555 W. BEECH STREET, SUITE 460 SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA 92101 PHONE 619.718.9500 24094.kal WWW.KEYSERMARSTON.COM 11216.025.001
ADVISORS IN:
REAL ESTATE
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
BERKELEY
DEBBIE M. KERN
DAVID DOEZEMA
LOS ANGELES
KATHLEEN H. HEAD
KEVIN E. ENGSTROM
JULIE L. ROMEY
TIM BRETZ
SAN DIEGO
PAUL C. MARRA
LINNIE A. GAVINO
EMERITUS
A. JERRY KEYSER
TIMOTHY C. KELLY
MEMO
RANDUM
To:
Laura C. Black, AICP, Director of Development Services
City of Chula Vista
Fr
om: KEYSER MARSTON ASSOCIATES, INC.
Da
te: November 4, 2024
Subj
ect: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis
I. INTR
ODUCTION
Th
e City of Chula Vista (City) has requested
that Keyser Marston Associates, Inc. (KMA)
estimate the economic impacts associated
with a proposed rezone of 16.59 acres (Project
Site) within the Otay Ranch Town Center
(Town Center Site). As background, Brookfield
Properties (Applicant) proposes to rezone the
Site from Freeway Commercial (FC 1) to
Mixed-Use/Residential (MU/R) as shown in
Exhibit I-1.
The T
own Center Site is entitled for 960,000
square feet (SF) of commercial uses (Existing
Scenario). The Applicant proposes to reduce
the Town Center Site’s commercial
entitlement to 816,000 SF and allow for up to
840 residential units, with a minimum of 435
residential units (Proposed Scenario) as
outlined in the proposed Development Agreement currently under consideration by the City and Applicant.
Exhibit I-1: Project Site Plan
To: Laura C. Black, Director of Development Services November 4, 2024 Subject: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis Page 2 24094kal
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In response to the City’s request, KMA evaluated the economic impacts (employment, personal income, and economic output) of the ongoing permanent operations of the Existing Scenario and Proposed Scenario at buildout. Table I-1 below presents the key project components of each scenario. As shown, the Existing Scenario contains 669,700 SF of existing built commercial with 290,300 SF remaining commercial SF to be built. By comparison, the Proposed Project contains 669,700 SF of existing built commercial with 146,300 SF remaining commercial SF to be built. The Proposed Scenario reduces the remaining commercial SF in order to develop a minimum of 435 residential units. More detail regarding the key project components and estimated employment is presented in Appendix A.
Table I-1: Project Components by Scenario (1)
Existing
Scenario
Proposed
Scenario
Difference -
Gain/(Loss)
I. Site Area
A. Freeway Commercial 78.29 Acres 59.14 Acres (19.15) Acres B. Residential Mixed-Use 0.00 Acres 16.59 Acres 16.59 Acres C. Public Park (Useable Park Area) 0.00 Acres 2.56 Acres 2.56 Acres D. Total
78.29 Acres 78.29 Acres 0.00 Acres
II. Gross Building Area (GBA)
A. Freeway Commercial
Existing Built 669,700 SF 669,700 SF 0 SF
Remaining 290,300 SF 146,300 SF (144,000) SF
Total 960,000 SF 816,000 SF (144,000) SF
B. Residential Mixed-Use 0 Units Minimum of
435 Units
Minimum of
435 Units
(1) Source: City of Chula Vista, Planning Commission Staff Report and supporting documents, September 25, 2024.
For the purposes of this economic impact analysis, “Employment” is the total number of full-time equivalent jobs generated by the development of each scenario. “Personal Income” refers to the total gross wage and salary income, including the value of benefits and bonuses, and before taxes. “Economic output” represents the gross receipts of revenues for businesses located in the City and San Diego County (County). Using these metrics, KMA estimated the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of each scenario, as defined below.
• Direct Impacts – economic activity, employee compensation, and jobs resulting from completion of each scenario
To: Laura C. Black, Director of Development Services November 4, 2024 Subject: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis Page 3 24094kal
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• Indirect Impacts – economic activity, employee compensation, and jobs for industries that supply those impacted by development of each scenario
• Induced Impacts – economic activity generated by the household expenditures of direct and indirect employees
II. KEY FINDINGS
The completion and stabilization of the Existing Scenario and Proposed Scenario will generate annual economic impacts within the County and City in the form of employment, personal income, and economic output. Table II-1 compares the recurring annual economic impacts at buildout in 2024 dollars of the Existing Scenario and Proposed Scenario on the County economy. Appendix B provides further detail regarding the economic impacts on the County.
