2022.pdf
19 CARB Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS).
20 Hetch Hetchy Power also has eleven residential customers on its EV charging rate (REV-1). 21 Public Utilities Code § 2835 et seq.
25 energy storage as a utility-scale procurement option going forward and to identify pilot energy storage projects.
Since the SFPUC’s adoption of Resolution No. 14- 0147, Hetch Hetchy Power has begun developing small-scale energy storage demonstration projects in San Francisco for local energy supply resiliency efforts and to maximize use of on- site solar energ y production. Hetch Hetchy Power now has one active solar plus battery system installed and operational. A second project is going into construction in early 2024 and a third project in the design phase.
The cost effectiveness of utility- scale energy storage has been bolstered by recent trends in California’s power markets, including significant increases Resource Adequacy capacity prices 22 and
the increasing price volatility in CAISO energy markets . Increasing occurrences of negative pricing due to overgeneration in the CAISO has resulted in increased economic curtailment of as-available renewable resources. Figure 3- 12 below illustrates recent trends in wind and solar resource curtailment in the CAISO, showing that the amount of curtailment of wind and solar resources in the CAISO has significantly increased each year, from 187,000 MWh in 2015 to 1,432,660 MWh in 2022.
Through April 30, 2023, the total curtailment of solar and wind year was already 1,566,228 MWh, with over 672,000 MWh of curtailment of solar alone in April 2023.
FIGURE 3-12. WIND AND SOLAR CURTAILMENT BY MONTH, JAN 2015 – APRIL 2023
Source: CAISO energy production and curtailment data (May 2023) Overgeneration and negative pricing in the CAISO energy market has also required changes to the scheduling of Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric generation in recent years especially during the months of
22 RA capacity resources that garnered $3.63 kW-month in 2019 have risen to prices as high as the mid-$40 kW-month for summer 2023. See CalCCA’s report on California’s Resource Adequacy market at: CalCCA- Stack-Analysis-2023-2026-updated-6_23_23.pdf (cal-cca.org) [accessed on November 1, 2023]
26 March, April, and May , which coincide with spring runoff and increasing solar generation on the CAISO system. Utility scale energy storage could increase utilization of Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric generation during the se periods, allowing energy that might be generated into a negative price (increasing Hetch Hetchy Power’s costs) or otherwise reduced or not generated at all to be generated and stored and then discharged during more valuable hours of the day. Hetch Hetchy Power plans to conduct further analysis of energy storage development opportunities and cost-effectiveness in 2024 and will include the results of this analysis in subsequent updates to its IRP.
4.0 System and Local Reliability
Resource Adequacy (RA) plays an important role in the California market in terms of maintaining system reliability. The RA program is designed to meet reliability requirements by requiring load - serving entities, including POUs, to procure sufficient RA capacity resources to meet their forecasted peak demand plus a reserve or a buffer to cover extraordinary levels of demand or outages that may reduce available generation at certain times.
Hetch Hetchy Power currently possesses more generation than it has demand. Currently, it has 380 nameplate megawatts (MW) of hydroelectric generation capacity for a system with a peak load of roughly 150 MW. However, as detailed above, Hetch Hetchy Power is forecast ing its customer demand to increase over the planning horizon, which will require additional generation capacity to continue to meet its peak demand and 15 percent planning reserve margin.
The RA program currently features three capacity requirement types: System or “generic”, “Local” and “Flexible” RA capacity. Each of these is addressed below.
4.1 System Resource Adequacy
Overall, Hetch Hetchy Power is required to meet a System RA requirement of 15 percent above its forecasted monthly peak demand. 23 The System RA requirement ensures that Hetch Hetchy Power and the California electric system has sufficient electric generating capacity to serve peak demand.
As a parti cipant in the CAISO electricity market Hetch Hetchy Power can provide System RA from resources located anywhere on the electric system as long as it can meet CAISO deliverability requirements to serve the monthly peak load. Hetch Hetchy Power currently has excess capacity (307 MW in most months and 239 MW in Hetch Hetchy Power’s annual peak month of September) 24 23 Peak demand is calculated based on an average peak demand, also known as a 1- in-2 peak or 50/50 load forecast, meaning that there is a 50% chance forecasted peak demand would be higher, and a 50% chance that peak demand would be lower than the adopted figure. The 15% planning reserve margin is the default value from CPUC’s adopted RA Policy Framework.
24 This figure is lower than the total 380 MW capacity of the Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric system because it is based on the amount of dependable capacity, (Net Qualifying Capacity or NQC) by the CAISO. This figure drops to 277 MW from 2028 through 2045 when the Kirkwood Powerhouse Unit #3 is removed from service for refurbishment.
33 Capacity requirements in the local capacity zones are higher because planning requirements are based on a 1-in-10 peak load rather than on a 1-in-2 peak load.
27 relative to its 2023 maximum monthly RA capacity obligation of approximately 176 MW (153 MW peak demand + 15% reserve margin). As can be seen in Figure 4 -1 below, this excess capacity can accommodate an increase in Hetch Hetchy Power re tail customer demand over the 2023- 2045 IRP planning horizon.
FIGURE 4-1. HETCH HECHY POWER’S FORECASTED ANNUAL RA REQUIREMENT AND EXISTING NET QUALIFYING CAPACITY, 2024-2045
However, beginning in 2030, Hetch Hetchy Power will require additional RA capacity to meet its system peak load and planning reserve margin in September, when the Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric system has a Net Qualifying Capacity (NQC) of 239 MW. This change can be seen clearly in Figu res 4-2 and 4-3 below.
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Megawatts
Peak Load Planning Reserve Hetch Hetchy Net Qualifying Capacity (Sept)
28 FIGURE 4-2. HETCH HECHY POWER’S FORECASTED MONTHLY RA REQUIREMENT AND EXISTING NET QUALIFYING CAPACITY, 2025
FIGURE 4-3. HETCH HECHY POWER’S FORECASTED RA REQUIREMENT AND EXISTING NET QUALIFYING CAPACITY, 2030
-
50 100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-30 Feb-30 Mar-30 Apr-30 May-30 Jun-30 Jul-30 Aug-30 Sep-30 Oct-30 Nov-30 Dec-30 Megawatts
System RA Requirement Hetch Hetchy Hydro Capacity
29 4.2 Local Resource Adequacy
California’s RA program also requires load serving entities to provide RA capacity that is located within certain “local” transmission constrained zones, such as the San Francisco Greater Bay Area. 25 This L ocal RA requirement factors in operating contingencies such as the loss of generation or transmission lines that would impact the local area’s electric reliability . These transmissi on- constrained zones, or CAISO Local Reliability Areas, are shown in Figure 4-4.
FIGU
RE 4-4. CAISO LOCAL RELIABILITY AREAS
The
CAISO assigns Hetch Hetchy Power’s Local RA requirements based on its proportionate share of the Local RA needs for the Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) transmission access charge (TAC) area.
Hetch Hetchy Power’s Local RA requirement is typically about 50% of its System RA requirement. In 2023 Hetch Hetchy Power’s Local RA requirement is 82 MW, which is expected to grow proportionately with growth in Hetch Hetchy Power’s peak load over the planning horizon.
