Regular Council Meeting
September 3, 2026
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WORKSHOP - South SEDA Economic Analysis
Contents of Supplement: South SEDA Economic Presentation and Fresno South SEDA Economic Analyses
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Supplemental Information:
Any agenda related public documents received and distributed to a majority of the City Council after the Agenda Packet is printed are included in Supplemental Packets.
Supplemental Packets are produced as needed. The Supplemental Packet is available for public inspection in the City Clerk's Office, 2600 Fresno Street, during normal business hours (main location pursuant to the Brown Act, G.C. 54957.5(2). In addition, Supplemental Packets are available for public review at the City Council meeting in the City Council Chambers, 2600 Fresno Street. Supplemental Packets are also available on-line on the City Clerk's website.
Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA):
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South SEDA Economic Analysis Workshop
S e p t e m b e r 3 , 2 0 2 6
1 Agenda
• Background
• Public Financing Analysis
• Fiscal Impact Analysis
• Community Benefit Fund
Analysis
• Connection to Past Projects
Background
3 • Council selected the environmentally superior alternative known as the Consolidated Business Park alternative with modifications on December 18, 2025. This map reflects the land uses which provided the basis for the economic analyses. • Council requested additional analysis broken down into the two sub areas in South SEDA, including:
• Cost estimates to construct pre-development infrastructure • Funding requirements and repayment schedule for pre-development infrastructure • Net fiscal impacts of development at buildout
• Evaluation of an EIFD or similar mechanism to benefit existing residents and neighborhoods • Council directed phasing to be incorporated in the Plan to only allow South SEDA until 75% of the residential was built and occupied
South SEDA Map
4 • As directed by City Council, the area outlined in red will be advanced as Phase 1 (South SEDA) and limit
development to this area.
• All of SEDA is 9,000 acres with 1,663 acres already
developed leaving 82% for future development
• South SEDA is 2,017 acres with 78 acres already
developed leaving 96% remaining for future
development
• All existing land uses will remain in perpetuity.
Summary of Findings
5 • Public Finance Analysis
• South SEDA can pay for itself
• Fiscal Impact Analysis
• South SEDA will have a net positive General Fund impact • Community Benefit Analysis
• The net positive General Fund impact can be used to benefit existing residents and neighborhoods
Baseline
Assumptions
6 • Project Land Uses at Buildout
• South of Jensen (Flexible R&D)
• More than 18.8 million square feet of employment uses • Over 8,600 direct construction jobs*
• Absorption range of 9-36 years for Flexible R&D
• 23,700 permanent jobs
• East of Temperance (Residential)
• 10,070 housing unit capacity – 8,140 single family and 1,930 multifamily units
• Over 1,300 direct construction jobs*
• Conservative absorption in 18 years
• 225 permanent jobs in neighborhood serving retail and office
*not including construction of infrastructure
Baseline
Assumptions
Predevelopment
Backbone
Infrastructure
7 • Sewer Trunk Main improvements are the only
predevelopment infrastructure improvements to be
constructed by the City
• Total predevelopment infrastructure costs: $65.9
million (2026$)
• Potential bond issuance in 2029 equals escalated
infrastructure costs: $72.0 million (2029$)
• South of Jensen (1,547 acres) - $53.7 million
• East of Temperance (467) - $18.3 million
Public Finance Analysis
8 • Financing Approach
• Land-secured financing (Mello-Roos Community Facilities District [CFD]; State pooled programs)
• Revenue-secured financing (Enterprise Revenue; Certificate of Participation) • Public-Private Partnership
• Form Infrastructure CFD alongside initial financing
• Assess financing options over time
Public Finance Analysis (cont.)
9 • Estimated Bond Sizing - $86.1 million total bond (2029$) • South of Jensen - $64.2 million
• East of Temperance - $21.9 million
• Subsidy required to cover a portion of annual bond debt service in initial years • The subareas of South SEDA can pay for themselves independently or combined • South of Jensen
• Cost neutral after 2-9 years
• Private development repays subsidy in additional 3-9 years • East of Temperance
• Cost neutral after 3 years
• Private development repays subsidy in additional 4 years • Combined Subareas
• Cost neutral after 3-6 years
• Private development repays subsidy in additional 2-5 years Fiscal Impact Analysis
10 • Annual Revenues at Buildout: South SEDA will generate $45.1 million (2025$) in total annual General Fund revenues (including $23.7M property tax, $4.7M sales tax)
• South of Jensen (Flex R&D) - $19.0M total ($8.5M property tax, $2.4M sales tax)
• East of Temperance (Residential) - $26.1M total ($15.3M property tax, $2.2M sales tax
• Annual Expenditures at Buildout: South SEDA will require $27.9 million (2025$) in total annual General Fund service expenditures (including $16.4M Police, $4.4M Fire)
• South of Jensen - $9.7M total ($6.8M Police, $0.9M Fire) • East of Temperance - $18.1M total ($9.6M Police, $3.5M Fire) Fiscal Impact Analysis
11 • At buildout, South SEDA is estimated to generate an annual net General Fund fiscal surplus of $17.2 million (2025$)
• South of Jensen - $9.3M annual net General Fund surplus • East of Temperance - $8.0M annual net General Fund surplus • Early years also generate an annual net General Fund fiscal surplus • By end of year 2 (2031) – net fiscal surplus is $1-2 million annually • By end of year 5 (2035) – net fiscal surplus is $4-5 million annually • Additional non-General Fund impacts at buildout
• $1.8M in annual in Measure P revenues
• $7.1M in annual in Comprehensive Street Maintenance expenditures Community Benefit Analysis - EIFD
12 • Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD)
• An EIFD would be feasible, generating up to $1.65B in cumulative revenue (real dollars) over 45-year period
• Assumes 100% allocation of City of Fresno property tax increment • Pros/Cons of an EIFD
• Viable tool for financing or paying as you go for infrastructure investments and affordable housing in the district boundary and citywide • Reduces the net fiscal surplus to the General Fund by reallocating property tax revenue to EIFD fund
Community Benefit Analysis - CBF
13 • A portion of the net annual General Fund surplus could be allocated to a restricted Community Benefit Fund, established by City Council:
• Revenue in the Community Benefit Fund could supplement existing neighborhoods in the Infill Opportunity Zone as shown in the General Plan • Provide CFD-type services like street repaving, sidewalk repair, landscaping, etc.
• Increase commitment to the City’s existing Residential Infill Program • Support existing residents in SEDA to hook-up to water/sewer if required by the City
Infill Opportunity
Zone
14 • CBF for areas in the dark yellow
areas which represent the Infill
Opportunity Zone
• CBF would not be available in areas
which already are covered by an
existing Community Facilities District
or an EIFD
Prior Sewer Projects
15 • Grantland Avenue Trunk Sewer
• Wastewater Reclamation Facility
(shared regional facility)
• Fowler Avenue Trunk Sewer
(shared facility with the City of
Clovis)
Summary of Findings
16 • Public Finance Analysis
• South SEDA can pay for itself
• Fiscal Impact Analysis
• South SEDA will have a net positive General Fund impact • Community Benefit Analysis
• The net positive General Fund impact can be used to benefit existing residents and neighborhoods
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA
ECONOMIC ANALYSES
REPORT
PREPARED FOR PREPARED BY
City of Fresno Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
August 31, 2026
EPS #262083
Table of Contents
1. Introduction and Summary of Findings 1
Background .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 Project Land Uses at Buildout .............................................................................................................................. 3 Predevelopment Backbone Infrastructure ......................................................................................................... 4 Key Findings ............................................................................................................................................................. 5
2. Public Finance Analysis 15
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 Predevelopment Backbone Infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 15 Financing Approach .............................................................................................................................................. 16 Estimated Subsidy and Repayment Period ...................................................................................................... 19 Public Finance Technical Appendices ............................................................................................................... 26
3. Fiscal Impact Analysis 27
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 27 Project Fiscal Impact Analysis Overview ......................................................................................................... 27 Overview of Results ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Methodology and Assumptions ......................................................................................................................... 31 Revenue-Estimating Methodology .................................................................................................................... 33 Expenditure-Estimating Methodology .............................................................................................................. 37 Project Fiscal Impact Analysis During Subsidy Period ................................................................................... 38 Fiscal Impact Analysis Technical Appendices .................................................................................................. 40
4. Community Benefit Analysis 42
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 42 EIFD Funding Analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 42 Community Benefit Fund Alternative ............................................................................................................... 46 EIFD Analysis Technical Appendices ................................................................................................................ 49
Technical Sections with Appendices
Section 1: Detailed Land Uses and Absorption Scenarios
Section 2: Supporting Calculations for Public Finance Analysis Section 3: Supporting Calculations for Fiscal Impact Analysis Section 4: Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD) Funding Analysis
List of Tables
Table 1-1. South SEDA Land Use Summary .............................................................................................................. 3 Table 2-1. Summary of Predevelopment Backbone Infrastructure Costs........................................................ 16 Table 2-2. Subsidy Repayment Summary ............................................................................................................... 21 Table 2-3. Estimated South SEDA Bond Sizing Summary ................................................................................... 23 Table 2-4. Estimated Annual Taxes/Assessments as a Percentage of Sales Price (2026$) .......................... 25 Table 3-1. Summary of Annual Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (2025$) .......................................................................... 29 Table 3-2. Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts at Buildout ............................................................................... 30 Table 3-3. Summary of Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts Aligned with Subsidy Period (2025$) .......... 41 Table 4-1. General Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 44 Table 4-2. Cumulative EIFD Revenues by Area and Scenario (in $1,000s)...................................................... 44 Table 4-3. Projected EIFD Revenues by Year (Real Dollars and 2026$) .......................................................... 45 List of Maps
Map 1-1. South SEDA Land Use Plan by Subarea .................................................................................................. 2 Map 4-1. Potential Geographic Scope of Community Benefit Fund Revenues ............................................ 48
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 1 Introduction and Summary of Findings
1. Introduction and Summary of Findings
Background
The City of Fresno (City) retained Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) to prepare a series of economic analyses for the Environmentally Superior Alternative of the proposed Southeast Development Area (SEDA) Specific Plan. This alternative, identified in the SEDA Specific Plan Environmental Impact Report (EIR), is the City’s preferred land use alternative and is referred to as South SEDA or the Project in this report. Economic analyses prepared for the Project comprise:
• An infrastructure financing analysis;
• A fiscal impact analysis;
• An evaluation of the feasibility of an Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD) and, as an alternative, a Community Benefit Fund approach, both intended to provide benefits to the broader community.
The Project is currently located in unincorporated Fresno County (County) and is assumed to be annexed into the City prior to development. The analyses distinguish costs and impacts between two development subareas of South SEDA, referred to as East of Temperance and South of Jensen in this study.
Map 1-1 shows the boundary and location of each subarea and planned land uses at buildout.
EPS prepared this report to assist in answering key questions posed by City Council.
EPS evaluated the City’s funding requirements and repayment schedule for needed upfront backbone infrastructure (Public Finance Analysis, see Chapter 2), the net fiscal impacts of development at buildout (Fiscal Impact Analysis, see Chapter 3), and an evaluation of the feasibility of an EIFD and an alternative community benefit option (Community Benefit Analysis, see Chapter 4).
This introductory chapter presents land use development assumptions and key findings from each economic analysis. The remainder of this report is organized into three chapters (Chapter 2 through Chapter 4, as described above) and four technical sections. The technical sections provide additional detail and supporting calculations for each analysis through one or more appendices:
• Section 1: Detailed Land Uses and Absorption Scenarios. • Section 2: Supporting Calculations for Public Finance Analysis. • Section 3: Supporting Calculations for Fiscal Impact Analysis. • Section 4: EIFD Funding Analysis.
Note that appendix references in this report follow each associated technical section number (e.g., Section 1, Appendix A).
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2 Introduction and Summary of Findings Map 1-1. South SEDA Land Use Plan by Subarea
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 3 Introduction and Summary of Findings Project Land Uses at Buildout
Based on land use development assumptions provided by the City, the Project includes development of about 10,000 residential units and nearly 19 million square feet of nonresidential uses. The East of Temperance subarea includes all planned residential land uses and a nominal amount of nonresidential development. In contrast, the South of Jensen subarea is anticipated to accommodate nonresidential uses only, primarily comprising industrial flexible research and development (R&D) uses, along with a smaller amount of office development. EPS has not independently evaluated the feasibility of the proposed land uses as part of this study.
Projected land uses by subarea are summarized in Table 1-1. Table A-1 in Section 1, Appendix A provides a detailed summary of Project land uses at buildout by subarea.
Table 1-1. South SEDA Land Use Summary
• E
ast of Temperance: Beginning in 2030, residential and nonresidential retail a
nd office development is assumed to fully build out by 2047. See Tables A-2 and A-3 in Section 1 for residential and nonresidential absorption estimates, respectively.
Land Use
East of
Temperance
South of
Jensen Total
Residential Dwelling Units
Single Family 8,140 - 8,140
Multifamily 1,930 - 1,930
Total 10,070 - 10,070
Nonresidential Building Square Feet
Office 6,800 866,250 873,050
Retail 95,500 - 95,500
Industrial - 18,000,000 18,000,000
Total 102,300 18,866,250 18,968,550
Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS.
Development Absorption Scenarios
The City prepared development absorption scenarios for the purpose of this study.
The East of Temperance subarea includes one absorption scenario, while the South of Jensen subarea includes two absorption scenarios, referred to as the Low Absorption Scenario and the High Absorption Scenario, representing a range of anticipated absorption. EPS has not independently evaluated market support for these absorption scenarios as part of this study.
The absorption scenarios are summarized below and detailed in Section 1, Tables A-2 through A-7.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 4 Introduction and Summary of Findings • South of Jensen: Both scenarios assume 202,500 square feet of office space will absorb between 2030 and 2074, with significant remaining office development (663,750 square feet) anticipated to absorb after 2074. The key difference in the two scenarios is the rate of industrial (flex R&D) de
velopment absorption.
- Low Absorption Scenario: Beginning in 2030, this scenario assumes an av
erage annual absorption of 500,000 square feet of industrial (flex R&D) space with full buildout of all 18 million square feet by 2065. See Table A-4 in Section 1 for the Low Absorption Scenario. - High Absorption Scenario: Beginning in 2030, this scenario assumes an av
erage annual absorption of 2 million square feet of industrial (flex R&D) space, with full buildout of all 18 million square feet by 2038. See Table A-5 in Section 1 for the High Absorption Scenario.
Tables A-6 and A-7 in Section 1 detail total nonresidential absorption in South SEDA under each scenario.
Predevelopment Backbone Infrastructure
South SEDA development requires upfront backbone infrastructure, referred to as "predevelopment costs" in this study. These improvements are required to be constructed before development can begin in either subarea. Predevelopment costs consist of sewer costs only, specifically sewer main improvements. Sewer tributaries are excluded and will instead be funded through Project-specific development impact fees established in a future nexus study.
Total predevelopment infrastructure costs are estimated at $65.9 million (2026$), based on updated City costs provided in June 2026. This study assumes predevelopment infrastructure improvements will be constructed in calendar year 2029. As such, costs have been escalated to 2029 dollars, using an annual 3 percent escalation factor representing the average long-term rate of inflation.
Total predevelopment infrastructure costs are estimated at $72.0 million in 2029$:
• East of Temperance: $18.3 million in sewer improvement costs (2029$) • South of Jensen: $53.7 million in sewer improvement costs (2029$) Other backbone infrastructure will be required as phased residential and nonresidential development occurs and will be funded by private developers, but this infrastructure is not addressed in this report.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 5 Introduction and Summary of Findings Key Findings
Public Finance Analysis
The Public Finance Analysis, detailed in Chapter 2 of this report, evaluates funding and financing options for the upfront backbone sewer infrastructure required to be constructed before development in East of Temperance or South of Jensen can begin. These findings outline key limitations and opportunities associated with various financing approaches, along with the estimated costs, bond sizing, and subsidy requirements under a City-issued bond scenario.
All estimates are sensitive to changes in key assumptions, including development absorption rates, Infrastructure Community Facilities District (CFD) special tax rates, financing interest rates, and infrastructure costs. Changes to any of these inputs would affect the estimated subsidy, bond sizing, and repayment period.
Financing Approach
• Land-secured bonds cannot fund the predevelopment costs upfront. Bonds secured by land value, including Mello-Roos Community Facilities District (CFD) bonds and assessment district bonds, are the financing tool most commonly used for infrastructure of this kind, but are subject to a minimum value-to-lien ratio, typically at least 3:1, although a more conservative value- to-lien ratio may be required, subject to consultation with the City’s municipal advisor, bond counsel, and the bond underwriting team. Before development occurs, South SEDA consists largely of undeveloped land with limited value, so this threshold cannot be met; land-secured bond capacity would instead be realized gradually as development occurs and land values rise. • Pooled land-secured programs such as Statewide Community Infrastructure Program (SCIP) and Bond Opportunities for Land Development (BOLD) are not well suited for funding upfront predevelopment costs. These programs are subject to the same value-to-lien constraint described above, applied at the individual project level. In many circumstances, these programs would finance development impact fees and infrastructure costs at or near the building permit stage, once a project has progressed far enough to carry sufficient value to meet that threshold. Once those projects have progressed to the building permit stage and carry sufficient value to meet the value-to- lien threshold, these programs could become relevant for financing infrastructure or impact fees on individual development projects within South SEDA.
• The City could rely on a revenue-secured financing tool to fund the predevelopment costs at the outset. Options include an Enterprise Revenue Bond, repaid from utility user rates and surcharges, or Certificate of Participation (COP) lease financing, in which a trustee provides upfront funding in exchange for lease payments funded by the City General Fund.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 6 Introduction and Summary of Findings • A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) could also directly address the upfront funding gap. Under a PPP, a private partner would directly finance, design, build, operate, and/or maintain the infrastructure while the City retains ownership; this option is described further in Chapter 2. • The City could form an Infrastructure CFD alongside initial financing to reimburse upfront financing, or to fund other infrastructure costs on a pay- as-you-go basis. An Infrastructure CFD could be formed after a subarea (or portions of each subarea) annexes into the City. The Infrastructure CFD would impose annual special taxes on private residential and nonresidential development in South SEDA.
1 If an Enterprise Revenue Bond or COP lease
financing is used, Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue could reimburse the enterprise fund or City General Fund, respectively, for amounts used to cover Enterprise Revenue Bond debt service or COP lease payments until sufficient Infrastructure CFD revenue can fully cover these annual obligations or until development increases land value sufficiently to underwrite an Infrastructure CFD bond issuance, which could serve to retire and replace the initial capital financing mechanism. If a PPP is used instead, the private partner would fund the predevelopment costs upfront, and the Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue could be used to reimburse the private partner or for other infrastructure costs depending on the specific terms of the agreement.
• Assuming an Infrastructure CFD is formed, Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue is estimated to be insufficient to fully reimburse the City enterprise fund or General Fund in the early years of development, requiring a subsidy to cover the shortfall until special tax revenue is sufficient to fully reimburse those advances. Additional details regarding the subsidy amount, subsidy period, and subsidy repayment period for each subarea and absorption scenario are discussed below. If a PPP or other alternative arrangement is used instead, this subsidy would not apply.
• City Council may wish to establish a development threshold, a minimum level of development within South SEDA, as a policy benchmark for reassessing financing options over time. If a PPP does not materialize, a Mello-Roos Infrastructure CFD bond or pooled bond program, such as SCIP or BOLD, could serve as a future takeout bond, refinancing the initial Enterprise Revenue Bond or COP lease financing, once South SEDA development reaches a sufficient level of developed property assessed value to meet the applicable value-to-lien ratio discussed above. The required assessed value varies by absorption scenario and whether each subarea
1 In this study, annual special taxes from an Infrastructure CFD applied to private development are modeled to escalate by two percent annually and are in effect for a 30-year term.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 7 Introduction and Summary of Findings finances its own predevelopment costs individually or the subareas finance the combined predevelopment costs together. In addition, the estimated development thresholds are based on current market values used in this study; actual thresholds may vary.
- East of Temperance (individual financing): Requires an estimated $65.6 million in developed property assessed value. This assessed value could be reached after the development of approximately 110 single-family units (1.4 percent of buildout single-family units).
- South of Jensen (individual financing): Requires an estimated $192.6 million in developed property assessed value. This assessed value could be reached after the development of approximately 900,000 industrial square feet (4.8 percent of all nonresidential square footage at buildout). - Combined subareas: Requires an estimated $258.2 million in developed property assessed value (the sum of the amounts for each individual subarea). This assessed value could be reached after the combined development described above for the individual areas (approximately 110 single-family units in East of Temperance and 900,000 industrial square feet in South of Jensen). The assessed value could also be achieved by a combination of other proposed land uses.
Estimated Bond Sizing and Subsidy Requirements
The following bond sizing and subsidy estimates were modeled assuming bond financing based on preliminary bond term assumptions; bond terms would ultimately be informed by discussions between the City and the City’s municipal advisor, bond counsel, and the bond underwriting team. If COP lease financing or other non-bond financing is used instead, actual financing terms may vary from what was modeled in this study, which would affect the resulting sizing, subsidy amount, and repayment period. It is assumed that a Public-Private Partnership arrangement would not follow this financing and subsidy structure. • Predevelopment infrastructure costs, comprising sewer costs only, total an estimated $65.9 million (2026$) based on costs provided by the City in June 2026. These costs were escalated to $72.0 million (2029$) because it is estimated that the predevelopment infrastructure will be constructed in 2029:
- East of Temperance: $18.3 million in sewer improvement costs (2029$). - South of Jensen: $53.7 million in sewer improvement costs (2029$). • Bond sizing is estimated based on assumed Infrastructure CFD special tax rates and total predevelopment costs in 2029$. One or more bonds would be sized to cover predevelopment infrastructure costs and costs of issuance.
The assumed annual special tax rates are $1,300 per unit for single-family residential, $1,000 per unit for multifamily residential, and $10,000 per acre
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 8 Introduction and Summary of Findings for nonresidential uses. Residential tax rates are based on an assessment of available taxing capacity given existing taxes and assessments, reserving additional capacity for other future taxes and assessments. Actual tax rates could be lower, which could result in a higher subsidy and longer repayment timeframe.
It is assumed that the predevelopment infrastructure would be constructed in 2029 and that a bond would be issued in that same year. Because residential and nonresidential development is not anticipated to begin until 2030, it is assumed that the bond would be sized to include one year of capitalized interest so that debt service payments could be deferred until 2030. Based on the assumed predevelopment costs, cost of issuance, and capitalized interest amounts, bond sizes are estimated as follows:
- East of Temperance: $21.9 million (2029$).
- South of Jensen: $64.2 million (2029$).
- Total (one bond issuance): $86.1 million (2029$).
• Based on a scenario in which the City issues an Enterprise Revenue Bond to finance predevelopment costs, a subsidy is estimated to be necessary to cover debt service in the initial years following the bond issuance. Under the individual subarea repayment scenarios, East of Temperance requires a smaller subsidy than South of Jensen under either absorption scenario, and a shorter repayment period than South of Jensen under the Low Absorption Scenario.
This study assumes no interest accrues on the outstanding subsidy balance. All subsidy amounts are expressed in nominal dollars.
- East of Temperance: The total subsidy amount for this subarea is estimated at $3.2 million over an estimated period of 3 years. Beginning in year 4, annual Infrastructure CFD special tax revenues generated by private development are estimated to fully cover annual debt service.
Repayment of the subsidy is estimated to take 4 years (years 4-7) following the 3-year subsidy period.
- South of Jensen: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, the total subsidy amount is estimated to equal $21.5 million over an estimated subsidy period of 9 years.
Beginning in year 10, annual Infrastructure CFD special tax revenues generated by private development are estimated to fully cover annual debt service.
Repayment of the subsidy is estimated to take 9 years (years 10-18) following the 9-year subsidy period. Under the High Absorption Scenario, the total subsidy amount is estimated to equal $4.4 million over an estimated subsidy period of 2 years. Beginning in year 3, annual Infrastructure CFD special tax revenues generated by private development are estimated to fully cover annual debt service. Repayment of the subsidy is estimated to take 3 years (years 3-5) following the 2-year subsidy period.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 9 Introduction and Summary of Findings - Combined Subareas: Under a combined subarea repayment scenario, the total subsidy ranges from $7.1million (High Absorption Scenario) to $19.5 million (Low Absorption Scenario). The estimated subsidy period ranges from 3 to 6 years. Beginning in year 4 under the High Absorption Scenario and year 7 under the Low Absorption Scenario, annual Infrastructure CFD special tax revenues generated by private development are estimated to fully cover annual debt service. Repayment of the subsidy is estimated to take 2 years (High Absorption Scenario) to 5 years (Low Absorption Scenario) following the 3 to 6-year subsidy period.
Fiscal Impact Analysis
The Fiscal Impact Analysis, detailed in Chapter 3, estimates the annual net fiscal impact of South SEDA development on the General Fund, as well as additional fiscal impacts outside the General Fund, at buildout and during the subsidy years, as discussed later in this section. Because the analysis is based on the City's most recent Fiscal Year (FY) 2025-26 budget and two prior FY budgets escalated to align with the current budget, all figures are presented in constant 2025 dollars.
All Fiscal Impact Analysis results presented in this report are based on the City’s existing service levels and are sensitive to changes in key assumptions, including development plans, assessed valuations, service levels, and assumptions based on current State of California legislation and City fiscal practices. Changes to any of these inputs would affect the estimated revenues, expenditures, and net fiscal impacts.
Fiscal Impact Analysis at Project Buildout
The Fiscal Impact Analysis at buildout estimates the annual net fiscal impact of South SEDA development on the City's General Fund at buildout for each subarea and in total. The key findings are summarized below:
• Residential Population at Buildout: The East of Temperance subarea is estimated to accommodate approximately 29,800 residents at buildout. The South of Jensen subarea is not anticipated to include residential development.
• Ongoing, Annual Jobs at Buildout: South SEDA is estimated to support approximately 24,000 ongoing, annual jobs at buildout, based on an estimate of employees used as a proxy for jobs. This figure excludes one-time construction jobs associated with infrastructure and vertical development, which were not estimated as part of this study.
- East of Temperance: estimated to support approximately 225 jobs at buildout. - South of Jensen: estimated to support approximately 23,700 jobs at buildout, driven primarily by industrial (flex R&D) development.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 10 Introduction and Summary of Findings • Key General Fund Revenues at Buildout: Property tax and sales tax are two of the largest General Fund revenue sources generated by private development in the Project. At buildout, the Project is estimated to generate approximately $45.1 million in total annual General Fund revenues, of which approximately $23.7 million is annual property tax revenue, based on the current property tax sharing agreement between the City and County for development in SEDA, and $4.7 million is annual sales tax revenue. The Project generates other annual General Fund revenues, including property tax in lieu of vehicle license fees (VLF Swap), Proposition 172 sales tax, business license tax, franchise fees, and other taxes and fees, as described further in Chapter 3.
- East of Temperance: estimated to generate approximately $15.3 million in annual property tax revenue and $2.2 million in annual sales tax revenue at buildout.
- South of Jensen: estimated to generate approximately $8.5 million in annual property tax revenue and $2.4 million in annual sales tax revenue at buildout.
• Key General Fund Expenditures at Buildout: The Project will require municipal services, including public safety and other General Fund-supported services. At buildout, the Project is estimated to require approximately $27.9 million in total annual General Fund expenditures, of which $16.4 million is annual police service costs and $4.4 million is annual fire service costs. The Project also generates other General Fund expenditures, including General Government, Planning & Development, Public Works, and Parks, After School, Recreation, and Community Services (PARCS) costs, among others, as described further in Chapter 3.
- East of Temperance: estimated to require $9.6 million in annual police service costs and $3.5 million in annual fire service costs. - South of Jensen: estimated to require $6.8 million in annual police service costs and $887,000 in annual fire service costs. • Overall Net Fiscal Impacts at Buildout: Buildout of the Project is estimated to yield an annual net fiscal surplus for the City’s General Fund of approximately $17.2 million.
- East of Temperance: estimated to generate an annual net fiscal surplus of approximately $8.0 million for the City’s General Fund at buildout. - South of Jensen: estimated to generate an annual net fiscal surplus of approximately $9.3 million for the City’s General Fund at buildout. • Additional Fiscal Impacts at Buildout: Beyond the General Fund, the Project is estimated to generate additional fiscal impacts at buildout. The Project is estimated to generate approximately $1.8 million annually in Measure P
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 11 Introduction and Summary of Findings revenue, a citywide special sales tax restricted to parks that is not deposited into the General Fund, and to require approximately $7.1 million annually in Comprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) costs, covering landscape maintenance, street trees, and street maintenance, which also falls outside the General Fund.
- East of Temperance: estimated to generate approximately $840,000 in annual Measure P revenue and require about $3.1 million in annual CSM expenditures at buildout.
- South of Jensen: estimated to generate approximately $917,000 in annual Measure P revenue and require about $4.0 million in annual CSM expenditures at buildout.
Annual Net Fiscal Impacts for Subsidy Years
If the City finances the predevelopment costs through bond financing, a subsidy is estimated to be required during the years Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue is insufficient to fully cover debt service. If COP lease financing or other non- bond financing is used instead, the subsidy amount and timing shown below may differ from these estimates. This subsidy would not apply if a PPP or other alternative arrangement is used instead.
The following results summarize the City's annual net fiscal position during the initial and final years of the required subsidy period for each subarea and absorption scenario. The initial subsidy year is 2030 across all scenarios; the final subsidy year varies by subarea and absorption scenario, as detailed below. The key findings are summarized below.
• This study estimates an annual net General Fund surplus for each subarea and scenario in the initial year of the subsidy period (2030), and that net General Fund surplus continues to grow by the final subsidy year. - East of Temperance: This subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $87,000 in 2030, which increases to an annual net General Fund surplus of $562,000 by the final subsidy year (2032). - South of Jensen: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $228,000 initially (2030), increasing to $2.0 million by the final subsidy year (2038).
Under the High Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $903,000 initially (2030), increasing to $1.8 million by the final subsidy year (2031). - Combined Subareas: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $312,000 initially (2030), increasing to $4.8 million by the final subsidy year (2035). Under the High Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $990,000 initially (2030), increasing to $3.3 million by the final subsidy year (2032).
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 12 Introduction and Summary of Findings • The Project is estimated to result in an annual net fiscal surplus for the City, inclusive of net General Fund impacts and additional non-General Fund revenue and expenditure items. Beyond the General Fund net fiscal impacts described above, the Project is estimated to generate Measure P revenue and require CSM costs. In addition, during the first ten years following annexation, the City is obligated to reimburse the Fresno County Fire Protection District for property tax revenue previously allocated to the district. A summary of the annual net General Fund impacts and these additional revenue and cost impacts is provided below.
It is important to note that the City's General Fund is one of several funding sources covering CSM expenditures but, for the purpose of this study, the net fiscal impacts provided below show CSM expenditures fully netted against the net General Fund surplus.
- East of Temperance: This subarea is estimated to result in an annual net fiscal surplus of $28,000 initially (2030), which increases to $365,000 by the final subsidy year (2032).
- South of Jensen: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $113,000 initially (2030), increasing to $1.3 million by the final subsidy year (2038).
Under the High Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $542,000 initially (2030), increasing to $1.1 million by the final subsidy year (2031). - Combined Subareas: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $137,000 initially (2030), increasing to $4.2 million by the final subsidy year (2035). Under the High Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $570,000 initially (2030), increasing to $2.1 million by the final subsidy year (2032).
Detailed summaries of annual net fiscal impacts for each subarea and scenario during the subsidy period are provided in Chapter 3 and in Section 3, Table F-1 through Table F-5.
Community Benefit Analysis
This section summarizes the results of the EIFD Funding Analysis, detailed further in Chapter 4, and describes a Community Benefit Fund alternative. An EIFD is a mechanism authorized under California law that captures the growth in property tax revenue, or "tax increment," generated by new development within a district, and dedicates that revenue to eligible public infrastructure and improvements. The EIFD Analysis evaluates the potential property tax increment revenue an EIFD could generate to help fund backbone infrastructure improvements in the Project, based on development in each subarea. The actual boundaries and terms of any future EIFD may differ from what is evaluated in this study.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 13 Introduction and Summary of Findings • An Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD) would be highly feasible for South SEDA and could generate substantial revenue. EPS estimates that an EIFD could generate between approximately $1.54 billion and $1.65 billion in cumulative revenue (real dollars) within the South SEDA planning area over a 45-year analysis period, depending on the absorption scenario. These estimates assume a 45-year EIFD term beginning in FY 2029-30, the City of Fresno as the sole participating taxing entity, and a 100 percent contribution of the City's property tax increment revenue, with no other revenue sources assumed to be pledged; actual results may vary depending on market conditions, development timing, and policy decisions.
Note that the Fiscal Impact Analysis presented earlier in this report does not include any EIFD-related assumptions, so the two analyses should be read independently.
