an impediment to additional residential development in the planning period. However, pursuant to Government Code section 65583.2, subdivision (g)(2), the City must make findings, based on substantial evidence, (as part of an adoption resolution) that the use is likely to be discontinued during the planning period. Otherwise, an existing use shall be presumed to impede additional residential development.
Pursuant to Government Code section 65583.3, subdivision (b), the City must utilize standards, forms, and definitions adopted by HCD when preparing the sites inventory and submit an electronic version of the sites inventory. While the City has submitted an electronic version of the sites inventory, if changes occur or have occurred since submittal, any future adopted versions of the element must also submit the electronic version of the sites inventory.
Several federal, state, and regional funding programs consider housing element compliance as an eligibility or ranking criteria. For example, the CalTrans Senate Bill (SB) 1 Sustainable Communities grant, the Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities programs, and HCD’s Permanent Local Housing Allocation consider housing element compliance and/or annual reporting requirements pursuant to Government Code section 65400. With a compliant housing element, the City will meet housing element requirements for these and other funding sources.
For your information, some general plan element updates are triggered by housing element adoption. HCD reminds the City to consider timing provisions and welcomes the opportunity to provide assistance. For information, please see the Technical Advisories issued by the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research at:
https://www.opr.ca.gov/planning/general-plan/guidelines.html.
HCD appreciates the hard work and dedication of the housing element update team in preparation of the City’s housing element and looks forward to receiving the City’s adopted housing element. If you have any questions or need additional technical assistance, please contact Emily Hovda, of our staff, at [email protected].
Sincerely,
Paul McDougall
Senior Program Manager
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Final Initial Study
City of Ceres
6th Cycle 2023- 2031
Housing Element Update
Fe
bruary 4, 2025
Prepared by
EMC Planning Group
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This document was produced on recycled paper.
FINAL INITIAL STUDY
CITY OF CERES
6TH CYCLE 2023-2031
HOUSING ELEMENT UPDATE
PREPARED FOR
City of Ceres
Lea Simvoulakis, Community Development Director
2220 Magnolia Street
Ceres, CA 95307
Tel 209.538.5778
[email protected]
PREPARED BY
EMC Planning Group Inc.
601 Abrego Street
Monterey, CA 93940
Tel 831.649.1799
Fax 831.649.8399
Shoshana Lutz, Senior Planner
[email protected]
www.emcplanning.com
February 4, 2025
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EMC Planning Group Inc.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A. BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................... 1 B. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED ............................................... 9 C. DETERMINATION .............................................................................................................. 10 D. EVALUATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ............................................................. 11
1. Aesthetics .............................................................................................................................. 13
2. Agriculture and Forest Resources...................................................................................... 16
3. Air Quality ............................................................................................................................. 18
4. Biological Resources ............................................................................................................ 21
5. Cultural Resources ............................................................................................................... 25
6. Energy .................................................................................................................................... 27
7. Geology and Soils ................................................................................................................ 29
8. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ............................................................................................... 33
9. Hazards and Hazardous Materials ..................................................................................... 35
10. Hydrology and Water Quality ............................................................................................ 39
11. Land Use and Planning ....................................................................................................... 43
12. Mineral Resources ................................................................................................................ 45
13. Noise ...................................................................................................................................... 46
14. Population and Housing ..................................................................................................... 48
15. Public Services ...................................................................................................................... 50
16. Recreation ............................................................................................................................. 53
17. Transportation ...................................................................................................................... 54
18. Tribal Cultural Resources ................................................................................................... 58
19. Utilities and Service Systems .............................................................................................. 59
20. Wildfire .................................................................................................................................. 62
21. Mandatory Findings of Significance .................................................................................. 63 E. SOURCES ............................................................................................................................. 66
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Appendices
Appendix A Draft 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element (dated January 10, 2025) Figures
Figure 1 Location Map .................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2 Site Inventory Location Areas ........................................................................................ 7 Tables
Table 1 Housing Unit Opportunity Sites Summary ................................................................... 3
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Section A Background 1 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 A. B ACKGROUND
Setting
The City of Ceres is located within central Stanislaus County, south of the City of Modesto. Ceres is approximately 29 miles southeast of the City of Stockton and approximately 30 miles northwest of the City of Merced. The Tuolumne River is located along the northern boundary of the city limits and State Route 99 runs through Ceres and connects it to other communities to the north and south.
Figure 1, Location Map, presents the relationship between the City of Ceres and nearby communities, as well as the state highway system.
Background
The City of Ceres (City) has prepared a draft 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element dated January 10, 2025 (hereinafter referred to as “Housing Element Update”) (Appendix A) that covers the planning period 2023 through 2031 consistent with the requirements under California state law.
Part of the Housing Element Update requires that the City identify adequate housing sites to accommodate the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) assigned to the City by the California Department of Housing and Development (HCD) and the Stanislaus Council of Governments (StanCOG). The RHNA identified for the City’s 6 th Cycle Housing Element is
3,361 units.
Project Title City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031
Housing Element Update
Lead Agency Contact Person
and Phone Number
City of Ceres
Lea Simvoulakis,
Community Development Director
209-538-5774
Date Prepared February 4, 2025
Study Prepared by EMC Planning Group Inc.
601 Abrego Street
Monterey, CA 93940
Project Location City of Ceres
Project Sponsor Name and Address City of Ceres
220 Magnolia Street
Ceres, CA 95307
General Plan Designation Various
Zoning Various
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Section A Background 2 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Methodology
This environmental analysis relies on the earlier analyses in the Ceres General Plan 2035 Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063 (“General Plan EIR”), the West Landing Specific Plan Project – Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH No. 2008122087 (“West Landing Specific Plan EIR”), and the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report (SCH#2017012063) (“Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR”), pursuant to CEQA Guidelines section 15168(c). Section 15168(c) provides that “later activities [here, the Housing Element Update] in the program [here, the Ceres General Plan 2035 (“General Plan”)] must be examined in light of the program EIR to determine whether an additional environmental document must be prepared.” Section 15168(c)(2) provides: “If the agency finds that pursuant to Section 15162, no subsequent EIR would be required, the agency can approve the activity as being within the scope of the project covered by the program EIR, and no new environmental document would be required.” The section further explains that the “within the scope” inquiry is a factual question that the agency determines based on substantial evidence. While no specific format is required to document the agency’s determination, an initial study checklist provides a useful, familiar format to explain the agency’s reasoning and evidence. As explained in detail for each environmental resource area herein, there is no evidence that development under the Housing Element Update would result in any new or more severe significant environmental impacts than previously determined in the General Plan EIR. Therefore, this analysis supports a determination under CEQA Guidelines section 15162 that no subsequent or supplemental EIR is necessary for the Housing Element Update.
The General Plan EIR evaluated the potential growth for up to 17,500 residential units at buildout (i.e., year 2035) of the General Plan. This includes housing units anticipated in the West Landing Specific Plan area (3,635 units) and the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan area (372 units).
Additionally, since the adoption of the General Plan in 2018 through 2020, the City has permitted 79 units throughout Ceres (California Department of Housing and Community Development 2025) and from 2021 to 2024, the City has permitted 306 units. This results in a remainder of 13,108 housing units anticipated by the General Plan, which covers the housing and population growth projections that are identified in the City’s 6
th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element.
Description of Project
The draft Housing Element Update has been prepared to comply with the state’s housing goals set forth in the Government Code. Adoption of this element would amend the City’s General Plan. The current draft Housing Element Update includes 3,673 housing units, which is 312 more housing units than required to meet the City’s RHNA. However, accessory dwelling units are not required to be evaluated under CEQA and there are 306 pipeline projects that would have already undergone environmental review and have been approved. Therefore, this initial study will only evaluate a total of 3,193 housing units. Appendix C of the City’s Housing Element Update provides details and capacity estimates for each of the parcels that make up the City’s housing sites inventory. Table 1, Housing Units breakdown, provides a breakdown of the units required by RHNA, the units evaluated in the Housing Element Update, and the units evaluated in this environmental document.
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Section A Background 3 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Table 1 Housing Unit Opportunity Sites Summary
Location/Type Units
West Landing Specific Plan 2,631
Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan 372
Various (throughout Ceres) 670
Subtotal 3,673
Existing Units1 -44
Accessory Dwelling Units2 -130
Pipeline Project3 -306
Total Evaluated in this Initial Study 3,193
SOURCE: EMC Planning Group 2025
NOTES:
1. Existing units have already been constructed and, therefore, would have already gone through environmental review.
2. Accessory dwelling units are exempt from CEQA.
3. Pipeline projects are those that have already provided all required documentation and supporting information to the City and have been entered into the City’s tracking system.
Figure 2, Site Inventory Location Areas, shows an overview of the proposed sites inventory map within Ceres. Development of these housing units could result in a population increase of approximately 11,176 (3,193 housing units x 3.5 persons per household) (California Department of Finance 2024).
The Whitmore Ranch and West Landing housing sites (identified as Sites #1 and #2 on Figure 2), both have existing commercial uses that will be discontinued with implementation of the Housing Element Update.
Other Public Agencies Whose Approval is Required
California Department of Housing and Community Development Have California Native American tribes traditionally and culturally affiliated with the project area requested consultation pursuant to Public Resources Code section 21080.3.1? If so, is there a plan for consultation that includes, for example, the determination of significance of impacts to tribal cultural resources, procedures regarding confidentiality, etc. ? The City sent out letters offering consultation to local tribes traditionally and culturally affiliated with the City on July 31, 2023. The City has not received responses from any tribe as of February 2024 (Lea Simvoulakis, email message, December 27, 2024).
Note: Conducting consultation early in the CEQA process allows tribal governments, lead agencies, and project proponents to discuss the level of environmental review, identify and address potential adverse impacts to tribal cultural resources, and reduce the potential for delay and conflict in the environmental review process. (See Public Resources Code section 21080.3.2.) Information may also be available from the California Native American
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Section A Background 4 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Heritage Commission’s Sacred Lands File per Public Resources Code section 5097.96 and the California Historical Resources Information System administered by the California Office of Historic Preservation. Please also note that Public Resources Code section 21082.3(c) contains provisions specific to confidentiality.
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Project Location
Ceres
Modesto
UV99
UV99
UV99
UV132UV132
Tuolumne River
Source: ESRI 2025
Figure 1
Location Map
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update Initial Study 0 2 miles
Project
Location
£¤101
k
Salinas
UV152
Ceres
Merced
Turlock
UV99
UV99
§¨¦5
UV120
UV4Stockton
Modesto
§¨¦5
UV99
Regional Location
Ceres City Limit
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Section A Background 6 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
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0 4000 feet
Source: Stanislaus County GIS 2024
Figure 2
Site Inventory Location Areas
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update Initial Study 1 2
3 6
5 4
7 8
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 16
17 18
19 21
20 22
Ceres City Limit
Ceres City Parcels
High Density Residential
Medium Density Residential
Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential
Whitmore Ranch
West Landing
Mixed-Use
E. Hatch Rd.
UV99
UV99
UV99
Mitchell Rd.
Richland Ave.
E. Whitmore Ave.
Crows Landing Rd.
Service Rd.
Hackett Rd.
Morgan Rd.
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Section A Background 8 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
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Section B Environmental Factors Potentially Affected 9 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 B. E NVIRONMENTAL FACTORS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED
The environmental factors checked below would be potentially affected by this project, involving at least one impact that is a “Potentially Significant Impact” as indicated by the checklist on the following pages.
☐ Aesthetics ☐ Greenhouse Gas Emissions ☐ Public Services ☐ Agriculture and Forestry
Resources
☐ Hazards & Hazardous
Materials
☐ Recreation
☐ Air Quality ☐ Hydrology/Water Quality ☐ Transportation ☐ Biological Resources ☐ Land Use/Planning ☐ Tribal Cultural Resources ☐ Cultural Resources ☐ Mineral Resources ☐ Utilities/Service Systems ☐ Energy ☐ Noise ☐ Wildfire
☐ Geology/Soils ☐ Population/Housing ☐ Mandatory Findings of Significance
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Section C Determination 10 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 C. D ETERMINATION
On the basis of this initial evaluation:
☐ I find that the proposed project COULD NOT have a significant effect on the environment, and a NEGATIVE DECLARATION will be prepared.
☐ I find that although the proposed project could have a significant effect on the environment, there will not be a significant effect in this case because revisions in the project have been made by or agreed to by the project proponent. A MITIGATED NEGATIVE DECLARATION will be prepared.
☐ I find that the proposed project MAY have a significant effect on the environment, and an ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT is required.
☐ I find that the proposed project MAY have a “potentially significant impact” or “potentially significant unless mitigated” impact on the environment, but at least one effect (1) has been adequately analyzed in an earlier document pursuant to applicable legal standards, and (2) has been addressed by mitigation measures based on the earlier analysis as described on attached sheets. An ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT is required, but it must analyze only the effects that remain to be addressed.
☒ I find that although the proposed project could have a significant effect on the environment, because all potentially significant effects (1) have been analyzed adequately in an earlier EIR or NEGATIVE DECLARATION pursuant to applicable standards, and (2) have been avoided or mitigated pursuant to that earlier EIR or NEGATIVE DECLARATION, including revisions or mitigation measures that are imposed upon the proposed project, nothing further is required.
Lea Simvoulakis, Community Development Director Date
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 11 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 D. E VALUATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Notes
1. All answers take account of the whole action involved, including off- site as well as on- site, cumulative as well as project-level, indirect as well as direct, and construction as well as operational impacts.
2. Once it has been determined that a particular physical impact may occur, then the checklist answers indicate whether the impact is potentially significant, less than significant with mitigation, or less than significant. “Potentially Significant Impact” is appropriate if there is substantial evidence that an effect may be significant. If there are one or more “Potentially Significant Impact” entries when the determination is made, an EIR is required.
3. “Negative Declaration: Less-Than-Significant Impact with Mitigation Measures Incorporated” applies where the incorporation of mitigation measures has reduced an effect from “Potentially Significant Impact” to a “Less-Than-Significant Impact.” The lead agency must describe the mitigation measures and briefly explain how they reduce the effect to a less-than-significant level (mitigation measures from section XVII, “Earlier Analyses,” may be cross-referenced).
4. Earlier analyses are used where, pursuant to the tiering, program EIR, or other CEQA process, an effect has been adequately analyzed in an earlier EIR or negative declaration. [Section 15063(c)(3)(D)] In this case, a brief discussion would identify the following:
a. “Earlier Analysis Used” identifies and states where such document is available for review.
b. “Impact Adequately Addressed” identifies which effects from the checklist were within the scope of and adequately analyzed in an earlier document pursuant to applicable legal standards, and states whether such effects were addressed by mitigation measures based on the earlier analysis.
c. “Mitigation Measures”—For effects that are “Less-Than-Significant Impact with Mitigation Measures Incorporated,” mitigation measures are described which were incorporated or refined from the earlier document and the extent to which they address site-specific conditions for the project.
5. Checklist references to information sources for potential impacts (e.g., general plans, zoning ordinances, etc.) are incorporated. Each reference to a previously prepared or outside document, where appropriate, includes a reference to the page or pages where the statement is substantiated.
6. “Supporting Information Sources”—A source list is attached, and other sources used or individuals contacted are cited in the discussion.
7. The explanation of each issue identifies:
a. The significance criteria or threshold, if any, used to evaluate each question; and b. The mitigation measure identified, if any to reduce the impact to less than significant.
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 12 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
8. The explanation of each issue should identify:
a. T he significance criteria or threshold, if any, used to evaluate each question; and b. The mitigation measure identified, if any, to reduce the impact to less than significance
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 13 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
1. A ESTHETICS
Except as provided in Public Resources Code Section 21099 (Modernization of Transportation Analysis for Transit-Oriented Infill Projects), would the project:
Comments:
a. According to the General Plan EIR, there are few scenic vistas in the City of Ceres.
Views mainly consist of farmland surrounding the built environment seen from some adjacent properties at the urban edge and views to the Sierra Nevada Mountain range and Mount Diablo on clear days (p. 3.1-11). Many of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are not located on the edges of Ceres and, therefore, development of these housing sites would not have a substantial adverse effect on a scenic vista.
Housing sites #1, 2, and 11 are located on the edges of Ceres and, therefore, development of the sites could have the potential to obstruct views of farmland currently available to the public. Site #1 involves development within the West Landing Specific Plan area. The West Landing Specific Plan EIR concludes that impacts to scenic vistas as a result of development of the area would be less than significant because it is not part of any formally-identified scenic vista. Site #2 involves development within the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan area. The Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR concludes that there are no scenic vistas or important visual resources identified in or near the specific plan area. Site #11, although not part of a specific plan area, is located approximately 0.5 miles
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Have a substantial adverse effect on a scenic vista? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐ b. Substantially damage scenic resources, including but not limited to trees, rock outcroppings, and historic
buildings within a state scenic highway?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
c. In non-urbanized areas, substantially degrade the
existing visual character or quality of public views of the site and its surroundings? (Public views are those
that are experienced from publicly accessible vantage
points.) If the project is in an urbanized area, would
the project conflict with applicable zoning and other
regulations governing scenic quality?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
d. Create a new source of substantial light or glare, which would adversely affect day or nighttime views in the
area?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 14 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 northeast of Site #2, which is part of the Whitmore Ranch specific plan area. As indicated previously, the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR concludes that there are no scenic vistas or important visual resources near the area. Additionally, the General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan, such as the Housing Element Update, support a compact development pattern and protects the agricultural land in the City’s planning area.
The General Plan EIR, as well as the West Landing Specific Plan EIR and the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR, concludes that impacts on scenic vistas would be less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new or more adverse impacts associated with scenic vistas than those already evaluated in the General Plan EIR, West Landing Specific Plan EIR, and the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR. b. There are no state scenic highways within or near the City of Ceres. The nearest is Interstate 5, which located approximately five miles southwest of the City (California Department of Transportation 2025). Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not substantially damage scenic resources, including but not limited to trees, rock outcroppings, and historic buildings within a state scenic highway. c. All sites associated with the Housing Element Update are located within zoning districts that allow residential uses. The height requirements for these zoning districts range from 25 feet to 40 feet and for those located in the Planned Community Zone, heights are established by the Planning Commission.
The General Plan EIR states that although some development consistent with the General Plan would have higher densities and intensities than what currently exists in the City’s planning area, any new development would be subject to policies in the General Plan that emphasize compatibility with surrounding development (p. 3.1-13). The General Plan EIR concludes that implementation of applicable General Plan policies would ensure that the impacts on the visual quality of the City’s planning area would be less than significant.
The Housing Element Update would be required to comply with the height restrictions identified in each housing site’s zoning district as well as those sites located within the airport influence area. The Housing Element Update would also be required to implement applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 2.E.2, which requires that new and expanding development conceal unsightly uses and equipment (i.e., screening of rooftop equipment and outdoor storage, and undergrounding of utilities); and Policy
2.F.6, which requires new residential developments to be physically and socially integrated with the existing community. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts associated with scenic quality than those already evaluated in the General Plan EIR.
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 15 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 d. The housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update would contribute to the existing light sources already found within Ceres. The General Plan EIR states that development in new growth areas, including the West Landing Specific Plan area (i.e., Site #1, and also Site #2 located in the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan area), would produce new light and glare in areas that currently have relatively little or no light and glare (p. 3.1-21).
The General Plan EIR concludes that implementation of the provisions within the City’s Municipal Code as well as compliance with applicable General Plan policies would ensure that impacts from light and glare would be less than significant (p. 3.1-21). The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new lighting impacts than those already evaluated in the General Plan EIR.
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 16 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
2. A GRICULTURE AND FOREST RESOURCES
In determining whether impacts on agricultural resources are significant environmental effects and in assessing impacts on agriculture and farmland, lead agencies may refer to the California Agricultural Land Evaluation and Site Assessment Model (1997) prepared by the California Department of Conservation as an optional model to use in assessing impacts on agriculture and farmland. In determining whether impacts to forest resources, including timberland, are significant environmental effects, lead agencies may refer to information compiled by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection regarding the state’s inventory of forest land, including the Forest and Range Assessment Project and the Forest Legacy Assessment project; and forest carbon measurement methodology provided in Forest Protocols adopted by the California Air Resources Board. Would the project:
Comments:
a. Two of the housing sites included in the Housing Element Update are located on sites designated as Prime and Unique Farmland (California Department of Conservation 2024). As discussed in the General Plan EIR, there are no feasible mitigation measures for agricultural land conversion that would also fulfill the objectives of and implement the General Plan as proposed. Therefore, the General Plan EIR concludes that the impact would be significant and unavoidable (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.2-16).
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Convert Prime Farmland, Unique Farmland, or
Farmland of Statewide Importance (Farmland), as
shown on the maps prepared pursuant to the
Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program of the
California Resources Agency, to nonagricultural use?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Conflict with existing zoning for agricultural use, or a Williamson Act contract?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
c. Conflict with existing zoning for, or cause rezoning of, forest land (as defined in Public Resources Code
section 12220(g)), timberland (as defined by Public
Resources Code section 4526), or timberland zoned
Timberland Production (as defined by Government
Code section 51104(g))?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
d. Result in the loss of forest land or conversion of
forest land to non-forest use?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
e. Involve other changes in the existing environment
which, due to their location or nature, could result in conversion of Farmland to nonagricultural use or
conversion of forest land to non-forest use?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 17 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Development associated with the Housing Element Update is part of this significant and unavoidable impact on agricultural land addressed in the General Plan EIR and, therefore, would result in significant and unavoidable impacts. However, the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts associated with agricultural resources that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
b. None of the housing sites included in the Housing Element Update are zoned for agricultural uses nor are any of the housing sites under Williamson Act contract (California Department of Conservation 2025). Therefore, development associated with the Housing Element Update would not conflict with existing zoning for agricultural use or a Williamson Act contract.
c-d. There are no forest resources or land zoned for forest use in Ceres (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.15-1). Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not conflict with existing zoning for, or cause rezoning of, forest land (as defined in Public Resources Code section 12220(g)), timberland (as defined by Public Resources Code section 4526), or timberland zoned Timberland Production (as defined by Government Code section 51104(g)). The Housing Element Update would also not result in the loss of forest land or conversion of forest land to non-forest use.
e. There are no forest lands within Ceres; therefore, the Housing Element Update would have no impact associated with conversion of forest land to non-forest use.
Several housing sites (e.g., Sites #1, 2, and 11) are located adjacent to farmlands. The General Plan EIR concludes that there are no feasible mitigation measures that would eliminate the potential for indirect impacts that could lead to the conversion of agricultural lands and, therefore, impacts would remain significant and unavoidable (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.2-20).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update is part of this significant and unavoidable impact and, therefore, would result in significant and unavoidable impacts.
However, the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 18 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
3. A IR QUALITY
Where available, the significance criteria established by the applicable air quality management district or air pollution control district may be relied upon to make the following determinations.
Would the project:
Comments:
a. The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (“air district”) is responsible for the clean air in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin (“air basin”). The air district developed its air quality plans to reach attainment concentrations of ozone and particulate matter in the air basin, which are currently in nonattainment for those criteria pollutants. Since certification of the General Plan EIR, the air district adopted updated air quality plans:
the 2022 Plan for the 2015 8-Hour Ozone Standard and the 2024 Plan for the 2012 Annual PM2.5 Standard. The primary change between the 2016 Ozone Plan for 2008 8-Hour Ozone Standard, which was evaluated in the Geneal Plan EIR, and the updated 2022 Plan is a stricter ozone concentration limit with the 2015 standard being lower than the 2008 standard (70 parts per billion and 75 parts per billion, respectively). The key update between the 2016 Moderate Area Plan for the 2012 PM2.5 Standard, which was evaluated in the General Plan EIR, and the updated 2024 Plan is that the Environmental Protection Agency lowered the PM
2.5 standard from 12 micrograms per cubic meter to 9 micrograms per cubic meter in February 2024.
The General Plan contains policies that support the implementation of the mobile source strategies and contains policies that are consistent with the applicable control measures that are discussed in the abovementioned air quality plans. The General Plan EIR
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Conflict with or obstruct implementation of the
applicable air quality plan?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Result in a cumulatively considerable net increase of any criteria pollutant for which the project region is
nonattainment under an applicable federal or state
ambient air quality standard?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. Expose sensitive receptors to substantial pollutant
concentrations?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
d. Result in other emissions, such as those leading to
odors adversely affecting a substantial number of
people?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
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Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 19 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 concludes that the General Plan would not conflict with or obstruct implementation of the air district’s air quality plans because the amount of growth predicted for the General Plan is accommodated by the air district’s air quality plans.
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
b. The air basin has been designated as a nonattainment area for the state O3, PM2.5 and PM10 standards as well as nonattainment for the federal O3 and PM2.5 standards (San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District 2025).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would generate vehicle trips and vehicle miles traveled that would result in ozone precursor emissions and particulate matter. The General Plan EIR states that individual projects under the General Plan would be required to undergo subsequent environmental review. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, development associated with the Housing Element Update would also be required to undergo individual environmental review and demonstrate compliance with air district rules and regulations governing air quality.
The General Plan EIR concludes that implementation of development under the General Plan would result in an exceedance of the air district’s threshold for daily operational emissions and, therefore, impacts would be cumulatively considerable. No mitigation is available beyond measures identified in the air quality plans and other plans that would only partially reduce impacts. Therefore, the General Plan EIR concludes that impacts would remain significant and unavoidable.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update is part of this significant and unavoidable impact and, therefore, would result in significant and unavoidable impacts.
However, the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new air quality impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
c. Construction. During construction of the individual housing sites, toxic air contaminants (TACs) may occur as a result of the use of heavy equipment operations and heavy-duty trucks. The presence of TACs is especially harmful for sensitive receptors (e.g., residences, schools, retirement homes, etc.) that may be adjacent to one or more of the housing sites during construction activities.
Off-road diesel construction equipment and heavy-duty diesel trucks, which are the sources of diesel exhaust particulate matter (one of several TACs), are regulated under three airborne toxic control measures adopted by the California Air Resource Board. As stated in the General Plan EIR, airborne toxic control measures for diesel construction equipment specifies particulate matter emission standards for equipment fleets, which become increasingly stringent over time (p. 3.3-42). The newer (i.e., after 2013-2015)
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 20 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 construction equipment are equipped with high-efficiency diesel particulate filters and newer heavy-duty trucks are required to be equipped with an automatic shutoff device to prevent excessive idling or meet stringent nitrogen oxides requirements.
The General Plan EIR concludes that the diesel exhaust particulate matter emissions from off-road construction equipment and trucks will be controlled substantially throughout the time it takes to buildout development under the General Plan. Therefore, development consistent with the General Plan is not anticipated to result in long-term exposure of sensitive receptors to substantial concentration of TACs from construction activities and impacts would be less than significant (p. 3.3-42).
Development of the housing sites will be required to comply with all applicable regulatory requirements and standards associated with construction equipment and its potential to emit TACs and impact sensitive receptors. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, would result in less than significant impacts associated with exposing sensitive receptors to concentrations of TACs from construction activities. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Operations. The Housing Element Update would locate residential uses in the vicinity of air pollutant sources such as stationary sources and State Route 99. The General Plan EIR states that General Plan policies would serve to protect new sensitive receptors from exposure of air pollutant sources. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies such as Policy
4.G.7, which requires site-specific project design improvements to reduce public health risks associated with poor air quality in locations where sensitive receptors are permitted within 500 feet of State Route 99.
Compliance with applicable General Plan policies, such as Policy 4.G.7, would ensure that operational impacts associated with the Housing Element Update would be less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR. d. The most common sources of odors identified in complaints received by local air districts are sewage treatment plants, landfills, recycling facilities, waste transfer stations, petroleum refineries, biomass operations, autobody shops, coating operations, fiberglass manufacturing, foundries, rendering plants, and livestock operations. The proposed project would not produce these types or other significant objectionable odors that would affect a substantial number of people.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 21 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
4. B IOLOGICAL RESOURCES
Would the project:
Comments:
a. The v alley elderberry longhorn beetle (designated as a Threatened species), Moestan blister beetle, and obscure bumble bee are known to occur within the area of all housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update. The Swainson’s hawk (designated as a Threatened species) is also known to occur in the area. Development of the housing sites could result in potential impacts to these species by changing existing habitats.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Have a substantial adverse effect, either directly or through habitat modifications, on any species
identified as a candidate, sensitive, or special status species in local or regional plans, policies, regulations, or by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife
or US Fish and Wildlife Service?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Have a substantial adverse effect on any riparian
habitat or other sensitive natural community identified in local or regional plans, policies, or regulations, or by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife or US
Fish and Wildlife Service?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
c. Have a substantial adverse effect on state or federally protected wetlands (including, but not limited to,
marsh, vernal pool, coastal, etc.), through direct
removal, filing, hydrological interruption, or other
means?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
d. Interfere substantially with the movement of any
native resident or migratory fish or wildlife species or with established native resident or migratory wildlife
corridors, or impede the use of native wildlife nursery sites?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
e. Conflict with any local policies or ordinances
protecting biological resources, such as a tree
preservation policy or ordinance?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
f. Conflict with the provisions of an adopted Habitat
Conservation Plan, Natural Community Conservation
Plan, or other approved local, regional, or state habitat conservation plan?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 22 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The Housing Element Update would be required to comply with following General Plan Policies:
4.D.1 Special-Status Species. Support the preservation of habitats of rare, threatened, endangered, and other special -status species. Require development in areas known to have value for wildlife to be carefully planned and, where possible, sited to maintain re asonable wildlife value of the habitat.
4.D.2 Biotic Resource Evaluation. Require, as part of the environmental review process prior to approval of discretionary development permits involving parcels within a significant ecological resource area, a biotic resources evaluation of the site by a qualifie d biologist. Significant ecological resource areas include, at a minimum, the following:
Any habitat that supports rare, threatened, or endangered animals or plants;
Riparian and wetland habitats associated with the Tuolumne River; and
Such evaluation should consider the potential for significant impact on biological resources, and identify measures to feasibly mitigate any impacts or otherwise indicate why mitigation would not be feasible. In approving any such permit, the City shall determine the feasibility of the identified mitigation measures.
4.D.5 Swainson’s Hawk Protection. Require that proposed development projects adhere to the following steps in order to ensure the protection of Swainson’s hawk in the Planning Area:
If ground-disturbing activities would take place on sites where suitable nesting habitat may exist, a survey for nesting Swainson’s Hawks shall be conducted by a qualified wildlife biologist following survey methods developed by the Swainson’s Hawk Technical Advisory Committee (2000) prior to undertaking any ground-disturbing activities. The survey shall include
recommended mitigation measures for any potential impacts from the project.
If ground disturbing activities would take place during the nesting season (March 1 through August 31) and Swainson’s hawk nests are found to be present, a no- disturbance buffer of a minimum of 0.5 miles shall be established around active nests until the breeding season has ended or until a qualified biologist has determined that the birds have fledged and are no longer reliant upon the nest or parental care for survival. If the 0.5 -mile buffer is not feasible, the project proponent must consult with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife to determine if a smaller buffer would avoid take. If it is determined that take
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 23 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 cannot be avoided, the project proponent must acquire
authorization through an Incidental Take Permit from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife in accordance with the California Endangered Species Act in order to continue.
4.D.6 Swainson’s Hawk Habitat Mitigation. Require mititgation [sic] for projects that would result in the loss of Swainson’s hawk foraging habitat within 10 miles of an active nest tree, which may include but is not limited to:
For projects within one mile of an active nest tree, provide a minimum of one acre of habitat management land for each acre of development.
For projects within between one and five miles of an active nest tree, provide a minimum of 0.75 acres of habitat management land for each acre of development.
For projects within between five and 10 miles of an active nest tree, provide a minimum of 0.5 acres of habitat management land for each acre of development.
Alternative mitigation strategies are acceptable if approved by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.
As concluded in the General Plan EIR, implementation of the abovementioned policies would ensure that development associated with the Housing Element, which is consistent with the General Plan, would result in less than significant impacts on species identified as candidate, sensitive, or special status species. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed by the General Plan EIR.
b. The housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are not located along the Tuolumne River or other riparian habitats or other sensitive natural communities (City of Ceres 2018a, Figure 3.4-1). Therefore, the Housing Element would not have a substantial adverse effect on any riparian habitat or other sensitive natural community identified in local or regional plans, policies, or regulations, or by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife or US Fish and Wildlife Service.
c. There are no wetlands on or adjacent to any of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update (City of Ceres 2018a, Figure 3.4-1). The nearest wetlands in Ceres are located along the Tuolumne River. Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not have a substantial adverse effect on state or federally protected wetlands (including, but not limited to, marsh, vernal pool, coastal, etc.), through direct removal, filing, hydrological interruption, or other means.
d. According to the California Essential Habitat Connectivity Project, there are no natural landscape blocks or essential connectivity areas in the City’s planning area; however, the large areas of undeveloped land in the western, eastern, and southern portions of the
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 24 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 City’s planning area may serve as wildlife corridors for common and special-status species (City of Ceres 2018a). Many of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are located within the developed area of Ceres. However, Site #1 (the West Landing Specific Plan area) is located within a large area of mostly undeveloped land in west Ceres. Nonetheless, the West Landing Specific Plan EIR concludes that no wildlife movement corridors exist at the site and the intensively cultivated orchards and grain fields at the site are not suitable nursey sites (City of Ceres 2010, p. 7-15).
Site #2 (the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan area) is located within a partially undeveloped area in east Ceres. The Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR concludes that development within the specific plan area could result in the loss of human-made structures and trees that support maternity bat roosts. Therefore, development within this site would be required to comply with Whitmore Ranch Specific EIR Mitigation Measure 3.4-5 to reduce impacts to a less-than-significant level because it would ensure maternity roosts are not disturbed by construction and would provide replacement roosts to compensate for loss of existing maternity roosts of common bat species (City of Ceres 2018c, p. 3.4- 23). The Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR also concludes that no established migratory routes have been identified at the site; important wildlife movement in the region is located at the eastern and western edges of the Stanislaus County (City of Ceres 2018c, p. 3.4-15).
Therefore, the Housing Element Update would result in less than significant impacts on wildlife movement corridors and the use of native wildlife nursery sites. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan, West Landing Specific Plan, and the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan, and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed in a previous EIR (i.e., General Plan EIR, West Landing Specific Plan EIR, and Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR). e. The City does not have any local policies or ordinances protecting biological resources, such as a tree preservation policy (p. 3.4-18). Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not conflict with any local policies or ordinances protecting biological resources, such as a tree preservation policy or ordinance.
f. The Habitat Conservation Plan prepared by PG&E covers part of Stanislaus County, including portions of the City’s planning area. Activities covered under this plan include activities associated with the operation and maintenance of PG&E’s gas and electric transmission and distribution system. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would not involve these types of activities. Additionally, there are no Natural Community Conservation Plans at the Stanislaus County-level that include land within the City’s planning area (City of Ceres 2018a, p. 3.4-19).
Therefore, implementation of the Housing Element Update would not conflict with the provisions of an adopted Habitat Conservation Plan, Natural Community Conservation Plan, or other approved, local, regional, or state habitat conservation plan.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 25 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
5. C ULTURAL RESOURCES
Would the project:
Comments:
a. None of the sites associated with the Housing Element Update are located within or adjacent to historic sites as identified in Figure 4-7 of the General Plan. However, because development at each of the individual sites has not yet been proposed, construction activities could occur in areas that have not been previously developed with urban uses, have not been studied through a cultural resource investigation, or the excavation activities could reach depths that exceed those previously attained. Therefore, in order to ensure that development within Ceres does not have detrimental effects on cultural resources, each individual project would need to be assessed as it is proposed.
The General Plan EIR similarly concludes that at the time development or redevelopment projects are proposed, the project-level CEQA document would need to identify potential impacts on known or potential historic sites and structures (p. 3.8-13).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
b. The General Plan states that there are prehistoric and historic archaeological resources present within the City’s planning area and that there are a number of known sites in and near the City’s planning area that may be sensitive for unrecorded resources (p. 4-48).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update may involve construction activities that could disturb or damage unknown archaeological resources. The General Plan EIR concludes that implementation of applicable General Plan policies would ensure less than significant impacts associated with disturbing archaeological resources.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Cause a substantial adverse change in the significance of a historical resource pursuant to section 15064.5?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Cause a substantial adverse change in the significance of a unique archaeological resource pursuant to section 15064.5?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. Disturb any human remains, including those interred
outside of dedicated cemeteries?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 26 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, would be required to implement the following policy to ensure less than significant impacts:
4.I.2. Archaeological Resource Management. Establish a procedure for the management of archaeological materials found on- site during a development, including the following provisions:
If significant resources are known or suspected to be present on a site, require that a qualified archaeologist conduct monitoring of building demolition and/or construction grading activities.
If materials are found on-site during construction activities, require that work be halted until a qualified archaeologist evaluates the find and makes a recommendation for the preservation in place or recovery of the resource.
The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
c. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would result in construction activities that may disturb undiscovered Native American human remains. The General Plan EIR states that there are no General Plan policies that directly address the disturbance of human remains, but that future development and redevelopment projects consistent with the General Plan would be required to adhere to the state regulations associated with the protection of Native American human remains (e.g., Public Resources Code Section 5097.98, California Health and Safety Code Section 7050.5, and Section 7052).
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would adhere to the state regulations listed above. Therefore, implementation of the Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 27 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
6. E NERGY
Would the project:
Comments:
a. Construction Energy Demand. Construction associated with development of the Housing Element Update would consume gasoline and diesel fuel through operation of heavy-duty, off-road construction equipment and on-road vehicles. Construction emissions associated with the Housing Element Update would be relatively short-term and would cease once construction of an individual housing site is complete. The General Plan EIR concludes that construction emissions would represent a relatively short demand on local and regional fuel supplies that would be easily accommodated and, therefore, would not result in a wasteful, inefficient, and unnecessary usage of direct or indirect energy (p. 3.5-48).
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, construction associated with development of the Housing Element Update would not result in wasteful, inefficient, and unnecessary usage of direct or indirect energy.
Operational Energy Demand. Implementation of the Housing Element Update would result in the generation of vehicle trips, which would consume gasoline and diesel, and would result in the consumption of electricity and natural gas. The General Plan EIR evaluated development consistent with the General Plan and its operational energy consumption compared to existing conditions. The General Plan EIR found a decrease in per service population energy consumption between 2014 and 2035 due to implementation of applicable General Plan policies related to electricity and natural gas reductions, as well as those from state actions, and implementation of polices related to fuel savings achieved by reducing overall vehicle miles traveled. Therefore, the General Plan EIR concluded that operation of development consistent with the General Plan would not result in a wasteful, inefficient, and unnecessary usage of direct or indirect energy and impacts would be considered less than significant (p. 3.5-49).
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Result in a potentially significant environmental
impact due to wasteful, inefficient, or unnecessary
consumption of energy resources, during project
construction or operation?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Conflict with or obstruct a state or local plan for
renewable energy or energy efficiency?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 28 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
b. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with all building design standards set in the current California Building Code’s Title 24.
Title 24 requires the implementation of energy efficient light fixtures and building materials into the design of new construction projects. The standards identified in Title 24 are updated every three years and each iteration is more energy efficient than the previous standards. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would also be required to comply with Senate Bill 100, which mandates 100 percent clean electricity for California by 2045.
The General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan would be required to comply with the latest California Building Code and all federal, state, and local rules and regulations pertaining to energy consumption and conservation, including applicable policies in the General Plan. Therefore, impacts would be less than significant.
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would comply with the latest California Building Code requirements and all federal, state, and local rules and regulations, including applicable General Plan policies. Therefore, development associated with the Housing Element Update would result in less than significant impacts related to conflicting with or obstructing a state or local plan for renewable energy or energy efficiency. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those that have already been adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 29 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
7. G EOLOGY AND SOILS
Would the project:
Comments:
a. Fault Rupture. There are no known earthquake faults that pass through the City nor are there any Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones. Development associated with the Housing Element Update will be required to comply with the California Building Code
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Directly or indirectly cause potential substantial
adverse effects, including the risk of loss, injury, or death involving:
(1) Rupture of a known earthquake fault, as
delineated on the most recent Alquist-Priolo
Earthquake Fault Zoning Map issued by the
State Geologist for the area or based on other
substantial evidence of a known fault? Refer to
Division of Mines and Geology Special
Publication 42?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
(2) Strong seismic ground shaking? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
(3) Seismic-related ground failure, including
liquefaction?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
(4) Landslides? ☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
b. Result in substantial soil erosion or the loss of topsoil? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐ c. Be located on a geologic unit or soil that is unstable, or that would become unstable as a result of the
project, and potentially result in on- or off-site
landslide, lateral spreading, subsidence, liquefaction, or collapse?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
d. Be located on expansive soil, creating substantial
direct or indirect risks to life or property?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
e. Have soils incapable of adequately supporting the use of septic tanks or alternative wastewater disposal
systems where sewers are not available for the disposal of wastewater?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
f. Directly or indirectly destroy a unique paleontological resource or site or unique geologic feature?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 30 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 requirements that protect buildings from fault rupture, which would further reduce any potential adverse effects on people or structures from rupture of a known earthquake fault to the greatest extent feasible. Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not directly or indirectly cause potential substantial adverse effects, including the risk of loss, injury, or death involving rupture of a known earthquake fault.
Ground-Shaking. According to the General Plan, the primary seismic hazard in the City is ground-shaking. All new structures, such as those associated with the Housing Element Update, are required to comply with the seismic-related regulations in the California Building Code that require all structures to be designed and constructed to resist the effects of earthquake motions. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would also be required to comply General Plan Policy 5.G.1, which requires that new structures and alterations to existing structures be designed and constructed according to current Building Code standards to minimize risk to the safety of occupants during ground-shaking.
Compliance with the California Building Code and General Plan Policy 5.G.1 would ensure that the potential for development associated with the Housing Element Update to directly or indirectly cause potential substantial adverse effects, including the risk of loss, injury, or death involving ground-shaking would be less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Liquefaction. The General Plan states that due to the City’s well-drained, relatively stable soils, distance from active faults, and depth of the groundwater table, the risk of liquefaction is low (p. 5-30). Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not directly or indirectly cause potential substantial adverse effects, including the risk of loss, injury, or death involving liquefaction.
Landslides. The General Plan indicates that the City of Ceres is relatively flat and there is almost no potential for landslides, with exception to the steep banks along the Tuolumne River. None of the housing sites are located near the Tuolumne River.
Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not directly or indirectly cause potential substantial adverse effects, including the risk of loss, injury, or death involving landslides. b. Removal of natural or manufactured protection can result in substantial soil erosion and excessive sedimentation. Construction activities that would occur on individual sites associated with the Housing Element Update represent the greatest potential cause of erosion.
All of the housing sites would disturb more than one acre of land and, therefore, would be subject to compliance with the City’s Phase II MS4 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit, including the implementation of best management practices of which some are directed towards reducing soil erosion or loss of topsoil.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update will also be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 4.F.9, which requires
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 31 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 measures during construction and post-construction to limit land disturbance activities such as minimizing disturbance of natural vegetation or other physical or biological features important to preventing erosion or sedimentation, and Policy 5.G.8, which requires the use of best management practices to control and mitigate soil erosion during construction activities.
Compliance with applicable General Plan policies and the City’s NPDES permit would ensure that impacts associated with soil erosion and loss of topsoil during construction of the individual housing sites would be less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
c. The General Plan states that due to the City’s well -drained, relatively stable soils, distance from active faults, and depth of the groundwater table, the risk of liquefaction and lateral spreading are low. Additionally, the clay content in Ceres is low and, therefore, the potential for subsidence to occur is low. As discussed in checklist question “a,” landslide potential in Ceres is low. Therefore, the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are not likely to be located on a geologic unit or soil that is unstable, or that would become unstable as a result of the project, and potentially result in on- or off- site landslide, lateral spreading, subsidence, liquefaction, or collapse. d. The higher the clay content of a soil, the higher its shrink- swell potential (i.e., expansive qualities). The General Plan states that the soils in Ceres have low clay content and, therefore, have low shrink-swell potential. Therefore, development associated with the Housing Element Update would not be located on expansive soil, creating substantial direct or indirect risks to life or property.
e. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would connect into the City’s existing wastewater system. Therefore, no impacts would occur associated with soils supporting the use of septic tanks or alternative wastewater disposal systems. f. According to the General Plan, no paleontological resources have been uncovered in Ceres to date. However, construction activities associated with the Housing Element Update may result in the accidental disturbance of paleontological sites.
Pursuant to the General Plan EIR, implementation of General Plan Policy 4.I.4, shown below, would ensure less than significant impacts on paleontological resources.
Paleontological Resources. Establish a procedure for the management of paleontological materials found on- site during a development, including the following provisions:
If materials are found on-site during grading, require that work be halted until a qualified professional evaluated the find to determine if it represents a significant paleontological resource.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 32 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 If the resource is determined to be significant, the paleontologist shall supervise removal of the material and determine the most appropriate archival storage of the materials.
Appropriate materials shall be prepared, catalogued, and archived at the applicant’s expense and shall be retained within Stanislaus County if feasible.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with the abovementioned General Plan policy in order to reduce the potential to directly or indirectly destroy a unique paleontological resource or site or unique geologic feature.
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts associated with paleontological resources than those already adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 33 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
8. G REENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Would the project:
Comments:
a. The General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan would generate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but would meet all state-mandated emissions targets through 2035 even without implementation of applicable General Plan policies and implementation actions that would reduce GHG emissions, and impacts would be considered less than significant.
The California Air Resources Board’s 2017 Scoping Plan’s GHG emissions targets were used to determine the significance of the GHG emission on the environmental as a result of the General Plan. Since certification of the General Plan EIR, the California Air Resources Board has adopted a 2022 Scoping Plan. The key difference between the 2017 and 2022 Scoping Plan is that the 2022 Scoping Plan sets a more ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045, aiming for an 85 percent reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels while the 2017 Scoping Plan focused on 40 percent reduction by 2030.
The Housing Element Update would be required to comply with all applicable state and local regulations and policies that would promote energy efficiency and reduce transportation emissions. The General Plan EIR states that individual projects are required to undergo project-level evaluation. Therefore, a GHG analysis shall be prepared at the time of application submittal for each housing unit proposed, as applicable, and is required to be consistent with the most recent California Air Resources Board plans (e.g., scoping plan) and accepted scientific methodology used when that analysis occurs.
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts than those already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Generate greenhouse gas emissions, either directly or indirectly, that may have a significant impact on the
environment?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Conflict with an applicable plan, policy or regulation adopted for the purpose of reducing the emissions of
greenhouse gases?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 34 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 b. The General Plan EIR states that through implementation of applicable General Plan policies, development consistent with the General Plan would serve to implement many strategies and measures aimed at reducing GHGs. The Stanislaus Council of Governments’ 2022 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy also includes policy objectives that assist the Stanislaus Council of Governments’ implementation of Senate Bill 375, which addresses GHG emissions associated with the transportation sector through regional transportation and sustainability plans, and other regional GHG targets. With implementation of applicable General Plan policies related to sustainability and transportation objectives, development associated with the General Plan would complement the goals and policies of the Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy and would continue to carry out the goals for Senate Bill 375. Therefore, the General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan would not conflict with an applicable plan, policy, or regulation adopted for the purpose of reducing the emissions of GHGs and impacts would be less than significant (p. 3.5-31).
The Housing Element Update would be required to comply with all applicable General Plan policies whose purpose is to reduce GHG emissions. Additionally, development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to implement the strategies identified within the 2022 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy. Since certification of the General Plan EIR, the Stanislaus Council of Governments adopted its 2022 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy; the General Plan EIR references the previous 2014 Plan. The primary difference between the 2014 and 2022 Plan is a greater emphasis on promoting sustainable transportation options, such as increased transit service and improved pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure, all of which are aimed at reducing vehicle miles traveled and GHG emissions in the Stanislaus County region.
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new greenhouse gas emissions impacts than those already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 35 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
9. H AZARDS AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
Would the project:
Comments:
a. The residential development associated with the Housing Element Update would not involve the routine transport, use, or disposal of hazardous materials. Therefore, implementation of the Housing Element Update would not create a significant hazard to the public or the environment.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Create a significant hazard to the public or the
environment through the routine transport, use, or
disposal of hazardous materials?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
b. Create a significant hazard to the public or the
environment through reasonably foreseeable upset
and accident conditions involving the release of
hazardous materials into the environment?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. Emit hazardous emissions or handle hazardous or
acutely hazardous materials, substances, or waste
within one-quarter mile of an existing or proposed
school?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
d. Be located on a site which is included on a list of
hazardous materials sites compiled pursuant to
Government Code section 65962.5 and, as a result,
create a significant hazard to the public or the
environment?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
e. For a project located within an airport land-use plan or, where such a plan has not been adopted, within
two miles of a public airport or a public-use airport,
result in a safety hazard or excessive noise for people residing or working in the project area?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
f. Impair implementation of or physically interfere with an adopted emergency response plan or emergency
evacuation plan?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
g. Expose people or structures, either directly or
indirectly, to a significant risk of loss, injury or death involving wildland fires?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 36 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 b. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would involve the demolition of existing structures since infill development is a guiding principle for the General Plan.
It is unknown at this time if any of the existing structures were constructed prior to the 1970s and whether or not hazardous materials are present on each site. However, according to the requirements of the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District, all potentially-asbestos-containing (“suspect”) material in a structure to be demolished as part of a development project must be tested for asbestos content. Therefore, developers of future individual projects associated with the Housing Element Update will be required to obtain a California Occupational Safety and Health Administration Certified Asbestos Consultant who will prepare an asbestos survey and provide a report of the results. These results will be presented to the City Building Department for review and approval prior to issuance of a demolition permit.
Additionally, should lead and asbestos be detected on any one of the sites associated with the Housing Element Update, the development would be required to comply with the mandatory requirements of the California Code of Regulations and the Federal Clean Air Act to reduce the potential hazards and risks related to the release of lead and asbestos.
Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not create a significant hazard to the public or the environment through reasonably foreseeable upset and accident conditions involving the release of hazardous materials into the environment; impacts would be less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR. c. Several of the housing sites are located within one quarter-mile of an existing and proposed school. However, the Housing Element Update involves housing developments and, therefore, would not emit hazardous emissions or handle hazardous or acutely hazardous materials, substances, or waste within one-quarter mile of an existing or proposed school.
d. The following lists were reviewed:
Hazardous Materials Waste and Substances Sites from the Department of Toxic Substances Control EnviroStor Database (Department of Toxic Substances Control 2024;
Leaking Underground Storage Tank Sites from the State Water Board’s GeoTracker Database (State Water Resources Board 2024);
Solid Waste Disposal Sites Identified by Water Board with Waste Constituents Above Hazardous Waste Levels Outside the Waste Management Unit (California Environmental Protection Agency 2024a);
“Active” Cease and Desist Order and Cleanup and Abatement Orders from Water Board (California Environmental Protection Agency 2024b); and List of hazardous waste facilities subject to corrective action pursuant to Section 25187.5 of the Health and Safety Code, identified by the Department of Toxic Substances Control (California Environmental Protection Agency 2024c).
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 37 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The housing sites identified within the Housing Element Update are not located on any of these lists except for one. Site #11 is located on a site identified on the Leaking Underground Storage Tank Sites from the State Water Board’s GeoTracker Database.
However, this case has been cleaned up and closed since 1996 and does not pose a threat to redevelopment associated with the Housing Element Update.
Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not create a significant hazard to the public or the environment.
e. Most of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are located within the Modesto City-County Airport’s airport influence boundary (refer to Map MOD-1 in the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan) and within one of the three overflight zones (refer to Map MOD-5 in the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan). Site #14 is also located within Zone 6, Traffic Pattern Zone and Site #3 is also located within Zone 4, Outer Approach/Departure Zone (refer to Map MOD- 3 in the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan) (Stanislaus County Planning and Community Development Department 2016). Pursuant to General Plan Policy 5.J.2, all housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update and within the airport’s influence boundary will be required to comply with the applicable policies and compatibility criteria identified in the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan in order to minimize the exposure of people to safety hazards.
The General Plan EIR concludes that so long as land uses within the airport’s influence area are compatible with the safety requirements in the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan and that new development is compatible with the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan, exposure to hazards of persons or structures in the airport influence areas would be limited. Therefore, impacts on the safety of those working or residing within the airport land use area would be less than significant (City of Ceres 2018a, p. 3.7-37).
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts associated with proximity to the airport than those already adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
f. Most of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update involve infill development and redevelopment of sites, which would not impact implementation of, or physically interfere with, an adopted emergency response plan or emergency evacuation plan.
However, Sites # 1 and 2 are not considered infill development or redevelopment. These two sites are part of specific plans that each went through their own environmental review. Both specific plans’ environmental impact reports concluded less than significant impacts with implementation of mitigation associated with the topic of conflicting or physically interfering with an adopted emergency response plan or emergency evacuation plan. In summary, the project developers for West Landing (Site #1) are required to provide the Ceres Fire Department for review and approval the construction plans
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 38 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 associated with any roadway modifications and the project developers for Whitmore Ranch (Site #2) must prepare and implement traffic control plans for construction activities. Development on these two sites is required to comply with the mitigation measures identified in their respective specific plan environmental impact report.
Therefore, the Housing Element Update would result in less than significant impacts associated with interfering with implementation of, or physically interfering with, an adopted emergency response plan or emergency evacuation plan. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR, West Landing Specific Plan EIR, and the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR.
g. The entire City of Ceres and surrounding areas are not located within wildfire hazard zones. The nearest wildfire hazard area is approximately 12.5 miles west of Ceres (California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection 2024). Therefore, implementation of the Housing Element Update would not expose people or structures, either directly or indirectly, to a significant risk of loss, injury or death involving wildland fires.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 39 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
10. H YDROLOGY AND WATER QUALITY
Would the project:
Comments:
a. Construction Water Quality. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would involve soil disturbance, such as grading and construction activities, that could impact water quality through soil erosion and increasing the amount of pollutants carried in runoff.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Violate any water quality standards or waste discharge requirements or otherwise substantially degrade
surface or ground water quality?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Substantially decrease groundwater supplies or
interfere substantially with groundwater recharge such
that the project may impede sustainable groundwater
management of the basin?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. Substantially alter the existing drainage pattern of the site or area, including through the alteration of the
course of a stream or river or through the addition of
impervious surfaces, in a manner which would:
(1) Result in substantial erosion or siltation on- or off- site;
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
(2) Substantially increase the rate or amount of surface runoff in a manner which would result in flooding on-
or off-site;
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
(3) Create or contribute runoff water that would exceed the capacity of existing or planned storm water
drainage systems or provide substantial additional
sources of polluted runoff; or
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
(4) Impede or redirect flood flows? ☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
d. In flood hazard, tsunami, or seiche zones, risk release of pollutants due to project inundation?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
e. Conflict with or obstruct implementation of a water
quality control plan or sustainable groundwater
management plan?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 40 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Many of the housing sites would disturb more than one acre of total land area. For those sites disturbing more than one acre of land, the developer would be required to comply with the California Construction Stormwater Permit adopted by the Stormwater Resources Control Board. This permit prohibits the discharge of stormwater to surface waters from construction activities. Pursuant to this permit, the preparation of a stormwater pollution prevention plan would be required by all of the housing sites as they would all result in the soil disturbance of more than 5,000 square feet. Stormwater pollution prevention plans protect water quality during and after construction of the site by minimizing erosion during construction and addressing post-construction runoff quality (volume) and quality (treatment). Stormwater pollution prevention plans are also required to incorporate best management practices that help prevent or control stormwater runoff and the discharge of pollutants.
Additionally, the development of each housing site will be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 4.F.6, which requires that projects use best management practices and low-impact development strategies to protect receiving waters from the adverse effects of construction activities and urban runoff; and Policy 4.F.9, which requires that projects implement measures during construction and post- construction to limit land disturbance activities such as clearing and grading and cut-and- fill, avoid steep slopes, unstable areas, and erosive soils, and minimize disturbance of natural vegetation and other physical or biological features important to preventing erosion or sedimentation. Development associated with the Housing Element Update will also be required to comply with the rules and regulations outlined in City Municipal Code Section 13.20.110, Reduction of pollutants in storm water.
Compliance with applicable General Plan policies, the City’s Construction General Permit, and the City’s Municipal Code would ensure that construction activities associated with the Housing Element Update would have less than significant impacts related to water quality standards or waste discharge requirements. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts related to construction water quality than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Operational Water Quality. During the operational phase of the individual developments associated with the Housing Element Update, urban pollutants can mix with the stormwater runoff from the project site potentially affecting the receiving waters.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with the City’s Phase II MS4 NPDES permit, which helps control stormwater runoff post-construction by implementing measures into a project’s design and requiring the preparation of a stormwater pollution prevention plan. Additionally, the development of each housing site will be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 4.F.8, which requires that new development provide landscaping and re-vegetation of graded or disturbed areas with drought-tolerant native or non-invasive plants; and Policy 4.F.9 described above.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 41 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Compliance with the City’s Phase II MS4 NPDES permit and General Plan policies would ensure that the water quality impacts post-construction at the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts related to operational water quality than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR. b. The City’s only water source is the Turlock Groundwater Basin (or subbasin). The General Plan EIR states that although development consistent with the General Plan could increase the demand for water, this demand would be less than the City’s historic average for groundwater pumping (p. 2.9-27). The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
c. Erosion. Refer back to checklist question “b” under Section 7.0, Geology and Soils.
On- or Off-site Flooding. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would alter the existing drainage pattern of some of the housing site locations, replacing pervious surfaces with impervious features. Increases in impervious surfaces on a site can result in an increase in stormwater runoff that could result in the potential for flooding on- or off-site. However, as previously mentioned, development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with the requirements of the City’s Phase II MS4 Permit, some of which involve implementation of best management practices, which would reduce imperviousness, retain or detain stormwater on-site, decrease surface water flows, and/or slow stormwater runoff rates.
The Housing Element Update would also be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 6.F.4, which requires new development to mitigate increases in stormwater peak flows and/or volume, and Policy 6.F.6, which requires that new development have surface drainage disposal accommodated in one of several ways (e.g., on-site drainage retained within the development site). Compliance with these regulatory requirements (Phase II MS4 Permit and General Plan policies) would ensure that the potential impacts associated with flooding on- or off-site would be less than significant.
The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts related to flooding on- or off-site than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Runoff. As previously indicated, an increase in impervious surfaces with implementation of some of the housing sites could result in an increase in stormwater runoff, which could result in higher peak discharges that may potentially exceed the capacity of existing or planned stormwater drainage systems. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would involve the disturbance of more than 5,000 square feet of soil; therefore, pursuant to the City’s Phase II MS4 Permit, the preparation of a stormwater pollution prevention plan is required, which would implement site design measures to reduce stormwater runoff.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 42 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Implementation of these stormwater control measures will minimize the potential for the individual housing development to create or contribute runoff water that would exceed the capacity of existing or planned stormwater drainage systems or provide substantial additional sources of polluted runoff. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts related to stormwater runoff that would exceed the capacity of existing or planned storm water drainage systems than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Flood Flows. None of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update is not located within any flood hazard zone (FEMA 2025). Therefore, the Housing Element Update would have no impact associated with its potential to impede or redirect flood flows.
d. There are no large, enclosed bodies of water within Ceres that could trigger a seiche, Ceres is far from the ocean resulting in no risk for tsunamis, and the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are not located within a flood hazard zone (FEMA 2025). Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not risk release of pollutants due to project inundation.
e. The Turlock Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan was adopted by the West and East Turlock Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Agencies on January 28, 2022. In January 2024, the California Department of Water Resources determined that the plan was incomplete and was required to be revised within 180 days. The final revised plan has been re-submitted to the California Department of Water Resources and the Final Revised Turlock Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan was adopted on July 11, 2024.
No review letter from the California Department of Water Resources has been posted on the groundwater sustainability agencies’ website as of January 2025.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would not conflict with this plan because each individual housing site will be required via the Phase II MS4 Permit to prepare a stormwater pollution prevention plan that would illustrate the development’s implementation of on-site treatment control measures that would detain storm water runoff on-site and ultimately drain to nearby water bodies, thereby allowing for groundwater recharge. As concluded in the discussion under checklist question “b,” the Housing Element Update, which is consistent with the General Plan, would not contribute to a substantial depletion of groundwater supplies or interfere substantially with groundwater recharge and, therefore, would not conflict with the sustainable groundwater management plan.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 43 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
11. L AND USE AND PLANNING
Would the project:
Comments:
a. Development associated with the Housing Element Update involves infill development and development on the edges of Ceres, which would not introduce physical divisions that would divide an established community. Additionally, development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with the General Plan policies that prevent “leapfrog development” and encourage well-connected neighborhoods.
Therefore, the Housing Element Update does not involve the development of any sites that would physically divide an established community.
b. As discussed in Section 9.0, Hazards and Hazardous Materials, the Housing Element Update would be consistent with the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan by way of complying with all applicable standards in that plan that apply to the different housing sites within the airport influence zones.
As discussed in Section 6.0, Energy, development associated with the Housing Element Update would comply with the rules and regulations identified in the California Building Code’s Title 24 and, therefore, would not conflict with these regulations.
As discussed in Section 8.0, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to implement the strategies identified within the 2022 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy and, therefore, would not conflict with this plan.
Two of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are located within specific plan areas. Site #1 is located within the West Landing Specific Plan and Site #2 is located within the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan. Both specific plans are implementation mechanisms for the General Plan and their provisions, by state law, are required to be consistent with the General Plan. Development within these sites will be required to comply with the standards and regulations applicable to that specific plan area, which is consistent with the standards and regulations identified in the General Plan.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Physically divide an established community? ☐ ☐ ☐ ☒ b. C ause any significant environmental impact due to a conflict with any land use plan, policy, or regulation
adopted for the purpose of avoiding or mitigating an
environmental effect?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 44 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The General Plan EIR concludes that the impact of conflicting with any applicable land use plan, policy, or regulation of an agency with jurisdiction over the project adopted for the purpose of avoiding or mitigating an environmental effect from implementation of the General Plan is less than significant with implementation of applicable General Plan policies.
The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would be consistent with the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan, the City’s specific plans mentioned previously, the state’s Title 24, and the 2022 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed by the General Plan EIR.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 45 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
12. M INERAL RESOURCES
Would the project:
Comments:
a-b. According to the General Plan EIR, there are no known mineral resources of regional or statewide value, or locally-important mineral resource recovery sites that are delineated on a land use plan (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.15-2). Therefore, the Housing Element Update would have no impact on mineral resources.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Result in loss of availability of a known mineral
resource that would be of value to the region and the
residents of the state?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
b. Result in the loss of availability of a locally important mineral resource recovery site delineated in a local
general plan, specific plan, or other land-use plan?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 46 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
13. N OISE
Would the project result in:
Comments:
a. Temporary Noise Levels. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would generate an increase in temporary noise levels from construction activities and, therefore, would be required to comply with the City’s Municipal Code Chapter 4, Noise, which requires that construction activities occur between the hours of 7:00 A.M. and 8:00 P.M. The Housing Element Update would also be required to comply with General Plan policies found within the Noise Element, such as Policies 5.L.3 through 5.L.5, which all require that noise generated by a project be mitigated so as to not exceed various performance standards within tables presented in the General Plan.
Compliance with the City’s Municipal Code noise ordinance and applicable General Plan policies would ensure that impacts associated with temporary construction noise levels would be less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts associated with temporary noise levels than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Permanent Noise Levels. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would generate traffic, which would increase traffic noise levels along roadways.
Therefore, the Housing Element Update would result in the increase in permanent noise levels as a result of increased growth.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Generation of a substantial temporary or permanent
increase in ambient noise levels in the vicinity of the project in excess of standards established in the local general plan or noise ordinance, or in applicable
standards of other agencies?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Generation of excessive ground-borne vibration or
ground borne noise levels?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. For a project located within the vicinity of a private airstrip or an airport land-use plan or, where such a
plan has not been adopted, within two miles of a
public airport or public-use airport, expose people
residing or working in the project area to excessive
noise levels?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 47 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The General Plan EIR concludes that impacts associated with new traffic noise on existing sensitive receptors (such as residences) would be significant and unavoidable and that no mitigation measures have been identified that would be able to reduce traffic- related noise impacts on existing sensitive receptors (p. 3.11-16).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with General Plan Policy 5.L.7, which requires that new development within the airport influence area (such as the housing sites) comply with the Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan policies regarding noise. Nonetheless, the Housing Element Update is part of this significant and unavoidable impact and, therefore, would result in significant and unavoidable impacts. However, the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts associated with permanent noise levels that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR. b. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would generate ground borne vibration during construction activities. Construction-related vibrations do not typically reach vibration levels that would result in damage to nearby structures (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.11-24). Therefore, as concluded in the General Plan EIR, the Housing Element Update would result in less than significant impacts associated with generating excessive ground borne vibration during construction. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
c. Refer to the discussion in Section 9.0, Hazards and Hazardous Materials, checklist question “e.”
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 48 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
14. P OPULATION AND HOUSING
Would the project:
Comments:
a. The Housing Element Update involves the potential construction of up to 3,193 housing units, which would result in the increase of approximately 11,176 people (California Department of Finance 2024). The General Plan EIR evaluated the potential growth for up to 17,500 residential units at buildout (i.e., year 2035) of the General Plan. This includes housing units anticipated in the West Landing Specific Plan area (3,635 units) and the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan area (372 units). Additionally, since the adoption of the General Plan in 2018 through 2020, the City has permitted 79 units throughout Ceres (California Department of Housing and Community Development 2025) and from 2021 to 2024, the City has permitted 306 units. This results in a remainder of 13,108 housing units anticipated by the General Plan, which covers the housing and population growth projections that are identified in the City’s 6
th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element.
The General Plan EIR concludes that the purpose of the General Plan is to provide for future development of new housing and that there is no feasible mitigation to reduce the significant and unavoidable impact of inducing substantial population growth in the area.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update is part of this significant and unavoidable impact and, therefore, would result in significant and unavoidable impacts.
However, the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
b. There are 44 existing residential units located on the various housing sites; this totals approximately 154 people (44 existing residential units x 3.5 person per residential unit) (California Department of Finance 2024). Implementation of the Housing Element Update involves demolition of these existing structures, which would displace the existing residents. However, the primary objective is to construct new housing to meet the City’s
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Induce substantial unplanned population growth in an area, either directly (e.g., by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (e.g., through extension of
roads or other infrastructure)?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Displace substantial numbers of existing people or
housing, necessitating the construction of replacement
housing elsewhere?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 49 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 regional fair share of new housing. The loss of existing housing would be mitigated by the number of new housing units constructed with implementation of the Housing Element Update. Therefore, the Housing Element Update would result in less than significant impacts associated with the necessary construction of replacement housing elsewhere.
The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 50 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
15. P UBLIC SERVICES
Would the project result in substantial adverse physical impacts associated with the provision of or need for new or physically altered governmental facilities, the construction of which could cause significant environmental impacts, in order to maintain acceptable service ratios, response times, or other performance objectives for any of the following public services:
Comments:
a. The City of Ceres Fire Department, which includes four fire stations located throughout Ceres, would serve the housing sites. The Housing Element Update would result in the increase in population, which would increase the demand on fire services. Therefore, potential impacts to the Ceres Fire Department may occur and require the need for new or physically altered facilities, the construction of which could cause significant environmental impacts.
The General Plan EIR determined that the Ceres Fire Department may need to increase staffing levels in order to provide service for future population growth and that two fire stations, in addition to the one proposed within the West Landing Specific Plan area (i.e., Site #1), may be needed in order to adequately provide fire protection services elsewhere in the planning area. The General Plan EIR states that the construction of new fire facilities, should they be required, would be subject to CEQA requirements for environmental assessment. Between the environmental review process and implementation of applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 6.K.6, which requires new development to develop or fund fire protection facilities, personnel, and operations and maintenance that, at a minimum, maintains the above service level standards, impacts associated with fire protection services in the City would be less than significant (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.12-20).
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Fire protection? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Police protection? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. Schools? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
d. Parks? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
e. Other public facilities? ☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 51 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Additionally, on June 14, 2021, the Ceres City Council approved a contract with Modesto for fire services. Thought a joint services agreement, Modesto Fire now provides fire services within Ceres’ jurisdictional boundaries (City of Ceres 2025).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update will be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies and regulations, such as General Plan Policy 6.K.6 discussed above. As each site associated with the Housing Element Update is considered for development, project-specific environmental analysis would be required. The General Plan EIR adequately addressed the potential impacts of the Housing Element Update on the City’s fire protection services.
b. The City of Ceres Police Department and the Stanislaus County Sheriff’s Department serve the City of Ceres and would serve the housing sites. The Housing Element Update would result in the increase in population, which would increase the demand on police services. Therefore, potential impacts to the City of Ceres Police Department and the Stanislaus County Sheriff’s Department may occur and require the need for new or physically altered facilities, the construction of which could cause significant environmental impacts.
The General Plan EIR states that the payment of development impact fees from new development would ensure that improvements are made in a timely manner to avoid the deterioration of existing facilities. The General Plan EIR also states that the construction of new police protection facilities, should they be required, would be subject to CEQA requirements for environmental assessment. Between the environmental review process, compliance with applicable General Plan policies, and payment of development impact fees, impacts associated with police protection services in the City would be less than significant (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.12-20 and 21).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update will be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies and regulations, such as General Plan Policy 6.J.7, which ensures that new development funds police facilities, personnel, operations, equipment and maintenance that, at a minimum, maintains the response standards. As each site associated with the Housing Element Update is considered for development, project-specific environmental analysis would be required. The General Plan EIR adequately addressed the potential impacts of the Housing Element Update on the City’s police protection services.
c. The Ceres Unified School District serves school-aged children in the City of Ceres . The Housing Element Update would result in an increase in population, which could result in the increase in school-aged children that would attend schools within the Ceres Unified School District. The increase in demand on the school district could result in the need for new or expanded school facilities, the construction of which could cause adverse environmental effects.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 52 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The General Plan EIR states that the projected elementary and high school population at buildout of the General Plan would exceed existing capacity, and the middle school population could be accommodated by existing facilities. However, the elementary school capacity discussed does not account for new elementary school capacity from development of the West Landing Specific Plan (i.e., Site #1), which includes 16 acres for two elementary school sites. Development of the elementary schools within the West Landing Specific Plan is expected to sufficiently accommodate the projected student population at buildout of the General Plan. The General Plan EIR indicates that in order to accommodate additional high school students, the school district would need to expand class sizes, physically expand existing high schools, or construct a new high school. However, new residential development can occur where the individual capacity of nearby elementary or middle schools is limited, resulting in the need for more capacity.
The General Plan EIR concludes that new or expanded school facilities, should they be required, would be subject to environmental assessments under CEQA. New facilities would be subject to policies in the General Plan that would further reduce potential impacts. Therefore, the General Plan EIR concludes that compliance with existing regulations and General Plan policies would ensure that impacts are considered less than significant for public school facilities (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.12-23).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to pay its fair share of school impact fees under Senate Bill 50, which would offset the increased demand of developments on the school facilities. Additionally, development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with applicable regulations and General Plan policies. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR and West Landing Specific Plan EIR. d-e. The Housing Element Update could result in the addition of 11,176 residents to the population of Ceres. To be consistent with the City’s parkland goal (General Plan Policy 6.C.3, 4.0 acres per 1,000 residents), development associated with implementation of the entire Housing Element Update would be required to provide approximately 45 acres of parkland. The construction of new, or expansion of existing, parks and recreational facilities could cause significant environmental impacts.
Future individual development projects associated with the Housing Element Update would be subject to environmental assessment under CEQA and be required to comply with applicable regulations and General Plan policies such as Policy 6.C.4, which requires that new development provide dedicated parkland, in lieu fees, or both, in accordance with the Quimby Act, to meet the recreational needs of new residents.
The General Plan EIR concludes that compliance with existing regulations and General Plan policies would ensure less than significant impacts on park and recreational facilities, as well as administrative facilities and the library (p. 3.12-24). The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 53 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
16. R ECREATION
Comments:
a-b. Development associated with the Housing Element Update could result in the increased use of existing neighborhood parks and other recreational facilities such that physical deterioration of the facility would occur or be accelerated. However, the General Plan EIR evaluated the impacts on recreational facilities as a result of implementation of the General Plan and found that new parks are planned in the eastern and southern portions of the General Plan planning area (i.e., the City of Ceres, its sphere of influence, adjacent unincorporated areas, and Mancini Park in the City of Modesto) in addition to the West Landing Specific Plan area (i.e., Site #1). Provisions are also included in the General Plan that ensure ongoing investment and maintenance in public recreation facilities. The General Plan EIR concludes that with implementation of existing regulations and General Plan policies, impacts associated with substantial physical deterioration of park and recreation facilities resulting from implementation of the General Plan would be less than significant (City of Ceres 2018, p. 3.12-29).
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with the applicable existing regulations and General Plan policies that help reduce or prevent any substantial physical deterioration of existing or new recreational facilities. For example, development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with General Plan Policy 6.C.4, which requires that new development provide dedicated parking, impact and/or in lieu fees, or some combination, to meet the recreational needs of new residents. Therefore, the Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Would the project increase the use of existing
neighborhood and regional parks or other recreational
facilities such that substantial physical deterioration of the facility would occur or be accelerated?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Does the project include recreational facilities or
require the construction or expansion of recreational
facilities, which might have an adverse physical effect on the environment?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 54 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
17. T RANSPORTATIO N
Would the project:
Comments:
a. Roadway Facilities. The General Plan EIR determined that development consistent with the General Plan would result in the operation of some roadways facilities at a continued deficient service level and others are projected to degrade to deficient operations. The General Plan EIR concludes that implementation of applicable General Plan policies, preparation of project-specific transportation impact assessments, and funding improvements to maintain acceptable levels of service would help reduce the demand for vehicle travel within and through the City’s planning area. However, impacts would be significant and unavoidable.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update is part of this significant and unavoidable impact and, therefore, would result in significant and unavoidable impacts.
However, the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
Transit Facilities. Development consistent with the General Plan was determined to increase the demand for public transportation due to new residential and employment uses. The General Plan EIR states that the overall increase in travel demand is expected to worsen the levels of service on some roadways increasing vehicle delays that could reduce the reliability of transit service. The General Plan EIR states that the General Plan provides transit supportive policies that would reduce impacts to a less-than-significant level.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Conflict with a program, plan, ordinance, or policy
addressing the circulation system, including transit,
roadway, bicycle and pedestrian facilities?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. C onflict or be inconsistent with CEQA guidelines
section 15064.3, subdivision (b)?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. Substantially increase hazards due to a geometric
design feature (e.g., sharp curves or dangerous
intersections) or incompatible uses (e.g., farm
equipment)?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
d. Result in inadequate emergency access? ☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 55 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Bicycle Facilities. The General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan would result in less than significant impacts on City bicycle facilities because development would enable the City to improve bicycling programs and infrastructure throughout Ceres. Implementation of applicable General Plan policies was determined to reduce this impact.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 3.F.3, which requires new development to finance and install pedestrian pathways, bikeways, and multi-purpose paths within new development, as appropriate; Policy 3.F.4, which requires that new development provide adequate rights-of-way to accommodate bikeways where identified on the bikeways map and the City’s Bicycle and Pedestrian Master Plan, and to contribute to the development of planned bikeways; and Policy 3.F.5, which requires new multi- family residential to provide bicycle facilities, including bicycle parking. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
Pedestrian Facilities. The General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan would result in less than significant impacts on pedestrian facilities because development would enable the City to improve pedestrian programs and infrastructure throughout Ceres. Implementation of applicable General Plan policies was determined to reduce this impact.
The Housing Element Update would be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies such as Policy 3.F.3, discussed above. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
b. The final guidelines under SB 743, which currently require the evaluation of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for CEQA purposes, had not yet gone into effect when the City’s General Plan EIR was prepared. Therefore, the General Plan EIR conducted a VMT analysis for informational purposes only.
The General Plan EIR determined that it is expected that VMT would increase as a result of development consistent with the General Plan because of the addition of more employment and retail opportunities that have the potential to import vehicle trips from surrounding communities. The implementation of applicable General Plan policies would reduce potential impacts by requiring the preparation of transportation impact assessments to determine project-specific impacts and provide the appropriate mitigation (i.e., implementation of General Plan Policy 3.A.3 – presented below) as well as other General Plan policies that involve coordination with regional agencies to plan for the construction of the regional transportation network through Ceres and the development of a multi-modal transportation network. The following General Plan policies and implementation actions would assist in reducing VMT:
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 56 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Policy 3.A.3 Transportation Impact Analysis. Require transportation analysis to determine the effects of traffic from major development projects (generally those that would generate 100 or more peak -hour trips) or projects that would increase hazards related to t he introduction of incompatible land uses. Each such project shall construct or fund improvements necessary to mitigate the effects of traffic from the project.
Such improvements may include a fair share contribution towards improvements that provide benefits to others.
Policy 3A.4. Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). Support statewide efforts to reduce vehicle miles of travel (VMT) from existing and new development by encouraging infill and mixed- use development, providing a multi -modal transportation network, and incor porating transportation and parking demand management measures into new development by design.
Implementation Action 3.2. Develop transportation impact study guidelines that specify the analysis requirements for specific development types based on their location within the city, the expected level of vehicle trip generation, and the expected effect on vehicle miles of travel. The guidelines should consider final guidance from the Office of Planning and Research related to the evaluation of vehicle miles of travel.
Implementation Action 3.3. As part of developing transportation impact analysis guidelines (Implementation Action 3.2), develop a vehicle miles of travel threshold that reflects the final CEQA guidelines under SB 743.
In the interim period, VMT analysis shall be conducted for informational purposes for any project requiring a transportation impact study.
Policy 4.G.5 Reduce VMT. Emphasize transit -oriented, walkable, compact development patterns to reduce total vehicle miles traveled.
Preparation of project-specific transportation impact assessments would ensure that impacts from development associated with the Housing Element Update, related to CEQA Guidelines Section 15064.3, subdivision (b), would be addressed and mitigated to the extent feasible. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts that have not already been adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR.
c. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would not involve incompatible uses as it only involves new residential development in areas already designated for those uses. Most of the housing sites associated with the Housing Element Update are on relatively small properties that would not involve sharp curves or dangerous intersections as part of the development. Those that are large enough to involve turns or intersections (e.g., Sites #1 and 2) were evaluated by their respective specific plan EIRs.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 57 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 The General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan would not substantially increase hazards due to a design feature. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, would have no impact. d. The General Plan EIR concludes that emergency accessibility is assessed at a project level and, with implementation of applicable General Plan policies such as General Plan Policy
3.A.3 (discussed previously), impacts would be less than significant.
Development associated with the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would be required to comply with applicable General Plan policies that ensure emergency access is provided on all housing sites. Therefore, development associated with the Housing Element Update would not result in inadequate emergency access.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 58 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
18. T RIBAL CULTURAL RESOURCES
Would the project:
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
Comments:
a. The City sent out letters offering consultation pursuant to AB 52 and SB 18 on July 31, 2023. The City has not received responses from any tribe as of February 2024 (Lea Simvoulakis, email message, December 27, 2024).
a. Cause a substantial adverse change in the significance of a tribal cultural resource, defined in Public
Resources Code section 21074 as either a site, feature, place, or cultural landscape that is geographically
defined in terms of the size and scope of the
landscape, sacred place, or object with cultural value
to a California Native American tribe, and that is:
(1) Listed or eligible for listing in the California Register of Historical Resources, or in a local register of
historical resources as defined in Public Resources
code section 5020.1(k), or
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
(2) A resource determined by the lead agency, in its
discretion and supported by substantial evidence, to
be significant pursuant to criteria set forth in
subdivision (c) of Public Resources Code Section
5024.1. In applying the criteria set forth in subdivision (c) of Public Resource Code Section 5024.1, the lead
agency shall consider the significance of the resource
to a California Native American tribe.
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 59 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
19. U TILITIES AND SERVICE SYSTEMS
Would the project:
Comments:
a. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would result in the increase in population and, therefore, an increase in demand on the City’s existing water, wastewater, and storm water drainage facilities. However, it would be speculative at this time to determine the impacts related to construction of new or expansion of existing water, wastewater, and storm water drainage facilities. Impacts from any required expansion of existing infrastructure required by new development associated with the Housing Element Update would be further analyzed under separate CEQA review when determinations are made on the type, scope, and location of the infrastructure improvements. The Housing Element Update’s impacts related to the potential for expansion of existing or construction of new water, wastewater, and storm water drainage facilities would be less than significant. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Require or result in the relocation or construction of new or expanded water, wastewater treatment, storm
water drainage, electric power, natural gas, or
telecommunications facilities, the construction or
relocation of which could cause significant
environmental effects?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Have sufficient water supplies available to serve the project and reasonably foreseeable future
development during normal, single-dry and
multiple- dry years?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
c. Result in a determination by the wastewater treatment provider, which serves or may serve the project that it has inadequate capacity to serve the project’s
projected demand in addition to the provider’s
existing commitments?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
d. Generate solid waste in excess of State or local
standards, or in excess of the capacity of local
infrastructure, or otherwise impair the attainment of
solid waste reduction goals?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
e. Comply with federal, state, and local management and reduction statutes and regulations related to solid
waste?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 60 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 With exception to Sites #1 and 2, the Housing Element Update would facilitate infill development where existing electricity, natural gas, and telecommunications facilities currently exist. Individual development associated with the Housing Element Update would be required to connect into these existing facilities and the impacts of these new connections would be determined under separate CEQA analysis at the time such development is proposed. Therefore, development associated with the Housing Element Update would comply with existing energy efficiency regulations as well as implement applicable General Plan policies, and separate CEQA analysis would occur at the time individual projects are proposed to determine the potential for impacts associated with the new connections. Therefore, the Housing Element Update would result in less than significant impacts related to the potential for construction of new, or expansion of existing, electricity, natural gas, and telecommunications facilities. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR.
b. According to the City of Ceres 2020 Urban Water Management Plan - Final , the City’s water supply is projected to sufficiently meet expected demands through 2040 due to the construction of a 15 million gallons per day (mgd) surface water treatment plant located northeast of Hughson (i.e., approximately 4.5 miles northeast of Ceres), which has a buildout capacity of 30 mgd (City of Ceres 2021).
Urban water management plans are prepared with the support of the surrounding jurisdictions that rely on the water supplies being evaluated. Therefore, the City of Ceres 2020 Urban Water Management Plan - Final included the land uses identified in the City’s General Plan and evaluated in the General Plan EIR when making its conclusions on sustainability and reliability. Development associated with the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and, therefore, there would be sufficient water supplies available to serve the individual housing sites and reasonably foreseeable future development during normal, single-dry and multiple- dry years. c. The General Plan EIR concludes that the City’s wastewater collection and treatment facilities can accommodate the increase in wastewater generation that would occur with development consistent with the General Plan. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed within the General Plan EIR. Therefore, the wastewater generated by development associated with the Housing Element Update would be accommodated by existing facilities.
d, e. The General Plan EIR concludes that development consistent with the General Plan would generate approximately 55,740 tons of solid waste, which would only fill ten percent of the remaining space at the Fink Road Landfill, the location where solid waste in Ceres is primarily disposed of. Additionally, the General Plan EIR determines that the Stanislaus County Regional Solid Waste Planning Agency would be able to meet its disposal targets. The Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan and would not result in new impacts than those already adequately addressed within the
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 61 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 General Plan EIR. Therefore, the wastewater generated by development associated with the Housing Element Update would not generate solid waste in excess of State or local standards, or in excess of the capacity of local infrastructure, or otherwise impair the attainment of solid waste reduction goals.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 62 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
20. W ILDFIRE
If located in or near state responsibility areas or lands classified as very high fire hazard severity zones, would the project:
Comments:
a-d. The City of Ceres is not located within or near state responsibility areas or lands classified as very high fire hazard severity zones. The nearest very high fire hazard severity zones are located approximately 12 miles southwest of Ceres (California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection 2024). No further discussion is required.
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Substantially impair an adopted emergency response
plan or emergency evacuation plan?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
b. Due to slope, prevailing winds, and other factors,
exacerbate wildfire risks, and thereby expose project
occupants to pollutant concentrations from a wildfire
or the uncontrolled spread of wildfire?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
c. Require the installation or maintenance of associated infrastructure (such as roads, fuel breaks, emergency
water sources, power lines or other utilities) that may exacerbate fire risk or that may result in temporary or ongoing impacts to the environment?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
d. Expose people or structures to significant risks,
including downslope or downstream flooding or
landslides, as a result of runoff, post-fire slope
instability, or drainage changes?
☐ ☐ ☐ ☒
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 63 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025
21. M ANDATORY FINDINGS OF SIGNIFICANCE
Comments:
a. As discussed in Section 4.0, Biological Resources, implementation of the Housing Element Update could result in potential impacts to the habitat of several species, two of which are designated as Threatened species. However, implementation of applicable General Plan policies would ensure that the implementation of the Housing Element Update would not have the potential to substantially degrade the quality of the environment; substantially reduce the habitat of a fish or wildlife species; cause a fish or wildlife population to drop below self-sustaining levels; threaten to eliminate a plant or animal community; substantially reduce the number or restrict the range of an endangered, rare, or threatened species. The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts on biological resources than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR, West Landing Specific Plan EIR, and Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan EIR.
As discussed in Section 5.0, Cultural Resources, effects on cultural resources are only knowable once a specific project has been proposed because the effects are dependent on the individual project site conditions, project activities that may alter the character of a built environment resources, and/or the characteristics of the proposed ground- disturbing activity. Development associated with the Housing Element Update is not
Analyzed in the
Prior EIR
Significant
Impact
Less-Than-
Significant or
Less-Than-
Significant with
Mitigation
Incorporated
No
Impact
a. Does the project have the potential to substantially degrade the quality of the environment; substantially
reduce the habitat of a fish or wildlife species; cause a fish or wildlife population to drop below self-
sustaining levels; threaten to eliminate a plant or
animal community; substantially reduce the number or
restrict the range of an endangered, rare, or threatened species; or eliminate important examples of the major
periods of California history or prehistory?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
b. Does the project have impacts that are individually
limited, but cumulatively considerable? (“Cumulatively
considerable” means that the incremental effects of a
project are considerable when viewed in connection
with the effects of past projects, the effects of other current projects, and the effects of probable future
projects)
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
c. Does the project have environmental effects, which
will cause substantial adverse effects on human beings, either directly or indirectly?
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 64 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 anticipated to disturb known historic resources; however, ground-disturbing activities have the potential to damage or destroy previously unknown historic or prehistoric archaeological resources that may be present on or below the ground surface. Therefore, at the time development or redevelopment projects are proposed, the project-level CEQA document would need to identify potential impacts on known or potential historic sites and structures. Based on the City evaluating individual projects for their impact on cultural historic resources, the Housing Element Update would not eliminate important examples of the major periods of California history or prehistory.
The Housing Element Update would not result in new impacts on cultural resources than those already adequately addressed in the General Plan EIR. b. As described in Section 3.0, Air Quality, the Housing Element Update is consistent with the General Plan, and development consistent with the General Plan is required to comply with the General Plan policies that support the implementation of the mobile source strategies and policies that are consistent with the applicable control measures discussed in the 2022 Plan for the 2015 8-Hour Ozone Standard and the 2024 Plan for the 2012 Annual PM2.5 Standard. The General Plan EIR concludes that the amount of growth predicted for the General Plan, which includes the growth predicted for the Housing Element Update, is accommodated by this air quality plan and, therefore, impacts would be less than cumulatively considerable.
Development of the Housing Element Update would result in temporary biological resource impacts on special-status species during construction. However, as described in Section 4.0, Biological Resources, construction impacts would be reduced to a less-than- significant level with implementation of applicable General Plan policies. Therefore, development associated with the Housing Element Update would not have a cumulatively considerable impact on biological resources.
Section 5.0, Cultural Resources, concludes that construction activities could result in the loss of unknown prehistoric or historic subsurface archaeological resources onsite.
Because the development associated with the Housing Element Update would implement General Plan Policy 4.I.2, development associated with the Housing Element Update would not have a cumulatively considerable impact on cultural resources.
As discussed in Section 8.0, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, development associated with the Housing Element Update would generate GHG emissions that will contribute to the cumulative accumulation of GHG emissions is the atmosphere as its effects are not localized to areas where they are produced. Climate change is a global phenomenon resulting from the combined effects of GHG emissions produced worldwide.
Consequently, the analysis of climate change impacts from production of GHGs is inherently cumulative in nature. (See Center for Biological Diversity v. Department of Fish & Wildlife (2015) 62 Cal.4th 204, 219). However, development consistent with the General Plan, such as the Housing Element Update, would meet all state-mandated emissions targets through 2035 even without implementation of applicable General Plan policies and implementation actions that would reduce GHG emissions. Therefore, impacts would be less-than-cumulatively considerable.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section D Evaluation of Environmental Impacts 65 EMC Planning Group City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Section 13.0, Noise, concludes that development associated with the Housing Element Update would result in temporary construction noise impacts. However, compliance with the City’s Municipal Code noise ordinance and applicable General Plan policies would reduce impacts to a less-than-cumulatively considerable level. c. Development associated with the Housing Element Update would have the potential to expose sensitive receptors to construction toxic air contaminant emissions that can lead to increased cancer risks that exceed the air district cancer risk thresholds. Development of the housing sites would be required to comply with all applicable regulatory requirements and standards associated with construction equipment and its potential to emit TACs and impact sensitive receptors. Compliance with these requirements would ensure less than significant impacts. Construction noise would also occur with implementation of the Housing Element Update; therefore, compliance with the City’s Municipal Code noise ordinance and applicable General Plan policies would be required to reduce impacts to a less-than-significant level.
Therefore, implementation of the Housing Element Update would not have environmental effects, which will cause substantial adverse effects on human beings, either directly or indirectly.
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section E Sources 66 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 E. S OURCES
Setting/Background/Methodology
California Department of Housing and Community Development. “Annual Progress Reports - Data Dashboard and Downloads.” Accessed on January 15, 2025. https://www.hcd.ca.gov/planning-and-community-development/housing-element- implementation-and-apr-dashboard
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. June 2018c. Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report (SCH#2017012063). Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. August 2010. West Landing Specific Plan Project – Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH No. 2008122087. Ceres, CA.
https://www.ci.ceres.ca.us/DocumentCenter/Index/1055
Project Description
California Department of Finance. May 2024. “E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, January 2021-2024, with 2020 Benchmark.” Accessed on December 27, 2024. https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/estimates/e-5- population-and-housing-estimates-for-cities-counties-and-the-state-2020-2024/ Aesthetics
California Department of Transportation. “California State Scenic Highway System Map.” Accessed on January 6, 2025.
https://caltrans.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=465dfd3d807c46 cc8e8057116f1aacaa
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
Agriculture
California Department of Conservation. “California Important Farmland Finder.” Accessed on December 27, 2024. https://maps.conservation.ca.gov/DLRP/CIFF/
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Section E Sources 67 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 California Department of Conservation. “California Williamson Act Enrollment Finder.” Accessed on January 13, 2025. https://maps.conservation.ca.gov/dlrp/WilliamsonAct/ City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Air Quality
California Air Resources Board. “PM2.5.” Accessed on January 6, 2025. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/state-and-federal-area- designations/federal-area-designations/pm2-5
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. December 2022. 2022 Plan for the 2015 8-Hour Ozone Standard. Modesto, CA. https://ww2.valleyair.org/media/q55posm0/0000-2022- plan-for-the-2015-8-hour-ozone-standard.pdf
San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. June 2024. 2024 Plan for the 2012 Annual PM2.5 Standard. Modesto, CA. https://ww2.valleyair.org/media/gw5bacvj/2024-pm25- plan.pdf
San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. “Ambient Air Quality Standards and Attainment Status.” Accessed on January 6, 2025. https://ww2.valleyair.org/air-quality- information/ambient-air-quality-standards-valley-attainmnet-status/ Biological Resources
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. June 2018c. Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Draft Environmental Impact Report (SCH#2017012063). Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. August 2010. West Landing Specific Plan Project – Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH No. 2008122087. Ceres, CA.
https://www.ci.ceres.ca.us/DocumentCenter/Index/1055
Cultural Resources
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
Energy
City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Geology and Soils
Department of Conservation California Geological Survey. “Earthquake Zones of Required Investigation.” Accessed on January 2025.
https://maps.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/informationwarehouse/eqzapp/ City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
California Air Resources Board. December 2022. 2022 Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality. Sacramento, CA. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-04/2022- sp.pdf
City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Stanislaus Council of Governments. August 2022. 2022 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy. Modesto, CA.
https://www.stancog.org/DocumentCenter/View/1473/Final-2022-Regional- Transportation-PlanSustainable-Communities-Strategy-RTPSCS Hazards and Hazardous Materials
California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “Fire Hazard Severity Zones in State Responsibility Area.” Accessed on December 28, 2024. https://calfire- forestry.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=988d431a42b242b29d89 597ab693d008
California Environmental Protection Agency. “List of solid waste disposal sites identified by Water Board with waste constituents above hazardous waste levels outside the waste management unit (PDF).” Accessed on December 31, 2024a. chrome- extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://calepa.ca.gov/wp- content/uploads/sites/6/2016/10/SiteCleanup-CorteseList-CurrentList.pdf California Environmental Protection Agency. “List of “active” CDO and CAO from Water Board (MS Excel, 1,453 KB).” Accessed on December 31, 2024b. https://calepa.ca.gov/sitecleanup/corteselist/
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Section E Sources 69 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 California Environmental Protection Agency. “List of hazardous waste facilities subject to corrective action pursuant to Section 25187.5 of the Health and Safety Code, identified by DTSC.” Accessed on December 31, 2024c.
https://calepa.ca.gov/sitecleanup/corteselist/section-65962-5a/?emrc=63f01af3d8806 California Department of Toxic Substances Control. “Envirostor.” Accessed on December 31, 2024. https://www.envirostor.dtsc.ca.gov City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. June 2018c. City of Ceres Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan – Draft Environmental Impact Report (SCH#2017012063). Ceres, CA. https://www.ci.ceres.ca.us/202/Whitmore- Ranch-Specific-Plan
City of Ceres. August 2010. West Landing Specific Plan Project – Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH No. 2008122087. Ceres, CA.
https://www.ci.ceres.ca.us/DocumentCenter/Index/1055
Google Earth. 2024.
Stanislaus County Planning and Community Development Department. October 2016. Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan. Modesto, CA. chrome-extension:// efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.stancounty.com/planning/agenda- aluc/ALUCP.pdf
State Water Resources Control Board. “GeoTracker.” Accessed on December 31, 2024. https://geotracker.waterboards.ca.gov/map/?myaddress=California&from=header&cq id=4177076041
Hydrology and Water Quality
City of Ceres. August 2021. 2020 Urban Water Management Plan - Final. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. Municipal Code. Last updated on January 19, 2024. https://library.municode.com/ca/ceres/codes/municipal_code City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Flood Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). “FEMA Flood Map Service Center: Search By Address.” Accessed on January 9, 2025.
https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search#searchresultsanchor
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Section E Sources 70 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Land Use and Planning
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
Mineral Resources
City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Noise
City of Ceres. Municipal Code. Last updated on January 19, 2024. https://library.municode.com/ca/ceres/codes/municipal_code City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Stanislaus County Planning and Community Development Department. October 2016. Stanislaus County Airport Land Use Compatibility Plan. Modesto, CA. chrome-extension:// efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.stancounty.com/planning/agenda- aluc/ALUCP.pdf
Population and Housing
California Department of Finance. May 2024. “E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, January 2021-2024, with 2020 Benchmark.” Accessed on December 27, 2024. https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/estimates/e-5- population-and-housing-estimates-for-cities-counties-and-the-state-2020-2024/ City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
Public Services
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. “Fire.” Accessed on January 15, 2025. https://www.ci.ceres.ca.us/173/Fire
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Section E Sources 71 EMC Planning Group
City of Ceres 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element Update February 2025 Recreation
City of Ceres. February 2018a. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. May 2018b. Ceres General Plan 2035. Ceres, CA.
Transportation
City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Tribal Cultural Resources
Simvoulakis, Lea, City of Ceres Community Development Director. Email message to consultant, 27 December 2024.
Utilities and Service Systems
City of Ceres. August 2021. City of Ceres 2020 Urban Water Management Plan - Final. Ceres, CA.
City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
Wildfire
City of Ceres. February 2018. Ceres General Plan 2035 Draft Environmental Impact Report SCH#2017052063. Ceres, CA.
California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “Fire Hazard Severity Zones in State Responsibility Area.” Accessed on December 28, 2024. https://calfire- forestry.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=988d431a42b242b29d89 597ab693d008
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Draft 6th Cycle 2023-2031 Housing Element
(dated January 10, 2025) A
APPENDIX
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HCD Revised Draft
6th Cycle Housing Element Update
(2023-2031)
City of Ceres
January 10, 2025
Prepared by
EMC Planning Group
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This document was produced on recycled paper.
HCD REVISED DRAFT
6TH CYCLE HOUSING ELEMENT UPDATE
(2023-2031)
C I T Y O F C E R E S
PREPARED FOR
City of Ceres
Lea Simvoulakis, Community Development Director
2220 Magnolia Street
Ceres, CA 95307
Tel 209.538.5774
PREPARED BY
EMC Planning Group Inc.
