TOWN COUNCIL MEETING
STAFF REPORT
1 AGENDA ITEM #12
MEETING DATE June 5, 2024
PREPARED FOR Mayor and Town Council
PREPARED BY Heather Abrams, Town Manager
SUBJECT Receive Scientific Survey Results Regarding a Possible Bond Measure for Road Repairs and Direct Staff as Appropriate
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends that the Council receive a presentation of scientific survey results from FM3 and direct staff as appropriate.
BACKGROUND
On May 8, 2024 the Council received the first presentation on the survey results. A second presentation was planned for June 5, 2024, for additional discussion.
Previous discussions:
The Council and staff have received complaints regarding the state of road repair within the Town. The Town is ranked lowest in Marin County on the Pavement Condition Index (PCI), a rating from 0 to 100 of the severity and extent of distresses observed on a pavement surface. The Council has received several presentations from staff and expert consultants regarding the current condition of roads and the limitations of the current budget for repairs within Fairfax, including on February 1, 2023, March 1, 2023, January 10, 2024, January 24, 2024.
The following is a summary of the information discussed:
Financial situation:
In 1999, the Council placed Measure K on the ballot to help fund road and infrastructure repairs of up to $6.83 million, which was expended on Fairfax infrastructure nearly two decades ago. At that time, more than two-thirds of Fairfax voters approved, and bonds were issued in 2000, 2002, and 2006. The Town currently has a rating of AA+, which allows the Town to access favorable financing rates.
Construction costs throughout California continue to escalate and Fairfax’s road condition continues to decline. Unfortunately, the cost to complete the deferred maintenance and repairs needed outstrips the Town’s current resources. Continuing pay-as-you-go repairs and maintenance will not be sufficient to maintain Fairfax’s current low PCI rating, and improving Fairfax’s PCI will require even more resources. Allocating additional resources is essential to improve Fairfax’s PCI. Extending the existing property tax rate or increasing the property tax rate would provide needed additional funds to complete road projects and stabilize costs in the long term. This is because regular maintenance is far less expensive than emergency repairs and full replacement following deferred maintenance.
Progress thus far:
Since 2022, Public Works Director Umbertis has successfully completed several large projects, including Scenic and Porteous repaving, retaining wall repairs at 145 Canyon, and one-time sidewalk improvements in town. The Council approved a project charter to help the Town work with the County of Marin to apply for grants to repair Bolinas Road, which appears to be gaining traction with federal 2 funders. Grant applications typically require matching funds of 10% to 25%, and bond proceeds would facilitate applying to larger grants than Fairfax could normally access.
Several commentors have mentioned that Larkspur used to have the lowest PCI rating in Marin; Larkspur now has the among the highest PCI rating in Marin, and the lowest PCI is now held by Fairfax. Larkspur was able to make this dramatic upturn in its PCI ranking by increasing the general sales tax from which the Larkspur Council allocated a portion of the revenue for the repair of its roads.
On March 6, 2024, the Council established a Survey Subcommittee of Vice Mayor Blash and Council Member Hellman and approved the use of scientific survey firm FM3 to conduct a survey of voters in Fairfax. During that meeting, Council approved the agreement with FM3 for a scientific survey and the postcard for a total of $32,690 from the Public Works General Fund 01-51- 821. The Subcommittee and staff met with FM3 to review the survey and postcard design. Postcards began arriving to Fairfax voters on April 15, 2024, and FM3 followed up with telephone calls and emails to voters that did not respond.
As a reminder, the following steps in the process have been discussed. The Council is being asked to receive the survey results; a separate action would be needed to place a bond measure on the ballot for November 2024.
Steps in the Process:
• Council Direction: On January 10, 2024, the Council discussed and directed staff to pursue a scientific survey on the possibility of a voter approved bond for road repairs. • Voter Surveying/Polling: On March 6, 2024, the Council approved the surveying/polling firm that designed and implemented a poll of residents on bond options and collected data on the priorities and willingness to support a tax measure. The Council also appointed a Subcommittee of two Council Members to review the proposed survey questions before the scientific survey began.
