Cotati City Council
January 23, 2024

Long-Range
Financial
Forecast
Fiscal Years 2024-2034
Forecast
Assumptions
• Cotati is subject to the similar economic factors as
the region and across the State
• Based on best available information today.
• Less certain farther into the future
• Timing of future possible economic
recessions are unknown
• State or Regional legislative or tax changes
• Three Scenarios
• Base Line with Gradual Growth (Status Quo)
• New Hotel Development (New Revenue Source)
• Recession in 2026/27 (Worse Case)
Millions
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 $0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
Property Tax Sales Tax Bradley Burns Sales Tax Measure A/G/S Top Revenues Historical and Forecast
Forecast Assumptions
Operating Expenses
• Based on trended historical audited actuals for 5 years plus Fiscal Year 2023-24 budget
• Salaries and Benefits
• No new positions added
• Existing MOU’s
• Pension Unfunded Liability Based on Last Available Pension Analysis without additional contributions
• Debt Service includes new Street and Pension Lease Debt which is consistent payments
• Combined total expense growth on average is almost 8% per year General Fund Baseline
Millions
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 $ -
$ 5
$ 10
$ 15
$ 20
$ (5)
Operating Revenues to Expenses
Revenue Total Operating Expense Total Operating Income/(Deficit) Forecast Assumptions
Does Not Include Major Equipment
& Infrastructure Costs
• Includes
• Minor Equipment and Supplies Used in Operations
• Tech and Data Contract Services
• Serve the Network Management and Major Technological Updates • JPA for Sonoma County Consortium for most PD and Dispatch Computerized Equipment
General Fund - Hotel
Millions
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 $ -
$ 5
$ 10
$ 15
$ 20
$ (5)
Operating Revenues to Expenses
Revenue Total Operating Expense Total Operating Income/(Deficit) General Fund - Recession
Millions
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 $ -
$ 5
$ 10
$ 15
$ 20
$ (5)
$ (10)
Operating Revenues to Expenses
Revenue Total Operating Expense Total Operating Income/(Deficit) Comparative Operating
Surplus/(Deficit)
Millions
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
$ -
$ 1
$ 2
$ 3
$ (1)
$ (2)
$ (3)
$ (4)
$ (5)
$ (6)
$ (7)
Operating Revenues to Expenses
Baseline Hotel Recession
Summary
• LRFP is a Management Planning Tool Only
• Cotati’s challenges are not unique
• Significant Economic Downturn Would Demand Drastic Operating Reductions
• Shows Important Factors to Actively Managing Cash Flows & Flexible Need of Liquidity of Investments
• Economic Development and Special Revenues are Critical to Infrastructure Programs for Streets and Parks.
• Measure S Continues to be Critical to Core Operations and Infrastructure Programs