• Subtitle
New SV Clean Energy
PowerPoint Template
Integrated Decarbonization
Roadmap: Pathways, Targets, and
Priorities
March 27th, 2026
Item 3
PRESENTATION
2 Discussion Objectives
1. Review program budget projections.
2. Review progress towards electrification goals and SVCE's impact.
3. Discuss prioritization strategy for program budget scenarios.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
3 SVCE is developing two interdependent strategic
frameworks: Financial Levers & Decarb Roadmap.
Dec 2025: Board
Workshop
Values and
Priorities
March 2026:
Financial Levers
Context Setting
and Scenarios
Today: Decarb
Roadmap
Context, Modeling,
and Allocation
June 2026:
Financial Levers
Board Direction
August 2026:
Decarb Roadmap
Strategic
Recommendations
• SVCE core values
• Decarb program
tradeoffs
• Revenue projections
• Budget prioritization
options (levers)
• Example levers
strategy
• Program budget
projections
• Progress toward
goals
• Example re-prioritization and
impacts
• Board provides
direction on
changes in
budget trajectory
• Decarb targets
• Budget priorities
and guiding
principles
• Short-to-long term
strategic
recommendations
Item 3
PRESENTATION
$0M
$10M
$20M
$30M
$40M
$50M
$60M
$70M
$80M
$90M
$100M
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Current Program Budget Plan (2026-2040)
(illustrative)
Programs Fund Allocation Revenue (2% of total sales) General Programs Fund 4 Program budget – current planning forecast.
2026-2029: Higher budget
(~$23M/yr)
Spend down program fund from
$100M to $25M while adding 2%
of annual revenue (~$6M/yr) 2030-2035: Medium Budget
(~$11M/yr)
Spend down remaining $25M
program fund while adding 2%
of annual revenue
2036+: Lower Budget
(~$6M/yr)
No remaining program fund
allocation, budget based on
2% of annual revenue
Item 3
PRESENTATION
5 SVCE’s holistic program portfolio delivers a variety
of benefits.
Program
Category Example Programs
Rebates and
Incentives
Home Rebates, Full-Service
Home Upgrades
Community
Investments
Member Agency Grants, Income-Qualified Home Upgrades
Ecosystem
Improvement
Reach Codes, Contractor
Training, Permit Streamlining
Research and
Innovation
Innovation Onramp, Rate Pilot
Programs, Demand Flex pilots
Education and
Engagement Dream Home, eHub
Rebates and
Incentives, 62%
Community
Reinvestment,
13%
Ecosystem
Improvements,
9%
Research and
Innovation, 8%
Unallocated, 6%
Education and
Engagement, 2%
Average Annual Program Budget Allocation
(2026-2030)
Item 3
PRESENTATION
6 Progress towards electrification
targets and SVCE's Impact
Item 3
PRESENTATION
Climate targets require electrifying >1M machines
by 2045.
• 421,000 ICE vehicles converted to electric vehicles2
• Electrify 100% of commercial vehicle miles traveled (about 400,000 miles) 1 • Electrify residential appliances that include: 153k space heaters, 199k water heaters, 166k stoves, 81k dryers, fireplaces and spa/pool pumps3 • Electrify 5,500 Commercial Buildings & 1,700 Industrial Facilities that include: 11k furnaces, 8k water heaters, & 1.4k boilers3 • Switch to 100% carbon-free electricity sources (including DA accounts) Sources:
1. SVCE 2024 GHG Inventory
2. SVCE’s Vehicles Dashboard
3. SVCE Market Segmentation Study
7 Item 3
PRESENTATION
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Cumulative Installed HPWHs
Projected SVCE Territory HPWH Installs by 2045
Market Sales (Baseline) Statewide Building Codes
Air District Rules Member Agency Code Enhancements
SVCE Rebates and Incentives SVCE Ecosystem Improvement
Innovation and Technology Improvements Targets 8
HPWH requires more innovation or funding, growth
driven by policy; SVCE plays critical role.
HPWH Pathway:
• Based on best
available market
studies, forecasts,
and program data.
• Conservative Air
District compliance
(starts at 20%) grows
slowly.
• Current SVCE
program budget.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Cumulative HP HVAC Installs
Projected SVCE Territory HP HVAC Installs by 2045
Market Sales (Baseline) Statewide Building Codes
Air District Rules Member Agency Code Enhancements
SVCE Rebates and Incentives SVCE Ecosystem Improvement
Targets
Consumer demand is
stronger for HVAC compared
to HPWH as HP HVAC is
more cost competitive and
delivers real individual value
today.