Surveying/polling was conducted in the latter half of April 2024. • Project Planning: At the January 24, 2024, Council Meeting, Public Works staff and consultants presented the draft 5-year plan for paving, based on current resources. If directed by the Council, Public Works staff can develop an updated draft of the 5-year paving plan, reflecting the use of potential bond proceeds. This revised plan would detail which projects could be completed with the additional resources.
• Council Approval: If the Council wishes to move forward, in July the Council would need to approve placing a measure on the November 2024 ballot. If the Council decides not to act this year, the next probable opportunity is in 2026.
• Voter Campaign: A group of residents would be needed to run the campaign for the measure, as Town staff are only allowed to provide educational information (not campaign materials). • Voter Approval: If voters approve the measure, staff will bring financing documents and road projects back to the Council for review and approval.
• Project Implementation: Once financing is secured, design will begin, and project timelines will be brought before the Council.
DISCUSSION
Unfortunately, significant road issues are commonplace in Fairfax and current pay-as-you-go funds will not be sufficient to keep the deferred maintenance from becoming more costly over time. A bond could be used, like a mortgage, to allow the Town to make significant improvements. The Town has applied with the County for large Federal grants, which require approximately 20% matching funds that could be a challenge for the Town without a bond measure.
On May 8, 2024, the first item on the Town’s Budget Workshop Special Meeting was an item to receive scientific survey results regarding a possible bond measure for road repairs and direct staff as 3 appropriate. The item was on that agenda because a bond for road repairs could shape budget planning.
The survey firm, FM3, presented the attached presentation and answered questions. The Council requested that the presentation be given again on June 5, 2024, with the expectation that the Council could direct staff to place the item on the November ballot or not. If the Council directs staff to proceed with a bond ballot measure, a resolution to place it on the ballot can be brought on the consent calendar at the July 17, 2024 Council Meeting.
FISCAL IMPACT
There is no fiscal impact associated with receiving this presentation. If the Council directs staff to place a $36 million bond measure on the November ballot the assessment would be $60 per $100,000 of assessed value, or if it was an $18 million bond, the assessment would be $30 per $100,000 of assessed value. Originally in 1999, Measure K was estimated to have a max tax rate of $58 per $100,000 of assessed valuation (AV) and the current rate is $22.50 per $100,000 AV. The current median single family residential AV is $650,000 in Fairfax, which equates to an annual cost of $146.25. The Measure K assessment has been decreasing over time and will end in 2027.
ATTACHMENT
Presentation slides
Voter Attitudes Toward the Proposed
Fairfax Bond Measure Survey
Key Findings of a Survey Conducted April 15-22, 2024
220-7155
2 Dates April 15-22, 2024
Survey Type Dual-mode Voter Survey
Research Population Voters in the Town of Fairfax
Total Interviews 649
Margin of Sampling Error ±5.7% at the 95% Confidence Level Contact Methods
Data Collection Modes
(Note: Not All Results Will Sum to 100% Due to Rounding) Telephone
Interviews
Online
Interviews
Survey Methodology
Postcard
Invitations
Text
Invitations
Telephone
Calls
Email
Invitations
3 Community Context
4 Voters are mixed on the
direction of Fairfax.
Q1.
Would you say that things in Fairfax are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right
Direction
46%
Wrong
Track
39%
Don't
Know
15%
5 Three in five have a favorable opinion of Town staff but voters are more closely divided on views of the Council.
Q2.
I am now going to read the names of some groups and organizations. Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that group or organization. If you have never heard of the group or organization I mention, or if you do not have enough information to have an opinion, you can tell me that too.
