Economic Impacts - Elevativ Noyo Ocean Science Ctr Report 25JUL24 v2 — Fort Bragg City Council, September 23, 2024

Preliminary Market Potential of
Noyo Center for Marine Science’s
Proposed New Ocean Science Center
July 25, 2024
Prepared by: Elevativ LLC in collaboration with EHDD
Table of Contents
2 Section Page
Number
Executive Summary 3
Introduction and Assumptions 22
Baseline Review of Noyo Center for Marine Science 26
Overview of Site Context 31
Project Description 34
Market Context 37
Resident Market 39
Tourist Market 48
Local Attractions & Competitive Context 59
Preliminary Review of Comparable Projects 70
Preliminary Market and Economic Potential 77
3 Executive Summary
Introduction
Elevativ was hired by EHDD to assist them and Noyo Center for Marine Science (Noyo) in understanding the preliminary market and economic potential of the proposed new Ocean Science Center (OSC) as part of Noyo’s larger operation in Fort Bragg.

This work was completed remotely (does not include site visit) as part of an iterative planning effort with EHDD and Noyo and its consultants, including Don Perkins.

This report document includes the following sections:

1. Assumptions

2. Baseline Review

3. Project Description

4. Overview of Site Context

5. Market Context, including review of resident and tourist markets, and competitive context

6. Preliminary Review of Comparable Projects

7. Preliminary Market and Economic Potential, including recommended next steps 4 About Noyo Center for Marine Science
5 • Mission: To advance ocean conservation through education, exploration and experience.
• 3 sites
• $5 admission for Discovery Center
• Serve approximately 30,000 people per year through on-site activities, programs both on and off site, outreach, etc.
• 154 memberships
• 2024 operating budget of approximately $2.2 million includes design fees, construction of first warehouse on site, etc.; 2023 expenses were $845,000 • “The Noyo Center has a three-pronged approach to development, supporting an innovative research program, creating an integrated education program and building a world-class facility for research, education and tourism. Our research and education programs support activities that engage the community, the visitor, and the scientist in order to inspire connection, communication, collaboration and creativity. Our future Ocean Science Center facility will be a dynamic environment that showcases sustainability through its landscape, buildings and operations. This campus will unfold from the land with one element leading naturally to another as it grows and changes over time, transforming the former lumber mill site.” Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science.

Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science and Elevativ.
6 Sites Map
Fort Bragg
●Walking distance between the
Discovery Center and Crow’s
Nest: 22 minutes
●Driving distance between the
Discovery Center and Crow’s
Nest: 6 minutes
●Driving distance between the
Discovery Center and Field
Station: 4 minutes
The Discovery Center
The Crow’s Nest
Noyo Center
Field Station
Future Ocean Science
Center
Proposed OSC Concept and Program of Spaces
7 Source: EHDD.
• Located on approximately 17-acre bluff site on
coast adjacent to existing Crow’s Nest site and
adjacent to future blue economy development,
research areas and marine mammal
rehabilitation areas by Noyo
• OSC total gross square feet of approximately
25,000
• Includes 13,300 SF of exhibit areas
• Visitor experience as described by EHDD in July
2024
• Aquarium tanks
• Touch tank
• Multimedia exhibits
• Betty blue whale skeleton
• Café
• Commercial kitchen for facility rentals,
cooking demonstrations and to serve
café
• Retail
• Education spaces / classrooms
• Community room
• Outdoor wetland exhibits
Resident Market Population
30, 60, 120 minute drive time from site
8 Note: The Resident Market Area is defined as the area within a 2-hour drive of the site. The area is further subdivided into the Primary Market Area, which includes the area within a 30-minute drive, the Secondary Market Area, which includes the area within a 30- to 60-minute drive, and the Tertiary Market Area, which includes the area within a 60- to 120-minute drive of the site.

Sources: ESRI and Elevativ
Market Area 2010 2023 2028
Percent
Change,
2023 to
2028
Primary Market Area 15,140 14,750 14,670 -0.5%
Secondary Market Area 3,880 3,910 3,860 -1.3%
Tertiary Market Area 96,140 101,030 100,950 -0.1%
Total Resident Market Area 115,160 119,690 119,480 -0.2% City of Fort Bragg 7,231 6,745 6,664 -1.2%
Mendocino County 87,841 91,534 91,467 -0.1%
State of California 37,253,956 39,877,642 40,140,276 0.7% United States 308,745,538 337,470,185 342,640,129 1.5%
School Age Children
30, 60, 120 minute drive time from site
9 Market Area
Estimated,
2023
Projected,
2028
Percent
Change,
2023 to
2028
Primary Market Area
Ages 0 - 4 (Daycare) 700 700 0.0%
Ages 5 - 10 (Pre K through Grade 5) 800 800 0.0%
Ages 11 - 13 (Grades 6 to 8) 400 400 0.0%
Ages 14 - 17 (Grades 9 to 12) 500 500 0.0%
Subtotal, Primary Market Area 2,400 2,400 0.0%
Secondary Market Area
Ages 0 - 4 (Daycare) 100 100 0.0%
Ages 5 - 10 (Pre K through Grade 5) 200 200 0.0%
Ages 11 - 13 (Grades 6 to 8) 100 100 0.0%
Ages 14 - 17 (Grades 9 to 12) 100 100 0.0%
Subtotal, Secondary Market Area 500 500 0.0%
Market Area
Estimated,
2023
Projected,
2028
Percent
Change,
2023 to
2028
Tertiary Market Area
Ages 0 - 4 (Daycare) 6,100 6,200 1.6%
Ages 5 - 10 (Pre K through Grade 5) 7,700 7,500 -2.6%
Ages 11 - 13 (Grades 6 to 8) 3,900 3,900 0.0%
Ages 14 - 17 (Grades 9 to 12) 5,100 5,100 0.0%
Subtotal, Tertiary Market Area 22,800 22,700 -0.4%
Total Resident Market Area
Ages 0 - 4 (Daycare) 6,900 7,000 1.4%
Ages 5 - 10 (Pre K through Grade 5) 8,700 8,500 -2.3%
Ages 11 - 13 (Grades 6 to 8) 4,400 4,400 0.0%
Ages 14 - 17 (Grades 9 to 12) 5,700 5,700 0.0%
Total, Resident Market Area 25,700 25,600 -0.4%
Source: ESRI and Elevativ
Mendocino County Overnight Visitors’ Origin
10 Source: Placer.ai
• 1 million visitors in
2023 representing 2.3
million nights
• Average length of stay
of 2.3 nights
Mendocino
County
Overnight
Visitors in 2023
Top Destinations
within the
County
11 Source: Placer.ai
• Fort Bragg’s zip
code area had the
highest number of
overnight visitors
in 2023 of
approximately
330,000
Competitive
Context
30, 60, 120
minute drive
time
➔16 attractions
60 MINUTES
Noyo Ocean
Science Center
120 MINUTES
12 30 MINUTES
Confusion Hill
Lake County Historic Courthouse
Museum
Anderson Valley
Historical Society
Grace Hudson Museum
Cloverdale History
The Dolphin Center
Gallery
Gualala Arts
Center
B Bryan
Preserve
Kelley House
Museum
Mendocino Coast
Botanical Gardens
Mendocino Art Center
Source: ESRI, Google,
& Elevativ
Larry Spring Museum
Noyo Ocean
Science Center
Mendocino Coast Model
Railroad & Historical Society
Guest House Museum
The Skunk Train &
Rail Bikes
Noyo Center for Marine Science
The Crow’s Nest
Noyo Center Marine
Field Station
Case Studies Reviewed
(clockwise from top left: Cabrillo, Hatfield, Living Coast, Ocean Institute, Seymour & Turtle Bay) 13 Summary Review of Case Studies
• 60-minute drive time population ranges from 55,400 at Hatfield to over 10 million at Cabrillo and total average of 3.6 million and median of 2.6 million; and 19,100 for the OSC. • Overnight tourist/visitor markets are large for all yielding total average of close-in overnight visitors of 778,000 and median of 746,000; and approximately 750,000 for the region in and around Fort Bragg. • Size in square feet (SF) ranges from approximately 20,000 SF at Seymour to 44,000 at Cabrillo and total average of 33,000 SF and median of 34,000 SF; and 25,000 SF for the OSC. • In 2023, annual attendance ranged from approximately 34,400 at Seymour to 272,900 at Turtle Bay and total average of 135,000 and median of 112,000.
• Current summer 2024 adult admission price ranges from $5 at Hatfield to $20 at both Living Coast and Turtle Bay, and total average of $13 and median of $14. • Current summer 2024 family membership price ranges from $75 at Cabrillo to $150 at Ocean Institute, and total average of $110 and median of $105.
• Market penetration of annual attendance of the corresponding 60-minute drive time populations ranges from 1.2% at Ocean Institute to 276% at Hatfield, with total average of 66%, weighted average of 3.7% and median of 2.0%.
14 Summary Review of Three 501c3 Case Studies
• Total revenues ranged from $3.4 million at Living Coast to $13 million at Turtle Bay, and total average of $6.8 million and median of $4.0 million.
• Earned revenues ranged from $702,000 at Living Coast to $1.9 million at Turtle Bay, and total average of $1.3 million and median of $1.4 million.
• Earned revenue as a percentage of total revenues ranged from 15% at Turtle Bay to 37% at Ocean Institute, and total average of 24%, weighted average of 20% and median of 20%. • Operating expenses ranged from $2.3 million at Living Coast to $7.4 million at Turtle Bay, and total average of $4.7 million and median of $4.4 million.
• Coverage of operating expenses by earned revenues ranged from 26% at Turtle Bay to 34% at Ocean Institute, and total average of 30%, weighted average of 21% and median of 30%. • Operating expenses per square foot of exhibit building ranged from $104 at Living Coast to $218 at Turtle Bay, and total average of $151, weighted average of $106 and median of $130. 15 Preliminary Operating Potential Assumptions
• Proposed OSC of indoor 25,000 GSF building including aquarium exhibits, touch tank and interactive multi-media exhibits, as well as outdoor wetland exhibit areas, as conceived by EHDD and described herein. As planning by the design team continues, the operating potential and cash flow analysis for the OSC will need to be revisited and revised. • Location and site context of the OSC overlooking the Pacific Ocean and adjacent to Noyo’s planned blue economy, research and marine mammal rehabilitation development. • Operating hours of 7 days per week during peak summer months from 9 AM to 5 PM with potential to open earlier or later. During non-peak months open 5 days per week, with potential to close an additional day per week during slow weeks and extend hours as needed to accommodate school visits and/or special events.
• Size and demographic profile of the Resident Markets and tourists to Fort Bragg region. • Operating experience of regional attractions and the competitive context for the OSC and its components.
• Operational experience of comparable marine science centers nationally. • Adult general admission price of $20.00 in current dollars with discounts for seniors, military, and children. School groups, OSC members, corporate sponsors, children under 3, VIPs and other complimentary visitors are assumed to enter free of charge. In addition, there are additional discounts available by assumed couponing for both residents and tourists assumed at -15% of the achieved per capita ticket revenue. 16 Preliminary Operating Potential Assumptions (continued) • OSC will seek out a qualified and experienced café operator. • The size and design of each component of the proposed OSC will serve to create a high quality, stimulating attraction with broad-based audience appeal and a distinctive image. The entrance to the OSC campus will be highly visible and well signed.
• OSC will be competently and effectively managed as part of the larger Noyo Marine Science Center operation. An aggressive promotional and marketing campaign will be developed and implemented.

