1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 | 303 415 1400 | ascendanalytics.com
City of Fontana
CCA Formation & Operation
Confidential Proposal from Ascend Analytics
Submission Date: March 28, 2024
Point of Contact: Paul Eory | [email protected]
Confidential Proposal for City of Fontana
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1 1. CONTENTS
1. Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 1
2. Cover Letter .......................................................................................................................................... 2
3. Scope of Services & Price ..................................................................................................................... 4 Task 1: Initial Feasibility Study/Financial Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4
4. Key Personnel ....................................................................................................................................... 5
5. Experience .......................................................................................................................................... 11
6. The Ascend Solution ........................................................................................................................... 14
Primary Business Contact Person Authorized Official
Ascend Analytics
Headquarters
1877 Broadway
Suite 706
Boulder, CO 80302
303 415 1400
Paul Eory
Director of Resource Planning
1877 Broadway
Suite 706
Boulder, CO 80302
720-689-7723
Gary Dorris PhD
CEO
1877 Broadway
Suite 706
Boulder, CO 80302
303 415 1400
Confidential Proposal for City of Fontana
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2 2. COVER LETTER
To Whom it May Concern,
This response for technical consulting services details Ascend’s approach and qualifications to analyze the City of Fontana’s desire to form and operate a Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) entity for the electric service of its residents. Ascend is well known in California for our analytical and decision-making capabilities to support power supply procurement activities. Founded in 2002, Ascend possesses the expertise and advanced analytic tools to offer a one-stop-shop for planning and portfolio risk management services, including:
• Portfolio Planning and Development
• Contract Valuation and Procurement
• Trading, Position Management and Reporting
• Enterprise Risk Management Policy
• Risk Management Committee Support
Ascend will support the City of Fontana with a dedicated support team able to leverage our integrated suite of software including PowerSIMM Portfolio Manager and PowerSIMM Planner. Ascend is excited to build a long - lasting relationship with the City of Fontana, providing the analytic infrastructure as a service and expert advisory consulting that will help the City of Fontana succeed in a competitive market and effectively manage its critical business operations.
Ascend’s offerings carry with them the following competitive advantages:
Proven and Widely Used by Community Choice Aggregators
Ascend deeply understands the unique business requirements of Community Choice Aggregators in an increasingly risky energy market and customer demands for more local control and clean energy procurement.
Ascend currently provides software and/or services to several Community Choice Aggregators (CCA’s) in California (see our client list here), and are actively forming a CCA in ISO-NE. An example of the technical assessment we provided can be found on this public site: cpcnh_technical_assessment_by_ascend_analytics_23jan2023.pdf (durham.nh.us). Our CCA clients most commonly use Ascend’s software and services for hedging and Power Purchase Agreement valuation, budgeting, and risk management. For example, every year we run one of the nation’s largest clean energy procurements for Clean Power Alliance (Los Angeles County) using automation and advanced analytics to provide robust PPA valuations in a matter of weeks. We develop integrated resource plans as well as support CCA’s in their everyday risk hedging activities. When reviewing portfolio risk management capabilities of CCAs, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) found Ascend’s risk management analytics be “robust” and “consistent with best practices”.
Market Intelligence and Expertise in a Rapidly Changing Energy Landscape Ascend brings deep expertise in the CAISO energy markets and we are widely trusted to provide relevant and timely insights to utilities, CCAs, developers , and financiers. Ascend’s Market Intelligence offering provides forward projection prices for CAISO trading hubs and locational marginal prices (LMPs) driven by market Confidential Proposal for City of Fontana
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3 fundamentals and weather-driven variability. Short - to medium-term price forecasts are informed by observed market trading data (forward contracts), which we maintain in a database of all major pricing nodes. Long -term prices are driven by Ascend’s long -term fundamental price and volatility forecasts, pre -loaded and updated quarterly. Ascend also forecasts the sub-hourly market and basis price risks at 15- and 5-minute timesteps for sub- hourly valuation because real-time prices are becoming an increasingly strategic source of value (and risk) in the CAISO market and are a key component in understanding renewable and storage economics.
Leading Portfolio Risk Management Capabilities
Ascend’s analytics driven consulting fulfills the City of Fontana’s core requirements to support active portfolio risk management and valuation by systematically integrating “meaningful uncertainty” for enhanced decision making.
