SAN FRANCISCO WATERFRONT
FLOOD STUDY
Draft Report and Public Feedback
March 12, 2024
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
WHAT IS THE FLOOD STUDY?
● The Flood Study analyzes coastal flood risk and the effects of sea level rise to the San Francisco waterfront along the Port’s 7.5- mile jurisdiction over the next 100 years.
● The Draft Plan will inform subsequent stages of funding and design in order to develop targeted construction projects. ● The proposed solutions are estimated to cost $13.5 billion (high- level, preliminary cost estimate) and, if approved by Congress, the Federal government may pay 65% of the cost.
● The Flood Study is led by the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers (USACE) in collaboration with the City of San Francisco.
San Francisco Waterfront
Flood Study
2 Southern Waterfront
Adaptation
HOW SAN FRANCISCO IS ADDRESSING THOSE RISKS
The San Francisco Waterfront Flood Study is one of
several adaptation efforts by City and Federal agencies to address risks and build resilience
3 YOUR FEEDBACK IS IMPORTANT TO US AND THE PROCESS
4 USACE and the City are seeking public comment on the Draft Integrated Feasibility Report and Environmental Impact Statement through March 29, 2024.
Provide comments today:
● Comment cards are available at the tables and can be dropped in one of the boxes
● Provide verbal comments at the Court Reporter station ● Open-mic: After this presentation you can provide 1 minute of comments to the group. No questions will be answered.
Provide written comments:
● Email: [email protected]
● Mail: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Tulsa District ATTN: RPEC-SFWS, 2488 E 81st St., Tulsa, OK 74137
● Online: sfport.com/wrp
To stay in touch, please sign up for the Port of SF's Waterfront Resilience Program eNewsletter and mailing list by visiting sfport.com and clicking the Signup for e-newsletter in the footer and selecting Waterfront Resilience Program from the list in the form provided.
1 Waterfront Risks and Hazards
5 San Francisco’s waterfront location makes it
vulnerable to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
WHAT’S AT RISK?
Potential Sea Level Rise by 2100
6 San Francisco’s waterfront location makes it vulnerable to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
Without a Federal project, modeling shows:
- By 2050, 100 to 500 structures and assets will
be vulnerable to flooding
- By 2140, damages could amount up to $23 billion
WHAT’S AT RISK?
Seismic Hazard
Up to 40,000 people could be at risk on Port property
if an earthquake occurs during the day
Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment, Port of San Francisco, 2020 7 San Francisco, 1906
2 San Francisco Waterfront
Flood Study
8 CONSIDERATIONS OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN PLANNING
9 The Flood Study manages uncertainty by considering the risks, scale, cost, timing, and adaptability of the flood defense system across a range of sea level rise scenarios.
Modeling includes typical Bay storms.
7 Feet Sea Level Rise
3.5 Feet Sea Level Rise
1.5 Feet Sea Level Rise
MEASURES CONSIDERED
10 Structural
● Berms / Levees
● Floodwalls / Seawalls
● Wharf Raising
● Water Management
Structures
Nonstructural
● Floodproofing
● Retreat
● Buy-outs
Nature-based
● Marsh
Restoration
● Coarse Beaches
● Ecotone Levees
● Living Seawalls
Measures Not Carried
Forward
● Offshore seawall
● Barrier across the
Go
lden Gate
● Offshore wave
a
ttenuator
● Full Managed
R
etreat
KEY FEEDBACK THAT HELPED SHAPE THE DRAFT PLAN
Focus on life safety & emergency response
Put people first
Prioritize housing, disaster recovery facilities, utilities, transportation and businesses
Expand (and maintain) the City’s connection
to the waterfront
Prioritize nature and healing the Bay
Consider racial and social equity and
environmental justice
11 EQUITY
12 • Equity is a core consideration of the
Draft Plan, informed by the Port’s
Racial Equity Action Plan.
• The Draft Plan incorporated social
considerations into plan analysis and
development, including
disproportionate impacts on
vulnerable populations
The Waterfront Resilience Program is committed to advancing racial and social equity by:
Conduct meaningful and
inclusive Public Outreach
and Engagement
Invest in resilience
projects in historically
marginalized communities
Promote equitable hiring
and contracting practices
Collect equity impact data
for decision-making
A COMPREHENSIVE COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS THAT ELEVATES EQUITY Other Social Effects (USACE Analysis) data included in Alternative Selection Historically, plan selection maximizes NED national
economic benefits. This plan incorporates analysis
across four categories:
+ National Economic Development (including
damages prevented, cost of construction)
+ Regional economic impacts (including jobs)
+ Environmental quality, consequences, and
compliance (including pollution)
+ Other social effects (including disproportionate
effects on vulnerable populations)
13 MONITORING AND ADAPTATION ACTIONS OVER TIME
Future
Adaptation
Early Projects
Now until 2030
Addresses highest risk
areas through Proposition
A General Obligation Bond
First Actions
~2030 and beyond
Defends against 1.5 to 3.5 feet
of sea level rise, actions prioritized
and phased
Subsequent Actions
Timing driven by monitoring
Defends against 3.5 to 7 feet
of sea level rise
14Note: Dates are approximate and subject to change. Projects will occur in phases which will extend over decades.
The Draft Plan
Monitoring
(Sea Level Rise,
Climate Indicators)
Federal Actions
WHAT IS IN THE DRAFT PLAN?
