Planning a
Thriving Ecosystem
of Higher Education
in South County
A Workforce & Education Needs Assessment
San Diego Regional
Policy & Innovation Center
Southwestern
College
City of
Chula Vista
December
2023
Image source: Chestnut Properties
Executive Summary
-_The Need
-_Our Findings
-_Our Recommendations
Background
-_Chula Vista
-_Current Study
Workforce Needs Assessment
-_The Current Workforce: 2023
-_-_Labor Market Information
-__-Business Hiring Needs & Challenges
-__-Worker Perspectives
-_Planning for the Future
--__Labor Market Projections
-__-Regional Business Outlook
-__-Priority Occupations
01 01
01 02
03 03
04 05
05 05
07 09
12 12
13 17
Table of
Contents
Education Needs Assessment
--Resident Challenges & Opportunities
----Educational Challenges
----Educational Opportunities
----Program Interests & Modality Preferences
--Business Perspectives on Training & Education
----Training Providers
----Advice
-Priority Programs
---Met & Unmet Need
Concluding Thoughts
--Content
--Structure
Appendix I: Research Methodology
--Resident Survey
--Business Survey
--Business Focus Groups
--Priority Occupations
Appendix II: Preliminary Priority Occupations
Appendix III: Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations
Appendix IV: Priority Academic Programs
21 21
22 23
24 26
26 27
27 28
49 50
51 52
52 53
54 54
57 59
62 Table of
Contentscontinued
Executive
Summary
The Need
Chula Vista is the largest city in California
without a university offering bachelor’s
degree programs. Local leaders have been
trying to bring bachelor’s degree programs
to the 585,000 people living in South
County since at least 1986. In 2023, the City
of Chula Vista broke ground on a project
that will change that. This research project
identifies local workforce needs and
demand for bachelor’s degree programs.
We draw on focus groups with business
leaders across the region, a survey of
employers in San Diego County, Orange
County, and Baja California, Mexico, a
representative-sample survey of 1,000 San
Diego County residents, data from the US
Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
data about programs from regional
universities. Our analysis is designed to
help the University Now Initiative (UNI) fill
local gaps in higher education, differentiate
themselves from other regional higher
education offerings, and tailor their
programs to residents’ needs.
Our Findings
South County residents want and need a
bachelor’s program. 40% of South County
adults were interested in enrolling in a
bachelor’s degree program in the next two
years, compared to just 27% in the rest of
the county. Residents expressed the desire
for programs in business, healthcare,
technology, and the arts, and were as likely
to be motivated by self-improvement as by
income growth.
In focus groups, business leaders
emphasized the skills they need from
workers, including technical skills but also
social awareness, communication,
independence, creativity, critical thinking,
and problem-solving. In the short-term,
employers were focused on growing their
businesses and improving processes. For
the long-term, they were concerned about
the impacts of AI and other emerging
technologies, like virtual reality and
robotics. To prepare them for the future of
work, students need the skills to use these
emerging technologies and work effectively
and ethically in a workplace alongside
automated agents.
To determine the most valuable academic
programs to recruit to the region, we first
identified 147 priority occupations—
occupations that currently pay self-
sufficient entry-level wages, don’t require
graduate degrees or more than four years
of work experience, and are projected to
hire at least 50 new workers each year. We
adjusted hiring expectations based on eight
trends, including AI and automation, climate
change, nearshoring, and changes in
California’s regulatory environment. This
process helped us focus on the jobs of the
future.
Chula Vista is the only city in
California with a population
over 200k that does not have
a public university offering
bachelor’s degrees.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 01
Our Recommendations
We recommend that the UNI committee consider prioritizing programs that: lead to high-quality, high-demand jobs that meet the economic needs of the future (see Appendix III:
Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations); meet needs that are unmet by existing public universities in the region (see Table 2), and build on Southwestern College’s strengths and existing programs where possible by building transfer pathways to the newly created university clear to students and easy to access.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 02
Background
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 03
United States Census Bureau. (n.d.). DP05: ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates. Retrieved from https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDP5Y2021.DP05?q=population&g=160XX00US0613392.
Canedo Rivas, T., Floca, M., Gin, A., Medina Sanchez, R., Orraca Romano, P. P., & Shirk, D. A. (2022). The CaliBaja Regional Economy:
Production, Employment, Trade & Investment. University of San Diego Knauss School of Business. Retrived from https://sdchamber.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/2022-TheCaliBajaRegionalEconomy-%C6%92.pdf San Ysidro Land Port of Entry. (2023). U.S. General Services Administration. Retrieved from https://www.gsa.gov/about- us/regions/region-9-pacific-rim/land-ports-of-entry/san-ysidro-land-port-of-entry Mendoza, A. (2023, July 6). Second Otay Mesa border crossing may open later than planned. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-07-06/second-otay-mesa-border-crossing-with-20-minute-average-wait- may-open-later-than-planned
Sosa, A. (2023, Oct. 14). New law will allow some Mexican residents to pay in-state tuition at California community colleges. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-10-14/california-is-now-the-last-border-state-to- create-an-in-state-tuition-program-for-nearby-mexican-citizens City News Service. (2023, June 16). South Bay leaders to renew efforts to bring 4-year university to Chula Vista. NBC San Diego.
Retrieved from https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/south-bay-leaders-to-renew-efforts-to-bring-4-year-university-to- chula-vista/3247399/
6 5
4 3
2 1
Chula Vista
Located in south San Diego County, Chula
Vista is home to a thriving population of
276,000 residents who enjoy the city's
unique blend of coastal landscapes,
picturesque canyons, rolling hills, and
majestic mountains. Chula Vista is San
Diego County’s second largest city,
comprising approximately 8% of the
county’s population, and plays a vital role in
the cross-border dynamics of the region.
Over 40,000 people live in Tijuana, Mexico,
and commute daily to work or study in San
Diego County. Approximately 70,000
northbound vehicles and 20,000
northbound pedestrians cross the San
Ysidro Land Port of Entry each day. At the
Otay Mesa Port of Entry, approximately
17,000 passenger vehicles and commercial
trucks, and 7,000 pedestrians cross the
border daily. With a new border crossing in
the region will likely grow more
interconnected.
Although it boasts a robust educational
system and is renowned for its safety and
high quality of life, Chula Vista is the largest
city in California without a bachelor’s
granting institution. On June 16, 2023, Chula
Vista Mayor John McCann,
Assemblymember David Alvarez, and
Southwestern College Board President
Roberto Alcantar signed an agreement to
signal their commitment to bringing at least
one university to Chula Vista.
The University Now Initiative (UNI)
Committee was formed to bring together
regional leaders in government, education,
and economic and workforce development
to guide the university planning efforts. This
committee envisioned the creation of a
vibrant binational ecosystem of innovation
and higher education opportunities and
collaboration to empower our region’s
distinctive potential. This study will support
them in realizing that vision.
6 5
4 3
2 1
and with the passage of AB-91 allowing
some Mexican residents to pay in-state
tuition at California community colleges,
east Otay Mesa slated to open in 2026,
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 04
Current Study
The current study was designed to be the first phase of the academic planning study for the approved university intended for Chula Vista. There were two primary goals for this study:
We achieved these goals by using labor market information; data about existing education demand and offerings in regional colleges and universities; focus groups of business leaders in South County; a survey of business leaders in San Diego County, Orange County, and Baja California, Mexico; and a representative sample survey of San Diego County residents. For detailed information about the research methodology, see Appendix I: Research Methodology.
To conduct a workforce
needs assessment
identifying good jobs that
will be obtainable for
recent graduates with a
bachelor’s degree
To conduct an education
needs assessment
identifying high-demand
academic programs that
will prepare students for
those priority jobs
1 2
Chula Vista
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 05
To understand regional workforce needs, we studied the short-, mid-, and long-term workforce needs in the region. We learned about which programs and skills employers think are currently lacking in the region and, when looked at together with research questions addressing the long- term future, which evergreen skills educators can emphasize to ensure that graduates can succeed and bolster their programs’ reputations.
Workforce
Needs
Assessment
Data on number of jobs, entry-level requirements, and income sourced from Lightcast. (2022). Occupation table. Retrieved from https://analyst.lightcast.io/analyst/?t=4WmQn#h=ttdr2&page=occupation_table&vertical=edo&nation=us 7 The Current Workforce: 2023
The current labor market and hiring needs
and challenges of regional businesses are
our best view into the short- and
medium-term hiring needs of employers.
Understanding these needs will support us
in scaffolding a plan that addresses
immediate local needs. First, we used
labor market information to reveal the
financial premium workers with associate
and bachelor’s degrees command in the
local job market. Then, we used focus
groups and a survey of local business
leaders to identify their current hiring
needs and challenges. We also surveyed
San Diego County residents to understand
the roles they play in the labor force and
their experiences seeking jobs.
Labor Market Information
In 2023, there were 2.24 million jobs in San
Diego County. These jobs had different
entry-level requirements, such as level of
education and work experience, and paid
various wages. Approximately 21% of jobs
had no formal educational requirement,
44% required between a high school
diploma and a certification (but no college
degree), 2% required an associate degree,
28% required a bachelor’s degree, and 5%
required a graduate degree. The median
income for bachelor’s degree earners in
the county was $17.58 more than for those
without a college degree.
7 San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 06
Zip codes used to define the area included 91902, 91908, 91909, 91910, 91911, 91912, 91913, 91914, 91915, 91921, 91932, 91950, 91977, 91978, 92118, 92154, 92155, 92173.
8 Figure 1: Hourly Wages by Typical Entry-Level Education Of the 2.24 million jobs in the county,
244,574 were located in the South Bay
region. Around 20% of the jobs in the
region typically required people to have a
bachelor’s degree or higher at entry. In this
area, as in the rest of the county,
bachelor’s degree holders earned close
8 to $18 more than those without a college
degree. As workers move up the ranks in
their jobs (from entry level wages to higher
wages for their profession), bachelor’s
degrees command an increasingly higher
premium (see Figure 1).
Business Hiring Needs
& Challenges
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 07
Hiring Needs
Several employers among our focus group
participants were looking to hire people
with very specialized skills (for example,
one participant said, “The type of
cybersecurity compliance we’re trying to
enter in the field is extremely specialized”),
combinations of skills (e.g., “somebody
that has both [teaching skills] and the
technology would be the hardest”), or
experience (e.g., “…most of our positions at
even the entry-level require some level of
experience in [our particular domain of
public service]…very few people possess
that experience unless they’re coming from
another organization, like for example, [a
private charity in the same domain]. And so,
we are having challenges filling our
positions.”
Skills
A few people in the focus groups
mentioned that new graduates or young
workers tend to lack soft skills, which
employers value. For example,
Employers indicated that work experience
helped signal that a candidate has soft skills
and that experience didn’t have to be in
their specific field but “something where we
can see that they can work in a regular
place of business.” Another participant
reported,
“Especially with COVID them
being away for two years, we’re
losing kind of like the emotional
intelligence component. So,
teaching people soft skills or
whatever you want to call it, that’s
super important…if you don’t have
the emotional intelligence or
people skills, you’re not going to
last in our office.”
“Sometimes folks that have not
gone to a four-year school and
instead have been out waiting
tables and interacting with folks
are a little bit sharper on some of
like the soft skills of
understanding, being empathetic
to other people, and
understanding how to problem
solve on the fly.”
The survey of businesses reinforced the
importance of soft skills to employers, with
65% of respondents reporting that soft
skills, such as communication, teamwork,
etc., were either very or extremely
important for job candidates seeking full-
time positions in core business roles (see
Figure 2, where skills and qualifications are
ranked in descending order by which the
greatest percentage of businesses ranked
as either “very important” or “extremely
important”). Interestingly, candidates having
a bachelor’s degree was rated as being very
or extremely important by more businesses
than having technical training/expertise
specific to the position the candidate is
applying for.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 08
Figure 2: Importance of Job Skills/Qualifications for Those Doing Core Work of the Organization listening” and “speaking” for
communication, etc.). All these skills were
rated as very or extremely important by at
least half of the 212 businesses surveyed,
with active learning, critical thinking, and
reading comprehension rated highly by
close to three-quarters of businesses.