We will evaluate key risk metrics , including margin at risk, cost at risk, rates at risk, and value at risk. Ascend’s portfolio management analytics services serve to “lock -in” profits / preserve margin in alignment with performance metrics / budget forecasts, maintain the City of Fontan a’s competitive advantage through periods of adverse market conditions, and generate profits through dynamic hedging and DER dispatch.
Ascend’s Portfolio Management service allows the City of Fontana to assess and Mark to Market hedge transactions of various types and their relative risk reduction value to the portfolio including swaps, shaped fixed- price swaps, futures, call/put options, CRRs, and more. Ascend’s reporting tools output simulation data for optimal hedging and what-if hedge analysis to provide information on key risk metrics so the City of Fontana can make actionable decisions.
A Modern Approach to Planning and PPA Valuation
Ascend can assist the City of Fontana to develop resource plans and value PPA bids, including:
• Assess medium - and long -term position and gross margins risks to variability in prices, load, gen, and weather
• Find the best resource plan across both cost and risk • Determine market transaction value and portfolio benefits • Use Ascend’s fundamentals driven price forecasts to address changing market dynamics • Simulate hourly and sub-hourly prices to quantify extrinsic value of assets Ascend thanks the City of Fontana for this opportunity and we look forward to discussing our offerings with you soon.
Gary Dorris, PhD
CEO, Ascend Analytics
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4 3. SCOPE OF SERVICES & PRICE
Ascend Analytics (Ascend) is pleased to submit this proposal to support the City of Fontana in evaluating whether or not to form a Community Choice Aggregation entity for power supply in the city. Ascend is a nationally recognized leader in power system resource planning, bringing advanced risk-based analytics to capture the changing market dynamics that are emerging during this time of energy transition. Ascend is a 150 plus person analytics software and advisory services firm based in Boulder, Colorado. We are 100% focused on the electric power industry, providing analytical solutions and consulting support for resource planning, power system operations, and portfolio risk management.
Ascend understands the objective is to hire one firm to evaluate the feasibility of operating a CCA program, and if feasible and directed by the City, provide all services necessary to develop the CCA governance structure, conduct the CCA start-up and implementation, and conduct all phases of CCA operations.
Ascend has provided the scope of services below to begin the feasibility of operating a CCA program and will provide a proposal for the balance of work after discussing the project goals and objectives in more detail with the City of Fontana.
TASK 1: INITIAL FEASIBILITY STUDY/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
The City CCA must offer customer energy rates that are equal to or less than the incumbent IOU’s energy rates. So the feasibility study must determine if this is possible by conducting a thorough financial analysis of CCA costs, necessary revenues, and assumptions made in determining these.
If the feasibility study concludes that the CCA is not financially viable, the study should state why it is not viable and what circumstances or assumptions must change to make it viable. The City fully expects that CCA viability or non-viability will be fully explained before any CCA program next steps are authorized.
In addition to the feasibility study, prepare a Business/Implementation Plan which describes the consultant team members, their role and responsibilities, and their experience. Include the following CCA functions (below) in the Business Plan.
As mentioned in the cover letter, the task of initial feasibility and financial analysis for the creation of a new CCA was recently conducted by Ascend Analytics in New Hampshire. Combined with Ascend’s vast experience with California CCAs and the CAISO market, Ascend is well positioned to deliver on this entire scope for the City of Fontana.
A detailed scoping meeting is necessary to accurately price this effort. With the high-level scope provided in the RFP documents, Ascend estimates a total cost of $450,000 to provide the technical feasibility analysis of creating a CCA. This is subject to a detailed scoping discussion that we will facilitate with the City of Fontana and any other partner cities participating in this study.
Ascend is a leader in providing the solutions needed for a CCA to maintain financial stability and keep rates down, and our intent is to be your partner long-term. We are eager to provide the initial analysis for your consideration of pursuing a CCA.
Confidential Proposal for City of Fontana
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5 4. KEY PERSONNEL
The following table lists Ascend leadership available for this project. Staff bios are included below.