Statewide, Air District, and
local polices key to adoption.
Pathway reflects rebates
ending after 2033.
9 HP HVAC is on track; policy + AC demand key driver;
SVCE support can phase out sooner.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
0 100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Cumulative Registered EVs
Projected SVCE Territory Light-duty Electric Vehicles by 2045 Market Sales (Baseline) Statewide Building Codes
Member Agency Code Enhancements SVCE Rebates and Incentives SVCE Ecosystem Improvement National Market Changes
Targets 10
EVs have high uncertainty due to recent policy
changes; SVCE’s role is important but less influential.
Consumer demand supported
by policies are the main driver in
EV adoption.
Statewide building code and
SVCE programs help grow
adoption by increasing access
to charging.
Recommitments to EVs at a
federal level are likely necessary
to meet 2045 targets.
Pathway based on current
budget.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
11 Looking ahead:
How could SVCE prioritize investments
under different conditions?
Item 3
PRESENTATION
SVCE: Local, leading-edge, pragmatic, and
decarbonization focused.
At the December 2025 Special Board of Directors Workshop:
Directors leaned into the story of SVCE as local agency responsible for catalyzing the region’s decarbonization. The agency should embody an innovative spirit to provide creative solutions, while remaining pragmatic and focused on efforts that lead to cost-effective results.
When deciding between programs that lead to rapid electrification and those that might be slower, the attendees leaned towards focusing more on rapid results. (This is a trade-off we will grapple with in more detail through the roadmap.)
Attendees recognized that not everyone in SVCE’s territory has the same decision-making agency when it comes to decarbonization, and suggested SVCE focus more on groups in a position to act, such as property owners compared to renters and tenants.
This is initial input that staff are building early recommendations on. We will continue to grapple and discuss tradeoffs in more detail as we develop the roadmap.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
13 Key Takeaways from program
prioritization discussions:
• All groups put majority of funds
into incentives and rebates.
• Strong support for maintaining
local policy support and
ecosystem improvements.
• Less clarity on innovation and %
of incentives focused on low-income vs. market-rate customers.
Three workshops help inform scenarios: community
leaders, member agency staff, and SVCE staff.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
Disclosure Notice: SVCE can't do it all.
14 1. Limited financial resources
(SVCE doesn’t have the budget)
Example: Rebate cost for residential water
heaters = $30M per year
2. Limited influence (SVCE doesn’t
directly control many of the most
powerful levers)
Example: Types of EVs manufactured
Item 3
PRESENTATION
15 SVCE Investments:
1. Catalyze adoption by reducing friction.
2. Serve as a force multiplier to maximize
beneficial impacts of electrification.
3. Deliver tangible community benefits.
SVCE investments play a critical role in
market transformation.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
16 • Maximize electrification under
any conditions.
• Some programs have growth
limits (e.g. local policy
investments).
• A balanced portfolio allows
SVCE to pivot, adapt,
expand, and contract.
Given high uncertainty, SVCE needs to ensure an adaptable structure that delivers impact under all conditions.
A.I.
Policy
Changes
Market
Conditions
Item 3
PRESENTATION
17 • Business-as-Usual (BAU) – Starts with high budget and slowly decreases to low budget over ~10 years (as currently planned)
• High Budget – Maintain today's spending levels (e.g. result of unexpected revenue influx) • Medium Budget – Decrease today's budget by half starting in 2027 (e.g. slower rate of program reserves spending and no new funding added from revenues) • Low Budget – Decrease today's budget by 3/4 starting in 2027 (e.g. much slower rate of program reserves spending and no new funding added from revenues) Today's discussion is about impacts of budget changes and program priorities, NOT about mechanisms to change budget or impact to SVCE reserves. The June financial levers conversation will focus on organizational impact of changing program funds.
Fluctuating budget is status quo for SVCE and
scenario planning is a key rationale for the decarb
roadmap.
As part of the financial levers, the Board could decide to make changes to programs budget between 2026 and 2030. The following slides explore impact of three possible changes to inform later decision-making.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
$0M
$5M
$10M
$15M
$20M
$25M
$30M
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Annual Program Budget ($M)
Comparison of Program Budget Scenarios (2026-2040)
18 Program budget – current planning forecast.
Higher budget ($24M/yr)
Medium Budget ($12M/yr)
Lower Budget ($6M/yr)
Business-as-Usual
Item 3
PRESENTATION
19 Direct financial support remains the cornerstone of
SVCE’s programs portfolio in all budget scenarios.