Employers also discussed common
expectations in the talent pool that they
struggled to meet:
In addition to people skills and problem-
solving, participants mentioned specific
soft skills, including fitting in with the
culture, professional networking, and
communication with coworkers.
Along with soft skills, participants cited
other specific skills that they were looking
for, including project management,
teaching, public speaking, written
communication, self-directed learning,
interviewing skills, in/entrepreneurial skills,
safety, ethics, creativity, adaptability,
problem-solving, communication and
networking, engineering, and software
skills.
Related skills were often rated highly on
the survey as well. In Figure 3, we show the
five work skills rated either very or
extremely important by the largest
percentage of businesses in the survey, as
well as skills related to those brought up in
the qualitative data (for example,
“instructing” for teaching skills, “active
“A lot of people that the first
question they ask is, is this
remote or in office?...we tend to
not hire fully remote people, but
we see that that’s where the
talent pool is.”
“And people want to get paid a lot
and we’re in education and we
can’t pay them that much.”
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 09
Figure 3: Importance of Work Skills for Those Doing Core Work of the Organization The number of jobs worked by
respondents differed by race and gender
but not by region of the county (i.e., South
County compared to the rest of the
county). Multiracial, Hispanic, and Black
respondents reported working two jobs
more frequently than Asian respondents,
who were most likely to report working
one job. Men reported working both one
and two jobs more frequently than
women. Most respondents were working
full-time (40 hours per week) in their
primary job, and this did not differ by
region, race, or gender.
Worker Perspectives
p ≤0.05. This and all other statistical tests discussed are chi-square tests of independence.9 Work Landscape
Among respondents to our survey, 56%
were working for pay at the time of the
survey. Of those not working, approximately
one-third had been actively looking for
work in the previous month. Women were
significantly less likely to be working than
men, though there was no difference by
gender in reported job-seeking behaviors.
While most racial groups were more likely
to be working than not, White respondents
were significantly less likely to be working.
Hispanic respondents who were not
currently working were significantly more
likely to be seeking work than others.
9 San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 10
Finally, we asked respondents who were
working for pay how likely they were to
search for a new job in the next year.
Close to half of workers (46%) said they
were somewhat or extremely likely to seek
a new job in the next 12 months (see
Figure 4). Turnover intentions were equally
likely across region, gender, and race. This
was somewhat lower than national
turnover intention estimates, which ranged
from 51% to 56% in 2023.
10 11
Mosser, M. (2023, July 27). Half of Your Employees Are Looking to Leave. Gallup. Retrieved from https://www.gallup.com/workplace/506819/half-employees-looking-leave.aspx Gillespie, L. (2023, April 3). Survey: 56% of workers plan to look for a job in the next 12 months. Bankrate. Retrieved October 24, 2023, from https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/job-seekers-survey/ 10 1 1
Figure 4: Likelihood of Seeking a New Job in Next 12 Months (Among Those Working for Pay) We asked respondents who worked for
pay about the match between their
skills/training and their jobs. Most workers
(69%) reported that their job was a good
match for their skills/training, a little over
one-quarter (26%) reported their job
didn’t take advantage of their
skills/training, and 5% reported that their
job was a little beyond their skills/training.
There were no differences in reported
skills (mis)match by region of the county,
gender, or race.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 11
Survey participants were asked to select all challenges that applied to them.12 There were no significant differences by
region, race, or gender in reported
experiences of most of these job
challenges, with two exceptions: Asian
respondents were significantly more likely,
and White respondents significantly less
likely, to report that the job they wanted
was very competitive. Women were
significantly more likely than men to
report that they lacked adequate child- or
eldercare. (These bars are labeled with “*”
in Figure 5).
Other challenges respondents listed
included disability or illness (5%), age or
retirement (2%), having a criminal record
(1%), and being homeless, a lack of private
or public transportation, having an
obligation to the military that prevents
looking for other work, having an expired
professional credential, pursuing writing,
and looking for part-time work (less than
1% each).
Job Challenges
When asked how satisfied they were about
their ability to get a job in the occupation or
line of work they want, approximately one-
third of San Diego County residents
reported they were somewhat or very
dissatisfied. There were no significant
differences in satisfaction by region,
gender, or race.
Figure 5 shows the job challenges reported
by individuals who said they were
somewhat or very dissatisfied with their
ability to get their desired job. Close to
30% each reported that there were not
enough jobs available, the job they wanted
was very competitive, and/or that the
available jobs haven’t paid enough. About
21% reported that they did not have the
required work experience and 17% reported
they did not have the required training,
skills, education, or certification.
12 Figure 5: Challenges to Getting Desired Job (Of Those Dissatisfied with Ability to Get Job) San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 12
Planning For The Future
Trends are changing our economy, job
market, and training needs. To help the UNI
Committee build programs that are flexible
and resilient to changes in the economy
and design curricula that support
anticipated business needs, we 1) projected
regional labor market information to 2023,
2) asked business leaders about the trends
and challenges they expect in the short-
and long-term and 3) generated a list of
priority occupations.
Regardless of whether our participants
successfully predict the future, their
answers to questions about the future of
their business and industry will help us
understand the perspectives and behavior
of employers as they consider their long-
term outlook.
Labor Market Projections
Over the next 10 years, the San Diego
County economy is expected to grow by
nearly 264,000 jobs. Over one-tenth of the
job growth (30,286 jobs) is projected to be
in priority jobs: those that pay a self-
sustaining wage, are accessible for recent
graduates, and have a sufficient number of
projected openings (for a detailed
discussion of priority occupations, see
Preliminary Priority Occupations , below).
The South County economy is expected to
grow by about 25,500 jobs. Most
(approximately 70%) of the priority
occupations in the county are projected to
require a bachelor’s degree at entry. Figure
6 compares the number of priority jobs
available in South County and the rest of
San Diego County by typical entry level
education for 2023 and 2033.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 13
Figure 6: Priority Jobs by Typical Entry-Level Education Regional Business Outlook
We asked local business leaders about their
expectations in the short-term and long-
term future. Regardless of whether our
participants successfully predict the future,
their answers to questions about the future
of their business and industry will help us
understand the perspectives and behavior
of employers as they consider their long-
term outlook.
Five Years from Now
Close to three-quarters of the business
survey participants (see Figure 7 ) and
nearly all of our focus group participants
expected their businesses to grow over the
next five years. They were optimistic about
new markets and process improvements in
the short-term future, and few expected
large-scale disruptions. Survey participants
were evenly split when asked whether they
expected their hiring practices and/or goals
to change in the next five years, with 51%
responding yes and 49% responding no.
Figure 7: Expected Change in Business Size Over Next Five Years San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 14
In the near term, participants talked about
the growth they expect in their businesses.
Along with that growth, they anticipated
raising their hiring standards and
improving their processes. For example, “…
increas[ing their] efforts to promote diverse
and inclusive recruitment practices,”
becoming “…more in-depth and analytical,”
“…hir[ing] more experience,” or “ …requiring
more bespoke training and less on the job
training.” Process improvements included,
for example, “ …cross-functional
collaboration, continuous feedback, and
iterative improvements in hiring
processes,” “…a stronger focus on remote
work capabilities and fostering a diverse
and inclusive workplace to attract top
talent globally, ” and “ …creat[ing] a positive,
professional, inclusive and transparent
recruitment process that attracts high-
quality candidates and enhances our
employer brand.”
Many mentioned additional efficiencies
from technology in the near-term future,
including automation and AI, but not major
disruptions. In the five-year future,
participants expect technology
advancements will improve staff recruiting
tools, manufacturing automation, education
and training, marketing, and cybersecurity,
and will enable remote and distributed
teams.
Fifty Years from Now
Participants’ 50-year visions showed much
more variety. Respondents imagined
everything from space tourism to gene-
editing nanobots. In this section, we review
patterns in participants’ visions and their
concerns about the future: what technology
will change their industries? What new skills
will be needed in their industry in 50 years?
What jobs will be more and less relevant in
the future?
Technology
In focus groups and in the survey, Artificial
Intelligence (AI) was the most popular
topic of the 50-year discussion.
Participants most often mentioned AI as a
generally transformational force, but
participants offered many specific
examples of impacts they expected,
including skills and jobs that will benefit
from AI and those that will be in less
demand.
They expect increasing demand for some
skills and jobs:
Engineering, architects, and designers of
AI
Analysts and programmers
“Digital organizers”
People who can interpret and apply the
outputs of AI
Regulators, compliance officers, and
auditors of AI systems and their outputs
Data privacy and security
Creative workers
They expect some jobs will change
substantially:
Therapy, education, customer service,
and administration facilitated by AI
Content creators will rely on AI
Engineering may experience some
deskilling as AI gets involved
And they expect some jobs will be replaced
entirely. Participants expected replacement
in:
Customer support and operations roles
Cashiers and customer service jobs
Administrative positions
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 15
In 50 years, they predicted the need for skills in data analysis, GIS, cryptography, operating automated systems, building AI tools, building virtual reality environments, organizing data, working with automated assistants, and quality control. Participants discussed problem-solving, communication and networking, engineering, and software skills as part of both their current and future hiring needs.
There was a lot of difference in opinion among participants about teaching and education:
“I don’t see teachers in person being of
much use.”
“I don't think [Chat GPT] can replace the
physical teacher teaching and lecturing, but
I think it can help with instructional design,
which is building courses.”
“What we would consider mundane tasks,
or repetitive tasks will for sure. . . be
replaced with technology. And I think we'll
see more cerebral think tanks for humans.
And that's why education is going to
become even more important.”
A few people discussed AI ethics , auditing, and transparency. New jobs mentioned in this category included AI Ethics Officers, AI regulators, AI auditors, and AI compliance officers. One respondent, for example, predicted that 50 years in the future, there will be:
“Strong ethical guidelines and regulations govern the
development, deployment, and usage of AI. There are
international standards ensuring AI respects privacy,
avoids discrimination, and operates transparently.”
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 16
Some participants mentioned where they
thought they would see little change due to
AI. Those areas include:
Education, especially early childhood
and musical education
Hands-on services (like cooking and
cleaning)
Construction
Participants predicted that in 50 years,
other technologies will impact the economy
as well. Other technologies mentioned
include robotics, virtual and augmented
reality, quality control and monitoring
technology, quantum computing,
cryptography, novel materials and
construction techniques, new
manufacturing technologies, improved
software, medical advancements (including
nanoscale technologies, neural
enhancements, 3D printed tissue), and
climate change reversal.
Advancements in robotics were
particularly salient for our participants.
They expected higher demand for robotics
engineers and programmers as robotics
gets further integrated into manufacturing,
sanitary services, car repair, restaurants
and bars, retail, shipping and delivery.
Participants frequently described virtual
and augmented reality as changing the job
market. They anticipated demand for
developers that can create virtual
environments, including for shopping,
assessments, job fairs, therapy, historical
preservation, legal consultations, training,
and education, and more demand for
candidates who are comfortable working in
virtual environments.
Social Change
Some people anticipated cultural or legal
changes. Cultural changes mentioned
mentioned included an aging population,
Generation Z entering the workforce,
shorter attention spans, a greater need for
bilingual workers, and (non-specific)
changes in consumer behavior.
Additionally, a few participants anticipated
more funding, more competition, and
more social acceptance for the kind of
work they do.
The changes that participants anticipate in
government include:
“Technology will have automated many of
the tedious aspects of economic
development (e.g. site selection,
infrastructure planning) and empowered
the more complicated conversations
surrounding workforce, education and
land use.”
