City of Cotati
2024-2034
Updated January 23, 2024
Prepared By:
- Damien O’Bid, City Manager
- Angela Courter, Director of Administrative Services
- Neil Tomlinson, Senior Accountant
General Fund
Long Range Financial Forecast
City of Cotati
General Fund - Financial Forecast
FY 2022-23 to FY 2032-33
Contents
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................3 City Overview ........................................................................................................................3 Objectives...............................................................................................................................3 FORECAST OVERVIEW.................................................................................................................4 Long Range Financial Forecast..............................................................................................4 Base Assumption....................................................................................................................4 Scenarios ................................................................................................................................4 Risks to the Forecast ..............................................................................................................6 GENERAL FUND FORECAST........................................................................................................8 REVENUES HISTORICAL AND PROJECTIONS .......................................................................10 EXPENDITURES HISTORICAL AND PROJECTIONS ..............................................................13 3 INTRODUCTION
City Overview
The City’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2023-24 adopted General Fund Operating Budget is $9.2 million with approximately 51 FTE budgeted positions. The City has the following departments to supply service to the community: City Manager, Administrative Services, Planning and Building, Public Works and Engineering, Police Services, and Recreation.
Objectives
The Long-Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) through FY2033/34 represents a continuing effort to analyze the City’s long-term fiscal condition based upon a reasonable set of economic and operational assumptions. It is an important management tool that can be used by both the City Council and the City Manager for identifying fiscal trends and issues which must be addressed to assure continued financial success. With early detection, financial trends identified as potential problems can be dealt with in a reasonable manner rather than waiting for a crisis to occur. The set of forecasts contained in this report is not a prediction of what will occur. The forecast is a snapshot in time and an approximate view of what could occur in the future if all the assumptions are realized.
As with any forecast or prediction, the assumptions and projections for the nearer years carry more certainty and confidence than for the years further into the future. The economic disruption of the past few years has made forecasting increasingly challenging as financial markets, cost of goods, and the economy overall has grown increasingly volatile along with various stimulus and assistance programs that have been implemented by the state and federal governments. It is important that the City continues to closely monitor economic conditions locally, statewide, and nationally and policies at state and national levels that will impact the City’s financial health. 4 FORECAST OVERVIEW
Long Range Financial Forecast
The Long-Range Financial Forecast (LRFF) provides a current and long-range financial assessment of revenues, expenditures, fund balance, and emergency reserves. The primary objective is to provide the City Council and the community with a financial forecast and identify any significant issues that may need to be addressed in the annual budget development process.
It is important to keep in mind that a forecast is not a budget. The LRFF is a vehicle that peers into the future and makes projections about what is likely to happen given certain assumptions. If future deficits are projected, then the forecast allows time to take corrective action to ensure finances remain stable.
This analysis is centered on the City's General Fund because it is the primary operating budget for tax supported municipal services. Long range financial forecasting assists the City in making decisions that lead to our ability to sustain the community’s core services. This document represents a review of the City of Cotati’s General Fund using three different scenarios.
Base Assumption
The LRFF scenarios illustrate trends of the City’s expenditures and revenues over the next 10 years. The FY 2023-24 adopted budget, is incorporated into the assumptions for the scenarios.
More detailed information about the assumptions is included in the Revenue and Assumptions and Expenditure and Assumptions sections of this report. It is important to note the historical LRFF figures for both revenues and expenditures are actual numbers. For forecasting purposes if nonreoccurring revenues and non-reoccurring expenditures could be identified, they were removed in determining forecasted growth/decline.
The City’s Annual Budget represents a total financing plan for all City operations and must be analyzed by its component parts to make any meaningful adjustments. Unlike a private holding company, the City cannot remove cash from any one enterprise operation to help support general tax funded operations. Although there is certainly some financial interdependence between the funds, such as internal service fund charges to allocate common costs, each fund represented in the budget must stand alone. When analyzing City operations, it is appropriate to look at the budget, department by department. However, when reviewing long range financial policies, it is best to look at the fund structure rather than the department structure. 5 Scenarios
The scenarios are modeled to provide insight into future financial capacity so that strategies can be developed to achieve long-term sustainability considering the City’s service objectives and financial challenges. They are intended to provide a high-level overview of the City’s financial situation utilizing various assumptions. Three scenarios are being presented; each scenario is described as follows:
1. Scenario 1 - Baseline Flat Growth- This scenario accounts for extrapolated trend fiscal growth using the actuals for the last five fiscal years and projecting the expected revenues for the future years. Flat fiscal growth is including the following assumptions:
Revenues:
• Sales Tax. The average increase is based on consultant projections for industry expectations for the first two years then on the historical average of change in Sales Tax receipts. • Property Tax, for the first increase based on consultant projections based on known property valuation changes, anticipated transfers of ownership and Prop 8 recaptures for the first three years and then increased using the historical average of change for each account. • Other Tax. This is primarily cannabis business tax. These revenues show a declining trend during fiscal years 2022/23 and 2023/24 as it normalized from the significant growth during covid. Overall, the revenues were forecast to increase gradually each year based on historical average revenue receipts.
• All other revenues are projected using conservative positive trend growth by each account from the adopted budget for 2023/24 forward. This does include some imbedded one-time revenues from private development fees (primarily building permit fees) as well as off-setting revenues that could partially fund staff costs (primarily Community Development and Engineering). • Transfers in and Other Sources. This includes contributions and are budgeted flat as they are based on (1) Transfers in for reimbursements to the General Fund from Prop 72 for police services, and (2) donations made to City operations primarily for Special Events and Recreation Scholarships.
Expenses: The baseline model includes a utilizes the 2023/24 adopted operating budget and applies the following assumptions for the Baseline Scenario:
• Salaries & Benefits (Including Health Insurance)– Changes were projected using projected trend amounts for each account and include expenses for wages, overtime, fringe benefits, insurance, and taxes, and CalPERS payments. The average increase per year for wages and salaries, insurance, and CalPERS is approximately 4.9%, 5.1% and 3.1% respectively. This estimate assumes no significant increases in Full Time Equivalent positions or changes in MOU’s. See more detail about the calculation for the pension expense for the unfunded liability below. • PERS Unfunded Liabilities. Based on the latest amortization schedules using PERS final report in September 2023. A presentation for the Pension Liability Review will be scheduled to further discuss policy compliance and estimates for CalPERS for strategic planning. • Debt Service. Includes new debt service for Streets and Pension Lease Debt. • Other Operating Expenses. to conservatively project expenditures, we have used trendline assumptions based on the last 5 years of actuals and the current budget year. On average the expenses increase at a rate of 4.5% per year.
