City of Cotati
2023-2033
Updated March 15, 2023
Prepared By:
- Damien O’Bid, City Manager
- Angela Courter, Director of Administrative Services
- Neil Tomlinson, Senior Accountant
General Fund
Long-Range Financial Forecast
City of Cotati
General Fund - Financial Forecast
FY 2022-23 to FY 2032-33
Contents
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 3 City Overview ..................................................................................................................... 3 Objectives ........................................................................................................................... 3 FORECAST OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................... 4 Long Range Financial Forecast ........................................................................................... 4 Base Assumption ................................................................................................................. 4 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................. 4 Risks to the Forecast ............................................................................................................ 7 GENERAL FUND FORECAST ...................................................................................................... 9 REVENUES HISTORICAL TRENDS .......................................................................................... 11 APPENDIX - DEAIL SCENARIO REPORTS ............................................................................. 12 3 INTRODUCTION
City Overview
The City’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2022-23 adopted General Fund Operating Budget is $8.7 million with approximately 49 FTE budgeted positions. The City has the following departments to support operations and provide services to the community: City Manager (including Recreation), Administrative Services, Community Development (Planning and Building), Public Works and Engineering, and Police Services.
Objectives
The Long-Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) through FY2032/33 represents a continuing effort to analyze the City’s long-term fiscal condition based upon a reasonable set of economic and operational assumptions. It is an important management tool that can be used by both the City Council and the City Manager for identifying fiscal trends and issues which must be addressed to assure continued financial success. With early detection, financial trends identified as possible problems can be dealt with in a reasonable manner rather than waiting for a crisis to occur. The set of forecasts contained in this report is not a prediction of what will occur. The forecast is a snapshot in time and an approximate view of what could occur in the future if all the assumptions are realized.
As with any forecast or prediction, the assumptions and projections for the nearer years carry more certainty and confidence than for the years further into the future. The economic disruption of the past few years has made forecasting increasingly challenging as financial markets, cost of goods, and the economy overall has grown increasingly volatile on the cost side, as well as various shortterm stimulus and assistance programs that have been implemented by the state and federal governments on the revenue side. It is important that the City continue to closely monitor economic conditions locally, statewide, and nationally as well as policies at state and national levels that will impact the City’s financial health.
4 FORECAST OVERVIEW
Long Range Financial Forecast
The Long-Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) provides a current and long-range financial assessment of revenues, expenditures, fund balance, and emergency reserves. The primary objective is to provide the City Council and the community with a financial forecast and identify any significant issues that may need to be addressed in the annual budget development process.
It is important to keep in mind that a forecast is not a budget. The LRFF is a vehicle that peers into the future and makes projections about what is likely to happen if the assumptions are realized. If future deficits are projected, this forecast allows time to take corrective action to ensure finances remain stable.
This analysis focuses on the City's General Fund because it is the primary operating budget for tax supported municipal services. The Enterprise Water and Sewer Services have a separate long-range plan that is performed along with the Proposition 218 process. The materials supporting the current water and sewer rate structure are available on the City Website at https://www.cotaticity.org/345/WaterSewer-Services.
Long range financial forecasting assists the City in making decisions that lead to our ability to sustain the community’s core services. This document represents a review of the City of Cotati’s General Fund using three different scenarios.
Base Assumption
The LRFF scenarios illustrate trends of the City’s expenditures and revenues over the next 10 years.
The FY 2022-23 adopted budget is the base for the scenarios. More detailed information for the assumptions is included in the Revenue and Assumptions and Expenditure and Assumptions sections of this report. For forecasting purposes if significant non-reoccurring revenues and non-reoccurring expenditures could be identified, they were removed in determining forecasted growth/decline. This includes transfers out for Capital Projects have been excluded from the analysis in order to evaluate operations before investments in capital.
The City’s Annual Budget represents a total financing plan for all City operations and must be analyzed by its component parts to make any meaningful comparisons. Unlike a private holding company, the City cannot remove cash from any one enterprise operation to help support general tax funded operations. Although there is certainly limited financial interdependence between the funds, such as internal service fund charges to allocate common costs, each fund represented in the budget must stand alone. When analyzing City operations for budgeting, it is appropriate to look at the budget department by department. However, when reviewing long range financial forecasts, it is best to look at the fund structure and revenue and expenditure categories rather than the department structure.