“Reduction in paperwork, insurance
reimbursement equivalent to professional
fee advertised, enough providers to meet
the demand for services.”
“It will likely be more regulated. . . My field
is new, and cutting edge and so there is a
lot of opportunity for creativity and
growth. As it becomes more established
it will likely be less flexible.”
“I anticipate a greater use of and reliance
on social programs, this would mean
more case managers, social workers, care
givers, home health aides, etc.”
“Early intervention services for young
children will be available for all families at
no cost.”
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 17
Participants predicted changes in
transportation, logistics, architecture,
infrastructure, and food production in
response to environmental concerns. One
respondent speculated that companies will
take more responsibility for their
environmental impact, writing:
Priority Occupations
To help guide bachelor’s program
development, we identified priority
occupations that are in high demand in the
county and represent substantial
opportunity for graduates in the future.
Identifying priority occupations proceeded
in two stages: first identifying preliminary
priority occupations based on current
economic data, and then identifying future
trends and adjusting the list of preliminary
priority occupations to reflect the future
trends.
Preliminary Priority Occupations
One of the primary goals of the workforce
needs analysis was to describe the “good”
jobs available to recent college graduates
who have earned a bachelor’s degree. We
considered jobs to be good if they pay a
livable wage, are obtainable by recent
graduates, and have enough job openings
that graduates can reasonably expect to
have access to them.
The self-sufficiency standard enumerates the income people need to have to meet their needs without further assistance.
University of Washington Center for Women’s Welfare. (2020). Overview. Self Sufficiency Standard. Retrieved September 5, 2023, from https://selfsufficiencystandard.org/the-standard/overview/ At PIC, we believe people should make a self-sufficient wage in a 40-hour work week. We calculated the self-sufficient wage for summer 2023 by adjusting the 2021 self-sufficiency wage for a 40-hour work week and using the local Current Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is important to note that we consider this a wage floor for “good jobs” and that higher wages are necessary to sustain families.
10th percentile wages.
13 14
We created a preliminary list of priority
occupations based on four criteria. To be
considered a priority occupation, jobs
must:
Have 50 or more average openings per
year
Require less than five years of work
experience at entry
Require a bachelor’s degree or less at
entry
Pay a self-sustaining wage at entry
Jobs must have 50 or more average
openings per year to ensure that there will
be enough jobs available for graduating
students. They must require less than five
years of work experience and a bachelor’s
degree or less at entry so that graduating
students can meet the entry-level
requirements. Finally, they must pay a self-
sustaining wage of $21.98 at entry to
ensure that people taking these jobs can
make ends meet without additional
assistance.
Based on these criteria, we identified a
preliminary list of 87 priority occupations in
San Diego County (see Appendix II:
Preliminary Priority Occupations). Few (0%
in the South Bay region and 8% in San Diego
County) of the priority jobs required an
associate degree at entry while the majority
(72% in South Bay, 73% in the entire county)
required a bachelor’s degree.
13 14
“HR will play a role in sustainability efforts,
addressing climate change, and promoting
eco-conscious practices.”
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 18
We do not make predictions about jobs that do not yet exist, but completely new occupations only account for approximately
0.56% of new jobs in the United States each year. Lin, J. (2011). Technological adaptation, cities, and new work. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 554–574.
15 Future-Adjusted
Priority Occupations
Our preliminary priority occupations list
identified “good” jobs in 2023’s economy,
but how will legal, social, and technological
changes impact the job market in 2033?
We considered the impacts of changes to
California employment law, an aging
population, climate change, improvements
in energy efficiency, the movement away
from fossil fuel usage, nearshoring, and
automation on currently existing jobs in
order to identify a future-adjusted priority
occupation list (for more information, see
Appendix I: Research Methodology).
15 We removed six occupations from our
preliminary list (for example, we expect the
credit analysis occupation to experience
substantial deskilling due to automation,
which is likely to reduce job quality,
including pay). We added 67 occupations
(many of them in the healthcare industry,
due to the passage of California SB-525
that increases the minimum wage of
healthcare workers), for a final list of 147
priority occupations (see Appendix III:
Future-Adjusted Priority Occupations).
From this point forward, when we refer to
“priority occupations,” we are referring to
this future-adjusted list.
AI Impact
on Existing
Professions
We can’t tell how AI will impact one job, let
alone a multi-disciplinary, interconnected
industry. But we aren’t completely ignorant
about it, either. We can imagine several
possible futures for an industry and
consider how the decisions of other
people— including those in the industries,
technologists, and educators— can move
us closer toward each of those futures. In
this case study, we will review some
possible futures of one multidisciplinary
industry: film and television production.
Software driven by machine learning has
been a part of the film and television
industry for a long time. Recommendation
algorithms drive advertising and decide
what content Netflix puts on your home
page, making a big impact on the demand
side of the equation. Recently, AI tools are
being incorporated more broadly into the
creation side of the equation. Even
“Everything, Everywhere, All at Once,” which
won seven Academy Awards, including Best
Picture, used AI-driven tools for some
minor special effects. It’s not hard to
imagine a near-future where AI tools write
drafts of scripts, ad copy, and music; create
special effects; dub or mimic actors’ voices
to change the dialog in films; and much
more.
Generative AI-machine learning-based
models that accept prompts and generate
text, images, or video— has been advancing
rapidly in 2023. The implementation of
these models has already caused a stir in
the film and TV production industry. Dozens
of articles were published this year with
titles like “Generative AI is upending the film
industry,” “’Of course it’s disturbing’: Will AI
change Hollywood forever? ” and “How will
the Movies (as we know them) Survive the
Next 10 years?”
Substantial Replacement
In this future, AI takes over a lot of tasks
currently done by humans, reducing the
number of humans employed in the
industry. This could look like AI replacing
individual human jobs one at a time (e.g., an
automated agent that replaces a writers’
room, an automated agent that edits
videos) or replacing tasks, and fewer people
are needed to accomplish the tasks that
remain.
Replacement would have a major, negative
impact on employment in film and
television production. It could also
massively increase the quantity of content
coming out of the industry. Many people
believe that humans will not be as
compelled by content that isn’t guided by
workers who understand the human
experience, so it seems likely that the jobs
that are not replaced will be focused on
guiding outputs toward the topics, plots,
and characters that humans find most
interesting.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 19
How do we predict and prepare for
AI’s impact on human labor?
Substantial Deskilling
In this world, robots don’t take over our
jobs— just the most interesting parts.
Furniture makers are an example of a
profession impacted by deskilling. At one
time, skilled craftsmen created furniture. If
you wanted a chair or a table, humans
designed, measured, cut, assembled, and
finished the piece. With the introduction of
assembly line manufacturing, humans are
still involved in the process, but their
involvement requires much less skill.
Deskilling in film and television production
could occur if generative AI is widely
adopted, but it turns out the models need a
lot of handholding. So instead of writing a
script or editing a video, someone would be
carefully writing prompts, editing outputs,
stitching them together, and refining the
final product. Even if the same number of
people are employed, these jobs require
fewer or different skills. Very often, this
results in formerly well-paying jobs
becoming low-wage work.
Human + AI Teams
Research in human computer interaction
suggests that people could work with AI in a
similar way that they collaborate with
humans. However, in order for this not to
constitute replacement, the automated
agents would need to be doing something
that humans couldn’t or wouldn’t otherwise
be doing. Human-AI collaboration may not
risk jobs, for example, when robots rescue
earthquake survivors or neural networks
condense large data sets into a model.
By this definition, some Human + AI
collaboration is already going on in film, for
example when we recruit AI to do special
effects tasks that would be prohibitively
expensive if done by a human. If we
incorporate AI into our workflow in this way,
though, it will be very easy to then start
using the same software for tasks that
would simply be somewhat more expensive
for a human to do. That’s where we get into
deskilling or replacement.
AI-Supported, Human-Led
In this future, AI is framed as an assistant to
human workers, allowing humans to do their
regular jobs, but faster or better than they
could do them without. This could
constitute deskilling or replacement, but it
doesn’t need to. For example, humans
assigned to come up with a title for a
television episode could use a generative AI
to suggest dozens of titles that they can
use to seed brainstorming.
Some see this as the future of AI in TV and
film, writing articles like “ How AI will
augment human creativity in film
production.” Others see similar pitfalls as
exist with human-AI teams: if the AI can
take over tasks that would normally be
done by a human for less money and in less
time, it seems unlikely that studios and
other people in power would be content
limiting AI’s input to assisting expensive
human labor.
AI Banned
In light of the threats of AI to humans (not
only in replacing human labor, but also in
algorithmic bias, wealth concentration, and
the risks of general intelligence, for
example) some advocate banning or
restricting the development and use of AI
systems. This future could include either
banning AI tools in general or banning
certain AI tools, and the ban could span a
country, an industry, or a company.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 20
Education Needs
Assessment
To complement the workforce needs
assessment, we described the education
needs of residents and businesses. We
used a resident survey to uncover
educational challenges, opportunities, and
interests and asked business leaders about
their education and training needs.
Resident Challenges
& Opportunities
In addition to asking residents about the
difficulties they had finding a job, we asked
about some of the challenges and
opportunities they had experienced with
higher education. This information will help
academic planning that is responsive to
local needs. We learned about residents’
satisfaction with their ability to earn a
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 21
bachelor’s degree, some of the challenges
that prevented people from being
completely satisfied with their ability to do
so, how much people believed getting
degrees and certifications would help their
future job prospects, who is interested in
enrolling soon, and potential students’
preferences for course modality.
We learned from participants in the
business survey and focus groups what
training providers they like to hire from, and
some participants also had advice for
developing new programs. This information,
combined with the workforce needs
assessment, can be used to start planning
for the new academic programs with an eye
towards what locals want out of their
education.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 22
to go to school” and “I have to put my
other expenses (e.g., bills, rent/mortgage,
children’s college tuition, etc.) above going
to school.” Only the opportunity cost
measure of not being able to afford time
away from work had any significant
variation by the tested metrics, with
multiracial respondents more likely to
report they could not afford to take time
away from work to go to school than other
groups (this significant difference is
indicated with a star in Figure 8). Other
reasons that respondents listed in the
open-ended responses included illness
and disability (3%), age and/or being
retired (3%), and discrimination, fear,
overall expense, and not qualifying for
financial aid (less than 1% each).
Educational Challenges
We asked San Diego County residents how
satisfied they were with their ability to earn
a bachelor’s degree if they wanted it. Close
to one-third of residents who had not
already earned a bachelor’s degree
reported they were somewhat or very
dissatisfied. Level of satisfaction did not
vary significantly by region of the county,
race, or gender.
When asked what factors have prevented
them from getting the degree they want,
two-thirds of residents who reported being
dissatisfied with their ability to earn a
bachelor’s degree said that at least one of
the contributing factors was that the cost
of tuition was too high (see Figure 8). The
other two highly reported factors were “I
cannot afford to take time away from work
Figure 8:
Challenges to Earning a Bachelor's Degree (Among Those Dissatisfied with Their Ability To Do So) San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 23
elsewhere in the county to report a
certification would help their job
prospects a great deal. White residents
were more likely to report “not at all” and,
in this case, multiracial residents were
more likely to report that an occupation-
specific certification would help their job
prospects a great deal than were other
racial groups. No differences were
observed by gender for either question.
Nearly 30% of San Diego County residents
overall reported interest in enrolling in a
bachelor’s degree program in the next two
years and reported interest differed
significantly by region of the county and
race. Figure 9 shows that South County
residents were more likely to report
interest in enrolling in a bachelor’s degree
program in the near future. There were no
reported differences by gender, but White
residents were less interested in enrolling
when compared to other racial groups.
Educational Opportunities
When asked how much getting a bachelor’s
degree would help their future job
prospects (for example, by helping them
obtain a new job, get a promotion, increase
earning potential, etc.), 44% of county
residents without a bachelor’s degree
reported it would help either somewhat or a
great deal. White residents were
significantly more likely to answer “not at
all” than other racial groups.