• As shown, KMA estimates that the Existing Scenario will generate a total of 3,696 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees, $251.1 million in personal income, and $929.3 million in economic output captured within the County on a recurring annual basis.
• For the Proposed Scenario, with its reduction in commercial employment and addition of mixed-use residential and associated employment, KMA estimates that it will generate a lesser total of 3,189 FTE employees, $216.3 million in personal income, and $800.4 million in economic output captured within the County on a recurring annual basis.
• In sum, the Proposed Scenario would result in a total loss of: 507 FTE employees, $34.8 million in annual personal income, and $128.9 million in annual economic output within the County economy.
To: Laura C. Black, Director of Development Services November 4, 2024 Subject: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis Page 4 24094kal
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Table II-1: Recurring Annual Impact – Direct, Indirect, and Induced Economic Impacts – County of San Diego (1)
Existing
Scenario
Proposed
Scenario
Difference -
Gain/(Loss)
I. Employment (Full-Time Equivalent) (2)
A. Freeway Commercial – Existing 2,643 2,643 0
B. Freeway Commercial – Remaining 1,053 531 (522)
C. Residential Mixed-Use 0 15 15
D. Total Employment 3,696 3,189 (507)
II. Personal Income (3)
A. Freeway Commercial – Existing $179.6 M $179.6 M $0.0 M B. Freeway Commercial – Remaining $71.5 M $36.0 M ($35.5) M C. Residential Mixed-Use $0 M $0.7 M $0.7 M
D. Total Personal Income $251.1 M $216.3 M ($34.8) M
III. Economic Output (4)
A. Freeway Commercial – Existing $664.5 M $664.5 M $0
B. Freeway Commercial – Remaining $264.8 M $133.5 M ($131.3) M C. Residential Mixed-Use $0 M $2.4 M $2.4 M
D. Total Economic Output $929.3 M $800.4 M ($128.9) M (1) Defined as follows:
• Direct impact includes all direct effects the buildout and stabilization of each scenario on the region. • Indirect impacts are changes caused by business-to-business purchases as they respond to new demands of directly affected industries.
• Induced effects are the increased sales within the region from household spending of employees within each sector.
(2) Represents the number of persons working a full year of full-time equivalent employment. (3) Personal income that people receive from wages and salaries, Social Security and other government benefits, dividends and interest, business ownership, and other sources. (4) Economic output is the total value of a business’ production and is the measure of the value added plus intermediate expenditures.
Table II-2 compares the recurring annual economic impacts of the Existing Scenario and Proposed Scenario on the City economy. Appendix C provides further detail regarding the economic impacts on the City.
• As shown, KMA estimates that the Existing Scenario will generate a total of 2,895 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees, $179.5 million in personal income, and $651.9 million in economic output captured within the City on a recurring annual basis.
• For the Proposed Scenario, with its reduction in commercial employment and addition of mixed-use residential and associated employment, KMA estimates that it will generate a lesser total of 2,497 To: Laura C. Black, Director of Development Services November 4, 2024 Subject: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis Page 5 24094kal
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FTE employees, $154.6 million in personal income, and $561.4 million in economic output captured within the City on a recurring annual basis.
• In sum, the Proposed Scenario would result in a total loss of: 398 FTE employees, $24.9 million in annual personal income, and $90.5 million in annual economic output within the City economy.
Table II-2: Recurring Annual Impact – Total Direct, Indirect, and Induced Economic Impacts – City of Chula Vista (1)
Existing
Scenario
Proposed
Scenario
Difference -
Gain/(Loss)
I. Employment (Full-Time Equivalent) (2)
A. Freeway Commercial – Existing 2,070 2,070 0
B. Freeway Commercial – Remaining 825 416 (409)
C. Residential Mixed-Use 0 11 11
D. Total Employment 2,895 2,497 (398)
II. Personal Income (3)
A. Freeway Commercial – Existing $128.4 M $128.4 M $0
B. Freeway Commercial – Remaining $51.1 M $25.7 M ($25.4) M C. Residential Mixed-Use $0.0 M $0.5 M $0.5 M
D. Total Personal Income $179.5 M $154.6 M ($24.9) M
III. Economic Output (4)
A. Freeway Commercial – Existing $466.2 M $466.2 M $0
B. Freeway Commercial – Remaining $185.7 M $93.6 M ($92.1) M C. Residential Mixed-Use $0.0 M $1.6 M $1.6 M
D. Total Economic Output $651.9 M $561.4 M ($90.5) M (1) Defined as follows:
• Direct impact includes all direct effects the buildout and stabilization of each scenario on the region. • Indirect impacts are changes caused by business-to-business purchases as they respond to new demands of directly affected industries.
