1470 Maria Lane, Ste. 315 - Walnut Creek, CA 84586
Discussion on Bond Measure for
Road Repairs
by
Urban Futures, Inc.
January 10, 2024
Town of Fairfax
2 Meeting your financial challenges and saving you money Town of Fairfax Introduction
UFI is a full-service financial advisory firm that
serves California
The leading municipal advisor since 2011
based on number of financings
Our staff has over 50 years experience
providing honest advice and the highest level
of service
Relevant experience includes:
Strong References
#1 Municipal Advisor
Independence
50 Years Experience
Leader in New Bond Programs
Albany USD
City of Albany
City of Alameda
Bolinas-Stinson ESD
Chico RPD
Coalinga-Huron RPD
Fair Oaks RPD
Fulton El Camino RPD
Kentfield ESD
Lagunitas ESD
Mill Valley ESD
Miller Creek ESD
Novato USD
Oakland USD
City of Oakland
Orangevale RPD
Pleasant Hill RPD
Reed ESD
San Rafael City Schools
South Francisco USD
City of San Francisco
Tamalpais CSD
3 Town of Fairfax
There was a lot of support for CA school bonds in 2022
2022 Bond Program Successes
June 2022 UFI G.O. Bond Successes
District County Amount
(1)
Fremont HSD Santa Clara $275.00
Hillsborough SD San Mateo $140.00
Mill Valley SD Marin $194.00
Muroc USD San Bernardino $21.00
San Rafael ESD Marin $152.00
San Rafael HSD Marin $216.00
Westmorland ESD Imperial $3.75
Westmorland ESD Imperial $3.75
(1) In Millions
Source: Urban Futures, Inc.
November 2022 UFI G.O. Bond Successes
District County Amount (1)
Buellton ESD Santa Barbara $8.80
Calistoga USD Napa $41.00
Carmichael RPD Sacramento $31.90
Coalinga-Huron JUSD Fresno $39.20
El Centro ESD "C" Imperial $17.00
El Centro ESD "E" Imperial $18.00
Fairfield-Suisun USD Solano $249.60
Farmersville USD Tulare $8.60
Gridley USD Butte $16.30
Guadalupe ESD "V" Santa Barbara $8.50
Guadalupe ESD "W" Santa Barbara $8.50
Kenwood ESD Sonoma $18.00
La Honda Pescadero USD San Mateo $15.00
Mupu ESD "J" Ventura $0.80
Mupu ESD "K" Ventura $0.80
Orange Center ESD Fresno $6.00
Rio ESD Ventura $72.00
San Luis Coastal USD San Luis Obispo $349.00
Santa Rosa ESD Sonoma $125.00
Santa Rosa HSD Sonoma $398.00
Sequoia HSD San Mateo $591.50
South San Francisco USD San Mateo $436.00
Sunol Glen USD Alameda $10.90
Ventura USD Ventura $434.50
Wheatland HSD “P” Yuba $16.00
Walnut Creek ESD Contra Costa $134.00
Statewide, there were 120 school bond
elections with 87 successes, or 72.5%
Urban Futures worked on 34 successful
bond measures in June and November
2022; over 40% of all successful bond
measures
38% of successful measures received
over two-thirds voter support
3 Very strong support for general obligation bonds in 2022 4 Town can generate $5.5 million with a 0.25% Sales Tax Measure Town of Fairfax Sales Tax Measure
The Town of Fairfax’s current sales tax rate is 9.00%, and the cap for Marin County is currently
9.25%, which means that Fairfax has remaining capacity of 0.25%. In 2016, Measure C extended the 0.50% sales tax and added another 0.25% for 10 years. In 2022, the Town received approximately $1 million in Measure C revenues; using that as a proxy, the Town could generate $355,000 for 0.25% of additional sales tax. If voters approve to extend the current 0.75% sales tax without a sunset date and an additional
0.25% sales tax measure with no sunset, the Town could issue 30-year Lease Revenue Bonds but would only generate an estimated $5.5 million in proceeds. 5 Town’s tax base has grown by 31% since 2019 Town of Fairfax Town Bond & Assessed Value History
Town of Fairfax Historical Assessed Value
Fiscal Year Ending Total Value % Change
2019 $1,520,759,239
2020 $1,604,492,916 5.51%
2021 $1,682,412,066 4.86%
2022 $1,754,373,238 4.28%
2023 $1,870,263,072 6.61%
2024 $1,989,705,378 6.39%
Average 5.53%
Source: California Municipal Statistics
The Town’s 2023-24 assessed value is approximately $2.0 billion; six-year average assessed value growth rate is 5.53%
Fairfax voters passed a $6.8
million bond measure in 1999
at more than two-thirds
approval
The Town last refinanced
bonds from the 1999 election
in 2016
The 2008 General Obligation