The analogous question about occupation-
specific certifications produced similar
results. Overall, 45% of residents reported it
would help their job prospects either
somewhat or a great deal to obtain an
occupation-specific certification (though it
is important to note that when asked about
which certification would help, many
respondents wrote in some type of degree.
For more information, see Program Interests
& Modality Preferences). Residents of South
County were more likley than residents
Figure 9: Percent of Residents Interested in Enrolling in a Bachelor's Degree Program by Region We asked about interest in enrolling in the next two years to give respondents a specific, short-term timeframe to reference. This was meant to capture actual intent of enrolling in the near future and to exclude people who consider a bachelor’s degree a “someday, maybe” goal.
16 16
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 24
When asked for the top three reasons they
were interested in enrolling in a bachelor’s
program, close to 60% each selected “To
help me earn more money” and “For self-
improvement” (see Figure 10 ).
Approximately 40% each selected “To
learn” and “For the future of my family.”
Eighteen percent selected “To change the
world for the better” and about 15% each
selected “It would allow me to help my
parents or family financially” and “To prove
to others that I can succeed.” Less than 10%
each selected “I feel like I am expected to,”
“It’s better than the alternatives,” and
“Someone I admired or respected
encouraged me to go.” Women were
significantly more likely to report wanting to
enroll for self-improvement and for the
future of their families than men, and men
were more likely to report wanting to enroll
to prove they could succeed. Asian
respondents were most likely to report
both wanting to enroll to help their parents
or family financially and because they felt
they were expected to.
Figure 10: Potential Students' Top Three Reasons for Wanting to Enroll Options based on the Student Motivation for Attending University (SMAU)- Revised scale. Phinney, J. S., Dennis, J., & Osorio, S. (2006). Reasons to attend college among ethnically diverse college students. Cultural Diversity and Ethnic Minority Psychology, 12(2), 347.
17 17
Program Interests &
Modality Preferences
We asked people who were dissatisfied
with their ability to earn a bachelor’s degree
what they would like to study if they had no
barriers to access. While 56% said they
were unsure, the remainder wrote in fields
of study they would be interested in
pursuing. The most popular fields included
business (such as marketing), technology
(such as computer science or information
technology), healthcare (such as
kinesiology or nursing), and arts (such as
photography or music).
The section on Educational Opportunities
shows that nearly half of county residents
said that an occupation-specific
certification would help their job prospects.
Many of the write-in answers to the follow-
up question of what certification would help
their job prospects were degree focused
(e.g., “psychology degree,” “Masters
degree,” “Law Degree”), but other
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 25
commonly reported certifications
included technology-focused
certifications (such as for information
security), commercial driver’s licenses,
teaching certifications, healthcare-
focused certifications (e.g., ultrasound
technician), and nursing certifications.
Finally, we asked residents who reported
interest in enrolling in a bachelor’s
program in the next two years to select all
the ways they would like to take classes.
Figure 11 shows 62% of potential students
were interested in online, asynchronous
courses, with women significantly more
Figure 11: Course Modality Preferences of Potential Students likely than men to select this option. The
next most popular option was in person,
during the day, with no significant
differences by region, race, or gender in
preferences for this type of class. In-
person, evening classes were selected by
approximately one-third of potential
students and preferred by men. Online,
synchronous classes taught either in the
evening or during the day were selected
by about 21% of potential students each
and were less popular among South
County residents than among residents
elsewhere in the county.
From our survey, we learned that almost
30% of all San Diego County residents and
40% of those living in South San Diego
County are interested in earning a
bachelor’s degree. The most popular
programs of interest are business,
technology, healthcare, and the arts. The
factors holding residents back are largely
direct costs and opportunity costs. Those
who are interested in a bachelor’s degree
are approximately equally interested in
both the financial and personal
development benefits of the degree. The
majority of respondents are interested in
online asynchronous classes, especially
female respondents.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 26
Business Perspectives
on Training & Education
We learned from participants in the
business survey and focus groups what
training providers they like to hire from,
and some participants also had advice for
developing new programs. This
information, combined with the workforce
needs assessment, can be used to start
planning for the new academic programs
with a focus on what locals want out of
their education.
Training Providers
We asked focus group participants
whether they had training providers they
liked to hire from. They said:
“We’ve worked in the past with NFAR, so
that’s the National Foundation for Autism
Research. So folks that are helping people
that are on the autism spectrum, they’ve
been a great source of talent for us.”
“We might want to partner with like an
Operation Code or a Code Platoon
versus a private for-profit program.”
“A lot of great candidates from some of
the community colleges: Grossmont,
Southwestern, City College, and then San
Diego College of Continuing Education.”
When asked what kinds of new training
providers they would like to see, focus
group participants identified programs
including culinary schools, social services
programs, cybersecurity, and data
analysis. Several folks described instead
what they were looking for in a training
approach. For example,
“…cooperative education models. So
schools or programs that are doing
experiential learning, tied directly with
industry.”
“If there was more training around just
business development, just business
structure, I think that would be good.”
“…providers that we tend to avoid
referring folks to or getting folks from
are gonna be folks that are not providing
transparent outcomes data.”
“If they don’t have a human component
to their mission, then they’re probably
not in alignment with my core values.”
“San Diego County Office of Education,
juvenile court, and Community Schools. I
feel like when we have an opportunity to
give back to some of our most needy
students in the county, we love to be able
to do that.”
“Love to see students from like CSU San
Marcos. I think a lot of those students are
crushing it out there.”
“We work with local nonprofits with, like,
for example, Kitchens for Good, to help
us get some candidates that are willing to
learn.”
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 27
Advice
A few participants gave direct advice
about developing new programs.
“Engage and get learners some credit for
that institution . . . while they're going
through high school so that we're really
talking about degree completion and not
necessarily starting from scratch in this
new institution. I think . . . those schools
that can do that [will] stand out and provide
more value. You know, to people
considering all their options.”
“I think when you have more representation
of Black faculty, tenured faculty, students
are more likely to see themselves at that
institution, and they're more likely to be
retained, more likely to continue to come,
be mentored and graduate, be motivated,
kind of work through life while they're in
college.”
“The first thing is a more of a willingness to
go beyond just the isolated, everything on
main campus, and instead really be
partnering in a meaningful way with outside
community-based organizations whether
that be better and more frequent volunteer
opportunities [or] opportunities to get
some work experience and get college
credit for it.”
“I would also always advocate for
affordability.”
We did this using the CIP 2020 to SOC 2018 Crosswalk, a joint effort by statisticians at the National Center for Education Statistics and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to match academic programs with occupations based on skills and knowledge.
Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cipcode/resources.aspx?y=55 Universities in Mexico do not use CIP codes, so we matched those programs based on a keyword search of the titles of programs offered at the universities compared to the titles of programs in the CIP 2020 to SOC 2018 Crosswalk file.
Colleges and universities assign the CIP code of a program by first selecting the two-digit series that the program fits in (for example, 13 for Education, 14 for Engineering, 27 for Mathematics and Statistics, etc.) and then selecting the six-digit programs within that category based on the descriptions presented by the NCES. National Center for Education Statistics. (2020).
Frequently Asked Questions for CIP Website and CIP Wizard 2020 Version 1.0. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cipcode/Files/CIP_FAQ_Document_2020.pdf. The college or university is then free to name the program as they wish (they are not constrained by the CIP names). This means that it may appear from the title that they have a program corresponding to an occupation, but it may not align with that occupation based on the CIP code. The University of California San Diego, for example, offers a Master of Arts in Teaching and Learning: Bilingual Education (ASL – English). The CIP code, however, is 13.0101, for Education, General, not for bilingual education. 18 Priority Programs
One of the primary goals of the education
needs analysis was to create a list of high-
priority academic programs that would
prepare students for the regional
workforce. We did this by identifying the
academic programs that teach skills and
knowledge required by professionals in
the Priority Occupations. A complete list
of priority programs is available in
Appendix IV: Priority Academic Programs .
Next, we discuss the availability of these
programs in the region.
18 International Border
19 19
Table 1: Priority Occupations with Associated Academic Programs at SWC San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 28
United States Census Bureau. (n.d.). DP05: ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates. Retrieved from https://data.census.gov/table?
q=population&g=860XX00US91902,91910,91911,91913,91914,91915,91932,91950,91977,91978,92118,92154,92155,92173.
The number of students (including dual-enrolled high-school students) who received an end-of-term grade in a for-credit course. Southwestern College. (2023). Enrollment and Course Outcomes Dashboard. Retrieved from https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/southwesterncollege/viz/EnrollmentandCourseOutcomesDashboard/EnrollmentandCourse OutcomesDashboard.
California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office Management Information Systems Data Mart. (2013). Program Awards Summary Report. Retrieved from https://datamart.cccco.edu/Outcomes/Program_Awards.aspx. 20 21
22 Met & Unmet Need: South County
Currently, there is no bachelor’s-granting institution in South County, a region of approximately 585,000 people (18% of San Diego County’s population). Southwestern College is the only public college in the area, offering a variety of associate degree and certificate programs to close to 24,000 students in the 2022-2023 academic year. Over 3,000 awards were earned that academic year, including 1,005 associate for transfer degrees, 1,038 associate degrees, 1,058 certificates, and one other credit award.
Of the 147 priority occupations identified in the workforce needs analysis, 48 have an associated academic program at Southwestern College. There is a mismatch, however, between the level of education offered at Southwestern College and the typical entry-level education at most of those jobs (see Table 1). Twenty-five of the occupations typically require a bachelor’s degree at entry and seven typically require less than an associate degree. This leaves sixteen priority occupations for which an academic program exists in South County that conveys the required skills or knowledge and meets the typical entry-level requirements of the job. 20 21
22 Table 1 Continued: Priority Occupations with Associated Academic Programs at SWC San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 29
San Diego County
San Diego County is home to 16 universities
– three public; eight private, non-profit; and
five private, for-profit institutions. For this
project, we focused on public universities
(as those that are most accessible) and
provided additional information about
private universities that were participating
in the University Now Initiative in the
supplementary data file.
The three public universities – California
State University San Marcos, San Diego
State University, and University of California
San Diego – offered a total of 242
bachelor’s degree programs associated
with priority occupations. California State
University San Marcos offered 59 priority
degree programs, SDSU offered 100 priority
degree programs, and UCSD offered 83
priority degree programs. Because the
degree programs often convey the skills
and knowledge necessary for more than
one occupation (a degree in computer
science, for example, is associated with the
SOC codes for computer systems analysts,
information security analysts, database
architects, computer programmers,
software developers, and data scientists),
the 242 degree programs provided
education associated with 45 priority
occupations. Table 2 lists occupations for
which the typical entry level education is a
bachelor’s degree and there is no
associated academic program at public
universities in San Diego County.
Additionally, it lists the degree programs
associated with each that may be a
potential area for concentration for the new
university.
San Diego State University
Table 2: Occupations for Which the Typical Entry-Level Education is a Bachelor’s Degree and There are No Bachelor's Degree Programs at San Diego County Public Universities San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 30
* No educational program teaching the knowledge and skills for this occupation was identified by BLS and NCES statisticians.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 31
* No educational program teaching the knowledge and skills for this occupation was identified by BLS and NCES statisticians.