Program Categories High Budget Medium Budget Low Budget Rebates and Incentives
$ $ $ $
$ $ $ $
$ $ $ $
$ $ $ $
$ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Community Investments $ $ $ $ -
Ecosystem Improvement $ $ $ $ $ $
Research and Innovation $ $ $ $
Education and Engagement $ $ $
Note: Each $ equates to $0.5M–$1M per year.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
HP HVAC hits targets under all but low investment
scenario, HPWH only in the high scenario, EV never.
20 Key Takeaways:
• SVCE can have
significant impact by
maintaining focus on
direct incentives and
ecosystem
improvements in all
scenarios.
• Higher budget means
more electrification
over time.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
HPWH HP HVAC EV
% of Machines Electrified by 2045
Technology Pathway Comparison: Proximity to Hitting 2045 Target Business-as-Usual (BAU) High Budget Scenario
Medium Budget Scenario Low Budget Scenario
Counter-Factual (without SVCE)
Item 3
PRESENTATION
The content we’re developing now will be presented to
the Board in April.
*Timeline subject to change
BOD Study
Sessions: values
and priorities
Dec. 2025
MAWG and
Community
Leaders
workshops
Feb. 2025
Board info item:
Targets and
Pathways
Apr. 2026
Stakeholder
expert
interviews
Board study
session: strategic
recommendations
May 2026 Aug. 2026
EC discussion:
Targets and
Pathways
Mar. 2025
EC
presentation:
reporting and
metrics
Jun. 2026
21 Board item:
final roadmap
for adoption
Oct. 2026
Item 3
PRESENTATION
22 Discussion Questions
• Questions about key numbers?
• Reactions to example prioritization?
• What additional info/data you would want to see?
Item 3
PRESENTATION
23 APPENDIX
Item 3
PRESENTATION
24 Rebates, incentives, and ecosystem improvements
remain the portfolio’s core offerings under all
conditions.
SVCE Program Category
Current
Budget
($23M/yr)
High Budget
($24M/yr)
Medium Budget
($12M/yr)
Low Budget
($6M/yr)
Rebates and Incentives $14.5M $16.0M $8.0M $4.0M
Community Investments $3.1M $2.5M $0.6M -
Ecosystem Improvement $2.1M $3.0M $1.5M $1.0M
Research and Innovation $1.8M $1.5M $0.7M $0.6M
Unallocated $1.4M - - -
Education and
Engagement $0.4M $1.0M $0.7M $0.5M
Total: $23.3M
Item 3
PRESENTATION
25 SVCE’s holistic program portfolio delivers a variety of benefits.
SVCE Program
Category Example Programs Benefits
Rebates and Incentives Home Rebates, Full-Service Home
Upgrades Direct reduction in upfront cost of electrification Community Investments Member Agency Grants, Affordable
Housing DI
Delivers investments into community priority areas, creates tangible
Ecosystem
Improvement
Reach Codes, Contractor Training,
Permit Streamlining
Reduces friction, improves cost effectiveness, transforms the market
Research and
Innovation
Innovation Onramp, Rate Pilot Programs,
Demand Flex pilots
Identifies and test solutions to key barriers to catalyze adoption; sometimes big win, sometimes no win
Unallocated - -
Education and
Engagement Dream Home, eHub Spreads the word about electrification, clarifies misconception, builds energy Item 3
PRESENTATION
What is “Ecosystem Improvement”?
SVCE Ecosystem Improvement investment includes:
• Education and training for building officials and permitting staff. • Rebates and incentives supporting customer compliance with Air District rules. • Contractor training to increase workforce, lower upfront project costs, and increase code compliance.
• Permit streamlining to help reduce unpermitted equipment installs and lower total project costs.
• Supporting Member Agencies in customer and contractor education and resources leading to increased awareness and likelihood of compliance with Building codes and Air District rules. 26 As a public agency with technical knowledge and expertise, SVCE is uniquely positioned to support building code compliance and reduce friction points in project implementation.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
27 Key Assumptions and Methodology Overview
Methodology was built on data and published studies whenever possible, and conservative but realistic estimates where needed.