Scenarios
The scenarios are modeled to provide insight into future financial capacity so that strategies can be developed to achieve long-term sustainability considering the City’s service objectives and financial challenges. They are intended to provide a high-level overview of the City’s financial situation utilizing various assumptions. Three scenarios are being presented; each scenario is described as follows:
5 1. Scenario 1 - Baseline Flat Growth- This scenario accounts for flat fiscal growth from the base year starting in FY 2022-23. Flat fiscal growth is including the following assumptions:
Revenues:
Sales Tax. Average increase using consultant projections post COVID-19 for the first two years, then increase 5.2% per year thereafter. This future projection is based on the historical average of change in Sales Tax receipts over the last 20 years. Property Tax. This is based on consultant projections using known property valuation changes, anticipated transfers of ownership and Prop 8 recaptures for the first three years and then increase by an average 6.4% in the remaining years. Though the average change in property tax revenues for the last 20 years is 11.3%, it has varied from a high year-over-year increase of 104.3% to a low of a year over year decrease of -24.3%. Therefore, we utilized the median change as represented by 6.4% to provide a best representation of future change. Other Tax. This is primarily cannabis business tax. For fiscal year 2023/24 the City is projecting a decline of approximately 15%, as sales decreased post COVID-19 as customers moved to purchasing other services and experiences that were unavailable during the shutdown. With the possible additions of local tasting rooms, this may differentiate the Cotati market from others and allow customers to both purchase experiences and product. However, the financial impact of this is still undetermined. After fiscal year 2023/24, we estimate cannabis purchases to continue to increase on average by 2% per year, in line with a conservative inflation rate. License and Franchises, Rents, Revenue from Other Agencies. Other Revenue, Charges for Services, Special Revenues, and Investment Earnings are estimated at a gradual 2% increase year over year. This is based on average trends for these accounts over the last 10 years. Transfers in and Other Sources. This includes contributions and are budgeted flat as they are based on (1) Transfers in for reimbursements to the General Fund from Prop 72 for police services, (2) interfund loan balances due from the Water and Sewer operations for the Unfunded Pension Payment initiated in 2021/22, and (3) donations made to City operations primarily for Special Events and Recreation Scholarships. Note that one-time revenues from private development fees (primarily building permit fees) as well as off-setting revenues that could partially fund staff costs (primarily Community Development and Engineering) are not included in this analysis as they are dependent on development and unpredictable.
Expenses: The baseline model utilizes the 2022/23 adopted operating budget and applies the following assumptions for the Baseline Scenario:
Salaries & Benefits (Excluding Health Insurance). All known contract changes for labor groups for future years have been incorporated into the forecast. However, unknown changes were projected using an estimated 3.5% overall increase in costs, but with no staffing FTE increases. Health and Other Insurance. Assume 7% increase in Fiscal Year 2023/24 and 5% each year thereafter.
PERS Unfunded Liabilities. Based on last available PERS information presented in the 2022 Pension Analysis Report (dated October 25, 2022), plus an estimated $100K per year provided to the 115 Trust per the Pension Management Policy. Updated actual information from CalPERS should be available in September 2023.
Debt Service. Includes new debt service for Streets and Pension Lease Debt. All Other Operating Expenses. To conservatively project expenditures, we have assumed 3.5% increases each year based on an average CPI increase.
6 2. Scenario 2 – Baseline with Hotel Development - This scenario uses the base Scenario 1 and then adds the possible impact of the Hotel Development being completed in 2023-24 and opening in FY 2024-25.
The hotel revenue model is based on consultant projections based on like hotels in the region. This scenario adds the following:
Property Tax. Additional $44,000 in Property Tax revenues beginning in FY 2025-26 then increasing consistent with the base model thereafter.
Sales Tax. Incremental increase of 1% beginning in FY 2024-25 then increasing consistent with the base model thereafter.
Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT). Receipts initiating based on 50% occupancy rate in the first year, 60% occupancy in the second year, and then overall revenue (a function of price and occupancy) increasing by 5% per year for each subsequent year. It is important to note the following regarding Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) assumptions:
The approved TOT is set at 10% per City Code 3.12.030. The proposed hotel is designed with 153 rooms.
No assumptions around increases in expenses. Though it is reasonable to assume a new contract service for TOT audits would be initiated, the City does not have a cost estimate for these services, but it is not expected to be significantly material to this evaluation.
3. Scenario 3 – Recession in 2023/24 - This scenario starts from the base assumptions in scenario 1 then estimates what an impact of an event like the great recession of 2008 would be on the City’s General Fund. Assumptions for recession include the following:
Revenues:
Sales Tax and Rents are considered initial revenue streams that are directly impacted by recession due to the pull back of consumers non-essential spending. Decrease of 35% in Fiscal Year 2023-24 followed by a 5% decrease in the year following Fiscal Year 2024-25, zero growth for the two fiscal years, Fiscal Years 2025-27, and then back to regular growth of 2.0% thereafter.
Property Tax is a lagging recession point, so it still shows growth for fiscal year 2023/24, however in fiscal Year 2024/25 there is applied a 25% decrease followed by the 15% decrease in the subsequent, no growth for two more years and then average growth of 3.2% thereafter. Other Tax, Licenses and Franchises, Investment Earnings, and Other Revenue could show immediate declines due to Cannabis Industry shrinkage and closures of business thus reducing of business licenses tax. This was estimated at a 15% decline in Fiscal Year 2023-24 followed by a 25% decrease in the year following Fiscal Year 2024-25, zero growth for the two fiscal years, Fiscal Years 2025-27, and then back to regular growth of 1.0% thereafter. Investment Earnings would deem to be a slower indicator due to investment pools like LAIF which have longer tiered investments which tend to have higher than regular returns on the decline of the financial market, but then are slower to recover.
