Peninsula Clean
Energy Board
Meeting
October 23, 2025
This meeting will begin shortly.
Thank you!
Agenda
• Call to Order / Roll Call
• Public Comment (for items not on the Agenda)
• Please note, send Zoom chats to Brianna Arroyo, Admin Asst. • Action to set the Agenda and Approve Consent items 1-4 • Consent – Public Comment
• Regular Agenda items
• Adjournment
Chair Report
CEO Report
CEO Report
Los Banos Wastewater Treatment Plant and Dos Palos Ribbon Cuttings - Thanks to all who attended!
CEO Report
• Sunzia and Hetch Hetchy Site Visits; CAISO and Diablo Canyon upcoming
• Caltrain Press Conference; PCE removed from bill language • Portable Battery Program for vulnerable customers
CEO Report: October/November Community Events
7 • October 24 – Breaking Barriers Trunk or Treat, Los Banos • October 24 – EcoHero School Presentation, San Mateo County • October 25 – Halloween Fest Parks & Recreation, Los Banos • October 26 – Halloween Trunk or Treat, Los Banos
• October 28 -30 – VERGE, San José
• November 2 – Día de Muertos, Redwood City
• November 5 – Puente Food Distribution, Pescadero
• November 8 – Peninsula Green@Home, San Mateo County
• November 15 – SMC Environmental Youth Summit, San Mateo County • November 16 – EV Showcase, San Carlos
• November 16 – Seminar on Peninsula Home Energy Issues & Bill Literacy, Redwood City
• November 19 – Spanish-Language Focus Group with Peninsula Family Service, San Mateo County
Upcoming Meetings – November 2025
Community Advisory Committee:
• Thursday, November 6 at 6:30 p.m.
Audit and Finance Committee:
• Monday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m.
Executive Committee:
• Monday, November 10, at 10:00 a.m.
Board of Directors Meeting:
• Thursday, November 20 at 6:30 p.m. THIRD Thursday
Community Advisory Committee Report
Power Industry
Outlook
Guest Speaker:
Chris Sieple, Vice Chairman, Power and Renewables Group, Wood Mackenzie Peninsula Clean
Energy
October 2025
Chris Seiple
[email protected]
Vice Chairman
2 More of an energy
evolution than an
energy transition
Passenger EV share of total sales
Source: Wood Mackenzie Energy Transition Service, California Energy Commission Core energy transition technologies are quietly growing despite sometimes negative headlines
3 Solar and wind capacity, GW
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
China Global ex-China
Electricity share in end-use demand
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e
15%
20%
25%
30%
China US EU27 and UK Other average California
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e
0 10%
20%
30%
40 50
60 But the core technologies growth is not sufficient meaning a slow energy evolution is more likely than an energy transition
Projected global energy-related net CO2emissions, Bt
-10
0 10
20 30
40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Base case: 2.5°C
(Most likely outcome)
Net zero: 1.5°C
Delayed transition: 3°C
Country pledges: 2°C
• Investments to decarbonize the global economy are
not nearly at sufficient scale to put the globe on track to a net zero economy
• Political support to abate climate change is waning in some geographies
• The needed new technologies such as long duration
energy storage, green hydrogen, carbon capture and
storage, and cost competitive nuclear are moving very
slow compared to the need
• If the economy is not going to reach its net zero goals, it will be very difficult for companies and states and
countries to reach their goals
The US new energy policy trilemma: goals come into conflict Lower prices for US consumers
Energy
dominance
and AI
Reviving US
manufacturing Trade war
Increased competitiveness
The Trump administration’s energy goals face inherent contradictions. Trade-offs are inevitable, key question for renewable focused companies is do the goals shift the administration’s anti-renewables agenda Disruption to geopolitics, trade and tackling climate change results in daily whiplash for energy industry executives 5 Electricity demand growth
will be biggest challenge
for energy companies to
manage over next decade
