Fort Bragg City Council
July 25, 2022

City of Fort Bragg
Former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site
Economic Diversification Feasibility Study
Public Review Draft
June 30, 2022
Produced in partnership with City of Fort Bragg
Sarah McCormick
David Spaur
Economic Development Advisory Team
Joshua Metz
Jennifer Simon
With project Funding from
City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 2 | P a g e Executive Summary
The City of Fort Bragg, California, selected Regional Government Services Authority (RGS) to complete an Economic Diversification Feasibility Study focused on reuse of the former Georgia Pacific mill site, which occupies about a third of the total land area of the City, as well as nearly its entire coast line. Goals of the feasibility analysis are to: a) leverage extensive prior community engaged planning outcomes since the mill closure in 2002 to reflect community supported alternatives; b) evaluate feasibility of potential future development alternatives in terms of their contribution towards economic diversification, quality jobs creation, and sustainability; and c) position the city for subsequent public and private-partnership funding to support project implementation.

Drawing from prior public planning processes, updated with actions in the current effort, community supported project priorities include:
• Low water use (and/or recycled water users);
• Central Business District (CBD) connections;
• Healthy marine ecosystems, Noyo Harbor and fishing industry connections; • Connection to entry-level and skilled trades quality jobs for residents; and • Opportunities to increase workforce housing inventory.

Several externalities that affected near, mid and longer-term strategic recommendations were identified during the initial discovery phase of this effort including:
• Coastal Ecosystems and Fisheries Impacts: Over-abundance of purple-urchin populations, brought on by climate driven ocean temperatures extremes, and subsequent trophic cascade impacts resulting in diminished kelp forest, abalone and fin-fish populations and habitat health;
• Drought: Extreme drought conditions throughout the greater western United States, with particular severity in northern California ultimately requiring water use restrictions effecting several coastal communities, tourism business and other industries; • Workforce Housing: Continued quantity and quality declines in workforce housing stocks, with coincident increases in mean housing costs throughout the State of California including the remote north coast.

These externalities combined with the community supported economic development priorities suggests a collection of inter-related project investments that collectively would meet community goals, build on existing regional initiatives, and position the city for long term fiscal and environmental resiliency.
• Blue Economy Innovation Hub. New infrastructure and facilities to support a blue economy innovation hub east of the City’s Waste Water Treatment Facility and near the City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 3 | P a g e

11.5-acre parcel owned by Noyo Center for Marine Science. Priority target industries/businesses include regenerative aqua-culture activities such as harvesting and farming wild purple-urchin populations, cultivating marine seaweed and kelp, and other small scale, land-based aquaculture activities. Key investments needed to make this possible include establishing new ocean water intake and routing potential outflow through existing water treatment plant infrastructure;
• Noyo Center for Marine Science. Implementation of an ocean fronting, bluff top facility focused on regional ocean conservation focused research, education and events center on 11-acres of the former mill site. This facility would become the new home of the Noyo Center for Marine Science, provide a venue for conducting on-going ocean conservation research and education, regenerative blue economy innovation, and a regional tourism draw.
• Redwood Avenue Extension. Extension of roads, sewer, water and power infrastructure from Redwood Avenue at Highway 1 west onto the former mill site. Such an extension would enhance mill-site connectivity with the Central Business District, and provide catalytic infrastructure to support increased coastal access, lodging and visitors serving, education, marketplace and light-industrial spaces, workforce and market-rate housing opportunities.

These three projects are the focus for our mill site economic diversification feasibility analysis and the subject of the following report. Our assessment suggests the most direct path to realizing new jobs growth and near-term city tax revenue increases would be the extension of the CBD along Redwood Avenue onto the mill site. Over the longer term, establishing critical ocean water intake and outflow infrastructure onto the site would enable the realization of both the vision for a Blue Economy Innovation Hub, and the Noyo Center for Marine Science. Both of these visions are compelling, and deserve further inquiry.

City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 4 | P a g e Contents
Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................2 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................7 City Demographics, Employment Trends and Opportunities...................................................................7 Location and Land Use Context ..............................................................................................................11 Ownership...............................................................................................................................................16 Community Planning...............................................................................................................................21 Diversification Study Process......................................................................................................................23 Background .............................................................................................................................................23 Assets......................................................................................................................................................25 Obstacles.................................................................................................................................................28 Feasibility Criteria ...................................................................................................................................29 Focus Projects.............................................................................................................................................29 Blue Economy .........................................................................................................................................29 Blue Economy Symposium & Learning Festival ......................................................................................30 Blue Economy Innovation Hub................................................................................................................31 Market.................................................................................................................................................31 Infrastructure and Permitting .............................................................................................................33 Workforce ...........................................................................................................................................33 Job Creation ........................................................................................................................................34 Noyo Center for Marine Science.............................................................................................................34 Infrastructure and Permitting .............................................................................................................35 Redwood Avenue Extension. ..................................................................................................................36 Infrastructure......................................................................................................................................37 Hospitality/Conference Center Opportunity Site ...............................................................................37 Job Creation ........................................................................................................................................37 Transient Occupancy Tax Revenue .....................................................................................................37 Sales Tax Revenue...............................................................................................................................38 Feasibility Assessment ............................................................................................................................38 Conclusion/Next Steps/Considerations......................................................................................................40 References ..................................................................................................................................................42 Appendices..................................................................................................................................................43 City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 5 | P a g e List of Figures
Figure 1. City of Fort Bragg vicinity map. ......................................................................................................8 Figure 2. Total workers by industry for City of Fort Bragg, California. .........................................................9 Figure 3. Mill Site Local Coastal Plan Land Use Concept (AdHoc Committee 2020)...................................12 Figure 4. Department of Toxic Substance Control (DTSC) Operable Unit Boundaries and Soil and Sediment status (2018) Former Georgia Pacific Mill Site, Fort Bragg, California. ......................................16 Figure 5. Former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site Ownership, June 2020..............................................................17 Figure 7. Coastal parklands along former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site (2018), City of Fort Bragg, California. 19 Figure 8. Noyo Ocean Science Center parcel map, grant deed from City to Noyo, June 10, 2020. ...........20 Figure 9. Mill Site North, Concept Master Plan, Land Use (Hornberger + Worstell, 2019). .......................21 Figure 10. Potential Blue Economy Innovation Hub, Redwood Ave Extension and Noyo Marine Science Center Infrastructure runs. .........................................................................................................................32 City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 6 | P a g e List of Tables
Table 1. Existing Mill Site Zoning – Maximum Buildout Analysis (2018). ...................................................13 Table 2. Realistic Buildout Scenario Land Use and Job Creation Estimates (Jones 2018). .........................13 Table 3. City of Fort Bragg, former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site planning processes and outcomes...............22 Table 4. Economic diversification feasibility study stakeholder engagements. .........................................24 Table 5. Blue Economy Innovation Hub job creation estimates over 4 years. ...........................................34 Table 6. Blue Economy Innovation Hub and Noyo Ocean Science Center infrastructure to site cost estimates.....................................................................................................................................................36 Table 7. Former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site, economic diversification feasibility assessment, City of Fort Bragg, 2022. ................................................................................................................................................39 City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 7 | P a g e Introduction
The City of Fort Bragg is located on the north coast of Mendocino County, California (Figure 1).

With close proximity to coastal forests and the Pacific Ocean, the town and regional economy has historically been largely resource dependent (forestry and fisheries) until the early 1990s.

Since then, the economy has become increasingly tourism and hospitality dependent. The 2002 closure of the former Georgia-Pacific lumber mill, located on coastal bluffs between the city and the Pacific Ocean, has created new economic development opportunities and challenges. This report builds from extensive community engaged planning since the mill closed. It updates and refines this community input with more recent council and stakeholder engagements. The report assesses feasibility of alternative catalytic projects to drive long-dreamed of appropriate economic diversification, new venture formation, quality jobs growth, and community resiliency.

City Demographics, Employment Trends and Opportunities
The City of Fort Bragg population was 7,302 per American Community Survey data for 2015-2019.

The region has a civilian labor force of 3,313 with a participation rate of 59.6%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the City of Fort Bragg, CA, 15.3% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with

33.5% in the nation. The median household income in the City of Fort Bragg, is $44,276 and the median house value is $342,200 (JobsEQ 2021).

Employment & Wage Trends
As of 2021-Q2, total employment for the City of Fort Bragg was 3,967 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2021-Q2, employment increased 9.1% in the region. The average worker in the City of Fort Bragg earned annual wages of $46,495 as of 2021-Q2. Average annual wages per worker increased 10.3% in the region over the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $64,141 in the nation as of 2021-Q2, and employment increased 8.3% nationally (JobsEQ 2021).

City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 8 | P a g e Figure 1. City of Fort Bragg vicinity map.

City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 9 | P a g e Industry Sectors
The largest industry sector in the City of Fort Bragg, is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 940 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (667 workers) and Accommodation and Food Services (606). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (LQ = 2.78), Accommodation and Food Services (2.01), and Retail Trade (1.61) (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Total workers by industry for City of Fort Bragg, California.

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2021- Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2021-Q2 (Appendix A).

Sectors in the City of Fort Bragg, with the highest average wages per worker are Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($68,372), Public Administration ($61,499), and Finance and Insurance ($59,715). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Construction (+18 jobs), Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (+18), and Wholesale Trade (+18).

Over the next 5 years, employment in the City of Fort Bragg, CA is projected to contract by 39 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +1.3% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+64 jobs).

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Occupation Groups
Occupation groups in the City of Fort Bragg, with the highest average wages per worker are Legal Occupations ($97,400), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations ($93,800), and Management Occupations ($91,100). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.1% among Community and Social Service Occupations to 9.4% among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations.

Over the next 5 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the City of Fort Bragg, is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +2.2% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Healthcare Support Occupations (+35 jobs) and Community and Social Service Occupations (+13). Over the same period, the highest separation demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (399 jobs) and Sales and Related Occupations (309).

Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2021Q1, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2021Q2.