The program will be targeted to prime resident and visitor markets. The admission price for the OSC will be consistent with the educational, entertainment and recreational value offered, and in line with current attraction admissions prices for other comparable destinations. • There will be no physical constraints to impede visitors to the OSC, such as major construction activity. Changes in economic conditions such as a major recession, public health (such as the Covid- 19 pandemic), political or major environmental problems that would negatively affect operations and visitation will not occur in the near future and are not assumed in this market and economic analysis. • Current proposed program of areas and approximately 25,000 SF for the Museum can accommodate low through high range stable year visitors on a peak day. During peak days, if needed, the OSC can undertake strategies to potential mitigate bottlenecks and visitor throughput issues utilizing such mitigation efforts such as timed-ticketing and/or longer hours of operation. 17 Preliminary Visitation Potential
• Preliminary visitation potential for the OSC in a stable year of operations ranges from a low of 60,000 to a high of 120,000 visitors, and a mid-range of 90,000 visitors based on data available at the time of this report.
• Estimated 24% of visitors are from the Resident Market and 76% from the tourist market, or outside the Resident Market area.
• Stable year is expected to occur in Year 3 after opening based on the experience of other museum projects.

Source: Elevativ.

Stabilized Year in
Current Dollars

EARNED REVENUE
Admissions Revenue $1,027,000
OSC Membership Revenue $59,000
Café Net Sales Revenue to OSC $97,000
Gross Retail Revenue $284,000
Facility Rental Net Revenue $90,000
Day Camp Revenue $150,000
Miscellaneous Revenue $51,000

TOTAL EARNED REVENUE
Rounded to Nearest 1,000 $1,758,000

EXPENSES
Personnel Expenses $995,000
Cost of Goods Sold $142,000
Advertising, Printing & Publications $113,000
Administrative $187,000
Exhibits, Events & Programs $135,000
Occupancy $314,000
Subtotal Operating Expenses $1,886,000
Capital Reserves 1/ $57,000

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
Rounded to Nearest 1,000 $1,943,000
Net Income from Operations Before Non-Earned /
Contributed Revenues ($185,000)
Non-Earned / Contributed Revenue Requirement for
Breakeven Operations 2/ $185,000
Net Income from Operations After Non-Earned /
Contributed Revenue Requirement $0
Operating Potential Summary
• The proposed OSC will provide a wonderful opportunity for Noyo to:
• Expand Noyo’s public-facing offerings within Fort Bragg • Provide a world-class visitor experience that is both engaging and fun, as well as educational • Expose new audiences to Noyo’s mission and vision and garner future donor support • Noyo with the OSC elevates and transforms Noyo to a stronger operating profile with world-class visitor experience offerings.
• Creates an opportunity for Noyo to serve and attract larger and broader audiences and perform at a higher level overall.
• Creates opportunities for Noyo to attract additional donors and sponsors. • OSC has the potential to sustain and grow its attendance potential if the OSC is refreshed every couple years and offers dynamic, changing exhibits and programs. • Overall, the proposed OSC will be a welcome addition to the conservation, cultural and educational landscape of Fort Bragg benefiting the local community, region and Mendocino County as a whole.
20 Recommended Next Steps
• The preliminary OSC staffing profile and operating expenses should be reviewed by Noyo as it relates to its larger proposed operation and organization as developed by Don Perkins and team.
• As the OSC’s planning progresses, continue to revise the cash flow analysis to reflect the latest plans for the project and for the Noyo organization as a whole. 21 22
Introduction and
Assumptions
Introduction
Elevativ was hired by EHDD to assist them and Noyo Center for Marine Science in understanding the preliminary market and economic potential of the proposed new Ocean Science Center as part of Noyo’s larger operation in Fort Bragg.

This work was completed remotely (does not include site visit) as part of an iterative planning effort with EHDD and Noyo and its consultants, including Don Perkins.

This report document includes the following sections:

1. Assumptions

2. Baseline Review

3. Project Description

4. Overview of Site Context

5. Market Context, including review of resident and tourist markets, and competitive context

6. Preliminary Review of Comparable Projects

7. Preliminary Market and Economic Potential, including recommended next steps 23 Assumptions
In preparing this report of the preliminary business plan of Noyo Center for Marine Science’s proposed Ocean Science Center (OSC), the following assumptions were made. This study is qualified in its entirety by these assumptions.

1. The size and design of the proposed OSC will serve to create a high quality, stimulating attraction with broad-based audience appeal and a distinctive image. The entrances to the OSC will be highly visible and well signed.

2. The OSC will be competently and effectively managed by Noyo Center for Marine Science. An aggressive promotional and marketing campaign will be developed and implemented. The program will be targeted to prime resident and visitor markets. The admission price for the OSC will be consistent with the educational, entertainment and recreational value offered, and in line with current attraction admissions prices for other comparable destinations.

