A Potential Foster City Business
License Tax Modernization Measure
Key Findings of a Randomized Voter Survey
220-7138
2 Dates March 24-31, 2024
Survey Type Dual-mode Voter Survey
Research Population Likely November 2024 Voters in Foster City Total Interviews 343
Margin of Sampling Error (Full Sample) ±5.7% at the 95% Confidence Level (Half Sample) ±7.9% at the 95% Confidence Level
Contact Methods
Data Collection Modes
(Note: Not All Results Will Sum to 100% Due to Rounding) Text
Invitations
Telephone
Calls
Email
Invitations
Telephone
Interviews
Online
Interviews
Survey Methodology
3 Electoral Context
4 Q1.
Right
Direction
55%
Wrong
Track
17%Don't
Know
28%
Foster City voters are optimistic
about the direction of the city.
Would you say things in Foster City are going in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
5 Q8. ^Not Part of Split Sample
38%
32%
23%
18%
19%
18%
14%
30%
26%
22%
20%
19%
14%
15%
18%
29%
20%
29%
26%
25%
28%
11%
11%
33%
25%
32%
39%
19%
7%
24%
The cost of housing
^The cost of living
Traffic congestion on local streets and roads
Water quality in the lagoon
Sea level rise
^Too much growth and development
Waste and inefficiency in City government
Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. Smwt. Ser. Prob. Not a Prob. No Opinion/Don't Know Ext./Very Ser. Prob.
68%
58%
45%
39%
38%
32%
29%
The cost of housing and cost of living are the only
problems that majorities view as “very serious.”
I’m going to read you a list of things some people say may be problems facing Foster City.
Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem for Foster City residents. 6 Q8. I’m going to read you a list of things some people say may be problems facing Foster City. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem for Foster City residents. ^Not Part of Split Sample 8%
14%
8%
6%
6%
5%
20%
13%
11%
9%
5%
24%
33%
38%
30%
17%
18%
11%
20%
27%
43%
45%
69%
70%
49%
28%
12%
10%
36%
^A lack of support for local businesses
^Jobs and the economy
Potholes and street repair
Crime, in general
Homelessness
The condition of parks and open space
911 emergency response times
Ext. Ser. Prob. Very Ser. Prob. Smwt. Ser. Prob. Not a Prob. No Opinion/Don't Know Ext./Very Ser. Prob.
28%
27%
19%
15%
11%
10%
4%
Very few worry about crime, homelessness,
parks, and emergency response times.
7 Q2.
11%
8%
6%
38%
36%
32%
5%
8%
11%
22%
22%
34%
19%
21%
13%
5%Foster City
city government
Foster City's
City Council
The Foster City
Chamber of Commerce
Very Fav. Smwt. Fav. Never Heard of Can't Rate Smwt. Unfav. Very Unfav. Total Fav.
Total
Unfav.
50% 24%
44% 26%
39% 16%
Voters have net favorable opinions of city government,
the City Council, and the local chamber of commerce.
I am going to read you a list of names of some local institutions that are often in the public eye.
Please tell me if your overall impression of that institution is favorable or unfavorable. +26%
+23%
+18%
8 Q7.
13%
30%
14%
24%
19%
Great need
Some need
A little need
No real need
Don't know
A Little/
No Real Need
38%
Great/
Some Need
43%
Only two in five see an appreciable need for funding
for city services; only one in ten see a “great need.”
In your personal opinion, do you think there is a great need, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funds to provide uninterrupted levels of City services that Foster City residents need and want?
9 Reactions to a
Potential BLT Measure
10 Hypothetical Ballot Measure Language
Q3. Do you think you would vote “yes” or “no” on this measure? Foster City Business License Modernization and City Services Measure.
To maintain essential city services — such as police/fire protection, 911 response, and parks/street maintenance — shall Foster City adopt an ordinance increasing its business license tax by up to (SPLIT SAMPLE C: 0.225%) (SPLIT SAMPLE D: 0.3%) on gross receipts — with a $100 minimum, smaller businesses paying lower rates, and a maximum tax cap — generating approximately
(SPLIT SAMPLE C: $2,100,000) (SPLIT SAMPLE D: $3,400,000) annually until ended by voters for general government use, and requiring independent audits and all funds used locally?
