The City of Fort Bragg
PLANNING PARTNER ANNEX
HAZARD
MITIGATION
PLAN
2026
Y OFORT BRAG
CALIFORNIA
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
2 Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................................................................................... 2 1 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................... 3 2 MITIGATION STRATEGY........................................................................................................... 5
2.1 MITIGATION GOALS ........................................................................................................ 5
2.2 2021 MITIGATION ACTIONS............................................................................................ 5
2.3 2026 MITIGATION ACTIONS............................................................................................ 6
2.4 MITIGATION CAPABILITIES............................................................................................ 11
2.5 COMPLIANCE WITH FLOODPLAIN REQUIREMENTS...................................................... 14
2.6 PLANNING INTEGRATION.............................................................................................. 15
2.7 CONTINUING PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT............................................................................ 15
2.8 CHANGES IN COMMUNITY PRIORITIES......................................................................... 16 3 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT............................................................... 17
3.1 HAZARD RISK RANKING................................................................................................. 17
3.2 EXPOSURE ANALYSIS..................................................................................................... 17
3.3 COASTAL HAZARDS: FLOODING, SEA LEVEL RISE, EROSION......................................... 21
3.4 DAM & LEVEE FAILURE.................................................................................................. 33
3.5 DROUGHT...................................................................................................................... 35
3.6 EARTHQUAKE ................................................................................................................ 37
3.7 FLOOD (INLAND) ........................................................................................................... 38
3.8 MASS EARTH MOVEMENTS: LANDSLIDES, ROCK FALLS, & DEBRIS FLOW.................... 40
3.9 SEVERE STORMS............................................................................................................ 44
3.10 TSUNAMI....................................................................................................................... 45
3.11 WILDFIRE....................................................................................................................... 47 APPENDIX A ADOPTION RESOLUTION .......................................................................................... 54 Professional planning services for this plan update were provided by:
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Introduction 3
1 Introduction
FIGURE 1 shows the City of Fort Bragg boundaries. The following city staff members participated in the HMP planning process and provided input to inform this Annex. A detailed list of the planning roster is provided in Appendix D of the Base Plan. • Public Works Assistant Director, Engineering Division • Economic Development Manager
• Police Captain & Emergency Manager
• Police Chief
In addition to the public engagement outlined in the Base Plan, the city involved many nonprofits and community organizations listed in Section 2 of the Base Plan through stakeholder surveys. One of the nonprofits the city engaged with is the GrassRoots Institute of Mendocino County, which sent an email to its members to promote the planning process and public survey. Hard-copy flyers for the public survey were also posted at several locations across the city.
The West Business Development Center was one stakeholder that provided input through the stakeholder survey. The organization serves entrepreneurs and small business owners across incorporated and unincorporated areas, as well as areas outside the county. The Center noted that recent disasters, including COVID-19, wildfires, and drought, significantly disrupted small business operations. Many small businesses were identified as unprepared or underprepared for disaster impacts, resulting in operational disruptions and permanent closures.
The West Business Development Center identified key hazards of concern for the populations it serves, including coastal hazards, earthquakes, drought, extreme heat, flooding, mass earth movements, severe storms, tsunamis, and wildfires. This feedback was incorporated into the Base Plan under local vulnerabilities for applicable hazards, with additional discussion of small businesses as an under-resourced population to reflect concerns related to disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.
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Introduction 4
Figure 1 City of Fort Bragg
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2 Mitigation Strategy
The mitigation strategy is a central component of the hazard mitigation plan (HMP) and the primary outcome of the planning process. This strategy serves as a long-term framework for reducing vulnerabilities to hazards. While this document begins by focusing on the mitigation strategy, it is important to acknowledge the various components that informed the planning process. These inputs included decisions and information from the Planning Partners, Core Planning Team (CPT), and general public, in addition to the results of the risk and vulnerability assessment. All of this information is captured in detail across the County of Mendocino Base Plan and this City of Fort Bragg Annex.
2.1 Mitigation Goals
The City of Fort Bragg has adopted the hazard mitigation goals and objectives developed by the Core Planning Team and described in Section 1.1 of the Base Plan.
2.2 2021 Mitigation Actions
The following list provides details on the progress made toward implementation of the 2021 mitigation actions for the City of Fort Bragg. Additional details about the status of implementation can be found in the Base Plan HMP Appendix B. • Complete
o (ma-SF-FB-245) Landslide Susceptibility Study
o (ma-WF-FB-14) Develop an Urban Fire Prevention Program • On-Going
o (ma-FL-FB-232) Flood Mitigation Educational Campaign for Ocean Lake Adult Mobile Home Community
• In Progress
o (ma-CC-FB-204) Study on Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Tsunami Events on Drinking Water
o (ma-DR-FB-231) Study on Water Supply Contingency
o (ma-EQ-FB-9) Seismically Retrofit Public Works and Emergency Response Facilities
o (ma-EW-FB-13) Underground Utilities
o (ma-FL-FB-10) Reinforce Transportation Infrastructure o (ma-SF-FB-237) Retrofit Well and Water Delivery Pipes • No Progress – No Longer a Mitigation Priority
o (ma-EQ-FB-12) Develop an Unreinforced Masonry Grant Program o (ma-PN-FB-233) Public Outreach Program for Pandemic
o (ma-PN-FB-235) Structural Improvements for Pandemic (Ventilation and Structural Barriers)
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o (ma-PN-FB-236) Develop Alternative Sheltering/Evacuation Locations for Pandemic
2.2.1 Mitigation Successes
The city has identified several mitigation successes since the last HMP update, including:
• Through collaboration with Noyo Harbor, a 20-ton flake ice machine was purchased to support backup food storage.
• Evaluating the use of logging and private roads as emergency egress routes. • Offering an Emergency Weather Shelter when extreme cold events occur.
2.3 2026 Mitigation Actions
The City of Fort Bragg Steering Committee identified and prioritized the following mitigation actions for the City of Fort Bragg based on the risk assessment and input from the public survey.
2.3.1 Coastal Hazards
• High Priority
o (FB1) Assess and Reinforce Vulnerable Sections of the Raw Water Line. Assess and reinforce vulnerable sections of the raw water line at risk of erosion.
Implement protective measures, such as bank stabilization or rerouting, to prevent breaks that could disrupt the city’s water supply. o (FB2) Cure-in-Place Pipe (CIPP) Relining Program. Implement a Cure-In-Place Pipe (CIPP) relining program to internally strengthen aging wastewater pipelines. This approach will improve the integrity and resilience of the sewer system, critical as approximately one-third of the city’s wastewater gravity flows into the harbor, where it is then pumped to the City Wastewater Treatment Plant, reducing the risk of leaks, ruptures, and environmental contamination. o (FB35) Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) Inflow Sewer Main Replacement.