For students interested in studying at a public university in Tijuana and later working in the US, six institutions exist. Instituto Politécnico Nacional offers three priority bachelor’s degree programs, Instituto Tecnológico de Tijuana offers 17, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California offers 31, Universidad Pedagógica Nacional en Tijuana offers six, and Universidad Tecnológica de Tijuana offers 11 (El Colegio de la Frontera Norte is a public university but only offers graduate- level education). Thirty-one of the 65 priority occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree at entry had an academic program available at a public university in Tijuana.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 32
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 33
* Impacted program
Table 3: Table 3: Selected Priority Occupations, Associated Academic Programs, Regional Availability, and Resident Priority
Table 3 provides an example of the links between the workforce needs assessment, education needs assessment, and the information presented in the supplementary data file. We present the top 20 priority occupations by projected annual job openings, their associated academic programs, and information about their regional availability at public institutions, impaction status, and prioritization by residents.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 34
* Impacted program
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 35
* Impacted program
See above
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 36
* Impacted program
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 37
* Impacted program
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 38
* Impacted program
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 39
* Impacted program
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 40
* Impacted program
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 41
* Impacted program
See above
See above
See above
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 42
* Impacted program
See above
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 43
* Impacted program
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 44
* Impacted program
See above
See above
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 45
* Impacted program
See above
See above
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 46
* Impacted program
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
See above
Pathways
to Future
Programs
Emerging occupations are difficult to
design training programs for. By their
nature, they are unfamiliar and uncertain:
the skills and content knowledge graduates
need change quicker than legacy programs,
and faculty with real-life experience with
the profession are difficult to find. We will
use the field of Data Science – a young,
growing profession – as an example of
successful development of academic
programs alongside an emerging
occupation.
Today, organizations hire Data Scientists to
help them structure, explore, and address
difficult and quickly changing business
problems using organizational data, and
often several, very large data sets. Data
Scientists need to be able to understand
data types and structures, to clean and
manipulate data collected for one purpose
to address another, to do sophisticated
data analysis, and to interpret the results of
their analysis to solve business problems.
Before people were hired for the job title
“Data Scientist,” these tasks were often
done by workers with broader statistical
backgrounds.
Today, Data Science bachelor’s programs
are ubiquitous and very popular among
students. They don’t often live in statistics
departments – more often, these programs
are founded within computer science or
engineering, management, or library and
information science departments.
Data science programs often focus on
producing the most accurate predictions of
a variable of interest based on a suite of
related variables using machine learning
techniques, which were first developed in
psychiatry, over inferring relationships
between variables using traditional
statistical methods. They support the
aspects of the Data Scientist’s job that are
not covered by a traditional statistics
education, like data manipulation,
understanding the context of disparate
data sources, and data storytelling.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 47
How exactly do programs for emerging
occupations develop successfully?
The professional practice of Data Science
can be looked at from many angles:
computer scientists use many of the same
programming languages and techniques;
management programs train students to
identify and address business problems;
library and information departments think
deeply about the nature, structure, and
context of information. A data science
department could be built on any of these
strong foundations. It is unlikely that a
College of Data Science would be created
without first starting in another department
and building on that expertise before
breaking off into its own department.
Schools with successful data science
programs develop out of a school’s
strengths in existing programs.
Their strong reputations allow them to
attract excellent faculty. Their trust within
their larger institution allows them to build
flexible programs, in which they can change
curricula guided by trends in the growing
profession. Their local credibility makes it
easier to build external partners for
projects, internships, and more, giving
students real world experience in the
profession as it exists that year.
When building new programs for emerging
professions, we recommend the UNI
Committee think carefully about where to
house the new program, selecting a
department whose existing programs
shares skill sets with the emerging
profession and one that has a strong
reputation and current faculty.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 48
Concluding
Thoughts
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 49
A bachelor’s granting institution is needed
in Southern San Diego County. Government
officials have been working to achieve this
goal since at least 1986, and data from the
current workforce and education needs
report supports the necessity of such an
institution. More than a quarter of San
Diego County’s 2.24 million jobs require a
bachelor’s degree at entry. About 70% of
today’s priority occupations – those that
pay good wages and are accessible to
recent graduates – require a bachelor’s
degree. Across industries, a bachelor’s
degree can help workers command higher
wages at their jobs and a liberal arts
education typically encompasses many of
the soft skills employers say they want in
their employees, such as active learning,
23 Bernstein, L. (1986, April 1). South Bay Plans to Lure a University to the Area. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-04-01-me-1560-story.html. 23 critical thinking, and reading
comprehension.
Residents want degrees and are hopeful
about the ability to improve their lives
through education. Though there was no
difference by region of the county on
reported satisfaction with their ability to
get the job they want, South County
residents were significantly more likely to
report that a bachelor’s degree would
improve their job prospects. Approximately
40% of adult residents in the southern
parts of the county and about 27%
elsewhere in the county are interested in
enrolling in a bachelor’s degree program in
the near future.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 50
Content
Potential students were particularly
interested in studying business, technology,
healthcare, and the arts. When planning
programs, the academic planning
committee could:
Emphasize inclusion of programs focused
on business, technology, healthcare, and
the arts (e.g., adding healthcare careers is
in line with the future adjusted priority
programs and demand from prospective
students)
Emphasize applications within popular
industries (e.g., integrating technology
project content into project management
coursework).
When designing curricula, consider
emphasizing the skill sets that business
leaders in our study feel are lacking in
entry-level talent:
Adaptability
Problem-solving
Communication skills
Public speaking
Teaching
Interviewing skills
Networking
Technical skills
Engineering
Independence
Active learning
Project management
Flexible thinking skills
Creativity
Critical thinking
Active listening
Written communication
Reading comprehension
Social perceptiveness
Entrepreneurial skills
Software skills
San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation. (2023). Advancing San Diego. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegobusiness.org/about-edc/our-initiatives/advancing-san-diego/.
These skills offer an opportunity for new
programs to differentiate themselves from
current education offerings and provide a
head start for graduates. Consider also
incorporating the insights of Advancing San
Diego, which uses the talent pipeline
management framework to identify the in-
demand skills and competencies employers
in important local industries need in their
workforce.
When considering the short-term future,
business leaders were focused on growing
their businesses and improving their
processes. Imagining their industry in 50
years, business leaders were concerned
about the impacts of AI and other emerging
technologies, like virtual reality, robotics
and more. Ensuring that students have the
skills to use these emerging technologies,
interpret their outputs, and act ethically in a
workplace alongside automated agents will
help them prepare for this future.
24 24
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 51
They also offer a place for meeting,
socializing, and culture building with peers
and faculty, and student clubs and
organizations are a vital part of the
experience of many students.
To help prospective students commit to a
bachelor’s degree, reduce both direct and
opportunity costs. In addition to tuition
assistance, support for child and eldercare,
income replacement, and flexible schedules
can help mitigate the opportunity costs of a
bachelor’s degree for students. Online,
asynchronous classes allow students to do
their coursework around their work
schedules so they can earn an income while
they are attending school.
Structure
More than 60% of prospective students
prefer online asynchronous classes, and
residents cited opportunity costs as a
barrier to a degree. However, this doesn’t
mean that residents are interested in
perfunctory or easy classes: residents
interested in bachelor’s degree programs
are about equally motivated by self-
improvement benefits as financial ones.
This also does not negate the need for a
physical university. Institutions of higher
education offer a central location where
students can receive services such as
physical and mental health care, academic
advising and assistance, library services,
legal services, and meal assistance, to name
a few.
As programs grow, we recommend that the UNI committee consider prioritizing those that:
Lead to high-
quality, high-
demand jobs that
meet the
economic needs
of the future
(see Appendix III:
Future-Adjusted
Priority Occupations)
Meet needs that
are unmet by
existing public
universities in the
region
(see Table 2)
Build on
Southwestern
College’s
strengths and
existing programs
where possible by
making transfer
pathways from
SWC to the newly
created university
clear to students
and easy to
access
Appendix I:
Research Methodology
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 52
Resident Survey
We conducted a representative sample survey of 1,000 San Diego County residents from August 2023 to September 2023. The survey was offered online (available on both web and mobile browsers) in English and Spanish to adults (ages 18 and older). Respondents matched the target population on age, sex, and zip code of residence (see Figure 12).
Figure 12: Sample & Population Comparison- San Diego County Parker, K., Horowitz, J. M., Morin, R. (2015). Multiracial in America. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/06/11/multiracial-in-america/.
People who selected more than one race were counted in every category they selected with the exception of White. The White category only includes people who selected White and no other races. The total number of people exceeds 1,000 because of this inclusive count.
25 26
At PIC, we do not capture race in the same way the US Census Bureau does. The Census Bureau asks two separate questions, one about race (where respondents can select all that apply to five major categories – White, Black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, or Pacific Islander – or have the option to write in an answer under “Some other race”) and one about ethnicity (asking whether the respondent is of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin). Approximately two-thirds of Hispanic Americans consider their Latino identity to be part of their racial identity, so we include “Hispanic or Latina/o/x” among the racial identities survey respondents can select from. We also include the option “Middle Eastern or North African,” allow respondents to select as many options as apply to them, and do not prioritize Hispanic ethnicity when analyzing data on race. We believe our method of capturing race is more in line with people’s experiences but has a downside in that our counts are not directly comparable to the US Census population estimates. In Figure 13 we present an inclusive count of the number of people who responded to the survey by race. 25 26
*ACS 5-yr estimates
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 53
Business Survey
To gather information from business professionals, we conducted a web survey from September 2023 to October 2023. Surveys were available in English and Spanish. The San Diego Workforce Partnership invited San Diego County businesses to participate in the survey, Consejo de Desarrollo Económico de Tijuana and Centro Metropolitano de Información Económica y Empresarial invited businesses in Baja California to participate, and PIC researchers reached out directly to Orange County businesses to invite participation. We also engaged a panel survey company to get additional responses. In total, we received 131 responses from San Diego County businesses, 64 from Orange County businesses, and 17 from Baja California businesses.
Most of the respondents to the business survey represented private, for-profit businesses (see Figure 14). The industries represented are presented in Figure 15; the most common were retail trade; manufacturing; information; professional, scientific and technical; and construction.
Figure 14: Business Type
Figure 13: Respondent Race in Representative Sample Survey of San Diego County Residents *Inclusive count
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 54
Priority Occupations
As described in the report, we started with a list of preliminary priority occupations which met our standards for job market demand and job quality in 2023:
1. Have 50 or more average openings per year
2. Require less than five years of work experience at entry
3. Require a bachelor’s degree or less at entry
4. Pay a self-sustaining wage at entry
Figure 15: Industry of Responding Businesses
Business Focus Groups
We collected data about employers’ hiring needs and ideas about the future of their industries. We conducted three focus groups with a total of nine participants. One participant was a sole proprietor who occasionally hires help, one business employed 350 people, two participants worked for organizations with more than a thousand employees, and the rest ranged between four and 28 employees. All these businesses were located in South San Diego County. Focus groups lasted between thirty minutes and one hour and were conducted virtually.
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 55
Then, we used business concerns from the focus groups and a literature review to identify eight trends that we expect to impact the local job market over the next 10 years. Each trend could have more than one type of impact on occupations. Those trends included:
Automation: Increasing integration of machine learning-based tools across industries.
Includes recommendation algorithms, image and text generation, K means/clustering, image recognition, and more. Although most of these innovations are implemented in software, this trend includes some additional robotics as well.
1. Harm: Automation could replace a substantial number of jobs in a given occupation (this could be software automation, robotics, or both). a.
Smaller harm: Automation could deskill an occupation by replacing human labor with automated labor for some tasks, but not all.
b.
Benefit: Demand for jobs necessary to build or manage automated tools will likely increase.
c.
Marketization of previously unpaid domestic work: Increasingly, the economy is monetizing or professionalizing tasks that were previously done by household members without pay. For example, grocery delivery and early childhood care (UTK) both increase the number of people being paid for previously unpaid labor. We expect this trend to continue as adult household members staying at home becomes increasingly unaffordable and gig work continues to be a flexible way to create and supplement income.
2. Small benefit: Although there will increasingly be opportunities to make money doing these previously unpaid jobs, thus far such jobs are low-quality. For example, many provide low wages (e.g., childcare) and many don’t offer stable hours or key benefits like health insurance (e.g., gig work).
a.