(General-purpose; 50% Vote Threshold)
11 Q3 Split C & D. Do you think you would vote “yes” or “no” on this measure? While a majority expressed support at the 0.3% rate,
there was more ambivalence at the 0.225% rate.
22%
27%
8%
2%
12%
18%
11%
15%
21%
9%
4%
14%
22%
15%
0.225% 0.3%
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
No
41%
Total
Yes
44%
Total
No
32%
Total
Yes
57%
12 Q4a.
“Yes” voters indicated support for
funding services and benefiting the city.
In a few words of your own, why would you vote YES on the measure? 26%
16%
13%
11%
10%
8%
8%
5%
4%
3%
5%
5%
(Open-ended; Asked of Yes Voters Only, n=175)
Maintaining (improving) essential services/city services It would benefit the city (community)/city needs/needed funds for the city Would rather tax businesses/pay their fair share/
small cost to businesses
Funding first responders (police/firefighters/EMS)
To maintain the safety of the public (community)/a safer city Maintaining infrastructure/city roads/sidewalks
It is a minor increase/natural progression/reasonable increase General positive/support/YES
More information needed/where would the funds come from? Inflation/cost of living
Other
Refused/no comment
13 In a few words of your own, why would you vote NO on the measure? The “no” vote was driven by anti-tax sentiment
and concern that it will push out businesses.
Q4b.
(Open-ended; Asked of No Voters Only, n=125)
37%
34%
20%
16%
12%
8%
2%
1%
Taxes are already too high/No new taxes
Business will struggle/Leave
Adds to inflation/Cost of living
Mismanagement of funds
General Negative
Other
Don't Know/Unsure
Find other ways to generate revenue/Additional services 14 44%
57%
67%
59%
41%
36%
26% 30%
15%
7% 7% 11%
Initial
Vote
Explanation
Vote
Midpoint
Vote
Final
Vote
Total No
Total Yes
Undecided
Q3, Q5, Q11 & Q12. (Split C) Do you think you would vote “yes” or “no” on this measure? 50%
Support for the 0.225% tax rate
exceeded 50% as voters learned more.
0.225% Tax Rate (8% MOE)
15 57%
64% 68%
60%
32%
26% 24%
30%
11% 10% 8% 10%
Initial
Vote
Explanation
Vote
Midpoint
Vote
Final
Vote
Total No
Total Yes
Undecided
Q3, Q5, Q11 & Q12. (Split D) Do you think you would vote “yes” or “no” on this measure? 50%
Support for the 0.3% tax rate was
above 50% throughout the survey.
0.3% Tax Rate (8% MOE)
16 Q3 & Q12. (Total) Do you think you would vote “yes” or “no” on this measure? Combining rates, support increases to
60% after all information, but only one-quarter
said they would “definitely” vote yes.
27%
26%
6%
3%
6%
21%
11%
19%
24%
9%
3%
13%
20%
13%
Initial Vote After
Hypothetical Ballot Language
Final Vote After Supportive
and Critical Statements
Definitely yes
Probably yes
Undecided, lean yes
Undecided, lean no
Probably no
Definitely no
Undecided
Total
No
36%
Total
Yes
51%
Total
No
30%
Total
Yes
60%
17 Measure Structure &
Investment Priorities
18 56%
40%
29%
30%
19%
21%
21%
27%
37%
36%
32%
41%
36%
32%
5%
5%
10%
15%
6%
20%
17%
6%
8%
12%
10%
19%
12%
17%
6%
10%
11%
13%
15%
12%
14%
Maintaining the minimum business tax
of $100 per year for small businesses
Creating tiers so that medium to large
businesses pay a lower tax rate than
the largest businesses
Adjusting the minimum business tax
annually to account for inflation
^Phasing in the tax on the largest
businesses that have more than
$25 million in gross receipts
Adjusting the maximum business tax
annually to account for inflation
Establishing a maximum business tax of
no more than $500,000 per year
Establishing a maximum business tax of
no more than $250,000 per year
Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Don't Know Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp.