601 Abrego Street
Monterey, CA 93940
Tel 831.649.1799
Fax 831.649.8399
Anastazia Aziz, AICP, Principal
[email protected]
www.emcplanning.com
January 10, 2025
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Table of Contents
1.0 I NTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 1-1
1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1-1
1.2 California’s Housing Crisis .............................................................................................. 1-2
1.3 Regional Housing Needs Allocation .............................................................................. 1-3
1.4 Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing .......................................................................... 1-4
1.5 Overview of Planning Efforts ........................................................................................ 1-7
1.6 Public Participation ........................................................................................................ 1-10
2.0 G OALS, POLICIES, AND PROGRAMS .................................................................. 2-1
2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.2 What’s New ....................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.3 Program Overview and Quantified Objectives ............................................................ 2-2
2.4 Goals, Policies, and Programs ........................................................................................ 2-3
3.0 O VERVIEW OF HOUSING NEEDS AND CONSTRAINTS ................................... 3-1
3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3-1
3.2 Overview of Housing Needs .......................................................................................... 3-1
3.3 Governmental and Non-Governmental Constraints ................................................ 3-14
4.0 A FFH ANALYSIS OF THE SITE INVENTORY ...................................................... 4-3
4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 4-3
4.2 Prohousing Community Designation ............................................................................ 4-3
4.3 Regional Housing Needs Allocation .............................................................................. 4-4
4.4 Site Inventory .................................................................................................................... 4-4
4.5 Site Inventory Analysis Requirements ........................................................................... 4-5
4.6 Quadrant- Based Analysis................................................................................................. 4-6
4.7 Census Tract Analysis .................................................................................................... 4-17
4.8 Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................ 4-41
5.0 E NERGY CONSERVATION ................................................................................... 5-1
5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 5-1
5.2 Opportunities for Energy Conservation ....................................................................... 5-1
5.3 Housing Element Programs Related to Energy Efficiency ........................................ 5-2
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Appendices
Appendix A Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report
Appendix B Housing Constraints
Appendix C Vacant and Available Sites
Appendix D Review of Previous Housing Element
Appendix E Outreach and Public Participation
Figures
Figure 4-1 Distribution of Housing Opportunity Sites by Income Designation .................... 4-8 Figure 4-2 Planned Capital Improvement Projects ................................................................... 4-12 Figure 4-3 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas ............................. 4-19 Figure 4-4 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Economic Opportunity ..................... 4-21 Figure 4-5 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Educational Opportunity .................. 4-23 Figure 4-6 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Environmental Health ....................... 4-26 Figure 4-7 Sites Inventory Analysis by Predominant Population ............................................ 4-28 Figure 4-8 Sites Inventory Analysis by Median Income ........................................................... 4-31 Figure 4-9 Sites Inventory Analysis by Poverty Status .............................................................. 4-32 Figure 4-10 Sites Inventory Analysis by Population with a Disability ...................................... 4-35 Figure 4-11 Sites Inventory Analysis by Overcrowding .............................................................. 4-37 Figure 4-12 Sites Inventory Analysis by Cost Burdened Renter Households .......................... 4-40 Tables
Table 1-1 Regional Housing Needs Allocation ........................................................................... 1-3 Table 2-1 Quantified Objectives ................................................................................................... 2-2 Table 3-1 Population Growth by Jurisdiction, 2010- 2019 ........................................................ 3-1 Table 3-2 Population Age Distribution by Jurisdiction, 2019 .................................................. 3-2 Table 3-3 Population by Race by Jurisdiction, 2019 .................................................................. 3-3 Table 3-4 Employment Growth Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020- 2050 .................................... 3-3 Table 3-5 Unemployment Rate, Ceres, 2019 ............................................................................... 3-4 Table 3-6 Housing Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020- 2050............................................................ 3-4 Table 3-7 Households by Income Category, Ceres, 2015- 2019 ............................................... 3-5 Table 3-8 Housing Units by Type and Tenure, Ceres, 2019 ..................................................... 3-6 Table 3-9 Housing Unit Growth Trends by Jurisdiction, 2010- 2019 .................................... 3-11 Table 3-10 Housing Permits by Income Group, Ceres, 2015- 2021 ......................................... 3-12 Table 3-11 Vaca nt Housing Units by Type, Ceres, 2019 ........................................................... 3-13 Table 3-12 Housing Affordability, Ceres, 2022........................................................................... 3-14 Table 4-1 City of Ceres Regional Housing Needs Allocation – 2023–2031 ........................... 4-4 Table 4-2 Overview of Sites Inventory ........................................................................................ 4-5
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Table 4-3 Distribution of Housing Sites and AFFH Indicators .............................................. 4-9 Table 4-4 Site Inventory Unit Count by TCAC/HCD Opportunity Area, 2023 ................ 4-18 Table 4-5 Site Inventory Unit Count by TCAC/HCD Economic Opportunity, 2021 ...... 4-20 Table 4-6 Site Inventory Unit Count by TCAC/HCD Environmental Health, 2021 ........ 4-24 Table 4-7 Site Inventory Unit Count by Diversity Index, 2023 ............................................. 4-27 Table 4-8 Site Inventory Unit Count by Median Income and Poverty Status ..................... 4-29 Table 4-9 Sites Inventory Unit Count by Female-Headed Households ............................... 4-33 Table 4-10 Sites Inventory Unit Count by Population with a Disability ................................ 4-34 Table 4-11 Sites Inventory Unit Count by Overcrowding ........................................................ 4-36 Table 4-12 Site Inventory Unit Count by Cost Burdened Renter Households ..................... 4-38 Table 5-1 Stanislaus County Programs and Incentives for Residential Properties ............... 5-2
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Chapter 1.0 – Introduction 1-1 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Introduction
The City of Ceres is a suburban community regarded for its diversity and tight-knit community. The City’s name “Ceres” originates from the Roman goddess of agriculture, paying homage to the land, the wealth of the community. Strengthened by the support of local businesses, organizations, and nonprofit community service groups, Ceres’ supportive neighborhood character has shaped the existing social fabric. The long-term vitality of Ceres depends upon the availability of various types of housing to satisfy the community’s local housing needs. In addition to the rising costs of development, the city faces the oncoming pressures of being somewhat of an affordable housing outlet for many Bay Area employees, increasing the challenges local residents face in obtaining affordable housing in their community with Altamont Corridor Express, or ACE, rail service around the corner.
As Ceres looks toward the future, increasing the range and diversity of housing options is integral to the City’s success, as well as developing policies and programs that ensure local community members are able to live in the community they work in and support. This Housing Element serves as a continuation of the City’s commitment to ensuring new opportunities for residential development, as well as preserving and enhancing existing neighborhoods.
This 2023-2031 Housing Element represents the City of Ceres’ intent to plan for the housing needs of the Ceres community while meeting the State's housing goals as set forth in Article 10.6 of the California Government Code. The California State Legislature has identified the attainment of a decent home and a suitable living environment for every Californian as the State's major housing goal. The Ceres Housing Element represents a sincere and creative effort to meet local and regional housing needs.
Pursuant to State law, the Housing Element must be updated periodically according to statutory deadlines. This 6
th Cycle Housing Element covers the planning period 2023 through 2031 and replaces the City's 5th Cycle Housing Element that covered the period 2014 through 2023.
Per State Housing Element law, the document must be periodically updated to:
Outline the community’s housing production objectives consistent with State and regional growth projections;
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Describe goals, policies and implementation strategies to achieve local housing objectives; Examine the local need for housing with a focus on special needs populations; Identify adequate sites for the production of housing serving various income levels; Analyze potential constraints to new housing production; Evaluate the Housing Element for consistency with other General Plan elements; and Evaluate Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing.
1.2 California’s Housing Crisis
The 6th Cycle Housing Element update comes at a critical time because California is experiencing a housing crisis, and as is the case for all jurisdictions in California, Ceres is committed to playing its part in meeting the growing demand for housing. In the coming 30-year period, the Stanislaus Council of Governments (StanCOG) region is projected to add 64,266 jobs,1 which represents a 27 percent increase. These changes will increase demand for housing across all income levels, and if the region can’t identify ways to significantly increase housing production, it risks worsening the burden for existing lower-income households, many of whom don’t have the luxury or skill set to move to a new job center but that are nonetheless faced with unsustainable increases in housing cost.
If the region becomes less competitive in attracting high-skilled workers and increasingly unaffordable to lower-income workers and seniors, then social and economic segregation will worsen, only exacerbating historic patterns of housing discrimination, racial bias, and segregation.
This potentiality has become so acute in recent years that the California Legislature addressed the issue with new legislation in 2018. Assembly Bill (AB) 686 requires all state and local agencies to explicitly address, combat, and relieve disparities resulting from past patterns of housing segregation to foster more inclusive communities. This is commonly referred to as Affirmative Furthering Fair Housing, or AFFH.
Like many other communities, Ceres has had little success in meeting its housing needs. In the last housing element cycle (2014-2023), the City issued 79 housing permits. This was only a small fraction of Ceres’ Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA), which called for the construction of 2,571 new housing units. Of the units built, 71 were for above moderate-income housing, seven (7) were for moderate-income housing, and one (1) was for low-income housing.
1 Source: Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast, 2021
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
1.3 Regional Housing Needs Allocation
The 2021 Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast calculates that the StanCOG region will add 50,796 new households between 2020 and 2050, a 28 percent increase. For the eight- year time frame covered by this Housing Element Update, the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) has identified the region’s housing need as 34,344 units. The total number of housing units assigned by HCD is separated into four income categories that cover housing types for all income levels, from very low-income households to market rate housing. 2 This
calculation is based on population projections produced by the California Department of Finance as well as adjustments that incorporate the region’s existing housing need.
All jurisdictions in the StanCOG region received a larger RHNA this cycle compared to the last cycle, primarily due to changes in state law that led to a considerably higher Regional Housing Need Determination (RHND) compared to previous cycles.
In August 2022, StanCOG issued its Final 6th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Allocation Plan. For Ceres, the RHNA to be planned for this cycle is 3,361 units, a substantial increase from the last cycle. Table 1-1 shows the RHNA for Ceres for the planning period 2023 through 2031.
Table 1-1 Regional Housing Needs Allocation
Income Group Percentage of AMI Share
Extremely Low-Income3 0-30 353
Very Low-Income <50 353
Low Income 51-80 489
Moderate-Income 81-120 661
Above Moderate-Income 121+ 1,505
Total 3,361
Source: StanCOG Adopted Final Regional Housing Needs Allocation Plan, 2022
2 HCD divides the RHNA into the following four income categories:
Very Low income: 0-50% of Area Median Income
Low income: 50-80% of Area Median Income
Moderate income: 80-120% of Area Median Income
Above Moderate income: 120% or more of Area Median Income 3 Extremely low-income RHNA is found as a subset within the very low-income category
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
1.4 Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing
In 2018, Assembly Bill (AB) 686, signed in 2018, established an independent state mandate to affirmatively furthering fair housing (AFFH). AB 686 extends requirements for federal grantees and contractors to “affirmatively further fair housing,” including requirements in the federal Fair Housing Act, to public agencies in California. Affirmatively furthering fair housing is defined specifically as taking meaningful actions that, taken together, address significant disparities in housing needs and in access to opportunity by replacing segregated living patterns with truly integrated and balanced living patterns; transforming racially and ethnically concentrated areas of poverty into areas of opportunity; and fostering and maintaining compliance with civil rights and fair housing laws.
AB 686 requires public agencies to:
Administer their programs and activities relating to housing and community development in a manner to affirmatively further fair housing;
Not take any action that is materially inconsistent with the obligation to affirmatively further fair housing;
Ensure that the program and actions to achieve the goals and objectives of the Housing Element affirmatively further fair housing; and
Include an assessment of fair housing in the Housing Element.
The requirement to Affirmatively Further Fair Housing (AFFH) is derived from The Fair Housing Act of 1968, which prohibited discrimination concerning the sale, rental, and financing of housing based on race, color, religion, national origin, or sex—and was later amended to include familial status and disability. The 2015 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Rule to Affirmatively Further Fair Housing and California Assembly Bill 686 (2018) mandate that each jurisdiction takes meaningful action to address significant disparities in housing needs and access to opportunity. AB 686 requires that jurisdictions incorporate AFFH into their Housing Elements, which includes inclusive community participation, an assessment of fair housing, a site inventory reflective of AFFH, and the development of goals, policies, and programs to meaningfully address local fair housing issues.
An AFFH analysis was prepared by EMC Planning Group and is included as Appendix A to this housing element.
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Chapter 1.0 – Introduction 1-5 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Defining Segregation
Segregation is the separation of different demographic groups into different geographic locations or communities, meaning that groups are unevenly distributed across geographic space. This report examines two spatial forms of segregation: neighborhood level segregation within a local jurisdiction and city level segregation between jurisdictions in the StanCOG region.
Neighborhood level segregation (within a jurisdiction, or intra -city ): Segregation of race and income groups can occur from neighborhood to neighborhood within a city. For example, if a local jurisdiction has a population that is 20 percent Latino, but some neighborhoods are 80 percent Latino while others have nearly no Latino residents, that jurisdiction would have neighborhoods which are segregated.
City level segregation (between jurisdictions in a region, or inter -city ): Race and income divides also occur between jurisdictions in a region. A region could be very diverse with equal numbers of white, Asian, Black, and Hispanic and Latino residents, but the region could also be highly segregated with each city comprised solely of one racial group.
There are many factors that have contributed to the generation and maintenance of segregation.
Historically, racial segregation stemmed from explicit discrimination against people of color, such as restrictive covenants, redlining, and discrimination in mortgage lending. This history includes many overtly discriminatory policies made by federal, state, and local governments
4. Segregation patterns
are also affected by policies that appear race-neutral, such as land use decisions and the regulation of housing development.
Segregation has resulted in vastly unequal access to public goods such as quality schools, neighborhood services and amenities, parks and playgrounds, clean air and water, and public safety.5 This generational lack of access for many communities, particularly people of color and lower income residents, has often resulted in poor life outcomes, including lower educational attainment, higher morbidity rates, and higher mortality rates.
6,7,8,9,10,11
4 Source: The Color of Law: A Forgotten History of How Our Government Segregated America, Richard Rothstein, 2017. 5 Source: Segregation and Inequality in Public Goods, Jessica Trounstine, 2015. 6 Source: The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility, Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, 2018. 7 Source: The Wrong Side(s) of the Tracks: The Causal Effects of Racial Segregation on Urban Poverty and Inequality , Elizabeth Ananat, 2011.
8 Source: The Old Jim Crow: Racial Residential Segregation and Neighborhood Imprisonment, Traci Burch, 2014. 9 Source: Are Ghettos Good or Bad?, David M. Cutler and Edward L. Glaeser, 1997. 10 Source: Moving and the Neighborhood Glass Ceiling, Robert J. Sampson, 2012. 11 Source: Stuck in Place: Urban Neighborhoods and the End of Progress Toward Racial Equity, Patrick Sharkey, 2013.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Segregation and Land Use
It is difficult to address segregation patterns without an analysis of both historical and existing land use policies that impact segregation patterns. Land use regulations influence what kind of housing is built in a city or neighborhood.
12,13 These land use regulations in turn impact demographics: they can be used to affect the number of houses in a community, the number of people who live in the community, the wealth of the people who live in the community, and where within the community they reside.14 Given disparities in wealth by race and ethnicity, the ability to afford housing in different neighborhoods, as influenced by land use regulations, is highly differentiated across racial and ethnic groups (Bayer, McMillan, and Reuben 2004).
15 Segregation Patterns in the StanCOG Region
Across the StanCOG region, Hispanic or Latino residents represent the predominant racial/ethnic group followed by non-Hispanic White residents. Stanislaus County has a moderate-high level of segregation, which is primarily represented between these two populations. Additionally, above- moderate and moderate-income residents are significantly more segregated from other racial and income groups. The analysis completed for this report indicates that the amount of racial segregation both within the StanCOG region and across jurisdictions in the region has decreased since the year 2000.
Segregation in Ceres
The following are highlights of segregation metrics as they apply in Ceres. For further information regarding the history of racial segregation, please refer to Appendix A. As of 2019, Hispanic or Latino individuals comprise 61 percent of Ceres’ population followed by non-Hispanic White (24 percent), Asian (7 percent) Black or African American (4 percent), and two or more races (3 percent); and
American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander individuals each represent less than 1 percent of the City’s population.
12 Source: Do Strict Land Use Regulations Make Metropolitan Areas More Segregated by Income?, Michael C. Lens and Paavo Monkkonen, 2016.
13 Source: Local Land Use Regulation and the Chain of Exclusion, Rolf Pendall, 2000. 14 Source: Segregation by Design: Local Politics and Inequality in American Cities, Jessica Trounstine, 2018. 15 Source: An Equilibrium Model of Sorting in an Urban Housing Market, Patrick Bayer, Robert McMillan, and Kim Rueben, 2004.
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Chapter 1.0 – Introduction 1-7 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Ceres’ General Plan and Municipal Code historically emphasized single-family residential development patterns and consequently, the City offers a limited variety of housing types with 79 percent single family detached units. Historically, this type of development contributed to segregation patterns, including in Ceres, due to, among other factors, the higher purchase costs that accompany single-family homes. Though Ceres’ population demographics are more diverse than neighboring jurisdictions within Stanislaus County and restrictive covenants were not enacted specifically in the City, enacting policies and programs that promote AFFH and an inclusive housing stock could assist existing community members in obtaining adequate and affordable housing.
Regional Segregation
The following are highlights of regional segregation metrics as they apply to Ceres. Ceres has a lower share of White residents than the County, a higher share of Hispanic or Latino residents, a higher share of Black residents, and a higher share of Asian and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander residents; and
Regarding income groups, Ceres has a lower share of above moderate-income residents than the County and a higher share of lower income residents.
1.5 Overview of Planning Efforts
This section provides an overview of planning and legislative efforts that provide the context for development of the 6
th Cycle Housing Element.
Effectiveness of Previous Housing Element
The City of Ceres experienced significantly less development than projected in its Quantified Objectives (79 permits issued v. 2,571 projected). It failed to meet its RHNA allocation in every income category. The goals, objectives, policies, and actions in the 2014 Housing Element complied with State Housing Law and provided proper guidance for housing development in the City. In the 2023-2031 Housing Element update, objectives for each of the goals will be modified as appropriate to more specifically respond to the housing environment in Ceres from 2023 to 2031. Policies will also be modified as needed to respond to current housing element law and existing and anticipated residential development conditions. See Appendix D for a complete review and analysis of Ceres’ 5th Cycle Housing Element (2014-2023).
New State Laws Affecting Housing
While the City has taken steps throughout the 5th cycle to increase housing production locally, the State passed numerous laws to address California’s housing crisis during the same period. As the State passes new legislation in the remainder of the 5
th cycle and during the 6th cycle, the City will
continue to amend the Municipal Code; to monitor and evaluate policies and programs designed to meet State requirements; and to proactively implement new policies and programs to help increase housing production citywide.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 1.0 – Introduction 1-8 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 In 2019, several bills were signed into law that include requirements for local density bonus programs, the Housing Element, surplus lands, accessory dwelling unit (ADU) streamlining, and removing local barriers to housing production. The City will implement changes required by State law through amendments to the Ceres Municipal Code. The following is a summary of recent legislation and proposed City activities that will further the City’s efforts to increase housing production during the 6
th cycle. Please see the section above for a discussion of AB 686 (Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing).
Incentives for Accessory Dwelling Units
AB 68, AB 587, AB 671, AB 881, and SB 13 further incentivize the development of accessory dwelling units (ADUs), through streamlined permits, reduced setback requirements, increased allowable square footage, reduced parking requirements, and reduced fees. In March 2020, the City amended its regulations and procedures to make it easier and less expensive to build ADUs.
Additionally, the City has invested in designing eight (8) distinct ADU building plans that property owners may choose from, eliminating costs of structural design plans for property owners. Further changes will be incorporated into the City’s Municipal Code to ensure compliance with new legislation. In addition to these actions, the City will identify options for incentivizing the construction of ADUs that are available specifically for, and affordable to, lower-income households.
Density Bonus
AB 1763 requires jurisdictions to provide a density bonus to development projects that restrict 100 percent of their units as affordable to lower and moderate-income households. Program 1.7 has been included in Chapter 2 of the Housing Element to ensure a timely update of the Zoning Ordinance to comply with State law.
Low-Barrier Navigation Centers
AB 101 requires jurisdictions to allow “low-barrier navigation centers” by-right in areas zoned for mixed uses and in nonresidential zones permitting multifamily uses, if the center meets specified requirements. Program 3.7 has been included in Chapter 2 of the Housing Element to develop by- right procedures for processing Low Barrier Navigation Centers in Ceres.
Surplus Public Land
In 2019, Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order to identify State owned sites to help address the California housing crisis. AB 1255 and AB 1486 seek to identify and prioritize state and local surplus lands available for housing development affordable to lower-income households. As of August 2023, the City is in the process of identifying potential surplus lands, but has not yet identified any.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 1.0 – Introduction 1-9 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Accelerated Housing Production
AB 2162 and SB 2 address various methods and funding sources that jurisdictions may use to accelerate housing production.
Priority Processing
SB 330 enacts changes to local development policies, permitting, and processes that will be in effect through January 1, 2025. SB 330 places new criteria on the application requirements and processing times for housing developments; prevents localities from decreasing the housing capacity of any site, such as through downzoning or increasing open space requirements, if such a decrease would preclude the jurisdiction from meeting its RHNA housing targets; prevents localities from establishing non-objective standards; and requires that any proposed demolition of housing units be accompanied by a project that would replace or exceed the total number of units demolished.
Additionally, any demolished units that were occupied by lower-income households must be replaced with new units affordable to households with those same income levels.
Housing and Public Safety
Finally, in response to SB 379 and other recent state legislation, local jurisdictions must update their safety element to comprehensively address climate adaptation and resilience (SB 379) and SB 1035 (2018) and identify evacuation routes (SB 99 and AB 747). These updates are triggered by the 6 th
Cycle housing element update. This housing element contains an evaluation of the existing safety element and contains programming actions to update the safety element to satisfy the new state requirements. Also, as sites are identified and analyzed for inclusion in the City’s housing site inventory, special attention will be paid to the risk of wildfire and the need for evacuation routes. In this way, the City will coordinate updates to all three elements (land-use, housing, and safety), so that it can direct future development into areas that avoid or reduce unreasonable risks while also providing needed housing and maintaining other community planning goals.
Consistency with General Plan
The City of Ceres General Plan was adopted in May 2018 and is comprised of the following elements: 1) Land Use and Community Design; 2) Transportation and Circulation; 3) Agriculture and Natural Resources; 4) Health and Safety; 5) Public Facilities and Services; and 6) Economic and Community Development.
Ceres’ housing element is being updated at this time in conformance with the 2023-2031 update cycle for jurisdictions in the Stanislaus Council of Governments (StanCOG) region. The housing element builds upon the other general plan elements and contains policies to ensure that it is consistent with other elements of the general plan. As portions of the general plan are amended in the future, the plan (including the housing element) will be reviewed to ensure that internal consistency is maintained.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 1.0 – Introduction 1-10 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
1.6 Public Participation
The City of Ceres’ public participation efforts include extensive outreach including but not limited to the following:
Development of a dedicated housing element update website:
https://engage.emcplanning.com/cereshousingplan;
Housing Element informational flyer educating the public on the 6th Cycle Housing Element Update planning process, Stakeholder Survey, Property Owner Interest Form, and the release of the Public Draft;
Public meetings held to inform the public and elected officials of the 6 th Cycle Housing Element
Update process on the following dates, July 17, August 7, and August 14, 2023; and Formal consultation with representatives from five (5) Native American tribes in Stanislaus County.
For a comprehensive review of outreach, refer to Appendix E – Outreach and Public Participation, which details all public engagement and outreach conducted throughout the 6 th Cycle Housing
Element Update planning process. The following attachments are included with Appendix E:
Attachment A – Public Draft Comment Report
Attachment B – Stakeholder Survey Report
Attachment C – Outreach Materials
Appendix E will continue to be updated throughout the planning process.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-1 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
2.0 Goals, Policies, and Programs
2.1 Introduction
The City of Ceres is responsible for enabling the production of housing by reducing regulatory barriers, providing incentives, and supporting programs that create or preserve housing, especially for vulnerable populations. To enable the construction of quality housing, the City has identified five goals:
Goal 1 Facilitate Housing Construction
Goal 2 Improve the Existing Housing Stock and Pr eserve Affordable Housing Goal 3 Support New Affordable and Other Special Needs Housing Goal 4 Exemplify Sustainable Development and Energy Conservation Goal 5 Publicize Housing Needs and Resources
2.2 What’s New
This section provides an overview of significant new policy and program directions being taken by the City of Ceres to address housing issues in the community and the larger Central Valley Area.
PRO: Prohousing Community
The first new policy direction being taken by the City of Ceres is the decision to pursue becoming a “Prohousing” community. As part of the 2019-20 California Budget Act, AB 101 enacted the Prohousing Designation Program. This program enables the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) to designate jurisdictions throughout the state as Prohousing when they demonstrate policies and planning that accelerate the production of housing. The benefit to jurisdictions receiving the Prohousing designation includes being given preference and, in some cases, additional points, when participating in various state funded programs including the Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities (AHSC) for disadvantaged communities, and Infill Infrastructure Grant (IIG) programs.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-2 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 The City’s submittal of an application to HCD to gain Prohousing designation is planned to be concurrent with the preparation and certification of its 6th Cycle Housing Element. Part of that effort includes the housing sites inventory. Policies and programs that support the City’s designation by HCD as a Prohousing Community are identified with the letters “PRO”.
AFFH: Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing
The next policy direction that the City will undergo during the 6th Cycle Housing Element Update involves addressing historic economic and racial segregation patterns. In 2018, the California Legislature established an independent state mandate to affirmatively further fair housing (AFFH).
Affirmatively furthering fair housing is defined specifically as taking meaningful actions that, taken together, address significant disparities in housing needs and in access to opportunity by replacing segregated living patterns with truly integrated and balanced living patterns; transforming racially and ethnically concentrated areas of poverty into areas of opportunity; and fostering and maintaining compliance with civil rights and fair housing laws.
The City of Ceres is adopting new policies and programs through the update of this 6 th Cycle
Housing Element to align with the state’s new AFFH mandate. Policies and programs that support this alignment are identified with the letters “AFFH.”
2.3 Program Overview and Quantified Objectives
Quantified objectives estimate the number of units likely to be constructed, rehabilitated, or conserved/preserved by income level during the planning period. The quantified objectives do not represent a ceiling on development, but rather set a target goal for the jurisdiction to achieve, based on needs, resources, and constraints. Table 2-1 provides an overview of quantified objectives for Ceres.
Table 2-1 Quantified Objectives
Income Category New Construction Rehabilitation Conservation/Preservation Extremely Low 371 5 353
Very Low 371 5 --
Low 513 10 --
Moderate 711 -- --
Above Moderate 1,683 -- --
SOURCE: City of Ceres
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-3 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
2.4 Goals, Policies, and Programs
The purpose of this section is to set forth goals, policies, and programs to further the development of housing for all income levels in the community. For each program, the following is true unless otherwise noted:
“Responsible Party” is the City of Ceres Community Development Department; and “Funding Source” is anticipated to be the General fund except in cases where it can be grant funded or subsidized via third-party.
GOAL 1: Facilitate Housing Construction
Policies
Policy 1.1: The City shall establish flexible land use regulations through a planned development process for large tracts of land that allows for a range of housing types and densities within a single development.
Policy 1.2: The City shall encourage the use of specific plans and development agreements on large tracts of land to improve the site planning/development process and increase the predictability of the development process.
Policy 1.3: The City shall continue to expeditiously process residential development proposals that conform to General Plan policies and City regulatory requirements.
Policy 1.4: The City shall allow the installation of mobile homes and factory-built housing on permanent foundations in accordance with residential design standards administered by the City. These standards will not distinguish between site built and factory-built homes.
Policy 1.5: The City shall update the capital improvement plan, as needed, for necessary public facilities and services for new residential projects. The plan will provide for a schedule for completion of capital facilities, depending on when they will be needed in conjunction with development.
Policy 1.6: The City shall encourage mixed commercial/housing developments through its planned development process, when said development can contribute to the City's balance of housing in relation to jobs and/or provide affordable housing for low- and moderate- income households.
Policy 1.7: The City will include a variety of housing types and densities in all annexations that include residential development in compliance and support of State mandated annexation requirements and LAFCO annexation approval procedures in accordance with the Cortese-Hertzberg Act.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-4 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Programs
P rog ra m 1.1: No Net Loss of Residential Capacity to Accommodate the RHNA The City will designate sufficient land to meet its RHNA for 2023-2031, reviewing housing production and vacant land annually to assess if General Plan adjustments are needed.
The Planning Division will annually report progress to the City Council on Housing Element goals and ensure compliance with no-net-loss requirements under Government Code Section 65863. A project-by-project evaluation system will track housing units and site capacity by income category for sites identified in the Site Inventory in Appendix C to maintain RHNA targets.
No action can reduce site density unless replacement sites are identified, and if lower-density developments occur, additional sites must be identified within 180 days. A program to secure and ensure the adequacy of these replacement sites will be adopted before or during the development approval process.
To prevent net loss, the City will monitor built densities annually and make adjustments if needed. If multi-family projects are not meeting the densities in the Sites Inventory by December 2027, the City will explore alternative strategies, such as upzoning or increasing density, to ensure sufficient land is available to meet the RHNA.
Implementation Policies: 1.1 and 1.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Review annually; Pursue alternative actions by December 2027, if necessary; Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Submit APR annually to HCD
Performance Metric(s): N/A
(Previously Program 1.0, 1.7, and 1.11)
Program 1.2: Master Plans, Specific Plans, and Planned Developments The City shall require that large tracts of vacant land be developed through a specific plan process or a planned development process, to provide for a mixture of housing types and a range of housing densities. The purpose of this requirement will be to ensure that each undeveloped area within the city limits and the Sphere of Influence contains percentages of land at various densities that correspond to the proportion of the City's regional housing needs for each income group and support housing variety in compliance with Government Code Sections 65583 and 65583.2.
Implementation Policies: 1.2, 1.5 and 1.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: June 2025
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-5 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): N/A
(Previously program 1.3)
Program 1 .3: Smaller Minimum Lot Sizes
The City shall amend the Zoning Ordinance’s minimum lot size requirement for single-family dwelling units to 5,000 square feet in the R-2 District.
Implementation Policies: 1.1
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Complete zoning ordinance amendment by June 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 10 additional housing units for future subdivision and new SFR Performance Metric(s): Amend Zoning Ordinance minimum lot size for SF development in the R-2 district
(Previously program 1.6)
Program 1.4: Infill Site Inventory
The City shall create and maintain a citywide inventory of potential residential infill sites. The sites will consist of vacant and underutilized lots that allow residential uses. To ensure that developers are aware of all potential multi-family residential sites, the inventory will identify commercial land use designations that allow accessorial residential uses above ground floor retail, such as Neighborhood Commercial (C-1), Community Commercial (C-2), Downtown Mixed Use (DMU), Mixed Use (MX- 1/MX-2), and Office/Downtown Office/Administrative Professional (O/DO/A-P) Zoning Districts. The City shall make this information available to the public by posting the inventory on the City’s website and providing the inventory at the Planning Division counter.
Implementation Policies: 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6, and 1.7
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Develop infill site inventory by December 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 10 new infill housing units constructed by July 2031 Performance Metric(s): Expand the City’s affordable housing stock by promoting infill development
(Previously program 1.8)
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-6 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 1.5: Promote Second ary Dwelling Units (ADU and JADU) (PRO) To enable the development of ADU/JADUs with the construction of new single-family units, the City shall require construction of at least 10 percent of new single-family development in the West Landing Specific Plan Area to include either an ADU or JADU. This aims to encourage a balanced mix of housing typologies in the City’s new West Landing community.
To further encourage the development of ADUs and JADUs throughout the City, the City is committed to the following actions:
Continue publicizing ADU/ JADU information in the City's newsletter and general application packet; providing a brochure at the Planning Division and posting information on the City's website. Information will include permit requirements, changes in State law, and benefits of secondary dwelling units to property owners and the community. The City shall review and update the promotional materials on an annual basis.
Continue to implement the development of ADU/JADUs through a ministerial process in conformance with State law. The City will develop guidance materials and create a Frequently Asked Questions webpage.
Prioritize permit processing, reduce permit fees, and continue to provide and promote eight unique and free, pre-approved plans for ADU/JADUs.
Monitor permitted ADU/JADUs and their affordability levels on a bi-annual basis to determine the success of the incentive program and if modifications to the program are necessary.
Additionally, based on the number of ADU/JADUs permitted and their affordability, the City will adjust ADU/JADU development assumptions by December 2027, if necessary.
Additionally, the City will update its ADU Ordinance in accordance with State law by June 2025.
Implementation Policies: 1.1, 1.6, and 1.7
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Monitor the number of ADU/JADUs permitted and affordability bi-annually; If necessary, adjust ADU/JADU assumptions by December 2027; Prioritize permit processing and provide eight unique pre-approved plans for ADUs (ongoing); Review and update promotional materials annually; and Adopt ADU Ordinance that complies with State law by June 2025.
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 5 ADU/JADUs (other than the West Landing area) by July 2031 Performance Metric(s): Incentivize ADU/JADU construction through implementing public marketing and developer incentives
(Previously program 1.2)
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-7 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 1.6: Zoning for Transitional and Permanent Supportive Housing In compliance with SB 2, the City will continue to allow transitional/supportive housing as a residential use, subject only to those requirements of other residential dwellings of the same type in the same zone.
The City will also amend the Municipal Code to allow supportive housing by-right, requiring no discretionary review in zones where multi-family and mixed-uses are permitted, including nonresidential zones permitting multi-family uses (Government Code Section 65651).
Implementation Policies: 1.1, 1.6, and 1.7
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: June 2025
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Five new transitional or supportive housing units constructed by June 2031
Performance Metric(s): Amend the Municipal Code by June 2025 to make provision for transitional and permanent supportive housing
Program 1.7: Amend the Zoning Ordinance to align with Density Bonus State Law (PRO ) In 2020, the City updated the Density Bonus Program as part of their Zoning Ordinance. Chapter
18.39 of the City’s Zoning Ordinance provides a detailed description of the program. The City’s Density Bonus Program was adopted to contribute significantly to the economic feasibility of affordable housing in proposed developments by offering incentives to developers consisting of density bonuses or other concessions of equal financial value, in compliance with Government Code sections 65915 and 65917.
Density bonuses serve as incentives to provide very low- and low-income housing. According to State law, a density bonus of at least 50 percent over the maximum authorized will be allotted for any housing development consisting of 24 percent low-income units or 15-percent very low-income units. The City shall also update the Zoning Ordinance to be consistent with the newly adopted General Plan.
Implementation Policies: 1.1, 1.2, and 1.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Amend Zoning Ordinance by December 2024
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 20 Housing units affordable to lower-income households by July 2031
Performance Metric(s): Amend Zoning Ordinance to update Density Bonus Law
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-8 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 1.8: Streamline Permit Processing Procedures (PRO) Processing and permit procedures can pose a considerable constraint to the production and improvement of housing. Unclear permitting procedures add uncertainty in the development of the project, and increase overall financial risk assumed by the developer.
The Municipal Code will be updated to simplify and clarify both the required permit type(s) for multi-family residential uses and the decision-making authority. Additionally, the City will develop an associated easy-to-read handout that clearly illustrates the process and develop a universal application for planning permits. These changes will increase certainty and improve the transparency of entitlement procedures.
The City will also complete the following actions:
Establish permit processes that take 4 months or less; Streamline permit procedures to minimize the levels of review and approval required for projects;
Establish a single point of contact across departments in which entitlements are coordinated through City approval functions from entitlement application to certificate of occupancy; Establish a standardized application form for all entitlement applications; Limit the total number of required hearings for any project to three or fewer; and Publicly post status updates on project permit approvals on the City website.
Implementation Policies: 1.3
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Update Municipal Code by June 2025
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Simplify and streamline permit processing procedures by June 2025
Program 1.9: Changes to the Zoning Code
In an effort to increase housing development for all income categories towards meeting RHNA goals, the City of Ceres will make the following changes to the Zoning Code:
General Amendments to Zoning Code
Update the Zoning Code to ensure that allowable locations of residential and mixed-use zoning districts are fully consistent with the General Plan Land Use Diagram;
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-9 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Prohibit single-family detached residential uses in the R-3, R-4, and R-5 Districts; Codify SB 9 regulations to facilitate new construction on single-family parcels according to Government Code Sections 66452.6, 65852.21 and 66411.7; Establish minimum density requirement of 7 dwelling units per acre in the R-3 Zoning District; Establish minimum density requirement of 12 dwelling units per acre in the R-4 Zoning District; Establish minimum density requirement of 20 dwelling units per acre in the R-5 Zoning District; Amend development standards for the R-3, R-4, and R-5 Zoning Districts to permit a minimum lot coverage of 70 percent and maximum front-yard setbacks of 15 feet; Increase permitted FAR in R-3 Zoning District to allow a FAR of at least 0.60 for single-story buildings on interior lots and a FAR of at least 0.70 for single-story buildings on corner lots; Increase permitted FAR in R-4 Zoning District to allow a FAR of at least 0.70 for single-story buildings on corner lots;
Increase permitted FAR in R-5 Zoning District to allow a FAR of at least 0.70 for single-story buildings on corner lots;
Reduce parking standards for R-3, R-4, and R-4 Zoning Districts to require one and a half (1.5) parking spaces regardless of the number of bedrooms and further reduce to on-half (0.5) parking spaces for affordable residential units;
Identify height limit for the M-1 Zoning District of a maximum of 50 feet requiring no Planning Commission approval; and
Remove the on-site improvement requirement for a wall or vegetative barrier for multi-family projects located adjacent to single-family uses.
Permit Zoning for a Variety of Housing Types According to State Law Add the definition for Single Room Occupancy (SROs), and permit SROs by-right, requiring no discretionary review in all zones that allow mixed-uses; Eliminate open space and parking requirements for SROs; Permit mobile and manufactured housing in all zones (specifically the R-A Zone) where single- family residential is allowed, in compliance with Government Code Section 65852.3(a); Amend the definition of emergency shelters in compliance with AB 2339, Statutes of 2022; Amend the written development standards for emergency shelters to allow proximity requirements in compliance with Government Code Section 65583.(a)(4), such that emergency shelters shall not be required to be more than 300 feet apart;
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-10 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Amend the written development standards for emergency shelters to require parking consistent with AB 139, requiring only sufficient parking to accommodate all staff working in the emergency shelter;
Permit emergency shelters by-right in the Highway Commercial Zone (H-1) and PC Zone with Service Commercial General Plan Designation;
Review all development standards, related to emergency shelters, and make necessary revisions to ensure consistency with State Law;
Permit residential care facilities serving six or fewer persons as a single-family use, subject only to the generally applicable, nondiscriminatory health, safety, and zoning laws that apply to all single-family residences; and
Permit residential care facilities serving seven or more persons in all zones allowing residential uses, only subject to requirements of other residential uses of the same type in the same zone.
Implementation Policies: N/A
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Complete all zoning code amendments by January 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Amend Municipal Code to facilitate residential development
Program 1 .1 0: West Landing Specific Plan Development The City’s housing sites inventory includes the West Landing Specific Plan (WLSP) Area (Site 1), which is anticipated to develop a total of 2,631 residential units over the eight-year planning period.
The housing distribution for this site is planned as follows:
Lower-income units: 865 multi-family dwelling units;
Moderate-income units: 459 townhouse/single-family dwelling units; Above moderate-income units: 1,307 single-family dwelling units; and ADUs: 131 units (30, 30, 30, 10 distribution rule of thumb).
Multi-Family Residential Development and ADU/JADU Requirements To enable the development of ADU/JADUs with the construction of new single-family units, the City shall require construction of at least 10 percent of new single-family development in the West Landing Specific Plan Area to include either an ADU or JADU. This aims to encourage a balanced mix of housing typologies in the City’s new West Landing community.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-11 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 The City will actively monitor the issuance of building permits for multi-family residential units and ADUs throughout this period. If development progress falls short of achieving the construction targets of 300 multi-family residential units and 65 lower-income ADUs by Winter 2028, the City will reassess its land use strategies. Necessary amendments to zoning or other land use documents will be undertaken to meet RHNA requirements and ensure continued progress towards meeting housing development goals.
Infrastructure Improvements
The WLSP Area requires development of a tertiary treatment plant and installation of a sewer lift to provide wastewater service to the area. To ensure the tertiary treatment plant is constructed in a timely manner along with all other infrastructure improvements, the City is committed to the following actions:
Develop and complete cost-sharing agreement for extension of sewer facilities along Service Road in WLSP Area by Fall 2024;
Complete extension of sewer facilities along Service Road by Summer 2025; Begin construction of tertiary treatment plant and sewer lift station by Summer 2025; and Completion of tertiary treatment plant and sewer lift station by Summer 2027.
The City will collaborate with developers to ensure the timely construction of infrastructure, thereby facilitating the readiness of units for occupancy within the eight-year planning cycle.
If by December 2025, the City has not developed a cost-sharing agreement for the extension of sewer facilities along Service Road, and if construction of the tertiary treatment plant and sewer lift station has not commenced, the City will consider alternative land use strategies and make necessary amendments to zoning or other land use documents to make available appropriate land for the development of housing to meet the RHNA. Specific actions the City may take include upzoning or increasing density to accommodate more residential units.
Subdivision Process
Further, the project requires subdivision of parcels to accommodate residential uses. To ensure the subdivision process is completed promptly to facilitate residential development within the planning period, the City is committed to the following actions:
Conducting outreach with property owners and non-profit affordable housing developers to maintain project momentum;
Providing density bonuses in accordance with State law; Reducing fees and expediting permitting processes to shorten time to market;
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-12 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Offering technical assistance and resources, such as navigating regulatory requirements; and Marketing the SB 35 by-right approval process when development plans include 20 percent affordable units.
Implementation Policies: 1.7
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Complete infrastructure improvements by Summer 2027; 300 lower-income multi-family building permits by January 2028; 65 lower-income ADU building permits by January 2028
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 572 VL units, 293 LI units, 459 M units, 1,307 AM units, and 131 ADUs
Performance Metric(s): Facilitate development in the West Landing Specific Plan Area
P rog ra m 1.11: N on-Discretionary Approval Process for 4 th and 5 th Cycle Reused Sites The City shall implement a by-right non-discretionary approval process option for sites listed with the 6th Cycle Sites Inventory per Government Code 65583.2(c) for vacant sites previously identified in the 4th and 5th Cycle Housing Elements, and for non-vacant sites previously identified in the 5th Cycle Housing Elements when a developer builds at least 20 percent affordable units to accommodate the low- and very low-income RHNA. This applies to all sites identified in the Sites Inventory (see Appendix C). This will simplify the permitting process, reduce fees and potential permit appeals.
By-right means a jurisdiction shall not require the following:
Conditional Use Permit;
Planned Unit Development Permit;
Design review other than Objective Development Design Standards; or Other discretionary, local government review or approval that would constitute a “project” as defined in Section 2100 of the Public Resources Code (California Environmental Quality Act “CEQA”).
Sites 1 and 2 are required to comply with the Subdivision Map Act, which requires that subdivision of land be approved by the City. Therefore, Sites 1 and 2 will require discretionary review for the subdivision of land, but all other relevant planning entitlements will meet by-right requirements as outlined above.
Implementation Policies: N/A
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Update Municipal Code by December 2024
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-13 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Facilitate development of 4th and 5th cycle reused sites
Program 1.12: Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Development The City’s housing sites inventory includes the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Area (Site 2), which is anticipated to develop a total of 372 residential units over the eight-year planning period. The housing distribution for this site is planned as follows:
Lower-income units: 137 multi-family dwelling units;
Moderate-income units: 67 townhouse/single-family dwelling units; and Above moderate-income units: 168 single-family dwelling units.
The City's Economic Development Manager is collaborating with non-profit affordable housing developers to evaluate the feasibility of constructing affordable multi-family units in the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Area. To encourage early multi-family residential development, the City is encouraging interested developers to construct multi-family concurrently with single-family projects.
Recognizing the higher costs of multi-family construction, the City is committed to offering developer incentives, including the following:
Conducting outreach with property owners and non-profit affordable housing developers to maintain project momentum;
Providing density bonuses in accordance with State law; Reducing planning permit entitlement fees for affordable housing projects with deed-restricted units by 50 percent;
Deferring payment of impact fees until prior to issuance of Certificate of Occupancy. Expediting planning review and processing for affordable housing projects; and Offering technical assistance and resources, such as navigating regulatory requirements to ensure maximum development potential is achieved.
Since the project requires subdivision of parcels to accommodate residential uses, these actions are also intended to ensure the subdivision process is completed promptly to facilitate residential development within the planning period.
Additionally, the City will proactively pursue funding opportunities to facilitate the extension of existing infrastructure, including sewer, water, and dry utilities, to support new development.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-14 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 The City will actively monitor the issuance of building permits for multi-family residential units and ADUs throughout this period. If development progress falls short of achieving the construction target of 65 lower-income residential units by Winter 2027, the City will implement alternative land use strategies and make necessary amendments to zoning or other land use documents to make available appropriate land for the development of housing to meet the RHNA. Specific actions the City may take include upzoning or increasing density to accommodate more residential units.
Implementation Policies: 1.7
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: 65 lower-income building permits by Winter 2027; Annually conduct outreach with property owners and developers; Annually pursue funding opportunities to support development and infrastructure improvements.
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 137 VL units, 67 MI units, 168 AM units Performance Metric(s): Facilitate development in the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Area
P rog ra m 1.13 Prepare Checklist and Procedures for SB 35 and SB 330 Government Code section 65913.4 allows qualifying development projects with a specified proportion of affordable housing units to move more quickly through the local government review process and restricts the ability of local governments to reject these proposals.
The City will create a SB 35 checklist and written procedures for processing SB 35 applications to ensure efficient and complete application processing and will update the documents in conformance with any changes to state law within twelve months of adoption of new laws. Additionally, the City will develop an application for SB 330 in conformance with State law.
Implementation Policies: 1.7
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: June 2025 and within 12 months of any change to the law that would impact the City
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Reduced approval timeframes
P rog ra m 1.14 Adopt Approval Findings for Residential Development Currently, the City lacks an approved list of approval findings for development. To ensure residential projects are reviewed based on objective criteria, the City will adopt the following findings of approval.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-15 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
1. The proposed project is consistent with the objectives of the General Plan, complies with applicable zoning regulations, Planned Development, Master Plan or Specific Plan provisions, Improvement Standards, and other applicable standards and regulations adopted by the City.
2. The proposed project will not create conflicts with vehicular, bicycle, or pedestrian transportation modes of circulation.
3. The site layout (orientation and placement of buildings and parking areas), as well as the landscaping, lighting, and other development features, is compatible with the General Plan and contributes to development of the City.
This will reduce uncertainty and streamline the approval process for residential developments.
Implementation Policies: 1.3
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Adopt Approval Findings by December 2024
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Reduced approval timeframes and increased approval certainty
P rog ra m 1.15 Facilitating Development of Nonvacant Sites The Sites Inventory includes 16 nonvacant sites requiring collaboration with property owners to meet the City's RHNA. To support development on these sites, the City will:
Engage Stakeholders: Conduct outreach to property owners and non-profit affordable housing developers to sustain project momentum of nonvacant sites; Incentivize Development: Provide density bonuses in compliance with State law; Reduce Costs: Offer a 50 percent reduction in planning permit entitlement fees for affordable housing projects with deed-restricted units;
Defer Fees: Allow the deferral of impact fee payments until the issuance of a Certificate of Occupancy;
Streamline Processes: Expedite planning review and approval for affordable housing projects; and
Provide Support: Offer technical assistance and resources to navigate regulatory requirements, ensuring the achievement of maximum development potential.
The City remains committed to fostering collaboration and providing resources to ensure the successful development of housing on nonvacant sites.
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-16 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Implementation Policies: 1.1 and 1.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Conduct outreach with property owners and developers annually to outline available incentives for nonvacant site development.
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Planning permit entitlements for 16 nonvacant sites as outlined in Sites Inventory (see Appendix C).
Performance Metric(s): Number of nonvacant sites permitted by June 2031.
GOAL 2: Improve the Existing Housing Stock and Preserve Affordable Housing
Policies
Policy 2.1: The City shall promote infill residential development within the Downtown Area and other older parts of the City where adequate public facilities and services are already in place for small projects that can be integrated with existing neighborhoods.
Policy 2.2: The City shall foster the development of vacant and underutilized infill sites by giving priority through expedited application processing to applicants who are developing infill sites over applicants proposing greenfield development projects.
Policy 2.3: Where appropriate, the City shall encourage the consolidation of parcels designated for multi-family residential development when it facilitates efficient development of the parcels.
Policy 2.4: Preserve existing Housing Stock.
Programs
Program 2.1: Preserve Mobile Home Parks
Mobile home parks offer an affordable housing option for many lower-income households. In Ceres, there are several mobile home parks, including Lazy Wheels, Ceres Mobile Estates, and Ceres West Mobile Home Park. To preserve existing mobile home parks, the City will implement a Residential Mobile Home Park zoning ordinance that sets conditions on changes of use or conversions of mobile home parks. The City will also explore utilizing state and federal programs designed to preserve affordable housing, including mobile home parks, rent stabilization measures for mobile home parks, and resident ownership programs. Additionally, the City shall encourage innovative restoration and rehabilitation efforts for mobile home parks.
Implementation Policies: 1.4 and 2.1
Responsible Department: Community Development Department
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-17 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Timeframe: Implement Residential Mobile Home Park Zoning Ordinance by June 2026; Annually monitor and regulate the conversion of mobile home parks Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Grant-funded rehabilitation of 20 Mobile Home units Performance Metric(s): Regulate the conversion of mobile home parks; Implement Residential Mobile Home Park Zoning Ordinance
(Previously program 1.5)
Program 2.2: Affordable Housing Sustainable Design
The City shall require that developers of affordable rental housing projects provide information showing how the project will be managed to maintain units in sound condition.
Implementation Policies: 2.1 and 2.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: December 2025
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Conservation of 25 units
Performance Metric(s): N/A
(Previously program 7.0)
Program 2. 3: Housing Rehabilitation Programs
The City of Ceres will actively collaborate with the Stanislaus County Consortium to ensure housing rehabilitation funding is pursued and directed toward addressing the community's needs. The City will engage with the Consortium at least annually to identify priorities and secure resources for housing rehabilitation initiatives.
Implementation Policies: 2.1 and 2.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Pursue funding opportunities available through HUD 2-3 times per year; monitor the NOFA calendar on a quarterly basis
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Rehabilitate 20 homes in need of maintenance Performance Metric(s): Number of permits submitted for rehabilitation/maintenance (Previously program 4.0)
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-18 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 2.4: Preservation of Rental Housing (PRO)
The City shall monitor the status of all affordable units, especially those at-risk of converting to market rate. The City will provide proactive assistance to preserve and enhance the quality of existing rental housing in Ceres. This City currently has six subsidized housing developments, providing a total of 352 deed-restricted affordable rental units.
Ceres Christian Terrace is a HUD subsidized affordable housing apartment community that includes 67 deed-restricted affordable units. The estimated affordability end date is July 31, 2029. The City will coordinate with HUD to determine if deed-restrictions are intended to be extended for the 67 units. If necessary, the City shall identify potential buyers of the at-risk project, such as the Housing Authority of Stanislaus County or a local non-profit organization or housing developer, and identify possible sources of City funding, such as housing set-aside funds to supplement State and Federal sources, such as tax credits.
When a Notice of Intent (NOI) to convert from low-income housing to market-rate housing is received (three years and six months in advance pursuant to Government Code Section 65863.10(b), (c), and (e)), the City will work with property owners to ensure that affected households, local agencies, and prospective tenants are properly noticed and provided information on potential resources for assistance, and any applicable displacement and relocation requirements are complied with.
