Welcome to
An end of year event to highlight industry-wide impacts and explore future trends.
December 13, 2023
Cupertino Community Hall
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
CHAIR GEORGE TYSON
Councilmember,
Los Altos Hills
Opening Welcome
An end of year event to highlight industry-wide impacts and explore future trends.
December 13, 2023
Cupertino Community Hall
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
State of Building
Decarbonization
PANAMA
BARTHOLOMY
Founder & Executive Director,
Building Decarbonization Coalition
An end of year event to highlight industry-wide impacts and explore future trends.
December 13, 2023
Cupertino Community Hall
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
California’s Clean
Energy Vision, an
Electric Fireside Chat
STATE SENATOR
JOSH BECKER
STATE SENATOR
DAVE CORTESE
An end of year event to highlight industry-wide impacts and explore future trends.
December 13, 2023
Cupertino Community Hall
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
PATHWAY TO 2045
ARNE OLSON
Partner, E3
Silicon Valley Clean Energy Reflect and Recharge Event
Cupertino, California
December 13, 2023
California’s Pathway to 2045
Arne Olson, Senior Partner
10 “Four Pillars” of decarbonization point to the crucial role of the electricity sector
Energy
efficiency &
conservation
Low carbon
electricity
Low carbon
fuels
Electrification
Buildings
Industry
Other
Buildings
Transportation
Existing loads Electrification
+60%
California Electric Loads under Deep Carbon Reductions California Electric Resources under Deep Carbon Reductions Clean electricity displaces fossil fuels as the main source of primary energy Results from Long Run Resource Adequacy Under Deep Decarbonization Pathways for California, funded by Calpine Corp 11 California’s aggressive climate goals will require
sustained action from every sector of the economy
Ramping up sales of electric vehicles and
building appliances
Energy efficiency in buildings is
doubled relative to 2015 (SB 350)
Electricity is min. 60%
renewable generation
100% of new furnaces are
heat pumps
100% of new cars and light
trucks and 93% of large
trucks are are ZEVs
Industry is fully
decarbonized through
a mix of H2, CCS, and
electrification
90-100% of fossil fuel
use is displaced with
biofuels, hydrogen
or synthetic fuels
Electricity is 100%
zero-carbon
generation
Carbon Dioxide Removal
strategies deployed to
reach net zero emissions
by 2045 or sooner
Low-carbon fuel standard
in transportation
California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Policy Milestones H2
Source: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/carbon-neutrality/carbon-neutrality-meetings-workshops 12 Adoption of light duty electric vehicles is accelerating rapidly Vehicle charging load will be become noticeable in the
NEXT FEW YEARS
Initial adoption likely to be concentrated in certain locations creating DISTRIBUTION CHALLENGES
Utilities will need to be ready for SMART CHARGING rates, panel installations, charging stations, etc.
https://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global-ev-sales-for-2022/ 13 One vision of California’s clean electricity future
CPUC IRP is showing large amounts of new solar and battery storage over the next ten years A diversity of resources will be needed over the long run • Onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, hydrogen, gas generation with carbon capture and sequestration 14 Increased digitization and onshoring are creating renewed industrial demand growth
November 2023: Georgia Power
increased 2031 load forecast by 40% or
6 GW compared to previous forecast
15 A changing climate is creating significant challenges for electric utilities
Many utilities in the West set new summertime PEAK
DEMAND RECORDS during heat dome event on June
29-30, 2021
Higher summer peaks CREATE CHALLENGES across
generation, transmission and distribution systems
DROUGHT AND WILDFIRES create additional
challenges with electricity supplies and delivery
16 Heat wave in September 2022 drove
electricity demand in California to
all-time highs
• Significantly higher than loads during
August 2020 blackout events
California’s peak demand forecast –
