Fremont City Council
June 9, 2026

STRATEGIC ECONOMICS | 2991 SHATTUCK AVE., STE 203, BERKELEY, CA. 94705 | 510.647.5291

MEMORANDUM
To: Marc Cleveland, Associate Planner, City of Fremont
From: Derek W. Braun, Principal
Malia Wing, Associate
Date: January 8, 2026
Project: Fremont Osgood Road General Plan Amendment Economic Analysis Subject: Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PURPOSE AND SITE CONTEXT
The City of Fremont retained Strategic Economics to conduct a market assessment and an analysis of the fiscal and economic benefits associated with a proposed development project at 43800 Osgood Road, with the analysis including:

1. The market potential to attract a retail tenant to the site, as currently allowed under the site’s zoning and General Plan land use designation;

2. The market potential for development of industrial uses through conversion of the extant retail building, including the likely types of tenants that would locate at the site;

3. The economic and City fiscal benefits associated with the Sterling Organization’s proposed conversion of the extant building to industrial uses consisting of 149,795 square feet of industrial space and ancillary office uses allowable under the City of Fremont’s “Tech Industrial” zoning designation.

The “Subject Site” consists of 11.2 acres and includes a 143,795 “big box” retail building.

The Subject Site owner, Sterling Organization , is proposing renovations to the existing structure, resulting in 6,000 additional square feet of ancillary office space at a mezzanine level, and conversion of the existing space to industrial use . The proposed project would ultimately result in a 149,795 square foot industrial building, including 12,000 square feet of ancillary office use.

The proposed development project requires a zoning amendment. Sterling Organization is therefore also requesting that the City of Fremont amend the site’s General Plan land use and zoning to Tech Industrial from its current designation as Regional Commercial . The Tech Industrial land use designation is primarily intended to create space for “research and development activities, ‘clean and Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 2 green’ tech, and semi -conductor, computer hardware, software and related technological, administrative, sales, and engineering facilities.” 1

MARKET AND DEVELOPMENT VIABILITY ASSESSMENT
Although existing shopping centers are generally performing well in Fremont, multiple significant barriers exist for retail development at the Subject Site:
• The rise of e-commerce is leading to a reduction in the square feet of retail space required per household, a trend reflected in declining square feet of space per household in Fremont, surrounding communities, and in Alameda County . Instea d, trends favor reinvestment at existing retail centers, including incorporation of non -retail uses such as housing—often by reducing existing retail space . This trend in Fremont is exemplified by the re development proposal replacing some retail space with a mixed-use residential project at the Fremont Hub shopping center.

• A future large, regionally oriented shopping center or big box store at the Subject Site would need to compete with a substantial existing supply of retail serving customers from within the same regional trade area, further limiting the likelihood of a developer pursuing a regional retail destination at the Subject Site.

• The Subject Site is also unlikely to attract demand for smaller, local -serving retail uses allowable under the current zoning . New housing development in the Warm Springs/South Fremont Community Plan area is adding a substantial number of new households within one mile of the Subject Site that will also generate demand for local retail (e.g., groceries, personal services, dining). However, these new housing units will not substantially improve prospects for adding retail at the Subject Site since the Community Plan also accommodates up to 45,000 square feet of complementary retail uses to serve the new households.

• While the Subject Site itself does feature positive attributes as a retail location, including access to I-880, I -680, and Auto Mall Parkway , the site is not directly adjacent to nearby complementary retail uses, and is surrounded by predominantly industrial uses. The site also lacks visibility and direct access to the heavily trafficked Auto Mall Parkway.

• Opportunities to reuse the existing building for retail uses are further constrained by the limited number and types of “big box” tenants that could occupy such a large space and the likely high costs of demising the space for occupancy by multiple tenants.

Demand for industrial space is strong in Fremont, including advanced manufacturing and warehouse and distribution uses. Fremont is especially well positioned to attract advanced manufacturing tenants due to the city’s direct access to Silicon Valley businesses via the Dumbarton Bridge and the city’s access to a workforce with a diverse range of education and specialized ski lls. Fremont’s ongoing ability to attract advanced manufacturing uses is demonstrated by recent tenanting trends. Fremont remains a competitive location for attracting warehouse and distribution uses as well, although the city has fewer competitive advantages for attracting those uses compared to advanced manufacturing.

1 City of Fremont General Plan, December 2011 and Fremont Municipal Code, Chapter 18.50.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 3 New industrial space at the Subject Site would be well-positioned to attract a diverse set of businesses, including businesses engaged in advanced manufacturing, and warehouse and distribution activities.

The Subject Site provides excellent regional access for commutes and goods movement and is adjacent to existing compatible industrial uses . The development project proposes a building sized appropriately to meet current demand from businesses seeking space, as demonstrated through recent major lease signings and input from local brokers.

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND FISCAL BENEFITS OF PROPOSED INDUSTRIAL USE The proposed industrial development project is estimated to provide between $66,000 and $68,000 in required one-time impact fees to mitigate the project’s impacts, as shown in Figure 1. The City of Fremont imposes impact fees to ensure development projects mitigate their own impacts on the City’s capital facilities, fire facilities, traffic, and affordable housing needs. Figure 1 shows the estimated range of the project’s required one-time impact fee payments based on whether the City charges fees to the project as a warehouse use or advanced manufacturing use.

FIGURE 1: ONE-TIME IMPACT FEE REVENUE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR CREDITS Impact Fee Source
Warehouse/Logistics
Tenant Manufacturing Tenant
Existing
Space
Office
Addition
Existing
Space
Office
Addition
Capital Facilities $0 $3,252 $2,588 $4,620
Fire Facilities $288 $2,688 $1,582 $2,742
Traffic $0 $24,966 $0 $21,228
Affordable Housing $0 $35,040 $0 $35,040
Total $288 $65,946 $4,170 $63,630
Total One-Time Impact Fee Revenue $66,234 $67,800
Note: The fee calculation included credits for Capital Facilities, Fire Facilities, and Traffic fees based on prior existing uses at the site.

Source: City of Fremont Fee Schedule, Effective September 16, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025

The City of Fremont is also estimated to receive between $123,760 to $132,877 in recurring annual revenue upon buildout and stabilized occupancy of the proposed industrial development project, depending on the type of tenant that occupies the space. This amount represents $ 1,308,765 to $1,402,069 over the following ten -year period (in 2025 dollars), as shown in Figure 2. The Fremont Unified School District would also receive nearly $1,100,000 in the same ten-year period.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 4 FIGURE 2: REVENUE, YEAR 1 OF BUILDOUT AND STABILIZED OCCUPANCY, AND TEN-YEAR REVENUE (2025 DOLLARS) Tax Revenue Source
Warehouse Tenant

Advanced Manufacturing Tenant
Year 1 Total, Years 1-10
(2025 Dollars) Year 1 Total, Years 1-10
(2025 Dollars)
Property Tax: All Jurisdictions $551,625 $5,198,621 $551,625 $5,198,621 Property Tax: Fremont Only $73,729 $694,839 $73,729 $694,839 Property Tax: Fremont Unified
School District Only $115,643 $1,089,838 $115,643 $1,089,838 Business Tax: Advanced Manufacturing N/A N/A $9,247 $94,634 Business Tax: Warehouse $130 $1,330 N/A N/A
Sales Tax $49,901 $612,596 $49,901 $612,596
Total Annual Revenue, Fremont Only $123,760 $1,308,765 $132,877 $1,402,069 Total One-Time Impact Fee Revenue $66,234 $67,800
Source: Strategic Economics, 2025.

Strategic Economics estimated that approximately 333 jobs would be associated with the Subject Site if an advanced manufacturing tenant occupies the space, or approximately 150 jobs if a warehouse/logistics tenant occupies that space. The proposed zoning of Tech Industrial allows warehouse/logistics uses and advanced manufacturing uses. The Subject Site’s location and building plans could be adapted for either use, so Strategic Economics analyzed two scenarios: one in which the building is used for advanced manufacturing, and one in which the building is used for warehouse/logistics. Actual job counts will depend on the tenant that occupies the proposed building.

The development applicant has expressed interest in targeting advanced manufacturing tenants and is primarily designing the building to attract such tenants.

Strategic Economics’ analysis showed that the development proposal for the site could accommodate a diverse mix of jobs by occupatio n, depending on the building’s use. A warehouse/logistics tenant would be associated with a significant share of jobs in transportation and material moving occupations. An advanced manufacturing tenant would be associated with a significant share of jobs in production and computer and mathematical occupations. Potential new jobs at the Subject Site would also be associated with a diverse range of average annual wages, with overall average wages higher for jobs in advanced manufacturing than in warehouse /logistics uses. Entry-level education requirements for jobs would vary significantly depending on the use.

Businesses and workers located in the industrial development project would also support additional unsecured property tax revenue, worker spending at adjacent businesses , and sales tax reven ues associated with that spending. Although Strategic Economics did not quantify these revenues, the on- site workers would support additional spending at the nearby Walmart and other businesses close to the site. This spending would generate additional sales tax revenue for the City of Fremont. The City of Fremont would also receive additional unsecured property tax revenue based on the assessed value of business equipment, fixtures, and furniture.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 5 INTRODUCTION
The City of Fremont retained Strategic Economics to conduct a market assessment and an analysis of the fiscal and economic benefits associated with a proposed development project at 43800 Osgood Road. Specifically, Strategic Economics examined:

4. The market potential to attract a retail tenant to the site, as currently allowed under the site’s zoning and General Plan land use designation;

5. The market potential for development of industrial uses through conversion of the extant building, including the likely types of tenants that would locate at the site;

6. The economic and City fiscal benefits associated with the Sterling Organization’s proposed conversion of the extant building to industrial uses , consisting of 149,795 square feet of industrial space and ancillary office uses that would be allowable under the City of Fremont’s “Tech Industrial” zoning designation.