3. There will be no physical constraints to impede visitors to OSC, such as major construction activity.

Changes in economic conditions such as a major recession, public health (such as the Covid-19 pandemic), political or major environmental problems that would negatively affect operations and visitation will not occur in the near future and are not assumed in this market and economic analysis. 24 Assumptions (continued)

4. Every reasonable effort has been made in order that the data contained in this study reflect the most accurate and timely information possible and it is believed to be reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Elevativ from its independent research efforts, general knowledge of the industry, and consultations with the EHDD and Noyo Center for Marine Science and its consultants. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, its agents and representatives, or any other data source used in the preparation of this study. No warranty or representation is made that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved. There will usually be differences between forecasted or projected results and actual results because events and circumstances usually do not occur as expected. Other factors not considered in the study may influence actual results.

5. Possession of this report does not carry with it the right of publication. This report will be presented to third parties in its entirety and no abstracting of the report will be made without first obtaining permission of Elevativ LLC, which consent will not be unreasonably withheld.

6. This report may not be used for any purpose other than that for which it was prepared. Neither all nor any part of the contents of this study shall be disseminated to the public through advertising media, news media or any other public means of communication without the prior consent of Elevativ LLC.

7. This report was prepared from May 2024 through the date of this report. It represents data available at that time.
25 26
Baseline Review
About Noyo Center for Marine Science
27 • Mission: To advance ocean conservation through education, exploration and experience.
• 3 sites
• $5 admission for Discovery Center
• Serve approximately 30,000 people per year through on-site activities, programs both on and off site, outreach, etc.
• 154 memberships
• 2024 operating budget of approximately $2.2 million includes design fees, construction of first warehouse on site, etc.; 2023 expenses were $845,000 • “The Noyo Center has a three-pronged approach to development, supporting an innovative research program, creating an integrated education program and building a world-class facility for research, education and tourism. Our research and education programs support activities that engage the community, the visitor, and the scientist in order to inspire connection, communication, collaboration and creativity. Our future Ocean Science Center facility will be a dynamic environment that showcases sustainability through its landscape, buildings and operations. This campus will unfold from the land with one element leading naturally to another as it grows and changes over time, transforming the former lumber mill site.” Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science.
2023 & 2022 Noyo
Marine Science
Center and Shop
Visitation Counts
28 2022
Total Visitors Museum
Visitors
Percent
Museum Vis.

Of Total Vis.

Guests*
January 1,227 494 40% 961
February 1,826 664 36% 1,898
March 2,498 1,325 53% 2,231
April 1,889 941 50% 2,711
May 1,728 601 35% 2,710
June 4,136 1,155 28% 3,379
July 6,477 1,267 20% 6,228
August 4,174 981 24% 5,073
September 2,029 749 37% 3,886
October 1,522 414 27% 3,404
November 1,894 378 20% 2,830
December 1,762 519 29% 2,403
TOTALS: 31,162 9,488 30% 37,714
*Noyo did not count visitors that only visited the exhibit space in 2022 2023
Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science.

Board of Directors
Programs Director
(Unfilled)
Education
Education
Coordinator
(Sue C.)
Bilingual Educator
(unfilled)
Research
Lead Scientist
(unfilled)
Marine Technology
Program Coordinator
(Crans)
Marine Technician
(unfilled)
Marine Mammals
Stranding
Coordinator
(Sarah)
Specimen Collection
Manager
(Richard)
Development
Director
(Michael H)
Development and
Communications
Development
Operations Associate
(unfilled)
Comms/Social media
Associate
(unfilled)
Operations and
Manager
(Lynne)
Administration
Bookkeeper
(Debra)
Volunteer
Coordinator
(Wendi F.)
Accountant
(Chris, contract)
Facilities
Interpretive Facilities
Manager
(Trey)
Retail Clerk/Docents
(Leah &
Jackie)
Field Station Manager
(Richard)
Executive Director
(Sheila)
Science Advisory
Committee
Noyo Center for Marine Science
Next Phase Organization Chart
Sept 2023
Grey = part time position; light blue = unfilled; green= volunteer; purple = contract worker Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science. 29 Board of Directors
Director of Science
and Programs
Museums and
Exhibits
Collections
Manager
Exhibit Manager
Aquarist
Marine Science,
Research, and
Technology
Marine Research
Lead Scientist
Stranding
Coordinator
Research
Coordinator
Restoration
Coordinator
Marine Technology
Manager
Lead Engineer
Marine Tech
Director of
Education
Education
K-12 Manager
Community
Programs Manager
Special Programs
Manager
Development
Director
Development
Development
Operations
Manager
Membership
Manager
Special Events
Manager
Volunteer Manager
Development
Associate
Communications
Director
Communications
Communications
Associate
Social
Media/Online
Coordinator
Director of Finance
Finance
Controller
Bookkeeper
Director of
Operations
Administration
Human Resources
Manager
Administrative
Assistant
Facilities
Facilities Manager
Retail Operations
Manager
Executive Director
Future Noyo Center for Marine Science
Ocean Science Center Organization Chart
Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science.
30 31
Overview of Site
Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science and Elevativ.
32 Sites Map
Fort Bragg
●Walking distance between
the Discovery Center and
Crow’s Nest: 22 minutes
●Driving distance between
the Discovery Center and
Crow’s Nest: 6 minutes
●Driving distance between
the Discovery Center and
Field Station: 4 minutes
The Discovery Center
The Crow’s Nest
Noyo Center
Field Station
Future Ocean Science
Center
33 Proposed OSC Site: Former Mill Site Reuse and Crow’s Nest Site *Site is planned to include large mixed use development including attractions and new hotels etc.

Source: https://cityfortbragg.prod.govaccess.org/departments/city-manager/former-mill-site-reuse 34 Project Description
OSC Project Description
Source: Noyo Center for Marine Science
35 “The future headlands facility, the Ocean Science Center, will create a physical space for researchers, students, families and visitors to explore the Mendocino coast and investigate the dynamic relationship between humans and the natural world. • Physical features will include:
o Marine Research laboratories, office space and a marine mammal triage center. o Public interpretive area that includes an aquarium, tidal exhibits, auditorium and cafe. o An exhibition space featuring a 73-foot articulated blue whale skeleton and other natural history exhibits. o 11.5-acres of restored site that connects to shoreline and ocean habitats, the California Coastal Trail, and 90-acres of coastal park.
o A campus designed for net-zero energy and zero carbon footprint. • The 11.5 acre Ocean Science Center site is situated adjacent to recently protected coastal lands. Together the Ocean Science Center and Noyo Headlands Park will lead the redevelopment of a 400 acre former timber mill site spanning more than three miles of Fort Bragg’s waterfront.
• The site is ideal for interpreting a spectacular array of marine and terrestrial habitats. Colleges, universities, and other agencies throughout the region are eager to conduct research in this location due to the abundant and diverse species assemblages supported by:
• Oceanographic features resulting in significant ecosystem productivity in zones of upwelling, river-ocean interface, eddy formation (the large Mendocino Eddy), and two large underwater canyons (Noyo Canyon and Vizcaino Canyon). • A diversity of accessible marine substrates (rocky benches, surge channels, sand and cobble beaches, many off shore monuments).”
Proposed OSC Concept and Program of Spaces
36 Source: EHDD.
• Located on approximately 17-acre bluff site on
coast adjacent to existing Crow’s Nest site and
adjacent to future blue economy development,
research areas and marine mammal
rehabilitation areas by Noyo
• OSC total gross square feet of approximately
25,000
• Includes 13,300 SF of exhibit areas
• Visitor experience as described by EHDD in July
2024
• Aquarium tanks
• Touch tank
• Multimedia exhibits
• Betty blue whale skeleton
• Café
• Commercial kitchen for facility rentals,
cooking demonstrations and to serve
café
• Retail
• Education spaces / classrooms
• Community room
• Outdoor wetland exhibits
37 Market Context
Market Context
60, 120 minute drive
time from site
60 MINUTES
Noyo Center for
Marine Science
50 MILES
120 MINUTES
YEAR

TOTAL POPULATION
0-60
MINUTE
DRIVE
60-120
MINUTE
DRIVE 50 MILES

CITY OF
FORT
BRAGG

MENDOCINO
COUNTY
2010 19,393 100,591 93,843 7,231 87,841
2020 19,379 105,428 97,377 6,983 91,601
2023 19,051 105,682 97,350 6,745 91,534
2028 18,909 105,553 97,180 6,664 91,467

MENDOCINO COUNTY
38 Source: ESRI and Elevativ
39 Resident Market
Resident Market
30, 60, 120 minute
drive time from site
60 MINUTES
Noyo Ocean
Science Center

FORT BRAGG
120 MINUTES

MENDOCINO COUNTY
40 30 MINUTES
Source: ESRI and Elevativ • The Resident Market Area for the proposed OSC is defined as the area
within a 2-hour drive of the site.
• The area is further subdivided into
the Primary Market Area, which
includes the area within a 30-
minute drive, the Secondary Market
Area, which includes the area within
a 30- to 60-minute drive, and the
Tertiary Market Area, which
includes the area within a 60- to
120-minute drive of the site.