US Electricity Demand and Real GDP Growth Index (2000 = 100) The trend has been consistent for 70 years – economic growth has resulted in diminishing amounts of electricity demand growth over time – but this trend is ending 0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 US Electricity Demand
US Real GDP
7.3%
3.3%
9.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.2%
2.4%
1.8%
3.1%
3.2%
0.8%
3.3%
2.2%
-0.1%
Sources: EIA and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
• When you’ve had the same
trend for 70 years, it’s a surprise
when there is a large reversal of
that trend
• Surprises in demand growth are
challenging in an industry that
has 5 to 10 year planning cycles
• US utilities do not have growth-oriented cultures, nor do the regulators who regulate them
Sources: Arizona Public Service 2023 Integrated Resource Plan, XHLF = Extra High Load Factor Customers Demand growth is mostly being driven by very large loads – data centers and energy intensive manufacturing – which is new to the industry
APS Peak Demand Forecast (MW)
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Residential
Comm + Ind <3 MW
Comm + Ind >3 MW
Comm + Ind XHLF
Electric Vehicles
APS Energy Demand Forecast (GWh)
• Arizona Public Service’s (APS) demand forecast reflects the trend for the industry nationally. Large loads will go from being nearly 0% of their customer base in 2023 to 1/3 of their customer base over the next decade. • Utilities have no consistent large load interconnection processes to manage connections like this • Utilities have to navigate significant uncertainty around which lumpy additions to demand will get built • It’s rare in the past for utilities to have so much investment and revenue associated with such a small group of customers, causing a rethink of how rates should be set and how to manage risk
Changing market regulation
Power market trends make meeting all this demand growth challenging, if not unlikely Capacity Accreditation
• Reducing capacity available to meet
demand at times of constraint
Carbon emissions are not being
reduced sufficiently to slow climate
change
• Extreme weather will continue to stress
the power sector with both colder and
hotter temperatures
Supply-constrained world Extreme weather
Supply, not demand, is the active
constraint • Transformer lead times have tripled
since 2021: 50-150+ weeks ARO
• Heavy frame gas turbine backlogs
growing and costs escalating
• Forecast coal retirements 9% to 24%
of peak demand in some regions
10 • Prediction in 1999 Forbes article by Mark Mills: “At least 100 million nodes on the Internet, drawing from
hundreds to thousands of kilowatt-hours per year, add up to 290 billion kWh of demand. That's about 8% of total
U.S. demand. Add in the electric power used to build and operate stand-alone (unnetworked) chips and computers,
and the total jumps to about 13%. It's now reasonable
to project that half of the electric grid will be
powering the digital-Internet economy within the next
decade.”
• Several power company CEO’s and equity analyst cited
the study justifying investment plans and stock prices
• Flaws in the study include
̵ Not getting the starting point correct due to lack of data
̵ Underestimating future efficiency gains
̵ Not accounting for structural changes in the
economy regarding how the use of the internet
would impact other uses of electricity
Is there risk to this aggressive forecast increase demand? 1999 prediction: Half of US power would be powering the digital economy by 2010
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Combined cycle LCOE based on $2,440 per kW capital costs Estimated 2025 LCOE ($/MWh)
With escalating cost of gas plant construction, renewables remain competitive as a source of new generation with or without subsidies, but end of subsidies will increase customer costs for renewables
130
76 68
98 44
65 130
56 54
98 25
51 CA CCGT CA Wind CA Solar Texas CCGT Texas Wind Texas Solar Without PTC/ITC
With PTC/ITC
Upward pressure on
electricity prices and
complex supply chains
another challenge for
energy suppliers
13 Increasingly extreme weather events are overwhelming grids across the globe Mexico Summer
2022
drought and heat
waves
Arizona 2022 wind
storms July/Sept.