6 2. Scenario 2 – Baseline with Hotel Development - This scenario uses the base Scenario 1 and then adds the possible impact of the Hotel Development being completed in 2024-25 and opening in FY 2025-26.
The hotel revenue model is based on consultant projections based on like hotels in the region. This scenario adds the following:
• Property Tax. Additional $44,000 in Property Tax revenues beginning in FY 2025-26 then increasing consistent with the base model thereafter.
• Sales Tax. Incremental increase of 1% beginning in FY 2024-25 then increasing consistent with the base model thereafter.
• Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT). Receipts initiating based on 50% occupancy rate in the first year, 60% occupancy in the second year, and then overall revenue (a function of price and occupancy) increasing by 5% per year for each subsequent year. It is important to note the following regarding Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) assumptions:
o The approved TOT is set at 10% per City Code 3.12.030. o The proposed hotel is designed with 153 rooms.
• No assumptions around increases in expenses. Though it is reasonable to assume a new contract service for TOT audits would be initiated, the City does not have a cost estimate for these services, but it is not expected to be significantly material to this evaluation.
3. Scenario 3a – Recession in 2026/27 & Scenario 3b Recession – This scenario starts from the base assumptions in scenario one then estimates what an impact of a recession like that of the great recession of 2008 would be on the City’s General Fund. Assumptions for recession include the following:
Revenues:
• Sales Tax and Rents are considered initial revenue streams that are directly impacted by recession due to the pull back of consumers non-essential spending. Decrease of 35% in Fiscal Year 2026-27 followed by a 5% decrease in the year following Fiscal Year 2027-28, zero growth for the two fiscal years Fiscal Years 2028-29, and then back to regular growth of 2.0% thereafter. • Property Tax is a lagging recession point, so it still shows growth for fiscal year 2026/27, however in fiscal Year 2027/28 there is applied a 25% decrease followed by the 15% decrease in the subsequent, no growth for two more years and then average growth of 3.2% thereafter. • Other Tax, Licenses and Franchises, Investment Earnings, and Other Revenue could show immediate declines due to Cannabis Industry shrinkage and closures of business thus reducing of business licenses tax. This was estimated at a 15% decline in Fiscal Year 2026-27 followed by a 25% decrease in the year following Fiscal Year 2027-28, zero growth for the two fiscal years Fiscal Years 2028-29, and then back to regular growth of 1.0% thereafter.
Expenses: The model shows the maintenance of most expenses used in the baseline as if we were going to try and continue operations, but with the decline in revenues. Some immediate changes that were assumed include:
• Capital Outlay, which is primarily used to fund the vehicle replacement fund would cut in half the contributions for fiscal year 2026-27 and then completely discontinue providing contributions in Fiscal Years 2028 through 2034.
• Other Expenses are cut in half with immediate cuts to travel and training and other additional expenditures for fiscal year 2026-27 and then reduced further in 2027-28 after which activities will continue to increase based on cost and need to reinstitute training.
Risks to the Forecast
7 Every projection is a combination of assumptions based on analysis of historical data, use of actual data when available (e.g., labor contracts, CalPERS rates), and educated assumptions based on an analysis of available information. In addition to the built-in uncertainty of projections, the City continues to experience uncertainty in the future of revenue and major expenses that would impact the City’s budget due partly to the structure of State municipal finance laws. The major risks to these projections include:
1. Volatile Economy - The City’s revenues are impacted by regional and statewide economic conditions. The City’s three largest General Fund revenue sources are sales, property, and other taxes, with sales taxes representing approximately 50% of all revenue. These revenue streams, and sales tax are sensitive to the broader economic trends and more specifically, consumer spending and development/construction.
2. State Takeaways and Borrowing - During times of economic downturn, the State of California has previously shifted, borrowed, or took money from cities to cover its own budget shortfalls. To protect local governments, Proposition 1A was passed in 2004 to protect local revenues from being transferred away from the state. However, Proposition 1A can be suspended if the Governor declares a fiscal necessity and two-thirds of the Legislature concur. The first emergency suspension of Proposition 1A was passed by the Legislature as part of the 2009-10 budget package. Under this provision the State borrowed 8% of the amount of property tax revenue and was required to repay the obligations plus interest by 2013. After this initial repayment, the legislature may consider only one additional borrowing within a ten-year period. While it cannot be predicted if the State will once again borrow money from local governments, it is a possibility.
3. Insurance Premiums - The City is a participant in the California Intergovernmental Risk Authority (CIRA) which is a self-insured joint powers authority established in 1976 to manage insurance claims, benefit programs, and risk management needs of fifty-two cities or special districts. Continued costs related to both health insurance premiums as well as general liability and workers compensation liability are expected to continue to increase, many in double digits. Just as local governments revenues are subject to impacts from the regional and national economic conditions, the city’s insurance premiums are additionally impacted.
4. Unfunded Liability Pension Costs - Rather than provide retirement benefits through Social Security, the City instead provides pension benefits to its employees and retirees through six pension plans with CalPERS. As of 06/30/2022 (the most recent official information available), the plans had a total accrued liability (the amount necessary, as of the valuation date, to fund all earned pension benefits for current employees, retirees, and beneficiaries now and into the future) of approximately $43.2 million, held approximately $36.4 million in assets, and its plans were underfunded by approximately $6.8 million.