- East of Temperance: approximately $1.06 billion in cumulative EIFD revenue over the 45-year analysis period.
- South of Jensen: approximately $480 million to $595 million in cumulative EIFD revenue over the 45-year analysis period, depending on the absorption scenario.
• An EIFD would be governed by a Public Financing Authority (PFA), a separate governing body that includes members of the City Council along with members of the public. Because the City is assumed to be the sole participating taxing entity, the PFA would consist of five members: three members of the City Council and two members of the public who live or work within the district. The PFA would adopt an Infrastructure Financing Plan identifying the specific facilities to be funded, further described in Chapter 4.
• Alternatively, a portion of the General Fund surplus generated by the Project could instead be allocated to a Community Benefit Fund. This fund could be established by City Council ordinance as a restricted fund, with a portion of the estimated net General Fund surplus allocated to this fund.
Unlike an EIFD, a Community Benefit Fund would be governed directly by the City Council, without a separate governing body or state statutory framework. Note that if the City pursues an EIFD, the property tax increment revenue directed to the EIFD would reduce the General Fund net fiscal surplus reported earlier in this report, since that analysis does not assume an EIFD is in place; this analysis does not model that impact directly, and it should be evaluated separately if the City pursues either option. • The Community Benefit Fund could be used to fund infrastructure improvements, affordable housing, and programming in areas the City determines to be most in need, informed by public input. One option would be to target areas of the City that currently fall outside special districts
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 14 Introduction and Summary of Findings providing supplemental funding for municipal services, such as Services CFDs or Lighting and Landscaping Maintenance Districts (LLMDs), extending comparable benefits to those areas. See Map 4-1 in Chapter 4 for areas in the City not currently included in an existing special district. The City would retain discretion to define eligible uses and geographic boundaries for the fund, through a process that could include community engagement or a public input process.
• Given the scale of potential EIFD revenue, the City may choose to pursue an EIFD in addition to, or instead of, the Community Benefit Fund. These two approaches are not mutually exclusive, and the City could pursue either independently or both concurrently.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 15 Public Finance Analysis
2. Public Finance Analysis
Introduction
This chapter evaluates funding and financing options to cover the cost of upfront predevelopment backbone infrastructure required before development can begin in either the East of Temperance or South of Jensen subareas, and why standard land- secured financing is not available before development occurs. If an Enterprise Revenue Bond or COP lease financing is used instead, a subsidy may be required to cover debt service or lease payments in early years; a subsidy is not assumed to apply if a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) is used. This chapter estimates that subsidy amount and the timeframe for repaying it based on a scenario in which the City forms a Mello-Roos Infrastructure Community Facilities District (CFD) to impose annual special taxes on new private development in the Project. The subsidy estimate presented in this chapter is based specifically on an Enterprise Revenue Bond scenario; if COP lease financing is used instead, the actual subsidy amount, timing, or applicability may differ, as discussed further below.
Predevelopment Backbone Infrastructure
South SEDA development requires upfront backbone infrastructure, referred to as "predevelopment costs" in this study, to be constructed before development can begin in either subarea.
These costs consist of sewer main improvements only. Sewer main improvements are the trunk sewer lines and related conveyance infrastructure needed to carry wastewater from South SEDA to the City's existing sewer system; they do not include sewer tributaries, the smaller lateral lines serving individual parcels, which will instead be funded through Project-specific development impact fees established in a future nexus study, consistent with how the City funds tributary infrastructure for other new development areas.
Total predevelopment infrastructure costs are estimated at $65.9 million (2026$), based on updated City costs provided in June 2026. These estimates were prepared by the City's engineering staff and reflect current construction costs for the specific sewer main alignments required to serve South SEDA; they are summarized by subarea in Table 2-1 and detailed further in Section 2, Appendix A (Table A-1).
It is estimated that the predevelopment infrastructure will be constructed in 2029, so the costs have been escalated to 2029 dollars, using an annual 3 percent escalation factor. Total predevelopment infrastructure costs are estimated at $72.0 million in 2029 dollars. Predevelopment costs by subarea are summarized below. • East of Temperance: $18.3 million in sewer improvement costs (2029$). • South of Jensen: $53.7 million in sewer improvement costs (2029$).
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 16 Public Finance Analysis Table 2-1. Summary of Predevelopment Backbone Infrastructure Costs
Other backbone infrastructure, including streets, water, and other utilities, will also be required as phased residential and nonresidential development occurs.
This infrastructure is expected to be funded by private developers as a condition of development approval, rather than through the mechanisms discussed in this chapter, and is not addressed further in this report.
Financing Approach
Land-secured bonds, including Mello-Roos CFD bonds and assessment district bonds, represent a financing tool commonly used for public infrastructure improvements.
Lenders and investors of land-secured bonds require a minimum value-to-lien ratio, typically at least 3:1, comparing the assessed or appraised value of land and improvements within the district to the total amount of debt secured against that land.
This ratio provides a cushion in the event of default, ensuring that the district's land value would be sufficient to satisfy outstanding debt if the bonds needed to be foreclosed upon. Currently, South SEDA consists largely of undeveloped land with limited value, and this threshold cannot be met at the outset. Land-secured bonding capacity would instead be realized gradually as development occurs, improvements are constructed, and land values rise accordingly.
Pooled land-secured programs, such as the Statewide Community Infrastructure Program (SCIP) and Bond Opportunities for Land Development (BOLD), are not well suited to funding the upfront predevelopment costs for the same underlying reason. These programs pool the credit risk of many individual development projects, in different cities and at different stages of development, into a single bond issuance, which allows the pool as a whole to satisfy value-to-lien requirements even when some individual projects have limited value. However, each participating project is still evaluated at the individual project level, and Item
Annual
Escalation
East of
Temperance
S
outh of
Jensen Total
Predevelopment Costs (2026$) [1]
Sewer Improvements $16,730,000 $49, 148,000 $65,878,000 Total Predevelopment Costs $16,730,000 $49, 148,000 $65,878,000 Predevelopment Costs (2029$) [2] 3% $18, 281,000 $53,705,000 $71,986,000 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Predevelopment costs were provided by City Department of Utilities and Department of Public Works and are current as of June 2026. The City
identified that only upfront sewer costs are needed before any development can occur. The predevelopment costs exclude additional backbone infrastructure that will be needed to serve phased residential and nonresidential development and will be funded by Project developers.
Predevelopment Costs (as of June 2026)
[2] The City estimates a bond issuance in 2029. Predevelopment costs were escalated to 2029$ using an annual cost escalation rate of 3% based on the long-term average, annual inflation rate. Predevelopment costs covered by a bond issuance may vary from this estimate.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 17 Public Finance Analysis financing through these programs is generally provided at or near the building permit stage, once a project has progressed far enough to carry sufficient assessed value to qualify. Because South SEDA has not yet reached that stage, these programs are not currently available, though they could become a relevant financing tool later, as individual projects within South SEDA reach the building permit stage.
Because land-secured financing is unavailable until sufficient development has occurred, the City could instead consider a revenue-secured financing tool to fund the predevelopment costs at the outset. Revenue-secured financing is repaid from a specific, identified revenue stream rather than from land value, and is therefore not subject to a value-to-lien test. Two options are most applicable here: an Enterprise Revenue Bond, which is repaid from a dedicated revenue stream such as utility user rates and surcharges; and Certificate of Participation (COP) lease financing, in which a trustee provides upfront funding in exchange for the right to receive lease payments, with those payments funded by the City General Fund.
A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) could also directly address the upfront funding gap, and the City should pursue such opportunities to the extent possible. PPPs are collaborative agreements between government entities and private sector entities that address the financing, design, implementation, and operation of projects that serve the public, combining public oversight with private sector investment, innovation, and operational expertise. In a typical PPP, the private partner may finance, design, build, operate, and/or maintain a facility, while the public agency retains ownership and ensures the project continues to meet public needs. PPPs are often used for transportation, water and sewer systems, public buildings, and other infrastructure, particularly where shared risk and performance-based outcomes can improve efficiency and reduce public costs relative to a conventional public procurement.
Regardless of which of these upfront financing tools is ultimately used, the City could form an Infrastructure CFD alongside that initial financing. The Infrastructure CFD would impose annual special taxes on private residential and nonresidential development in South SEDA, and the resulting special tax revenue would then be applied depending on the financing tool selected. If an Enterprise Revenue Bond or COP lease financing is used, Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue could reimburse the enterprise fund or City General Fund, respectively, for amounts those funds advanced to cover Enterprise Revenue Bond debt service or COP lease payments; the special tax revenue would not fund those payments directly. If a PPP is used instead, the private partner would fund the predevelopment costs upfront using its own capital, and Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue could instead be used to
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 18 Public Finance Analysis reimburse the private partner over time, or to fund other infrastructure costs on a pay-as-you-go basis, with the specific use to be determined by the City.2 In the early years of development, this analysis estimates that Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue will not be sufficient to fully cover the annual debt service of an Enterprise Revenue Bond used to finance the predevelopment costs. A subsidy would be needed to cover that gap until special tax revenue grows enough, as development occurs, to cover debt service on its own. This estimate is based on an Enterprise Revenue Bond scenario; if COP lease financing is used instead, the actual subsidy amount, timing, or applicability may differ from what is estimated in this study. It is assumed this subsidy would not apply if a PPP or other alternative arrangement is used instead, since a private partner would bear the upfront financing risk directly rather than the City.
The City Council may wish to establish a minimum level of development within South SEDA, as a policy benchmark for reassessing financing options over time. If a PPP does not materialize, an Infrastructure CFD bond or pooled bond program, such as SCIP or BOLD, could serve as a future takeout bond, refinancing the initial Enterprise Revenue Bond or COP lease financing, once South SEDA development reaches that threshold and meets the value-to-lien requirement.
The required assessed value needed to achieve the 3:1 value-to-lien ratio, and the point at which a takeout bond could be implemented, vary by land use absorption scenario and by whether each subarea finances its own predevelopment costs individually or the subareas finance the combined predevelopment costs together.
The value-to-lien ratios for each scenario are summarized in Section 2 Appendix A (Table A-12).
If each subarea finances the predevelopment costs for that area only, the required developed property assessed value to meet a 3:1 value-to-lien ratio is an estimated $65.6 million for East of Temperance and an estimated $192.6 million for South of Jensen. These figures represent a total assessed value needed to meet the land-secured financing threshold of 3:1, although a more conservative threshold may be required, subject to consultation with the City’s municipal advisor, bond counsel, and the bond underwriting team.
For East of Temperance, the required assessed value could be reached after the development of approximately 110 single-family units (1.4 percent of buildout single-family units). For South of Jensen, the required assessed value could be reached after the development of approximately 900,000 industrial square feet (4.8 percent of all nonresidential square footage at buildout).
2 In this study, annual special taxes from an Infrastructure CFD applied to private development are modeled to escalate by two percent annually and are in effect for a 30-year term.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 19 Public Finance Analysis If the two subareas combined finance the predevelopment costs for both areas, the required developed property assessed value to meet a 3:1 value-to-lien ratio is an estimated $258.2 million (the sum of the amounts for each individual subarea). This assessed value could be reached after the combined development described above for the individual areas (approximately 110 single-family units in East of Temperance and 900,000 industrial square feet in South of Jensen). The assessed value could also be achieved by a combination of other proposed land uses.
Estimated Subsidy and Repayment Period
As discussed in the previous section, regardless of which upfront financing tool is used to finance the South SEDA predevelopment costs, an Infrastructure CFD could be formed to impose annual special taxes on private residential and nonresidential development in South SEDA. The resulting special tax revenue would be used to reimburse the City enterprise fund or General Fund, respectively, for Enterprise Revenue Bond debt service or COP lease payments. In the early years of development, special tax revenue from South SEDA private development will likely be insufficient to fully cover these annual payments, requiring a subsidy to cover the shortfall, as discussed further below. After sufficient South SEDA development has occurred to generate enough special tax revenue to cover the annual payments in full, any surplus tax revenue would be used to fully offset the accumulated subsidy.
Note that the subsidy analysis in the remainder of this chapter analyzes bond debt service only. COP lease financing has not been analyzed.
Subsidy Analysis Results
The subsidy amount and repayment period vary depending on the assumed development absorption scenario. They also vary depending on the repayment structure: whether each subarea individually repays the subsidy for its own predevelopment costs, or the two subareas jointly repay the subsidy for their combined predevelopment costs. Table 2-2 shows the subsidy repayment details for the different absorption and repayment scenarios.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 20 Public Finance Analysis As shown in Table 2-2, if each individual subarea repays its own predevelopment costs, the required subsidy includes a total of $3.2 million for East of Temperance with a subsidy period of 3 years and a repayment period of 4 years, and a range of $4.4 million for the South of Jensen High Absorption Scenario (subsidy period of 2 years) to $21.5 million for the South of Jensen Low Absorption Scenario (subsidy period of 9 years). The subsidy repayment period ranges from 3 years under the South of Jensen High Absorption Scenario to 9 years under the South of Jensen Low Absorption Scenario.
If the subareas combined repay the total predevelopment costs for both subareas, the required subsidy ranges from $7.1 million for the South of Jensen High Absorption Scenario with a subsidy period of 3 years and repayment period of 2 years to $19.5 million for the South of Jensen Low Absorption Scenario with a subsidy period of 6 years and repayment period of 5 years.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 21 Public Finance Analysis Table 2-2. Subsidy Repayment Summary
Item
East of
Temperance
South of Jensen
Low Absorption
South of Jensen
High Absorption
East of Temperance
and South of Jensen
Low Absorption
East of Temperance
and South of Jensen
High Absorption
Total Predevelopment Costs (2026$) $16,730,000 $49,148,000 $49,148,000 $65,878,000 $65,878,000 Total Predevelopment Costs (2029$) $18,281,000 $53,705,000 $53,705,000 $71,986,000 $71,986,000 Percent Change (2026$ to 2029$) 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% Bond Issuance Scenario [1]
Year Issued 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029
Bond Size $21,856,000 $64,208,000 $64,208,000 $86,064,000 $86,064,000 Bond Proceeds $18,281,000 $53,705,000 $53,705,000 $71,986,000 $71,986,000 Infrastructure CFD Max. Annual Special Tax Rates (MAST) (2026$) [2] Single Family $1,300 $1,300 $1,300 $1,300 $1,300
Multifamily $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Nonresidential $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000
Required Subsidy and Subsidy Repayment Periods [3]
Estimated Subsidy under Bond Issuance Scenario and MAST Rates $3,189,904 $21,539,744 $4,378,118 $19,542,393 $7,104,768 Subsidy Period 2030 - 2032 2030 - 2038 2030 - 2031 2030 - 2035 2030 - 2032 Total Years of Subsidy 3 9 2 6 3
Years in which South SEDA Repays Subsidy 2033 - 2036 2039 - 2047 2032 - 2034 2036 - 2040 2033 - 2034 Total Years to Repay Subsidy 4 9 3 5 2
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] See Table 2-3.
[2] Assumed to escalate annually by 2%. See Section 2 Table A-3. [3] A subsidy will be required to cover debt service on issued bonds in the early years of South SEDA before enough development has occurred to generate the special tax revenue required to pay the debt service. Beginning in the year in which sufficient tax revenue is generated from South SEDA development to cover the debt service, any tax revenue not needed for the debt service will be used to repay the subsidy until it is fully repaid. In Section 2 Table A-7 - Table A-11, the cumulative shortfall in the first highlighted row equals the total subsidy required. The second highlighted row in each table shows the year in which the subsidy is fully repaid and there is a cumulative surplus of South SEDA tax revenue over the amount needed to pay the annual debt service and repay the subsidy.
Individual Areas Repayment Combined Areas Repayment
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 22 Public Finance Analysis Subsidy Analysis Methodology
The remainder of this chapter describes the methodology used to estimate the required subsidy and the repayment period. The following steps summarize the approach used for each repayment scenario, with each step detailed in the remaining sections of this chapter.
1. Estimate the bond size and associated annual debt service required to fund the predevelopment costs.
2. Estimate a financially feasible Maximum Annual Special Tax (MAST) rate (2026$) for each different South SEDA residential and nonresidential developable land use. These tax rates are maximum feasible rates; actual tax rates could be lower, which could result in a longer subsidy repayment timeframe. Note that the MAST rates do not differ by scenario.
3. Estimate the MAST revenue generated by South SEDA private development by subarea and in total for each year from 2030 through 2058 (year 30 of a bond issued in 2029). This period represents the estimated first year of residential and nonresidential development through the last year of the assumed 30-year bond term. The MAST revenue calculations assume that the MAST rates established in step 2 escalate at a rate of two percent annually.
4. For each year, compare the required annual bond debt service (step 1) to the MAST revenue generated by South SEDA private development (step 3).
5. Determine the years in which there is a shortfall of available MAST revenue to pay the bond debt service. These are the years in which a subsidy will be needed to pay the annual debt service.
6. Determine the year in which cumulative surplus MAST revenue is sufficient to fully repay the subsidy. Once surplus MAST revenue begins to accrue, it will be applied to the outstanding subsidy balance until the subsidy is fully repaid. The repayment period depends on the rate of development and MAST surplus revenue available each year.
Predevelopment Cost Funding
As described above, if an Enterprise Revenue Bond or COP lease financing is used to finance South SEDA predevelopment costs, a South SEDA Infrastructure CFD could be formed to reimburse the enterprise fund or City General Fund, respectively, for the Enterprise Revenue Bond annual debt service or COP lease annual payments.
If a bond is issued, it would be structured so that the total proceeds equal the predevelopment costs (2029$). It is assumed that the bond would be issued in 2029 to fund the predevelopment infrastructure construction that is estimated to occur in that year. Because residential and nonresidential development is not anticipated to begin until 2030, it is assumed that the bond would be sized to include one year of capitalized interest so that the debt service payments could be deferred until 2030.
The required annual bond debt service is summarized in Table 2-3.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 23 Public Finance Analysis Table 2-3. Estimated South SEDA Bond Sizing Summary
In addition to estimating the bond size required to fund the predevelopment costs, this report also estimates the maximum bonding capacity at buildout for each subarea, detailed in Section 2, Appendix A (Table A-13 and Table A-14). This maximum bonding capacity is included for informational purposes, showing the amount of CFD bond proceeds that could be supported by each subarea at buildout.
The bonding capacity is calculated by applying MAST rates to buildout development and based on bond terms that are detailed in the Section 2 Appendix A tables referenced above. The methodology for estimating the CFD MAST rates is detailed in the next section.
South SEDA Maximum Annual Special Tax Rates
Infrastructure CFD MAST rates must be financially feasible to allow development to occur. This analysis employs a test of total taxes and assessments as a percentage of the home sales price (Two-Percent Test) to estimate feasible initial MAST residential development in South SEDA. An initial MAST rate of $10,000 per acre is established for nonresidential development. The estimated initial MAST rates are summarized below. These rates are preliminary maximum feasible rates and are assumed to escalate at a rate of two percent annually. Actual tax rates could be lower, which could result in a longer subsidy repayment timeframe.
Item Assumption
East of
Temperance
South of
Jensen To tal
Estimated Bond Proceeds $18,281,000 $53,705,000 $71,986,000 Capitalized Interest 12 months $1,311,360 $3,852,480 $5,163, 840 Bond Reserve Fund 1-yr. debt service $1,608,156 $4,724,400 $6,332, 556 Issuance Cost [1] 3.00% $655,680 $1,926,240 $2,581, 920 Total Bond Size (rounded) $21,856,000 $64,208,000 $86,064,000 Annual Debt Service (rounded) [2] $1,608,000 $4,724,000 $6,332,000 Assumptions [3]
Interest Rate 6.00%
Term 30 years
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Recent revenue bonds issued by City had issuance costs ranging from 1 to 3% of the total bond size. Issuance costs in this analysis are based on a conservative 3% assumption.
[2] Debt service for years 2-30 after first year of capitalized interest and no debt service payment. [3
] Estimated bond sizing based on conservative assumptions. The interest rate will be determined at the time of the bond sale. This analysis is based on an assumed bond term of 30 years.
Predevelopment Costs Bond Sizing (2029$)
Note: Total estimated bond proceeds are equal to 2026$ predevelopment costs escalated to 2029$. Because predevelopment costs increase annually with inflation, the total bond size grows the longer bond issuance is delayed. For example, if bonds were issued in 2026 rather than 2029, the total bond size would be approximately $78.8 million, or 92% of the amount shown here.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 24 Public Finance Analysis Maximum Annual Special Tax Rates (2026$)
• Single Family: $1,300 per unit
• Multifamily: $1,000 per unit
• Nonresidential: $10,000 per acre
The purpose of the Two-Percent Test is to ensure that current and proposed taxes and assessments do not exceed 1.7 percent of the value of the property.
The State’s Proposition 13 limited general property tax to 1 percent of the value of the property. Based on the Two-Percent Test, other bonded debt, special assessments, and other special taxes should not exceed an additional 1 percent (for a total of 2 percent) of the total value of the property. Although the industry guideline is 2 percent, EPS has used a target range of 1.7 percent to allow for fluctuations in housing values and capacity for future taxes and assessments.
This feasibility test assesses the additional special tax burden above existing taxes and assessments that residential dwelling units in South SEDA can support. The estimated MAST rates associated with a new Infrastructure CFD in South SEDA are included in this feasibility test.
Two-Percent Test Findings
Under the Two-Percent Test, total taxes and assessments as a percentage of sales price less than 1.7 percent is considered an indicator of financial feasibility.
Table 2-4 presents the total estimated taxes and assessments as a percentage of home sales price for each proposed residential prototype. Backup data used in the Two-Percent Test are included in Section 2, Appendix A (Table A-2). The total annual amount includes the following taxes and assessments:
• General property taxes (1%).
• Other ad valorem taxes (e.g., school and other General Obligation bonds). • Additional existing and proposed special taxes and assessments (e.g., existing City CFD No. 11 to fund ongoing operations and maintenance costs). • An estimate of South SEDA Infrastructure CFD annual special taxes, based on tax rates estimated to keep the Project competitive with proximate new development.
As shown, total existing and proposed taxes and assessments for Project homes for all residential land uses is approximately 1.70 percent. Under the 2 percent test, the current and proposed annual tax burden appears to be feasible for all residential land uses.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 25 Public Finance Analysis Table 2-4. Estimated Annual Taxes/Assessments as a Percentage of Sales Price (2026$)
Item Percentage Single Family Multifamily
Assumptions
Estimated Average Sales Price $525,000 $335,000
Less Homeowner Exemption ($7,000) $0
Estimated Taxable Sales Price $518,000 $335,000
Ad Valorem Taxes
General Property Tax 1.000000% $5,180 $3,350
Sanger USD [1] 0.238094% $1,233 $798
Fresno Pension Override 0.032438% $168 $109
State Center Community College [1] 0.020034% $104 $67
Total Ad Valorem Taxes 1.290566% $6,685 $4,323
Existing Special Taxes/Assessments
PACE [2] TBD TBD
Fresno Irrigation District [3] NA NA
Metropolitan Flood Assessment [4] $28 $22
Fresno Mosquito & Vector $6 $6
City Of Fresno CFD #9 [5] NA $212
City Of Fresno CFD #11 (Mello-Roos) [5] $723 NA
City Of Fresno CFD #18 (Mello-Roos) $186 $152
Total Existing Special Taxes/Assessments $943 $392
Total Existing Taxes and Assessments
Total Existing Taxes and Assessments $7,628 $4,715
Percentage of Sales Price 1.45% 1.41%
Estimated Preliminary SEDA Special Tax for Infrastructure $1,300 $1,000 Total Existing and Potential New Taxes/Assessments $8,928 $5,715 Total Taxes/Assessments as % of Sales Price [6] 1.70% 1.71% Source: City of Fresno; Fresno County; EPS.
[1] See Section 2 Table A-3 for details.
[2] PACE Programs in Fresno include the California HERO Program, CHFA CFD 2014-1 (YGRENE), and California First Fresno. Assessments are determined by factors pertaining to improvements and are based on individual projects. [3] Fresno Irrigation District contracts with the City of Fresno to provide Water Service. It is assumed that this assessment will not be levied on new development. [4] Metropolitan Flood Assessment Rates are determined by the Fresno Metropolitan Assessment Zones and are based on property type. SEDA falls entirely within Zone 1 of the Fresno Metropolitan Benefit Assessment Zones. [5] Recent maximum special tax rates for the City's Services CFD-9 and CFD-11 were obtained from the City Public Works department and used to estimate potential tax burdens. For the purpose of this analysis, the CFD-9 rate is assumed to be $212 per multifamily unit, and the CFD-11 rate is assumed to be $723 per single family unit. Actual tax rates will be determined when projects are annexed into the CFD. [6] Although the State guideline is 2%, this analysis uses a target of approximately 1.7% for evaluating feasibility to allow for additional taxes and assessments as needed. A South SEDA Services CFD is one option for the remaining tax capacity.
Residential Development
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 26 Public Finance Analysis South SEDA Maximum Annual Special Tax Revenue
The annual MAST revenue is calculated by applying the MAST rates to the annual development assumed in the absorption schedules Section 2, Appendix A (Table A-3 to Table A-6) details the calculations for East of Temperance and for both South of Jensen absorption scenarios.
Subsidy Requirement and Repayment
The required subsidy is estimated as the total shortfall in MAST revenue that the City must fund until sufficient development occurs in South SEDA to generate the required tax revenue. Section 2, Appendix A (Table A-7 to Table A-11) details the calculation of the subsidy, the years in which the subsidy is required, and the number of years required for South SEDA to fully repay the subsidy.
Calculations are provided for both the individual subareas and the combined area repayment scenarios. Further, there are two alternative analyses for the South of Jensen individual repayment scenario, one for each absorption scenario. Likewise, there are two alternative analyses for the combined subarea repayment scenario, one using the Low Absorption Scenario and the other using the High Absorption Scenario for the South of Jensen subarea.
Each of the above-referenced tables regarding the subsidy calculations include two highlighted rows. The cumulative shortfall in the first highlighted row equals the total required subsidy. The second highlighted row shows the year in which the subsidy is fully repaid and there is a cumulative surplus of South SEDA MAST revenue above the amount needed to cover annual debt service and fully repay the subsidy.
Public Finance Technical Appendices
The technical calculations used in this chapter are detailed in Section 2, Appendix A, including the data and calculations needed to estimate the required subsidy and subsidy repayment period, including the predevelopment costs, required bond size, annual bond debt service, maximum annual special tax rates, and estimated annual special tax revenue.
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 27 Fiscal Impact Analysis
3. Fiscal Impact Analysis
Introduction
As described in Chapter 1, South SEDA comprises two subareas, East of Temperance and South of Jensen, currently located in the unincorporated County and anticipated to be annexed into the City. This chapter summarizes the annual net fiscal impact of Project development on the City's General Fund at buildout under existing service levels. The analysis also estimates fiscal impacts outside the General Fund that are relevant to the City's broader fiscal condition, including Measure P sales tax revenue and Comprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) costs.
The net fiscal impacts of the proposed project are summarized in Table 3-1, with a more detailed line-item summary of the net fiscal impacts provided in Table 3-2.
The technical analysis, including data, assumptions, and detailed calculations underlying the analysis, is provided in Section 3, Appendices A through F. This analysis is based on a three-year average of the City's FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 budgets. All figures presented are shown in constant 2025 dollars.
Project Fiscal Impact Analysis Overview
At buildout, the Project comprises approximately 2,017 acres of planned development.
At buildout, the East of Temperance subarea is anticipated to accommodate 10,070 residential units, and 102,300 square feet of office and retail uses. The South of Jensen subarea includes proposed nonresidential development only, including 866,000 square feet of office and 18.0 million square feet of industrial (flex R&D) space.
The Project is anticipated to be annexed into the City, and upon annexation the Project will be served by the City’s municipal services, including the City’s Fire Department, replacing the area’s current fire service provider, the Fresno County Fire Protection District.
The annexation is anticipated to be subject to the current Property Tax Sharing Agreement between the City of Fresno and the County of Fresno. The agreement, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) approved by the Fresno County Board of Supervisors on December 13, 2024, establishes that for annexations occurring inside of SEDA within the City's Sphere of Influence (which applies to the proposed Project), property tax revenue will be allocated at 51 percent to the City and 49 percent to the County.
3 The MOU has a ten-year term from the date of final
3 Memorandum of Understanding between the City of Fresno and the County of Fresno, approved by the Fresno City Council on December 13, 2024 (File ID 24-1699). Available online:
https://fresno.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=7052304&GUID=269A327F-1B07-486C-9AED-65CB00B513A0 [accessed May 2026].
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 28 Fiscal Impact Analysis execution, with an automatic five-year extension unless either party provides written notice of its intent not to extend. In addition, the Project is anticipated to be subject to the Property Tax Allocation Agreement between the City of Fresno and the County Fire Protection District, effective August 19, 2025.4 Upon annexation to the City of Fresno and detachment from the Fresno County Fire Protection District, property tax revenues formerly allocated to the District are allocated to the City.
Under the City–Fresno County Fire Protection District Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City must continue to reimburse the District's Base Year Allocation (BYA) of property tax revenues generated from the annexed territory for a period of 10 years following annexation. The BYA is adjusted annually by up to 2.0 percent in accordance with the constitutional limitation on assessed value growth. The net fiscal impacts of the Project at buildout exclude this reimbursement amount since buildout is expected to occur after this 10-year period.
Overview of Results
Population and Employment at Buildout
The South SEDA planning area is estimated to generate a service population of approximately 29,800 residents and 24,000 ongoing, annual employees at buildout.
The Project will also generate one-time construction jobs but these estimates are not included in this study.
Annual Net General Fund Impacts at Buildout
Buildout of the Project is estimated to yield a net annual General Fund surplus of approximately $17.2 million under existing service levels, as shown in Tables 3-1 and 3-2. Both subareas in South SEDA are estimated to operate at a surplus at buildout, with East of Temperance generating an annual net fiscal surplus of approximately $8.0 million and South of Jensen generating an annual net fiscal surplus of approximately $9.3 million.
Note that during the first ten years following annexation, the City is obligated to reimburse the Fresno County Fire Protection District each year, for a total of approximately $742,800 in property tax revenue previously allocated to the district including approximately $401,500 for the East of Temperance subarea and $341,300 for South of Jensen subarea. This reimbursement obligation is not included in the net fiscal surplus reported above, since buildout is expected to occur after this 10-year period. Additional details are provided in Section 3, Table D-3.
4 Property Tax Allocation Agreement between the City of Fresno and the Fresno County Fire Protection District, effective August 19, 2025 (File ID 25-1093). Available online: https://fresno.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=7508457&GUID=E540BBC5- 34C2-433C-BF86-61581777EF4A [accessed May 2026].
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 29 Fiscal Impact Analysis Additional Annual Fiscal Impacts at Buildout
In addition to the General Fund impacts described above, this analysis estimates two additional fiscal impacts that fall outside the General Fund and are not included in the net fiscal surplus reported above: Measure P revenue and Comprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures. Both are relevant to the City's broader fiscal condition, even though neither affects the General Fund surplus directly.
Measure P is a voter-approved 0.375 percent special transactions and use tax imposed on taxable sales within the City, supporting parks, arts, and related public improvements and services. Based on estimated taxable sales generated by the Project, the Project is estimated to generate approximately $840,000 in East of Temperance and approximately $917,000 in South of Jensen (approximately $1.8 million in total) annually in Measure P revenues at buildout, as detailed in Section 3, Table B-5 and Table B-6.
CSM expenditures comprise the cost of providing landscape maintenance, street trees, and street maintenance to new development in the Project. CSM expenditures are estimated using a vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) methodology for residential and nonresidential uses. The Project is estimated to generate approximately $7.1 million annually in CSM expenditures at buildout, including $3.1 million in East of Temperance and $4.0 million in South of Jensen, as detailed in Table 3-1 and Section 3, Table C-4 through Table C-6.
Table 3-1. Summary of Annual Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (2025$)
Item
East of
Temperance
South of
Jensen Total
South SEDA Annual Fiscal Impacts at Buildout
Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts at Buildout (Rounded) Annual General Fund Revenues [1] $26,113,000 $18,989,000 $45, 102,000 Annual General Fund Expenditures $18,131,000 $9,725,000 $27, 856,000 Annual General Fund Surplus/(Deficit) $7,982,000 $9,264,000 $17, 246,000 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts at Buildout (Rounded) (plus) Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [2] $840,000 $917,000 $1, 757,000 (minus) Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (CSM) [3] $3,131,000 $3,974,000 $7, 105,000 Total Annual General Fund and Additional Impacts Surplus/(Deficit) $5,691,000 $6,207,000 $11, 898,000 Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); EPS. [1] Under the City–Fresno County Fire Protection District Property Tax Allocation Agreement (August 19, 2025), the City is required to reimburse the District 100 percent of the Base Year Allocation of property tax revenues for a period of 10 years following annexation, with up to a 2 percent annual increase.