Name Title Role
Dr. Gary Dorris CEO Engagement Director
Dr. Brent Nelson Managing Director of Markets &
Strategy Market Forecasting Lead
Scott Wrigglesworth Vice President, Operations & Strategy Portfolio Management Lead Dr. Brandon Mauch Managing Director of Resource Planning Resource Planning Lead Anthony Boukarim Director of Resource Planning &
Valuation Energy Procurement, Lead
Zach Brode Manager, Analytics Modeling and Analysis Support, Forecasting Dr. Anand Govindarajan Manager, Energy Analytic Solutions Modeling and Analysis Support, Portfolio Management
Paul Eory Director of Resource Planning Modeling and Analysis Support, Resource Planning
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6 Firm:
Ascend Analytics
Name: Dr. Gary Dorris
Title:
Years of Experience:
President
30 Education: Ph.D., Applied Economics and Finance – Cornell University (1996) B.S., Mechanical Engineering – Cornell University (1988) B.A., Economics – Cornell University (1988)
Office Address: 1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 Telephone: 303.415.0311
Email Address: [email protected]
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/gary-dorris-2299302
Current Bio
Dr. Gary Dorris is a trailblazer in the realm of renewable energy, recognized as a visionary expert with over two decades of pioneering solutions for energy risk management and portfolio planning. As the founder and CEO of Ascend Analytics, he has spearhea ded the organic growth of the company into a prominent provider of cutting - edge quantitative software solutions for energy portfolio management and data infrastructure.
With an exceptional understanding of applied economics and finance as a Ph.D. from Cornell University and his remarkable record of accomplishment spanning more than twenty years, Dr. Dorris has consistently been at the forefront of innovation in the field of battery storage. His groundbreaking analytical innovations have paved the way for the development of over a dozen proprietary software applications, utilized by a vast network of over 200 energy and renewable resource companies.
Firm: Ascend Analytics
Name: Brent Nelson, PhD
Title:
Years of Experience:
Managing Director of Markets and Strategy
17 Education: Ph.D., Mechanical Engineering – Georgia Institute of Technology (2007) M.S., Mechanical Engineering – Georgia Institute of Technology (2004) B.S., Mechanical Engineering – University of California, Berkeley (2002) Office Address: 1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 Telephone: 720.388.-1380
Email Address: [email protected]
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/brentanelson
Dr. Nelson leads the forecasting practice and provides expertise in new market dynamics, storage and renewable project valuation, resource planning, and renewable integration. Prior to joining Ascend, Dr. Nelson was an Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Northern Arizona University, while also holding a
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7 collaborative appointment at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. He also worked for the US Department of Energy from 2014-2016, focusing on technology research and development programs for energy efficiency and demand side management. He has extensive experience in energy technology and energy system modeling, with a focus on understanding the impacts of technological change. Dr. Nelson holds PhD and MS degrees in mechanical engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology, and a bachelor‘s degree in mechanical engineering from the University of California, Berkeley.
Scott Wrigglesworth, Vice President, Operations and Strategy, leads Ascend Analytics’ PowerSIMM business for SaaS, modeling, and consulting. Scott joined Ascend in 2018, adding more than 20 years of experience in energy markets, power portfolio management, and optimization and risk management to the Ascend Analytics leadership team.
While at Ascend Analytics, Mr. Wrigglesworth has worked with more than fifty companies spanning the power sector, including utilities, CCAs and retail, IPPs, renewable and storage, corporates, banks and insurance – helping them optimize their decision analytics for the energy transition.
Prior to joining Ascend Analytics, Mr. Wrigglesworth held leadership positions at AES Corporation and Dayton Power and Light Company, where he served for 17 years and focused on actionable reporting for the AES/DPL portfolio. Mr. Wrigglesworth also teaches courses on Energy Markets at the University of Dayton.
Firm: Ascend Analytics
Name: Brandon Mauch, PhD
Title:
Years of Experience:
Director of Resource Planning Analytics
11 Education: Ph.D., Engineering and Public Policy – Carnegie Mellon University (2012) M.S., Mechanical Engineering – University of Wisconsin, Madison (1998) B.S., Mechanical Engineering – University of Kansas (1996) Office Address: 1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 Telephone & Fax: 720.307.8189
Email Address: [email protected]
Firm: Ascend Analytics
Scott Wrigglesworth
Vice President , Operations and Strategy
18 Name:
Title:
Years of Experience:
Education:
MBA – University of Dayton
B.A., Global Economics , and International Business – Cedarville University Office Address: 1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 Telephone: (303) 415 -1400
Email Address: [email protected]
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/scottwrigglesworth
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8 LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/brandon-mauch-a752a551
Brandon Mauch, Manager of Resource Planning Analytics, leads a team of analysts at Ascend in providing modeling support for resources planning. He is currently managing work for Northwestern Energy and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.