Expenses: The model shows the maintenance of most expenses used in the baseline as if we were going to try and continue operations, but with the decline in revenues. Immediate changes assumed implemented include:
Capital Outlay, which is primarily used to fund the vehicle replacement fund, would reduce contributions by 50% for fiscal year 2023-24 and then completely discontinue providing contributions in Fiscal Year 2024-25.
7 Risks to the Forecast
Every projection is a combination of assumptions based on analysis of historical data, use of actual data when available (e.g., labor contracts, CalPERS rates), and educated assumptions based on an analysis of available information. In addition to the built-in uncertainty of projections, the City continues to experience uncertainty around future revenue and major expenses that would impact the City’s budget due partly to the structure of State municipal finance laws, described in further detail below. The major risks to these projections include:
1. Volatile Economy - Regional and statewide economic conditions can greatly impact the City’s revenues. The City’s three largest General Fund revenue sources are sales, property, and other taxes, with sales taxes representing approximately 50% of all revenue. These revenue streams, and sales tax, in particular, are sensitive to the broader economic trends and more specifically, consumer spending and development/construction. According to Beacon Economics, “U.S. economy is sturdy, though subject to policy errors to be made by the Federal Reserve. The massive fiscal outlays during the pandemic have flushed households and businesses with excess liquidity with which to continue spending. However, the U.S economy is fast approaching the end of a very hot business cycle, thus the forecast is for slower real growth.” Looking across the State, California reached a key milestone in October 2022 when the state finally recovered all the jobs that were lost due to the pandemic-driven shutdowns. At this time, the overall economic climate is described as uncertain due to continued interest rate hikes to fight inflation, leading to more expensive mortgage rates, which will slow housing sales or weaken demand for major purchases such as appliances or furnishings or related products. Additionally, with the dip in oil prices, consumers now look to refocus their spending on experiences such as travel.
2. State Takeaways and Borrowing - During times of economic downturn, the State of California has previously shifted, borrowed, or took money from cities to cover its own budget shortfalls. To protect local governments, Proposition 1A was passed in 2004 to prevent local revenues from being transferred away to the state. However, Proposition 1A can be suspended if the Governor declares a fiscal necessity and two-thirds of the Legislature concur. The first emergency suspension of Proposition 1A was passed by the Legislature as part of the 2009-10 budget package. Under this provision the State borrowed 8% of the property tax revenue and was required to repay the obligations to cities, plus interest, by 2013. After this initial repayment, the legislature may consider only one additional borrowing within a ten-year period. While it cannot be predicted if the State will once again borrow money from local governments, it is a possibility.
3. Insurance Premiums - The City is a participant in the California Intergovernmental Risk Authority (CIRA) which is a self-insured joint powers authority that was renamed and merged with the Redwood Empire Municipal Insurance Fund (REMIF) in 2021 to manage insurance claims, benefit programs, and risk management needs of 52 cities or special districts. Continued costs related to both health insurance premiums as well as general liability and workers compensation liability are expected to continue to increase, many in double digits. The LRFF assumes 15% in the next year and then 5% per year thereafter. Just as local governments revenues are subject to impacts from the regional and national economic conditions, the city’s insurance premiums are additionally impacted. 8 4. Unfunded Liability Pension Costs – Rather than provide retirement benefits through Social Security, the City instead provides pension benefits to its employees and retirees through six pension plans with CalPERS. As of 06/30/2021 (the most recent official information available), the plans had a total accrued liability (the amount necessary, as of the valuation date, to fund all earned pension benefits for current employees, retirees, and beneficiaries now and into the future) of approximately $41.3 million, held approximately $33.1 million in assets, and its plans were underfunded by approximately $8.2 million.
In January 2021, the City issued a pension obligation refunding loan and a street improvements financing loan (UAL Refunding Loans) that allowed it to pay down the UAL by $6,000,000. After the UAL refunding, the City programmed relatively small UAL payments to CalPERS, as well as payments on the two loans. Since the loan interest rates are significantly lower than the interest rate charged by CalPERS, the refunding allowed the City to generate approximately $2.25 million in cash flow savings.
Subsequent to the refunding, in July of 2022 CalPERS reported a significant loss of 7.5% leading to a funding shortfall of 14.3% (sum of the 7.5% investment loss and 6.8% discount rate). This shortfall translated to approximately $4.7 million in new UAL for the City. The projections in this forecast are based on the 2022 Pension Liability Review generated by Ridgeline Municipal Strategies which did take into account the amortization of these losses. However, it does not assume application of no negative amortization schedules or future losses/gains for the current fiscal year forward. A new CalPERS report should be made available in September of 2023, after which staff will report back to the City Council with a new Pension Liability Update.
5. City Operational Changes and Related Staffing Adjustments – The City is continuing to focus on providing the best of class service to our community. This service is provided by three separate bargaining units; the CEA, the Cotati Police Officers Association (CPOA), and the Cotati Police Management Association (CPMA), as well as the Non-Represented group and a single employment agreement with the City Manager. Each of these groups negotiate their set period contracts for council approval. All known contract changes for future years were incorporated into the future projections.
Unknown changes are projected using cost trends of 3.5%, but with zero staffing FTE increases.