Het
ch Hetchy Power does not currently own sufficient Local RA capacity resources within the PG&E TAC to meet this Local RA requirement. Hetch Hetchy Power has historically purchased Local RA This obligation is called Local Resource Adequacy Capacity and is determined using a formula that measures each LSE’s contribution to the CAISO’s local needs.
30 capacity resources from third parties. The procurement of new Local RA capacity resources should be prioritized in the near term to support Hetch Hetchy Power’s RA program obligations and contribute to statewide electric reliability. Procurement of standalone energy storage and/or energy storage paired with wind or solar generation could supply the Local RA capacity that Hetch Hetchy Power is projected to require over the planning horizon.
4.3 Flexible Resource Adequacy
As California adds more wind and solar resources to the electric grid to meet California’s RPS targets, additional flexible capacity will be needed to meet fluctuations in wind and solar generation and maintain the reliability of the grid. As a participant in the CAISO, Hetch Hetchy Power is required to provide Flexible RA capacity based on its contributions to the CAISO’s flexible capacity needs. The CAISO determines each participating LSE’s Flexible RA obligation based on the their customers' demand requirements and the flexibility of the generation resources they schedule in the CAISO system.26
Hetch Hetchy Power receives its monthly Flexible RA obligation from the CAISO each year. Currently, Hetch Hetchy Power does not have a generation asset that provides Flexible RA, but it procures Flexible RA from the market. Like Local RA, the procurement of new Flexible RA capacity resources should be prioritized in the near term to support Hetch Hetchy Power’s RA program obligations and contribute to statewide electric reliability. Procurement of energy storage resources located in a Local Capacity Area could supply Hetch Hetchy Power with both the Local and Flexible RA capacity that it is projected to require over the planning horizon.
4.4 Ability to Meet Peak Demand
While California’s RPS requirements mandate that an increasing portion of California’s energy needs come from renewable resources, this requirement does not necessarily ensure that new renewable resources coming online are matching the demand of California’s electric grid, particularly given the variability of such renewable resources as wind and solar.
This is not an issue, currently, for Hetch Hetchy Power whose resource mix contains a minimal amount of variable renewable energy resources. Solar represents less than 1% of Hetch Hetchy Power’s generation, today. Add itionally, the remaining 99% of Hetch Hetchy Power generation is hydroelectric energy that is typically available to meet peak demand . However, as detailed above, Hetch Hetchy Power’s demand is foreca sted to grow over this IRP’s planning horizon requiring additional renewable generation and possibly energy storage capacity to reliably serve customer load and contribute to statewide electric reliability . This is especially true for months when Hetch Hetchy hydroelectric generation may not be available to serve the forecasted load growth over the planning horizon.
26 This obligation is called the Flexibility Resourc e Adequacy Capacity (FRAC) and is determined using a formula that measures each LSE’s contribution to the CAISO’s flexibility needs . The FRAC is calculated on a monthly basis using the maximum change in the 1-minute net load data over a 3-hour period plus 3.5 percent of the peak load for the CAISO system. LSEs are then allocated a share of the total FRAC requirement based upon their contribution from load and renewables.
31 The renewable energy procurement scenarios analyzed in Section 3.0 identify how different combinations of new renewable energy resources would contribute to Hetch Hetchy Power’s monthly energy requirements. The analysis conducted for this IRP update found that Hetch Hetchy Power will need to procure approximately 150 MW or 425,000-700,000 megawatt-hours per year of additional renewables to meet forecasted load growth over the planning horizon. Figure 4 -5 below illustrates how the addition of new renewable resources under Scenario A (100 MW of solar, 25 MW of offshore wind and 25 MW of geothermal) combined with 75 MW of battery storage would significantly increase Hetch Hetchy Power’s RA capacity relative to its forecasted annual RA requirement and support its ability to meet peak demand.
FIGURE 4-5. HETCH HECHY POWER’S FORECASTED ANNUAL RA REQUIREMENT AND NET
QUALIFYING CAPACITY WITH NEW RENEWABLE RESOURCES (SCENARIO A)
5.0 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
A goal of this IRP update is to provide a roadmap that Hetch Hetchy Power can use to c ontinue to reliably serve its customer s with 100% renewable and/or GHG- free electric energy well into the future. Fulfilling this goal will also help Hetch Hetchy Power meet its state RPS requirements and achieve the GHG-reduction targets set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB).
100
150
200
250
300
350
2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045 Megawatts
Planning Reserve
Peak Load
Net Qualifying Capacity (Hetchy Hydro + Scenario A + 75 MW Battery)
32 In 2022, Senate Bill (SB) 1020 created new policy goals for zero carbon and renewable energy. 27 Specifically, SB 1020 set the following targets for zero carbon and renewable electricity used to serve all end-use customers in California: 90% by December 31, 2035, 95% by December 31, 2040, 100% by December 31, 2045. 28 Under this IRP, Hetch Hetchy Power plans to continue to provide 100% zero-GHG renewable energy to its customers throughout the 2045 planning period.
In its 2022 Scoping Plan Update, CARB identified GHG reduction targets for each sector of the economy as well as suggested measures to achieve these reductions. For California’s electric sector, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) recommended a GHG emissions target of 38 million metric tons (MMT) by 2030.
29 The CPUC subsequently adopted both a 38 MMT GHG and a 30 MMT GHG benchmark by 2030 for the CPUC’s 2022 IRPs. 30 CARB’s 2022 Scoping Plan aligns with CPUC’s 2030 targets and adopted a target range of 30 to 38 MMT. 31 CARB assigned an individual target to each load serving entity. Hetch Hetchy Power’s share of this GHG target for 2030 is 12,000 to 15,000 metric tons, which is about 0.041% of the statewide total. 32
TABLE 5-1. HETCH HETCHY POWER’S FORECASTED 2030 GHG EMISSIONS COMPARED TO CARB’S 2030 TARGETS33
MILLION METRIC TONS/Year
IRP Forecast
0 CARB 2030 GHG Target
(low-end of range)
12,000
CARB 2030 GHG Target
(high-end of range)
15,000
Hetch Hetchy Power plans to continue to provide clean and renewable electricity supplies with minimal GHG emissions across the IRP’s planning horizon. As detailed in the sections above, while Hetch Hetchy Power’s hydroelectric supplies are forecasted to be sufficient to serve its projected load growth over the coming years, it will need to procure additional renewable energy supplies as soon as a 2033 to maintain its high environmental standards and to meet California’s goals through 2045..
27 Clean Energy, Jobs, and Affordability Act of 2022 (Senate Bill 1020, Laird, Chapter 361, Statutes of 2022) (Public Utilities Code § 454.53(a).)
28 Id.
29 CPUC Decision (D.) 22-02-004 “Decision Adopting 2021 Preferred System Plan,” pp. 105-107. 30 CPUC Rulemaking 20-05-003, “Administrative Law Judge’s Ruling Finalizing Load Forecasts and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Benchmarks for 2022 Integrated Resource Plan Filings,” (June 15, 2022), p. 15 (¶ 2).
https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M485/K625/485625915.PDF 31 CARB “Senate Bill 350 Integrated Resource Planning Electricity Sector Gree nhouse Gas Planning Targets:
2023 Update”, September 2023, p. 2.https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-09/sb350-final-report- 2023.pdf https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-09/sb350-final-report-2023.pdf 32 CARB “Senate Bill 350 Integrated Resource Planning Electricity Sector Greenhouse Gas Planning Targets:
2023 Update”, September 2023, p. 4.
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-09/sb350-final-report-2023.pdf 33 Id. at p. 4.