19%
13%
43%
34%
15%
21% 20%
16%
11%
Fairfax Town staff and
administration
The Fairfax Town Council
Very Fav. Smwt. Fav. Smwt. Unfav. Very Unfav. Never Heard of Heard of/No Opin./Don't Know Total Fav.
Total
Unfav.
61% 19%
47% 41%
6 The biggest issue voters would like to see addressed
related to road repairs and infrastructure.
Q6.
In a few words, what is the top issue you would like to see Town government address in Fairfax? 24%
17%
14%
13%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
Road Repairs/Infrastructure
Housing/Affordable Housing
Rental Laws/Mandates/Rent Control
Homelessness
Crime/Public Safety
Traffic/Congestion
Politicians/Government Corruption
Pedestrian/Bicycle Safety
High Taxes
Inflation/Cost of Living
Overpopulation/Growth/Development
Education/Schools
Fire Safety/Wildfires/Preparedness
Budget Mismanagement/Spending
More/better public transportation
(Open-ended)
7 Infrastructure improvements.
The Council should get back to
basics and forgo social
experiments like the rent
control ordinances.
Forgotten street upgrades and
repairs, drainage, sidewalks,
increase and empower public
works to enforce encroachment
regulations.
The homeless issue behind the baseball field.
Affordable housing but not a huge building. Traffic
is terrible in Fairfax so it needs to be somewhere
not downtown though unless it was sensibly and
sustainably built.
Verbatim Comments Describing Top Issues
Q6. In a few words, what is the top issue you would like to see Town government address in Fairfax? Speeding cars in
neighborhoods. Tripping hazards for
pedestrians.
The Town needs to spend within its means.
the Town needs to cover the basics like road
maintenance before considering optional
programs like rent control that there is no
money to pay for.
Help people ensure they have
affordable home insurance so
we can stay here.
8 The risk of wildfire, condition of local roads, and cost of housing are the top problems in the community.
Q7.
36%
32%
29%
25%
29%
24%
23%
19%
18%
14%
11%
15%
11%
9%
7%
33%
29%
31%
33%
24%
24%
25%
28%
27%
28%
29%
23%
23%
21%
17%
23%
31%
26%
29%
32%
30%
23%
32%
39%
37%
39%
33%
33%
32%
29%
6%
6%
12%
10%
14%
20%
18%
19%
9%
21%
18%
20%
30%
38%
43%
11%
6%
9%
Risk of wildfire
The condition of local roads
The cost of housing
The cost of living
Homelessness
The amount you pay in local taxes
Waste and inefficiency in local government
The condition of local sidewalks
The condition of local infrastructure
Traffic congestion
The risk of flooding
Deteriorating public facilities
Bike safety infrastructure
Parking
Crime
Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. Smwt. Ser. Prob. Not a Prob. Don't Know Ext./Very Ser. Prob.
69%
61%
60%
58%
53%
47%
47%
47%
45%
41%
40%
38%
34%
30%
24%
I’m going to read you a list of things some people say may be problems facing Fairfax.
Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem for Fairfax residents. 9 A majority see a need for funding for Town services,
but fewer than one in five see a great need.
Q8.
In your personal opinion, do you think there is a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds to provide the level of town services that Fairfax residents need and want? 17%
39%
17%
16%
11%
Great need
Some need
A little need
No real need
Don't know
A Little/
No Real Need
33%
Great/
Some Need
56%
10 Three in five see a need for funding to address
Fairfax’s infrastructure.
Q9.
And do you think there is a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds to address the condition of Fairfax’s infrastructure? 23%
37%
19%
13%
8%
Great need
Some need
A little need
No real need
Don't know
A Little/
No Real Need
32%
Great/
Some Need
60%
11 Introducing the Measure
12 Three in five voters say they are likely to vote
“yes” on the proposed measure.