Prior to joining Ascend, Brandon was a Senior Program Manager for CLEAResult Consulting where he managed utility energy efficiency and demand response programs for Midwestern utilities. Before that, he was a Utility Regulation Engineer for the Iowa Utilities Board where he worked on regional energy policy issues, resource planning and rate cases for Iowa’s investor-owned utilities.
Brandon holds a Ph.D. in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University where his research focused on wind power forecasting and risk assessment of wind forecasts. He also holds a master's degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Wisconsin and a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Kansas.
Firm: Ascend Analytics
Name: Anthony Boukarim
Title:
Years of Experience:
Senior Manager of Resource Planning and Valuation
8 Education: Master of Energy Resources Engineering – Stanford University (2020) B.E., Mechanical Engineering – American University of Beirut (2015) Office Address: 1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 Telephone: 720 642 9459
Email Address: [email protected]
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/anthonyboukarim/
Anthony Boukarim, Senior Manager of Resource Planning and Valuation, leads Ascend’s RFO services supporting load serving entities procure resources to meet their energy and capacity needs. He manages multiple resource planning efforts (IRPs, RFO administration, asset valuations, decarbonization studies) for clients across the US. He provides consulting expertise for utilities and CCAs for renewable integration, reliability, a nd risk management.
His portfolio of clients in California and the broader west includes Clean Power Alliance, San Jose Clean Energy, San Diego Community Power, Peninsula Clean Energy, Grant County Public Utility District, and Arizona Corporation Commission, among others.
Prior to joining Ascend, Mr. Boukarim worked at Arthur D. Little/McKinsey & Co as a management consultant in their Energy & Utilities Practice. Mr. Boukarim has also worked as a research analyst in energy topics for Stanford University and University of California, Berkeley.
In addition to five years of international experience in the energy sector, he holds a master’s degree in Energy Resources Engineering from Stanford University and a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the American University of Beirut.
Firm: Ascend Analytics
Name: Zach Brode
Title:
Years of Experience:
Manager of Analytics
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9 Education: M.A., Economics, University of British Columbia (2018) B.A. Economics & Mathematics, Wheaton College (2017)
Office Address: 1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 Telephone: 720.388.1373
Email Address: [email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/zach-brode-414b9abb Zach Brode leads resource planning, portfolio management, and valuation projects . He also manages the development of PowerSIMM. Zach joined Ascend after completing his M.A. in Economics at the University of British Columbia.
At Ascend, Zach works with utility clients to model energy systems in support of capacity planning and resource assessment and valuation. He also has experience with avoided cost analysis and new resource power procurement analysis.
Firm: Ascend Analytics
Name: Anand Govindarajan
Title:
Years of Experience:
Manager, Energy Analytic Solutions
11 Education: PhD. Energy Economics & Policy – Penn State (2017) M.S. Energy Economics & Policy – Penn State (2012)
B.S. Chemical Engineering, NIT India (2009)
Office Address: 1877 Broadway, Suite 706, Boulder, CO 80302 Telephone: 303.414.0311
Email Address: [email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anand-govindarajan/ Dr. Anand Govindarajan, Manager, Energy Analytic Solutions , will provide modeling expertise and support in portfolio management activities. Before joining Ascend, Anand worked as a Graduate Intern at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory exploring synergies between solar and storage systems in demand charge reduction and developing predictive models for solar PV adoption in low to medium income households. Anand has a Ph.D. in Energy Economics & Policy from Penn State where he worked on assessing the distributional impacts of energy policies on wholesale electricity markets and the impact of distributed energy resources integration on the power grid. Anand also has internship experience with Consortium for Building Energy Innovation (CBEI) & Mid-Atlantic Clean Energy Applications Center - both funded by Dept. of Energy.
Name: Paul Eory
Title:
Years of Experience:
Director of Resource Planning
12 Education: B.B.A., International Business & Economics – Saginaw Valley State University (2014) Office Address: Michigan
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10 Telephone & Fax: 720.689.7723
Email Address: [email protected]
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/eorypaul
Paul Eory, Director of Resource Planning, joined Ascend Analytics to lead integrated resource planning, reliability analysis, project valuation, and portfolio management projects for clients across the many energy markets. He brings over 12 years of experience in the energy sector, having worked in various roles at municipal utilities. He started his career at Bay City Electric Light & Power, where he managed energy efficiency programs.