• Induced effects are the increased sales within the region from household spending of employees within each sector.
(2) Represents the number of persons working a full year of full-time equivalent employment. (3) Personal income that people receive from wages and salaries, Social Security and other government benefits, dividends and interest, business ownership, and other sources. (4) Economic output is the total value of a business’ production and is the measure of the value added plus intermediate expenditures.
To: Laura C. Black, Director of Development Services November 4, 2024 Subject: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis Page 6 24094kal
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III. METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
This section presents the methodology and assumptions used to determine the recurring annual impacts as a result of completion of the Existing Scenario and Proposed Scenario. The KMA economic impact analysis utilizes the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) model, an economic analysis software package commercially available through the IMPLAN Group, LLC. IMPLAN has been in use since 1979, refined over time, and now widely used by both the private sector and public agencies to measure economic impacts. IMPLAN is based on an input-output accounting of commodity flows within an economy from producers to intermediate and final consumers. The model establishes a matrix of supply chain relationships between industries and between households and the producers of household goods and services. Assumptions about the portion of inputs or supplies for a given industry likely to be met by local suppliers, and the portion supplied from outside the region or study area, are derived internally within the model using data on the industrial structure of the region. In this way, the IMPLAN model identifies how a change in demand for one industry will affect a list of over 500 other industry sectors.
The projected response of an economy to a change in final demand can be viewed in terms of employment, personal income, or economic output. KMA utilized IMPLAN’s readily available data set (2022) for the City and County, so that the model is tailored to the specific economic conditions of the local region. Additionally, KMA utilized workforce/commute share data from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates to determine the indirect and induced impacts captured by the City.
Upon completion, the Existing Scenario and Proposed Scenario will include commercial and/or residential uses, generating new direct employees. To determine the total number of direct employees for the existing commercial SF, KMA reviewed current business license data for the Otay Ranch Town Center. Moreover, to determine the total number of direct employees for the remaining commercial SF, KMA increased the number of SF per employee to reflect rising economic pressures on brick-and-mortar retail outlets resulting from increased competition from on-line shopping. To determine the number of direct employees for the residential mixed-use component, KMA referred to employment data available from the National Apartment Association for apartment complexes with 400 to 499 units.
Table III-1 provides a summary of employment factors assumed in the KMA analysis. By applying IMPLAN multipliers to the employment factors below, KMA estimated the total Countywide and Citywide employment, personal income, and economic output as a result of the ongoing operations of each scenario.
To: Laura C. Black, Director of Development Services November 4, 2024 Subject: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis Page 7 24094kal
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Table III-1: Employment and Income Factors by Project Component Existing Commercial (1) 368 SF/Employee
Remaining Commercial (2) 400 SF/Employee
Residential Mixed-Use (3) 46.5 Units/Employee
Average Pay Per Employee – Commercial (4) $58,321
Average Pay Per Employee – Residential (4) $44,479
% of Workforce Living in the City (5) 30.1%
(1) Source: City of Chula Vista Business Licenses for 2015 Birch Road as of October 14, 2024. Excludes Macy's property.
(2) KMA assumption. Based on existing retail SF per employee and rising economic pressures on brick-and- mortar retail outlets resulting from increased competition from on-line shopping. (3) Source: National Apartment Association 2020 Survey of Operating Income & Expenses in Rental Apartment Communities. Assumes 46.5 units per employee for projects with 400 to 499 units. (4) Based on 2024 San Diego County wage data from the Employment Development Department for Sales and Related Occupations and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations. (5) American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates for 2022 indicates approximately 30.15% of jobs in Chula Vista are held by local residents. Induced impacts are driven by spending of wages and salaries by workers. Where workers live is a key consideration in where spending occurs and thus where induced impacts are realized.
For this reason, commute share is used as a proxy for the share of Countywide indirect and induced impacts that will impact the City of Chula Vista economy.
IV. LIMITING CONDITIONS
1. KMA has made extensive efforts to confirm the accuracy and timeliness of the information contained in this document. Such information was compiled from a variety of sources deemed to be reliable including state and local government, planning agencies, real estate brokers, and other third parties. Although KMA believes all information in this document is correct, it does not guarantee the accuracy of such and assumes no responsibility for inaccuracies in the information provided by third parties. Further, no guarantee is made as to the possible effect on development of current or future Federal, State, or local legislation.