In January 2021, the City issued a pension obligation refunding loan and a street improvements financing loan (UAL Refunding Loans) that allowed it to pay down the UAL by $6,000,000. After the UAL refunding, the City programmed smaller UAL payments to CalPERS, as well as payments on the two loans. Since the loan interest rates are significantly lower than the interest rate charged by CalPERS, the refunding allowed the City to generate approximately $2.25 million in cash flow savings. 8 After the refunding, in July of 2022 CalPERS reported a significant loss of 7.5% leading to a funding shortfall of 14.3% (sum of the 7.5% investment loss and 6.8% discount rate). This shortfall translated to approximately $4.7 million in new UAL for the City. The projections in this forecast are based on the draft 2023 Pension Liability Review generated by Ridgeline Municipal Strategies which did consider the amortization of these losses. However, it does not assume application of no negative amortization schedules or future losses/gains for the current fiscal year forward. Staff are working to prepare a new report for the City Council with the Pension Liability Update.
5. City Operational Changes and Related Staffing Adjustments – The City is continuing to focus on providing the best of class service to our community. This service is provided by three separate bargaining units; the CEA, the Cotati Police Officers Association (CPOA), and the Cotati Police Management Association (CPMA), as well as the Non-Represented group and a single employment agreement with the City manager. Each of these groups negotiate their contracts for a set period that is approved by the City Council. Changes in labor were estimated based on cost trends and did not specifically include projections for staffing FTE increases or new significant contract changes.
6. No Major New One-Time Expenses - The expenditure forecast does not include any provisions for unexpected one-time expenses, such as changes in legislation, unexpected events, acts of nature, or other such factors that could require the City to expend a significant amount of General Fund resources. Also, as mentioned previously, the LRFF does not account for transfers or capital projects, due to the variability of these, but focuses on on-going operational costs/revenues. 9 GENERAL FUND FORECAST
Below are the financial summaries of the three scenarios outlined. The following tables and charts show the General Fund operating fund balance for each of the scenarios over a 10-year period. Full-size detailed tables with the revenues and expenses by classification are included in Appendices A-C Scenario 1 - Appendix A: Baseline – Flat Growth
Scenario 2 – Appendix B: Baseline with Hotel
Fiscal Year
2023/24
Fiscal Year
2024/25
Fiscal Year
2025/26
Fiscal Year
2026/27
Fiscal Year
2027/28
Fiscal Year
2028/29
Fiscal Year
2029/30
Fiscal Year
2030/31
Fiscal Year
2031/32
Fiscal Year
2032/33
Fiscal Year
2033/34
Base Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 10,276,387 6,571,652 7,781,777 9,412,355 11,437,910 11,577,242 11,304,333 10,700,715 9,726,439 8,421,553 6,734,411 2 3 TOTAL REVENUES 10,274,952 11,169,503 11,583,559 11,973,368 12,356,507 12,772,188 13,207,831 13,626,842 14,050,023 14,447,296 14,869,063 4 TOTAL EXPENSES (9,266,451) (9,680,509) (9,680,509) (9,680,509) (11,954,425) (12,786,662) (13,556,962) (14,350,298) (15,107,479) (15,890,149) (16,670,639) 5 ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) 1,008,501 1,488,994 1,903,050 2,292,859 402,082 (14,474) (349,131) (723,455) (1,057,456) (1,442,853) (1,801,576) 6 7 ENDING OPERATING FUND BAL. 11,284,888 8,060,646 9,684,826 11,705,214 11,839,992 11,562,768 10,955,202 9,977,259 8,668,983 6,978,700 4,932,835 8 9 REQUIRED RESERVE (2,316,613) (2,420,127) (2,420,127) (2,420,127) (2,988,606) (3,196,666) (3,389,241) (3,587,574) (3,776,870) (3,972,537) (4,167,660) 10 11
ENDING OPERATING FUND BAL. AFTER RESERVES BEFORE NON- OPERATING EXPENSES 8,968,275 5,640,519 7,264,699 9,285,086 8,851,385 8,366,102 7,565,962 6,389,685 4,892,113 3,006,163 765,175 12 13
NET NON-OPERATING REVENUES &
EXPENSE
(4,713,236) (278,870) (272,471) (267,303) (262,750) (258,435) (254,487) (250,820) (247,430) (244,289) (234,426) 14 15
ENDING FUND BAL. AFTER
RESERVES & NON-OPERATING
REVENUES AND EXPENSES
4,255,039 5,361,649 6,992,228 9,017,783 8,588,635 8,107,667 7,311,474 6,138,865 4,644,684 2,761,874 530,749 16 Excess Reserve as a % of Operating Exp. 46% 55% 72% 93% 72% 63% 54% 43% 31% 17% 3% SCENARIO 1 - GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - BASELINE - FLAT GROWTH GENERAL FUND TEN YEAR FORECAST 2023/24-2033/34
Fiscal Year
2023/24
Fiscal Year
2024/25
Fiscal Year
2025/26
Fiscal Year
2026/27
Fiscal Year
2027/28
Fiscal Year
2028/29