6. No Major New One-Time Expenses - The expenditure forecast does not include any provisions for unexpected one-time expenses, such as changes in legislation, unexpected events, acts of nature, or other such factors that could require the City to expend a significant amount of General Fund resources. Also, as mentioned previously, the LRFF does not account for transfers or capital projects, due to the variability of these, but focuses on on-going operational costs/revenues.
GENERAL FUND FORECAST
Below are the financial summaries of the three scenarios outlined. The following tables and charts show the General Fund operating fund balance for each of the scenarios over a 10-year period. Full-size detailed tables with the revenues and expenses by classification are included in Appendices A-C Scenario 1 - Appendix A: Baseline – Flat Growth
Scenario 2 – Appendix B: Baseline with Hotel
Fiscal Year
2022/23
Fiscal Year
2023/24
Fiscal Year
2024/25
Fiscal Year
2025/26
Fiscal Year
2026/27
Fiscal Year
2027/28
Fiscal Year
2028/29
Fiscal Year
2029/30
Fiscal Year
2030/31
Fiscal Year
2031/32
Fiscal Year
2032/33
Base Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 9,317,160 10,333,597 10,898,117 11,386,417 11,946,260 12,593,307 13,349,457 14,210,369 15,183,107 16,275,158 17,494,457 23 TOTAL REVENUES 10,444,809 10,249,412 10,498,285 10,908,143 11,345,705 11,819,470 12,303,821 12,810,823 13,341,587 13,897,280 14,479,129 4 TOTAL EXPENSES (9,428,372) (9,684,892) (10,009,985) (10,348,300) (10,698,658) (11,063,319) (11,442,909) (11,838,086) (12,249,536) (12,677,981) (13,124,176)5 ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) 1,016,437 564,520 488,300 559,843 647,047 756,151 860,912 972,738 1,092,051 1,219,299 1,354,953 67 ENDING OPERATING FUND BALANCE 10,333,597 10,898,117 11,386,417 11,946,260 12,593,307 13,349,457 14,210,369 15,183,107 16,275,158 17,494,457 18,849,410 89 REQUIRED RESERVE (2,357,093) (2,421,223) (2,502,496) (2,587,075) (2,674,665) (2,765,830) (2,860,727) (2,959,521) (3,062,384) (3,169,495) (3,281,044) 1011
ENDING OPERATING FUND BALANCE AFTER RESERVES BEFORE CAPITAL 7,976,504 8,476,894 8,883,920 9,359,185 9,918,642 10,583,627 11,349,642 12,223,585 13,212,774 14,324,962 15,568,366 GENERAL FUND TEN YEAR FORECAST 2022/23-2031/32
SCENARIO 1 - GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - BASELINE - FLAT GROWTH Fiscal Year
2022/23
Fiscal Year
2023/24
Fiscal Year
2024/25
Fiscal Year
2025/26
Fiscal Year
2026/27
Fiscal Year
2027/28
Fiscal Year
2028/29
Fiscal Year
2029/30
Fiscal Year
2030/31
Fiscal Year
2031/32
Fiscal Year
2032/33
Base Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 9,317,160 10,333,597 10,898,117 11,944,867 13,297,212 14,746,571 16,314,743 17,997,823 19,803,103 21,738,308 23,811,618 23 TOTAL REVENUES 10,444,809 10,249,412 11,056,735 11,700,646 12,148,018 12,631,491 13,125,989 13,643,365 14,184,740 14,751,291 14,751,291 4 TOTAL EXPENSES (9,428,372) (9,684,892) (10,009,985) (10,348,300) (10,698,658) (11,063,319) (11,442,909) (11,838,086) (12,249,536) (12,677,981) (12,677,981)5 ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) 1,016,437 564,520 1,046,750 1,352,345 1,449,359 1,568,172 1,683,080 1,805,280 1,935,204 2,073,311 2,073,311 67 ENDING OPERATING FUND BALANCE 10,333,597 10,898,117 11,944,867 13,297,212 14,746,571 16,314,743 17,997,823 19,803,103 21,738,308 23,811,618 25,884,929 89 REQUIRED RESERVE (2,357,093) (2,421,223) (2,502,496) (2,587,075) (2,674,665) (2,765,830) (2,860,727) (2,959,521) (3,062,384) (3,169,495) (3,169,495) 1011 ENDING OPERATING FUND BALANCE AFTER RESERVES BEFORE CAPITAL 7,976,504 8,476,894 9,442,370 10,710,137 12,071,907 13,548,914 15,137,096 16,843,582 18,675,924 20,642,123 22,715,434 GENERAL FUND TEN YEAR FORECAST 2022/23-2032/33
SCENARIO 2 - GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - BASELINE -WITH HOTEL Scenario 3 – Appendix C: Recession in 2023/24
Fiscal Year
2022/23
Fiscal Year
2023/24
Fiscal Year
2024/25
Fiscal Year
2025/26