Source: ESRI and Elevativ
Resident Market
Zoom in of 60 minute
drive time from site
41 Resident Market
Zoom in of 30 minute
drive time from site
42 Source: ESRI and Elevativ
Resident Market Population
30, 60, 120 minute drive time from site
43 Note: The Resident Market Area is defined as the area within a 2-hour drive of the site. The area is further subdivided into the Primary Market Area, which includes the area within a 30-minute drive, the Secondary Market Area, which includes the area within a 30- to 60-minute drive, and the Tertiary Market Area, which includes the area within a 60- to 120-minute drive of the site.

Summary of Findings of Perception Study of Visitors to County • The vast majority of survey respondents who visited Mendocino County are Californians, mainly from Northern California.
• Mendocino’s coastal area was most visitors’ main destination. • Seasonality is well distributed; Spring and Summer are the most visited seasons, with just slightly fewer in Fall, with far fewer in Winter.
• Nearly 94% of visitors rate their experience in Mendocino County as highly enjoyable, and most like its scenic beauty and beaches. • Mendocino County offers visitors familiarity and a get-way place, as well as being uncrowded, and its outdoor activities and open spaces. • Two-thirds visited mainly for pleasure/vacation.
• While in the area they dined in restaurants, were sightseeing, engaged in outdoor recreation and shopped.
• Almost all, 97% stayed overnight in the County, and 8 in 10 stayed in hotel type lodging. • 99% of visitors spent money in Mendocino, averaging $494 per group per day. 50 Source: Mendocino County Resident & Visitor Profile & Perception Study by TAG for Visit Mendicino County, January 2023.

Summary of Findings of Perception Study of Visitors to County (continued)
• 90% were traveling with others on their trip, of which 60% were couples and 22% families. Groups averaged 2.8 persons.
• Respondents skewed older with a median age of 61.
• While 76% are married, 57% have no children at home.
• 65% of respondents are female and 34% are male.
► Visitors median annual household income is $111,200; 55% report income of $100,000+ • When traveling visitors seek to minimize environment impact and want authentic destination experiences.
• Regarding Mendocino County tourism, visitors rate that tourism contributes economic benefits and offers great amenities.
• As a destination, visitors like Mendocino County’s great outdoors, local restaurants and its protection of the environment.
51 Source: Mendocino County Resident & Visitor Profile & Perception Study by TAG for Visit Mendicino County, January 2023.

Summary of Findings of Perception Study of Visitors to County (continued)
• The high share of visitors from Northern California, suggests the opportunity to broaden reach to Central California and Southern Oregon, especially to potential visitors residing in non-coastal areas.
• Related to that is the high share of visitors who like the area for their familiarity with it. As a result, they use past experience more than media/resources for trip planning. • Those residing farther away who have not visited before are more likely to use media with messaging generated by Visit Mendocino County.
• Visitors want “authentic experiences;” often meaning places area residents frequent. The area’s music and arts can offer visitors these experiences. • Visitors are thinking about and concerned with environment protection and minimizing negative tourism impacts.
• Related massaging may encourage and attract like-minded visitors to Mendocino County.
52 Source: Mendocino County Resident & Visitor Profile & Perception Study by TAG for Visit Mendicino County, January 2023.

Mendocino County
Economic Impact of Travel 2023
53 Source: VisitCA.

Mendocino County Overnight Visitors’ Origin
54 Source: Placer.ai
• 1 million visitors in
2023 representing 2.3
million nights
• Average length of stay
of 2.3 nights
Mendocino
County
Overnight
Visitors in 2023
Top
Destinations
within the
County
55 Source: Placer.ai
• Fort Bragg’s zip
code area had the
highest number of
overnight visitors
in 2023 of
approximately
330,000
Source: Vrbo & AirBnB
Tourist Market
Fort Bragg
June 2024
●90 listings on Vrbo
●167 listings on AirBnB
56 Short Term
Vacation Rentals
57 Source: Dean Runyan Associates.
58 Fort Bragg Tourism Tax Revenue and Seasonality
Source: City of Fort Bragg.
59 Competitive Context
Competitive
Context
30, 60, 120
minute drive
time
➔16 attractions
60 MINUTES
Noyo Ocean
Science Center
120 MINUTES
60 30 MINUTES
Confusion Hill
Lake County Historic Courthouse
Museum
Anderson Valley
Historical Society
Grace Hudson Museum
Cloverdale History
The Dolphin Center
Gallery
Gualala Arts
Center
B Bryan
Preserve
Kelley House
Museum
Mendocino Coast
Botanical Gardens
Mendocino Art Center
Source: ESRI, Google,
& Elevativ
Larry Spring Museum
Noyo Ocean
Science Center
Mendocino Coast Model
Railroad & Historical Society
Guest House Museum
The Skunk Train &
Rail Bikes
Noyo Center for Marine Science
The Crow’s Nest
Noyo Center Marine
Field Station
Source: ESRI, Google, Placer
& Elevativ
Competitive
Context
Within 60 minute
drive time
➔Noyo Center for
Marine Science
Locations
61 Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
Noyo Center for Marine Science Fort Bragg N/A 7,100 $5 (it was free prior to 2024)
*Educational Tours:

Blue Whale (1 hr) $75 per
group
Supportive Monthly:

Blue Whale $100
Sea Star. $50
Orca $25
Bull Kelp $15
Annually:

Blue Whale $1200
Sea Star. $600
Orca $300
Bull Kelp $180
(memberships are annual
or monthly donations)
Live nature feeds
Gift shop
Newsletter
Marine Science Center
Exhibits
Noyo Center Marine Field Station Fort Bragg 4 8,300* *Under development (research hub for staff)
*Same as Noyo Center for
Marine Science
Conservation Efforts
Restorative projects
(current: Purple Urchin
Ranching, Abalone
Broodstock Program,
Seaweed Tumbletanks)
The Crow’s Nest Fort Bragg 0 2,400 FREE
*Educational Tours:

Osprey (2 hr min.) $75 per
group
Help the Kelp (2 hr min.)
$75 per group
Pinniped (1 hr) $75 per
group
*Same as Noyo Center for
Marine Science
Tide pool aquarium
Marine mammal exhibits
Blue whale skeleton *Attendable based on nearby
activity within 50 ft
Competitive
Context
60 minute drive
time from site
62 Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
Mendocino Coast Model Railroad
& Historical Society
Fort Bragg 1 2,600 General:

Adult (12+) $5
Children (2-12) $3
Regular $35/year
Supporting $25/year
Extensive model railroad
exhibit
Walking tour of layout
Rebuild project
Blog
Youtube Channel
Guest House Museum Fort Bragg 1 4,500 FREE
(accepts donations)
*Fort Bragg – Mendocino
Coast Historical Society
Memberships:

Single $30
Couple $40
Patron $100
Patron Couple $150
Business $200
Non profit $50
Life $400
Life Couple $600
Family $50
House exhibits
Source: ESRI, Google, Placer
& Elevativ
Competitive
Context
60 minute drive
time from site
63 Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
The Skunk Train & Rail Bikes Fort Bragg 1 49,000 Rail Bike Fares:

Railbikes on Pudding
Creek $265 per bike (2
riders)
8 AM Rise & Shine trip
$195 per bike
Railbikes on the Noyo
$495 per bike
Dog Trailer $30
Train Fares:

Whisky Train (21+) $119
Days of Steam $79.95
Wolf Tree Turn $59.95
Pudding Creek Express
$49.95
Pumpkin Express $59.95
Other Attractions:

Glen Blair Bar $49.95
Roundhouse Tour $49.95
Mr. Skunk's Giant Xmas
Treee $59.95
Skunk Train Annual
Passes $399/ ticket
Rail Bikes
Train tours
Hikes
Historical Exhibits
Guided Tours
Group Visits
Seasonal/Holiday Events
21+ Events
Wedding Venue
Larry Spring Museum Fort Bragg 2 3,000* FREE Observer $50 Experimenter $100
Teacher $200
DIY Scientific Models
Exhibits
Artist/Experimenter
Installations
Source: ESRI, Google, Placer
& Elevativ
*Attendable based on nearby
activity within 50 ft
Competitive
Context
60 minute drive
time from site
64 Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
Mendocino Coast Botanical
Gardens
Fort Bragg 5 89,400 General Admission (18+)
$20
Seniors (65+) $17
Juniors (6-17) $8
Children (≤5) FREE
Member FREE
Member's Guest $10
Local $10
Military $12
Museums for All Program
$2.00
Individual $75
Household $125
Rose $200
Magnolia $400
Camellia $750
Dahlia $1200
Rhododendron $2000
Gardens
Art in the Gardens Event
Group Tours
Private Events
Wedding Venue
Kelley House Museum Mendocino 16 3,200 FREE
(accepts donations)
Historian $75
Curator $150
Museum/Business
Sponsor $275
$Museum Benefactor
$2000
Exhibits
Walking tour
Lawn parties
Events
Mendocino Art Center Mendocino 16 6,600 Workshop/Event Pricing:
*Dependent on
event/workshop length
$429 - $1,882
Student (<18) FREE
Individual $100
Senior (65+) $50
Supporter $200
Multi-Day Art Workshops
Events
Art Camps
Exhibits
Online galleries
Source: ESRI, Google, Placer Visitor Lodging & Elevativ Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
Anderson Valley Historical
Society
Boonville 63 23,700* FREE Family Membership $40
Friend of the Museum
$75
Lifetime Membership
$250
Annual Business $150
Exhibits (e.g. school)
Graveyards
Resident Interviews
Room Rental
Valley Chat Events
Membership Gatherings
B Bryan Preserve Point
Arena
65 7,100 Car Safaris:

Adult $25
Child (≤10) $15
Guided Tours:

Adult $35
Child (≤10) $20
Other Tours:

Private VIP Tour $250
Cottages (2 night min):
$250
No membership option Tours
Multi-night Stays
Animals
Preservation
Competitive
Context
Between 60 and
120 minute drive
time
65 Source: ESRI, Google, Placer
& Elevativ
*Attendable based on nearby
activity within 250 ft
Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
Point Arena Lighthouse Point
Arena
68 36,700 Site Visit:

Adult (12+) $5
Under 12 FREE
Member FREE
Tower Tours:

General (4+) $500
Member FREE
Lodging:

Sun-Thurs $199 - $399
Fri-Sat $229 -$449
Apprentice Keeper $25
Keeper's Assistant $50
Keeper's Assistant II $100
Lighthouse Keeper $200
Head Lighthouse Keeper
$500
Silver Lighthouse Keeper
$1000
Gold Lighthouse Keeper
$5000
Platinum Lighthouse
Keeper $10000
Indoor Museum
Outdoor Museum
Light Station Store
Tours
Grace Hudson Museum/Sun
House
Ukiah 80 8,100 Individual $5
Students $4
Seniors $4
Families $12
Military FREE
Native Americans FREE
Senior (62+) Single $15
Professional Educator
Single $15
Senior (62+) Dual $15
Professional Educator
Dual $15
Individual $30
Dual $50
Family $65
Supporter $165
Patron $525
Life $2000
Exhibits
Wild Gardens
Sun House
Gift Shop
Competitive
Context
Between 60 and
120 minute drive
time
66 Source: ESRI, Google, Placer
& Elevativ
Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
The Dolphin Gallery Gualala 84 7,200 FREE *Gualala Arts Memberships:

Individual $30
Family $50
Business $50
Art Angel additional
donation
Art gallery
Retail art
Newsletter
Other Gualala ticket sales
Workshops
Confusion Hill Leggett 85 21,600 Gravity House:

Adult $5
Children (4-12) $4
Children (≤3) FREE
Mountain Train Ride:

Adults $10
Children (4-12) $7.50
Children (≤3) FREE
No membership option Attractions
Gualala Arts Center Gualala 86 4,800 FREE (ticketed events and workshops)
Gualala Arts
Memberships:

Individual $30
Family $50
Business $50
Art Angel additional
donation
Art gallery
Fine Arts Fair
Event Center
Workshops
Competitive
Context
Between 60 and
120 minute drive
time
67 Source: ESRI, Google, Placer
& Elevativ
Attraction Location
Driving
Time from
site in
Minutes
Placer
Attendance
2023 Admission Pricing Membership Pricing Programs
Lake County Historic Courthouse
Museum
Lakeport 105 3,400* FREE (suggested small
donation)
$15 - Individual
$25 - Friend
$50 - Sponsor
$100 - Steward
$250 - Patron
$500 - Benefactor
Pomo Baskets and other
Native American artifacts
Geologic History of Clear
Lake
Gem and Mineral Display
Pioneer artifacts
Restored Courtroom
Research Library and
Photograph Collection
Cloverdale History Center Cloverdale 106 9,000* FREE (ticketed events) Individual $35 Family $45
Business $50
Contributing $100
Sustaining $500
Benefactor $1000
Exhibits on local area
Library for Research
Newsletter
Competitive
Context
Between 60 and
120 minute drive
time
68 Source: ESRI, Google, Placer
& Elevativ
*Attendable based on nearby
activity within 100 ft
69 Preliminary Review of
Comparable Projects
Case Studies Reviewed
70 Organization Location Governance
Cabrillo Marine Aquarium San Pedro, CA City of Los Angeles Department of Recreation and Parks
*has supportive, 501c3 friends
group, Friends of Cabrillo Marine
Aquarium
Hatfield Marine Science Center Newport, OR Oregon State University Living Coast Discovery Center Chula Vista, CA 501c3
Ocean Institute Dana Point, CA 501c3
Seymour Marine Discovery Center at
UCSC
Santa Cruz, CA Long Marine Laboratory at UCSC
Turtle Bay Exploration Park Redding, CA 501c3
• 6 case studies were
reviewed
• 3 are independent 501c3’s, 2
are affiliated with
universities and 1 is part of a
city’s parks and recreation
department
Source: Facilities listed and Elevativ
Case Studies Reviewed
(clockwise from top left: Cabrillo, Hatfield, Living Coast, Ocean Institute, Seymour & Turtle Bay) 71 72
Case Studies Organization Mission Program Content Admission Levels and Pricing Membership Levels and Pricing Notes Cabrillo Marine Aquarium To engage all visitors in
education, recreation,
and research to promote
knowledge, appreciation,
and conservation of the
marine life of Southern
California
Exhibit Hall
Exploration Center
Aquatic Nursery
John M. Olguin Auditorium
Cabrillo Coastal Park
Research/Conservation
School programs
Events
Channel Island Adventures
Discovery Lecture Series
Meet the Grunion
Whale Watch Trips
After School and Summer Programs
Weekend Programs
Beach Cleanup
Native Garden Restoration
Nature Journaling
Public Fish Dissection
Salt Marsh Open House
Tidepool Walks
Walk Cabrillo
Suggested donation of $7 for adults
and $3 for children and seniors.

Student $25.00
Senior/Military $40.00
Individual $50.00
Dual/Family $75.00
Supporter $100.00
Sponsor $150.00
Benefactor $300.00
Patron $500.00
Partner $1000.00
The aquarium is operated by the City of Los
Angeles Department of Recreation and Parks.