2. The accompanying projections and analyses are based on estimates and assumptions which were developed using currently available economic data, project specific data and other relevant information. It is the nature of forecasting, however, that some assumptions may not materialize and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur. Such changes are likely to be material to the projections and conclusions herein and, if they occur, require review or revision of this document.
To: Laura C. Black, Director of Development Services November 4, 2024 Subject: Otay Ranch Town Center – Economic Impact Analysis Page 8 24094kal
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3. The analysis, opinions, recommendations, and conclusions of this document are KMA's informed judgment based on market and economic conditions as of the date of this report. Due to the volatility of market conditions and complex dynamics influencing the economic conditions of the building and development industry, conclusions and recommended actions contained herein should not be relied upon as sole input for final business decisions regarding current and future development and planning.
4. Any estimates of development costs, and/or income and expense projections in this evaluation are based on the best available Project-specific data as well as the experiences of similar projects. They are not intended to be predictions of the future for the specific project. No warranty or representation is made that any of these estimates or projections will actually materialize.
5. A projection of economic impacts is inherently based on judgement. The projections contained herein are based on the best information available at the time that this document was prepared.
However, the actual impacts may vary.
6. KMA assumes that all applicable laws and governmental regulations in place as of the date of this document will remain unchanged throughout the projection period of our analysis. In the event that this does not hold true, the analysis would need to be revised.
7. KMA is not advising or recommending any action be taken by the City with respect to any prospective, new, or existing municipal financial products or issuance of municipal securities (including with respect to the structure, timing, terms, and other similar matters concerning such financial products or issues).
8. KMA is not acting as a Municipal Advisor to the City and does not assume any fiduciary duty hereunder, including, without limitation, a fiduciary duty to the City pursuant to Section 15B of the Exchange Act with respect to the services provided hereunder and any information and material contained in KMA’s work product.
9. The City shall discuss any such information and material contained in KMA’s work product with any and all internal and/or external advisors and experts, including its own Municipal Advisors, that it deems appropriate before acting on the information and material.
attachments
APPENDIX A
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND ESTIMATE OF EMPLOYEES
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
TABLE A-1
PROJECT DESCRIPTION (1)
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
I. Site Area (Acres)
A. Freeway Commercial 78.29 Acres 59.14 Acres (19.15) Acres B. Residential Mixed-Use 0 Acres 16.59 Acres 16.59 Acres C. Public Park (Useable Park Area) 0 Acres 2.56 Acres 2.56 Acres D. Total 78.29 Acres 78.29 Acres 0.00 Acres
II. Gross Building Area (GBA) (SF)
A. Freeway Commercial
Existing Built Commercial 669,700 SF 669,700 SF 0 SF
Remaining 290,300
SF 146,300 SF (144,000) SF
Total 960,000 SF 816,000 SF (144,000) SF
B. Residential Mixed-Use (Units)
0 Units 435 Units 435 Units
(1) Source: City of Chula Vista, Planning Commission Staff Report and supporting documents, September 25, 2024.
Minimum of Minimum of
Difference
A B C = B-A
Existing
Scenario
Proposed
Scenario
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ESTIMATED FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT EMPLOYMENT
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
I. Freeway Commercial
Existing 669,700 SF 368 SF/Employee 1,822 Employees (1) 669,700 SF 368 SF/Employee 1,822 Employees (1) 0 SF 0 SF/Employee 0 Employees Remaining 290,300 SF 400 SF/Employee (2) 726 Employees 146,300 SF 400 SF/Employee (2) 366 Employees (144,000) SF 400 SF/Employee (2) (360) Employees Total 960,000 SF 377 SF/Employee 2,548 Employees 816,000 SF 373 SF/Employee 2,188 Employees (144,000) SF 400 SF/Employee (360) Employees II. Residential Mixed-Use 0 Units 46.5 Units/Employee (3) 0 Employees 435 Units 46.5 Units/Employee (3) 9 Employees 435 Units 46.5 Units/Employee (3) 9 Employees III. Total 2,548 Employees 2,197 Employees (351) Employees (1) Source: City of Chula Vista Business Licenses for 2015 Birch Road as of October 14, 2024. Excludes Macy's property. (2) KMA assumption. Based on existing retail SF per employee and rising economic pressures on brick-and-mortar retail outlets resulting from increased competition from on-line shopping. (3) Source: National Apartment Association 2020 Survey of Operating Income & Expenses in Rental Apartment Communities. Assumes 46.5 units per employee for projects with 400 to 499 units.