Q3. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose this measure? To repair roads/infrastructure; fix potholes; repave streets; repair retaining walls/bridges; address flooding of roads/buildings; improve bike/pedestrian circulation, safe routes to schools, disabled access; and qualify for federal matching funds, shall the Town of Fairfax’s measure authorizing $36 million in bonds with a duration up to 30 years from the time of each issuance, at legal interest rates, levying approximately $60/$100,000 of assessed value, raising about $2.2 million annually, requiring audits/citizen oversight, be adopted? 28%
26%
7%
3%
10%
22%
4%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
Yes
61%
Total
No
35%
13 Q4a.
Supporters are motivated by the need to repair
roads and infrastructure.
In a few words of your own, why would you vote YES on this measure? 61%
32%
11%
8%
1%
2%
Repair roads/potholes/Infrastructure
Essential city improvements/Needed
Bond funding transparency
Upgrades public safety/Road safety
Other
Don't Know/Unsure
(Open-ended; Asked of Yes Voters Only, n=396)
14 Roads need to be fixed but I like
the citizen oversight.
Safe streets and sidewalks
make any town more "user
friendly". As do adequate
parking in the proper places in
commercial areas.
Sidewalk and streets are in
serious disrepair in Fairfax,
but not sure why we have to
pay additional taxes to get
this basic service completed.
Q4a. In a few words of your own, why would you vote YES on this measure? The neighborhood streets are in
terrible condition. The amount
of bike traffic warrants
solutions.
Infrastructure is
important.
Roads need to
be kept up!
We need to repair the potholes on the
street and fix buildings at schools that need
to be repaired.
Rising construction costs and deteriorating roads
in town. Funding is important to continue repairs
and maintain infrastructure.
Verbatim Comments in Favor of the Measure
15 In a few words of your own, why would you vote NO on this measure? Opponents worry about financial
mismanagement and costs.
Q4b.
(Open-ended; Asked of No Voters Only, n=229)
24%
19%
19%
17%
16%
13%
9%
6%
5%
4%
2%
1%
2%
They will mismanage the proposed funding/waste the funding/ more important issues
They have mismanaged previous funding/current funding/nothing to show for it/ stop spending
Costs/too expensive/can't afford it/time scale too long/limited income/ I'm a senior citizen
Use existing funding/it's already been paid for/have enough funding No more property taxes/hurts homeowners and residents
No more taxes/taxed enough/current taxes are too high
Don't trust the town council/incompetent/won't listen to the people Too much spending on consultants/lawyers
Need more information/measure is too vague
No more bonds/interest rates are too high
Other
Don't Know/Unsure
Refused/No Comment
16 Q4b. In a few words of your own, why would you vote NO on this measure? The town already has very high
property taxes that it does not use
wisely.
Towns keep taxing the residents for
expenses rather than trying to adjust
the funds they have. We are not an
unlimited pot for everything.
We already pay well
over $15,000 annually
in property taxes, for
our house here in
Fairfax. That should
be enough to fix the
streets.
As a homeowner,
we already pay
way too much in
property taxes and
nothing gets done
to fix the
infrastructure. Our
roads are falling
apart and nothing
gets done yet our
property taxes
continue to rise.
It would cost me $300-$400 more a year
on my taxes. I would rather see an
increased sales tax.
Town council has
squandered our funds
and I don’t trust them. We already voted for and had
money for infrastructure in our
town. The money was not used
appropriately.
Verbatim Comments in Opposition
to the Measure
17 Voters are slightly more inclined to support a
$18 million bond.
Q3 & Q5. Would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose this measure? 33%
24%
7%
3%
9%
16%
7%
28%
26%
7%
3%
10%
22%
4%
Initial Vote $18 Million Bond
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
No
35%
Total
Yes
61%
Total
No
29%
Total
Yes
64%
Suppose that instead of authorizing a $36 million bond levying $60 per $100,000 of assessed value, the measure to repair and maintain Fairfax roads and infrastructure authorized $18 million in bonds and levied $30 per $100,000 of assessed value. 18 Accountability measures, safe evacuation, and
fixing potholes are voters’ top priorities.