California employment law changes: In response to the marketization of previously unpaid domestic labor and automation, California is continuing to change its employment law. For example, AB 701 and AB 1651 regulate the use of certain technologies in the workplace, and new laws protect trucking and app-based delivery workers from being misclassified. Additional labor may be required to accomplish or document compliance with these laws.
3. Small benefit: Additional regulations will add additional demand for workers to comply and document compliance. We expect these effects will be persistent if the regulations add complexity. This impact is small because we expect that in most cases, it will simply expand the scope of existing workers and will add a small number of additional jobs.
a.
Aging Population: The increasing average age of the population due to birth rates over time and increased life expectancy will increase the need for services of all kinds except those primarily used by young people and increase demand for healthcare.
4. Benefit: An aging population will likely increase the demand for healthcare.a.
Benefit: An aging population will likely increase the demand for most services.b.
Energy Efficiency Improvements: Increasing concern about climate change and laws (especially CA state laws) drive the implementation of energy efficiency technologies.
5. San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 56
4. Energy Efficiency Improvements: Increasing concern about climate change and laws (especially California state laws) drive the implementation of energy efficiency technologies.
5. Benefit: Some jobs’ outlook will be improved by increased demand for the development and installation of energy efficiency technologies. a.
Small harm: Jobs involved in the provision of energy may be harmed by the implementation of energy efficiency technologies. This harm is somewhat mitigated by increased demand created by increased electrification and the federal programs designed to support these workers to reskill for related occupations. b.
California moving away from fossil fuels: In response to climate goals, resources are being directed toward ambitious expansion in green energy. In 10 years, we expect more jobs in green energy provision such as solar, wind, and hydropower. We expect fossil fuel jobs to continue to contract as California moves towards electric vehicles and residential heating/cooking.
6. Harm: We expect less demand for workers procuring, treating, transporting, or selling fossil fuels.
a.
Harm: We expect less demand for workers who specialize in repairing and maintaining internal combustion engines across the state.
b.
Benefit: Jobs related to battery manufacturing, electric vehicle charging, electric vehicle repair, generating clean energy, and electrifying buildings currently heated by fossil fuels.
c.
Impacts of climate change: global temperatures are likely to continue to rise, increasing fires, floods, wildfires, and food shortages. We expect this to result in increasing demand for recovery after these disasters and enhancement of infrastructure against future disasters.
7. Benefit: We anticipate increased demand for workers in disaster relief or climate resilience.
a.
Nearshoring: We expect companies to continue to move manufacturing to Mexico to reduce logistical costs and risks from supply chain disruptions. Note that this trend does not predict an increase in goods manufactured, but rather a small number of additional jobs to enact and facilitate manufacturing in Mexico.
8. Benefit: A small number of jobs needed to facilitate nearshoring will experience a long- lasting, positive impact.
a.
We started with two sets of occupations: those in the preliminary priority occupations list and all other occupations that met our priority occupations criteria except for lacking sufficient average annual job openings or providing a self-sustaining wage. Occupations on the preliminary occupations list were assumed to be included in the future-adjusted priority occupations list unless they were net-negatively impacted by future trends. Other occupations were only included if they were net-benefited by future trends. For example, if an occupation was harmed by a trend listed above as a “small harm” but benefited by a trend listed as a “benefit,” it was included because the benefit outweighs the small harm. If an occupation was harmed and benefited by trends with the same weight (e.g., a “benefit” and a “harm” or a “small benefit” and a “small harm”) it was not included on the future adjusted list.
Registered nurses
Software developers
Project mgmt. specialists
Elem. teachers, exc. special ed.
Sales managers
Licensed practical & vocational nurses
Medical & health services managers
Police & sheriff's patrol officers
Executive secretaries & admin. assistants
Paralegals & legal assistants
Secondary teachers, exc. special & CTE
Compliance officers
Computer systems analysts
First-line supers. of mechanics, etc.
Logisticians
Civil engineers
Aircraft mechanics & service technicians
Biological scientists, all other
Electrical & electronic engineering techs.
Sales reps., technical & scientific products
Operating engineers & other construction ops.
Mechanical engineers
Engineers, all other
Legal secretaries & Admin. assistants
Computer hardware engineers
Network & computer systems admins.
Admin. services managers
Cost estimators
Computer programmers
Airline pilots, copilots, & flight engineers
Industrial engineers
Software QA analysts & testers
Detectives & criminal investigators
Data scientists
Claims adjusters, examiners, & investigators
Electrical Engineers
Engineering techs., exc. drafters, all other
Social science research assistants
Correctional officers & jailers
Electronics engineers, exc. computer
Facilities managers
Dental hygienists
Physical therapist assistants
Midddle school teachers, exc. special & CTE
0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000
Appendix II:
Preliminary Priority
Occupations
Average annual openings, 2023-2033
2,364
530
314
207
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 57
Appendix II:
Preliminary Priority
Occupations (continued)
Chemists
Information security analysts
Commercial pilots
Transportation security screeners
Aerospace engineers
Occupational health & safety specialists
Education admins., all other
Environ. scientists & specialists, inc. health
Radiologic techs.
Special ed. teachers, kinder. & elem. school
Operations research analysts
Special ed. teachers, secondary school
Civil engineering techs.
Avionics technicians
Technical writers
Water & waste. treatment plant & system ops.
Probation officers & correctional treat. special.
Captains, mates, & pilots of water vessels
Respiratory therapists
Electronics repairers, commercial & industrial
Comp., benefits, & job analysis specialists
Surgical technologists
Occupational therapy assistants
Public safety telecommunicators
Microbiologists
Sales engineers
Electrical power-line installers & repairers
Aircraft struc., surfaces, rigging, & sys. assemb.
Adult basic ed., sec. ed., & ESL instructors
First-line supervisors of police & detectives
Industrial engineering techs
Insurance underwriters
Air traffic controllers
Environmental engineers
Database administrators
Diagnostic medical sonographers
Credit analysts
Mechanical engineering techs.
Explosives workers, ord. experts, & blasters
Budget analysts
Ctrl. & valve installers & repair., exc. mech.door
Aerospace engineering & operations techs.
Social scientists & related workers, all other
0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000
Average annual openings, 2023-2033
190
101
78 53
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 58
Appendix III:
Future-Adjusted Priority
Occupations
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 59
The figure on the next page demonstrates
the impact of current trends on future
occupations. We used business concerns
from the focus groups and a literature
review to identify trends that we expect to
impact the local job market over the next 10
years. These trends are included in the
broad categories identified in the visual
below: the environment, including disaster
relief and climate resilience; technology,
including automation; demographics,
including the aging of the population; and
legal changes, like increasing employment
law complexity. Trends may have a
combination of positive, negative, or
intersecting effects on future occupations.
We estimate their impact by classifying
expected effects into “harm,” “small harm,”
“benefit,” and “small benefit.” For more
information on how we estimated impact,
refer to the section on Priority Occupations
in Appendix I: Research Methodology.
In the visual below, this is represented by
the color-coded plus and minus signs. For
example, we expect technology will have a
negative impact on Claims adjusters,
examiners, and investigators. Legal and
demographic trends, however, are
expected to have a positive impact on this
occupation. The color-coded lines connect
the trend category and the occupations
likely to be affected by the future trends. In
the top center box, for example, we see the
tag for the environment, which has five
lines connecting it to different occupation
groups. From left to right, we see it first
connect to the box which includes Civil
engineering technologists and technicians,
which is expected to be impacted
positively by the environment and
negatively by technology. The next line
connects to a group of occupations
including Civil engineers, which is mostly
expected to be impacted positively by the
environment, followed by the tag
connecting to Environmental scientists and
specialists and others, where environmental
and demographic trends are expected to
have a positive impact. Next, we see this
box connected to Claims adjusters,
examiners, and investigators, expected to
increase due to environmental trends,
Finally, the environment connects to Cost
estimators and Insurance underwriters,
which we expect to be impacted positively
by environmental, legal, and demographic
trends.
We also identified which occupations from
our original list of priority occupations
would be unimpacted by the previously
mentioned trends, ranging from aerospace
engineers and avionics technicians to
elementary school teachers and probation
officers. For a full list of possible
unimpacted occupations, see the list
“Preliminary priority occupations that were
unaffected by future projections.”
Occupational health & safety specialists
Paralegals & legal assistants
Labor relations specialists
Legal secretaries & administrative assistants
Environmental scientists & specialists, including health Facilities managers
Logisticians
Public safety telecommunicators
Registered nurses
Respiratory therapists
Project mgmt. specialists; Dental hygienists; Diagnostic medical sonographers; Radiologic techs. & technicians; Licensed practical & vocational nurses; Occupational therapy assts.; Physical therapist assts.; Microbiologists; Biological scientists, all other; Chemists; Gambling managers, Food scientists & techs.; Radiation therapists; Nuclear medicine techs.; MRI techs., Medical dosimetrists; First-line supers. of protective service wrkrs., all other; Recreational therapists; Exercise physiologists; Therapists, all other; Clinical laboratory techs. & technicians; cardiovascular techs. & technicians; EMTs; Paramedics; Dietetic techs., Pharmacy techs., Psychiatric techs., Veterinary techs. & technicians; Ophthalmic medical techs.; Medical records specialists; Opticians; Dispensing; Hearing aid specialists; Health techs. & technicians, all other; Health info. techs. & medical registrars; Athletic trainers; Surgical assistants; Healthcare practitioners & technical wrkrs., all other; Home health & personal care aides; Nursing assts.; Orderlies; Psychiatric aides; Occupational therapy aides; Physical therapist aides; Massage therapists; Dental assts.; Medical assts.; Medical equip. preparers; Pharmacy aides; Veterinary assts. & lab. animal caretakers; Phlebotomists; Healthcare support wrkrs., all other
Comp., benefits, & job analysis specialists
Education admin., all other
Medical & health services managers
Compliance officers
Executive secretaries & admin. assistants
Legal secretaries & admin. assistants
Claims adjusters, examiners, invest.
Computer systems analysts
Information security analysts
Database administrators
Network & computer systems admin.
Computer programmers
Software developers
Software Q.A. analysts & testers
Technical writers
Sales engineers (+)
Mechanical engineers (+)
Social science research assistants
Industrial engineering techs. & technicians
Mechanical eng. techs. & technicians
Financial examiners
Tax examiners & collectors, & revenue agents
Database architects (+)
Actuaries
Budget Analysts
LEGAL
Employment law complexity
Civil engineers; Computer hardware eng.; Electrical eng.; First-line Supers. of police & detectives; Police & sheriff's patrol officers; Operating eng. & other construction equip. operators; Explosives workers; Ordnance handling experts, & blasters; First-line supers. of mechanics, installers, & repairers (-); Electrical power-line installers & repairers; Water & wastewater treatment plant & system operators; Elect. eng., exc. comp.; Environmental eng.; Insurance appraisers, auto damage; Bioengineers & biomedical eng.; Chemical eng.; Agricultural eng.; Electronics eng., exc. computer; Materials eng.; Mining & geological eng., inc. , mining safety eng.; Nuclear eng.; Petroleum eng. (-); Calibration techs. & technicians; Foresters; Atmospheric & space scientists; Materials scientists; Geoscientists, exc. hydrologists & geographers; Geographers; Hydrologic techs.; First-line supers. of firefighting & prevention works.; Forest fire inspectors & prevention specialists; Transit & railroad police; Electrical & electronics repairers; Powerhouse, substation, & relay; Millwrights; Nuclear power reactor operators; Power distributors & dispatchers; Power plant operators; Petroleum pump system operators (-); Refinery operators & gaugers; Computer numerically controlled tool programmers Cost estimators
Insurance underwriters
Civil engineering techs. & technicians
Data scientists
Electrical & electronic eng. tech. & technicians,
exc. drafters, all other
Electro-mechanical and mechatronics
techs. & technicians (-/+)
Industrial engineers
Operations research analysts
Mechanical engineers (-/+)
Admin. services managers
Adult basic ed., adult secondary ed., & English
as a second language instructors
Medical transcriptionists
Sales managers
Sales reps., wholesale & manufacturing,
technical & scientific products
Surgical transcriptionists
ENVIRONMENT
Disaster relief and Climate Resilience
Energy Efficiency Upgrades
Electrification
TECHNOLOGY
Automation
DEMOGRAPHICS
Aging Population
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 60
(+/-)
(-)
(-/+)
(+)
(+/+)
(+)
(+/+)
(+/+/+)
(-/+/+/+)
(-/+)
(-/+/+)
(+)
Preliminary priority occupations that were unaffected by future projections:
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 61
Agriculture, general
Ag. mech. & equip./machine tech./technician
International agriculture
Food science
Food technology & processing
Brewing science
AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS, & RELATED SCIENCES Appendix IV:
Priority Academic Programs
Viticulture & enology
Zymology/fermentation science
Food science & technology, other
Soil microbiology
Veterinary administrative services, general
Veterinary office mgmt./administration
NATURAL RESOURCES & CONSERVATION
Natural resources/conservation, general
Environmental studies
Environmental science
Environ./nat. resources mgmt. & policy, general
Environmental/natural resources law
enforcement & protective services
Energy & environmental policy
Forestry, general
Forest sciences & biology
Forest mgmt./forest resources mgmt.