This project, identified in the Ft. Bragg Wastewater Collection System Master Plan (CMSP), will increase 2,305 FT of 30-inch pipe diameter to 42-inch. This is the last stretch of sewer main connecting the entire collection system to the WWTP, which is both undersized and past its life expectancy. • Medium Priority
o (FB3) Coastal Hazards Mitigation Educational Campaign. Implement a focused public education program to inform vulnerable populations about evacuation procedures, timing, and routes. Use multilingual materials and accessible communication channels to ensure all community members understand how and when to evacuate safely during emergencies.
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2.3.2 Dam and Levee Incident
• High Priority
o (FB4) Remediation Action Plan for Operable Unit E (OU-E) Site. Complete an Environmental Impact Report (EIR) and obtain a Coastal Development Permit (CDP) for the California Department of Toxic Substance and Control (DTSC) Remediation Action Plan for OU-E site. The site includes 10 man-made ponds, wetland and riparian areas, including a dam. This process will ensure regulatory compliance and environmental protection.
2.3.3 Drought
• High Priority
o (FB5) Design New Water Reservoirs. Develop designs and plans for three new water reservoirs to increase storage capacity. These reservoirs will capture excess water during wet months and provide reliable supply during dry periods, enhancing water security and drought resilience.
o (FB8) Implementation of Water Master Plan. Continue Implementation of Water Infrastructure Projects - Water Master Plan Projects, including Construction of three new storage reservoirs, Recycled Water Reclamation (Purple pipe), distribution system rehabilitation, raw water line replacement, Newman Pump Station Construction, and upsizing system mains identified for fire flow deficiencies.
o (FB10) Raw Water Pipeline. Complete the reconstruction of the Raw Water Pipeline which delivers source water to the water treatment plant. Construct the Newman Pump Station which will allow water to be pumped from the Noyo River up to the new storage reservoirs.
• Medium Priority
o (FB6) Feasibility Study for Desalination Project. Conduct a feasibility study exploring the use of offshore buoys and infrastructure for a future ocean water desalination project. This study will assess environmental impacts, technical requirements, and potential benefits to diversify the city’s water supply. o (FB7) Feasibility Study for Use of Purple Pipe System. Conduct a feasibility study on the use of the purple pipe system to treat and recycle wastewater into potable water. This study will evaluate technical, environmental, and regulatory factors to advance sustainable water reuse and reduce demand on traditional water sources.
o (FB9) Study on Water Supply Contingency. Explore water supply contingency and alternative water supplies to improve water supply and delivery and wastewater treatment capacity in times of drought. (past action ma-DR-FB-231) Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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2.3.4 Earthquake
• High Priority
o (FB11) Water and Sewer Distribution Line Improvements. Harden water and sewer distribution and collection system mains by reinforcing and protecting critical pipelines, reducing vulnerability to damage. Hardening of sewer mains will mainly be completed through CIPP lining, and undersized water mains require removal and replacement. The projects are identified in their respective Utility Master Planning documents.
o (FB13) Seismically Retrofit Public Works and Emergency Response Facilities.
Seismically retrofit or replace public works and/or emergency response facilities that are necessary during and/or immediately after a disaster or emergency.
Specific needs for fire department, corporation yard, and hospital. (past action ma-EQ-FB-9)
o (FB14) Veteran Hall EOC. Renovate and seismically retrofit the Veteran Halls to be used as an Official Emergency Operations Center (EOC) to improve coordination and response during emergencies and provide ongoing community support.
o (FB15) Community Resilience Center. Construct a Community Resilience Center to improve coordination and response during emergencies and provide ongoing community support.
• Medium Priority
o (FB12) Seismic Retrofit Project for City Hall East. Implement a seismic retrofit project for City Hall East to enhance structural resilience against earthquakes. o (FB16) Guest House Museum Seismic Retrofit. Rehabilitation of the existing brick foundation and chimneys on the Guest House Museum as well as upgrading the windows.
2.3.5 Extreme Cold or Freeze
Hazard effects from extreme cold or freeze do not currently present an immediate or impactful risk to the district’s assets and are, therefore, not a mitigation priority.
2.3.6 Extreme Heat
Hazard effects from extreme heat do not currently present an immediate or impactful risk to the district’s assets and are, therefore, not a mitigation priority.
2.3.7 Flood (Inland)
• High Priority
o (FB19) Flood Mitigation Educational Campaign for Ocean Lake Adult Mobile Home Community. Develop a comprehensive public outreach program to educate property owners in areas at risk, including those outside official flood zones, about various hazard risks, including flooding, and the benefits of Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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voluntary flood insurance. This program will specifically target communities like Ocean Lake Mobile Home Park to raise awareness and encourage proactive measures for disaster preparedness and risk reduction. (past action ma-FL-FB232) • Medium Priority
o (FB17) Develop and Implement an Evacuation Plan for the Ocean Lake Adult Mobile Home Community. Develop a formal Evacuation Plan for the Ocean Lake Adult Mobile Home Community and conduct a targeted public education campaign to ensure residents understand evacuation routes, procedures, and emergency communication methods.
o (FB18) Flood Mitigation Educational Campaign. Develop and implement a Public Education Program on Flood Risks annually in the spring, leveraging existing public outreach events and social media platforms to share information, increase community awareness, and promote preparedness for flood-related emergencies.
o (FB20) Reinforce Transportation Infrastructure. Reinforce local ramps, bridges, and roads from flooding through protection activities, including elevating the road and installing culverts beneath the road or building a higher bridge across the area that experiences regular flooding. Coordinate with the county to reinforce county roads around the city. (past action ma-FL-FB-10)
2.3.8 Mass Earth Movements
• High Priority
o (FB21) Enhancement and Hardening of Water and Sewer Delivery Systems.
Enhancement and Hardening of Water and Sewer Delivery Systems on Steep Slopes to Ensure Reliable Service and Minimize Vulnerabilities During Hazard Events.
• Medium Priority
o (FB23) Landslide Susceptibility Study. Initiate process to understand landslide susceptibility for emergency egress, including land ownership and CalTrans funding opportunities. Locations include North Harbor Drive, north of Fort Bragg (Hwy 1), and east of Fort Bragg (Hwy 20).
2.3.9 Severe Storms
• High Priority
o (FB24) Development of an Internet and Communications Redundancy Plan.
Development of an Internet and Communications Redundancy Plan to Ensure Continuous Connectivity and Reliable Communication During Emergencies.
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o (FB25) Installation of Backup Generators at Fuel Stations. Installation of Backup Generators at Fuel Stations to Maintain Critical Fuel Supply During Power Outages.
• Medium Priority
o (FB26) Underground Utilities. Install underground utilities or clear right-of-way for utilities that provide power and communication to critical facilities and are at-risk to fail during a winter storm event. (past action ma-EW-FB-13)
2.3.10 Tsunami
• High Priority
o (FB28) Upgrade and Modernize the Tsunami Siren System. Upgrade and Modernize the Tsunami Siren System at Ocean View RV Park in Coordination with County Authorities to Enhance Early Warning Capabilities. • Medium Priority
o (FB27) Develop a Project to Mitigate Increased Salinity in Drinking Water Intakes.