Wages by occupation are as of 2020 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Opportunities
These data trends and projections reflect the critical importance of hospitality and tourism to the Mendocino Coast/City of Fort Bragg economy. Sound economic development principles include building on existing hospitality and tourism-related strengths for nearest term jobs gain, and proactively engaging in diversification efforts to increase resiliency over the longer term. These data also point to the unique qualities of the region, as reflected in the Location Quotients in fisheries, agriculture and forestry. As such, another sound economic development principle City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 11 | P a g e
would be to identify and emphasize unique regional characteristics and opportunities to leverage those for community economic benefit.

Location and Land Use Context
The entire 430-acre former Georgia Pacific mill site is wholly within the city limits, comprising one third of the total land area of the city. The site functioned as a lumber mill since 1885, and separatesthe town proper from the Pacific Ocean. It can accommodate a range of potential uses and is adjacent to several opportunity areas, such as Noyo Harbor and CA Hwy 1. As described in the 2018 Mill Site Local Coastal Plan – Utility Master Plan (Jones 2018), current community supported uses of the site include a mix of residential, commercial, coastal industrial, recreation and conservation.

Currently, the zoning designation for the site is Timber Resources Industrial Zoning. Rezoning lands designated Timber Resources Industrial are required to undergo a comprehensive community-based planning process and an amendment to the City’s Local Coastal Program, certified by the California Coastal Commission1. The most recent comprehensive communitybased planning process effort took place in 2017-2020. Following the acquisition of 77-acres by the Mendocino Railway in August 2019, the City convened a Mill Site Ad Hoc Committee to focus on completing the planning process for the northern portion of the site (Plan Area A), in order to help facilitate Mendocino Railway’s development plans, which resulted in the land use concept shown in Figure 3.
1 Policy LU-7.2: Comprehensive Planning Process Required. LCP amendments that propose to rezone lands designated Timber Resources Industrial must be developed through a comprehensive community-based planning process. Community participation shall be solicited throughout the planning process in accordance with established City practices and CLUDC requirements. The LCP amendment shall:

1. Establish new land use classifications, development policies and standards;

2. Identify potential connections for existing and future infrastructure connections such as roads, utilities, and coastal access to surrounding developed and undeveloped areas;

3. Establish orderly phasing for development and future rezoning activities;

4. Include other measures as needed to protect the health, safety, and well-being of the community;

5. Map new zoning and transportation facilities, including coastal access; and

6. Be consistent with the all policies of the Coastal Act and Fort Bragg’s LCP.

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Figure 3. Mill Site Local Coastal Plan Land Use Concept (AdHoc Committee 2020).

The Utility Master Plan leveraged the City’s Mill Site Buildout Analysis (2018) to characterize utility requirements under maximum and realistic buildout scenarios. As shown in Table 1, current mill site zoning could accommodate approximately 5M square-feet (SF) of development (4.6M industrial, 250k SF commercial) and just over 9k jobs. The scaled-back “realistic” build-out scenario in the 2018 Mill Site Utility Master Plan, contemplated average development density as currently found throughout the city, which would result in: 250 acres of parks, open space & urban reserve; 315 units of housing, and 1,895 new jobs. Total development would include 293 City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 13 | P a g e
hotel rooms, 775,000 SF of commercial & institutional development, and 460,000 SF of industrial development (Table 2). Our development analysis uses this 2018 Realistic Development scenario to assess development alternatives feasibility.

Table 1. Existing Mill Site Zoning – Maximum Buildout Analysis (2018).

Table 2. Realistic Buildout Scenario Land Use and Job Creation Estimates (Jones 2018).

Land Use Value Units
Parks & Open Space 250 acres
Housing 315 units
Housing 361,236 square feet
Industrial 460,313 square feet
Commercial & Institutional 775, 763 square feet
Total Development Area 821,549 Square feet
Hotel Rooms 293 rooms
Job Creation 1,895 jobs
City staff transitions and the Covid-19 pandemic stalled the planning process before consensus had been reached regarding rezoning the southern portion of the site (Plan Area B). That said, Table 3 - Maximum Buildout Analysis - Existing Mill Site Zoning (2018) Zoning
Land
Area
(acres)
Existing
Development
(SF) Existing Uses
Streets
(acres) 1
Developa
ble Land
(acres)
Developable
Land (SF) FAR
Maximum
Buildout (SF)
Highway Commercial 2.8 1,236 One SFR 1.0 1.82 79,279 0.40 31,712 Central Business District 4.4 16,804
Office Building &
Corp Yard

1.5 2.86 124,582 2.00 249,163
Subtotal 7.2 18,040 280,875
Jobs 2 15 234
Heavy Industrial 8.7 6,645 Office Buildings 1.3 7.40 322,126 0.40 128,850 Timber Resources Industrial 308.0 79,216 4 SFR & Dry Shed 4 46.2 261.84 11,405,696 0.40 4,562,278 Subtotal 316.7 85,861 4,691,129
Jobs 160 8,768
Public Facilities 4.0 77,000 WWTF 0.1 3.9 NA 77,000
Timber Resources Industrial 110.0 2,000
Noyo Headlands Park
& Noyo Center

5.5 104.5 NA 2,000
Subtotal 114.0 79,000 79,000
Jobs 12 12
Total Area 437.9
Total Development (SF) 182,901 5,051,004
Total Jobs 188 9,015
GP Owned Commercial Property
GP Owned Indutrial Property
City Owned Property

2. Jobs/SF data from USGBC Building Are Per Employee by Business Type and US Energy Informtaion Administration Commercial Buildings Emnergy Consumption Survey. Jobs multipliers include the following: Assumes 1 job/1200 SF for CH and CBD, 1 job/535 SF for IH and IT

1. This analysis assumes the following percentages for streets 35% for commercial zones; 15% for Industrial zones; and 2% to 5% for open space and parks. This reflects the existing allocation of land use to streets in the city of Fort Bragg.

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the community did identify a need for jobs, housing and open space – specifically, a desire for light coastal industrial uses, housing, remediating mill ponds by removing the dam, restoring estuary tidal flows and wetlands, daylighting creeks, and establishing a wildlife corridor.

Beginning in 2021, the City initiated conversations with Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo Indians in partnering on reuse of the site, and began working with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to develop a clean-up strategy. This led to a verbal agreement with Georgia Pacific for the City to acquire the remaining 210-acres on the southern portion of site. The City actively engaged in due diligence activities to take over legal and financial obligations including conducting a Phase I environmental report, securing insurance and necessary financing, and participating in on-going meetings with partners committed to assist with remediation and development.

However, Mendocino Railway filed an eminent domain complaint against Georgia Pacific, who dropped the verbal agreement with the City and ceded all remaining holdings to Mendocino Railway. The City is seeking a court judgement stating that Mendocino Railway’s tourist excursion operations do not qualify as a public utility with eminent domain powers, and do not qualify as a federally regulated common carrier providing transportation. A court ruling in the City’s favor would ensure that future development plans of the site would require a comprehensive community-based planning process, as well as local, state and federal oversight where necessary.

As previously noted, the first lumber mill was established on the site in 1885, and remained a mill site for 115 years, until the Georgia Pacific Timber Mill closed in 2002. Mill operations left behind hazardous substance, pollutants and contaminants, and the City invoked the Polanco Act, which brought the site under the oversight of California’s Department of Toxic Substance Control (DTSC) in 2006. To help organize the investigation and cleanup, DTSC divided the site into five operable units (Figure 4).

Today, about 97% of the site has been remediated by Georgia Pacific, under DTSC oversight. The final area needing remediation is located in Operable Unit E, which involves contaminants found within in the mill ponds located near the center of site and a weak dam. Any proposed remedy will require a Coastal Development Permit and an Environmental Impact Report, pursuant to the City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 15 | P a g e
California Environmental Quality Act prior to implementation. To date, public input suggests there is community support to remove the dam, beach berm, and rip-rap that could be vulnerable to sea level rise and tsunamis, in order to restore tidal flow and wetlands; including the daylighting Maple and Alder creeks.

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Figure 4. Department of Toxic Substance Control (DTSC) Operable Unit Boundaries and Soil and Sediment status (2018) Former Georgia Pacific Mill Site, Fort Bragg, California.

Ownership
Since the timber mill closure in 2002, a number of parcels have been sold or transferred to new ownership. The majority of the site is owned by Mendocino Railway. Other ownership includes:

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City of Fort Bragg’s Noyo Headlands Park; Noyo Center for Marine Science parcel for future ocean science facility; Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo Indian housing on Noyo Point Road, and a couple of parcels with commercial zoning near CA Hwy 1 with existing buildings purchased by local businesses (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site Ownership, June 2020.

Sherwood Band of Pomo Indians Property
Indigenous people have inhabited the Mendocino coast for over 2,000 years. In 1856, the Mendocino Indian Reservation was established, which encompassed the former mill site along City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 18 | P a g e
with 25,000-acres stretching from Hare Creek to the south, just north of Abalobadiah Creek, and about 3 miles inland. The Fort Bragg military outpost was established in 1886 to oversee the reservation. The outpost was vacated in 1864 and the reservation was discontinued in 1866 (Figure 6).

The Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo Indians have maintained residences on the site for generations. During conversations between the City of Fort Bragg, Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo Indians, and Georgia Pacific related to acquiring 210-acres on the southern portion of site, Georgia Pacific stated their willingness to transfer the parcels on Noyo Point with tribal housing to the tribe. The land transfer occurred in 2020.

Given the long history of indigenous people in the region, the former mill site holds extensive cultural significance and resources. Any future development plans related to the site shall include government to government consultations between the City of Fort Bragg and Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo, as well as utilize archeological surveys, and tribal monitoring.

Coastal Trail and Parkland: Noyo Headlands Park
The City’s initial community planning process for reuse of the mill site kicked-off in 2004 and immediately identified the desire for a continuous coastal bluff trail to provide public access along the coast, which had been closed off for generations. In 2010, the City was awarded $4.2 million in grant funds from the State of California Coastal Conservancy and Georgia Pacific donated a 100-foot-wide corridor along the bluff tops. In 2013, the California Coastal Conservancy granted funding to acquire an additional 4-acres.

The Noyo Headlands Park was constructed between 2014-2018 covering 107-acres along 3.5 miles of coastal bluff top overlooking the Pacific Ocean (Figure 7). The trail is handicap accessible and multi-use, connecting the Noyo River to Pudding Creek; with artists’ benches, picnic tables, restrooms, parking, interpretive signage, and spectacular views. A true asset for locals and visitors alike.