Bonds matured on 8/1/2024;
the 2016 Bonds and the 2012
Bonds mature on 8/1/2027
2023-24 tax rate is $22.50 per
$100,000 of assessed value
6 Town can generate between $13.7 million and $36.5 million Town of Fairfax General Obligation Bond Proceeds
With projected annual assessed value growth of 3.50%, the Town of Fairfax can generate up to $36.5 million
At more aggressive growth rates or a longer bond program, the Town could generate up to $42.0 million
Depending on tax rate selected and assessed value assumptions, the Town can generate significant proceeds
Town of Fairfax Bond Proceeds at Varying Tax Rates (1)
Tax Rate per Series A Series B Series C Total Bond
$100,000 of AV 2025 2027 2029 Proceeds
$22.50 $4,600,000 $4,400,000 $4,700,000 $13,700,000
$30.00 $6,100,000 $5,900,000 $6,300,000 $18,300,000
$45.00 $9,200,000 $8,800,000 $9,400,000 $27,400,000
$60.00 $12,200,000 $11,800,000 $12,500,000 $36,500,000
(1) Assumes AV growth of 3.50% and 30-year bond terms; Preliminary – Subject to change Source: Urban Futures, Inc.
7 Town of Fairfax
18-24
7% 25-34
9%
35-44
14%
45-54
18%
55-64
19%
65+
33%
Voter Demographics
District Voter Demographics
Source: Political Data
Voter Age
Demographics
Voter demographics are favorable to bond programs
The Town has 5,863 total voters
Majority of voters are Democrats (72%)
92% of voters vote-by-mail
52% of voters are ages 55 and older
Town Voter Demographics
Total Percent
Republicans 285 5%
Democrats 4,240 72%
Other 1,338 23%
VBM Voters 5,368 92%
8 Turnout can have a significant bearing on success Town of Fairfax Voter Turnout
Historical voter turnout has
ranged from a low of 48% in
June of 2018 to a high of
87% in November 2020
Voter turnout varies
considerably by election
date and type of election
and must be considered as
different voters show up for
different elections
November 2024 turnout is
estimated to be 90%
56%
73%
48%
72% 68%
87%
50%
74%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Recent Town Voter Turnouts
Source: Political Data
9 Town of Fairfax
Task Responsible Party Date
Update needs list/master plan Town Ongoing
Town Council Meeting - Approve “exploring” feasibility of a Bond Town January Prepare and Conduct Survey Consultant February
Town Council Meeting – Survey Results Presentation Consultant March Initiate public information program, speaking with elected officials, stakeholders, staff, community service groups to discuss proposed tax measure
Town March-June
Prepare Resolution for Calling Election, including Ballot Language, and Project List to reflect community feedback
Consultant/
Attorneys April
Finalize Capital and Financing Plan based on Community Outreach Consultant June Town Council Meeting – Adopt Resolution Calling Election Town June-July Deadline to Submit Resolution Calling Election Town August Prepare and Submit Argument in Favor of Measure Consultant/Town August Form campaign committee and conduct campaign kick-off meeting Campaign Committee August
Run Campaign Campaign
Committee
August–
November
Election Day November 5, 2024
Following these steps is key to the Town’s success
November 2024 Timeline
Regulatory Disclosure
Disclosure of Conflicts of Interest and Legal or Disciplinary Events. Pursuant to Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (“MSRB”) Rule G-42, on Duties of Non-Solicitor Municipal Advisors, Municipal Advisors are required to make certain written disclosures to clients and potential clients which include, amongst other things, Conflicts of Interest and any Legal or Disciplinary events of Urban Futures, Inc. (“UFI”) and its associated persons.
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It should be noted that other forms of compensation (i.e. hourly or fixed fee based) may also present a potential conflict of interest regarding UFI’s ability to provide advice regarding a municipal security transaction. These other potential conflicts of interest will not impair UFI’s ability to render unbiased and competent advice or to fulfill its fiduciary duty to the Issuer.
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