Long-Range
Financial
Forecast
Fiscal Years 2023-2033
Forecast
Assumptions
• Cotati is subject to the similar economic factors as
the region and across the State
• Based on best available information today.
• Less certain farther into the future
• Timing of future possible economic
recessions are unknown
• State or Regional legislative or tax changes
• Three Scenarios
• Base Line with Gradual Growth (Status Quo)
• New Hotel Development (New Revenue Source)
• Recession in 2023/24 (Worse Case)
Base Revenue Assumptions
Sales Tax
Flat then 5.2% growth per year
Property Tax
Slow Growth then 6.4% growth per year
Other Tax
Decline 15% then 2.0% growth per year
License and Franchises, Rents, Revenue from
Other Agencies, Other Revenue, Charges for
Services, Special Revenues, and Investment
Earning
Average 2.0% increase per year
Average Revenue Growth of 3.3% over 10 years
Millions
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 $0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
Top Revenue Historical and Forecast
Property Tax Sales Tax Bradley Burns Sales Tax Measure A/G/S Forecast Assumptions
Operating Expenses
• Based on FY 2022-23 budget allocation
• Salaries and Benefits
• No new positions added
• Existing MOU’s
• Approximate change in personnel costs: of 3.50% per year • Pension Unfunded Liability Based on Last Available Pension Analysis plus minimum contributions to 115 Trust.
• Debt Service includes new Street and Pension Lease Debt which is consistent payments
• Other expenses: 3.50% growth per year
• Combined total expense growth: 2.8% per year
General Fund Baseline
Millions
FY 2022/23
FY 2023/24
FY 2024/25
FY 2025/26
FY 2026/27
FY 2027/28
FY 2028/29
FY 2029/30
FY 2030/31FY 2031/32FY 2032/33
$ -
$ 2.0
$ 4.0
$ 6.0
$ 8.0
$ 10.0
$ 12.0
$ 14.0
$ 16.0
TOTAL REVENUES TOTAL EXPENSES ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) Forecast Assumptions
Does Not Include Major Equipment
& Infrastructure Costs
• Includes
• Vehicles & Equipment: $175,000 per year then reducing to $60,000 thereafter
• Minor Equipment and Supplies Used in Operations
• Tech and Data Contract Services
• Serve the Network Management and Major Technological Updates • JPA for Sonoma County Consortium for most PD and Dispatch Computerized Equipment
5 Year CIP vs
Projected
Available
Funds
•Available funds include fund
balance rolled forward does
not cover City Capital
Projects.
•Rely on Special Revenue
Funds (Gas Tax, RMRA, Parks
Measure M and Grants).
Millions
FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 FY2027 FY2028
$ -
$ 2
$ 4
$ 6
$ 8
$ 10
$ 12
$ 14
$ 16
$ 18
Public Works - Govt. Buildings Total
Public Works - Parks Total
Public Works - Streets Total
Available Fund Balance Plus Operating Surplus
General Fund - Hotel
Millions
FY 2022/23
FY 2023/24
FY 2024/25
FY 2025/26
FY 2026/27
FY 2027/28
FY 2028/29
FY 2029/30
FY 2030/31FY 2031/32FY 2032/33
$ -
$ 2.0
$ 4.0
$ 6.0
$ 8.0
$ 10.0
$ 12.0
$ 14.0
$ 16.0
TOTAL REVENUES TOTAL EXPENSES ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) General Fund - Recession
Millions
FY 2022/23
FY 2023/24
FY 2024/25
FY 2025/26
FY 2026/27
FY 2027/28
FY 2028/29
FY 2029/30
FY 2030/31
FY 2031/32
FY 2032/33
$ -
$ 2.0
$ 4.0
$ 6.0
$ 8.0
$ 10.0
$ 12.0
$ 14.0
$ (2.0)
$ (4.0)
$ (6.0)
TOTAL REVENUES TOTAL EXPENSES ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) Comparative Operating
Surplus/(Deficit)
Millions
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
$ -
$ 1.0
$ 2.0
$ 3.0
$ (1.0)
$ (2.0)
$ (3.0)
$ (4.0)
$ (5.0)
$ (6.0)
Hotel Baseline Recession
Summary
• LRFP is a Management Planning Tool Only
• Cotati’s challenges are not unique
• Significant Economic Downturn Would Demand Drastic Operating Reductions
• Shows Important Factors to Actively Managing Cash Flows & Flexible Need of Liquidity of Investments
• Economic Development and Special Revenues are Critical to Infrastructure Programs for Streets and Parks.
• Measure S Continues to be Critical to Core Operations and Infrastructure Programs