CARLSBAD
CLOVIS
IRVINE
LOS ANGELES
PALM SPRINGS
POINT RICHMOND
RIVERSIDE
ROSEVILLE
SAN LUIS OBISPO
3210 El Camino Real, Suite 100, Irvine, California 92602 949.553.0666 www.lsa.net
ME MOR A ND U M
DATE: October 18, 2024
TO: Victor Mendez, City of Costa Mesa
FROM: Arthur Black, LSA
SUBJECT: Parking Demand for the Costa Mesa Senior Center The City of Costa Mesa (City) has engaged LSA to study parking demand at the Costa Mesa Senior Center (Senior Center). The City wishes to understand current parking demand, pre-pandemic parking demand, and future parking demand for the Senior Center in relation to a development application that would share parking resources with the Senior Center. This analysis presented by LSA is not a peer review of the applicant’s parking study. Rather, this is a focused look at the parking demand for the Senior Center.
Jamboree Housing is proposing to construct a 36-unit active senior apartment complex and a 34-unit permanent supportive housing development adjacent to the Costa Mesa Senior Center surface parking lot. The Parking Demand Analysis, Costa Mesa SC Housing Project (LLG 2024) estimated parking demand for the senior housing portion of the project to be 40 parking spaces. No separate parking demand estimate is provided for the permanent supportive housing portion of the project, but Government Code Section 65915 is identified as well as its prohibition of minimum parking requirements being imposed by a City for special-needs housing near public transportation.
As part of the project, the existing 145-space surface parking lot would be reconfigured to provide 74 surface parking spaces and 59 spaces within a new parking structure. The Parking Demand Analysis anticipates that the residential project will require 40 of the 59 spaces within the new parking structure. To enforce the location of resident vehicles, a parking plan is proposed that would include resident vehicle permitting including “rented or borrowed” vehicles. While this report is not a full peer review of the Parking Demand Analysis, a review of the methodology for calculating residential parking demand was prepared and LSA concurs that the residential parking demand is estimated to be 40 vehicles.
As part of the project, the applicant surveyed the parking demand for the Costa Mesa Senior Center on August 8, 2024 and August 13, 2024. A special event was held on July 26, 2024 where participants could come in to pick up groceries. During these surveyed days, the Senior Center had a peak of 75 parked vehicles on August 8 and 74 parked vehicles on August 13.
ATTACHMENT 10
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10/18/24 «P:\20242011\Senior Center Parking Study2.docx» 2 2022 REVIEW OF SENIOR CENTER PARKING DEMAND
The City requested that LSA review a previously prepared parking analysis in 2022, which had cited Senior Center parking demand data gathered in 2021. Senior Center attendance was higher pre- pandemic compared to 2021. LSA received detailed visitor data from the Senior Center that enabled the calculation of the Senior Center’s vehicles/daily attendance parking demand ratio and estimate pre-pandemic parking demand. While Senior Center attendance in 2024 is at or above pre-pandemic levels, variation in visitor demand by time-of-day and season remains relevant for this report.
SENIOR CENTER PARKING CHARACTERISTICS
Variation
Senior Center staff provided parking demand, which showed the variation in daily attendance by season and the typical busiest times of day. Table A provides a snapshot of the average attendance data. As Table A shows, the busiest month of November has higher-than-average attendance, while summer months may have below-average attendance.
Table A: Average Daily Senior Center Visitor Attendance (2019) March June September November Overall
7:00–11:00 a.m. 96 88 91 109 96
11:00 a.m.–2:00 p.m. 64 59 61 71 64
2:00–5:00 p.m. 39 33 35 35 35
Daily 199 180 187 215 195
Source: Costa Mesa Senior Center (2019).
Whatever the time of year, the distribution of visitors remains the same. The busiest time of day is between opening and 11:00 a.m., with the number of new arrivals decreasing as the day progresses.
The attendance data in Table A would suggest that the busiest time in the parking lot would occur while the morning visitors are still present and midday visitors are arriving. Parking data collected for the Parking Demand Analysis showed peak parking demand occurring at 12:00 p.m. on both typical days. At noon, the Urban Land Institute’s (ULI) Shared Parking, Third Edition identifies that residential parking demand is 40 percent of peak demand. For the type of senior/affordable housing development being proposed the parking demand is 74 percent of peak demand according to data presented in the Parking Demand Analysis.