Develop a Project to Mitigate Increased Salinity in Drinking Water Intakes Caused by Reduced River Levels from Drought, Combined with Sea Level Rise and Tsunami Impacts.
2.3.11 Wildfire
• High Priority
o (FB30) Fire Flow Deficiency Projects. Implementation of "Fire Flow Deficiency" projects identified in the 2025 Water Distribution System Master Plan, including the Willow Street Pump Station upgrade and the Cedar Street Water Line Replacement Projects, is necessary to ensure pressure and pipe velocities during fire flow conditions meet expected growth conditions. The Master Plan includes additional fire flow deficiency projects which should be undertaken after these two priority projects are completed.
• Medium Priority
o (FB31) Vulnerable Water Supply Infrastructure. Develop a plan to protect the most vulnerable water supply infrastructure (the treatment plant and storage tanks) which are located in east Fort Bragg near dense woodland areas.
Additionally, Fire Station #2 is located on Highway 20 and vulnerable to wildfire. • Low Priority
o (FB29) Develop and Improve Evacuation Routes and Public Education for Emergency Evacuations. Develop and enhance additional evacuation routes to improve accessibility and ensure efficient resident evacuation during emergencies. Following the development of these routes, implement a public education campaign to inform community members about evacuation options, procedures, and safe egress during hazardous events.
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2.3.12 Multi-Hazard
• High Priority
o (FB32) Backup Power at Evacuation Shelters. There is a need for backup power at evacuation shelters, specifically requiring a high school facility to be equipped.
The senior center already has backup power in place, and the middle school has a contingency plan for power through the Emergency Operations Center (EOC). o (FB33) Conduct a Site Selection and Feasibility Study for a Resiliency Center.
Conduct a site selection and feasibility study for a Resiliency Center to provide a community accessible hub capable of maintaining essential services before, during, and after hazard events. The center will serve as a backup power facility to remain operational during hazard events and can provide emergency communications and charging stations during power outages, and a cooling and evacuee center for inland disaster refugees. The center will meet seismic safety and evacuation standards.
o (FB34) Study on Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Tsunami Events on Drinking Water. Develop projects to address increased salinity in drinking water intakes due to reduced river levels (drought) paired with king tides, sea level rise, or tsunami effects. (past action ma-CC-FB-204)
o (FB22) Install Backup Power at the Police Department EV Charging Station. The department has six fully electric vehicles that serve as the primary patrol vehicles in the fleet. Evaluate solutions that consider battery storage and other dedicated backup power options.
2.4 Mitigation Capabilities
Planning and regulatory, administrative and technical, financial, and education and outreach capabilities are powerful tools for implementing hazard mitigation. The city currently utilizes or has implemented many of these capabilities, as shown in the lists below.
2.4.1 Planning and Regulatory Capabilities
• Building Codes (Year)
o FBMC 15.04 adopts by reference the most current CBC (2022). This ordinance was passed 05-13-2024
• Land Use Codes
o The City’s Inland and Coastal Land Use Codes (Titles 17.62 and 18.62) require Low Impact Development (LID) practices for all projects that disturb soil. These standards reduce runoff volume and peak flows, helping to mitigate coastal erosion and bluff instability exacerbated by sea level rise and severe storm events
o LID requirements, such as infiltration, on-site retention, and preservation of natural drainage patterns, serve as a primary mitigation capability for reducing Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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sediment delivery to coastal receiving waters and minimizing erosion impacts along the shoreline.
o Because coastal hazards are intensified by increased runoff and sedimentation, the city’s mandatory LID standards serve as an important regulatory tool to reduce pollutant loading and protect nearshore ecosystems. • Zoning Ordinance
o Limits development in high-risk areas, guiding compatible land uses and supporting resilient growth patterns
• Subdivision Ordinance
o Has not yet been updated in several years, except to include SB9 - ADU changes to keep up with State Law
• Hazard-Specific Ordinance
o Floodplain Management (Ch.15.32.170-200); Flood-Related Erosion-Prone areas (Ch. 15.32.200)
• Site Plan Review Requirements
o Design Review Guidelines: Adoption of Objective Design Review Standards for Multi-Family Developments
• Capital Improvement Program or Plan (CIP)
o Updated each fiscal year in June with the annual budget • Erosion / Sediment Control Program
o Article 6 of Inland and Coastal Land Use Codes (17.62 and 18.62) • Stormwater Program, Plan, or Ordinance
o FORT BRAGG OPERATES AS A SMALL PHASE II MS4
• General Plan Safety Element
o Safety is Element 7 of the City's General Plans (Inland and Coastal) • Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP)
o 2025 County-wide CWPP in existence
• Local Emergency Operations Plan
o EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN 2024
• Floodplain Ordinance
o Floodplain Management (Ch.15.32.190-200)
• Flood Insurance Rate Map / DFIRM
o Current Effective Map: 9/19/2025
o Initial FIRM Identified: 12/7/1982
• Flood Insurance Study
o 9/1/2022
• Economic Development
o Leverage grants and public-private partnerships, strengthen long-term community resilience, incentivize investment in infrastructure upgrades Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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o Develop and implement strategy to strengthen the natural and socio-economic resilience of our coastal community and economy
• Other
o ISO Class Rating 3
o Draft Climate Action Plan 2012
2.4.2 Administrative and Technical Capabilities
• Planner/Engineer (Land Development)
• Engineer/Professional (Construction)
• Floodplain Administrator
• Public Information Officer
• Emergency Manager
o City Manager is the emergency services director for the City. • Warning Systems / Services (general)
o MendoAlert. The City uses local radio stations (KOZT FM 95.3 / 95.9), the county website, as well as the city website, and social media to post information about emergency or disaster situations that affect the city.
• Emergency Operations Center
o The City uses VEOCI as its virtual Emergency Operations Center, providing shared access to critical government and non‑government partners during emergencies. • Warning Systems / Services (flood)
• Warning Systems/Services Wildfire
• Warning Systems/Services: Geological hazards
• Mutual Aid
o County-level mutual aid agreements specifically for fire response; no specific local agreements
2.4.3 Financial Capabilities
• Levy for Specific Purposes with Voter Approval
• Utilities Fees
• System Development / Impact Development Fee
• Leveraging grants and public-private partnerships
• General Obligation Bonds to Incur Debt
• Special Tax Bonds to Incur Debt
• Withheld Spending in Hazard-Prone Areas
• Capital Improvement Project Funding
o Recent examples are the Water Treatment Plant Overhaul and the installation of 4 EV Charging stations for Fleet vehicles.
2.4.4 Education and Outreach Capabilities
• Website Dedicated to Hazard Topics
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• Social Media
• Public Hazard Education / Outreach Program/Hazard awareness campaigns (ie. Firewise, Storm Ready, Severe Weather Awareness Week, school programs, public events) • Community Newsletter
• Fire Safe Councils
• Local Citizen Groups That Communicate Hazard Risks
o The Grassroots Institute holds quarterly meetings with both the county and city officials
• Other Relevant Programs or Organizations
o Mendocino County Resource Conservation District
2.4.5 Capability Enhancements
The following lists those specific capabilities that the city will work towards expanding over the next five years. The 2026 Mitigation Actions section also includes several actions that enhance these mitigation capabilities.