The City shall also provide assistance by coordinating with residents and directing them to the Stanislaus County Housing Authority to obtain Housing Choice Vouchers. Additionally, the City shall pursue State and Federal monies to provide subsidized assistance to affordable housing units at-risk of converting to market-rate.
Implementation Policies: 2.3
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Conduct outreach and provide assistance to Ceres Christian Terrace tenants by December 2025; Monitor status of the City’s at-risk units annually; Identify potential buyers and sources of funding for at-risk projects when projects have filed an NOI; Annually investigate new funding and financing opportunities to encourage the acquisition/rehabilitation of existing rental housing and conversion into long-term affordable housing; Pursue one acquisition/rehabilitation project over eight-year planning period.
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Monitor and preserve 353 deed-restricted affordable units Performance Metric(s): Maintain the City’s existing affordable rental housing stock (Previously Program 4.1)
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-19 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 2.5: Replacement Unit Program (PRO)
The City of Ceres will adopt a policy and will require replacement housing units subject to the requirements of Government Code section 65915, subdivision (c)(3) on sites identified in the site inventory when any new development (residential, mixed-use, or nonresidential) occurs on a site that is identified in the inventory meeting the following conditions:
Currently has residential uses or within the past 5 years has had residential uses that have been vacated or demolished;
The housing unit was subject to a recorded covenant, ordinance, or law that restricts rents to levels affordable to persons and families of low or very low-income; The housing unit was subject to any other form of rent or price control through a public entity’s valid exercise of its police power; and/or
The housing unit was occupied by low or very low-income households.
Implementation Policies: 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Adopt Replacement Unit Policy by June 2025
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Replacement of 44 units
Performance Metric(s): Implement anti-displacement measures to provide replacement units for applicable sites
Program 2.6: Reduce Multi -Family Parking Requirements (New) Parking requirements increase costs to residential development and take up valuable space that can be used for housing. To encourage the construction of affordable multi-family housing, the City will offer reduced parking requirements for affordable residential units, requiring one-half (0.5) parking spaces. Furthermore, in multi-family residential zoning districts (R-3, R-4, and R-5), parking requirements will be reduced to one and a half (1.5) parking spaces, regardless of the number of bedrooms.
Implementation Policies: N/A
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Adoption of Municipal Code amendments by June 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Reduced parking for affordable units
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-20 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 2.7: Promote Walkability and Active Transportation (PRO) The City will continue to promote walkability and active transportation in compliance with the goals outlined in the Ceres Active Transportation Plan, adopted in 2021. Specifically, the City is committed to the following actions:
Leverage ATP awarded grant funding to improve infrastructure in low resource areas of the city. Seek additional funding through federal, state, and regional sources such as, ATP grants, California Transportation Commission Local Partnership Program funds, Sustainable Communities Grant, and Safe Routes to School Program funds, to implement projects identified in the City’s ATP, including pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure improvements. Collaborate with StanRTA to expand and improve transit routes that connect low-income neighborhoods with employment centers, schools, and other essential services. Prioritize pedestrian corridor projects, sidewalk and ADA improvements, and bike trail development, particularly in disadvantaged and lower-income areas of the city. Dedicate Capital Improvement Program (CIP) funding to support infrastructure projects that enhance walkability and active transportation, with a focus on areas most in need of improved connectivity.
Integrate active transportation improvements into other infrastructure projects, such as stormwater and sewer upgrades, to maximize efficiency and impact. Engage with the community through outreach and education initiatives to encourage walking, biking, and public transit use as sustainable and healthy transportation options.
By implementing these actions, the City will enhance walkability, improve access to active transportation, and create a more connected, equitable, and sustainable community.
Implementation Policies: N/A
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Ongoing; Annually identify active transportation improvements in low-income areas; Annually conduct community active transportation workshop/event; Annually review CIP status and availability of funding for new infrastructure projects to enhance connectivity.
Geographic Target: Census Tracts 25,04, 25.05, 26.02, 26.03, 27.02, 30.03, 30.04, and 31 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Annually review projects that progress the goals of the Ceres Active Transportation Plan and prioritize such development on annual basis
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-21 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 GOAL 3: Support Opportunities for New Affordable and Special Needs Housing
Policies
Policy 3.1: The City shall encourage a mix of housing types throughout the city in order to increase residential choices. The specific mix of housing for any particular neighborhood should depend on existing land uses within and surrounding the neighborhood, the environmental characteristics of undeveloped land within the neighborhood, and the capacity of public services and facilities within the neighborhood.
Policy 3.2: The City shall promote the development of second units (ADUs) in appropriate locations to increase the availability of affordable housing.
Policy 3.3: The City shall plan for a full range of housing types in relation to employment centers in Ceres, transportation, and commercial services.
Policy 3.4: The City shall require that higher density housing be located in areas served by the full range of urban services and near existing or potential public transit routes and employment centers.
Policy 3.5: The City shall encourage the development of new residential projects that are designed to facilitate non-automobile modes of travel as described in the Transportation and Circulation Element.
Policy 3.6: Prioritize the development of affordable housing for Extremely-low Income residents and those with Special Needs (New).
Programs
Program 3.1: Housing Diversity (PRO )
To improve housing mobility and promote more housing choices and affordability throughout Ceres, the City will employ a suite of actions to be targeted in lower density areas, including outreach, resources and other strategies with an overall goal of expanding housing opportunities affordable to extremely low, very low, low, and moderate-income households. Actions and strategies include the following.
1. Collaboration with non-profit affordable housing developers: The City will collaborate with and encourage developers of large subdivisions to include a range of housing types, including multi- family, mixed-use, townhomes, condominiums, clustered-unit development, accessory dwelling units, and mobile homes/manufactured housing in their developments and give priority towards annexing developed areas that enable increased opportunities for affordable housing or a range of housing types. Use a variety of incentives including zoning and land use controls, flexible
ATTACHMENT G
ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-22 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 development standards, technical assistance, and expedited processing to promote affordable housing and to promote a range of housing types. The City of Ceres will also establish ministerial approval processes for a variety of housing types, including single-family and multifamily housing.
2. Accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and other “missing middle” housing in lower-density zones:
The City will continue to provide eight free, pre-approved ADU building plans, publicize ADU and JADU incentives, such as reduced permit fees and prioritized permit processing. The City will also develop and publish informational materials to guide interested residents and developers through the application process. See Program 1.5 for additional details.
3. Marketing of housing resources and opportunities: The City will provide housing resources and information available through various City and regional in-person and virtual outlets in multiple languages. See Program 5.1 for additional details.
4. Down Payment Assistance Loan Program: The City will continue to provide referrals to the Stanislaus County First Time Home Buyer program. See Program 5.3 for additional details.
5. Local Universal Design Ordinance: The City will adopt local Universal Design guidelines applicable to single-family, duplex, and tri-plex projects. See Program 3.9 for additional details.
Implementation Policies: 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, and 3.6 Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Annually review overall progress and effectiveness in April and include information in annual report to HCD. If the City is not on track to meet its 1,195 lower- income housing unit goal for the 6
th cycle RHNA by June 2027 (I.e.: 597 lower-income units built or in process by 2027), the City will consider alternative land use strategies and make necessary amendments to zoning or other land use documents to facilitate a variety of housing choices, including but not limited to, strategies that encourage missing middle zoning (small scale multi-unit projects up to four-plexes) in addition to lot splits/additional housing units, adaptive reuse, and allowing additional ADU/JADUs, within six months, if sufficient progress toward this quantified objective is not being met.
Geographic Target: Census Tracts 25.05, 25.04, 26.03, 30.03, and 30.04 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Building permits for 1,195 lower-income housing opportunities by December 2031
Performance Metric(s): Facilitate development of diverse housing types (Previously program 1.4 to expedite approvals)
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-23 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 3.2: Advocate for Additional State and Federal Financial Commitments to Housing (PRO)
The City shall continue to pursue available and appropriate state and federal funding sources in cooperation with private developers, non-profit housing corporations, and other interested entities to support efforts to meet the new construction needs of low- and moderate-income households and to assist persons with rent payments required for existing units. Whether the City applies for funding individually, receives funds as part of the Stanislaus Urban County, or through a formal Joint Powers Agreement with other public agencies, will depend on the type of program and the benefits to City of joint versus singular application.
The City of Ceres shall continue to contact its state and federal legislative and congressional representatives to advocate for higher state and federal financial commitments to low- and moderate-income housing programs to provide local governments with greater financial resources to meet federal and state housing mandates.
In order to continue to incentivize the development of affordable units the City is committed to the following actions:
Continue to apply for appropriate state and federal housing funds, including CDBG and HOME funds. Use funds to assist with providing affordable
housing opportunities in new and existing
housing units;
Post availability of grant or other special funding for affordable housing on the City’s website; and
Notify affordable residential developers, community groups and organizations that serve and represent lower-income households of the availability of affordable housing resources, when available.
Where possible, the City will give priority to projects that are affordable to extremely low- and very low-income households. Some of the more likely sources of funds include:
CDBG Funds: The City will continue to apply to the California HCD for special planning grants to pursue specific projects. The City will submit applications for those funds based on the state’s application time frame and process;
HOME Funds: The State of California also awards HOME funds to localities on a competitive basis for developments that include rental housing, homeownership opportunities, special needs housing and tenant-based rental assistance. The City will submit applications for those funds based on the state’s application time frame and process; Low Income Tax Credits: Federal and state tax credits are available to investors on a competitive basis for the development of lower-income housing units; and
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-24 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Other State-funded programs: The City will make use of available State-funding allocated for affordable housing.
Implementation Policies: 3.3 and 3.5
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Annual assessment; ongoing
Funding Source: CDBG, HOME, PLHA grant, tax credits and other grants and programs, as applicable
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Acquire revenue from various Federal and State funds for use in affordable housing
(Previously programs 2.5 and 2.6)
Program 3.3: Housing Assistance for Senior Residents
Seniors are identified as individuals 65 years and older and often experience a combination of factors that can make accessing or keeping affordable housing a challenge. Approximately 10 percent of Ceres’ population is comprised of seniors, 64 percent of whom earn less that the City’s median household income that would benefit from Countywide programs.
The City will continue to support and market the efforts of local non-profit agencies that provide direct housing assistance to senior disabled individuals. In an effort to increase outreach on both housing opportunities and reasonable accommodation procedures, the City will affirmatively market these items by:
Posting information on the City’s website;
Providing materials at City Hall and the library;
Directing mail information to residents;
Distributing information at City events; and
Working with local non-profits, including the Stanislaus County Department of Aging and Veterans Services.
Implementation Policies: 3.1 and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Disseminate information on an ongoing basis
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 25 individuals referred
Performance Metric(s): Collaborate with community-based organizations to publicize affordable housing opportunities for Seniors
(Previously 3.2)
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-25 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 3.4: Temporary/Seasonal Farmworker Housing
The City is committed to addressing the housing needs of permanent and migrant farmworkers through the following actions:
Grant Funding and Development Support: Pursue grant opportunities annually for farmworker housing projects, identify developers, and maintain an inventory of suitable sites for development;
Zoning and Standards: Ensure zoning and development standards support diverse housing types, including multi-family, manufactured housing, mobile homes, single-room occupancy, and accessory dwelling units (ADUs);
Developer Assistance: Provide support to developers with funding applications and streamline the application process to mitigate potential constraints; and Outreach and Incentives: Develop an informational brochure outlining funding sources and City incentives, such as priority processing and waiving fees and make available at the Community Development Department and on the City’s website.
The City recognizes the importance of regional collaboration in supporting farmworker households.
Key service providers and programs include:
Spanish Farmworkers Resource Line;
Office of Migrant Services (OMS);
California Rural Legal Assistance;
Central Valley Opportunity Center; and
Farm and Food Worker Relief Grant Program.
These resources will be promoted on the City’s website, and partnerships with the Stanislaus Housing Authority and OMS will ensure continued support for farmworkers.
Currently, the Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority operates Migrant Farmworker Housing Centers in nearby jurisdictions (Patterson, Empire, and Westley). While none are located in Ceres, the City will:
Facilitate Referrals: Coordinate with the Housing Authority to refer Ceres-based migrant farmworkers to these centers, all within a 30-minute commute; and Explore Local Development: Engage with the housing authority to evaluate the feasibility of establishing new Migrant Farmworker Housing Centers within Ceres.
Implementation Policies: 3.1 and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-26 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Timeframe: Develop marketing materials by December 2025; Annually coordinate with Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority and nonprofit developers to facilitate housing production; Develop incentives for developers by December 2027 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 10 applications for employee/farmworker housing by June 2031 Performance Metric(s): The number of applications received for employee/farmworker housing
(Previously 3.3)
Program 3. 5: Affordable Housing for Persons with Developmental Disabilities The City shall refer residents to the Valley Mountain Regional Center for housing and services available for persons with developmental disabilities and provide information on services on the City’s website. As available, the City may pursue State and federal grant funding for direct support of housing construction and rehabilitation specifically targeted for housing for persons with developmental disabilities.
Implementation Policies: 3.1 and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Pursue State and federal grant funding opportunities on annual basis; refer residents with disabilities on an ongoing basis
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 10 individuals referred
Performance Metric(s): Number of individuals referred to Valley Mountain Regional Center for housing and services.
(Previously 3.5)
Program 3. 6: Support to Address Regional Homeless Needs The City shall participate in the Stanislaus County Housing and Support Service Collaborative (SCHSSC) and the Continuum of Care to help address homeless needs in Ceres and Stanislaus County.
Implementation Policies: 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, and 3.6 Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Ongoing; participate annually
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 15 individuals served annually
Performance Metric(s): Number of individuals served annually, reducing homeless persons in Ceres
(Previously 3.4)
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-27 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 3.7: Low Barrier Navigation Centers (New )
AB101 (2019) provides a pathway to permanent housing for people experiencing homelessness. A “Low-Barrier Navigation Center” is a housing first, low-barrier, service-enriched shelter focused on moving people into permanent housing that provides temporary living facilities while case managers connect individuals experiencing homelessness to income, public benefits, health services, shelter, and housing.
In order to comply with State law, the City will amend the Zoning Ordinance to include the definition for “Low Barrier Navigation Center” and will develop by-right procedures for processing low barrier navigation centers, including permitting low barrier navigation centers by-right in areas zoned for mixed-use and nonresidential zones permitting multifamily uses.
Implementation Policies: 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Amend Municipal Code by December 2024
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Facilitating development of low barrier navigation centers
Program 3. 8: Affordable Housing for Extremely Low -Income Housing Residents ( PRO ) The City will encourage development of housing for extremely-low-income households through a variety of activities such as targeted outreach to for-profit and non-profit housing developers on at least an annual basis, providing in-kind technical assistance, fee deferrals, expedited/priority processing, identifying grant and funding opportunities, applying for or supporting applications for funding on an ongoing basis, reviewing and prioritizing local funding for developments that include housing for ELI households and/or offering additional incentives to supplement the density bonus provisions in State law.
Implementation Policies: 3.1 and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Conduct affirmative marketing annually and pursue funding opportunities 2-3 times per year
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Construction of 20 ELI units by June 2027 (mid-cycle) Performance Metric(s): Number of units constructed affordable to ELI residents
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Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-28 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 3.9: Accessible/Adaptable Units for Residents with Disabilities (New) The City of Ceres recognizes the special needs of persons with disabilities and the need to retain flexibility in the design review process to accommodate these needs. The City of Ceres will implement Universal Design guidelines, which allow for new construction and home modifications that enhance the full life cycle use of housing in order to accommodate a wide range of physical abilities or disabilities of a home’s occupants.
Implementation Policies: 3.1 and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Adoption of Universal Design Guidelines by December 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Adopt Universal Design Guidelines by December 2025
Program 3.1 0: Emergency Shelters for Homeless Individuals (New) The City will continue to support housing opportunities for homeless individuals, including emergency shelters, transitional housing and permanent affordable housing. The City of Ceres will ensure that there are sufficient sites available for the construction of emergency shelters that are able to meet the capacity of the City’s current homeless population.
Implementation Policies: 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Complete Municipal Code amendments per Program 1.9 by January 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Reduce the size of the City’s homeless population Program 3.1 1 : Employee Housing (New)
As detailed in Program 2.4, the City has 352 deed-restricted affordable housing units. The City will monitor these units to ensure they remain deed-restricted and take actions as outlined in Program
2.4 to preserve them. In addition to preserving existing affordable housing units, the City of Ceres will support the expansion of affordable and rental housing opportunities through the marketing actions described in Program 5.1, to enable local employees such as teachers, police, fire fighters and other City personnel to live in the community where they work.
In compliance with Health and Safety Code Sections 17021.5, the City will amend the Zoning Code to permit employee housing for six or fewer persons as other single-family uses of the same type in the same zone across all zones that allow single-family residential uses in compliance with the California Employee Housing Act. Additionally, the City will amend the Zoning Code to define employee housing consisting of no more than 12 units or 36 beds to be permitted in the same manner as other agricultural uses in the same zone (Section 17021.6).
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ITEM 16
Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-29 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Implementation Policies: 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Complete Municipal Code amendments by January 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Update Zoning Code to comply with Health and Safety Code Sections 17021.5 and 17021.6
Program 3. 12: Housing Assistance for Veterans
The City of Ceres will partner with the Stanislaus Housing Authority to provide housing assistance for veterans within the City.
Implementation Policies: 3.1 and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Ongoing
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Provide housing assistance to at least five veterans per year Performance Metric(s): Reduction of homelessness among the City’s veteran population
Program 3.13: Affordable Housing Water & Sewer Priority Pursuant to SB 1087, the City shall forward its adopted housing element to the City’s Public Works Department and the City of Modesto Public Works Department so all parties can grant priority for water and sewer service allocations to proposed developments that include units affordable to lower- income households. The City’s Public Works Department and the City of Modesto Public Works Department will grant priority to new affordable housing for hookups to connect to the City’s conveyance systems.
The City will develop a water distribution policy to ensure water allocations are directed to units that meet the City’s Regional Housing Needs.
Implementation Policies: 3.1
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Upon certification, provide Adopted Housing Element to water and sewer providers; Develop Water Distribution Policy by December 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Number of lower-income developments that receive priority water and sewer services.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 3.14: Family Friendly Housing
Promote multi-family housing designs and unit mix to attract multigenerational households by encouraging developers to include housing features and more bedrooms (including four-bedroom units), as well as other on-site amenities, such as usable outdoor open space for multigenerational use, and multipurpose rooms that can be used for after-school homework clubs, computer, art, or other resident activities. To address potential displacement of households with four or more persons, the City will research options to expand regulatory incentives to encourage the development of larger units.
Implementation Policies: 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.5, and 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Develop regulatory incentive by June 2025
Geographic Target: Census Tracts 25.05, 25.04, 26.03, 30.03, and 30.04 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 15 family friendly designated units (four-bedroom units) Performance Metric(s): Number of four-bedroom units constructed by June 2031
Program 3.15: Reasonable Accommodation
To eliminate subjectivity in the review of requests for reasonable accommodation, the City will an amend Municipal Code Chapter 18.41.040 to remove the findings requirements outlined in Sections B and C and as follows below.
“B. The City may consider, but is not limited to, the following factors in determining whether the requested accommodation is necessary to provide one or more individuals with a disability an equal opportunity to use and enjoy a dwelling: 1. Whether the requested accommodation will affirmatively enhance the quality of life of one or more individuals with a disability; 2. Whether the individual or individuals with a disability will be denied an equal opportunity to enjoy the housing type of their choice absent the accommodation; 3. In the case of a residential care facility, whether the requested accommodation is necessary to make facilities of a similar nature or operation economically viable in light of the particularities of the relevant market and market participants; and/or 4. In the case of a residential care facility, whether the existing supply of facilities of a similar nature and operation in the community is sufficient to provide individuals with a disability an equal opportunity to live in a residential setting.
C. The City may consider, but is not limited to, the following factors in determining whether the requested accommodation would require a fundamental alteration in the nature of the City's zoning laws, rules, policies, practices, and procedures: 1. Whether the requested accommodation would fundamentally alter the character of the neighborhood; 2. Whether the accommodation would result in a substantial increase in traffic or insufficient parking; 3. Whether granting the requested accommodation would substantially undermine any
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 purpose of either the City's general plan or applicable specific plan; and/or 4. In the case of a residential care facility, whether the requested accommodation would create an institutionalized environment due to the number of and distance between facilities that are similar in nature or operation.” Additionally, the City will amend Municipal Code Chapter 18.34 to clarify the term “aggrieved parties” in relation to reasonable accommodation, and to limit the parties eligible to appeal a request for reasonable accommodation to the applicant or the personal beneficiary.
Implementation Policies: 3.6
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Adoption of Municipal Code amendments by December 2024 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): Eliminate subjectivity from the City’s Reasonable Accommodation procedures
GOAL 4: Exemplify Sustainable Development and Energy Conservation Policies
Policy 4.1: The City shall continue to conserve water usage in the short-term and improve the City’s water supply and storage capacity in the long-term.
Policy 4.2: The City shall continue to publicize its water conservation efforts at the City Hall and on the City's website.
Policy 4.3: The City shall continue to enforce the 1988 Water Conservation Ordinance that limits landscape irrigation to three times per week.
Policy 4.4: The City shall encourage energy efficiency in all new and existing housing.
Programs
Program 4. 1: Weatherization and Energy Conservation for Existing Dwelling Units The City shall continue to post and distribute information on currently available weatherization and energy conservation programs in conjunction with housing rehabilitation. Information is provided at City Hall on Turlock Irrigation District weatherization and energy assistance programs.
Implementation Policies: 4.1 and 4.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Ongoing; review annually
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 10 total units rehabilitated (2 ELI units; 2 VLI units; 1 LI units) by June 2031
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Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-32 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Performance Metric(s): Upgrade/Rehabilitate units in alignment with energy conservation and weatherization measures
(Previously 6.0)
Program 4. 2: Energy Conservation for New Construction The City shall enforce state requirements, including Title 24 requirements, for energy conservation in new residential projects and shall encourage residential developers to employ additional energy conservation measures with respect to the siding of buildings, landscaping, and solar access. Any landscaping and development design guidelines prepared by the City will include consideration of energy and resource conservation.
Implementation Policies: 4.3 and 4.4
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Ongoing; review annually
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: N/A
Performance Metric(s): N/A
(Previously 6.1)
GOAL 5: Publicize Housing Needs and Resources
Policies
Policy 5.1: Support and promote fair housing opportunities and services available to City residents. (New)
Policy 5.2: Ensure that sufficient funding and incentives are allocated and publicized for housing construction and redevelopment. (New)
Programs
Program 5. 1: Fair Housing (PRO)
The City shall continue to promote equal housing opportunity for all persons regardless of race, religion, sex, sexual orientation, marital status, ancestry, nation origin, or color by supporting efforts of community groups which provide counseling, investigatory, legal or referral to victims of discrimination. Specifically, the City shall:
Maintain information on state and federal fair housing laws in English and Spanish on the City’s website and at the Planning Division counter for public distribution;
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Provide information on state and federal fair housing laws in English and Spanish at the public library, police station, fire department, and schools;
Utilize a bilingual individual at the City to refer victims of housing discrimination to the appropriate local organization or to the State Fair Employment and Housing Commission; Seek the cooperation of the local home-builders association, Realtor associations, and lenders in disseminating fair housing information; and
The City will utilize the United Way Information and Referral Service as a resource to refer persons in need of assistance.
Additionally, the City will continue to support and promote the services of organizations that provide fair housing programs to Ceres residents, including:
Project Sentinel Fair Housing Center;
Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority;
Stanislaus County Department of Aging and Veterans Services; Stanislaus County Family Caregiver Support Program;
Stanislaus County Affordable Housing Corporation;
Central Valley Opportunity Center; and
Stanislaus County Habitat for Humanity.
The City will market the availability of the services provided by these organizations through written material available at City Hall and on the City’s website. The City will also develop an engagement strategy to promote education and awareness of fair housing law and tenant protections, including source of income, State rent stabilization, just cause eviction regulations, and other related State laws. Additionally, the City will market listings for affordable housing as available.
Implementation Policies: 5.1
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Annually market service organizations that provide fair housing resources; Develop engagement strategy by June 2026; Market affordable housing listings as available Geographic Target: Census Tracts 25.05, 25.04, 26.03, 30.03, and 30.04 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Develop Engagement Strategy; Number of affordable housing listings marketed by July 2031
Performance Metric(s): Reduce number of fair housing cases during housing cycle (Previously Program 5.0)
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 5.2: Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) Program (PRO) The City shall continue to encourage and promote the Stanislaus County Housing Authority in its administration of the Housing Choice (Section 8) rental assistance program. The Housing Authority publicizes the Section 8 rental assistance program through marketing efforts such as: advertisements in Modesto Bee and Ceres Courier, and brochures made available at City Hall.
Implementation Policies: 5.1 and 5.2
Responsible Department: Stanislaus County Housing Authority Timeframe: Market housing choice vouchers annually, as available; review progress annually
Geographic Target: Census Tracts 25.05, 25.04, 26.03, 30.03, and 30.04 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 10 Housing Choice Vouchers
Performance Metric(s): Number of Housing Choice Vouchers utilized (Previously 2.0)
Program 5. 3: First -Time Home Buyer Downpayment Assistance The City shall continue to refer qualified residents to the Stanislaus County First Time Home Buyer program, which lends qualified households up to twenty (20) percent of the home’s sales price for down payment assistance to lower income households, including those extremely low-, very low-, and low-income categories. The City shall publicize this program to residents on the City’s website with other housing information. This program is funded through the Stanislaus Urban Consortium and ultimately HUD.
Implementation Policies: 5.1 and 5.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Ongoing; Market program annually
Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: 5 homes purchased through this program by June 2027 (mid-cycle) Performance Metric(s): Number of homes purchased through this program (Previously program 1.9)
Program 5.4: Place -Based Strategies to Support Infrastructure Improvements (New) The City will invest in infrastructure and services to revitalize low-resource areas and enhance the quality of life in Ceres through the following actions:
Biannual coordination with StanRTA to improve bus routes connecting low-income neighborhoods to employment centers;
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Chapter 2.0 – Goals, Policies, and Programs 2-35 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Utilizing CDBG funds for ADA sidewalk improvements in disadvantaged areas, including the current project in Morrow Village (north of Whitmore Avenue and west of Mitchell Road); Partnering with the San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission on pedestrian infrastructure upgrades for safe access to the planned Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) train station near Downtown Ceres by 2027; and
Allocating CIP funding to projects in lower-income areas, such as pedestrian corridors, bike trails, transit route expansion, and stormwater and sewer improvements.
These efforts, as detailed in Chapter 4 and Appendix A, will prioritize equity by enhancing parks, streetscapes, and community amenities in underserved neighborhoods citywide.
Implementation Policies: 5.1 and 5.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Ongoing; Monitor annually and seek funding for infrastructure improvement projects annually review; apply three to four times for grant funding annually Geographic Target: Census Tracts 25,04, 25.05, 26.02, 26.03, 27.02, 30.03, 30.04, and 31 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: One to two improvements per year
Performance Metric(s): Amount of funds expended for infrastructure improvements
Program 5.5: Place -Based Strategies to Support Economic Mobility (New) The City will implement strategies to improve economic opportunity for very low-income residents by expanding access to low-barrier, low-skill jobs through the following actions:
Meeting with at least two community-based partners biannually to expand job opportunities, provide job readiness training, and support services such as resume building and interview preparation to increase the household incomes for very low-income households; Collaborate with the Chamber of Commerce to encourage local employers to identify and advertise well-paying entry-level positions to Below Market Rate (BMR) tenants in Ceres; and Partner with job readiness service providers to promote training programs and job openings to BMR tenants and property managers at least twice per year.
These efforts will focus on lower-income areas to ensure equitable opportunities for all households, as outlined in Chapter 4 and Appendix A.
Implementation Policies: 5.1 and 5.2
Responsible Department: Community Development Department Timeframe: Engage Community-Based Partners bi-annually; market entry level positions (ongoing)
Geographic Target: Census Tracts 25,04, 25.05, 26.02, 26.03, 27.02, 30.03, 30.04, and 31
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Funding Source: General Fund
Quantified Objective: Meet bi-annually with at least two community-based partners; Collaborate with job readiness service providers to ensure information is marketed at least twice per year to BMR tenants; Assist in connecting 10 residents bi-annually with job- training programs or job opportunities.
Performance Metric(s): Reduction in local unemployment rates for lower-income residents
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3-1 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
3.0 Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints
3.1 Introduction
This chapter summarizes housing needs and constraints in the City of Ceres. The analysis of housing needs primarily utilizes U.S. Census, ACS 5-Year Estimate data. For a detailed analysis of housing needs, please see Appendix A— Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report. Also, for a detailed analysis of governmental and non-governmental constraints, please see Appendix B—Housing Constraints.
3.2 Overview of Housing Needs
The following section provides an overview of demographic information, household and housing stock characteristics, and special housing needs in Ceres.
Population Growth
Table 3-1 shows population growth in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities between 2010-2019. In Ceres, the population increased approximately 9 percent from 2010 to 2019. Between this period, the City of Ceres’ population steadily increased as did the County and nearby comparable cities of Oakdale and Turlock. Ceres’ population in 2019 was 48,214, larger than Oakdale but smaller than Turlock and the County.
Table 3-1 Population Growth by Jurisdiction, 2010-2019
Jurisdiction Population
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Stanislaus County 509,682 512,469 515,115 518,321 522,794 527,367 530,561 535,684 539,301 543,194 Ceres 44,153 44,731 45,086 46,022 46,570 46,952 47,231 47,650 47,975 48,214 Oakdale 20,076 20,364 20,663 20,943 21,260 21,543 21,796 22,256 22,599 22,936 Turlock 67,376 67,953 68,576 69,185 69,875 70,596 71,166 71,906 72,335 72,904 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2019 Age Characteristics
In 2010, Ceres’ predominant age group was individuals between 15 and 24 years of age (17 percent).
Between 2010 and 2019, the general age of the population has been slowly increasing; however, the
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3-2 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 most populous age groups in the city appear to be individuals between 5 and 14 years of age. Senior populations have remained less than 2 percent in the city since 2010. As of 2019, the city’s median age was 30. Overall, Ceres’ aging trend suggests a demand for housing geared toward younger to middle-aged persons and families.
Table 3-2 shows that Ceres’ most populous age group in 2019 was individuals 5 to 14 years of age (18 percent). Compared to the County and nearby cities, Ceres has the largest 5-14, 15-24, and 25-34 age groups. In contrast, Ceres and Oakdale both have the smallest 65 and older age groups (less than 6 percent, respectively).
Table 3-2 Population Age Distribution by Jurisdiction, 2019 Jurisdiction Population Age
0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Stanislaus County 7% 15% 14% 15% 13% 12% 11% 8% 4% 2%
Ceres 8% 18% 16% 16% 13% 12% 9% 6% 3% 1%
Oakdale 8% 16% 14% 12% 16% 12% 11% 6% 4% 1%
Turlock 7% 15% 15% 15% 13% 13% 10% 8% 4% 2%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Race and Ethnicity Characteristics
When comparing the city and the county, Hispanic or Latino and non-Hispanic White populations are the most represented. Hispanic or Latino individuals comprise the majority of both the County (46 percent) and Ceres’ population (61 percent). Those identifying as American Indian or Alaska Native represent the smallest population group within the city (1 percent) followed by Some Other Race/Two or More Races (3 percent). Despite having a smaller population than the County, Ceres’ population is more diverse.
Table 3-3 provides a comparison of racial and ethnic composition by jurisdiction. In 2019, the County (42 percent) and the nearby comparable cities of Turlock (50 percent) and Oakdale (61 percent) had the largest non-Hispanic White populations compared to Ceres (24 percent). Ceres had the largest Hispanic or Latino (61 percent), Asian (7 percent), and Black or African American (4 percent) populations compared to surrounding cities and the County.
Between 2010-2019, Ceres’ population composition experienced fluctuations in nearly all populations. In 2015, all populations experienced a decrease in size with the exception of Hispanic or Latino (8 percent increase) and Some Other Race/Two or More Races (1 percent increase). In 2019, Ceres saw growth in all populations except non-Hispanic White (4 percent decline) and Some Other Race/Two or More Races (0.1 percent decline).
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 3-3 Population by Race by Jurisdiction, 2019
Jurisdiction
American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
Asian,
alone
Black or
African
American,
Non-
Hispanic
White,
Non-
Hispanic
Some
Other
Race
Hispanic
or
Latino
Native
Hawaiian
and Other
Pacific
Islander
Stanislaus
County 0% 5% 3% 42% 3% 46% 1%
Ceres 1% 7% 4% 24% 3% 61% 0%
Oakdale 1% 2% 0% 61% 3% 33% 0%
Turlock 1% 6% 2% 50% 3% 37% 0%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Employment
According to the Stanislaus County 2021 Demographic and Employment Forecast, Ceres is projected to experience an employment growth of 42 percent between 2020-2050. This projected employment growth is 16 percentage points higher than the County (26 percent) and 14 points higher than Turlock (28 percent). This projected increase in job growth presents an opportunity for cities to construct additional housing options for the existing and future workforce. Table 3-4 shows employment growth forecasts in Ceres, the County, and nearby jurisdictions.
Table 3-4 Employment Growth Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020-2050 Jurisdiction Population Employed Change
2015 - 2050
2020 2025* 2030 2035* 2040* 2045* 2050* Percent
Stanislaus County 238,362 267,154 271,450 276,735 284,324 292,786 302,628 26% Ceres 15,384 18,325 18,804 19,336 20,067 20,876 21,847 42% Oakdale 8,256 8,912 8,937 8,968 9,005 9,135 9,276 12%
Turlock 33,001 38,430 38,828 39,387 40,259 41,243 42,395 28% SOURCE: Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast, 2021 NOTE: *Projected growth values
Unemployment rates are essential to understanding the affordability needs of a community when determining housing options. Table 3-5 provides a breakdown of unemployment rates for Ceres, the County, and nearby cities. In 2019, Ceres had a 12 percent unemployment rate, mirroring Oakdale.
This indicates an approximate 3 percentage points higher unemployment rate than the County and 5 points higher than the City of Turlock.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 3-5 Unemployment Rate, Ceres, 2019
Jurisdictions Unemployment Rate
Stanislaus County 9%
Ceres 12%
Oakdale 12%
Turlock 7%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Household Characteristics
Table 3-6 provides an overview of the projected housing units needed in Stanislaus County, Ceres, and nearby comparable cities, Oakdale and Turlock.1 Ceres is forecast to have a household growth of approximately 32 percent by 2050. This reflects 4 percentage points more growth than the County and 3 points less than the City of Turlock.
Table 3-6 Housing Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020-2050
Jurisdiction 2020 2025* 2030* 2035* 2040* 2045* 2050*
Percent
Change from
2015-2040
Stanislaus County 179,276 190,782 200,258 208,137 215,916 222,845 230,072 28% Ceres 13,318 14,278 15,063 15,718 16,366 16,946 17,552 32% Oakdale 7,823 8,413 8,897 9,300 9,697 10,053 10,424 33% Turlock 25,788 27,833 29,464 30,829 32,204 33,460 34,770 35% SOURCE: Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast, 2021 NOTE: *Projected growth values
Household Type and Size
In Ceres, the largest household type was married-couple family households (56 percent) followed by female-headed households (19 percent). Similarly, the largest household type in the County and nearby cities was also married-couple family households, followed by single-person households.
Ceres has the highest percentage of female-headed (19 percent) and male-headed households (10 percent) compared to the County and nearby cities. Additionally, Ceres (13 percent) has the lowest percentage of single-person households compared to the County (21 percent), Oakdale (24 percent), and Turlock (23 percent).
1 Source: Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast, 2021
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3-5 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Ceres’ largest household type according to size is 3-4-person households (39 percent) followed by 5 or more-person households (25 percent). This is consistent with married-couple family households remaining the largest household type since 2010, reflecting a demand for affordable housing units that appeal to larger family households.
Household Income
In Ceres, lower-income households makeup 47 percent of households followed by above moderate- income households (42 percent). Approximately 11 percent of the households in Ceres identify as extremely low-income. Considering 47 percent of households are lower-income, it is likely that the demand for married-couple family households is accompanied by a need for more affordable options. Table 3-7 shows households by income in Ceres.
Table 3-7 Households by Income Category, Ceres, 2015-2019 Income Category Households Percent
Extremely Low-Income (30% or less) 1,455 11%
Very Low-Income (30-50%) 1,780 14%
Low-Income (50-80%) 2,830 22%
Moderate-Income (80-100%) 1,480 11%
Above Moderate-Income (>100%) 5,435 42%
Total 12,980 100%
SOURCE: Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), 2015-2019 Understanding Ceres’ median household income clarifies what income category households identify with and what is deemed affordable. Ceres’ median household income was $58,667 – approximately $2,037 lower than the County. The City of Oakdale had the highest median household income at $64,555 followed by the County ($60,704).
The household income characteristics in Ceres reveal a demand for the development of more affordable housing options that appeal to larger households. Ceres is comprised of primarily higher- income households (53 percent), most of which identify as married-couple family households (56 percent).
Tenure
The number of residents who own their homes compared to those who rent their homes can help identify the level of housing insecurity (i.e., ability for individuals to stay in their homes) in a city and region. Generally, renters may be displaced more quickly if prices increase.
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3-6 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 In Ceres, the housing stock includes 7,945 owner-occupied housing units and 5,030 renter-occupied housing units (Table 3-8). When analyzing housing unit type in tandem with tenure, the majority of all housing units are single-family detached units (79 percent), including 58 percent renter-occupied and 28 percent owner-occupied.
Table 3-8 Housing Units by Type and Tenure, Ceres, 2019 Tenure
Single-
Family
Detached
Single-
Family
Attached
Multifamily Mobile
Homes Total Units
Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Renter-Occupied 2,892 58% 372 7% 1,626 32% 140 3% 5,030 Owner-Occupied 7,516 95% 56 1% 13 0.2% 360 5% 7,945
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
NOTE: Table indicated total occupied housing units.
Homeownership rates often vary considerably across race/ethnicity in the State and throughout the country. These disparities not only reflect differences in income and wealth but also stem from federal, state, and local policies that limited access to homeownership for communities of color while facilitating homebuying for White residents. While many of these policies, such as redlining, have been formally disbanded, the impacts of race-based policy are still evident in communities across the country.
Tenure by race varies substantially in Ceres. The majority of all households are owner-occupied, of which Black or African American households have the lowest rate of ownership (38 percent) and highest rate of renting (62 percent). Hispanic and Latino households makeup the majority of Ceres households (61 percent), yet the homeownership rate is 58 percent compared to non-Hispanic White households at 67 percent homeownership comprising 24 percent of the population.
In many cities, homeownership rates for households in single-family homes are substantially higher than the rates for households in multifamily housing. In Ceres, 95 percent of households in detached single-family homes are homeowners, while 0.2 percent of households in multifamily housing are homeowners.
Disproportionate Housing Needs
Overcrowding
Understanding the prevalence of overcrowded households within a community helps determine the need for affordable and adequately sized housing units for the community. Overcrowding is defined by HUD as a household with more than one occupant per room excluding bathrooms and kitchens.
Units with more than 1.5 persons per room are considered severely overcrowded. Overcrowding
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 may occur due to a lack of available affordable and/or adequately sized housing units. Cultural norms and customs combined with low-income or lack of adequately size housing units can result in overcrowding too.
In Ceres, the majority of households (90 percent) do not experience overcrowding. Eight (8) percent of households in Ceres are overcrowded and 2 percent are severely overcrowded. Overcrowding in Stanislaus County is 3 percentage points less than Ceres. When analyzing overcrowding by tenure, 11 percent of renter-occupied households experience overcrowding compared to 5 percent of owner-occupied households. Rates of severe overcrowding among renters and owners is the same at 2 percent.
Cost Burden
According to HCD, overpayment or cost burden is measured as households spending more than 30 percent of their gross income including utilities for housing; severe overpayment or severe cost burden is measured as households spending 50 percent or more of their gross income for housing.
The cost burden rates of owners and renters in a community provide insight to housing needs such as, the affordability of the local housing market and the availability of housing units that accommodate household needs like size and housing type. Additionally, federal and state agencies examine cost burden to determine a community’s need for housing assistance.
In Ceres, 36 percent of households are cost burdened and 17 percent are severely cost burdened.
The City of Turlock has slightly higher rate of severely cost burdened households (18 percent) compared to Ceres, and the County has a slightly lower rate (16 percent). Overall, the City of Turlock has the highest percent of households experiencing any type of cost burden (39 percent).
When analyzing cost burden by tenure, renter-occupied households experience substantially higher rates of cost burden (23 percent) and severe cost burden (25 percent) than owner-occupied households. Seventeen (17) percent of owner-occupied households are cost burdened and 10 percent are severely cost burdened. Thirty-nine (39) percent of households in Ceres are renters – this in tandem with 48 percent of renter households experiencing some type of cost burden and 13 percent experiencing some type of overcrowding reflects a demand for more affordable housing units.
Neighborhoods
The majority of Ceres residents live in neighborhoods identified as “Low Resource” areas by State- commissioned research, while none live in areas identified by this research as “Highest Resource”.
These neighborhood designations are based on a range of indicators covering areas such as education, poverty, proximity to jobs and economic opportunities, low pollution levels, and other factors.
2 2 For more information on the “opportunity area” categories developed by HCD and the California Tax Credit Allocation Committee, see this website: https://www.treasurer.ca.gov/ctcac/opportunity.asp. The degree to which
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3-8 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Special Needs Groups
Extremely Low-Income Households and Poverty Status
Extremely low-income households are those that earn less than 30 percent of the median family income (MFI). Very low-income households are those that earn 50 percent or less of the MFI.
The 2015-2019 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data indicates there are approximately 3,235 extremely low- and very low-income households living in Ceres. There are approximately 1,455 extremely low-income households in Ceres, 1,000 of which are renters and 455 are owner-occupied households.
In Ceres, 42 percent of households make more than 100 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), compared to 11 percent making less than 30 percent of AMI, which is considered extremely low income. In Stanislaus County, 30 percent AMI is the equivalent to the annual income of $18,211.
Many households with multiple wage earners, including food service workers, full-time students, teachers, farmworkers and healthcare professionals, can fall into lower AMI categories due to relatively stagnant wages in many industries.
Throughout the region, there are disparities between the incomes of homeowners and renters.
Typically, the number of low-income renters greatly outpaces the amount of housing available that is affordable for these households. Lower-income owner-occupied households as a whole (0-80 percent of AMI), makeup 36 percent of households and renter-occupied households makeup 63 percent of households.
In 2019, 15 percent of the population in Ceres were identified as living below the poverty level.
Currently, people of color are more likely to experience poverty and financial instability as a result of federal and local housing policies that have historically excluded them from the same opportunities extended to white residents.
3 These economic disparities also leave communities of color at higher risk for housing insecurity, displacement or homelessness. In Ceres, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander residents experience the highest rates of poverty (35 percent), followed by Other Race or Multiple Race residents (32 percent).
Seniors
Seniors are identified as individuals 65 years and older. Senior households often experience a combination of factors that can make accessing or keeping affordable housing a challenge. They often live on fixed incomes and are more likely to have disabilities, chronic health conditions and/or reduced mobility. Seniors who rent may be at even greater risk for housing challenges than those who own, due to income differences between these groups.
different jurisdictions and neighborhoods have access to opportunity will likely need to be analyzed as part of new Housing Element requirements related to affirmatively furthering fair housing. 3 Moore, E., Montojo, N. and Mauri, N., 2019. Roots, Race & Place: A History of Racially Exclusionary Housing the San Francisco Bay Area. Hass Institute.
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3-9 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 In Ceres, senior households makeup 10 percent of all households, of which 17 percent rent their homes. Similarly, the County and nearby comparable cities’ senior households primarily own their homes. The majority of Ceres senior households earn a yearly income between $10,000-$19,999 (19 percent). An estimated 67 percent of senior households earn less than the city’s median household income ($58,667).
People with Disabilities
Developmental disabilities are defined as severe, chronic, and attributed to a mental or physical impairment that begins before a person turns 18 years old. This can include Down’s Syndrome, autism, epilepsy, cerebral palsy, and mild to severe developmental disabilities. Some people with developmental disabilities are unable to work, rely on Supplemental Security Income, and live with family members. In addition to their specific housing needs, they are at increased risk of housing insecurity after an aging parent or family member is no longer able to care for them. The most common living arrangement for individuals with disabilities in Ceres is the home of parent/family/guardian followed by independent/supported living arrangements.
Overall, 24 percent of the population in Ceres have a disability of some kind. 4 Of the 24 percent of
people with a disability, 1,467 persons have a developmental disability in Ceres. Of these, 913 are children (i.e., under the age of 18) and 554 are adults.5 Large Households
Large households are defined as households of five (5) or more individuals. Large households often have different housing needs than smaller households. Household income and local housing markets can greatly impact a household’s ability to afford adequately sized housing. If a city’s rental housing stock does not include larger apartments, large households who rent could end up living in overcrowded conditions. Similarly, large households may experience overpayment as a result of a high housing market and limited availability.
Ceres has 3,168 large households, of which 59 percent are owner-occupied households and 41 percent are renter-occupied households. Owner-occupied households makeup the majority of all households by approximately 61 percent. This combined with 36 percent of all households experiencing some level of cost burden, suggests it is likely that large households in Ceres may experience overcrowding and/or overpayment.
4 These disabilities are counted separately and are not mutually exclusive, as an individual may report more than one disability. These counts should not be summed.
5 California Department of Developmental Services, Consumer Count by California ZIP Code and Age Group (2021).
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3- 10 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Single-Parent Households
Households headed by one person are often at greater risk of housing insecurity, particularly female- headed households, who may be supporting children or a family with only one income. Female- headed households with children may face particular housing challenges, with pervasive gender inequality resulting in lower wages for women. Moreover, the added need for childcare can make finding a home that is affordable more challenging.
In Ceres, female-headed family households make up 66 percent of single-parent households and male-headed households makeup 34 percent. This is consistent with the County and nearby comparable cities. In 2019, there were 606 female-headed family households with children that fell in the Below Poverty Level category compared to 17 male-headed family households with children that fell in the Below Poverty Level category in Ceres.
Farmworkers
Across the state, housing for farmworkers has been recognized as an important and unique concern.
Farmworkers generally receive wages that are considerably lower than other jobs and may have temporary housing needs. Finding decent and affordable housing can be challenging, particularly in the current housing market.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimate, 4 percent of Ceres’ employment is comprised of Agriculture and Natural Resources. Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in 2022, the annual mean wage for farmworkers in the Modesto metropolitan area was $34,580. This annual income places each individual or household in the low-income bracket for Ceres. Additionally, this limited income may be significantly impacted by employment status (permanent or seasonal).
Despite having a small farmworker population, Ceres shares the responsibility for farmworker housing as farmworkers may live within 75 miles of agricultural land uses (including dairy, vineyards and produce) and the city is within 75 miles of these uses. The Stanislaus County Housing Authority administers farmworker housing across the county to address these needs.
Persons Experiencing Homelessness
Homelessness remains an urgent challenge in many communities across the state, reflecting a range of social, economic, and psychological factors. Rising housing costs result in increased risks of community members experiencing homelessness. Far too many residents who have found themselves housing insecure have ended up homeless in recent years, either temporarily or longer term. Addressing the specific housing needs for the unhoused population remains a priority throughout the region, particularly since homelessness is disproportionately experienced by people of color, people with disabilities, those struggling with addiction and those dealing with traumatic life circumstances.
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3- 11 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 In Stanislaus County, the most common type of household experiencing homelessness are those without children in their care. Among households experiencing homelessness that do not have children, 60 percent are unsheltered. Conversely, the majority of homeless households with children are in emergency shelters (64 percent). According to the 2023 Stanislaus County Point-in-Time (PIT) Homeless Count, 17 homeless persons were reported in Ceres, which is comparatively much lower than nearby cities.
Limited English Proficiency
In Ceres, 13 percent of residents five (5) years and older identify as speaking English not well or not at all, which is 3 percentage points higher than the proportion for Stanislaus County (10 percent).
This in tandem with a 61 percent Hispanic or Latino population, indicates a need for the prioritization of language translation services for all outreach including fair housing resources and education. In an effort to affirmatively further fair housing, the City has developed Program 5.1, please see Chapter 2 for full program details.
Housing Stock Characteristics
Housing Growth
The number of new homes built in Stanislaus County has not kept pace with the demand, resulting in longer commutes, increasing prices, and exacerbating issues of displacement and homelessness.
Table 3-9 provides an overview of housing growth trends between 2010-2019 in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. Between 2010-2019, Ceres housing unit estimates declined approximately 4 percent, whereas the County and surrounding cities experienced growth in housing units. These estimates show the majority of housing decline in Ceres occurred between 2015-2019 (-3 percent).
Table 3-9 Housing Unit Growth Trends by Jurisdiction, 2010-2019 Jurisdiction 2010 2015 2019 Percent Change
2010-2015
Percent Change
2015-2019
Stanislaus County 177,591 180,169 181,748 1% 1%
Ceres 13,871 13,741 13,393 -1% -3%
Oakdale 7,441 7,681 8,314 3% 8%
Turlock 24,699 25,350 26,099 3% 3%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2019 Table 3-10 shows housing permits issued between 2015-2021 by the City of Ceres according to income group. Ceres’ 5th Cycle RHNA was 2,571 housing units. Between 2015 and 2021, permits were issued for 79 housing units in Ceres, 3% of the RHNA. Of those, 71 were for above moderate- income housing, 7 were for moderate-income housing, and one (1) was for low-income housing.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 3-10 Housing Permits by Income Group, Ceres, 2015-2021 Income Group Number Percent of 5th Cycle RHNA Met
(2,571)
Very Low-Income Permits 0 0%
Low-Income Permits 1 .03%
Moderate-Income Permits 7 0.27%
Above Moderate-Income Permits 71 2.7%%
Total 79 3%
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), 5th Cycle Annual Progress Report Permit Summary (2022).