He then joined Lansing Board of Water & Light as the modeler for their integrated resource plan. For the past 8 years, he has been leading IRPs, FP&A, rate setting, and strategic planning initiatives at the largest municipal utility in Michigan. Paul holds a B.B.A. in International Business & Economics from Saginaw Valley State University.
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11 5. EXPERIENCE
At Ascend Analytics, we value our clients as partners in achieving a sustainable, clean-energy future. We provide cutting-edge solutions for energy resource planning, procurement, strategy, and risk management. Our products and services are tailored to meet the specific needs and goals of each client, whether they are utilities, regulators, developers, or investors. We leverage our expertise, experience, and innovation to help our clients navigate the complex and dynamic energy markets. We are proud to work with some of the leading organizations in the energy sector, such as Austin Energy, Los Angeles Department of Water & Power (LADWP), Duke Energy, and many more. Our clients trust us to deliver reliable, accurate, and actionable insights that empower them to make informed decisions and optimize their performance. Visit our website to see a full client list.
Ascend’s strengths for this project include:
• Experience administering and evaluating clean energy RFOs and RFPs, leading to familiarity with the costs and availability of a variety of resources, as well as relationships with appropriate developers. • Experience forecasting prices and performing valuations for renewable projects and batteries in a variety of ISOs, capturing the project value in energy, ancillaries, REC, and RA. • Advanced market forecasts that account for the structural changes associated with renewable deployment, including wholesale price depression, evolving price shapes that align with net load, and growing volatility.
• The ability to simulate DA and RT prices at the nodal level to account for basis risk and localized renewable saturation and curtailment.
The below table highlights Ascend’s recent experience in leading RFO services.
Client, Project,
Date Services Description
Grant County Public
Utility District
2024 All-source RFP for
energy and capacity
(2023 – Ongoing)
Ascend is administering an all -source RFP for energy and capacity on behalf of Grant County PUD of Washington State. The RFP aims to procure up to 300MW of firm capacity to meet the western resource adequacy program requirements and the state clean energy goal (CETA). Ascend is providing full support including administration of the RFP website, preparing solicitation documents, running bidder conference, managing the bid submissions, conducting QAQC, performing valuation of offers (both individually and in portfolio), providing a recommended short -list. Evaluated projects include solar, wind, storage (short and long duration), and thermal assets (including renewable fuel).
Reference: Lisa Stites, [email protected]
Clean Power Alliance
(CPA)
2019, 2020, 2021, 2022,
2023 Clean Energy,
Reliability, and MTR
RFOs
(2019 - 2023)
Clean Power Alliance (CPA) is the largest CCA in California, covering most of Los Angeles not served by LADWP. Ascend partnered with CPA to run four requests for offers (RFOs):
two Clean Energy RFO for renewable energy, one Reliability RFO for stand-alone storage, and one Mid -Term reliability RFO for clean energy, baseload resources and long duration storage. In 2019, 2020, and 2021 Ascend provided full end -to-end support for these RFOs, including:
• Vendor communication, web hosting, and preparation of solicitation documents
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12 • Automated screening and evaluation of submissions for compliance and a variety of qualitative project criteria
• Long-term, regionally differentiated forecasting of price shapes, day -ahead energy prices, real-time energy prices, and ancillary service prices • Valuation of multiple resource types, including hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, solar plus storage, and standalone storage
• Support during negotiation phase including valuation of alternative offers Full economic valuation of all available revenue streams, including both day -ahead and real-time energy, ancillary services, and capacity value.
Reference: John McNamara, [email protected] Lansing Board of Water
and Light (LBWL)
2023 All-source RFP for
energy and capacity
(2022 – 2023)
Ascend administer ed an all -source RFP for energy and capacity on behalf of Lansing Board of Water and Light. The RFP aims to procure 475 MW of net qualifying capacity to replace the expected retirements of their coal fleet. Ascend is providing full support including administration of the RFP website, preparing solicitation documents, ru nning bidder conference, managing the bid submissions, conducting QAQC, performing valuation of offers, providing a recommended short -list based on different scenarios.
Evaluated projects include solar, wind, storage, thermal assets, energy efficiency programs, and demand response.