Fiscal Year
2026/27
Fiscal Year
2027/28
Fiscal Year
2028/29
Fiscal Year
2029/30
Fiscal Year
2030/31
Fiscal Year
2031/32
Fiscal Year
2032/33
Base Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 9,317,160 10,333,597 8,789,004 6,030,543 2,706,948 (957,475) (4,886,835) (9,051,300) (13,463,105) (18,135,087) (23,080,719) 23 TOTAL REVENUES 10,444,809 8,140,299 7,135,776 6,906,064 6,912,628 7,009,312 7,150,680 7,295,323 7,443,322 7,594,761 7,594,761 4 TOTAL EXPENSES (9,428,372) (9,684,892) (9,894,237) (10,229,659) (10,577,051) (10,938,672) (11,315,146) (11,707,128) (12,115,304) (12,540,393) (12,540,393) 5 ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) 1,016,437 (1,544,593) (2,758,461) (3,323,594) (3,664,423) (3,929,360) (4,164,465) (4,411,805) (4,671,982) (4,945,632) (4,945,632) 67 ENDING OPERATING FUND BALANCE 10,333,597 8,789,004 6,030,543 2,706,948 (957,475) (4,886,835) (9,051,300) (13,463,105) (18,135,087) (23,080,719) (28,026,351)89 REQUIRED RESERVE (2,357,093) (2,421,223) (2,473,559) (2,557,415) (2,644,263) (2,734,668) (2,828,786) (2,926,782) (3,028,826) (3,135,098) (3,135,098) 1011
ENDING OPERATING FUND BALANCE AFTER RESERVES BEFORE CAPITAL 7,976,504 6,367,781 3,556,983 149,533 (3,601,737) (7,621,503) (11,880,087) (16,389,887) (21,163,913) (26,215,817) (31,161,449) SCENARIO 3 - GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - Recession 2023/24 GENERAL FUND TEN YEAR FORECAST 2022/23-2032/33
REVENUES HISTORICAL TRENDS
Chart 1 provides a summary of the total General Fund Actual Revenues from 2000 to 2022 and budget revenues for fiscal year 2022-23.
CHART 1 – General Fund Revenue FY 2000-2001 to FY 2022-23 Chart 2 provides a summary of the top two General Fund revenue source types from 2000 to 2022.
CHART 2 – Top Three General Fund Revenues FY 2000-2022
02468
10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Millions
Top Revenue Historical Trends
Property Tax Sales Tax Bradley Burns Sales Tax Measure S
APPENDIX - DEAIL SCENARIO REPORTS
Included within this appendix are the details for the Revenues and Expenses by Function for the General Fund, as summarized within the scenario summaries under General Fund Forecast. This provides in depth information on the exact changes by fiscal year based on each function as outlined in the assumptions.
A. Baseline – Flat Growth
Row Labels Sum of 2022/23 Sum of 2023/24 Sum of 2024/25 Sum of 2025/26 Sum of 2026/27 Sum of 2027/28 Sum of 2028/29 Sum of 2029/30 Sum of 2030/31 Sum of 2031/32 Sum of 2032/33 Revenue
601 - PROPERTY TAX 2,098,928 2,012,395 2,149,302 2,205,184 2,271,340 2,355,379 2,430,751 2,508,535 2,588,809 2,671,650 2,757,143 603 - SALES TAX 6,088,210 6,070,000 6,258,680 6,584,131 6,926,506 7,286,684 7,665,592 8,064,203 8,483,541 8,924,685 9,388,769604 - OTHER TAX 638,945 751,700 645,334 651,788 658,306 664,889 671,538 678,253 685,036 691,886 698,805 606 - LICENSE & FRANCHISE 548,658 537,900 559,631 570,824 582,240 593,885 605,763 617,878 630,236 642,840 655,697607 - RENTS 78,948 77,400 80,527 82,137 83,780 85,456 87,165 88,908 90,686 92,500 94,350 608 - REVENUE - OTHER AGENCIES 9,996 203,600 10,196 10,400 10,608 10,820 11,036 11,257 11,482 11,712 11,946 609 - OTHER REVENUE 18,258 17,900 18,623 18,996 19,376 19,763 20,158 20,561 20,973 21,392 21,820 620 - CHARGES FOR SVS 317,475 311,250 323,825 330,301 336,907 343,645 350,518 357,528 364,679 371,973 379,412 640 - CHARGES FOR SVA-PUB SFTY 51,000 64,800 52,020 53,060 54,122 55,204 56,308 57,434 58,583 59,755 60,950 650 - INVESTMENT EARNINGS 27,030 26,500 27,571 28,122 28,684 29,258 29,843 30,440 31,049 31,670 32,303670 - TRANSFR IN & OTHR SOURCES 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 680 - SPECIAL REVENUES 30,600 30,000 31,212 31,836 32,473 33,122 33,785 34,461 35,150 35,853 36,570 660 - CONTRIBUTIONS 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 Revenue Total 10,444,809 10,249,412 10,498,285 10,908,143 11,345,705 11,819,470 12,303,821 12,810,823 13,341,587 13,897,280 14,479,129 Expense