NOTE: Universe: Housing permits issued between 2015 and 2021. Notes: HCD uses the following definitions for the four income categories: Very Low Income:
units affordable to households making less than 50 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located. Low Income: units affordable to households making between 50 percent and 80 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located. Moderate Income: units affordable to households making between 80 percent and 120 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located. Above Moderate Income: units affordable to households making above 120 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located.
Housing Type
In recent years, most housing produced in the region and across the state consisted of single-family homes and larger multi-unit buildings. However, some households are increasingly interested in “missing middle housing,” including duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, cottage clusters and accessory dwelling units. These housing types may open up more options across incomes and tenure, from young households seeking homeownership options to seniors looking to downsize and age-in-place.
It is important to have a variety of housing types to meet the needs of a community today and in the future. In 2019 Ceres’ mix of housing types was as follows:
79 percent of homes were single-family detached;
13 percent were multifamily;
4 percent were mobile homes; and
3 percent were single-family attached.
Housing Availability
Table 3-11 shows vacant housing units by type in Ceres. Compared to the county and nearby comparable cities, Ceres has the lowest vacancy rate at 3 percent. Of the vacant units in Ceres, 27 percent are sold but not occupied, and 26 percent are available for rent. The availability of housing compounded with a need in the region, suggests a mismatch of housing need in some proportion (i.e., affordability, size, etc.).
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 3-11 Vacant Housing Units by Type, Ceres, 2019
Housing Unit Type Estimate Percentage
For rent 109 26%
Rented, not occupied 29 7%
For sale only 40 10%
Sold, not occupied 113 27%
For season, recreations, or occasional use 6 1%
For migrant workers 0 0%
Other vacant 121 29%
Total 418 100%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Displacement
Because of increasing housing prices, displacement is a major concern in Stanislaus County.
Displacement has the most severe impacts on low- and moderate-income residents. When individuals or families are forced to leave their homes and communities, they also lose their support network.
According to the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) AFFH Data Viewer and the Urban Displacement Project 2022 estimates, Ceres’ renter-occupied households earning between 0-80 percent AMI are at highest risk of displacement or gentrification in the central region of the city. This region has also shown concentrations of low resources and high social vulnerability.
Housing Costs and Affordability
Housing costs reflect a complex mix of supply and demand factors, including an area’s demographic profile, labor market, prevailing wages and job outlook, coupled with land and construction costs. A diversity of homes at all income levels creates opportunities for all Ceres residents to live and thrive in the community.
Ownership: The median home value was estimated to be $429,4716 in 2022. Home prices increased by 32 percent from 2019 to 2022, the same as the County. Rental Prices: As of 2022, the average rent for an apartment in Ceres ranged from $1,950 (studio) to $3,499 (four + bedrooms).7
6 Zillow Home Value Index, 2019-2022; Housing value estimates were taken from December for years 2019 -2022. 7 Zillow, 2023; HUD, Fair Market Rent Documentation System, 2023; Zillow rental value estimates were taken from March 2023 and based on Modesto median rental price.
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Chapter 3.0 – Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints 3- 14 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 3-12 reports the maximum monthly housing costs affordable to households according to income group in Stanislaus County. Income groups are based on the HCD 2022 State Income Limits report, which considers housing affordable assuming a household can pay up to 30 percent of its monthly income toward housing.
Table 3-12 Housing Affordability, Ceres, 2022
Income Group HCD Income Limits
Maximum Affordable Price
Monthly Rental Ownership
Extremely Low (0-30% AMI)
One Person $16,750 $419 $74,229
Two Person $19,150 $479 $84,865
Three Person $23,030 $576 $102,059
Four Person $27,750 $694 $122,976
Very Low (30-50% AMI)
One Person $27,900 $698 $123,641
Two Person $31,900 $798 $141,367
Three Person $35,900 $898 $159,093
Four Person $39,850 $996 $176,598
Low (50-80% AMI)
One Person $44,650 $1,116 $197,870
Two Person $51,000 $1,275 $226,010
Three Person $57,400 $1,435 $254,372
Four Person $63,750 $1,594 $282,512
Moderate (100-120% AMI)
One Person $67,450 $1,686 $298,909
Two Person $77,100 $1,928 $341,674
Three Person $86,700 $2,168 $384,217
Four Person $96,350 $2,409 $426,982
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development, State Income Limits, 2022, Stanislaus County NOTES: State Income Limits use 2022 AMI (Stanislaus County $80,300)
3.3 Governmental and Non-Governmental Constraints
Housing development is affected by government regulations and other non-governmental forces, such as the cost of land and building materials and the availability and cost of housing loans.
Housing elements are required to investigate the impact of these constraints as they present themselves in the city for which the housing element is being prepared. This subsection provides a brief overview of governmental and non-governmental constraints in the City of Ceres. Please see Appendix B for a full discussion of housing constraints.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 The City of Ceres has identified a number of ways in which it can reduce the burden of governmental constraints on the production of housing. This 6th Cycle Housing Element update includes new programs to address constraints related to the following areas of government regulation:
Adding single room occupancy as a permitted use by-right in mixed use districts and limit required parking to one (1) space per unit (Programs 1.9 and 2.6); Prohibiting single-family development in all multi-family zoning districts (i.e., R-3, R-4, and R-5 Districts) (Program 1.9);
Permitting low-barrier navigation centers by-right in areas zoned for mixed-use and nonresidential zones permitting multifamily uses (Program 3.7); Codifying SB 9 regulations to facilitate new construction on single-family parcels (Program 1.9); and
Add minimum density requirement in the R-5 or High Density Residential (HDR) land use designation to be 20 du/ac.
With the changes described above, the City of Ceres would have a body of local development regulations that support the development of affordable housing and that do not pose any undue constraint on the development housing for all income groups.
In terms of non-governmental constraints, the relatively low cost of land and its availability for housing development make housing development more affordable in Ceres than in many other parts of California, especially coastal California. The cost of building materials continues to fluctuate and affects the price of housing, but there is no easy solution available at the local jurisdiction level to bring the cost of building materials down. As for environmental constraints, the city is located in a relatively flat area that is not prone to flooding and does not contain large forested areas or active earth quake faults. In conclusion, there exist no non-governmental constraints that pose an undue constraint on the development of affordable housing in the City of Ceres.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-3 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
4.0 AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory
4.1 Introduction
The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of housing sites and opportunities in the City of Ceres for the 6th Cycle Housing Element. For a detailed analysis of Cere’s housing sites inventory, please see Appendix C. There is sufficient capacity with existing zoning to accommodate the RHNA for the jurisdiction by income., per Government Code Section 65583(a)(3). Significant portions of the City’s housing Sites Inventory are located in one of two specific plan areas—West Landing or Whitmore Ranch, and Appendix C contains detailed information about these specific plans, such as effective dates, steps for entitlements, and phasing. For each housing site that is not contained in a specific plan area, Appendix C provides an aerial photograph, a brief description of its location, the number of housing units expected on the site, and any constraints to development that may exist.
All of the City’s underutilized Sites Inventory sites have been reused from the 5 th Cycle Housing
Element, or are vacant and have been reused in both the 4th and 5th Cycle Housing Element.
Therefore, all of the sites are subject to “by-right” development for projects that contain at least 20 percent affordable units (see Program 1.11 in Chapter 2). However, development of Sites 1 and 2 will require subdivision action and are therefore subject to discretionary review per the requirements of the Subdivision Map Act, as well as CEQA. All other relevant planning entitlements will meet by- right requirements as identified in Program 1.11 (see Chapter 2).
4.2 Prohousing Community Designation
As part of the 2019-20 Budget Act, AB 101 enacted the Prohousing Designation Program. This program enables the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) to designate jurisdictions throughout the state as Prohousing when they demonstrate policies and planning that accelerate the production of housing. The benefit to jurisdictions receiving the Pro- Housing designation includes being given preference and, in some cases, additional points, when participating in various state funded programs including the Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities (AHSC), and Infill Infrastructure Grant (IIG) programs. Ceres is positioning itself to apply for HCD’s Prohousing designation concurrent with the preparation and certification of its 6 th
Cycle Housing Element.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-4 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
4.3 Regional Housing Needs Allocation
Ceres’ share of the regional housing need for the eight-year period from 2023—2031 is 3,361 units, which is a 31 percent increase over the 2,571 units required by the 2014—2023 RHNA. The housing need is divided into the four income categories of housing affordability. Table 4-1, Ceres’s Regional Housing Needs Allocation – 2023–2031, shows Ceres’ RHNA for the planning period 2023 through 2031 in comparison to the RHNA distributions for the Stanislaus County Region.
Table 4-1 City of Ceres Regional Housing Needs Allocation – 2023–2031 Very Low-
Income Low-Income Moderate
Income
Above Moderate-
Income Total RHNA
<50% of AMI 50%-80% of AMI 80%-120% of AMI >120% of AMI All Income 706 489 661 1,505 3,361
21.01% 14.55% 19.67% 44.78% 100%
SOURCE: StanCOG, 2022
4.4 Site Inventory
The purpose of the sites inventory is to identify and analyze specific sites that are available and suitable for residential development from 2023-2031 in order to accommodate Ceres’ RNHA of 3,361 housing units. While the City doesn’t build the housing, it creates the programs and policies to plan for where it should go and how many units could be on potential sites.
The City of Ceres’ Site Inventory is comprised of two specific plan areas—West Landing and Whitmore Ranch, 20 vacant/underutilized sites, and six pipeline projects. See Appendix C for a complete and detailed description of all sites included in Ceres’ Site Inventory. Table 4-2, summarizes Ceres’ Site Inventory for the 2023-2031 planning period.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 4-2 Overview of Sites Inventory
Adjustment Factor
Very Low-
Income
Units
Low-
Income
Units
Moderate-
Income
Units
Above
Moderate-
Income
Units
Total
Pipeline Projects 20 29 164 93 306
West Landing Specific Plan 572 293 459 1,307 2,631
Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan 76 61 67 168 372
Vacant and Underutilized Sites 12 76 60 86 234
ADUs 39 39 39 13 131
Subtotal 719 498 789 1,667 3,673
Existing Units 0 0 0 44 44
Total 719 498 789 1,623 3,629
2023–2031 RHNA 706 489 661 1,505 3,361
Surplus of RHNA Unit Count 13 9 128 118 268
Surplus of RHNA % 102% 102% 119% 108% 108%
SOURCE: City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group Inc
4.5 Site Inventory Analysis Requirements
Per Assembly Bill (AB) 686, housing elements must analyze the location of lower-income sites in relation to areas of high opportunity, and in instances where lower-income sites are located in lower resource areas and/or segregated concentrated areas of poverty, cities must incorporate policies and programs to remediate those conditions. For example, implementing place-based strategies to create opportunity in areas of disinvestment such as, investments in enhanced infrastructure, services, schools, jobs, and other community needs. The following serves as a complete AFFH analysis of anticipated new housing opportunity sites for the 2023—2031 planning period.
Overview
Table 4-3 and Figures 4-1 through 4-10 show the distribution of projected units by income category for the following AFFH indicators compared to citywide patterns to understand how the projected locations of units will affirmatively further fair housing: median income, predominant population, female-headed households, poverty rates, TCAC/HCD opportunity areas, disability rates, cost burden rates, overcrowding, substandard housing, and median contract rent. The following sites inventory discussion includes an analysis of the number of projected units by income category and total RHNA capacity to further assess the potential impacts of the sites inventory to affirmatively further fair housing.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-6 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 As evidenced in Table 4-2, Ceres has adequate sites to accommodate housing development at approximately 108 percent of the RHNA. The land inventory provides total capacity for 3,673 units and opportunities for the development of a variety of housing types suitable for a range of households and income levels. In accordance with State law, all of the sites in the inventory are considered to be zoned appropriately to facilitate housing affordable to lower-income households.
4.6 Quadrant-Based Analysis
Figure 4-1 illustrates the distribution of housing opportunity sites throughout Ceres. The analysis divides the city into quadrants as follows: the far western quadrant (west of Crows Landing Road), the western quadrant (West of State Route 99 and east of Crows Landing Road), the northeast quadrant (north of E. Whitmore Avenue and east of State Route 99), and the southeast quadrant (south of E. Whitmore Avenue and east of State Route 99).
Table 4-3 provides a unit count for each housing opportunity site according to quadrant and AFFH indicators, including median income, predominant population, female-headed households, poverty rates, TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas, disability rates, cost burden rates, overcrowding, and substandard housing. Together, Figure 4-1 and Table 4-3 evidence the following:
Western Crows Landing Quadrant (West Landing Specific Plan area): Accommodates approximately 943 lower-income units, 498 moderate-income units, and 1,320 above moderate- income units – comprising 82 percent of the city’s RHNA, including a 9 percent buffer. This quadrant can accommodate more sites due to the West Landing Specific Plan, which includes expanded public services and amenities like a new school, parks, and recreational facilities. These improvements will enhance services and increase residential opportunities for various income levels in the western region.
Western Quadrant (west of State Route 99, east of Crows Landing Road): Accommodates 66 lower-income units, 75 moderate-income units, and 100 above moderate-income units – comprising 7 percent of the city’s RHNA, including a 9 percent buffer. This quadrant is characterized by low-density subdivisions with larger parcels, and has limited developable land for new housing opportunities. Expanding lower-income housing here can diversify housing options, reduce low-density concentrations, and improve access to public services, transit, and employment centers.
Northeast Quadrant (east of State Route 99, north of E. Whitmore Avenue):
Accommodates 42 lower-income units, 33 moderate-income units, and 64 above moderate- income units – comprising 4 percent of the city’s RHNA, including a 9 percent buffer. This quadrant includes a mix of residential and commercial uses, and has limited developable land for new housing opportunities. Its proximity to retail, commercial establishments, and transit makes it ideal for increasing affordable housing to support households needing access to public services and transit.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-7 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Southeast Quadrant (east of State Route 99, south of E. Whitmore Avenue):
Accommodates 166 lower-income units; 183 moderate-income units; and 183 above moderate- income units – comprising 16 percent of the city’s RHNA, including a 9 percent buffer. This quadrant offers more housing opportunities, partly due to the Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan, which expands public services and adds parks, sidewalks, walking paths, and bike trails to improve accessibility to nearby residential and commercial areas, and schools.
Overall, the AFFH analysis below indicates that most areas of the City of Ceres experience low access to resources, which correlates with lower median incomes and higher poverty rates compared to moderate-resource areas. Disproportionate housing needs, including overcrowding and cost burdens, are more pronounced in low-resource areas. The City has identified 596 housing opportunity sites within moderate-resource areas, 34 percent of which are designated for lower- income units, with the goal of fostering a more balanced urban environment and addressing existing disparities in household income and resource access.
The City of Ceres faces constraints due to limited developable land, necessitating a dual strategy of targeting underutilized parcels for infill development and annexing land on the city's outskirts to accommodate new housing opportunities. During the 5
th cycle planning period, the City annexed
new areas to establish specific plan developments aimed at expanding public services and amenities while addressing the need for outward growth. Concurrently, the City’s Public Works and Engineering Divisions have identified critical infrastructure investments to improve existing conditions and support higher-density infill residential projects.
These initiatives are guided by a commitment to mitigating disparities in access to services and fostering a balanced and equitable distribution of affordable housing across the city. For example, Program 1.5 of the Housing Element requires that 10 percent of new single-family homes in the West Landing development include Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) or Junior ADUs to integrate affordable housing throughout the community. Additionally, infill projects such as Tuscany Village, Olive Villas, and Magnolia Square Apartments are advancing to diversify affordable housing options and address community needs.
Looking forward, the City aims to focus its 7
th cycle housing efforts on higher-density, mixed-
income developments concentrated in the Downtown core, particularly near the planned ACE commuter rail station. This strategic approach seeks to enhance equitable access to resources, prevent the geographic isolation of lower-income households, and promote balanced growth in housing opportunities citywide.
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0 4000 feet
Source: Stanislaus County GIS 2024
Figure 4-1
Housing Sites Inventory Income Designation
Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update
1 2
3 6
5 4
7 8
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 16
17 18
19 21
20 22
23 2425
26 27
28 Ceres City Limit
Ceres City Parcels
Very Low
Very Low - Low
Low-Moderate
Moderate
Above Moderate
E. Hatch Rd.
UV99
UV99
UV99
Mitchell Rd.
Richland Ave.
E. Whitmore Ave.
Crows Landing Rd.
Service Rd.
Hackett Rd.
Morgan Rd.
1 - 28 Site Inventory Number
Mixed-Income Affordable
Note: Mixed Income
Affordable means that
the site will host housing
that will accomodate
very low-, low- and
moderate-income levels.
Above Moderate / Moderate
Very Low / Above Moderate
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-9 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 4-3 Distribution of Housing Sites and AFFH Indicators 2021
Household
Median
Income
DP03
2021 Predominant
Race B03002
Diversity
Index
2023
2021
Poverty
Level
S1701
2023 TCAC/HUD
Opportunity Area
2021
Disabled
S1810
2021 Cost
Burden
2021
Overcro
wding
2021
Sustanda
rd
Housing
DP04
2021
Median
Contract
Rent
B25058
2021
Female
Headed
HH
B11001
1 056-055-006 et seq. 2,631 572 293 459 1,307
ADUs 131 39 39 39 13
2,762 611 332 498 1,320
82% 87% 68% 75% 88%
7 053-017-001 6 0 0 0 6
8 053-017-002 4 0 0 0 4
9 053-022-081 5 0 0 0 5
10 053-024-004 6 0 0 0 6
12 053-024-025 11 0 0 11 0
15 053-024-023 7 0 0 7 0
25.05 16 086-034-008 12 0 0 12 0 $72,012 84.3 12.5% Low Resource Area 8.5% 29.5% 8.3% 1.6% $1,326 16.63% 17 127-029-001 2 0 0 2 0
18 127-030-010 2 0 0 2 0
19 053-052-032 67 12 34 21 0 $74,643
25 053-058-056 20 0 0 0 20
26 053-060-001 et seq. 40 20 0 20 0
25.05 28 086-034-004 58 0 0 0 58 $72,012 84.3 12.5% Low Resource Area 8.5% 29.5% 8.3% 1.6% $1,326 16.63% 241 32 34 75 100
7% 5% 7% 11% 7%
NE Whitmore (East of 99, north of E. Whitmore Ave.)
30.03 3 069-015-013 35 0 0 0 35 $77,031 88.5 19.1% Moderate Resource Area 9.3% 59.0% 4% 0% $1,610 18.63% 4 040-086-013 3 0 0 0 3
5 040-086-012 3 0 0 0 3
6 040-086-011 3 0 0 0 3
30.03 11 069-015-011 19 0 0 0 19 $77,031 88.5 19.1% Moderate Resource Area 9.3% 59.0% 4% 0% $1,610 18.63% 13 040-014-090 3 0 0 3 0
14 040-067-047 2 0 0 2 0
20 040-008-010 23 0 23 0 0
21 040-008-011 3 0 3 0 0
22 127-048-006 16 0 16 0 0
26.03 23 127-023-024 28 0 0 28 0 $73,041 76.3 13.1% Moderate Resource Area 9.9% 34.7% 7.2% 0% $1,203 21.76% 139 0 42 33 64
4% 0% 9% 5% 4%
SE Whitmore (East of 99, south of E. Whitmore Ave.)
30.04 2 069-017-001 et seq. 372 76 61 67 168 $89,196 82.1 3.5% Moderate Resource Area 10.1% 24.8% 7.0% 0.0% $1,275 20.6% 24 069-019-038 145 0 29 116 0
27 127-014-034 15 0 0 0 15
532 76 90 183 183
16% 11% 18% 28% 12%
TOTAL CAPACITY 3,673 719 498 789 1,667
RHNA TOTAL 3,361 706 489 661 1,505 RHNA Total % with Buffer 109% 102% 102% 119% 111%
79.3 8.8% Moderate Resource Area 11.5% 66.7% 4.6% 0% $544 15.85%
14.23%
Low Resource Area
79.3 8.80% Moderate Resource Area 11.5% 66.7% 4.6% 0% $544 15.85%
80.8 21.2% 16.1% 55.7% 4.1% 0% $899 14.23%
Segregation/Integration Disproportionate Housing Needs
$49,810
$76,643
$1,1460.0%7.5%$59,444
19.00%$52,485 82.8 19.9% Low Resource Area
$74,643
12.1% 46.0%
19.7%
21.2% Low Resource Area 16.1% 55.7% 4.1% 0% $899
Above
Moderate
Income
Moderate
Income
Low
Income
Very
Low
Income
Total UnitsAPN
41.0%
West Landing (Far West)
Western (West of 99, east of Crows Landing
Total Units
Percent of RHNA
New Site #Ce nsus
Tract
25.04 25.03
25.03 54.7%13.5%Low Resource Area18.3%75.4Hispanic
9.9%
Access to Opportunity
Total Units
Percent of RHNA
Total Units
Percent of RHNA
26.04 26.03
26.04 25.04
$1,09526.02 9.4% 0%Hispanic
Hispanic
85.1 22.7% Low Resource Area 11.9%$61,682
12.1% 46.0% 9.9% 0%
34.7%
Total Units
Percent of RHNA
31 Hispanic
20.87%
$916 19.00%
$1,203 21.76%
82.8 19.9% Low Resource Area
$73,041 76.3 13.1% Moderate Resource Area 7.2% 0.0%
$52,485
$49,810 80.8
9.9% 0% $916
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-10 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 SOURCE: City of Ceres, EMC Planning Group, US Census ACS 5-Year Estimates, HCD AFFH Data Viewer, CTCAC/HCD Opportunity Area Maps NOTES: 1 US Census ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021, Table DP03; census tract level 2 US Census ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021, Table B03002; census tract level 3 HCD AFFH Data Viewer, ESRI, Diversity Index, 2023; census tract level 4 US Census ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021, Table S1701; census tract level 5 CTCAC/HCD Opportunity Area Maps, 2023; census tract level 6 US Census ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021, Table S1810; census tract level 7 HCD AFFH Data Viewer, 2021; census tract level
8 US Census ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021, Table DP04; census tract level; 9 US Census ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021, Table B25058; census tract level 10 US Census ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021, Table B11001; census tract level
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-11 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Mitigating Potential Impacts of Isolating RHNA in New Development Areas To meet its 6th Cycle RHNA of 3,361 units, the City of Ceres is focusing development efforts in newly-annexed areas, with a significant portion of lower-income housing planned within the West Landing Specific Plan (WLSP) area. While this approach effectively addresses the City's housing needs, concentrating lower-income units in specific areas, if not carefully managed, could lead to disparities in neighborhood quality and access to opportunity. Isolating new development in one region can create challenges, including limited access to employment, education, and essential services, as well as the risk of economic and social segregation. Additionally, concentrating development in a single area may result in a lack of investment in other parts of the city that are also in need of resources, potentially leading to uneven infrastructure improvements and perpetuating existing inequalities. To address these concerns, the City has identified $95 million in projects planned for completion over the next five years. These projects are discussed below.
Citywide Infrastructure Investment
The City’s Five-Year Capital Improvement Project (CIP) plan outlines $95 million in projects scheduled for completion over the next five years. Additionally, a planned tertiary treatment facility upgrade will be constructed in phases over the next housing cycle, with a total cost of $155 million.
Combined, the City intends to invest $210 million in CIP projects across Ceres.
The majority of these projects are concentrated in Low-Resource Opportunity areas, as identified by the HCD Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) Data Viewer. These local CIP projects aim to improve residents' quality of life by enhancing water, sewer, pedestrian, bicycle, and public facilities. The City is prioritizing equity by distributing investments across all neighborhoods, not just in the West Landing Specific Plan area.
As illustrated in Figure 4-2, 23 CIP projects are planned for completion during the 2023-2031 planning period. These include:
Pedestrian Sidewalk Improvement Projects (4): Expanding and upgrading pedestrian pathways for accessibility and safety;
Bicycle Improvement Projects (2): Enhancing bike paths for safer, more accessible transportation;
Street Improvement Projects (8): Rehabilitating major and minor roadways for better traffic circulation and safety;
Public Facility Projects (3): Upgrading community infrastructure to provide broader benefits; Water and Storm Drain Improvement Projects (4): Improving water supply and drainage systems; and
Sewer Projects (2): Upgrading critical sewer infrastructure to ensure reliability and reduce backups.
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CITY OF MODESTO
CITY OF CERES
#5 PROJECT SITE
CROWS LANDING REHAB
WHITMORE AV TO SERVICE RD
#4 PROJECT SITE
WHITMORE AV REHAB
MORGAN RD TO CROWS LANDING RD
#1 PROJECT SITE
RICHLAND SEWER REHAB
#11 PROJECT SITE
HATCH RD TRANSMISSION MAIN
MITCHELL RD TAO MOFFETT RD
#23 PROJECT SITE
MOFFETT RD REHAB
HATCH RD TO WHITMORE AV #13 PROJECT SITE
MORROW VILLAGE SIDEWALK IMPROVEMENTS
#14 PROJECT SITE
HSIP MITCHELL MEDIANS
WHITMORE TO FOWLER
#15 PROJECT SITE
HSIP WHITMORE MEDIANS
MOFFETT & WHITMORE INTERSECTION
#16 PROJECT SITE
WHITMORE PARK GAZEBO
#18 PROJECT SITE
SERVICE RD BRIDGE OVER TID CANAL
#19 PROJECT SITE
SERVICE/MITCHELL RD INTERCHANGE
#20 PROJECT SITE
SERVICE RD DESIGN REVIEW
#12 PROJECT SITE
OCHOA PARK PHASE 2
#7 PROJECT SITE
PAVEMENT PRESERVATION SITE NO. 1
#7 PROJECT SITE
PAVEMENT PRESERVATION SITE NO. 3
#2 PROJECT SITE
BIKE LANE CORRIDOR PHASE 2
#17 PROJECT SITE
BIKE LANE CORRIDOR PHASE 1
#9 PROJECT SITE
RICHLAND SIDEWALK IMPROVEMENTS
#6 PROJECT SITE
FIRE TRAINING TOWER
#10 PROJECT SITE
HATCH RD TRANMISSION MAIN
MOFFETT RD TO RICHLAND AV
#21 PROJECT SITE
CENTRAL/HACKETT RD
PEDESTRIAN IMPROVEMENTS
#3 PROJECT SITE
WELL 22 GAC TREATMENT
#22 PROJECT SITE
CENTRAL AV STORM REPAIR
#8 PROJECT SITE
LUCHESSI SEWER REHAB
#7 PROJECT SITE
PAVEMENT PRESERVATION SITE NO. 2
PROJECT SITE LOCATIONS CITY OF CERESDATE: 10-08-24
Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element
Planned Capital Improvement Projects
Figure 4-2
Source: City of Ceres 2024
STATE HIGHWAYS
State Route 1
State Route 68
State Route 156
U.S. HIGHWAYS
U.S. Highway 101
INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS
Interstate 5 or I-5
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-13 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 These projects collectively deliver significant improvements to Low- and Moderate-Resource Opportunity areas, fostering equity and enhancing quality of life for all residents. Each category of improvement is detailed below.
Pedestrian Sidewalk Improvement Projects
Pavement Restoration Projects (Peachwood, Old Vineyard, Landreth, Northridge, Fruitridge, and Orchard Subdivisions)- Project 7;
Richland Sidewalk Project- Project 9;
Morrow Village Sidewalk Improvements- Project 13; and Central/Hackett Road Pedestrian Improvements- Project 21.
The City is implementing four pedestrian sidewalk projects to install or upgrade sidewalks in underserved areas lacking basic public infrastructure such as curbs, gutters, and sidewalks. These areas have historically been neglected due to disinvestment, limited infrastructure funding, residents' lower political influence, or prioritization of other essential services.
Investing in sidewalk installation and repair in these low-resource neighborhoods will enhance safety by providing pedestrians with a designated space away from vehicles. Additionally, the new sidewalks will encourage walking, promoting public health and increasing safety through more "eyes on the street," which helps deter crime. The City's investment also signals a commitment to these neighborhoods, encouraging residents to improve their properties. Furthermore, the addition of curbs and gutters will mitigate flooding and standing water, reducing health risks associated with mosquitoes.
The total cost of the sidewalk projects is approximately $10.4 million. A significant portion of this budget, $8 million, is allocated to Project 13 in Morrow Village, funded through a CDBG grant.
Morrow Village, which currently lacks sidewalks, curbs, and gutters, is nearing the completion of two out of three phases. Local Measure L funds will cover the remaining costs. The other sidewalk projects will begin once Phase III of Morrow Village is complete.
Bicycle Improvement Projects
Bike Lane Corridor Phases 1 and 2- Projects 2 and 17
These two bike projects will create over three miles of bike lanes in low resource areas of the city.
As a whole, the city lacks safe alternative modes of transportation, and by installing the bike lanes in low resource areas, the City is providing the community a more accessible way to get to work, school, and other activities. Not only will the bike lanes encourage non-motorized transportation, these areas of the city will see a reduction in traffic, GHG emissions, and overall congestion.
Together the two Phases will cost $1 million. The City received funding through the Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ) program to complete the project. The projects will be completed as the adjacent road work projects are started.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-14 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Street Improvement Projects
Whitmore Avenue Rehabilitation- Project 4
The Whitmore Avenue Pavement Rehabilitation Project will improve approximately 1.0 mile of Whitmore Avenue, a minor arterial roadway, from Crows Landing Road to Morgan Road. The project will address pavement failures, reconstruct curb ramps to meet ADA compliance, replace damaged curbs and gutters, update pavement markings and striping, install traffic detector loops, adjust utility covers, and implement storm drainage and other necessary improvements to enhance roadway conditions.
Located in a low-resource area of the City, this project aims to establish adequate infrastructure where it is currently lacking, fostering greater equity and accessibility. The total project cost of $4,113,798.29 is funded through SB 1, State infrastructure block grants, and Measure L funds. Crows Landing Rehabilitation- Project 5
This project will install sewer and storm drainage facilities in a low-resource area of the City currently lacking publicly accessible utilities. These improvements will make the area more attractive for new investment, as the cost of installing such utilities has been a significant barrier to development.
The project, with a total cost of $9,000,000.00, is funded through the Sewer Enterprise Fund, SB 1, and Measure L. Construction is scheduled to begin in June 2025 and is expected to be completed by March 2026.
HSIP Mitchell Road and Whitmore Avenue Medians- Project 14 and 15 These projects will install medians on two of the city’s busiest arterial roads, addressing the safety hazard posed by unprotected left turns. By improving traffic safety in low-resource areas, the City is prioritizing the well-being of both drivers and pedestrians in these communities.
Funded through the Highway Safety Improvement Program, the project has a total cost of $285,000.00.
Service Road Bridge Project- Project 18
This structurally deficient bridge, located in a low-resource area of the city, will undergo repairs to enhance safety for vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. The redesigned bridge will improve sightlines for drivers, provide sidewalks and bike lanes, and connect to a multi-use path on the east side of the canal, improving connectivity within the area.
This project, funded by the Highway Bridge Program, is estimated to cost $600,000.00. The design phase will be funded in fiscal year 2025-2026, with construction scheduled for fiscal year 2027-2028.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-15 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Service/Mitchell Road Interchange- Project 19
The Service/Mitchell Road Interchange will be a new freeway interchange for the City of Ceres, located in a low-resource area. This project will enhance regional mobility by improving access to and from SR-99, while also boosting local traffic circulation and safety to accommodate planned growth along Mitchell and Service Roads.
As a key gateway to the City, the interchange is expected to spur economic development and increase the area’s overall economic value. The project is estimated to cost $150 million. The design phase will be completed within the next two years, with funding sourced from local Measure L regional funds and future federal and state grants.
Service Road Design Review- Project 20
This project involves a feasibility study to widen Service Road from SR-99 to Crows Landing to its full width. Located in a low-resource area, this section of Service Road is currently overly congested and is expected to face increased traffic as the SR-99 project progresses. The proposed widening aims to improve circulation and alleviate traffic impacts in the area.
The study has an estimated cost of $250,000.00 but is not currently funded. Moffett Road Rehabilitation Project- Project 23
The Moffett Road Pavement Rehabilitation Project will improve approximately 1.0 mile of roadway from Hatch Road to Whitmore Avenue. The project addresses major pavement fatigue and includes reconstructing curb ramps to meet ADA compliance, replacing damaged curbs and gutters, updating pavement markings and striping, installing traffic detector loops, adjusting utility covers, enhancing storm drainage, and other necessary roadway improvements.
Located in a low-resource area of the City, this project will enhance safety, promote economic activity, and foster community pride through improved infrastructure. The total project cost is $190,241.90, funded by Measure L.
Public Facilities Improvement Projects
Fire Training Tower- Project 6
The Fire Training Tower Facility, formerly Ceres Fire Station No. 3, is located at 420 Service Road.
While situated in a moderate-resource area, it is adjacent to a low-resource neighborhood. The project involves rehabilitating an unused, blighted structure and repurposing it as a multi-agency training facility. This facility will provide critical training for Ceres staff and personnel from other local agencies, ensuring the community has well-prepared and highly trained front-line responders.
The project cost is $1,013,582.05, funded through the City’s General Fund and partnerships with other user agencies.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-16 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Ochoa Park Phase 2- Project 12
Phase 2 of Ochoa Park will complete a long-standing park project in a moderate-resource area of the City. Planned improvements include paved pathways, sidewalks, picnic tables, basketball courts, shade structures, and enhanced landscaping with trees, turf, and shrubs. As the City has few full- service parks, Ochoa Park will serve as a valuable amenity for the entire community.
The park's safe, well-lit, and clean environment will provide all residents with a space to play, gather, and enjoy recreational activities. The project, costing $1,910,715.23, is funded through impact fees and is scheduled for completion by the end of 2024.
Whitmore Park Gazebo- Project 16
Whitmore Park, located in a low-resource area of the City, serves as a central community hub. Its gazebo, a local landmark, has fallen into disrepair. The reconstruction of the gazebo will provide a safer, more functional space for community gatherings and celebrations, preserving an important piece of Ceres’ history. The upgraded Whitmore Gazebo project will cost $491,649.00, funded through ARPA funds. The old structure has been demolished, and construction of the new gazebo is expected to be completed by mid-2025.
Water and Strom Improvement Projects
Well 22 GAC Treatment Project- Project 3
The Well 22 GAC Treatment Project will install four granular activated carbon (GAC) vessels, along with all necessary piping and fittings, to ensure proper groundwater filtration in a low-resource area of the City. This area currently lacks sufficient access to potable water, and the new GAC system will significantly increase the community’s potable water supply.
By enhancing infrastructure, the project ensures equitable access to safe drinking water for all residents. The total project cost is $3,114,100.00, funded through the City’s water enterprise fund. Hatch Road Transmission Main Phases I and II- Projects 9 and 10 The Hatch Road Transmission Main Phases I and II aim to improve water pressure in a historically low-pressure area of the City, which is also a low-resource community. Enhanced water pressure will not only improve residents' quality of life but may also increase property values in the area.
Low water pressure often results from aging, corroded pipes, inadequate infrastructure, and insufficient maintenance. By investing in this project, the City is addressing a long-standing issue and demonstrating its commitment to equitable infrastructure improvements.
The total cost of both phases is $4,417,000, funded through the Water Enterprise Fund. Phase I is nearing completion, with Phase II scheduled to begin in mid-2025.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-17 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Central Avenue Storm Drain Repair- Project 22
The Central Avenue Storm Drain Repair project addressed a collapsed section of an 18-inch storm drain pipe, which had caused obstructed water flow, blockages, and roadway damage. The collapse highlighted the need for improved infrastructure in this low-resource area of the City.
The new storm drain pipe ensures better water flow and reduces the risk of future roadway issues, fostering a more equitable living environment for residents. The project cost $91,600 and was funded through the City’s Water Enterprise Fund. It was successfully completed in August 2024.
Sewer Projects
Richland Sewer Rehabilitation- Project 1
This project involves replacing approximately 1,850 linear feet of 18-inch VC sewer line, along with all related piping, clean-outs, laterals, and restoration on Richland Avenue between Gidding Street and Evans Road. The total project cost is $872,225.00, funded by the City’s Sewer Fund.
Located in a low-resource area in the north-central part of the City, this neighborhood has experienced frequent sewer backups due to slow flow rates and recurring obstructions. The project will replace outdated infrastructure, ensuring the community has reliable and well-maintained sewer systems, improving residents' quality of life.
Luchessi Sewer Rehabilitation- Project 8
This project will replace the aging sanitary sewer main on Luchessi Lane, which is failing due to its age. The project will cost $299,136.00 and is funded by the City’s Sewer Fund.
By replacing the old pipe, this CIP project ensures the community has reliable and well-maintained infrastructure, contributing to a higher quality of life and potentially increasing property values in the area.
4.7 Census Tract Analysis
Ceres is located across several census tracts, of which nine are anticipated for new housing development during the next eight-year planning cycle. When analyzing AFFH indicators according to census tract in Ceres, there is geographic variation for some indicators, meaning households may experience differences in access to opportunity and/or experience disproportionate housing needs.
Please note: several of the City’s housing opportunity sites in the inventory list are comprised of multiple parcels (referred to as APNs (Assessor’s Parcel Numbers). Each APN is shown with a separate dot symbol on Figures 4-3 through 4-11.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-18 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Potential Effect on Access to Opportunity
TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas
TCAC/HCD categorized census tracts into high, moderate, or low resource areas based on a composite score of economic, education, and environmental factors that have the ability to perpetuate poverty and segregation. These factors include: school proficiency, median income, median housing prices, and environmental pollution.
Table 4-4 and Figure 4-3 show the distribution of housing opportunity units at each income level according to their designated resource area. According to the 2023 TCAC/HCD opportunity map, Ceres is comprised of low, moderate, and high resource areas. Overall, the city is designated a low resource area (Figure 4-1). Citywide, there are four census tracts designated as moderate resource areas: Census Tract 25.04, located in the western quadrant, Census Tracts 26.03 and 30.03, located in the northeast quadrant, and Census Tract 30.04, located in the southeast quadrant of the city.
Census Tract 27.01 is the only high resource area in the city, however, due to its lack of proximity to public services, employment opportunities, and other amenities no housing opportunity sites are planned here. The city's ability to accommodate residential land uses has been significantly impacted by the implementation of specific plans over the last two decades, which have expanded public services and amenities along the city’s fringe areas. Recent examples of such plans are the West Landing and Whitmore Ranch Specific Plan Areas, which are expanding public services and amenities available to residents in the western and eastern regions of the city, respectively. As residential development continues to increase in Ceres, it is likely that plans will be developed to improve accessibility in the northeastern region of the city.
As shown in Table 4-4, of the 3,673 projected housing opportunity sites, 596 units (16 percent) can be accommodated in the moderate resource area and 3,077 units (84 percent) can be accommodated in low resource areas. Units anticipated in the moderate resource area of the city are distributed across all income categories, including a total of 34 percent for lower-income households. Units anticipated in the low resource areas of the city include, 46 percent in the above moderate-income category, 33 percent in the lower-income category, and 21 percent in the moderate-income category.
Table 4-4 Site Inventory Unit Count by TCAC/HCD Opportunity Area, 2023 Income Group Low Resource Percent Moderate Resource Percent Very Low-Income 611 20% 108 18%
Low Income 403 13% 95 16%
Moderate-Income 648 21% 141 24%
Above Moderate-Income 1,415 46% 252 42%
Total 3,077 (84%) 100% 596 (16%) 100%
SOURCE: TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas Map, 2023; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-19 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-3 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-20 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Economic Opportunities
Table 4-5 and Figure 4-4 show the distribution of anticipated housing opportunity units at each income level according to economic opportunity. In Ceres, economic outcomes vary by census tract, primarily ranging from moderate to more positive (0.25 to 0.75) economic outcomes.
Table 4-5 Site Inventory Unit Count by TCAC/HCD Economic Opportunity, 2021 Income
Group
Less Positive
(<0.25)
Moderately
Positive
(0.25-0.50)
More Positive
(0.50-0.75) Total Units
Very Low-Income 0 611 108 719
Low Income 42 361 95 498
Moderate-Income - 636 153 789
Above Moderate-
Income 10 1,346 310 1,667
Total 52 (1%) 2,954 (80%) 666 (18%) 3,673
SOURCE: TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas Map, 2023; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group As shown in Table 4-5, approximately 80 percent of anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts associated with moderately positive economic outcomes (0.25-0.50), 18 percent are located in census tracts with more positive outcomes (0.50-0.75), and 1 percent are located in census tracts with less positive outcomes (<0.25). The census tracts with more positive economic outcomes include 25.04, 25.05, 26.03, 30.03, and 30.04. Each of these census tracts coincide with higher median household incomes ($55,000-$90,100) and low poverty levels (0-20 percent).
The distribution of units in census tracts with moderate to more positive economic outcomes work to reduce the concentration of lower-income households in areas that may present barriers to economic mobility. Additionally, increasing housing supply will be coupled with programs to incentivize the development of affordable housing for lower-income and special needs households (Programs 3.1, 3.2, 3.8, and 3.11 see Chapter 2).
To address barriers to economic mobility for lower-income households, the City will develop strategies to address income earning potential of lower-income residents by expanding low-barrier, low-skill job opportunities within the City. These efforts will be regulated through Program 5.5, which involves partnering with the Ceres Chamber of Commerce and other community-based organizations to expand job opportunities in Ceres (see Chapter 2).
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-21 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-4 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Economic Opportunity SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-22 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Educational Opportunities
TCAC’s education score is based on math proficiency, reading proficiency, high school graduation rates, and the student poverty rate. Figure 4-5 illustrates the distribution of housing opportunity units at each income level according to educational opportunity.
As shown in Figure 4-5, the TCAC/HCD educational opportunity score for Ceres is 0.25 indicating less positive outcomes. In Ceres, there is no geographic variation in educational opportunity based on census tract, meaning residents across the city experience similar access to educational opportunity. As a result, all anticipated housing units are located in census tracts with less positive educational outcomes.
According to the Ceres Unified School District (CUSD), graduation rates for 2022 were 91.8 percent, which is higher than the statewide average (87.4 percent). 1 Additionally, there appears to be
no correlation between resource areas and poverty rates or median household income in Ceres. Both low and moderate resource areas alike coincide with both lower and higher poverty rates and median incomes above and below $55,000. This is evidenced by Census Tracts 25.03, 25.04, 26.02, and
26.03 (Table 4-3, Figure 4-1, Figure 4-7, Figure 4-8). As a result, it is difficult to definitively identify what factors contribute to Ceres’ low educational opportunity score identified by TCAC and HCD.
The arrival of the Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) train and increased housing supply is expected to expand both educational and economic opportunities for Ceres households. Increased housing supply and transportation pathways will provide opportunities for growth in the school district’s workforce, which may result in better education, as well as expanding the ability of Ceres residents to seek higher education and economic opportunity through improved public transportation.
1 https://www.caschooldashboard.org/reports/50710430000000/2022/academic -engagement#graduation-rate
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-23 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-5 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Educational Opportunity
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-24 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Environmental Health Outcomes
The TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas Environmental scores are based on the CalEnviroScreen 4.0 indicators, which identify areas disproportionately vulnerable to pollution sources such as ozone, PM2.5, diesel PM, pesticides, toxic release, traffic, cleanup sites, groundwater threats, hazardous waste, impaired water bodies, and solid waste sites. Table 4-6 and Figure 4-6 show the distribution of anticipated housing opportunity units at each income level according to environmental health outcomes.
As shown in Table 4-6, approximately 77 percent of the anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts where environmental pollutants are highest (91-100 th percentile). These
census tracts include 26.04 and 31, both of which are designated low resource areas.
Census Tract 26.04 is located east of Highway 99 and includes a mix of uses, including residential, commercial, and office uses. Just west of Highway 99 and adjacent to Census Tract 26.04 is Census Tract 25.04, which consists of parcels zoned for General Industrial and Light Industrial use and may contribute to higher environmental pollutants. However, Census Tract 25.04 has a lower CalEnviroScreen score (71-80 percent) than Census Tract 26.04. Therefore, it is unclear why Census Tract 26.04 falls within the 91-100 percentile.
Census Tract 31 includes the West Landing Specific Plan Area, which is intended to accommodate the majority of housing opportunity units. This area is primarily comprised of vacant agricultural land, which likely contributes to environmental pollution. However, agricultural uses are anticipated to sunset in order to develop a mix of residential and commercial uses in the area, which will likely result in a reduction of environmental pollutants.
Table 4-6 Site Inventory Unit Count by TCAC/HCD Environmental Health, 2021 Income
Group
Less Negative
Environmental
Factors
61-70%
71-80% 81-90%
More Negative
Environmental
Factors
91-100%
Total Units
Very Low-
Income - 108 - 611 719
Low Income - 95 29 374 498
Moderate-
Income 33 108 150 498 789
Above
Moderate-
Income
- 252 84 1,330 1,667
Total 33 (1%) 563 (15%) 263 (7%) 2,813 (77%) 3,673
SOURCE: TCAC/HCD Opportunity Areas Map, 2023; City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-25 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 As discussed in Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report of the housing element, 10 census tracts across Ceres have been identified as disadvantaged communities, including the following census tracts for which housing opportunity units are anticipated, 25.03, 25.04, 25.05,
26.02, 26.04, and 31. The primary factors affecting these disadvantaged communities are high levels of fine particulate matter, ozone pollution, and contaminated drinking water. 2 Since many
communities in the city are designated as disadvantaged, increasing residential opportunities along with implementing programs to improve infrastructure and economic opportunities is intended to improve conditions.
To address environmental justice within the disadvantaged communities, the City has identified a number of policies and programs in the Ceres General Plan 2035. For more in-depth information regarding disadvantaged communities in Ceres, refer to the Ceres General Plan 2035.
2 Ceres General Plan 2035, page 5-10.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-26 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-6 Sites Inventory Analysis by TCAC/HCD Environmental Health SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-27 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Potential Effect on Patterns of Integration and Segregation Diversity
Table 4-7 and Figure 4-7 show the distribution of anticipated housing opportunity units at each income level according to diversity levels and predominant populations. As discussed in Appendix A – Housing Needs and Fair Housing Report, Ceres is a minority majority community.
Hispanic/Latino residents comprise the largest racial/ethnic group in Ceres (61 percent), followed by non-Hispanic White (24 percent), and Asian populations (7 percent). As shown in Figure 4-5, there is no variation in predominant population according to location; Hispanic/Latino residents makeup the majority in both low resource and moderate resource areas across Ceres.
Table 4-7 reports the distribution of units at each income level by the Diversity Index score developed by ESRI in 2023, which represents the likelihood that two persons, chosen at random from the same area, belong to different race or ethnic groups. All census tracts in Ceres are considered highly diverse, therefore, anticipated units across all income levels are planned in census tracts that have diverse existing populations (receiving an index score between 70 to 85 percent).
The distribution of units is intended to support a balanced living environment for Ceres residents.
Increasing the supply of housing affordable to a range of income categories is intended to provide an opportunity for lower-income households to obtain adequate and affordable housing in the city.
To ensure racial/ethnic background does not present a barrier to fair housing in Ceres, the City will continue to promote equal housing opportunity for all persons (see Program. 5.1 in Chapter 2).
Table 4-7 Site Inventory Unit Count by Diversity Index, 2023 Income Group High Diversity (70-
85%)
Highest Diversity
(Greater than 85%) Total Units
Units Percent Units Percent
Very Low-Income 719 20% - - 719
Low Income 498 14% - - 498
Moderate-Income 789 22% - - 789
Above Moderate-Income 1,613 45% 54 100% 1,667
Total 3,619 100% 54 100% 3,673
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer, City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-28 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-7 Sites Inventory Analysis by Predominant Population SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-29 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Household Income & Poverty
Figure 4-8 and Figure 4-9 illustrate the distribution of anticipated housing opportunity units at each income level according to median income and poverty status, respectively. According to Figure 4-8, the median income in the majority of the City ranges between $55,000 to $90,100 according to census tract. However, a few areas exist where the median income is less than $50,000. Of the census tracts for which housing opportunity sites are anticipated, Census Tracts 25.03 and 26.04 have median incomes less than $55,000, both of which coincide with higher rates of poverty ranging between 20 to 30 percent (Figure 4-9). Census Tract 25.03 is anticipated to accommodate approximately 11 above moderate-income and 22 moderate-income units, and Census Tract 26.04 is anticipated to accommodate approximately 52 units ranging from very low- to above moderate- income.
Table 4-8 reports the distribution of housing opportunity sites by income category according to median income and poverty status. Approximately 98 percent of the lower-income sites are located in census tracts that have a lower rate of poverty (0 to 20 percent of households), while 2 percent are located in census tracts where living below poverty is more common (20-30 percent of households).
Of the 98 percent of lower-income sites that are located in low poverty census tracts, approximately 97 percent are in census tracts with a median income between $55,000-$90,100 and 3 percent are in census tracts with a median income of less than $55,000. Overall, 93 percent of anticipated units are located in census tracts with a median income between $55,000-$90,100 and a low poverty rate (0 to 20 percent).
Table 4-8 Site Inventory Unit Count by Median Income and Poverty Status Income
Group
Poverty Levels
0-20%
Poverty Levels
21-30%
Poverty Levels
0-20%
Poverty Levels
21-30% Total
Units Less than $55,000 $55,000-$90,100
Units % Units % Units % Units %
Very Low-
Income - 0% - - 719 21% - - 719
Low Income 42 80% - - 427 12% 29 18% 498
Moderate-
Income - - 22 66% 651 19% 116 73% 789
Above
Moderate-
Income
10 20% 11 34% 1,630 48% 15 9% 1,667
Total 52 100% 33 100% 3,427 100% 160 100% 3,673
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-30 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 The distribution of units is intended to prevent income based segregated living patterns, while also alleviating existing affordability pressures for lower-income households. Generally, increasing the housing supply in the city will provide increased opportunities for local employees to obtain housing in the city.