Reference: Tony Heriford, [email protected]
Silicon Valley Clean
Energy (SVCE)
Clean Energy and
Battery RFO Valuations
(2019 – Ongoing)
Ascend supports SVCE in evaluating all of its RFOs for the past five (5) years. Since 2019 Ascend conducts solicitations and evaluations for carbon free power supplies to meet their RPS and RA requirements. Ascend helped SVCE in the development of a scoring rubric evaluating cost, location, risk, developer experience, impact on resource adequacy, on-peak delivery, and commercial operation date. Ascend provided full valuation of the RFP responses, including:
• Total resource value, including net energy, ancillary services, and resource adequacy • Simulation of nodal prices
• Valuation of both individual resources and portfolios of combinations of resources, subject to minimum REC constraints
• Return | Risk analysis that incorporated an array of factors including resource performance vs hourly load obligation, basis (locational price difference) between resources and load, variability in production from resources, and forward and spot price uncertainty
Reference: Monica Padilla, [email protected] San Diego Clean Power
(SDCP)
Clean Energy and
Storage RFO Valuations
(2022 – Ongoing)
Ascends helps SDCP in evaluating the economic value of offers received across multiple RFOs. These include renewable plus storage RFO in 2022 (tranche 1 and 2), standalone storage RFO in 2023, and distributed generation RFO in 2023. Ascend uses PowerSIMM and its fundamental forecast to evaluate the bids and provide a ranking for the different projects. A portfolio analysis is also included on the shortlisted projects.
Reference: Andrea Torres, [email protected]
Peninsula Clean Energy
& San Jose Clean Energy
Clean Energy RFO
(2020)
Ascend partnered with PCE and SJCE to perform project valuation for a joint RFO for clean energy and battery resources. In addition to renewable and renewable + storage projects, this solicitation includes a specific category for sundown clean energy, as w ell as the flexibility to value a variety of shaped and firm renewable resources. Ascend also showed the risk reduction value of each of the shortlisted resources when compared with the overall load obligation and resource portfolios.
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13 Reference: Siobhan Doherty, [email protected] Silicon Valley Clean
Energy (SVCE)
Portfolio & Risk
Management Advisory
(2019-Current)
SVCE collaborates with Ascend Analytics on its use of PowerSIMM to model the SVCE Portfolio for the prompt month through the next five fiscal years. Ascend ’s platform runs automated studies on the weekends, then delivers reporting on Monday each week, including commentary and recommendations. This allows the Ascend team to provide support and staff augmentation. However, Ascend’s contribution to SVCE’s success is not limited to analytics output. Ascend’s Man aging Director of Operations & Strategy joins Internal Risk Oversight Committee (IROC) and Risk Oversight Committee (ROC) meetings. Ascend also provides SVCE’s finance team with budget development support and analytics.
Reference: Monica Padilla, [email protected] Silicon Valley Clean
Energy (SVCE)
Integrated Resource
Plan (IRP-LTPP
Proceeding)
(2020)
Ascend worked with SVCE to develop their 2020 Integrated Resource Plan, investigating several potential resource portfolios and legislative scenarios, including optimizing the portfolio resource mix of long-term contracted resources versus market purchases to maximize hourly clean energy supply while minimizing risk and cost to ratepayers. SVCE maintains a 100% clean energy portfolio on an annual basis and is exploring ways to deliver clean and renewable resources around the clock. Monica Padilla, Director of Resource Planning said, “I credit the team and Ascend for helping us model and synthesize the 24x7 carbon-free analysis along with the other important metrics.” A review of our work for SVCE by the California Public Utility Commission rated our quantification and management of both cost and risk as ‘best-in-class’ among all Community Choice Aggregators.
Reference: Monica Padilla, [email protected] East Bay Community
Energy (EBCE)
Integrated Resource
Planning
(2020)
Ascend partnered with EBCE to provide the analytics backbone of the 2020 IRP filing with the CPUC. Ascend worked with EBCE to develop conforming portfolios and evaluate the portfolios with respect to GHG, RPS, cost, and reliability metrics, all using Ascend’s PowerSIMM software. Ascend also worked with EBCE to develop internal procurement strategy using PowerSIMM’s Automated Resource Selection (ARS) module, an optimization tool for building portfolios that meet constraints such as GHG, RPS, and market exposure. Ascend developed portfolios that meet decreasing targets for GHG, including a 100% net GHG free portfolio. The result of the modeling effort was the adoption of the 100% net GHG free portfolio by 2030.
Reference: Marie Fontenot, [email protected]
Los Angeles Department
of Water and Power
Clean Grid LA, Once-
through-Cooling
replacement with
storage
(2017 – Ongoing)
Ascend works with Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to support their resource planning efforts to achieve SB 100 goals and the Clean Grid LA initiative.