After the 10th year following annexation, the City retains the Fire District property tax allocation, which is reflected in this analysis as buildout is estimated to occur after this time frame. See Table D-3 for the estimated property tax revenue reimbursement schedule. [2] Measure P is a voter-approved 0.375% citywide sales tax passed in 2018. This revenue source is a special tax and does not flow to the City's General Fund but is used to fund Fresno's parks. See more details in Appendix B. [3] Comprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures represent the estimated cost of providing Landscape, Street Trees, and Street Maintenance.
These costs fall outside the General Fund and are estimated using a VMT metric by land use category. See more details in Appendix C.
Buildout
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 30 Fiscal Impact Analysis Table 3-2. Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts at Buildout
Item
East of
Temperance
South of
Jensen Total
South SEDA Annual Fiscal Impacts at Buildout
Annual General Fund Revenues [1]
Property Tax $15,278,000 $8,466,000 $23,744,000
VLF Swap $7,161,000 $5,167,000 $12,328,000
Sales Tax $2,241,000 $2,445,000 $4,686,000
Prop. 172 Sales Tax $56,000 $61,000 $117,000
Business License $22,000 $2,314,000 $2,336,000
Franchise Fees $884,000 $350,000 $1,234,000
Other Taxes and Fees $327,000 $129,000 $456,000
Cannabis $144,000 $57,000 $201,000
Annual General Fund Revenues (Rounded) $26,113,000 $18,989,000 $45,102,000 Annual General Fund Expenditures [2]
General Government $1,283,000 $508,000 $1,791,000
Economic Development $94,000 $37,000 $131,000
Finance $289,000 $115,000 $404,000
Fire $3,494,000 $887,000 $4,381,000
Animal Center $275,000 $109,000 $384,000
Capital Projects $191,000 $76,000 $267,000
General Services $79,000 $31,000 $110,000
Information Services $11,000 $4,000 $15,000
PARCS $788,000 $312,000 $1,100,000
Personnel $302,000 $119,000 $421,000
Planning & Development $693,000 $274,000 $967,000
Police $9,560,000 $6,829,000 $16,389,000
Public Utilities $88,000 $35,000 $123,000
Public Works $984,000 $389,000 $1,373,000
Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $18,131,000 $9,725,000 $27,856,000 Annual Net General Fund Surplus/Deficit (Rounded) $7,982,000 $9,264,000 $17,246,000 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts at Buildout (Rounded) (plus) Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [3] $840,000 $917,000 $1,757,000 (minus) Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (CSM) [4] $3,131,000 $3,974,000 $7,105,000 Total Annual Net General Fund and Additional Impacts Surplus/(Deficit) $5,691,000 $6,207,000 $11,898,000 Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); EPS. [1] See Appendix B for more details regarding revenue estimates. [2] See Appendix C for more details regarding expenditure estimates. [3] Measure P is a voter-approved 0.375% citywide sales tax passed in 2018. This revenue source is a special tax and does not flow to the City's General Fund but is used to fund Fresno's parks. See more details in Appendix B. [4] Comprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures represent the estimated cost of providing Landscape, Street Trees, and Street Maintenance.
These costs fall outside the General Fund and are estimated using a VMT metric by land use category. See more details in Appendix C.
Buildout
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 31 Fiscal Impact Analysis Methodology and Assumptions
This section describes the methodology and assumptions used to estimate the annual net fiscal impact of the Project on the City's General Fund at buildout, including assumptions related to municipal service delivery, land development, and General Fund budgeting.
This analysis evaluates whether Project revenues will adequately cover the City's cost of providing General Fund services (e.g., police, fire, parks, general government). The analysis also includes a preliminary estimate of CSM costs, covering landscaping, street tree, and street maintenance, which fall outside the General Fund and would likely be funded through a separate City mechanism.
This analysis does not address activities budgeted in other City Governmental Funds or Proprietary Funds, nor does it include an evaluation of capital facilities or funding of capital facilities needed to serve new development. The analysis also excludes any services that may be funded privately. The City may require annexation into CFDs to fund ongoing infrastructure maintenance or municipal services associated with new development, although none is assumed given the Project’s estimated annual net fiscal surplus.
General Assumptions
This analysis follows the general approach and methodology developed in collaboration with City staff as part of a 2023 General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis EPS prepared for the City. Similar to the 2023 approach, the current analysis is based on a three-year average of General Fund revenues and expenditures obtained from the City’s adopted budgets. This analysis uses budgets from FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26, and other general assumptions developed for the 2023 fiscal impact analysis.
EPS consulted the City’s budget documents to develop forecasting methodologies for specific revenues and expenditures affected by new development. This analysis also used information from the following sources: County Assessor and Auditor-Controller, State Department of Finance (DOF), State Board of Equalization (BOE), the U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS), the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and subscription-based data sources (e.g., CoStar).
Each assumption is estimated based on current State of California legislation and current City practices. Therefore, the analysis reflects the current State-local fiscal relationship as it exists at the time the analysis was completed. Future changes by either State legislation or City practices may affect the revenues and expenditures estimated in this analysis. All costs and revenues are shown in constant 2025 dollars.
General fiscal and demographic assumptions are detailed in Section 3, Tables A-2 through A-5.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 32 Fiscal Impact Analysis The actual fiscal impacts of new development will vary from those presented in this analysis if development plans or other assumptions (e.g., assessed valuations, sales tax revenue assumptions, service levels) change from those presented in this analysis.
General Fund Revenue and Expenditure-Estimating Assumptions This analysis considers only discretionary General Fund revenues that will be generated by the Project. Offsetting revenues, which are General Fund revenues that are dedicated to offset the costs of specific General Fund department functions, are accounted for in this analysis. Departmental costs funded by offsetting revenues or not affected by development are also accounted for in this analysis. Calculations to estimate annual General Fund revenues, net of offsetting revenues, are shown in Section 3, Table B-1. Calculations to estimate existing annual expenditures and net of offsetting revenues, are shown in Section 3, Tables C-1 and C-2.
Development Assumptions
Listed below are brief summaries of land use and other development-related assumptions. • Land Use: The Fiscal Impact Analysis evaluates Project land uses at buildout by each subarea. As summarized in Table 1-1, the East of Temperance subarea is anticipated to comprise 10,070 residential units, 6,800 square feet of office space, 20,500 square feet of neighborhood-serving retail space, and 75,000 square feet of community-serving retail space. The South of Jensen subarea is anticipated to comprise approximately 866,000 square feet of office, and 18.0 million square feet of industrial (flex R&D). • Resident Estimates: East of Temperance is the only subarea with proposed residential development and is estimated to generate a residential population of approximately 29,800 new residents at buildout. The residential population is calculated using an assumed vacancy rate to estimate occupied residential units, and then applying an average persons-per-household (PPH) factor, as detailed in Section 3, Table A-2.
• Employee Estimates: The East of Temperance subarea is estimated to support approximately 225 employees, while the South of Jensen subarea is estimated to support approximately 23,700 employees, for a total of about 24,000 ongoing, annual employees. This analysis estimates employees and uses that estimate as a proxy for jobs. Employee estimates are calculated by applying a 5 percent vacancy rate to nonresidential development to estimate occupied building square feet, then dividing by employee density factors for each nonresidential land use, as detailed in Section 3, Table A-2 and Table A-5. • Persons-Served: In estimating certain annual revenues and expenditures (service demands) related to the Project, EPS developed a “persons-served” population estimate to approximate the impacts of an employee relative to a
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 33 Fiscal Impact Analysis resident. EPS used a factor of about 0.5 employees plus all residents to derive the Project’s persons-served population, based on the service population estimates presented in Section 3, Table A-2. • Project Assessed Value: The assessed value per square foot is based on recently-built comparable single-family residential, multifamily, retail, office, and industrial (flex R&D) development in and proximate to the City. The Project’s estimated total assessed value is provided in Section 3, Table D-2.
Revenue-Estimating Methodology
EPS used either a marginal-revenue case-study approach or an average-revenue approach to estimate Project-related revenues.
The marginal-revenue case-study approach simulates actual revenue generation resulting from new development. Case studies used in this analysis are discussed in greater detail later in this section.
The average-revenue approach uses the City's FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 budgeted General Fund revenue amounts, adjusted to 2025 dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), on a citywide per-persons-served basis to forecast revenues derived from estimated residents and employees of the Project.5 Revenue sources not expected to increase because of development are excluded from this analysis. These sources of revenue are not affected by development because they are either one-time revenue sources not guaranteed to be available in the future or there is no direct relation between increased growth and increased revenue.
A listing of all included City revenue sources and the corresponding estimating procedure used to forecast future new development revenues is shown in Section 3, Table B-1 and Table B-2. At buildout, the Project is estimated to generate approximately $45.1 million in annual General Fund revenues, of which approximately $26.1 million is generated from East of Temperance and approximately $19.0 million is generated from South of Jensen. Property tax is the largest revenue source, at approximately $23.7 million, or 52.6 percent of total General Fund revenues, followed by property tax in lieu of vehicle license fees (VLF Swap) at approximately $12.3 million, or 27.3 percent, and sales tax at approximately $4.7 million, or 10.4 percent. The remaining revenues are derived from Proposition 172 sales tax, business license tax, franchise fees, and other taxes and fees.
5 A per-persons-served basis for estimating revenues is used to take into account that businesses (and their employees) have a fiscal impact on many City revenues but at a lower level than residential development’s impact.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 34 Fiscal Impact Analysis Property Tax (and VLF Swap) Case Study
Estimated annual property tax revenues resulting from development in the East of Temperance and South of Jensen are presented in Section 3, Table B-3 and Table B-4 for each subarea. Under California law, property taxes are levied at a base rate of one percent of assessed value. This tax is collected by the County and distributed among local taxing entities according to the Assembly Bill 8 (AB 8) property tax allocation system. The City’s share of this 1-percent tax allocated to the City varies by Tax Rate Area (TRA) and is influenced by factors such as ERAF adjustments and relevant property tax sharing agreements associated with annexations. As described previously, property tax revenue generated by the Project is allocated 51 percent to the City and 49 percent to the County, pursuant to the Property Tax Sharing Agreement MOU approved by the Fresno County Board of Supervisors on December 13, 2024. To be consistent with the City’s budget data, the estimated assessed values for new development land uses are assumed to remain static in 2025-dollar values—real growth in assessed values is not estimated.
The City’s assumed property tax share is derived from the Project’s total assessed value, the average post Education Revenue Augmentation Fund (ERAF) property tax allocation share of the 1-percent ad valorem property tax for the applicable TRA, and the terms of the current property tax sharing agreement between the City and County, as shown in Section 3, Tables D-1 and D-2.
Fire Service Detachment and Property Tax Allocation
The Project site is currently within the service area of the Fresno County Fire Protection District. Upon annexation to the City, the Project area will detach from the District, and fire protection services will be provided by the City Fire Department.
This analysis assumes annexation occurs in FY 2029-30, with reimbursement payments beginning in FY 2030-31 and increasing annually by 2 percent. The estimated reimbursement schedule and cumulative reimbursement obligation for East of Temperance and South of Jensen are summarized in Section 3, Table D-3.
Property Tax in Lieu of Vehicle License Fees
A formula provided by the State Controller’s Office was used to forecast Property Tax in Lieu of Vehicle License Fees (PTIL VLF), which are calculated by applying the percentage increase of the City’s assessed value resulting from the Project to the City’s current State allocation of PTIL VLF. This calculation is shown in Section 3, Table B-3 and Table B-4 in Appendix B.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 35 Fiscal Impact Analysis Sales Tax Case Study
Sales tax revenues are based on taxable sales generated in the City and the Bradley-Burns 1 percent local sales tax rate. This analysis also estimates revenue generated through the City's Measure P sales tax rate. Measure P revenue is shown separately and is not included in the General Fund revenue totals described above. Estimated sales tax revenue to the City is summarized in Section 3, Table B-5.
EPS estimated taxable sales generated by South SEDA planning area using a combination of methodologies applicable to the proposed land uses in South SEDA. Residential taxable sales are derived from household and visitor-generated spending, while nonresidential taxable sales are estimated based on worker- generated spending, onsite retail sales, visitor-generated spending, and business- to-business taxable transactions as detailed in Section 3, Table B-6 and Table B-7.
Taxable Household Retail Spending (New Project Residents) Household spending represents taxable retail sales attributable to the estimated occupied households in the East of Temperance subarea. These estimates are derived by applying total household taxable retail spend as a percent of income to estimated occupied household incomes for proposed residential units. As indicated in Section 3, Table A-4, household income estimates are calculated based on housing cost assumptions and affordability standard that assumes housing expenditures represent 30 percent of household income. EPS estimated total household taxable retail spending as a share of household income based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey. Of total taxable expenditures, 75 percent are assumed to be captured by retailers located in Fresno, and the City’s General Fund receives one percent of taxable sales. The remaining sales tax revenue is allocated to the State, Fresno County, and voter- approved measures (such as Measure P, which collects additional sales tax revenues for parks-related uses and does not flow into the General Fund), as shown in Section 3, Table B-6.
Visitor-Generated Retail Sales (New Project Residents and Employees) This category captures retail spending by visitors to East of Temperance and South of Jensen — for example, spending on meals and incidentals by visitors to office uses in South of Jensen. This calculation applies a $69 daily visitor spending amount to the annual hotel room night generation assumptions shown in Section 3, Table B-6 and Table B-7 to arrive at the total annual visitor-generated taxable retail sales for each land use. A 90 percent capture rate is applied; the captured sales value is then multiplied by 1 percent to derive General Fund sales tax and 0.375 percent to derive Measure P revenues.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 36 Fiscal Impact Analysis Worker-Generated Retail Sales (New Project Employees)
Worker-generated retail sales capture the spending of estimated employees in South SEDA, as shown in Section 3, Table A-2. A weekly taxable retail spend per worker based on International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) data (inflated to 2025 dollars and adjusted based on Fresno salaries for each occupation category) is applied to the worker counts, and a higher 90 percent capture rate is applied, as the majority of these sales are assumed to be made near work locations during employee outings (e.g., lunch or errands) as part of their commute. This captured employee retail spending is multiplied by 48 working weeks to arrive at an annual number, to which the same sales tax rates mentioned previously are applied.
Direct Annual Taxable Sales from Retail Uses
Neighborhood and community-serving retail in the East of Temperance subarea will generate taxable retail sales in excess of taxable sales generated from estimated residents (household spending) and employees (worker-generated), as detailed in Section 3, Table B-7. That is, consumers outside of the Project will purchase taxable goods and services from the Project’s onsite retail outlets. Estimates are derived by taking average taxable retail sales per square foot by retail category and multiplying by the percent taxable by retail center type. A “market support adjustment” factor is applied to these values to account for any retail sales cannibalization that might occur. Refer to Section 3, Table D-5 for details regarding the assumptions for neighborhood and community- serving retail taxable sales per square foot. Refer to Section 3, Table B-7 for estimated annual taxable sales from onsite retail development of the Project.
Business-to-Business Taxable Sales
Business-to-business taxable sales represent transactions between businesses that are subject to sales tax (e.g., wholesale sales, business consulting sales). This analysis applies the assumptions derived from the City 2023 General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis and estimates business-to-business taxable sales at $10 per square foot of the estimated occupied building square feet as indicated in Section 3, Table B-7.
Proposition 172 Sales Tax
The one-half cent sales tax imposed by Proposition 172 provides public safety services funding to cities and counties. This sales tax is collected on a countywide basis and allocated principally to the County, with a small portion of revenue allocated to incorporated cities in the County. This revenue source is used to fund police and fire services in the City. Estimated revenue from the City’s share of the County’s half-cent sales tax for public safety is shown in Section 3, Tables B-6 and B-7.
All Other Revenues
The remaining General Fund revenues that are estimated to increase with private development in the Project include Business License tax, Franchise Fees, Other Taxes and Fees, and Cannabis revenues. All revenues are estimated on either a per-service population or per-employee basis (as described in Section 3, Table B-2). Business
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 37 Fiscal Impact Analysis License revenues are estimated based on a per-employee basis since the City collects this tax on businesses. All remaining revenues are estimated based on a per-person- served basis. Franchise Fees are collected from various utilities and services operating in the City, Cannabis revenues are generated from permit applications and taxes on production and sales of recreational cannabis, and the Other Taxes and Fees item is comprised of miscellaneous items that do not fit into any other category and are expected to increase along with increases in City service population.
Expenditure-Estimating Methodology
Expenditure estimates are based on a three-year average of the City’s FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 budgets, adjusted to 2025 dollars using CPI. General Fund expenditures are forecasted using an average-cost approach, which uses the three-year average budgeted expenditures on a citywide per-persons-served or per capita basis to forecast expenditures required to serve new development.
A listing of all General Fund expenditures and the corresponding estimating procedure used to forecast future Project expenditures is shown in Section 3, Table C-1. A summary of estimated annual expenditures required to serve the Project at buildout is provided in Section 3, Table C-2.
Average-Cost Expenditures
All City General Fund expenditures are estimated using an average cost multiplier, except for fire and police expenditures, which are estimated using case-study assumptions based on nonresidential service demand and employee-based cost factors. Certain City General Fund department expenditures (e.g., general government, economic development) include an expenditure multiplier adjustment of 75 percent to account for fixed costs not expected to increase proportionally with new development.
Police and Fire Case Study
Fire and police expenditures are estimated using a case-study approach rather than an average-cost multiplier to reflect the differing service demands of residential and non- residential development. Consistent with the methodology established in the 2023 General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis prepared by EPS, net variable Fire Department and Police Department expenditures are allocated between residential and nonresidential land uses based on each department's distribution of average annual calls for service. The resulting residential and nonresidential expenditure allocations are then divided by the applicable service area populations to derive a cost per resident and a cost per employee, which are applied to the Project's estimated resident and employee populations at buildout. The Fire Department service area population consists of population and employment totals for the incorporated city and county islands, while the Police Department service area population consists of the incorporated city only. Refer to Section 3, Table C-3 for details regarding annual Project-related fire and police costs.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 38 Fiscal Impact Analysis Comprehensive Street Maintenance Case Study
CSM expenditures comprise the cost of providing landscape maintenance, street trees, and street maintenance. These costs fall outside the City's General Fund and are evaluated separately. CSM expenditures are estimated using a VMT-based case- study methodology similar to the approach used in the 2023 General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis EPS prepared for the City, incorporating updated assumptions provided through discussions with City staff and Kittelson & Associates. VMT factors are applied to the Project's estimated annual VMT generation by land use category to estimate Project-related CSM costs at buildout. Refer to Section 3, Table C-4 through Table C-6 for details regarding annual Project-related CSM costs.
Project Fiscal Impact Analysis During Subsidy Period
If the City finances predevelopment costs through bond-type financing, a subsidy may be required during the years the Infrastructure CFD special tax revenue is insufficient to fully reimburse the City for amounts advanced to cover debt service, as described in Chapter 2. This section presents the City's estimated annual net fiscal impact during that period, for each subarea and absorption scenario. If COP lease financing or other non-bond financing is used instead, the subsidy amount and timing described in Chapter 2 may differ from the estimates below. This subsidy would not apply if a PPP or other alternative arrangement is used instead.
The initial subsidy year is 2030 in each subarea and across all scenarios. The final subsidy year varies by subarea and absorption scenario:
• East of Temperance: 2032
• South of Jensen, Low Absorption Scenario: 2038
• South of Jensen, High Absorption Scenario: 2031
• Combined Subareas, Low Absorption Scenario: 2035
• Combined Subareas, High Absorption Scenario: 2032
Annual Net General Fund Impacts During Subsidy Period
This study estimates an annual net General Fund surplus for each subarea and scenario in the initial year of the subsidy period (2030), and that net General Fund surplus continues to grow by the final subsidy year:
• East of Temperance: This subarea is estimated to result in a net General Fund surplus of $87,000 in 2030, which increases to a net General Fund surplus of $562,000 by the final subsidy year (2032).
• South of Jensen: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $228,000 initially (2030), increasing to $2.0 million by the final subsidy year (2038).
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 39 Fiscal Impact Analysis Under the High Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $903,000 initially (2030), increasing to $1.8 million by the final subsidy year (2031).
• Combined Subareas: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $312,000 initially (2030), increasing to $4.8 million by the final subsidy year (2035). Under the High Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $990,000 initially (2030), increasing to $3.3 million by the final subsidy year (2032).
Additional Annual Fiscal Impacts During Subsidy Period
In addition to the General Fund impacts described above, this analysis estimates total annual net impacts inclusive of Measure P revenue and CSM costs. In addition, because the subsidy period falls within the first ten years following annexation, these additional impacts also account for Fresno County Fire Protection District reimbursement costs, which do not apply at buildout. Total annual net impacts by subarea and absorption scenario are as follows:
• East of Temperance: This subarea is estimated to result in a net fiscal surplus of $28,000 initially (2030), which increases to $365,000 by the final subsidy year (2032).
• South of Jensen: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $113,000 initially (2030), increasing to $1.3 million by the final subsidy year (2038).
Under the High Absorption Scenario, this subarea is estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $542,000 initially (2030), increasing to $1.1 million by the final subsidy year (2031).
• Combined Subareas: Under the Low Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $137,000 initially (2030), increasing to $4.2 million by the final subsidy year (2035). Under the High Absorption Scenario, both subareas combined are estimated to result in an annual net General Fund surplus of $570,000 initially (2030), increasing to $2.1 million by the final subsidy year (2032).
It is important to note that the City's General Fund is one of several funding sources covering CSM expenditures but, for the purpose of this study, the net fiscal impacts provided below show CSM expenditures fully netted against the net General Fund surplus.
A summary of annual net General Fund and additional impacts by subarea and scenario is provided in Table 3-3. Full annual detail for each subarea and scenario is provided in Section 3, Tables F-1 through F-5.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 40 Fiscal Impact Analysis Fiscal Impact Analysis Technical Appendices
The technical calculations used in this analysis are shown in Section 3, Appendices A through F (Tables A-1 through F-5):
• Appendix A estimates the Project service population and indicates the general assumptions used in this analysis.
• Appendix B identifies the projected revenues by the Project, including General Fund revenues and additional revenues generated through Measure P. • Appendix C details the estimated expenditures of providing General Fund services to the Project and additional CSM services not financed by the General Fund.
• Appendix D shows the projected assessed value of the Project, which serves as the basis for calculating property tax revenues. In addition, this appendix provides detail on the Assembly Bill 8 property tax allocation assumptions and the market assumptions used to estimate taxable sales and assessed values associated with nonresidential development.
• Appendix E provides comparable market data, valuation assumptions, and supporting calculations used to estimate assessed values for the Project’s proposed single-family residential, multifamily residential, office, retail, and industrial (flex R&D) land uses.
• Appendix F summarizes the annual net General Fund and additional fiscal impacts aligned with the subsidy period described in Chapter 2.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 41 Fiscal Impact Analysis Table 3-3. Summary of Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts Aligned with Subsidy Period (2025$)
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 42 Community Benefit Analysis
4. Community Benefit Analysis
Introduction
The City Council requested that EPS evaluate the feasibility of forming an EIFD to fund backbone infrastructure in the Project. This chapter also evaluates a Community Benefit Fund alternative, under which City Council could consider allocating a portion of the General Fund surplus generated by Project development, as described in Chapter 3, to a restricted fund.
In addition to providing funding for Project infrastructure, both an EIFD and a Community Benefit Fund are funding tools that could allow the City to direct revenue generated by South SEDA development toward broader community benefits, such as infrastructure, affordable housing, and programming that may not otherwise be funded. This chapter summarizes the results of the EIFD Analysis and presents the Community Benefit Fund alternative.
EIFD Funding Analysis
Overview of Tax Increment Financing
Tax increment financing (TIF) captures the increase in property tax revenue, or "tax increment," generated by growth in assessed property values within a designated district. These revenues may be used to fund public infrastructure and other eligible improvements that support development and economic growth within the district.
California Government Code Sections 53398.50 through 53398.88 (EIFD Law) authorize local agencies to establish EIFDs and dedicate a portion of future property tax increment revenues to finance eligible public improvements.
Participating taxing entities may contribute all or a portion of their share of future tax increment revenues generated within the district.
EIFD revenues may be used on a pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) basis or pledged to support debt financing. Eligible uses include the acquisition, construction, improvement, and rehabilitation of public capital facilities and infrastructure with a useful life of at least 15 years, affordable housing, and certain maintenance and repair costs.
Land Use and Absorption Assumptions
This analysis uses the same land use program and absorption scenarios described in Chapter 1, including the Low and High Absorption Scenarios for the South of Jensen subarea. Total buildout of the land uses included in this tax increment analysis extends beyond 2075; however, only development occurring within the
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 43 Community Benefit Analysis
45-year EIFD term (assumed to end in FY 2074-75) is included in the revenue estimates described in this study. Assessed value attributable to development occurring in 2075 and beyond is excluded.
Estimated revenues are based on development in each subarea; however, any future EIFD could encompass all or a portion of the SEDA planning area and may include additional, fewer, or differently configured project areas or subareas. The subareas evaluated in this analysis are intended solely for analytical purposes and do not represent a recommended district or project area configuration.
Key EIFD Analysis Assumptions
Table 4-1 summarizes the key assumptions used in the EIFD analysis, including the EIFD term, public agency participation, revenues pledged, contribution percentage, property tax allocation assumptions, and development assessed value assumptions.
Revenue projections assume a 45-year EIFD term commencing in FY 2029-30, the City as the sole participating taxing entity, and a contribution of 100 percent of the City's property tax increment revenues generated by each subarea. No other revenue sources are assumed to be pledged. Note that the fiscal impact analysis results presented in Chapter 3 do not include any allocation of property tax revenues to an EIFD.
The actual terms of any EIFD formed for South SEDA, including the participating taxing entities, revenue source, and contribution rate, would be determined by the City and may vary from the assumptions presented here.
Estimated EIFD Revenues
This analysis estimates that between approximately $1.54 billion and $1.65 billion in cumulative EIFD revenue (real dollars) could be generated within the South SEDA planning area over the 45-year analysis period, depending on the absorption scenario evaluated for the South of Jensen subarea.
Of this total, approximately $1.06 billion is attributable to development in the East of Temperance subarea, while $480 million to $595 million is attributable to development in the South of Jensen subarea, depending on the absorption scenario. These estimates are based on assumptions described above; actual results may vary from these projections depending on market conditions, development timing, and policy decisions.
Refer to Table 4-2 for a summary of cumulative EIFD revenues by subarea and absorption scenario, including corresponding net present value estimates calculated using 3 percent and 4 percent discount rates.
Table 4-3 presents a detailed breakdown of projected annual and cumulative EIFD revenues over the 45-year EIFD term, segmented by subarea and absorption scenario.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 44 Community Benefit Analysis Table 4-1. General Assumptions
Table 4-2. Cumulative EIFD Revenues by Area and Scenario (in $1,000s)
Item Assumption
EIFD Revenue Assumptions [1]
Base Year FY 2029-30
EIFD Term 45 years
Participating Taxing Entity(ies) City of Fresno
Revenue(s) Pledged Property Tax
Percent of Tax Increment Pledged 100%
Existing Assessed Value Growth Assumption [2] 2.00%
New Development Price Growth Assumption 3.00%
EIFD Administration Cost (% of City Share of Revenues) 5.00% City Post-ERAF Property Tax Share Rates [3]
East of Temperance 30.86%
South of Jensen 23.70%
Assessed Value Assumptions
Base Assessed Values (2029$) [4]
East of Temperance $21,282,000
South of Jensen $37,086,000
Total SEDA Base Property Value $58,368,000
New Development Assessed Values
Residential Development
Single Family
Neighborhood Residential $525,000 / unit
Multifamily
Community Town Center $335,000 / unit
Mixed Residential $335,000 / unit
Neighborhood Town Center $335,000 / unit
Nonresidential Development
Office
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) $175 / sq. ft.
Office $175 / sq. ft.
Retail
Community Town Center $300 / sq. ft.
Neighborhood Town Center $300 / sq. ft.
Industrial
Industrial - Flex R&D $190 / sq. ft.
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[4] Escalates FY 2025-26 equalized roll values by 2 percent annually to arrive at FY 2029-30 estimates. [2] Assumes Prop. 13 annual growth cap of 2 percent and excludes any additional growth related to reassessment from turnover as a conservative approach.
[3] Values shown represent the weighted average percentage allocation of the 1% ad valorem property tax across parcels in each subarea, after applying the percentage split established in the 2024 Fresno-County Tax Sharing-Agreement Memorandum of Understanding for SEDA. [1] For the purpose of this initial analysis, revenue projections assume a 45-year EIFD term commencing upon formation. The City is assumed as the sole participating taxing entity and would contribute 100 percent of the City's property tax increment. Projections exclude other potential revenue sources (e.g., Property Tax in Lieu of VLF).