Total Employment
Net Employment
Gain/(Loss)
SF Per Employee Equivalent)
(Full-Time
SF Per Employee Equivalent)
A B C = B-A
SF SF Per Employee Equivalent)
Estimated
(Full-Time
Total Employment
Proposed
Scenario Difference
SFSF
(Full-Time
Existing
Scenario
Estimated
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APPENDIX B
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - COUNTY
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TABLE B-1
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Indirect Indirect
Direct and Induced and Induced
Impact Multiplier (1) Impacts Total
I. Employment (FTEs) (2)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial 1,822 0.45 821 2,643 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial 726 0.45 327 1,053 Residential Mixed-Use 0 0.62 0 0
Total Employment 2,548 1,148 3,696
II. Personal Income Average Pay (3)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $58,321 $106,261,000 0.69 $73,314,000 $179,575,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $58,321 $42,341,000 0.69 $29,213,000 $71,554,000 Residential Mixed-Use $44,479 $0 0.75 $0 $0
Total Personal Income $148,602,000 $102,527,000 $251,129,000 III. Economic Output (4)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $380,575,000 0.75 $283,960,000 $664,535,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $151,645,000 0.75 $113,147,000 $264,792,000 Residential Mixed-Use $0 0.90 $0 $0
Total Economic Output $532,220,000 $397,107,000 $929,327,000 (1)
(2) Direct employment figures from Table A-2.
(3)
(4)
Existing
Scenario
Source: IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN model - 2022 for the County of San Diego. See Worksheet 1. Indirect effects are the business to business purchases in the supply chain taking place in the region that stem from the initial industry input purchases. Induced effects are the values stemming from household spending of Labor Income, after removal of taxes, savings, and income from in-commuting. In-commuting is the outflows of Employee Compensation (net of payroll taxes) due to people who work in the region and go home to another region.
Based on 2024 San Diego County wage data from the Employment Development Department for Sales and Related Occupations and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations.
Ongoing output estimate is based on ratio of annual payroll to sales, value of shipments, or revenue for retail trade and other services from the 2017 Economic Census. A retail margin of
38.25% is applied to retail categories. A retail margin is the percentage of a product's price that a retailer keeps to cover the cost of operating their store.
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SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TABLE B-2
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Indirect Indirect
Direct and Induced and Induced
Impact Multiplier (1) Impacts Total
I. Employment (FTEs) (2)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial 1,822 0.45 821 2,643 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial 366 0.45 165 531 Residential Mixed-Use 9 0.62 6 15
Total Employment 2,197 992 3,189
II. Personal Income Average Pay (3)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $58,321 $106,261,000 0.69 $73,314,000 $179,575,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $58,321 $21,345,000 0.69 $14,727,000 $36,072,000 Residential Mixed-Use $44,479 $400,000 0.75 $299,000 $699,000 Total Personal Income $128,006,000 $88,340,000 $216,346,000 III. Economic Output (4)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $380,575,000 0.75 $283,960,000 $664,535,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $76,447,000 0.75 $57,040,000 $133,487,000 Residential Mixed-Use $1,264,000 0.90 $1,141,000 $2,405,000 Total Economic Output $458,286,000 $342,141,000 $800,427,000 (1)
(2) Direct employment figures from Table A-2.
(3)
(4)
Proposed
Scenario
Source: IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN model - 2022 for the County of San Diego. See Worksheet 1. Indirect effects are the business to business purchases in the supply chain taking place in the region that stem from the initial industry input purchases. Induced effects are the values stemming from household spending of Labor Income, after removal of taxes, savings, and income from in-commuting. In-commuting is the outflows of Employee Compensation (net of payroll taxes) due to people who work in the region and go home to another region.
Based on 2024 San Diego County wage data from the Employment Development Department for Sales and Related Occupations and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations.
Ongoing output estimate is based on ratio of annual payroll to sales, value of shipments, or revenue for retail trade and other services from the 2017 Economic Census. A retail margin of
38.25% is applied to retail categories. A retail margin is the percentage of a product's price that a retailer keeps to cover the cost of operating their store.