• Stormwater programs and plans
• Seismic safety initiatives for dams
• Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP)
• Economic Development Policies and Programs
2.5 Compliance with Floodplain Requirements
TABLE 1 details the city's current policy coverage. As of July 31, 2025, 2 policy claims had been made and paid, totaling $439,593 in payments, including building and content values since 1980. The city has no repetitive-loss properties and no severe-loss properties.
Table 1 City of Fort Bragg NFIP Participation and Insurance Details Date of Entry Initial FHBM
Identified
Initial FIRM
Identified Policies in Force Total Coverage
12/07/1982 5/10/1974 12/7/1982 6 $1,736,000
Source: FEMA Community Status Book and OpenFEMA
The City’s NFIP compliance is implemented through the following designations:
• The City of Fort Bragg Community Development Director has been appointed as the Floodplain Administrator to implement and enforce the provisions of Chapter 15.32 Floodplain Management Ordinance of the Municipal Code and other appropriate Sections of 44 CFR (National Flood Insurance Program regulations) pertaining to floodplain management.
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2.6 Planning Integration
Integrating the HMP into other planning mechanisms is crucial for effectively implementing the mitigation strategy. This also benefits communities by preventing conflicts among planning documents. The City of Fort Bragg incorporated the 2021 HMP into its 2024 Emergency Operation Plan update. Additionally, the City of Fort Bragg intends to integrate the 2026 HMP into hazard mitigation grant applications, as well as future public works planning documents and policies.
2.6.1 Incorporation of Existing Plans and Information
All HMP-relevant existing plans, studies, reports, data, and technical information were reviewed during the planning process. The following list provides an overview of how City of Fort Bragg resources were incorporated into the 2026 HMP. Refer to the Base Plan for a complete list of existing plans and information that was incorporated into this HMP. • These plans helped to inform the hazard profiles in the:
o City of Fort Bragg Coastal General Plan/Safety Element o City of Fort Bragg Emergency Operations Plan
o Fort Bragg Wastewater Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) o Sonoma Mendocino Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy
2.6.2 Economic Development Strategies
The City of Fort Bragg intends to establish economic development strategies to mitigate hazard impacts that reduce economic activity, create economic burdens, and cause economic harm, such as:
• Business Continuity & Resilience Programs
• Economic Diversification
• Resilient Infrastructure Investment
• Disaster Recovery Financing Mechanisms
• Climate Adaptation, Green and Blue Economy Initiatives • Tourism and Waterfront Protection Strategies
2.7 Continuing Public Engagement
The city will maintain its commitment to public engagement through regular stakeholder meetings. Currently, the city participates in approximately 12 to 15 meetings annually. These sessions are designed to involve a range of stakeholders, including grassroots organizations, the Latino Coalition, school districts, community centers, and representatives of vulnerable populations.
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2.8 Changes in Community Priorities
The Steering Committee has elected to prioritize mitigation efforts and resources for natural hazards rather than human-caused hazards, as detailed in the previous plan.
2.8.1 Development Trends
Future development in the City of Fort Bragg is not anticipated to significantly increase exposure or vulnerability to natural hazards. Development along the coastal shoreline is regulated by the California Coastal Commission, limiting increased exposure to coastal hazards and tsunamis. Future growth is not expected to expand development within floodplains, inundation areas, or areas subject to mass earth movements. Compliance with current building codes will further limit vulnerability to hazards such as earthquakes. While overall vulnerability to drought, severe storms, and wildfires is not expected to increase, additional development could result in greater exposure if growth occurs. Overall, existing regulatory frameworks and development standards are expected to effectively manage hazard risk associated with future development.
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3 Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
3.1 Hazard Risk Ranking
TABLE 2 shows the rankings for the City of Fort Bragg. The City of Fort Bragg Steering Committee identified the following hazards that do not currently present an immediate or impactful risk to the district’s assets and are, therefore, not a mitigation priority: extreme cold or freeze and extreme heat.
Table 2 City of Fort Bragg Hazard Risk Ranking
Hazard Risk Rank
Coastal Hazards (Flood, Sea-level rise, Erosion) High
Dam & Levee Incidents High
Drought High
Earthquake High
Extreme Cold or Freeze Not Applicable
Extreme Heat Not Applicable
Flood (Inland) Moderate
Mass Earth Movements (landslides, rock falls, debris flows) Low Severe Storms Moderate
Tsunami Moderate
Wildfire Low
3.2 Exposure Analysis
A lifeline and structure analysis was conducted to identify and assess key assets located within designated hazard risk areas across the city. The results of this analysis support the identification of vulnerabilities within essential systems, thereby informing more targeted and effective mitigation and emergency response strategies.
3.2.1 Lifelines
The lifeline analysis for the City of Fort Bragg identified 35 total structures within city boundaries, as summarized below and shown in FIGURE 2. “Footprint” hazards, those with clearly defined boundaries, were evaluated to determine the number and types of community lifelines exposed within these areas. In addition, local narratives highlight critical facility assets not captured in the quantitative analysis, providing important context for understanding Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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community vulnerabilities. For additional details pertaining to Lifelines, refer to Section 4.3.1 of the Base Plan.
1. Safety and Security: 15 locations
2. Food, Hydration, Shelter: 3 locations
3. Health and Medical: 7 locations
4. Energy: 2 locations
5. Communications: 1 location
6. Transportation: 3 locations
7. Hazardous Materials: 0 locations
8. Water Systems: 2 locations
3.2.2 Parcel Inventory
An analysis was also conducted on parcels exposed to various footprint hazards affecting the City of Fort Bragg. Because this analysis was performed at the parcel level, any parcel with even a portion intersecting a hazard area is considered at risk. Consequently, structures located on these parcels may not be directly within the hazard zone. A summary of the total parcel inventory for the City of Fort Bragg is provided in TABLE 3 and illustrated in FIGURE 3.
Table 3 Total Structures in the City of Fort Bragg
Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 405 $80,111,814 $135,820,286
Industrial 64 $28,752,838 $9,022,888
Institutional 38 $2,708,258 $9,364,938
Miscellaneous 63 $840,176 $1,119,964
Residential 2,242 $230,261,229 $367,765,135
Rural 14 $2,990,554 $648,880
No Data 62 $2,081,667 $2,045,207
Total 2,888 $347,746,536 $525,787,298
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Figure 2 FEMA Lifelines in the City of Fort Bragg
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Figure 3 Parcels in the City of Fort Bragg
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3.3 Coastal Hazards: Flooding, Sea Level Rise, Erosion
3.3.1 Past Events
The National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) reports one coastal flood event affecting Fort Bragg from 1996 to 2024. On January 5, 2023, a parking lot one mile south of the city flooded due to storm surge at high tide.