Parking Ratio
Total attendance on August 8, 2024 was 247 visitors and on August 13, 2024 was 253 visitors. With a peak of 75 and 74 parked vehicles respectively, the peak parking demand ratio is 0.30 space/daily attendance (75 spaces / 247 daily visitors = 0.30 space/visitor; 74 spaces /253 daily visitors =
0.29 space/visitor). This ratio derived from 2024 attendance and parking data is exactly the same as the ratio calculated in 2022 with 2021 attendance and parking data.
The Costa Mesa Senior Center has a peak parking demand that can be estimated as 0.30 spaces per daily visitors.
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10/18/24 «P:\20242011\Senior Center Parking Study2.docx» 3 Busy Days
As Table A showed, average daily attendance varies throughout the year with highest average daily attendance in November. This higher attendance could mean that typically less-busy periods of the day are busy, raising daily attendance. It is more likely that the busy portions of the day are proportionately busier leading to higher peak parking demand on busy days. LSA enquired about peak daily attendance at the Senior Center in 2024 and was informed that on August 9, 2024 a total of 469 people visited the Senior Center. Another unusually busy day occurred on August 23, 2024 when 453 people visited. On these days, average daily visitors were 84 percent higher than the typical days surveyed. Some of these additional visitors would have arrived during the less-busy afternoon period, but peak parking demand would certainly have been higher than the typical days surveyed in the Parking Demand Analysis.
The Parking Demand Analysis did attempt to account for busy days on which the Senior Center was holding a special event. In a previous version of the analysis, parking data were collected on a day that Thanksgiving dinners were being distributed. In the Parking Demand Analysis, a monthly grocery distribution day was surveyed. On the Thanksgiving meal distribution day, 198 visitors came and 50 a maximum of 50 vehicles were parked, for a ratio of 0.25 space/visitor. On the grocery day, 452 visitors came and maximum parking demand was identified as 90 spaces for a ratio of
0.20 space/visitor.
Future Parking Demand
The California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, predicts future population and demographic trends based on current population, past growth, and population models. These trends inform the State budget process by assisting in the anticipation of the future needs of entitlement programs and future revenues. The State makes these data available to demographic researchers and the general public. The anticipated aging of the population of the United States has been widely reported. A recent report from the State allows this trend to be quantified for Orange County. Table B provides these population prediction data and the resulting growth rate.
Table B: Orange County Demographic Trends 2020–2040
2020 2024 2030 2040
Total Population 3,188,652 3,142,387 3,193,151 3,244,826 Growth from 2024 - - 2% 3%
Population Age 65+ 477,170 541,246 667,714 826,378
Growth from 2024 - - 23% 53%
Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit. Report P-2B: County Population Projections, 2020–2070.
Table B shows that by 2030 the County’s population is expected to grow by 2 percent compared to 2024. Over the same period, however, the County’s population over the age of 65 is expected to grow by 23 percent. This gap will continue to widen. By 2040, the County’s population is expected to be 3 percent higher than 2024 while the population over the age of 65 will increase by 53 percent. -3-
10/18/24 «P:\20242011\Senior Center Parking Study2.docx» 4 The Senior Center serves a population that is over 50 years old, but most of the visitors are over the age of 65. It is anticipated that the demographic trends occurring in the County would affect Costa Mesa and the Costa Mesa population served similarly by the Senior Center. Table C applies the future demographic trends reported by the State to the parking demand at the Senior Center in 2024.
Table C: Projected Senior Center Parking Demand
Average Day Busy Day
2024 Parking Demand 75 90
2030 Growth Rate (65+) 23% 23%
2030 Parking Demand 92 111
2040 Growth Rate (65+) 53% 53%
2040 Parking Demand 115 138
Table C shows that on an average day, parking demand at the Senior Center is expected to increase to 92 by 2030 and to 115 by 2040 if visitor travel behavior is the same as today. If visitor travel behavior is the same as today, on a busy day, the Senior Center could experience demand for all of its surface parking spaces by 2040.
SHARED PARKING AND PARKING SHORTFALL
If the proposed residential project is constructed, the existing 145-space surface parking lot would be reconfigured to provide 74 surface parking spaces and 59 spaces within a new parking structure.
Residential vehicles would be limited to parking within the parking structure, but Senior Center vehicles could use any available space. The number of parking spaces available to the Senior Center would then be whatever portion of the 133 total parking spaces are not occupied by residents during the day. Sufficient data are provided in the Parking Demand Analysis to identify residential parking demand variation by time of day and Senior Center parking demand variation.