Where to build flood defenses How high to build flood defenses How much space to use Have we located the flood
defenses in the right place?
Should we invest in higher levels of
flood defense first, or adapt in
multiple phases?
More space provides more flexibility but is
associated with more disruption. Less space
means more abrupt grade changes.
15 ...and How flood defenses can be adapted in the future The Draft Plan does not include the following:
● Detailed designs for flood defenses
● Designs for waterfront streets, open spaces,
and infrastructure (including pumping
stations)
● Timing and sequencing of construction
● Funding plan
These elements will be developed during later
project phases with the public, USACE and City
Agencies.
● A re-design for the future waterfront
● A plan for the Embarcadero Historic District, the Ferry Building and public plazas and roadway, and creek and
shoreline amenities
Project plans and implementation strategies will leverage other opportunities, align with other public and private projects, and reflect what the City can afford given other capital obligations
The Draft Plan is not:What's not being decided at this stage?
3 The Draft Plan
17 THE DRAFT PLAN
Incorporate nature
based features, such as
creek enhancements
Waterfront-wide stormwater
management adaptations related
to coastal flood defenses
Raise the shoreline
with seismically
resilient structures
Floodproof piers
and select buildings
Adapt historic waterfront
buildings and wharves
18 FISHERMAN'S WHARF: FIRST ACTIONS
Floodproofing structures
Add short walls
around the piers
Floodproof select buildings
along the water’s edge Existing
high ground
19 Existing breakwaters
● Elevate the shoreline, wharves, and historic
buildings
● Seismic ground improvements.
● Defend utility/transportation networks
SUBSEQUENT ACTIONS
(included, but dependent on monitoring)
EMBARCADERO: FIRST ACTIONS
Defend against 3.5 feet of sea level rise
Raise buildings along the water’s
edge and raise wharves
Raise the shoreline and roadway with a gradual
transition, designed to withstand a seismic event
Add short walls around the
piers
RINCON PARK
FERRY BUILDING
20 ● No subsequent action currently anticipated to
be needed to withstand 3.5’ of sea level rise –
subject to change depending on actual rate of
sea level rise
SUBSEQUENT ACTIONS
(included, but dependent on monitoring)
SOUTH BEACH / MISSION BAY: FIRST ACTIONS
Elevate the shoreline to defend against 1.5 feet of sea level rise Add short walls
around the piers
Ground improvements to
ensure flood defenses
withstand a seismic event
New park and development
projects will adapt their
sites to sea level rise
SOUTH BEACH
Berms/levees +
nature- based features
Closure structures
on bridges
Elevated shoreline
21 ● Elevate shoreline to withstand 3.5’ of Sea
Level Rise
● Incorporate additional nature based
features along the creek and Bay shoreline
SUBSEQUENT ACTIONS
(included, but dependent on monitoring)
ISLAIS CREEK / BAYVIEW: FIRST ACTIONS
Elevate the shoreline to defend against 1.5 feet of sea level rise Add short walls
around the piers
Ground improvements to ensure
flood defenses withstand a seismic
event
Berms/levees +
nature- based features
Closure structure on
Illinois Street Bridge
New raised
wharves
Connect with
higher ground
Third Street
Bridge
Replacement
Project
22 ● Elevate shoreline to withstand 3.5’ of Sea Level Rise ● Incorporate additional nature-based features along
the creek and Bay shoreline
SUBSEQUENT ACTIONS
(included, but dependent on monitoring)
Defend communities,
assets, and
infrastructure
equitably against
coastal flooding
A CATALYST FOR A MORE RESILIENT SAN FRANCISCO
Secure funding
through
collaboration with the
Federal government
This is a once-in-a-century opportunity to:
Adapt historic and
cultural resources to
climate change
Safeguard resilient
transit and utility
networks
Improve
earthquake safety
related to flood
defense projects
Invest in a great
public waterfront
along with flood
defense projects
23 4 SFPUC Considerations
24 SFPUC Steps to Date
Characterized Coastal Flood Risk
• Mapped SFPUC’s assets in coastal flood risk zones
• Characterized wastewater system p erformance in
future scenarios
Assessed Benefits of Coastal Defense
• Developed straw-p erson concepts for futures with and without coastal defenses to inform preliminary cost
and benefit accounting
• Analyzed USACE’s stormwater management proposal
Engaged in In-Reach and Outreach
• Convened SFPUC staff to increase a wareness of Draft
Plan and collect Enterprise-specific feedback
• Participated in Engineering with Nature subcommittee
• Participating in joint public outreach efforts
SFPUC next steps with partners
Provide feedback on Draft Plan
• Prepare a joint Comment Letter with other city agencies in response to the public release of the Draft Plan
Work with USACE and city partners to develop scope and costs in Final Plan • Analyze scope and cost estimates prepared by USACE and SF Port for future infrastructure needs
Include relevant Enterprise impacts and opportunities into SFPUC's long-range planning processes
• Develop a multi-Enterprise infrastructure phasing overview and planning strategy for SFPUC • Include resources for planning and integrating into the long-range planning process Begin governance and finance discussions with other city agencies • Begin discussion with ClimateSF /other city agencies on governance and finance strategies for climate resilience
• Develop governance strategy and city-wide policy for managing large storms in a dense urban setting
Thank you
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers | [email protected]
Port of SF Waterfront Resilience Program | [email protected]