Additionally, the Steering Committee noted that Kings Tide, the highest annual tides, typically occurring in December and January, have previously damaged city infrastructure. The 2022- 2023 Kings Tide split a roadway, and in 2024 a portion of Mill Creek Road collapsed, blocking vehicle access between Lake Cleone and Laguna Point, shown in FIGURE 4. The California King Tide Project records photos taken of these high tide events, shown in FIGURE 5.
Figure 4 Road to Laguna Point at MacKerricher State Park Collapses Source: ROAD TO LAGUNA POINT AT MACKERRICHER STATE PARK COLLAPSES – FORT BRAGG ADVOCATE-NEWS Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Figure 5 MacKerricher State Park, Fort Bragg, 12/5/2021 Source: CALIFORNIA KING TIDES PROJECT
3.3.2 Location
Coastal hazards primarily affect the city's western edge, nearest the shoreline, but saltwater intrusion can impact water sources city-wide. Sea-level rise and coastal flood zones may raise water levels in Pudding Creek (north) and the Noyo River (south), which surround the city.
These risk areas are shown in the figures below, with sea-level rise shown in FIGURE 6 and FEMA coastal high-hazard flood zones are indicated in FIGURE 7.
The County of Mendocino’s ongoing sea-level rise planning focuses on understanding how rising seas will intensify coastal flooding, erosion, and storm-driven impacts over time.
Projections indicate that rising sea levels will increase the frequency of tidal flooding, accelerate bluff and shoreline erosion, and amplify storm-surge effects, putting roads, infrastructure, and coastal communities at risk. Draft mapping (as of April 2026) from this analysis is presented in FIGURE 8 - FIGURE 13. Note: This draft data was not utilized for any analysis in the following exposure analysis.
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Figure 6 Sea-Level Rise Risk Areas in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Figure 7 Coastal High Hazard Zones (FEMA Zones V and VE) in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 25
Figure 8 Expected Tidal Inundation in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 26
Figure 9 Expected Tidal Inundation in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 27
Figure 10 Expected Erosion Areas in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 28
Figure 11 Expected Erosion Areas in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 29
Figure 12 Expected Coastal Flood Areas in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 30
Figure 13 Expected Coastal Flood Areas in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 31
3.3.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Steering Committee noted the Oceanlake Adult Mobile Home Park, with approximately 60 units, is highly vulnerable to flooding. Its low-lying coastal location places residents, many of whom may have limited mobility, at increased risk during coastal hazard events and complicates evacuation and emergency response efforts.
Additionally, people with limited transportation, mobility challenges, or limited access to emergency information may face greater difficulty evacuating quickly.
3.3.3.1 Community Lifelines
The Steering Committee noted concerns with limited evacuation routes in low-lying coastal areas presenting a major risk during coastal flooding, potentially delaying evacuations and endangering lives. Although the city owns the surrounding land, the roadway falls under county jurisdiction, complicating improvements. Aging sewer infrastructure, including a low-lying lift station and old pipelines, is vulnerable to failure. Coastal erosion has already impacted public access, with portions of the Pomo Bluff Trail lost to bluff retreat.
Transportation access to and from the City of Fort Bragg is uniquely constrained. The community is served by only two primary corridors (Highway 1 and Highway 20) which function as critical lifelines for evacuation, emergency response, supply delivery, and medical access.
Both corridors are highly vulnerable to hazard-related closures. Structural impacts to the Hare Creek Bridge and Pudding Creek Bridge during severe storms, coastal surge events, or landslides on Highway 20 can fully isolate the community for extended periods.
Fort Bragg’s geographic isolation significantly increases the consequences of hazard events.
Limited evacuation routes in low-lying coastal areas restrict the ability to move residents away from tsunami, coastal flooding, and storm surge hazards. Any closure of Highway 1 or Highway 20 delays emergency response, disrupts access to fuel and food, and limits the ability to evacuate vulnerable populations. These transportation constraints affect all hazard types and represent one of the City’s most significant multi-hazard vulnerabilities.
The following is a detailed exposure analysis of lifelines located in areas at risk from sea-level rise and coastal high hazards.
3.3.3.1.1 Sea-Level Rise Risk
The community analysis identified one bridge located within an area of high sea-level-rise risk.
3.3.3.1.2 Coastal High Hazard Areas (Zone V and VE)
The lifeline analysis indicates that no critical facilities within the City of Fort Bragg are located in coastal high-hazard areas, classified as FEMA Zones V and VE.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 32
3.3.3.2 Parcels
3.3.3.2.1 Sea-Level Rise Risk
The parcel analysis found that most parcels located in moderate- to high-risk areas within the City of Fort Bragg are classified as residential or commercial. The results are summarized in TABLE 4 below.
Table 4 Fort Bragg Parcels Exposed to Sea Level Rise (Moderate-High Risk) Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 25 $4,077,083 $4,515,067
Industrial 9 $4,353,978 $382,415
Institutional 2 $0 $0
Miscellaneous 17 $136,765 $0
Residential 26 $4,002,799 $2,324,069
Rural 2 $7,457 $0
No Data 3 $0 $0
Total 84 $12,578,082 $7,221,551
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department
3.3.3.2.2 Coastal High Hazard Zones (Zone V and VE)
The parcel analysis for the City of Fort Bragg is summarized below in TABLE 5. Residential structures represent the largest category of buildings exposed to coastal high-hazard zones.
Table 5 Fort Bragg Parcels Exposed to Coastal High Hazard Zones (Zone V and VE) Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 3 $1,016,021 $833,841
Industrial 6 $3,204,760 $0
Institutional 2 $0 $0
Miscellaneous 5 $0 $0
Residential 9 $887,172 $638,938
Rural 0 $0 $0
No Data 1 $0 $0
Total 26 $5,107,953 $1,472,779
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 33
3.4 Dam & Levee Failure
3.4.1 Past Events
In December 2016, Northern California’s coastal areas experienced heavy rainfall due to an atmospheric river. The resulting flood led to the Pudding Creek Dam overflowing, which damaged both the dam and a main water pipe supplying Fort Bragg. Fortunately, there was no reported damage within the city itself. This event resulted in the city relocating the water main to the bridge.
3.4.2 Location
The McGuire Dam, classified as a high-hazard potential dam, is privately owned. The dam is located upstream on the Noyo River. In the event of a dam failure or incident, inundation areas could extend to and along the city boundaries, as shown in FIGURE 14 below.
The Mill Pond Dam is a low-hazard potential dam within city limits. This dam is a high priority for the city as it is currently out of compliance with the Division of Safety of Dams and vulnerable to increasing storm and wave activity. Even though Mendocino Railway owns the dam, multiple agencies (California Department of Toxic Substances Control, California Division of Safety of Dams, California Coastal Commission, and the City of Fort Bragg) are heavily involved in oversight, cleanup, and future plans for the site.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 34
Figure 14 Dam Inundation Areas in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 35
3.4.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
Older adults, people with disabilities, low-income households, and residents without reliable transportation may face greater difficulty receiving warnings or responding in time.