Strategic Economics prepar ed this memo’s findings and conclusions to help inform the City of Fremont’s decisions regarding whether to allow the proposed changes to the site’s existing land use and zoning.

SITE INFORMATION
The “Subject Site” consists of 11.21 acres and is located immediately west of Interstate 680 and north of Auto Mall Parkway along Osgood Road.2 The Subject Site has two entrances along Osgood Road.

The General Plan currently designates the Subject Site’s land use as Regional Commercial. The General Plan specifies that “Regional Commercial areas include large-scale commercial uses serving a citywide or regional market, typically on large sites along freeways or major arterials.”3 In 1997, the Subject Site’s existing structure was built for warehouse industrial use. In 1998, the previous occupant, Fry Electronics, received approval for retail use of the property. Despite the current commercial zoning, the industrial character of the immediately surrounding area has remained intact with many adjacent industrial uses and some commercial properties nearby.

REQUESTED LAND USE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL
Sterling Organization is requesting approvals for a proposed one -building industrial development project at the Subject Site that is approximately 149,795 square feet, including a rezoning, discretionary design review, and tree removal permit. The project reuses the existing building and would add 6,000 square feet of ancillary office space as part of a mezzanine level within the existing building. The proposed development project consists of the uses described in Figure 3.

2 Based on architectural plans provided by the City of Fremont, the overall site consists of Alameda County assessor parcel numbers 513- 701-17 and 513-701-18.

3 City of Fremont General Plan, December 2011.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 6 FIGURE 3: BUSINESS ACTIVITY ASSUMPTIONS APPLIED IN THE ECONOMIC AND FISCAL ANALYSIS Use Square Feet
Industrial: Either Warehouse or Manufacturing 137,795
Ancillary Office Use (including new mezzanine) 12,000
Total Warehouse or Manufacturing 149,795
Source: Architectural plans authored by HPA Architecture, provided by the City of Fremont, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

A variety of tenants could potentially use the building for diverse manufacturing, warehouse, and distribution activities , as has occurred in similar development projects in Fremont. Strategic Economics evaluated the proposed development based on two potential industrial uses: advanced manufacturing and warehouse/logistics.

Sterling Organization is also requesting that the City of Fremont amend the s ite’s General Plan land use and zoning to Tech Industrial from its current designation as Regional Commercial . The Tech Industrial land use designation is primarily intended to create space f or “research and development activities, ‘clean and green ’ tech, and semi -conductor, computer hardware, software and related technological, administrative, sales, and engineering facilities .” Within this land use type, manufacturing and researc h activities necessitating the use of certain hazardous materials are permitted, though regulated to minimize the possibility of off -site impacts. This characteristic is common within the Tech Industrial land use and corresponding I-T zoning district. Due to the allowable use of hazardous materials within Tech Industrial, only nonsensitive assembly, business service, and nonsensitive recreational uses are allowed in this land use.4

MEMO ORGANIZATION
The remainder of this memo consists of the following sections:

1. Market and Development Viability Assessment : Provides detailed analysis and findings regarding the Subject Site’s market potential for retail and industrial development

2. Potential Economic and City Fiscal Benefits of Proposed Industrial Use : Describes the likely economic and City fiscal benefits associated with development of the site as proposed by Sterling Organization . This section present s the potential benefits separately under two scenarios. Scenario 1 assum es that all the space is used for warehouse and logistics, and Scenario 2 assumes that all the space is used for advanced manufacturing.

4 City of Fremont General Plan, December 2011 and Fremont Municipal Code, Chapter 18.50.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 7 MARKET AND DEVELOPMENT VIABILITY ASSESSMENT
The ability of the Subject Site to contribute economic and fiscal benefits for the City of Fremont will first depend on achieving buildout and on the types of tenants that then occupy that project. Strategic Economics examined market conditions and trends to identify the Subject Site’s likelihood of succeeding as a retail development project versus an industrial development project. Strategic Economics also assessed the likely types of tenants that would occupy an industrial project at the site, based on Fr emont’s market position within the Bay Area and recent development activity and tenanting trends.

Retail Market and Development Assessment
Strategic Economics assessed retail market conditions and trends to gauge the viability of the Subject Site for retail use. As with any development project, the success of a new shopping center depends on the ability of the site to attract and retain tenants capable of reliably paying sufficient rents to cover operating costs and the costs of land acquisition, financing, and construction. The market assessment focused on broader shifts in the retail marketplace due to the growth of e -commerce uses , the competitive retail supply currently serving the site, and site-specific characteristics that affect the site’s potential to succeed as a retail location that attracts customers from a citywide or regional trade area.

BROADER RETAIL TRENDS IMPACTING DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AT THE SUBJECT SITE At the most basic level, growth in demand for additional retail space within a given “trade area” served by a shopping center is primarily driven by increases in spending power due to growth in additional households. This pattern explains the first major wave of shopping center development in Fremont and neighboring communities as their populations rapidly grew between 1960 and 1990. The retail industry has typically responded to any first wave of new development by building new shopping centers of various shapes and sizes depending on the population size and other existing competition already in the trade area.

Development of new shopping centers was also historically driven by evolution of the retail industry itself, as developers created new store and shopping center formats in response to changing demographic patterns, changing availability of consumer goods, and various profitability models for both retailers and real estate developers. In broad terms, this pattern can be viewed as a contin uum going from the invention of department stores in the late 19th century, to shopping centers in the early 1920s, to sho pping malls in the 1950s, to the big box centers of the 1990s, etc. For many years, changing retail trends drove construction of new shopping centers or projects as much as new consumer demand did. In some cases, new shopping centers would merely capture demand from an existing shopping district or center, sometimes leaving the older facility largely vacant.

Today, the internet is the primary transformational force affecting the retail industry. E-commerce now accounts for approximately 16 percent of total retail sales in the United States, and the overall demand for retail space in both existing and new retail areas is starting to declin e.5 In addition, because the retail development industry kept building new format shopping centers without necessarily closing older centers, total retail space inventory is widely considered to be overbuilt within the commercial real estate industry.

5 Quarterly E-Commerce Sales Report, United States Census Bureau, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 8 As a result of these converging trends, retail expansion in brick -and-mortar space is happening in limited and specific locations that offer extraordinary household growth or access to households, and many existing retail centers are contracting in size. Former retail spaces are being used for many non- retail uses including office space, gyms, medical facilities, and housing. Moreover, even successful shopping malls are seeking to diversify their land use mix to include new uses such as housing, offices, hotels, and a wider range of dining options, as is occurring at the Fremont Hub shopping center and at the former Vallco Shopping Mall in Cupertino.

The most significant growth in retail activity in recent years is in a category commonly referred to as experiential retail. This trend reflects the consumer preferences of younger households who tend to spend less money on goods and more money on “experiences” including personal services, restaurants, drinking establishments, and recreation and entertainment. But places that cater to this experiential retail also require having the right kind of physical environment: a place that is lively and pedestrian-oriented so people can park their cars and walk to their destinations.

These converging retail industry trends are playing out at the local level in Fremont, suggesting ongoing challenges for adding retail space and supporting development of new shopping centers:
• Total s quare feet of retail space per household is declining in Fremont and neighboring communities: Based on retail inventory data from CoStar and household data from the U.S.

Census, the square feet of retail space per household in Fremont declined from 116 to 114 between 2019 and 2023 (Figure 4). Of the cities examined, retail inventory declined from 250 to 231 square feet per household in Newark, while Union City and Milpitas held steady at 99 and 207 square feet per household , respectively. Within the combined area of Fremont, Milpitas, Newark, and Union City —which better represents a larger trade are a that would be served by a regional retail center at the Subject Site—square feet per household declined from 144 to 141 over the same period. Within Alameda and Santa Clara counties combined, square feet per household declined from 126 to 125 square feet per household . Although this is a relatively short time period , the trends in declining or stagnant retail space per household consistently occurred across all geographies.

FIGURE 3: CHANGE IN RETAIL INVENTORY (SQUARE FEET) PER HOUSEHOLD, 2019 TO 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Fremont 116 115 115 114 114
Newark 250 250 250 231 231
Union City 99 99 99 99 99
Milpitas 207 207 207 207 207
Total Cities 144 144 144 141 141
Alameda County 127 127 127 126 126
Santa Clara County 118 118 118 118 118
Total Counties 126 126 126 125 125
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 2019-2023; Costar, 2024; Strategic Economics, 2025. • Reinvestment at shopping centers near Fremont includes additions of non-retail uses rather than continuation of retail use: Recent reinvestment activity at shopping centers in and near Fremont demonstrates the retail industry’s response to declining demand per household through conversion of space to other uses, including placement of additional housing and jobs at shopping centers to provide additional local demand for the remaining retail space. For example, the owner s of Fremont Hub shopping center (approximately four miles from the Subject Site) are pursuing a partial redevelopment of the site with 303 housing units and over Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 9 28,000 square feet of updated retail space that will replace 70,000 square feet of existing retail space.