To address barriers to economic mobility for lower-income households, the City will develop strategies to address income earning potential of lower-income residents by expanding low-barrier, low-skill job opportunities within the City. These efforts will be regulated through Program 5.5, which involves partnering with the Ceres Chamber of Commerce and other community-based organizations to expand job opportunities in Ceres (see Chapter 2).
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-31 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-8 Sites Inventory Analysis by Median Income
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-32 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-9 Sites Inventory Analysis by Poverty Status
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-33 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Female-Headed, Single-Parent Households
According to 2021 ACS data, female-headed households comprise 18 percent of all households in Ceres. Table 4-9 reports the distribution of anticipated housing opportunity units at each income level according to the concentrations of single-parent families with a female-headed householder.
Table 4-9 Sites Inventory Unit Count by Female-Headed Households Income Group
Female-Headed
Households
10-15%
Female-Headed
Households
16-21% Total Units
Units % Percent %
Very Low-Income 32 49% 687 19% 719
Low Income 0 0% 498 14% 498
Moderate-Income 22 34% 767 21% 789
Above Moderate-
Income 11 17% 1,655 46% 1,667
Total 65 (2%) 100% 3,608 (98%) 100% 3,673
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group As shown in Table 4-9, approximately 2 percent of anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts that have concentrations ranging between 10 to 15 percent female-headed households. Approximately 98 percent of anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts where female-headed households comprise between 16 to 21 percent of all households.
Of this percentage, 5 percent of units are anticipated to be located in Census Tracts 26.02 and 26.03, where concentrations of female-headed households represent 20 percent or more of the population.
Census Tract 26.02 coincides with slightly higher rates of poverty and is designated a low resource area. Census Tract 26.02 is anticipated to accommodate approximately 160 units ranging from low- to above-moderate income. Census Tract 26.03 is designated a moderate resource area with lower rates of poverty and is anticipated to accommodate approximately 33 moderate-income units. Due to a lack of available mapping data, a map illustrating concentrations of female-headed households across Ceres is not provided.
Of the 5 percent of anticipated housing opportunity units located in census tracts with higher percentages of female-headed households (>20 percent), approximately 45 percent are lower- income, 47 percent are moderate-income, and 8 percent are above moderate-income.
The distribution of units in census tracts with low percentages of female-headed households works to reduce the concentration of female-headed households in the City’s low resource area, while the increase in units throughout the city will address community needs and demand for affordability.
Overall, the increase in affordable units will result in a balanced environment, meeting the needs of
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-34 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 residents. Additionally, increasing housing supply will be coupled with programs to incentivize the development of affordable housing for lower-income and special needs households (Programs 3.1,
3.2, 3.8, and 3.11 see Chapter 2).
Population with a Disability
According to 2021 ACS data, approximately 12 percent of Ceres’ population live with at least one disability. Table 4-10 and Figure 4-10 show the distribution of anticipated housing opportunity units at each income level according to the percentage of the population living with a disability.
Table 4-10 Sites Inventory Unit Count by Population with a Disability Income Group
Population with a Disability
<0-10%
Population with a Disability
11-20% Total Units
Units % Units %
Very Low-Income 76 14% 643 20% 719
Low Income 61 12% 437 14% 498
Moderate-Income 112 21% 677 22% 789
Above Moderate-Income 280 53% 1,387 44% 1667
Total 529 (14%) 100% 3,144 (86%) 100% 3,673
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group As shown in Table 4-10, approximately 14 percent of the anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts where up to 10 percent of the population live with a disability, and 86 percent of the units are located in census tracts where between 11 to 20 percent of the population live with a disability. There is no correlation between disability rates and resource areas in Ceres, as census tracts with higher percentages of the population living with a disability are spread across both low and moderate resource areas.
As shown in Figure 4-10, the majority of census tracts in Ceres have a population between 10 to 20 percent living with a disability. One census tract (26.05) has a higher concentration of 20 to 30 percent of persons living with a disability, however, there are no housing opportunity sites anticipated there.
Increasing housing supply in these areas is expected to prevent or mitigate the overpayment, housing scarcity, and displacement that lower-income persons with disabilities are susceptible to. To address barriers to obtaining accessible and affordable housing for residents/households living with a disability, the City has included Program 3.5 and Program 3.9, which commit the City to facilitating the construction of accessible housing and providing support to residents with disabilities in accessing services, researching grant monies, and accommodating flexibility in design review (see Chapter 2).
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-35 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-10 Sites Inventory Analysis by Population with a Disability
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres; EMC Planning Group
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-36 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Potential Effect on Disproportionate Housing Needs & Displacement Risk Overcrowding
Overcrowding is defined as a household with more than one occupant per room excluding bathrooms and kitchens. Units with more than 1.5 persons per room are considered severely overcrowded. According to 2021 ACS data, approximately 9 percent of households in Ceres experience some level of overcrowded living conditions. Table 4-11 and Figure 4-11 show the distribution of housing opportunity units at each income level according to overcrowding.
Table 4-11 Sites Inventory Unit Count by Overcrowding
Income Group
Overcrowding
0-5%
Overcrowding
6-10%
Total Units
Units %
Units
%
Very Low-Income 32 14% 687 20% 719
Low Income 34 15% 464 13% 498
Moderate-Income 63 28% 726 21% 789
Above Moderate-
Income 95 43% 1,571 46% 1,667
Total 224 (6%) 100% 3,449 (94%) 100% 3,673
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021; City of Ceres As shown in Table 4-11, approximately 94 percent of anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts where up to 10 percent of households experience overcrowding.
Approximately 6 percent of anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts where less than 5 percent of the households experience overcrowding. As discussed in Appendix A – Housing Needs and Fair Housing Report, the level of overcrowding in Ceres is consistent with Stanislaus County and nearby jurisdictions, ranging from 3 to 10 percent.
This distribution of housing opportunity units is anticipated to reduce the concentration of overcrowding by increasing housing supplying in census tracts that are currently in need of affordable and adequately sized housing. The City has developed a suite of programs to facilitate the development of a variety of housing types for all income levels (Programs 3.1, 3.2, 3.8, 3.13 (see Chapter 2)).
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-37 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-11 Sites Inventory Analysis by Overcrowding
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-38 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Cost Burden & Displacement Risk
Cost burden is measured as households spending more than 30 percent of their gross income including utilities for housing. Consistent with the region, households throughout Ceres are overpaying for housing due to rapidly increasing market conditions that outpace wage increases.
Table 4-12 and Figure 4-12 show the distribution of housing opportunity units at each income level according to the percentage of cost burdened renter households.
Table 4-12 Site Inventory Unit Count by Cost Burdened Renter Households Income Group
Cost Burdened
Renter Households
20-40%
Cost Burdened Renter
Households
41-60%
Cost Burdened Renter
Households
Greater than 60%
Total Units
Units % Units % Units %
Very Low-Income 76 16% 611 20% 32 23% 719
Low Income 61 13% 403 13% 34 25% 498
Moderate-Income 112 24% 636 21% 41 30% 789
Above Moderate-
Income 226 48% 1,411 46% 30 22% 1,667
Total 475 (13%) 100% 3,061 (83%) 100% 137 (4%) 100% 3,673 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2021; City of Ceres As shown in Table 4-12, approximately 83 percent of the anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts where 41 to 60 percent of renter households experience cost burden. These concentrations of cost burdened renter households are located in Census Tracts 25.03, 26.02, 26.04,
30.03, and 31. Increasing the supply of lower- and moderate-income housing in these areas will alleviate conditions that contribute to cost burden and reduce displacement risk for households experiencing cost burden by reducing the gap between supply and demand for affordable housing.
Thirteen (13) percent of anticipated housing opportunity units are located in census tracts where 20 to 40 percent of renter households experience cost burden and 4 percent are located in census tracts where more than 60 percent of renter households are cost burdened. There is no correlation between cost burden rates and resource areas in Ceres, as census tracts with higher percentages of cost burdened renter households are spread across both low and moderate resource areas.
Of the census tracts anticipated for new housing development, Census Tract 25.04 has the highest concentration of cost burdened renter households (more than 60 percent). Census Tract 25.04 coincides with low poverty rates (less than 10 percent), low overcrowding rates (less than 5 percent), has a median income over $70,000, and is designated a moderate resource area. Approximately 10 above moderate-income units (less than 1 percent of all housing units) are planned to be constructed within this census tract, which may exacerbate existing affordability pressures for lower-income households living nearby.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-39 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 However, 20 deed-restricted very low- and 20 moderate-income single-family units within Tuscany Village may offset and balance affordability needs for new housing units within this census tract.
Construction of Tuscany Village, north of the Pipeline Site #25 (Cherry Hollow) has resumed since being disrupted by Covid-19.
The Cherry Hollow pipeline housing opportunity site includes 20 housing units, which will be composed of five duplex buildings, two four-plex buildings, and two single family buildings.
Appendix C conservatively projects that these units will all be above moderate-income units, though with these typologies, it is likely that some of the units may become non-deed-restricted moderate- income units.
The distribution of lower-income units in areas with high rates of cost burden among renter households is intended to alleviate affordability pressures by meeting the demand. Additionally, distributing some moderate and above-moderate income units in these areas aims to create a balanced socioeconomic environment to avoid segregated living patterns.
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-40 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure 4-12 Sites Inventory Analysis by Cost Burdened Renter Households
SOURCE: HCD AFFH Data Viewer; City of Ceres
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Chapter 4.0 – AFFH Analysis of the Site Inventory 4-41 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
4.8 Summary and Conclusions
The housing opportunity sites identified in this report are sufficient to accommodate 108 percent of Ceres’ Regional Housing Needs Allocation for the 6th Cycle planning period, meeting minimum counts for lower-income housing needs. Selected sites for the Sites Inventory are distributed throughout the city and are anticipated to decrease segregation and increase opportunities through integration of affordability levels for housing units. Details on existing uses, zoning, and capacity analysis are available in Appendix C.
Generally, Ceres is classified as a low-resource area with high diversity, low poverty levels, and a predominantly Hispanic/Latino population. Median household income varies by census tract, ranging from less than $55,000 to $90,100 annually. Household overcrowding rates range from 0 to 10 percent, while renter cost burdens vary from 20 to 60 percent across tracts. Female-headed households account for 18 percent of all households, with the highest concentrations (over 20 percent) in the eastern region.
Citywide investment is critical to address infrastructure deficiencies and improve economic, educational, and environmental health outcomes. To mitigate these challenges and support development, Ceres has developed targeted place-based strategies (Programs 5.4 and 5.5, see Chapter 2). These strategies focus on enhancing community assets, infrastructure, opportunities, and environmental health, supported by significant investments through the City’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP).
To address barriers to obtaining affordable housing for lower-income and special needs households, the City has developed a suite of programs to facilitate the construction of housing affordable to lower-income households and support lower-income households through continued education and acting as a liaison with community service providers (Programs 1.5, 1.9, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.8,
3.9, 3.11, 3.12, 3.13, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5 see Chapter 2).
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
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Section 5.0 – Energy Conservation 5-1 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025
5.0 Energy Conservation
5.1 Introduction
This chapter summarizes opportunities for energy conservation in the construction of housing in the City of Ceres.
5.2 Opportunities for Energy Conservation
In accordance with SB 375, the Stanislaus County Council of Governments adopted a Regional Transportation/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) in 2022. The plan serves to integrate land use, transportation, and housing planning to improve proximity and connectivity of jobs and housing to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This plan requires all municipalities in the County to adopt land use and transportation policies that align with the RTP/SCS.
Turlock Irrigation District Energy Efficiency Programming Turlock Irrigation District (TID) is a not-for-profit irrigation, water, and electric utility provider that serves Central California, providing the City of Ceres with energy efficiency services.
Turlock Irrigation District also offers public information and technical assistance to homeowners regarding energy conservation. TID also provides numerous incentives for energy efficiency in new construction and home remodeling. For example, remodeling rebates exist for projects installing upgrades from a flexible menu of options that earn points towards incentives and rebates. One of the more recent strategies in building energy-efficient homes is following the U.S. Green Building Council's guidelines for LEED Certification. The LEED for Homes program includes standards for new single-family and multi-family home construction.
Additionally, TID provides residents with information regarding energy saving measures including various incentives and programs available to developers and residential property owners. Table 5-1 provides a description of the various financial and energy-related assistance that TID and regional partners offer low-income customers.
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Section 5.0 – Energy Conservation 5-2 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table 5-1 Stanislaus County Programs and Incentives for Residential Properties Program Description
Turlock Irrigation District
Weatherization Program TID’s Weatherization program offers free weatherization measures and energy- efficient appliances to qualified low-income households. TID determines qualified households through a sliding income scale based on the size of a household. The program includes measures such as attic insulation, weather stripping, caulking, and minor home repairs. Some customers qualify for replacement of appliances including electric water heaters, air conditioners and evaporative coolers.
TID Cares Program The TID Cares Program provides qualifying residential customers an $11 discount on their residential customer charge, as well as 15 percent off the first 800 kilowatt- hours (kWh) of use. Eligibility is dependent on several criteria listed online. 1 Central Valley Opportunity Center
Home Energy Assistance Program The Home Energy Assistance Program provides one payment per year to utility companies for low-income individuals. TID customers apply through the Central Valley Opportunity Center. To be eligible, the individual must be a Stanislaus County resident and income must be at or below 130 percent of the poverty level per the Federal Register.
Energy Crisis Intervention Program The Energy Crisis Intervention Program provides one payment per year to utility companies for low-income customers that have received a 48-hour Shut Off Notice or if a senior citizen or disabled person have received a 15-day Shut Off Notice.
The program also assists customers in obtaining propane and firewood for heating and repair or replacement of heating sources. To be eligible, the individual must be a Stanislaus County resident and income must be at or below 130 percent of the poverty level per the Federal Register, in addition to having received a 48- hour Shut Off Notice or 15-day Shut Off Notice prior to application.
The Salvation Army
Energy Assistance Program The Salvation Army Energy Assistance Program provides financial assistance to qualified customers in TID’s service territory. Qualified customers can receive up to $300 towards their TID bills. Selection and assistance granted is at the discretion of The Salvation Army.
Source: TID, 2023
5.3 Housing Element Programs Related to Energy Efficiency As part of this Housing Element Update, the City of Ceres will continue to implement:
Program 4.1 – Weatherization and Energy Conservation for Existing Dwelling Units, which commits the City to continue to post and distribute information on currently available weatherization and energy conservation programs in conjunction with housing rehabilitation. Program 4.2 – Energy Conservation for New Construction, which commits the City to continuing the enforcement of Title 24 and California Green Building.
1 https://www.tid.org/customer-service/payment-assistance-programs/tid-cares-rate-assistance-program/
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Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report
A
APPENDIX
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Table of Contents
APPENDIX A CITY OF CERES HOUSING NEEDS & FAIR HOUSING REPORT ............... A-1 A.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... A-1 A.2 Population, Employment, and Household Characteristics ............................................. A-5 A.3 Integration and Segregation ............................................................................................... A-23 A.4 Disproportionate Housing Needs ..................................................................................... A-50 A.5 Special Needs Groups ......................................................................................................... A-59 A.6 Access to Opportunity ........................................................................................................ A-82 A.7 Housing Stock Characteristics ........................................................................................... A-92 A.8 Fair Housing Enforcement and Outreach Capacity ..................................................... A-109 A.9 Fair Housing Recommendations ..................................................................................... A-114 A.10 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... A-117 Tables
Table A-1 Population Growth by Jurisdiction, 2010-2019 ....................................................A-6 Table A-2 Population Age Distribution by Jurisdiction, 2019 ..............................................A-8 Table A-3 Population by Race by Jurisdiction, 2019 ..............................................................A-9 Table A-4 Employment Growth Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020-2050 ............................. A-10 Table A-5 Employment by Sector, Ceres, 2010 and 2019 .................................................. A-12 Table A-6 Unemployment Rate, Ceres, 2019 ........................................................................ A-14 Table A-7 Regional Housing Needs Allocation .................................................................... A-15 Table A-8 Occupations by Mean Salary, Stanislaus County, 2019 ..................................... A-16 Table A-9 Housing Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020-2050 ..................................................... A-17 Table A-10 Maximum Household Income by Household Size, Ceres, 2022 ..................... A-20 Table A-11 Households by Income Category, Ceres, 2015-2019 ........................................ A-21 Table A-12 Population by Racial Group, City of Ceres and Stanislaus County, 2010-2019 ................................................................................................. A-25
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Table A-13 Employment Status by Disability Status, Stanislaus County, 2015-2019 ....... A-32 Table A-14 Tenure by Household Type and Presence of Children, Stanislaus County, 2019 ........................................................................................................... A-36 Table A-15 Overview of Special Needs Groups ..................................................................... A-59 Table A-16 Extremely Low-Income Households, Ceres, 2015-2019 .................................. A-60 Table A-17 Disability Status by Age, Ceres, 2019 ................................................................... A-68 Table A-18 Population with Developmental Disabilities by Age, Ceres, 2021 .................. A-69 Table A-19 Population with Developmental Disabilities by Residence, Ceres, 2021 ....... A-69 Table A-20 Homeless Population, 2018-2023 ......................................................................... A-79 Table A-21 Homelessness by Household Type and Shelter Status, Stanislaus County, 2022 ........................................................................................................... A-80 Table A-22 Housing Unit Growth Trends by Jurisdiction, 2010-2019 ............................... A-93 Table A-23 Housing Units by Type by Jurisdiction, 2019 ..................................................... A-93 Table A-24 Housing Units by Type and Tenure, Ceres, 2019 .............................................. A-95 Table A-25 Household Tenure by Income Level, Ceres, 2015-2019................................... A-96 Table A-26 Household Size by Tenure by Jurisdiction, 2019 ............................................... A-96 Table A-27 Vacant Housing Units by Type, Ceres, 2019 ...................................................... A-98 Table A-28 Housing Permits by Income Group, Ceres, 2015-2020 .................................... A-98 Table A-29 Assisted Units At-Risk of Conversion ................................................................. A-99 Table A-30 Median Home Value by Jurisdiction, 2019-2022 ............................................. A-104 Table A-31 Average Apartment Rents by Number of Bedrooms, Ceres, 2024 ............... A-105 Table A-32 Housing Affordability, Ceres, 2024 .................................................................... A-106 Table A-33 Fair Housing Issues & Contributing Factors .................................................... A-115 Figures
Figure A-1 Major Public and Legal Actions that Influence Fair Access to Housing ......... A-4 Figure A-2 Population Growth, Ceres, 2010-2019 .................................................................. A-6 Figure A-3 Population Distribution by Age, Ceres, 2010-2019 ............................................. A-7 Figure A-4 Population by Race in Ceres Compared to Stanislaus County, 2019 ................ A-8
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Figure A-5 Population by Race, Ceres, 2010-2019 ................................................................ A-10 Figure A-6 Worker Earnings by Place of Residence & Place of Work, Ceres, 2019 ........ A-13 Figure A-7 Jobs by Industry by Jurisdiction, 2019 ................................................................. A-14 Figure A-8 Household by Type by Jurisdiction, 2019 ........................................................... A-18 Figure A-9 Changes in Household Types, Ceres, 2010-2019 ............................................... A-18 Figure A-10 Households by Household Size by Jurisdiction, 2019 ...................................... A-19 Figure A-11 Housing Tenure by Jurisdiction, 2019 ................................................................. A-19 Figure A-12 Households by Income Level by Jurisdiction, 2015-2019 ................................ A-21 Figure A-13 Median Household Income by Jurisdiction, 2019 ............................................. A-22 Figure A-14 Income by Category, Ceres, 2019 ......................................................................... A-22 Figure A-15 Percent Non-White Population, Stanislaus County, 2018 ................................ A-26 Figure A-16 Percent Non-White Population, Ceres, 2018 ..................................................... A-27 Figure A-17 Predominant Population, Stanislaus County ...................................................... A-28 Figure A-18 Predominant Population, Ceres, 2018 ................................................................. A-29 Figure A-19 Diversity Index, Ceres, 2018 ................................................................................. A-30 Figure A-20 Percentage of Population with One or More Disabilities, Stanislaus County, 2019 ........................................................................................................... A-33 Figure A-21 Population with One or More Disabilities, Ceres, 2019 ................................... A-34 Figure A-22 Female-Headed Households with Children, No Spouse/Partner, Stanislaus County, 2019 ......................................................................................... A-37 Figure A-23 Adults in Households Living Alone, Stanislaus County, 2019 ........................ A-38 Figure A-24 Female-Headed Households with Children, No Spouse/Partner, Ceres, 2019 .............................................................................................................. A-40 Figure A-25 Adults in Households Living Alone, Ceres, 2019 .............................................. A-41 Figure A-26 Median Household Income, Stanislaus County, 2019 ...................................... A-42 Figure A-27 Low and Moderate-Income Population, Stanislaus County 2019 ................... A-43 Figure A-28 Median Household Income, Ceres, 2019 ............................................................ A-45 Figure A-29 Low and Moderate-Income Population, Ceres, 2019 ....................................... A-46 Figure A-30 R/ECAP by Census Tract, Ceres, 2023 .............................................................. A-48
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Figure A-31 RCAA by Census Tract, Ceres, 2015-2019 ......................................................... A-49 Figure A-32 Housing Problems by Tenure, Ceres, 2015-2019 .............................................. A-51 Figure A-33 Severe Housing Problems by Tenure, Ceres, 2015-2019 .................................. A-51 Figure A-34 Overcrowding by Severity by Jurisdiction, 2019 ................................................ A-52 Figure A-35 Overcrowding by Tenure and Severity, Ceres, 2019 ......................................... A-53 Figure A-36 Overcrowded Households, Ceres......................................................................... A-54 Figure A-37 Cost Burden Severity by Jurisdiction, 2015-2019 .............................................. A-55 Figure A-38 Cost Burden by Tenure, Ceres, 2015-2019 ......................................................... A-56 Figure A-39 Cost Burden by Home Owners, Ceres, 2015-2019 ........................................... A-57 Figure A-40 Cost Burden by Renter Households, Ceres, 2015-2019 .................................... A-58 Figure A-41 Population Below Poverty Level by Jurisdiction, 2019 ..................................... A-61 Figure A-42 Percent Living Below the Poverty Line by Race and Ethnicity, Ceres, 2019 .............................................................................................................. A-62 Figure A-43 Senior Population by Jurisdiction, 2019 .............................................................. A-64 Figure A-44 Senior Housing by Tenure, Ceres, 2019 .............................................................. A-64 Figure A-45 Senior Households by Income, Ceres, 2019 ....................................................... A-65 Figure A-46 Population by Disability Status by Jurisdiction, 2019 ........................................ A-67 Figure A-47 Trends in Persons with Disabilities, Ceres, 2012-2019 ..................................... A-67 Figure A-48 Household Size by Tenure, Ceres, 2019 .............................................................. A-71 Figure A-49 Single-Parent Households by Jurisdiction, 2019 ................................................ A-72 Figure A-50 Trends in Single-Parent Households, Ceres, 2010-2019 ................................... A-73 Figure A-51 Female-Headed Family Households by Poverty Status, Ceres, 2019 .............. A-73 Figure A-52 Hired Farm Labor by County, Stanislaus County, 2002-2017 ......................... A-75 Figure A-53 Population with Limited English Proficiency, 2019 .......................................... A-82 Figure A-54 TCAC Opportunity Composite Score, Ceres, 2022 .......................................... A-84 Figure A-55 TCAC Opportunity Economic Score, Ceres, 2022 ........................................... A-85 Figure A-56 TCAC Opportunity Education Score, Ceres, 2022 ........................................... A-87 Figure A-57 TCAC Opportunity Environmental Score, Ceres, 2022 ................................... A-89
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Figure A-58 Social Vulnerability Index, Ceres, 2018 ............................................................... A-90 Figure A-59 Housing by Type, Ceres, 2010, 2015, 2019 ......................................................... A-94 Figure A-60 Housing Tenure, Ceres, 2010-2021 ...................................................................... A-95 Figure A-61 Household Tenure by Race, Ceres, 2019 ............................................................ A-97 Figure A-62 Vacancy Rates by Jurisdiction, 2019 .................................................................... A-97 Figure A-63 Displacement Risk, Ceres, 2022 ......................................................................... A-102 Figure A-64 Housing Stock Age, Ceres, 2019 ........................................................................ A-103 Figure A-65 Public Housing Buildings by Census Tract, Ceres ........................................... A-107 Figure A-66 Housing Choice Vouchers by Census Tract, Ceres ......................................... A-108
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-1 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Appendix A
City of Ceres Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report
A.1 Introduction
The following report provides both the City of Ceres Housing Needs Assessment and Fair Housing Assessment. This analysis primarily utilizes U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimate data and California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) data. It is important to note, there are discrepancies between U.S. Census Bureau ACS data and HCD data, specifically when analyzing Ceres at a regional scale.
Housing Needs Assessment
The Housing Needs Assessment for the City of Ceres provides an in-depth analysis of the City’s housing and population conditions including population, employment, economics, household and housing stock characteristics. This assessment develops context for the City’s goals, programs, and policies for the 6th Cycle Housing Element.
Fair Housing Assessment
In 2018, Governor Brown signed Assembly Bill (AB 686) requiring all public agencies in the state to affirmatively further fair housing (AFFH). The law went into effect on January 1, 2019. 1 AB 686 also made changes to Housing Element Law to incorporate AFFH requirements as part of the housing element and general plan to include an analysis of fair housing outreach and capacity, integration and segregation, access to opportunity, disparate housing needs, and current fair housing practices.
1 Public agencies receiving funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) are also required to demonstrate their commitment to AFFH. The federal obligation stems from the fair housing component of the federal Civil Rights Act mandating federal fund recipients to take “meaningful actions” to address segregation and related barriers to fair housing choice.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-2 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing
“Affirmatively furthering fair housing” means taking meaningful actions, in addition to combating discrimination, that overcome patterns of segregation and foster inclusive communities free from barriers that restrict access to opportunity based on protected characteristics. Specifically, affirmatively furthering fair housing means taking meaningful actions that, taken together, address significant disparities in housing needs and in access to opportunity, replacing segregated living patterns with truly integrated and balanced living patterns, transforming racially and ethnically concentrated areas of poverty into areas of opportunity, and fostering and maintaining compliance with civil rights and fair housing laws.
The duty to affirmatively further fair housing extends to all of a public agency’s activities and programs relating to housing and community development. (Gov. Code, § 8899.50, subd. (a)(1).)”
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development Guidance, 2021, page 14.
History of Segregation in the Region
The United States’ oldest cities have a history of
mandating segregated living patterns—and cities in the
San Joaquin Valley region are no exception. Stanislaus
County and the San Joaquin Valley region have a
troubled history of segregation and racism from the
time of the European settlers to the present. Some of
the segregation in the San Joaquin Valley area can be
attributed to historically discriminatory practices, such as: restrictive covenants, redlining and discriminatory mortgage approvals—as well as “structural inequities”
in society, and “self-segregation” (i.e., preferences to live near similar people).
Jeff Benziger’s 2010 book, Ceres, details the history of Ceres and adjacent cities, and how the California Gold
Rush and the migration of farming families to the
region led to a shift in demographics and the
development of an agrarian-based local economy.
During the Great Depression, Ceres became home to
many migrant workers that were employed in Modesto or Turlock.
This history of segregation in
the region is important not
only to understand how
residential settlement
patterns came about—but,
more importantly, to explain
differences in housing
opportunity among residents
today. In sum, not all
residents had the ability to
build housing wealth or
achieve economic
opportunity. This historically
unequal playing field in part
determines why residents
have different housing needs
today.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-3 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Emily Tumpson Molina, in the article Race, Municipal Underbounding, and Coalitional Politics in Modesto, California, and Moore County, North Carolina, describes “municipal underbounding” as the process by which municipalities draw their boundaries to exclude particular communities from municipal services, typically based on their racial or economic composition” and uses this terminology to detail the ways in which these physical and social boundaries, and “…[p]revailing patterns of segregation have enabled the city of Modesto and Stanislaus County to deny basic services like sidewalks, wastewater disposal, trash collection, and police protection to the predominantly Latino communities…”.
2 In addition to historical discriminatory practices that embedded segregation into living patterns throughout the Stanislaus County and San Joaquin Valley, it is also necessary to recognize the historical impacts of colonization and genocide on Indigenous populations and how the effects of those atrocities are still being felt today. In Stanislaus County and San Joaquin Valley, many of the indigenous populations were displaced due to the migration of Spanish missionaries, European settlers, goldminers, and trappers into the region. Historically, the region had been home to indigenous populations for more than 10,000 years. The original inhabitants of present-day Stanislaus County were the Yokut who have lived in communities related by language, blood, and culture.
3 However, “[d]ue to the devastating policies and practices of a succession of explorers, missionaries, settlers, and various levels of government over the centuries since European expansion, these tribes have lost the vast majority of their population as well as their land.”4 The lasting influence of these policies and practices have contributed directly to the disparate housing and economic outcomes collectively experienced by Native populations today.5
According to the Modesto Bee, the primary news outlet for the City of Modesto, an increasing number of racist incidents and segregation has led to an investigation of restrictive covenants and other discriminatory housing policies in Stanislaus County. 6 As a means of addressing these
issues within the City of Ceres, enacting policies and programs that promote AFFH and highlight the community’s assets could attract a diverse group of individuals to the area, and undo some of the segregation patterns in the area, as well.
The timeline of major Federal Acts and court decisions related to fair housing choice and zoning and land use appear in Figure A-1 on the following page.
2Molina, E. T. (2014). Race, Municipal Underbounding, and Coalitional politics in Modesto, California, and Moore County, North Carolina. Kalfou: A Journal of Comparative and Relational Ethnic Studies, 180 –187. 3 https://www.valleyhistory.org/native-americans
4 https://www.smcoe.org/for-communities/indigenous-people-of-san-mateo-county.html 5 https://www.americanprogress.org/article/systemic-inequality-displacement-exclusion-segregation/ 6 https://www.modbee.com/news/local/article273097685.html
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-4 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-1 Major Public and Legal Actions that Influence Fair Access to Housing SOURCE: Root Policy Research
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-5 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 As shown in the timeline, exclusive zoning practices were common in the early 1900s. Courts struck down only the most discriminatory and allowed those that would be considered today to have a “disparate impact” on classes protected by the Fair Housing Act. For example, the 1926 case Village of Euclid v. Amber Realty Co. (272 U.S. 365) supported the segregation of residential, business, and industrial uses, justifying separation by characterizing apartment buildings as “mere parasite(s)” with the potential to “utterly destroy” the character and desirability of neighborhoods. At that time, multifamily apartments were the only housing options for people of color, including immigrants.
The Federal Fair Housing Act was not enacted until nearly 60 years after the first racial zoning ordinances appeared in U.S. cities. This coincided with a shift away from federal control over low- income housing toward locally-tailored approaches (block grants) and market-oriented choice (Section 8 subsidies)—the latter of which is only effective when adequate affordable rental units are available.
Overview of Ceres
Over the past 20 years, the City of Ceres has experienced growth in both population and jobs, which means more housing of various types and sizes is needed to ensure that residents across all income levels, ages, and abilities have a place to call home. While the number of people drawn to the City has steadily increased, housing production has stalled, contributing to the housing shortage that communities are experiencing today. In many cities, this has resulted in residents being priced out, increased traffic congestion caused by longer commutes, and fewer people across incomes being able to purchase homes or meet surging rents. Additionally, with increasing population and economic pressures comes the space for inequitable housing practices. The following Housing Needs and Fair Housing Assessment develops context for the goals, programs, and policies that Ceres will implement to address inequities in the 6
th Cycle Housing Element.
A.2 Population, Employment, and Household Characteristics Population characteristics impact current and future housing needs in a community. A city’s population growth, age composition and race and ethnicity composition determine the type and extent of housing needed. The following section provides analysis of population characteristics and local trends that affect housing demand in Ceres.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-6 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Population Growth
Table A-1 shows population growth in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities between 2010-2019. In Ceres, the population increased approximately 9 percent from 2010 to 2019. Between this period, the City of Ceres’ population steadily increased as did the County and nearby cities of Oakdale and Turlock. Ceres’ population in 2019 was 48,214, larger than Oakdale but smaller than Turlock and the County.
Table A-1 Population Growth by Jurisdiction, 2010-2019
Jurisdiction Population
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Stanislaus
County
509,682 512,469 515,115 518,321 522,794 527,367 530,561 535,684 539,301 543,194 Ceres 44,153 44,731 45,086 46,022 46,570 46,952 47,231 47,650 47,975 48,214 Oakdale 20,076 20,364 20,663 20,943 21,260 21,543 21,796 22,256 22,599 22,936 Turlock 67,376 67,953 68,576 69,185 69,875 70,596 71,166 71,906 72,335 72,904 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2019 Figure A-2 illustrates population growth in Ceres between 2010-2019. Ceres’ population steadily increased during this time period, experiencing a total increase of 9 percent from 2010 to 2019.
Figure A-2 Population Growth, Ceres, 2010-2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2019 42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population
Year
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-7 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Age Characteristics
A community’s housing needs are partly determined by preferences of age groups and household types (age, family/non-family, presence of children, female-headed, etc.). When seeking housing, households may prioritize factors such as size, accessibility, and price. For instance, younger and middle-aged households may seek homes that can accommodate a growing household size, whereas older adults may seek to downsize to an apartment with assistive care services or a smaller more affordable single-family home. Disabled persons may seek homes that are accessible and include universal design or visitability features. Overall, the life stages of a population determine the housing stock that is needed in a community.
In 2010, Ceres’ predominant age group was individuals between 15 and 24 years of age (17 percent).
Figure A-3 shows that between 2010 and 2019, the general age of the population has been slowly increasing; however, the most populous age groups in the City appear to be individuals between 5 and 14 years of age. Senior populations have remained less than 2 percent in the City since 2010. As of 2019, the City’s median age was 30. Overall, Ceres’ aging trend suggests a demand for housing geared toward younger to middle-aged persons and families.
Figure A-3 Population Distribution by Age, Ceres, 2010-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2010, 2015, 2019 Table A-2 shows that Ceres’ most populous age group in 2019 was individuals 5 to 14 years of age (18 percent). Compared to the County and nearby comparable cities, Ceres has the largest 5-14, 15- 24, and 25-34 age groups. In contrast, Ceres and Oakdale both have the smallest 65 and older age groups (less than 6 percent, respectively).
Age 0-4 Age 5-14 Age 15-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+ 2010 9% 16% 17% 15% 14% 14% 8% 4% 3% 1%
2015 8% 17% 16% 16% 13% 12% 10% 5% 3% 1%
2019 8% 18% 16% 16% 13% 12% 9% 6% 3% 1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-8 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-2 Population Age Distribution by Jurisdiction, 2019 Jurisdiction Population Age
0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Stanislaus County 7% 15% 14% 15% 13% 12% 11% 8% 4% 2%
Ceres 8% 18% 16% 16% 13% 12% 9% 6% 3% 1%
Oakdale 8% 16% 14% 12% 16% 12% 11% 6% 4% 1%
Turlock 7% 15% 15% 15% 13% 13% 10% 8% 4% 2%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Race and Ethnicity Characteristics
Demographic characteristics such as the racial and ethnic composition of a city are necessary to inform the housing needs of a community inclusive of cultural norms and preferences. Figure A-4 illustrates the racial and ethnic composition of Ceres compared to the County.
Figure A-4 Population by Race in Ceres Compared to Stanislaus County, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
When comparing the City and the County, Hispanic or Latino and non-Hispanic White populations are the most represented. Hispanic or Latino individuals comprise the majority of both the County (46 percent) and Ceres’ population (61 percent). Those identifying as American Indian or Alaska Native represent the smallest population group within the City (1 percent) followed by Some Other Race/Two or More Races (3 percent). Despite having a smaller population than the County, Ceres’ population is more diverse.
American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
Asian
Black or
African
American,
Non-
Hispanic
White,
Non-
Hispanic
Some other
race/Two
or more
races
Hispanic or
Latino
Native
Hawaiian
and Other
Pacific
Islander
Ceres 0.7% 6.7% 3.7% 24.4% 2.6% 61.4% 0.5%
Stanislaus County 0.5% 5.4% 2.8% 41.9% 2.6% 46.3% 0.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-9 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-3 provides a comparison of racial and ethnic composition by jurisdiction. In 2019, the County (42 percent) and the nearby comparable cities of Turlock (50 percent) and Oakdale (61 percent) had the largest non-Hispanic White populations compared to Ceres (24 percent). Ceres had the largest Hispanic or Latino (61 percent), Asian (7 percent), and Black or African American (4 percent) populations compared to surrounding cities and the County.
Table A-3 Population by Race by Jurisdiction, 2019
Jurisdiction
American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
Asian,
alone
Black or
African
American,
Non-
Hispanic
White,
Non-
Hispanic
Some
Other
Race
Hispanic
or
Latino
Native
Hawaiian
and Other
Pacific
Islander
Stanislaus County 0% 5% 3% 42% 3% 46% 1%
Ceres 1% 7% 4% 24% 3% 61% 0%
Oakdale 1% 2% 0% 61% 3% 33% 0%
Turlock 1% 6% 2% 50% 3% 37% 0%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
When analyzing race and ethnicity in a city, it’s important to understand how demographics have changed over time. Figure A-5 illustrates changes in population by race between 2010-2019 in Ceres.
During this time frame, Ceres’ population composition experienced fluctuations in nearly all populations. In 2015, all populations experienced a decrease in size with the exception of Hispanic or Latino (8 percent increase) and Some Other Race/Two or More Races (1 percent increase). In 2019, Ceres saw growth in all populations except non-Hispanic White (4 percent decline) and Some Other Race/Two or More Races (0.1 percent decline).
Diversity Index
The Diversity Index measures the degree to which the five major ethnic populations (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Asian and Pacific Islander, Hispanic, and Two or more races) are evenly distributed across a geographic area. The index ranges from 0 to 1 – where 0 is low diversity, meaning only one group is present, and 1 is high diversity, meaning an equal proportion of all five groups is present.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-10 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-5 Population by Race, Ceres, 2010-2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2010, 2015, 2019 Employment Characteristics
Employment characteristics can significantly impact the housing needs and trends of a community from income and wage scale to job location and industry. Employment and income are determinates of a population’s ability to purchase housing including the type of housing and size, both of which can induce negative effects such as overpayment and overcrowding. Table A-4 summarizes projected employment growth for Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities from 2015-2045.
Table A-4 Employment Growth Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020-2050 Jurisdiction Population Change
2015 - 2045
2020 2025* 2030 2035* 2040* 2045* 2050* Percent
Stanislaus County 238,362 267,154 271,450 276,735 284,324 292,786 302,628 26% Ceres 15,384 18,325 18,804 19,336 20,067 20,876 21,847 42% Oakdale 8,256 8,912 8,937 8,968 9,005 9,135 9,276 12%
Turlock 33,001 38,430 38,828 39,387 40,259 41,243 42,395 28% SOURCE: Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast, 2021 NOTE: *Projected growth values
American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
Asian
Black or
African
American,
Non-
Hispanic
White,
Non-
Hispanic
Some
other
race/Two
or more
races
Hispanic
or Latino
Native
Hawaiian
and Other
Pacific
Islander
2010 0.7% 8.7% 2.7% 33.1% 1.8% 52.5% 0.4%
2015 0.6% 5.5% 1.7% 28.5% 2.7% 60.7% 0.4%
2019 0.7% 6.7% 3.7% 24.4% 2.6% 61.4% 0.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-11 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 According to the Stanislaus County 2021 Demographic and Employment Forecast, Ceres is projected to experience an employment growth of 42 percent between 2020-2050. This projected employment growth is 16 percent higher than the County (26 percent) and 14 percent higher than Turlock (28 percent). This projected increase in job growth presents an opportunity for cities to construct additional housing options for the existing and future workforce.
Table A-5 shows 2010 and 2019 employment data for Ceres by sector. Key findings in employment data include the following:
In both 2010 and 2019, education services, healthcare, and social assistance industries were the largest employers in Ceres (18 percent) followed by manufacturing (16 percent and 15 percent, respectively);
Professional, scientific management, and administrative services industries experienced the greatest increase between 2010 and 2019 (60 percent), followed by transportation and warehousing, and utilities (60 percent);
Five sectors experienced drastic declines in employment between 2010 and 2019 including information (35 percent), finance and insurance, real estate, and rental leasing (32 percent), public administration (23 percent), wholesale trade (21 percent), and retail trade (17 percent); Manufacturing (1 percent) and arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services (1 percent) industries experienced the least amount of growth; and Overall, there was a 1 percent increase in employment for Ceres residents between 2010 and 2019.
Balance of Jobs to Workers
A city houses employed residents who either work in the community where they live or work elsewhere in the region. Conversely, a city may have job sites that employ residents from the same city but more often employ workers commuting from outside of it. Smaller cities will typically have more employed residents than jobs and export workers, while larger cities tend to have a surplus of jobs and import workers. To some extent, the regional transportation system is set up for this flow of workers to the region’s core job centers. At the same time, as the housing affordability crisis has illustrated, local imbalances may be severe, where local jobs and worker populations are out of sync at a sub-regional scale.
One measure of local imbalance is the relationship between workers and jobs. A city with a surplus of workers “exports” workers to other parts of the region, while a city with a surplus of jobs must conversely “import” them.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-12 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-5 Employment by Sector, Ceres, 2010 and 2019
Industry Sector
2010 2019 Percent
Change
2010-2019
People
Employed
Percent of City
Employment
People
Employed
Percent of City
Employed
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and
hunting, and mining 721 4% 749 4% 4%
Construction 1,739 10% 1,801 10% 4%
Manufacturing 2,907 16% 2,924 15% 1%
Wholesale Trade 688 4% 543 3% -21%
Retail Trade 3,011 16% 2,503 13% -17%
Transportation and warehousing,
and utilities 1,100 6% 1,761 9% 60%
Information 278 2% 182 1% -35%
Finance and insurance, real
estate, and rental leasing 696 4% 472 3% -32%
Professional, scientific,
management, and administrative
services
973 5% 1,641 9% 69%
Education services, healthcare,
and social assistance 3,232 18% 3,503 18% 8%
Arts, entertainment, recreation,
accommodation, and food services 2,467 13% 2,496 13% 1% Public Administration 570 3% 439 2% -23%
Total Employment 18,382 100% 19,014 100% 3%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2010, 2019 A community may offer employment for relatively low-income workers but have relatively few housing options for those workers. Conversely, it may house residents who are low-wage workers but offer few employment opportunities for them. Such relationships may cast extra light on potentially pent-up demand for housing in particular price categories. A relative surplus of jobs relative to residents in a given wage category suggests the need to import those workers, while conversely, surpluses of workers mean the community will export those workers to other jurisdictions. Such flows are not inherently negative, though over time, sub-regional imbalances may appear.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-13 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-6 illustrates worker earnings in relation to worker place of residence and place of work in Ceres. The City has more workers than jobs at all income levels. Specifically, the City experiences the largest imbalances for low- and moderate-wage jobs to residents, respectively (where low-wage refers to jobs paying less than $25,000 and moderate-wage refers to jobs paying less than $$49,999).
According to Figure A-6, in 2019, Ceres had more workers than jobs for all income levels, meaning Ceres is a net-exporter of workers. This reflects a need for more job opportunities within the City to balance out the number of jobs to workers. However, this could be the result of a lack of affordable housing in cities within the Bay Area that have a greater supply of jobs than affordable housing options.
Figure A-6 Worker Earnings by Place of Residence & Place of Work, Ceres, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Figure A-7 illustrates employment data by industry in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. The largest industry of employment for Ceres (18 percent), the County (21 percent), and the nearby cities of Oakdale (21 percent) and Turlock (27 percent) is Health and Educational Services. 2,379
4,059
6,671
3,062
2,198
1,618
3,341
3,867
2,432
1,806
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Less than $9,999 $10,000 to
$24,999
$25,000 to
$49,999
$50,000 to
$74,999
$75,000 or more
Place of Residence
Place of Work
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-14 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-7 Jobs by Industry by Jurisdiction, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Unemployment rates are essential to understanding the affordability needs of a community when determining housing options. Table A-6 provides a breakdown of unemployment rates for Ceres, the County, and nearby cities. In 2019, Ceres had a 12 percent unemployment rate, mirroring Oakdale. This indicates an approximate 3 percent higher unemployment rate than the County and 5 percent higher than the City of Turlock.
Table A-6 Unemployment Rate, Ceres, 2019
Jurisdictions Unemployment Rate
Stanislaus County 9%
Ceres 12%
Oakdale 12%
Turlock 7%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
6% 4% 6% 5%
13% 13% 14% 11%
8% 9% 8%
5%
3% 2% 4%
4%
4% 2%
6%
5%
21%
18%
21%
27%
1%
1%
1% 2%
12%
15%
13% 13%
4% 3%
3%
4%
8% 9%
9%
7%
13% 13%
7% 13%
7% 9% 7% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
Transportation & Utilities
Retail Trade
Professional & Managerial
Services
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Health & Educational Services
Government
Financial & Leasing
Construction
Arts, Recreation & Other
Services
Agriculture & Natural Resources
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-15 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 The Stanislaus Council of Governments (STANCOG) approved Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) Methodology is broken down into four income levels:
Very Low Income (50 percent or less of the County’s median income); Low Income (50-80 percent of the County’s median income); Moderate Income (80-120 percent of the County’s median income); and Above moderate Income (120 and above the County’s median income).
The City of Cere’s RHNA allocation is presented below in Table A-7.
Table A-7 Regional Housing Needs Allocation
Income Group Percentage of AMI Share
Extremely Low-Income7 <30 353
Very Low-Income <50 353
Low-Income 50-80 489
Moderate-Income 80-120 661
Above Moderate-Income 120+ 1,505
Total 3,361
SOURCE: City of Ceres
In Stanislaus County, the median household income in 2019 was an estimated $60,704 compared to Ceres at $58,667. According to Table A-8, the occupations that fall below 50 percent of the median income are Food Preparation and Serving-Related Occupations; Personal Care and Service Occupations; and Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations. Many occupations in Stanislaus County have an average income that is low (50-80 percent AMI) or very low (<50 percent AMI). If applied to Ceres, it should be anticipated that affordable housing is needed to accommodate potential low- and very low-income households.
7 Extremely low-income RHNA is found as a subset within the very low-income category for all other tables in this document.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-16 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-8 Occupations by Mean Salary, Stanislaus County, 2019 Occupation Salary
Management Occupations $104,863
Business and Financial Operations Occupations $68,981
Computer and Mathematical Occupations $72,928
Architecture and Engineering Occupations $82,838
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations $74,841
Community and Social Services Occupations $50,830
Legal Occupations $78,168
Education, Training, and Library Occupations $61,309
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations $45,946 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations $94,039 Healthcare Support Occupations $37,455
Protective Service Occupations $56,032
Food Preparation and Serving-Related Occupations $27,165 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations $35,060 Personal Care and Service Occupations $27,670
Sales and Related Occupations $37,342
Office and Administrative Support Occupations $39,537
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations $27,602
Construction and Extraction Occupations $52,955
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations $52,124 Production Occupations $41,097
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations $39,135
SOURCE: California Employment Development Division, Occupational Wage data, 2019 Household Characteristics
Characteristics of a household include household type and size, income, affordability, and special needs groups. According to HCD, a household is defined as “All persons who occupy a housing unit. The occupants may be a single family, one person living alone, two or more families living together, or any groups of related or unrelated persons who share living arrangements.” Large families, senior households, single parent households, female-headed households, farmworkers, or extremely low- and low-income households may be classified as Special Needs groups. Special Needs groups are identified due to the unique nature of household characteristics and potential housing challenges faced. The following section examines household characteristics trends in Ceres and the region.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-17 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-9 provides an overview of the projected housing units needed in Stanislaus County, Ceres, and nearby cities, Oakdale and Turlock.8 Ceres is forecast to have a household growth of approximately 32 percent by 2050. This reflects 4 percentage points of more growth than the County and 3 points less than the City of Turlock.
Table A-9 Housing Forecast by Jurisdiction, 2020-2050
Jurisdiction 2020 2025* 2030* 2035* 2040* 2045* 2050*
Percent
Change
from 2020-
2050
Stanislaus County 179,276 190,782 200,258 208,137 215,916 222,845 230,072 28% Ceres 13,318 14,278 15,063 15,718 16,366 16,946 17,552 32% Oakdale 7,823 8,413 8,897 9,300 9,697 10,053 10,424 33% Turlock 25,788 27,833 29,464 30,829 32,204 33,460 34,770 35% SOURCE: Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast, 2021 NOTE: *Projected growth values
Household Type and Size
Figure A-8 illustrates household characteristics by type in 2019 for Ceres, the County, and nearby cities, Oakdale and Turlock. In Ceres, the largest household type was married-couple family households (56 percent) followed by female-headed households (19 percent). Similarly, the largest household type in the County and nearby comparable cities was also married-couple family households, followed by single-person households. Ceres has the highest percentage of female- headed (19 percent) and male-headed households (10 percent) compared to the County and nearby comparable cities. Additionally, Ceres (13 percent) has the lowest percentage of single-person households compared to the County (21 percent), Oakdale (24 percent), and Turlock (23 percent).
8 Source: Stanislaus County Demographic and Employment Forecast, 2021
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-18 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-8 Household by Type by Jurisdiction, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Figure A-9 illustrates household changes between 2010-2019 in Ceres. Over the last decade, married-couple family households have remained the largest household type in the City followed by female-headed households. During this period, single-person households experienced the greatest decline (3 percentage points) and male-headed households experienced the greatest increase (3 percentage points). These changes and trends in household type over time indicate a need for housing options that appeal to larger sized households (keeping affordability in mind).