3.4.3.1 Community Lifelines
The community lifeline analysis found no exposed assets within the City of Fort Bragg, indicating minimal vulnerability of critical facilities to assessed hazards. However, the Steering Committee noted that Mill Pond is currently out of regulatory compliance and poses a risk of contaminating downstream water sources and communities in the event of flooding or infrastructure failure.
3.4.3.2 Parcels
A total of 38 parcels that lie partially within the City of Fort Bragg boundary are located within dam inundation areas. Although the dam inundation zones do not fully extend into the city limits, they are directly adjacent, leaving some parcels partially exposed. Because these parcels span both inside and outside the city boundary, only portions of them are likely to experience impacts from a potential dam incident. Overall, residential parcels represent the largest share of those exposed, as shown in TABLE 6 below.
Table 6 Fort Bragg Parcels Exposed to Dam Inundation Areas Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 12 $1,647,439 $1,913,082
Industrial 3 $1,111,090 $289,855
Institutional 0 $0 $0
Miscellaneous 4 $22,486 $0
Residential 14 $2,604,460 $1,685,131
Rural 2 $7,457 $0
No Data 3 $0 $0
Total 38 $5,392,932 $3,888,068
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department
3.5 Drought
3.5.1 Past Events
According to records from the U.S. Drought Monitor, during the 1,305-week period from January 1, 2000, through January 1, 2025, the City of Fort Bragg spent 586 weeks (45% of the time period) in some level of drought, defined as Abnormally Dry (D0) or worse conditions. This period includes 321 weeks of Severe Drought (D2), 122 weeks of Extreme Drought (D3), and 31 Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 36
weeks of Exceptional Drought (D4). FIGURE 15 illustrates these periods of extreme and exceptional drought, including the duration of these occurrences and the range of affected county percentages.
Figure 15 Periods of Drought in the City of Fort Bragg, January 2000 – January 2025
3.5.2 Location
The entire City of Fort Bragg is vulnerable to the impacts of drought.
3.5.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Fort Bragg Steering Committee developed the following problem statements, which identify local vulnerability to drought events.
• Drought along with sea level rise or coastal flooding could cause the river intake to be infiltrated by saltwater.
• City sees increased tourist populations and increased water use in summers, which poses additional challenges in drought years.
• Limited water storage means drought has a significant effect on the city’s water supply.
Additional storage or alternative water supplies, including desalinization, are needed. • The City of Fort Bragg relies primarily on surface water, making its water supply highly vulnerable to seasonal variability and prolonged drought. • Aging infrastructure adds to the risk, threatening the reliability and resilience of the city's water system, the city’s top critical infrastructure concern. • Saltwater infiltration reduces the city’s ability to pull fresh groundwater for treatment. • Fort Bragg’s summer tourist population can increase water demand during drought years.
• Low-income households, renters, older adults, medically fragile residents, and residents with limited English proficiency may have fewer resources to adapt.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 37
3.6 Earthquake
3.6.1 Past Events
The only earthquake recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with an epicenter located within the City of Fort Bragg occurred on June 25, 2011, and had a magnitude of 2.8. This event did not result in any reported damage.
Earthquakes occurring outside of the City’s boundaries can also cause damage to local infrastructure. In 2024, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake prompted the Governor to declare a state of emergency and triggered a tsunami warning for much of coastal Northern California and Oregon, which was later canceled. In response, the City of Fort Bragg quickly evacuated residents of the Ocean Lake Adult Mobile Home Park, located just north of the Pudding Creek Bridge, after the National Weather Service issued the warning. Reports from across the North Coast indicated impacts such as broken glass and possible structural damage to residences.1
3.6.2 Location
Fort Bragg has no active faults, but the San Andreas fault lies 9 miles west, and the Maacama fault is 22 miles east. Refer to Section 4.8 of the Base Plan for county fault lines that could affect earthquake risk in the city.
3.6.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Fort Bragg Steering Committee developed the following problem statements, which identify local vulnerability to earthquake events.
• A significant number of residential homes and commercial buildings in Fort Bragg are older construction, pre-1974, and may require additional retrofitting. • The Steering Committee noted that the city’s aging water distribution lines are extremely vulnerable during an earthquake event.
• The transportation and emergency services network could experience major disruptions due to landslides.
• If Pudding Creek, Noyo River, and/or Hare Creek Bridges become unusable following a seismic event, people may not be able to evacuate, and emergency access would be blocked. This could also isolate the city from supply chains and delay the delivery of critical resources, such as fuel for emergency services, generators, and other essential operations.
• The Mill Pond Dam is not expected to withstand a major seismic event. • Key facilities, including the Fire Department, Hospital, Corporation Yard, and numerous residential structures, lack adequate seismic protection, further elevating risk. • People living or working in older buildings may face greater risk. 1 EARTHQUAKE BOUNCES HOUSES AND CAUSES DAMAGE IN FORT BRAGG AND ELSEWHERE • THE MENDOCINO VOICE | MENDOCINO
COUNTY, CA
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 38
• Older adults, people with disabilities, renters, and lower-income households may also face greater challenges evacuating, sheltering, and recovering.
3.7 Flood (Inland)
Inland flooding relates to non-coastal riverine flood events.
3.7.1 Past Events
Many flood events in the Fort Bragg area go unreported because they result in limited or no documented property damage, do not trigger formal river flood stages, or affect small, ungauged waterways. However, atmospheric river storms and strong winter storm systems can still produce localized flooding, particularly in small creeks, low-lying neighborhoods, coastal drainage areas, and near vulnerable waterways such as the Noyo River and smaller tributaries.
According to the NCEI database, Fort Bragg experienced one notable inland flooding event on December 15, 2016. Heavy rain from an atmospheric river caused floods and landslides in Northwest California. Three counties, including the County of Mendocino, declared emergencies, with damages reaching several million dollars. In Fort Bragg, the Pudding Creek Dam overflowed, damaging the dam and a main water line.
Additionally, a flood advisory on December 21, 2025, an atmospheric river–driven winter storm brought heavy rainfall to the Fort Bragg area, prompting NWS Flood Watches and Advisories.
The storm caused elevated creek and stream levels, localized ponding in low-lying areas, and minor roadway flooding.
3.7.2 Location
In Fort Bragg, potential flooding is primarily associated with the Noyo River and Pudding Creek, where heavy rainfall can lead to elevated water levels, overflow into adjacent low-lying areas, and localized impacts to nearby roads, trails, and developed areas. There are no mapped 500- year flood zones within the city; however, 100-year flood zones are present, as shown in FIGURE 16 below. In addition, Mendocino County has identified flood awareness zones that indicate areas where flooding is possible but may not be fully mapped or studied by FEMA, particularly along smaller creeks and drainage corridors.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 39
Figure 16 FEMA 100-Year Floodplain in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 40
3.7.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Steering Committee noted the Ocean lake Adult Mobile Home Park, with approximately 60 units, is highly vulnerable to flooding. Its low-lying coastal location places residents, many of whom may have limited mobility, at increased risk during coastal hazard events and complicates evacuation and emergency response efforts.