Fiscal Year
2029/30
Fiscal Year
2030/31
Fiscal Year
2031/32
Fiscal Year
2032/33
Fiscal Year
2033/34
Base Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 10,276,387 6,616,652 6,932,225 8,615,272 10,021,715 11,059,762 11,723,373 12,108,225 12,175,194 12,981,265 12,770,138 2 3 TOTAL REVENUES 10,274,952 10,274,952 12,334,503 12,811,351 13,255,222 13,708,708 14,196,301 14,668,087 10,274,952 15,140,641 15,140,641 4 TOTAL EXPENSES (9,221,451) (9,680,509) (10,378,986) (11,137,604) (11,954,425) (12,786,662) (13,556,962) (14,350,298) (9,221,451) (15,107,479) (15,890,149) 5 ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) 1,053,501 594,443 1,955,518 1,673,747 1,300,797 922,046 639,339 317,789 1,053,501 33,162 (749,508) 6 7
ENDING OPERATING FUND
BALANCE
11,329,888 7,211,095 8,887,743 10,289,018 11,322,512 11,981,807 12,362,712 12,426,014 13,228,695 13,014,427 12,020,629 8 9 REQUIRED RESERVE (2,305,363) (2,420,127) (2,594,746) (2,784,401) (2,988,606) (3,196,666) (3,389,241) (3,587,574) (2,305,363) (3,776,870) (3,972,537) 10 11
ENDING OPERATING FUND
BALANCE AFTER RESERVES BEFORE
CAPITAL
9,024,525 4,790,968 6,292,997 7,504,617 8,333,905 8,785,142 8,973,471 8,838,439 10,923,332 9,237,557 8,048,092 12 13
NET NON-OPERATING REVENUES &
EXPENSE
(4,713,236) (278,870) (272,471) (267,303) (262,750) (258,435) (254,487) (250,820) (247,430) (244,289) (234,426) 14 15
ENDING FUND BAL. AFTER
RESERVES & NON-OPERATING
REVENUES AND EXPENSES
4,311,289 4,512,098 6,020,526 7,237,314 8,071,155 8,526,707 8,718,984 8,587,619 10,675,902 8,993,268 7,813,666 16 Excess Reserve as a % of Operating Exp. 47% 47% 58% 65% 68% 67% 64% 60% 116% 60% 49% SCENARIO 2 - GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - BASELINE -WITH HOTEL GENERAL FUND TEN YEAR FORECAST 2022/23-2032/33 10 Scenario 3 – Appendix C: Recession in 2026/27
Fiscal Year
2023/24
Fiscal Year
2024/25
Fiscal Year
2025/26
Fiscal Year
2026/27
Fiscal Year
2027/28
Fiscal Year
2028/29
Fiscal Year
2029/30
Fiscal Year
2030/31
Fiscal Year
2031/32
Fiscal Year
2032/33
Fiscal Year
2033/34
Base Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 1 BEGINNING FUND BALANCE 10,276,387 6,616,652 8,450,506 9,744,994 8,064,195 4,725,266 532,556 (4,179,306) (9,333,169) (14,839,997) (20,724,018) 2 3 TOTAL REVENUES 10,274,952 11,793,232 11,945,945 9,284,174 8,059,079 7,795,405 7,806,186 7,920,691 8,086,419 8,255,980 8,429,470 4 TOTAL EXPENSES (9,221,451) (9,680,509) (10,378,986) (10,697,669) (11,135,257) (11,729,681) (12,263,561) (12,823,733) (13,345,817) (13,895,712) (14,451,807) 5 ANNUAL SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) 1,053,501 2,112,723 1,566,959 (1,413,496) (3,076,178) (3,934,275) (4,457,375) (4,903,043) (5,259,399) (5,639,732) (6,022,337) 6 7 ENDING OPERATING FUND BAL. 11,329,888 8,729,375 10,017,465 8,331,498 4,988,017 790,991 (3,924,819) (9,082,349) (14,592,567) (20,479,729) (26,746,356) 8 9 REQUIRED RESERVE (2,305,363) (2,420,127) (2,594,746) (2,674,417) (2,783,814) (2,932,420) (3,065,890) (3,205,933) (3,336,454) (3,473,928) (3,612,952) 10 11
ENDING OPERATING FUND BAL. AFTER RESERVES BEFORE NON- OPERATING EXPENSES 9,024,525 6,309,248 7,422,719 5,657,081 2,204,202 (2,141,429) (6,990,709) (12,288,282) (17,929,022) (23,953,657) (30,359,307) 12 13
NET NON-OPERATING REVENUES &
EXPENSE
(4,713,236) (278,870) (272,471) (267,303) (262,750) (258,435) (254,487) (250,820) (247,430) (244,289) (234,426) 14 15
ENDING FUND BAL. AFTER
RESERVES & NON-OPERATING
REVENUES AND EXPENSES
4,311,289 6,030,378 7,150,248 5,389,777 1,941,452 (2,399,864) (7,245,196) (12,539,102) (18,176,451) (24,197,946) (30,593,733) 16 Excess Reserve as a % of Operating Exp. 47% 62% 69% 50% 17% -20% -59% -98% -136% -174% -212% SCENARIO 3 - GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - Recession 2026/27 GENERAL FUND TEN YEAR FORECAST 2023/24-2033/34 11 REVENUES HISTORICAL TRENDS
Chart 1 provides a summary of the total General Fund Actual Revenues from 2000 to 2022 and budget revenues for fiscal year 2022-23.
CHART 1 – General Fund Revenue FY 2000-2001 to FY 2022-23 Chart 2 provides a summary of the top two General Fund revenue source types from 2000 to 2022.
CHART 2 – Revenue Trends FY 2000-2024
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2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Property Tax Sales Tax Bradley Burns Sales Tax Measure A/G/S Top Revenue Historical Trends
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APPENDIX - DEAIL SCENARIO REPORTS
Included within this appendix are the details for the Revenues and Expenses by Function for the General Fund, as summarized within the scenario summaries under General Fund Forecast. This provides in-depth information on the exact change by fiscal year based on each function as outlined in the assumptions.