COMPETITIVE RETAIL SUPPLY
Development and tenanting of a new shopping center at the Subject Site will require competing for demand against the existing supply of shopping centers serving customers from within the same trade area. Large shopping centers, such as regional malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, and community centers, serve a large trade area by drawing customers from within three miles or beyond. A range of retail centers exists within Fremont and along the I -880 corridor, each serving a unique trade area.

The retail center categories are described in more detail below and summarized in Figure 5.

Figure 6 shows the locations of power centers, community centers, and neighborhood centers located within approximately three miles of the Subject Site. Definitions of these shopping center types follow:
• Regional and super regional malls are enclosed shopping malls that include large anchor stores such as Macy’s. Regional malls typically consist of at least 400,000 square feet of space and serve a trade area of approximately five to 15 miles. Malls near the Subject Site include NewPark Mall in Newark and the Great Mall in Milpitas.
• Power centers (often known as “big box” centers) are characterized by several large anchor stores, such as discount department stores, and are usually between 250,000 to 600,000 square feet. Examples near the Subject Site include Pacific Commons about two miles away, the Fremont Hub, and McCarthy Ranch Marketplace in Milpita s. The trade area for a power center is typically between five to 10 miles.
• Community centers typically serve trade areas of between three and six miles and are often anchored by grocery stores or “big box” stores. These centers are usually between 125,000 to 400,000 square feet in size. Examples near the Subject Site include Fremont Times Square less than three miles south of the Subject Site, and the Walmart and Home Depot southwest of the Subject Site.
• Neighborhood centers typically serve trade areas of three or fewer miles and consist of 30,000 to 125,000 square feet. These centers are typically anchored by a grocery store and consist of convenience retail serving the day -to-day needs of nearby residents, such as dry cleaning, pharmacies, etc.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 10 FIGURE 4. TYPICAL U.S. SHOPPING CENTER TYPES AND CHARACTERISTICS Type of
Shopping Center
Typical
Size (sf)
Acres Typical Anchors Trade Area
Size/
Drive-time
Examples
Regional and
Super Regional
Malls
400,000 to
800,000
40 to
100
General merchandise or fashion-
oriented anchors, may include
department stores, mass
merchants, and/or fashion apparel
5-15 miles/
15-20
minutes
NewPark Mall
(Newark), Great
Mall (Milpitas)
Power Centers 250,000 to
600,000
25 to
80 Category-dominant anchors, often
in more than one freestanding
structures, with only a few small
tenants
5-10 miles/
15-20
minutes
Pacific Commons,
Fremont Hub,
McCarthy Ranch
Marketplace
(Milpitas)
Community
Center
125,000 to
400,000
10 to
40 General merchandise or
convenience-oriented anchors,
may include discount stores,
grocery stores, drug stores, and/or
large specialty stores (home
improvement/ furnishings, sporting
goods, etc.)
3-6 miles/
10-15
minutes
Walmart, Home
Depot, Fremont
Times Square

Neighborhood
Center
30,000 to
125,000
3 to 5 Convenience-oriented, typically
anchored by a grocery and/or drug
store
3 miles/
5-10
minutes
Warm Springs
Plaza
Source: International Council of Shopping Centers, January 2017; CoStar, January 2017; Strategic Economics 2024.

The Subject Site ’s surrounding trade area is already well served by existing regional retail and therefore not well-positioned to attract a new regional shopping center or destination, as envisioned by the existing Regional Commercial land use designation. As shown in Figure 6, the Subject Site is already well-served by regional retail destination s, including The Hub and Pacific Commons, both of which feature comparable freeway access and visibility. The Subject Site’s large square footage also poses a challenge as brokers interviewed for this study noted that the cost to demise the property into smaller and more easily leasable spaces would be hig h, yet there are also a very limited number of retail uses and/or types of tenants that could occupy the entire space. Brokers interviewed for this study indicated that examples of such tenants include indoor recreation uses such as go-karts, indoor trampoline facilities, or pickleball.

The Subject Site is also not well positioned to attract local-serving retail uses, given the existing supply of retail space meeting these needs. As shown in Figure 6, multiple “neighborhood centers” and “community centers” exist within the three -mile radius of the Subject Site. These centers already include a range of grocery store anchors targeting different demographic segments, including FoodMaxx, Grocery Outlet, Trader Joe’s, Lucky, Safeway, and Whole Foods as well as big -box stores such as Walmart.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 11 FIGURE 5: ALL RETAIL SHOPPING CENTERS LOCATED ADJACENT TO SUBJECT SITE

RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS
Although broader retail trends and the existing supply of space serving the Subject Site suggest challenges for developing a new shopping center or attracting a single large tenant at the Subject Site, Strategic Economics also examined local real estate market data to assess the strength of overall demand for new retail space.

Existing retail space in and near Fremont performs well, but inventory growth and absorption of space have been relatively slow over the past decade. As shown in Figure 7, overall retail vacancy rates in Fremont have held stable at a healthy three to five percent since 2011, including during the COVID- 19 pandemic. Overall retail rents also rose during that period as shown in Figure 8. Retail inventory has not significantly grown in Fremont since 2014 due to a lack of developers pursuing and completing new projects, and there was a decline in inventory in 2017 that has not been replaced —potentially indicating a “right-sizing” of inventory in response to reduced demand for traditional retail space (see Figure 9). The increase in retail space between 2011 and 2013 is largely attributable to The Block at Pacific Commons, and the decrease in retail space in 2017 is largely attributable to the demolition of the Connolly Center. Annual net absorption of retail space (space occupied minus space vacated) has been uneven, as shown in Figure 10 (although absorption was likely constrained by limited availability of vacant space).

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 12 FIGURE 6: FREMONT RETAIL VACANCY RATE, 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

FIGURE 7. FREMONT MONTHLY RETAIL RENT PER SQUARE FOOT (TRIPLE-NET BASIS), 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

FIGURE 8: FREMONT RETAIL INVENTORY (SQUARE FEET), 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Retail Vacancy Rate
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Rent per Square Foot
8,400,000
8,500,000
8,600,000
8,700,000
8,800,000
8,900,000
9,000,000
9,100,000
9,200,000
9,300,000
9,400,000
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Rent per Square Foot
Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 13 FIGURE 9: ANNUAL NET ABSORPTION OF RETAIL SPACE IN FREMONT (SQUARE FEET), 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

RETAIL SITE ASSESSMENT
While broader retail industry trends and local indicators suggest weak retail development potential at the Subject Site, site-specific location and physical characteristics also indicate how well the Subject Site could successfully function as a big box store or small shopping center. Retail tenants, especially retail tenants serving a large regional trade area, generally prefer sites with high visibility, locations with high automobile traffic volume, easy accessibility, and co-location with adjacent complementary tenants.

The Subject Site’s greatest strength as a potential shopping center consists of access via I-880, I-680, and Auto Mall Parkway. The Subject Site is accessible via these high automobile traffic routes and is located directly at the Auto Mall Parkway exit from I-680. The building can be seen directly from the freeway, providing an opportunity to install signage visible from the freeway. Existing nearby retail, including Walmart and Home Depot, drives customer traffic that could potentially also be attracted to retail at the Subject Site.

The Subject Site’s weaknesses as a potential shopping center include limited visibility from Auto Mall Parkway, inadequate connections from major thoroughfares, and limited immediate proximity to larger concentrations of complementary retail u ses. The Subject Site has limited visibility from Auto Mall Parkway due to a large setback, and the presence of the power transmission towers directly at the corner of Auto Mall Parkway and Osgood Road. The Subject Site also lacks direct access to Auto Mall Parkway. While there is some existing retail use on the opposite side of Auto Mall Parkway, this major thoroughfare separates the Subject Site from nearby retail. The site is otherwise adjacent to industrial uses along Osgood Road.

The Subject Site’s large existing building size limits the number and kinds of potential tenants and/or requires costly demising of the space for smaller tenants . The current s tructure is approximately 143,000 square feet—too large for most retailers besides “big box” store chains that are already well- represented in the surrounding trade area, such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot . Brokers interviewed indicated that uses such as indoor recreation could be suitable for the Subject Site, but the number of possible tenants would be small given the size of the building and site . While the site could potentially be split into several smaller leasable spaces, this process would be costly and require (400,000)
(300,000)
(200,000)
(100,000)
0 100,000
200,000
300,000
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Absorption Square Feet
Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 14 extensive reworking of the property to accommodate an appropriate mix of an anchor tenant and smaller tenants.

The Subject Site is not well suited to serve the existing and planned residential populations with local- serving retail. There is not a large concentration of residents immediately surrounding the site, as shown in Figure 10. The nearest concentrations of residents are separated from the Subject Site by an active railroad to the west, and I -680 to the east. Residential growth at the nearby Warm Springs/South Fremont area is drawing more residents within .5 to 1-mile of the Subject Site, but these residents’ retail needs are likely to largely be met by the planned retail within the same neighborhood.

FIGURE 10. POPULATION DENSITY VERSUS SUBJECT SITE AND EXISTING RETAIL LOCATIONS

SUMMARY OF KEY RETAIL CONCLUSIONS
Although existing shopping centers are generally performing well in Fremont, multiple significant challenges exist for retail development at the Subject Site:
• The rise of e-commerce is leading to a reduction in the square feet of retail space required per household, a trend reflected in declining square feet of space per household in Fremont and stagnant or declining square feet of space per household in surrounding communities and Alameda and Santa Clara Counties overall. Instead, trends favor reinvestment at existing retail centers, including incorporation of non -retail uses through strategic “pruning” of existing underperforming retail space.

• A future shopping center at the Subject Site would need to compete with a substantial existing supply of existing retail that serves customers within the same regional and local trade areas.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 15 • While the Subject Site itself does feature positive attributes as a retail location, including access to I-880, I-680, and Auto Mall Parkway, the site is not immediately adjacent to nearby complementary retail uses, and is surrounded by largely industrial uses. The site also lacks visibility and direct access to the heavily trafficked Auto Mall Parkway.

• Opportunities to reuse the existing building for retail uses are further constrained by the limited number and types of “big box” tenants that could occupy such a large space and the likely high costs of demising the space for occupancy by multiple tenants.

Industrial Market and Development Assessment
The drivers of demand for an industrial development project differ from drivers of demand for a retail project. While a successful retail project depends on the ability to capture sufficient customer sales from within a competitive trade area, the success of an industrial development project relies on capturing demand from businesses seekin g a preferred combination of access to their workforce, building/site configuration, power and other utilities, and/or ease of goods movement for the business inputs and outputs. The following findings assess potential industrial development and tenanting opportunities at the Subject Site based on market indicators of demand for new industrial space in Fremont and based on the factors that attract specific types of industrial tenants to Fremont.

INDUSTRIAL MARKET CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY IN FREMONT Industrial space continues to be highly desirable in Fremont, despite some softening of market indicators in the past two years. As with much of the East Bay industrial market, demand for industrial space—and warehouse space in particular for e-commerce logistics use— dramatically increased in Fremont from 2020 to 2021. During that period, vacancy rates rapidly declined as space was absorbed and rents increased, as shown in Figure 12, Figure 13, and Figure 14. Vacancy rates increased, absorption slowed, and average asking rents slightly declined in Fremont since approximately 202 2, but market indicators indicate strong demand overall —especially for manufacturing space.

FIGURE 11: FREMONT INDUSTRIAL INVENTORY, VACANCY RATES, AND RENTS, JUNE 2025 Building Type Inventory (sq. ft) Vacancy Rate (%) Asking Rent (Monthly, NNN) Manufacturing 11,385,655 6.20% $1.66
Warehouse 15,439,991 7.80% $1.59
Source: Costar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 16 FIGURE 12: VACANCY RATES BY SUB-CATEGORIES OF INDUSTRIAL SPACE, FREMONT, 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

FIGURE 13: ABSORPTION TRENDS BY SUB-CATEGORIES OF INDUSTRIAL SPACE, FREMONT, 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

FIGURE 14: AVERAGE EFFECTIVE RENTS BY SUB-CATEGORIES OF INDUSTRIAL SPACE, FREMONT, 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Note: Rents displayed on a triple-net basis.

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Vacancy Rate
Manufacturing Warehouse
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
0 500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Net Absorption
Manufacturing Warehouse
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Triple-Net Rent
Manufacturing Warehouse
Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 17 Industrial d evelopment activity and interest are also strong in Fremont, with growth in building inventory and multiple development proposals for additional industrial space. Due to delivery of new industrial development projects, the inventory of industrial space in Fremont grew by 4.3 million square feet, or about 15 percent, from 2015 to 2025. The manufacturing inventory in Fremont grew by approximately 600,000 square feet since 2024, representing a 5.7 percent increase in inventory.

Local brokers recently interviewed about the Fremont market verified that demand is exceptionally strong for industrial space in Fremont , particularly for advanced manufacturing . Several industrial developments are at various stages of planning and construction in Fremont, including a six-building project of over 450,000 square feet in Bayside Technology Park (currently under construction) and a three-building proposal of over 420,000 square feet in the Warm Springs Industrial Area.

FIGURE 15: CHANGE IN INDUSTRIAL INVENTORY BY SUB-CATEGORY OF SPACE, FREMONT, 2010 TO JUNE 2025

Source: CoStar, June 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

DRIVERS OF DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE IN FREMONT
Strategic Economics examined Fremont’s industrial market positioning and tenanting trends to assess the likely mix of tenants that would occupy new industrial space at the Subject Site, thereby indicating whether the space would be used for warehous e/logistics or advanced manufacturing activities. As with any community, Fremont offers a unique mix of assets and advantages that influence the types of industrial business tenants seeking space within the city.

Fremont—and to a lesser extent Newark and Milpitas —occupies a unique regional niche in the types of businesses seeking industrial space, with a focus on product prototyping and specialized electronics manufacturing. Local brokers interviewed for this project about the area’s industrial market noted that Fremont competes for industrial tenants within a market area consisting of Fremont, Newark, Hayward, Milpitas, and northern San Jose. However, Fremont was cited as the most desirable location for advanced manufacturing. Currently, AI server manufacturing is on the rise in Fremont , including businesses such as Quantum and MiTAC . Brokers also noted that there is continued interest in Fremont specifically for R&D and early-stage manufacturing related to electric vehicles and batteries.

Recent tenanting activity provide s further evidence of Fremont’s specialization in advanced manufacturing and ongoing attractiveness to these businesses, especially within the size range of the Subject Site development proposal. Leasing activity is similarly robust for warehouse and logistics spaces.
0 2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Inventory (Sq. Ft)
Manufacturing Warehouse
Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 18 • As shown in Figure 16, just under half of the leases signed for space s larger than 50,000 square feet in Fremont between July 2023 and July 2025 were for businesses in the technology/manufacturing sectors. The other half of the new leases were signed by warehouse and logistics users.

• The average size of leases signed by technology/manufacturing companies was approximately 110,000 square feet, similar to that of the subject site’s development proposal. While technology/manufacturing companies are responsible for about half of the new leases above 50,000 square feet in the past two years, each lease tends to be smaller in size than the warehouse/logistics leases.

FIGURE 16: MAJOR* NEW LEASES BY TENANT INDUSTRY IN FREMONT, 2023 AND 2024 Sector Number of Leases Mean Square Feet Total Square Feet Technology/Manufacturing 6 110,272 661,633
Warehouse/Logistics 7 168,124 1,176,866
Total 13 141,423 1,838,499
Note:
*Reflects leases for space larger than 50,000 square feet.

Source: Costar, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Fremont offers several competitive assets that support the city’s ongoing strength in attracting innovation-oriented advanced manufacturing businesses to the city’s industrial lands:
• Access to a workforce with diverse skills, education, and training: As seen below in Figure 17, Fremont’s location provides immediate access to the Bay Area’s highest concentrations of workers with advanced degrees, including in Fremont itself and in Silicon Valley communities across the Dumbarton Bridge. At the same time, Fremont enjoys equally stro ng access to a large population of workers to the east and north with a diverse range of education and specialized skills that are required for operating specialized production equipment. Broker interviews highlighted the importance of access to a pool of engineering talent for advanced manufacturing businesses. Brokers also identified the Subject Site location along Interstate 680 allows for access to employee bases along the 680 corridor, including potential employees living in Livermore and Pleasanton.

• Integration with Silicon Valley businesses via Dumbarton Bridge: The Dumbarton Bridge provides direct access to the Bay Area’s primary cluster of innovation -oriented technology businesses in Silicon Valley. The bridge essentially integrates Fremont within this innovation ecosystem, allowing Fremont to provide the “scale-up” space for manufacturing uses. Tesla is an example of this symbiotic relationship; the company’s primary corporate offices and former headquarters are in Palo Alto, while manufacturing occurs in Fremont.

• Availability of modern industrial buildings and industrial land: Fremont’s inventory of newer industrial buildings and industrial development opportunities better meet building configuration, access, and power needs of innovation-oriented tenants compared to the older building stock of communities such as San Leandro.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 19 • Efficient City permitting and approvals processes: Recently interviewed local brokers noted that Fremont also competes for innovation -oriented industrial tenants based on responsive, efficient, and easy to navigate permitting and approvals processes relative to neighboring communities. The City’s willingness to work with interested developers has contributed to Fremont’s growing reputation as a center for advanced manufacturing in the Bay Area.

FIGURE 17: CONCENTRATION OF POPULATION WITH ADVANCED DEGREES IN THE BAY AREA, 2022

Fremont also attracts demand for warehouse and distribution space based on proximity to households and businesses and the city’s location along major transportation corridors, although Fremont’s market positioning for these uses is weaker than nearby lower-cost areas. As shown in Figure 16, over half the square feet of major leases signed in Fremont in the past five years were for warehouse and distribution use. Fremont competes for warehouse and distribution tenants based on the city’s location along the I-880 corridor, including access to the Port of Oakland, and access to numerous businesses and residents. However, surrounding communities offer similar accessibility at potentially lower costs due to reduced competition with technology businesses for industrial space. Local brokers interviewed for this study indicated that last-mile logistics demand is likely softening in the Fremont market in the short-term (also reflected by recent negative net absorption for warehouse space shown in Figure 13) as e -commerce businesses reassess their immediate needs since expanding during the Covid -19 pandemic. Last-mile delivery and logistics is a potential use for the Subject Site, but brokers indicated that it is a less likely use than advanced manufacturing.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 20 SUBJECT SITE ASSESSMENT FOR INDUSTRIAL USE
An industrial development project at the Subject Site is likely to succeed in attracting tenants due to general demand for new modern industrial space within the development project’s size range , compatibility with surrounding uses , and transportation access for workers and materials. Local brokers noted that demand is especially strong for buildings between 100,000 and 200,000 square feet; the development proposal falls within this range. The proposed project’s size roughly corresponds to the average size of new manufacturing and warehouse leases larger than 50,000 square feet. The Subject Site also features excellent regional commute and goods movement access via I-680 and Auto Mall Parkway to I -880. Prospective tenant interest is also likely to be enhanced by the development project’s compatibility with existing adjacent industrial uses.

The Subject Site is well -positioned to attract advanced manufacturing tenants, as well as warehouse/logistics uses. The Subject Site’s location will allow it to function well for either use, suggesting that tenanting of new space at the site would follow recent p atterns that include warehouse/logistics or advanced manufacturing uses. Brokers interviewed for this study suggested that demand would be strongest from advanced manufacturing users due to the size of the space and the location within Fremont. Brokers suggested that other market area communities, such as Hayward, can better compete with Fremont for warehouse space while Fremont maintains a clear advantage for attracting businesses requiring advanced manufacturing space.

KEY INDUSTRIAL CONCLUSIONS
Demand for industrial space is strong in Fremont, including advanced manufacturing and warehouse/logistics uses. Fremont is especially well positioned to attract advanced manufacturing tenants due to the city’s direct access to Silicon Valley businesses via the Dumbarton Bridge and the city’s access to a workforce with a diverse range of education and specialized skills. Fremont’s ongoing ability to attract advanced manufacturing uses is demonstrated by recent tenanting trends. Fremont remains a competitive location for attracting warehouse and distribution uses as well, although the city has fewer competitive advantages for attracting those uses compared to advanced manufacturing.

New industrial space at the Subject Site would be well-positioned to attract a diverse set of businesses, including businesses engaged in advanced manufacturing, and warehouse /logistics activities. The Subject Site provides excellent regional access for commutes and goods movement and is adjacent to existing compatible industrial uses . The development project proposes a building sized appropriately to meet current demand from businesses seeking space, as demonstrated through recent major lease signings and input from local brokers.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 21 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND FISCAL BENEFITS OF PROPOSED

INDUSTRIAL USE
Strategic Economics assessed the likely economic and fiscal benefits associated with buildout of the industrial development proposal for the Subject Site. Based on the preceding analysis of likely tenant types that would occupy industrial space at the Subject Site, Strategic Economics assumed that either an advanced manufacturing tenant or a warehouse/logistics tenant might occupy the space. Because of this, Strategic Economics conducted the analysis with two scenarios: 1) all of the space is occupied by a warehouse /logistics tenant or 2) all of the space is occupied by an advanced manufacturing tenant (referred to as a “manufacturing” tenant). The results differ in terms of number of jobs produced, potential occupation mix, and estimated wages. Although t he project plans indicate the breakdown of space between industrial use and office as demonstrated below, both scenarios of the analysis were run as if all square footage is applicable to the industrial use. This method accounts for the fact that data sources that describe jobs by industry sector already include the entire range of occupations present at businesses in a given sector (including office and administration jobs) . The following sections present and compare the analysis results for the two scenarios.

FIGURE 18: BUSINESS ACTIVITY ASSUMPTIONS APPLIED IN THE ECONOMIC AND FISCAL ANALYSIS Use Square Feet
Industrial 137,795
Ancillary Office Use 12,000
Total: Analyzed as Warehouse/Logistics or Advanced
Manufacturing 149,795
Source: Architectural plans authored by HPA Architects, provided by the City of Fremont, 2025.

Employment and Workforce Opportunities
This section summarizes the wages, occupations, and entry-level educational requirements for jobs at businesses matching the warehouse and advanced manufacturing uses assumed to locate at the Subject Site. The results are based on recent data for the Oakland-Hayward -Berkeley Metropolitan Division. This section first presents a subsection of results assuming a warehouse /logistics tenant, followed by a subsection of results assuming an advanced manufacturing tenant.

The text box on the following page describes the methodology used for this analysis . Strategic Economics estimated workforce outcomes including the number of jobs, worker occupation mix, average worker incomes, and entry -level education requirements for new jobs at the subject site’s proposed development project.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 22 OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY
The employment and workforce analysis summarized in this memorandum ties land uses (manufacturing and warehouse/logistics) to industries in order to estimate the typical wages, occupational mix, and entry - level educational requirements of jobs associated with different land uses. This makes it possible to draw broad conclusions about the likely occupations and entry -level educational requirements of new jobs associated with the development proposal , based on patterns in the surrounding region. The data sources used and the steps followed for this analysis are described below.

Data sources. Findings were based on data provided by the California Economic Development Department (EDD) for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley Metropolitan Division (MD). Two main EDD data sources were used:
• Findings related to industries, wages, and occupations are based on the EDD Industry to Occupation Matrix for the first quarter of 2023.
• Findings related to entry -level educational requirements we re based on the EDD Occupation Projections dataset for 2022-2032. Note that the data on entry -level educational requirements by occupation may not always reflect what is required of new workers in a highly competitive job market such as the San Francisco Bay Area. Nonetheless, when summarized at a high -level, this data is helpful to assess the general education and skills required for different occupational categories.

Step 1. Define land use categories by industry groups. As a first step, the land uses assumed for the development proposal were defined based on the following industry groups, as categorized by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS):
• Manufacturing: Printing and Related Support Activities (323), Chemical Manufacturing (325), Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing (327), Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (332), Machinery Manufacturing (333), Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing (334), Electrical Equipment and Appliances (335), Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (336), Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing (337), Miscellaneous Manufacturing (339) , Computer Systems Design and Related Services (5415)
• Warehouse/Logistics: Wholesale Trade (42), Couriers and Messengers (492), Warehousing and Storage (493)
Step 2. Link industry groups to occupations and wages (MD level). Based on these industry group definitions, the Industry to Occupation Matrix dataset was used to associate each land use with an occupational mix, categorized using major Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes. This same dataset was also used to associate each land use to an average annual wage. In both cases, results obtained are reflective of the MD overall.

Step 3. Link occupations to entry -level educational requirements ( MD level). The occupational mix of each land use was then linked to the EDD Occupation Projections dataset in order to obtain the typical mix of educational levels required by major SOC Code. Again, these results are reflective of the MD overall.

Step 4. Apply the MD’s relative shares of occupations by land uses and educational requirements by land uses to the job estimates. The relative shares of occupations and educational requirements by land use derived from the MD datasets were applied to the number of jobs by land use for the overall development proposal. This made it possible to estimate the projected number of jobs by occupation and entry -level education required.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 23 Employment and Workforce Opportunities Assessment:

Warehouse/Logistics Tenant Scenario

ON-SITE JOBS
Based on general job density assumptions by land use, Strategic Economics estimated that approximately 150 jobs would be associated with the development proposal if occupied by a warehouse/logistics tenant. The job density assumptions and estimated new jobs are shown in Figure

19. FIGURE 19: EMPLOYMENT DENSITY ASSUMPTION AND ON-SITE JOBS Land Use Square Feet Sq. Ft. per Job
Assumption (a) New Jobs
Warehouse/Logistics 149,795 1,000 150
(a) The analysis applied generalized assumptions of ranges of jobs per square foot, based on Strategic Economics’ ongoing rev iew of available literature and past project experience. Actual outcomes will depend on the specific tenants that occupy any future industrial space at the site.

Source: Strategic Economics, 2025.

OCCUPATION MIX
The development proposal for the Subject Site would accommodate a diverse mix of jobs by occupation, with the greatest numbers of jobs in transportation and material moving occupations for a warehouse /logistics tenant. Figure 20 shows the breakdown of new jobs by occupation for a warehouse/logistics tenant at the Subject Site. Of the 150 jobs at the Subject Site, approximately 39 percent would consist of transportation and material moving occupations , 17 percent in sales and related occupations, and 13 percent in office and administrative support occupations. The remaining 31 percent of jobs would consist of jobs in a variety of occupations.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 24 FIGURE 20: PROJECTED NEW JOBS BY OCCUPATION FOR A WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS TENANT AT SUBJECT SITE Major Occupation Category Number of Jobs Percent of Jobs Management 13 8.6%
Business and Financial Operations 8 5.5%
Computer and Mathematical 4 2.6%
Architecture and Engineering 1 1.0%
Life, Physical, and Social Science 0 0.3%
Community and Social Service 0 0.0%
Legal 0 0.1%
Education, Training, and Library 0 0.0%
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 2 1.3%
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 0 0.3% Healthcare Support 0 0.0%
Protective Service 0 0.1%
Food Preparation and Serving 0 0.1%
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 1 0.3%
Personal Care and Service 0 0.0%
Sales and Related 25 16.6%
Office and Administrative Support 19 12.9%
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 1 0.6%
Construction and Extraction 1 0.4%
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 9 5.8%
Production 7 4.4%
Transportation, and Material Moving 58 39.1%
Note: Number of jobs are projected proportionally to the occupational mix of the MD. Occupation categories which have a stated number of jobs as zero have a small number of jobs within the MSA which, when estimated for this size development, constitute less than one job but which may still exist. Job counts do not sum to 150 due to rounding.

Source: California Economics Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD, Industry to Occupation Matrix for Q1 2023; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 25 AVERAGE INCOME
Potential new jobs at the Subject Site are also associated with a variety of average annual wages .

Figure 21 shows the average annual wages associated with the mix of occupations within each major occupation category. The overall average annual wage for warehouse /logistics occupations is $86,591 but has a range between $56,000 and $184,000 (based on 2023 data).

FIGURE 21: AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGES FOR OCCUPATIONS FOR WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS TENANT FOR THE SUBJECT SITE DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL, 2023
Major Occupation Category
Warehouse/Logistics
Share of Jobs Mean Annual Wage
Management 8.6% $184,070.09
Business and Financial Operations 5.5% $111,364.64
Computer and Mathematical 2.6% $141,043.61
Architecture and Engineering 1.0% $112,997.90
Life, Physical, and Social Science 0.3% $98,681.15
Community and Social Service 0.0% $66,293.00
Legal 0.1% $133,335.40
Education, Training, and Library 0.0% $66,849.67
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 1.3% $94,920.39 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 0.3% $86,727.38 Healthcare Support 0.0% $64,711.00
Protective Service 0.1% $72,594.40
Food Preparation and Serving 0.1% $56,041.08
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 0.3% $58,158.89 Personal Care and Service 0.0% $60,986.67
Sales and Related 16.6% $82,014.60
Office and Administrative Support 12.9% $67,888.48
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 0.6% $63,099.33 Construction and Extraction 0.4% $72,681.29
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 5.8% $76,757.58
Production 4.4% $64,059.13
Transportation, and Material Moving 39.1% $69,724.61
Calculated Total, All Occupations 100% $86,590.92
Notes:
(a) Land uses are defined based on the following NAICS industries: Wholesale Trade (42), Couriers and Messengers (492), Warehousing and Storage (493).
(b) Occupation categories which have a stated annual wage but zero percent share of jobs have a very small number of jobs that constitute less than one percent but which still exist within the industry.

Source: California Economic Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD, Industry to Occupation Matrix for Q1 2023; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 26 ENTRY-LEVEL EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS
Entry-level education requirements for warehouse/logistics jobs provide opportunities for workers at a variety of education levels. As shown in Figure 22, an estimated 18 percent of jobs in industries associated with a warehouse/logistics space would require a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 72 percent jobs in which a high school diploma or equivalent or no formal educational credential would be required.

FIGURE 22: ENTRY LEVEL EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS FOR JOBS ASSOCIATED WITH WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS USE

Source: California Economic Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD, Industry to Occupation Matrix for Q1 2023; California Economic Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD Occupation Projections for 2022-2032; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Employment and Workforce Opportunities Assessment:

Manufacturing Tenant Scenario

ON-SITE JOBS
Based on general job density assumptions by land use, Strategic Economics estimated that approximately 333 jobs would be associated with the development proposal if occupied by a manufacturing tenant. The job density assumptions and estimated new jobs are shown in Figure 23.

FIGURE 23: EMPLOYMENT DENSITY ASSUMPTION AND ON-SITE JOBS Land Use Square Feet Sq. Ft. per Job
Assumption (a) New Jobs
Manufacturing 149,795 450 333 (a) The analysis applied generalized assumptions of ranges of jobs per square foot, based on Strategic Economics’ ongoing rev iew of available literature and past project experience. Actual outcomes will depend on the specific tenants that occupy any future industrial space at the site.

Source: Strategic Economics, 2025.

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jobs Associated with Warehouse and Logisitics
Doctoral or professional
degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college, no degree
Postsecondary non-degree
award
High school diploma or
equivalent
No formal educational
credential
Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 27 OCCUPATION MIX
The development proposal for the Subject Site would accommodate a diverse mix of jobs by occupation, with the greatest numbers of jobs in production for a manufacturing tenant. Figure 24 shows the breakdown of new jobs by occupation for a manufacturing tenant at the Subject Site. Of the 333 jobs at the Subject Site, approximately 34 percent would consist of production occupations, 15 percent in computer and mathematical operations, 10 percent in management occupations, and nine percent in business and financial operations The remaining approximately 31 percent of jobs would consist of jobs in a variety of occupations.

FIGURE 24: PROJECTED NEW JOBS BY OCCUPATION FOR MANUFACTURING TENANT FOR THE SUBJECT SITE

DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL

Major Occupation Category Number of Jobs Percent of Jobs Management 33 9.8%
Business and Financial Operations 31 9.4%
Computer and Mathematical 51 15.4%
Architecture and Engineering 28 8.5%
Life, Physical, and Social Science 2 0.5%
Legal 1 0.2%
Education, Training, and Library 0 0.0%
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 2 0.7%
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 0 0.0% Healthcare Support 0 0.0%
Protective Service 0 0.1%
Food Preparation and Serving 0 0.0%
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 1 0.2%
Personal Care and Service 0 0.0%
Sales and Related 14 4.2%
Office and Administrative Support 24 7.2%
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 0 0.0%
Construction and Extraction 5 1.5%
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 14 4.1%
Production 113 34.1%
Transportation, and Material Moving 14 4.3%
Note: Number of jobs are projected proportionally to the occupational mix of the MSA. Occupation categories which have a stat ed number of jobs as zero have a small number of jobs within the MSA which, when estimated for this size development, constitute less than one job but which may still exist.

Source: California Economic Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD, Industry to Occupation Matrix for Q1 2023; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 28 AVERAGE INCOME
Potential new manufacturing jobs at the Subject Site are also associated with a variety of average annual wages. Figure 25 shows the average annual wages associated with the mix of occupations within each major occupation category. The overall average annual wage for advanced manufacturing occupations is $92,564 but has a range between $46,000 and $185,000 (based on 2023 data).

FIGURE 25: AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGES FOR OCCUPATIONS FOR MANUFACTURING TENANT FOR THE SUBJECT SITE DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL, 2023

Major Occupation Category
Manufacturing
Share of Jobs Mean Annual Wage
Management 9.8% $185,123.38
Business and Financial Operations 9.4% $116,807.12
Computer and Mathematical 15.4% $141,660.95
Architecture and Engineering 8.5% $130,764.66
Life, Physical, and Social Science 0.5% $109,627.63
Legal 0.2% $122,472.80
Education, Training, and Library 0.0% $80,008.67
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 0.7% $111,265.56 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 0.0% $131,604.75 Healthcare Support 0.0% $64,697.00
Protective Service 0.1% $80,165.20
Food Preparation and Serving 0.0% $49,969.00
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 0.2% $60,519.67 Personal Care and Service 0.0% $45,570.00
Sales and Related 4.2% $90,195.94
Office and Administrative Support 7.2% $68,488.24
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 0.0% $47,914.00 Construction and Extraction 1.5% $84,649.83
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 4.1% $83,925.97
Production 34.1% $64,632.56
Transportation, and Material Moving 4.3% $73,771.50
Calculated Total, All Occupations 100% $92,563.54
Notes:
(a) Land uses are defined based on the following NAICS industries: Computer Systems Design and Related Services (5415), Printing and Related Support Activities (323), Chemical Manufacturing (325), Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing (327), Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (332), Machinery Manufacturing (333), Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing (334), Electrical Equipment and Appliances (335), Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (336), Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing (337), Miscellaneous Manufacturing (339). (b) Occupation categories which have a stated annual wage but zero percent share of jobs have a very small number of jobs that constitute less than one percent but which still exist within the industry.

Source: California Economic Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD, Industry to Occupation Matrix for Q1 2023; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 29 ENTRY-LEVEL EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS
Entry-level education requirements for manufacturing jobs provide opportunities for workers at a variety of education levels but are overall skewed towards workers with a college degree. As shown in Figure 26, an estimated 40 percent of jobs at a manufacturing tenant would require a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 55 percent of jobs in which a high school diploma or equivalent or no formal educational credential would be required.

FIGURE 26: ENTRY LEVEL EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS FOR MANUFACTURING USE

Source: California Economic Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD, Industry to Occupation Matrix for Q1 2023; California Economic Development Department for the Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley MD Occupation Projections for 2022-2032; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Employment and Workforce Opportunities Assessment: Comparison of Uses
Fewer jobs would be associated with warehouse use than a manufacturing use. The warehouse/logistics tenant was estimated to provide 150 jobs compared to 333 from manufacturing.

This is due to the generally lower density of workers associated with warehouse uses. Actual job counts will vary depending on the actual tenants and their operations.

Average worker wages are higher for the manufacturing use. Warehouse/logistics uses have a n estimated average wage of $ 87,000, while manufacturing exceeds this with a n estimated average wage of $ 93,000 (as of 2023) . Manufacturing uses also have a higher maximum wage range than warehouse/logistics uses. Both uses provide for a diverse mix of jobs with a large range of estimated wages.

Entry-level education requirements for jobs vary significantly by land use, with warehouse/logistics jobs providing the greatest diversity of opportunities for workers at a variety of education levels. While both potential uses provide a range of opportunities available at varying educational levels, the projected jobs associated with a manufacturing use include a much higher percentage of jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jobs Associated with Manufacturing
Doctoral or professional
degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college, no degree
Postsecondary non-degree
award
High school diploma or
equivalent
No formal educational
credential
Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 30 Fiscal Contributions to the City of Fremont
Strategic Economics estimated public gross revenues associated with the Subject Site ’s proposed industrial development project at the Subject Site. Estimated annual recurring revenues include d property tax (accruing both to Fremont and other applicable tax jurisdictions), sales tax, and business license tax. The analysis estimated these revenues for a single year upon full buildout and stabilized occupancy of the development project, as well as a ten -year projection of these revenues. Strategic Economics also estimated one-time impact fee revenue with assistance from the City of Fremont. All dollar amounts are expressed in 2025 dollars unless stated otherwise. Strategic Economics assumed that either a warehouse /logistics tenant or an advanced manufacturing (referred to as “manufacturing”) tenant could occupy the space. Due to differences in estimated workers, wages, and fees associated with these use types, the analysis was conducted using two scenarios. The following section presents the results first by scenario 1: all square footage is occupied by a warehouse/logistics tenant, followed by the results for scenario 2: all square footage is occupied by a manufacturing tenant.

Fiscal Contributions: Warehouse/Logistics Tenant

SECURED PROPERTY TAX
The proposed industrial development project at the Subject Site was estimated to generate approximately $551,625 in annual secured property tax revenue, with the City of Fremont receiving $73,729 of this revenue and the Fremont Unified School District receiving approximately $115,623 of this revenue. The distribution of this property tax is shown in Figure 27. This property tax revenue reflects revenue based on the assessed value of “secured” property ( i.e., the value of land , existing building, and improvements). The City of Fremont would also receive additional unsecured property tax revenue levied on the value of property such as business fixtures and equipment; unsecured property tax revenue could vary widely depending on the types of businesses that locate at the Subject Site, but these revenues could be significant for some businesses. If the industrial development project does not move forward and the site instead remains as -is, the City of Fremont would receive a lower level of property tax revenue, based on the assessed value of the existing commercial building and land. The following assumptions were incorporated in the analysis:
• The analysis assumed an assessed value of the property at $325 per square foot of building area. This valuation was based on an estimated total cost of land, existing improvements, and the hard costs of proposed improvements provided by Sterling Organization. The estimated cost of proposed improvements was approximately $87 per square foot of building area. For additional context, a review of sales in the past three years for comparable industrial properties in Fremont with similar square footage identified typical values within the range of $ 333 to $381 per square foot. Based on these comparable sales, the $325 per square foot valuation is a conservative estimate that ensures the property tax analysis avoids overstating revenues.

• The applicable overall ad valorem tax rate for all applicable jurisdictions is 1. 1327 percent.

Fremont receives 14.80 percent of the base one percent property tax rate as of 2025, after adjusting for Educational Revenue Augmentation Fund shifts to the state . Fremont also receives an additional .0034 percent of assessed value for voter-approved debt service.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 31 FIGURE 27: WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS TENANT: PROPERTY TAX REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS AND CALCULATION Total Building Area in Square Feet 149,795
Assessed Value of Land and Improvements $48,700,000

Ad Valorem Property Tax
Ad Valorem Property Tax Revenue, All Jurisdictions
General Levy @ 1.0% of Assessed Value $487,000
Additional Voter-Approved Property Tax for Debt Service @ .1327% $64,625 Total Property Tax Revenue, All Jurisdictions $551,625

Ad Valorem Property Tax Revenue, City of Fremont
City of Fremont Share of General Levy @ 14.8% of 1% $72,073 City of Fremont Voter-Approved Property Tax for Debt Service @ .0034% $1,656 Total $73,729

Ad Valorem Property Tax Revenue, Fremont Unified School District Only Fremont Unified School District Share of General Levy @ 19.33% of 1% $94,117.16 Fremont Unified School District Voter-Approved Tax @ .0442% $21,525.40 Total $115,642.56
Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Source: Alameda County Assessor, 2024-2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

BUSINESS TAX
Businesses at the proposed industrial development project at the Subject Site were estimated to generate $130 in annual business tax revenue with a warehouse/logistics tenant. Figure 28 shows the calculation basis, inputs, and business license tax revenue associated with the assumed warehouse/logistics use.

FIGURE 28: WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS TENANT: ANNUAL BUSINESS TAX REVENUE AND CALCULATION BASIS Land Use Calculation Basis Annual Business Tax Revenue
Warehouse $65/50,000 sf $130
Source: City of Fremont Fee Schedule, effective September 16, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

SALES TAX
The proposed industrial development project at the Subject Site was estimated to generate $49,901 in annual sales tax revenue for the City of Fremont. This estimate was based on sales tax data provided by the City of Fremont, which showed that the City receive d $15,766,724 of sales tax revenue from relevant categories of businesses in the city ’s industrial zones (excluding businesses such as retail stores and automobile dealers) during fiscal year 2024 -2025 as of October 2025. Industrial zones included in this sales tax value are Ardenwood Technical Park, Bayside Technical Park, Pacific Commons South Industrial Area, and Warm Springs Industrial Area. This was divided by the total industrial and flex square feet in Fremont tracked by CoStar (47,329,280 square feet), resulting in an estimated sales tax revenue of just over $0.333 per square foot for industrial properties.

The approximately 150 workers at the proposed industrial development project with a warehouse/logistics tenant would also generate additional spending at retail adjacent to the Subject Site. For example, the International Council of Shopping Centers estimates that office workers in Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 32 urban areas spent an average of $135 per week at retail and food establishments as of 2012.6 Workers at the Subject Site would support the vitality of existing retail and generate additional sales tax revenue.

TOTAL TEN-YEAR OPERATING REVENUES
Based on the preceding estimates of property tax, business tax, and sales tax revenue, the City of Fremont was estimated to receive $123,760 in recurring annual revenue upon buildout and stabilized occupancy of the proposed industrial development project with a warehouse /logistics tenant, representing more than $1,308,765 over the following ten-year period (in 2025 dollars). Assumptions incorporated in the estimate included:
• Assessed values grow at two percent annually, based on the maximum allowable increase under Proposition 13.
• Business taxes increase at the same rate as g ross payroll increases of 3.9 percent annually for purposes of calculating business taxes , based on the average of quarterly year -over-year wage and salary increases tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the San Jose -San Francisco-Oakland region for 2024 to 2025.
• Sales tax revenue increases eight percent annually, based on the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration average year-over-year growth in All Other Outlet taxable sales (a proxy for business-to-business transactions) in Fremont for the 2015 to 2024 period. • Annual inflation of 3.37 percent, approximately based on the average year-over-year change in the Bay Area Consumer Price Index from 2015 to 2024.

FIGURE 29: WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS TENANT: REVENUE, YEAR 1 BUILDOUT AND STABILIZED OCCUPANCY, AND TEN- YEAR REVENUE (2025 DOLLARS)
Tax Revenue Source Year 1
Total, Years 1-10
(2025 Dollars)
Property Tax: All Jurisdictions $551,625 $5,198,621
Property Tax: Fremont Only $73,729 $694,839
Property Tax: Fremont Unified School District $115,643 $1,089,838 Business Tax: Warehouse $130 $1,330
Sales Tax $49,901 $612,596
Total Annual Revenue, Fremont Only $123,760 $1,308,765
Source: Strategic Economics, 2025.

6 “Office-Worker Retail Spending in a Digital Age,” International Council of Shopping Centers, 2012.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 33 ONE TIME IMPACT FEE REVENUE
The proposed industrial development project would provide $66,234 in required one-time impact fees to mitigate the project’s impacts if fees are charged based on a warehouse/logistics use, as shown in Figure 31. The City of Fremont imposes impact fees to ensure development projects mitigate their own impacts on the City’s capital facilities, fire facilities, traffic, and affordable housing needs. This total accounts for the impact fees applied to the existing building if it converts from retail use to warehouse use. The capital facilities, traffic, and affordable housing categories are assessed with a higher fee rate for retail use compared to warehouse industrial use, resulting in no fee owed in those categories, as shown in Figure 30. Fire facilities are assessed with a higher fee rate for warehouse industrial use as compared to retail use, resulting in a small required fee payment. Approximately $66,000 in impact fees would also likely be owed for the addition of 6,000 square feet to the existing building.

FIGURE 30: CALCULATION OF FEES AND CREDITS FOR WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS USE Fees Fee Basis
Existing
Square
Feet
New
Square
Feet
Fee Amount
Owed: Existing
Sq. Ft.

Fee Amount
Owed: New Sq.

Ft.

Estimated Fees Owed Before Credits
Capital Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $542 143,795 6,000 $77,936.89 $3,252.00 Fire Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $448 143,795 6,000 $64,420.16 $2,688.00 Traffic (per 1,000 sq ft) $4,161 143,795 6,000 $598,331.00 $24,966.00 Affordable Housing (per sq ft) $5.84 143,795 6,000 $839,762.80 $35,040.00 Total Fees Owed Before Credits $1,580,450.85 $65,946.00

Estimated Fee Credits for Prior Uses
Previous Use: Retail
Capital Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $752 143,795 6,000 -$108,133.84 n/a Fire Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $446 143,795 6,000 -$64,132.57 n/a Traffic (per 1,000 sq ft) $9,626 143,795 6,000 -$1,384,170.67 n/a Affordable Housing (per sq ft) $11.66 143,795 6,000 -$1,676,649.70 n/a Total Fee Credits -$3,233,086.78 n/a

Estimated Fees Owed After Credits
Capital Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $0.00 $3,252.00 Fire Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $287.59 $2,688.00
Traffic (per 1,000 sq ft) $0.00 $24,966.00
Affordable Housing (per sq ft) $0.00 $35,040.00
Total Fees Owed After Credits $287.59 $65,946.00
Source: City of Fremont Fee Schedule, Effective September 16, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 34 FIGURE 31: WAREHOUSE/LOGISTICS TENANT: ONE-TIME IMPACT FEE REVENUE, 2025 Tax Revenue Source Warehouse/Logistics Tenant
Existing Building Addition
Capital Facilities $0 $3,252
Fire Facilities $288 $2,688
Traffic $0 $24,966
Affordable Housing $0 $35,040
Total $288 $65,946
Total One-Time Impact Fee Revenue $66,234
Source: City of Fremont Fee Schedule, Effective September 16, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Fiscal Contributions: Advanced Manufacturing Tenant

SECURED PROPERTY TAX
Estimated property tax revenues do not vary between the warehouse/logistics and manufacturing tenant scenarios; therefore, t he proposed industrial development project at the Subject Site was estimated to generate approximately $551,625 in annual secured property tax revenue, with the City of Fremont receiving $73,729 of this revenue and the Fremont Unified School District receiving approximately $115,623 of this revenue. The distribution of this property tax is shown in Figure 32.

This property tax revenue reflects revenue based on the assessed value of “secured” property (i.e., the value of land and improvements). The calculation methodology, assumptions, and resulting property tax revenues match the previous scenario in which a warehouse /logistics tenant occupies the space, since the development project’s attributes would remain the same regardless of the tenant.

FIGURE 32: ADVANCED MANUFACTURING TENANT: PROPERTY TAX REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS AND CALCULATION Total Building Area in Square Feet 149,795
Assessed Value of Land and Improvements $48,700,000

Ad Valorem Property Tax
Ad Valorem Property Tax Revenue, All Jurisdictions
General Levy @ 1.0% of Assessed Value $487,000
Additional Voter-Approved Property Tax for Debt Service @ .1327% $64,625 Total Property Tax Revenue, All Jurisdictions $551,625

Ad Valorem Property Tax Revenue, City of Fremont
City of Fremont Share of General Levy @ 14.8% of 1% $72,073 City of Fremont Voter-Approved Property Tax for Debt Service @ .0034% $1,656 Total $73,729

Ad Valorem Property Tax Revenue, Fremont Unified School District Only Fremont Unified School District Share of General Levy @ 19.33% of 1% $94,117.16 Fremont Unified School District Voter-Approved Tax @ .0442% $21,525.40 Total $115,642.56
Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Source: Alameda County Assessor, 2024-2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 35 BUSINESS TAX
Manufacturing businesses at the proposed industrial development project at the Subject Site were estimated to generate $3,679 in annual business tax revenue. Figure 33 shows the calculation basis, inputs, and business license tax revenue associated with the assumed manufacturing land use.

FIGURE 33: MANUFACTURING TENANT: ANNUAL BUSINESS TAX REVENUE AND CALCULATION BASIS Land Use Jobs Average Wage Calculation Basis
Annual Business Tax
Revenue
Manufacturing 333 $92,564 $.3 per $1,000 of gross payroll $9,247 Source: City of Fremont Fee Schedule, effective September 16, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

SALES TAX
The proposed industrial development project at the Subject Site was estimated to generate $49,901 in annual sales tax revenue for the City of Fremont. As with the warehouse/logistics tenant scenario, this estimate was based on sales tax data provided by the City of Fremont, which showed that the City receives estimated sales tax revenue of just over $0.333 per square foot of industrial properties.

The approximately 333 workers at the proposed industrial development project with a manufacturing tenant would also generate additional spending at retail adjacent to the Subject Site. Since a manufacturing tenant was estimated to include 183 more workers on-site than a comparable warehouse tenant, the manufacturing use will generate a greater impact on worker spending and sales tax revenue.

TOTAL TEN-YEAR OPERATING REVENUES
Based on the preceding estimates of property tax, business tax, and sales tax revenue, the City of Fremont is estimated to receive $132,877 in recurring annual revenue upon buildout and stabilized occupancy of the proposed industrial development project with a manufacturing tenant, representing over $1,402,069 over the following ten-year period (in 2025 dollars). Assumptions incorporated in the estimate are the same as those of the warehouse/logistics 10-year revenue estimate described earlier.

FIGURE 34: ADVANCED MANUFACTURING TENANT: REVENUE, YEAR 1 BUILDOUT AND STABILIZED OCCUPANCY, AND TEN-YEAR REVENUE (2025 DOLLARS)
Tax Revenue Source Year 1
Total, Years 1-10
(2025 Dollars)
Property Tax: All Jurisdictions $551,625 $5,198,621
Property Tax: Fremont Only $73,729 $694,839
Property Tax: Fremont Unified School District $115,643 $1,089,838 Business Tax: Advanced Manufacturing $9,247 $94,634
Sales Tax $49,901 $612,596
Total Annual Revenue, Fremont Only $132,877 $1,402,069
Source: Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 36 ONE TIME IMPACT FEE REVENUE
The proposed industrial development project would provide $67,800 in required one-time impact fees to mitigate the project’s impacts if fees are charged based on a manufacturing use, as shown in Figure

36. The City of Fremont imposes impact fees to ensure development projects mitigate their impacts on the City’s capital facilities, fire facilities, traffic, and affordable housing needs. This total impact fee revenue accounts for about $4,000 in fees owed based on the existing building as it converts from retail use to manufacturing industrial use, as shown in Figure 35. Approximately $64,000 in impact fees would also likely be owed for the addition of 6,000 square feet to the existing building.

FIGURE 35: CALCULATION OF FEES AND CREDITS FOR MANUFACTURING USE Fees Fee Basis
Existing
Square
Feet
New
Square
Feet
Fee Amount
Owed: Existing
Sq. Ft.

Fee Amount
Owed: New Sq.

Ft.

Estimated Fees Owed Before Credits
Capital Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $770 143,795 6,000 $110,722.15 $4,620.00 Fire Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $457 143,795 6,000 $65,714.32 $2,742.00 Traffic (per 1,000 sq ft) $3,538 143,795 6,000 $508,746.71 $21,228.00 Affordable Housing (per sq ft) $5.84 143,795 6,000 $839,762.80 $35,040.00 Total Fees Owed Before Credits $1,524,945.98 $63,630.00

Estimated Fee Credits for Prior Uses
Previous Use: Retail
Capital Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $752 143,795 6,000 -$108,133.84 n/a Fire Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $446 143,795 6,000 -$64,132.57 n/a Traffic (per 1,000 sq ft) $9,626 143,795 6,000 -$1,384,170.67 n/a Affordable Housing (per sq ft) $11.66 143,795 6,000 -$1,676,649.70 n/a Total Fee Credits -$3,233,086.78 n/a

Estimated Fees Owed After Credits
Capital Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $2,588.31 $4,620.00 Fire Facilities (per 1,000 sq ft) $1,581.75 $2,742.00 Traffic (per 1,000 sq ft) $0.00 $21,228.00
Affordable Housing (per sq ft) $0.00 $35,040.00
Total Fees Owed After Credits $4,170.06 $63,630.00 Source: City of Fremont Fee Schedule, Effective September 16, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

FIGURE 36: MANUFACTURING TENANT: ONE-TIME IMPACT FEE REVENUE, 2025 Tax Revenue Source Manufacturing Tenant
Existing Building Addition
Capital Facilities $2,588 $4,620
Fire Facilities $1,582 $2,742
Traffic $0 $21,228
Affordable Housing $0 $35,040
Total $4,170 $63,630
Total One-Time Impact Fee Revenue $67,800
Source: City of Fremont Fee Schedule, Effective September 16, 2025; Strategic Economics, 2025.

Market Assessment and Economic Benefits Analysis for Change of Use at 43800 Osgood Road 37 Comparison of Fiscal Contributions by Tenant Type
The development project’s fiscal contributions differ based on whether the space is occupied by a warehouse/logistics user or a manufacturing user. The primary drivers of the differences are different business tax and impact fee structures which vary by use. As shown below in Figure 37, a manufacturing user would contribute more revenue to the City of Fremont over time. Figure 37 also shows the estimated range of the project’s required one-time impact fee payments based on whether the City chooses to charge fees to the project as a warehouse/logistics use or manufacturing use.

FIGURE 37: COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED YEAR 1 AND TOTAL REVENUE BY TENANT TYPE (2025 DOLLARS) Tax Revenue Source
Warehouse/Logistics Tenant

Manufacturing Tenant
Year 1 Total, Years 1-10
(2025 Dollars) Year 1 Total, Years 1-10
(2025 Dollars)

Property Tax: All Jurisdictions $551,625 $5,198,621 $551,625 $5,198,621 Property Tax: Fremont Only $73,729 $694,839 $73,729 $694,839 Property Tax: Fremont Unified
School District Only $115,643 $1,089,838 $115,643 $1,089,838 Business Tax: Advanced Manufacturing N/A N/A $9,247 $94,634 Business Tax: Warehouse $130 $1,330 N/A N/A
Sales Tax $49,901 $612,596 $49,901 $612,596
Total Annual Revenue, Fremont Only $123,760 $1,308,765 $132,877 $1,402,069 Total One-Time Impact Fee Revenue $66,234 $67,800
Source: Strategic Economics, 2025.