In general, residents with limited mobility, income, transportation, or English proficiency may need additional support to receive warnings and evacuate.
3.7.3.1 Community Lifelines
The lifeline analysis for the City of Fort Bragg identified one bridge within the 100-year floodplain, with no lifelines located in the 500-year floodplain or in floodplain awareness zones, indicating limited exposure of critical infrastructure to flood hazards.
3.7.3.2 Parcels
The parcel analysis for the City of Fort Bragg found 76 parcels located in the FEMA 100-Year Floodplain, the majority of which are commercial parcels, summarized in TABLE 7 below. The analysis found that no parcels are located within the 500-year floodplain or floodplain awareness zones.
Table 7 Fort Bragg Parcels in the 100-Year Floodplain
Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 27 $3,866,822 $4,828,808
Industrial 4 $1,149,218 $382,415
Institutional 0 $0 $0
Miscellaneous 17 $136,765 $0
Residential 21 $3,614,785 $1,685,131
Rural 4 $36,691 $56,152
No Data 3 $0 $0
100-Year
Floodplain Total 76 $8,804,281 $6,952,506
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department
3.8 Mass Earth Movements: Landslides, Rock Falls, & Debris Flow
3.8.1 Past Events
Mendocino County, including Fort Bragg, has experienced multiple landslides, details of which are in the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment section of the Base Plan.
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 41
Recently, at Todd’s Point in Fort Bragg, part of a bluff collapsed during rainstorms and high surf in January of 2024. While the nearby hiking trail was not affected, the incident moved the cliff’s edge closer to the path, prompting public works to block off the area. This highlights the instability of such ground and the need for caution. FIGURE 17 below illustrates the event.
Figure 17 Todd’s Point Bluff Collapse
Source: FORT BRAGG BLUFF SECTION COLLAPSES NEAR POPULAR HIKING TRAIL - BLISSS MAGAZINE
3.8.2 Location
In Fort Bragg, landslide risk is concentrated along the city’s coastal bluffs and steep shoreline areas, where erosion, heavy rainfall, and wave action can trigger slope failures. Notably, the Pomo Bluffs near Todd’s Point have experienced bluff collapses following winter storms, demonstrating ongoing instability along the bluff edge that can impact trails and nearby areas.
Additional landslide susceptibility exists on steep inland slopes around the city’s perimeter, particularly during periods of intense rainfall or seismic activity. FIGURE 18 below shows these mapped risk areas.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 42
Figure 18 Landslide Risk Areas in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 43
3.8.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Steering Committee noted a major landslide on Highway 20 could cut off the primary route connecting the coast to inland Mendocino County, isolating communities like Fort Bragg. This would disrupt emergency response, supply deliveries, and evacuation efforts. While a secondary hazard to earthquakes, its impact on regional connectivity is critical. People with limited mobility, limited transportation, or limited access to emergency information may be more affected.
3.8.3.1 Community Lifelines
The community lifeline analysis found that there is one bridge located within very high landslide risk areas. There are no lifelines in high-risk areas. This indicates limited overall exposure of critical infrastructure to landslide hazards. No debris flow or rockfall hazard areas have been mapped within the city boundaries.
Transportation access to and from the City of Fort Bragg is uniquely constrained. The community is served by only two primary corridors (Highway 1 and Highway 20) which function as critical lifelines for evacuation, emergency response, supply delivery, and medical access.
Both corridors are highly vulnerable to hazard-related closures.
3.8.3.2 Parcels
The parcel analysis for the City of Fort Bragg is summarized below in TABLE 8. Residential structures represent the largest category of buildings exposed to high to very high landslide risk areas.
Table 8 Fort Bragg Parcels Exposed to Landslide (High-Very High Risk Areas) Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 75 $19,890,704 $38,544,420
Industrial 21 $11,876,105 $1,172,548
Institutional 4 $278,014 $357,237
Miscellaneous 36 $631,971 $965,682
Residential 249 $29,933,543 $43,758,240
Rural 12 $2,916,664 $604,031
No Data 16 $685,962 $827,061
Total 413 $66,212,963 $86,229,219
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 44
3.9 Severe Storms
3.9.1 Past Events
The following records are noted in the NCEI Storm Events database as severe storm events directly impacting the City of Fort Bragg or in the vicinity of Fort Bragg. None of the events recorded casualties.
• December 5, 1998 - A tornado made landfall near the mouth of the Noyo River, causing damage to a mobile home and uprooting trees. The tornado crossed Highway 1, damaging the roofs of both a motel and a courthouse, and uprooted additional trees near a hospital emergency room.
• November 11, 2002 - High winds along the coast led to the downing of numerous trees, branches, and power lines. In Fort Bragg, two trees fell on a residence, resulting in minor property damage.
• January 8, 2017 - Severe winds caused trees to fall on a county-owned building and fences in Fort Bragg, resulting in damage; however, the exact time remains unconfirmed. The estimated property damage from the event totaled $17,000. • February 18, 2024 - A storm system delivered rainfall and wind to Northwest California, occurring several weeks after a significant wind event on February 4th. This convective system produced intermittent wind gusts exceeding 58 mph on regional ridgetops, with reports of downed trees across Highway 1 along the Mendocino coast south of Fort Bragg.
• March 1, 2024 - The passage of a deep trough resulted in widespread hail showers and substantial snowfall, measuring several feet in the mountains. Coastal hail showers contributed to multiple traffic accidents. Law enforcement documented nonthunderstorm wind damage approximately one mile north-northeast of Fort Bragg, CA. • March 2, 2024 - Another deep trough brought extensive hail showers and snow to Northwest California, with heavy mountain snow accumulations and coastal traffic incidents. A tree blocked Highway 1 north of the Ten Mile River. Law enforcement reported additional non-thunderstorm wind damage nine miles north-northeast of Fort Bragg, CA, as well as a tree down across two lanes two miles north of Fort Bragg, CA. • December 13, 2024 - The arrival of a strong upper-level low-pressure system, accompanied by an enhanced upper-level jet, intensified area showers. Resulting washouts and landslides caused significant disruption and destruction. A tree was reported down in the roadway nine miles south of Fort Bragg, CA.
3.9.2 Location
All of the City of Fort Bragg is at risk of severe storm events.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 45
3.9.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Fort Bragg Steering Committee developed the following problem statements, which identify local vulnerability to severe storm events.
• The city experiences power loss from extreme weather approximately three times a year for a day or two. The power system is the city’s top critical infrastructure vulnerability.
• Loss of power for medical baseline customers may cause additional health effects. • Older adults, mobile home residents, people with disabilities, and households without backup power or reliable transportation may need targeted preparedness and poststorm support.
3.10 Tsunami
3.10.1 Past Events
Fort Bragg has received several tsunami warnings in recent years, although none have resulted in damage. The most significant occurred in 2011, when an earthquake in Japan prompted surges along the California coast and caused damage to Noyo Harbor. Further information about these events can be found in the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment section of the Base Plan.