even under extreme weather – did
not capture magnitude of this event
September 6, 2022:
Extreme Weather, High Loads, and Customer Response
Aug 14 ‘20
Sept 6 ‘22
51,426 MW
All-time system metered peak
Statewide text message
prompts conservation
and 2 GW load reduction
+5 GW
~58,000 MW
Gross load peak
17 September 6, 2022:
Resource Performance During Net Peak
CAISO System Operations on September 6, 2022
(MW)
Generation During Hour of Highest Net Load
(MW)
Natural gas: 26 GW
+1 GW vs. Aug 14, 2020
Nuclear: 2 GW
Diablo Canyon Power Plant
Imports: 8 GW
+1 GW vs. Aug 14, 2020
Primarily from (1) PNW and (2) AZ
Hydro: 5 GW
Similar levels to Aug 14, 2020
Storage: 2 GW
+2 GW vs. Aug 2020
Solar: < 1 GW
Wind: 2 GW
The net peak period in summer evenings, the
greatest challenge for maintaining reliability
18 California in 2050 at a glance:
93 GW peak demand
90% carbon-free generation
• 150 GW solar PV
• 21 GW wind
• 8 GW hydro
• 5 GW geothermal
• 75 GW energy storage
35 GW reliability need for
firm capacity (40% of peak)
90% GHG reduction
relative to 2005 levels
Statistics and visuals adapted from High
Electrification scenario in Long-Run Resource
Adequacy under Deep Decarbonization
Pathways for California
The essential role of firm generation in a low carbon
grid: California in 2050
Weekly Generation Mix
(GWh) Most weeks of the year, the supply of carbon-free resources meets or exceeds electric system demands…
Hourly Generation for a December Week (2007 Weather Conditions) (MW) …but during winter periods with prolonged renewable droughts when storage is exhausted, firm resources are needed to ensure reliability 25-35 GW
natural gas capacity
Legend:
19 Achieving a fully zero-carbon grid will require new technologies FIRM, CARBON-FREE RESOURCES will be crucial for
reliability if gas resources are retired
Candidates include:
❑ Fossil generation with carbon capture and sequestration ❑ New nuclear (e.g., Small Modular Reactors)
❑ Enhanced geothermal
❑ Very long-duration storage energy storage
❑ Clean fuels such as renewable natural gas, hydrogen or synthetic gas
These technologies have not yet been proven to be
safe, resilient, and cost-effective and are NOT YET
COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE
ONE OR MORE MUST EMERGE to enable a reliable,
zero-carbon grid
Thank you!
Arne Olson, Senior Partner ([email protected])
An end of year event to highlight industry-wide impacts and explore future trends.
December 13, 2023
Cupertino Community Hall
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023
CCA Role & Impact
BETH
VAUGHAN
Executive Director, CalCCA
Silicon Valley
Clean Energy
Reflect and Recharge
December 13, 2023
Beth Vaughan
CEO, CalCCA
CalCCA Interactive CCA Map & Address Lookup:
https://cal-cca.org/cca-map/
CCA Launch Timeline
25 Procurement
Integrated Resource Planning
Central Procurement
Diablo Canyon RA, RPS VAMO
Integrated Energy Policy Report
SB 100
Reliability
Resource Adequacy (Slice of Day,
Scarcity, Compliance)
Integrated Resource Planning
(Project delays, interconnection,
infrastructure) CAISO
Rates
PCIA
IOUs General Rate Cases
Affordability
Demand Flexibility / Income
Graduated Fixed Charge
Load Management Standards
Financial
Financial Security Requirement
Provider of Last Resort
Advice Letters
Hedging Data Requests
Core
Policy Issues
CCA LONG-TERM PPA STATS
(Annual announcement: November 2, 2023)
CCA PPAs equate to:
• Almost 14 GW of renewables + energy
storage
• More than 5,300 MW operational
• More than $25 billion committed by
CCAs to build/operate
• Support for 29,000 construction jobs
26 https://cal-cca.org/cca-renewable-energy-map-and-list-of-ppas/ Progress Toward State Goals
Data Sources: CPUC MTR Progress Report, November 6, 2023 27 Tight RA Market = High RA Prices
A 6 GW drop in net RA
supply over 2019-21
accompanied by doubling
of the average RA price
Data Sources: CalCCA RA Stack, CPUC Resource Adequacy
Reports, FERC EQRs
28 White Paper: California’s
Constrained RA Market: Ratepayers
Left Standing in a Game of Musical
Chairs
https://cal-cca.org/resource-adequacy
Save the Date!
29 Thank you!
An end of year event to highlight industry-wide impacts and explore future trends.
December 13, 2023
Cupertino Community Hall
REFLECT & RECHARGE 2023