August 11, 2026
Hon. Nelson Esparza, Council President
Members of the Fresno City Council
2600 Fresno Street
Fresno, CA 93721
by email
RE: City Council August 13, 2026 Agenda Item 3.-A., ID 26-1062 Workshop - South SEDA Economic Analysis
Dear Council President Esparza and Members of the City Council:
I write on behalf of CLC and RCI to respectfully request that your Council get the answers to your constituents’ questions about SEDA project financing.
Since the public is still— after eight months— in the dark about SEDA financing, we rely on you to dig deeply, and skeptically, into whatever you finally see at this workshop.
Our first concern, however, is that everyone but the Mayor and Planning staff will first see these reports at your workshop on Thursday. It is troubling that the administration is still withholding reports that should have been made fully available (including all source data) well in advance of any workshop. We request that you learn from staff, in detail, why it’s taken until August to produce the reports we were all promised in December, and which were apparently completed well before now.
This behavior is compatible with only one purpose we can think of: the reports won’t bear up to extended and careful scrutiny. Therefore, we also hope you’ll request that the administration immediately provide you (and the public of course) not only the reports but also all the source data and assumptions supporting those reports and their conclusions We ask you to question the consultants in detail about the assumptions on which the data are based, the methodology used to arrive at conclusions, and the process for finalizing the report(s).
A few essential questions (which go to show the need for time to vet this work thoroughly!):
Does the report examine all of SEDA or just South SEDA? If not all of SEDA, why not? What number of South SEDA residential units supports the revenue projections for the
City Council re: SEDA Workshop August 11, 2026 2 East of Temperance area? Within the past three months the Mayor has been reported to claim 4,800 units three times1, as well as 10,000 units2. Which is it? If the net-acreage formula is the same as that used in the May 2025 Public Utilities Financing Options Report, the actual yield is approximately 6,900 units. (See, Appendix, Table 1, infra). Does the new report use the same formulae as the prior report to calculate net acreage for each land use category? If not, why not? How do the fiscal and financing report conclusions change if the number of units is 4,800 rather than 10,000? Or if it’s 6,900? Have the consultants run the numbers for all three scenarios? Who made the choices about what formula and what numbers to use in the final version?
What assumptions were made about the housing types that will be producing revenue from residential uses? If the report assumes 10,000 units, the numbers compel the conclusion that the vast majority will be in multifamily. (See, Appendix, Table 1.) What assumptions were made about the proportion of rentals to owner-occupied units? What data support these assumptions?
What assumptions were made about the price point(s) for single-family housing units? Rental rates? What data support these assumptions
3?
Does the report accept the premise that Fresno developers will build at a 20 du/acre density? On what basis? What is the fiscal impact for the City if it approves SEDA but actual build- out falls substantially short of that density?
Does the report accept the premise that there is market demand for thousands of multi- family units in the SEDA area? On what basis? What is the fiscal impact for the City if it approves SEDA but actual home sales/rentals fall substantially short?
1 “The Fresno City Council was scheduled to approve the mega development in December. Instead, Dyer pivoted and asked for direction from the council for a section of the plan he calls South SEDA. It consists of about 1,963 acres, 469 of which would be used to build 4,800 residential units, with the rest for flexible research, located at the bottom portion of the SEDA area.” Fannin, Fresno’s megadevelopment plan a tough sell for rural homeowners. ‘We’ll be pushed out’, Fresno Bee, May 8, 2026 (https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article314595142.html#storylink=cpy); In the East of Temperance portion of SEDA, “Dyer anticipates 4,800 total units with a third dedicated to multi-family housing and two-thirds for single family homes.” Hok & Rangel, A mega housing project resurfaces an existential question in Fresno, KVPR Interview with Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer, June 26, 2026 (https://www.kvpr.org/government-politics/2026-06-30/a-mega-housing-project-resurfaces-an- existential-question-in-fresno); Montalvo, Fresno councilmember says measure would protect taxpayers from SEDA debt. Does it really? Fresno Bee, July 29, 2026 (https://www.aol.com/articles/fresno- councilmember-says-measure-protect-234900000.html)
2 “[T]he South SEDA portion advocated for by Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer… is reserved for 10,000 homes and a research and tech hub.” Smith, Dyer Says He's OK With Esparza Proposal to Hand SEDA Decisions to Voters, GV Wire, July 24, 2026 (https://gvwire.com/2026/07/24/dyer-says-hes-ok-with- esparza-proposal-to-hand-seda-decisions-to-voters/)
3 See, e.g., Mayor Dyer’s claim that “most of that would be for single family residential, for homeownership at what I think to be an affordable rate for people who grew up in Fresno.” Montalvo, Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer says he’d be ‘negligent’ not to pursue controversial SEDA project, Fresno Bee, February 21, 2026 (https://www.fresnobee.com/article314766733.html#storylink=cpy) City Council re: SEDA Workshop August 11, 2026 3 How does the report address Fresno’s dropping rate of population growth in reaching its conclusions about revenue generation? The California Department of Finance reports year- over-year growth between 2025 and 2026 at less than one tenth of one percent (0.09%)4.