33 6.0 Retail Rates
Hetch Hetchy Power’s electric rates are governed by San Francisco Charter Section 8B.125 which requires the SFPUC to exercise prudent financial stewardship of SFPUC assets by establishing “rates, fees and charges at levels sufficient to improve or maintain financial condition and bond ratings at or above levels equivalent to highly rated utilities of each enterprise under its jurisdiction, meet requirements and covenants under all bond resolutions and indentures and provide sufficient resources for t he continued financial health (including appropriate reserves), operation, maintenance and repair of each enterprise, consistent with good utility practice.”
To meet these requirements most effectively, the SFPUC utilizes financial policies that foster financial sustainability and prudent stewardship of resources. The primary purpose of these policies is to ensure that each enterprise under the SFPUC’s oversight retains sufficient funds for future infrastructure needs, replacement of aging facilities, bond reserves, and various operating expenses in a manner that mitigates unexpected rate changes. These financial policies include:
• Debt Service Coverage Policy: requires each SFPUC enterprise to adopt budgets, rates, and financial plans that generate net revenues such that Indenture Coverage shall equal a minimum of 1.35x annual debt service and Current Coverage shall equal a minimum of
1.10x annual debt service;
• Capital Financing Policy: requires that a minimum ranging between 15 percent and 30 percent of each enterprise’s capital budget be revenue -funded (or “pay- as-you-go” funded) over a 10-year planning period.
• Fund Balance Reserve Policy: requires that Hetch Hetchy Power’s Fund Balance Reserve maintain a minimum amount of 90 days or 25 percent of annual Operations and Maintenance Expenses (including programmatic projects, excluding debt service and revenue -funded capital) over a 10-year planning period.
• Ratepayer Assurance Policy: reinforces SFPUC’s commitment to developing rates and charges that are affordable, predictable, easy to understand, based on cost of service, and that generate sufficient revenue for full cost recovery.
San Francisco Charter Section 8B.125 further requires the SFPUC to conduct an independent cost of service and rates study at least once every five years for Hetch Hetchy Power. The most recent study was completed in 2022 and the SFPUC adopted new cost of service ba sed electricity rates for Hetch Hetchy Power that were implemented beginning in Fiscal Year 2022 -23. The 2022 Hetch Hetchy Power Rates Study was completed before this Updated IRP was conducted, so the rates study did not take into account or project the cost of service impacts of the IRP scenarios analyzed in this update.
However, the SFPUC maintains rolling, 10-year financial plans for Hetch Hetchy Power.
This IRP does not forecast any significant additional renewable procurement to be required for Hetch Hetchy Power until 2033 , when project ed load growth begins to require new renewable energy resources to supplement existing resources on a regular basis . Therefore, it is prudent to continue
34 to monitor projected load growth, Hetch Hetchy Power net energy and capacity needs, and renewable energy costs and incorporate refinements to the analysis performed in this IRP update in future iterations of Hetch Hetchy Power financial plans and cost of service studies.
7.0 Transmission and Distribution Systems
7.1 Bulk Transmission
Electricity generated by the Hetch Hetchy system is transmitted through SFPUC-owned and operated transmission lines, consisting of approximately 110 miles of 115 kilovolt (kV) and 50 miles of 230 kV transmission lines and four substations.
An overview of Hetch Hetchy Power’s transmission topology is shown below:
FIGURE 7-1. HETCH HETCHY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM IN 2023
Het
ch Hetchy Power’s transmission system faces minimal transmission congestion/constraints to serve Hetch Hetchy Power load because of the high load carrying capacity of Hetch Hetchy Power’s transmission lines.
Hetch Hetchy Power’s transmission facilities connect into the CAI SO-operated transmission system and PG&E’s distribution system to deliver power to most Hetch Hetchy Power customers located in San Francisco and the Peninsula. San Francisco is working diligently with PG&E to create or upgrade interconnection points at transmission level voltages to serve San Francisco loads independent of the PG&E system. As a result, San Francisco has recently completed the interconnection of the Bay
35 Corridor Transmission and Distribution (BCTD) Project that interconnects at 230 kV thro ugh a distribution substation that will deliver energy to customers at 12,470 volts. This will provide an alternative energy source for the distribution grid, alleviating the constraints of having a single energy provider and improving reliability for the overall distribution network system.
The SFPUC is evaluating options that could reduce congestion on our transmission system and facilitate the interconnection and/or transmittal of energy, including renewable generation, in the east-west corridor between the City of Oakdale and Newark.
7.2 Local Distribution
PG&E’s distribution system serves most of the Hetch Hetchy Power’s current electric demand under a FERC -regulated Wholesale Distribution Tariff (WDT). The SFPUC participates in proceedings before both the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and FERC that effects PG&E’s rates and services; ensuring that not only Hetch Hetchy Power customers but also all of San Francisco’s residents and businesses receive reliable and reasonably priced service. Hetch Hetchy Power is also the power provider for new neighborhoods under Redevelopment, neighborhoods such as Hunters Point (“The Shipyard”) and Treasure Island. As these Redevelopment areas are completed, Hetch Hetchy Power will operate and maintain the local utility facilities that serve those end customers.
8.0 Localized Air Pollutants and Disadvantaged Communities
Hetch Hetchy Power’s generation from its Hetch Hetchy powerhouses is GHG -free and creates no localized air pollution. In most years Hetch Hetchy Power sells a significant portion of this GHG-free energy to other load serving entities.
which helps reduce GHG emissions and other pollutants that may otherwise be generated from fossil-fueled power plants.
San Francisco successfully collaborated with state energy agencies to close San Francisco’s two large in-city pollution- emitting power plants located in in the Hunters Point and Potrero areas of San Francisco. With the closure of these plants in 2006 and 2011 there are no large -scale fossil-fueled power plants located within San Francisco, and su bstantial clean -up and redevelopment of these areas is underway or being planned.
There are 12 census districts within San Francisco that are classified as disadvantaged communities with a CalEnviroScreen score with a 76th to 100th percentile ranking or lacking an overall score but with a pollution burden score in the top 25%. Seven of these are in the Hunters Point area of San Francisco, four are around the Moscone Center/South of Market Street/Civic Center area and the twelfth is located on Treasure Island. Hetch Hetchy Power is the electric utility for both the Hunters Point and Treasure Island redevelopment projects and delivers GHG -free electricity to those customers with no generation of localized air pollutants.