Typically, residential parking demand peaks overnight, declines quickly as residents leave for work, and grows steadily in the afternoon and evening as residents return home. As mentioned previously, senior affordable housing does not have the same variation in parking demand as typical market- rate housing. Table D displays the time-of-day parking variation for senior affordable housing based on survey data. Parking demand peaks overnight, but the percentage of vehicles remaining parked during the day is much higher than typical residential development. Table D also displays the time- of-day parking variation for the Costa Mesa Senior Center based on surveys of actual parking demand in that parking lot.
Table D then overlays residential and Senior Center demand for the 133 shared parking spaces. The values in Table D show whether sufficient parking would be provided in the future with no intervention or management of parking different from current practices. As Table D shows, sufficient parking is anticipated to be available for a typical day at the Senior Center through 2030.
On a busy day in 2030 (and on a typical day by 2040), however, a parking shortfall could occur unless changes are made to current parking trends.
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10/18/24 «P:\20242011\Senior Center Parking Study2.docx» 5 Table D: Shared Parking
8 AM 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM 1 PM 2 PM 3 PM 4 PM 5 PM
Time-of-Day Factors1
Senior Residential 88% 91% 89% 83% 74% 68% 67% 71% 74% 80% Senior Center 32% 45% 67% 89% 100% 64% 62% 42% 28% 18%
Parking Demand
Typical Day 2030
Residential 35 36 36 33 30 27 27 28 30 32
Senior Center2 29 41 62 82 92 59 57 39 26 17
Total Demand 64 77 98 115 122 86 84 67 56 49
Remaining Spaces 69 56 35 18 11 47 49 66 77 84
Busy Day 2030
Residential 35 36 36 33 30 27 27 28 30 32
Senior Center3 36 50 74 99 111 71 69 47 31 20
Total Demand 71 86 110 132 141 98 96 75 61 52
Remaining Spaces 62 47 23 1 (8) 35 37 58 72 81
Typical Day 2040
Residential 35 36 36 33 30 27 27 28 30 32
Senior Center4 37 52 77 102 115 74 71 48 32 21
Total Demand 72 88 113 135 145 101 98 76 62 53
Remaining Spaces 61 45 20 (2) (12) 32 35 57 71 80
Busy Day 2040
Residential 35 36 36 33 30 27 27 28 30 32
Senior Center5 44 62 92 123 138 88 86 58 39 25
Total Demand 79 98 128 156 168 115 113 86 69 57
Remaining Spaces 54 35 5 (23) (35) 18 20 47 64 76
1 Calculated from data presented in Parking Demand Analysis Costa Mesa SC Housing Project (LLG, 2024). 2 Peak demand 92, see Table C.
3 Peak demand 111, see Table C.
4 Peak demand 115, see Table C.
5 Peak demand 138, see Table C.
It should be noted that even on a busy day in 2040, sufficient parking would be available later in the afternoon to accommodate the entire peak period shortfall. This shows that the problem is not too few parking spaces but rather a concentration of parking demand.
PARKING DEMAND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
As discussed above, shared parking between the proposed residential project and the Senior Center could lead to a shortfall of parking on a busy day by 2030 or on a typical day by 2040 if no intervention is taken. Fortunately, the shortfall would only occur during the period of peak parking demand and not throughout the day. Shifting some of the peak parking demand to the afternoon would be sufficient to alleviate the parking shortfall without further interference with Senior Center operations and programming. This section describes some potential parking strategies.
Vehicle Registration
This strategy will likely be required upon completion of the proposed residential project regardless of a potential shortfall of shared parking. The residential project will attempt to prevent residents from parking vehicles in the surface parking lot. This will be accomplished through registration of -5-
10/18/24 «P:\20242011\Senior Center Parking Study2.docx» 6 resident vehicles and issuance of parking stickers that must be displayed on resident vehicles.
Guests of tenants would also be required to park within designated areas. The residential parking plan indicates that use of their parking permit on rented or borrowed vehicles would require written authorization prior to a tenant transferring their permit. It may, however, be difficult to distinguish between a tenant guest and Senior Center visitor vehicles if the Senior Center is not similarly registering authorized vehicles and issuing parking stickers. Senior Center parking stickers would reinforce the residential parking plan, ensuring that residential parking demand does not grow beyond what is currently anticipated, and would prevent outside vehicles from using the Senior Center parking lot.