Category Source
Market Sales (Baseline) California Heat Pump Partnership Blueprint (2025) CalMTA Induction Cooking Market Characterization Report (2024) BloombergNEF Vehicle Sales Outlook (2025)
CalMTA Commercial Rooftop Units Market Characterization Report (2025) SVCE Programs SVCE 2025 Programs impact data
Statewide Building Code Housing and Community Development (HCD) RHNA Data with SME assumptions for new construction compliance
Air District Bay Area Air District Rules 9-4 and 9-6 with SME assumptions for starting compliance and annual compliance growth
Member Agency Codes City of Mountain View reach code forecast Electric Readiness and 2-Way AC ordinances with SME assumptions for starting compliance and annual compliance growth
Policy Compliance Support SVCE SME assumptions
Item 3
PRESENTATION
Consumer demand alone won't achieve targets.
Sources:
1. California Heat Pump Partnership Blueprint (2025)
2. CalMTA Induction Cooking Market Characterization Report (2024)
3. BloombergNEF Vehicle Sales Outlook (2025)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Water Heating Space Heating Cooking Vehicles
Percent Total Machines Electrified
Percentage of Total Machines Electrified by 2045 through Natural Market Adoption
28 Item 3
PRESENTATION
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Cumulative HP HVAC Installs
Comparison of Projected HP HVAC Pathways to 2045
Current Budget Hitting Targets 50% Programs Budget Cut Targets 29 HP HVAC Pathways Comparison
Key Takeaways:
• 2045 target likely to be
met by current
program strategies due
to strong market
support and well-established
technology.
• Continued rebate and
incentive support
needed through 2032
to support Air District
rule implementation.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Cumulative HPWH Installs
Comparison of Projected HPWH Pathways to 2045
Current Budget Hitting Targets 50% Programs Budget Cut Targets 30 HPWH Pathways Comparison
Key Takeaways:
• 2045 target could be
met through increased
program investment
supporting on-time Air
District rule
implementation,
research and
innovation, and policy
support.
• We are unlikely to
reach our target
without additional
strategic investment.
Item 3
PRESENTATION
31 EV Pathways Comparison by Innovation Level
Key Takeaways:
• Customer demand and
technology innovation
are key drivers to EV
adoption, creating high
uncertainty in adoption
projections.
• High innovation (such
as import of cheaper
EV models) could
rapidly increase
adoption.
• Low innovation and
high tariffs could result
in missing targets.
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Total Cumulative Registered EVs
Comparison of Projected EV Pathways to 2045
Low Innovation Medium Innovation High Innovation Targets Item 3
PRESENTATION
• Subtitle
New SV Clean Energy
PowerPoint Template
Education Initiatives
2026 Update
Executive Committee Meeting
March 27, 2026
Juliette Pascual, Community Engagement Specialist
Item 4
PRESENTATION
Overview of existing education
initiatives
Education Nonprofit Pilot Grant
update
Student sponsorship approach
Information
Item
2 Item 4
PRESENTATION
EmPowerSV Scholarship Competition
Education Nonprofit Grant
Student Sponsorships
3 Initiatives to
Highlight
3 Item 4
PRESENTATION
4 EmpowerSV Scholarship Competition
• 2026 Art Competition
• Allow students to creatively express their
passion for climate solutions
• Art will be used for community
engagement
• Submissions due April 24
• $10k to be awarded across 3rd – 12th
grades
• Elementary – sticker design
• Middle – poster display
• High – headquarters art feature
Item 4
PRESENTATION
5 • 4 Nonprofits
• Supporting youth and educators on climate
change solutions while incorporating the
SVCE mission
• $96,490 committed
• $39k spent
• Projects in development
• Teacher support
• Community workshops
• Green career development
Education Nonprofit Pilot Grant
Pilot grant program for education-focused nonprofits providing climate education Item 4
PRESENTATION
6 • Formerly Education Fund
• 5th Cohort
• 17 Applications
• 13 Sponsored Student Projects
• $70,227
• K-12 students in eight SVCE
communities
Student Sponsorships
Supporting student-led projects that address the SVCE mission in local community • Five cohorts since program began
in 2020
• $245k distributed
• Projects include student
experiments, school events, art
installations, and more
• Projects must have an outreach
component
• Formerly Education Fund
Item 4
PRESENTATION
7 Sponsorship Program Transition
How can we administer education funds better and create a clear process to evaluate impact? • Create one sponsorship program for schools and local