South Korea
Aug/Sept 2022
typhoons and record
rains
China August 2022
severe drought
Argentina Buenos
Aires Jan. 2022
heat wave
India March 2022
heat wave
Iraq summer 2022
heat waves
Pakistan: August
2022
flooding
South Africa: 2022
maintenance issues
Italy June 2022
heat wave
Central Asia January
2022
Drought
Canada May 2022
derecho storm
PJM Winter 2022
Storm Elliot
California 2022-
2023 rain storms
Australia October
2021
windstorm
Florida Sept 2022
Hurricane Ian
Washington wind
storms Nov 2022
14 New tariffs represent another setback for utility project costs +2.3% +4.2% +2.9% +4.1% +4.4%+2.7% +1.2% +3.4% +2.0% +1.7% +13.6%
+9.8%
+7.8% +7.7% +8.0% +6.6% +8.0% +7.0% +6.5%
+4.2%
+27.5%
+11.6% +11.1% +9.5% +10.7% +9.4%
+13.0%
+9.5% +9.5%
+5.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Battery Storage Solar Hydroelectric Onshore Wind Combined Cycle
Simple Cycle Substation Distribution Line Transmission
Line
Grid Connection
Renewable Generation Traditional Generation T&D Infrastructure Low Base High
Source: Wood Mackenzie Supply Chain, US Trade Census, Base case based on tariffs effective August 7th Tariff impacts by asset and scenario Cost Impact
Domestic stationary storage cell manufacturing supply and demand (GWh) With tariffs and increasing pressure to purchase domestically manufactured equipment, management of supply chains is increasingly difficult
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
180
200
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Range of possible supply ESS demand ESS supply - base
Concluding Thoughts
Electricity demand growth and upward cost pressures on industry are set to drive fundamental change to the electric industry
Photo by Joe Rosenthal
Critical question for renewables industry is do market realities and goals of AI leadership and reshoring manufacturing prevail over administration’s anti-renewables agenda
Energy suppliers will need to manage customer expectations arounds costs and prices
Management of supply chains and negotiation of purchase power agreements will likely require more risk taking by energy purchasers, especially renewable energy
This 21st century will be the century of electricity and it’s time for its companies to adopt and embrace the new technologies and capabilities needed to drive efficiency and cost control 18 Appendix
19 ASTANA WASHINGTON DC
CHICAGO
BOSTON
LONDON
RIO MEXICO CITY CALGARY PERTH
SYDNEY BRISBANE DUBAI NEW DELHI BEIJING
SEOUL TOKYO
SHANGHAI JAKARTA
SINGAPORE KUALA LUMPUR HOUSTON
LIMA
ABUJA NEW YORK
SAN FRANCISCO
AUSTIN
AMSTERDAM
HAMBURG
EDINBURGH AARHUS WOOD MACKENZIE OFFICES
VANCOUVER
LOUISVILLE MADRID MUMBAI HYDERABAD
19 Wood Mackenzie is the
global data and analytics
business for renewables,
energy and natural resources.
Enhanced by technology. Enriched by human intelligence. Our capabilities cover research, commodity trading analytics and consulting expertise in
upstream, downstream, chemicals, gas & LNG,
power & renewables, metals & mining, supply
chain and corporate analysis.
years
of trusted
energy advice
50 experts
2,400
30 locations
globally
20 20
The large load pipeline funnel
No turning back
Uncommitted Undisclosed Advanced
discussion
Committed In construction
Utilities do not use uniform terminology when characterizing their large load pipelines. Nor do they provide consistent granularity in pipeline composition, even across subsequent disclosures. Nevertheless, their disclosures can be used to at least partially assign GW of capacity to the segments of the funnel below, whose definitions track closely if not necessarily precisely with each utility.
A CLOA has been executed,
with the customer making a
major financial commitment
for the utility to begin
substation construction work.
An ESA may or may not have
been signed, fixing the terms
of ongoing utility service.
Detailed utility engineering
studies are completed or near
completion, and negotiation of a
construction letter of authority
(CLOA) or electricity service
agreement (ESA) is underway,
which the utility has confidence
will be successful.
The customer has broken
ground on its facility or the
utility has broken ground on
a substation or spur
transmission to connect it.
The utility has not clarified
the status of the portion of
pipeline capacity.
The project is credible enough to be
deemed in the pipeline but has not
signed any binding agreements.
The customer may or may not have
signed a substation engineering
letter of authority (SELOC) to
commence a detailed engineer
study, which requires a deposit.
High-confidence load*
*Important note: This load is high-confidence as disclosed by utilities, not necessarily in the view of Wood Mackenzie. Even committed capacity, which the utility has a legal obligation to serve, faces risk of new regulatory actions, supply chain disruption, or price Source: Wood Mackenzie escalation that would prevent it from reaching COD and later its full contract capacity. 21 *Source: LineVision and AES
345K line ratings on an AES owned transmission line
Grid enhancing transmission technologies accelerating to bring new capacity on line and manage costs
• DLRs measure the capacity of transmission
lines in real-time based on factors such as
temperature and wind speed, as opposed to
traditional static ratings based on conservative
parameters
What is Dynamic Line Rating (DLR)?