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 45 Community Benefit Analysis Table 4-3. Projected EIFD Revenues by Year (Real Dollars and 2026$)
EIFD Year Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative Annual Cum ulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Base Year FY 2029-30 - - - - - - - - - -
1 FY 2030-31 $1,248 $1,248 $1,670 $1, 670 $1,670 $1,670 $2,918 $2,918 $2,918 $2,918 2 FY 2031-32 $175,778 $177,026 $254,124 $255, 795 $976,438 $978,109 $429,902 $432,820 $1,152,216 $1,155,134 3 FY 2032-33 $626,679 $803,705 $508,872 $764, 666 $1,989,615 $2,967,724 $1,135,551 $1,568,371 $2,616,294 $3,771,428 4 FY 2033-34 $1,217,269 $2,020,974 $776,154 $1, 540,820 $3,052,815 $6,020,539 $1,993,423 $3,561,794 $4,270,084 $8,041,513 5 FY 2034-35 $1,993,247 $4,014,221 $1,056,444 $2, 597,264 $4,167,931 $10,188,469 $3,049,691 $6,611,485 $6,161,178 $14,202,691 6 FY 2035-36 $2,904,760 $6,918,981 $1,350,233 $3, 947,497 $5,336,921 $15,525,390 $4,254,993 $10,866,478 $8,241,681 $22,444,372 7 FY 2036-37 $4,169,583 $11,088,564 $1,669,597 $5, 617,094 $6,573,378 $22,098,768 $5,839,180 $16,705,658 $10,742,961 $33,187,333 8 FY 2037-38 $5,576,865 $16,665,430 $1,992,152 $7, 609,246 $7,856,489 $29,955,258 $7,569,018 $24,274,676 $13,433,355 $46,620,687 9 FY 2038-39 $7,273,000 $23,938,430 $2,329,783 $9, 939,030 $9,199,763 $39,155,021 $9,602,784 $33,877,460 $16,472,763 $63,093,451 10 FY 2039-40 $9,046,972 $32,985,402 $2,683,051 $12, 622,080 $10,605,436 $49,760,457 $11,730,023 $45,607,483 $19,652,408 $82,745,859 11 FY 2040-41 $10,899,474 $43,884,876 $3,052,535 $15, 674,615 $10,819,215 $60,579,671 $13,952,008 $59,559,491 $21,718,688 $104,464,547 12 FY 2041-42 $12,807,934 $56,692,810 $3,452,244 $19, 126,858 $11,050,681 $71,630,352 $16,260,178 $75,819,668 $23,858,615 $128,323,162 13 FY 2042-43 $14,487,180 $71,179,990 $3,856,243 $22, 983,101 $11,273,365 $82,903,717 $18,343,423 $94,163,091 $25,760,545 $154,083,707 14 FY 2043-44 $16,136,800 $87,316,789 $4,278,320 $27, 261,421 $11,500,502 $94,404,220 $20,415,120 $114,578,211 $27,637,302 $181,721,009 15 FY 2044-45 $17,860,172 $105,176,961 $4,719,138 $31, 980,560 $11,732,183 $106,136,403 $22,579,310 $137,157,521 $29,592,354 $211,313,364 16 FY 2045-46 $19,659,993 $124,836,954 $5,179,379 $37, 159,939 $11,968,497 $118,104,899 $24,839,373 $161,996,893 $31,628,490 $242,941,854 17 FY 2046-47 $21,539,051 $146,376,005 $5,675,300 $42, 835,239 $12,225,083 $130,329,983 $27,214,351 $189,211,244 $33,764,135 $276,705,988 18 FY 2047-48 $23,500,230 $169,876,235 $6,176,844 $49, 012,083 $12,471,255 $142,801,238 $29,677,074 $218,888,318 $35,971,485 $312,677,473 19 FY 2048-49 $25,090,130 $194,966,365 $6,700,010 $55, 712,093 $12,722,350 $155,523,588 $31,790,140 $250,678,458 $37,812,481 $350,489,954 20 FY 2049-50 $25,593,181 $220,559,546 $7,245,578 $62, 957,670 $12,978,468 $168,502,056 $32,838,759 $283,517,217 $38,571,649 $389,061,602 21 FY 2050-51 $26,106,293 $246,665,839 $7,814,354 $70, 772,024 $13,239,707 $181,741,763 $33,920,647 $317,437,863 $39,346,000 $428,407,602 22 FY 2051-52 $26,629,667 $273,295,506 $8,425,196 $79, 197,220 $13,524,195 $195,265,958 $35,054,862 $352,492,725 $40,153,862 $468,561,464 23 FY 2052-53 $27,163,508 $300,459,013 $9,043,276 $88, 240,496 $13,796,349 $209,062,308 $36,206,784 $388,699,509 $40,959,857 $509,521,321 24 FY 2053-54 $27,708,026 $328,167,040 $9,687,154 $97, 927,649 $14,073,946 $223,136,254 $37,395,180 $426,094,689 $41,781,973 $551,303,294 25 FY 2054-55 $28,263,435 $356,430,474 $10,357,749 $108, 285,398 $14,357,096 $237,493,350 $38,621,184 $464,715,873 $42,620,530 $593,923,824 26 FY 2055-56 $28,829,951 $385,260,426 $11,056,013 $119, 341,411 $14,645,908 $252,139,257 $39,885,964 $504,601,837 $43,475,859 $637,399,683 27 FY 2056-57 $29,407,798 $414,668,224 $11,803,820 $131, 145,231 $14,961,391 $267,100,648 $41,211,618 $545,813,455 $44,369,189 $681,768,872 28 FY 2057-58 $29,997,202 $444,665,426 $12,560,812 $143, 706,043 $15,262,289 $282,362,937 $42,558,014 $588,371,469 $45,259,491 $727,028,363 29 FY 2058-59 $30,598,395 $475,263,821 $13,348,522 $157, 054,565 $15,569,205 $297,932,141 $43,946,917 $632,318,386 $46,167,599 $773,195,962 30 FY 2059-60 $31,211,610 $506,475,431 $14,168,030 $171, 222,595 $15,882,259 $313,814,400 $45,379,641 $677,698,027 $47,093,869 $820,289,832 31 FY 2060-61 $31,837,091 $538,312,522 $15,020,455 $186, 243,050 $16,201,574 $330,015,975 $46,857,546 $724,555,573 $48,038,665 $868,328,497 32 FY 2061-62 $32,475,081 $570,787,603 $15,931,172 $202, 174,223 $16,551,499 $346,567,474 $48,406,253 $772,961,825 $49,026,579 $917,355,076 33 FY 2062-63 $33,125,830 $603,913,433 $16,853,414 $219, 027,636 $16,884,199 $363,451,673 $49,979,244 $822,941,069 $50,010,029 $967,365,105 34 FY 2063-64 $33,789,595 $637,703,028 $17,812,157 $236, 839,794 $17,223,553 $380,675,226 $51,601,752 $874,542,821 $51,013,148 $1,018,378,253 35 FY 2064-65 $34,466,635 $672,169,662 $18,808,678 $255, 648,472 $17,569,695 $398,244,920 $53,275,313 $927,818,134 $52,036,329 $1,070,414,583 36 FY 2065-66 $35,157,215 $707,326,878 $19,844,285 $275, 492,757 $17,922,759 $416,167,679 $55,001,501 $982,819,635 $53,079,974 $1,123,494,557 37 FY 2066-67 $35,861,608 $743,188,486 $20,948,420 $296, 441,177 $18,310,964 $434,478,643 $56,810,027 $1,039,629,662 $54,172,572 $1,177,667,129 38 FY 2067-68 $36,580,088 $779,768,574 $21,369,058 $317, 810,235 $18,678,854 $453,157,497 $57,949,146 $1,097,578,809 $55,258,942 $1,232,926,070 39 FY 2068-69 $37,312,938 $817,081,511 $21,798,110 $339, 608,345 $19,054,101 $472,211,598 $59,111,047 $1,156,689,856 $56,367,039 $1,289,293,109 40 FY 2069-70 $38,060,445 $855,141,956 $22,235,742 $361, 844,087 $19,436,853 $491,648,451 $60,296,187 $1,216,986,043 $57,497,298 $1,346,790,406 41 FY 2070-71 $38,822,901 $893,964,857 $22,682,127 $384, 526,214 $19,827,260 $511,475,711 $61,505,029 $1,278,491,071 $58,650,162 $1,405,440,568 42 FY 2071-72 $39,600,608 $933,565,465 $23,169,992 $407, 696,206 $20,258,028 $531,733,739 $62,770,600 $1,341,261,671 $59,858,636 $1,465,299,204 43 FY 2072-73 $40,393,868 $973,959,333 $23,635,062 $431, 331,268 $20,664,859 $552,398,598 $64,028,930 $1,405,290,601 $61,058,727 $1,526,357,930 44 FY 2073-74 $41,202,993 $1,015,162,326 $24,109,434 $455, 440,702 $21,079,826 $573,478,424 $65,312,427 $1,470,603,028 $62,282,819 $1,588,640,750 45 FY 2074-75 $42,028,301 $1,057,190,627 $24,593,293 $480, 033,994 $21,503,093 $594,981,517 $66,621,594 $1,537,224,621 $63,531,394 $1,652,172,144 $1,057,190,627 $480,033,994 $594,981,517 $1,537,224,621 $1,652,172,144 $442,220,111 $185,553,823 $266,476,911 $627,773,934 $708,697,022 $339,547,394 $138,777,857 $210,275,802 $478,325,250 $549,823,196 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
Total NPV (4% Discount in 2026$):
East of Temperance South of Jensen
Low Absorption Scenario High Absorption Scenario Low Absorption Scenario High Absorption Scenario Total EIFD Revenues
Total (Real Dollars):
Total NPV (3% Discount in 2026$):
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 46 Community Benefit Analysis EIFD Governance and Eligible Facilities
An EIFD is governed by a Public Financing Authority (PFA), which oversees the district and adopts an Infrastructure Financing Plan identifying the specific facilities to be funded with EIFD revenue. Because the City is assumed to be the sole participating taxing entity, the PFA would consist of five members: three members of the City Council and two members of the public who live or work within the district.
Eligible facilities funded through an EIFD include traditional public infrastructure such as roads, sewer and water facilities, parks, libraries, and flood control and drainage projects, as well as a broader range of uses including affordable housing, mixed-use and transit-oriented development, and facilities for health, youth, and social services.
EIFD revenue may also fund eligible facilities located outside the district boundary, provided those facilities have a tangible connection to the district, such as infrastructure physically connected to district-funded improvements, utility capacity improvements serving growth generated within the district, or affordable housing for workers supporting job growth within the district. 6 Community Benefit Fund Alternative
As described in Chapter 3, South SEDA development is expected to generate an annual net fiscal General Fund surplus that grows substantially as the area builds out. A Community Benefit Fund, established by City Council ordinance as an alternative or supplement to an EIFD, is a restricted fund that could direct a portion of this net fiscal surplus toward priorities such as infrastructure, affordable housing, or community programming. The City could pursue an EIFD, a Community Benefit Fund, or both, independently or concurrently.
Note that the annual net fiscal General Fund surplus reported in Chapter 3 assumes no EIFD is in place. That surplus indicates the City has fiscal capacity to consider forming an EIFD, a Community Benefit Fund, or both, since South SEDA development is estimated to generate more General Fund revenue than needed to cover the cost of serving new development. This analysis does not model the specific impact on the General Fund surplus of redirecting property tax increment revenue to an EIFD or surplus revenue to a Community Benefit Fund; that impact would depend on the portion of revenue allocated and should be evaluated separately if the City pursues either option.
6 California Government Code § 53398.52(a)(2).
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 47 Community Benefit Analysis Community Benefit Fund Governance and Eligible Uses
Unlike an EIFD, which is governed by a PFA, a Community Benefit Fund would be governed directly by the City Council, without the additional governing body or state statutory framework that applies to an EIFD. The Council would establish the fund by ordinance and would retain full discretion over its geographic scope and administration.
Eligible uses could include infrastructure improvements, affordable housing, and community programming. One option would be to target areas of the City that currently fall outside special districts providing supplemental funding for municipal services, such as Services CFDs or Lighting and Landscaping Maintenance Districts (LLMDs), extending comparable benefits to those areas. See Map 4-1 for areas in the City not currently included in an existing special district.
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 48 Community Benefit Analysis Map 4-1. Potential Geographic Scope of Community Benefit Fund Revenues
FRESNO SOUTH SEDA ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 49 Community Benefit Analysis EIFD Analysis Technical Appendices
The EIFD analysis is supported by detailed calculations included in three technical appendices in Section 4. These appendices are summarized below. • Appendix A includes a summary of the proposed South SEDA land use program at full buildout (2075+), an absorption schedule, including both absorption scenarios in the South of Jensen subarea, by land use presented in 10-year increments, and the corresponding assessed value absorption schedule in both constant 2026 dollars and values reflecting 3 percent annual price growth.
• Appendix B includes a breakdown of tax increment revenue calculations for the East of Temperance subarea, an annual absorption schedule by land use, and the corresponding assessed value absorption schedule in both constant 2026 dollars and values reflecting 3 percent annual price growth. • Appendix C includes a breakdown of tax increment revenue calculations for the South of Jensen subarea under both low- and high-absorption scenarios, along with development absorption schedules by land use and the corresponding assessed value absorption schedules presented in both constant 2026 dollars and values reflecting 3 percent annual price growth.
Technical Sections with Appendices
Section 1
Detailed Land Uses and Absorption Scenarios
Section 2
Supporting Calculations for Public Finance Analysis
Section 3
Supporting Calculations for Fiscal Impact Analysis
Section 4
Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District Funding Analysis Section 1
Detailed Land Uses and Absorption Scenarios
Appendix 1-A
Land Use and Absorption Scenarios by Subarea
Appendix 1-A
Land Use and Absorption Scenarios by Subarea
Table A-1. South SEDA Proposed Land Uses at Buildout ................................................................ 1-A-1 Table A-2. East of Temperance Residential Development Absorption Schedule ................... 1-A-2 Table A-3. East of Temperance Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule ........... 1-A-3 Table A-4. South of Jensen Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule:
Low Estimate............................................................................................................................... 1-A-4 Table A-5. South of Jensen Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule:
High Estimate ............................................................................................................................. 1-A-5 Table A-6. South SEDA Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule:
Low Estimate............................................................................................................................... 1-A-6 Table A-7. South SEDA Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule:
High Estimate ............................................................................................................................. 1-A-7 Table A-1
Fresno South SEDA
Land Use Assumptions
South SEDA Proposed Land Uses at Buildout
Description Acres
Density/
FAR
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft. Acres
Density/
FAR
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft. Acres
Density/
FAR
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft.
Residential
Single Family
Neighborhood Residential 407.0 20.0 8,140 - - - - - 407.0 20.0 8,140 - Multifamily
Neighborhood Town Center 7.5 40.0 300 - - - - - 7.5 40.0 300 - Community Town Center 7.6 80.0 605 - - - - - 7.6 80.0 605 - Mixed-Use Residential 41.0 25.0 1,025 - - - - - 41.0 25.0 1,025 - Subtotal Multifamily 56.1 34.4 1,930 - - - - - 56.1 34.4 1,930 - Total Residential 463.1 21.7 10,070 - - - - - 463.1 21.7 10,070 - Nonresidential
Office
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) 0.6 0.25 - 6,800 - - - - 0.6 0.25 - 6,800 Office - - - - 63.0 0.32 - 866,250 63.0 0.32 - 866,250
Subtotal Office 0.6 - - 6,800 63.0 - - 866,250 63.6 - - 873,050 Retail
Retail (Neighborhood Town Center) 1.9 0.25 - 20,500 - - - - 1.9 0.25 - 20,500 Retail (Community Town Center) 3.4 0.50 - 75,000 - - - - 3.4 0.50 - 75,000 Retail (Flex R&D) [1] - - - - - - - - - - - -
Subtotal Retail 5.3 - - 95,500 - - - - 5.3 - - 95,500
Industrial
Industrial (Flex R&D) - - - - 1,369.0 0.30 - 18,000,000 1,369.0 0.30 - 18,000,000 Total Nonresidential 5.9 - - 102,300 1,432.0 - 18,866,250 1,437.9 - - 18,968,550 Institutional - - - - 116.0 - - - 116.0 - - - TOTAL PROPOSED LAND USES 469.0 - 10,070 102,300 1,548.0 - - 18,866,250 2,017.0 - 10,070 18,968,550 Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS. [1] According to the City, retail is a permitted use within Flexible R&D. However, only a minor amount of business-serving retail is anticipated to be developed. Consequently, this analysis excludes retail development within the Flexible R&D land use category.
East of Temperance South of Jensen Total Buildout
South SEDA Proposed Land Uses
Prepared by EPS 6/12/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 Base Land Use 05-20-26.xlsm 1-A-1
Table A-2
Fresno South SEDA
Land Use Assumptions
East of Temperance Residential Development Absorption Schedule Year [1] Total Units Cumulative Total Units Cumulative Total Units Cumulative Total Units Cumulative Total Units Cumulative 2030 100 100 - - - - - - 100 100
2031 250 350 - - - - - - 250 350
2032 250 600 16 16 31 31 53 53 350 700
2033 300 900 24 40 47 78 80 133 451 1,151
2034 350 1,250 24 64 47 125 80 213 501 1,652
2035 500 1,750 24 88 53 178 80 293 657 2,309
2036 500 2,250 32 120 62 240 106 399 700 3,009
2037 550 2,800 48 168 93 333 159 558 850 3,859
2038 550 3,350 48 216 93 426 159 717 850 4,709
2039 550 3,900 44 260 93 519 159 876 846 5,555
2040 550 4,450 40 300 86 605 149 1,025 825 6,380
2041 550 5,000 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 550 6,930
2042 550 5,550 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 550 7,480
2043 550 6,100 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 550 8,030
2044 550 6,650 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 550 8,580
2045 550 7,200 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 550 9,130
2046 550 7,750 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 550 9,680
2047 390 8,140 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 390 10,070
2048 - 8,140 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 - 10,070
2049 - 8,140 - 300 605 - 1,025 - 10,070
Total 8,140 - 300 - 605 - 1,025 - 10,070 -
Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS. [1] All residential development is projected to occur in the East of Temperance area only.
East of Temperance
Residential
Single Family
Development
Multifamily Development
Community Town Center Mixed-Use ResidentialNeighborhood Town Center Total
Residential
Prepared by EPS 6/12/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 Base Land Use 05-20-26.xlsm 1-A-2
Table A-3
Fresno South SEDA
Land Use Assumptions
East of Temperance Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule Year
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
2030 - - - - - - - -
2031 - - - - - - - -
2032 - - - - - - - -
2033 - - - - - - - -
2034 - - - - - - - -
2035 - - - - - - - -
2036 - - 20,500 20,500 - - 20,500 20,500
2037 4,900 4,900 - 20,500 - - 4,900 25,400
2038 - 4,900 - 20,500 - - - 25,400
2039 - 4,900 - 20,500 - - - 25,400
2040 - 4,900 - 20,500 - - 25,400
2041 - 4,900 - 20,500 75,000 75,000 75,000 100,400
2042 - 4,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 100,400
2043 - 4,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 100,400
2044 - 4,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 100,400
2045 - 4,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 100,400
2046 - 4,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 100,400
2047 1,900 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 1,900 102,300
2048 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2049 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2050 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2051 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2052 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2053 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2054 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2055 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2056 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2057 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2058 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2059 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2060 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2061 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2062 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2063 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2064 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2065 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2066 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2067 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2068 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2069 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2070 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2071 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2072 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2073 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2074 - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
2075+ - 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300
Total 6,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 102,300 -
Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS.
Retail
(Community Town Center)
Retail
(Neighborhood Town Center)Office
East of Temperance
Nonresidential
Total Buildout
East of Temperance
Prepared by EPS 6/12/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 Base Land Use 05-20-26.xlsm 1-A-3
Table A-4
Fresno South SEDA
Land Use Assumptions
South of Jensen Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule: Low Estimate Year
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
2030 22,500 22,500 500,000 500,000 522,500 522,500
2031 - 22,500 500,000 1,000,000 500,000 1,022,500
2032 - 22,500 500,000 1,500,000 500,000 1,522,500
2033 - 22,500 500,000 2,000,000 500,000 2,022,500
2034 - 22,500 500,000 2,500,000 500,000 2,522,500
2035 22,500 45,000 500,000 3,000,000 522,500 3,045,000
2036 - 45,000 500,000 3,500,000 500,000 3,545,000
2037 - 45,000 500,000 4,000,000 500,000 4,045,000
2038 - 45,000 500,000 4,500,000 500,000 4,545,000
2039 - 45,000 500,000 5,000,000 500,000 5,045,000
2040 22,500 67,500 500,000 5,500,000 522,500 5,567,500
2041 - 67,500 500,000 6,000,000 500,000 6,067,500
2042 - 67,500 500,000 6,500,000 500,000 6,567,500
2043 - 67,500 500,000 7,000,000 500,000 7,067,500
2044 - 67,500 500,000 7,500,000 500,000 7,567,500
2045 22,500 90,000 500,000 8,000,000 522,500 8,090,000
2046 - 90,000 500,000 8,500,000 500,000 8,590,000
2047 - 90,000 500,000 9,000,000 500,000 9,090,000
2048 - 90,000 500,000 9,500,000 500,000 9,590,000
2049 - 90,000 500,000 10,000,000 500,000 10,090,000 2050 22,500 112,500 500,000 10,500,000 522,500 10,612,500 2051 - 112,500 500,000 11,000,000 500,000 11,112,500 2052 - 112,500 500,000 11,500,000 500,000 11,612,500 2053 - 112,500 500,000 12,000,000 500,000 12,112,500 2054 - 112,500 500,000 12,500,000 500,000 12,612,500 2055 22,500 135,000 500,000 13,000,000 522,500 13,135,000 2056 - 135,000 500,000 13,500,000 500,000 13,635,000 2057 - 135,000 500,000 14,000,000 500,000 14,135,000 2058 - 135,000 500,000 14,500,000 500,000 14,635,000 2059 - 135,000 500,000 15,000,000 500,000 15,135,000 2060 22,500 157,500 500,000 15,500,000 522,500 15,657,500 2061 - 157,500 500,000 16,000,000 500,000 16,157,500 2062 - 157,500 500,000 16,500,000 500,000 16,657,500 2063 - 157,500 500,000 17,000,000 500,000 17,157,500 2064 - 157,500 500,000 17,500,000 500,000 17,657,500 2065 22,500 180,000 500,000 18,000,000 522,500 18,180,000 2066 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2067 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2068 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2069 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2070 22,500 202,500 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,202,500
2071 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2072 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2073 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2074 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2075+ 663,750 866,250 - 18,000,000 663,750 18,866,250
Total 866,250 - 18,000,000 - 18,866,250 -
Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS.
South of Jensen
Nonresidential
Low Estimate
Total Buildout
South of Jensen
Industrial (Flex R&D)Office
Prepared by EPS 6/12/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 Base Land Use 05-20-26.xlsm 1-A-4
Table A-5
Fresno South SEDA
Land Use Assumptions
South of Jensen Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule: High Estimate Year
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
2030 22,500 22,500 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,022,500 2,022,500 2031 - 22,500 2,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 4,022,500 2032 - 22,500 2,000,000 6,000,000 2,000,000 6,022,500 2033 - 22,500 2,000,000 8,000,000 2,000,000 8,022,500 2034 - 22,500 2,000,000 10,000,000 2,000,000 10,022,500 2035 22,500 45,000 2,000,000 12,000,000 2,022,500 12,045,000 2036 - 45,000 2,000,000 14,000,000 2,000,000 14,045,000 2037 - 45,000 2,000,000 16,000,000 2,000,000 16,045,000 2038 - 45,000 2,000,000 18,000,000 2,000,000 18,045,000 2039 - 45,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,045,000
2040 22,500 67,500 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,067,500
2041 - 67,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,067,500
2042 - 67,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,067,500
2043 - 67,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,067,500
2044 - 67,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,067,500
2045 22,500 90,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,090,000
2046 - 90,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,090,000
2047 - 90,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,090,000
2048 - 90,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,090,000
2049 - 90,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,090,000
2050 22,500 112,500 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,112,500
2051 - 112,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,112,500
2052 - 112,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,112,500
2053 - 112,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,112,500
2054 - 112,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,112,500
2055 22,500 135,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,135,000
2056 - 135,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,135,000
2057 - 135,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,135,000
2058 - 135,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,135,000
2059 - 135,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,135,000
2060 22,500 157,500 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,157,500
2061 - 157,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,157,500
2062 - 157,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,157,500
2063 - 157,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,157,500
2064 - 157,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,157,500
2065 22,500 180,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,180,000
2066 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2067 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2068 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2069 - 180,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,180,000
2070 22,500 202,500 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,202,500
2071 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2072 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2073 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2074 - 202,500 - 18,000,000 - 18,202,500
2075+ 663,750 866,250 - 18,000,000 663,750 18,866,250
Total 866,250 - 18,000,000 - 18,866,250 -
Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS.
South of Jensen
Nonresidential
High Estimate
South of Jensen
Office Industrial (Flex R&D) Total Buildout
Prepared by EPS 6/12/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 Base Land Use 05-20-26.xlsm 1-A-5
Table A-6
Fresno South SEDA
Land Use Assumptions
South SEDA Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule: Low Estimate Year
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
2030 22,500 22,500 - - - - 500,000 500,000 522,500 522,500 2031 - 22,500 - - - - 500,000 1,000,000 500,000 1,022,500 2032 - 22,500 - - - - 500,000 1,500,000 500,000 1,522,500 2033 - 22,500 - - - - 500,000 2,000,000 500,000 2,022,500 2034 - 22,500 - - - - 500,000 2,500,000 500,000 2,522,500 2035 22,500 45,000 - - - - 500,000 3,000,000 522,500 3,045,000 2036 - 45,000 20,500 20,500 - - 500,000 3,500,000 520,500 3,565,500 2037 4,900 49,900 - 20,500 - - 500,000 4,000,000 504,900 4,070,400 2038 - 49,900 - 20,500 - - 500,000 4,500,000 500,000 4,570,400 2039 - 49,900 - 20,500 - - 500,000 5,000,000 500,000 5,070,400 2040 22,500 72,400 - 20,500 - - 500,000 5,500,000 522,500 5,592,900 2041 - 72,400 - 20,500 75,000 75,000 500,000 6,000,000 575,000 6,167,900 2042 - 72,400 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 6,500,000 500,000 6,667,900 2043 - 72,400 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 7,000,000 500,000 7,167,900 2044 - 72,400 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 7,500,000 500,000 7,667,900 2045 22,500 94,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 8,000,000 522,500 8,190,400 2046 - 94,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 8,500,000 500,000 8,690,400 2047 1,900 96,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 9,000,000 501,900 9,192,300 2048 - 96,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 9,500,000 500,000 9,692,300 2049 - 96,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 10,000,000 500,000 10,192,300 2050 22,500 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 10,500,000 522,500 10,714,800 2051 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 11,000,000 500,000 11,214,800 2052 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 11,500,000 500,000 11,714,800 2053 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 12,000,000 500,000 12,214,800 2054 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 12,500,000 500,000 12,714,800 2055 22,500 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 13,000,000 522,500 13,237,300 2056 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 13,500,000 500,000 13,737,300 2057 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 14,000,000 500,000 14,237,300 2058 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 14,500,000 500,000 14,737,300 2059 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 15,000,000 500,000 15,237,300 2060 22,500 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 15,500,000 522,500 15,759,800 2061 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 16,000,000 500,000 16,259,800 2062 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 16,500,000 500,000 16,759,800 2063 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 17,000,000 500,000 17,259,800 2064 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 17,500,000 500,000 17,759,800 2065 22,500 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 500,000 18,000,000 522,500 18,282,300 2066 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2067 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2068 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2069 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2070 22,500 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,304,800 2071 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2072 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2073 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2074 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2075+ 663,750 873,050 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 663,750 18,968,550 Total 873,050 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,968,550 - Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS.
South SEDA
Nonresidential
Low Estimate
Total Buildout Industrial (Flex R&D)
Retail
(Community Town Center)Office
Retail
(Neighborhood Town Center)
Prepared by EPS 6/12/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 Base Land Use 05-20-26.xlsm 1-A-6
Table A-7
Fresno South SEDA
Land Use Assumptions
South SEDA Nonresidential Development Absorption Schedule: High Estimate Year
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Total
Sq. Ft.
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
2030 22,500 22,500 - - - - 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,022,500 2,022,500 2031 - 22,500 - - - - 2,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 4,022,500 2032 - 22,500 - - - - 2,000,000 6,000,000 2,000,000 6,022,500 2033 - 22,500 - - - - 2,000,000 8,000,000 2,000,000 8,022,500 2034 - 22,500 - - - - 2,000,000 10,000,000 2,000,000 10,022,500 2035 22,500 45,000 - - - - 2,000,000 12,000,000 2,022,500 12,045,000 2036 - 45,000 20,500 20,500 - - 2,000,000 14,000,000 2,020,500 14,065,500 2037 4,900 49,900 - 20,500 - - 2,000,000 16,000,000 2,004,900 16,070,400 2038 - 49,900 - 20,500 - - 2,000,000 18,000,000 2,000,000 18,070,400 2039 - 49,900 - 20,500 - - - 18,000,000 - 18,070,400 2040 22,500 72,400 - 20,500 - - - 18,000,000 22,500 18,092,900 2041 - 72,400 - 20,500 75,000 75,000 - 18,000,000 75,000 18,167,900 2042 - 72,400 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,167,900 2043 - 72,400 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,167,900 2044 - 72,400 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,167,900 2045 22,500 94,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,190,400 2046 - 94,900 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,190,400 2047 1,900 96,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 1,900 18,192,300 2048 - 96,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,192,300 2049 - 96,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,192,300 2050 22,500 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,214,800 2051 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,214,800 2052 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,214,800 2053 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,214,800 2054 - 119,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,214,800 2055 22,500 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,237,300 2056 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,237,300 2057 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,237,300 2058 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,237,300 2059 - 141,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,237,300 2060 22,500 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,259,800 2061 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,259,800 2062 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,259,800 2063 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,259,800 2064 - 164,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,259,800 2065 22,500 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,282,300 2066 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2067 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2068 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2069 - 186,800 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,282,300 2070 22,500 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 22,500 18,304,800 2071 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2072 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2073 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2074 - 209,300 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,304,800 2075+ 663,750 873,050 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 663,750 18,968,550 Total 873,050 - 20,500 - 75,000 - 18,000,000 - 18,968,550 - Source: City of Fresno land use summary as of May 15, 2026 ; EPS.
South SEDA
Nonresidential
High Estimate
Office
Retail
(Neighborhood Town Center)
Retail
(Community Town Center) Industrial (Flex R&D) Total Buildout Prepared by EPS 6/12/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 Base Land Use 05-20-26.xlsm 1-A-7
Section 2
Supporting Calculations for Public Finance Analysis
Appendix 2-A
Bonding Subsidy and Repayment Period Analysis
Appendix 2-A
Bonding Subsidy and Repayment Period Analysis
Table A-1. Estimated Sewer System Predevelopment Costs (2026$) ........................................ 2-A-1 Table A-2. School District Ad Valorem Property Tax Rates (FY 2025 -26) ................................ 2-A-2 Table A-3. Estimated South SEDA Maximum Annual Tax Rates (2026$) .................................. 2-A-3 Table A-4. South SEDA Maximum Special Tax Revenue -
East of Temperance (2026$) ................................................................................................. 2-A-4 Table A-5. South SEDA Maximum Special Tax Revenue -
South of Jensen Low Absorption (2026$) ........................................................................ 2-A-5 Table A-6. South SEDA Maximum Special Tax Revenue -
South of Jensen High Absorption (2026$) ....................................................................... 2-A-6 Table A-7. Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - East of Temperance (Nominal $)........................................................................................... 2-A-7 Table A-8. Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen Low Absorption (Nominal $)................................................................. 2-A-8 Table A-9. Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen High Absorption (Nominal $)................................................................ 2-A-9 Table A-10. Combined Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen Low Absorption (Nominal $)............................................................... 2-A-1 0 Table A-11. Combined Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen High Absorption (Nominal $)..............................................................2-A-1 1 Table A-12. Value to Lien Requirement (2029$) ................................................................................ 2-A-1 2 T
able A-13. Estimated South SEDA Bond Sizing Summary (2026$) ........................................... 2-A- 13 Table A-14. Estimated South SEDA Bonding Capacity at Buildout (2026$) ............................ 2-A- 14 Table A-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Estimated Sewer System Predevelopment Costs (2026$)
Item Description Pct. Quantity Total Cost Quantity Total Cost Quantity Total Cost Sewer System Costs
1 Project D-1 & D-14 (48-inch Gravity Sewer) $1,332 per LF - - 21,840 $29,095,000 21,840 $29,095,000 2 Project D-2 (42-inch Gravity Sewer) $1,265 per LF 6,225 $7,874,000 - - 6,225 $7,874,000 3 Trenchless Crossing - Intersection $510,000 EA - - 1 $510,000 1 $510,000 4 Trenchless Crossing - Canal/Railroad $950,000 EA 3 $2,850,000 2 $1,900,000 5 $4,750,000 Subtotal $10,724,000 $31,505,000 $42,229,000
Estimating Contingency 20% $2,145,000 $6,301,000 $8,446,000 Total Estimated Construction Cost $12,869,000 $37,806,000 $50,675,000 Soft Cost 30% $3,861,000 $11,342,000 $15,203,000
Total $16,730,000 $49,148,000 $65,878,000
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Un it costs have been updated to 2026 dollars.
[2] Im provements D-1, D-2, and D-14 are needed for both areas and are recommended to be constructed as a single project Predevelopment Costs
East of Temperance South of Jensen TotalUnit Price
(Rounded) [1]
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-1
Table A-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
School District Ad Valorem Property Tax Rates (FY 2025-26) School District General Obligation Bond Tax Rate
Sanger USD
SANGER USD 2012, SERIES C 0.009124%
SANGER USD 2014 REFUNDING 0.034476%
SANGER USD 2016, SERIES A 0.018764%
SANGER USD 2016, SERIES B 0.000770%
SANGER USD 2018, SERIES A 0.007186%
SANGER USD 2018, SERIES B 0.009590%
SANGER USD 2018, SERIES C 0.015040%
SANGER USD 2020, SERIES A 0.018068%
SANGER USD 2020, SERIES B 0.028880%
SANGER USD 2021 REFUNDING 0.024714%
SANGER USD 2022 REFUNDING 0.017050%
SANGER USD 2024 A 0.054432%
Subtotal Sanger USD 0.238094%
State Center Community College
STATE CENTER C. COLLEGE 2002, SERIES 2018 A 0.001946%
STATE CENTER C. COLLEGE 2015 REFUNDING 0.002608%
STATE CENTER C. COLLEGE 2016, SERIES A 0.001324%
STATE CENTER CCD 2016, SERIES 2020 B 0.004116%
STATE CENTER CCD 2016, SERIES 2020 C 0.007810%
STATE CENTER C. COLLEGE 2017 REFUNDING 0.000982%
STATE CENTER C. COLLEGE 2020 REFUNDING 0.001248%
Subtotal State Center Community College 0.020034%
Total 0.258128%
Source: Fresno County Auditor Controller; EPS.
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-2
Table A-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Estimated South SEDA Maximum Annual Tax Rates (2026$)
per per Unit/
Item FAR Acre 1K Bldg. Sq. Ft.
Residential [1]
per unit
Single Family $1,300
Multifamily $1,000
Subtotal Residential Land Uses
Nonresidential [2] per 1K sq. ft.
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) 0.25 $10,000 $918
Office 0.32 $10,000 $717
Retail (Community Town Center) 0.25 $10,000 $918
Retail (Neighborhood Town Center) 0.50 $10,000 $459
Industrial - Flex R&D 0.30 $10,000 $765
Subtotal Nonresidential
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] See Table 2-4 for estimated maximum special tax rates per residential unit. [2] Max. annual special tax rate per 1,000 sq. ft. = $10,000 per acre/(FAR*43,560 sq. ft. per acre)*1,000.