700 - WAGES & SALARIES (3,326,076) (3,213,600) (3,442,489) (3,562,976) (3,687,680) (3,816,749) (3,950,335) (4,088,597) (4,231,698) (4,379,807) (4,533,100) 701 - INCENTIVES (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) 702 - FRINGE BENEFITS (27,510) (26,200) (28,886) (30,330) (31,846) (33,439) (35,111) (36,866) (38,709) (40,645) (42,677)703 - LEAVE (445,733) (430,660) (461,334) (477,480) (494,192) (511,489) (529,391) (547,920) (567,097) (586,945) (607,488) 704 - DEDUCTIONS (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990)704 - PENSION UNFUNDED LIABILITY (396,917) (370,950) (424,701) (454,430) (486,240) (520,277) (556,696) (595,665) (637,361) (681,976) (729,715)705 - INSURANCE (622,687) (581,950) (653,821) (686,512) (720,837) (756,879) (794,723) (834,459) (876,182) (919,992) (965,991)706 - TAX (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) 707 - PAYOUTS (109,172) (105,480) (112,993) (116,948) (119,287) (121,672) (124,106) (126,588) (129,120) (131,702) (134,336) 800 - MATERIAL & SUPPLY (93,303) (88,860) (96,569) (99,949) (103,447) (107,067) (110,815) (114,693) (118,707) (122,862) (127,162) 801 - CONTRACT SERVICES (1,666,239) (1,586,894) (1,724,557) (1,784,917) (1,847,389) (1,912,047) (1,978,969) (2,048,233) (2,119,921) (2,194,118) (2,270,912) 802 - LEGAL (137,074) (130,547) (141,872) (146,837) (151,977) (157,296) (162,801) (168,499) (174,397) (180,501) (186,818) 803 - UTILITIES (277,778) (264,550) (287,500) (297,562) (307,977) (318,756) (329,913) (341,459) (353,411) (365,780) (378,582)804 - INSURANCE (549,076) (513,155) (576,530) (605,356) (635,624) (667,405) (700,775) (735,814) (772,605) (811,235) (851,797)805 - REPAIR & MAINTENANCE (122,850) (117,000) (127,150) (131,600) (136,206) (140,973) (145,907) (151,014) (156,300) (161,770) (167,432)806 - OTHER EXPENSES (437,460) (416,629) (452,772) (468,619) (485,020) (501,996) (519,566) (537,751) (556,572) (576,052) (596,214)807 - FISCAL FEES (66,654) (63,480) (68,987) (71,401) (73,900) (76,487) (79,164) (81,935) (84,803) (87,771) (90,843) 808 - DEBT SERVICE (642,529) (642,208) (642,766) (643,010) (643,263) (643,525) (643,796) (644,077) (644,368) (644,668) (644,979) 809 - CAPITAL OUTLAY (112,925) (225,849) (115,748) (118,641) (121,607) (124,648) (127,764) (130,958) (134,232) (137,588) (141,027)811 - MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSE (11,550) (11,000) (11,954) (12,373) (12,806) (13,254) (13,718) (14,198) (14,695) (15,209) (15,741) 660 - CONTRIBUTIONS (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) Expense Total (9,428,372) (9,684,892) (10,009,985) (10,348,300) (10,698,658) (11,063,319) (11,442,909) (11,838,086) (12,249,536) (12,677,981) (13,124,176) Grand Total 1,016,437 564,520 488,300 559,843 647,047 756,151 860,912 972,738 1,092,051 1,219,299 1,354,953 B – Baseline with Hotel
Row Labels Sum of 2022/23 Sum of 2023/24 Sum of 2024/25 Sum of 2025/26 Sum of 2026/27 Sum of 2027/28 Sum of 2028/29 Sum of 2029/30 Sum of 2030/31 Sum of 2031/32 Sum of 2032/33 Revenue
601 - PROPERTY TAX 2,098,928 2,012,395 2,149,302 2,161,184 2,226,020 2,308,382 2,382,251 2,458,483 2,537,154 2,618,343 2,702,130 603 - SALES TAX 6,088,210 6,070,000 6,258,680 6,649,973 6,995,771 7,359,551 7,742,248 8,144,845 8,568,377 9,013,932 9,302,378604 - OTHER TAX 638,945 751,700 1,203,784 1,422,449 1,436,673 1,451,040 1,465,550 1,480,206 1,495,008 1,509,958 1,558,277 606 - LICENSE & FRANCHISE 548,658 537,900 559,631 570,824 582,240 593,885 605,763 617,878 630,236 642,840 663,411607 - RENTS 78,948 77,400 80,527 82,137 83,780 85,456 87,165 88,908 90,686 92,500 95,460 608 - REVENUE - OTHER AGENCIES 9,996 203,600 10,196 10,400 10,608 10,820 11,036 11,257 11,482 11,712 12,087 609 - OTHER REVENUE 18,258 17,900 18,623 18,996 19,376 19,763 20,158 20,561 20,973 21,392 22,077 620 - CHARGES FOR SVS 317,475 311,250 323,825 330,301 336,907 343,645 350,518 357,528 364,679 371,973 383,876 640 - CHARGES FOR SVA-PUB SFTY 51,000 64,800 52,020 53,060 54,122 55,204 56,308 57,434 58,583 59,755 61,667 650 - INVESTMENT EARNINGS 27,030 26,500 27,571 28,122 28,684 29,258 29,843 30,440 31,049 31,670 32,683670 - TRANSFR IN & OTHR SOURCES 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 345,786 680 - SPECIAL REVENUES 30,600 30,000 31,212 31,836 32,473 33,122 33,785 34,461 35,150 35,853 37,000 660 - CONTRIBUTIONS 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,502 Revenue Total 10,444,809 10,249,412 11,056,735 11,700,646 12,148,018 12,631,491 13,125,989 13,643,365 14,184,740 14,751,291 15,223,333 Expense