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SAN DIEGO COUNTY
TABLE B-3
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Indirect Indirect
Direct and Induced and Induced
Impact Multiplier (1) Impacts Total
I. Employment (FTEs) (2)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial 0 0.45 0 0
Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial (360) 0.45 (162) (522) Residential Mixed-Use 9 0.62 6 15
Total Employment (351) (156) (507)
II. Personal Income Average Pay (3)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $58,321 $0 0.69 $0 $0 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $58,321 ($20,996,000) 0.69 ($14,486,000) ($35,482,000) Residential Mixed-Use $44,479 $400,000 0.75 $299,000 $699,000 Total Personal Income ($20,596,000) ($14,187,000) ($34,783,000) III. Economic Output (4)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $0 0.75 $0 $0
Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial ($75,197,000) 0.75 ($56,107,000) ($131,304,000) Residential Mixed-Use $1,264,000 0.90 $1,141,000 $2,405,000 Total Economic Output ($73,933,000) ($54,966,000) ($128,899,000) (1)
(2) Direct employment figures from Table A-2.
(3)
(4)
Difference
Source: IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN model - 2022 for the County of San Diego. See Worksheet 1. Indirect effects are the business to business purchases in the supply chain taking place in the region that stem from the initial industry input purchases. Induced effects are the values stemming from household spending of Labor Income, after removal of taxes, savings, and income from in-commuting. In-commuting is the outflows of Employee Compensation (net of payroll taxes) due to people who work in the region and go home to another region.
Based on 2024 San Diego County wage data from the Employment Development Department for Sales and Related Occupations and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations.
Ongoing output estimate is based on ratio of annual payroll to sales, value of shipments, or revenue for retail trade and other services from the 2017 Economic Census. A retail margin of
38.25% is applied to retail categories. A retail margin is the percentage of a product's price that a retailer keeps to cover the cost of operating their store.
Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc.
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APPENDIX C
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - CITY
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
TABLE C-1
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - CITY OF CHULA VISTA
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Indirect Estimated Share Indirect
Direct and Induced of Workforce and Induced
Impact Multiplier (1) Living in City (2) Impacts Total
I. Employment (FTEs) (3)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial 1,822 0.45 30.15% 248 2,070 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial 726 0.45 30.15% 99 825 Residential Mixed-Use 0 0.62 30.15% 0 0
Total Employment 2,548 347 2,895
II. Personal Income Average Pay (4)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $58,321 $106,261,000 0.69 30.15% $22,103,000 $128,364,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $58,321 $42,341,000 0.69 30.15% $8,807,000 $51,148,000 Residential Mixed-Use $44,479 $0 0.75 30.15% $0 $0
Total Personal Income $148,602,000 $30,910,000 $179,512,000 III. Economic Output (5)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $380,575,000 0.75 30.15% $85,611,000 $466,186,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $151,645,000 0.75 30.15% $34,113,000 $185,758,000 Residential Mixed-Use $0 0.90 30.15% $0 $0
Total Economic Output $532,220,000 $119,724,000 $651,944,000 (1)
(2)
(2) Direct employment figures from Table A-2.
(3)
(4)
Existing
Scenario
Source: IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN model - 2022 for the County of San Diego. See Worksheet 1. Indirect effects are the business to business purchases in the supply chain taking place in the region that stem from the initial industry input purchases. Induced effects are the values stemming from household spending of Labor Income, after removal of taxes, savings, and income from in-commuting. In- commuting is the outflows of Employee Compensation (net of payroll taxes) due to people who work in the region and go home to another region.
Based on 2024 San Diego County wage data from the Employment Development Department for Sales and Related Occupations and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations.
On-going output estimate is based on ratio of annual payroll to sales, value of shipments, or revenue for retail trade and other services from the 2017 Economic Census. A margin of 38.25% is applied to retail categories. A retail margin is the percentage of a product's price that a retailer keeps to cover the cost of operating their store.
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates for 2022 indicates approximately 30.15% of jobs in Chula Vista are held by local residents. Induced impacts are driven by spending of wages and salaries by workers. Where workers live is a key consideration in where spending occurs and thus where induced impacts are realized. For this reason, commute share is used as a proxy for the share of Countywide indirect and induced impacts that will impact the City of Chula Vista economy.
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CITY OF CHULA VISTA
TABLE C-2
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - CITY OF CHULA VISTA
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Indirect Estimated Share Indirect
Direct and Induced of Workforce and Induced
Impact Multiplier (1) Living in City (2) Impacts Total
I. Employment (FTEs) (3)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial 1,822 0.45 30.15% 248 2,070 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial 366 0.45 30.15% 50 416 Residential Mixed-Use 9 0.62 30.15% 2 11
Total Employment 2,197 300 2,497
II. Personal Income Average Pay (4)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $58,321 $106,261,000 0.69 30.15% $22,103,000 $128,364,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $58,321 $21,345,000 0.69 30.15% $4,440,000 $25,785,000 Residential Mixed-Use $44,479 $400,000 0.75 30.15% $90,000 $490,000 Total Personal Income $128,006,000 $26,633,000 $154,639,000 III. Economic Output (5)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $380,575,000 0.75 30.15% $85,611,000 $466,186,000 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $76,447,000 0.75 30.15% $17,197,000 $93,644,000 Residential Mixed-Use $1,264,000 0.90 30.15% $344,000 $1,608,000 Total Economic Output $458,286,000 $103,152,000 $561,438,000 (1)
(2)
(2) Direct employment figures from Table A-2.
(3)
(4)
Proposed
Scenario
Source: IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN model - 2022 for the County of San Diego. See Worksheet 1. Indirect effects are the business to business purchases in the supply chain taking place in the region that stem from the initial industry input purchases. Induced effects are the values stemming from household spending of Labor Income, after removal of taxes, savings, and income from in-commuting. In- commuting is the outflows of Employee Compensation (net of payroll taxes) due to people who work in the region and go home to another region.
Based on 2024 San Diego County wage data from the Employment Development Department for Sales and Related Occupations and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations.
On-going output estimate is based on ratio of annual payroll to sales, value of shipments, or revenue for retail trade and other services from the 2017 Economic Census. A margin of 38.25% is applied to retail categories. A retail margin is the percentage of a product's price that a retailer keeps to cover the cost of operating their store.
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates for 2022 indicates approximately 30.15% of jobs in Chula Vista are held by local residents. Induced impacts are driven by spending of wages and salaries by workers. Where workers live is a key consideration in where spending occurs and thus where induced impacts are realized. For this reason, commute share is used as a proxy for the share of Countywide indirect and induced impacts that will impact the City of Chula Vista economy.
Prepared by: Keyser Marston Associates, Inc.
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CITY OF CHULA VISTA
TABLE C-3
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - CITY OF CHULA VISTA
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Indirect Estimated Share Indirect
Direct and Induced of Workforce and Induced
Impact Multiplier (1) Living in City (2) Impacts Total
I. Employment (FTEs) (3)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial 0 0.45 30.15% 0 0.0 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial (360) 0.45 30.15% (49) (409) Residential Mixed-Use 9 0.62 30.15% 2 11
Total Employment (351) (47) (398)
II. Personal Income Average Pay (4)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $58,321 $0 0.69 30.15% $0 $0 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial $58,321 ($20,996,000) 0.69 30.15% ($4,367,000) ($25,363,000) Residential Mixed-Use $44,479 $400,000 0.75 30.15% $90,000 $490,000 Total Personal Income ($20,596,000) ($4,277,000) ($24,873,000) III. Economic Output (5)
Freeway Commercial - Existing Commercial $0 0.75 30.15% $0 $0 Freeway Commercial - Remaining Commercial ($75,198,000) 0.75 30.15% ($16,916,000) ($92,114,000) Residential Mixed-Use $1,264,000 0.90 30.15% $344,000 $1,608,000 Total Economic Output ($73,934,000) ($16,572,000) ($90,506,000) (1)
(2)
(2) Direct employment figures from Table A-2.
(3)
(4)
Difference
Source: IMPLAN Group, Inc., IMPLAN model - 2022 for the County of San Diego. See Worksheet 1. Indirect effects are the business to business purchases in the supply chain taking place in the region that stem from the initial industry input purchases. Induced effects are the values stemming from household spending of Labor Income, after removal of taxes, savings, and income from in-commuting. In- commuting is the outflows of Employee Compensation (net of payroll taxes) due to people who work in the region and go home to another region.
Based on 2024 San Diego County wage data from the Employment Development Department for Sales and Related Occupations and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations.
On-going output estimate is based on ratio of annual payroll to sales, value of shipments, or revenue for retail trade and other services from the 2017 Economic Census. A margin of 38.25% is applied to retail categories. A retail margin is the percentage of a product's price that a retailer keeps to cover the cost of operating their store.
American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates for 2022 indicates approximately 30.15% of jobs in Chula Vista are held by local residents. Induced impacts are driven by spending of wages and salaries by workers. Where workers live is a key consideration in where spending occurs and thus where induced impacts are realized. For this reason, commute share is used as a proxy for the share of Countywide indirect and induced impacts that will impact the City of Chula Vista economy.
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SAN DIEGO COUNTY
WORKSHEET 1
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS - MULTIPLIERS, SAN DIEGO COUNTY
OTAY RANCH TOWN CENTER COMMERCIAL REZONE
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY OF CHULA VISTA
Assumed Retail
Mix Margin (2)
Direct Indirect Induced
Direct, Indirect,
Induced (3) Direct Indirect Induced
Direct, Indirect,
Induced (3) Direct Indirect Induced
Direct, Indirect,
Induced (3)
I. Retail
403 Retail - Furniture and home furnishings stores 5% 45.96% 1.00 0.2375 0.28491 1.5224 1.00 0.27234 0.30271 1.57505 1.00 0.36486 0.37965 1.744509 404 Retail - Electronics and appliance stores 5% 46.52% 1.00 0.1933 0.34400 1.5373 1.00 0.16833 0.27762 1.445955 1.00 0.33265 0.51364 1.846281 406 Retail - Food and beverage stores 5% 34.79% 1.00 0.1556 0.22533 1.3809 1.00 0.19732 0.28528 1.482594 1.00 0.26679 0.36658 1.633369 407 Retail - Health and personal care stores 10% 29.71% 1.00 0.1668 0.25378 1.4206 1.00 0.20076 0.28571 1.486467 1.00 0.3172 0.42181 1.739009 409 Retail - Clothing and clothing accessories stores 35% 55.50% 1.00 0.3119 0.23722 1.5491 1.00 0.56285 0.37206 1.934900 1.00 0.46794 0.30258 1.770518 410 Retail - Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores 10% 49.90% 1.00 0.1491 0.21022 1.3593 1.00 0.22334 0.2917 1.515042 1.00 0.33416 0.40849 1.742649 411 Retail - General merchandise stores 5% 32.84% 1.00 0.1687 0.22730 1.3960 1.00 0.27383 0.30181 1.575639 1.00 0.26659 0.32084 1.587429 412 Retail - Miscellaneous store retailers 5% 57.21% 1.00 0.1111 0.17070 1.2818 1.00 0.20191 0.28730 1.489215 1.00 0.34913 0.46486 1.813990 509 Full-service restaurants 10% 0% 1.00 0.1663 0.20397 1.3703 1.00 0.3239 0.31498 1.638879 1.00 0.35382 0.35946 1.713279 510 Limited-service restaurants 5% 0% 1.00 0.2107 0.19051 1.4012 1.00 0.4526 0.34613 1.798727 1.00 0.42633 0.31901 1.745335 511 All other food and drinking places 5% 0% 1.00 0.1462 0.20322 1.3494 1.00 0.29809 0.30850 1.606584 1.00 0.34051 0.42775 1.768266 Total/Weighted Average 100% 38.25% 1.00 0.21853 0.23212 1.4506 1.00 0.36502 0.32493 1.595368 1.00 0.38164 0.36450 1.746134 II. Residential Mixed-Use
470 Office administrative services 10% 0% 1.00 0.2592 0.39142 1.6507 1.00 0.24072 0.29512 1.535841 1.00 0.64721 0.94591 2.593123 471 Facilities support services 20% 0% 1.00 0.5184 0.40424 1.9227 1.00 0.61437 0.3842 1.998567 1.00 0.51195 0.39142 1.903371 476 Services to buildings 30% 0% 1.00 0.2314 0.23422 1.4656 1.00 0.42552 0.33919 1.764708 1.00 0.40918 0.37314 1.782315 477 Landscape and horticultural services 20% 0% 1.00 0.1613 0.24442 1.4057 1.00 0.23994 0.29486 1.534799 1.00 0.33612 0.40165 1.737773 478 Other support services 20% 0% 1.00 0.4139 0.34554 1.7594 1.00 0.44616 0.34389 1.790049 1.00 0.48249 0.41944 1.901931 Total/Weighted Average 100% 0% 1.00 0.31406 0.30825 1.62230 1.00 0.41182 0.33586 1.74768 1.00 0.45359 0.44904 1.90262 (1) Source: IMPLAN Economic Software.
(2) A retail margin is the percentage of a product's price that a retailer keeps to cover the cost of operating their store. (3) Defined as follows:
• Direct impact includes all direct effects the buildout and stabilization of each scenario on the region. • Indirect impacts are changes caused by business-to-business purchases as they respond to new demands of directly affected industries. • Induced effects are the increased sales within the region from household spending of employees within each sector.
DIRECT, INDIRECT, INDUCED IMPACTS (1)
Labor Income OutputEmployment
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