The SFPUC recently decided to stop the operation of the Southeast Cogeneration Plant (2.0 MW) located in the Bayview/Hunters Point area of San Francisco. For the past two decades, this plant took
36 methane (also known as biogas) generated as a by- product of the SFPUC’s processing of sew age biosolids waste and use d it as a fuel to generate electric power. In combusting methane and converting it to electric energy, the Southeast Cogeneration Plant reduced the release of GHG emissions into the atmosphere, but also created localized (non -GHG) emissions, primarily Nitrogen Oxide (NOx).34
As a part of a $2.7 billion project upgrading a major portion of the Southeast Wastewater Treatment Plant, the SFPUC will be replacing the Southeast Cogeneration Plant with a new Biogas Utilization Facility, forecasted to come on-line in 2027. The SFPUC has opted to change the end use for its methane/biogas by- product to renewable natural gas (RNG) and will no longer produce electric power in the Southeast Wastewater Treatment Plant. This new Biogas Utiliza tion Facility will provide 100% beneficial use of the biogas, by treating and upgrading the biogas to natural gas quality, compressing and injecting the biogas into an existing PG&E pipeline, and then selling the biogas and marketing the energy credits (such as RINs or Low Carbon Fuel Standard) resulting in potential revenue for the SFPUC.
This change in biogas end use from electrical power to RNG will reduce on- site air emissions (such as GHGs and NOx) into the surrounding Bayview -Hunters Point neighborhood by eliminating the cogeneration facility and the combustion of biogas in Southeast Wastewater Treatment Plant. In addition, the generation of RNG is in line with the City’s sustainability policies as it displaces the use of fossil fuels and improves local air quality. RNG currently offers the highest economic and environmental value as renewable fuel for compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles.
8.1 Programs to Support Affordability in Disadvantaged Communities Hetch Hetchy Power seeks to meet and exceed the goals set by the SFPUC’s Environmental Justice policy. 35 Among its programs, t he Community Assistance Program (CAP) provides a 30% discount on electricity bills for income-qualified residential Hetch Hetchy Power customers that apply for the program. Customers may apply online at sfpuc.org/30offpower, or by calling the Customer Service Bureau. Additionally, customers may obtain a mail -in application in one of nine languages by downloading the form online or making a request for an application to be sent by mail.
Hetch Hetchy Power is about to embark on a review of its CAP offerings, and is in the beginning stages of soliciting support from consultants experienced in evaluating affordability and arrearage management. Hetch Hetchy Power intends to investigate its discount offering to determine whether it is sufficient for meetings its customers’ needs when considering affordability. Efforts are expected to conclude in late 2024.
34 The CEC classifies t hese types of plants as having zero -GHG emissions under the CEC’s GHG Emissions Performance Standards (SB 1368) requirements.
35 In Resolution 09 -0170, adopted October 13, 2009, the SFPUC “affirms and commits to the goals of environmental justice to prevent, mitigate, and lessen disproportionate environmental impacts of its activities on communities in all SFPUC service areas and to insure that public benefits are shared across all communities.”
37 Hetch Hetchy Power also offers a program called GoSolarSF which for over the last 15 years has provided incentives for Hetch Hetchy Power customers (as well as CleanPowerSF customers) to install roof-top solar. While GoSolarSF’s rebates to non-profits, businesses, and residential and low- income customers throughout San Francisco became fully subscribed in 2020, the program continues to offer rebates to low -income homeowners located in Disadvantaged Communities qualifying through the State’s Disadvantaged Community-Single Affordable Solar Home program (DAC-SASH).36
Appendices
Appendix A: Standardized Tables
Appendix B: Hetch Hetchy Power Renewables Portfolio
Standard Procurement Plan
36 For more information see: https://sfpuc.org/accounts-services/sign-up-for-savings/gosolarsf [accessed on October 31, 2023]
State of California
California Energy Commission
Standardized Reporting Tables for Public Owned Utility IRP Filing Energy Balance Table
Form CEC 110 (May 2017)
Scenario Name: Units = MWh
Yellow fill relates to an application for confidentiality.
NET ENERGY FOR LOAD CALCULATIONS 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 1 Retail sales to end-use customers 893,439 930,206 986,851 1,056,400 1,119,955 1,166,440 1,214,621 1,259,092 1,292,023 1,326,375 1,355,160 1,432,939 1,480,615 1,495,421 1,510,375 1,525,479 1,540,734 ######## ######## 1,587,420 1,603,294 ######## ######## 1,651,875 2 Other loads
3 Net energy for load
4 Retail sales to end-use customers (accounting for AAEE impacts) 2,875 2,801 2,698 2,616 2,546 2,633 2,479 2,424 2,303 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 2,064 5 Net energy for load (accounting for AAEE impacts) 896,314 933,007 989,549 1,059,016 1,122,501 1,169,073 1,217,100 1,261,516 1,294,326 1,328,439 1,357,224 1,435,003 1,482,679 1,497,485 1,512,439 1,527,543 1,542,798 1,558,205 1,573,767 1,589,484 1,605,358 1,621,391 1,637,584 1,653,939 6 Firm Sales Obligations
7 Total net energy for load (accounting for AAEE impacts) (5+6) 896,314 933,007 989,549 1,059,016 1,122,501 1,169,073 1,217,100 1,261,516 1,294,326 1,328,439 1,357,224 1,435,003 1,482,679 1,497,485 1,512,439 1,527,543 1,542,798 1,558,205 1,573,767 1,589,484 1,605,358 1,621,391 1,637,584 1,653,939 8 [Customer-side solar generation]
9 [Light Duty PEV electricity consumption/procurement requirement] 0 0 5,531 15,335 32,757 51,436 65,809 79,850 92,874 106,330 127,879 149,845 163,343 176,156 187,836 197,832 203,773 205,157 205,468 205,779 206,144 206,510 206,842 207,293 10 [Other transportation electricity consumption/procurement requirement] 65,000 65,000 65,000 74,480 74,480 80,675 86,150 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 91,010 11 [Other electrification/fuel substitution; consumption/procurement requirement]
EXISTING AND PLANNED GENERATION RESOURCES
Utility-Owned Generation Resources (not RPS-eligible):
[list resource by name] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 12a Holm Hydroelectric Plant, Units 1 & 2 Large
Hydroelectric 535,177 553,559 712,120 603,388 618,722 511,326 599,437 580,120 632,059 750,750 702,825 499,756 548,194 569,855 764,311 747,684 522,988 508,458 386,398 402,308 730,805 724,670 605,824 605,824 12b Moccasin Hydroelectric Plant, Units 1 & 2 Large
Hydroelectric 294,705 305,464 340,579 288,721 295,911 244,547 286,687 277,449 302,289 359,054 336,134 239,014 262,180 272,539 365,540 357,588 250,125 243,176 184,799 192,408 349,515 346,581 289,742 289,742 12c
12d 0
12e 0
12f 0
12g 0
Long-Term Contracts (not RPS-eligible):
[list contracts by name] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 12h WAPA - Base Power Large
Hydroelectric 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 12i WAPA - Custom Power Large
Hydroelectric 14,163 14,680 15,214 15,764 16,329 16912 17512 18131 18768 19,368 19987 20605 21223 21842 22,460 23079 23697 24315 24934 25,552 26171 26789 27407 28025 12j 0
12k 0
12l 0
12m 0
12n 0
12 Total energy from existing and planned supply resources (not RPS-eligible) (sum of 12a…12n) 847,145 876,803 1,071,013 910,973 934,062 775,885 906,736 878,800 956,216 1,132,272 1,062,046 762,475 834,697 867,336 1,155,411 1,131,451 799,910 779,049 599,231 623,368 1,109,591 1,101,140 926,073 926,691 Utility-Owned RPS-eligible Generation Resources:
[list resource by plant or unit] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 13a Kirkwood Hydroelectric Plant Units 1,2, & 3 Large
Hydroelectric 390,066 438,612 495,387 420,257 430,416 355,705 417,000 403,562 439,693 522,261 488,921 347,656 381,352 396,421 531,694 520,129 363,818 353,709 268,798 279,866 508,386 504,118 421,442 421,442 13b Moccasin Low-Head Hydroelectric Plant Large
Hydroelectric 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13c Southeast Waste Water Cogeneration Plant Cogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13d In-City Solar Located on Municipal Facilities Solar PV 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 2,286 13e 0
13f 0
13g 0
13h 0
13i 0
13j 0
13k 0
13l 0
13m 0
13n 0
Long-Term Contracts (RPS-eligible):
[list contracts by name] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 13o Sunset Solar PV Solar PV 6,744 6,117 6,005 6,002 5,999 5996 5993 5990 5987 5,984 5981 5978 5975 5972 5,969 5966 5963 5960 5957 5,954 5951 5948 5945 5942 13p 0
13q 0
13r 0
13s 0
13t 0
13 Total energy from RPS-eligible resources (sum of 13a…13t) 399,096 447,015 503,678 428,545 438,701 363,987 425,279 411,838 447,966 530,531 497,188 355,920 389,613 404,679 539,949 528,381 372,067 361,955 277,041 288,106 516,623 512,352 429,673 429,670 13z Undelivered RPS energy
14 Total energy from existing and planned supply resources (12+13) 1,246,241 1,323,818 1,574,691 1,339,518 1,372,763 1,139,872 1,332,015 1,290,638 1,404,182 1,662,803 1,559,234 1,118,395 1,224,310 1,272,015 1,695,360 1,659,832 1,171,977 1,141,004 876,272 911,474 1,626,214 1,613,492 1,355,746 1,356,361
GENERIC ADDITIONS
NON-RPS ELIGIBLE RESOURCES:
[list resource by name or description] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 15a 0
15b 0
15c 0
15d 0
15e 0
15f 0
15g 0
15h 0
15i 0
15j 0
15k 0
15l 0
15m 0
15n 0
15 Total energy from generic supply resources (not RPS-eligible) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RPS-ELIGIBLE RESOURCES:
[list resource by name or description] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 16a Solar PV
16b
16c 0
16d 0
16e 0
16f 0
16g 0
16h 0
16i 0
16j 0
16k 0
16l 0
16m 0
16n 0
16 Total energy from generic RPS-eligible resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Total energy from generic supply resources (15+16) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17z Total energy from RPS-eligible short-term contracts
ENERGY FROM SHORT-TERM PURCHASES
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 18 Short term and spot market purchases:
18a Short term and spot market sales (only report sales of energy from resources already included in the EBT):
ENERGY BALANCE SUMMARY
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 19 Total energy from supply resources (14+17+17z) 1,246,241 1,323,818 1,574,691 1,339,518 1,372,763 1,139,872 1,332,015 1,290,638 1,404,182 1,662,803 1,559,234 1,118,395 1,224,310 1,272,015 1,695,360 1,659,832 1,171,977 1,141,004 876,272 911,474 1,626,214 1,613,492 1,355,746 1,356,361 19a Undelivered RPS energy (from 13z) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Net Short term and spot market purchases (18 - 18a) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 Total delivered energy (19-19a+20) 1,246,241 1,323,818 1,574,691 1,339,518 1,372,763 1,139,872 1,332,015 1,290,638 1,404,182 1,662,803 1,559,234 1,118,395 1,224,310 1,272,015 1,695,360 1,659,832 1,171,977 1,141,004 876,272 911,474 1,626,214 1,613,492 1,355,746 1,356,361 22 Total net energy for load (from 7) 896,314 933,007 989,549 1,059,016 1,122,501 1,169,073 1,217,100 1,261,516 1,294,326 1,328,439 1,357,224 1,435,003 1,482,679 1,497,485 1,512,439 1,527,543 1,542,798 1,558,205 1,573,767 1,589,484 1,605,358 1,621,391 1,637,584 1,653,939 23 Surplus/Shortfall (21-22) 349,927 390,811 585,142 280,502 250,262 (29,201) 114,915 29,122 109,856 334,364 202,010 (316,608) (258,369) (225,470) 182,921 132,289 (370,821) (417,201) (697,495) (678,010) 20,856 (7,899) (281,838) (297,578) Historical Data
State of California
California Energy Commission
Standardized Reporting Tables for Public Owned Utility IRP Filing Capacity Resource Accounting Table
Form CEC 109 (May 2017)
Scenario Name:
Yellow fill relates to an application for confidentiality.
Units = MW Data input by User are in dark green font.
PEAK LOAD CALCULATIONS 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 1 Forecast Total Peak-Hour 1-in-2 Demand 144 151 159 170 180 188 196 203 208 214 218 231 239 241 243 246 248 251 253 256 258 261 264 266 2 [Customer-side solar: nameplate capacity] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2a [Customer-side solar: peak hour output] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 [Peak load reduction due to thermal energy storage] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 [Light Duty PEV consumption in peak hour] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency Savings on Peak 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Demand Response / Interruptible Programs on Peak 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 Peak Demand (accounting for demand response and AAEE) (1-5-6) 143 150 158 169 179 187 195 202 207 213 217 230 238 240 242 245 247 250 252 255 257 260 263 265 8 Planning Reserve Margin 15% 22 23 24 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 38 39 39 40 40 9 Firm Sales Obligations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Total Peak Procurement Requirement (7+8+9) 165 173 182 195 206 215 224 232 238 245 250 265 274 276 278 282 284 288 290 293 296 299 303 305
EXISTING AND PLANNED CAPACITY SUPPLY RESOURCES
Utility-Owned Generation and Storage (not RPS-eligible): For fuel type, choose from list or enter value [list resource by name] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 11a Holm Hydroelectric Plant, Units 1 & 2 Large
Hydroelectric 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 11b Moccasin Hydroelectric Plant, Units 1 & 2 Large
Hydroelectric 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 11c
11d
11e
11f
11g
Long-Term Contracts (not RPS-eligible):
[list contracts by name] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 11h WAPA - Base Power Large
Hydroelectric 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11i WAPA - Custom Power Large
Hydroelectric 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11j
11k
11l
11m
11n
11 Total peak dependable capacity of existing and planned supply resources (not RPS-eligible) (sum of 11a…11n) 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 Utility-Owned RPS-eligible Resources:
[list resource by plant or unit] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 12a Kirkwood Hydroelectric Plant Units 1,2, & 3 Large
Hydroelectric 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 12b Moccasin Low-Head Hydroelectric Plant Large
Hydroelectric 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12c Southeast Waste Water Cogeneration Plant Cogen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12d In-City Solar Located on Municipal Facilities Solar PV 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 12e
12f
12g
12h
12i
12j
12k
12l
12m
12n
Long-Term Contracts (RPS-eligible):
[list contracts by name] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 12o Sunset Solar PV Solar PV 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 12p
12q
12r
12s
12t
12 Total peak dependable capacity of existing and planned RPS-eligible resources (sum of 12a…12t) 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 13 Total peak dependable capacity of existing and planned supply resources (11+12) 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388