700 - WAGES & SALARIES (3,326,076) (3,213,600) (3,442,489) (3,562,976) (3,687,680) (3,816,749) (3,950,335) (4,088,597) (4,231,698) (4,379,807) (4,519,961) 701 - INCENTIVES (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (95,790) 702 - FRINGE BENEFITS (27,510) (26,200) (28,886) (30,330) (31,846) (33,439) (35,111) (36,866) (38,709) (40,645) (41,945)703 - LEAVE (445,733) (430,660) (461,334) (477,480) (494,192) (511,489) (529,391) (547,920) (567,097) (586,945) (605,728) 704 - DEDUCTIONS (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (480,902)704 - PENSION UNFUNDED LIABILITY (396,917) (370,950) (424,701) (454,430) (486,240) (520,277) (556,696) (595,665) (637,361) (681,976) (703,800)705 - INSURANCE (622,687) (581,950) (653,821) (686,512) (720,837) (756,879) (794,723) (834,459) (876,182) (919,992) (949,431)706 - TAX (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (57,328) 707 - PAYOUTS (109,172) (105,480) (112,993) (116,948) (119,287) (121,672) (124,106) (126,588) (129,120) (131,702) (135,916) 800 - MATERIAL & SUPPLY (93,303) (88,860) (96,569) (99,949) (103,447) (107,067) (110,815) (114,693) (118,707) (122,862) (126,794) 801 - CONTRACT SERVICES (1,666,239) (1,586,894) (1,724,557) (1,784,917) (1,847,389) (1,912,047) (1,978,969) (2,048,233) (2,119,921) (2,194,118) (2,264,330) 802 - LEGAL (137,074) (130,547) (141,872) (146,837) (151,977) (157,296) (162,801) (168,499) (174,397) (180,501) (186,277) 803 - UTILITIES (277,778) (264,550) (287,500) (297,562) (307,977) (318,756) (329,913) (341,459) (353,411) (365,780) (377,485)804 - INSURANCE (549,076) (513,155) (576,530) (605,356) (635,624) (667,405) (700,775) (735,814) (772,605) (811,235) (837,195)805 - REPAIR & MAINTENANCE (122,850) (117,000) (127,150) (131,600) (136,206) (140,973) (145,907) (151,014) (156,300) (161,770) (166,947)806 - OTHER EXPENSES (437,460) (416,629) (452,772) (468,619) (485,020) (501,996) (519,566) (537,751) (556,572) (576,052) (594,486)807 - FISCAL FEES (66,654) (63,480) (68,987) (71,401) (73,900) (76,487) (79,164) (81,935) (84,803) (87,771) (90,579) 808 - DEBT SERVICE (642,529) (642,208) (642,766) (643,010) (643,263) (643,525) (643,796) (644,077) (644,368) (644,668) (665,298) 809 - CAPITAL OUTLAY (112,925) (225,849) (115,748) (118,641) (121,607) (124,648) (127,764) (130,958) (134,232) (137,588) (141,990)811 - MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSE (11,550) (11,000) (11,954) (12,373) (12,806) (13,254) (13,718) (14,198) (14,695) (15,209) (15,696) 660 - CONTRIBUTIONS (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,800) Expense Total (9,428,372) (9,684,892) (10,009,985) (10,348,300) (10,698,658) (11,063,319) (11,442,909) (11,838,086) (12,249,536) (12,677,981) (13,083,676) Net Operating Surplus (Deficit) 1,016,437 564,520 1,046,750 1,352,345 1,449,359 1,568,172 1,683,080 1,805,280 1,935,204 2,073,311 2,139,657 C – Recession in 2023/24
Row Labels Sum of 2022/23 Sum of 2023/24 Sum of 2024/25 Sum of 2025/26 Sum of 2026/27 Sum of 2027/28 Sum of 2028/29 Sum of 2029/30 Sum of 2030/31 Sum of 2031/32 Sum of 2032/33 Revenue