Q10. Not Part of Split Sample
The proposed bond measure has not yet been finalized. I am going to read you a list of ways in which the funds generated by the bond measure could be spent, and also provisions that could be included.
Please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is to you personally:
is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? 56%
44%
34%
38%
34%
26%
25%
27%
33%
42%
35%
36%
41%
42%
12%
16%
15%
23%
21%
17%
24%
5%
8%
14%
7%
5%
Requiring all funds be used locally
Providing safe evacuation routes in case of fire,
flooding, or a natural disaster
Qualifying for state matching funds
Fixing potholes
Maintaining open spaces and natural areas
Providing safe routes to school for children
Repairing aging retaining walls and bridges
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt. Don't Know Ext./Very Impt.
83%
78%
76%
73%
70%
67%
67%
19 Three in five say it is important to repave streets
and maintain infrastructure.
Q10. The proposed bond measure has not yet been finalized. I am going to read you a list of ways in which the funds generated by the bond measure could be spent, and also provisions that could be included. Please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is to you personally: is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? *Split Sample 30%
24%
19%
23%
23%
25%
25%
18%
34%
37%
38%
33%
33%
31%
30%
36%
29%
31%
21%
29%
28%
32%
26%
28%
6%
5%
14%
12%
14%
12%
13%
15%
9%
6%
Repaving streets
Maintaining Fairfax infrastructure
*Updating the fire station to increase
firefighter staffing
*Maintaining the aging fire station
Improving bicycle and pedestrian safety
Repairing local sidewalks
Requiring an independent citizen
oversight committee
Improving accessibility for people with
disabilities on streets and in town facilities
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt. Don't Know Ext./Very Impt.
64%
61%
57%
56%
56%
55%
55%
54%
20 Voters assign less importance to repairing the
Pavilion and Level 3 EV chargers.
Q10. The proposed bond measure has not yet been finalized. I am going to read you a list of ways in which the funds generated by the bond measure could be spent, and also provisions that could be included. Please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is to you personally: is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? *Split Sample 12%
20%
14%
9%
8%
37%
28%
30%
33%
18%
32%
26%
31%
31%
35%
14%
21%
24%
24%
35%
6%
5%
*Maintaining the Fairfax Pavilion
Providing housing for those experiencing
homelessness
Reducing traffic congestion
*Repairing the Fairfax Pavilion
Providing Level 3 electric vehicle chargers
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt. Don't Know Ext./Very Impt.
49%
48%
44%
42%
26%
21 Messaging
22 As voters learn more about the measure, their
views remain highly stable.
Q3, Q12 & Q14. Would you vote yes in favor of it, or no to oppose this measure? 28%
34%
32%
26%
21%
20%
7%
7%
5%
10%
9%
12%
22%
20%
22%
6%
6%
Initial Vote
Vote After Positives
Vote After All Messages
Def. Yes Prob. Yes Und., Lean Yes Und., Lean No Prob. No Def. No Undecided Total Yes
Total
No
61% 35%
61% 34%
57% 37%
23 Messages in Favor of the Measure
Q11. I am going to read you some statements made by supporters of this ballot measure. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to support this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample Ranked by Very Convincing
(MATCHING FUNDS) This measure will allow Fairfax to qualify for up to $10 million in additional federal grant funding to repair major streets like Bolinas Road. If we do not pass this measure, the grant funding will go to other communities. (DEFERRED MAINTENANCE) According to independent experts, Fairfax has a $36 million backlog of road and infrastructure repairs. At the current spending levels road conditions will continue to deteriorate, additional resources are needed; the longer roads go without repair, the more expensive it will be to fix the conditions of our roads. This measure will make Fairfax roads safer and improve our quality of life. ^(ACCOUNTABILITY/LOCAL CONTROL) This measure includes strict accountability provisions, such as public spending reports and independent citizen oversight. This funding cannot be taken by state government or other agencies, and all funds must be used only in Fairfax.