Off-site Parking
If the Senior Center is organizing any overnight travel events, an overnight parking location other than the Senior Center could be used to preserve parking capacity within the Senior Center lot.
Options may include City Hall or the OC Fairgrounds.
Travel Vouchers
The Directions 2045, the Long Range Transportation Plan for Orange County (OCTA, May 2023), identified portions of Costa Mesa within a microtransit opportunity area. These smaller, on-demand transit vehicles could deliver visitors to the Senior Center without generating parking demand. If a microtransit option is available, the Senior Center could participate in that program and issue vouchers for visitors to use the service to travel to and from the Senior Center. Until a microtransit option is available, the Senior Center could work with a rideshare company to offer discounted travel to and from the Senior Center. This option would reduce overall parking demand while (1) allowing visitors who want to drive to continue to drive, and (2) providing an alternative to driving to those who prefer an alternative.
Online Parking Reservation
Once registration of authorized vehicles and issuance of parking stickers is established, the Senior Center would have the ability to further moderate peak parking demand through an online parking reservation system. As mentioned previously, future parking shortfalls would be limited to a couple of peak hours of the day. The Senior Center could implement a system requiring that visitors check an online system for parking availability and reserve a parking space prior to driving to the Senior Center. Potential visitors seeing a lack of parking available at peak times could decide to use a microtransit/rideshare option instead or delay their visit to the afternoon when parking is available.
This system alerting visitors to periods of limited parking availability would prevent parking shortfalls during the brief periods when shortfalls are anticipated.
Special Events
The Senior Center hosts occasional special events such as grocery days and the Health and Information Fair. In the past, visitors have been welcome to arrive at their convenience during the limited duration of the event. Small changes in operation of these events may be necessary in a future where parking constraints are possible. Grocery days could be held during the less-busy afternoon hours at the Senior Center or could be organized as drive-through events. The Health Fair -6-
10/18/24 «P:\20242011\Senior Center Parking Study2.docx» 7 may need to be held for a longer duration, and visitors may need to schedule an appointment time to spread out parking demand within the supply of spaces available.
CONCLUSION
The Costa Mesa Senior Center currently has a 145-space surface parking lot. Surveys of parking demand in 2024 showed that 75 spaces are occupied on a typical day. Parking demand on the busiest nonspecial-event day could be higher. The availability of parking supply in excess of parking demand has provided the Senior Center with flexibility to host other community events and special events for its members.
Future demographic growth is expected to increase parking demand on an average day to 92 spaces by 2030 and 115 spaces by 2040. With construction of the proposed residential project, the parking lot would be reconfigured to provide 74 surface parking spaces and 59 spaces within a new parking structure. Residential vehicles would be limited to parking within the parking structure and would be designated with parking stickers. Senior Center vehicles could use any available space in the surface parking lot or remaining in the parking structure. When considering the variation in parking demand for both the residential project and the Senior Center, it appears that a parking shortfall would be possible during a one- or two-hour period. This potential shortfall is limited to 8 vehicles on busy days by 2030 increasing to 35 vehicles on busy days by 2040. Sufficient parking would be available later in the afternoon to accommodate all potential visitors if Senior Center parking demand were more evenly distributed throughout the day.
Accommodating the increase in visitor demand within the shared parking supply could be accomplished by adopting policies encouraging alternatives to arrival by single-occupant vehicles.
Regardless of any other measures taken, registration of authorized Senior Center vehicles and issuance of parking stickers for Senior Center vehicles will likely be necessary to reinforce residential parking policies and prevent unauthorized vehicles from using the Senior Center parking lot.
Depending on the duration of overnight events, vehicles parked for overnight events may need to use an alternative off-site parking lot. Overall parking demand could be reduced by allowing visitors to choose alternatives to driving and parking. If a microtransit system is available in the future, the Senior Center could participate. Until a microtransit system is available, the Senior Center could offer vouchers reducing the costs of rideshare service for Senior Center visitors. If allowing visitors to choose an alternative to driving and parking is (by itself) not sufficient to alleviate the potential parking shortfall, an additional system of online parking reservation could alert visitors of the brief periods when peak demand would result in a shortfall. By spreading out parking demand throughout the day, all of the potential visitors to the Senior Center could be accommodated with minimal change to Senior Center operations or programming.
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