GENERIC ADDITIONS
NON-RPS ELIGIBLE RESOURCES:
[list resource by name or description] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 14a
14b
14c
14d
14e
14f
14g
14h
14i
14j
14k
14l
14m
14n
14 Total peak dependable capacity of generic supply resources (not RPS- eligible) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 RPS-ELIGIBLE RESOURCES:
[list resource by name or description] Fuel type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 15a Solar PV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15b Solar PV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15c Solar PV
15d
15e
15f
15g
15h
15i
15j
15k
15l
15m
15n
15 Total peak dependable capacity of generic RPS-eligible resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Total peak dependable capacity of generic supply resources (14+15) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAPACITY BALANCE SUMMARY
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 17 Total peak procurement requirement (from line 10) 165 173 182 195 206 215 224 232 238 245 250 265 274 276 278 282 284 288 290 293 296 299 303 305 18 Total peak dependable capacity of existing and planned supply resources (from line 13) 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 388 19 Current capacity surplus (shortfall) (18-17) 223 215 206 194 182 173 164 156 150 143 138 123 114 112 110 106 104 100 98 95 92 89 85 83 20 Total peak dependable capacity of generic supply resources (from line 16) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 Planned capacity surplus/shortfall (shortfalls assumed to be met with short- term capacity purchases) (19+20) 223 215 206 194 182 173 164 156 150 143 138 123 114 112 110 106 104 100 98 95 92 89 85 83
State of California
California Energy Commission
Standardized Reporting Tables for Public Owned Utility IRP Filing RPS Procurement Table
Form CEC 112 (May 2017)
Scenario Name:
Beginning
balances Units = MWh
Start of 2022
RPS ENERGY REQUIREMENT CALCULATIONS 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 1 Annual Retail sales to end-use customers (accounting for AAEE impacts) (From EBT) 896,314 933,007 989,549 1,059,016 1,122,501 1,169,073 1,217,100 ###### 1,294,326 1,328,439 1,357,224 ###### ###### ###### 1,512,439 1,527,543 ###### 1,558,205 1,573,767 1,589,484 1,605,358 1,621,391 ###### 1,653,939 0 0 2 Green pricing program Exclusion, (may include other exclusions like self generation exclusion) 893,214 929,907 986,449 1,055,916 1,119,401 1,165,973 1,214,000 1,258,416 1,291,226 1,325,339 1,354,124 1,431,903 1,479,579 1,494,385 1,509,339 1,524,443 1,539,698 1,555,105 1,570,667 1,589,484 1,605,358 1,621,391 1,637,584 1,653,939 3 Soft target (%) 36.50% 38.25% 40.00% 41.67% 43.33% 45.00% 46.67% 48.33% 50.00% 51.71% 53.40% 55.08% 56.76% 58.44% 60.12% 61.81% 63.49% 65.17% 66.85% 68.53% 70.21% 71.90% 73.58% 75.26% 76.94% 78.62% 4 Required procurement for compliance period
Category 0, 1 and 2 Resources (bundled with RECs)
5 Excess balance at beginning/end of compliance period 924,000 2,689,934 4,317,339 ######## 6,924,636 7,842,438 9,204,833 9,195,533 6 RPS-eligible energy procured (copied from EBT) 399,096 447,015 503,678 428,545 438,701 363,987 425,279 411,838 447,966 530,531 497,188 355,920 389,613 404,679 361,955 277,041 288,106 512,352 429,673 429,670 0 0 0 0 0 0 6A Amount of energy applied to procurement obligation 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 7 Net purchases of Category 0, 1 and 2 RECs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7A Excess balance and REC purchases applied to procurement obligation 8 Net change in balance/carryover (RECs and RPS-eligible energy) (6+7-6A-7A) 395,996 443,915 500,578 425,445 435,601 360,887 422,179 408,738 444,866 527,431 494,088 352,820 386,513 401,579 358,855 273,941 285,006 509,252 426,573 426,570 (3,100) (3,100) (3,100) (3,100) 0 0 Category 3 Resources (unbundled RECs)
9 Excess balance at beginning/end of compliance period 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Net purchases of Category 3 RECs
11 Excess balance and REC purchases applied to procurement obligation 12 Net change in REC balance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Total generation plus RECs (all Categories) applied to procurement requirement (6A + 7A + 11) 14 Over/under procurement for compliance period (13 - 4) 9,300
4,021
Compliance Period 3 Compliance Period 4 Compliance Period 5 Compliance Period 6 4849
12,400
5683 5,279
7550.98
12,400
6716.77
9,300
4,492
4,808 0
3,100
3,100
Compliance Period 10
3552.067833 5,207 9,300
Compliance Period 7
9,300 9,300 9,300
Compliance Period 8 Compliance Period 9
5748 4,093 0
Attachment B: HETCH HETCHY POWER ADOPTED
RPS PROCUREMENT PLAN
26 San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
PROCUREMENT PLAN
To ensure compliance with the
California Renewable Portfolio Standard {RPS)
{Adopted by Resolution J 2 · gz 17
1. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The California Renewable Energy Resources Act (the Act), effective December 10, 2011, amended California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), 1 which establishes requirements for electric utilities' use of renewable energy resources (RPS-eligible supplies)2 to serve their retail customers. The RPS, with certain exceptions, requires the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) to meet 100% of its retail sales on an annual basis with generation from errher the Hetch Hetchy system or with RPS eligible supplies. 3
On December 13, 2011 in Resolution 11-0202, the SFPUC adopted an Enforcement Program to ensure the SFPUC will meet its RPS requirements. The Enforcement Program directs SFPUC staff to prepare a Procurement Plan for the Commission's adoption which identifies the SFPUC's requirements under the RPS and establishes a forecasting and procurement process to meet those needs.
The scope of this Procurement Plan is strictly limited to ensuring that the SFPUC is able to meet its RPS requirements in a cost-effective manner while maintaining reliable service and minimizing financial risk. The RPS and the Procurement Plan neither determine nor otherwise limit City or SFPUC policies and programs for renewable energy.
The Act amended the RPS to make its requirements mandatory for publicly owned utilities. The Procurement Plan covers the SFPUC's requirements under the RPS as of January 1, 2011.
1 The Act is also referred to by its bill number as either SB2 orSBXl-2. The Act made a number of changes to state law, including the California Public Utilities Code Section 399.11 et seq. 2 RPS-eligible supplies are generated by facilities certified as renewable by the california Energy Commission for purposes of complying with the RPS legislation. These resources include generation from wind, solar, geothermal, small hydro, wave, tidal, biomass, and/or the Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) associated with them.
' Public Utilities Code Section 399.30(k).
1 The Procurement Plan consists of:
• The SFPUC's RPS requirements under the RPS (Sections 2 and 3) including exceptions (Section 4).
• The Procurement Process, Guidelines and Authority (Section 5). The Procurement Plan directs the General Manager to develop forecasts to ensure the SFPUC timely meets the requirements of the RPS. If the forecasts identify a need to procure additional RPS-eligible supplies, the Procurement Plan authorizes the General Manager to procure these supplies up to certain limits. • The reporting and public notice requirements required by the RPS and the SFPUC's Enforcement Program (Section 6).