^(STREET CONDITIONS) Fairfax's street conditions are among the worst in Marin and many of our roads are rated "poor." We need this measure to make essential repairs to our local streets and keep drivers, bikers, and pedestrians safe. ^(POTHOLES) Fairfax's potholes are dangerous; they routinely cause expensive damage to residents' cars and are a hazard for cyclists. Fixing our roads will prevent accidents and make our roads safer for everyone.
(WALL PROPERTY) The Town is considering purchasing the Wall Property. This measure could provide funding to ensure that the open space and natural areas on the property are well-maintained and accessible to the community, similar to Sky Ranch. 24 Messages in Favor of the Measure (Continued)
Q11. I am going to read you some statements made by supporters of this ballot measure. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to support this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample Ranked by Very Convincing
^(FIRE PROTECTION) Fairfax's fire station is outdated and hasn't been updated since the 1970s. This measure could update the fire station and provide the space for a bigger fire crew to ensure Fairfax residents are protected in emergencies, including natural disasters and wildfires.
^(SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL) Unfortunately, many intersections near our local schools are dangerous. This measure will build bike lanes and improve crosswalks near schools to ensure that students can safely walk or bike to their local schools. (FAIRFAX PAVILION) The Fairfax Pavilion is a beloved landmark for our community, but it is aging and badly needs to be retrofitted. The Pavilion has decaying walls, a leaky roof, and an outdated foundation. This measure could provide funding to restore the Pavilion and make it a fun gathering space for years to come.
(FINANCIAL SECURITY) The Town of Fairfax has an excellent financial track record. The town has maintained consistent stable financial reserves and an AA+ credit rating. The Town's last infrastructure bond was 25 years ago and it will be expiring in the next three years, meaning that taxpayers will no longer pay it. Fairfax residents can trust the Town to use the funds from this measure as promised and efficiently. (PAST SUCCESS) The Town of Fairfax has a track record of good financial and project management. In the last year, Fairfax Town government was able to responsibly use some of its financial reserves to repave two road segments and repair sidewalks, proving they can deliver infrastructure projects on time and on budget. Taxpayers can trust the Town to use the funds from this measure as promised and efficiently. 25 Messages on matching funds and the cost of
deferred maintenance resonate strongest.
Q11. I am going to read you some statements made by supporters of this ballot measure. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to support this measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample 44%
41%
38%
38%
34%
33%
31%
28%
27%
23%
20%
29%
36%
38%
33%
41%
34%
37%
35%
40%
38%
26%
73%
77%
75%
72%
75%
67%
68%
63%
67%
61%
46%
Matching Funds
Deferred Maintenance
^Accountability/Local Control
^Street Conditions
^Potholes
Wall Property
^Fire Protection
^Safe Routes to School
Fairfax pavilion
Financial Security
Past Success
Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing
26 Conclusions
27 Conclusions
• Fairfax voters are divided in their view of Town government. 61% view Town staff and administration favorably and 19% view them unfavorably. 47% view the Town Council favorably and 41% view them unfavorably. • While majorities see a need for funding for Town services and infrastructure, few see a “great need.”
• In that context, a majority of voters support a $36 million bond measure to support roads and infrastructure, but the support falls short of the two-thirds threshold required for success at the ballot.
• Support for an $18 million bond is greater, but still falls short of two-thirds. • Voters place the greatest priority on using funds locally, safe evacuation, fixing potholes, and qualifying for matching funds.
• Consistent with these priorities, the strongest messages in favor of the bond describe matching funds, the cost of deferred maintenance, and road repairs. • Overall, the proposed bond measure does not appear viable at this time; additional public education on the need for funding could increase support over time.
For more information,
contact:
Lucia Del Puppo
[email protected]
Denny Han
[email protected]
1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384