Max Annual Special Tax Rate
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-3
Table A-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
South SEDA Maximum Special Tax Revenue - East of Temperance (2026$) Single-
Family Multifamily
Office
(NTC)
Retail
(CTC)
Retail
(NTC)
Single-
Family Multifamily
Office
(NTC)
Retail
(CTC)
Retail
(NTC)
New
Annual
Increase from
Prior Year
Total
New Annual
Total
Annual
Formula B=1.02^(yr-2026) E= prior year G*2% F=D+E G=F+prior year G Base Year 2026
2% $1,300 $1,000 $918 $918 $459 2%
2030 100 - - - - 1.0824 $1,407 $1,082 $994 $994 $497 $140,716 - $140,716 $140,716 2031 250 - - - - 1. 1041 $1,435 $1,104 $1,014 $1, 014 $507 $358,826 $2,814 $361,641 $502,357 2032 250 100 - - - 1. 1262 $1,464 $1,126 $1,034 $1, 034 $517 $478,619 $10,047 $488,666 $991,023 2033 300 151 - - - 1. 1487 $1,493 $1,149 $1,054 $1, 054 $527 $621,439 $19,820 $641,259 $1,632,282 2034 350 151 - - - 1. 1717 $1,523 $1,172 $1,076 $1, 076 $538 $710,026 $32,646 $742,671 $2,374,954 2035 500 157 - - - 1. 1951 $1,554 $1,195 $1,097 $1,097 $549 $964,440 $47,499 $1,011,939 $3,386,892 2036 500 200 - 20,500 - 1.2190 $1,585 $1,219 $1,119 $1,119 $560 $1,059,086 $67,738 $1,126,823 $4,513,716 2037 550 300 4,900 - - 1.2434 $1,616 $1,243 $1,141 $1,141 $571 $1,267,618 $90,274 $1,357,892 $5,871,608 2038 550 300 - - - 1.2682 $1,649 $1,268 $1,164 $1,164 $582 $1,287,265 $117,432 $1,404,698 $7,276,305 2039 550 296 - - - 1.2936 $1,682 $1,294 $1,188 $1,188 $594 $1,307,836 $145,526 $1,453,362 $8,729,668 2040 550 275 - - - 1.3195 $1,715 $1,319 $1,211 $1,211 $606 $1,306,284 $174,593 $1,480,877 $10,210,545 2041 550 - - - 75,000 1.3459 $1,750 $1,346 $1, 236 $1,236 $618 $1,008, 627 $204,211 $1,212,838 $11,423,383 2042 550 - - - - 1. 3728 $1,785 $1,373 $1,260 $1,260 $630 $981,542 $228,468 $1,210,009 $12,633,393 2043 550 - - - - 1.4002 $1,820 $1,400 $1,285 $1,285 $643 $1,001,173 $252,668 $1,253,840 $13,887,233 2044 550 - - - - 1.4282 $1,857 $1,428 $1,311 $1,311 $656 $1,021,196 $277,745 $1,298,941 $15,186,174 2045 550 - - - - 1.4568 $1,894 $1,457 $1,337 $1,337 $669 $1,041,620 $303,723 $1,345,343 $16,531,518 2046 550 - - - - 1.4859 $1,932 $1,486 $1,364 $1,364 $682 $1,062,452 $330,630 $1,393,083 $17,924,600 2047 390 - 1,900 - - 1. 5157 $1,970 $1,516 $1,391 $1,391 $696 $771,086 $358,492 $1,129,578 $19,054,179 2048 - - - - - 1.5460 $2,010 $1,546 $1,419 $1,419 $710 - $381,084 $381,084 $19,435,262 2049 - - - - - 1.5769 $2,050 $1,577 $1,448 $1,448 $724 - $388,705 $388,705 $19,823,968 2050 - - - - - 1.6084 $2,091 $1,608 $1,477 $1,477 $738 - $396,479 $396,479 $20,220,447 2051 - - - - - 1.6406 $2,133 $1,641 $1,506 $1,506 $753 - $404,409 $404,409 $20,624,856 2052 - - - - - 1.6734 $2,175 $1,673 $1,536 $1,536 $768 - $412,497 $412,497 $21,037,353 2053 - - - - - 1.7069 $2,219 $1,707 $1,567 $1,567 $783 - $420,747 $420,747 $21,458,100 2054 - - - - - 1.7410 $2,263 $1,741 $1,598 $1,598 $799 - $429,162 $429,162 $21,887,262 2055 - - - - - 1.7758 $2,309 $1,776 $1,630 $1,630 $815 - $437,745 $437,745 $22,325,007 2056 - - - - - 1.8114 $2,355 $1,811 $1,663 $1,663 $831 - $446,500 $446,500 $22,771,508 2057 - - - - - 1.8476 $2,402 $1,848 $1,696 $1,696 $848 - $455,430 $455,430 $23,226,938 2058 - - - - - 1.8845 $2,450 $1,885 $1,730 $1,730 $865 - $464,539 $464,539 $23,691,476 Total 8,140 1,930 6,800 20,500 75,000 $16,389,851 $7,301, 625 $23,691,476 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] A ssumes the annual special taxes are imposed on development during the 30-year predevelopment bond term (2029-2058). It is assumed the bond will be issued in 2029, but because development is not anticipated to begin until 2030, 2029 is excluded from this table.
Each developed property would pay taxes from the year of development, so different properties would pay for a different period of time, depending on the year in which development occurs and payment of the annual taxes begin. [2] See Table A -3 for maximum annual tax rates in 2026 dollars. units bldg. sq. ft.
East of Temperance
across all land uses
Base Year Tax Rate per Unit/1K Bldg. Sq. Ft. [2]
per unit per 1K bldg. sq. ft.
MAST Revenue
A C=Base year tax rate * B D= sum of A*C
Annual Development
Year
[1]
Annual
Escalation
Factor
MAST Rates [2]
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-4
Table A-5
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
South SEDA Maximum Special Tax Revenue - South of Jensen Low Absorption (2026$) Office Industrial Office Industrial
New
Annual
Increase on
Prior Year
Total
New Annual
Total
Annual
Formula B=1.02^(yr-2026) E= prior year G*2% F=D+E G=F+prior year G Base Year 2026
2% $717 $765 2%
2030 22,500 500,000 1.0824 $776 $828 $431,493 - $431,493 $431,493 2031 - 500,000 1.1041 $792 $845 $422,311 $8,630 $430,941 $862,433 2032 - 500,000 1.1262 $807 $862 $430,757 $17,249 $448,006 $1,310,439 2033 - 500,000 1.1487 $824 $879 $439,372 $26,209 $465,581 $1,776,020 2034 - 500,000 1.1717 $840 $896 $448,160 $35,520 $483,680 $2,259,700 2035 22,500 500,000 1.1951 $857 $914 $476,403 $45,194 $521,597 $2,781,297 2036 - 500,000 1.2190 $874 $933 $466,265 $55,626 $521,891 $3,303,188 2037 - 500,000 1.2434 $891 $951 $475,591 $66,064 $541,654 $3,844,843 2038 - 500,000 1.2682 $909 $970 $485,102 $76,897 $561,999 $4,406,842 2039 - 500,000 1.2936 $928 $990 $494,805 $88,137 $582,941 $4,989,784 2040 22,500 500,000 1.3195 $946 $1, 009 $525,987 $99,796 $625,783 $5,615,566 2041 - 500,000 1.3459 $965 $1,030 $514,795 $112,311 $627,106 $6,242,672 2042 - 500,000 1.3728 $984 $1,050 $525,091 $124,853 $649,944 $6,892,616 2043 - 500,000 1.4002 $1,004 $1,071 $535,592 $137,852 $673,445 $7,566,061 2044 - 500,000 1.4282 $1,024 $1,093 $546,304 $151,321 $697,625 $8,263,686 2045 22,500 500,000 1.4568 $1,045 $1,114 $580,732 $165,274 $746,006 $9,009,692 2046 - 500,000 1.4859 $1,065 $1,137 $568,375 $180,194 $748,569 $9,758,261 2047 - 500,000 1.5157 $1,087 $1,159 $579,742 $195,165 $774,908 $10,533,169 2048 - 500,000 1.5460 $1,108 $1,183 $591,337 $210,663 $802,001 $11,335,169 2049 - 500,000 1.5769 $1,131 $1,206 $603,164 $226,703 $829,867 $12,165,037 2050 22,500 500,000 1.6084 $1,153 $1,230 $641,175 $243,301 $884,476 $13,049,513 2051 - 500,000 1.6406 $1,176 $1,255 $627,532 $260,990 $888,522 $13,938,035 2052 - 500,000 1.6734 $1,200 $1,280 $640,082 $278,761 $918,843 $14,856,878 2053 - 500,000 1.7069 $1,224 $1,306 $652,884 $297,138 $950,022 $15,806,900 2054 - 500,000 1.7410 $1,248 $1,332 $665,942 $316,138 $982,080 $16,788,979 2055 22,500 500,000 1.7758 $1,273 $1, 359 $707,909 $335,780 $1,043,689 $17,832,668 2056 - 500,000 1.8114 $1,299 $1,386 $692,846 $356,653 $1,049,499 $18,882,168 2057 - 500,000 1.8476 $1,325 $1,413 $706,703 $377,643 $1,084,346 $19,966,514 2058 - 500,000 1.8845 $1,351 $1,442 $720,837 $399,330 $1,120,167 $21,086,681 Total 135,000 14,500,000 $16,197,288 $4,889,392 $21,086,681 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Assumes the annual special taxes are imposed on development during the 30-year predevelopment bond term (2029-2058). It is assumed the bond will be issued in 2029, but because development is not anticipated to begin until 2030, 2029 is excluded from this table. Each developed property would pay taxes from the year of development, so different properties would pay for a different period of time, depending on the year in which development occurs and payment of the annual taxes begin. [2] See Table A-3 for maximum annual tax rates in 2026 dollars.
Year
Annual Development
South of Jensen
Low Absorption Scenario
bldg. sq. ft.
Annual
Escalation
Factor
A
Base Year Tax Rate per Unit/1K Bldg. Sq. Ft. [2]
per 1K bldg. sq. ft.
MAST RevenueMAST Rates [1]
C=Base year tax rate * B D= sum of A*C
across all land uses
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-5
Table A-6
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
South SEDA Maximum Special Tax Revenue - South of Jensen High Absorption (2026$) Office Industrial Office Industrial
New
Annual
Increase on
Prior Year
Total
New Annual
Total
Annual
Formula B=1.02^(yr-2026) E= prior year G*2% F=D+E G=F+prior year G Base Year 2026
2% $717 $765 2%
2030 22,500 2,000,000 1.0824 $776 $828 $1,673,584 - $1,673,584 $1,673,584 2031 - 2,000,000 1.1041 $792 $845 $1,689,244 $33,472 $1,722,715 $3,396,299 2032 - 2,000,000 1.1262 $807 $862 $1,723,029 $67,926 $1,790,954 $5,187,253 2033 - 2,000,000 1.1487 $824 $879 $1,757,489 $103,745 $1,861,234 $7,048,487 2034 - 2,000,000 1.1717 $840 $896 $1,792,639 $140,970 $1,933,609 $8,982,096 2035 22,500 2,000,000 1.1951 $857 $914 $1,847,771 $179,642 $2,027,413 $11,009,509 2036 - 2,000,000 1.2190 $874 $933 $1,865,061 $220,190 $2,085,252 $13,094,761 2037 - 2,000,000 1.2434 $891 $951 $1,902,363 $261,895 $2,164,258 $15,259,019 2038 - 2,000,000 1.2682 $909 $970 $1,940,410 $305,180 $2,245,590 $17,504,609 2039 - - 1.2936 $928 $990 - $350,092 $350,092 $17,854,702 2040 22,500 - 1.3195 $946 $1, 009 $21,286 $357,094 $378,381 $18,233,082 2041 - - 1.3459 $965 $1,030 - $364,662 $364,662 $18,597,744 2042 - - 1.3728 $984 $1,050 - $371,955 $371,955 $18,969,699 2043 - - 1.4002 $1,004 $1,071 - $379,394 $379,394 $19,349,093 2044 - - 1.4282 $1,024 $1,093 - $386,982 $386,982 $19,736,074 2045 22,500 - 1.4568 $1,045 $1,114 $23,502 $394,721 $418,223 $20,154,298 2046 - - 1.4859 $1,065 $1,137 - $403,086 $403,086 $20,557,384 2047 - - 1.5157 $1,087 $1,159 - $411,148 $411,148 $20,968,532 2048 - - 1.5460 $1,108 $1,183 - $419,371 $419,371 $21,387,902 2049 - - 1.5769 $1,131 $1,206 - $427,758 $427,758 $21,815,660 2050 22,500 - 1.6084 $1,153 $1,230 $25,948 $436,313 $462,261 $22,277,921 2051 - - 1.6406 $1,176 $1,255 - $445,558 $445,558 $22,723,480 2052 - - 1.6734 $1,200 $1,280 - $454,470 $454,470 $23,177,950 2053 - - 1.7069 $1,224 $1,306 - $463,559 $463,559 $23,641,509 2054 - - 1.7410 $1,248 $1,332 - $472,830 $472,830 $24,114,339 2055 22,500 - 1.7758 $1,273 $1,359 $28,649 $482,287 $510,936 $24,625,274 2056 - - 1.8114 $1,299 $1,386 - $492,505 $492,505 $25,117,780 2057 - - 1.8476 $1,325 $1,413 - $502,356 $502,356 $25,620,135 2058 - - 1.8845 $1,351 $1,442 - $512,403 $512,403 $26,132,538 Total 135,000 18,000,000 $16,290,975 $9,841,563 $26,132,538 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Assumes the annual special taxes are imposed on development during the 30-year predevelopment bond term (2029-2058). It is assumed the bond will be issued in 2029, but because development is not anticipated to begin until 2030, 2029 is excluded from this table. Each developed property would pay taxes from the year of development, so different properties would pay for a different period of time, depending on the year in which development occurs and payment of the annual taxes begin. [2] See Table A-3 for maximum annual tax rates in 2026 dollars.
Base Year Tax Rate per Unit/1K Bldg. Sq. Ft. [2]
South of Jensen
High Absorption Scenario
C=Base year tax rate * B D= sum of A*C
bldg. sq. ft.
across all land uses
per 1K bldg. sq. ft.
A
Year
Annual Development MAST Rates [1] MAST RevenueAnnual
Escalation
Factor
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-6
Table A-7
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - East of Temperance (Nominal $) Year Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Formula A B=A+Prior year B D=C+Prior year C C-A D-B
Source Table A-4 Table 2-3
2029 -- -- --
2030 $140,716 $140,716 $1,608,000 $1,608,000 ($1,467,284) ($1,467,284) 2031 $502,357 $643,073 $1,608,000 $3,216,000 ($1,105,643) ($2,572,927) 2032 $991,023 $1,634,096 $1,608,000 $4,824,000 ($616,977) ($3,189,904) 2033 $1,632,282 $3,266,378 $1,608,000 $6,432,000 $24,282 ($3,165,622) 2034 $2,374,954 $5,641,332 $1,608,000 $8,040,000 $766,954 ($2,398,668) 2035 $3,386,892 $9,028,224 $1,608,000 $9,648,000 $1,778,892 ($619,776) 2036 $4,513,716 $13,541,940 $1,608,000 $11,256,000 $2,905,716 $2,285,940 2037 $5,871,608 $19,413,548 $1,608,000 $12,864,000 $4,263,608 $6,549,548 2038 $7,276,305 $26,689,853 $1,608,000 $14,472,000 $5,668,305 $12,217,853 2039 $8,729,668 $35,419,521 $1,608,000 $16,080,000 $7,121,668 $19,339,521 2040 $10,210,545 $45,630,066 $1,608,000 $17,688,000 $8,602,545 $27,942,066 2041 $11,423,383 $57,053,450 $1,608,000 $19,296,000 $9,815,383 $37,757,450 2042 $12,633,393 $69,686,843 $1,608,000 $20,904,000 $11,025,393 $48,782,843 2043 $13,887,233 $83,574,076 $1,608,000 $22,512,000 $12,279,233 $61,062,076 2044 $15,186,174 $98,760,250 $1,608,000 $24,120,000 $13,578,174 $74,640,250 2045 $16,531,518 $115,291,768 $1,608,000 $25,728,000 $14,923,518 $89,563,768 2046 $17,924,600 $133,216,368 $1,608,000 $27,336,000 $16,316,600 $105,880,368 2047 $19,054,179 $152,270,547 $1,608,000 $28,944,000 $17,446,179 $123,326,547 2048 $19,435,262 $171,705,809 $1,608,000 $30,552,000 $17,827,262 $141,153,809 2049 $19,823,968 $191,529,777 $1,608,000 $32,160,000 $18,215,968 $159,369,777 2050 $20,220,447 $211,750,224 $1,608,000 $33,768,000 $18,612,447 $177,982,224 2051 $20,624,856 $232,375,080 $1,608,000 $35,376,000 $19,016,856 $196,999,080 2052 $21,037,353 $253,412,433 $1,608,000 $36,984,000 $19,429,353 $216,428,433 2053 $21,458,100 $274,870,533 $1,608,000 $38,592,000 $19,850,100 $236,278,533 2054 $21,887,262 $296,757,795 $1,608,000 $40,200,000 $20,279,262 $256,557,795 2055 $22,325,007 $319,082,803 $1,608,000 $41,808,000 $20,717,007 $277,274,803 2056 $22,771,508 $341,854,310 $1,608,000 $43,416,000 $21,163,508 $298,438,310 2057 $23,226,938 $365,081,248 $1,608,000 $45,024,000 $21,618,938 $320,057,248 2058 $23,691,476 $388,772,724 $1,608,000 $46,632,000 $22,083,476 $342,140,724 Total $388,772,724 $46,632,000 $342,140,724
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] As sumes bond is issued in 2029. Debt service is deferred for 1 year until 2030, funded by 12 months of capitalized interest. Debt service is shown through 2058, the final year of the 30-year bond term.
C
East of Temperance
MAST Revenue from
East of Temperance Revenue Bond Debt Service [1]
MAST Revenue Surplus/(Shortfall)
to Repay Revenue Bond
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-7
Table A-8
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen Low Absorption (Nominal $) Year Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Formula A B=A+Prior year B D=C+Prior year C C-A D-B
Source Table A-5 Table 2-3
2029 -- -- --
2030 $431,493 $431,493 $4,724,000 $4,724,000 ($4,292,507) ($4,292,507) 2031 $862,433 $1,293,926 $4,724,000 $9,448,000 ($3,861,567) ($8,154,074) 2032 $1,310,439 $2,604,365 $4,724,000 $14,172,000 ($3,413,561) ($11,567,635) 2033 $1,776,020 $4,380,385 $4,724,000 $18,896,000 ($2,947,980) ($14,515,615) 2034 $2,259,700 $6,640,086 $4,724,000 $23,620,000 ($2,464,300) ($16,979,914) 2035 $2,781,297 $9,421,383 $4,724,000 $28,344,000 ($1,942,703) ($18,922,617) 2036 $3,303,188 $12,724,571 $4,724,000 $33,068,000 ($1,420,812) ($20,343,429) 2037 $3,844,843 $16,569,414 $4,724,000 $37,792,000 ($879,157) ($21,222,586) 2038 $4,406,842 $20,976,256 $4,724,000 $42,516,000 ($317,158) ($21,539,744) 2039 $4,989,784 $25,966,040 $4,724,000 $47,240,000 $265,784 ($21,273,960) 2040 $5,615,566 $31,581,606 $4,724,000 $51,964,000 $891,566 ($20,382,394) 2041 $6,242,672 $37,824,279 $4,724,000 $56,688,000 $1,518,672 ($18,863,721) 2042 $6,892,616 $44,716,895 $4,724,000 $61,412,000 $2,168,616 ($16,695,105) 2043 $7,566,061 $52,282,956 $4,724,000 $66,136,000 $2,842,061 ($13,853,044) 2044 $8,263,686 $60,546,642 $4,724,000 $70,860,000 $3,539,686 ($10,313,358) 2045 $9,009,692 $69,556,335 $4,724,000 $75,584,000 $4,285,692 ($6,027,665) 2046 $9,758,261 $79,314,596 $4,724,000 $80,308,000 $5,034,261 ($993,404) 2047 $10,533,169 $89,847,765 $4,724,000 $85,032,000 $5,809,169 $4,815,765 2048 $11,335,169 $101,182,934 $4,724,000 $89,756,000 $6,611,169 $11,426,934 2049 $12,165,037 $113,347,971 $4,724,000 $94,480,000 $7,441,037 $18,867,971 2050 $13,049,513 $126,397,483 $4,724,000 $99,204,000 $8,325,513 $27,193,483 2051 $13,938,035 $140,335,518 $4,724,000 $103,928,000 $9,214,035 $36,407,518 2052 $14,856,878 $155,192,396 $4,724,000 $108,652,000 $10,132,878 $46,540,396 2053 $15,806,900 $170,999,296 $4,724,000 $113,376,000 $11,082,900 $57,623,296 2054 $16,788,979 $187,788,275 $4,724,000 $118,100,000 $12,064,979 $69,688,275 2055 $17,832,668 $205,620,943 $4,724,000 $122,824,000 $13,108,668 $82,796,943 2056 $18,882,168 $224,503,111 $4,724,000 $127,548,000 $14,158,168 $96,955,111 2057 $19,966,514 $244,469,625 $4,724,000 $132,272,000 $15,242,514 $112,197,625 2058 $21,086,681 $265,556,305 $4,724,000 $136,996,000 $16,362,681 $128,560,305 Total $265,556,305 $136,996,000 $128,560,305
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Assumes bond is issued in 2029. Debt service is deferred for 1 year until 2030, funded by 12 months of capitalized interest. Debt service is shown through 2058, the final year of the 30-year bond term.
South of Jensen
Low Absorption Scenario
MAST Revenue from
South of Jensen Revenue Bond Debt Service [1]
MAST Revenue Surplus/(Shortfall)
to Repay Revenue Bond
C
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-8
Table A-9
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen High Absorption (Nominal $) Year Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Formula A B=A+Prior year B D=C+Prior year C C-A D-B
Source Table A-6 Table 2-3
2029 -- - - --
2030 $1,673,584 $1,673,584 $4,724,000 $4,724,000 ($3,050,416) ($3,050,416) 2031 $3,396,299 $5,069,882 $4,724,000 $9,448,000 ($1,327,701) ($4,378,118) 2032 $5,187,253 $10,257,136 $4,724,000 $14,172,000 $463,253 ($3,914,864) 2033 $7,048,487 $17,305,623 $4,724,000 $18,896,000 $2,324,487 ($1,590,377) 2034 $8,982,096 $26,287,719 $4,724,000 $23,620,000 $4,258,096 $2,667,719 2035 $11,009,509 $37,297,229 $4,724,000 $28,344,000 $6,285,509 $8,953,229 2036 $13,094,761 $50,391,990 $4,724,000 $33,068,000 $8,370,761 $17,323,990 2037 $15,259,019 $65,651,009 $4,724,000 $37,792,000 $10,535,019 $27,859,009 2038 $17,504,609 $83,155,618 $4,724,000 $42,516,000 $12,780,609 $40,639,618 2039 $17,854,702 $101,010,320 $4,724,000 $47,240,000 $13,130,702 $53,770,320 2040 $18,233,082 $119,243,402 $4,724,000 $51,964,000 $13,509,082 $67,279,402 2041 $18,597,744 $137,841,145 $4,724,000 $56,688,000 $13,873,744 $81,153,145 2042 $18,969,699 $156,810,844 $4,724,000 $61,412,000 $14,245,699 $95,398,844 2043 $19,349,093 $176,159,936 $4,724,000 $66,136,000 $14,625,093 $110,023,936 2044 $19,736,074 $195,896,011 $4,724,000 $70,860,000 $15,012,074 $125,036,011 2045 $20,154,298 $216,050,309 $4,724,000 $75,584,000 $15,430,298 $140,466,309 2046 $20,557,384 $236,607,692 $4,724,000 $80,308,000 $15,833,384 $156,299,692 2047 $20,968,532 $257,576,224 $4,724,000 $85,032,000 $16,244,532 $172,544,224 2048 $21,387,902 $278,964,126 $4,724,000 $89,756,000 $16,663,902 $189,208,126 2049 $21,815,660 $300,779,786 $4,724,000 $94,480,000 $17,091,660 $206,299,786 2050 $22,277,921 $323,057,708 $4,724,000 $99,204,000 $17,553,921 $223,853,708 2051 $22,723,480 $345,781,188 $4,724,000 $103,928,000 $17,999,480 $241,853,188 2052 $23,177,950 $368,959,137 $4,724,000 $108,652,000 $18,453,950 $260,307,137 2053 $23,641,509 $392,600,646 $4,724,000 $113,376,000 $18,917,509 $279,224,646 2054 $24,114,339 $416,714,984 $4,724,000 $118,100,000 $19,390,339 $298,614,984 2055 $24,625,274 $441,340,259 $4,724,000 $122,824,000 $19,901,274 $318,516,259 2056 $25,117,780 $466,458,038 $4,724,000 $127,548,000 $20,393,780 $338,910,038 2057 $25,620,135 $492,078,174 $4,724,000 $132,272,000 $20,896,135 $359,806,174 2058 $26,132,538 $518,210,712 $4,724,000 $136,996,000 $21,408,538 $381,214,712 Total $518,210,712 $136,996,000 $381,214,712
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Assu mes bond is issued in 2029. Debt service is deferred for 1 year until 2030, funded by 12 months of capitalized interest. Debt service is shown through 2058, the final year of the 30-year bond term.
South of Jensen
High Absorption Scenario
MAST Revenue from
South of Jensen Revenue Bond Debt Service [1]
MAST Revenue Surplus/(Shortfall)
to Repay Revenue Bond
C
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-9
Table A-10
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Combined Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen Low Absorption (Nominal $) Year E. of Temperance S. of Jensen Total Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Formula A B C=A+B D=C+Prior year D F=E+Prior year F C-E D-F Source Table A-4 Table A-5 Table 2-3
2029 -- -- -- - -
2030 $140,716 $431,493 $572,209 $572,209 $6,332,000 $6,332,000 ($5,759,791) ($5,759,791) 2031 $502,357 $862,433 $1,364,790 $1,936,999 $6,332,000 $12,664,000 ($4,967,210) ($10,727,001) 2032 $991,023 $1,310,439 $2,301,462 $4,238,461 $6,332,000 $18,996,000 ($4,030,538) ($14,757,539) 2033 $1,632,282 $1,776,020 $3,408,303 $7,646,764 $6,332,000 $25,328,000 ($2,923,697) ($17,681,236) 2034 $2,374,954 $2,259,700 $4,634,654 $12,281,418 $6,332,000 $31,660,000 ($1,697,346) ($19,378,582) 2035 $3,386,892 $2,781,297 $6,168,189 $18,449,607 $6,332,000 $37,992,000 ($163,811) ($19,542,393) 2036 $4,513,716 $3,303,188 $7,816,904 $26,266,511 $6,332,000 $44,324,000 $1,484,904 ($18,057,489) 2037 $5,871,608 $3,844,843 $9,716,451 $35,982,962 $6,332,000 $50,656,000 $3,384,451 ($14,673,038) 2038 $7,276,305 $4,406,842 $11,683,148 $47,666,110 $6,332,000 $56,988,000 $5,351,148 ($9,321,890) 2039 $8,729,668 $4,989,784 $13,719,451 $61,385,561 $6,332,000 $63,320,000 $7,387,451 ($1,934,439) 2040 $10,210,545 $5,615,566 $15,826,112 $77,211,673 $6,332,000 $69,652,000 $9,494,112 $7,559,673 2041 $11,423,383 $6,242,672 $17,666,056 $94,877,728 $6,332,000 $75,984,000 $11,334,056 $18,893,728 2042 $12,633,393 $6,892,616 $19,526,009 $114,403,738 $6,332,000 $82,316,000 $13,194,009 $32,087,738 2043 $13,887,233 $7,566,061 $21,453,294 $135,857,032 $6,332,000 $88,648,000 $15,121,294 $47,209,032 2044 $15,186,174 $8,263,686 $23,449,861 $159,306,893 $6,332,000 $94,980,000 $17,117,861 $64,326,893 2045 $16,531,518 $9,009,692 $25,541,210 $184,848,103 $6,332,000 $101,312,000 $19,209,210 $83,536,103 2046 $17,924,600 $9,758,261 $27,682,861 $212,530,964 $6,332,000 $107,644,000 $21,350,861 $104,886,964 2047 $19,054,179 $10,533,169 $29,587,348 $242,118,312 $6,332,000 $113,976,000 $23,255,348 $128,142,312 2048 $19,435,262 $11,335,169 $30,770,432 $272,888,743 $6,332,000 $120,308,000 $24,438,432 $152,580,743 2049 $19,823,968 $12,165,037 $31,989,004 $304,877,748 $6,332,000 $126,640,000 $25,657,004 $178,237,748 2050 $20,220,447 $13,049,513 $33,269,960 $338,147,708 $6,332,000 $132,972,000 $26,937,960 $205,175,708 2051 $20,624,856 $13,938,035 $34,562,891 $372,710,598 $6,332,000 $139,304,000 $28,230,891 $233,406,598 2052 $21,037,353 $14,856,878 $35,894,231 $408,604,829 $6,332,000 $145,636,000 $29,562,231 $262,968,829 2053 $21,458,100 $15,806,900 $37,265,000 $445,869,829 $6,332,000 $151,968,000 $30,933,000 $293,901,829 2054 $21,887,262 $16,788,979 $38,676,241 $484,546,070 $6,332,000 $158,300,000 $32,344,241 $326,246,070 2055 $22,325,007 $17,832,668 $40,157,676 $524,703,746 $6,332,000 $164,632,000 $33,825,676 $360,071,746 2056 $22,771,508 $18,882,168 $41,653,675 $566,357,421 $6,332,000 $170,964,000 $35,321,675 $395,393,421 2057 $23,226,938 $19,966,514 $43,193,451 $609,550,872 $6,332,000 $177,296,000 $36,861,451 $432,254,872 2058 $23,691,476 $21,086,681 $44,778,157 $654,329,030 $6,332,000 $183,628,000 $38,446,157 $470,701,030 Total $388,772,724 $265,556,305 $654,329,030 $183,628,000 $470,701,030 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] A ssumes bond is issued in 2029. Debt service is deferred for 1 year until 2030, funded by 12 months of capitalized interest. Debt service is shown through 2058, the final year of the 30-year bond term.
E
Combined South SEDA Areas
South of Jensen
Low Absorption Scenario
MAST Revenue
from South SEDA
Annual
Revenue Bond Debt Service [1]
MAST Revenue Surplus/(Shortfall)
to Repay Revenue Bond
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-10
Table A-11
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Combined Predevelopment Cost Reimbursement Schedule - South of Jensen High Absorption (Nominal $) Year E. of Temperance S. of Jensen Total Cumulative Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative Formula A B C=A+B D=C+Prior year D F=E+Prior year F C-E D-F Source Table A-4 Table A-6 Table 2-3
2029 --- - - - - -
2030 $140,716 $1,673,584 $1,814,300 $1,814,300 $6,332,000 $6,332,000 ($4,517,700) ($4,517,700) 2031 $502,357 $3,396,299 $3,898,656 $5,712,955 $6,332,000 $12,664,000 ($2,433,344) ($6,951,045) 2032 $991,023 $5,187,253 $6,178,276 $11,891,232 $6,332,000 $18,996,000 ($153,724) ($7,104,768) 2033 $1,632,282 $7,048,487 $8,680,770 $20,572,001 $6,332,000 $25,328,000 $2,348,770 ($4,755,999) 2034 $2,374,954 $8,982,096 $11,357,050 $31,929,051 $6,332,000 $31,660,000 $5,025,050 $269,051 2035 $3,386,892 $11,009,509 $14,396,402 $46,325,453 $6,332,000 $37,992,000 $8,064,402 $8,333,453 2036 $4,513,716 $13,094,761 $17,608,477 $63,933,930 $6,332,000 $44,324,000 $11,276,477 $19,609,930 2037 $5,871,608 $15,259,019 $21,130,627 $85,064,556 $6,332,000 $50,656,000 $14,798,627 $34,408,556 2038 $7,276,305 $17,504,609 $24,780,915 $109,845,471 $6,332,000 $56,988,000 $18,448,915 $52,857,471 2039 $8,729,668 $17,854,702 $26,584,369 $136,429,841 $6,332,000 $63,320,000 $20,252,369 $73,109,841 2040 $10,210,545 $18,233,082 $28,443,627 $164,873,468 $6,332,000 $69,652,000 $22,111,627 $95,221,468 2041 $11,423,383 $18,597,744 $30,021,127 $194,894,595 $6,332,000 $75,984,000 $23,689,127 $118,910,595 2042 $12,633,393 $18,969,699 $31,603,091 $226,497,687 $6,332,000 $82,316,000 $25,271,091 $144,181,687 2043 $13,887,233 $19,349,093 $33,236,326 $259,734,013 $6,332,000 $88,648,000 $26,904,326 $171,086,013 2044 $15,186,174 $19,736,074 $34,922,249 $294,656,261 $6,332,000 $94,980,000 $28,590,249 $199,676,261 2045 $16,531,518 $20,154,298 $36,685,815 $331,342,077 $6,332,000 $101,312,000 $30,353,815 $230,030,077 2046 $17,924,600 $20,557,384 $38,481,984 $369,824,061 $6,332,000 $107,644,000 $32,149,984 $262,180,061 2047 $19,054,179 $20,968,532 $40,022,710 $409,846,771 $6,332,000 $113,976,000 $33,690,710 $295,870,771 2048 $19,435,262 $21,387,902 $40,823,165 $450,669,936 $6,332,000 $120,308,000 $34,491,165 $330,361,936 2049 $19,823,968 $21,815,660 $41,639,628 $492,309,563 $6,332,000 $126,640,000 $35,307,628 $365,669,563 2050 $20,220,447 $22,277,921 $42,498,369 $534,807,932 $6,332,000 $132,972,000 $36,166,369 $401,835,932 2051 $20,624,856 $22,723,480 $43,348,336 $578,156,268 $6,332,000 $139,304,000 $37,016,336 $438,852,268 2052 $21,037,353 $23,177,950 $44,215,303 $622,371,570 $6,332,000 $145,636,000 $37,883,303 $476,735,570 2053 $21,458,100 $23,641,509 $45,099,609 $667,471,179 $6,332,000 $151,968,000 $38,767,609 $515,503,179 2054 $21,887,262 $24,114,339 $46,001,601 $713,472,780 $6,332,000 $158,300,000 $39,669,601 $555,172,780 2055 $22,325,007 $24,625,274 $46,950,282 $760,423,061 $6,332,000 $164,632,000 $40,618,282 $595,791,061 2056 $22,771,508 $25,117,780 $47,889,287 $808,312,349 $6,332,000 $170,964,000 $41,557,287 $637,348,349 2057 $23,226,938 $25,620,135 $48,847,073 $857,159,422 $6,332,000 $177,296,000 $42,515,073 $679,863,422 2058 $23,691,476 $26,132,538 $49,824,014 $906,983,436 $6,332,000 $183,628,000 $43,492,014 $723,355,436 Total $388,772,724 $518,210,712 $906,983,436 $183,628,000 $723,355,436 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] A ssumes bond is issued in 2029. Debt service is deferred for 1 year until 2030, funded by 12 months of capitalized interest. Debt service is shown through 2058, the final year of the 30-year bond term.