Voters are most supportive of maintaining
the $100 minimum and creating tiers.
Q6.The final structure of this proposed ballot measure has not yet been finalized. Here are some potential elements of the measure under consideration.
Please tell me if you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this element. ^Not Part of Split Sample Total
Supp.
Total
Opp.
83% 12%
77% 18%
66% 24%
61% 23%
60% 34%
56% 24%
53% 30%
19 48%
33%
45%
41%
41%
36%
30%
28%
31%
41%
26%
29%
29%
34%
39%
41%
19%
18%
20%
14%
12%
24%
26%
22%
7%
9%
14%
17%
8%
Maintaining fire protection
and response
Retaining and attracting
qualified police officers
Preventing property crime
Maintaining infrastructure to
prevent flooding
Providing safe routes to school
for children
Maintaining the city's
stormwater infrastructure
Repairing streets, roads,
and potholes
Maintaining the City's
financial stability
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt. Don't Know Ext./Very Impt.
79%
73%
71%
71%
70%
70%
69%
69%
Q9. Split Sample
Many of voters’ top investment priorities are
related to public safety and infrastructure.
I am going to read you a list of City projects and programs. If additional funds were made available — either from the potential measure we discussed or from another source — please tell me how important increasing spending on each project or program would be to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important.
20 30%
31%
24%
31%
25%
20%
18%
31%
26%
38%
33%
40%
32%
38%
34%
32%
19%
20%
24%
23%
29%
22%
27%
28%
36%
28%
30%
7%
12%
6%
9%
8%
17%
14%
22%
23%
6%
^Supporting local businesses
Maintaining levee systems to protect
from sea level rise
Protecting parks and open spaces
Maintaining 911
emergency response times
Maintaining youth and
recreation programs
Supporting local economic development
Fixing streets, roads and potholes
Funding programs to make
housing more affordable
Reducing local traffic congestion
Ext. Impt. Very Impt. Smwt. Impt. Not Too Impt. Don't Know Ext./Very Impt.
68%
64%
64%
63%
63%
53%
51%
50%
46%
Q9. I am going to read you a list of City projects and programs. If additional funds were made available — either from the potential measure we discussed or from another source — please tell me how important increasing spending on each project or program would be to you personally: extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important. ^Not Part of Split Sample Supporting local economic development and
road repairs were least likely to be “extremely important.” 21 Conclusions
22 Electoral Context
• Foster City voters are optimistic about the direction of their city and have a favorable view of city government. • Additionally, few problems in the community are seen as very serious by a majority of voters, with the exceptions of the cost of housing—and more broadly—the cost of living. • In that context, only two in five see a need for additional funding for city services.
23 Perceptions of
the City Voters view City government favorably and feel optimistic about Foster City’s future.
Perceptions of
Need
Approximately one in ten perceive that the City has a “great” need for additional funding.
Initial Vote
(Total)
This is complicated by the differences in rates where the higher tax rate enjoyed a greater “yes” vote. However, the initial total “yes” vote for the 0.3% version suggests majority support for such a measure may exist at this point in time.
Initial Vote
(Intensity)
Regardless of rate, there was only modest intensity in the initial “yes” vote.
Vote Movement Support for measure increased after voters learned more about it and remained above 50% after presentation of rationales to oppose a measure.
Rates
By the end of the survey, support was very similar for both rates tested—both in aggregate and intensity—suggesting that those initial differences may have been artifacts of how respondents quickly interpreted the 0.225% rate and that voters might make their decision on other factors besides the tax rate.
BLT Measure Viability Factors
Polling Results indicate that a BLT modernization measure may be a viable ballot measure in the November 2024 General Election.
For more information,
contact:
Curt Below
[email protected]
Lucia Del Puppo
[email protected]
1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384