Attachment B to the Procurement Plan includes forecasts of the SFPUC's RPS requirements for the SFPUC's adopted budget (covering Fiscal Year (FY) 2012-13 and FY 2013-14), and the ten-year financial forecast and Capital Improvement Plan through 2022. For consistency, forecasts of the SFPUC's RPS requirements utilize the same forecasts that are used to prepare the budget and long-term plans. Attachment B also reports on the SFPUC's requirements for calendar years 2011 and 2012.
The Procurement Plan Forecasts will be updated as needed. The next update is expected to occur in conjunction with the development of the SFPUC's next two-year budget (covering FY2014-15 and FY2015-16) to ensure that the costs of any expected RPS requirements, including known forecasting uncertainties, are incorporated into the Commission's adopted budgets and longer-term financial forecasts. Updates outside of the regular budget process will be done as necessary to reflect any material changes in the SFPUC's expected requirements under the RPS.
2. THE SFPUC'S RPS REQUIREMENTS
Statutory Requirement
Under the RPS, the SFPUC is required to meet 100% of its retail sales with either Hetch Hetchy generation or with RPS-eligible supplies, pursuant to Section 399.30(k) of the Public Utilities Code, which states that:
A local publicly owned electric utility in a city and county that only receives greater than 67 percent of its electricity sources from hydroelectric generation located within the state that it owns and operates, and that does not meet the definition of a renewable electrical generation facility pursuant to Section 25741 of the Public Resources Code, shall be required to procure eligible renewable energy resources, including renewable energy credits, to meet only the electricity demands unsatisfied by its hydroelectric generation in any given year, in order to satisfy its renewable energy procurement requirements.
Generation from the Retch Hetchy system has never fallen below 67% of the SFPUC's retail sales in the last 90 years of recorded data.
2 Pursuant to Section 399.30(k), the SFPUC's RPS-eligible supplies used to meet its RPS requirements may include either the RPS-eligible renewable energy together with its associated RECs, or the purchase of RPS-eligible RECs.4 Calendar Year Requirement
The Procurement Plan establishes a calendar year obligation for determining the SFPUC's requirements under the RPS.5
The RPS applies only to the SFPUC's Retail Sales
The SFPUC's RPS requirements are limited to the electricity supplies used to meet the SFPUC's retail sales. The SFPUC's retail sales currently include sales to municipal customers, tenants on City property such as at the Airport and Port, and other retail customers. Retail sales also include service to Hunters Point, Treasure Island, Trans Bay Joint Powers Authority, as well as service to redevelopment or other areas for which the SFPUC provides electric service.5
The Procurement Plan does not apply to the SFPUC's electricity supplies or retail sales for its Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) program, CleanPowerSF.7 The SFPUC's wholesale sales of electricity, such as the SFPUC's sales to the Modesto and Turlock Irrigation Districts (MID and TID or the Districts), to the Norris-Riverbank Redevelopment Agency, and other sales to third parties through wholesale market transactions, are not covered by the RPS.
Hetch Hetchy Resources Available to Serve Retail Load
Available Hetch Hetchy generation includes generation, calculated on annual basis, from any of the Hetch Hetchy facilities operated by the SFPUC. This includes net withdrawals (withdrawals less deposits during the calendar year) of Hetch Hetchy generation associated with the operation of the Deferred Delivery Account (DDA). This calculation excludes any sale of Hetch Hetchy generation made on a specified basis5 such as current sales of Hetch Hetchy generation under long term contracts to the Districts and deposits to the MID Deferral Account (MDA).
4 The RPS establishes three different types of RECs associated with the generation of renewable energy categorized as Portfolio Content Category 1, 2, or 3 depending upon their source and characteristics (informally referred to as Buckets 1, 2, and 3). The SFPUC, under the RPS, is allowed to procure any combination of renewable energy or RECs from any of these three categories to meet its RPS requirements pursuant to Section 399.30(k).
5 This includes a "true-up" period where any shortfalls could be made up after the end of the SFPUC's calendar year obligation but before the SFPUC files its compliance reports to the CEC. 6 The General Manager may update this list as necessary to reflect the addition of new customer classes or any reclassification of load between wholesale and retail as appropriate. s Regulations for BPS requirements for CCAs are determined by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) although CCAs, such as CleanPowerSF, may adopt RPS goals that exceed what is required by the CPUC
A "specified sale" occurs when the electric generation being sold can be tracked back to a specific generating source through such means as contracts or other written sales agreements or that the REC associated with the generation is also specifically transferred with its underlying generation. 3 RPS-Eliqible Supplies Available to Serve Retail Load
RPS-eligible supplies are those renewable resources that meet the requirements of Section 399.12(e) of the Public Utilities Code. The SFPUC's RPS-eligible resources currently include in-City solar facilities such as the Sunset Reservoir Photovoltaic (PV) Project, the biomethane-fueled cogeneration facility at the Southeast Wastewater Treatment Facility, and the Moccasin low-head hydroelectric facility. 9 I9 " Under the RPS, generation from RPS-eligible supplies will be tracked through the issuance of renewable energy credits (RECs) that verify renewable energy was generated. 12 These RPS-eligible supplies will be available to serve SFPUC retail load unless the associated REC has been unbundled and transferred to another party.
3. DETERMINATION OF NEED FOR ADDITIONAL RPS-
ELIGIBLE SUPPLIES (IF ANY)
Any shortfall between the SFPUC's retail sales and its available Hetch Hetchy and RPS eligible generation results in a requirement (need) for additional RPS-eligible supplies, as follows:
9 Some Hetch Hetchy generation is also RPS-eligible. Hetch Hetchy generation that Is RPS-eligible will be counted only once (as either RPS-eligible generation or as Hetch Hetchy generation) for determining the SFPUC's yearly RPS requirements.
1° The SFPUC has submitted applications to the CEC to certify all of its RPS-eligible resources including the Kirkwood units which are eligible under the Act as water conveyance facilities. Due to back logs in the CEC certification process, the certifications may take several months to complete. For purposes of the Procurement Plan Forecasts, generation from the Kirkwood Units is not counted as RPS-eligible. If needed, the forecasts will be updated when the CEC certifications of the Kirkwood units are completed. li This list will be updated as necessary to reflect the addition/deletion of new RPS-eligible sources. For example, the Oceanside cogeneration plant is currently not counted as a RPS-eligible supply since its generation is used to serve on-site load and is not used by Power Enterprise to serve its retail sales as a POU. Similarly, the load served by the plant is not included in the SFPUC's retail sales.
RECs will be tracked through the Western Regional Energy Generating Information System (WREGIS), a multi-state organization developed by the CEC that tracks and records renewable electric generation throughout the Western United States. The CEC is requiring all POUs to use WREGIS to track their renewable energy generation. The Commission authorized the establishment of a WREGIS account for the SFPUC for this purpose in Resolution 11-0151. WREGIS ensures that RECs are tied to actual renewable generation which is counted and credited only once by the entity that holds the REC. 4 SFPUC:
Retail
Sales "E, LESS
H etch Fletchy
Generation
available to serve
retail load
Need (if positive)
For RPS
- Eligible -
Resources
(subject to
exceptions) _
_ Existing _
RPS-Eligible EQUALS
Supplies
available to serve
retail load
In addition, any SFPUC purchases of resource-specific supplies from third parties that are not RPS-eligible but are used to meet the SFPUC's retail sales must be matched with an equivalent volume of RPS-eligible supplies."