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 2023-10-01 2023-10-05 2023-10-09 2023-10-13 2023-10-18 2023-10-22 2023-10-26 2023-10-30 2023-11-04 2023-11-08 2023-11-12 2023-11-16 2023-11-21 2023-11-25 2023-11-29 2023-12-03 2023-12-08 2023-12-12 2023-12-16 2023-12-20 2023-12-25 2023-12-29 2024-01-02 2024-01-06 2024-01-11 2024-01-15 2024-01-19 2024-01-23 2024-01-28 2024-02-01 2024-02-05 2024-02-09 2024-02-14 2024-02-18 2024-02-22 2024-02-26 Ratings (amps) DLR AAR Static Rating
22 Grid topology optimization is also getting increased attention to reduce congestion • Traditional grid management treats the grid as a fixed asset • Topology optimization software technology finds reconfigurations to reroute flow around congestion
̵ Reconfiguration is implemented by switching circuit breakers (open or closed)
̵ Switching infrastructure is already in place
̵ Computing power and technology advances have made it possible for grid operators to evaluate topology optimization in real time • Example projects
̵ The level of curtailment at a wind plant in the US was reduced by 77% ̵ In a pilot program, a utility identified $40 MM in savings over a two year period. $13.7 MM of the savings were implemented by the grid operator, all within the last couple of months of the program as the operator got more comfortable with the analysis.
What is grid topology optimization?
Like WAZE but for power flows
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Copyright © 2025, Wood Mackenzie Limited. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer
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2026-2030 Strategic
Plan: Final Summary
and Five-Year Goals
Discussion
Shalini Swaroop, COO
Process Overview
Orientation
Guiding
Principles
Strategic
Policies
Environmental Impact Five-year Goal
In order to achieve decarbonization targets
by 2035, PCE will double the reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions to 100,000 metric
tons annually by accelerating electrification
of transportation and buildings and the
continued supply of carbon free power. This
will be achieved through energy
procurement, programs, and potential load
growth.
Customer-Focused Approach Five-year Goal
Maintain customer participation rates above
96%, increase customer participation in
energy programs by 200%, achieve at least
60% brand awareness across our service
area, and achieve high ratings for customer
confidence and satisfaction as defined by
operational objectives and measured by
targeted customer feedback and surveys.
Economic Development Five-year Goal
Contain costs to keep customer rates below
competitors, targeting $100 million in
aggregated savings over five years. Invest at
least $150 million in advanced energy
solutions, local clean energy projects and
programs in order to reduce emissions,
strengthen community resilience, promote
energy efficient housing, and create local
clean energy jobs. Together, these
investments will deliver broad economic
benefits across PCE's service area.
Driving Innovation Five-year Goal
Drive adoption and/or co-development of at
least 10 PCE-originated programs, policies,
procurement models, technologies or
operational tools by peer CCAs, other utilities,
local governments, policy makers or other
market participants.
Procurement Five-year Goal
By 2030, execute contracts for an additional
500 MW of new clean/renewable resources
and minimize the reliance on fossil fuel
resources to meet capacity needs while
maintaining 100% compliance in an
increasingly complex regulatory environment.
*500 MW subject to change based on 2026 Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) Equity Programs Five-year Goal
Secure at least $20 million in external grant
funding to design, launch, and grow equity-focused energy programs that deliver direct benefits to vulnerable customers and
communities. Expand PCE’s work with local
community partners on effective program
design, customer access and feedback.
Distributed Energy Resources Five-year Goal
Accelerate distributed energy resource adoption by
adding at least 15 MW of local solar, 35 MWh of
storage at customer sites, and launching at least
one 10 MW virtual power plant that delivers value
to customers, communities, and the grid.
Organizational Excellence Five-year Goal
Implement meaningful improvements in
operational effectiveness, efficiency, equity, and
resilience and provide evidence through data and
performance metrics on an annual basis.
Next Steps
Receive feedback and amend five-year goals if needed for 2026-2030 Strategic Plan adoption at the November 2025 Board meeting.