Appendix Table A. Baseline – Flat Growth
Budget
Row Labels Sum of 2019 Sum of 2020 Sum of 2021 Sum of 2022 Sum of 2023 Sum of 2024 Sum of 2025 Sum of 2026 Sum of 2027 Sum of 2028 Sum of 2029 Sum of 2030 Sum of 2031 Sum of 2032 Sum of 2033 Sum of 2034 Revenue
601 PROPERTY TAX 1,734,281 1,813,280 1,773,535 1,873,508 1,967,056 2,131,758 2,175,119 2,259,073 2,349,354 2,430,844 2,517,242 2,602,251 2,688,269 2,774,166 2,860,709 2,946,715 603 SALES TAX 5,109,212 5,001,563 5,837,741 6,230,425 6,024,055 6,084,000 6,531,894 6,764,564 6,992,990 7,220,184 7,472,364 7,712,543 7,954,127 8,197,007 8,415,500 8,653,271 604 OTHER TAX 416,685 509,572 668,954 723,670 678,562 652,300 711,818 756,096 796,123 835,846 874,907 913,848 955,142 996,533 1,034,837 1,075,156 606 LICENSE & FRANCHISE 515,546 546,010 623,563 686,807 718,840 556,500 662,359 685,073 701,177 719,081 736,260 753,438 771,171 789,268 807,403 825,569 607 RENTS 96,344 101,474 71,712 80,114 102,463 78,000 94,271 97,590 102,528 105,558 109,706 113,838 117,959 122,074 126,187 130,297 608 REVENUE - OTHER AGENCIES 303,488 189,454 200,751 107,218 151,897 207,150 176,096 164,804 156,077 147,995 140,609 133,215 125,948 118,758 111,617 104,507 609 OTHER REVENUE 89,461 86,628 237,173 316,772 2,303,881 45,058 195,398 207,559 215,194 222,391 228,881 263,839 278,042 292,830 307,717 324,452 620 CHARGES FOR SVS 396,277 434,938 1,035,074 573,294 602,780 463,186 526,013 547,336 549,994 556,685 566,341 581,382 596,282 612,810 629,561 648,151 660 CONTRIBUTIONS 17,813 16,986 10,643 19,184 22,928 12,000 18,345 19,061 22,032 24,058 26,111 27,872 30,168 31,482 33,320 35,154 680 SPECIAL REVENUES 58,823 42,149 32,237 80,885 86,388 45,000 78,191 82,403 87,901 93,864 99,766 105,606 109,734 115,094 120,446 125,791 Revenue Total 8,737,930 8,742,054 10,491,382 10,691,875 12,658,849 10,274,952 11,169,503 11,583,559 11,973,368 12,356,507 12,772,188 13,207,831 13,626,842 14,050,023 14,447,296 14,869,063 Operating Expense
700 WAGES & SALARIES (2,101,593) (2,401,745) (2,676,683) (2,616,594) (2,827,383) (3,538,015) (3,552,687) (3,800,631) (4,050,135) (4,300,260) (4,552,074) (4,804,798) (5,058,128) (5,311,229) (5,565,653) (5,820,630) 701 INCENTIVES (151,047) (59,885) (69,258) (95,476) (124,019) (126,550) (148,171) (164,982) (182,348) (200,200) (217,928) (235,907) (252,551) (270,008) (287,458) (304,971) 702 FRINGE BENEFITS (26,395) (23,215) (23,741) (22,435) (24,477) (26,620) (28,080) (28,894) (29,980) (31,118) (32,283) (33,464) (34,582) (35,742) (36,953) (38,133) 703 LEAVE (387,901) (393,354) (379,118) (456,352) (520,498) (457,450) (512,514) (543,996) (579,224) (616,000) (654,243) (694,068) (735,649) (779,216) (822,436) (866,008) 704 DEDUCTIONS (1,057,320) (901,273) (1,028,266) (6,086,622) (803,913) (853,700) (929,302) (998,638) (1,068,344) (1,138,267) (1,266,074) (1,316,724) (1,361,327) (1,405,787) (1,450,384) (1,495,094) 705 INSURANCE (382,442) (418,427) (446,918) (475,754) (463,828) (512,250) (523,116) (546,221) (569,201) (592,872) (617,101) (640,518) (664,837) (689,659) (714,957) (740,205) 706 TAX (37,826) (42,144) (46,748) (47,897) (52,955) (61,120) (62,981) (67,057) (70,926) (75,268) (79,395) (83,524) (87,723) (91,880) (96,039) (100,200) 707 PAYOUTS (419,961) (47,380) (95,899) (127,743) (147,303) (107,770) (102,987) (71,809) (59,814) (59,496) (59,271) (59,105) (58,967) (58,846) (58,729) (58,634) 720 MISCELLANEOUS PAYROLL - (411) (335) (896) - - (102) (81) (24) (39) (15) (3) - - - - 800 MATERIAL & SUPPLY (64,362) (109,997) (77,248) (81,625) (101,585) (76,762) (82,816) (82,380) (81,078) (79,803) (80,542) (82,037) (83,564) (85,106) (87,033) (88,863) 801 CONTRACT SERVICES (901,987) (843,450) (972,430) (1,210,533) (1,358,546) (1,745,397) (1,885,865) (2,066,713) (2,276,630) (2,479,973) (2,685,427) (2,887,650) (3,088,083) (3,298,597) (3,508,639) (3,716,077) 802 LEGAL (83,806) (88,869) (155,975) (81,420) (84,837) (111,064) (112,525) (123,764) (133,785) (144,748) (155,832) (166,900) (177,981) (189,106) (200,233) (211,361) 803 UTILITIES (238,791) (261,389) (297,152) (245,669) (335,068) (350,597) (356,161) (386,305) (420,318) (455,642) (491,148) (526,571) (562,081) (597,466) (633,031) (668,684) 805 REPAIR & MAINTENANCE (96,745) (236,618) (233,947) (115,371) (113,920) (53,400) (84,752) (74,212) (64,983) (96,170) (81,086) (76,690) (101,585) (75,116) (72,748) (70,429) 806 OTHER EXPENSES (588,600) (599,062) (765,725) (698,540) (912,728) (1,103,096) (1,191,200) (1,316,143) (1,446,017) (1,578,796) (1,709,009) (1,843,541) (1,976,990) (2,110,984) (2,245,738) (2,379,851) 807 FISCAL FEES (57,064) (45,603) (41,854) (56,960) (51,251) (58,480) (59,908) (61,233) (62,733) (64,236) (66,312) (68,308) (70,276) (72,253) (74,200) (76,135) 808 DEBT SERVICE (3,878) (6,736) (11,855) (9,194) (908) (8,180) (5,288) (5,191) (5,030) (5,137) (5,470) (5,804) (6,136) (6,465) (6,795) (7,124) 809 CAPITAL OUTLAY - (14,160) (16,646) (55,456) (31,550) - (15,776) (14,124) (11,517) (12,432) (10,963) (10,271) (10,106) (10,157) (10,213) (10,274) 811 MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSE (17,818) (27,033) (27,927) (78,176) (4,790) (31,000) (26,279) (26,612) (25,517) (23,967) (22,488) (21,079) (19,732) (19,862) (18,909) (17,965) Operating Expense Total (6,617,536) (6,520,750) (7,367,724) (12,562,712) (7,959,558) (9,221,451) (9,680,509) (10,378,986) (11,137,604) (11,954,425) (12,786,662) (13,556,962) (14,350,298) (15,107,479) (15,890,149) (16,670,639) Non-Operating Revenues & Expenses