Another source (see Appendix, Figure 1, infra) puts 2025-26 growth at about twice that, but still only 0.17%. If the administration rejects these sources, based on what source(s) are they claiming the growth numbers on which they wish you to rely? To what degree does the report factor in or otherwise rely on Measure C’s $55 million annual revenue for transportation improvements? Does the report address the uncertainty surrounding ongoing funding from this source? What is the fiscal impact for the City if it approves SEDA but neither Better Roads/Safe Streets nor the Mayor’s proposed City-only revenue measure becomes law?
If the report does not address the infinitesimally small chance of much building at 20 du/ac, or the administration’s improbable market demand assumptions, or the fact of population stagnation, or the uncertainty of funding for essential transportation infrastructure, can you base a decision of this gravity on this report?
Finally (for now), what type(s) of industrial development does the report use to calculate costs/revenues from the Flexible Research & Development area? Is there a formula for determining likely revenues from Research & Development activity (of which there’s basically none in Fresno County)? Where did the data come from for these analyses? Given the inconsistencies in the administration’s messaging to date, and its unwillingness to timely show its work so that we all can review it, understand it, and subject it to the test of reason, we are frankly concerned that there’s some cooking of the books going on. Of course we hope not, but we’re troubled. We therefore look to you to ask the hard questions, to refuse to accept nonresponsive answers, and to get the full picture for all of us before you make this important decision.
Thank you in advance for your attention to these matters. We’re happy to answer any questions or provide more information if needed.
Very truly yours,
PATIENCE MILROD
Attorney for Fresno Madera Tulare and Kings
Counties Central Labor Council, and Regenerate
California Innovation
cc: Mayor Jerry Dyer
City Attorney
City Clerk, for inclusion in the SEDA record of proceedings
4 E-1 Cities, Counties, and the State Population and Housing Estimates with Annual Percent Change — January 1, 2025 and 2026, 2025-26 City Population Percent Change Rankings, https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/estimates-e1/
City Council re: SEDA Workshop August 11, 2026 4
Appendix
Table 1. Applying to “Refined” SEDA Plan the formulae from Table A-1 - May 2025 Public Facilities Financing Options Report
Gross Acres
South SEDA
Plan
Reduction
Factor to get
to Net
Developable
Acres
Net
Developable
Acres
Density Per
Acre Used
by City and
Public
Facilities
Financing
May 2025
Housing
Units
Likely
Predominant
Building
Type at these
Net Densities
Neighborhood
Residential = 407
acres
0.67 272.69 20 du/ac 5,454 Apartments
Mixed Residential
= 41 acres
0.67 27.47 25 du/ac 687 Apartments
Neighborhood
Town Ctr = 10
acres
0.77 7.7 30 du/ac 231 Apartments
Community Town
Ctr = 11 acres
0.83 10.23 55 du/ac 563 Apartments
Total 6,935
City Council re: SEDA Workshop August 11, 2026 5 Figure 1. Fresno County’s 2026 population is estimated at 1,037,214, reflecting a 0.17% growth rate over the past year (World Population Review based on U.S. Census Bureau data. Emphasis added.) https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/california/fresno-county: