Fremont City Council
June 20, 2023

Appendix A
Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Forecast
Memo

Memo
1111 Broadway, Suite 300
Oakland, CA 94607
916.444.7301

Date: February 26, 2021
To: Rachel DiFranco and Robbie Barton (City of Fremont) From: Honey Walters, Hannah Kornfeld, and Angie Xiong (Ascent Environmental) Subject: City of Fremont Climate Action Plan 2.0 Emissions Forecast Scenarios Technical Memorandum

INTRODUCTION
The City of Fremont (City) has long been on the forefront of climate action. The City completed its first greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and appointed a Green Task Force in 2008 to call upon the City to adopt GHG reduction targets and develop a Climate Action Plan (CAP). The City adopted its first CAP in 2012, which includes a GHG emissions reduction target for the year 2020 based on a 2005 baseline year.

The City is currently preparing an updated CAP (CAP 2.0) that will lay out near-, medium-, and long-term pathways to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 while also advancing the City’s commitments to mobility, affordable housing, economic development, innovation, safety, and quality of life. The first phase of developing the CAP 2.0 was conducted by City staff and included an update of the community-wide and municipal operations inventories for 2015, 2017, and 2018. The second phase, as described in this technical memorandum (Tech Memo #1), was estimating GHG emissions forecasts for 2030, 2045, and 2050 in alignment with Senate Bill (SB) 32 of 2016, Executive Order B- 55-18 and the City’s Carbon Neutrality resolution, and Executive Order B-30-15, respectively. Three different forecast scenarios have been prepared: a legislative-adjusted business-as-usual (BAU) forecast, a zero-carbon energy forecast, and a balance of advanced mitigation measures forecast. Tech Memo #1 provides the results of the 2018 communitywide GHG emissions inventory and emissions forecasts, as well as associated methods, assumptions, emissions factors, and data sources used to develop the updated emissions inventory and forecasts.

ORGANIZATION OF THIS MEMORANDUM
This memorandum consists of three main parts:
 Section 1: Summary of Inventory Results presents an overview of the updated communitywide 2018 GHG emissions inventory for the City.
 Section 2: Emissions Forecasts summarizes the forecasted GHG emissions under three different scenarios for the years 2030, 2045, and 2050. Each forecast scenario also summarizes the data, methods, and assumptions used in the forecasts.

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 Section 3: Gap Analysis illustrates the emissions gap between the forecasted GHG emissions and the City’s adopted GHG reduction targets. This gap indicates the quantity of emissions reductions that will need to be met through local action.
1 SUMMARY OF INVENTORY RESULTS

1.1 2018 COMMUNITY INVENTORY RESULTS
Based on the modeling conducted, communitywide sources generated 1,242,640 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) in 2018. Major emissions sectors included residential building energy use, nonresidential building energy use, and on-road transportation. Table 1 and Figure 1 present the City’s 2018 GHG emissions inventory by sector.

Table 1 2018 City of Fremont Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory Sector 2018 Emissions
(MTCO2e/year) Percent of Total
Residential Building Energy 172,974 14%
Nonresidential Building Energy 177,163 14%
On-Road Transportation 783,601 63%
Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 46,172 4%
BART 997 <1%
Solid Waste 57,018 5%
Water Supply 577 <1%
Wastewater Treatment 4,135 <1%
Total 1,242,640 100%
Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BART = Bay Area Rapid Transit; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: City of Fremont 2020
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Figure 1 2018 City of Fremont Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Table 2 shows a comparison of the City’s 2005 inventory alongside the updated 2018 results. In general, the organization of the 2018 inventory is consistent with that of the 2005 inventory. The primary difference is that the 2018 inventory includes the off-road vehicles sector. Additionally, the 2018 inventory includes emissions from nonresidential back-up generators, as well as cleaner electricity offered by East Bay Community Energy (EBCE), which began serving the community in 2018.

Based on the modeling conducted, a 24 percent decrease in emissions from the 2005 inventory was reported. All sectors showed decreases in emissions, except for solid waste, which increased primarily due to a difference in accounting methodology. Specific examples and further comparison between the two inventories are included in Section 2 on a per-sector basis. In general, differences in emissions between the two inventories can be explained by:
 the inclusion of emissions from nonresidential back-up generators, EBCE electricity, and off-road equipment categories;
 adjustments in calculation methodologies (e.g., equations and emission factors);  differences in data sources between the two inventories; and  changes in actual activity levels within the city since 2005 (e.g., population increase, number of buildings, building energy use, and vehicle travel).

Table 2 Comparison of City of Fremont Community Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2005 and 2018) Sector 2005 Inventory
(MTCO2e/year)
2018 GHG Inventory
(MTCO2e/year)
Difference
(MTCO2e/year)
Percent change
from 2005
Residential Building Energy 245,222 172,974 -72,248 -29% Nonresidential Building Energy 440,150 177,163 -262,987 -60% On-Road Transportation 865,002 783,601 -81,410 -9%
Nonresidential Building
Energy, 14%
Residential
Building Energy,
14%
On-Road
Transportation,
63%
BART, 0.1%
Off-Road Vehicles, 4%
Solid Waste, 5% Water Supply,

0.0%
Wastewater
Treatment, 0.3%
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Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment1 34,988 46,172 +11,184 +32% BART 2,111 997 -1,114 -53%
Solid Waste 36,256 57,018 +20,762 +57%
Water Supply 4,210 577 -3,328 -79%
Wastewater Treatment 7,025 4,135 -2,890 -41%
Total 1,634,965 1,242,640 -392,325 -24%
Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding; BART = Bay Area Rapid Transit; GHG = greenhouse gas; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year; NA = Not available. 1 Off-road vehicles and equipment sector was not included in the original 2005 inventory that was incorporated into the City’s 2012 CAP. The CAP

2.0 adds the off-road sector to the 2005 baseline, 2018 inventory update, and all forecast years using the same methodology.

Source: City of Fremont 2020
2 GHG EMISSIONS FORECASTS TO 2030, 2045, AND 2050
The legislative-adjusted BAU emissions forecast, zero-carbon scenario forecast, and balanced scenario forecast provide the City with assessments of how the community’s GHG emissions would change over time without further action from the City. The legislative-adjusted BAU emissions forecast only includes emissions reductions associated with implementation of adopted federal and State legislation and regulations and does not include goals established by executive orders or targets established by federal or State agencies outside of adopted legislation and regulations.

The legislative-adjusted BAU forecast also does not account for regional or local targets that may affect the City, such as those established by the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, EBCE, StopWaste, or others. Further, this forecast scenario does not incorporate possible emissions reductions due to advancements in clean energy technology deployment such as zero emission vehicle adoption and installation of solar photovoltaics on building rooftops. Therefore, the legislative-adjusted BAU emissions forecast scenario should be interpreted as the absolute minimum emissions reductions that could be achieved over the forecasted timeline. This forecast serves as the starting point from which local GHG emissions reduction measures are formed.

All forecast scenarios include projected emissions for the City’s target years of 2030 and 2045, as well as 2050 to align with the State’s long-term goals. These forecasts can inform the City’s selection of GHG reduction strategies by identifying the relative contribution of different sectors and activities to the City’s future emissions totals, and the magnitude of reductions anticipated from State and federal actions (e.g., adopted and proposed rules, regulation, plans, and programs) for the different sectors and activities within the City’s jurisdiction.

Various demographic factors were used to estimate future activity levels for each emissions sector and are shown in Table 3. Emissions associated with residential building energy, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) ridership, solid waste, water supply, wastewater treatment, and some off-road vehicle categories were scaled using population forecasts provided by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the California Department of Finance. Nonresidential building energy, and several off-road vehicle categories were scaled using employment projections provided by MTC. Household forecasts were used for projections of lawn and garden equipment (one of the off-road categories). On-road transportation emissions were scaled using MTC’s vehicle miles traveled (VMT) estimate for the City, separated by passenger and commercial vehicles. All scaling factors were applied based on the percent change from 2018 activity levels for each target year. Refer to Attachment A for detailed calculations of scaling factors and forecasts.

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Table 3 City of Fremont Demographic Forecasts
Forecast Factor 2018 2030 2045 2050
Population 232,685 239,610 283,656 290,591
Households 73,467 79,215 89,560 91,750
Employment 115,403 110,300 140,683 144,122
Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled
Passenger Vehicles 1,309,215,427 1,384,190,409 1,564,511,455 1,627,908,920 Commercial Vehicles 263,167,145 335,258,854 399,945,546 417,631,081 Source: MTC 2018; MTC 2020; California Department of Finance 2020; calculations conducted by Ascent Environmental in 2020

2.1 LEGISLATIVE-ADJUSTED BAU FORECAST
The legislative-adjusted BAU emissions forecast provides the City with an assessment of how the community’s emissions would change over time without further action from the City. In addition to accounting for the city’s growth, the legislative-adjusted BAU forecast accounts for legislative actions at the local, State, and federal levels that would affect emissions, such as regulatory requirements to increase vehicle fuel efficiency. A summary of legislative reductions applied is provided below in Table 4.

Table 4 Legislative Reductions Summary
Source Legislative Reduction Description Sectors Applied State SB 100
Requires California energy utilities to procure 60 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045.

Building Energy, Water
State
California Building Energy
Efficiency Standards (Title 24,
Part 6)
Requires all new buildings in California to comply with energy efficiency standards established by CEC. Building Energy State AB 341 Requires California to achieve a 75 percent solid waste diversion target by 2020. Solid Waste
State Advanced Clean Car
Standards
Establishes GHG emission reduction standards for model years 2017 through 2025 that are more stringent than federal CAFE standards.

EPA and NHSTA SAFE Rule revokes California’s ACC Standards and amends CAFE Standards for model years 2021–2026.

On-Road Transportation
State Truck and Bus Regulation Requires diesel trucks and buses that operate in California to be upgraded to reduce GHG emissions. On-Road Transportation Federal
Fuel Efficiency Standards for
Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles
Establishes fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles. On-Road Transportation
Federal EPA Off-Road Compression-
Ignition Engine Standards
Establishes standards for phasing of EPA diesel engine tiers for off- road compression-ignition equipment. Off-Road Vehicles
Notes: AB = Assembly Bill; CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Economy; CEC = California Energy Commission; EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; GHG = greenhouse gas; NHTSA = National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; SAFE Rule = Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicle Rule; SB = Senate Bill.

Source: Ascent Environmental 2020
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Legislative-adjusted BAU forecasts are included below in Table 5. The City’s legislative-adjusted BAU emissions would decrease by 13 percent between 2018 and 2045 and decrease by 12 percent between 2018 and 2050, despite an increase in population of 22 percent by 2045 and 25 percent by 2050, from 2018 levels. Emissions forecasts are detailed for each sector and discussed below.

Table 5 City of Fremont 2018 GHG Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecast (MTCO2e/year) Sector 2018 2030 2045 2050
Residential Building Energy 172,974 157,096 147,281 148,337 Nonresidential Building Energy 177,163 133,693 134,984 126,861 On-Road Transportation 783,601 670,547 680,791 704,698
Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 46,172 53,251 68,442 71,018 BART 997 1,027 1,216 1,245
Solid Waste 57,018 33,934 40,172 40,048
Water Supply 577 128 0 0
Wastewater Treatment 4,135 3,741 3,686 3,776
Total 1,242,640 1,053,414 1,076,571 1,095,984
Notes: Total may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BART = Bay Area Rapid Transit; BAU = business-as-usual; GHG = greenhouse gas; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020

2.2 BUILDING ENERGY
Emissions from future electricity and natural gas use were estimated by multiplying anticipated energy use with forecasted emission factors. Future energy use was forecasted in three parts. First, energy use was scaled by the anticipated population and employment growth detailed in Table 4. Second, electricity emissions factors were aligned with California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets for the years forecasted. Electricity emissions factors are anticipated to decline based on current regulations, while natural gas emission factors stay constant. Third, energy intensity factors were adjusted to reflect increased stringency expected under California’s Title 24 building energy efficiency standards (i.e., 2019 standards which became effective in 2020), which are expected to achieve decreases in electricity and natural gas consumption in new construction. The assumptions made regarding energy efficiency and future electricity emission factors are described in the sections below. Additionally, diesel consumption associated with back-up generators was estimated for nonresidential building energy based on anticipated employment growth.

Table 6 summarizes the legislative factors used to scale building energy use by energy type.

Table 6 Building Energy Emissions Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Energy Type
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Electricity
Scaled by population growth for residential building
energy; scaled by employment growth for
commercial/industrial building energy.

RPS achieved to date and scheduled targets (i.e., 33 percent renewable by 2020, 60 percent renewable by 2030) applied to PG&E’s emission factors. EBCE committed to 100 percent clean electricity by 2030. Accounts for 2019 Title 24 energy efficiency gains in new construction.

Natural Gas
Scaled by population growth for residential building
energy; scaled by employment growth for
commercial/industrial building energy.

Accounts for Title 24 energy efficiency gains in new
construction.

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Back-Up Generators Scaled by employment growth for diesel consumption used for emergency power in commercial/industrial buildings. None.

Notes: EBCE = East Bay Community Energy; PG&E = Pacific Gas & Electric Company; RPS = Renewable Portfolio Standard.

Source: Ascent Environmental 2020
Residential Building Energy
Between 2018 and 2050, electricity and natural gas emissions from residential buildings would decrease by 14 percent from 172,974 to 148,337 MTCO2e per year with legislative adjustments and considering overall population growth of 25 percent over the same period. Table 7 shows the baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from the residential building energy sector by energy type for 2018, 2030, 2045, and 2050.

Table 7 Residential Building Energy Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (2018–2050) (MTCO2e/year) Energy Type 2018 2030 2045 2050
Electricity 32,940 16,518 0 0
Natural Gas 140,034 140,578 147,281 148,337
Total Residential Building Energy Emissions 172,974 157,096 147,281 148,337 Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020 Nonresidential Building Energy
Between 2018 and 2050, electricity and natural gas emissions from commercial and industrial buildings would decrease by 28 percent from 177,163 to 126,861 MTCO2e per year with legislative adjustments and considering job growth of 25 percent over the same period. Table 8 shows the baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions for the commercial and industrial building energy sector by energy type for 2018, 2030, 2045, and 2050.

Table 8 Nonresidential Building Energy Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (2018–2050) (MTCO2e/year) Energy Type 2018 2030 2045 2050
Electricity 57,750 19,661 0 0
Natural Gas 119,305 113,925 134,851 126,724
Diesel 109 104 133 137
Total Nonresidential Building Energy Emissions 177,163 133,690 134,984 126,861 Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020

ELECTRICITY EMISSIONS FACTORS
Emissions from the building energy sector would see gradual declines through 2050 without additional City action, despite population and employment growth, due to State measures already in place. Electricity emissions factors for carbon dioxide (CO2) are based on Pacific Gas & Electric’s (PG&E) reported emission factors for 2018, which were provided by PG&E directly (The Climate Registry n.d.). Electricity emissions factors for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) 2018 GHG Annual Output Emission Rates (EPA 2020).

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California utility providers, including PG&E, are required to reach a 33 percent renewable electricity generation mix by 2020 and 60 percent by 2030, and 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045, pursuant to SB 100. PG&E’s 2030 emissions factor shall be 113 pounds of CO2 per megawatt hour (lb CO2/MWh), and the 2045 and 2050 emissions factors shall be 0 lb CO2/MWh. CH4 and N2O electricity emissions factors in future years are assumed follow the same trends as the CO2 emissions factors.

In 2018, EBCE began to enroll Fremont residents and businesses into its electricity service. By the end of 2018, approximately 87 percent of Fremont residents, and 51 percent of commercial and industrial consumers were served by PG&E electricity, with the remaining being served by EBCE. EBCE currently offers customers various tiers for electricity, ranging from 62 percent to 100 percent carbon-free. Most residents and businesses in the city that opted into EBCE received the lowest tier of electricity (First Tier) (i.e., 62 percent carbon-free). However, in December 2020, the EBCE Board of Directors approved a policy to achieve 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2030 (EBCE 2020). Therefore, EBCE’s 2030, 2045, and 2050 emissions factors is projected to be 0 lb CO2/MWh. CH4 and N2O electricity emissions factors in future years are assumed to also be 0 lb/MWh.

NATURAL GAS EMISSIONS FACTORS
Natural gas emissions are based on The Climate Registry’s 2019 default emission factors, which are estimated to be

11.7 pounds of CO2e per therm. Emissions rates associated with natural gas combustion are not anticipated to change over time, as there are no legislative actions that would reduce the energy intensity of natural gas.

DIESEL EMISSIONS FACTORS
Emissions from diesel fuel used to power back-up generators are based on The Climate Registry’s 2019 default emission factors, which are estimated to be 0.12 pounds of CO2e per standard cubic foot of diesel fuel. Emissions rates associated with diesel combustion are not anticipated to change over time, as there are no legislative actions that would reduce the energy intensity of diesel.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY
The State’s Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards, updated every three years, apply to both new construction and existing buildings. The 2019 Title 24 standards went into effect January 2020. The California Energy Commission (CEC) estimated that new residential buildings built to the 2019 standards are 53 percent more efficient than residential buildings built to the previous standards, which includes both energy efficiency savings and reduced electricity emissions due to the onsite solar requirements (CEC 2018). CEC estimates that new nonresidential built to the 2019 standards are 30 percent more efficient than nonresidential buildings built to the previous standards (CEC 2018). In addition to the current iteration of Title 24, previous versions of Title 24 have also achieved energy efficiencies for residential and nonresidential buildings. Since 2008, energy efficiency savings have been quantified and the collective impact of Title 24 was accounted for in the forecasted emissions.

Forecasts for future building energy use accounts for Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards. It is assumed that all new residential construction taking place between 2020 and 2050 would be 75 percent more energy-efficient than buildings constructed to 2008 Title 24 standards and nonresidential construction taking place between 2020 and 2050 would be 53 percent more energy-efficient compared to buildings constructed to meet 2008 Title 24 standards.

This includes the energy efficiencies gained through the 2008, 2013, 2016, and 2019 versions of Title 24. Additional efficiencies to be achieved in future code cycles are yet unknown and therefore not factored into the forecast.

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2.3 TRANSPORTATION
On-Road Transportation
Between 2018 and 2050, GHG emissions from on-road transportation would decrease by approximately 10 percent from 783,601 to 704,698 MTCO2e per year based on future vehicle emission factors modeled in the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB’s) Emission Factor (EMFAC) 2017 model, despite an increase in VMT of 59 percent. With respect to the legislative adjustments included in this forecast, State and federal policies and associated regulations incorporated in the on-road transportation sector include the Pavley Clean Car Standards, Advanced Clean Car (ACC) Standards, and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. These policies are already included in EMFAC 2017’s emission factor estimates and forecasts. It should be noted that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard was excluded in EMFAC 2017 forecasts because most of the emission benefits originate from upstream fuel production and do not directly reduce emissions in the City’s GHG inventory or forecasts.

While the legislative-adjusted forecasts use EMFAC 2017 to estimate on-road transportation emissions, an additional adjustment had to be made off model due to changes in federal policy. In April 2020, the EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration finalized Part Two of the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicle Rule (SAFE Rule). Part Two of the SAFE Rule addresses Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks for model year 2021–2026. CARB has provided adjustment factors to account for the anticipated changes in emissions outputs from CARB’s EMFAC 2017 model based on the impacts of SAFE Rule Part Two (CARB 2020). These adjustments were made for all gasoline–powered light-duty vehicles (i.e., passenger and light-duty trucks) for each of the City’s target years.

Table 9 summarizes the legislative reductions used to forecast on-road vehicle emissions.

Table 9 On-Road Transportation Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Source
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Passenger Vehicles
Scaled by VMT estimates
provided by MTC
EMFAC forecasts vehicle fleet distributions by vehicle type and the emissions factors anticipated for each vehicle category based on both vehicle emissions testing and approved legislative reductions. EMFAC’s forecasts incorporate the effects of the ACC Standards, federal CAFE standards, and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, as well as truck and bus regulations. An off-model adjustment, provided by CARB, was taken to account for the SAFE Rule’s impact on GHG emissions for model years 2021–2026.

Commercial Vehicles
Notes: ACC = Advanced Clean Cars; CARB = California Air Resources Board; MTC = Metropolitan Transportation Commission; EMFAC = California Air Resources Board’s EMisson FACtor model; GHG = greenhouse gas; SAFE Rule = Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Rule; VMT = vehicle miles traveled.

Source: Ascent Environmental 2020
Table 10 shows the baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from on-road transportation for 2018, 2030, 2045, and 2050.

Table 10 On-Road Transportation Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (2018–2050) (MTCO2e/year) Source 2018 2030 2045 2050
Passenger Vehicles 430,168 315,987 309,785 320,250
Commercial Vehicles 353,434 354,559 371,006 384,448
Total On-Road Transportation Emissions 783,601 670,547 680,791 704,698 Notes: BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020 Fremont CAP 2.0 Emissions Forecast Scenarios Memo
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Off-Road Transportation
Between 2018 and 2050, emissions associated with off-road vehicles used in the city would increase by 53 percent from 46,318 to 71,018 MTCO2e per year, with legislative adjustments applied and considering growth in various demographics, as shown in Table 11. With respect to the legislative adjustments in the off-road vehicle sector, emission factors were used from CARB’s OFFROAD 2007 and 2017 models, which incorporate regulatory actions such as reformulated fuels and more stringent emission standards. Table 11 summarizes the legislative reductions used to forecast off-road vehicle emissions.

Table 11 Off-Road Transportation Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Off-Road Category
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Agricultural Equipment Acres of agricultural land
OFFROAD2007 and OFFROAD2017 emission
factor considerations include EPA off-road
compression-ignition engine standards
implementation schedule.

Construction and Mining Equipment Change in service population Entertainment Equipment Population
Industrial Equipment Acres of industrial land
Lawn and Garden Equipment Households
Light Commercial Equipment Employment
Pleasure Craft Population
Recreational Equipment Population
Transport Refrigeration Units Share of Road Miles in Alameda County Notes: EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; OFFROAD2007 = CARB’s OFFROAD2007 model; OFFROAD2017 = CARB’s OFFROAD2017 model.

Source: Ascent Environmental 2020
Table 12 shows the baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from the off-road vehicle sector for 2018, 2030, 2045, and 2050.

Table 12 Off-Road Transportation Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (2018–2050) (MTCO2e/year) Source 2018 2030 2045 2050
Off-Road Vehicles 46,318 53,251 68,442 71,018
Notes: BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020 BART
Between 2018 and 2050, emissions associated with BART ridership by Fremont residents would increase by 25 percent from 997 to 1,245 MTCO2e, considering anticipated population growth. There are no applicable legislative reductions that can be quantified for BART operations. Table 13 shows the baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from BART for 2018, 2030, 2045, and 2050.

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Table 13 BART Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (2018–2050) (MTCO2e/year) Source 2018 2030 2045 2050
BART 997 1,027 1,216 1,245
Notes: BART = Bay Area Rapid Transit; BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020

2.4 SOLID WASTE
Between 2018 and 2050, solid waste emissions generated from the city would decrease by 30 percent from 57,018 to 40,048 MTCO2e per year, with legislative adjustments applied and considering population growth of 34 percent over the same time. Table 14 summarizes the legislative reductions used to forecast emissions from the solid waste sector.

Table 14 Solid Waste Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Source
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Landfill Disposal Scaled by population growth Assumes California’s 75 percent waste diversion goal would be achieved and maintained by 2030.

Source: Ascent Environmental 2020
The forecasts shown in Table 15 below account for the CH4 and CO2 emissions from waste decay generated annually.

With respect to solid waste generation, the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) established a target pursuant to AB 341 (Chapter 476, Statutes of 2011) to achieve a statewide waste diversion of 75 percent by 2020, which is equivalent to a disposal rate of 2.7 pounds of waste per resident per day. The City’s waste disposal tonnage, disposal rates, and disposal targets are reported to CalRecycle by year. These data show that the City’s disposal rate was 4.7 pounds of waste per resident per day in 2018, or approximately a 56 percent diversion rate. Emission forecasts for this sector assume the City’s disposal rate would meet the 2.7 pounds per day per resident diversion target by 2030 (i.e., 75 percent diversion rate) and then remain constant through 2050.

Table 15 shows the baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from the solid waste sector for 2018, 2030, 2045, and 2050.

Table 15 Solid Waste Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (2018–2050) (MTCO2e/year) Activity 2018 2030 2045 2050
Total Solid Waste Emissions 57,018 33,934 40,172 40,048 Notes: BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020

2.5 WATER AND WASTEWATER
Between 2018 and 2050, water- and wastewater-related emissions from the city would decrease by 18 percent from 4,713 to 3,869 MTCO2e per year, with legislative adjustments and considering population growth of 34 percent over the same time. This change reflects an increase in water consumption and wastewater generation with lower electricity factors because of the 2030 and 2045 RPS targets, consistent with SB 100 legislative actions described above. Table 16 summarizes the legislative reductions used to forecast water and wastewater emissions.

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Table 16 Water and Wastewater Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Source
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Water Consumption Scaled by population growth Assumes electricity use for pumping, conveyance, and treatment follow the 2030 RPS schedule and 2045 carbon-free electricity requirements.

Wastewater Treatment Scaled by population growth Assumes electricity use for pumping, conveyance, and treatment follow the 2030 RPS schedule and 2045 carbon-free electricity requirements.

Notes: RPS = Renewable Portfolio Standard.

Source: Ascent Environmental 2020
Table 17 shows the baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from water- and wastewater-related sources for 2018, 2030, 2045, and 2050. Population growth rates and electricity emission factors are detailed in Table 3 and Section 2.2.

Table 17 Water and Wastewater Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (2018–2050) (MTCO2e/year) Activity 2018 2030 2045 2050
Water Supply 577 128 0 0
Wastewater Treatment 4,135 3,741 3,686 3,776
Total Water and Wastewater Emissions 4,713 3,869 3,686 3,776 Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020

2.6 DISCUSSION
As discussed above and shown in Table 5, the City’s legislative-adjusted BAU emissions would decrease by 15 percent between 2018 and 2030. This is a result of reductions that would be achieved from numerous legislative reductions, despite anticipated growth, including:
 A greater renewable mix in California’s electricity supply (60 percent renewable by 2030);  Greater building energy efficiency through compliance with 2019 Title 24 standards (53 percent energy reduction for residential, 30 percent for nonresidential);
 Reductions in on-road vehicle emission factors forecasted in EMFAC2017;  Reductions in off-road vehicle emission factors forecasted in OFFROAD2007; and  Achieving and maintaining a waste diversion goal of 75 percent, pursuant to AB 341.

From 2030 to 2050, fewer new legislative actions are assumed to be in place due to lack of available information about potential State or federal actions beyond 2030. Section 2.7, “Additional Forecast Scenarios,” discusses the potential measures that the State could adopt through legislation to reduce GHG emissions beyond 2030.

2.7 ADDITIONAL FORECAST SCENARIOS
Reducing GHG emissions in California has been the focus of the State government for approximately two decades.

California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan (2017 Scoping Plan), prepared by CARB, outlines the main strategies California will implement to achieve the legislated GHG emissions target for 2030 and “substantially advance toward our 2050 climate goals” (CARB 2017:1,3,5,25–26). It identifies the reductions needed by each GHG emissions sector Fremont CAP 2.0 Emissions Forecast Scenarios Memo
February 26, 2021

(i.e., transportation, industry, electricity generation, agriculture, commercial and residential, pollutants with high global warming potential [GWP], and recycling and waste).

Since adopting the 2017 Scoping Plan, the State has issued Executive Order B-55-18, which calls for statewide carbon neutrality by 2045. The next iteration of CARB’s Climate Change Scoping Plan is anticipated to address the reductions needed to meet this new goal. Development of the 2022 Climate Change Scoping Plan is already underway, and CARB recently released a report outlining potential pathways for the state to meet its carbon neutrality target. This report, titled “Achieving Carbon Neutrality in California,” provides three pathways for consideration (E3 2020:3):
 High Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) scenario achieves an 80 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2045 and relies most heavily on CO2 removal strategies (i.e., carbon sequestration or carbon capture and storage).  Zero-Carbon Energy scenario achieves zero fossil fuel emissions by 2045, with some remaining emissions from non-combustion and high GWP gases by 2045. CDR strategies are minimized in this scenario.  Balanced scenario represents a middle point between the High CDR and Zero-Carbon Energy scenarios in terms of energy-related GHG reduction. This scenario includes less CDR than the High CDR scenario, and more CDR than the Zero Carbon Energy scenario.

The City’s legislative-adjusted BAU forecasts were used to derive two additional forecast scenarios, following CARB’s Zero Carbon Energy and Balanced scenarios. These forecast scenarios provide the City with the information needed to focus efforts on emissions sectors that have the most GHG reduction opportunities, considering what State legislative reductions could achieve in the future. The proposed measures in these scenarios provide an insight into the State’s planned trajectory and can help the City align with these efforts. The next two sections provide the City’s forecasted GHG emissions under each of these scenarios.

Zero-Carbon Energy Scenario Forecast
The Zero-Carbon Energy scenario evaluates the impact of “earlier, more rapid, and more complete deployment of electrification strategies in buildings, transportation, and some industrial processes, as well as deployment of more speculative technologies such as electric aviation and hydrogen fuel-cell trains” (E3 2020:4). Not all the measures included in the Zero-Carbon Energy scenario are applicable to the City’s forecasts and some measures are not quantifiable yet due to lack of data and/or methodologies. Table 18 shows the full list of measures included in the Zero-Carbon Energy scenario and identifies which measures have been quantified and applied to the City’s emissions forecast.

Table 18 Zero-Carbon Energy Scenario Measures and Applicability Sector Measure Applicability
Low-Carbon Fuels
 0.4 EJ of advanced biofuels for:
 On- and off-road ground transportation
 Renewable aviation fuel
 Biomethane for electricity generation
 0.3 EJ of hydrogen for:
 Pipeline gas demand
 Direct hydrogen combustion in industry
 HDV fuel cell transportation
 0.04 EJ of synthetic natural gas for:
 Industry gas demand
Not applied because upstream emissions related to low
carbon fuels (and all transportation fuels) are not
included in EMFAC or OFFROAD models. Therefore, an
adjustment to fuel carbon content cannot be applied to
the models.

Buildings
 100 percent sales of electric appliances by 2030
 All gas end uses retired by 2045
Applied to nonresidential and residential building energy use. All natural gas uses eliminated by 2045 and no new natural gas appliances between 2030 and 2045. Existing
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Sector Measure Applicability
 SB 350 doubling of AAEE is met by 2030 electricity and natural gas consumption reduced by half from 2018 baseline to 2030.

Transportation
 100 percent new BEV sales for LDV by 2030
 100 percent new BEV sales for MDV by 2030
 50 percent new BEV, 50 percent new HFCV sales for
HDV by 2035
 75 percent rail electrification, 25 percent rail powered by hydrogen
 50 percent of in-state aviation electrified
Adjusted EMFAC emissions factors to account for 100
percent zero emission LDVs, MDVs, and HDVs by 2030
for new cars. Rail and aviation electrification are not applied because these sources were not quantified in
inventory or legislative-adjusted forecast.

Industry &
Agriculture
 53 percent of energy demand met with electricity
 19 percent of energy demand met with hydrogen
 15 MMT CCS for cement and glass
 100 percent reduction in agriculture emissions
 100 percent reduction in energy demand from oil and
gas extraction and petroleum refining
Reduced total energy consumption for industrial uses
based on anticipated increase in demand met from
electricity and hydrogen. No agriculture or other
industrial processes were quantified because they are not included in the City’s inventory or legislative-adjusted forecast.

Electricity
 Remaining dispatchable gas capacity is fueled with
biomethane
 100 percent zero carbon generation
No additional reductions applied because SB 100 already requires 100 percent zero carbon electricity by 2045.

High GPW
 Emissions reductions relative to 2020:
 23 percent for landfill and wastewater methane
 100 percent for pipeline fugitive methane
 41 percent for agricultural methane
 75 percent for HFCs/refrigerants
Not applied because high GWP gases were not included
in inventory or legislative-adjusted forecast.

Carbon Dioxide
Removal
 32 MMT per year of carbon dioxide removal by 2045 Not applied because carbon dioxide removal is not an emissions source.

Notes: AAEE = additional achievable energy efficiency; BEV = battery electric vehicle; CCS = carbon capture and storage; EJ = exajoules; GWP = global warming potential; HDV = heavy-duty vehicles; HFCs = hydrofluorocarbons; HFCV = hydrogen fuel cell vehicle; LDV = light-duty vehicles; MDV = medium-duty vehicles; MMT = million metric tons; SB = Senate Bill.

Source: E3 2020; calculations performed by Ascent Environmental in 2020 After applying measures identified in the Zero-Carbon Energy scenario to the City’s legislative-adjusted BAU forecast, community-wide emissions would decrease by 82 percent between 2018 and 2050. The impact of the Zero-Carbon Energy scenario on the City’s legislative-adjusted BAU forecast is shown in Table 19.

Table 19 City of Fremont GHG Emissions Inventory and Zero-Carbon Energy Scenario Forecast (MTCO2e/year) Sector 2018 2030 2045 2050
Residential Building Energy 172,974 79,137 0 0
Nonresidential Building Energy 177,163 78,757 36,581 31,923 On-Road Transportation 783,601 632,827 83,352 85,920
Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 46,318 43,610 55,122 56,312 BART 997 1,027 1,216 1,245
Solid Waste 57,018 33,934 40,172 40,048
Water Supply 577 128 0 0
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Wastewater Treatment 4,135 3,741 3,686 3,776
Total 1,242,786 873,161 220,129 219,225
Notes: Total may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; GHG = greenhouse gas; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020

2.8 BALANCED SCENARIO FORECAST
The balanced scenario “still relies on rapid development of electrification and other carbon mitigation strategies, [but] the deployment of electrification technologies is not as rapid as in the zero-carbon energy scenario…[and] includes less reliance on some of the most expensive carbon mitigation measures, such as synthetic natural gas in the pipeline” (E3 2020:4–5). Not all the measures included in the Balanced scenario are applicable to the City’s forecasts and some measures are not yet quantifiable due to lack of data and/or methodologies. Table 20 shows the full list of measures included in the Balanced scenario and identifies which measures have been quantified and applied to the City’s emissions forecast.

Table 20 Balanced Scenario Measures and Applicability
Sector Measure Applicability
Low-Carbon Fuels
 0.4 EJ of advanced biofuels for:
 On- and off-road ground transportation
 Renewable aviation fuel
 Biomethane for electricity generation
 0.3 EJ of hydrogen for:
 Pipeline gas demand
 Direct hydrogen combustion in industry
 HDV fuel cell transportation
Not applied because low-carbon fuels are
considered upstream emissions and are not
included in the inventory or legislative-adjusted
forecast.

Buildings
 100 percent sales of electric appliances by 2035
 SB 350 doubling of AAEE is met by 2030
Applied to nonresidential and residential building
energy use. No new natural gas appliances
between 2035 and 2045. Existing electricity and
natural gas consumption reduced by half from
2018 baseline to 2030.

Transportation
 100 percent new BEV sales for LDV by 2035
 100 percent new BEV sales for MDV by 2035
 45 percent new BEV, 48 percent new HFCV sales for HDV by 2035
 75 percent rail electrification
Adjusted EMFAC emissions factors to account for
100 percent zero emission LDVs and MDVs, and
93 percent zero emission HDVs by 2035 for new
cars. Rail electrification is not applied because this
source was not quantified in inventory or
legislative-adjusted forecast.

Industry &
Agriculture
 44 percent of energy demand met with electricity
 16 percent of energy demand met with hydrogen
 18 MMT CCS for cement and glass
 90 percent reduction in agriculture emissions
 90 percent reduction in energy demand from oil and gas extraction and petroleum refining
Reduced total energy consumption for industrial
uses based on anticipated increase in demand
met from electricity and hydrogen. No agriculture
or other industrial processes were quantified
because they are not included in the City’s
inventory or legislative-adjusted forecast.

Electricity
 Remaining dispatchable gas capacity is fueled with biomethane  100 percent zero carbon generation
No additional reductions applied because SB 100
already requires 100 percent zero carbon
electricity by 2045.

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Sector Measure Applicability
High GPW
 Emissions reductions relative to 2020:
 23 percent for landfill and wastewater methane
 72 percent for pipeline fugitive methane
 41 percent for agricultural methane
 75 percent for HFCs/refrigerants
Not applied because high GWP gases were not
included in inventory or legislative-adjusted
forecast.

Carbon Dioxide
Removal
 57 MMT per year of carbon dioxide removal by 2045 Not applied because carbon dioxide removal is not an emissions source.

Notes: AAEE = additional achievable energy efficiency; BEV = battery electric vehicle; CCS = carbon capture and storage; EJ = exajoules; GWP = global warming potential; HDV = heavy-duty vehicles; HFCs = hydrofluorocarbons; HFCV = hydrogen fuel cell vehicle; LDV = light-duty vehicles; MDV = medium-duty vehicles; MMT = million metric tons; SB = Senate Bill.

Source: E3 2020; calculations performed by Ascent Environmental in 2020 After applying measures identified in the Balanced scenario to the City’s legislative-adjusted BAU forecast, community-wide emissions would decrease by 61 percent between 2018 and 2050. The impact of the Balanced scenario on the City’s legislative-adjusted BAU forecast is shown in Table 21.

Table 21 City of Fremont GHG Emissions Inventory and Balanced Scenario Forecast (MTCO2e/year) Sector 2018 2030 2045 2050
Residential Building Energy 172,974 79,137 77,519 78,574 Nonresidential Building Energy 177,163 78,757 90,336 82,213 On-Road Transportation 783,601 670,547 219,169 228,554
Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 46,318 43,610 55,122 56,312 BART 997 1,027 1,216 1,245
Solid Waste 57,018 33,934 40,172 40,048
Water Supply 577 128 0 0
Wastewater Treatment 4,135 3,741 3,686 3,776
Total 1,242,786 910,881 487,220 490,723
Notes: Total may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; GHG = greenhouse gas; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2020 Figure 2 depicts the relative impacts of the three emissions forecast scenarios on the City’s GHG emissions over time.

It is important to note that Figure 2 only shows emissions sources and does not incorporate carbon sinks such as carbon sequestration or carbon capture and storage technologies, which is an integral part of achieving carbon neutrality.

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Figure 2 City of Fremont Legislative-Adjusted Business-as-Usual Forecast Scenario, Zero-Carbon Energy Scenario, Balanced Scenario, and Emission Reduction Targets: 2030, 2045, and 2050 3 GAP ANALYSIS
Figure 3 below depicts the 2018 baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU GHG emissions forecasts by sector, as distinguished by the colored wedges. The sum of the wedges represents the anticipated annual GHG emissions each year. Each wedge shows how an emissions sector is expected to contribute to the community-wide GHG inventory over time. The reduction in residential and nonresidential building energy emissions between 2018 and 2050 illustrates the effects of statewide renewable energy policies and building energy efficiency standards on these sectors. On-road transportation emissions are anticipated to decrease considering the legislative reductions applied, despite forecasted growth in VMT. Emissions associated with off-road vehicles and equipment are anticipated to increase due to employment and population growth outpacing legislative reductions.

The black line indicates the City’s GHG reduction targets for 2030 and 2045. These targets are relative to the City’s 2005 GHG inventory. The City’s GHG reduction targets are as follows:
 2030 target: 55 percent below 2005 levels (735,734 MTCO2e); and  2045 target: carbon neutrality.

The space between the trajectory of the black line and the top of the colored wedges represents the “gap” in emissions that will need to be addressed through local actions for the City to meet its future GHG reduction targets. 2018 2020 2030 2045 2050
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000GHG Emissions (MTCO2e)
Legislative-Adjusted BAU Scenario Zero-Carbon Energy Scenario Balanced Scenario Reduction Targets
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Figure 3 City of Fremont Legislative-Adjusted Business-as-Usual Forecast Emissions by Sector and Emission Reduction Targets: 2030, 2045, and 2050

Based on the City’s adopted GHG reduction targets, achievement of these targets will require the City to reduce annual emissions by 317,680 MTCO2e in 2030; 1,076,571 MTCO2e in 2045; and 1,095,894 MTCO2e in 2050, as shown in Table 22. These emissions reductions are in addition to anticipated reductions provided by legislative actions at the State and federal levels. Supporting information and detailed calculation results are included in Attachment A.

Table 22 City of Fremont GHG Emissions Reduction Targets and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Summary Source 2018 2030 2045 2050
Baseline Emissions and Legislative-Adjusted
BAU Forecast (MTCO2e) 1,242,786 1,053,414 1,076,571 1,095,984 Target Percent Reduction Below Baseline (%) NA 55 Carbon Neutrality Carbon Neutrality Target Annual Emissions (MTCO2e) NA 735,7341 0 0
Reduction Needed to Meet Target (MTCO2e) NA 317,680 1,076,571 1,095,984 Notes: GHG = greenhouse gas; BAU = business-as-usual, MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year; NA = not applicable. 1 The 2030 target is based on an adjusted 2005 baseline that includes the off-road sector, as presented in this technical memorandum. This differs from the 2005 baseline included in the 2012 CAP.

Source: Calculations conducted by Ascent Environmental in 2020 2018 2020 2030 2045 2050
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000GHG Emissions (MTCO2e)
Residential Building Energy Nonresidential Building Energy On-Road Transportation BART Off-Road Vehicles Solid Waste
Water Supply Wastewater Treatment Reduction Targets
55% below 2005
by 2030 (735,734
MTCO2e)
Carbon Neutrality
by 2045
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With respect to emissions beyond 2030, most adopted State and federal legislation and regulations have specific targets and policies that only address activities up to the year 2030. While advances in new technologies and State policy strategies may allow for additional significant reductions in the future, as shown in Tables 19 and 21 from the Zero-Carbon Energy and Balanced scenarios, respectively, specific legislative reductions that may occur between 2030 and 2050 are largely unknown at this time. The reductions afforded by the Zero-Carbon Energy and Balanced scenarios are also depicted in Figures 4 and 5 below.

Thus, estimated growth in future activities incrementally overtakes the reductions resulting from existing legislative actions. Where anticipated State regulations or programs are reasonably foreseeable, such as those included in Tables 18 and 20, they can be incorporated as complementary actions to locally based GHG reduction measures, as will be discussed in a subsequent technical memorandum.

Figure 4 City of Fremont Zero Carbon Energy Scenario Forecast Emissions by Sector and Emission Reduction Targets: 2030, 2045, and 2050
2018 2020 2030 2045 2050
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000GHG Emissions (MTCO2e)
Residential Building Energy Nonresidential Building Energy On-Road Transportation BART Off-Road Vehicles Solid Waste
Water Supply Wastewater Treatment Reduction Targets
55% below 2005
by 2030 (735,734
MTCO2e)
Carbon Neutrality
by 2045
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Figure 5 City of Fremont Balanced Scenario Forecast Emissions by Sector and Emission Reduction Targets:
2030, 2045, and 2050

2018 2020 2030 2045 2050
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000GHG Emissions (MTCO2e)
Residential Building Energy Nonresidential Building Energy On-Road Transportation BART Off-Road Vehicles Solid Waste
Water Supply Wastewater Treatment Reduction Targets
55% below 2005
by 2030 (735,734
MTCO2e)
Carbon Neutrality
by 2045
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References
California Air Resources Board. 2017 (November). California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan. Available https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic//cc/scopingplan/scoping_plan_2017.pdf. Accessed October 5, 2020.
———. 2020 (June 26). EMFAC Off-Model Adjustment Factors for Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions to Account for the SAFE Vehicles Rule Part One and the Final SAFE Rule. Available:
https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/msei/emfac_off_model_co2_adjustment_factors_06262020- final.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery. Accessed October 5, 2020.

California Energy Commission. 2018 (March). 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards Frequently Asked Questions.

California Department of Finance. 2020 (January). Total Estimated and Projected Population for California and Counties: July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2060 in 1-year Increments.

CARB. See California Air Resources Board.

CEC. See California Energy Commission.

City of Fremont. 2020. ClearPath 2018 Community Scale Inventory.

E3. See Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.

East Bay Community Energy. 2020 (December 17). Press Release East Bay Community Energy Commits to 100% Clean Energy by 2030. Available: https://ebce.org/news-and-events/east-bay-community-energy-commits-to-100- clean-energy-by-2030/. Accessed February 23, 2021.

EBCE. See East Bay Community Energy.

Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. 2020 (August). Achieving Carbon Neutrality in California PATHWAYS Developed for the California Air Resources Board. Available: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our- work/programs/carbon-neutrality/carbon-neutrality-meetings-workshops. Accessed October 5, 2020.

EPA. See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Metropolitan Transportation Commission. 2018. Plan Bay Area 2040 Forecast – Employment. Last updated July 5, 2018. Available: https://opendata.mtc.ca.gov/datasets/plan-bay-area-2040-forecast-employment. Accessed September 14, 2020.
———. 2020. Plan Bay Area 2040 Forecast – Population and Demographics. Last updated August 26, 2020. Available:
https://opendata.mtc.ca.gov/datasets/plan-bay-area-2040-forecast-population-and-demographics.

Accessed September 14, 2020.

MTC. See Metropolitan Transportation Commission.

The Climate Registry. 2019 (May). 2019 Default Emission Factors.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2020 (March 9). Emissions & Generation Integrated Database eGRID2018v2.

Available: https://www.epa.gov/egrid. Accessed October 5, 2020.

Attachment A
GHG Forecast Data and Calculations

Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e % of
Annual
Total
Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Building Energy - Nonresidential 177,163 14.3% 133,690 12.7% 134,984 12.5% 126,861 11.6% Electricity
PG&E 430,095 MWh 40,638 3.3% 379,705 MWh 19,661 1.9% 437,782 MWh 0 0.0% 422,364 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - First Tier 374,447 MWh 17,112 1.4% 357,889 MWh 0 0.0% 412,629 MWh 0 0.0% 398,097 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Second Tier 4,678 MWh 0 0.0% 4,472 MWh 0 0.0% 5,155 MWh 0 0.0% 4,974 MWh 0 0.0% Electricity Subtotal 809,220 MWh 57,750 4.6% 742,066 MWh 19,661 1.9% 855,567 MWh 0 0.0% 825,435 MWh 0 0.0% Natural Gas
PG&E 22,445,051 therms 119,193 9.6% 21,452,554 therms 113,923 9.7% 25,392,982 therms 134,848 11.4% 23,862,684 therms 126,722 11.6% Back-Up Generators 33 mcf 111 0.0% 32 mcf 2 41 mcf 2 42 mcf 2 Natural Gas Subtotal 22,445,084 119,305 9.6% 21,452,586 113,925 9.7% 25,393,023 134,851 11.4% 23,862,726 126,724 11.6% Diesel
Back-Up Generators 9,790 gallons 109 0.0% 9,357 gallons 104 11,935 gallons 133 12,226 gallons 137 Diesel Subtotal 109 0.0% 104 0.0% 133 0.0% 137 0.0%
Building Energy - Residential 172,974 13.9% 157,096 14.9% 147,281 13.7% 148,337 13.5% Electricity
PG&E 326,827 MWh 30,880 2.5% 319,010 MWh 16,518 1.6% 334,221 MWh 0 0.0% 336,616 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - First Tier 45,078 MWh 2,060 0.2% 45,419 MWh 0 0.0% 47,584 MWh 0 0.0% 47,925 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Second Tier 13 MWh 0 0.0% 13 MWh 0 0.0% 13 MWh 0 0.0% 14 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Third Tier 42 MWh 0 0.0% 42 MWh 0 0.0% 44 MWh 0 0.0% 45 MWh 0 0.0% Electricity Subtotal 371,960 MWh 32,940 2.7% 364,484 MWh 16,518 1.6% 381,863 MWh 0 0.0% 384,599 MWh 0 0.0% Natural Gas
PG&E 26,369,188 therms 140,034 11.3% 26,471,932 therms 140,578 13.3% 27,734,186 therms 147,281 13.7% 27,932,915 therms 148,337 13.5% Natural Gas Subtotal 26,369,188 140,034 11.3% 26,471,932 140,578 13.3% 27,734,186 147,281 13.7% 27,932,915 148,337 13.5% On-Road Transportation 1,572,382,573 VMT 783,601 63.1% 1,719,449,263 VMT 670,547 63.7% 1,964,457,001 VMT 680,791 63.2% 2,045,540,001 VMT 704,698 64.3% Passenger Vehicles 1,309,215,427 VMT 430,168 34.6% 1,384,190,409 VMT 315,987 26.8% 1,564,511,455 VMT 309,785 28.8% 1,627,908,920 VMT 320,250 29.2% Heavy-Duty Vehicles 263,167,145 VMT 353,434 28.4% 335,258,854 VMT 354,559 30.1% 399,945,546 VMT 371,006 34.5% 417,631,081 VMT 384,448 35.1% BART 75,257,107
Passenger
Miles 997 0.1% 77,496,854
Passenger
Miles 1,027 0.1% 91,742,597
Passenger
Miles 1,216 0.1% 93,985,438
Passenger
Miles 1,245 0.1%
Off-Road Transportation 46,318 3.7% 53,251 5.1% 68,442 6.4% 71,018 6.5% Agricultural Equipment -- -- 10 0.0% -- -- 10 0.0% -- -- 10 0.0% -- -- 10 0.0% Construction and Mining Equipme -- -- 9,934 0.8% -- -- 11,028 1.0% -- -- 13,917 1.3% -- -- 14,533 1.3% Entertainment Equipment -- -- 122 0.0% -- -- 111 0.0% -- -- 111 0.0% -- -- 116 0.0% Industrial Equipment -- -- 15,077 1.2% -- -- 18,046 1.7% -- -- 20,686 1.9% -- -- 20,866 1.9% Lawn and Garden Equipment -- -- 4,063 0.3% -- -- 4,138 0.4% -- -- 5,058 0.5% -- -- 5,182 0.5% Light Commercial Equipment -- -- 4,051 0.3% -- -- 3,858 0.4% -- -- 5,414 0.5% -- -- 5,414 0.5% Other Portable Equipment -- -- 8,341 0.7% -- -- 9,641 0.9% -- -- 13,320 1.2% -- -- 14,706 1.3% Pleasure Craft -- -- 3,276 0.3% -- -- 4,499 0.4% -- -- 7,241 0.7% -- -- 7,418 0.7% Recreational Equipment -- -- 886 0.1% -- -- 1,224 0.1% -- -- 1,877 0.2% -- -- 1,923 0.2% Transport Refrigeration Units -- -- 559 0.0% -- -- 696 0.1% -- -- 808 0.1% -- -- 849 0.1% Solid Waste 199,805 Tons 57,018 4.6% 119,027 Tons 33,934 3.2% 140,907 Tons 40,172 3.7% 140,474 Tons 40,048 3.7% Waste Generation 196,453 Tons 116,215 Tons 137,578 Tons 137,155 Tons Alternative Daily Cover 3,351 Tons 2,812 Tons 3,329 Tons 3,319 Tons Water Supply 11,447,226 HCF 577 0.0% 11,787,910 HCF 128 0.0% 13,954,805 HCF 0 0.0% 14,295,959 HCF 0 0.0% Wastewater Treatment 4,135 0.3% 3,741 0.4% 3,686 0.3% 3,776 0.3% Total MTCO2e/yr 1,242,786 1,053,414 1,076,571 1,095,984 2030 GHG Emissions 2050 GHG Emissions
40,048 3.7%
City of Fremont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecast

3.2% 3.7%40,17257,018 4.6% 33,934
2045 GHG Emissions2018 GHG Emissions
Emissions Sector

Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Building Energy - Nonresidential 78,757 9.0% 36,581 16.6% 31,923 14.6% Electricity
PG&E 181,069 MWh 9,376 1.1% 239,146 MWh 0 0.0% 223,728 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - First Tier 170,666 MWh 0 0.0% 225,406 MWh 0 0.0% 210,873 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Second Tier 2,132 MWh 0 0.0% 2,816 MWh 0 0.0% 2,635 MWh 0 0.0% Electricity Subtotal 353,867 MWh 9,376 0 467,368 MWh 0 0 437,236 MWh 0 0.0% Natural Gas
PG&E - Commercial 7,663,939 therms 40,699 4.7% 0 therms 0 0.0% 0 therms 0 0.0% PG&E - Industrial 5,381,137 therms 28,576 3.3% 6,863,398 therms 36,448 16.6% 5,985,692 therms 31,787 14.5% Back-Up Generators 32 mcf 2 0.0% 0 mcf 0 0.0% 0 mcf 0 0.0% Natural Gas Subtotal 13,045,108 69,277 0 6,863,398 36,448 0 5,985,692 31,787 14.5% Diesel
Back-Up Generators 9,357 gallons 104 0.0% 11,935 gallons 133 0.1% 12,226 gallons 137 0.1% Diesel Subtotal 9,357 104 0% 11,935 133 0% 12,226 137 0.1% Building Energy - Residential 79,137 9.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Electricity
PG&E 160,701 MWh 8,321 1.0% 175,912 MWh 0 0.0% 178,307 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - First Tier 22,880 MWh 0 0.0% 25,045 MWh 0 0.0% 25,386 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Second Tier 6 MWh 0 0.0% 7 MWh 0 0.0% 7 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Third Tier 21 MWh 0 0.0% 23 MWh 0 0.0% 24 MWh 0 0.0% Electricity Subtotal 183,608 MWh 8,321 0 200,988 MWh 0 0 203,724 MWh 0 0.0% Natural Gas
PG&E 13,335,193 therms 70,816 8.1% 0 therms 0 0.0% 0 therms 0 0.0% Natural Gas Subtotal 13,335,193 70,816 8% 0 0 0% 0 0 0.0% On-Road Transportation 1,719,449,263 VMT 632,827 72.5% 1,500,557,239 VMT 83,352 37.9% 1,518,242,775 VMT 85,920 39.2% Passenger Vehicles 1,384,190,409 VMT 294,966 33.8% 1,100,611,694 VMT 25,288 11.5% 1,100,611,694 VMT 25,288 11.5% Heavy-Duty Vehicles 335,258,854 VMT 337,861 38.7% 399,945,546 VMT 58,065 26.4% 417,631,081 VMT 60,632 27.7% BART 77,496,854
Passenger
Miles 1,027 0.1% 91,742,597
Passenger
Miles 1,216 0.6% 93,985,438
Passenger
Miles 1,245 0.6%
Off-Road Transportation 43,610 5.0% 55,122 25.0% 56,312 25.7% Agricultural Equipment -- -- 10 0.0% -- -- 10 0.0% -- -- 10 0.0% Construction and Mining Equipme -- -- 11,028 1.3% -- -- 13,917 6.3% -- -- 14,533 6.6% Entertainment Equipment -- -- 111 0.0% -- -- 111 0.1% -- -- 116 0.1% Industrial Equipment -- -- 18,046 2.1% -- -- 20,686 9.4% -- -- 20,866 9.5% Lawn and Garden Equipment -- -- 4,138 0.5% -- -- 5,058 2.3% -- -- 5,182 2.4% Light Commercial Equipment -- -- 3,858 0.4% -- -- 5,414 2.5% -- -- 5,414 2.5% Pleasure Craft 4,499 0.5% 7,241 3.3% 7,418 3.4%
Recreational Equipment -- -- 1,224 0.1% -- -- 1,877 0.9% -- -- 1,923 0.9% Transport Refrigeration Units -- -- 696 0.1% -- -- 808 0.4% -- -- 849 0.4% Solid Waste 119,027 Tons 33,934 3.9% 140,907 Tons 40,172 18.2% 140,474 Tons 40,048 18.3% Waste Generation 116,215 Tons 137,578 Tons 137,155 Tons Alternative Daily Cover 2,812 Tons 3,329 Tons 3,319 Tons Water Supply 11,787,910 HCF 128 0.0% 13,954,805 HCF 0 0.0% 14,295,959 HCF 0 0.0% Wastewater Treatment 3,741 0.4% 3,686 1.7% 3,776 1.7%
Total MTCO2e/yr 873,161 220,129 219,225
33,934 3.9%
City of Fremont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecast - Zero-Carbon Energy Scenario Emissions Sector
2030 GHG Emissions 2045 GHG Emissions 2050 GHG Emissions 40,048 18.3%40,172 18.2%

Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Activity Units MT CO2e
CO2e %
of Annual
Total
Building Energy - Nonresidential 78,757 8.6% 90,336 18.5% 82,213 16.9% Electricity
PG&E 181,069 MWh 9,376 1.0% 239,146 MWh 0 0.0% 223,728 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - First Tier 170,666 MWh 0 0.0% 225,406 MWh 0 0.0% 210,873 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Second Tier 2,132 MWh 0 0.0% 2,816 MWh 0 0.0% 2,635 MWh 0 0.0% Electricity Subtotal 353,867 MWh 9,376 1.0% 467,368 MWh 0 0.0% 437,236 MWh 0 0.0% Natural Gas
PG&E - Commercial 7,663,939 therms 40,699 4.5% 10,122,106 therms 53,753 11.0% 9,469,514 therms 50,287 10.2% PG&E - Industrial 5,381,137 therms 28,576 3.1% 6,863,398 therms 36,448 7.5% 5,985,692 therms 31,787 6.5% Back-Up Generators 32 mcf 2 41 mcf 2 42 mcf 2
Natural Gas Subtotal 13,045,108 69,277 7.6% 16,985,544 90,203 18.5% 15,455,247 82,076 16.8% Diesel
Back-Up Generators 9,357 gallons 104 11,935 gallons 133 12,226 gallons 137 Diesel Subtotal 9,357 104 0.0% 11,935 133 0.0% 12,226 137 0.0% Building Energy - Residential 79,137 8.7% 77,519 15.9% 78,574 16.1% Electricity
PG&E 160,701 MWh 8,321 0.9% 175,912 MWh 0 0.0% 178,307 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - First Tier 22,880 MWh 0 0.0% 25,045 MWh 0 0.0% 25,386 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Second Tier 6 MWh 0 0.0% 7 MWh 0 0.0% 7 MWh 0 0.0% EBCE - Third Tier 21 MWh 0 0.0% 23 MWh 0 0.0% 24 MWh 0 0.0% Electricity Subtotal 183,608 MWh 8,321 0.9% 200,988 MWh 0 0.0% 203,724 MWh 0 0.0% Natural Gas
PG&E 13,335,193 therms 70,816 7.8% 14,597,447 therms 77,519 15.9% 14,796,176 therms 78,574 16.1% Natural Gas Subtotal 13,335,193 70,816 7.8% 14,597,447 77,519 15.9% 14,796,176 78,574 16.1% On-Road Transportation 1,719,449,263 VMT 670,547 73.6% 1,964,457,001 VMT 219,169 45.0% 2,045,540,001 VMT 228,554 46.9% Passenger Vehicles 1,384,190,409 VMT 315,987 34.7% 1,564,511,455 VMT 83,071 17.0% 1,627,908,920 VMT 86,437 17.7% Heavy-Duty Vehicles 335,258,854 VMT 354,559 38.9% 399,945,546 VMT 136,098 27.9% 417,631,081 VMT 142,117 29.2% BART 77,496,854
Passenger
Miles 1,027 0.1% 91,742,597
Passenger
Miles 1,216 0.2% 93,985,438
Passenger
Miles 1,245 0.3%
Off-Road Transportation 43,610 4.8% 55,122 11.3% 56,312 11.6% Agricultural Equipment -- -- 10 0.0% -- -- 10 0.0% -- -- 10 0.0% Construction and Mining Equipme -- -- 11,028 1.2% -- -- 13,917 2.9% -- -- 14,533 3.0% Entertainment Equipment -- -- 111 0.0% -- -- 111 0.0% -- -- 116 0.0% Industrial Equipment -- -- 18,046 2.0% -- -- 20,686 4.2% -- -- 20,866 4.3% Lawn and Garden Equipment -- -- 4,138 0.5% -- -- 5,058 1.0% -- -- 5,182 1.1% Light Commercial Equipment -- -- 3,858 0.4% -- -- 5,414 1.1% -- -- 5,414 1.1% Pleasure Craft 4,499 0.5% 7,241 1.5% 7,418 1.5%
Recreational Equipment -- -- 1,224 0.1% -- -- 1,877 0.4% -- -- 1,923 0.4% Transport Refrigeration Units -- -- 696 0.1% -- -- 808 0.2% -- -- 849 0.2% Solid Waste 119,027 Tons 33,934 3.7% 140,907 Tons 40,172 8.2% 140,474 Tons 40,048 8.2% Waste Generation 116,215 Tons 137,578 Tons 137,155 Tons Alternative Daily Cover 2,812 Tons 3,329 Tons 3,319 Tons Water Supply 11,787,910 HCF 128 0.0% 13,954,805 HCF 0 0.0% 14,295,959 HCF 0 0.0% Wastewater Treatment 3,741 0.4% 3,686 0.8% 3,776 0.8%
Total MTCO2e/yr 910,881 487,220 490,723
33,934 3.7%
City of Fremont Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecast - Balanced Scenario Emissions Sector
2030 GHG Emissions 2045 GHG Emissions 2050 GHG Emissions 40,048 8.2%40,172 8.2%

Building Energy Consumption
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Electricity
CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O PG&E Residential 316,618 206 0.0340 0.0040 29,915 Population 315,645 189 0.0315 0.0037 27,375 319,010 113 0.0189 0.0022 16,518 334,221 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 336,616 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 EBCE Residential - First Tier 45,078 0.00010 0.0000 0.0000 2,060 Population 44,940 0.000046 0.0000 0.0000 2,054 45,419 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 - 47,584 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 47,925 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 EBCE Residential - Second Tier 13 0 0.0000 0.0000 - Population 13 0 0.0000 0.0000 - 13 0 0.0000 0.0000 - 13 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 14 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 EBCE Residential - Third Tier 42 0 0.0000 0.0000 - Population 42 0 0.0000 0.0000 - 42 0 0.0000 0.0000 - 44 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 45 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 PG&E Non-Residential 397,272 206 0.0340 0.0040 37,536 Employment 355,023 189 0.0315 0.0037 30,790 379,705 113 0.0189 0.0022 19,661 437,782 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 422,364 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 EBCE Non-Residential - First Tier 374,447 0.00010 0.0000 0.0000 17,112 Employment 334,625 0.000046 0.0000 0.0000 15,292 357,889 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 - 412,629 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 398,097 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 EBCE Non-Residential - Second Tier 4,678 0 0.0000 0.0000 - Employment 4,181 0 0.0000 0.0000 - 4,472 0 0.0000 0.0000 - 5,155 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 4,974 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0 Total 86,623 Total 75,510 Total 36,179 Total 0.0 Total 0.0 Sources: EBEW GHG Community Inventory 2018, EBCE Pers. Comm. 2020 Natural Gas
CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O PG&E Residential 26,273,478 11.7 0.0002267 0.000005 139,524 Population 26,192,744 11.7 0.00022674 0.000005 139,095 26,471,932 11.7 0.000226742 0.000005 140,578 27,734,186 11.7 0.000227 0.000005 147,281 27,932,915 11.7 0.00022674 0.000005 148,337 PG&E Commercial 16,814,957 11.7 0.0002267 0.000005 89,295 Employment 15,026,702 11.7 0.00022674 0.000005 79,799 16,071,417 11.7 0.000226742 0.000005 85,347 18,529,584 11.7 0.000227 0.000005 98,401 17,876,992 11.7 0.00022674 0.000005 94,935 PG&E Industrial 5,630,094 11.7 0.0002267 0.000005 29,898 Employment 5,031,339 11.7 0.00022674 0.000005 26,719 5,381,137 11.7 0.000226742 0.000005 28,576 6,863,398 11.7 0.000227 0.000005 36,448 5,985,692 11.7 0.00022674 0.000005 31,787 Total 258,718 Total 245,613 Total 254,501 Total 282,129 Total 275,058 Sources: EBEW GHG Community Inventory 2018, EBCE Pers. Comm. 2020 California Building Energy Efficiency Standards
Residential 75%
Nonresidential 53%
Building Energy Efficiency Assumptions
Residential %
Energy effiency improvement of 2013
code above 2008 code 25%
Energy effiency improvement of 2016
code above 2013 code 28%
Energy effiency improvement of 2019
code above 2016 code 53%
Commercial
Energy effiency improvement of 2013
code above 2008 code 30%
Energy effiency improvement of 2016
code above 2013 code 5%
Energy effiency improvement of 2019
code above 2016 code 30%
Percent Improvement between 2008 and 2019 standards
Source Total MT
CO2e/year therms/year Total MT
CO2e/yearScale Factor therms/yearTotal MT
CO2e/yeartherms/year Emission Factors (lb/therm)
2018 2020
Emission Factors (lb/therm)
Total MT
CO2e/year
2045
Emission Factors (lb/therm)
Emission Factors
(lb/MWh delivered) Total MT
CO2e/year MWH/year
Emission Factors
(lb/MWh delivered) Total MT
CO2e/year
therms/year Total MT
CO2e/year
2030
Emission Factors (lb/therm)
MWH/year
2030 2045
Source MWH/year Total MT
CO2e/year
Emission Factors
(lb/MWh delivered)
Emission Factors
(lb/MWh delivered)
2018
MWH/year
2020
Scale Factor
therms/year Emission Factors (lb/therm) Total MT
CO2e/year
2050
MWH/year
Emission Factors
(lb/MWh delivered) Total MT
CO2e/year
2050

Generator Fuel Consumption
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Amount
Emissions
(MTCO2e) Amount
Emissions
(MTCO2e) Amount
Emissions
(MTCO2e) Amount
Emissions
(MTCO2e) Amount
Emissions
(MTCO2e)
Diesel (gal) 9,790 109.31 Diesel (gal) 8,749 97.68 Diesel (gal) 9,357 104.47 Diesel (gal) 11,935 133.25 Diesel (gal) 12,226 136.51 Natural Gas (mcf) 33 1.83 Natural Gas (mcf) 30 1.64 Natural Ga 32 1.75 Natural Ga 41 2.23 Natural Gas (scf) 42 2.29 Total 111.14 Total 99.32 Total 106.22 Total 135.48 Total 138.80 FacilityName Plant City Hr/day Day/wk Wk/yr Ignition Type Horse Pow EmergencyPrimary Use Fuel Usage Date Usage/yr Usage Unit Max Fuel/hr Max Fuel Unit Fuel Usage Fuel Usage Unit Alameda County Water Di Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 1592 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 12/28/2018 9.7 Hours 82.4 gallons/hr 799.28 gallons Alameda County Water Di Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 1592 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 12/28/2018 9.2999999 Hours 82.4 gallons/hr 766.32 gallons XO Communications Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 2198 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 12/31/2018 16 Hours 113.8 gallons/hr 1,820.80 gallons XO Communications Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 2198 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 12/31/2018 4 Hours 113.8 gallons/hr 455.20 gallons Sysco San Francisco, Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 1850 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 10/1/2018 5.7411273 Hours 95.8 gallons/hr 550.00 gallons Sysco San Francisco, Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 1120 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 10/1/2018 6 Hours 58 gallons/hr 348.00 gallons Sysco San Francisco, Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 310 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 10/1/2018 0 Hours 22.54 gallons/hr - gallons Sysco San Francisco, Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 526 Emergency Fire Pump drivDiesel fuel 11/1/2018 5.9848485 Hours 26.4 gallons/hr 158.00 gallons Pacific Gas and Electric Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 225 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 10/8/2018 8.799735 Hours 16.36 gallons/hr 143.96 gallons Pacific Gas and Electric Fremont 0.25 1 50 2 Stroke Comp 150 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 10/8/2018 11.599741 Hours 10.91 gallons/hr 126.55 gallons Verizon Business - FRMOC Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 2018 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 6/30/2018 18 Hours 104.5 gallons/hr 1,881.00 gallons Sutter Bay Medical Founda Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 470 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 11/15/2018 4.5324675 Hours 23.1 gallons/hr 104.70 gallons Lucky #714 Fremont 2 1 50 4 Stroke Spark 75 Emergency Electrical GenNatural gas 9/27/2018 16.99429 Thousand Cubic Feet 584 scf/hr 16.99 mcf LBA Realty Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 535 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 10/1/2018 0 Hours 25.3 gallons/hr - gallons LBA Realty Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 325 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 10/1/2018 3.0864198 Hours 16.2 gallons/hr 50.00 gallons Boehringer Ingelheim Frem Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 755 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 9/1/2018 2.3999997 Hours 35 gallons/hr 84.00 gallons Communication & Control Fremont 0.5 1 52 4 Stroke Spark 48 Emergency Electrical GenLPG 12/1/2018 NULL Thousand Gallons 5.85 gallons/hr gallons Communication & Control Fremont 1 2 50 4 Stroke Spark 69 Emergency Electrical GenLPG 12/1/2018 0.09126 Thousand Gallons 5.85 gallons/hr 533.87 gallons Target Store #T2615 Fremont 1 2 50 4 Stroke Spark 164.22 Emergency Electrical GenLPG 7/26/2018 0 Thousand Gallons 14 gallons/hr - gallons Target Store #T2615 Fremont 1 2 50 4 Stroke Spark 164.22 Emergency Electrical GenNatural gas 7/26/2018 3.401905 Thousand Cubic Feet 1260 scf/hr 3.40 mcf Whole Foods Market Fremont 1 1 50 4 Stroke Spark 85.64999 Emergency Electrical GenNatural gas 4/18/2018 10.13048 Thousand Cubic Feet 760 scf/hr 10.13 mcf City of Fremont Fremont 0.25 1 50 2 Stroke Comp 1232 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 12/14/2018 14.13046 Hours 65 gallons/hr 918.48 gallons Safeway Inc #309 Fremont 1 1 50 4 Stroke Spark 56 Emergency Electrical GenNatural gas 12/31/2018 2.965714 Thousand Cubic Feet 245.1 scf/hr 2.97 mcf SF Bay Area Rapid Transit Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 755 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 8/15/2018 7.7368421 Hours 38 gallons/hr 294.00 gallons UL LLC Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 324 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 11/30/2018 4.0450947 Hours 8.87 gallons/hr 35.88 gallons Prologis Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 157 Emergency Fire Pump drivDiesel fuel 12/31/2018 12.264151 Hours 10.6 gallons/hr 130.00 gallons Prologis Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 157 Emergency Fire Pump drivDiesel fuel 12/31/2018 12.264151 Hours 10.6 gallons/hr 130.00 gallons TE Electronics Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 1043 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 11/30/2018 1.153846 Hours 52 gallons/hr 60.00 gallons Facebook Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 1490 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 6/1/2018 1.4430013 Hours 69.3 gallons/hr 100.00 gallons Facebook Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 1490 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 4/1/2018 0 Thousand Gallons 69.3 gallons/hr - gallons Facebook Inc Fremont 0.25 1 50 4 Stroke Comp 587.2 Emergency Electrical GenDiesel fuel 2/28/2018 0.00483 Thousand Gallons 29 gallons/hr 140.07 gallons ALOM Diesel Packaged Pum FREMONT 1 1 34 4 Stroke Spark 144 Emergency Fire Pump drivDiesel fuel 8/16/2018 16 Hours 10 gallons/hr 160.00 gallons 2018 2020 2030 2045 2050

On-Road Transportation
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
2018 2020 2030 2040 2045 2050
Passenger
Daily VMT (not including MCY) 3,751,147 3,799,443 3,966,730 4,301,837 4,483,546 4,665,254 Daily VMT (all vehicles) 3,772,955 3,821,436 3,989,021 4,325,935 4,508,679 4,691,380 Annual VMT (all vehicles) 1,309,215,427 1,326,038,185 1,384,190,409 1,501,099,416 1,564,511,455 1,627,908,920 MTCO2e/year 411,108 315,987 302,296 309,785 320,250 Commercial
Daily VMT (all vehicles) 758,407 771,132 966,164 1,094,009 1,152,581 1,203,548 - Annual VMT (all vehicles) 263,167,145 267,582,733 335,258,854 379,621,163 399,945,546 417,631,081 - MTCO2e/year 348,034 354,559 359,074 371,006 384,448

2018 2020 2030 2040 2045 2050
Motorcycles as a percent of light-duty VMT 0.58% 0.58% 0.56% 0.56% 0.56% 0.56% Fremont LEHD Share of Alameda County 20.26% 20.26% 20.26% 20.26% 20.26% 20.26%

BART
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Station Annual Passenger Miles MTCO2e Annual Passenger Miles MTCO2e Annual Passenger Miles MTCO2e Annual Passenger Miles MTCO2e Annual Passenger Miles MTCO2e Embarcadero 1,093,405 14.49 1,090,045 14.44 1,125,946 14.92 1,332,921 17.66 1,365,507 18.09 Fremont 40,103,161 531.40 39,979,931 529.77 41,296,682 547.22 48,887,983 647.81 50,083,152 663.65 Hayward 181,245 2.40 180,688 2.39 186,639 2.47 220,948 2.93 226,349 3.00 South Hayward 564,446 7.48 562,712 7.46 581,245 7.70 688,091 9.12 704,913 9.34 Union City 10,055,828 133.25 10,024,928 132.84 10,355,102 137.21 12,258,614 162.44 12,558,301 166.41 Warm Springs/South Fremont 23,259,022 308.20 23,187,551 307.26 23,951,240 317.38 28,354,041 375.72 29,047,215 384.90 Total 75,257,107 997 75,025,856 994 77,496,854 1,027 91,742,597 1,216 93,985,438 1,245 Emissions factor in 2018 and
future years
(MTCO2e/passenger mile) 0.000013
2018 2020 2030 2045 2050

Off-Road Transportation
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Off-Road Equipment
CO2
(tons/day)
CH4
(tons/day)
N2O
(tons/day)
CO2e
(MT/yr)
CO2
(tons/day) CH4 (tons/day) N2O (tons/day) CO2e (MT/yr) CO2 (tons/day) CH4 (tons/day) N2O (tons/day) CO2e (MT/yr) CO2 (tons/day) CH4 (tons/day) N2O (tons/day)
CO2e
(MT/yr)
CO2
(tons/day)
CH4
(tons/day)
N2O
(tons/day)
CO2e
(MT/yr)
CO2
(tons/day)
CH4
(tons/day)
N2O
(tons/day)
CO2e
(MT/yr)
CO2
(tons/day)
CH4
(tons/day)
N2O
(tons/day)
CO2e
(MT/yr) Allocation Method
Agricultural Equipment 0.03195599 0.000007 0.000000 10.7 0.031330535 0.00000 0.00000 10.4 0.03124 0.00000 0.00000 10.4 0.03091 0.00000 0.00000 10.3 0.03067 0.00000 0.00000 10.2 0.03059 0.00000 0.00000 10.2 0.03051 0.00000 0.00000 10.2 Acres of agricultural land Airport Ground Support Equipment 0 - - 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 All to Oakland Construction and Mining Equipment 13.477466 0.002544 0.000088 4494.0 29.88578212 0.00240 0.00018 9933.6 24.40094 0.00173 0.00014 8108.2 33.21163 0.00155 0.00019 11028.4 37.72377 0.00156 0.00022 12525.0 41.91584 0.00173 0.00025 13916.9 43.77251 0.00181 0.00026 14533.3 Change in service population Entertainment Equipment 0.36904325 0.000042 - 122.6 0.3670858 0.00001 0.00000 121.7 0.35395 0.00001 0.00000 117.3 0.33486 0.00001 0.00000 110.9 0.34377 0.00001 0.00000 113.9 0.33431 0.00001 0.00000 110.8 0.35101 0.00001 0.00000 116.3 Population Industrial Equipment 40.0922288 0.035932 0.003541 13919.3 44.5164373 0.01311 0.00245 15077.2 45.97336 0.01328 0.00253 15568.0 53.30435 0.01490 0.00294 18046.1 60.56727 0.01688 0.00334 20504.9 61.10079 0.01703 0.00337 20685.5 61.63432 0.01718 0.00340 20866.1 Acres of industrial land Lawn and Garden Equipment 9.13527893 0.018042 0.007097 3814.9 10.12275101 0.01497 0.00652 4062.8 9.99652 0.01467 0.00641 4008.6 10.33143 0.01499 0.00658 4137.5 11.67663 0.01693 0.00744 4676.0 12.63053 0.01831 0.00805 5058.0 12.93931 0.01876 0.00824 5181.7 Households Light Commercial Equipment 8.90849045 0.004881 0.001534 3129.6 11.66404044 0.00288 0.00185 4050.9 9.53296 0.00221 0.00149 3307.6 11.13694 0.00229 0.00170 3858.1 12.90794 0.00263 0.00197 4471.3 15.63028 0.00318 0.00239 5414.3 15.63028 0.00318 0.00239 5414.3 Jobs Oil Drilling 0 - - 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 Number of active wells Other Portable Equipment 18.5961163 0.002784 - 6183.4 25.14911781 0.00142 0.00000 8340.6 25.22881 0.00120 0.00000 8365.0 29.09471 0.00078 0.00000 9641.2 36.41045 0.00084 0.00000 12064.1 40.20007 0.00093 0.00000 13319.8 44.38413 0.00102 0.00000 14706.1 Population Pleasure Craft 6.12942833 0.009238 0.001554 2251.6 9.217953725 0.00567 0.00196 3276.4 9.47124 0.00519 0.00195 3355.0 12.81489 0.00547 0.00233 4498.7 20.01601 0.00911 0.00364 7031.7 20.61306 0.00938 0.00375 7241.5 21.11699 0.00961 0.00384 7418.5 Population Railyard Operations 0 - - 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 Not included (de minimis) Recreational Equipment 1.02083881 0.009299 0.001527 558.2 1.627588051 0.01397 0.00248 885.8 1.68243 0.01436 0.00256 915.1 2.24709 0.01931 0.00343 1224.4 3.34309 0.02899 0.00510 1822.9 3.44281 0.02985 0.00525 1877.3 3.52697 0.03058 0.00538 1923.2 Population Transport Refrigeration Units 1.49683732 0.000669 0.000021 503.7 1.682502312 0.00013 0.00001 559.3 1.75473 0.00013 0.00001 583.2 2.09511 0.00015 0.00001 695.9 2.31431 0.00016 0.00001 768.4 2.43236 0.00017 0.00001 807.6 2.55643 0.00018 0.00001 848.7 Share of road miles 34,988 Total 46,318 Total 44,338 Total 53,251 Total 63,989 Total 68,442 Total 71,018 2005
CH4:CO2 N2O:CO2 CH4:CO2 N2O:CO2 CH4:CO2 N2O:CO2 CH4:CO2 N2O:CO2 CH4:CO2 N2O:CO2 CH4:CO2 N2O:CO2 CH4:CO2 N2O:CO2 Agricultural Equipment 0.00020619 0.00001238 0.00008309 0.00001273 0.00007080 0.00001276 0.00004354 0.00001435 0.00004088 0.00001678 0.00004088 0.00001678 0.00004088 0.00001678 Construction and Mining Equipment 0.00018873 0.00000652 0.00008033 0.00000590 0.00007084 0.00000583 0.00004677 0.00000579 0.00004134 0.00000585 0.00004134 0.00000585 0.00004134 0.00000585 Industrial Equipment 0.00089623 0.00008832 0.00029458 0.00005508 0.00028888 0.00005504 0.00027947 0.00005509 0.00027871 0.00005516 0.00027871 0.00005516 0.00027871 0.00005516 Light Commercial Equipment 0.00054793 0.00017217 0.00024713 0.00015818 0.00023229 0.00015595 0.00020593 0.00015258 0.00020363 0.00015260 0.00020363 0.00015260 0.00020363 0.00015260 Other Portable Equipment 0.00014968 - 0.00005643 - 0.00004762 - 0.00002686 - 0.00002307 - 0.00002307 - 0.00002307 - Transport Refrigeration Units 0.00044706 0.00001398 0.00007489 0.00000661 0.00007336 0.00000607 0.00007158 0.00000398 0.00007050 0.00000260 0.00007050 0.00000260 0.00007050 0.00000260 *Note: 2040 data used as proxy *Note: 2040 data used as proxy 2045 2050
Equipment Sector 2020 2030 2040 2045 2050
2018
2018
2020 2030 20402005
OFFROAD2007 to OFFROAD2017 Conversion for CH4 and N2O Emissions

Demographics
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Community
Population Households Jobs Population Households Jobs Agricultural acres Industrial acres Active oil wells Population Households Jobs Population Households Jobs Population Households Jobs Population Households Jobs Population Households Jobs Fremont 206,712 69,725 89,988 232,685 73,467 115,403 978 5,573 0 231,970 77,065 103,130 239,610 79,215 110,300 275,440 90,160 118,460 283,656 89,560 140,683 290,591 91,750 144,122 Alameda County Total 1,462,736 534,810 660,053 1,655,306 569,598 766,657 144,222 23,678 7 1,711,465 614,970 858,690 1,868,640 668,285 901,085 2,092,365 734,225 952,940 2,154,777 694,372 934,597 2,207,455 711,347 957,445 Fremont (Percent of County) 14% 13% 14% 14% 13% 15% 1% 24% 14% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 13% 15% 13% 13% 15% Fremont Growth Rate (from 2018) -0.3% 4.9% -10.6% 3.0% 7.8% -4.4% 18.4% 22.7% 2.6% 21.9% 21.9% 21.9% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9% Alameda County Growth Rate (from 2040) 3% 6%
Source: MTC, EBEW GHG Community Inventory 2018
Local road miles
Community 2005 2010 2015 2017 2018
Alameda 120.86 119.92 177.04 135.44 136.18
Alameda County (Unincorporated) 493.61 471.7 623.73 485.16 490.09 Albany 27.15 27.15 31.87 30.26 29.52
Berkeley 222.82 222.82 226.84 224.74 216.32
Dublin 67.42 66.28 119.19 106.89 107.44
Emeryville 19.85 19.85 21.26 21.56 19.74
Fremont 487.69 487.69 550.96 528.55 498.42
Hayward 240.5 270.3 314.94 287.77 287.3
Livermore 279.86 279.89 326.34 333.11 318.44
Newark 100.69 100.69 106.59 106.53 102.55
Oakland 816.32 815.85 872.61 823.25 824.87
Piedmont 43.6 43.6 37.91 37.83 37.06
Pleasanton 198.91 200.24 252.5 214.26 211.92
San Leandro 176.55 176.55 196.21 197.06 187.69
Union City 151.59 151.59 154.71 138.41 135.84
Total 3447.42 3454.12 4012.7 3670.82 3603.38
Fremont (Percent of County) 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Data from Caltrans HPMS tables
https://dot.ca.gov/programs/research-innovation-system-information/highway-performance-monitoring-system 205020402005 2018 2020 2030 2045

Solid Waste
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Waste Generation Emissions
Receiving Landfill
Tonnage
Disposed by
City Total ADC
Percent of
Total Tonnage
Disposed MTCO2e
Tonnage
Disposed by
City Total ADC
Percent of
Total
Tonnage MTCO2e
Tonnage
Disposed by
City Total ADC
Percent of
Total
Tonnage MTCO2e
Tonnage
Disposed
by City Total ADC
Percent of
Total
Tonnage MTCO2e
Tonnage
Disposed
by City Total ADC
Percent of
Total
Tonnage MTCO2e
Altamont Landfill and Resource Recovery 178,813 533 91% 51,280 178,264 531 91% 51,122 105,779 447 91% 30,368 125,224 529 91% 35,950 124,839 528 91% 35,840 Azusa Land Reclamation Co. Landfill 30 - 0% 8 30 - 0% 8 18 - 0% 5 21 - 0% 6 21 - 0% 6 Clean Harbors Buttonwillow LLC 1 - 0% 0 1 - 0% 0 1 - 0% 0 1 - 0% 0 1 - 0% 0 Corinda Los Trancos Landfill ( Ox Mtn) 126 - 0% 36 126 - 0% 36 75 - 0% 21 88 - 0% 25 88 - 0% 25 Fink Road Landfill 62 - 0% 18 61 - 0% 18 36 - 0% 10 43 - 0% 12 43 - 0% 12 Foothill Sanitary Landfill 46 - 0% 13 45 - 0% 13 27 - 0% 8 32 - 0% 9 32 - 0% 9 Forward Landfill, Inc. 29 - 0% 8 29 - 0% 8 17 - 0% 5 20 - 0% 6 20 - 0% 6 Guadalupe Sanitary Landfill 221 46 0% 75 221 46 0% 74 131 38 0% 47 155 46 0% 55 154 45 0% 55 Keller Canyon Landfill 252 29 0% 79 251 29 0% 79 149 25 0% 49 176 29 0% 58 176 29 0% 57 Kettleman Hills - B18 Nonhaz Codisposal 1 - 0% 0 1 - 0% 0 0 - 0% 0 0 - 0% 0 0 - 0% 0 Kirby Canyon Recycl.& Disp. Facility 98 - 0% 28 97 - 0% 28 58 - 0% 17 68 - 0% 20 68 - 0% 19 McKittrick Waste Treatment Site 30 - 0% 9 30 - 0% 8 18 - 0% 5 21 - 0% 6 21 - 0% 6 Monterey Peninsula Landfill 11,480 - 6% 3,284 11,445 - 6% 3,274 6,791 - 6% 1,943 8,040 - 6% 2,300 8,015 - 6% 2,293 Newby Island Sanitary Landfill 943 - 0% 270 940 - 0% 269 558 - 0% 160 660 - 0% 189 658 - 0% 188 Potrero Hills Landfill 2,292 171 1% 698 2,284 171 1% 695 1,356 144 1% 423 1,605 170 1% 501 1,600 170 1% 499 Recology Hay Road 428 - 0% 123 427 - 0% 122 253 - 0% 72 300 - 0% 86 299 - 0% 86 Redwood Landfill 2 1 0% 1 2 1 0% 1 1 1 0% 0 1 1 0% 1 1 1 0% 1 Vasco Road Sanitary Landfill 1,439 2,463 1% 1,017 1,434 2,456 1% 1,014 851 2,067 1% 751 1,007 2,447 1% 889 1,004 2,439 1% 887 Yolo County Central Landfill 10 - 0% 3 10 - 0% 3 6 - 0% 2 7 - 0% 2 7 - 0% 2 Zanker Material Processing Facility 154 108 0% 70 153 108 0% 70 91 91 0% 48 108 107 0% 57 107 107 0% 57 Total 196,453 3,351 1 57,018 195,849 3,341 1 56,843 116,215 2,812 1 33,934 137,578 3,329 1 40,172 137,155 3,319 1 40,048 Source: CalRecycle, US Local Government Operations Protocol Equation 9.1 Note: Excludes compositing faciltiies, transfer stations, inert debris disposal sites, and planned landfills not yet in operation.

Waste characterization constants
LFG collection rate 75%
Oxidation rate of uncaptured gas 10%
Oxidation rate of captured methane to CO2 99%
Carbon to methane generation rate 1.333333333
Decomposing carbon to methane rate 0.5
All values here from the Local Government Operations Protocol (LGOP) Note: Equation 9.1: Landfills with Comprehensive LFG Collection Systems California Default
Waste Type WIPFRAC TDOC DANF %ANDOC MTCO2e/ton
Newspaper 1.44% 47.09% 15.05% 0.12% 27.90%
Office Paper 0.73% 38.54% 87.03% 0.62% 132.06%
Corrugated Boxes 3.13% 44.84% 44.25% 0.95% 78.12%
Coated Paper 12.10% 33.03% 24.31% 0.72% 31.61%
Food 18.12% 14.83% 86.52% 1.99% 50.52%
Grass 1.84% 13.30% 47.36% 0.12% 24.80%
Leaves 3.52% 29.13% 7.30% 0.07% 8.37%
Branches 3.27% 44.24% 23.14% 0.20% 40.31%
Lumber 11.91% 43.00% 23.26% 1.45% 39.38%
Textiles 5.85% 24.00% 50.00% 0.66% 47.25%
Diapers 4.29% 24.00% 50.00% 0.52% 47.25%
Construction/Demolition 2.31% 4.00% 50.00% 0.11% 7.87%
Medical Waste 0.11% 15.00% 50.00% 0.00% 29.53%
Sludge/Manure 0.57% 5.00% 50.00% 0.00% 9.84%
MSW Total 7.52% 0.28604673
Alternative Daily Cover (ADC)
Waste Type WIPFRAC TDOC DANF %ANDOC MTCO2e/ton
Newspaper 0.00% 47.09% 15.05% 0.12% 0.2790298
Office Paper 0.00% 38.54% 87.03% 0.62% 1.3205844
Corrugated Boxes 0.00% 44.84% 44.25% 0.95% 0.7812038
20452018 2020 2030 2050

Coated Paper 0.00% 33.03% 24.31% 0.72% 0.3161397
Food 0.00% 14.83% 86.52% 1.99% 0.5051765
Grass 50.00% 13.30% 47.36% 0.12% 0.2479984
Leaves 25.00% 29.13% 7.30% 0.07% 0.0837238
Branches 25.00% 44.24% 23.14% 0.20% 0.4030547
Lumber 0.00% 43.00% 23.26% 1.45% 0.3937890
Textiles 0.00% 24.00% 50.00% 0.66% 0.4724618
Diapers 0.00% 24.00% 50.00% 0.52% 0.4724618
Construction/Demolition 0.00% 4.00% 50.00% 0.11% 0.0787436 Medical Waste 0.00% 15.00% 50.00% 0.00% 0.2952886
Sludge/Manure 0.00% 5.00% 50.00% 0.00% 0.0984295
MSW Total 7.52% 0.245693785
The static values here are from the California Landfill Emissions Tool Version 1.3 At time of writing, this file is currently available at https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/landfills/landfills.htm Waste Diversion Target
Statewide per capita diversion target 2.7 75% diversion 2018 Fremont calculated disposal rate 4.7 56% diversion Water Supply
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
HCF/year Total KWh
Emission Factor
(lb CO2/MWh)
Emission Factor
(lb CH4/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
N2O/MWh)
Total CO2e
(MT/year) HCF/year Total KWh
Emission
Factor (lb
CO2/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
CH4/MW
h)
Emission
Factor (lb
N2O/MWh)
Total
CO2e
(MT/ye
ar) HCF/year Total KWh
Emission
Factor (lb
CO2/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
CH4/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
N2O/MWh)
Total CO2e
(MT/year) HCF/year Total KWh
Emission
Factor (lb
CO2/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
CH4/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
N2O/MWh)
Total CO2e
(MT/year) HCF/year Total KWh
Emission
Factor (lb
CO2/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
CH4/MWh)
Emission
Factor (lb
N2O/MWh)
Total CO2e
(MT/year)
2,403,918 206.29 0.0340 0.004 227 2,396,531 189.3346575 0.0315 0.004 208 2,475,462 113.035616 0.0189 0.002 128.18 2,930,510 0 0.0000 0.000 - 3,002,152 0 0.0000 0.000 - 7,662,488 0.0001 0.0000 0.000 350 7,638,943 0.00005 0.0000 0.000 349 7,890,534 0 0.0000 0.000 - 9,340,999 0 0.0000 0.000 - 9,569,359 0 0.0000 0.000 - Total 577 Total 557 Total 128.18 Total - Total - Notes: Water district serves Fremont, Union City, and Newark. Water energy use was adjusted to only account for Fremont usage. 2018
Average Daily Gallons per Capita 100.83
Average Annual HCF per Capita 49.20
Estimated kWh/HCF 0.88
HFC/pop 49 4,919.62 13.48

3.68 36,801.34 100.83

0.01 ACWD 2018
Total electricity consumption (kWh) 15254249
Number of PG&E accounts 16
Number of EBCE accounts 51
Electricity consumption from PG&E (%) 24%
Electricity consumption from EBCE (%) 76%
11,447,226 11,412,051 11,787,910 13,954,805 14,295,959 2018 2020 2030 2045 2050

Wastewater Treatment
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Wastewater Treatment Total
Total MT CO2e/year 4,135 Total MT CO2e/year 4,032 Total MT CO2e/year 3,741 Total MT CO2e/year 3,686 Total MT CO2e/year 3,776 WW.1.a Stationary Methane Emissions from Combustion or Digester Gas WWTP
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
Fraction of CH4 in
gas
BTU content of CH4
(BTU/ft^3) MT CH4/year Total MT CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced per
day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Union Sanitation District 408,198 0.6 1,028 0.294 8.24 406,943 0.293 8.21 420,346 0.303 8.48 497,615 0.359 10.04 509,781 0.368 10.29 Source:

WW.2.a Stationary Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Combustion of Digester Gas WWTP
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
Fraction of CH4 in
gas
BTU content of CH4
(BTU/ft^3) MT N2O/year Total MT CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced per
day (ft^3/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Union Sanitation District 408,198 0.6 1,028 0.058 15.35 406,943 0.058 15.31 420,346 0.060 15.81 497,615 0.071 18.72 509,781 0.072 19.17 Source:

WW.8 Process Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Wastewater Treatment Plants without Nitrification or Denitrification WWTP Population
Factor for high
nitrogen loading of
industrial or
commercial
discharge
Emissions factor for
a WWTP without
nitrification or
denitrification (g
N2O/person /year)
MT N2O/year Total MT CO2e/year Population MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year Population MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year Population MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year Population MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Union Sanitation District 232,685 1.25 3.2 0.93 246.65 231,970 0.93 245.89 239,610 0.96 253.99 283,656 1.13 300.68 290,591 1.16 308.03 Source:

WW.12 Fugitive Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Effluent Discharge WWTP Average total nitrogen
per day (kg N/day)
Emission factor (kg
N2O-N/kg sewage-
N discharged)
Molecular weight
ratio of N2O to N2 MT N2O/year Total MT CO2e/year Average total nitrogen per day (kg N/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Average total nitrogen
per day (kg N/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Average total nitrogen
per day (kg N/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Average total nitrogen per
day (kg N/day)
MT
N2O/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Union Sanitation District 2,307.70 0.005 1.57 6.61 1752.22 2,300.61 6.59 1746.83 2,376.38 6.81 1804.36 2,813.21 8.06 2136.05 2,881.99 8.26 2188.27 Source:

10.1 Stationary CH4 from Incomplete Combustion of Digester Gas WWTP
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
Fraction of CH4 in
gas MT CH4/year Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced
per day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Standard cubic feet of
digester gas produced per
day (ft^3/day)
MT
CH4/year
Total MT
CO2e/year
Union Sanitation District 408,198 0.6 16.76 469.26 406,943 16.71 467.82 420,346 17.26 483.23 497,615 20.43 572.06 509,781 20.93 586.04 Source:

Energy Consumption from WWTP
CO2 CH4 N2O
Electricity Consumption (MWh/year) 11,765 206 0.0340 0.0040 1,112 11,729 1,017 12,115 627 14,342 - 14,693 - Natural Gas Consumption (therms/year) 100,196 11.7 0.000226742 0.000005 532 99,888 530 103,178 548 122,144 649 125,130 664 Union Sanitation District 2018
Portion allocated
to Fremont
Gas production (scf/day) 618,567 408,198 Electricty consumption (kWh/year) 17,827,876 11,764,764 Natural gas consumption (therms/year) 151,833 100,196 Nitrogen load (kg N/day) 3,497 2,308 Total service population 352,602
Fremont population 232,685
Emission FactorsEnergy Source Amount Total MT CO2e/year 2050
Digester gas produced and fraction of CH4 in gas user input, 2010 Local Government Operations Protocol Equation 10.1
2018 2020 2030 2045
Digester gas produced and fraction of CH4 in gas user input, ICLEI 2019 US Community Protocol Equation WW.1.a
Digester gas produced and fraction of CH4 in gas user input, ICLEI 2019 US Community Protocol Equation WW.2.a
Population User Input, ICLEI 2019 US Community Protocol Equation WW.8 N-Load User Input, ICLEI 2019 US Community Protocol Equation WW.12 Amount Total MT
CO2e/year Amount Total MT
CO2e/yearAmount Total MT
CO2e/year Amount Total MT
CO2e/year

Assumptions and Conversion Factors
Fremont Greenhouse Gas Forecast
Category Value
g/MT 1000000
g/lb 453.592
g/kg 1000
lb/MT 2204.622622
kg/MT 1000
MT/ton 1.10231
g/ton 907185
lb/ton 2000
lb/kg 2.20462
kWh/MWh 1000
MWh/GWh 1000
gal/cubic foot 7.480519481
gal/Liter 3.785411784
gallon/acrefoot 325851.429
gal/MMBTU 0.1374
scf/MMBTU 972.8
Liter/gallon 0.264172052
kilograms/milligrams 1000000
year/days 365
million gal/acre-feet 0.325851429
days/year (VMT) 347
Source (Select) IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Avg) <--drop down selection CO2 1
CH4 28
N2O 265
Source CO2 GWP CH4 GWP N2O GWP
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (w/o
climate carbon feedback) 1 25 265
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (with
climate carbon feedback) 1 34 298
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Avg) 1 25 298
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Avg) 1 28 265
IPCC Third Assessment Report 1 23 296
IPCC Second Assessment Report 1 21 310
2018 2020 2030 2045/2050 Source
PG&E EF (lb CO2/MWh) 206 189.3346575 113.0356164 0
https://www.theclimateregistry.org/our-
members/cris-public-reports/
CAMX EF (lb CH4/MWh) 0.034 0.031481481 0.018888889 0
eGRID 2018
(https://www.epa.gov/energy/emissions-
generation-resource-integrated-database-
egrid)
CAMX EF (lb N2O/MWh) 0.004 0.003703704 0.002222222 0
eGRID 2018
(https://www.epa.gov/energy/emissions-
generation-resource-integrated-database-
egrid)
CAMX EF (lb CO2/MWh) 496.5 459.7222222 275.8333333 0
eGRID 2018
(https://www.epa.gov/energy/emissions-
generation-resource-integrated-database-
egrid)
EBCE First Tier EF (MTCO2e/kWh) 0.000046 4.56995E-05 0 0 EBEW GHG Inventory 2018 Direct Access (MTCO2e/kwh) 0.000204895 0.0002 0.000119403 0 EBEW GHG Inventory 2018 RPS Requirements
RPS Target Year 2018 2020 2030 2045
PG&E
Percent Renewable 27% 33% 60% 100%
Increase in Renewables (from 2018) 6% 33%
EBCE
Percent Renewable 41% 41% 100% 100%
Increase in Renewables (from 2018) 0% 59%
Direct Access
Percent Renewable 31% 33% 60% 100%
Increase in Renewables (from 2018) 2% 29%
Fuel Emission Factors
Fuel Emission Factor Unit Source

10.21 kg CO2/gal

0.9 g CH4/MMBTU

0.4 g N2O/MMBTU

0.05444 kg CO2/scf

0.9 g CH4/MMBTU

0.9 g N2O/MMBTU
Conversion Factors
Electricity Emission Factors
Diesel
Natural Gas
Climate Registry 2019
Default Emission Factors
GWP