3.10.2 Location
In Fort Bragg, the areas most vulnerable to tsunamis are the low-lying coastal zones, beaches, and harbor areas, particularly around Noyo Harbor and the shoreline adjacent to the city. These locations are at risk of inundation from incoming waves, strong currents, and harbor surges.
Elevated infrastructure and inland areas are generally less exposed, but tsunami hazard maps identify these waterfront and low-lying zones as the primary areas requiring evacuation and preparedness during tsunami events. These tsunami risk areas are shown in FIGURE 19.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 46
Figure 19 Tsunami Risk Areas in the City of Fort Bragg
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 47
3.10.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Steering Committee noted that the tsunami warning system serving the area above Ocean View RV Park is currently non-operational, posing a significant life safety risk to the nearby vulnerable population. Their close coastal location and limited evacuation time make reliable warnings critical.
Additionally, residents with limited mobility, limited transportation, language barriers, or limited access to alerts may face greater difficulty reaching safe areas in time.
3.10.3.1 Community Lifelines
The community lifeline analysis found no lifelines within tsunami risk areas.
3.10.3.2 Parcels
The parcel analysis identified 122 parcels within tsunami risk areas in the City of Fort Bragg, with residential parcels representing the largest share of those exposed. The results are summarized in TABLE 9 below.
Table 9 Fort Bragg Parcels in Tsunami Risk Areas
Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 37 $8,995,651 $11,367,638
Industrial 10 $4,353,978 $382,415
Institutional 2 $0 $0
Miscellaneous 21 $191,030 $0
Residential 45 $8,396,709 $9,615,100
Rural 4 $2,008,388 $302,254
No Data 3 $0 $0
Total 122 $23,945,756 $21,667,407
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department
3.11 Wildfire
3.11.1 Past Events
Fort Bragg has primarily experienced small vegetation and brush fires within or near the city in recent years, rather than large, destructive wildfires. Larger historical fires in Mendocino County (like the 2018 Mendocino Complex and 2020 August Complex) have shaped the regional wildfire risk environment, even if their fronts didn’t reach the city itself. Details on these events can be found in the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment portion of the Base Plan.
The fires that have impacted near the City of Fort Bragg since the previous HMP update include:
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 48
• May 2021: The Noyo Bluffs Vegetation Fire - A small brush fire originating in a homeless encampment spread into vegetation along the Noyo Bluffs near Noyo Point Road, burning a portion of the bluff before being contained by local fire crews.2 • August 2021: Grass/Vegetation Fire - Firefighters responded to a small vegetation fire south of Fort Bragg near Georges and Rhoda Lanes, where downed power lines were involved in the blaze and around 11 PG&E customers lost electricity; the fire had a slow rate of spread and aircraft response was initially planned but later canceled.3 • September 2025: Company Fire - CAL FIRE responded to a small wildfire about eight miles east of Fort Bragg near Sherwood Road, destroying one structure before full response operations were canceled.4
Additionally, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) maintains geospatial data regarding wildfire events throughout the county, as illustrated in FIGURE 20 below. The event that occurred within city boundaries was designated as the Johnson Fire, which was documented to have burned only 0.1 acres.
2 FT. BRAGG MAN ARRESTED ON ARSON AFTER OCEANFRONT FIRE SPREADS TOWARD RESERVATION • THE MENDOCINO VOICE |
MENDOCINO COUNTY, CA
3 POWER LINES DOWN AND INVOLVED IN SMALL VEGETATION FIRE WITH SLOW RATE OF SPREAD NEAR FORT BRAGG — 11 PG&E CUSTOMERS LOSE SERVICE • THE MENDOCINO VOICE | MENDOCINO COUNTY, CA 4 [UPDATE: ALL UNITS CANCELLED] CAL FIRE RESPONDS TO COMPANY FIRE EAST OF FORT BRAGG; ONE STRUCTURE DESTROYED -
REDHEADED BLACKBELT
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 49
Figure 20 Historical Wildfires in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 50
3.11.2 Location
Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) classify areas as having moderate, high, or very high wildfire hazard based on factors such as fuel loading, slope, fire weather, and wind conditions that influence fire behavior and spread (CAL FIRE). State Responsibility Areas (SRA) are generally rural or undeveloped lands where CAL FIRE provides wildland fire protection, while Local Responsibility Areas (LRA) are more developed areas where fire protection is provided by local fire agencies. For the purposes of this analysis, SRA and LRA were mapped together to provide full coverage of the planning area. Risk analysis focused on assets located within high to very high FHSZ, which represents the greatest wildfire hazard. FIGURE 21 shows the Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the City of Fort Bragg.
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Figure 21 Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the City of Fort Bragg Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 52
3.11.3 Local Exposure and Vulnerability
The Steering Committee noted that Fort Bragg has limited evacuation routes, posing risks during fast-moving wildfires. Road congestion or blockages could delay evacuations and emergency response, increasing threats to life safety. While the city’s interior faces limited wildfire risk, expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas east of the city elevate evacuation concerns, primarily as a secondary hazard.
Although not directly impacted by some of the larger wildfires in the county (Mendocino Complex and August Complex), the city experienced a significant increase in the need for evacuee refugees. Hotels, campgrounds, and even family residences were overwhelmed by the need to house and feed inland evacuees seeking safe haven. These events had a significant impact on water supply and food supply, given the city’s remote location and limited resources.
Smoke may be especially harmful for older adults, children, people with respiratory conditions, and medically fragile residents. Residents without reliable vehicles, renters, lower-income households, and people with disabilities may face greater challenges during evacuation and recovery.
3.11.3.1 Community Lifelines
The community lifeline analysis identified one Safety and Security facility in high Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the City of Fort Bragg. Additionally, the Steering Committee noted that development on the east side of the City of Fort Bragg is expanding toward the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI), creating heightened concern for wildfire exposure. Overall, wildfire risk within city boundaries is generally moderate, with some areas experiencing minimal to no risk. The city may serve as an evacuation center for inland wildfire events; however, this role raises concerns about the potential compounding effects of concurrent hazards such as drought or public health emergencies.
3.11.3.2 Parcels
The parcel analysis for the City of Fort Bragg is summarized below in TABLE 10. Residential structures represent the largest category of buildings exposed to high wildfire risk areas.
Table 10 Fort Bragg Parcels Exposed to Wildfire Risk Areas (High Risk) Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
Commercial 39 $11,127,076 $25,183,176
Industrial 10 $4,434,594 $5,354,187
Institutional 5 $675,613 $820,255
Miscellaneous 19 $491,726 $965,682
Residential 185 $26,897,989 $37,712,441
Rural 2 $1,994,846 $302,254
Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 53
Use Type Parcel Count Land Value Improved Value
No Data 10 $300,163 $145,825
Total 270 $45,922,007 $70,483,820
Source: The County of Mendocino Assessor’s Office and GIS Department Mendocino County Hazard Mitigation Plan
City of Fort Bragg Jurisdictional Annex
Appendix A Adoption Resolution 54
Appendix A Adoption Resolution