Friends of the Cabrillo Aquarium 501c3: THE

ORGANIZATION'S OPERATIONAL GOALS

INCLUDE SOLICITATION, RECEIPT AND

DISTRIBUTION OF FUNDS FOR EDUCATIONAL

PROGRAMS AND SERVICES OF CABRILLO
MARINE AQUARIUM.

Hatfield Marine Science
Center
To advance Oregon State
University's (OSU)
mission through research,
education, and outreach
in marine and coastal
sciences.

Hatfield Visitor Center
Research ship simulator
Touch Tank
Octopus Exhibit
Crustacean Station
Tsunami Wave Tank
Erosion Tank
Marine Mammal Skeletons
AR Sandbox
Gladys Valley Marine Studies Building
Innovation Lab
Auditorium
Labs
Cafe
School Programs
Tours
Guinn Library
Gift Shop
Yaquina Estuary Trail
Whale Watching
General (5+) $5 N/A Located on 49-acre campus and within 74,000 SF building.
73 Case Studies
(continued)
Organization Mission Program Content Admission Levels and Pricing Membership Levels and Pricing Notes Living Coast Discovery
Center
To increase knowledge of
coastal environments,
climate change
adaptation, and human
coexistence with the
natural resources of San
Diego Bay
Turtle Lagoon
Aquarium
Shark & Ray Experience
Raptor Row
Living Coast Exhibit - Eagle Mesa
Native Pollinator Garden
Compost Garden
Walking Trails
Wildlife Camps
School Programs
Community Programs
Family Programs
Scout Programs
Trail to Bay Hikes
Team Up to Clean Up
Private Rentals
Gift Shop
Conservation
Adults (13+) $20
Children (3-12) $15
Children (2 and under) Free
Student Discount $16
Senior Discount (Ages 65+) $16
$149 Household – For up to 6
named adults or children in the
same household.

Plus two 2-for-1 admission
coupons.
$149 Grandparents – For up to 6
named adults or children,
including grandchildren.

Plus two 2-for-1 admission
coupons.
$89 Dual – 2 people.

Plus two 2-for-1 admission
coupons.
$49 Individual – 1 person.

Plus one 2-for-1 admission
coupon.

From website: On average, we see 70,000
visitors each year, including families, school
groups, and special events.

Located in 326-acre refuge.

Since 1987, the Living Coast has provided a living
interpretive experience while promoting coastal
resource conservation and environmental
stewardship through education. The Living Coast
is a zoo and aquarium that focuses on local
animals from the San Diego region and provides
unique opportunities to explore nature trails,
learn about coastal resource conservation, and
experience native wildlife up-close. Through
partnerships with the City of Chula Vista and U.S.

Fish and Wildlife Service, the Living Coast
conducts nature-based educational programs
and collaborative research within the 316-acre
Sweetwater Marsh Unit of the San Diego Bay
National Wildlife Refuge. Our vision is a thriving
natural coast through engaged conservation.

Ocean Institute Using the ocean as our
classroom, we inspire
children to learn.

Exhibits
Field Trips
Teen Programs
Whale and Marine Life Tour
Sail on Spirit of Dana Point
Bioluminescence Night Cruise
Birthday Parties
Beach Clean-ups
Summer Camps
Venue Rentals
Gift Shop
Annual Maritime Festival
Adult: $15.00
Senior (55+ y.o)/Military: $10.00
Child (19 months – 13 y.o): $7.50
Toddler (18 months and under): $0
Sea Star: $250
Teacher: FREE
Jr. Explorer - Youth: $50
Individual: $100
Family: $150
Senior: $175
Captains Compass: $400
Sealife Sponsor: $650
Ocean Advocate: $1,500
located on 2.4 acres in the Dana Point
Harbor; adjacent to a Marine Protected Area.

The Institute includes state-of-the-art
teaching labs, the spectacular Maddie James
Seaside Learning Center, a historic tall ship,
and an oceanographic research vessel.

Immersion-based field trips range from onehour science labs to multi-day programs at sea. All programs are designed to maximize
immersion, spark curiosity, and inspire a
deep commitment to learning.
74 Case Studies
(continued)
Source: Facilities listed
and Elevativ.

Organization Mission Program Content Admission Levels and Pricing Membership Levels and Pricing Notes Seymour Marine
Discovery Center at
UCSC
To educate people about
the role scientific
research plays in the
understanding and
conservation of the
world's oceans
Indoor Exhibits
Outdoor Exhibits
Events
Group visits
School field trips
Discovery Lab & Tour
Ocean Explorers Summer Program
Private event rentals
Behind-the-Scenes Research Tour
Younger Lagoon tours
Long Marine Laboratory
Gift Shop
Coffee/Snacks
Adult $12
Senior (65 and older) $11
Student (with ID) $9
Child (3-17) $9
Toddler (2 and under) Free
Members (join now) Free
UC Santa Cruz undergraduate with
valid ID Free
Individual $50.00
Dual/Family $80.00
Discoverer's Circle $115.00
Explorer's Circle $250.00
Researcher's Circle $500.00
Leadership Circle $1,500.00
All programs and daily operations of the
Seymour Marine Discovery Center are funded
through memberships, gifts, grants, special
events, program fees, facility rentals, gift store
sales, and admission fees. We rely on our
community to keep us running.

Through our breathtaking seaside learning
center, we bring the adventures and
explorations of ocean science to life. Powered
by the Long Marine Laboratory, a worldrenowned university research facility, the Seymour Marine Discovery Center offers handson immersion into the world of ocean exploration and discovery. In our 20,000-squarefoot visitor center, guests can touch a shark, explore the latest discoveries in ocean science,
and take in the spectacular Monterey Bay,
which has been called the “Serengeti of the sea”
for its incredible diversity of marine life. The
Center offers a deeper dive into the research
conducted at Long Marine Lab and a chance for
everyone to find their inner scientist through
rich experiential learning programs including
school field-trips, summer youth programs,
Science Sundays, volunteer opportunities,
internships, and more.

O d i 2000 f $6 4 illi Turtle Bay Exploration
Park
To inspire wonder,
exploration, and
appreciation of our world.

Turtle Bay Museum
Oak Tree
Visible River Aquarium
Cave
Salt Water Tank
Urban Watershed Touch Table
River Lab
Wintu Bark House
Atsugewi Lumjawi
History Gallery
Resource Gallery
Dam to Bridge
Amazing Pollinators
Yosh Sugiyama
Museum Store
Turtle Bay Park
Sundial Bridge
Animal Exhibits and Programs
Access Programs
Forest Camp
Dining
Hotel
McConnell Arboretum & Botanical Gardens
School Field Trips
Discovery Camps
Family Programs
Adult (16-64) $20.00
Child [4-15] $16.00
Senior (65+) $16.00
Child 3 and Under $0.00
Senior Membership $10 Discount
Individual $75
Family $105
Contributor $200
Patron $350
Benefactor $500
College Student $50
Family Plus $125.00
Contributor Plus $240.00
Organization Membership
Located in 300-acre park. Accredited as a zoo.