601 - PROPERTY TAX 2,098,928 2,012,395 1,574,196 1,338,067 1,338,067 1,338,067 1,380,885 1,425,073 1,470,675 1,517,737 1,566,305 603 - SALES TAX 3,945,500 6,070,000 3,748,225 3,748,225 3,748,225 3,823,190 3,899,653 3,977,646 4,057,199 4,138,343 4,221,110604 - OTHER TAX 638,945 751,700 479,209 479,209 479,209 484,001 488,841 493,729 498,667 503,653 508,690 606 - LICENSE & FRANCHISE 457,215 537,900 342,911 342,911 342,911 346,340 349,804 353,302 356,835 360,403 364,007607 - RENTS 50,310 77,400 47,795 47,795 47,795 48,750 49,725 50,720 51,734 52,769 53,824 608 - REVENUE - OTHER AGENCIES 207,672 203,600 211,825 216,062 220,383 224,791 229,287 233,872 238,550 243,321 248,187 609 - OTHER REVENUE 15,215 17,900 11,411 11,411 11,411 11,525 11,641 11,757 11,875 11,993 12,113 620 - CHARGES FOR SVS 280,125 311,250 277,324 277,324 277,324 282,870 288,528 294,298 300,184 306,188 312,312 640 - CHARGES FOR SVA-PUB SFTY 51,000 64,800 52,020 53,060 54,122 55,204 56,308 57,434 58,583 59,755 60,950 650 - INVESTMENT EARNINGS 22,525 26,500 16,894 16,894 16,894 17,063 17,233 17,406 17,580 17,756 17,933670 - TRANSFR IN & OTHR SOURCES 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 335,064 680 - SPECIAL REVENUES 31,500 30,000 32,603 33,744 34,925 36,147 37,412 38,722 40,077 41,479 42,931 660 - CONTRIBUTIONS 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 Revenue Total 10,444,809 8,140,299 7,135,776 6,906,064 6,912,628 7,009,312 7,150,680 7,295,323 7,443,322 7,594,761 7,749,726 Expense
700 - WAGES & SALARIES (3,326,076) (3,213,600) (3,442,489) (3,562,976) (3,687,680) (3,816,749) (3,950,335) (4,088,597) (4,231,698) (4,379,807) (4,533,100) 701 - INCENTIVES (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) (92,820) 702 - FRINGE BENEFITS (27,510) (26,200) (28,886) (30,330) (31,846) (33,439) (35,111) (36,866) (38,709) (40,645) (42,677)703 - LEAVE (445,733) (430,660) (461,334) (477,480) (494,192) (511,489) (529,391) (547,920) (567,097) (586,945) (607,488) 704 - DEDUCTIONS (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990) (465,990)704 - PENSION UNFUNDED LIABILITY (396,917) (370,950) (424,701) (454,430) (486,240) (520,277) (556,696) (595,665) (637,361) (681,976) (729,715)705 - INSURANCE (622,687) (581,950) (653,821) (686,512) (720,837) (756,879) (794,723) (834,459) (876,182) (919,992) (965,991)706 - TAX (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) (55,550) 707 - PAYOUTS (109,172) (105,480) (112,993) (116,948) (119,287) (121,672) (124,106) (126,588) (129,120) (131,702) (134,336) 800 - MATERIAL & SUPPLY (93,303) (88,860) (96,569) (99,949) (103,447) (107,067) (110,815) (114,693) (118,707) (122,862) (127,162) 801 - CONTRACT SERVICES (1,666,239) (1,586,894) (1,724,557) (1,784,917) (1,847,389) (1,912,047) (1,978,969) (2,048,233) (2,119,921) (2,194,118) (2,270,912) 802 - LEGAL (137,074) (130,547) (141,872) (146,837) (151,977) (157,296) (162,801) (168,499) (174,397) (180,501) (186,818) 803 - UTILITIES (277,778) (264,550) (287,500) (297,562) (307,977) (318,756) (329,913) (341,459) (353,411) (365,780) (378,582)804 - INSURANCE (549,076) (513,155) (576,530) (605,356) (635,624) (667,405) (700,775) (735,814) (772,605) (811,235) (851,797)805 - REPAIR & MAINTENANCE (122,850) (117,000) (127,150) (131,600) (136,206) (140,973) (145,907) (151,014) (156,300) (161,770) (167,432)806 - OTHER EXPENSES (437,460) (416,629) (452,772) (468,619) (485,020) (501,996) (519,566) (537,751) (556,572) (576,052) (596,214)807 - FISCAL FEES (66,654) (63,480) (68,987) (71,401) (73,900) (76,487) (79,164) (81,935) (84,803) (87,771) (90,843) 808 - DEBT SERVICE (642,529) (642,208) (642,766) (643,010) (643,263) (643,525) (643,796) (644,077) (644,368) (644,668) (667,232) 809 - CAPITAL OUTLAY (112,925) (225,849) - - - - - - - - -811 - MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSE (11,550) (11,000) (11,954) (12,373) (12,806) (13,254) (13,718) (14,198) (14,695) (15,209) (15,741) 660 - CONTRIBUTIONS (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) (25,000) Expense Total (9,428,372) (9,684,892) (9,894,237) (10,229,659) (10,577,051) (10,938,672) (11,315,146) (11,707,128) (12,115,304) (12,540,393) (13,005,401) Net Operating Surplus (Deficit) 1,016,437 (1,544,593) (2,758,461) (3,323,594) (3,664,423) (3,929,360) (4,164,465) (4,411,805) (4,671,982) (4,945,632) (5,255,675)