650 INVESTMENT EARNINGS 126,272 103,797 56,654 19,717 187,176 166,000 196,018 202,281 207,200 211,729 215,899 219,739 223,277 226,541 229,556 239,296 670 TRANSFR IN & OTHR SOURCES 250,000 339,236 219,431 5,934,212 391,922 202,000 180,112 180,248 180,497 180,521 180,667 180,774 180,903 181,029 181,154 181,278 808 DEBT SERVICE - - - (62,062) 50,440 (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) 810 TRANS OUT & OTHER USES (984,431) (2,630,461) (1,567,550) (4,144,478) (4,052,652) (4,426,236) - - - - - - - - - - Non-Operating Revenues & Expenses Total (608,160) (2,187,428) (1,291,465) 1,747,389 (3,423,115) (4,713,236) (278,870) (272,471) (267,303) (262,750) (258,435) (254,487) (250,820) (247,430) (244,289) (234,426) Grand Total 1,512,235 33,876 1,832,193 (123,448) 1,276,176 (3,659,735) 1,210,125 932,102 568,460 139,332 (272,909) (603,618) (974,275) (1,304,886) (1,687,143) (2,036,002) Audited Actual Strategic Forecast Long-Range Forecast
Appendix Table B – Baseline with Hotel
Budget
Row Labels Sum of 2019 Sum of 2020 Sum of 2021 Sum of 2022 Sum of 2023 Sum of 2024 Sum of 2025 Sum of 2026 Sum of 2027 Sum of 2028 Sum of 2029 Sum of 2030 Sum of 2031 Sum of 2032 Sum of 2033 Sum of 2034 Revenue
601 PROPERTY TAX 1,734,281 1,813,280 1,773,535 1,873,508 1,967,056 2,131,758 2,175,119 2,303,073 2,373,450 2,459,096 2,549,613 2,638,715 2,728,811 2,818,777 2,909,381 2,999,443 603 SALES TAX 5,109,212 5,001,563 5,837,741 6,230,425 6,024,055 6,084,000 6,597,173 6,857,213 7,069,723 7,316,635 7,563,802 7,811,201 8,058,813 8,302,198 8,548,335 8,794,447 604 OTHER TAX 416,685 509,572 668,954 723,670 678,562 652,300 711,818 1,370,391 1,533,277 1,609,858 1,687,620 1,767,196 1,851,157 1,937,349 2,022,694 2,112,406 606 LICENSE & FRANCHISE 515,546 546,010 623,563 686,807 718,840 556,500 662,359 685,073 701,177 719,081 736,260 753,438 771,171 789,268 807,403 825,569 607 RENTS 96,344 101,474 71,712 80,114 102,463 78,000 94,271 97,590 102,528 105,558 109,706 113,838 117,959 122,074 126,187 130,297 608 REVENUE - OTHER AGENCIES 303,488 189,454 200,751 107,218 151,897 207,150 176,096 164,804 156,077 147,995 140,609 133,215 125,948 118,758 111,617 104,507 609 OTHER REVENUE 89,461 86,628 237,173 316,772 2,303,881 45,058 195,398 207,559 215,194 222,391 228,881 263,839 278,042 292,830 307,717 324,452 620 CHARGES FOR SVS 396,277 434,938 1,035,074 573,294 602,780 463,186 883,857 547,336 549,994 556,685 566,341 581,382 596,282 612,810 629,561 648,151 660 CONTRIBUTIONS 17,813 16,986 10,643 19,184 22,928 12,000 18,345 19,061 22,032 24,058 26,111 27,872 30,168 31,482 33,320 35,154 680 SPECIAL REVENUES 58,823 42,149 32,237 80,885 86,388 45,000 78,191 82,403 87,901 93,864 99,766 105,606 109,734 115,094 120,446 125,791 Revenue Total 8,737,930 8,742,054 10,491,382 10,691,875 12,658,849 10,274,952 11,592,626 12,334,503 12,811,351 13,255,222 13,708,708 14,196,301 14,668,087 15,140,641 15,616,659 16,100,218 Operating Expense
700 WAGES & SALARIES (2,101,593) (2,401,745) (2,676,683) (2,616,594) (2,827,383) (3,538,015) (3,552,687) (3,800,631) (4,050,135) (4,300,260) (4,552,074) (4,804,798) (5,058,128) (5,311,229) (5,565,653) (5,820,630) 701 INCENTIVES (151,047) (59,885) (69,258) (95,476) (124,019) (126,550) (148,171) (164,982) (182,348) (200,200) (217,928) (235,907) (252,551) (270,008) (287,458) (304,971) 702 FRINGE BENEFITS (26,395) (23,215) (23,741) (22,435) (24,477) (26,620) (28,080) (28,894) (29,980) (31,118) (32,283) (33,464) (34,582) (35,742) (36,953) (38,133) 703 LEAVE (387,901) (393,354) (379,118) (456,352) (520,498) (457,450) (512,514) (543,996) (579,224) (616,000) (654,243) (694,068) (735,649) (779,216) (822,436) (866,008) 704 DEDUCTIONS (1,057,320) (901,273) (1,028,266) (6,086,622) (803,913) (853,700) (929,302) (998,638) (1,068,344) (1,138,267) (1,266,074) (1,316,724) (1,361,327) (1,405,787) (1,450,384) (1,495,094) 705 INSURANCE (382,442) (418,427) (446,918) (475,754) (463,828) (512,250) (523,116) (546,221) (569,201) (592,872) (617,101) (640,518) (664,837) (689,659) (714,957) (740,205) 706 TAX (37,826) (42,144) (46,748) (47,897) (52,955) (61,120) (62,981) (67,057) (70,926) (75,268) (79,395) (83,524) (87,723) (91,880) (96,039) (100,200) 