Figure A-9 Changes in Household Types, Ceres, 2010-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2010-2019 NOTE: Non-family households include unrelated persons living in one housing unit.
14.8% 18.5% 15.2% 15.3%
7.6%
9.7%
7.1% 7.3%
51.8%
55.7%
48.5% 48.0%
5.4%
3.0%
5.0% 6.2%
20.5% 13.0%
24.2% 23.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
Single-person Households
Other Non-Family Households
Married-couple Family Households
Male-headed Households
Female-Headed Households
18.1% 18.0% 18.5% 19.3% 19.3% 18.4% 20.1% 19.7% 19.3% 18.5%
7.2% 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.8% 9.7%
55.0% 54.3% 53.4% 52.5% 52.6% 53.4% 53.4% 54.3% 55.8% 55.7%
3.5% 3.8% 4.2% 4.7% 4.6% 5.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0%
16.1% 16.8% 16.6% 15.8% 14.9% 14.5% 13.4% 13.2% 13.1% 13.0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Single-person Households
Other Non-Family Households
Married-couple Family Households
Male-headed Households
Female-Headed Households
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-19 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-10 illustrates households by household size for Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. Ceres’ largest household type according to size is 3 to 4-person households (39 percent) followed by 5 or more-person households (25 percent). This is consistent with findings in Figure A-9, with married-couple family households remaining the largest household type since 2010. This reflects a demand for affordable housing units appealing to larger family households.
Figure A-10 Households by Household Size by Jurisdiction, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Figure A-11 illustrates housing by tenure in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. Thirty- nine (39) percent of the households in Ceres are renters. This reflects 3 percentage points lower renter population than the County (42 percent) and 7 percentage points lower than Turlock (46 percent).
Figure A-11 Housing Tenure by Jurisdiction, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Household Income
Affordability is a key component in determining the housing needs of a community. Household income determines the ability of a household to purchase or rent a housing unit. However,
21.7% 13.4% 25.5% 24.8%
25.9%
22.7%
23.6% 27.3%
34.2%
38.9%
36.2% 34.0%
18.2% 25.1% 14.8% 13.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
5-Person or More
Household
3-4-Person Household
2-Person Household
1-Person Household
58% 61% 60% 54%
42% 39% 40% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
Renter Occupied
Owner Occupied
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-20 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 fluctuating household incomes may result in the need to spend disproportionate amounts of income on housing costs, referred to as overpayment or cost burden. As a result, this may also lead to overcrowding and/or substandard living conditions.
Income levels are defined by guidelines adopted annually by HCD to determine housing affordability, housing need, and eligibility for housing assistance. According to HCD’s 2024 State Income Limits, the area median income (AMI) for a family of four in Stanislaus County in 2022 was $92,600.
The following are income categories based on area median income (AMI) according to HCD:
Extremely low-income9: households earning 0-30 percent of AMI ($0-$27,780); Very low-income: households earning 30-50 percent of AMI ($27,781-$46,300); Low-income: households earning 50-80 percent of AMI ($46,301-$74,080); Moderate-income: households earning 80-100 percent of AMI ($74,081-$92,600); and Above-moderate income: households earning 100-120 percent of AMI ($92,601 or more).
In accordance with HCD 2024 State Income Limits data, Table A-10 shows the maximum annual household income level for each income group by household size for Stanislaus County.
Table A-10 Maximum Household Income by Household Size, Ceres, 2022 Income
Category
Household Size
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Extremely
Low-
Income
$19,150 $21,900 $25,820 $31,200 $36,580 $41,960 $47,340 $52,720 Very Low-
Income $31,900 $36,450 $41,000 $45,550 $49,200 $52,850 $56,500 $60,150 Low-
Income $51,050 $58,350 $65,650 $72,900 $78,750 $84,600 $90,400 $96,250 Median
Income $64,800 $74,100 $83,350 $92,600 $100,000 $107,400 $114,800 $122,250 Moderate-
Income $77,750 $88,900 $100,000 $11,100 $120,000 $128,900 $137,750 $146,650 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development, State Income Limits 2024
9 Government Code Section 65583(a) defines extremely low-income households as earning 30 percent or below area median income, and considers them a subset of the very low-income category. The extremely low -, very low-, and low- income groups are referred to as lower-income.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-21 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-12 illustrates 2019 households by income level in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. In Ceres, 47 percent of households are lower-income households. This aligns with the relatively high rates of households experiencing some type of cost burden (36 percent) in Ceres.
Overall, household income in Ceres is consistent with the County and nearby cities of Oakdale and Turlock.
Figure A-12 Households by Income Level by Jurisdiction, 2015-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) ACS tabulation, 2015-2019 release.
Table A-11 summarizes households by income category in Ceres. Lower-income households makeup 47 percent of households in the City followed by above moderate-income households (42 percent). Approximately 11 percent of the households in Ceres identify as extremely low- income. Considering nearly half of all households are lower-income, it is likely that there is a need for more affordable housing options.
Table A-11 Households by Income Category, Ceres, 2015-2019 Income Category (% of County MFI) Households Percent
Extremely Low-Income (30% MFI or less) 1,455 11%
Very Low-Income (30-50% MFI) 1,780 14%
Low-Income (50-80% MFI) 2,830 22%
Moderate-Income (80-100% MFI) 1,480 11%
Above Moderate-Income (>100% MFI) 5,435 42%
Total 12,980 100%
SOURCE: Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), 2015-2019 12% 11% 10% 14%
13% 14% 15% 13%
18% 22% 15% 16%
10%
11%
9% 10%
48% 42% 51% 47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
Greater than 100% of AMI
81%-100% of AMI
51%-80% of AMI
31%-50% of AMI
0%-30% of AMI
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-22 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-13 illustrates the median household income in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities in 2019. Ceres’ median household income was $58,667 – approximately $2,037 lower than the County. The City of Oakdale had the highest median household income at $64,555 followed by the County ($60,704). Understanding Ceres’ median household income clarifies what income category households identify with and what is deemed affordable.
Figure A-13 Median Household Income by Jurisdiction, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
Figure A-14 provides a breakdown of 2019 incomes by category in Ceres. Twenty-two (22) percent of Ceres residents earn an annual income between $50,000-$74,999. Conversely, an approximate 42 percent are earning less than $50,000, less than the City’s median household income. Eighteen percent are earning below $25,000.
Figure A-14 Income by Category, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019
$60,704
$58,667
$64,555
$59,681
$55,000
$56,000
$57,000
$58,000
$59,000
$60,000
$61,000
$62,000
$63,000
$64,000
$65,000
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
18%
12%
12%
22%
14%
16%
4%
3%
Less than $25,000
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,000
$200,000 or more
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-23 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 A.3 Integration and Segregation
To inform priorities, policies, and actions, the housing element must include an analysis of integration and segregation, including patterns and trends. Integration generally means a condition in which there is not a high concentration of persons of a particular race, color, religion, sex, familial status, national origin, or having a disability or a particular type of disability in a specific geographic area. Segregation generally means the opposite condition, where concentrations of the characteristics described above are high in a specific geographic area.
Integration and Segregation
“Integration generally means a condition in which there is not a high concentration of persons of a particular race, color, religion, sex, familial status, national origin, or having a disability or a particular type of disability when compared to a broader geographic area.
Segregation generally means a condition in which there is a high concentration of persons of a particular race, color, religion, sex, familial status, national origin, or having a disability or a type of disability in a particular geographic area when compared to a broader geographic area.” SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development Guidance, 2021, page 31.
Residential segregation and exclusion, whether by race, ethnicity, disability, or income, is a result of numerous housing policies, practices, and procedures—both public and private—that have had enduring and pervasive negative impacts. Overt and covert housing discrimination through land use policy, shifting housing markets, and patterns of investment and disinvestment, have restricted meaningful fair housing choice and equitable access to opportunity, particularly for communities of color. Historic patterns of segregation persist in California despite the long-standing federal mandate, established by the Fair Housing Act of 1968, that federal agencies and federal grantees affirmatively further the purposes of the FHA.
Past and present discriminatory policies and practices, including long-term disinvestment, have resulted in neighborhoods with concentrated poverty and poor housing stock, limited access to opportunity, unsafe environmental conditions, underfunded schools, dilapidated infrastructure, and other disproportionately experienced problems. In addition, governmental policies have subsidized the development of segregated, high-resourced suburbs in metropolitan areas by constructing new highway systems—often through lower income communities of color— to ensure access to job opportunities in urban centers. This physical and policy infrastructure supports patterns of discrimination and high levels of segregation that continue to persist in California and across the country. All of these conditions persist despite the over 50-year-old obligation to prohibit discrimination and affirmatively further fair housing.
10 10 California Department of Housing and Community Development. 2021. AFFH Guidance Memo. https://www.hcd.ca.gov/community- development/affh/docs/affh_document_final_4-27-2021.pdf
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-24 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Race and Ethnicity
Understanding the demographic, ethnic, and racial composition of a city is vital to ensuring equal opportunity to housing for all groups. This section provides an overview of racial/ethnic composition and segregation patterns within Stanislaus County, Ceres, and nearby jurisdictions.
Regional Trends
Regionally, the central urbanized area and western rural areas of Stanislaus County contained populations with at least 80 percent non-white residents, as shown in Figure A-15. Communities adjacent to U.S. 101 had populations with at least 80 percent non-white residents, especially west of Highway 99. Comparatively, the eastern portion of Stanislaus County contained populations with higher percentages of white residents. Geographically, areas with less than 20 percent non-white residents were located east of Highway 99. The central urbanized area of Stanislaus County also contained higher concentrations of white residents, where in some areas such as Modesto, non- white residents represented less than 20 percent of the population. Racial/ethnic diversity has increased between 2010 and 2020 in Stanislaus County (Table A-12).
The percentage of non-Hispanic white residents in the County has decreased by 6 percent and the percentage of Hispanic/Latino residents increased by approximately 6 percent. The percentage of Asian, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, Black/African American, American Indian/Alaska Native, and other/multiple race residents changed by less than one percent.
Local Trends
According to 2015-2019 ACS estimates, the central area and outer edges of Ceres contained the highest percentage of non-white residents, as shown in Figure A-16. Figure A-17 illustrates the predominant population in Stanislaus County. The entirety of the city has a predominant Hispanic/Latino majority population, as illustrated in Figure A-18. Census Tract 31, located west of Crows Landing Road, and Census Tracts 26.03 and 30.03, located east of North Central Avenue, had the lowest percentage of total non-white populations in the city.
The Diversity Index measures the degree to which the five major ethnic populations (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Asian and Pacific Islander, Hispanic, and Two or more races) are evenly distributed across a geographic area. The index ranges from 0 to 1 – where 0 is low diversity, meaning only one group is present, and 1 is high diversity, meaning an equal proportion of all five groups is present.
Figure A-19 illustrates the level of diversity in Ceres. According to the HCD AFFH Data Viewer map of diversity, Ceres’ diversity level is greater than or equal to 0.70, reflecting a moderate to high diversity level across the City. Compared to nearby cities Oakdale and Turlock, Ceres is more equally diverse. The City of Oakdale and Turlock both show geographic concentrations of lower levels of diversity.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-25 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-12 Population by Racial Group, City of Ceres and Stanislaus County, 2010-2019 Ethnic
Group
2010 2015 2019
City of Ceres Stanislaus
County City of Ceres Stanislaus
County City of Ceres Stanislaus
County
Total % Total % Total % Total % Total % Total %
Non-
Hispanic
White
14,616 33.1% 245,803 48.2% 13,366 28.5% 235,880 44.7% 11,774 24.4% 227,369 41.9% Black/African
American 1,204 2.7% 13,230 2.6% 788 1.7% 12,904 2.4% 1,785 3.7% 15,311 2.8% Hispanic or
Latino 23,182 52.5% 206,983 40.6% 28,503 60.7% 230,087 43.6% 29,597 61.4% 251,259 46.3% Am.
Ind./Alaska
Native
317 0.7% 3,126 0.6% 275 0.6% 2,593 0.5% 318 0.7% 2,481 0.5% Asian 3,854 8.7% 26,026 5.1% 2,598 5.5% 27,680 5.2% 3,227 6.7% 29,284 5.4% Native
Hawaiian
and PI
182 0.4% 3,101 0.6% 165 0.4% 3,704 0.7% 241 0.5% 3,625 0.7% Other/Two or
More Races 798 1.8% 11,413 2.2% 1,257 2.7% 14,519 2.8% 1,272 2.6% 13,865 2.6% Total
Population 44,153 100% 509,682 100% 46,952 100% 527,367 100% 48,214 100% 543,194 100% SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2010-2019
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-26 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-15 Percent Non-White Population, Stanislaus County, 2018
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-27 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-16 Percent Non-White Population, Ceres, 2018
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-28 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-17 Predominant Population, Stanislaus County
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-29 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-18 Predominant Population, Ceres, 2018
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-30 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-19 Diversity Index, Ceres, 2018
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-31 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 To ensure that the predominant Hispanic/Latino populations of Ceres are informed about fair housing laws and their individual rights, the City has implemented Program 5.1 Fair Housing (see Chapter 2). This initiative ensures that the City provides current information on state and federal fair housing laws in both English and Spanish on its website and in public spaces across the city.
Furthermore, the program mandates the presence of a bilingual staff member to facilitate discussions regarding fair housing and assist victims of fair housing discrimination.
Persons with Disabilities
For persons with disabilities, fair housing choice and access to opportunity includes access to housing in the most integrated setting appropriate to an individual’s special needs and disability related services as required under federal civil rights law. For example, persons with disabilities who are unable to use stairs or need a zero-step shower may not have actual housing choice without the presence of housing units with these accessibility features. 11 High spatial segregation of persons with disabilities may indicate fair housing issues related to not only physical needs, but also economic disparities. According to the 2020 Annual Report on People with Disabilities in America, more than 25 percent of persons with disabilities (including physical, intellectual, and developmental; sensory; and other disability categories) live below the Census Bureau-designated poverty line, which is 14.5 percentage points higher than people without a disability.
12 Persons with disabilities may be more reliant than persons without disabilities on fixed incomes or access to public transit.
Regional Trends
According to 2019 ACS 5-year estimates, approximately 71,011 Stanislaus County residents had one or more disabilities. Table A-13 shows employment status by disability status estimates for Stanislaus County. Approximately 5.3 percent of the total employed population in the county has one or more disabilities, reflecting less than 1 percent change from 2010, while the percent of total unemployed decreased from 8 percent to 5.3 percent during this time. Additional discussion regarding persons with disabilities in Stanislaus County and Ceres is included in Section A.4 Special Needs Groups of this appendix.
11 HCD 2021. https://www.hcd.ca.gov/community-development/affh/docs/affh_document_final_4-27-2021.pdf 12 The Rehabilitation Research and Training Center on Disability Statistics and Demographics 2020. https://disabilitycompendium.org/annualreport
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-32 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-13 Employment Status by Disability Status, Stanislaus County, 2015-2019 Disability
Status
2010 2015 2019
Employed
(Percent of
Total
Employed)
Unemployed
(Percent of
Total
Unemployed)
Employed
(Percent of
Total
Employed)
Unemployed
(Percent of
Total
Unemployed)
Employed
(Percent of
Total
Employed)
Unemployed
(Percent of
Total
Unemployed)
No Disability 180,182
(94.8%)
36,064
(92.0%)
194,210
(94.1%) 23,236 (89.0%) 214,730
(94.6%)
16,144
(94.6%)
With a Disability 9,894 (5.2%) 3,139 (8.0%) 12,060 (5.8%) 2,863 (11.0%) 12,148 (5.3%) 908 (5.3%) Total 190,076 39,203 206,270 26,099 226,878 17,052
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2010-2019, Table C18120 Figure A-20 shows the spatial distribution of residents living with one or more disabilities across the county. Communities located throughout the central urbanized region of the county were estimated to have a larger share of residents with disabilities compared to communities located in more rural areas in the western regions of the county. The largest portion of residents living with one or more disabilities is primarily contained in areas within and along the outer edges of Modesto.
Local Trends
According to 2019 5-year ACS estimates, 5,975 residents (approximately 13 percent) of Ceres’ population live with one or more disabilities, reflecting no change since 2012. Figure A-21 shows the percentage of the population living with one or more disabilities in the city by census tract, using 2015-2019 ACS data. Generally, most of the city had between 10 to 20 percent of residents reported living with one or more disabilities. Census tract 25.04 and 30.03 had the lowest percentages of residents reported living with one or more disabilities (less than 10 percent). Both of these census tracts are predominantly Hispanic/Latino and had a median household income that was between $55,000 and $90,100, according to 2017-2019 estimates. Community feedback from stakeholders indicated a desire for integrated housing for those with disabilities.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-33 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-20 Percentage of Population with One or More Disabilities, Stanislaus County, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-34 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-21 Population with One or More Disabilities, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-35 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Familial Status
According to the Fair Housing Act, familial status refers to the presence of children under the age of 18 in a household with a legal guardian or designee of such guardian.13 HUD provides examples of familial discrimination as (a) refusing to rent to families with children; (b) evicting families once a child joins the family through birth, adoption, custody, etc.; (c) requiring families with children to live on specific floors or in specific buildings or areas; (d) imposing overly restrictive rules about children’s use of the common areas (i.e., pools, hallways, open spaces); (e) and in advertising that prohibits children.14 Single-parent households are protected by Government Code Section 65583(a)(7). Because of their relatively lower incomes and higher living expenses, single-parent households can have limited options for affordable, decent, and safe housing. As a result, single parents are among the groups most at risk of experiencing poverty.
In addition to barriers to fair housing for single-parent households, large families (defined as families with 5 or more persons) can also experience housing discrimination as property owners impose occupancy limitations that can preclude large families with children. HUD data shows that familial status discrimination ranks third in discrimination of protected classes, behind discrimination due to disability and race.15
Regional Trends
According to 2019 ACS 5-year estimates, Stanislaus County had a total household count of approximately 173,898. In 2019, households with children present comprised 36 percent (62,348) of the total households in Stanislaus County. Tenure by household type and presence of children is shown in Table A-14. Married couple families with children comprise the largest share of owner- and renter-occupied households with children. Single-parent, female-headed households comprised approximately 13.7 percent of renter-occupied households, but only 3.5 percent of owner-occupied households. For renter-occupied households, the total single-parent, male-headed households were less than half of that of single-parent, female-headed households, showing there are more single- parent female-headed households in the county.
13 42 U.S. Code sections 3601, et seq., the Fair Housing Act 14 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/fair_housing_equal_opp/discrimination_against_families_children#_Who_Is_ Protected?
15 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. “Annual Report on Fair Housing FY 2017.”
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-36 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-14 Tenure by Household Type and Presence of Children, Stanislaus County, 2019 Household Type Owner-
Occupied Percent Renter-
Occupied Percent
Married couple family, with
Children Present 24,918 24.7% 17,170 23.4%
Single-Parent, Male
householder, no spouse present 2,589 2.5% 3,980 5.4%
Single-Parent, Female
householder, no spouse present 3,619 3.5% 10,072 13.7%
Total Households with Children
Present 31,126 31.0% 31,222 42.6%
Total Households 100,576 100% 73,322 100%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates, 2019, Table B25115 According to 2010 ACS 5-year estimates, approximately 8 percent of all households in 2010 were single-parent, female-headed households. This indicates a slight reduction in single-parents, female- headed households from 2010 to 2019. Similar to 2019, most of the female-headed households with children occupied rental housing within the County.
According to 2019 ACS 5-year estimates, jurisdictions located in the central urbanized regions of the county, primarily along Highway 99, such as the cities of Modesto, Ceres, and Turlock had relatively higher proportions of children who reside in female-headed, single-parent households. In contrast, the more rural areas in the west and eastern regions of the county, including the cities of Patterson and Newman, had less single-parent households.
As shown in Figure A-22, the percentage of single female-headed households with children varies throughout the urban areas of Stanislaus County ranging from less than 20 percent up to 60 percent.
Figure A-23 shows the percentage of adults living alone in the county. In Stanislaus County, there is a concentration of adults living alone in the central urbanized region, specifically in the City of Modesto. This urban area has concentrations of adults who live alone ranging from 20 to 40 percent compared to the rest of the county, which were less than 20 percent of adults live along, including the cities of Salida, Ceres, Turlock, and Riverbank.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-37 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-22 Female-Headed Households with Children, No Spouse/Partner, Stanislaus County, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-38 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-23 Adults in Households Living Alone, Stanislaus County, 2019 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-39 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Local Trends
According to 2019 ACS 5-year estimates, approximately 46 percent of all households have children in Ceres, which is a slight increase from 2010 when approximately 44 percent of all households had children. In contrast to the County, Ceres experienced a slight increase in the number of single- parent, female-headed households from 2010 to 2019, increasing from 9 percent to 10 percent, respectively.
As shown in Figure A-24, Census Tracts 25.05 and 25.03, located west of Highway 99 along the outer edges of Ceres contain a larger percentage of children residing in single-parent, female-headed households. Census Tract 26.03, 26.04, and 27.02, located in the northern region of the Ceres, also contain a larger percentage of children residing in single-parent, female-headed households. These five census tracts each have between 20 to 40 percent of children residing in a single-parent, female- headed household. Comparatively, most areas located west of Highway 99 and east of Central Avenue exhibit less than 20 percent of children residing in single-parent, female-headed households.
The highest share of children in single-parent, female-headed households is located in Census Tracts
25.05, 25.03, 26.03, 26.04, and 27.02. Figure A-25 highlights the percent of adults living alone in Ceres. All census tracts in Ceres have less than 20 percent of adults living alone.
Household Income
Identifying low or moderate-income (LMI) geographies and individuals is important to overcome patterns of segregation. HUD defines an LMI area as a census tract or block group where over 51 percent of the population is LMI (based on HUD income definition of up to 80 percent of the area median income or AMI). Household income is directly connected to the ability to afford housing.
Higher-income households are more likely to own rather than rent housing. As household income decreases, households tend to pay a disproportionate amount of their income for housing, and they are more likely to occupy structurally unsound and overcrowded housing.
Regional Trends
Household median income is lower in communities located in the southeast region of Stanislaus County. According to 2019 ACS 5-year estimates, Stanislaus County had a median household income of $60,704. Figure A-26 provides median household income data by block group for Stanislaus County. Areas highlighted in blue reflect regions of Stanislaus County where the median household income is below the state median income of $87,100.
Block groups exhibiting the lowest median incomes are highly concentrated within the central urbanized region along Highway 99 and rural areas west of Highway 99. Figure A-27 highlights LMI populations according to block group in Stanislaus County. As shown, areas situated along Highway 99 within the cities of Salida, Modesto, Ceres, Shackleford, Keys, and Turlock that contain the highest LMI populations. Block groups within the nearby cities of Patterson, Newman, Waterford, Empire, and Hughston also contain high concentrations of LMI populations. Spatially, LMI populations overlap with block groups that are predominantly Hispanic/Latino.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-40 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-24 Female-Headed Households with Children, No Spouse/Partner, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-41 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-25 Adults in Households Living Alone, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-42 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-26 Median Household Income, Stanislaus County, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-43 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-27 Low and Moderate-Income Population, Stanislaus County 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-44 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Local Trends
According to 2019 ACS 5-year estimates, Ceres had an estimated median household income of $58,667. This is a 17 percent increase in median household income from 2010 ($50,124). As shown in Figure A-28, median household income varies across Ceres. Areas highlighted in blue reflect regions of the City where the median household income is below the state median income of $87,100. Similar to the County, block groups in Ceres exhibiting the lowest median incomes are primarily concentrated along Highway 99 and areas west of Highway 99. Figure A-29 highlights LMI populations in Ceres according to block group. Block groups located along Highway 99 and on the western outskirts of the city appear to have the highest concentrations of LMI populations. Spatially, LMI populations overlap with block groups that are predominantly Hispanic/Latino.
Racially or Ethnically Concentrated Areas of Poverty and Affluence Racially Concentrated Area of Poverty or an Ethnically Concentrated Area of Poverty (R/ECAP) and Racially Concentrated Areas of Affluence (RCAAs) represent opposing ends of the segregation spectrum from racially or ethnically segregated areas with high poverty rates to affluent predominantly White neighborhoods. Historically, HUD has paid particular attention to R/ECAPs as a focus of policy and obligations to AFFH. Recent research out of the University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs argues for the inclusion of RCAAs to acknowledge current and past policies that created and perpetuate these areas of high opportunity and exclusion. 16 R/ECAPs
HCD and HUD’s definition of a Racially/Ethnically Concentrated Area of Poverty is:
A census tract that has a non-White population of 50 percent or more (majority-minority) or, for non-urban areas, 20 percent, AND a poverty rate of 40 percent or more; OR A census tract that has a non-white population of 50 percent or more (majority-minority) AND the poverty rate is three times the average tract poverty rate for the County, whichever is lower.
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development Guidance, 2021.
16 Goetz, E. G., Damiano, A., & Williams, R. A. (2019). Racially Concentrated Areas of Affluence: A Preliminary Investigation. Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research, 21(1), 99–124
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-45 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-28 Median Household Income, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-46 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-29 Low and Moderate-Income Population, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-47 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 RCAAs
HCD and HUD’s definition of an RCAA is a census tract 1) with a percentage of its total White population that is 1.25 times higher than the average percentage of the COG region’s White population; and 2) has a median income that is 2 times higher than the COG Area Median Income (AMI). Generally, these are understood to be neighborhoods in which there are both high concentrations of non-Hispanic White households and high household income rates.
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development Guidance, 2023 It is important to note that R/ECAPs and RCAAs are not areas of focus because of racial and ethnic concentrations alone. This study recognizes that racial and ethnic clusters can be a part of fair housing choice if they occur in a non-discriminatory market. Rather, R/ECAPs are meant to identify areas where residents may have historically faced discrimination and continue to be challenged by limited economic opportunity, and conversely, RCAAs are meant to identify areas of particular advantage and exclusion.
Figure A-30 illustrates R/ECAPs in Ceres revealing there are no racially and ethnically concentrated areas of poverty in the City. There are however, R/ECAPS in the neighboring cities of Modesto and Turlock.
Figure A-31 illustrates RCAAs in Ceres revealing there are no racially concentrated areas of affluence in the City. There are however some RCAAs in the cities of Oakdale and Turlock.
The household income characteristics in Ceres reveal a demand for the development of more affordable housing options that appeal to larger households. Ceres is comprised of primarily higher- income households (53 percent), most of which identify as married-couple family households (56 percent).
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-48 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-30 R/ECAP by Census Tract, Ceres, 2023
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-49 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-31 RCAA by Census Tract, Ceres, 2015-2019
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-50 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 A.4 Disproportionate Housing Needs
Housing Problems and Severe Housing Problems
The following section details housing problems and severe housing problems in Ceres according to the Census Bureau Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS).
Disproportionate Housing Needs
“Disproportionate housing needs generally refers to a condition in which there are significant disparities in the proportion of members of a protected class experiencing a category of housing need when compared to the proportion of members of any other relevant groups, or the total population experiencing that category of housing need in the applicable geographic area. For purposes of this definition, categories of housing need are based on such factors as cost burden and severe cost burden, overcrowding, homelessness, and substandard housing conditions.”
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development Guidance, 2021, page 39.
The CHAS data set provides in-depth analysis on housing needs by income level according to types of households. According the CHAS, housing problems are defined as having one or more of the following variables:
Incomplete kitchen facilities;
Incomplete plumbing facilities;
More than one person per room; and
Cost burden greater than 30 percent.
Severe housing problems are defined as having one or more of the following variables:
Incomplete kitchen facilities;
Incomplete plumbing facilities;
More than 1.5 persons per room; and
Cost burden greater than 50 percent.
Additionally, CHAS defines cost burden as the ratio of housing costs to household income. The following defines cost burden by renter and owner:
Renter Cost Burden: gross rent (contract rent plus utilities); and Owner Cost Burden: select monthly owner costs including mortgage payment, utilities, association fees, insurance, and real estate taxes.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-51 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-32 and Figure A-33 illustrate housing problems by tenure and severe housing problems by tenure in Ceres. Approximately 55 percent of renter households have at least one of four housing problems and 37 percent have at least one of four severe housing problems. In contrast, 35 percent of owner households experience at least one housing problem and 18 percent experience at least one severe housing problem.
Figure A-32 Housing Problems by Tenure, Ceres, 2015-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, CHAS Data, 2015-2019
NOTE: The four housing problems are: incomplete kitchen facilities, incomplete plumbing facilities, more than 1 person per room, and cost burden greater than 30%.
Figure A-33 Severe Housing Problems by Tenure, Ceres, 2015-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, CHAS Data, 2015-2019
NOTE: The four housing problems are: incomplete kitchen facilities, incomplete plumbing facilities, more than 1.5 person per room, and cost burden greater than 50%.
35%
55%
65%
45%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Owner %
Renter % Household has at least 1 of 4
Housing Problems
Household has none of 4
Housing Problems OR cost
burden not available, no
other problems
18%
37%
82%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Owner %
Renter % Household has at least 1 of 4
Severe Housing Problems
Household has none of 4 Severe
Housing Problems OR cost
burden not available, no other
problems
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-52 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Overcrowding
Understanding the prevalence of overcrowded households within a community helps determine the need for affordable and adequately sized housing units for the community. Overcrowding is defined as a household with more than one occupant per room excluding bathrooms and kitchens. Units with more than 1.5 persons per room are considered severely overcrowded. Overcrowding may occur due to a lack of available affordable and/or adequately sized housing units. Cultural norms and customs combined with low-income or lack of adequately size housing units can result in overcrowding too. For example, in some cultures, households are often comprised of multi- generations. If this custom is also compounded by low-income or lack of adequately sized housing units overcrowding may occur.
In Ceres, approximately 1,263 households experience some level of overcrowding. Of which, approximately 987 households are moderately overcrowded (1.01 to 1.50 occupants per room) and 276 households are severely overcrowded (1.51 or more occupants per room). Figure A-34 illustrates overcrowding by severity in Ceres compared to the County and nearby comparable cities in 2019. The City of Oakdale households experience the least amount of overcrowding (3 percent percent) and no severe overcrowding, compared to Ceres households that experience 8 percent overcrowding and 2 percent severe overcrowding. Ceres households experience approximately 3 percentage points more overcrowding overall than the County.
Figure A-34 Overcrowding by Severity by Jurisdiction, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
93%
90%
96%
94%
5%
8%
3%
4%
2% 2% 0% 2%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
More than 1.5 Occupants per
Room
1.0 to 1.5 Occupants per Room
1.0 or Less Occupants per Room
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-53 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-35 illustrates overcrowding by tenure and severity in Ceres. Overcrowding by tenure is significant in Ceres, as renter-occupied households experience nearly twice as much overcrowding as owner-occupied households. Approximately 579 owner-occupied households (7 percent) in Ceres experience overcrowding compared to 684 renter-occupied households (13 percent).
Of the 684 renter-occupied households experiencing overcrowding, 125 households (2 percent) are severely overcrowded and 559 households (11 percent) are moderately overcrowded. Of the 579 owner-occupied households experiencing overcrowding, 151 (2 percent) are severely overcrowded and 428 (5 percent) are moderately overcrowded. This is indicative of a lack of affordable housing options that accommodate the needs of Ceres renter households.
Figure A-35 Overcrowding by Tenure and Severity, Ceres, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
Figure A-36 illustrates concentrations of overcrowding across the region. According to the HCD AFFH Data Viewer, overcrowding in Ceres is most prevalent in the center and western areas of the City. In these regions, overcrowding rates fall within a range of 8-12 percent. Similarly, Figure A-28 reveals that households earning less than $55,000, less than the City’s median household income, are concentrated in the center of the City. These concentrations indicate a need for more housing that adequately and affordably meets the needs of households in the center region of Ceres. 93%
86%
5%
11%
2% 2%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
More than 1.5 Occupants per
Room
1.01 to 1.5 Occupants per
Room
1.0 or Less Occupant per
Room
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-54 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-36 Overcrowded Households, Ceres
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-55 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Cost Burden
According to HCD, overpayment or cost burden is measured as households spending more than 30 percent of their gross income including utilities for housing; severe overpayment or severe cost burden is measured as households spending 50 percent or more of their gross income for housing.
For the duration of this report, overpayment will be referred to as cost burden.
The cost burden rates of owners and renters in a community provide insight to housing needs such as, the affordability of the local housing market and the availability of housing units that accommodate household needs like size and housing type. Additionally, federal and state agencies examine cost burden to determine a community’s need for housing assistance.
Figure A-37 illustrates cost burden severity in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities.
Compared to the County and nearby cities, Ceres households have similar rates of cost burden. In Ceres, 36 percent of households are cost burdened and 17 percent are severely cost burdened. The City of Turlock has slightly higher rate of severely cost burdened households (18 percent) compared to Ceres, and the County has a slightly lower rate (16 percent). Overall, the City of Turlock has the highest percent of households experiencing any type of cost burden (39 percent).
Figure A-37 Cost Burden Severity by Jurisdiction, 2015-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, CHAS Data, 2015-2019
63% 63% 64% 60%
19% 19% 22% 21%
16% 17% 13% 18%
1% 1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
Not Computed
50%+ of Income Used for Housing
30%-50% of Income Used for
Housing
0%-30% of Income Used for
Housing
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-56 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-38 illustrates cost burden by tenure in Ceres. Renter households experience substantially higher rates of cost burden (23 percent) and severe cost burden (25 percent) than owner households.
Seventeen (17) percent of owner-occupied households are cost burdened and 10 percent are severely cost burdened. Figure A-11 reports that 39 percent of households in Ceres are renters – this in tandem with 48 percent of renter households experiencing some type of cost burden and 13 percent experiencing some type of overcrowding reflects a demand for more affordable housing units.
Figure A-38 Cost Burden by Tenure, Ceres, 2015-2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, CHAS Data, 2015-2019
Figure A-39 illustrates concentrations of cost burden among home owners across the region.
According to the HCD AFFH Data Viewer, the highest rates of cost burden among home owners in Ceres is concentrated in the eastern and western regions of the City. In these regions, 40-60 percent of owner households experience cost burden. The nearby cities of Oakdale and Turlock show concentrations between 20-60 percent cost burdened owner households. The City of Turlock has a pocket of concentration of up to 80 percent cost burdened owner households.
Figure A-40 illustrates concentrations of cost burden among renters across the region. When analyzing cost burden among renter-occupied households in Ceres, the majority of the City has a concentration of 40-60 percent cost burdened renter households. The highest concentration of cost burdened renter households is 60-80 percent, which are located in a small area in the eastern region.
The lowest concentration is in the southernmost region of the City at <20 percent.
73%
50%
17%
23%
10%
25%
1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
Not Computed
50%+ of Income Used for
Housing
30%-50% of Income Used for
Housing
0%-30% of Income Used for
Housing
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-57 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-39 Cost Burden by Home Owners, Ceres, 2015-2019 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-58 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-40 Cost Burden by Renter Households, Ceres, 2015-2019 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-59 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 A.5 Special Needs Groups
Special needs groups are those that may face particular challenges in obtaining adequate housing due to inherent circumstances such as age, disabilities, household size, income level, age, and occupation.
Large families, single parent households, female-headed households, or extremely low- and low- income households, and homeless persons may be classified as Special Needs groups. Special Needs groups are identified due to the unique nature of household characteristics and potential housing challenges faced. Table A-15 provides a summary of special needs groups in Ceres.
Table A-15 Overview of Special Needs Groups
Special Needs Groups Count Percent of Total
Households
Percent of Total
Population
Total population 48,214 -- 100%
Total occupied units (households) 12,975 100% --
Extremely Low-income (0-30% of HAMFI)
households 1,455 households 11% --
Total Senior Population 2,451 persons -- 5%
Senior Owner-Households 2,023 households 16% --
Senior Renter-Households 428 households 3% --
Persons with Disabilities 11,404 persons -- 24%
Persons with Developmental
Disabilities1 1,467 persons -- --
Large Households 3,168 households 24% --
Single-Parent Households 3,669 households 28% --
Single-Parent, Female Headed
Households with Children (under 18)
below poverty line
606 households 5% --
People Living in Poverty 7,170 persons -- 15%
Farmworkers2 12,713 persons -- --
Migrant Farmworkers 3,503 persons -- --
Seasonal Farmworkers 6,429 persons -- --
Permanent Farmworkers 6,284 persons -- --
Persons Experiencing Homelessness3 17 persons -- --
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019; U.S. Census Bureau CHAS 2015-2019 Data; USDA Statistics Services; California Department of Developmental Services, Consumer Count by California ZIP Code and Residence Type (2021).
NOTE: 1. Data provided by California Department of Developmental Services and taken at the ZIP code level.
2. Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting and mining industry. Farmworker data is taken of the population 16 years and older. Data provided by USDA Statistics Services and taken at the County level for 2017; includes permanent and seasonal farmworkers.
3. Total results from 2023 Stanislaus County Homeless Point-In-Time Count.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-60 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Extremely Low-Income Households and Poverty Status
Extremely low-income (ELI) households are those that earn less than 30 percent of the median family income (MFI). Very low-income households are those that earn 50 percent of less of the MFI. Extremely low-income households typically face a combination of housing challenges related to income status, family size/type, disability status, access to housing opportunities and other household characteristics. Additionally, ELI households are more likely to experience overcrowding, cost burden, and substandard housing conditions. Extremely low-income households are typically minimum-wage workers, disabled persons, farmworkers, and seniors on fixed incomes.
The 2015-2019 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data indicates there are approximately 1,455 are extremely low-income households (11 percent of total households) in Ceres (Table A-16). Of the extremely low-income households in Ceres, 69 percent are renter-occupied households and 31 percent are owner-occupied households, or 8 percent and 4 percent of all households, respectively.
Table A-16 Extremely Low-Income Households, Ceres, 2015-2019 Households Number Percentage of Total
Households
Total occupied units (households) 12,975 100%
Total Lower-income (0-80% of HAMFI) households 6,065 47% Extremely Low-income (0-30% of HAMFI) households 1,455 11% Extremely Low-income renters 1,000 8%
Extremely Low-income owners 455 4%
Lower-income households paying more than 50% 2,235 17%
Extremely Low-income paying more than 50% 1,070 8%
ELI Renter HH severely cost burdened 715 6%
ELI Owner HH severely cost burdened 355 3%
Lower-income households paying more than 30% 4,015 31%
Extremely Low-income paying more than 30% 1,220 9%
ELI Renter HH moderately cost burdened 830 6%
ELI Owner HH moderately cost burdened 390 3%
Lower-income households experiencing 1 of 4 Housing Problems 4,320 33% Extremely Low-income households experiencing 1 of 4 Housing Problems 1,230 9% ELI Renter HH experiencing 1 of 4 Housing Problems 840 6% ELI Owner HH experiencing 1 of 4 Housing Problems 390 3% SOURCE: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) 2015-2019.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-61 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 NOTE: MFI = HUD Median Family Income, this is the median family income calculated by HUD for each jurisdiction, to determine Fair Market Rents (FMRs) and income limits for HUD programs. MFI will not necessary be the same as other calculations of median incomes (such as Census number), due to a series of adjustments that are made.
The four housing problems are: incomplete kitchen facilities, incomplete plumbing facilities, more than 1 person per room, and cost burden greater than 30%. ***Cost burden is the ratio of housing costs to household income. For renters, housing cost is gross rent (contract rent plus utilities). For owners, housing cost is "select monthly owner costs", which includes mortgage payment, utilities, association fees, insurance, and real estate taxes.
When analyzing cost burden by ELI households, approximately 1,070 ELI households experience severe cost burden (paying more than 50 percent of median gross income on housing) and 1,220 experience moderate cost burden (paying more than 30 percent of median gross income on housing). Of the ELI households experiencing some form of cost burden, the majority are renter- occupied households.
The projected RHNA for ELI households was based on the assumption that 50 percent of very low- income households qualify as extremely low-income households. The very low-income housing need is 706 housing units, of which the City estimates 353 housing units will accommodate the ELI housing need.
Figure A-41 illustrates the population living below the poverty level in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable jurisdictions. In Ceres, 15 percent of the population are living below the poverty level. Similarly, the percentage of individuals living below poverty in the County is 15 percent and 16 and 12 percent in Turlock and Oakdale, respectively.
Figure A-41 Population Below Poverty Level by Jurisdiction, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
15% 15%
12%
16%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-62 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 In 2019, approximately 7,170 persons in Ceres were identified as living below the poverty line; 15 percent of the population.17 Figure A-42 illustrates the percent of the population in Ceres living below the poverty line in 2019 by race and ethnicity. The Hispanic or Latino population represents 62 percent of the total population of which 14 percent is living below the poverty line. Conversely, the non-Hispanic White population has 3 percent more households living below the poverty line than the Hispanic or Latino population despite its smaller total population. The Other Race or Multiples Races population experiences the second highest rate of poverty with 32 percent living below the poverty line.
Figure A-42 Percent Living Below the Poverty Line by Race and Ethnicity, Ceres, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
NOTE: Race/Ethnicity represents percentage of the total population.
Resources
In the City of Ceres, housing costs and affordability may pose a challenge to ELI households. With a median household income of $58,667 (compared to a median household income of $60,704 in Stanislaus County), ELI residents may find it difficult to achieve homeownership. Additionally, ELI residents typically experience limited accessibility to suitable transportation services to commute from home to work. Currently, there are 352 deed-restricted affordable units in the City. To ensure these units are preserved, the City will implement Program 2.4 Conserve At-Risk Units. This initiative is aimed at conserving deed-restricted affordable units by monitoring their estimated affordability end dates, and when necessary, identifying potential buyers for at-risk units to ensure they remain deed-restricted.
17 U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019, Table S1701 Hispanic or
Latino
Other Race
or Multiple
Races
(Hispanic
and Non-
Hispanic)
White
(Hispanic
and Non-
Hispanic)
White,
Non-
Hispanic
Asian
alone
Native
Hawaiian
and Other
Pacific
Islander
Black or
African
American
(Hispanic
and Non-
Hispanic)
American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
(Hispanic
and Non-
Hispanic)
Below Poverty Line 14% 32% 15% 17% 16% 35% 14% 11%
Race/Ethnicity* 62.0% 22.4% 65.3% 24.1% 6.9% 0.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-63 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 To address the needs of ELI households, the City will implement housing programs to facilitate the construction of affordable and supportive housing for ELI households. Programs that will directly impact ELI households include:
Program 2.1: Preserve Mobile Home Parks;
Program 3.1: Housing Diversity;
Program 3.8: Affordable Housing for Extremely Low-Income Housing Residents; Program 5.1: Fair Housing Program;
Program 5.2: Housing Choice Voucher;
Program 5.3: First-Time Home Buyer Downpayment Assistance; and Program 5.5: Place-Based Strategies to Support Economic Mobility.
All housing policies and programs can be found in Chapter 2 of the Housing Element.
In addition to the City's initiatives to foster affordable housing and link ELI and special needs households with the necessary support and resources, the following regional service providers and programs are available to assist ELI households:
Project Sentinel: Fair Housing Center;
Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority: Housing Choice Voucher Program; Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority;
Stanislaus County Affordable Housing Corporation;
First-time Homebuyer Assistance; and
Stanislaus County Regional Transit (StaRT) Dial-A-Ride.
Seniors
Seniors are identified as individuals 65 years and older. Senior households often experience a combination of factors that can make accessing or keeping affordable housing a challenge. They often live on fixed incomes and are more likely to have disabilities, chronic health conditions and/or reduced mobility. Seniors who rent may be at even greater risk for housing challenges than those who own, due to income differences between these groups.
Figure A-43 illustrates the senior population in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities.
Compared to the County and nearby cities, Ceres has the lowest senior population (10 percent), approximately 3 percentage points less than the County. The City of Turlock mirrors the County with a senior population of 13 percent.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-64 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-43 Senior Population by Jurisdiction, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
NOTE: Senior population is identified as persons 65 years and older.
Figure A-44 illustrates senior housing by tenure in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities during 2019. In Ceres, senior households are primarily owners (83 percent). This aligns with the County and nearby cities, however, the percentage of senior households that own a home in Ceres is 10 percentage points more than the County and 19 percentage points more than Turlock.
Figure A-44 Senior Housing by Tenure, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
NOTE: Senior population is identified as persons 65 years and older.
13%
10% 11% 13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Stanislaus County Ceres Oakdale Turlock
73% 83% 72% 64%
27% 17% 28% 36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
Renter
Owner
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-65 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-45 illustrates senior households by their income. Most of Ceres’ senior households earn a yearly income between $10,000-$19,999 (19 percent). Less than 12 percent of senior households earn more than $100,000.
Figure A-45 Senior Households by Income, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
NOTE: Senior population is identified as persons 65 years and older.
Resources
In Ceres, seniors (age 65+) makeup approximately 10 percent of the population. Consequently, the County and local non-profits offer the bulk of services tailored to senior residents instead of the City.
There is one senior living community located in Ceres — Ceres Christian Terrace located at 1859 Richard Way in the northeastern region of the city along Highway 99. The community provides 67 residential units and is funded through the Section 202 program. Additionally, there are two licensed residential care facilities in Ceres, including Davis Guest Home #5 located at 2405 Mauna Loa Drive and Welcome Home located at 1602 Charlottesville Lane. Davis Guest Home #5 has capacity to serve eight (8) individuals and Welcome Home has capacity to serve six (6) individuals.
Comfort Keepers, situated at 5831 Stoddard Road, Suite 802 in Modesto, offers a range of in-home care services for adults and seniors. These services include companion care, personal care, transportation, technological assistance, temporary or respite care, and interactive caregiving.
Additionally, the organization offers specialized 24-hour care.
5%
19%
16%
15%
9%
6%
7%
11%
4%
3%
2%
2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Less than $10,000
$10,000 - $19,999
$20,000 - $29,999
$30,000 - $39,999
$40,000 - $49,000
$50,000 - $59,000
$60,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $124,999
$125,000 - $149,000
$150,000 - $199,999
$200,000 or more
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-66 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 In addition to the organizations listed above, the following regional service providers and programs are available to assist Ceres’ seniors:
Stanislaus County Regional Transit (StaRT) Dial-A-Ride.; Stanislaus County Department of Aging and Veterans Services; Prevention & Early Intervention (PEI) services for older adults; Project Hope: provides Professional Brief Counseling, volunteer Peer Counseling / support, and Friendly Visitors;
Modesto Senior Citizens Services;
Sitters of Stanislaus (SOS Elder Care);
Habitat for Humanity Modesto; and
Meals on Wheels (Stanislaus County).
To address the needs of Senior households within the jurisdiction, the City of Ceres will implement the following programs during the 6
th Cycle:
Program 1.5: Promote Secondary Dwelling Unit (ADU and JADU); Program 2.1: Preservation of Mobile Home Parks;
Program 2.4: Preservation of Rental Housing;
Program 3.1: Housing Diversity;
Program 3.3: Housing Assistance for Senior Residents; Program 3.9: Accessible/Adaptable Units for Residents with Disabilities; Program 3.12: Housing Assistance for Veterans;
Program 3.15: Reasonable Accommodation; and
Program 5.1: Fair Housing.
People with Disabilities
People with disabilities face additional housing challenges. Encompassing a broad group of individuals living with a variety of physical, cognitive and sensory impairments, many people with disabilities live on fixed incomes and are in need of specialized care, yet often rely on family members for assistance due to the high cost of care. When it comes to housing, people with disabilities are not only in need of affordable housing but accessibly designed housing, which offers greater mobility and opportunity for independence. Unfortunately, the need typically outweighs what is available, particularly in a housing market with such high demand. People with disabilities are at a high risk for housing insecurity, homelessness and institutionalization, particularly when they lose aging caregivers.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-67 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-46 illustrates population by disability status in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities in 2019. In Ceres, 24 percent of the population has some form of disability. This reflects an approximate 11 percentage points higher rate of persons with disability than the County (13 percent) and the City of Turlock (13 percent), and is 14 percentage points higher compared to the City of Oakdale (10 percent).
Figure A-46 Population by Disability Status by Jurisdiction, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
Over the last decade, the population of persons with disabilities has generally remained constant in Ceres. Figure A-47 illustrates trends in persons with disabilities in Ceres between 2012-2019. In 2014, the population of persons with disabilities began to slightly increase from 13 percent to 14 percent. However, the trend returned to 13 percent in 2016 and remained through 2019.
Figure A-47 Trends in Persons with Disabilities, Ceres, 2012-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012-2020
87%
76%
90% 87%
13%
24%
10% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
With a disability
No disability
87% 87% 86% 86% 87% 87% 87% 87%
13% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
No disability
Disability
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-68 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-17 provides an overview of disability by type and age in Ceres during 2019. Ambulatory difficulty is the most widespread disability in Ceres (28 percent) with the highest concentration among persons 65 years of age and older. This reflects 7 percent of the total population in Ceres.
Self-care difficulty and vision difficulty were the least common disabilities in Ceres with 2 percent of the population experiencing these disabilities.
Table A-17 Disability Status by Age, Ceres, 2019
Disability Type Under 18 18-64 65 and
Over Total
Percent of
Population
with a
Disability
Percent of
Total
Population
Hearing Difficulty 156 479 905 1,540 14% 3%
Vision Difficulty 134 586 439 1,159 10% 2%
Cognitive Difficulty 360 1,272 617 2,249 20% 5%
Ambulatory Difficulty 128 1,417 1,595 3,140 28% 7%
Self-care Difficulty 73 367 593 1,033 9% 2%
Independent Living Difficulty 0 1,168 1,115 2,283 20% 5% Total 851 5,289 5,264 11,404 100% 24%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
State law also requires Housing Elements to examine the housing needs of people with developmental disabilities. Developmental disabilities are defined as severe, chronic, and attributed to a mental or physical impairment that begins before a person turns 18 years old. This can include Down’s Syndrome, autism, epilepsy, cerebral palsy, and mild to severe mental delays. Some people with developmental disabilities are unable to work, rely on Supplemental Security Income, and live with family members. In addition to their specific housing needs, they are at increased risk of housing insecurity after an aging parent or family member is no longer able to care for them.