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Figure 6. Coastal parklands along former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site (2018), City of Fort Bragg, California.

Noyo Center for Marine Science: Noyo Headlands Ocean Science Facility The history and current context for the Noyo Center for Marine Science is treated in depth later in this report. For the purposes of the Mill Site ownership summary, it is appropriate to note here that the City of Fort Bragg acquired 11.64-acre parcel from Georgia Pacific in March 2011 with grant funding from California State Coastal Conservancy for the development and operations of City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 20 | P a g e
a marine science center and/or recreation. The City transferred the parcel to Noyo Center for Marine Science in January 2020 for future facility. (Figure 10).

Figure 7. Noyo Ocean Science Center parcel map, grant deed from City to Noyo, June 10, 2020.

Mendocino Railway
In 2019 Mendocino Railway, acquired 77-acres of the northern portion of site and presented a concept master plan for residential, commercial and recreational uses of the land, based on zoning designations represented in the Mill Site Ad Hoc Committee map shown herein Figure 9.

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In 2021, Georgia Pacific ceded an additional 210-acres on the southern portion of the site to Mendocino Railway.

Figure 8. Mill Site North, Concept Master Plan, Land Use (Hornberger + Worstell, 2019).

Community Planning
Substantial community engaged planning has occurred since the Georgia Pacific closed the timber mill in 2002. Key planning processes and outcomes are summarized in Table 3.

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Table 3. City of Fort Bragg, former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site planning processes and outcomes.

Date(s) Process Outcome(s)
2002-2006 Mill Closure – Community
Envisioning Process
Community engaged reuse concept
2009-2012 DRAFT Specific Plan a Draft Utility Master plan and Draft Master Subdivision Map, as well as a Draft Development
Agreement and market analysis. However, Georgia
Pacific withdrew their application before an
environmental analysis was conducted. The Specific
Plan was not finalized.
2004-2013
Noyo Headlands Park
Vision, Acquisition,
Entitlements
The City designed and constructed Noyo Headlands
Park - 107 acres of parkland with multiuse trail
situated along the bluff tops, providing public access
to the former Mill Site coastline for the first time in over a century.
2014 – 2018 Noyo Headlands Park
Construction
2017-2020 City lead public input
processes
The City conducted another round of public input and
planning activities to consider reuse options. This
included public workshops, meetings with community
organizations, community surveys, tabling at the
Famer’s Market, conducting site tours, and holding 18
public city meetings through the City Council and
Planning Commission.
2020-2022 Economic Diversification
Feasibility Study
The current effort, funded by the Economic
Development Administration, has engaged the City
Council, planning commission, Harbor District,
industry, non-governmental organizations, tribes and
the public in an active economic diversification study.

Key outcomes of these community engaged planning processes include the following community supported development guidelines:

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o Prioritizing a diversity of higher wage job generating uses; o Including mixed-use development and affordable housing; o Extension of Central Business District onto the Mill Site; o Employ sustainable design and management practices;
o Phased development process.

The current economic diversification feasibility study integrates outcomes of these prior works and provide context for advancing key inter-connected projects to catalyze jobs growth, new revenue and realization of long developed visions.

Diversification Study Process
Regional Government Services Authority (RGS) was selected by the City of Fort Bragg, California, to complete an Economic Diversification Feasibility Study from the vantage point of the former Georgia Pacific Mill Site. Goals of the feasibility analysis are to: a) leverage extensive prior community engaged planning outcomes since the mill closure in 2002 to reflect community supported alternatives; b) evaluate feasibility of potential future development alternatives in terms of their contribution towards economic diversification, quality jobs creation, and sustainability; and c) position the City for subsequent public and private-partnership funding to support project implementation.

Background
The RGS team worked closely with city staff to understand and assess past actions and community supported reuse alternatives. The team engaged with a newly formed Economic Development Ad Hoc Committee comprised of two representatives of both City Council and Planning Commission to hear first-hand priorities, discuss alternatives, and report stakeholder engagement learnings. The project team also worked with city staff to identify and engage community stakeholders, industry, academia and workforce training providers, nongovernmental organizations, other local jurisdictions and special districts, State of California and community groups in the process of scoping feasibility assessment focus projects (Table 4).

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Table 4. Economic diversification feasibility study stakeholder engagements.

Stakeholder Topic(s)
Business Community Representatives Blue economy; Economic opportunities and challenges City of Fort Bragg Economic Development
Ad Hoc Committee
Study scope; Blue economy; Community priorities
Sherwood Valley Band of the Pomo Mill site reuse alternatives; blue economy; workforce development; economic opportunity
Noyo Harbor District Current conditions; Blue economy; Future alternatives Mendocino College Blue economy; Workforce training; partnerships Noyo Center for Marine Science Center concept and activity; Blue economy; education; workforce development.

West Business Development Center Blue economy; Regional economic development coordination; Economic opportunities and challenges
Governors’ Office of Business & Economic
Development (Go-Biz)
Blue economy; aquaculture; funding opportunities;
coordination
Humboldt Bay Harbor District North Coast wind power development; Blue economy opportunity
Port of San Diego’s Aquaculture & Blue
Technology Program
Blue economy opportunity
California Sea Grant Blue economy opportunity
Aquaculture Specialists and Entrepreneurs Blue economy opportunity Blue Tech Businesses Blue economy opportunity
University of California, Agriculture &
Natural Resources (UCANR)
Community development; workforce training;
partnerships
These engagements provided valuable context for identifying and selecting the three interconnected focus projects for this feasibility study: Blue Economy Innovation Hub, Noyo Center for Marine Science, and Redwood Avenue Extension. The engagements also verified community supported directions and reuse priorities, and confirmed blue economy market interest, with a particular focus on the appeal of new aquaculture and marine fisheries focused facilities. Key job generating uses of interest that were identified during the stakeholder engagements include:
o Marine Research Center;
o Aquaculture Innovation Cluster;
o Hospitality businesses including hotel(s) and dining; City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 25 | P a g e
o Interagency Government Center – Resource Agencies and/or Research Institutions;
o Coastal Industries Cluster (Power Generation, Fisheries Related, Industrial Crafts);
o Regional sports field complex;
o Other recreational facilities (i.e. Golf course, expanded biking facilities, athletic playing fields, eco-tourism facilities/opportunities).

Assets
The current study reveals numerous local and regional assets that could support the strategic directions desired by the community and contribute to the city’s ability to diversify and make more resilient its local and regional economy. Key assets identified during this study include:
• Community. Talented motivated staff, engaged leadership and community stakeholders, and an extensive body of community engaged plans. The bones of the City of Fort Bragg are solid. The former lumber mill history leaves the city with a wealth of historic buildings, neighborhoods, parks and community facilities. Along with the facilities, the remote location of the city has attracted self-determined community members including tradespeople, artists, dreamers and doers. Even while improvements can be made on many fronts, this foundation of engaged leaders, self-determined community members, and neighborhood character provides a great launching pad for economic rebirth. • Location. With direct proximity to the Pacific Ocean, and current Coastal Industrial zoning, the Mill Site offers a unique opportunity to grow a Blue Economy2 Cluster. Components of a potential Blue Economy Cluster in Fort Bragg could include:
o Noyo Harbor. The Noyo Harbor is a protected harbor providing full service marine facilities in support of a small but productive fishing industry. It is located just south of the former mill site, with the north harbor being accessible via city roads and state Highway 1, and the south harbor being accessible via Highway 20 and County roads. The Harbor supports fisheries packers and shippers including 2 https://www.portofsandiego.org/waterfront-development/blue-economy City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 26 | P a g e
regular trucks running to and from the San Francisco Bay Area and other parts of California.
o Marine Research. Several research facilities are currently located along the California Coast from Humboldt Bay to Bodega Bay, and the Monterey Bay to Scripps Oceanography, to the Port of San Diego. The Port of San Diego’s Aquaculture & Blue Technology Program has been helpful in connecting the City of Fort Bragg with resources and other enterprises supporting the blue economy cluster in the San Diego area.
o Aquaculture Business. Operations focused on shellfish and kelp farming would be attractive. Many of these businesses employ market forces to positively affect the marine ecosystems, such as removing and ranching purple urchin, which supports kelp restoration efforts. Other examples include growing seaweeds to clean toxins from water, or for benefits of their carbon sequestration potential. o Power Generation. A significant wind power farm is actively being contemplated off the Humboldt County coast. There may be opportunities for the City of Fort Bragg to participate in this developing market. Power generation affiliated with the former mill site would also contribute to regional resiliency and sustainability goals.
o Desalination. Long term climate patterns, including the current year drought suggest development of new drinking water sources would be strategically wise.

The site is uniquely positioned to offer the city and region a possible desalination facility location. Such a facility could yield revenue and long-term sustainability benefits.
• Coastal Trail and Parkland. The City of Fort Bragg’s 107-acre Noyo Headlands Park is situated along prime coastal bluff land with a multi-use, public access trail. This worldclass facility runs for approximately 10-miles from the Noyo River up to MacKerricher State Park and Ten Mile Dune Preserve with direct access to downtown, neighborhoods City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 27 | P a g e
and lodgings. The newly created recreation facility is an invaluable asset for attracting recreational tourists, having the potential to drive increased visitation and small business innovation, and should not be overlooked.
o Noyo Harbor Connection. While the Noyo Headlands Park coastal trail connects Pomo Bluffs Park via the Noyo Harbor bridge, a critical connection between the former mill site and the harbor remains outstanding. Building such a connection would not only increase visitation and tourism access to the harbor, but it would also provide a secondary egress point in the event of future emergencies. • Innovative Uses. Innovative concepts for economic development reuse emerged from stakeholder engagement during the initial project period and include interest and mobilization around the following concepts:
o Place-maker Space. Development of a light industrial area for one or two buildings in the 5,000, 10,000 to 20,000 square foot range to provide a space for handcrafted arts such as ceramics, glass blowing, sculpture, metal work and welding. The center could provide a visitor attraction and retail opportunity, while providing skills development for the local workforce. This concept would build from the city’s talented craft community and world renown of local artists and programs such as the Krenov School of Fine Furniture, Pacific Textile Arts, and local Mendocino Art Center.
o Commercial Kitchen and Cannery. A local business community leader developed a co-op vegetable canning business plan to support local farmers, generate new salable goods, and increase local food security. The concept would provide facilities for canning of local produce and link the goods with market opportunities. Our goal would be to assist in locating the start-up capital to help get this off the ground and running. The idea for a facility has been duplicated as a commercial kitchen in many communities already. What is needed is a 2,000 square foot facility with refrigeration, sinks, storage and FDA approved surfaces.