Combined South SEDA Areas
South of Jensen
High Absorption Scenario
MAST Revenue
from South SEDA Revenue Bond Debt Service [1]
MAST Revenue Surplus/(Shortfall)
to Repay Revenue Bond
Annual
E
Prepared by EPS 8/31/2026 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 PFFP 8.27.26 alt.xlsm 2-A-11
Table A-12
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Value to Lien Requirement (2029$)
Item
East of
Temperance
South of Jensen
Low Absorption
South of Jensen
High Absorption
East of Temperance
and South of Jensen
Low Absorption
East of Temperance
and South of Jensen
High Absorption
Bond Issuance Scenario [1]
Year Issued 2029 2029 2029 2029 2029
Bond Size $21,856,000 $64,208, 000 $64,208,000 $86,064,000 $86,064,000 Value Requirement (3:1 value to lien) $65,568,000 $192,624,000 $192,624,000 $258,192,000 $258,192,000 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] See Table 2-3.
Individual Areas Repayment Combined Areas Repayment
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Table A-13
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Estimated South SEDA Bond Sizing Summary (2026$)
Item Assumption
East of
Temperance
South of
Jensen Total
Maximum Special Taxes Available for Debt Service
Estimated Maximum Annual Special Taxes [2] $12,571,486 $14,391,101 $26,962,588 Less Estimated Administration Costs 4.00% ($503,000) ($576,000) ($1,079,000) Less Delinquency Coverage 10.00% ($1,257,000) ($1,439,000) ($2,696,000) Adjustment for Rounding $8,514 $3,899 $12,412
Estimated Gross Debt Service (Rounded) $10,820,000 $12,380,000 $23,200,000 Total Bond Size
Total Bond Size without Tax Escalation $148,935,000 $170,409,000 $319,344,000 Adjustment for Rounding $65,000 $91,000 $156,000
Total Bond Size (Rounded) $149,000,000 $170,500,000 $319,500,000 Increase for Annual Escalation [3] 15% $22,350,000 $25,575,000 $47,925,000 Total Bond Size (Rounded) $171,350,000 $196,075,000 $367,425,000 Estimated Bond Proceeds
Total Bond Size (Rounded) $171,350,000 $196,075,000 $367,425,000 Less Capitalized Interest 12 months ($10,281,000) ($11,765,000) ($22,046,000) Less Bond Reserve Fund 1-yr. debt service ($10,820,000) ($12,380,000) ($23,200,000) Less Issuance Cost 5.00% ($8,568,000) ($9,804,000) ($18,372,000) Estimated Bond Proceeds $141,681,000 $162,126,000 $303,807,000 Assumptions [4]
Interest Rate 6.00%
Term 30 years
Annual Escalation 2%
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
Note: Total estimated bond proceeds for the predevelopment costs bond sizing are approximately equal to the total predevelopment cos t
[1] Predevelopment costs bond sizing is a subset of total SEDA bond sizing at buildout. [2] See Table A-3 for tax maximum annual special taxes for South SEDA at buildout. [3] Assu mes special taxes are escalated 2.0% annually for 30 years, which increases total bond size by approximately 15% to 20%. This estimate uses 15% to be conservative [4] Estimated bond sizing based on conservative assumptions. The interest rate will be determined at the time of the bond sal e. This analysis is based on an assumed bond South SEDA Bond Sizing at Buildout
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Table A-14
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Estimated South SEDA Bonding Capacity at Buildout (2026$) Max. Annual
Special Units/
Item Tax Rate [1] Bldg. Sq. Ft. Amount % of Total Amoun t per Unit/1K Sq. Ft. Amount per Unit/1K Sq. Ft.
Formula A B C = A *B (res.) D = C / Total Tax E= D x total bond E / B (res.) F = D x total bond F/ B (res.) C = A *B/1,000 (nonres.) E/B*1,000 (nonres.) F/B*1,000 (nonres.) Residential per unit units per unit per unit
Single Family $1,300 8,140 $10,582,000 84.2% $119,259,433 $14,651 $119,259,433 $14,651 Multifamily $1,000 1,930 $1,930,000 15.4% $21,751,153 $11,270 $21,751,153 $11,270 Subtotal Residential Land Uses 10,070 $12,512,000 99.5% $141,010,587 $141,010,587 Nonresidential per 1K sq. ft. sq. ft. per 1K sq. ft. per 1K sq. ft.
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) $918 6,800 $6,242 0.0% $70,352 $10,346 $70,352 $10,346 Office $717 - - 0.0% - - - -
Retail (Community Town Center) $918 20,500 $18,819 0.1% $212,091 $10,346 $212,091 $10,346 Retail (Neighborhood Town Center) $459 75,000 $34,425 0.3% $387,971 $5,173 $387,971 $5,173 Industrial - Flex R&D $765 - - 0.0% - - - -
Subtotal Nonresidential 102,300 $59,486 0.4% $670,413 $670,413 Total [3] $12,571,486 100.0% $141,681,000 $141,681,000
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] See Table A-3 for estimated maximum special tax rates. [2] Assumes 2% annual tax escalation for 30 years, which increases total bond size by approximately 15%.
[3] S ee Table A-13 for total bond size and total bond proceeds.
East of Temperance
Maximum Annual Special Tax Bond Size [2] Bond Proceeds
East of Temperance
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Table A-14
City of Fresno South SEDA
Public Finance Analysis
Estimated South SEDA Bonding Capacity at Buildout (2026$) Max. Annual
Special
Item Tax Rate [1]
Formula A
Residential per unit
Single Family $1,300
Multifamily $1,000
Subtotal Residential Land Uses
Nonresidential per 1K sq. ft.
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) $918
Office $717
Retail (Community Town Center) $918
Retail (Neighborhood Town Center) $459
Industrial - Flex R&D $765
Subtotal Nonresidential
Total [3]
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] See Table A-3 for estimated maximum special tax rates. [2] Assumes 2% annual tax escalation for 30 years, which increases total bond size by approximately 15%.
[3] S ee Table A-13 for total bond size and total bond proceeds.
Units/
Bldg. Sq. Ft. Amount % of Total Amount per Unit/1K Sq. Ft. Amount per Unit/1K Sq. Ft.
B C = A *B (res.) D = C / Total Tax E= D x total bond E / B (res.) F = D x total bond F/ B (res.) C = A *B/1,000 (nonres.) E/B*1,000 (nonres.) F/B*1,000 (nonres.) per unit
- - 0.0% $0 $0 $0 -
- - 0.0% $0 $0 $0 -
0$ 0 0 .0% $ 0 $0
per 1K sq. ft.
- - 0.0% $0 - $0 -
866,250 $621,101 4.3% $6,997,148 $8,078 $6,997,148 $8,078 - - 0.0% $0 - $0 -
- - 0.0% $0 - $0 -
18,000,000 $13,770,000 95.7% $155,128,852 $8,618 $155,128,852 $8,618 18,866,250 $14,391,101 100.0% $162,126,000 $162,126,000 $14,391,101 100.0% $162,126,000 $162,126,000
South of Jensen
South of Jensen
Maximum Annual Special Tax Bond Size [1] Bond Proceeds
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Section 3
Supporting Calculations for Fiscal Impact Analysis
Appendix 3-A
General Assumptions
Appendix 3-B
Revenue-Estimating Tables
Appendix 3-C
Expenditure-Estimating Tables
Appendix 3-D
Supporting Tables for Revenue Estimates
Appendix 3-E
Supporting Tables for Assessed Value
Appendix 3-F
Supporting Tables for General Fund Impacts During
Years of Subsidy
Appendix 3-A
General Assumptions
Table A-1. Estimated Project Service Population ............................................................................... 3-A-1 Table A-2. City of Fresno Service Population Basis ........................................................................... 3-A-2 Table A-3. Residential Land Use Assumptions ..................................................................................... 3-A-3 Table A-4. Nonresidential Land Use Assumptions ............................................................................. 3-A-4 Table A-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Project Service Population
Description
Occupied Dwelling Units/
Building Square Feet [1]
Service
Population [1]
Occupied Dwelling Units/
Building Square Feet [1]
Service
Population [1]
Occupied Dwelling Units/
Building Square Feet [1]
Service
Population [1]
Residential Occupied Units Residents Occupied Units Residents Occupied Units Residents Single Family
Neighborhood Residential 7,792 25,342 - - 7,792 25,342 Multifamily
Neighborhood Town Center 287 693 - - 287 693
Community Town Center 579 1,398 - - 579 1,398
Mixed-Use Residential 981 2,369 - - 981 2,369
Subtotal Multifamily 1,847 4,461 - - 1,847 4,461
Total Residential 9,639 29,803 - - 9,639 29,803
Nonresidential Occupied Bldg. Sq. Ft. Employees Occupied Bldg. Sq. Ft. Employees Occupied Bldg. Sq. Ft. Employees Office
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) 6,460 18 - - 6,460 18 Office - - 822,938 2,351 822,938 2,351
Subtotal Office 6,460 18 822,938 2,351 829,398 2,370
Retail
Retail (Neighborhood Town Center) 19,475 49 - - 19,475 49 Retail (Community Town Center) 71,250 158 - - 71,250 158 Subtotal Retail 90,725 207 - - 90,725 207
Industrial (Flex R&D)
Industrial (Flex R&D) - - 17,100,000 21,375 17,100,000 21,375 Total Nonresidential 97,185 225 17,922,938 23,726 18,020,123 23,952 Persons Served [2] - 29,915 - 11,839 - 41,755
Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Based on occupied land uses and population and employment density assumptions in Table A-3. [2] Persons Served defined as total project area population plus the employee to resident equivalency factor in Table A-2 .
East of Temperance South of Jensen Total Buildout
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Table A-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
City of Fresno Service Population Basis
Item # %
Employment Status of Fresno Residents [2] Formula: a = b * 557,032 b 2 c = b * c
Not in Labor Force [3] 339,108 60.9% 100% 60.9%
Employed in the City [4] 122,197 21.9% 50% 11.0%
Employed Outside of the City 95,727 17.2% 67% 11.5%
Total Residents 557,032 100.0% 83.4%
Residence Status of Fresno Employees [2] Formula: a = b * 239,800 b [2] c = b * c
Live in the City [4] 122,197 51.0% 50% 25.5%
Live Outside the City 117,603 49.0% 33% 16.1%
Total Jobs 239,800 100.0% 41.6%
Employee to Resident Equivalency Factor [5] (41.6% / 83.4%) = 49.9% Service Population Calculation
Amount Attributable to Residents (@ 100%) 557,032 82.3% Amount Attributable to Employees (@ 49.9%) 119,660 17.7% Total Service Population 676,692 100.0%
Source: LEHD OnTheMap 2023; California Department of Finance (DOF) Table E-5; California Employment Development Department (EDD); EPS. [1] Represents EPS estimate of how various types of residents and employees relate to each other in terms of demand for City Services. [2] Distribution and total jobs based on "Primary Job" data from U.S. Census (OnTheMap 2023). Total residents based on 2025 estimates provided by DOF in Table E-5.
[3] Represents Fresno residents who are under the age of 16 (and therefore not in the labor force), residents who are 16 and older but not in the labor force, self-employed individuals, military employees, and residents who are unemployed. [4] The number of residents who are employed in the City and the number of employees in the City who are residents are the same, representing the same group of unique individuals. This group is reflected both in the Total Residents and the Total Jobs to demonstrate the composition of the totals, with their weighting split evenly between the resident and employee groups. [5] Equals weighted average of residents divided by weighted average of employees.
Existing
Weight [1]
Weighted
Average
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Table A-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Residential Land Use Assumptions
Description Source/Assumption Single-Family Multifamily Persons per Household Census ACS 2024 5-Year Estimates 3.25 2.41 Assessed Value per Unit Table E-2 $525,000 $335,000
Monthly Rent per Unit Table E-3 - $2,200
Annual HH Income [1] See footnote $143,000 $88,000
Taxable Retail Spending as % of Income 2024 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey 22% 25% Average Annual Taxable Spending per HH [2] See footnote $31,889 $21,765 Vacancy Rate CA Dept. of Finance, Table E-5, 1/1/26 4.28% 4.28% Source: City of Fresno; US 2024 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey; US Census ACS 2024 5-Year Estimates; CA Department of Finance; CoStar; EPS. [1] Market rate single-family household income assumption assumes that annual mortgage payments, plus property taxes and insurance are 30% of income. Mortgage payments assume a 20% down payment, 30-yr term, 6.5% fixed interest. Taxes and insurance are assumed to equal 2% of home value. Includes a $150/month estimate for HOA dues.
Market-rate multifamily household income assumes 30% of income is spent on rent. [2] Annual taxable spending per household based on the average household income and the associated percentage of taxable retail spending.
Residential
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Table A-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Nonresidential Land Use Assumptions
Description Source
Neighborhood Town
Center Retail
Community Town
Center Retail Office
Industrial
(Flex R&D)
Average Worker Salary CEDD 2024 OEWS $43,093 $43,093 $87,705 $49,811 Annual Rent per Net Sq. Ft. Table E-5, Table E-6, and Table E-7 $24 $24 $25 $10 Assessed Value per Gross Sq. Ft. [1] See Footnote $300 $300 $175 $190 Vacancy Rate [2] See Footnote 5% 5% 5% 5%
Onsite Taxable Retail Sales per Gross Sq. Ft. Table D-5 $260 $310 - - Retail Market Support Adjustment [2] See Footnote 0% 25% - - Employee Density (Sq. Ft. per Employee) [2] See Footnote 400 450 350 800 Annual Hotel Room Night Generation per 1,000 Sq. Ft. [2] See Footnote 3 4 15 5 Source: City of Fresno, CEDD 2024 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics Survey; EPS. [1] Nonresidential assessed value assumptions are estimated using an income capitalization approach based on market rent assumptions, vacancy rates, operating expense ratios, and capitalization rates.
For assumptions and calculation of assessed value, refer to Table E-4. [2] Based on assumptions included in the City of Fresno General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis, prepared by EPS in 2023.
Commercial Employment
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Appendix 3-B
Revenue-Estimating Tables
Table B-1. Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Fresno (2025$) ....................... 3-B-1 Table B-2. Estimated Annual Project Revenues at Buildout (2025$) ......................................... 3-B-2 Table B-3. East of Temperance Estimated Property Tax Revenues at Buildout (2025$) .... 3-B-3 Table B-4. South of Jensen Estimated Property Tax Revenues at Buildout (2025$) ............ 3-B-4 Table B-5. Estimated Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2025$) ............................................ 3-B-5 Table B-6. Estimated Annual Taxable Sales From Project Residential Uses (2025$) ........... 3-B-6 Table B-7. Estimated Annual Taxable Sales From Project Nonresidential Uses (2025$) .... 3-B-7 Table B-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Revenue-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Fresno (2025$) General Fund Revenue Items
Estimating
Procedure
Annual General Fund Revenues
Property Tax Case Study Table B-3 & Table B-4 $182,185,000 NA - VLF Swap [2] Case Study Table B-3 & Table B-4 $75,000,000 NA - Sales Tax Case Study Table B-5 $137,162,000 NA -
Business License Employees $23,389,000 239,800 $97.54
Franchise Fees Service Population $20,005,000 676,692 $29.56 Room Tax [3] $15,514,000 NA -
Other Taxes and Fees Service Population $7,395,000 676,692 $10.93 Charges for Current Services [4] $44,433,000 NA -
Intergovernmental Revenues [3] $11,613,000 NA -
Intra-governmental Revenues [3] $14,014,000 NA -
Cannabis Service Population $3,270,000 676,692 $4.83
All Other [3] $1,043,000 NA -
Total Annual General Fund Revenues $535,023,000
Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; EPS. [1] Average revenues for FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 (all figures in 2025$), rounded to the nearest $1,000. [2] The FY 2025-26 VLF Swap revenue is not separately identified in the City budget. The amount in this analysis is estimated based on FY 2025-26 General Fund Overview and Five-Year Forecast property tax revenue chart, in which the VLF Swap is included within total Property Tax revenues. The value is approximated for fiscal modeling purposes. [3] This revenue source is not expected to be affected by the Project and therefore is not estimated in this analysis. [4] This analysis assumes that all revenues are fully dedicated to specific General Fund departmental costs (offsetting revenues). Because these revenues are budget-neutral and are not discretionary, they are not estimated in this analysis.
Case Study
Reference
Service
Population
Revenue
Multiplier
3-Year Average
Budgeted Revenue [1]
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Table B-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Project Revenues at Buildout (2025$)
General Fund Revenue Items
Estimating
Procedure Amount
Percentage
of Total Amount
Percentage
of Total Amount
Percentage
of Total
Annual General Fund Revenues
Property Tax [1] Case Study Table B-3 & Table B-4 $15,277,595 58.5% $8,465,853 44.6% $23,743,449 52.6% VLF Swap Case Study Table B-3 & Table B-4 $7,161,238 27.4% $5,167,193 27.2% $12,328,431 27.3% Sales Tax Case Study Table B-5 $2,241,211 8.6% $2,445,391 12.9% $4,686,602 10.4% Prop. 172 Sales Tax Case Study Table B-5 $56,030 0.2% $61,135 0.3% $117,165 0.3% Business License Employees Table B-1 $21,993 0.1% $2,314,258 12.2% $2,336,252 5.2% Franchise Fees Service Population Table B-1 $884,299 3.4% $349,973 1.8% $1,234,272 2.7% Other Taxes and Fees Service Population Table B-1 $326,975 1.3% $129,405 0.7% $456,380 1.0% Cannabis Service Population Table B-1 $144,491 0.6% $57,184 0.3% $201,676 0.4% Total Annual General Fund Revenues $26,113,834 100.0% $18,990,392 100.0% $45,104,226 100.0% Additional Impacts
Measure P Sales Tax Revenue Table B-5 $840,454 - $917,022 - $1,757,476 - Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; EPS. [1] Includes the City of Fresno General Fund allocation and the Fresno County Fire Protection District allocation estimated to flow to the City's General Fund in the 11th year following annexation. See Table D-3.
East of Temperance South of Jensen Total Buildout
Case Study
Reference
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Table B-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
East of Temperance Estimated Property Tax Revenues at Buildout (2025$) Employment
Item Formula Single Family Multifamily
Neighborhood Town
Center Retail
Community Town
Center Retail Office Total
Total Assessed Value of Project
Total Assessed Value [1] Table D-4 a $4,273,500,000 $646,550,000 $6,150,000 $22,500,000 $1,190,000 $4,949,890,000 Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.000% b = a * 1.00% $42,735,000 $6,465,500 $61,500 $225,000 $11,900 $49,498,900 Estimated Post-ERAF Property Tax Allocation [2]
City of Fresno General Fund 30.865% g = b * 30.86% $13,189,950 $1,995,545 $18,982 $69,445 $3,673 $15,277,595 Fresno County General Fund 8.026% e = b * 8.03% $3,429,784 $518,902 $4,936 $18,058 $955 $3,972,634 Remaining Taxing Entities/ERAF 61.110% f = b * 61.11% $26,115,266 $3,951,053 $37,583 $137,497 $7,272 $30,248,671 Property Tax In Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Citywide Assessed Value [3] $51,840,441,573 g
Total Assessed Value of Project h = a $4,273,500,000 $646,550,000 $6,150,000 $22,500,000 $1,190,000 $4,949,890,000 Total Assessed Value i = g + h $56,113,941,573 $52,486,991,573 $51,846,591,573 $51,862,941,573 $51,841,631,573 $264,152,097,865 Percentage Change in AV j = g / h 8.244% 1.247% 0.012% 0.043% 0.002% 9.548% Property Tax In Lieu of VLF [4]
Property Tax In Lieu of VLF $75,000,000 k = i * $75,000,000 $6,182,673 $935,394 $8,897 $32,552 $1,722 $7,161,238 Source: City of Fresno FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno County; EPS. [1] For assumptions and calculation of assessed value, refer to Table D-4. [2] Upon annexation, property tax revenues formerly allocated to the Fresno County Fire Protection District would be allocated to the City of Fresno General Fund. Under the City–Fresno County Fire Protection District Property Tax Allocation Agreement (August 19, 2025), the City will reimburse the District 100 percent of the Base Year Allocation of property tax revenues for a period of 10 years following annexation, with up to a 2 percent annual increase.
See Table D-3 for the property tax revenue reimbursement schedule. [3] Fiscal Year 2024-25 Fresno County Assessment Roll Values for City of Fresno. This represents the most recent publicly-available data. This figure is intended to include citywide secured, unsecured, and homeowner exemption, but this has not been confirmed.
[4] The FY 2025-26 VLF Swap revenue is not separately identified in the City of Fresno FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget. The amount presented herein is estimated based on the Property Tax revenue chart, in which the VLF Swap is included within total Property Tax revenues. The value is approximated for fiscal modeling purposes.
Source/
Assumption
East of Temperance
Retail
East of Temperance
Property Tax Revenues
Residential
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Table B-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
South of Jensen Estimated Property Tax Revenues at Buildout (2025$) Item Formula Office Industrial (Flex R&D) Total
Total Assessed Value of Project
Total Assessed Value [1] Table D-4 a $151,594,000 $3,420,000,000 $3,571,594,000 Property Tax Revenue (1% of Assessed Value) 1.000% b = a * 1.00% $1,515,940 $34,200,000 $35,715,940 Estimated Post-ERAF Property Tax Allocation [2]
City of Fresno General Fund 23.703% g = b * 23.70% $359,328 $8,106,526 $8,465,853 Fresno County General Fund 9.004% e = b * 9.00% $136,497 $3,079,404 $3,215,901 Remaining Taxing Entities/ERAF 67.293% f = b * 67.29% $1,020,115 $23,014,070 $24,034,186 Property Tax In Lieu of Motor Vehicle In-Lieu Fee Revenue (VLF) Total Citywide Assessed Value [3] $51,840,441,573 g
Total Assessed Value of Project h = a $151,594,000 $3,420,000,000 $3,571,594,000 Total Assessed Value i = g + h $51,992,035,573 $55,260,441,573 $107,252,477,146 Percentage Change in AV j = g / h 0.29% 6.60% 6.89%
Property Tax In Lieu of VLF [4]
Property Tax In Lieu of VLF $75,000,000 k = i * $75,000,000 $219,318 $4,947,875 $5,167,193 Source: City of Fresno FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno County; EPS. [1] For assumptions and calculation of assessed value, refer to Table D-4. [2] Upon annexation, property tax revenues formerly allocated to the Fresno County Fire Protection District would be allocated to the City of Fresno General Fund. Under the City–Fresno County Fire Protection District Property Tax Allocation Agreement (August 19, 2025), the City will reimburse the District 100 percent of the Base Year Allocation of property tax revenues for a period of 10 years following annexation, with up to a 2 percent annual increase.
See Table D-3 for the property tax revenue reimbursement schedule. [3] Fiscal Year 2024-25 Fresno County Assessment Roll Values for City of Fresno. This represents the most recent publicly-available data. This figure is intended to include citywide secured, unsecured, and homeowner exemption, but this has not been confirmed.
[4] The FY 2025-26 VLF Swap revenue is not separately identified in the City of Fresno FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget. The amount presented herein is estimated based on the Property Tax revenue chart, in which the VLF Swap is included within total Property Tax revenues. The value is approximated for fiscal modeling purposes.
Source/
Assumption
South of Jensen
Employment
South of Jensen
Property Tax Revenues
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Table B-5
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Taxable Sales and Use Tax Revenue (2025$)
Employment
Item Single Family Multifamily
Neighborhood Town
Center Retail
Community Town
Center Retail Office Total Office
Industrial
(Flex R&D) Total
Taxable Retail Sales by Source [1]
Residential Taxable Retail Sales Sources
Household Spending [2] $186,353,582 $30,156,629 - - - - - - - - Visitor-Generated Retail Sales [3] $483,862 $114,724 - - - - - - - - Total Residential Taxable Retail Sales Sources $186,837,444 $30,271,353 - - - - - - - - Nonresidential Uses [4]
Worker-Generated Retail Sales [5] - - $97,785 $317,999 - $415,783 $9,611,073 $49,622,539 $59,233,612 $59,649,396 Onsite Retail Sales [6] - - - $5,521,875 - $5,521,875 - - - $5,521,875 Visitor-Generated Retail Sales [3] - - $3,628 $17,699 - $21,327 $766,566 $5,309,550 $6,076,116 $6,097,443 Business to Business Taxable Sales [7] - - $194,750 $712,500 - $907,250 $8,229,375 $171,000,000 $179,229,375 $180,136,625 Total Nonresidential Taxable Retail Sales Sources - - $296,163 $6,570,072 - $6,866,235 $18,607,015 $225,932,089 $244,539,104 $251,405,339 Sales Tax Revenues From Residential and Nonresidential Taxable Retail Sales General Fund Sales Tax Revenue
Total General Fund Sales Tax Revenue $1,868,374 $302,714 $2,962 $65,701 $1,461 $2,241,211 $186,070 $2,259,321 $2,445,391 $4,686,602 Prop. 172 Sales Tax Revenue $46,709 $7,568 $74 $1,643 $37 $56,030 $4,652 $56,483 $61,135 $117,165 Additional Impacts
Total Measure P Sales Tax Revenue $700,640 $113,518 $1,111 $24,638 $548 $840,454 $69,776 $847,245 $917,022 $1,757,476 Source: City of Fresno FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; EPS.
[1] For assumptions and calculation for residential taxable retail sales see Table B-6. [2] Taxable retail sales captured in Fresno represent the portion of total taxable retail spending assumed to be spent and taxable within the City of Fresno based on a retail expenditure capture rate assumption. [3] Captured visitor-generated retail sales represent the portion of visitor spending associated with residential and nonresidential development assumed to occur within and be taxable in the City of Fresno. [4] For assumptions and calculation for nonresidential taxable retail sales see Table B-7. [5] Captured worker-generated retail sales are estimated by applying a retail expenditure capture rate to taxable retail spending generated by employees associated with project nonresidential development, reflecting the portion of expenditures anticipated to occur within and be taxable.
[6] Onsite retail sales are estimated based on taxable retail sales per square foot assumptions applied to retail development within the project area and adjusted to reflect anticipated market support and sales capture conditions [7] Business-to-business taxable sales are estimated by applying taxable business transaction assumptions to nonresidential development within the project area to reflect purchases and transactions subject to local sales tax.
Residential Retail Employment
Total
Buildout
East of Temperance South of Jensen
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Table B-6
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales From Project Residential Uses (2025$) Item Formula Single Family Multifamily Total Buildout
Residential Taxable Retail Sales Sources
Household Spending
Households (Occupied Housing Units) Table A-1 d 7,792 1,847 9,639 Estimated Annual Household Income Table A-3 a $143,000 $88,000 Household Taxable Retail Spending as a Percent of Income [1] Table A-3 b 22% 25% Annual Household Taxable Retail Spending c = a * b $31,889 $21,765 Total Household Retail Spending e = c * d $248,471,442 $40,208,839 $288,680,281 Taxable Retail Sales Captured in Fresno 75% of Retail Expenditures f = e * 75% $186,353,582 $30,156,629 $216,510,211 Visitor-Generated Retail Sales
Annual Visitor Days EPS Assumption [2] g = units * 1 7,792 1,847 9,639 Annual Visitor-Generated Taxable Retail Sales $69 per Visitor Day h = g * $69 $537,624 $127,471 $665,095 Captured Visitor-Generated Retail Sales 90% of Retail Expenditures i = h * 90% $483,862 $114,724 $598,586 Total Residential Taxable Retail Sales j = f + i $186,837,444 $30,271,353 $217,108,797 Sales Tax Revenues From Residential Taxable Retail Sales General Fund Sales Tax Revenue
Total General Fund Retail Sales Tax Revenue 1.00% of Taxable Sales k = j * 1.00% $1,868,374 $302,714 $2,171,088 Prop. 172 Sales Tax Revenue [3] 0.025% of Taxable Sales l = j * 0.03% $46,709 $7,568 $54,277 Additional Impacts
Total Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [4] 0.375% of Taxable Sales m = j * 0.38% $700,640 $113,518 $814,158 Source: City of Fresno; US 2024 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey; EPS. [1] Based on the US 2024 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey. [2] Annual visitor days are estimated based on the assumption that each new occupied residential unit generates one hotel room night per year. [3] This study estimates the City receives 5% of the 0.50% Proposition 172 sales tax revenues generated in the City. [4] Approved in November 2018, Measure P is a citywide three-eighths cent tax to be used for funding City parks and cultural arts.
Source/Assumption
East of Temperance
Residential
Annual Taxable Sales
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Table B-7
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Taxable Sales From Project Nonresidential Uses (2025$) Employment
Item Formula
Neighborhood
Town Center Retail
Community Town
Center Retail Office Total Office
Industrial
(Flex R&D) Total
Nonresidential Taxable Retail Sales Sources
Worker-Generated Retail Sales
Building Sq. Ft. Table A-1 a 19,475 71,250 6,460 - 822,938 17,100,000 - - Employee Density (Sq. Ft. per Employee) Table A-4 b 400 450 350 - 350 800 - - Workers c = a / b 49 158 18 225 2,351 21,375 23,726 23,952 Weekly Taxable Retail Spending per Worker CEDD 2024 OEWS d $46 $46 $95 $188 $95 $54 $148 - Annual Taxable Retail Spending per Worker 48 Working Weeks per Year e = f * 48 $2,232 $2,232 $4,542 $9,005 $4,542 $2,579 $7,121 $16,126 Total Annual Taxable Worker Retail Spending by Land Use f = c * e $108,650 $353,332 $83,829 $545,811 $10,678,970 $55,136,155 $65,815,125 $66,360,936 Captured Worker-Generated Retail Sales 90% of Retail Expenditures g = f * 90% $97,785 $317,999 $75,446 $491,230 $9,611,073 $49,622,539 $59,233,612 $59,724,842 Onsite Retail Sales
On-Site Taxable Retail Sales per Gross Square Foot Table D-5 h $260 $310 - - - - - - Market Support Adjustment Table A-4 i - 25.00% - - - - - - Taxable Retail Sales from Non-Residents and Non-Employees j = a * h * i - $5,521,875 - 5,521,875 - - - $5,521,875 Visitor-Generated Retail Sales
Annual Hotel Room Night Generation per 1,000 Sq. Ft. Table A-4 k 3 4 15 - 15 5 - - Annual Visitor Days EPS Assumption l = (a * k) / 1,000 sq. ft. 58 285 97 440 12,344 85,500 97,844 98,284 Taxable Retail Sales $69 per Visitor Day m = l * $69 $4,031 $19,665 $6,686 $30,382 $851,740 $5,899,500 $6,751,240 $6,781,623 Captured Visitor-Generated Retail Sales 90% of Retail Expenditures n = m * 90% $3,628 $17,699 $6,017 $27,344 $766,566 $5,309,550 $6,076,116 $6,103,460 Business to Business Taxable Sales
Annual Business to Business Taxable Transactions per SF $10 per Square Foot o = a * $10 $194,750 $712,500 $64,600 $971,850 $8,229,375 $171,000,000 $179,229,375 $180,201,225 Total Nonresidential Taxable Retail Sales Sources p = g + j + n + o $296,163 $6,570,072 $146,064 $7,012,299 $18,607,015 $225,932,089 $244,539,104 $251,551,403 Sales Tax Revenues From Nonresidential Taxable Retail Sales General Fund Sales Tax Revenue
Total General Fund Retail Sales Tax Revenue 1.000% of Taxable Sales q = p * 1.000% $2,962 $65,701 $1,461 $70,123 $186,070 $2,259,321 $2,445,391 $2,515,514 Prop. 172 Sales Tax Revenue [1] 0.025% of Taxable Sales r = p * 0.025% $74 $1,643 $37 $1,753 $4,652 $56,483 $61,135 $62,888 Additional Impacts
Total Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [2] 0.375% of Taxable Sales s = p * 0.357% $1,111 $24,638 $548 $26,296 $69,776 $847,245 $917,022 $943,318 Source: City of Fresno, Fresno County, CEDD 2024 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics Survey; EPS. [1] This study estimates the City receives 5% of the 0.50% Proposition 172 sales tax revenues generated in the City. [2] Approved in November 2018, Measure P is a citywide three-eighths cent tax to be used for funding City parks and cultural arts.