Lease
Negotiations for
New Office Space
(Action)
Nick Bijur, Chief Financial Officer &
Nelly Wogberg, Office Manager
• Current lease expires Sept. 30, 2026 • 7,660 sq ft between two physically separated suites
• 20 workstations, 7 enclosed offices, 2
conference rooms and a boardroom
• Staff growth from 17 in 2017 to
65 employees today
• Despite remote-first/hybrid work policy,
staff use the office regularly
• In 2024, formed Workplace of Choice
Committee and engaged JLL to
support search process
Background
24 • Insufficient workstation
availability, fragmented office layout
and limited conference rooms no
longer fully supports staff needs
• Boardroom modest in size; layout
and physical space is inefficient
• Located near County edge with
limited public transit options
• Quarterly all-staff meetings
require renting outside venues, adding
cost and logistical burden
Challenges with Current Office
25 Assessing the Need
• Needs Assessment: 9,000-10,000 sq. ft.
• Flexible workstations and more space for meetings
• Larger boardroom that supports staff and public participation • Space for quarterly all-staff meetings and community events • Central county location with improved access for staff, the Board and the public • Staff preferences:
• Ample parking
• Public transit access
• Walkability to “amenities” (lunch places, coffee shops, services, etc.) • Modern workspace with natural light
26 Alternatives Considered
Extensive search: Toured ~15 sites across Redwood City, San Carlos, San Mateo, Burlingame and Millbrae; sites eliminated for size, cost, transit, and/or parking
Ownership explored: Few viable purchase options; only candidate rejected due to poor parking
Finalists
• 520 S. El Camino Real - Excellent transit/amenities; costliest option • 1300 S. El Camino Real - Lowest cost; weaker amenities and transit • 400 S. El Camino Real - Best balance of cost, location and amenities 27 • Central location in downtown San
Mateo
• Easy access via 101, 280 and 92
• Caltrain/public transit corridor
• Walkable to amenities
• Full 14th floor, flexible layout
• Larger boardroom, flexible meeting
spaces, ability to host all-staff
meetings and community
events/trainings
• Ample parking, including EV
chargers
Recommended Option: 400 S. El Camino Real
28 Nearby Amenities
Summary of key lease terms: 400 S. El Camino Real
• Premise: 10,562 Rentable Square Feet (RSF)
• Commencement Date: upon substantial completion of tenant improvements, targeted for October 1, 2026
• Base Rent: $6.50/RSF, 3% escalation (slightly lower than current office space) • Term: 87 months (first 6 months abated)
• Tenant Improvements Allowance: $80/RSF, or approximately $850k • Renewal Option: one additional 5-year term
• Parking: 18 parking stalls; landlord to install 10 EV chargers exclusive for PCE use (PCE to reimburse landlord)
• Exterior Signage: Option to install exclusive exterior, building top signage for logo/brand awareness
31 Comparison of Economics
400 S ECR 1300 S ECR 520 S ECR Current Office
Rentable Square Feet (RSF) 10,562 9,842 9,000 7,660
Base Rent/RSF $6.50 $4.75 $9.80 ~$6.52
Usable Square Feet (USF) 9,579 7,217 7,269 7,034
Base Rent/USF $7.17 $6.48 $12.13 ~$7.11
Total Cost per Year (NPV) $714,000 $506,000 $1,015,000 ~$480,000 32 Comparison of Economics
33 0.00
2.00 4.00
6.00 8.00
10.00 12.00
220 Park
Rd
520 S.
ECR
287 Lorton993 Laurel 1440
Chapin
SamTrans 661 ECR 999 Main 100
Ellsworth
2075
Woodside
400 S.
ECR
805
Veterans
401
Warren
1300 S.
ECR
Base Rent ($/RSF)
Average: $7.41
December 2024 - May 2025
Workplace of Choice Committee:
Pre-work + Tour Sites
Recommendation
to Executive Committee
October 2025
October 2025
Board approval delegating
to CEO to negotiate lease
Sign lease, engage architect and
plan for tenant improvements
November 2025
Short list site selection based on EC feedback;
“trade papers” with short-listed properties
June - August 2025
Anticipated move-in date
October/November 2026
Obtain necessary permits
and plan for quick
construction period
January - May 2026
Discussion with Executive Committee
May 2025
Next steps & anticipated timeline
July 2026
Existing tenant vacates and
construction begins 34
Action
Approval for the Chief Executive Officer to complete lease negotiations and execute a lease agreement for office space at 400 S. El Camino Real, commencing October 1, 2026.
35 Board Members’ Reports
Adjournment