707 PAYOUTS (419,961) (47,380) (95,899) (127,743) (147,303) (107,770) (102,987) (71,809) (59,814) (59,496) (59,271) (59,105) (58,967) (58,846) (58,729) (58,634) 720 MISCELLANEOUS PAYROLL - (411) (335) (896) - - (102) (81) (24) (39) (15) (3) - - - - 800 MATERIAL & SUPPLY (64,362) (109,997) (77,248) (81,625) (101,585) (76,762) (82,816) (82,380) (81,078) (79,803) (80,542) (82,037) (83,564) (85,106) (87,033) (88,863) 801 CONTRACT SERVICES (901,987) (843,450) (972,430) (1,210,533) (1,358,546) (1,745,397) (1,885,865) (2,066,713) (2,276,630) (2,479,973) (2,685,427) (2,887,650) (3,088,083) (3,298,597) (3,508,639) (3,716,077) 802 LEGAL (83,806) (88,869) (155,975) (81,420) (84,837) (111,064) (112,525) (123,764) (133,785) (144,748) (155,832) (166,900) (177,981) (189,106) (200,233) (211,361) 803 UTILITIES (238,791) (261,389) (297,152) (245,669) (335,068) (350,597) (356,161) (386,305) (420,318) (455,642) (491,148) (526,571) (562,081) (597,466) (633,031) (668,684) 805 REPAIR & MAINTENANCE (96,745) (236,618) (233,947) (115,371) (113,920) (53,400) (84,752) (74,212) (64,983) (96,170) (81,086) (76,690) (101,585) (75,116) (72,748) (70,429) 806 OTHER EXPENSES (588,600) (599,062) (765,725) (698,540) (912,728) (1,103,096) (1,191,200) (1,316,143) (1,446,017) (1,578,796) (1,709,009) (1,843,541) (1,976,990) (2,110,984) (2,245,738) (2,379,851) 807 FISCAL FEES (57,064) (45,603) (41,854) (56,960) (51,251) (58,480) (59,908) (61,233) (62,733) (64,236) (66,312) (68,308) (70,276) (72,253) (74,200) (76,135) 808 DEBT SERVICE (3,878) (6,736) (11,855) (9,194) (908) (8,180) (5,288) (5,191) (5,030) (5,137) (5,470) (5,804) (6,136) (6,465) (6,795) (7,124) 809 CAPITAL OUTLAY - (14,160) (16,646) (55,456) (31,550) - (15,776) (14,124) (11,517) (12,432) (10,963) (10,271) (10,106) (10,157) (10,213) (10,274) 811 MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSE (17,818) (27,033) (27,927) (78,176) (4,790) (31,000) (26,279) (26,612) (25,517) (23,967) (22,488) (21,079) (19,732) (19,862) (18,909) (17,965) Operating Expense Total (6,617,536) (6,520,750) (7,367,724) (12,562,712) (7,959,558) (9,221,451) (9,680,509) (10,378,986) (11,137,604) (11,954,425) (12,786,662) (13,556,962) (14,350,298) (15,107,479) (15,890,149) (16,670,639) Non-Operating Revenues & Expenses
650 INVESTMENT EARNINGS 126,272 103,797 56,654 19,717 187,176 600,000 246,018 252,281 257,200 261,729 265,899 269,739 273,277 276,541 279,556 289,296 670 TRANSFR IN & OTHR SOURCES 250,000 339,236 219,431 5,934,212 391,922 202,000 215,112 215,248 215,497 215,521 215,667 215,774 215,903 216,029 216,154 216,278 808 DEBT SERVICE - - - (62,062) 50,440 (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) 810 TRANS OUT & OTHER USES (984,431) (2,630,461) (1,567,550) (4,144,478) (4,052,652) (4,426,236) - - - - - - - - - - Non-Operating Revenues & Expenses Total (608,160) (2,187,428) (1,291,465) 1,747,389 (3,423,115) (4,279,236) (193,870) (187,471) (182,303) (177,750) (173,435) (169,487) (165,820) (162,430) (159,289) (149,426) Grand Total 1,512,235 33,876 1,832,193 (123,448) 1,276,176 (3,225,735) 1,718,247 1,768,047 1,491,443 1,123,047 748,611 469,852 151,969 (129,268) (432,779) (719,847) Audited Actual Strategic Forecast Long-Range Forecast 15 C – Recession in 2026/27
Budget
Row Labels Sum of 2019 Sum of 2020 Sum of 2021 Sum of 2022 Sum of 2023 Sum of 2024 Sum of 2025 Sum of 2026 Sum of 2027 Sum of 2028 Sum of 2029 Sum of 2030 Sum of 2031 Sum of 2032 Sum of 2033 Sum of 2034 Revenue
601 PROPERTY TAX 1,734,281 1,813,280 1,773,535 1,873,508 1,967,056 2,131,758 2,175,119 2,303,073 2,402,105 1,801,579 1,531,342 1,531,342 1,531,342 1,580,345 1,630,916 1,683,105 603 SALES TAX 5,109,212 5,001,563 5,837,741 6,230,425 6,024,055 6,084,000 6,597,173 6,847,890 4,451,128 4,228,572 4,228,572 4,228,572 4,313,143 4,399,406 4,487,394 4,577,142 604 OTHER TAX 416,685 509,572 668,954 723,670 678,562 652,300 1,270,268 991,156 842,482 631,862 631,862 631,862 638,180 644,562 651,008 657,518 606 LICENSE & FRANCHISE 515,546 546,010 623,563 686,807 718,840 556,500 662,359 685,073 582,312 436,734 436,734 436,734 441,101 445,512 449,967 454,467 607 RENTS 96,344 101,474 71,712 80,114 102,463 78,000 94,271 97,590 63,434 60,262 60,262 60,262 61,467 62,697 63,951 65,230 608 REVENUE - OTHER AGENCIES 303,488 189,454 200,751 107,218 151,897 207,150 176,096 164,804 168,100 171,462 174,891 178,389 181,957 185,596 189,308 193,094 609 OTHER REVENUE 89,461 86,628 237,173 316,772 2,303,881 45,058 195,398 207,559 176,425 132,319 132,319 136,357 137,721 139,098 140,489 141,894 620 CHARGES FOR SVS 396,277 434,938 1,035,074 573,294 602,780 463,186 526,013 547,336 492,603 487,676 487,676 487,676 497,430 507,379 517,526 527,877 660 CONTRIBUTIONS 17,813 16,986 10,643 19,184 22,928 12,000 18,345 19,061 19,061 19,061 19,061 19,061 19,061 19,061 19,061 19,061 680 