“A multicounty agency authorized to plan for and
acquire supplemental water supplies, encourage
water conservation and use of recycled water on
a regional basis.”
[BAWSCA Act, AB2058 (Papan-2002)]
T om Smegal, BAWCSA
CEO/General Manager
SFPUC Presentation
January 27, 2026
Demand Projections Support Individual Agency and Regional Planning Efforts
• BAWSCA facilitates update to agency-specific demand projections every five years • Updated demand projections support local and regional planning efforts ▪ Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs)
▪ Compliance with new state-wide water use efficiency regulations ▪ BAWSCA’s Long-T erm Regional Water Supply Strategy (Strategy 2050) • Baseline demand forecasts reflect agency-approved demographic projections ▪ Align with individual agency planning documents (e.g., City-wide Master Plans and approved developments)
Regional Demand is Projected to Increase Gradually Through 2050, Moderated by Ongoing Conservation and Efficiency
197
265
176
238226
222
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
1986
1988
1990
1992
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1998
2000
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2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
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2024
2026
2028
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2044
2046
2048
2050
Demand (MGD)
Drought Year Historical Demand
2025 Study with No Add. Conservation 2025 Study with Passive Conservation 2025 Study with Passive and Active Conservation
2050 Demand is Projected to be 13% Less Than Prior 2045 Demand Projection
197
265
176
256
215 222
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Demand (MGD)
Drought Year Historical Demand 2020 Study 2025 Study with Passive and Active Conservation From 1986 to 2050, Projected Population Increases 86% while Demand Decreases 15%
261
222
1.4 2.6
0.00 0.50
1.00 1.50
2.00 2.50
3.00 0
50 100
150
200
250
300
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
Population (Millions)
Demand (MGD)
Drought Year Historical Demand
2025 Study with Passive and Active Conservation Historical Population 2025 Study Population Projection
Residential Per Capita Use in 2050 Projected to Be 23% Less than Lowest Recorded Use for Region
55 56
45 44
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
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2026
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2034
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2050
Daily Res Per Capita Demand
Drought Year Historical Res GPCD 2020 Study Res GPCD 2025 Study Res GPCD SF Regional Water System Purchases Projected to Stay Below 184 MGD Supply Assurance Through 2050
123
134 136 141 144 148
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
180
200
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
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2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Demand (MGD)
Drought Year Historical RWS Purchases Projected RWS Purchases Alternative Scenario Analysis Provides Practical Framework to Explore a Range of Plausible Futures
• Scenario analysis enables water suppliers to test assumptions and assess the resilience of strategies under varying conditions
Present
(2025)
Planning
Futures
(2050)
• Developed by considering the many possible
combinations of external forces that impact
member agency’s water demand
Comparison of Water Demand Scenarios
191 222
266
258
206
175
157
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Projected Water Demand (mgd)
Baseline High Moderated-High Historical Trend Moderated-Low Low Summary and Next Steps
• Regional water demand is projected to remain relatively flat or grow only slightly through the planning period
▪ 37% increase in population by 2050
• Growth is tempered by compounding passive conservation savings ▪ Passive and active conservation savings are projected to reduce demand by 7% • BAWSCA agencies continue to rely on Regional Water System purchases within the184 mgd Supply Assurance