Urban forestry
Forest resources production & mgmt.
Wood sci. & wood products/pulp & paper
tech./technician
Forestry, other
Computer & information sciences, general
Artificial intelligence
Information technology
Informatics
Computer programming/programmer, general
Computer programming, specific applications
Computer programming, vendor/product cert.
Computer game programming
Computer programming, specific platforms
Computer programming, other
Information science/studies
COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES & SUPPORT SERVICES
Computer systems analysis/analyst
Computer science
Data modeling/warehousing & DB admin.
Computer graphics
Modeling, virtual environs. & simulation
Computer systems networking & telecom.
Cloud computing
Network & system admin./administrator
Sys., networking, & LAN/WAN mgmt./mgr.
Computer & ISS auditing/info. assurance
Information technology project mgmt.
PERSONAL & CULINARY SERVICES
Culinary science/culinology
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 62
Bilingual & multilingual education
Multicultural education
Bilingual, multilingual, & multicultural ed., other
Educational leadership & admin., general
Administration of special education
Adult & continuing education administration
Edu., instructional, & curriculum supervision
Higher education/higher education admin.
Urban education & leadership
Superintendency & educational system admin.
International school administration/leadership
Education entrepreneurship
Educational admin. & supervision, other
Educational evaluation & research
Educational statistics & research methods
Ed. assessment, testing, & measurement
Learning sciences
Ed. assessment, evaluation, & research, other
Special education & teaching, general
Education/teaching of individuals with hearing
impairments including deafness
Education/teaching of individuals with
intellectual disabilities
Education/teaching of individuals with
orthopedic & physical health impairments
Education/teaching of individuals with specific
learning disabilities
Education/teaching of individuals who are
developmentally delayed
Education/teaching of individuals in secondary
special education programs
Teaching English as a second or foreign
language/ESL language instructor
Teaching English or French as a second or
foreign language, other
Education/teaching of individuals with autism
Chemistry teacher education
Drama & dance teacher education
French language teacher education
German language teacher education
Adult & continuing education & teaching
Elementary education & teaching
Secondary education & teaching
Teacher education, multiple levels
Montessori teacher education
Waldorf/Steiner teacher education
EDUCATION
Early childhood education & teaching
Online educator/online teaching
International teaching & learning
STEM educational methods
Art teacher education
Driver & safety teacher education
English/language arts teacher education
Foreign language teacher education
Health teacher education
Family & consumer sci./home ec., teacher ed.
Tech. teacher ed./industrial arts teacher ed.
Mathematics teacher education
Music teacher education
Physical education teaching & coaching
Reading teacher education
Science teacher ed./gen. Science teacher ed.
Social science teacher education
Social studies teacher education
Computer teacher education
Biology teacher education
Education/teaching of individuals with
emotional disturbances
Education/teaching of individuals with multiple
disabilities
Education/teaching of individuals with vision
impairments including blindness
Education/teaching of individuals with speech
or language impairments
Education/teaching of individuals with
traumatic brain injuries
Junior high/intermediate/middle school
education & teaching
Teaching French as a 2nd or foreign language
Communication arts & literature teacher
education
Speech teacher education
Geography teacher education
Latin teacher education
Psychology teacher education
Earth science teacher education
Environmental education
Spanish language teacher education
Health occupations teacher education
History teacher education
Physics teacher education
Adult literacy tutor/instructor
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 63
Engineering, general
Applied engineering
Aerospace, aeronautical, & astronautical/space
engineering, general
Astronautical engineering
Mechanical engineering
Agricultural engineering
Architectural engineering
Bioengineering & biomedical engineering
Ceramic sciences & engineering
Chemical engineering
Chemical & biomolecular engineering
Chemical engineering, other
Civil engineering, general
Geotechnical & geoenvironmental engineering
Structural engineering
Transportation & highway engineering
Water resources engineering
Civil engineering, other
Computer engineering, general
Computer hardware engineering
Computer software engineering
Electrical & electronics engineering
Laser & optical engineering
Telecommunications engineering
Electrical, electronics, & comms. eng., other
Engineering mechanics
Engineering physics/applied physics
Engineering science
ENGINEERING
Environmental/environ. health engineering
Materials engineering
Aerospace, aeronautical, & astronautical/space
engineering, other
Metallurgical engineering
Mining & mineral engineering
Nuclear engineering
Ocean engineering
Systems engineering
Textile sciences & engineering
Polymer/plastics engineering
Construction engineering
Forest engineering
Industrial engineering
Manufacturing engineering
Operations research
Surveying engineering
Geological/geophysical engineering
Paper science & engineering
Electromechanical engineering
Mechatronics, robotics, & automation eng.
Biochemical engineering
Engineering chemistry
Biological/biosystems engineering
Electrical & computer engineering
Energy systems engineering, general
Power plant engineering
Energy systems engineering, other
Engineering, other
Engineering technologies/technicians, general
Applied engineering technologies/technicians
Architectural engineering tech./technicians
Civil engineering technologies/technicians
Water quality & wastewater treatment mgmt. &
recycling technology/technician
Laser & optical technology/technician
Telecommunications technology/technician
Integrated circuit design tech./technician
Audio engineering technology/technician
Electrical/electronic eng. tech./technicians,
other
Biomedical technology/technician
Computer software technology/technician
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS
Occ. safety & health technology/technician.
Industrial safety technology/technician
Process safety technology/technician
Aeronautical/aerospace eng. tech./technician
Mechanical/mechanical engineering
technology/technician
Auto. engineering technology/technician
Marine engineering technology/technician
Motorsports engineering tech./technician
Mech. eng. related tech./technicians, other
Mining technology/technician
Construction engineering tech./technician
Hydraulics & fluid power technology/technician
Computer engineering technology/technician
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 64
Instrumentation technology/technician
Robotics technology/technician
Automation engineer technology/technician
Mechatronics, robotics, & automation
engineering technology/technician
Electromechanical tech./technicians, other
HVAC & refrigeration eng. tech./technician
Electrical, elec., & comm. eng. tech./technician
Environmental control tech./technicians, other
Plastics & polymer engineering tech./technician
Metallurgical technology/technician
Industrial technology/technician
Manufacturing engineering tech./technician
Welding engineering technology/technician
Chemical engineering technology/technician
Semiconductor manufacturing tech./technician
Composite materials technology/technician
Industrial production tech./technicians, other
ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS CONTINUED
Computer/comp. systems tech./technician
Computer hardware technology/technician
Electromechanical/electromechanical
engineering technology/technician
Computer eng. tech./technicians, other
Nuclear engineering technology/technician
Engineering/industrial management
Engineering design
Packaging science
Nanotechnology
Energy systems technology/technician
Power plant technology/technician
Solar energy technology/technician
Wind energy technology/technician
Hydroelectric energy technology/technician
Geothermal energy technology/technician
Energy systems tech./technicians, other
FOREIGN LANGUAGES, LITERATURES, & LINGUISTICS
Foreign languages & literatures, general
Linguistic, comparative, & related language
studies & services, other
East Asian languages, lit., & linguistics, gen.
Chinese language & literature
Japanese language & literature
Korean language & literature
East Asian languages, lit., & linguistics, other
Russian language & literature
Germanic languages, lit., & linguistics, general
German language & literature
Germanic languages, literature, & linguistics,
other
Romance languages, lit., & linguistics, general
French language & literature
Italian language & literature
Spanish language & literature
American Indian/Native American languages,
literatures, & linguistics
Romance languages, lit., & linguistics, other
Arabic language & literature
Hebrew language & literature
Classics & classical lang., lit., & linguistics, gen.
Ancient/classical Greek language & literature
Latin language & literature
Classics & classical lang., lit., & linguistics, other
Hawaiian language & literature
Southeast Asian & Australasian/Pacific
languages, literatures, & linguistics, other
American Sign Language (ASL)
Linguistics of ASL & other sign languages
Foreign languages, lit., & linguistics, other
Family & consumer sciences/human sci.,
general
Consumer merchandising/retailing mgmt.
FAMILY & CONSUMER SCIENCES/HUMAN SCIENCES
Facilities planning & management
Adult development & aging
Textile science
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 65
LEGAL PROFESSIONS & STUDIES
Legal studies
Legal administrative assistant/secretary
Legal assistant/paralegal
English language & literature, general
ENGLISH LANGUAGE & LITERATURE/LETTERS
BIOLOGICAL & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES
Biology/biological sciences, general
Molecular biology
Structural biology
Photobiology
Radiation biology/radiobiology
Biochemistry & molecular biology
Biochemistry, biophysics & molecular bio., other
Botany/plant biology
Plant pathology/phytopathology
Plant physiology
Plant molecular biology
Botany/plant biology, other
Cell/cellular biology & histology
Anatomy
Developmental biology & embryology
Cell/cellular & molecular biology
Cell biology & anatomy
Cell/cellular biology & anatomical sciences,
other
Microbiology, general
Medical microbiology & bacteriology
Virology
Parasitology
Mycology
Immunology
Microbiology & immunology
Infectious disease & global health
Microbiological sciences & immunology, other
Entomology
Animal physiology
Genetics, general
Molecular genetics
Microbial & eukaryotic genetics
Animal genetics
Plant genetics
Genome sciences/genomics
Genetics, other
Exercise physiology & kinesiology
Pathology/experimental pathology
Pharmacology
Toxicology
Molecular toxicology
Environmental toxicology
Biometry/biometrics
Biostatistics
Bioinformatics
Computational biology
Biomath., bioinformatics, & comp. bio., other
Biotechnology
Ecology
Marine biology & biological oceanography
Evolutionary biology
Aquatic biology/limnology
Environmental biology
Population biology
Conservation biology
Systematic biology/biological systematics
Ecology & evolutionary biology
Epidemiology & biostatistics
Ecology, evo., systematics & pop. bio., other
Neuroscience
Neuroanatomy
Neurobiology & anatomy
Neurobiology & behavior
Neurobiology & neurosciences, other
Biological & biomedical sciences, other
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 66
Mathematics, general
Applied mathematics, general
Computational mathematics
Computational & applied mathematics
Financial mathematics
Mathematical biology
MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS
Applied mathematics, other
Statistics, general
Mathematical statistics & probability
Mathematics & statistics
Applied statistics, general
Mathematics & statistics, other
MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES
Signal/geospatial intelligence
Engineering acoustics
Operational oceanography
Undersea warfare
Aerospace ground equipment technology
Air & space operations technology
Radar communications & systems technology
Biological & physical sciences
Peace studies & conflict resolution
Mathematics & computer science
Biopsychology
Gerontology
Historic preservation & conservation, general
Historic preservation & conservation, other
Accounting & computer science
Behavioral sciences
Nutrition sciences
Holocaust & related studies
Intercultural/multicultural & diversity studies
Cultural studies/critical theory & analysis
Human biology
Dispute resolution
Computational science
Marine sciences
Sustainability studies
Anthrozoology
Climate science
Cultural studies & comparative literature
MULTI/INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDIES
Earth systems science
Economics & computer science
Economics & foreign language/literature
Environmental geosciences
Geoarchaeology
Geobiology
Geography & environmental studies
History & language/literature
History & political science
Linguistics & anthropology
Linguistics & computer science
Mathematics & atmospheric/oceanic science
Philosophy, politics, & economics
Data science, general
Data science, other
Data analytics, general
Business analytics
Data visualization
Financial analytics
Data analytics, other
PARKS, RECREATION, LEISURE, & FITNESS STUDIES
Parks, recreation, & leisure facilities mgmt., gen. Exercise science & kinesiology San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 67
Physical sciences, general
Atmospheric sciences & meteorology, general
Atmospheric chemistry & climatology
Atmospheric physics & dynamics
Meteorology
Atmospheric sciences & meteorology, other
Chemistry, general
Analytical chemistry
Inorganic chemistry
Organic chemistry
Physical chemistry
Polymer chemistry
Chemical physics
Environmental chemistry
Forensic chemistry
PHYSICAL SCIENCES
Theoretical chemistry
Cheminformatics/chemistry informatics
Chemistry, other
Geology/earth science, general
Geochemistry
Geophysics & seismology
Paleontology
Hydrology & water resources science
Geochemistry & petrology
Oceanography, chemical & physical
Geological & earth sciences/geosciences, other
Physics, general
Materials science
Materials chemistry
Materials sciences, other
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS
Science technologies/technicians, general
Nuclear/nuclear power technology/technician
Physical science tech./technicians, other
Science technologies/technicians, other
Psychology, general
Behavioral neuroscience
PSYCHOLOGY
Psychometrics & quantitative psychology
SECURITY & PROTECTIVE SERVICES
Criminal justice & corrections, general
Corrections
Criminal justice/law enforcement admin.