The California Department of Developmental Services provides ZIP code level counts on populations with developmental disabilities based on age and residence type. Table A-18 reports the population with developmental disabilities by age in Ceres. Approximately 1,467 persons have a developmental disability in Ceres. Of these, 913 are children (I.e., under the age of 18) and 554 are adults (Table A-18).
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-69 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-18 Population with Developmental Disabilities by Age, Ceres, 2021 Age Group Number
Age Under 18 913
Age 18+ 554
SOURCE: California Department of Developmental Services, Consumer Count by California ZIP Code and Age Group (2021).
NOTE: Universe: Population with developmental disabilities. Notes: The California Department of Developmental Services is responsible for overseeing the coordination and delivery of services to more than 330,000 Californians with developmental disabilities including cerebral palsy, intellectual disability, Down syndrome, autism, epilepsy, and related conditions. The California Department of Developmental Services provides ZIP code level counts. To get jurisdiction-level estimates, ZIP code counts were crosswalked to jurisdictions using census block population counts from Census 2010 SF1 to determine the share of a ZIP code to assign to a given jurisdiction.
Table A-19 shows the population with developmental disabilities by residence in Ceres. The most common living arrangement for individuals with disabilities in Ceres is the home of parent/family/guardian followed by independent/supported living arrangements.
Table A-19 Population with Developmental Disabilities by Residence, Ceres, 2021 Residence Type Number
Home of Parent/Family/Guardian 1,318
Foster/Family Home <31
Independent/Supported Living 95
Other <33
Community Care Facility <34
Intermediate Care Facility 0
SOURCE: California Department of Developmental Services, Consumer Count by California ZIP Code and Residence Type (2021).
NOTE: Universe: Population with developmental disabilities. Notes: The California Department of Developmental Services is responsible for overseeing the coordination and delivery of services to more than 330,000 Californians with developmental disabilities including cerebral palsy, intellectual disability, Down syndrome, autism, epilepsy, and related conditions. The California Department of Developmental Services provides ZIP code level counts. To get jurisdiction-level estimates, ZIP code counts were crosswalked to jurisdictions using census block population counts from Census 2010 SF1 to determine the share of a ZIP code to assign to a given jurisdiction.
Resources
In the City of Ceres, the majority of the residents that have disabilities are between the ages of 18 and 64. As such, a variety of support services are needed to assist both the younger population with disabilities, and the middle-aged and older population of residents with disabilities. Housing and transportation costs may pose a challenge to residents with disabilities. The service organization listed in the “Seniors” section above includes several resources that accommodate seniors with disabilities.
The City’s Municipal Code establishes procedures for persons with disabilities seeking equal access to housing, including reasonable accommodation for persons with disabilities. Additionally, the City follows the requirements of California Building Code Title 24, which establishes provisions for
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-70 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 accessible building design. To further ensure adequate housing is available for persons with disabilities, the City has included the following programs, which are designed to better serve the needs of residents with disabilities within the City of Ceres:
Program 3.1: Housing Diversity;
Program 3.5: Affordable Housing for Persons with Developmental Disabilities; Program 3.8: Affordable Housing for Extremely Low-Income Housing Residents; Program 3.9: Accessible/Adaptable Units for Residents with Disabilities; Program 3.15: Reasonable Accommodation; and
Program 5.1: Fair Housing.
In addition to the efforts described above, the following regional service providers and programs area available to assist Ceres’ residents living with disabilities:
Stanislaus County Family Caregiver Support Program;
Stanislaus County BRIDGES Volunteer Driver Program;
Stanislaus County Health Services Agency;
Stanislaus County Department of Mental Health;
Disability Resource Agency for Independent Living (Modesto); Stanislaus County Regional Transit (StaRT) Dial-A-Ride; and Right At Home (Modesto).
Large Households
Large households are defined as households of five or more individuals. Large households often have different housing needs than smaller households. Household income and local housing markets can greatly impact a household’s ability to afford adequately sized housing. If a city’s rental housing stock does not include larger apartments, large households who rent could end up living in overcrowded conditions. Similarly, large households may experience overpayment as a result of a high housing market and limited availability.
Figure A-48 illustrates 2019 households by size and tenure in Ceres. Ceres has 3,168 large households, of which 59 percent are owner-occupied households and 41 percent are renter-occupied households. Owner-occupied households makeup the majority of all households by approximately 61 percent. This combined with 36 percent of all households experiencing some level of cost burden (Figure A-37), suggests it is likely that large households in Ceres may experience overcrowding and/or overpayment.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-71 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-48 Household Size by Tenure, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Resources
In Ceres, approximately 25 percent of households include five or more people. As later discussed in Section A.7 Housing Stock Characteristics, Ceres’ housing stock includes approximately 1,779 multi- family units. Of these, approximately 9 percent are five+ bedroom units.
Large households in the City of Ceres can benefit from general programs and services for lower and moderate-income persons, including the Stanislaus County Regional Housing Authority Housing Choice Voucher program, and various community and social services provided by non-profit organizations in the region. Beyond the general programs for lower-income households, the City has included Program 3.14 to encourage the development of family friendly affordable housing units (see Chapter 2). The City will work with non-profit affordable housing developers to encourage housing development that meets the needs of large households.
To ensure adequate housing is available for large families, the City has included the following programs:
Program 2.1: Preserve Mobile Home Parks;
Program 2.4: Preservation of Rental Housing;
Program 3.1: Housing Diversity;
Program 3.14: Family Friendly Housing;
Program 5.1: Fair Housing;
Program 5.2: Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) Program; and Program 5.3: First-Time Home Buyer Downpayment Assistance. 59%
70%
57% 57% 59%
41%
30%
43% 43% 41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 Person
Household
2 Person
Household
3 Person
Household
4 Person
Household
5 Or More
Person
Household
Owner Occupied
Renter Occupied
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-72 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Single-Parent Households
Households headed by one person are often at greater risk of housing insecurity, particularly female- headed family households, who may be supporting children or a family with only one income.
In Ceres, the largest proportion of households is married-couple family households at 56 percent, while female-headed households make up 19 percent and male-headed households make up 10 percent of all households (Figure A-8). Figure A-49 shows single-parent households in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. Compared to the County and nearby cities, Ceres’ ratio of single-parent households is on par. Although, Ceres does have a slightly higher percentage of male- headed family households.
Figure A-49 Single-Parent Households by Jurisdiction, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Over the last decade, both female-headed and male-headed family households have slightly increased in Ceres. Figure A-50 illustrates trends in single-parent households in Ceres between 2010- 2019.18 During this period, female-headed households climbed from 18 percent in 2010 to its highest at 20 percent in 2016. In 2017, the trend began to steadily fall reaching 18.5 percent by 2019; a 0.4 percentage point increase compared to 2010. Between 2010-2019, male-headed family households experienced a greater level of change than female-headed family households, increasing a total of 2.5 percentage points. However, female-headed family households (18.5 percent) remain more prominent than male-headed family households (9.7 percent) in Ceres.
18 The data reports female- and male-headed family household as a percentage of total households in Ceres.
66.2% 65.6% 68.0% 67.6%
33.8% 34.4% 32.0% 32.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus
County
Ceres Oakdale Turlock
Male-headed Family
Households
Female-Headed Family
Households
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-73 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-50 Trends in Single-Parent Households, Ceres, 2010-2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2019 NOTE: This table reports female- and male-headed family households as a percentage of total households in Ceres.
Female-headed family households with children may face particular housing challenges, with pervasive gender inequality resulting in lower wages for women. Moreover, the added need for childcare can make finding a home that is affordable more challenging. Figure A-51 illustrates female-headed family households by poverty status.
In 2019, there were 606 female-headed family households with children that fell in the Below Poverty Level category compared to 17 male-headed family households with children that fell in the Below Poverty Level category in Ceres.
Figure A-51 Female-Headed Family Households by Poverty Status, Ceres, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
984
743
606
73 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
with Children with No
Children
Female-Headed Family
Households
Below Poverty Level
Above Poverty Level
18.1% 18.0% 18.5% 19.3% 19.3% 18.4%
20.1% 19.7% 19.3% 18.5%
7.2% 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 8.6% 8.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.8% 9.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Female-Headed Family Households
Male-headed Family Households
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-74 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Resources
Limited household income constrains the ability of single-parent households to afford adequate housing, childcare, healthcare, and other necessities. The Ceres Healthy Start Family Resource Center located at 2491 Lawrence Street provides a range of services aimed at strengthening a household’s ability to access services and resources that support health, wellness, and education.
Services provided include but are not limited to: school readiness activities, parenting classes, support group, food and basic need referrals, healthcare assistance referral, access to mental health clinicians, free community health clinic, and free immigration consultation. Eligible individuals include insured or non-insured individuals including parents with children ages zero to five.
There are two head start programs located at 2003 Glenda Road in Ceres, including Migrant Early/Migrant-Seasonal Head Start Program and Regional Head Start Program. Migrant Early/Migrant-Seasonal Head Start Program provides childcare services for children ages six weeks through compulsory school age. Eligibility is determined according to migrant status, seasonal status, source of income, and income level. There is no cost for services. Regional Head Start Program provides childcare services for children ages three to five years of age. Eligibility is determined according to federal poverty guidelines. Children in foster care, homeless children, and children from families receiving public assistance are categorically eligible regardless of income.
Ceres Partnership, situated at 1317 Grandview Avenue in Ceres, is a program administered by the Center for Human Services. It offers a comprehensive array of services aimed at connecting families with vital resources within the community. With a particular emphasis on single-parent households, especially those headed by females, the organization tailors its services to meet the specific needs of this demographic. Services provided encompass a wide spectrum, including parent education, support groups, literacy and school readiness programs, classes and support for expectant mothers, child development screening, resource and referral services, utility assistance, nutrition classes, assistance with CalFresh applications, enrollment support for Medi-Cal and health insurance, translation services for Spanish-speaking clients, as well as job search and resume assistance.
In addition to the service organizations listed above, the following regional service providers and programs are available to assist Ceres’ single-parent households:
Housing Choice Voucher Program;
Project Sentinel: Fair Housing Center;
Stanislaus County Affordable Housing Corporation;
Samaritan House;
Redwood Family Center;
Stanislaus County Down-Payment Assistance Program; and Stanislaus County Regional Transit (StaRT) Dial-A-Ride.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-75 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Additionally, the City of Ceres has committed to enacting the following programs during the 6th Cycle:
Program 3.7: Low Barrier Navigation Centers;
Program 3.8: Affordable Housing for Extremely Low-Income Housing Residents; Program 3.14: Family Friendly Housing;
Program 5.1: Fair Housing;
Program 5.2: Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) Program; Program 5.3: First-Time Home Buyer Downpayment Assistance; and Program 5.5: Place-Based Strategies to Support Economic Mobility.
Farmworkers
Farmworkers are traditionally defined as people whose primary incomes are earned through permanent or seasonal agricultural labor. Farmworkers are generally considered to have special housing needs due to their limited income and the often unstable nature of their employment. In addition, farmworker households tend to have high rates of poverty, live disproportionately in housing that is in the poorest condition, have extremely high rates of overcrowding, and have low homeownership rates.
Figure A-52 shows hired farm labor in Stanislaus County between 2002-2017. According to the U.S.
Department of Agriculture Census of Agriculture, the number of permanent farmworkers (working 150 days or more per year) in Stanislaus County has decreased since 2002 (7,220), totaling 6,284 in 2017. Similarly, the number of seasonal farmworkers (working less than 150 days per year) has also decreased since 2002 (12,073), totaling 6,429 in 2017.
Figure A-52 Hired Farm Labor by County, Stanislaus County, 2002-2017 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Census of Farmworkers (2002, 2007, 2012, 2017), Table 7: Hired Farm Labor.
NOTES: Universe: Hired farm workers (including direct hires and agricultural service workers who are often hired through labor contractors). Farm workers are considered seasonal if they work on a farm less than 150 days in a year, while farm workers who work on a farm more than 150 days are considered to be permanent workers for that farm.
7,220
12,073
6,258
9,691
5,928
8,729
6,284 6,429
0 2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Permanent Seasonal
Farm Workers
2002 2007 2012 2017
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-76 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 According to the City’s General Plan, there are approximately 700 acres of agricultural land within City’s Planning Area. However, not all of the land is active farm land and only 4 percent of the City’s employment is for Agriculture and Natural Resources. Nonetheless, Ceres shares the responsibility for farmworker housing as farmworkers may live within 75 miles of agricultural land uses (including dairy, vineyards and produce) and the City is within 75 miles of these uses.
The California Institute for Rural Studies released a Farmworker Housing Study and Action Plan for Salinas Valley and Pajaro Valley in April 2018. While the Study was conducted in a different region outside of Stanislaus County, some of the key findings (that may still be relevant to farmworkers in other jurisdictions throughout the State of California) of the Study included:
A survey of 420 farmworkers in the labor shed as well as interviews with employers and other stakeholders was conducted to gather primary data. Among the farmworkers surveyed, men and women were relatively evenly distributed across age groups with 75 percent of the interviewees married. The clear majority of the immigrant farmworker interviewees had very few years of schooling. They were 92 percent immigrants (not born in the U.S.); Most households of farmworkers interviewed included non-family members who were for the most part other farmworkers. There are consistently stunningly high rates of residences that are above the severely crowded condition of 2.0 people per room. This is true of almost all the subgroups of the population. Often more than 5 people per bathroom; About 40 percent of respondents live in houses, 30 percent in apartments. Another 19 percent live in rented rooms without kitchens – either in houses or apartments. Another 12 percent live in “other” types of dwellings. Eighty-nine percent of farmworkers were renters and 11 percent owners. Of those who reported as owners, a quarter owns mobile homes; and Other characteristics of those interviewed included:
Most have only completed primary school;
Wages ranged from a median of $12.79 per hour, mean of $13.64, with median annual income of $25,000;
The majority do not work all year in agriculture – 7.5 months is the median; 44 percent of migrants work all year, 20 percent of non-migrants work year-round; Average age at arrival is about 20;
Median number of years in the US is 15 years;
Median age was 37;
Median number of years with current employer is 4 years; a quarter worked for their employer for 8 years or more;
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-77 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Two-thirds are from four states in Mexico:
Oaxaca 21 percent;
Michoacan 19 percent;
Jalisco 14 percent;
Guanajuato 10 percent;
13 percent self-identified as indigenous Mixtec, Triqui, Zapotec; They work in a range of crops throughout the region;
46 percent participate in harvest;
16 percent are packers;
38 percent participate in all other farm-related tasks such as:
Weeding;
Irrigating;
Thinning;
Pruning;
Loading;
Driving; and
Operating machines.
The farmworker housing demand model developed as part of the study calculates the total housing units needed of all types, based on target People Per Dwelling (PPD), and total permanent affordable farmworker housing based on the current rate that farmworkers access subsidized housing. Key findings of the demand model were:
An additional 33,159 units of farmworker housing are needed to alleviate critical overcrowding in farmworker households that are occupied at 7.00 PPD to the average PPD of 3.11 in Stanislaus County and the average PPD 3.21 in San Joaquin County; A total of 4,393 units of permanent affordable farmworker housing are needed to maintain the present “access rate” of 7.6 percent of farmworkers to subsidized housing; and The data from this study indicate an overwhelming need for affordable permanent year-round family housing.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-78 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Resources
In an effort to provide farmworker housing to address the needs in the region, the Stanislaus County Housing Authority is currently under contract with the Office of Migrant Services (OMS) to operate four (4) migrant farmworker housing centers with locations in Watsonville, Patterson, Empire, and Westley. Among the four (4) migrant farmworker housing centers, approximately 318 units are provided as affordable, seasonal rental housing for migrant farmworker families. The housing centers operate for 180 days each year, and may provide season extensions pending approval by OMS. The units range in size and price from 1-bedroom ($11/day) to 4-bedroom units ($12.50/day). A security deposit of $100 is required, and all utilities are included in the rental rate.
The Stanislaus Housing Authority also administers farmworker housing in Ceres through the Ceres Farm Labor Center.
To enable the development of housing types suitable for lower-income households, including farmworkers, the City will implement the following programs (see Chapter 2):
Program 1.9: Changes to the Zoning Code (permit SROs and mobile/manufactured housing); Program 3.4: Temporary/Seasonal Farmworker Housing;
Program 3.8: Affordable Housing for Extremely Low-Income Housing Residents; Program 3.11: Employee Housing; and
Program 3.14: Family Friending Housing.
In addition to the City’s efforts to enable housing for lower-income households, including farmworkers, the following regional service providers and programs are available to assist farm- worker households within the greater Stanislaus County region:
Spanish Farmworkers Resource Line;
The Office of Migrant Services;
California Rural Legal Assistance;
Central Valley Opportunity Center; and
Farm and Food Worker Relief Grant Program.
The City of Ceres is aware of the Statewide Farmworker Housing Needs Survey that HCD launched in compliance with the requirements of AB 1654 (Rivas, Chapter 638, Statutes of 2022), and as more information becomes available regarding farmworker housing needs, the City will update the policies and programs to further accommodate the needs of farmworkers in jurisdictions within 75 miles of the City limits.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-79 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Persons Experiencing Homelessness
Homelessness remains an urgent challenge in many communities across the state, reflecting a range of social, economic, and psychological factors. Rising housing costs result in increased risks of community members experiencing homelessness. Addressing the specific housing needs for the unhoused population remains a priority throughout the region, particularly since homelessness is disproportionately experienced by people of color, people with disabilities, those struggling with addiction and those dealing with traumatic life circumstances.
Table A-20 reports homeless persons in Stanislaus County, Ceres, Oakdale, and Turlock between 2018-2023. According to the 2023 Stanislaus County Point-In-Time Homeless Count, the region experienced a steady increase in homeless persons between 2019 to 2021. In 2022, the number of homeless persons decreased by approximately 37 percent. By 2023, the number of homeless persons increased by 12 percent reaching 2,091 persons.
Table A-20 Homeless Population, 2018-2023
Jurisdiction
Sheltered/Unsheltered Population
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Stanislaus
County 1,356 1,923 2,107 2,927 1,857 2,091
Ceres 7 24 29 - 15 17
Oakdale 28 43 36 - 26 22
Turlock 155 247 232 - 211 233
SOURCE: Stanislaus County Point-in-Time (PIT) Homeless Count, 2018-2023 Similar to the County, the number of homeless persons in Ceres also increased between 2018 to 2020 before decreasing in 2022. According to the 2023 Stanislaus County PIT Count, Ceres has 17 homeless persons. Comparatively, this is much lower than nearby cities in the region.
Table A-21 shows homelessness by household type and shelter status in Stanislaus County in 2022.
In Stanislaus County, the most common type of household experiencing homelessness are those without children in their care. Among households experiencing homelessness that do not have children, 60 percent are unsheltered. Conversely, the majority of homeless households with children are in emergency shelters (64 percent).
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-80 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-21 Homelessness by Household Type and Shelter Status, Stanislaus County, 2022 Type of Shelter
People in
Households
Composed Solely
of Children
Under 18
People in
Households with
Adults and Children
People in
Households without
Children Under 18 Total
Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent
Sheltered –
Emergency Shelter 0 0% 63 64% 494 33% 557
Sheltered –
Transitional
Housing
0 0% 33 34% 106 7% 139
Unsheltered 1 100% 2 2% 908 60% 911
Total 1 100% 98 100% 1,508 100% 1,607
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Continuum of Care (CoC) Homeless Populations and Subpopulations Reports (2022).
NOTES: Universe: Population experiencing homelessness. This data is based on Point-in-Time (PIT) information provided to HUD by CoCs in the application for CoC Homeless Assistance Programs. The PIT Count provides a count of sheltered and unsheltered homeless persons on a single night during the last ten days in January. Each County is its own CoC, and so the data for this table is provided at the county-level. Per HCD’s requirements, jurisdictions will need to supplement this county-level data with local estimates of people experiencing homelessness.
Resources
According to PIT counts dating back to 2018, Ceres has had a relatively low number of persons experiencing homelessness within the city compared to nearby jurisdictions. As a result, most resources for the homeless population are provided at the county level. However, access to transportation, public services, and resources in Ceres may present a challenge to the those experiencing homelessness, despite the limited need.
Stanislaus Regional Transit Authority (StanRTA) operates five bus routes that provide service from Ceres to Modesto, Patterson, Hughson, Keyes, and Turlock. In total, there are 13 bus stops located throughout Ceres providing adequate public transportation opportunities. Local knowledge and data indicate persons experiencing homelessness in Ceres are typically located near the city’s urbanized core.
Currently, there is no emergency shelter within the city limits of Ceres. Nevertheless, neighboring cities such as Modesto and Turlock offer several temporary shelters designed to support homeless individuals and low-income persons with special needs. To facilitate the development of emergency shelters in Ceres, an analysis of potential sites suitable for their development has been included in Appendix B of this Housing Element. Five potential sites within the M-1, H-1, and PC Zones were examined for their suitability to accommodate emergency shelters, with each capable of providing a minimum of 30 beds if developed for this purpose. For a comprehensive discussion, please refer to Appendix B.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-81 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 The City will implement Program 3.10 (Emergency Shelters for Homeless Individuals) to identify and designate appropriate receiving sites for emergency shelters within the city limits. Additionally, Program 1.9 (Changes to the Zoning Code) will be implemented to amend the Zoning Code to permit emergency shelters in conformance with state law.
In addition to the City’s actions to enable the development of emergency shelters, the following regional facilities offer supportive housing services in Stanislaus County for homeless and special needs low-income persons:
Children’s Crisis Center – Marsha’s House: Ceres;
Modesto Women’s Mission: 1400 East Yosemite Boulevard, Modesto; Stanislaus County Habitat for Humanity: 630 Kearney Avenue, Modesto; Hutton House: 201 Jennie Street, Modesto;
Haven Women’s Center of Stanislaus: 301 Starr Avenue, Turlock; HOST House: 1010 10th Street, Modesto;
We Care Program: 221 S Broadway, Turlock; and
The Salvation Army Shelter: 320 9th Street, Modesto.
Limited English Proficiency
California has long been an immigration gateway to the United States, which means that many languages are spoken throughout the region and beyond. Since learning a new language is universally challenging, it is not uncommon for residents who have immigrated to the United States to have limited English proficiency. This limit can lead to additional disparities if there is a disruption in housing, such as an eviction, because residents might not be aware of their rights or they might be wary to engage due to immigration status concerns.
Figure A-53 illustrates the population with limited English proficiency in Ceres compared to the County. In Ceres, 13 percent of residents five (5) years and older identify as speaking English not well or not at all, which is 3 percent higher than the proportion for Stanislaus County (10 percent).
This in tandem with a 61 percent Hispanic or Latino population, indicates a need for the prioritization of language translation services for all outreach including fair housing resources and education.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-82 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-53 Population with Limited English Proficiency, 2019 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
NOTE: Universe: Population 5 years and over.
In an effort to affirmatively further fair housing, the City has developed Program 5.1 which states all fair housing resources, including the fair housing complaint referral process be provided in both English and Spanish. Full program details can be found in Chapter 2.
Resources
The City is committed to ensuring all residents have equal accessibility to housing assistance and resources. The City provides translation services at public meetings and provides bi-lingual engagement materials for City events. In an effort to affirmatively further fair housing, this 6 th Cycle
Housing Element contains Program 5.1, which states all fair housing resources including the fair housing complaint referral process be provided in both English and Spanish (see Chapter 2).
A.6 Access to Opportunity
This section discusses disparities in access to opportunity among protected classes including access to quality education, employment, transportation, and environment. The California Tax Credit Allocation Committee (TCAC) in collaboration with HCD developed a series of opportunity maps that help to identify areas of the community with good or poor access to opportunity for residents.
These maps were developed to align funding allocations with the goal of improving outcomes for low-income residents—particularly children.
10% 13%
90% 87%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stanislaus County Ceres
Population 5 Years and Over
Who Speak English "Well" or
"Very well"
Population 5 Years and Over
Who Speak English "Not well"
or "Not at all"
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-83 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Access to Opportunity
“Access to opportunity is a concept to approximate place-based characteristics linked to critical life outcomes. Access to opportunity oftentimes means both improving the quality of life for residents of low-income communities, as well as supporting mobility and access to ‘high resource’ neighborhoods. This encompasses education, employment, economic development, safe and decent housing, low rates of violent crime, transportation, and other opportunities, including recreation, food and healthy environment (air, water, safe neighborhood, safety from environmental hazards, social services, and cultural institutions).” SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development Guidance, 2021, page 34.
The opportunity maps highlight areas of highest resource, high resource, moderate resource, low resource and high segregation and poverty. TCAC provides opportunity maps for access to opportunity in quality education, employment, transportation, and environment. Opportunity scores are presented on a scale from zero to one and the higher the number, the more positive the outcomes.
Disparities in Access to Opportunity
Figure A-54 illustrates TCAC Opportunity areas across the region. The majority of Ceres is considered a low resource area as is much of central Stanislaus County. One area in the eastern region of the City is categorized as a moderate resource area, and one area in the southwestern region of the City is categorized as a high resource area. It is worth noting that the area categorized as high resource also shows concentrations of households earning less than the City’s median household income ($58,667) and the area categorized as moderate resource shows concentrations of households earning more than the City’s median household income (Figure A-13).
While there are no census tracts in Ceres designated as high segregation and poverty, just north of the City boundaries there are census tracts designated as high segregation and poverty.
Economic
TCAC’s economic opportunity score is comprised of poverty, adult educational attainment, employment, job proximity, and median home value. Figure A-55 illustrates economic opportunity across the region based on the TCAC Economic Opportunity Map. According to the California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer, all areas of Ceres have a low to moderate economic opportunity score of 0.25-0.75. This reflects a low to moderate level of opportunity for economic advancement for residents in Ceres. In the eastern region of the City, there is one area that has a score of 0.75-1.0, reflecting more positive economic outcomes. This area also shows concentrations of households earning more than the City’s median household income.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-84 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-54 TCAC Opportunity Composite Score, Ceres, 2022 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-85 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-55 TCAC Opportunity Economic Score, Ceres, 2022 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-86 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Education
TCAC’s education score is based on math proficiency, reading proficiency, high school graduation rates, and the student poverty rate. Opportunity scores are presented on a scale from zero to one and the higher the number, the more positive the outcomes. Figure A-56 illustrates educational opportunity based on the TCAC Educational Opportunity Map. According to TCAC’s Educational Opportunity Map, the majority of Ceres scores less than 0.25 indicating a low level of positive educational outcomes. However, a few areas in the eastern region of the City show slightly higher concentrations of positive educational outcomes ranging between 0.25-0.5, and one area in the southwestern region scores between 0.75-1.0 indicating a high positive educational outcome. This aligns with Figure A-54 showing concentrations of higher and lower TCAC composite scores for these divergent areas.
The City of Ceres is served by the Ceres Unified School District (CUSD), along with a variety of elementary, middle, and high schools within the City of Ceres. Despite the TCAC/HCD educational outcome data, the City of Ceres Unified School District (CUSD) reported a 91.8 percent graduation rate among all students in the district for 2022, which is higher than the statewide average (87.4 percent),
19 indicating positive educational outcomes.
When broken down by race/ethnicity, African-American and Asian students graduated at a slightly higher rate (100 percent and 94.2 percent, respectively) than other students, although graduation rates are very high across races and ethnicities: Hispanic and White students’ graduation rates were
92.3 percent and 85.3 percent, respectively. There is no data available for the graduation rates of American Indian, Filipino, and Pacific Islander students, as less than 10 students from each respective group within the CUSD graduated. The lowest graduation rate was among students with a disability at 72.2 percent.
19 https://www.caschooldashboard.org/reports/50710430000000/2022/academic -engagement#graduation-rate
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-87 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-56 TCAC Opportunity Education Score, Ceres, 2022 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-88 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Environmental Justice and Disadvantaged Communities
The California Health and Safety Code Section 39711 defines a disadvantaged community as:
1. Areas disproportionately affected by environmental pollution and other hazards that can lead to negative public health effects, exposure, or environmental degradation; or
2. Areas with concentrations of people that are of low income, high unemployment, low levels of homeownership, high rent burden, sensitive populations, or low levels of educational attainment.
The California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA) identified 10 census tracts in Ceres as disadvantaged communities. The primary factors affecting these disadvantaged communities are high levels of fine particulate matter, ozone pollution, and contaminated drinking water. 20 The TCAC Opportunity Areas Environmental scores are based on the CalEnviroScreen 4.0 indicators, which identify areas disproportionately vulnerable to pollution sources such as ozone, PM2.5, diesel PM, pesticides, toxic release, traffic, cleanup sites, groundwater threats, hazardous waste, impaired water bodies, and solid waste sites.
Figure A-57 illustrates environmental pollution estimates based on the TCAC Environmental Opportunity Map. Ceres scores moderate to high in terms of pollution burden with varying concentrations across the City. The City has areas scoring in a range of less than 0.25 (less positive outcomes) to 0.75 (more positive outcomes). The majority of the City falls within the 0.25-0.5 range, indicating high levels of environmental pollution burden. One area in Ceres has a concentration of lower levels of environmental pollution burden in the 0.5-0.75 range, located in a northeastern pocket of the City.
The City has identified a number of policies and programs in the Ceres General Plan 2035 to address environmental justice within the disadvantaged communities. For more in-depth information regarding disadvantaged communities in Ceres, refer to the Ceres General Plan 2035.
Vulnerability
The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) provided by the Center for Disease Control (CDC)—ranks census tracts based on their ability to respond to a disaster—includes four themes of socioeconomic status, household composition, race or ethnicity, and housing and transportation. Figure A-58 illustrates social vulnerability across the region based on the SVI. Ceres scores high on the SVI (between 0.25-0.7501) indicating that the City is highly vulnerable to disasters, and ill equipped to respond to them. Concentrations of highest vulnerability are primarily located along the western perimeter and southern regions of the City.
20 Ceres General Plan 2035, page 5-10.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-89 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-57 TCAC Opportunity Environmental Score, Ceres, 2022 SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development AFFH Data Viewer
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-90 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-58 Social Vulnerability Index, Ceres, 2018
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development Guidance, 2021, page 36.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-91 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Disparities Specific to the Population Living with a Disability In Ceres, 24 percent of the population is living with at least one disability, compared to 13 percent in the County. The most common disabilities in the City are ambulatory difficulty (7 percent), cognitive difficulty (5 percent), and independent living difficulty (5 percent).
Disparities in Access to Affordable Housing
Another area where individuals pertaining to special needs groups experience disparities is in access to adequate and affordable housing supply, and available transportation. In general, special needs groups such as Seniors, ELI residents, residents with disabilities, and other special needs groups are the most vulnerable to the impacts of lack of housing opportunities and adequate transit.
In Ceres, the populations most impacted by disparities in access to affordable housing include:
Seniors, ELI residents, residents that belong to minority ethnic and/or racial groups, residents with disabilities, and farmworkers. The City has encountered a 32 percent increase in housing prices over the past three years, jumping from $325,586 in 2019 to $429,471 in 2021. As a result, Ceres’ residents from minority ethnic and racial backgrounds experience high levels of disparity with respect to homeownership. Sixty-two (62) percent of Black and African-American residents in the City are renters. Comparatively, 67 percent of the City’s White population are homeowners (for in- depth analysis on housing tenure by race and ethnicity, refer to Figure A-61).
In Ceres, ELI residents also face hardships in obtaining affordable housing and becoming homeowners. Table A-25 shows that the majority of the City’s renters fall within the Low-Income and below categories, and only 25 percent of the City’s renters earn income that would be considered Above-Moderate. Conversely, the majority (52 percent) of the City’s homeowners earn an income that is Above-Moderate.
Seniors and Farmworkers within the City of Ceres are also vulnerable to housing disparities. Out of the City’s Senior population, most of them earn between $10,000 and $19,999 on an annual basis (refer to Figure A-34). Table A-29 shows that Ceres Christian Terrace (a HUD subsidized affordable housing apartment community for Seniors) and the Ceres Farm Labor Center FLC (a HUD subsidized affordable housing apartment community for Farmworkers) are at-risk of conversion to market-rate units.
In an effort to address the disparities in access to affordable housing that the City’s special needs residents are facing, the City of Ceres will enact the following programs (for a full list of programs, refer to Chapter 2 of the Housing Element):
Program 2.1: Preserve Mobile Home Parks;
Program 2.4: Preservation of Rental Housing;
Program 3.1: Housing Diversity;
Program 3.3: Housing Assistance for Senior Residents;
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-92 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Program 3.4: Temporary/Seasonal Farmworker Housing;
Program 3.6: Support to Address Regional Homeless Needs; Program 3.7: Low-Barrier Navigation Centers;
Program 3.8: Affordable Housing for Extremely Low-Income Housing Residents; Program 5.1: Fair Housing;
Program 5.2: Housing Choice Voucher Program;
Program 5.3: First-Time Home Buyer Downpayment Assistance; and Program 5.5: Place-Based Strategies to Support Economic Mobility.
Disparities in Access to Transportation
In 2021, the City of Ceres collaborated with members of the City’s Active Transportation Advisory Committee and other community stakeholders to publish the Ceres Citywide Active Transportation Plan (CATP). The CATP highlights the needs of disadvantaged communities within the City – with the understanding that disadvantaged communities may face unique disparities in access to adequate transportation. As stated in the CATP, the City’s disadvantaged communities are primarily located within “southern and western Ceres – south of Whitmore Avenue and west of Central Avenue.” 21 This also includes older neighborhoods directly adjacent to SR-99 as well as unincorporated islands within Ceres’ Sphere of Influence (SOI).
To meet the transportation needs of the City’s disadvantaged communities, the City has proposed to undertake the following programmatic actions:
Promote Walkability and Active Transportation (Program 2.7 of the Housing Element); Apply for funding from the California Sustainable Transportation Planning Grant Program; Coordinate between transit routes and active transportation infrastructure; Enhance sidewalks, crosswalks, and bikeways; and
Improve first/last-mile commutes and expand connectivity.
A.7 Housing Stock Characteristics
Ceres’ housing stock is defined as all housing units within its jurisdiction. Characteristics of housing stock include housing type, age, condition, tenure, vacancy rates, costs, affordability, and growth.
The following section provides an in-depth analysis of the housing stock in Ceres to determine whether the current the housing stock meets the needs of existing and future residents.
21 The City of Ceres, Ceres Citywide Active Transportation Plan (2021).
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-93 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Housing Growth
Table A-22 provides an overview of housing growth trends between 2010-2019 in Ceres, the County, and neighboring cities. Between 2010-2019, Ceres housing unit estimates declined approximately 4 percent, whereas the County and surrounding cities experienced growth in housing units. These estimates show the majority of housing decline in Ceres occurred between 2015-2019 (-3 percent). It is important to note that these are only estimates and may include sampling errors.
Table A-22 Housing Unit Growth Trends by Jurisdiction, 2010-2019 Jurisdiction 2010 2015 2019 Percent Change
2010-2015
Percent Change
2015-2019
Stanislaus County 177,591 180,169 181,748 1% 1%
Ceres 13,871 13,741 13,393 -1% -3%
Oakdale 7,441 7,681 8,314 3% 8%
Turlock 24,699 25,350 26,099 3% 3%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2019 Housing Type
Table A-23 provides a comparison of housing unit types in Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. In Ceres, single-family detached homes are the most common housing type (79 percent) followed by multifamily units (13 percent). Similarly, the County’s most common housing type is single-family detached units (76 percent) followed by multifamily (16 percent). Overall, Ceres has the highest percentage of single-family detached units compared to the County and nearby cities.
Table A-23 Housing Units by Type by Jurisdiction, 2019
Jurisdiction
Single-Family
Detached
Single-
Family
Attached
Multifamily Mobile
Homes Total Units
Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Stanislaus County 137,469 76% 6,443 4% 29,661 16% 7,858 4% 181,431 Ceres 10,639 79% 428 3% 1,779 13% 467 4% 13,313
Oakdale 6,362 77% 344 4% 1,275 9% 333 4% 8,314
Turlock 17,589 67% 1,015 4% 6,732 26% 731 3% 26,067
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
NOTE: Table indicates total housing units.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-94 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-59 illustrates a comparison of housing type trends in Ceres for 2010, 2015, and 2019. In all three years, single-family detached homes have remained the primary housing type at an average of 77 percent. Multifamily housing (5+ units) has been the second most popular housing type (9 percent). Mobile homes and single-family attached homes have remained the least common housing types in Ceres.
Figure A-59 Housing by Type, Ceres, 2010, 2015, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2019 Housing Availability and Tenure
Housing tenure refers to individuals who own or rent a housing unit. The number of residents who own their homes compared to those who rent their homes can help identify the level of housing insecurity (i.e., ability for individuals to stay in their homes) in a city and region. Generally, renters may be displaced more quickly if prices increase. Additionally, housing tenure may be an indicator of housing affordability (i.e., if the local housing market has high barriers to entry, there may be more renter households than owner households).
Figure A-60 illustrates housing tenure in Ceres between 2010 and 2021. As shown, housing tenure in Ceres has remained largely dominated by owner-occupied households, averaging 61 percent during this period. Whereas, renter-occupied households average 39 percent between 2010 and 2021. This is largely impacted by favorable market conditions in Ceres, which have resulted in naturally occurring affordable housing.
76%
5% 5%
9%
5%
77%
5% 5%
9%
4%
79%
3% 4%
9%
4%
0%
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30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Single-Family
Home: Detached
Single-Family
Home: Attached
Multifamily
Housing: Two to
Four Units
Multifamily
Housing: Five-
plus Units
Mobile Homes
2010
2015
2019
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-95 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-60 Housing Tenure, Ceres, 2010-2021
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2010-2021 In Ceres, the housing stock includes 7,945 owner-occupied housing units and 5,030 renter-occupied housing units (Table A-24). When analyzing housing unit type in tandem with tenure, the majority of all housing units are single-family detached units (79 percent), of which 27 percent are renter- occupied and 71 percent are owner-occupied (Table A-23).
Table A-24 Housing Units by Type and Tenure, Ceres, 2019 Tenure
Single-
Family
Detached
Single-
Family
Attached
Multifamily Mobile
Homes Total Units
Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Renter-
Occupied 2,892 58% 372 7% 1,626 32% 140 3% 5,030
Owner-
Occupied 7,516 95% 56 1% 13 0.2% 360 5% 7,945
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
NOTE: Table indicates total occupied housing units.
Table A-25 reports household tenure by income level in Ceres. The largest proportion of both renters (25 percent) and homeowners (52 percent) fall in the Greater than 100 percent of AMI group. However, lower-income renters as a whole (0-80 percent of AMI), makeup 63 percent of renter households.
67% 64% 63% 61% 58% 58% 60% 60% 60% 61% 60% 60%
33% 36% 37% 39% 42% 42% 40% 40% 40% 39% 40% 40%
0%
10%
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30%
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100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-96 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-25 Household Tenure by Income Level, Ceres, 2015-2019 Tenure
0-30
Percent AMI
31-50
Percent AMI
51-80
Percent AMI
81-100
Percent AMI
Greater than 100
Percent AMI
Count % Count % Count % Count % Count %
Renter-Occupied 1,000 20% 1,070 21% 1,130 22% 570 11% 1,265 25% Owner-Occupied 455 6% 710 9% 1,700 21% 910 11% 4,170 52% SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Table A-26 provides an overview of household size by tenure for Ceres, the County, and nearby comparable cities. In Ceres, the average household size is 3.7, of which renter-households account for the largest households (3.74 persons/unit). An average household size of 3.74 suggests a need for more large housing units. This aligns with 56 percent of Ceres’ households being comprised of married-couple family households (Figure A-8). Compared to the County and nearby cities, Ceres has the highest average household size (3.7 persons/unit). The County also has a high average household size of 3.1 suggesting a need for large housing units and even a need for smaller independent units such as accessory dwelling units and junior accessory dwelling units (ADUs/JADUs) for extended family, etc.
Table A-26 Household Size by Tenure by Jurisdiction, 2019 Jurisdiction Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Average Household Size Stanislaus County 3.07 3.12 3.1
Ceres 3.61 3.74 3.7
Oakdale 2.95 2.85 3.0
Turlock 2.97 2.76 2.9
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Figure A-61 illustrates 2019 household tenure by race in Ceres. Tenure by race varies substantially in Ceres. The majority of all households are owner-occupied, of which Black or African American households have the lowest rate of ownership (38 percent) and highest rate or renting (62 percent).
Hispanic and Latino households makeup the majority of Ceres households (61 percent), yet the homeownership rate is 58 percent compared to non-Hispanic White households at 67 percent homeownership comprising 24 percent of the population.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Figure A-61 Household Tenure by Race, Ceres, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Figure A-62 illustrates 2019 vacancy rates in Ceres, the County and nearby comparable cities. Ceres has the lowest vacancy rate of the nearby cities at 3 percent, one point below the County (4 percent).
At 6 percent, the City of Oakdale has the highest vacancy rate, three points above Ceres.
Figure A-62 Vacancy Rates by Jurisdiction, 2019
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Table A-27 shows vacant housing units by type. Compared to the County and nearby cities, Ceres has the lowest vacancy rate at 3 percent. Of the vacant units in Ceres, 27 percent are sold but not occupied, and 26 percent are available for rent. The availability of housing compounded with a need in the region, suggests a mismatch of housing need in some proportion (i.e., affordability, size, etc.).
4.3%
3.1%
6.1%
3.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Stanislaus County Ceres Oakdale Turlock
American
Indian or
Alaska
Native
(Hispanic
and Non-
Hispanic)
Asian alone
Native
Hawaian
and Other
Pacific
Islander
Black or
African
American
(Hispanic
and Non-
Hispanic)
Hispanic or
Latino
Some Other
Race/Multi
ple Races
White
(Hispanic
and Non-
Hispanic)
White, Non-
Hispanic
Renter Occupied 35% 33% 45% 62% 42% 31% 40% 33%
Owner Occupied 65% 67% 55% 38% 58% 69% 60% 67%
65% 67% 55%
38%
58% 69% 60% 67%
35% 33% 45%
62%
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-27 Vacant Housing Units by Type, Ceres, 2019
Housing Unit Type Estimate Percentage
For rent 109 26%
Rented, not occupied 29 7%
For sale only 40 10%
Sold, not occupied 113 27%
For season, recreations, or occasional use 6 1%
For migrant workers 0 0%
Other vacant 121 29%
Total 418 100%
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimate, 2019
Table A-28 shows housing permits issued between 2015-2021 by the City of Ceres according to income group. Ceres’ 5th Cycle RHNA was 2,571 housing units. Between 2015 and 2021, permits were issued for 79 housing units in Ceres, 3 percent of the RHNA. Of those, 71 were for above moderate-income housing, 7 were for moderate-income housing, and one (1) was for low-income housing.
Table A-28 Housing Permits by Income Group, Ceres, 2015-2020 Income Group Number Percent of 5th Cycle RHNA Met
(2,571)
Very Low-Income Permits 0 0.0%
Low-Income Permits 1 0.03%
Moderate-Income Permits 7 0.27%
Above Moderate-Income Permits 71 2.7%%
Total 79 3%
SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), 5th Cycle Annual Progress Report Permit Summary (2022).
NOTE: Universe: Housing permits issued between 2015 and 2020. Notes: HCD uses the following definitions for the four income categories: Very Low Income: units affordable to households making less than 50 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located. Low Income: units affordable to households making between 50 percent and 80 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located. Moderate Income: units affordable to households making between 80 percent and 120 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located. Above Moderate Income: units affordable to households making above 120 percent of the Area Median Income for the county in which the jurisdiction is located.
Assisted Housing Developments At-Risk of Conversion
While there is an immense need to produce new affordable housing units, ensuring that the existing affordable housing stock remains affordable is equally important. Additionally, it is typically faster and less expensive to preserve currently affordable units that are at risk of converting to market-rate than it is to build new affordable housing.
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Appendix A – Housing Needs & Fair Housing Report A-99 EMC Planning Group Inc.
City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Table A-29 summarizes assisted units at-risk in Ceres. The data in the table below comes from the California Housing Partnership’s Preservation Database, the state’s most comprehensive source of information on subsidized affordable housing at risk of losing its affordable status and converting to market-rate housing.
22 According to the California Housing Partnership, there are 352 assisted multifamily rental units in Ceres. Of the 352 units, 67 are at moderate risk of converting to market- rate by the year 2029.
Table A-29 Assisted Units At-Risk of Conversion
Development Address Affordable
Units
Estimated Affordability
End Year Risk Level
Almond Terrace Apartments 2004 Evans Rd,
Ceres, CA 95307 45 2057 Low
Ceres Christian Terrace 1859 Richard Way,
Ceres, CA 95307 67 2029 Moderate
Casa Grande Apartments
3100 E. Whitmore
Ave, Ceres, CA
95307
99 2068 Low
Whitmore Oaks Apartments 2617 Blaker Rd,
Ceres, CA 95307 52 2057 Low
River Crest 2809 Della Dr,
Ceres, CA 95307 35 2059 Low
Ceres Farm Labor Center FLC 2100 Glenda Rd,
Ceres, CA 95307 54 2053 Low
Total 352
SOURCE: California Housing Partnership, Preservation Database (2020).
NOTE: Universe: HUD, Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC), USDA, and CalHFA projects. Subsidized or assisted developments that do not have one of the aforementioned financing sources may not be included. While California Housing Partnership’s Preservation Database is the state’s most comprehensive source of information on subsidized affordable housing at risk of losing its affordable status and converting to market-rate housing, this database does not include all deed-restricted affordable units in the state. Consequently, there may be at-risk assisted units in a jurisdiction that are not captured in this data table. Per HCD guidance, local jurisdictions must also list the specific affordable housing developments at-risk of converting to market rate uses. This document provides aggregate numbers of at-risk units for each jurisdiction, but local planning staff should contact Danielle Mazzella with the California Housing Partnership at [email protected] to obtain a list of affordable properties that fall under this designation. California Housing Partnership uses the following categories for assisted housing developments in its database: Very-High Risk: affordable homes that are at-risk of converting to market rate within the next year that do not have a known overlapping subsidy that would extend affordability and are not owned by a large/stable non-profit, mission-driven developer. High Risk: affordable homes that are at-risk of converting to market rate in the next 1-5 years that do not have a known overlapping subsidy that would extend affordability and are not owned by a large/stable non-profit, mission-driven developer. Moderate Risk: affordable homes that are at-risk of converting to market rate in the next 5-10 years that do not have a known overlapping subsidy that would extend affordability and are not owned by a large/stable non-profit, mission-driven developer. Low Risk: affordable homes that are at-risk of converting to market rate in 10+ years and/or are owned by a large/stable non-profit, mission-driven developer.
22 This database does not include all deed-restricted affordable units in the state, so there may be at-risk assisted units in a jurisdiction that are not captured in this data table.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Ceres Christian Terrace is a HUD subsidized affordable housing apartment community that includes 67 deed-restricted affordable units. The estimated affordability end date is July 31, 2029, which indicates a moderate level of risk of converting to market rate. The City will coordinate with HUD to determine if deed-restrictions are intended to be extended for the 67 units. If necessary, the City will identify potential buyers of the at-risk project, such as the Housing Authority of Stanislaus County or a local non-profit organization, as well as potential funding sources. As outlined in Program 2.4, the City is prepared to take the necessary actions to preserve at-risk affordable units (see Chapter 2). The City is actively identifying other parcels throughout the City that can accommodate low-income affordable units. The City will partner with the Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority to ensure efforts to provide affordable are continuous throughout the housing cycle.
To maintain the existing affordable housing stock, the City can preserve existing affordable units and facilitate the development of new units. Depending on the circumstances of at-risk projects, different options may be used to preserve or replace the units. Preservation options to ensure the viability and ongoing supply of affordable units typically include: 1) construction of replacement units; 2) provision of rental assistance to tenants 3) transfer of the project to nonprofit ownership; and 4) purchase of affordability covenants. These options are described below. The City’s focus is on proactive construction of replacement units and rental assistance.
Construction of Replacement Units
The construction of new affordable housing units is a means of replacing the at-risk units should they be converted to market-rate units. The cost of developing housing depends on a variety of factors, including density, size of the units (i.e. square footage and number of bedrooms), location, labor, materials and land costs, and type of construction. The City is implementing a number of programs to encourage development of new affordable units to increase the City’s affordable housing stock (see Chapter 2). The City estimates the average cost of construction for replacement units to be approximately $200 per square foot.
Rental Assistance
Rental subsidies using non-federal (state, local, or other) funding sources can be used to maintain affordability of at-risk units. These rent subsidies can be structured to mirror the federal Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) program. Under Section 8, HUD pays the difference between what tenants can pay (defined as 30 percent of household income) and what HUD estimates as the fair market rent on the unit. The feasibility of this alternative is highly dependent on the availability of other funding sources necessary to make rent subsidies available and the willingness of property owners to accept rental vouchers if they can be provided. Housing Choice Vouchers are available through the Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority.
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City of Ceres 6th Cycle Housing Element Update HCD Revised Draft January 2025 Transfer of Ownership
Transferring ownership of an at-risk project to a nonprofit housing provider is generally one of the least costly ways to ensure that at-risk units remain affordable for the long term. By transferring property ownership to a nonprofit organization whose mission includes affordable housing, the risk of losing the low-income restrictions is minimized, and the project would become potentially eligible for a greater range of governments assistance. The Stanislaus Regional Housing Authority is the most likely entity to acquire ownership of at-risk units, including the Ceres Christian Terrace apartment complex.