Ascend developed a model of LADWP’s load, resources, and a transmission model of the LADWP system, including linkages to markets in Utah, Arizona, and Oregon.
Ascend performs system reliability (LOLE) analysis for candidate portfolios of resources including portfolios with primarily renewables and storage. Ascend also performs capacity expansion analyses using Automated Resource Selection and sub-hourly valuations of battery storage.
Reference: Jay Lim, [email protected]
Glendale Water and
Power (GWP)
GWP, a municipal electric utility in the heart of the Los Angeles basin serving 88,000 customer accounts, had planned for many years to repower the aging Grayson Power Plant. The first proposed repower plan, a 262 MW combined cycle natural gas power plant, was rejected by the Glendale City Council under pressure from local environmental groups. Ascend was asked to help Glendale construct a new zero/low - Confidential Proposal for City of Fontana
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14 Clean Energy RFP, 2019
IRP, 2021 100% Carbon-
free study
(2018- Ongoing)
carbon energy supply portfolio and administer and evaluate a Clean Energy Request for Proposals (RFP) of new capacity resource options to enter service by 2021 as well as prepare GWP’s IRP.
Ascend developed an optimized resource plan that included a combination of DERs, utility-scale battery storage, and reciprocating engines for reliability services. Ascend performed LOLP for reliability analysis including planning for N -1-1 events such as a wildfire across transmission lines. The plan was widely hailed by stakeholders and passed City Council with a unanimous 5 -0 vote. Steve Zurn, General Manager of GWP said, “we could not have accomplished these ambitious goals to decarbonize our power supply portfolio without Ascend. From start to finish, Ascend navigated a very challenging environment with great skill supported by outstanding analytic insight." Today Ascend is again partnering with GWP to develop a 100% clean energy plan by 2030.
Reference: Mark Young, [email protected]
6. THE ASCEND SOLUTION
Figure 1- Ascend offers clients a complete and flexible solution
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15 Figure 2- Ascend works with clients under various structures
Figure 3- Ascend provides automated and systematic process for timely information when working with Portfolio Management clients whether receiving support or advisory service.
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16 Figure 41- As an example, Ascend will often measure a portfolio’s gross margin at risk (GM@R) for a clients current portfolio, provide insight into the impact of potential or hypothetical hedges and offer recommendations on optimal hedge levels.
Ascend also works with clients to ensure hedging strategies, risk analytics and risk management policies are aligned and effective.
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17 Figure 5- Example Portfolio Management / Risk Management Dashboard. Typically customized by client based on business requirements.
Figure 6- Example position report for a Load Serving Entity including optimal hedge level and Gross Margin at risk metrics
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19 Figure 7- Example of Risk Charts showing monthly cash flow uncertainty and distribution of annual margin outcomes along with Load, Current and Optimal portfolio sensitivity to hub market prices.
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20 Figure 8- Additional examples of Risk Distributions and Payoff Diagrams.
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21 Figure 9- Example of Income Statement Projections for Financial Budgeting and Reserve Projections.
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22 Figure 10- Variance Reporting to explain Forward Budget to Current difference results, itemized by contributing factor, along with tracking of forward annual year trends weeks to week.
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23 Figure 11- Example of Cash Reserve projections with uncertainty.
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24 Figure 12- Example PPA MtM Reporting.
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25 Figure 13- Example of Counterparty forward Hedge MTM.
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26 Figure 14 Example of Price simulation ranges and comparison to prior week and Budget.
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27 Figure 15- Example REC/Attribute Position Reporting
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28 Figure 16- Example of Counterparty credit risk/Potential Future Exposure Reporting
Figure 17- Ascend’s PowerSimm ARS chooses the best resources to meet the City’s environmental and reliability objectives
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29 Figure 18- Ascend’s PowerSimm ARS finds the right balance between least-cost and least-risk with the “triathlete” Resource Plan
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30 Figure 19- Ascend can evaluate distributed energy resource options on the same playing field as supply side options. An example from resources that were incorporated into the 2019 Glendale water and power IRP.
Figure 20- Ascend captures geographic variation during RFO valuations
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31 Figure 21- Ascend provides 12x24 heat map analysis for any number of metrics including but not limited to costs, positions, renewable energy percentage, carbon free percentage, emissions, etc.
Figure 22- Ascend offers custom cost of service analysis inclusive of both ISO/Market based cost and CCA portfolio based cost.
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