Criminal justice/safety studies
Criminal justice/police science
Security & loss prevention services
Juvenile corrections
Securities services administration/management
Law enforcement investigation & interviewing
Law enforce., record-keeping & evidence mgmt.
Critical incident response/special police ops.
Protective services operations
Suspension & debarment investigation
Maritime law enforcement
Cultural/archaeological resources protection
Corrections & criminal justice, other
Fire prevention & safety technology/technician
Fire services administration
Fire science/Firefighting
Fire/arson investigation & prevention
Fire protection, other
Homeland security
Crisis/emergency/disaster management
Critical infrastructure protection
Terrorism & counterterrorism operations
Homeland security, other
Security science & technology, general
Criminalistics & criminal science
Cyber/computer forensics & counterterrorism
Cybersecurity defense strategy/policy
Financial forensics & fraud investigation
Geospatial intelligence
Law enforcement intelligence analysis
Security science & technology, other
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 68
Public policy analysis, general
Education policy analysis
Health policy analysis
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & SOCIAL SERVICES PROFESSIONS
International policy analysis
Social work
SOCIAL SCIENCES
Social sciences, general
Research methodology & quantitative methods
Survey research/methodology
Social sciences, other
Demography & population studies
Applied demography
Demography, other
Economics, general
Applied economics
Econometrics & quantitative economics
Development economics & international dev.
Geography
Geographic information science & cartography
Geography, other
Political science & government, general
American government & politics (US)
Canadian government & politics
Political economy
Political science & government, other
Sociology, general
Applied/public sociology
Geography & anthropology
Social sciences, other
Elec. & power trans. installation/installer, general
Lineworker
Electrical & power transmission installers, other
Building/property maintenance
CONSTRUCTION TRADES
Building/construction site mgmt./manager
Building construction technology/technician
Well drilling/driller
Blasting/blaster
MECHANIC & REPAIR TECHNOLOGIES/TECHNICIANS
Mechanics & repairers, general
Computer installation & repair tech./technician
Industrial electronics technology/technician
Electrical/electronics maintenance & repair
technologies/technicians, other
Heavy equipment maintenance
technology/technician
Industrial mechanics & maintenance
technology/technician
Vehicle maintenance & repair
technology/technician, general
Autobody/collision & repair
technology/technician
Airframe mechanics & aircraft maintenance
technology/technician
Aircraft powerplant technology/technician
Avionics maintenance technology/technician
Recreation vehicle (RV) service technician
High performance & custom engine
technician/mechanic
Energy systems installation & repair
technology/technician
Solar energy system installation & repair
technology/technician
Wind energy system installation & repair
technology/technician
Hydroelectric energy system installation &
repair technology/technician
Geothermal energy system installation & repair
technology/technician
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 69
Computer numerically controlled (CNC)
machinist technology/CNC machinist
PRECISION PRODUCTION
TRANSPORTATION & MATERIALS MOVING
Airline/commercial/prof. pilot & flight crew
Air traffic controller
Construction/heavy equipment/earthmoving
equipment operation
Flight instructor
Mobile crane operator/operation
Commercial fishing
Marine science/merchant marine officer
VISUAL & PERFORMING ARTS
Art/art studies, general Music, general
HEALTH PROFESSIONS & RELATED CLINICAL SCIENCES
Dental assisting/assistant
Health/health care administration/management
Dental hygiene/hygienist
Hospital & health care facilities admin./mgmt.
Health unit coordinator/ward clerk
Health unit manager/ward supervisor
Health info./med. records admin./administrator
Health info./med. records
technology/technician
Medical transcription/transcriptionist
Medical office computer specialist/assistant
Medical/health mgmt. & clinical asst./specialist
Medical insurance coding specialist/coder
Medical insurance specialist/medical biller
Health/medical claims examiner
Medical staff services technology/technician
Long term care administration/management
Clinical research coordinator
Regulatory science/affairs
Disease registry data management
Healthcare innovation
Healthcare info., privacy assurance & security
Health & medical administrative services, other
Medical/clinical assistant
Occupational therapist assistant
Pharmacy technician/assistant
Physical therapy assistant
Anesthesiologist assistant
Pathology/pathologist assistant
Medicinal & pharmaceutical chemistry
Pharmacoeconomics/pharmaceutical econ.
Clinical, hospital, & managed care pharmacy
Pharmaceutical marketing & management
Public health, general
Environmental health
Occupational health & industrial hygiene
Community health & preventive medicine
International public health/international health
Health services administration
Patient safety & healthcare quality
Public health genetics
Public health, other
Rehab. & therapeutic professions, general
Art therapy/therapist
Dance therapy/therapist
Music therapy/therapist
Therapeutic recreation/recreational therapy
Kinesiotherapy/kinesiotherapist
Assistive/augmentative tech. & rehab. Eng.
Animal-assisted therapy
Drama therapy/therapist
Horticulture therapy/therapist
Play therapy/therapist
Rehab. & therapeutic professions, other
Health aide
Medication aide
Rehabilitation aide
Physical therapy technician/aide
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 70
HEALTH PROFESSIONS & RELATED CLINICAL SCIENCES CONTINUED Respiratory therapy technician/assistant
Chiropractic technician/assistant
Radiologist assistant
Lactation consultant
Speech-language pathology assistant
Allied health & medical assisting services, other
Cardiovascular technology/technologist
Electrocardiograph technology/technician
Electroneurodiagnostic/
electroencephalographic technology/
technologist
Asian bodywork therapy
Nuclear medical technology/technologist
Perfusion technology/perfusionist
Medical radiologic tech./sci. - radiation
therapist
Respiratory care therapy/therapist
Surgical technology/technologist
Gene/genetic therapy
Radiologic technology/science - radiographer
Diagnostic med. sonography/sonographer &
ultrasound tech.
Polysomnography
Hearing instrument specialist
Mammography technology/technician
MRI tech./technician
Hyperbaric medicine technology/technician
Intraoperative neuromonitoring tech./technician
Orthopedic technology/technician
Optometric technician/assistant
Phlebotomy technician/phlebotomist
Renal/dialysis technologist/technician
Sterile processing technology/technician
Psychiatric/mental health services technician
Opticianry/ophthalmic dispensing optician
Allied health diagnostic, intervention, &
treatment professions, other
Ophthalmic technician/technologist
Orthoptics/orthoptist
Pharmacy administration & pharmacy policy &
regulatory affairs
Pharmacy
Cardiopulmonary technology/technologist
Radiation protection/health physics technician
Medical informatics
Bioethics/medical ethics
Medical/health humanities
Arts in medicine/health
Health profess. ed., ethics, & humanities, other
Traditional Chinese medicine & herbology
Massage therapy/therapeutic massage
Emergency medical technology/technician
(EMT paramedic)
Somatic bodywork
Somatic bodywork & related services, other
Movement therapy & movement education
Herbalism/herbalist
Registered nursing/registered nurse
Nursing administration
Adult health nurse/nursing
Family practice nurse/nursing
Maternal/child health & neonatal nurse/nursing
Nursing science
Pediatric nurse/nursing
Psychiatric/mental health nurse/nursing
Public health/community nurse/nursing
Periop./op. room & surgical nurse/nursing
Clinical nurse specialist
Critical care nursing
Occupational & environmental health nursing
Emergency room/trauma nursing
Nursing practice
Palliative care nursing
Clinical nurse leader
Geriatric nurse/nursing
Women's health nurse/nursing
Forensic nursing
Registered nursing, nursing administration,
nursing research & clinical nursing, other
Licensed practical/vocational nurse training
Nursing assistant/aide & patient care asst./aide
Practical nursing, vocational nursing & nursing
assistants, other
Business/commerce, general
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT, MARKETING, & RELATED SUPPORT SERVICES Finance, general
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 71
Business admin. & management, general
Purchasing, procurement/acquisitions &
contracts management
Logistics, materials, & supply chain
management
Office management & supervision
Operations management & supervision
Non-profit/public/organizational management
Customer service management
Research & development management
Project management
Research administration
Risk management
Science/technology management
Accounting
Accounting & finance
Admin. assistant & secretarial science, general
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT, MARKETING, & RELATED SUPPORT SERVICES CONTINUED Executive assistant/executive secretary
Public finance
Human resources management/personnel
administration, general
Hotel/motel administration/management
Casino management
Financial risk management
Labor & industrial relations
Labor studies
Management information systems, general
Management science
Business statistics
Actuarial science
Marketing/marketing management, general
Insurance
Selling skills & sales operations
Construction project management
HISTORY
History, general American history (United States)
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 72
We thank you for your
ongoing support of the
University Now Initiative.
The San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center
would like to thank Southwestern College and the City
of Chula Vista for their trust and generous support in
completing this project. Many thanks to
Assemblymember Alvarez, Senator Padilla, and their
teams for championing the University Now Initiative.
Thanks to Consejo de Desarrollo Económico de
Tijuana and Centro Metropolitano de Información
Económica y Empresarial for sharing the business
survey with their colleagues in Baja California and the San Diego Workforce Partnership for sharing the
business survey and conducting focus groups with their
colleagues in San Diego County. PIC would also like to
thank participating universities for sharing their
program data.
Acknowledgements
Alicia L. Jurek, Ph.D., Economist
Karen L. Boyd, Ph.D., Economist & Director of Research
Gabriela Gonzalez Martinez, B.A., Economic Analyst
Niloufar Nasrollahzadeh, M.P.P., Data Analyst
Daniel Enemark, Ph.D., Chief Economist
This report was authored by the San Diego Regional
Policy & Innovation Center:
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center 73