Nonresidential
Annual Taxable Sales
Total
BuildoutSource/Assumption
Retail
East of Temperance South of Jensen
Employment
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Appendix 3-C
Expenditure-Estimating Tables
Table C-1. Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Fresno (2025$) ................ 3-C-1 Table C-2. Estimated Annual Project Expenditures at Buildout (2025$) .................................. 3-C-2 Table C-3. Fire and Police Department Expenditure Calculations (2025$) ............................. 3-C-3 Table C-4. Project Comprehensive Street Maintenance
Expenditures at Buildout (2025$) ....................................................................................... 3-C-4 Table C-5. Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (2025$) .................................... 3-C-5 Table C-6. City of Fresno Estimated Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) ........................................... 3-C-6 Table C-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Expenditure-Estimating Procedures Based on City of Fresno (2025$) 3-Year Average Offsetting 3-Year Average Population Net Adjusted Estimating Budgeted Revenue Net City or Persons Expenditure Adjustment Expenditure Item Procedure Expenditures [2] Expenditures Served Multiplier Factor [3] Multiplier General Fund Expenditures
General Government [4] Persons Served Multiplier - $43,769,075 $5,080,225 $38,688,851 676,692 $57.17 75% $42.88 Economic Development Persons Served Multiplier - $2,840,500 - $2,840,500 676,692 $4.20 75% $3.15 Finance Persons Served Multiplier - $10,140,039 $1,411,827 $8,728,212 676,692 $12.90 75% $9.67 Fire Case Study Table C-3 $91,159,387 $11,702,721 $79,456,666 - - - - Animal Center Persons Served Multiplier - $8,279,009 - $8,279,009 676,692 $12.23 75% $9.18 Capital Projects Persons Served Multiplier - $5,758,253 - $5,758,253 676,692 $8.51 75% $6.38 General Services Persons Served Multiplier - $1,779,080 - $1,779,080 676,692 $2.63 100% $2.63 Information Services Persons Served Multiplier - $242,279 - $242,279 676,692 $0.36 100% $0.36 PARCS Persons Served Multiplier - $26,280,053 $2,501,336 $23,778,716 676,692 $35.14 75% $26.35 Personnel Persons Served Multiplier - $6,825,374 $4,982 $6,820,392 676,692 $10.08 100% $10.08 Planning & Development Persons Served Multiplier - $54,607,232 $38,929,176 $15,678,056 676,692 $23.17 100% $23.17 Police Case Study Table C-3 $259,806,463 $13,313,996 $246,492,468 - - - - Public Utilities Persons Served Multiplier - $1,991,219 - $1,991,219 676,692 $2.94 100% $2.94 Public Works Persons Served Multiplier - $34,316,218 $12,062,145 $22,254,073 676,692 $32.89 100% $32.89 Total General Fund Expenditures - $547,794,183 $85,006,408 $462,787,774 - - - $169.68 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts
CSM Expenditures [5] Case Study Table C-5 $91,186,600 - $91,186,600 - - - - Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; EPS. [1] Average expenditures for FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 (all figures in 2025$). [2] For analytical purposes, the offsetting revenue percentage identified in the City of Fresno 2023 Fiscal Impact Analysis was applied to the three-year average budgeted expenditures to estimate the updated three-year average offsetting revenues. [3] Adjustment factors determined through conversations with the City. Represents percent of net departmental expenditures estimated to vary based on service population. [4] Includes Office of the Mayor and City Manager, and the City Council, City Attorney, and City Clerk Offices. [5] For assumptions and calculation of assessed value, refer to Table C-5.
Existing GF Expenditures [1]
Case
Study
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Table C-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Annual Project Expenditures at Buildout (2025$) Item Estimating Source Amount
Percentage
of Total Amount
Percentage
of Total Amount
Percentage
of Total
General Fund Expenditures
General Government [1] Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $1,282,776 7.08% $507,675 5.22% $1,790,450 6.43% Economic Development Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $94,180 0.52% $37,273 0.38% $131,453 0.47% Finance Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $289,394 1.60% $114,532 1.18% $403,926 1.45% Fire Case Study Table C-3 $3,494,434 19.27% $887,046 9.12% $4,381,481 15.73% Animal Center Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $274,501 1.51% $108,637 1.12% $383,138 1.38% Capital Projects Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $190,922 1.05% $75,560 0.78% $266,482 0.96% General Services Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $78,650 0.43% $31,127 0.32% $109,777 0.39% Information Services Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $10,711 0.06% $4,239 0.04% $14,950 0.05% PARCS Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $788,412 4.35% $312,024 3.21% $1,100,436 3.95% Personnel Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $301,518 1.66% $119,330 1.23% $420,847 1.51% Planning & Development Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $693,100 3.82% $274,303 2.82% $967,403 3.47% Police Case Study Table C-3 $9,560,318 52.73% $6,828,756 70.22% $16,389,075 58.84% Public Utilities Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $88,028 0.49% $34,838 0.36% $122,867 0.44% Public Works Persons Served Multiplier Table C-1 $983,814 5.43% $389,357 4.00% $1,373,171 4.93% Total General Fund Expenditures $18,130,759 100.00% $9,724,696 100.00% $27,855,455 100.00% Additional Impacts
CSM Expenditures Case Study Table C-4 $3,131,471 - $3,974,301 - $7,105,772 - Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; EPS. [1] Includes Office of the Mayor and City Manager, and the City Council, City Attorney, and City Clerk Offices.
East of Temperance Total BuildoutSouth of Jensen
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Table C-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Fire and Police Department Expenditure Calculations (2025$) Item
Average
Annual Calls
for Service [1]
Service Call
Distribution
Net Variable
Expenditure
Distribution [2]
Cost per
Resident or
Employee
East of
Temperance
South of
Jensen
Total
Buildout
Formula a b = a / (total a) c = (total c) * b d e = c / d Residents 29,803 - 29,803
Employees 225 23,726 23,952
Fire Department
Residential 38,994 88% $69,921,866 597,783 $116.97 $3,486,004 - $3,486,004 Nonresidential 5,120 12% $9,534,800 255,032 $37.39 $8,430 $887,046 $895,476 Total 44,114 100% $79,456,666 - - $3,494,434 $887,046 $4,381,481 Police Department
Residential 251,540 72% $177,474,577 557,032 $318.61 $9,495,423 - $9,495,423 Nonresidential 98,563 28% $69,017,891 239,800 $287.81 $64,896 $6,828,756 $6,893,652 Total 350,103 100% $246,492,468 - $9,560,318 $6,828,756 $16,389,075 Source: Fresno Police Department; Fresno Fire Department; EPS. [1] Per the 2023 City of Fresno General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis prepared by EPS. This analysis assumes the average annual calls for service ratio has remained the same. [2] Totals represent existing net variable expenditures per Table C-1, with Residential and Nonresidential values derived by multiplying totals by relevant Service Call Distribution. [3] Fire Department service population consists of population and employment totals for the incorporated city and county islands. Police Department service population consists of just the incorporated city.
[4] The Fire service area population is derived by applying the historical fire-to-police service population identified in the 2023 City of Fresno General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis prepared by EPS. 2025 Service Area
Residents and
Employees [3] [4]
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Table C-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Project Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures at Buildout (2025$) Item South of Jensen
Residential Nonresidential Total Nonresidential
Assumption
Total Annual Citywide CSM Expenditures [1] $91,186,600 a .
Annual CSM Expenditures per Annual VMT on City-Maintained Streets [2] $0.02 b Annual VMT Generation
Annual VMT per Household/1,000 Nonres. Sq. Ft. [2] c 14,960 10,282 - 10,281.75 - Annual CSM Expenditure per Household/1,000 Nonres. Sq. Ft. d = b * c $322.64 $221.74 - $221.74 - Project Households/Nonres. Sq. Ft. (1,000s) [3] e 9,639 97 - 17,923 - Annual Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures f = d * e $3,109,921 $21,550 $3,131,471 $3,974,301 $7,105,772 Source: Fresno COG 2019 Base Year Traffic Model; Kittelson & Associates, Inc; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); Fresno FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; EPS. [1] See Table C-5.
[2] See assumptions and calculation on Table C-6.
[3] See Table A-1.
Estimating
Factor Formula
Total
Buildout
East of Temperance
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Table C-5
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (2025$)
FY 2025-26
Budgeted
Expenditure Item Expenditures [1]
Landscape Maintenance $23,276,200
Street Trees $4,796,900
Street Maintenance $63,113,500
Total Annual Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures $91,186,600 Source: Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); Fresno FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; EPS. [1] Obtained from Fresno City FY 2025-26 Budget and confirmed by Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW) in June 2026.
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Table C-6
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
City of Fresno Estimated Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Item Assumption Formula Residential Nonresidential
VMT Assumptions [1]
Total Daily Citywide VMT 23,167,751 a
Total Annual Citywide VMT 8,456,229,115 b = a * 365
Estimated VMT on City-Maintained Streets 4,228,114,558 c = b * 50% Total Households 568,907 d
Total Employment 253,543 e
Total Service Population 822,450 f = d + e
Total Daily Citywide VMT per Service Population 5,141 g = c / f persons/hh sq. ft./employee
Residential and Employment Density [2] h 2.91 500
per household per 1,000 sq. ft.
Total Annual VMT per Household i = g * h 14,960 -
Total Annual VMT per 1,000 Nonres. Sq. Ft. j = g / h * 1,000 - 10,282 Source: Fresno COG 2019 Base Year Traffic Model; Kittelson & Associates, Inc; EPS. [1] VMT assumptions derived from the Fresno COG 2019 Base Year Traffic Model and conversations with Kittelson & Associates, Inc. and Fresno DPW regarding reasonable assumptions for VMT on City-maintained streets. [2] Based on average residential and employment densities from the Fresno COG 2019 Base Year Traffic Model and differs from densities used to estimate SEDA residential and employee populations.
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Appendix 3-D
Supporting Tables for Revenue Estimates
Table D-1. Preliminary Property Tax Allocations: East of Temperance (2025$) .................... 3-D-1 Table D-2. Preliminary Property Tax Allocations: South of Jensen (2025$) ............................ 3-D-2 Table D-3. City–Fresno County Fire Protection District
Reimbursement Schedule (2025$ & 2029$) ................................................................... 3-D-3 Table D-4. Estimated Assessed Valuation at Buildout (2025$) ..................................................... 3-D-4 Table D-5. Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot (2025$) ............................................ 3-D-5 Table D-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations: East of Temperance (2025$) Property Tax and Estimating Factors TRA 071-046 TRA 071-048 Acres 477.94 98.00
Property Tax Allocations
Taxing Entities Subject to Tax Sharing/Detachment
City of Fresno - - - 51.0000% 22.3602% 13.6359%
Fresno County Fire (Detachment) [3] 8.1610% 8.1670% 8.1620% - 10.9894% 7.2651% Fresno County Fire Zone 10 (Detachment) [3] 12.0450% 12.0540% 12.0465% - 17.2915% 9.9635% Subtotal to City of Fresno 20.2060% 20.2210% 20.2086% - 50.6411% 30.8645% Fresno County 34.4330% 34.4590% 34.4374% 49.0000% 52.4384% 8.0257% Other Taxing Entities
Fresno Co Library 1.8090% 1.8110% 1.8093% - 12.8958% 1.5760% Sanger-Del Rey CM 1.0200% 1.6640% 1.1296% - 30.5927% 0.7840% Kings River Conser. 0.4620% 0.4630% 0.4622% - - 0.4622% Consolidated Mosq. 0.8460% 0.8450% 0.8458% - - 0.8458%
Sanger Unified 32.6410% 32.0970% 32.5484% - - 32.5484%
State Center Community College District 5.4410% 5.3500% 5.4255% - - 5.4255% School Equalization/CO School Service 3.1420% 3.0900% 3.1332% - - 3.1332% Subtotal 45.3610% 45.3200% 45.3540% - - 44.7751%
Total 100.0000% 100.0000% 100.0000% - - 83.6653%
Educational Revenue Relief Fund (ERAF) - - - - - 16.3347% Total Gross Property Tax 100.0000% 100.0000% 100.0000% - - 100.0000% Source: Fresno County; EPS.
[1] Represents the weighted average percentage allocation of the 1% ad valorem property tax across parcels in the East of Temperance subarea of South SEDA. [2] Property tax allocations for the City and County are based on the December 2024 Fresno-County Tax Sharing-Agreement Memorandum of Understanding assuming annexation of SEDA to the City of Fresno.
[3] Upon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services from the City's Fire Department.
Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property tax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the District and service zone tax rates. See Table D-3 for the property tax revenue reimbursement schedule.
Post-ERAF
Distribution
East of Temperance
Pre-ERAF Distribution TRA Weighted
Average [1]
Pre-ERAF Tax
Sharing [2]
% Shift
to ERAF
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Table D-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Preliminary Property Tax Allocations: South of Jensen (2025$) Property Tax and Estimating Factors TRA 071-011 TRA 071-054 TRA 071-057 Acres 1,229.16 275.81 41.72
Property Tax Allocations
Taxing Entities Subject to Tax Sharing/Detachment
City of Fresno - - - - 51.0000% 22.3602% 15.2983%
Fresno County Fire (Detachment) [3] 9.3010% 8.7330% 7.7200% 9.1571% - 10.9894% 8.1508% Fresno County Fire Zone 10 (Detachment) [3] - - 11.3960% 0.3074% - 17.2915% 0.2542% Subtotal to City of Fresno 9.3010% 8.7330% 19.1160% 9.4645% - 50.6411% 23.7033% Fresno County 39.2430% 36.8460% 32.5730% 38.6356% 49.0000% 52.4384% 9.0041% Other Taxing Entities
Fresno Co Library 2.0620% 1.9360% 1.7110% 2.0301% - 12.8958% 1.7683% Sanger-Del Rey CM 0.9210% 0.8640% 0.9640% 0.9120% - 30.5927% 0.6330% Fresno Metropolitan Flood Control District - 4.4600% 3.9430% 0.9017% - 41.5257% 0.5272% Kings River Conser. 0.5270% 0.4950% 0.4380% 0.5189% - - 0.5189% Consolidated Mosq. 0.9640% 0.9060% 0.8010% 0.9493% - - 0.9493% Sanger Unified 37.2000% 36.2330% 32.0320% 36.8882% - - 36.8882% State Center Community College District 6.2010% 6.0390% 5.3390% 6.1489% - - 6.1489% School Equalization/CO School Service 3.5810% 3.4880% 3.0830% 3.5510% - - 3.5510% Subtotal 51.4560% 54.4210% 48.3110% 51.8999% - - 50.9847% Total 100.0000% 100.0000% 100.0000% 100.0000% - - 83.6921% Educational Revenue Relief Fund (ERAF) - - - - - - 16.3079% Total Gross Property Tax 100.0000% 100.0000% 100.0000% 100.0000% - - 100.0000% Source: Fresno County; EPS.
[1] Represents the weighted average percentage allocation of the 1% ad valorem property tax across parcels in the South of Jensen subarea of South SEDA. [2] Property tax allocations for the City and County are based on the December 2024 Fresno-County Tax Sharing-Agreement Memorandum of Understanding assuming annexation of SEDA to the City of Fresno.
[3] Upon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services from the City's Fire Department.
Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property tax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the District and service zone tax rates. See Table D-3 for the property tax revenue reimbursement schedule.
Post-ERAF
Distribution
South of Jensen
Pre-ERAF Distribution
% Shift
to ERAF
Pre-ERAF Tax
Sharing [2]
TRA Weighted
Average [1]
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Table D-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
City–Fresno County Fire Protection District Reimbursement Schedule (2025$ & 2029$) Year
Calendar
Year
Fiscal
Year
East of
Temperance [1]
South of
Jensen [1] Total
Current Total Assessment: FY 2024-25 (2025$) [2] $19,661,550 $34,261,499 Assumed Annexation and Base Year: FY 2029-30 (2029$) [2] $21,282,000 $37,086,000 Fresno County Fire District Allocation [3] 17.23% 8.41% Year 1 [4] 2030 FY 2030-31 $36,666 $31,171 $67,837
Year 2 2031 FY 2031-32 $37,399 $31,794 $69,193
Year 3 2032 FY 2032-33 $38,147 $32,430 $70,577
Year 4 2033 FY 2033-34 $38,910 $33,079 $71,989
Year 5 2034 FY 2034-35 $39,688 $33,740 $73,429
Year 6 2035 FY 2035-36 $40,482 $34,415 $74,897
Year 7 2036 FY 2036-37 $41,292 $35,103 $76,395
Year 8 2037 FY 2037-38 $42,118 $35,805 $77,923
Year 9 2038 FY 2038-39 $42,960 $36,522 $79,481
Year 10 2039 FY 2039-40 $43,819 $37,252 $81,071
Cumulative Reimbursement to Fresno County Fire District $401,481 $341,312 $742,792 Source: Fresno County; EPS.
[1] Upon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services from the City's Fire Department. Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property tax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the District and service zone tax rates.
[2] This analysis assumes annexation of the South SEDA to the City of Fresno would occur in 2029. Base year assessed valuation is based on the 2025 Fresno County assessment roll and is escalated annually by 2% through the assumed annexation year to estimate the assessed valuation subject to the City-Fresno County Fire Protection District property tax sharing agreement. [3] Includes allocation to the Fresno County Fire District parent zone and service zone 10. See Table D-1 and Table D-2. [4] Year 1 reimbursement is calculated by applying the applicable Fire Tax Share percentage to the 1% property tax revenues generated from the escalated 2029 assessed valuation assumptions for each subarea. From Year 2 to Year 10, the Fire Protection property tax revenue is assumed to increase annually by 2% over the analysis period.
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Table D-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Estimated Assessed Valuation at Buildout (2025$)
Item
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft.
Assessed Value
(Rounded) [3]
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft.
Assessed Value
(Rounded) [3]
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft.
Assessed Value
(Rounded) [3]
Residential Per Unit
Single Family
Neighborhood Residential $525,000 8,140 - $4,273,500,000 - - - 8,140 - $4,273,500,000 Multifamily
Community Town Center [2] $335,000 300 - $100,500,000 - - - 300 - $100,500,000 Mixed Residential $335,000 605 - $202,675,000 - - - 605 - $202,675,000 Neighborhood Town Center [2] $335,000 1,025 - $343,375,000 - - - 1,025 - $343,375,000 Subtotal Multifamily 1,930 - $646,550,000 - - - 1,930 - $646,550,000 Total Residential Assessed Value (Rounded) 10,070 - $4,920,050,000 - - - 10,070 - $4,920,050,000 Nonresidential per Bldg Sq. ft.
Office
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) $175 - 6,800 $1,190,000 - - - - 6,800 $1,190,000 Office $175 - - - - 866,250 $151,594,000 - 866,250 $151,594,000 Subtotal Office 6,800 $1,190,000 866,250 $151,594,000 873,050 $152,784,000 Retail
Retail (Neighborhood Town Center) $300 - 20,500 $6,150,000 - - - - 20,500 $6,150,000 Retail (Community Town Center) $300 - 75,000 $22,500,000 - - - - 75,000 $22,500,000 Subtotal Retail 95,500 $28,650,000 - - 95,500 $28,650,000 Industrial (Flex R&D)
Industrial (Flex R&D) $190 - - - - 18,000,000 $3,420,000,000 - 18,000,000 $3,420,000,000 Total Nonresidential - 102,300 $29,840,000 - - $3,571,594,000 - - $3,601,434,000 Total Assessed Value 10,070 102,300 $4,949,890,000 - 18,866,250 $3,571,594,000 10,070 18,968,550 $8,521,484,000 Source: Fresno City, CoStar data retrieved May 2026, Lee & Associates Q1 2026 Market Overview; EPS. [1] See Table E-2 and Table E-3 for residential estimated assessed value assumptions. [2] See Table E-4 for nonresidential estimated assessed value assumptions. [3] Note that assessed values (AV)s are expressed in 2025$ and include no real AV growth.
East of Temperance South of Jensen Total Buildout
Assessed
(Rounded) [1] [2]
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Table D-5
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Total and Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot (2025$)
% [2]
Sales
Value % [2]
Sales
Value % [2]
Sales
Value % [2]
Sales
Value
Total Retail Sales per Square Foot
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers [3] $250 $342 3% $10 2% $7 5% $17 1% $3 Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $525 $718 0% $0 7% $50 0% $0 10% $72 Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $356 $487 0% $0 15% $73 0% $0 1% $5 Food and Beverage Stores [4] $598 $769 55% $423 24% $185 5% $38 3% $23 Gasoline Stations [5] $1,321 $2,037 1% $20 2% $41 10% $204 1% $20 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $370 $506 2% $10 5% $25 0% $0 20% $101 General Merchandise Stores $360 $493 5% $25 24% $118 0% $0 20% $99 Food Services and Drinking Places $492 $673 8% $54 10% $67 60% $404 20% $135 Other Retail $209 $286 12% $34 6% $17 20% $57 18% $51
Nonretail [6] NA NA 14% NA 5% NA 0% NA 6% NA
Total Retail Sales Per Square Foot 100% $580 100% $580 100% $720 100% $510 Taxable Retail Sales per Square Foot by Retail Center Type Percent Taxable by Shopping Center Type [7] 44% 54% 60% 98% Taxable Sales per Square Foot (Rounded) $260 $310 $430 $500 Source: BizMiner 2016; ULI Dollars & Cents 2008; State of California Board of Equalization (BOE) Publication 61; Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series) - West Urban"; RetailSails http://retailsails.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/rs_spsf.pdf; eMarketer pulled February 2019; respective annual 10-K reports; EPS. [1] Sales per square foot are estimated based on data from BizMiner, RetailSails, eMarketer, and annual SEC 10-K reports. Some reported figures are from previous calendar or fiscal years and have been escalated to 2025$, except when noted otherwise.
Year CPI Adjustment to 2025$
2008 219.65 54.2%
2016 247.71 36.7%
2018 263.26 28.6%
2023 323.83 4.6%
2025 338.66 0.0%
[2] Reflects percentage of total square footage by retail category by retail center type, estimated based on ULI's Dollars & Cents 2008. [3] Reflects motor vehicle parts only; excludes total retail sales per square foot for dealerships. [4]
[5] Estimated using ULI's Dollars & Cents, 2008 (2008$), escalated to 2025$. [6] Included to account for non-taxable retail space occupants, such as services. [7] Based on BOE Publication 61, March 2018.
Sales per square foot for Food and Beverage stores estimated based on the averages from BizMiner, RetailSails, eMarketer, and annual 10-K reports from 2018 (2018$),
Item
Retail Sales by Shopping Center Type
Original
Data
[see Note]
Escalated
Data
(2025$) [1]
Neighborhood Community Highway Commercial Regional
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Appendix 3-E
Supporting Tables for Assessed Value
Table E-1. Residential Development Assessed Value Assumptions ............................................. 3-E-1 Table E-2. Single-Family Residential Comparable Projects ............................................................. 3-E-2 Table E-3. Multifamily Residential Comparisons ................................................................................ 3-E-3 Table E-4. Nonresidential Development Assessed Value Assumptions ..................................... 3-E-4 Table E-5. Retail Comparable Projects .................................................................................................... 3-E-5 Table E-6. Office Comparable Projects ................................................................................................... 3-E-6 Table E-7. Industrial Comparisons ........................................................................................................... 3-E-7 Table E-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Residential Development Assessed Value Assumptions
Assumption Single Family Multifamily Source
Average Square Feet per Unit 2,240 1,030 Gregory Group and CoStar Market Value for New Development $525,000 $335,000 Gregory Group and CoStar Monthly Rent per Unit - $2,200
Source: Fresno 2023 General Fund Fiscal Impact Analysis, Redfin, Zillow Mean Sale Price, CoStar data retrieved May 2026, and Gregory Group 2025 Q1 - 2026 Q1; EPS.
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Table E-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Single-Family Residential Comparable Projects
Item [1] Lot Size
Average
Home Size
Units
Planned Units Sold
Average
Base Price
Average Price
per Sq. Ft.
Fresno
Ariette at Copper River 4,500 1,823 136 87 $498,115 $273 Centrella Villas 2,400 1,870 146 142 $432,323 $231
DeYoung at the Landing 6,600 2,244 65 16 $563,303 $251
Edgewood at Peach Avenue 5,500 2,239 73 63 $472,990 $211 Edgewood at Peach Street 6,000 2,239 94 37 $467,990 $209 Fanucchi -- Calligraphy 5,500 1,926 26 26 $453,000 $235 Fanucchi -- Celestial 4,000 1,954 52 52 $435,833 $223
Fanucchi -- Valencia 4,500 2,316 43 43 $467,833 $202
Granville at Millerton 8,050 2,653 133 45 $647,333 $244 Juniper Hills -- Orchard 4,500 2,286 124 124 $493,000 $216 Kintsu Square -- Celestial 2,800 1,954 20 19 $450,833 $231 Kintsu Square -- Choral 4,000 2,774 84 84 $532,900 $192 Kintsu Square -- Orchard 5,000 2,286 83 83 $477,300 $209 Kintsu Square -- Valencia 3,150 2,316 71 39 $470,667 $203 Madison at Copper River 5,500 2,379 135 52 $637,133 $268 Parc West 7,150 2,397 85 78 $650,467 $271
Parkside at Peach Street 5,000 1,883 107 66 $498,790 $265 Portofino 5,500 2,248 27 26 $633,000 $282
Sterling Acres - Coronet and Choral 4,725 2,073 162 162 $511,823 $247 Terra Toscana 3,600 2,144 105 46 $485,657 $227
The Landing 5,000 2,571 86 58 $672,998 $262
Trellises 5,500 1,987 149 121 $459,561 $231
Woodlands at Brooklyn Trail - 2,848 98 98 $588,490 $207 Subtotal/Weighted Average 4,468 2,224 2,104 1,567 $515,500 $233 Clovis
Cielo Ranch 5000s 5,000 1,808 92 92 $445,790 $247
Cielo Ranch 6000s 3,250 1,697 44 44 $534,990 $315
Citrea 2,800 1,831 65 47 $452,000 $247
Corinthalyn -- Alfa 5,000 2,286 88 88 $469,500 $205
Corinthalyn -- Orchard 3,600 2,316 74 74 $465,167 $201
Corinthalyn -- Valencia 4,500 2,316 68 7 $464,667 $201
Ellingworth - Choral 6,000 2,590 86 86 $538,090 $208
Heritage Grove -- Celestial 2,450 1,954 52 39 $517,000 $265 Heritage Grove -- Choral 3,500 2,590 87 87 $605,290 $234 Heritage Grove -- Orchard 6,000 2,286 78 78 $553,457 $242 Heritage Grove -- Skye 6,600 2,454 54 54 $653,040 $266
Heritage Grove -- The Grand 6,500 2,940 74 59 $842,123 $286 Subtotal/Weighted Average 4,764 2,284 862 755 $545,702 $240 Total/Weighted Average (Rounded) 4,600 2,240 2,970 2,320 $525,000 $240 Source: Gregory Group 2025 Q1 - 2026 Q1; EPS.
[1] Comparable projects are based on Gregory Group market data for the period from Q1 2025 through Q1 2026.
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Table E-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Multifamily Residential Comparisons
Item [1] Property Name Property Style Year Built
Number
of Units
Vacancy
Percentage
Average Unit
Size (Sq. Ft.)
Average
Monthly Rent
City of Fresno
11233 N Alicante Dr The Lark at Copper River Garden 2022 492 11.99% 992 $2,410 2350 E Alluvial Ave The Residences at Rock Ranch Garden 2021 176 3.41% 1,064 $2,320 2594 N Armstrong Ave Broadstone Place Garden 2025 64 1.56% 929 $2,072 1540 B St B Street Apartments Garden 2022 15 6.67% 1,000 $1,882 8104 N Bond St Coronado Apartments Garden 2023 164 12.80% 1,073 $2,229 4259 W Bullard Ave Avalon Apartments Garden 2022 192 0.00% 995 $1,937 5034 W Bullard Ave The Orchards Apartments II Garden 2022 64 0.00% 862 $1,775 6338 N Cecelia Ave Madelyn Court Low-Rise 2024 48 0.00% 1,166 $2,088 5555 N Dante Ave Dante Apartments Garden 2022 80 5.00% 1,027 $2,103 9111 N Maple Ave The Rousseau Garden 2022 84 2.38% 1,157 $2,212 6050 E Princeton Ave Sofia Low-Rise 2024 90 4.44% 1,022 $2,139 5490 N Salinas Ave The Californian Garden 2021 120 1.67% 925 $1,844 525 W San Jose Ave 525 San Jose Garden 2022 42 0.00% 1,062 $2,094 5925 E Tulare St The Villas at Fancher Creek 2023 39 5.13% 933 $2,076 7355 N Willow Ave The Villas at Ellis Manor Garden 2025 177 25.99% 1,116 $2,369 Subtotal/Weighted Average 1,847 8.01% 1,023 $2,199
City of Clovis
3798 Ashlan Ave Creekside Village Garden 2024 216 2.31% 1,007 2,062 3700 Loma Vista Pky Portola Plaza Garden 2023 129 2.31% 1,131 2,241 382 N McKelvy Ave Dolce Vita Luxury Apartments Garden 2021 158 2.31% 1,125 2,091 Subtotal/Weighted Average 503 2.31% 1,076 $2,117
Total/Weighted Average (Rounded) - 2,350 6.79% 1,030 $2,200 Source: CoStar data retrieved May 2026; EPS.
[1] Comparable multifamily projects include existing developments built since 2021, based on CoStar data available as of May 2026.
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Table E-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Nonresidential Development Assessed Value Assumptions
Item Retail Office Source for 2026
Annual Rent per Net Sq. Ft. $24 $25 $8 Costar
Efficiency Ratio (Net to Gross Sq. Ft.) 95.0% 90.0% 90.0% EPS Assumption Vacancy Rate 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% EPS Assumption
OPEX as % of Revenue 5.0% 25.0% 5.0% EPS Assumption
Cap Rate 7.0% 10.0% 4.0% Lee & Associates; EPS Assumption Assessed Value per Gross Sq. Ft. [1] $300 $175 $152
Source: CoStar data retrieved May 2026, Lee & Associates Q1 2026 Market Overview; EPS. [1] Nonresidential assessed value assumptions are estimated using an income capitalization approach based on market rent assumptions, vacancy rates, operating expense ratios, and capitalization rates.
Industrial
(Flex R&D)
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Table E-5
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Retail Comparable Projects
Item Property Type Year Built [1] Building Status
Annual Rent
per Sq. Ft. [2]
Fresno
3141-3173 E Campus Pointe Dr Community Center 2026 Under Construction 25,000 $18.00 7095 N Marks Ave Community Center 2027 Proposed 6,000 $30.00 3046-3082 E Campus Pointe Dr Community Center 2022 Existing 13,000 $31.48 3048 S Campus Pointe Dr Community Center 2026 Under Construction 20,000 $17.87 4981 E Kings Canyon Rd Community Center 2024 Existing 6,254 $19.30 1937 W Clinton Ave Neighborhood Center 2021 Existing 9,164 $19.38 1943 W Clinton Ave Neighborhood Center 2021 Existing 5,471 $31.60 2020 W Shaw Ave Neighborhood Center 2023 Existing 3,011 $23.47 E Jensen and S Maple Ave Neighborhood Center 2026 Under Construction 45,903 $20.18 Subtotal/Average 14,867 $23.33
Clovis
257 W Shaw Ave Community Center 2026 Under Construction 6,000 $21.83 1660 Herndon Ave Neighborhood Center 2020 Existing 14,745 $30.70 205 W Shaw Ave Community Center 2026 Under Construction 3,600 $21.81 Subtotal/Average 8,115 $24.78
Subtotal/Average 13,179 $23.76
Source: CoStar data retrieved May 2026; EPS.