Carry Forward and Excess Procurement Provisions
In the event that the SFPUC's Hetch Hetchy generation and RPS-eligible supplies are more than the amount required to meet the RPS requirements for a given calendar year, the associated RECs may be carried forward for use in future years or sold. RECs initially may be used to meet the SFPUC's requirements for up to 36 months after the underlying renewable energy is generated" and (subject to certain restrictions) excess procurement of RPS-eligible supplies above what the SFPUC needs to meet its RPS requirements may be carried forward beyond the 36 month limit and applied to meet future RPS requirements.15Should there be more RECs than are foreseeably needed to ensure the SFPUC meets the requirements of the RPS," surplus RECs may be sold.
4. EXCEPTIONS
Cap on Annual RPS Compliance Comparable to Other Utilities The GEC's draft regulations implementing the RPS do not require the SFPUC to procure more renewable energy as a percentage of its retail sales than California's other electric utilities. The Procurement Plan sets an upper limit on the amount of RPS-eligible energy the SFPUC is required to procure in any given calendar year of 20% for calendar years 2011 through 2016, 25% for calendar years 2017 through 2020 and 33% for calendar years 2021 and beyond based on the GEC's draft regulations. These requirements also 14 Public Utilities Code Section 399.21(a)(6)
15 Public Utilities Code 399.30(d)(1) and 399.13(a)(4)(13). 15 These estimates will also be developed as part of the RN forecasts prepared according to this plan. 5 apply for any calendar year the SFPUC does not meet 67% of its retail sales from its Hetch Hetchy generation.
Cost Limitation Provision
The Risk Management budget will include reserves to fund additional RPS-eligible resources (based on Procurement Plan forecasts) that may be needed to address potential shortfalls under known uncertainties such as dry-year forecasts.
Under this cost limitation, the SFPUC is not required to purchase additional RPS-eligible supplies that are needed to meet the requirements of the RPS if the cost of those supplies would exceed the funding available in the SFPUC's adopted budget for Risk Management expenditures by Power Enterprise, subject to maintaining prudent reserves for other non-RPS procurement cost contingencies through the remainder of the budget cycle in which the procurement occurs.
Additionally, the SFPUC is not required to purchase additional RPS-eligible supplies that are needed to meet the requirements of the RPS if the cost of those supplies would exceed $100/MWh above the market cost of a comparable volume of energy that is not RPS-eligible.17
Deferral Authority
The SFPUC may defer timely compliance with the requirements of the RPS if the Commission determines that the SFPUC meets the requirements of Sections 399.30(d)(2) and 399.15(b) of the Public Utilities Code. These provisions allow POUs to defer compliance due to events beyond their control such as inadequate transmission capacity, permitting/interconnection issues, insufficient supply of renewable energy resources, or unanticipated curtailments.
I7 Th1s limitation does not apply to the costs of the SFPUC's existing RN-eligible supplies. 6 5. PROCESS FOR MEETING THE RPS
REQUIREMENTS
The Procurement Plan establishes the following process, guidelines and authority for obtaining necessary RPS-eligible supplies that may be required.
Preparation of Forecasts for Determining the Need for Additional RPS-Eligible Supplies
The SFPUC shall prepare and update forecasts in a timely manner as needed for a calendar year, budget cycle, and longer time frame to determine the SFPUC's forecasted obligations under the RPS. Each forecast shall include, at a minimum, the following elements:
a. Forecasts of retail sales, Hetch Hetchy generation, existing SFPUC RPS- eligible supplies, and wholesale sales;
b. A calculation of the amount of any additional RPS eligible supplies the SFPUC may need to acquire in order to ensure compliance with the RPS; c. Identification of known uncertainties in the forecasts, primarily fluctuations in Hetch Hetchy generation due to hydrologic conditions, water needs and/or extended generator outages;
d. An evaluation of market conditions including strategies for mitigating cost and risk exposure given known forecasting uncertainties; and e. Any other information that is useful in assisting the Commission to evaluate its needs under the RPS.
The forecasts will be coordinated and consistent with the forecasts developed as part of the SFPUC's budget cycle and long-term financial and Capital Investment Plan.
Procurement of Additional RPS-Eligible Supplies
When forecasts show a long-term, recurring need for additional RPS supplies, the General Manager shall recommend procurement actions to the Commission for its approval. To meet forecasted short term (under two years), non-recurring needs and to meet shortfalls resulting from forecasting uncertainties, the General Manager is authorized to procure the RPS-eligible suppliesm that are needed, subject to the following requirements:
a. The supplies are acquired through short-term market transactions; b. The procurement process follows the SFPUC's procurement and risk management practices to minimize costs and risk exposure; c. Reliable service is maintained;
d. Within the two-year budget cycle, the total volume procured is limited to the greater of;
(i) A cost limit of $500,000; or
(ii) 5% of retail sales.
LB Purchases may include either the purchase of RPS-eligible renewable energy with its associated REC, or the purchase of RPS-eligible RECs.
7 e. The total cost of procurement is within the cost limitation provisions of this Procurement Plan.
In procuring these additional RPS-eligible supplies, the General Manager shall seek to minimize the SFPUC's cost of meeting the RPS requirements, but may pay a reasonable premium to purchase RPS-eligible supplies that are located within California.
Should the SFPUC own more RECs than are foreseeably needed to ensure the SFPUC meets its RPS requirements, the General Manager may sell surplus RECs.
Procurement of RPS-eligible supplies that does not meet these requirements or is otherwise beyond these limits is subject to Commission approval.
6. REPORTING AND PUBLIC NOTICE
The General Manager shall provide reports to the Commission and the public on any material variance from the adopted Procurement Plan on a quarterly basis. The report shall explain any material variances, and to the extent the variances show a trend toward non-compliance with the adopted Procurement Plan, the report shall recommend corrective actions to ensure compliance.
The General Manager will report to the public and the California Energy Commission using the format and reporting protocols specified by the California Energy Commission.
The Commission will provide notice to the public as required by the Brown Act,19 and to the California Energy Commission as required under Public Utilities Code Section 399.30(0(2) and (f)(3)2° whenever it is deliberating in public on this Procurement Plan.
The Commission may modify this Procurement Plan as needed. 19 Government Code Section 54950 et seq. The Brown Act governs the public meetings of government agencies and provides among other provisions; notice requirements, distribution of meeting agenda, public meetings, and opportunity to comment The SFPUC already follows the Brown Act in its public meetings.
20 These provisions require respectively that 'contemporaneously with the posting of the notice of a public meeting to consider the...procurement plan", the POU shall notify the CEC of the date, time, and location of the meeting in order to enable the CEC to post the information on its website and that any information provided publicly to the Commission shall also be provided to the CEC for posting on its website. Both requirements can be met "by providEing] the URL that links to the documents or information regarding other manners of access to the documents." 8