SPECIAL REVENUES 58,823 42,149 32,237 80,885 86,388 45,000 78,191 82,403 86,523 89,551 92,686 95,930 99,287 102,762 106,359 110,082 Revenue Total 8,737,930 8,742,054 10,491,382 10,691,875 12,658,849 10,274,952 11,793,232 11,945,945 9,284,174 8,059,079 7,795,405 7,806,186 7,920,691 8,086,419 8,255,980 8,429,470 Operating Expense 700 WAGES & SALARIES (2,101,593) (2,401,745) (2,676,683) (2,616,594) (2,827,383) (3,538,015) (3,552,687) (3,800,631) (4,044,123) (4,288,400) (4,534,593) (4,781,996) (5,030,331) (5,278,787) (5,528,941) (5,780,046) 701 INCENTIVES (151,047) (59,885) (69,258) (95,476) (124,019) (126,550) (148,171) (164,982) (165,893) (166,803) (167,714) (168,625) (169,536) (170,448) (171,359) (172,270) 702 FRINGE BENEFITS (26,395) (23,215) (23,741) (22,435) (24,477) (26,620) (28,080) (28,894) (30,339) (31,856) (33,448) (35,121) (36,877) (38,721) (40,657) (42,689) 703 LEAVE (387,901) (393,354) (379,118) (456,352) (520,498) (457,450) (512,514) (543,996) (588,499) (611,780) (636,093) (661,136) (686,777) (713,258) (740,512) (768,501) 704 DEDUCTIONS (1,057,320) (901,273) (1,028,266) (6,086,622) (803,913) (853,700) (929,302) (998,638) (1,026,935) (1,055,252) (1,140,992) (1,149,739) (1,151,891) (1,154,044) (1,156,198) (1,158,356) 705 INSURANCE (382,442) (418,427) (446,918) (475,754) (463,828) (512,250) (523,116) (546,221) (584,066) (613,549) (644,381) (676,758) (710,675) (746,241) (783,538) (822,653) 706 TAX (37,826) (42,144) (46,748) (47,897) (52,955) (61,120) (62,981) (67,057) (67,265) (67,485) (67,705) (67,925) (68,144) (68,363) (68,583) (68,802) 707 PAYOUTS (419,961) (47,380) (95,899) (127,743) (147,303) (107,770) (102,987) (71,809) (74,875) (78,004) (81,200) (83,419) (85,656) (87,910) (90,185) (92,482) 720 MISCELLANEOUS PAYROLL - (411) (335) (896) - - (102) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) 800 MATERIAL & SUPPLY (64,362) (109,997) (77,248) (81,625) (101,585) (76,762) (82,816) (82,380) (86,490) (89,576) (92,765) (96,055) (99,450) (102,954) (106,570) (110,303) 801 CONTRACT SERVICES (901,987) (843,450) (972,430) (1,210,533) (1,358,546) (1,745,397) (1,885,865) (2,066,713) (2,179,255) (2,268,095) (2,360,744) (2,453,772) (2,548,674) (2,652,061) (2,754,378) (2,859,331) 802 LEGAL (83,806) (88,869) (155,975) (81,420) (84,837) (111,064) (112,525) (123,764) (131,836) (139,920) (148,109) (156,354) (164,711) (173,138) (181,640) (190,217) 803 UTILITIES (238,791) (261,389) (297,152) (245,669) (335,068) (350,597) (356,161) (386,305) (416,011) (442,870) (469,972) (497,362) (525,053) (553,038) (581,333) (609,948) 805 REPAIR & MAINTENANCE (96,745) (236,618) (233,947) (115,371) (113,920) (53,400) (84,752) (74,212) (66,009) (97,429) (82,703) (78,694) (103,399) (77,236) (75,225) (73,316) 806 OTHER EXPENSES (588,600) (599,062) (765,725) (698,540) (912,728) (1,103,096) (1,191,200) (1,316,143) (1,133,548) (1,084,562) (1,166,326) (1,250,298) (1,332,763) (1,416,207) (1,499,443) (1,581,877) 807 FISCAL FEES (57,064) (45,603) (41,854) (56,960) (51,251) (58,480) (59,908) (61,233) (63,543) (65,495) (67,757) (70,096) (72,513) (75,010) (77,588) (80,251) 808 DEBT SERVICE (3,878) (6,736) (11,855) (9,194) (908) (8,180) (5,288) (5,191) (5,200) (5,179) (5,162) (5,148) (5,138) (5,133) (5,131) (5,134) 809 CAPITAL OUTLAY - (14,160) (16,646) (55,456) (31,550) - (15,776) (14,124) (5,758) - - - - - - - 811 MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSE (17,818) (27,033) (27,927) (78,176) (4,790) (31,000) (26,279) (26,612) (27,942) (28,920) (29,932) (30,980) (32,064) (33,187) (34,348) (35,550) Operating Expense Total (6,617,536) (6,520,750) (7,367,724) (12,562,712) (7,959,558) (9,221,451) (9,680,509) (10,378,986) (10,697,669) (11,135,257) (11,729,681) (12,263,561) (12,823,733) (13,345,817) (13,895,712) (14,451,807) Non-Operating Revenues & Expenses
650 INVESTMENT EARNINGS 126,272 103,797 56,654 19,717 187,176 600,000 246,018 252,281 126,140 113,526 102,174 91,956 92,876 93,805 94,743 95,690 670 TRANSFR IN & OTHR SOURCES 250,000 339,236 219,431 5,934,212 391,922 202,000 215,112 215,248 215,248 215,248 215,248 215,248 215,248 215,248 215,248 215,248 808 DEBT SERVICE - - - (62,062) 50,440 (655,000) (655,000) (655,000) (687,750) (711,821) (736,735) (762,521) (789,209) (816,831) (845,420) (875,010) 810 TRANS OUT & OTHER USES (984,431) (2,630,461) (1,567,550) (4,144,478) (4,052,652) (4,426,236) - - - - - - - - - - Non-Operating Revenues & Expenses Total (608,160) (2,187,428) (1,291,465) 1,747,389 (3,423,115) (4,279,236) (193,870) (187,471) (346,361) (383,047) (419,313) (455,316) (481,085) (507,778) (535,429) (564,072) Grand Total 1,512,235 33,876 1,832,193 (123,448) 1,276,176 (3,225,735) 1,918,854 1,379,488 (1,759,857) (3,459,225) (4,353,588) (4,912,691) (5,384,127) (5,767,177) (6,175,162) (6,586,409) Actual Strategic Forecast Long-Range Forecast
16