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o Mixed-Use, Live-Work Space. Provide for high density residential projects along Main Street (Hwy 1) with retail on the first level and residential live-work space above increasing downtown walkability and jobs-housing balance. Such an approach would improve existing downtown to former mill site connections, as well as reduce parking and transportation service needs.

Obstacles
Along with the assets noted above, the background and current conditions portion of this study revealed a number of obstacles that will likely need to be overcome to realize sustained and durable economic development including:
• Site control. As of this writing, Mendocino Railway owns the majority of site and is declaring federal status as a railway and thereby exempt from local and state oversight from the City of Fort Bragg, California Coastal Commission and other pertinent agencies.

As documented previously in this report, the City is seeking a court ruling stating that Mendocino Railway is required to adhere to the City of Fort Bragg’s Local Coastal Program (LCP), which guides development in the California’s coastal zone. In order to advance community economic reuse visions, either the city or an aligned development partner needs to control the site to ensure rezoning is subject to a comprehensive communitybased planning process. • Infrastructure. The former mill site lacks roads, water, sewer, power, and broadband infrastructure. Resolving this shortcoming will be expensive, and likely involve a wide range of public and private funding sources. Critical infrastructure for realizing many of the Blue Economy opportunities will be ocean water intake and outflow facilities. • Investment Catalyst. The former mill site is a unique coastal land resource with complex and potentially costly remediation and pre-development reuse planning and permitting needs. Catalyzing new private sector investment may depend heavily on cost and timeline reducing public sector investment.

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Feasibility Criteria
Our feasibility assessment focused on three primary criteria: Economic (Costs, Benefits and Markets), Technical (Infrastructure) and Demographic (Workforce and Jobs Potential). We use these criteria to assess viability of each of the three interconnected focus projects previously mentioned: Blue Economy Innovation Hub, a marine science facility for Noyo Ocean for Marine Science, and Redwood Avenue Extension. We also rank these projects against the previously noted community supported development guidelines as a proxy for gauging political feasibility.

Focus Projects
Blue Economy
The World Bank defines the Blue Economy as “the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, and improved livelihoods and jobs, while preserving the health of marine and coastal ecosystems.” This is an innovative sector encompassing a broad range of activities from traditional maritime ventures to new and emerging industries addressing issues related to climate change, sustainable fisheries, renewable energy, all within the context of healthy marine ecosystems. Conversations with Humboldt Bay Harbor District and the Port of San Diego suggest that coastal industrial land for this purpose is scarce in California and the City of Fort Bragg and Noyo Harbor District are encouraged to begin the process of pre-permitting aquaculture and blue tech facilities.

In May 2021, the City hosted an all-day stakeholder meeting held at various locations to discuss what a blue economy might look like in Fort Bragg. This initial meeting was met with support and curiosity, inspiring the City to generate a regional conversation. The release of EDA’s Build Back Better Regional Challenge created an opportunity and framework from which to discuss a regional partnership. The City coordinated a meeting with leadership from: Noyo Harbor District, Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo Indians, Mendocino College, Noyo Center for Marine Science and Housing Mendocino Coast.

After several meetings, the group decided to hold off on submitting a request for EDA investment understanding that more planning and design work was needed. Nevertheless, the Build Back Better Regional Challenge kicked off a series of meetings that continues today. The first goal City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 30 | P a g e
identified by the group was to work together to host a community-wide conversation – a Learning Festival - in connection with the Blue Economy Symposium coordinated by the City of Fort Bragg & California Sea Grant.

Blue Economy Symposium & Learning Festival
Building on the momentum and network created during the early-stage Blue Economy outreach, with generous funding and organizational support from California Sea Grant, the City of Fort Bragg convened the 2022 Blue Economy Symposium on May 19-20 (Appendix B). The Symposium engaged approximately 100 stakeholders, and involved a series of expert speakers and panelists on a range of relevant topics to the Blue Economy generally, aquaculture specifically, as well as the dynamics and interests of the Fort Bragg/Mendocino Coast community in advancing a Blue Economy economic development initiative. Highlights of the event included keynotes from California State Controller Betty Yee and US Congressman Jared Huffman; a presentation from the Director of the Hawaii Ocean Science & Technology Park at Kona, which represents a thriving blue economy innovation zone; panel sessions with local fishers discussing ongoing and potential future actions and interests in a regenerative blue economy model; presentations from the Port of San Diego and Humboldt Harbor District supporting the market conditions for expansion to business ready sites anywhere along the California coast; and presentations from long-standing and growing aquaculture operators providing inspiration and mentorship; and panels on workforce development and training programs and opportunities.

Along with the focus on aquaculture business, the Symposium included technical sessions on the opportunity and challenges of realizing significant gains at Fort Bragg, including the importance of ocean water intake and outflow infrastructure; critical infrastructure improvements need at Noyo Harbor, and the critical element of workforce training and human resource capacity, in the face of the long-term disinvestment. The sum of the Blue Economy Symposium was a collective awareness of both the opportunities and challenges facing the growth of a regenerative oceanbased economy in Fort Bragg, and a collective interest and enthusiasm for continuing to pursue the potential.

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This two-day symposium was followed by two days of community events to keep the conversations going. The Learning Festival included more than twenty organizations that sponsored activities stretching from Hare Creek Beach (trail stewardship with Mendocino Land Trust) to MacKerricher State Park (Marine Area Protection tide pooling with CA State Parks). A complete list if activities is included with Appendix B).

Blue Economy Innovation Hub
The former mill site offers an ideally positioned opportunity to establish a Blue Economy Innovation Hub, similar to (but scaled down) the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority (NELHA) Ocean Science & Technology Park3. Such a facility could leverage the coastal bluff location, existing coastal industrial zoning, and proximity to key facilities including the City of Fort Bragg waste water treatment plant, the proposed Noyo Center for Marine Science facility, the central business district, and the Noyo Harbor.

For the purposes of this study, the location for the proposed Blue Economy Innovation Hub is just east of the existing city’s waste water treatment facility. Figure 10 illustrates the location of the City of Fort Bragg Wastewater Treatment Plant, Noyo Center for Marine Science parcel, and the proposed Blue Economy Innovation Hub. Given recent ownership transitions on the site, the final location of Blue Economy Innovation Hub may vary.

Market
The blue economy market is robust and expected to grow (NOAA 2021). As stated previously, blue economy opportunities range from traditional maritime activities to new emerging sectors, all managing marine and coastal resources sustainably. In California, the blue economy plays an important role in coastal development throughout our 3,427 miles of coastline, touching businesses and downstream activities, as well as those reliant on the ocean.

Our research suggests there is a latent demand for access to approved and equipped sites for aquaculture businesses on California’s coastline and entrepreneurs that require access to ocean water intake/discharge infrastructure are held back by complex and expensive permitting. Active blue economy incubators in southern California and elsewhere around the Pacific Rim reported 3 http://nelha.hawaii.gov/
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there is more demand than space available for such companies to locate. Establishing core infrastructure including ocean water intake and outflow, power, water, and broadband would drive business recruitment success.

Figure 9. Potential Blue Economy Innovation Hub, Redwood Ave Extension and Noyo Marine Science Center Infrastructure runs.

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Infrastructure and Permitting
Key infrastructure and project permitting steps will need to be taken in order to position the Blue Economy Innovation Hub to be most responsive to market opportunities. Key infrastructure would include:
• Site grading and establishing buildable pads (even to support temporary structures); • Bringing water, sewer, power, and broadband;
• Establishing an ocean water intake/outflow capability.

Along with this infrastructure, permitting the site to provide for rapid (i.e. 3-6 month) timeframes for interested businesses to establish operations would be essential. The State of California, Office of Business and Economic Development (Go-Biz), along with the California Department of Fish & Wildlife provide full-time staff in support of growing the aquaculture industry. Working in coordination with these entities would facilitate project permitting and approvals, and contribute to industry recruitment.

The City of Fort Bragg has retained ASA Analysis and TWB Environmental to develop design concepts and coast estimates for establishing municipal ocean water intake and outflow infrastructure sufficient to bring ~1M gallons per day (gpd) of ocean water onshore for multiple potential uses including: aquariums, aquaculture and desalination. This study is evaluating a range of possible configurations, with rough permitting cost estimates ranging from $2-$5M. The ocean water intake and outflow feasibility study is expected to be complete in Q3, 2022 (Appendices C and D).

Workforce
Workforce talent to support the growth of a Blue Economy Innovation Hub would initially be drawn from the fisheries workforce subsisting out of the remaining activity at Noyo Harbor. Job skills training programs would need to be established in partnership with existing industry, new recruits, and education providers active in the region including Mendocino College, and potentially California Sea Grant and University of California and California State Universities.

Additionally, supporting K-12 school districts to develop innovative science, technology, City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 34 | P a g e
engineering, mathematics (STEM) education will be important training for the next generation of blue economy leaders.

Job Creation
While job creation estimates for the Blue Economy Innovation Hub remain speculative, outreach to existing blue economy incubators in San Diego and the Humboldt Bay indicate a strong market demand for business ready sites. If the City of Fort Bragg is able to establish such a site, the likelihood of attracting new and growing companies within the desired target industries is high.

For reference both the Port of San Diego Aquaculture & Blue Technology Program and the NELHA are impacted for space demand.

Ultimately, job creation will vary depending on many internal and external factors. Some of the internal factors that could affect job creation rates include such variables as product selection, business model and capitalization, technology, permitting and startup timeline, workforce and housing availability among others. Externalities such as market demand, climate change, macroeconomic trends and other forces will also play a role. With such variables in mind, we estimate job creation potential using simple extrapolation yielding 28 jobs in year 1 following completion and pre-permitting of suitable sites, up to 224 jobs in year 4 after opening (Table 5).

Table 5. Blue Economy Innovation Hub job creation estimates over 4 years.