April 2023: Turtle Bay Breaks Ground On NEW
Environmental Resource Building
Summary Review of Case Studies
• 60-minute drive time population ranges from 55,400 at Hatfield to over 10 million at Cabrillo and total average of 3.6 million and median of 2.6 million; and 19,100 for the OSC. • Overnight tourist/visitor markets are large for all yielding total average of close-in overnight visitors of 778,000 and median of 746,000; and approximately 750,000 for the region in and around Fort Bragg. • Size in square feet (SF) ranges from approximately 20,000 SF at Seymour to 44,000 at Cabrillo and total average of 33,000 SF and median of 34,000 SF; and 25,000 SF for the OSC. • In 2023, annual attendance ranged from approximately 34,400 at Seymour to 272,900 at Turtle Bay and total average of 135,000 and median of 112,000.
• Current summer 2024 adult admission price ranges from $5 at Hatfield to $20 at both Living Coast and Turtle Bay, and total average of $13 and median of $14. • Current summer 2024 family membership price ranges from $75 at Cabrillo to $150 at Ocean Institute, and total average of $110 and median of $105.
• Market penetration of annual attendance of the corresponding 60-minute drive time populations ranges from 1.2% at Ocean Institute to 276% at Hatfield, with total average of 66%, weighted average of 3.7% and median of 2.0%.
75 Summary Review of Three 501c3 Case Studies
• Total revenues ranged from $3.4 million at Living Coast to $13 million at Turtle Bay, and total average of $6.8 million and median of $4.0 million.
• Earned revenues ranged from $702,000 at Living Coast to $1.9 million at Turtle Bay, and total average of $1.3 million and median of $1.4 million.
• Earned revenue as a percentage of total revenues ranged from 15% at Turtle Bay to 37% at Ocean Institute, and total average of 24%, weighted average of 20% and median of 20%. • Operating expenses ranged from $2.3 million at Living Coast to $7.4 million at Turtle Bay, and total average of $4.7 million and median of $4.4 million.
• Coverage of operating expenses by earned revenues ranged from 26% at Turtle Bay to 34% at Ocean Institute, and total average of 30%, weighted average of 21% and median of 30%. • Operating expenses per square foot of exhibit building ranged from $104 at Living Coast to $218 at Turtle Bay, and total average of $151, weighted average of $106 and median of $130. 76 77
Preliminary Market and
Economic Potential
Preliminary Operating Potential Assumptions
• Proposed OSC of indoor 25,000 GSF building including aquarium exhibits, touch tank and interactive multi-media exhibits, as well as outdoor wetland exhibit areas, as conceived by EHDD and described herein. As planning by the design team continues, the operating potential and cash flow analysis for the OSC will need to be revisited and revised. • Location and site context of the OSC overlooking the Pacific Ocean and adjacent to Noyo’s planned blue economy, research and marine mammal rehabilitation development. • Operating hours of 7 days per week during peak summer months from 9 AM to 5 PM with potential to open earlier or later. During non-peak months open 5 days per week, with potential to close an additional day per week during slow weeks and extend hours as needed to accommodate school visits and/or special events.
• Size and demographic profile of the Resident Markets and tourists to Fort Bragg region. • Operating experience of regional attractions and the competitive context for the OSC and its components.
• Operational experience of comparable marine science centers nationally. • Adult general admission price of $20.00 in current dollars with discounts for seniors, military, and children. School groups, OSC members, corporate sponsors, children under 3, VIPs and other complimentary visitors are assumed to enter free of charge. In addition, there are additional discounts available by assumed couponing for both residents and tourists assumed at -15% of the achieved per capita ticket revenue. 78 Preliminary Operating Potential Assumptions (continued) • OSC will seek out a qualified and experienced café operator. • The size and design of each component of the proposed OSC will serve to create a high quality, stimulating attraction with broad-based audience appeal and a distinctive image. The entrance to the OSC campus will be highly visible and well signed.
• OSC will be competently and effectively managed as part of the larger Noyo Marine Science Center operation. An aggressive promotional and marketing campaign will be developed and implemented.

The program will be targeted to prime resident and visitor markets. The admission price for the OSC will be consistent with the educational, entertainment and recreational value offered, and in line with current attraction admissions prices for other comparable destinations. • There will be no physical constraints to impede visitors to the OSC, such as major construction activity. Changes in economic conditions such as a major recession, public health (such as the Covid- 19 pandemic), political or major environmental problems that would negatively affect operations and visitation will not occur in the near future and are not assumed in this market and economic analysis. • Current proposed program of areas and approximately 25,000 SF for the Museum can accommodate low through high range stable year visitors on a peak day. During peak days, if needed, the OSC can undertake strategies to potential mitigate bottlenecks and visitor throughput issues utilizing such mitigation efforts such as timed-ticketing and/or longer hours of operation. 79 Preliminary Visitation Potential
• Preliminary visitation potential for the OSC in a stable year of operations ranges from a low of 60,000 to a high of 120,000 visitors, and a mid-range of 90,000 visitors based on data available at the time of this report.
• Estimated 24% of visitors are from the Resident Market and 76% from the tourist market, or outside the Resident Market area.
• Stable year is expected to occur in Year 3 after opening based on the experience of other museum projects.

Early year attendance in Years 1 and 2 will be higher than stable Year 3 based on the experience of similar projects.
• Sustainability of attendance for the OSC assumes that the OSC will offer one or two changing exhibits on an annual basis. Risk for the OSC is that after a couple years visitation to the paid exhibit components of the OSC may decline if the OSC does not include changing exhibits on an annual basis as Fort Bragg has many repeat visitors.
80 OSC Admissions and Pricing in Current Dollars
• Full price admission pricing for the OSC
reflects pricing for majority of its visitors
(76%) from the visitor/tourist market.
• Full price admission fees in current dollars
are assumed at:
• $20.00 for Adults
• $16.00 for Seniors and Military
• $15.00 for Children & Youth (3-17)
• This analysis assumes average discounts of
15% of full price tickets to account for
couponing and other promotions by hotel
partners and other incentives as well as for
local residents.
• 77% of visitors are assumed to be paid and
23% are assumed to be free.
• Free for School Groups, Event Rental Attendees
whose admission to the OSC is included in the
rental fees, OSC Members and Corporate Sponsors
and for Free and Complimentary visitors to
include complimentary tickets, children under
three years old, VIPs, etc.
• Overall, the achieved per capita (per visitor)
admissions revenue is $11.41 in current
dollars.
81 Source: Elevativ.

Stable Year, Mid-Range Attendance and Revenue
Assumptions in Current Dollars
82 General Notes
Facility Gross Square Footage 25,000 Source: EHDD
Outdoor Gross Square Footage 5,000 Source: EHDD
Water Volume of Aquarium Exhibits 25,000 Source: EHDD
Mid-Range Attendance 90,000
Annual Inflation Rate 4.0%
Annual Attendance Growth after Year 3 0.5% Assumes Changing Exhibits starting in Year 3 Peak Summer Season Operating Hours 9 AM to 5 PM Mondays through Sundays, with potential open earlier or later during peak times to
accommodate visitors
Off-Peak Operating Hours 10 AM to 5 PM 5 days per week, with potential to close an additional day per week during slow weeks and
extend hours as needed
Stable Year, Mid-Range Attendance and Revenue
Assumptions in Current Dollars (continued)
83 Admission Fees and Revenue
Adult General Admission Price $20.00 in 2024 dollars
Coupons & Discounts as a % of Achieved Per Capita
Admissions Revenue
-15.0% average discount assumption for potential
agreements with collaborative hotels, tour
operators, and/or local residents
Per Capita Admissions Revenue $11.41 Average after discounts and admissions by type Admission & Membership Price Increase % Every
Other Year

10.0% which is above the compounded inflation rate
Family & Supportive Memberships
Number of Noyo Memberships in 2024 154 Average 2 visits per year per membership - this includes donors who may not visit sites
Number Additional Noyo of Family & Supportive
Memberships 790 Stable Year
Average Revenue Per Membership $75 Year 1
Annual Attendances Per Additional Membership 3.0 Includes Family membership category which includes average of 4+ visits per year per
membership
Corporate Sponsorships
Number of Corporate Sponsorships 5
Avg. Corporate Sponsorship Rate TBD Revenue not included in analysis.

Attendances Per Corporate Sponsorship 50
Stable Year, Mid-Range Attendance and Revenue
Assumptions in Current Dollars (continued)
84 Retail
Per Capita Retail Sales $3.00 average for all visitors
Cost of Goods Sold as a % of Retail Sales 50%
Outside Sales 5% walk-in trade from non-OSC visitors
Café
Per Capital Café Sales $5.00 average for all visitors
Additional Outside Sales 20% walk-in trade from non-OSC visitors Percent of Gross Sales to OSC 18% Operated by outside contractor.

Facility Rentals
Number of Large Events 12
Average Attendees per Large Event 100
Net Revenue Per Large Event $5,000
Number of Small Events 24 includes birthday parties and smaller gatherings Average Attendees per Small Event 25
Net Revenue Per Small Event $1,250
Event Attendee Per Capita Facility Rental Net
Revenue
$50 Includes Large and Small Events
Stable Year, Mid-Range Attendance and Revenue
Assumptions in Current Dollars (continued)
85 Day Camps
Number of Weekly Day Camps Per Year 24 assumes 2 camps running simultaneously for 12 weeks
Average Cost Per Camper $250
Average Number of Campers per Camp 25
Miscellaneous Revenue As a % of Earned Revenue 3% Includes revenue from potential on site programs such as lectures, films, culinary demonstrations,
special events, etc.