nonprofits to receive funding for clean energy education • Unify metrics, timeline, and application process
• Focus projects on educator support, community workshops, and green careers
Item 4
PRESENTATION
8 Student Sponsorships
Student projects with teacher
advisor or nonprofit fiscal
sponsor support
SVCE mission-related projects
with outreach component
Fall/winter application cycle
Approximately $50k budget per
year; up to $10k per project
Est. 2020
Education Program Evolution
Item 4
PRESENTATION
9 Student Sponsorships Education Nonprofit Pilot
Student projects with teacher
advisor or nonprofit fiscal
sponsor support
Nonprofits
SVCE mission-related projects
with outreach component
SVCE mission-related educator
support, community workshops,
green careers
Fall/winter application cycle Spring application cycle
Approximately $50k budget per
year; up to $10k per project
$100k pilot budget; $20k - $30k
per project
Est. 2020 Est. 2025
Education Program Evolution
Item 4
PRESENTATION
10 Student Sponsorships Education Nonprofit Pilot Combined Program Student projects with teacher
advisor or nonprofit fiscal
sponsor support
Nonprofits School or nonprofit applicants
SVCE mission-related projects
with outreach component
SVCE mission-related educator
support, community workshops,
green careers
SVCE mission-related educator
support, community workshops,
green careers
Fall/winter application cycle Spring application cycle Fall application cycle—at the beginning of the school year
Approximately $50k budget per
year; up to $10k per project
$100k pilot budget; $20k - $30k
per project
$150k pilot budget; up to $20k
per project
Est. 2020 Est. 2025 Launch in 2026
Education Program Evolution
Item 4
PRESENTATION
11 Next Steps
• Education Nonprofit Grants—projects will finish this summer through October
• Solicit feedback from past SVCE education program participants on program timing, application, and challenges
• Ask: Scholarship competition promotion—submissions due April 24
Item 4
PRESENTATION
Appendix
12 Item 4
PRESENTATION
13 Education Nonprofit Grant Recipients
Climate Action Pathways for Schools (CAPS) - Morgan Hill • CAPS Internships
• Partnership with MHUSD
• Design and implement a comprehensive
building science training and workforce
development program for up to 20
MUHSD high school students during the
academic year 2025-2026.
Item 4
PRESENTATION
14 Education Nonprofit Grant Recipients
Acterra – Mountain View, Sunnyvale
• Acterra’s Student Ambassador Program
(ASAP)
• Empowering high school students to
address climate change impacts by
providing them with after-school
environmental education and building
their leadership skills through trainings
and community projects.
Item 4
PRESENTATION
15 Education Nonprofit Grant Recipients
Compass Point Mentorship (CP Mentorship) - Santa Clara County • Sustainable Energy Youth Commission (SEYC)
and Summer Camp Program for students
(ages 7-18)
• Conduct leadership training workshops for
SEYC, pilot 4 week-long sustainable energy
summer camps, organize a community-wide green transportation challenge, and organize a youth-led sustainable street
food festival
Item 4
PRESENTATION
16 Education Nonprofit Grant Recipients
Silicon Valley Youth Climate Action (SVYCA) - Santa Clara County • SVYCA Summer Program – Leadership
Academy and Youth Climate Summit (ages
13-22)
• Expand the Summit's impact and
increase community climate education
and leadership for SVYCA city action
teams working on climate solutions and
clean energy initiatives.
Item 4
PRESENTATION
• Subtitle
New SV Clean Energy
PowerPoint Template
HQ Update
March 27, 2026
Item 5
PRESENTATION
2 Updated Headquarters Timeline (Subject to Change)
Outline of the building’s next steps
2026 Q3 2027 Q1
• Construction
began (Feb)
2026 Q2 2026 Q4
• Current lease
ends (July)
• Move-in office
(July)
• Move-in Board
(August)
• HQ operational
• Assess usage
by staff and
BOD
• Host holiday
event
• Explore Phase 2
(Community
Space)
Item 5
PRESENTATION
3 Trenching Work
Item 5
PRESENTATION
4 Structural Work
Item 5
PRESENTATION
5 Structural Work
Item 5
PRESENTATION
6 Structural Work
Item 5
PRESENTATION
7 HQ Layout
Item 5
PRESENTATION
8 • Furniture Purchase
• Try to use all existing furniture
with focus on workspaces and
conference rooms
• Buy new additional furniture for
conference rooms and
workspaces; common spaces
• Seek to purchase used
furniture for common spaces
and low use areas
• Phase 2
• Executive Committee agreed
to move this decision to FY
2027
Next Steps
While the building is under construction
Item 5
PRESENTATION