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4
DIRECT JOBS 20 40 80 160
INDIRECT JOBS 8 16 32 64
TOTAL PROJECTED JOBS 28 56 112 224
Noyo Center for Marine Science
An integral part of the Blue Economy Innovation Hub will be the Noyo Center for Marine Science.

The Fort Bragg community identified a marine science and education center as a high priority to anchor initial Mill Site reuse activities and help generate living wage jobs in the community (Siri et al. 2008). This resulted in developing the Strategic Plan for the Noyo Center, including the following goals:

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• Develop the concept of a science center, with a name that would not limit the scope of research and education programs that could utilize the facility. • Define a mission for the center to take full advantage of regional resources and recognize the region’s fishing, lumber, and Pomo tribal legacies. • Use the science center to express the goals of moving from extraction to sustainable economies and embody the multi-faceted values of ocean and coastal ecosystems. This approach recognizes the importance of ecosystems as well as sustainable fishery and forestry practices.
• Establish “green” building design principles that reflect the Center’s goals and adhere to state-of-the-art sustainable design criteria
In June 2006, the Fort Bragg City Council authorized funding for the development of a Noyo Center Detailed Project Program, which included among other attributes primary site features to inform infrastructure planning, facility design requirements and initial capital costs (Siri et al. 2008). Recommendations and cost estimates from the Detailed Project Program are utilized for the current economic development feasibility assessment. As previously noted, the City transferred 11.64 acres of former Mill Site property to the Noyo Center for Marine Science for the purpose of developing a marine science facility (Figure 5) Infrastructure and Permitting
There are multiple potential routes to bring water, sewer, power and broadband to the Noyo Center for Marine Science facility. This study focused on the most direct route linking existing facilities, through the Blue Economy Innovation Hub. Cost estimates obtained for road, curb/gutter, water, sewer, power, lighting and broadband extension from Hwy 1 westward onto the mill site ranged from $1200 to $2700/foot (West & Yost 2011, Duran & Venables 2021). These cost estimates are likely lower than current supply chain and inflation driven cost. It is also unknown if a full road surface, curb/gutter infrastructure will be needed. Given these variables, we used $2500/linear foot to estimate potential infrastructure costs to serve the Blue Economy Innovation Hub and Noyo Ocean Science Center (Table 6).

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As of this writing, we are aware the EDA has awarded a $1M investment to the Noyo Center for Marine Science, for site design, permitting and business planning of a facility on the Noyo Headlands. The expected completion date for this next phase of work is Q2 2024. Outcomes of this work will provide finer grained site design, planning and infrastructure cost estimates, and a business plan for supporting Noyo Center for Marine Science operations and blue economy expansion.

Table 6. Blue Economy Innovation Hub and Noyo Ocean Science Center infrastructure to site cost estimates.

Infrastructure Linear Distance (ft) Cost (@$2500/ft)
Blue Economy Innovation Hub
Road, water, sewer, power, broadband 1700 $4.25M
Ocean Water 600 $1.5M
Total Estimated Cost $5.75M
Noyo Center for Marine Science
Road, water, sewer, power, broadband 1250 $3.1M
Ocean Water 600 $1.5M
Total Estimated Cost $4.6M
Redwood Avenue Extension.

The extension of Redwood Avenue onto the Mill Site provides an opportunity to connect the Central Business District with the interior of the Mill Site, and produce new job generating uses on prime development sites; creating a business corridor or bridge that would help attract visitors to the coastal bluff while providing an easy connection into downtown for services. In order to capture this opportunity, infrastructure and road improvements would need to be extended approximately 1,700 feet from the existing Lyme Redwood Forest Company property westward along Redwood Avenue for approximately 1,700 linear feet (Figure 10). The backbone infrastructure provided along Redwood Avenue would unlock the bluff properties and offer a new hospitality opportunity to serve the community, as well as provide a new venue for weddings and meetings, thus driving tourism revenue.

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Infrastructure
In 2011, West & Yost Associates estimated a cost of $1,100 per linear foot for 1,790-foot extension (West & Yost 2011). This cost did not include wet utilities (water, sewer and storm) in the estimated $1,969,000 total project cost. Duran & Venables, Inc. provided a more recent cost estimate that includes all wet and dry utilities, roadbed and manholes (Duran & Venables 2021).

Starting from Maple Ave and stretching west along Redwood Avenue for 1,790 linear feet at an estimated cost of $2,720 per linear foot, or total estimated project cost $4,868,800.

Hospitality/Conference Center Opportunity Site
By opening approximately 20 acres to visitor services along Redwood Avenue the City has the potential to provide a building envelope of 15 acres that could accommodate a hotel/conference facility of 100 to 200 hotel rooms. Another 5 acres of retail, restaurant and service opportunity space for business along Redwood Avenue that could yield another 54,000 square feet of leasable retail space. 5 acres of land with 25% lot coverage would yield approximately 54,000 of retail space with another 54,000 of office if a 2-story building was well positioned on the land.

Job Creation
Averaging the number of jobs per hotel room and using the industry average of 100 occupied rooms supports approximately 137 direct jobs and another 104 indirect jobs in the community.

The City could reasonably expect to generate 241 jobs for 100 rooms, and 480-jobs for a 200 room hotel. For retail if one job is equal to 600 square feet of retail space our 54,000 square foot projection could yield another 90 jobs for a total capacity reaching 250 to 500 total jobs.

Transient Occupancy Tax Revenue
Total revenue potential for hospitality space of 200 room hotel with a daily rack rate of $250 could yield approximately $50k per night at 100% occupancy or more realistically approximately $32.5k per night at 65% occupancy rate. The goal of an event space of 20,000 to 25,000 square feet integrated into the hotel is to attract weddings and events that increase the occupancy rate above 65% and generate overflow at peak summer months to other hospitality properties in town. Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) of 12% at the 65% occupancy and $32,500 generated could generate approximately $700k/year for the City of Fort Bragg.

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Sales Tax Revenue
Retail sales per square foot is more easily predictable to estimate in a retail mall environment than it is for a sole proprietor retail business in a seasonal tourist trade area. For the purpose of estimating potential revenue sales tax for the City of Fort Bragg RGS assumed $350/ft2 urban area and RGS selected $250/ ft2for a seasonal tourist area for retail space. Therefore, a 54,000 ft2 retail space could generate $13.5M in gross annual receipts. Sale tax rate for Fort Bragg is 8.875%, although the city retains 1% of the total due to State, County and Special District taxes.

Accordingly, our estimates suggest a reasonable annual sales tax revenue increase of $13,500.

Feasibility Assessment
Summarizing the outcomes of the feasibility analysis presented here, each of the three contemplated projects are deemed politically feasible based on the engagements in this study and prior community engaged planning activities (Table 7). While each project will require significant infrastructure investment to realize new tax revenue for the City, the Redwood Avenue Extension is the most likely to generate new tax revenue (TOT, sales and property tax increases) in the nearest term. Establishing the Blue Economy Innovation Hub has the potential to generate significant community benefit in the form of new ventures and employment opportunities, which in turn translates in to increased sales tax revenue to the City. The amount of infrastructure investment and time horizon to realize the jobs growth and tax revenue gains deserve further study. The Noyo Center for Marine Science vision has strong community support, and could be a pivotal catalyst in attracting increased tourism, and human capital to the City and region. The business case for its long-term operations, and ability to contribute meaningfully to the economic vibrancy of the Blue Economy Innovation Hub and the City will be part of the recently funded site analysis and business planning grant. We look forward to the findings from that study to further clarify the potential economic impacts of the Noyo Center for Marine Science vision.

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Table 7. Former Georgia-Pacific Mill Site, economic diversification feasibility assessment, City of Fort Bragg, 2022.

Project Political1Economic2Technical3 Projected Cost4
Job
Growth
Potential5
Notes
Blue Economy
Innovation
Hub
Infrastructure:

Ocean Water
Intake and
Discharge
$2-5M
(permitting)
$12M-$30M
(infrastructure)
100-200
Costs for
permitting and
infrastructure.

Jobs growth from
recruited or
established
firms. Regulatory
uncertainty
around ocean
water intake and
outflow.

Noyo Marine
Science
Center
Infrastructure
$4M-$8M
(infrastructure)
50-100
Anchor project
with potential to
drive visitation.

Dependent on
ocean water
intake/outflow.

Financial
sustainability
remains
uncertain.

Redwood
Avenue
Extension
$4-7M 100-200
Projected jobs
growth
associated with
hotel
opportunity site
and CBD
business
extension along
Redwood
Avenue.
= feasible project based on best currently
available information
= uncertain financial viability or solutions
to known obstacles not identified
1Concept is supported by Fort Bragg City Council and community. 2Concept achievable with some public investment, has feasible path to sustainable revenue generation, and desired job creation outcomes.
3 Technical aspects are well understood with reasonable path to overcome known obstacles. 4Projected public and/or private sector investment required to implement project. 5Potential for new job creation within 5-years of project implementation.

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Conclusion/Next Steps/Considerations
RGS Economic Development Advisors, working in partnership with the City of Fort Bragg leadership team, completed an economic diversification feasibility assessment for reuse of the former Mill Site on the western edge of the City. The feasibility assessment builds from years of community engaged planning, including direct engagements on topics of most current interest including the establishment of a Blue Economy Innovation Hub, realization of the Noyo Center for Marine Science vision and the extension of Central Business District (CBD) amenities along Redwood Avenue to coastal headlands. Our assessment suggests the most direct path to realizing new jobs growth and near-term city tax revenue increases would be the extension of the CBD along Redwood Avenue onto the Mill Site. Over the longer term, establishing critical ocean water intake and outflow infrastructure would enable the realization of both the vision for a Blue Economy Innovation Hub, and the Noyo Center for Marine Science. Both of these visions are compelling, and deserve further inquiry. Resolution of current land use and entitlement issues with property owners will also provide for shorter term realization of long-dreamed of economic reuse of the former mill site. Our professional experience, and working alongside the talented city staff over the past year, suggest that continuing momentum on these transformative visions will be the surest way to realize them in the future. With that in mind, we offer the following list of next steps and recommendations to maintain that momentum:

1. Work with Noyo Harbor District to strengthen harbor infrastructure, implement pilot aquaculture project, improve connectivity between the city and harbor, and continue to develop strategies aimed to advance the region’s blue economy initiatives.

2. Continue feasibility, design and engineering for ocean water intake and outflow infrastructure

3. Establish MOU with Port of San Diego’s Aquaculture & Blue Technology Program.

4. Continue to facilitate regional collaboration with Noyo Ocean Collective, a unique partnership between the City of Fort Bragg, Noyo Harbor District, Sherwood valley band of Pomo, Mendocino College, Noyo Center for Marine Science and West Business Development Center.

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5. Collaborate with Noyo Center for Marine Science to advance their mission to advance ocean conservation through education, exploration and experience.

6. Continue working towards a collaborative development strategy with Mendocino Railway.

7. Pursue all relevant public and private/philanthropic funding opportunities.

8. Support robust STEM education in K-12 curriculum.

9. Collaborate with multiple partners (Mendocino Council of Governments, Noyo Harbor District, Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo Indians) to resolve circulation issues in north harbor and provide connectivity to coastal trail.

10. Evaluate and plan for infill development in and around CBD City of Fort Bragg, Mill Site Economic Diversification Feasibility Study, 2022. 42 | P a g e
References
Duran & Venables. 2021. Redwood Avenue Extension – 1790’ cost estimate.

Hornberger and Worstell Architects. 2019. Mill Site North: Concept Master Plan Presentation. Special Joint City Council/Planning Commission Meeting, 9/21/2019. City of Fort Bragg.

JobsEQ. 2021. Economic Overview Report – City of Fort Brag, CA.

Jones, Marie. 2019. Mill Site Reuse Local Coastal Plan (LCP) Amendment, Utility Capacity Analysis. City of Fort Bragg, Community Development.

Lohr, Susan Allen. 2006. Strategic Plan for the Noyo Center. City of Fort Bragg.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2021. Blue Economy Strategic Plan: 2021- 2025.

Siri, P., S. Lohr, K. Bolton, M. Dooley, P. Gang, N. Fraley, and L. Lovett. 2008. Detailed Project Program for the Noyo Center for Science & Education at Fort Bragg, California. City of Fort Bragg.

West & Yost. 2011. Redwood Avenue Extension – 1790’ cost estimate.

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Appendices
Appendix A. City of Fort Bragg Economic Overview...................................................................................44 Appendix B. May 2022 Blue Economy Symposium and Learning Festival..................................................57 Appendix C. Ocean Water Intake and Outflow Permitting Requirements and Cost Estimates..................63 Appendix D. Ocean Water Intake Design Concepts and Cost Estimate Study............................................64 Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 1 Economic Overview
City of Fort Bragg, CA
Joshua Metz
Senior Advisor, Economic Development
(650) 587-7300 x27
Rgs.ca.gov
Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 2 Demographic Profile........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Employment Trends ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 Wage Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Cost of Living Index ............................................................................................................................................................ 6 Industry Snapshot .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 Occupation Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 Industry Clusters .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 Education Levels ............................................................................................................................................................... 12 FAQ ................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 3 Demographic Profile
The population in the City of Fort Bragg, CA was 7,298 per American Community Survey data for 2014-2018.

The region has a civilian labor force of 3,375 with a participation rate of 59.0%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the City of Fort Bragg, CA, 15.1% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with 32.9% in the nation.

The median household income in the City of Fort Bragg, CA is $43,003 and the median house value is $329,900.

Summary1
Percent Value
City of Fort
Bragg, CA
Mendocino
County,
California California
City of Fort
Bragg, CA
Mendocino
County,
California California
Demographics
Population (ACS) — — — 7,298 87,422 39,148,760
Male 49.6% 49.7% 49.7% 3,623 43,439 19,453,769
Female 50.4% 50.3% 50.3% 3,675 43,983 19,694,991
Median Age2 — — — 39.8 42.8 36.3
Under 18 Years 24.1% 21.6% 23.2% 1,761 18,891 9,073,655 18 to 24 Years 8.8% 7.7% 9.9% 643 6,732 3,856,220
25 to 34 Years 12.2% 11.4% 15.1% 893 9,969 5,904,012
35 to 44 Years 12.3% 11.6% 13.2% 896 10,119 5,185,165
45 to 54 Years 13.6% 12.1% 13.2% 996 10,569 5,155,853
55 to 64 Years 11.7% 15.2% 11.9% 856 13,297 4,658,398
65 to 74 Years 10.3% 13.2% 7.8% 751 11,538 3,061,431
75 Years, and Over 6.9% 7.2% 5.8% 502 6,307 2,254,026
Race: White 80.0% 83.6% 60.1% 5,837 73,121 23,529,068
Race: Black or African American 1.0% 0.6% 5.8% 74 531 2,267,875 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 1.3% 4.1% 0.8% 92 3,591 296,475 Race: Asian 1.2% 1.9% 14.3% 86 1,689 5,604,339
Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 13 170 153,366 Race: Some Other Race 11.9% 4.6% 13.8% 866 4,020 5,415,410 Race: Two or More Races 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% 330 4,300 1,882,227 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 32.2% 24.8% 38.9% 2,350 21,679 15,221,577 Economic
Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over)5

59.0% 58.5% 63.4% 3,375 41,549 19,630,514
Prime-Age Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 25-54)5

73.5% 76.0% 80.9% 2,025 23,231 13,086,124
Armed Forces Labor Force5 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 29 87 127,777
Veterans, Age 18-645 2.8% 4.6% 3.2% 120 2,329 791,255
Veterans Labor Force Participation Rate and Size, Age 18-645 54.2% 69.1% 75.7% 65 1,609 598,956 Median Household Income2,5 — — — $43,003 $49,233 $71,228 Per Capita Income5 — — — $22,741 $27,395 $35,021
Mean Commute Time (minutes)5 — — — 15.9 20.1 29.3
Commute via Public Transportation5 0.8% 0.2% 5.1% 23 90 910,567 Educational Attainment, Age 25-64
No High School Diploma 18.2% 14.2% 16.3% 664 6,220 3,405,116 High School Graduate 37.1% 28.0% 20.4% 1,349 12,295 4,273,011 Some College, No Degree 23.2% 29.1% 21.5% 844 12,808 4,494,430 Associate's Degree 6.5% 8.3% 7.9% 236 3,636 1,653,184
Bachelor's Degree 10.7% 14.8% 21.6% 389 6,510 4,518,374 Postgraduate Degree 4.4% 5.7% 12.2% 159 2,485 2,559,313 Housing
Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 4 Summary1
Percent Value
City of Fort
Bragg, CA
Mendocino
County,
California California
City of Fort
Bragg, CA
Mendocino
County,
California California
Total Housing Units — — — 3,178 40,909 14,084,824
Median House Value (of owner-occupied units)2 — — — $329,900 $356,800 $475,900 Homeowner Vacancy 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0 253 83,128
Rental Vacancy 1.6% 2.1% 3.5% 28 301 217,600
Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 61.9% 40.8% 45.4% 1,719 13,917 5,880,000 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units)5

11.9% 6.3% 7.2% 329 2,138 939,034
Social
Poverty Level (of all people)5 20.7% 18.5% 14.3% 1,490 15,877 5,487,141 Households Receiving Food Stamps/SNAP 14.0% 11.5% 9.1% 388 3,905 1,184,714 Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 0.5% 1.8% 1.5% 34 1,562 606,324 Disconnected Youth3,5 0.0% 5.3% 2.0% 0 238 41,030
Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children)5 57.1% 41.7% 33.2% 966 7,336 2,872,646 Uninsured 10.6% 9.3% 8.5% 766 8,065 3,280,167
With a Disability, Age 18-645 19.8% 14.8% 8.1% 840 7,408 1,971,981 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size5 42.6% 41.7% 41.2% 358 3,092 811,916 Foreign Born 18.6% 13.0% 26.9% 1,357 11,322 10,537,529
Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 15.9% 9.3% 18.1% 1,088 7,679 6,621,028 Source: JobsEQ®

1. American Community Survey 2014-2018, unless noted otherwise

2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties.

3. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force.

4. Census 2019, annual average growth rate since 2009

5. See Rio Arriba errata note in the Data Dictionary.

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 5 Employment Trends
As of 2020Q2, total employment for the City of Fort Bragg, CA was 4,175 (based on a four-quarter moving average).

Over the year ending 2020Q2, employment declined 19.5% in the region.

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2019Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q2.

Wage Trends
The average worker in the City of Fort Bragg, CA earned annual wages of $41,863 as of 2020Q2. Average annual wages per worker increased 4.0% in the region over the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $58,849 in the nation as of 2020Q2.

Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2019Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q2.

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 6 Cost of Living Index
The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 19.1% higher in City of Fort Bragg, CA than the U.S. average.

Cost of Living Information
Annual Average Salary
Cost of Living Index
(Base US) US Purchasing Power
City of Fort Bragg, CA $41,863 119.1 $35,155
Mendocino County, California $41,557 119.1 $34,898
California $71,351 144.1 $49,502
USA $58,849 100.0 $58,849
Source: JobsEQ®
Data as of 2020Q2
Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2020q1, imputed by Chmura where necessary.

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 7 Industry Snapshot
The largest sector in the City of Fort Bragg, CA is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 1,131 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (721 workers) and Accommodation and Food Services (616). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (LQ =

2.14), Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (2.00), and Health Care and Social Assistance (1.86).

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2019Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q2.

Sectors in the City of Fort Bragg, CA with the highest average wages per worker are Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($66,266), Public Administration ($56,924), and Finance and Insurance ($55,691). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Health Care and Social Assistance (+90 jobs), Educational Services (+33), and Construction (+25).

Over the next 5 years, employment in the City of Fort Bragg, CA is projected to contract by 41 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +1.0% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+58 jobs), Construction (0), and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (0).

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 8 Current 5-Year History 5-Year Forecast
NAICS Industry Empl
Avg Ann
Wages LQ
Empl
Change Ann %
Total
Demand Exits Transfers
Empl
Growth
Ann %
Growth
62 Health Care and Social
Assistance
1,131 $47,334 1.86 90 1.7% 603 268 277 58 1.0%
44 Retail Trade 721 $35,351 1.69 -27 -0.7% 425 206 261 -42 -1.2% 72 Accommodation and Food
Services
616 $22,886 1.76 -126 -3.6% 490 219 276 -5 -0.2%
61 Educational Services 334 $43,961 0.97 33 2.1% 142 73 79 -10 -0.6% 23 Construction 257 $45,471 1.06 25 2.0% 126 45 81 0 0.0% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation
156 $24,443 2.00 -9 -1.1% 100 48 59 -7 -0.9%
92 Public Administration 139 $56,924 0.69 22 3.5% 56 26 36 -6 -0.9% 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing
and Hunting 121 $39,513 2.14 -79 -9.6% 57 27 37 -6 -1.0% 48 Transportation and
Warehousing 121 $44,869 0.62 -8 -1.2% 63 27 37 -1 -0.2% 81 Other Services (except
Public Administration) 109 $29,004 0.59 -37 -5.7% 57 28 33 -4 -0.7% 54 Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services 91 $46,263 0.32 13 3.0% 37 14 24 -2 -0.3% 56 Administrative and Support
and Waste Management
and Remediation Services
82 $43,010 0.31 4 1.1% 43 20 27 -3 -0.7%
52 Finance and Insurance 74 $55,691 0.43 -9 -2.2% 30 13 21 -4 -1.0% 31 Manufacturing 60 $50,958 0.18 3 0.9% 26 11 19 -4 -1.4% 51 Information 59 $41,929 0.71 -16 -4.7% 21 10 17 -6 -2.0% 53 Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing
56 $39,916 0.77 7 2.5% 27 13 15 -1 -0.5%
42 Wholesale Trade 34 $50,796 0.21 2 1.0% 15 6 11 -2 -1.3% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil
and Gas Extraction 14 $66,266 0.82 7 13.8% 7 2 5 0 0.2% 22 Utilities 0 n/a 0.00 -2 n/a 0 0 0 0 -0.8%
55 Management of Companies
and Enterprises 0 n/a 0.00 -1 n/a 0 0 0 0 -0.5%
99 Unclassified 0 n/a 0.00 -15 n/a 0 0 0 0 -0.3%
Total - All Industries 4,175 $41,863 1.00 -124 -0.6% 2,220 967 1,295 -41 -0.2% Source: JobsEQ®
Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2019Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns.

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 9 Occupation Snapshot
The largest major occupation group in the City of Fort Bragg, CA is Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations, employing 511 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related Occupations (472 workers) and Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (418). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations (LQ =

2.12), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (1.74), and Community and Social Service Occupations (1.71).

Occupation groups in the City of Fort Bragg, CA with the highest average wages per worker are Legal Occupations ($95,100), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations ($94,500), and Management Occupations ($86,300).

The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.3% among Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations to 7.9% among Personal Care and Service Occupations.

Over the next 5 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the City of Fort Bragg, CA is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +2.1% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Healthcare Support Occupations (+33 jobs) and Community and Social Service Occupations (+9). Over the same period, the highest separation demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (437 jobs) and Sales and Related Occupations (339).

City of Fort Bragg, CA, 2020Q21
Current 5-Year History 5-Year Forecast
SOC Occupation Empl
Mean Ann
Wages2 LQ Unempl
Unempl
Rate
Online
Job Ads
Empl
Change Ann %
Total
Demand Exits Transfers
Empl
Growth
Ann %
Growth
35‑ 0000 Food Preparation and
Serving Related 511 $29,900 1.52 33 7.2% n/a -108 -3.7% 435 175 262 -1 0.0% 41‑ 0000 Sales and Related 472 $39,000 1.17 16 4.9% n/a -15 -0.6% 313 141 198 -26 -1.1% 29‑ 0000 Healthcare Practitioners
and Technical 418 $94,500 1.74 3 1.3% n/a 12 0.6% 125 56 62 6 0.3% 43‑ 0000 Office and
Administrative Support 417 $41,600 0.78 9 3.4% n/a -15 -0.7% 215 98 137 -20 -1.0% 31‑ 0000 Healthcare Support 309 $32,000 1.68 6 3.1% n/a 25 1.7% 246 105 108 33 2.1% 53‑ 0000 Transportation and
Material Moving 285 $37,700 0.82 12 5.5% n/a -8 -0.6% 159 67 107 -15 -1.1% 11‑ 0000 Management 263 $86,300 0.97 3 1.6% n/a -24 -1.7% 109 36 74 -1 -0.1% 25‑ 0000 Educational Instruction
and Library 263 $60,500 1.11 6 3.8% n/a 27 2.2% 113 55 63 -5 -0.4% 47‑ 0000 Construction and
Extraction 190 $56,100 0.98 13 6.6% n/a 23 2.7% 103 30 73 0 0.0% 37‑ 0000
Building and Grounds
Cleaning and
Maintenance
155 $35,300 1.10 8 4.9% n/a -18 -2.1% 93 44 55 -5 -0.7% 39‑ 0000 Personal Care and
Service 141 $33,700 1.24 8 7.9% n/a -15 -2.0% 110 48 63 -1 -0.1% 13‑ 0000 Business and Financial
Operations 137 $61,500 0.59 1 2.0% n/a 9 1.3% 63 19 46 -1 -0.2% 21‑ 0000 Community and Social
Service 124 $51,500 1.71 1 1.7% n/a 31 6.0% 78 22 47 9 1.4% 49‑ 0000
Installation,
Maintenance, and
Repair
107 $46,700 0.67 3 3.2% n/a -10 -1.8% 48 17 35 -3 -0.7% 51‑ 0000 Production 86 $41,900 0.35 5 4.6% n/a -8 -1.8% 45 18 31 -5 -1.1% 27‑ 0000
Arts, Design,
Entertainment, Sports,
and Media
79 $54,500 1.05 1 5.7% n/a -5 -1.2% 38 15 26 -4 -0.9%
Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 10 City of Fort Bragg, CA, 2020Q21
Current 5-Year History 5-Year Forecast
SOC Occupation Empl
Mean Ann
Wages2 LQ Unempl
Unempl
Rate
Online
Job Ads
Empl
Change Ann %
Total
Demand Exits Transfers
Empl
Growth
Ann %
Growth
45‑ 0000 Farming, Fishing, and
Forestry 57 $37,700 2.12 5 6.3% n/a -38 -9.7% 41 11 33 -3 -1.1% 33‑ 0000 Protective Service 56 $63,500 0.61 1 2.3% n/a 5 2.0% 31 15 18 -2 -0.8% 15‑ 0000 Computer and
Mathematical 39 $69,500 0.30 0 n/a n/a 1 0.3% 14 3 11 0 -0.3% 19‑ 0000 Life, Physical, and Social
Science 26 $81,200 0.71 0 n/a n/a 1 0.7% 11 3 9 0 -0.1% 17‑ 0000 Architecture and
Engineering 21 $85,800 0.30 0 n/a n/a 6 6.9% 8 3 6 -1 -0.5% 23‑ 0000 Legal 19 $95,100 0.54 0 n/a n/a 1 0.7% 5 2 4 0 -0.4% Total - All Occupations 4,175 $49,800 1.00 135 4.5% n/a -124 -0.6% 2,408 981 1,468 -41 -0.2% Source: JobsEQ®
Data as of 2020Q2 unless noted otherwise
Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

1. Data based on a four-quarter moving average unless noted otherwise.

2. Wage data are as of 2019 and represent the average for all Covered Employment Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2019Q4, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q2. Wages by occupation are as of 2019 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 11 Industry Clusters
A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the City of Fort Bragg, CA with the highest relative concentration is Health with a location quotient of 1.86. This cluster employs 1,131 workers in the region with an average wage of $50,388. Employment in the Health cluster is projected to expand in the region about 1.0% per year over the next ten years.

Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2019Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 12 Education Levels
Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the City of Fort Bragg, CA is projected to contract 0.2% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 0.6% per year, those requiring a bachelor’s degree are forecast to contract 0.1% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 0.1% per year.

Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2020Q2. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq
Copyright © 2020 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 14 FAQ
What is a location quotient?
A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation.

What is separation demand?
Separation demand is the number of jobs required due to separations—labor force exits (including retirements) and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that separation demand does not include all turnover—it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the separation demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation).

What is a cluster?
A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster.

What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly.

What is NAICS?
The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the “all industry” level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the “sector,” which is the level examined in this report.

What is SOC?
The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories.

All workers are classified into one of over 804 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 22 major groups, 95 minor groups, and 452 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience.

About This Report
This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ®, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable.

However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.

AGENDA OVERVIEW
10:00 am Mendocino Coast College, 1211 Del Mar Drive
12:00 pm Mill Site South, Cypress Street
12:30 pm Town Hall, 363 N Main St.
3:00 pm Thanksgiving Coffee, 19100 S. Harbor Drive
The US Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Agency invested CARES Act funding to help the City of Fort Bragg develop a strategy for economic diversification. Over the past several weeks, City staff has been working with an economic development consultant team to better understand the assets, opportunities and strengths of our region, in order to identify strategic investments that could support the long term economic prosperity of our community.

One of the most exciting areas of opportunity is within an emerging “Blue Economy” industry. This innovative sector encompasses a broad range of activities related to climate change, fisheries, renewable energy, transport and tourism; it is about sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, and nurturing a healthy marine ecosystem.

The objective of today’s meeting is to make stakeholder introductions, to learn from and about one another, and to discuss collaborating on an initial project - a Blue Economy Symposium. The symposium is tentatively scheduled for October as an opportunity to work together to refine ideas and share with the community.

FORT BRAGG & THE BLUE ECONOMY
MEETING AGENDA FRIDAY, MAY 21, 2021

MENDOCINO COMMUNINTY COLLEGE

COAST CENTER
Amanda Xu, Dean of Centers
Katherine Brown, Coast Center

URCHINOMICS
Brian Tsuyoshi Takeda, Founder/CEO
Harry Rappaport, Finance & Strategy
Peter Struffenegger, Operations
Denise MacDonald, Marketing

PRESENTERS
Paula Sylvia, Port of San Diego
Larry Oetker, Humboldt Bay Harbor

NOYO HARBOR DISTRICT
Jim Hurst, Chairman
Richard Shoemaker, Commissioner
Michelle Norvell, Commissioner
Tomessa DeVita, Office Personnel

STAKEHOLDERS AND INFLUENCERS
Joe Caito, Caito Fisheries
Scott Hockett, Noyo Fish Company
Robert Juntz, Ocean Fresh LLC
Paul Katzeff, Thanksgiving Coffee

NOYO CENTER FOR MARINE SCIENCE
Dave Turner, Board President
Sheila Semans, Executive Director

CITY OF FORT BRAGG
Tabatha Miller, City Manager
John Smith, Public Works Director
Sarah McCormick, Housing & ED
Economic Development Ad-Hoc:

Jessica Morsell-Haye, Vice Mayor
Jeremy Logan, Planning Chair
Jay Andreis, Planning Vice Chair
Regional Government Services Team:

Joshua Metz, Economic Development
David Spaur, Economic Development

SHERWOOD VALLEY BAND OF POMO
Melanie Rafanan, Tribal Chair
Tina Sutherland, THPO
Attendees

AGENDA DETAIL
10:00 am Mendocino Coast College, 1211 Del Mar Drive
10:00 to 10:10 Check-In
10:10 to 10:20 Introductory Comments by Sarah McCormick 10:20 to 10:30 Welcome from Amanda Xu, Dean of Centers
10:30 to 11:25 Attendee Introductions
11:25 to 11:45 Blue Economy Symposium Collaboration
11:45 pm Mill Site South Tour
12:30 pm Fort Bragg Town Hall, 363 N Main Street
12:30 Lunch Provided
1:00 to 1:05 Tabatha Miller, City Manager
1:05 to 1:15 Sarah McCormick, Housing & Economic Development Coordinator 1:15 to 1:35 Larry Oetker, Humboldt Bay Harboe, Recreation, and Conservation District 1:40 to 2:10 Paula Sylvia, Port of San Diego’s Aquaculture & Blue Technology 2:10 to 2:40 Brian Tsuyoshi Takeda, Founder Urchinomics Presentation 2:40 to 3:00 Noyo Center for Marine Science Presentation 3:00 pm Thanksgiving Coffee, 19100 S. Harbor Drive
3:00 to 4:00 Coffee and Sweets (Thank you, Thanksgiving Coffee!) 4:00 to 5:00 South Harbor Walking Tour
Collaboration is rarely easy, nor does it follow a straight line. It will take the leadership of all involved to generate goodwill, approach problems with creativity and help develop an individual sense of co-ownership. We all bring different skill sets, expertise and perspectives to the table – and we will need all of us, including all of our resources to cultivate a robust blue economy in Fort Bragg. Thank you to all for participating.

Please contact Sarah McCormick, Housing & Economic Development, City of Fort Bragg for further detail or inquiries. email: [email protected] desk: 707-961-2827 x113 cell: 415-933-1165 

 





 

 

























 









 
 





















 
  



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Appendix C. Saltwater intake and outflow permitting requirements and potential costs.

Feasibility
Components OPA Section Studies Required Study Purpose Cost Range Site M.2.b Alternative site
analysis
To evaluate alternative
sites for plant on land and
intake/discharge in ocean.

Focus is on finding sites
where subsurface intake is
feasible, avoiding sensitive
habitat
$100,000 $250,000
Design M.2.c Conceptual design
of intake and
discharge
configurations
To evaluate alternative
designs that minimize
impacts
$250,000 $500,000
Technology M.2.d(1)(a)
Subsurface
Intake
Geotechnical
sampling for
subsurface intake
To determine the hydraulic
transmissivity of
subsurface/subsea
sediments
$250,000 $500,000
Numeric modeling
for subsurface
intake
To show no impact to
groundwater, seawater
intrusion barriers,
freshwater habitat
$250,000 500,000
Benthic survey To determine presence of
sensitive habitat and
benthic topography
$100,000 $250,000
Life-cycle
energy/cost
analysis
To determine energy/cost
for the entire facility over
its lifetime
$500,000 $1,000,000
M.2.d(1)(c)
Surface
Intake
12-month
ichthyoplankton
study
To estimate mortality of
organisms at the intake and
discharge (if using a surface
intake and discharge
diffuser) or only at the
discharge (if using a
subsurface intake and
discharge diffuser)
$500,000 $1,500,000
M.2.d(2)
Discharge
Numeric modeling
for discharge
design and
dilution
To determine compliance
with the Brine Mixing Zone,
evaluate resuspension of
sediments, and minimize
shear
$250,000 $500,000
Mitigation M.2.e Marine Life
Mortality Report
To estimate the marine life
mortality resulting from
construction and operation
of the facility – intake and
discharge
$100,000 $250,000
Total $2,300,000 $5,250,000
Fort Bragg Blue Economy Intake and Discharge
The City of Fort Bragg (City) is taking the lead to generate a regional conversation and explore how a strategic approach to opportunities within the “Blue Economy” could drive the regional economy - improving livelihoods and wages, while also nurturing healthy marine ecosystems. The City has engaged a consulting team1to evaluate solutions to withdraw ocean water (intake) and return treated wastewater back to the ocean (discharge) for the following uses:
❖ Blue Economy Innovation Center for small, land-based aquaculture facilities and blue tech businesses. ❖ The Noyo Marine Science Center future Noyo Headlands facility (aquariums, research, etc.).

The City’s Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF) and a portion of the adjacent former Georgia Pacific Lumber Mill property is the proposed site for development. The WWTF treats the City’s sanitary wastewater and discharges the treated effluent into the ocean via an offshore multi-port linear diffuser (NPDES No.

CA0023078). The effluent pipe from the WWTF to the multi-port linear diffuser is constructed within a 50-ft wide easement under tide and submerged land. Recent upgrades to the WWTF have phased out the use of large trickling filters, creating sufficient space for the proposed ocean water intake- and discharge-related infrastructure within the footprint of the existing public facility.

The following configurations are being considered:
❖ An offshore surface water intake and pipeline constructed in the existing easement with the treated effluent returned via the existing treated effluent pipeline and multi-port linear diffuser. o This offshore surface water intake configuration is currently the preferred option. It includes the construction of an offshore intake and influent pipe within the existing easement, and routing of ocean water to a wet well onshore. If found feasible, the onshore infrastructure including a raw water wet well, seawater holding tank, treated effluent holding tank, and pumphouse would be constructed within the footprint of the existing WWTF. Offshore infrastructure would be designed and constructed to minimize in-water maintenance and maximize system reliability. o The water intake is expected to have a capacity of approximately 1 million gallons per day (MGD). To optimize system reliability and maintain a maximum 0.5 feet per second (fps) through-slot velocity, the intake would include two approximately 2-foot high and 20-inch diameter drum-shaped intake screens. An influent pipeline approximately 1,500 feet long and 10 inches in diameter would convey the water onshore; a second identical influent pipeline would be constructed alongside to lend system redundancy and facilitate cleaning.
o Two influent pipeline options are being considered.
▪ Pipeline Option 1 would be laid mostly under the seabed and drilled through the bluffs. The conveyance from the intake to the influent wet well would be passive and would not need pumps.

Infrastructure for this system is estimated to cost approximately $30 million. ▪ Pipeline Option 2 would be laid on the seabed and on the bluffs. The approximately 50-foot rise of the bluffs over the sea surface would necessitate influent to be pumped from the intake to the influent wet well. Infrastructure for this system is estimated to cost approximately $12 million.
o Water quality associated with these systems will be compatible with intended Blue Economy uses. 1 ASA Analysis & Communication, Inc. and TWB Environmental Research and Consulting, Inc. o Effluent from Blue Economy uses would be treated as needed (by the users) and discharged to the existing effluent pipe immediately downstream of the existing chlorine contact tank. The Blue Economy effluent and WWTF effluent would mix while in transit within the effluent pipe and discharge via the existing multi-port linear diffuser.
❖ A subsurface intake, if geotechnical conditions are conducive to the construction and operations of such an intake, and water quality supports intended uses.
o Five subsurface intake types are being considered – vertical beach wells, Ranney wells, nearshore and offshore infiltration galleries, slant wells and horizontal wells. o All subsurface intakes would draw from under the seabed. Depending on proximity to the shore, water quality would be more or less impacted by onshore activities and freshwater aquifers. o All subsurface intake water would have lower dissolved oxygen than surface water; water would be aerated prior to use by organisms. Aeration would oxidize other dissolved substances (e.g., iron, manganese) whose oxidized forms could be toxic to organisms. o There are uncertainties with ability to drill through rock at this site. o Scaling other California-based subsurface intake estimates, the system for Fort Bragg could cost approximately $60 million.
o The Amendment to the Ocean Plan addressing desalination facility intakes requires that subsurface intakes be shown to be infeasible prior to considering surface water intakes. This requirement does not apply to the planned Fort Bragg system.
❖ A shoreline surface water intake that directly feeds the raw water wet well, using either passive or traveling screens.
o This system would also need a pipe to convey water from the ocean side of bluffs to the influent wet well. The pipeline would need to be drilled through the bluffs and water to flow via gravity, or pipeline to be laid on the bluffs and water pumped into the influent wet well. o Insufficient water depth at the shoreline could make this configuration less viable. ❖ An offshore surface water intake in a ‘new’ area, instead of the existing easement. o The relative merits of constructing within the existing easement to reduce additional impacts or acquiring a new easement are yet to be determined.
o A ‘new’ area would reduce the likelihood of potential recirculation of the WWTF effluent but could introduce other water quality issues.
❖ A shoreline discharge.
o The WWTF was originally constructed with a shoreline discharge. The outfall was subsequently extended offshore to meet Ocean Plan requirements. It is unlikely that a shoreline discharge would be allowable for the Blue Economy effluent.
❖ A new dedicated seawater effluent pipe and outfall in a ‘new’ area away from the existing easement. o Comingling the Blue Economy effluent with the WWTF effluent lends many advantages; separating them does not provide any advantages. This option is unlikely to be carried forward for its own merits.

The concepts presented here are preliminary and will be modified based on agency input and feasibility of implementation.

Figure 1. Sketch of the Plan View of the Proposed Intake and Discharge System Figure 2. Sketch of the Transverse View of the Proposed Intake Additional information on regional effort to establish a Blue Economy on the Mendocino Coast may be found at:
www.visitfortbraggca/events or www.city.fortbragg.com/departments/city-manager/economic-development Sarah McCormick, Assistant to City Manager, [email protected] Dan Giza, ASA Analysis & Communication, Inc., [email protected]