Non-Earned Revenue Requirement for Breakeven
Operations in Stable Year
TBD All comparable projects rely on non-earned
revenues for operations, which typically includes
revenue from such sources as contributions, gifts,
grants, endowments, corporate sponsorships and
other sources of non-earned revenues.

Source: EHDD, Noyo Center for Marine Science and Elevativ.

Percent to Total Earned Revenue
86 • In a stable year, midrange attendance
operating scenario, the
OSC has preliminary total
earned revenue potential
of nearly $1.8 million.

Preliminary OSC
Proposed Staff
Positions
87 1/ FTE -- Full Time Equivalent positions are estimated based on full time personnel plus part time workers at 50% of full time.
2/ Average hours per volunteer based on 50 weeks at 6 hours per week. 3/ If sufficient volunteers are not available, additional paid staff may be necessary.

Source: Elevativ.
• It is assumed that the OSC’s staff would
collaborate with other Noyo Center for
Marine Science staff. *Overall, the staffing
for the OSC should be reviewed by Noyo in
the context of its larger planned
development.
• In addition to this budget, the operating
expenses include additional operating
budget for OSC to support these additional
staff as part of the larger Noyo organization
of $50,000 plus additional budget of $30,000
for additional seasonal staff during peak
periods.

Title/Position
Number of
Full-Time
Number of
Part-Time
Number of
Part-Time
Equivalent
Volunteer
Positions
Assumed Full
Time Equivalent
(FTE) Annual
Salary Total Salary
Administration
Business & Facilities Manager 1 $75,000 $75,000
Development and Marketing
Marketing, Membership,
Development and
1 $70,000 $70,000
Volunteer Coordinator 1 $50,000 $25,000
Event Assistants 2 1 $50,000 $50,000
Animal Husbandry & Exhibits
Exhibit Manager 1 $60,000 $30,000
Aquarist 1 2 $65,000 $130,000
HVAC Engineer 1 $65,000 $32,500
Security 1 1 $50,000 $75,000
Visitor Experiences
Admissions and Store Manager 1 $70,000 $35,000
Day Camp Counselors 4 4 $55,000 $110,000
Docent / Security / Education Staff 4 4 $50,000 $100,000 Cashiers - Admissions/Retail 1 1 $48,000 $72,000
Total Salaries $804,500
Taxes & Fringe Estimated at 20% $160,900
Total Salaries, Taxes & Fringe $965,400
Total Personnel 5 18
FTE Equivalent Positions 1/
Number of PT Volunteer Positions 9
Avg. Annual Hours worked per Volunteer: 300 2/
Volunteers needed to fill each part time positions: 3.3 Total Volunteers Needed 3/ 30

14.0 Preliminary,
Mid-Range
Stable Year
Operating
Expenses in
Current Dollars
88 1/ Factors are based on industry standards and the
specific attributes of the project and local conditions. 2/ Includes electricity, gas and water.
3/ Capital Reserves include funds for equipment
replacements and minor capital for building
improvements.

Source: EHDD and Elevativ.

Detailed Budgetary Analysis Annual Amount Expense Factors 1/ Percent To
Total
Salaries $804,500 See Personnel Schedule 41.4%
Personnel Taxes & Fringe 160,900 20%
of Total Salaries based on
employee mix 8.3%
Seasonal Part Time Staff 30,000 $30/hour Budgeted for 1,000 hours 1.5% Noyo Organization Additional Management
Costs 50,000 Budgeted - TBD 2.6%
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) 142,000 @ 50.0% Retail Revenues 7.3% Professional ("Contracted") Services 17,500 @ $1,250 Per FTE 0.9% Information Technology Services 21,000 @ $1,500 Per FTE 1.1% Development Activities 20,000 Budgeted 1.0%
Supplies and Materials, including Day Camp
& School Group supplies 21,000 @ $1,500 Per FTE 1.1%
Travel & Staff Development, Dues &
Subscriptions 16,800 @ $1,200 Per FTE 0.9%
Telephone / Communications 17,500 @ $1,250 Per FTE 0.9% Postage & Shipping 1,400 @ $100 Per FTE 0.1%
Equipment Rental / Lease 16,800 @ $1,200 Per FTE 0.9%
Advertising 90,000 @ $1.00 Per Attendee 4.6%
Printing & Publications 22,500 @ $0.25 Per Attendee 1.2% Special Events & Programs 20,000 Budgeted 1.0%
Aquarium Animal Food & Collections 12,500 @ $0.50 Per Gallon of Aquarium Exhibits 0.6% Changing Exhibits 35,000 Budgeted 1.8%
Exhibit Reinvestment / Maintenance 67,500 @ $0.75 Per Attendee 3.5% Floor Staff & Volunteer Uniforms, gratuities &
social events 4,500 $150
Per 30 On-Site Staff including
Seasonal & Volunteers 0.2%
Utilities 2/ 87,500 @ $3.50 Per SF 4.5%
Insurance 100,000 @ $4.00 Per SF 5.1%
Custodial / Janitorial / Landscaping
Contracted Services
34,320 @ $55.00 Per Hour assuming average of
12 hours per week

1.8%
Building and Grounds Repairs & Maintenance 37,500 @ $1.50 Per SF 1.9% Other Miscellaneous / Contingency 54,922 @ 3% of Expenses Above 2.8% Subtotal Operating Expenses $1,885,642 97.1%
Capital Reserves 3/ $56,569 3% of Total Op. Expenses 2.9% Total Operating Expenses
(rounded to nearest 1,000) $1,942,000 100.0%
Percent to Total Operating Expenses
89 • In a stable year, midrange attendance
operating scenario, the
OSC has preliminary total
operating expenses of
nearly $1.9 million.

Preliminary Mid
-
Range Attendance
Scenario
Cash Flow Analysis
Before Non-Earned
Revenue as part of
larger Noyo
Operation
90 1/ Capital Reserves include funds for equipment replacements and minor capital for building improvements.
2/ All similar projects' Total Revenue includes non-earned / contributed revenue sources such as revenue from contributions, gifts, grants, endowments, corporate sponsorships and other sources of non-earned revenues.

Source: Elevativ.

Stabilized Year in
Current Dollars

TOTAL EARNED REVENUE
Rounded to Nearest 1,000 $1,758,000

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
Rounded to Nearest 1,000 $1,943,000
Net Income from Operations Before Non-Earned /
Contributed Revenues ($185,000)
Non-Earned / Contributed Revenue Requirement for
Breakeven Operations 2/ $185,000
Net Income from Operations After Non-Earned /
Contributed Revenue Requirement $0
Operating Potential Summary
• The proposed OSC will provide a wonderful opportunity for Noyo to:
• Expand Noyo’s public-facing offerings within Fort Bragg • Provide a world-class visitor experience that is both engaging and fun, as well as educational • Expose new audiences to Noyo’s mission and vision and garner future donor support • Noyo with the OSC elevates and transforms Noyo to a stronger operating profile with world-class visitor experience offerings.
• Creates an opportunity for Noyo to serve and attract larger and broader audiences and perform at a higher level overall.
• Creates opportunities for Noyo to attract additional donors and sponsors. • OSC has the potential to sustain and grow its attendance potential if the OSC is refreshed every couple years and offers dynamic, changing exhibits and programs. • Overall, the proposed OSC will be a welcome addition to the conservation, cultural and educational landscape of Fort Bragg benefiting the local community, region and Mendocino County as a whole.
91 Recommended Next Steps
• The preliminary OSC staffing profile and operating expenses should be reviewed by Noyo as it relates to its larger proposed operation and organization as developed by Don Perkins and team.
• As the OSC’s planning progresses, continue to revise the cash flow analysis to reflect the latest plans for the project and for the Noyo organization as a whole. 92

Fort Bragg City CouncilSeptember 23, 2024

Fort Bragg City Council
September 23, 2024