[1] Comparable retail projects include existing, proposed, and under-construction developments built since 2024 or anticipated to be developed later, based on CoStar data available as of May 2026.
[2] Where CoStar provides an estimated rent range, the annual rent per square foot reflects the high-end of the range rather than the average.
Rentable Building
Area Sq. Ft.
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Table E-6
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Office Comparable Projects
Item Year Built [1] Building Status
Rentable Building
Area Sq. Ft.
Annual Rent
per Sq. Ft. [2]
Fresno
6750 N Fresno St 2026 Under Construction 50,000 $31.80
7795 N Palm Ave 2026 Under Construction 10,565 $30.00
7039 Blythe Ave 2025 Existing 9,000 $26.53
7517 Colonial Ave 2026 Existing 28,000 $16.51
7544 Colonial Avenue 2026 Existing 28,000 $16.51
269 East Nees Avenue 2025 Existing 7,598 $31.43
0 W Herndon Ave 2025 Existing 9,500 $19.77
5434 E Lamona Ave 2024 Existing 17,429 $22.85
2884 E Shepherd Ave 2024 Existing 3,721 $27.53
Subtotal/Average 18,201 $23.02
Clovis
372 Spruce Ave 2026 Under Construction 23,552 $21.00
930 N Temperance Ave 2024 Existing 7,350 $30.00
948 N Temperance Ave 2027 Proposed 20,000 $25.20
968 N Temperance Ave 2027 Proposed 40,000 $25.20
606 Halifax 2026 Under Construction 20,832 $31.18
700 W Herndon Ave 2026 Under Construction 45,000 $31.46 2356 Leonard 2026 Proposed 43,000 $21.00
2036 Shaw Ave 2025 Existing 9,241 $29.05
2176 Shaw Ave 2025 Existing 9,241 $26.50
2196 Shaw Ave 2025 Existing 6,161 $26.71
918 N Temperance Ave 2024 Existing 7,200 $27.46
924 N Temperance Ave 2024 Existing 7,200 $27.46
938 N Temperance Ave 2024 Existing 7,200 $27.46
510 Bush Ave 2026 Under Construction 7,523 $14.58
Subtotal/Average 18,107 $26.87
Total/Average 18,144 $25.19
Source: CoStar data retrieved May 2026; EPS.
[1] Comparable office projects include existing, proposed, and under-construction developments built since 2024 or anticipated to be developed later, based on CoStar data available as of May 2026. [2] Where CoStar provides an estimated rent range, the annual rent per square foot reflects the high-end of the range rather than the average.
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Table E-7
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Industrial Comparisons
Item Year Built [1] Secondary Type Building Status
Rentable Building
Area Sq. Ft.
Annual Rent
per Sq. Ft. [2]
Fresno
5255-5311 E Home Ave 2027 Warehouse Under Construction 163,000 $11.40 2754 Business Park Ave 2025 Warehouse Existing 25,000 $9.89 5660 E Clinton Ave 2024 Warehouse Existing 5,625 $10.12 3688 S East Ave 2024 Warehouse Existing 88,055 $9.70
4162 N Knoll Ave 2024 Warehouse Existing 9,143 $9.85
2587 N Sunnyside Ave 2025 Warehouse Existing 13,945 $10.27 3711 W Swift Ave 2024 Warehouse Existing 4,731 $10.06
3759 W Swift Ave 2024 Warehouse Existing 5,000 $10.06
3807 W Swift Ave 2024 Warehouse Existing 8,965 $9.85
971 E North Ave 2025 Distribution Existing 205,000 $5.17 Subtotal/Average 52,846 $9.44
Clovis
12 W Palo Alto Ave 2024 Warehouse Existing 5,867 $11.40 2864 Phillip Ave 2026 Warehouse Under Construction 7,792 $9.78 Subtotal/Average 6,830 $10.59
Total/Average 45,177 $9.65
Source: CoStar data retrieved May 2026; EPS.
[1] Comparable industrial projects include existing, proposed, and under-construction developments built since 2024 or anticipated to be developed later, based on CoStar data available as of May 2026. [2] Where CoStar provides an estimated rent range, the annual rent per square foot reflects the high-end of the range rather than the average.
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Appendix 3-F
Supporting Tables for General Fund Impacts During Years of Subsidy Table F-1. Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy:
East of Temperance (2025$) .................................................................................................. 3-F-1 Table F-2. Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy:
South of Jensen, Low Absorption (2025$) ........................................................................ 3-F-2 Table F-3. Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy:
South of Jensen, High Absorption (2025$) ...................................................................... 3-F-3 Table F-4. Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy:
Combined Areas, Low Absorption (2025$) ...................................................................... 3-F-4 Table F-5. Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy:
Combined Areas, High Absorption (2025$) ..................................................................... 3-F-5
Table F-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis by Phase
Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy: East of Temperance (2025$) Item 2030 2032
Annual Fiscal Impacts
Annual General Fund Revenues [1]
Property Tax $162,039 $1,075,628
VLF Swap $75,954 $504,191
Sales Tax $22,953 $153,402
Prop. 172 Sales Tax $574 $3,835
Business License $0 $0
Franchise Fees $9,203 $62,049
Other Taxes and Fees $3,403 $22,943
Cannabis $1,504 $10,139
Annual General Fund Revenues $275,629 $1,832,187
Annual General Fund Expenditures [2]
General Government $13,350 $90,009
Economic Development $980 $6,608
Finance $3,012 $20,306
Fire $36,415 $245,527
Animal Center $2,857 $19,261
Capital Projects $1,987 $13,396
General Services $819 $5,519
Information Services $111 $752
PARCS $8,205 $55,321
Personnel $3,138 $21,157
Planning & Development $7,213 $48,633
Police $99,191 $668,784
Public Utilities $916 $6,177
Public Works $10,238 $69,032
Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $188,432 $1,270,481 Annual General Fund Surplus/Deficit (Rounded) $87,000 $562,000 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts
(plus) Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [3] $8,607 $57,526
(minus) Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (CSM) [4] $30,883 $216,180 (minus) Reimbursement to Fresno County Fire District [5] $36,666 $38,147 Total Annual Net General Fund and Additional Impacts Surplus/(Deficit) (Rounded) $28,000 $365,000 Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); EPS. [1] See Section 3 Appendix B for more details regarding revenue estimates. [2] See Section 3 Appendix C for more details regarding expenditure estimates. [3] This analysis includes estimates of Measure P sales tax revenue, a voter-approved 0.375% sales tax passed in 2018. This revenue source is a special tax and does not flow to the City's General Fund but is used to fund Fresno's parks. [4] Comprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures represent the existing cost of providing Landscape, Street Trees, and Street Maintenance.
These costs fall outside the General Fund and are estimated using a VMT metric by land use category. See Section 3 Table C-4. [5] Upon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services from the City's Fire Department. Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property tax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the District and service zone tax rates. Actual reimbursement amount and timing may vary.
Annual Fiscal Impacts by Year
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Table F-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis by Phase
Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy: South of Jensen, Low Absorption (2025$) Item 2030 2038
Annual Fiscal Impacts
Annual General Fund Revenues [1]
Property Tax $234,516 $2,045,298
VLF Swap $143,138 $1,248,362
Sales Tax $70,416 $580,145
Prop. 172 Sales Tax $1,760 $14,504
Business License $31,872 $266,038
Franchise Fees $9,659 $80,624
Other Taxes and Fees $3,571 $29,811
Cannabis $1,578 $13,174
Annual General Fund Revenues $496,511 $4,277,956
Annual General Fund Expenditures [2]
General Government $14,011 $116,955
Economic Development $1,029 $8,587
Finance $3,161 $26,385
Fire $24,482 $204,352
Animal Center $2,998 $25,027
Capital Projects $2,085 $17,407
General Services $859 $7,171
Information Services $117 $977
PARCS $8,612 $71,882
Personnel $3,293 $27,490
Planning & Development $7,570 $63,192
Police $188,467 $1,573,163
Public Utilities $962 $8,026
Public Works $10,746 $89,697
Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $268,392 $2,240,310 Annual General Fund Surplus/Deficit (Rounded) $228,000 $2,038,000 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts
(plus) Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [3] $26,406 $217,554 (minus) Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (CSM) [4] $110,068 $957,434 (minus) Reimbursement to Fresno County Fire District [5] $31,171 $37,252 Total Annual Net General Fund and Additional Impacts Surplus/(Deficit) (Rounded) $113,000 $1,261,000 Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); EPS. [1] S
ee Section 3 Appendix B for more details regarding revenue estimates. [2] S
ee Section 3 Appendix C for more details regarding expenditure estimates. [3] T
his analysis includes estimates of Measure P sales tax revenue, a voter-approved 0.375% sales tax passed in 2018. This revenue source is a special tax and does n
ot flow to the City's General Fund but is used to fund Fresno's parks. [4] C
omprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures represent the existing cost of providing Landscape, Street Trees, and Street Maintenance.
T
hese costs fall outside the General Fund and are estimated using a VMT metric by land use category. See Section 3 Table C-4. [5] U
pon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services f
rom the City's Fire Department. Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property t
ax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the D
istrict and service zone tax rates. Actual reimbursement amount and timing may vary.
Annual Fiscal Impacts by Year
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Table F-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis by Phase
Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy: South of Jensen, High Absorption (2025$) Item 2030 2031
Annual Fiscal Impacts
Annual General Fund Revenues [1]
Property Tax $910,059 $1,810,785
VLF Swap $555,461 $1,105,225
Sales Tax $255,869 $506,904
Prop. 172 Sales Tax $6,397 $12,673
Business License $118,570 $234,167
Franchise Fees $35,933 $70,965
Other Taxes and Fees $13,287 $26,240
Cannabis $5,871 $11,596
Annual General Fund Revenues $1,901,446 $3,778,554
Annual General Fund Expenditures [2]
General Government $52,125 $102,943
Economic Development $3,827 $7,558
Finance $11,759 $23,224
Fire $91,077 $179,870
Animal Center $11,154 $22,029
Capital Projects $7,758 $15,322
General Services $3,196 $6,312
Information Services $435 $860
PARCS $32,037 $63,270
Personnel $12,252 $24,197
Planning & Development $28,164 $55,622
Police $701,136 $1,384,696
Public Utilities $3,577 $7,064
Public Works $39,977 $78,952
Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $998,474 $1,971,918 Annual General Fund Surplus/Deficit (Rounded) $903,000 $1,807,000 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts
(plus) Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [3] $95,951 $190,089 (minus) Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (CSM) [4] $426,053 $847,366 (minus) Reimbursement to Fresno County Fire District [5] $31,171 $31,794 Total Annual Net General Fund and Additional Impacts Surplus/(Deficit) (Rounded) $542,000 $1,118,000 Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); EPS. [1] S
ee Section 3 Appendix B for more details regarding revenue estimates. [2] S
ee Section 3 Appendix C for more details regarding expenditure estimates. [3] T
his analysis includes estimates of Measure P sales tax revenue, a voter-approved 0.375% sales tax passed in 2018. This revenue source is a special tax a
nd does not flow to the City's General Fund but is used to fund Fresno's parks. [4] C
omprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures represent the existing cost of providing Landscape, Street Trees, and Street Maintenance.
T
hese costs fall outside the General Fund and are estimated using a VMT metric by land use category. See Section 3 Table C-4. [5] U
pon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services f
rom the City's Fire Department. Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property t
ax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the D
istrict and service zone tax rates. Actual reimbursement amount and timing may vary.
Annual Fiscal Impacts by Year
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Table F-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis by Phase
Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy: Combined Areas, Low Absorption (2025$) Item 2030 2035
Annual Fiscal Impacts
Annual General Fund Revenues [1]
Property Tax $396,554 $4,783,416
VLF Swap $219,092 $2,436,163
Sales Tax $90,545 $875,571
Prop. 172 Sales Tax $2,264 $875,571
Business License $31,872 $179,341
Franchise Fees $18,862 $54,350
Other Taxes and Fees $6,974 $20,096
Cannabis $3,082 $8,881
Annual General Fund Revenues $769,245 $9,233,388
Annual General Fund Expenditures [2]
General Government $27,361 $78,841
Economic Development $2,009 $5,788
Finance $6,173 $17,787
Fire $60,897 $926,150
Animal Center $5,855 $16,871
Capital Projects $4,072 $11,734
General Services $1,678 $4,834
Information Services $228 $658
PARCS $16,816 $48,457
Personnel $6,431 $18,532
Planning & Development $14,784 $42,599
Police $287,658 $3,207,974
Public Utilities $1,878 $5,410
Public Works $20,984 $60,466
Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $456,824 $4,446,101 Annual General Fund Surplus/Deficit (Rounded) $312,000 $4,787,000 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts
(plus) Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [3] $33,954 $875,571 (minus) Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (CSM) [4] $140,951 $1,354,534 (minus) Reimbursement to Fresno County Fire District [5] $67,837 $74,897 Total Annual Net General Fund and Additional Impacts Surplus/(Deficit) (Rounded) $137,000 $4,233,000 Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); EPS. [1] S
ee Section 3 Appendix B for more details regarding revenue estimates. [2] S
ee Section 3 Appendix C for more details regarding expenditure estimates. [3] T
his analysis includes estimates of Measure P sales tax revenue, a voter-approved 0.375% sales tax passed in 2018. This revenue source is a special tax a
nd does not flow to the City's General Fund but is used to fund Fresno's parks. [4] C
omprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures represent the existing cost of providing Landscape, Street Trees, and Street Maintenance.
T
hese costs fall outside the General Fund and are estimated using a VMT metric by land use category. See Section 3 Table C-4. [5] U
pon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services f
rom the City's Fire Department. Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property t
ax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the D
istrict and service zone tax rates. Actual reimbursement amount and timing may vary.
Annual Fiscal Impacts by Year
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Table F-5
City of Fresno South SEDA
Fiscal Impact Analysis by Phase
Annual General Fund Fiscal Impacts During Years of Subsidy: Combined Areas, High Absorption (2025$) Item 2030 2032
Annual Fiscal Impacts
Annual General Fund Revenues [1]
Property Tax $1,072,098 $3,787,138
VLF Swap $631,415 $2,159,180
Sales Tax $278,822 $911,342
Prop. 172 Sales Tax $6,971 $22,784
Business License $118,570 $349,920
Franchise Fees $45,136 $168,094
Other Taxes and Fees $16,689 $62,154
Cannabis $7,375 $27,466
Annual General Fund Revenues $2,177,075 $7,488,077
Annual General Fund Expenditures [2]
General Government $65,475 $243,839
Economic Development $4,807 $17,902
Finance $14,771 $55,010
Fire $127,492 $514,191
Animal Center $14,011 $52,179
Capital Projects $9,745 $36,292
General Services $4,014 $14,950
Information Services $547 $2,036
PARCS $40,242 $149,867
Personnel $15,390 $57,315
Planning & Development $35,377 $131,750
Police $800,327 $2,737,039
Public Utilities $4,493 $16,733
Public Works $50,215 $187,011
Subtotal Annual General Fund Expenditures $1,186,906 $4,216,114 Annual General Fund Surplus/Deficit (Rounded) $990,000 $3,272,000 Additional Annual City Fiscal Impacts
(plus) Measure P Sales Tax Revenue [3] $104,558 $341,753 (minus) Comprehensive Street Maintenance Expenditures (CSM) [4] $456,936 $1,484,859 (minus) Reimbursement to Fresno County Fire District [5] $67,837 $70,577 Total Annual Net General Fund and Additional Impacts Surplus/(Deficit) (Rounded) $570,000 $2,058,000 Source: City of Fresno FY 2023-24, FY 2024-25, and FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget; Fresno Department of Public Works (DPW); EPS. [1] See Section 3 Appendix B for more details regarding revenue estimates. [2] See Section 3 Appendix C for more details regarding expenditure estimates. [3] This analysis includes estimates of Measure P sales tax revenue, a voter-approved 0.375% sales tax passed in 2018. This revenue source is a special tax and does not flow to the City's General Fund but is used to fund Fresno's parks. [4] Comprehensive Street Maintenance (CSM) expenditures represent the existing cost of providing Landscape, Street Trees, and Street Maintenance. These costs fall outside the General Fund and are estimated using a VMT metric by land use category. [5] Upon annexation into the City of Fresno, the project area would detach from the Fresno County Fire Protection District and receive fire protection services from the City's Fire Department. Per the August 19, 2025 Property Tax Allocation Agreement, the City will reimburse the District 100% of the property tax revenues it would have otherwise collected (the Base Year Allocation) for up to 10 years, with annual increases capped at 2%, applicable to both the District and service zone tax rates. Actual reimbursement amount and timing may vary.
Annual Fiscal Impacts by Year
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Section 4
Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District (EIFD) Funding Analysis Section 4-A
Development and Assessed Value Summary Tables
Section 4-B
East of Temperance Tax Increment Revenue Supporting Tables Section 4-C
South of Jensen Tax Increment Revenue Supporting Tables Appendix 4-A
Development and Assessed Value Summary Tables
Table A-1. South SEDA Proposed Land Uses at Buildout ................................................................ 4-A-1 Table A-2. New Development Absorption Timeline .......................................................................... 4-A-2 Table A-3. New Development Assessed Value Absorption Timeline .......................................... 4-A-3 Table A-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
South SEDA Proposed Land Uses at Buildout
Description Acres
Density/
FAR
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft. Acres
Density/
FAR
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft. Acres
Density/
FAR
Dwelling
Units
Bldg.
Sq. Ft.
Residential
Single Family
Neighborhood Residential - - - - - - - - - - - -
Multifamily
Neighborhood Town Center 41.00 25.0 1,025 - - - - - 41.00 25.0 1,025 - Community Town Center 56.06 34.4 1,930 - - - - - 56.06 34.4 1,930 - Mixed-Use Residential - - - - - - - - - - - -
Subtotal Multifamily 463.06 21.7 10,070 - - - - - 463.06 21.7 10,070 - Total Residential - - - - - - - - - - - - Nonresidential
Office
Office (Neighborhood Town Center) - - - - 63.00 0.32 - 866,250 63.00 0.32 - 866,250 Office 0.62 - - 6,800 63.00 - - 866,250 63.62 - - 873,050 Subtotal Office - - - - - - - - - - - - Retail
Community Town Center 3.44 0.50 - 75,000 - - - - 3.44 0.50 - 75,000 Neighborhood Town Center - - - - - - - - - - - -
Flex R&D 5.32 - - 95,500 - - - - 5.32 - - 95,500
Subtotal Retail - - - - - - - - - - - -
Industrial - Flex R&D
Industrial - Flex R&D - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Nonresidential - - - - 1,369.00 0.30 - 18,000,000 1,369.00 0.30 - 18,000,000 Institutional
Institutional [1] 5.94 - - 102,300.00 1,432.00 - - 18,866,250.00 1,437.94 - - 18,968,550.00 Total Proposed Land Uses - - - - 116.00 - - - 116.00 - - - Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Institutional acreage assumed to be tax-exempt and is excluded from the EIFD analysis.
East of Temperance South of Jensen Total Buildout
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Table A-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
New Development Absorption Timeline
Land Use 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2075+ Total
Single Family
Neighborhood Residential 100 4,450 8,140 8,140 8,140 8,140 8,140 Multifamily
Neighborhood Town Center - 300 300 300 300 300 300
Community Town Center - 605 605 605 605 605 605
Mixed Residential - 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 Subtotal Multifamily Units - 1,930 1,930 1,930 1,930 1,930 1,930 Total Units 100 6,380 10,070 10,070 10,070 10,070 10,070 East of Temperance
Office - 4,900 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800
Retail - Community Town Center - 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500 Retail - Neighborhood Town Center - - 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 Subtotal ET Sq. Ft. - 25,400 102,300 102,300 102,300 102,300 102,300 South of Jensen
Low Absorption Scenario
Office 22,500 67,500 112,500 157,500 202,500 866,250 866,250 Industrial - Flex R&D 500,000 5,500,000 10,500,000 15,500,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 Subtotal SJ Low Sq. Ft. 522,500 5,567,500 10,612,500 15,657,500 18,202,500 18,866,250 18,866,250 High Absorption Scenario
Office 22,500 67,500 112,500 157,500 202,500 866,250 866,250 Industrial - Flex R&D 2,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 Subtotal SJ High Sq. Ft. 2,022,500 18,067,500 18,112,500 18,157,500 18,202,500 18,866,250 18,866,250 Total Nonres. Sq. Ft.
Low Absorption Scenario
Office 22,500 72,400 119,300 164,300 209,300 873,050 873,050 Retail - 20,500 95,500 95,500 95,500 95,500 95,500
Industrial 500,000 5,500,000 10,500,000 15,500,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 Total Nonres. Sq. Ft. (Low Abs. Scen.) 522,500 5,592,900 10,714,800 15,759,800 18,304,800 18,968,550 18,968,550 High Absorption Scenario
Office 22,500 72,400 119,300 164,300 209,300 873,050 873,050 Retail - 20,500 95,500 95,500 95,500 95,500 95,500
Industrial 2,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 Total Nonres. Sq. Ft. (High Abs. Scen.) 2,022,500 18,092,900 18,214,800 18,259,800 18,304,800 18,968,550 18,968,550 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
Cumulative New Development
Residential Units (East of Temperance)
Nonresidential Sq. Ft.
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Table A-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
New Development Assessed Value Absorption Timeline
Land Use 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2075+ [1] Total
Single Family
Neighborhood Residential $52,500,000 $2,336,250,000 $4, 273,500,000 $4,273,500,000 $4,273,500,000 $4,273,500,000 $4,273,500,000 Multifamily
Neighborhood Town Center - $100,500,000 $100,500,000 $100,500,000 $10 0,500,000 $100,500,000 $100,500,000 Community Town Center - $202,675,000 $202, 675,000 $202,675,000 $20 2,675,000 $202,675,000 $202,675,000 Mixed Residential - $343,375,000 $343,375,00 0 $343,375,000 $343,375,000 $343,375,000 $343,375,000 Subtotal Multifamily AV - $646,550,000 $646,550,000 $646,550,000 $646,550,000 $646,550,000 $646,550,000 Subtotal New Residential AV (2026$) $52,500,000 $2,982,800,000 $4,920,050,000 $4,920,050,000 $4,920,050,000 $4,920,050,000 $4,920,050, 000 Subtotal New Residential AV @ 3% Price Growth $59,089,000 $4,054,236,000 $7,345,031,000 $7,345,031,000 $7,345,031,000 $7,345,031,000 $ 7,345,031,000 East of Temperance
Office - $857,500 $1,190,000 $1, 190,000 $1,190,000 $1,190,000 $1,190,000 Retail - Community Town Center - $6,150, 000 $6,150,000 $6,150,000 $6,150,000 $6,150,000 $6,150,000 Retail - Neighborhood Town Center - - $22,500,000 $22,500,000 $22,500,000 $22,500,000 $22,500,000 Subtotal ET AV - $7,007,500 $29,840,000 $29,840,000 $29,840,000 $29,840,000 $29,840,000 South of Jensen
Low Absorption Scenario
Office $3,937,500 $11,812,500 $19,687,500 $27,562,500 $35,437,500 $151,593,750 $151,593,750 Industrial - Flex R&D $95,000,000 $1,045,000,000 $1,995, 000,000 $2,945,000,000 $3,42 0,000,000 $3,420,000,000 $3,420,000,000 Subtotal SJ AV (Low Abs. Scenario) $98,937,500 $1,056,812,500 $2,014,687,500 $2,972,562,500 $3,455,437,500 $3,571,593,750 $3,571,593,7 50 High Absorption Scenario
Office $3,937,500 $11,812,500 $19,687,500 $27,562,500 $35,437,500 $151,593,750 $151,593,750 Industrial - Flex R&D $380,000,000 $3,420,000,000 $3,420, 000,000 $3,420,000,000 $3,42 0,000,000 $3,420,000,000 $3,420,000,000 Subtotal SJ AV (High Abs. Scenario) $383,937,500 $3,431,812,500 $3,439,687,500 $3,447,562,500 $3,455,437,500 $3,571,593,750 $3,571,593 ,750 Total Nonresidential AV
Low Absorption Scenario
Subtotal New Nonres. AV (2026$) $98,937,500 $1,063,820,000 $2,044,527,500 $3,002,402,500 $3,485,277,500 $3,601,433,750 $3,601,433,750 Subtotal New Nonres. AV @ 3% Price Growth $111,355,000 $1,394,429, 000 $3,141,746,000 $5,442,050,000 $6,888,198,000 $7,382,584,000 $7,382,584,000 High Absorption Scenario
Subtotal New Nonres. AV (2026$) $383,937,500 $3,438,820,000 $3,469,527,500 $3,477,402,500 $3,485,277,500 $3,601,433,750 $3,601,433,750 Subtotal New Nonres. AV @ 3% Price Growth $432,125,000 $4,369,959, 000 $4,420,540,000 $4,440,576,000 $4,467,502,000 $4,961,888,000 $4,961,888,000 Total Development AV
Low Absorption Scenario
Subtotal New Nonres. AV (2026$) $151,437,500 $4,046,620,000 $6,964,577,500 $7,922,452,500 $8,405,327,500 $8,521,483,750 $8,521,483,750 Subtotal New Nonres. AV @ 3% Price Growth $170,444,000 $5,448,665,000 $10,486,777,000 $12,787,081,000 $14,233,229,000 $14,727,615,000 $14,727,615,000 High Absorption Scenario
Subtotal New Nonres. AV (2026$) $436,437,500 $6,421,620,000 $8,389,577,500 $8,397,452,500 $8,405,327,500 $8,521,483,750 $8,521,483,750 Subtotal New Nonres. AV @ 3% Price Growth $491,214,000 $8,424,195,000 $11,765,571,000 $11,785,607,000 $11,812,533,000 $12,306,919,000 $12,306,919,000 Source: City of Fresno; EPS.
[1] Assessed value attributable to new development in 2075 and beyond is not considered for the purpose of calcul ating potential EIFD revenues.
Cumulative New Development Assessed Value (AV)
Residential (East of Temperance)
Nonresidential
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Appendix 4-B
East of Temperance Tax Increment Revenue Supporting Tables Table B-1. Estimated EIFD Revenues - East of Temperance .......................................................... 4-B-1 Table B-2. Estimated Assessed Value Growth - East of Temperance ......................................... 4-B-2 Table B-3. Absorption Timeline - East of Temperance .................................................................... 4-B-3 Table B-4. New Development Assessed Value Timeline - East of Temperance ...................... 4-B-4 Table B-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Estimated EIFD Revenues - East of Temperance
EIFD Year Fiscal Year
Estimated
Assessed Value
Incremental
Value
1% Property
Tax
Estimated
City Share
Less
Administration
Net EIFD
Revenues
Formula A B = A - Base Year AV C = B * 1% D = C * 30.86% E = D * 5% F = D + E Base Year FY 2029-30 $21,282,000
1 FY 2030-31 $21,707,640 $425,640 $4,256 $1,314 ($66) $1,248 2 FY 2031-32 $81,230,793 $59,948,793 $599,488 $185,029 ($9,251) $175,778 3 FY 2032-33 $235,010,409 $213,728,409 $2,137,284 $659,662 ($32,983) $626,679 4 FY 2033-34 $436,430,617 $415,148,617 $4,151,486 $1,281,336 ($64,067) $1,217,269 5 FY 2034-35 $701,077,229 $679,795,229 $6,797,952 $2,098,155 ($104,908) $1,993,247 6 FY 2035-36 $1,011,947,774 $990,665,774 $9,906,658 $3,057,642 ($152,882) $2,904,760 7 FY 2036-37 $1,443,314,729 $1,422,032,729 $14,220,327 $4,389,035 ($219,452) $4,169,583 8 FY 2037-38 $1,923,267,024 $1,901,985,024 $19,019,850 $5,870,385 ($293,519) $5,576,865 9 FY 2038-39 $2,501,732,364 $2,480,450,364 $24,804,504 $7,655,790 ($382,789) $7,273,000 10 FY 2039-40 $3,106,744,012 $3,085,462,012 $30,854,620 $9,523,129 ($476,156) $9,046,972 11 FY 2040-41 $3,738,537,892 $3,717,255,892 $37,172,559 $11,473,130 ($573,657) $10,899,474 12 FY 2041-42 $4,389,416,650 $4,368,134,650 $43,681,346 $13,482,036 ($674,102) $12,807,934 13 FY 2042-43 $4,962,121,983 $4,940,839,983 $49,408,400 $15,249,663 ($762,483) $14,487,180 14 FY 2043-44 $5,524,723,422 $5,503,441,422 $55,034,414 $16,986,105 ($849,305) $16,136,800 15 FY 2044-45 $6,112,477,891 $6,091,195,891 $60,911,959 $18,800,181 ($940,009) $17,860,172 16 FY 2045-46 $6,726,305,449 $6,705,023,449 $67,050,234 $20,694,730 ($1,034,736) $19,659,993 17 FY 2046-47 $7,367,156,558 $7,345,874,558 $73,458,746 $22,672,686 ($1,133,634) $21,539,051 18 FY 2047-48 $8,036,014,689 $8,014,732,689 $80,147,327 $24,737,084 ($1,236,854) $23,500,230 19 FY 2048-49 $8,578,248,982 $8,556,966,982 $85,569,670 $26,410,664 ($1,320,533) $25,090,130 20 FY 2049-50 $8,749,813,962 $8,728,531,962 $87,285,320 $26,940,191 ($1,347,010) $25,593,181 21 FY 2050-51 $8,924,810,241 $8,903,528,241 $89,035,282 $27,480,308 ($1,374,015) $26,106,293 22 FY 2051-52 $9,103,306,446 $9,082,024,446 $90,820,244 $28,031,228 ($1,401,561) $26,629,667 23 FY 2052-53 $9,285,372,575 $9,264,090,575 $92,640,906 $28,593,166 ($1,429,658) $27,163,508 24 FY 2053-54 $9,471,080,027 $9,449,798,027 $94,497,980 $29,166,343 ($1,458,317) $27,708,026 25 FY 2054-55 $9,660,501,627 $9,639,219,627 $96,392,196 $29,750,984 ($1,487,549) $28,263,435 26 FY 2055-56 $9,853,711,660 $9,832,429,660 $98,324,297 $30,347,317 ($1,517,366) $28,829,951 27 FY 2056-57 $10,050,785,893 $10,029,503,893 $100,295,039 $30,955,577 ($1,547,779) $29,407,798 28 FY 2057-58 $10,251,801,611 $10,230,519,611 $102,305,196 $31,576,003 ($1,578,800) $29,997,202 29 FY 2058-59 $10,456,837,643 $10,435,555,643 $104,355,556 $32,208,836 ($1,610,442) $30,598,395 30 FY 2059-60 $10,665,974,396 $10,644,692,396 $106,446,924 $32,854,327 ($1,642,716) $31,211,610 31 FY 2060-61 $10,879,293,884 $10,858,011,884 $108,580,119 $33,512,727 ($1,675,636) $31,837,091 32 FY 2061-62 $11,096,879,761 $11,075,597,761 $110,755,978 $34,184,295 ($1,709,215) $32,475,081 33 FY 2062-63 $11,318,817,357 $11,297,535,357 $112,975,354 $34,869,295 ($1,743,465) $33,125,830 34 FY 2063-64 $11,545,193,704 $11,523,911,704 $115,239,117 $35,567,995 ($1,778,400) $33,789,595 35 FY 2064-65 $11,776,097,578 $11,754,815,578 $117,548,156 $36,280,668 ($1,814,033) $34,466,635 36 FY 2065-66 $12,011,619,529 $11,990,337,529 $119,903,375 $37,007,595 ($1,850,380) $35,157,215 37 FY 2066-67 $12,251,851,920 $12,230,569,920 $122,305,699 $37,749,061 ($1,887,453) $35,861,608 38 FY 2067-68 $12,496,888,958 $12,475,606,958 $124,756,070 $38,505,356 ($1,925,268) $36,580,088 39 FY 2068-69 $12,746,826,738 $12,725,544,738 $127,255,447 $39,276,777 ($1,963,839) $37,312,938 40 FY 2069-70 $13,001,763,272 $12,980,481,272 $129,804,813 $40,063,626 ($2,003,181) $38,060,445 41 FY 2070-71 $13,261,798,538 $13,240,516,538 $132,405,165 $40,866,212 ($2,043,311) $38,822,901 42 FY 2071-72 $13,527,034,508 $13,505,752,508 $135,057,525 $41,684,850 ($2,084,243) $39,600,608 43 FY 2072-73 $13,797,575,199 $13,776,293,199 $137,762,932 $42,519,861 ($2,125,993) $40,393,868 44 FY 2073-74 $14,073,526,703 $14,052,244,703 $140,522,447 $43,371,572 ($2,168,579) $41,202,993 45 FY 2074-75 $14,354,997,237 $14,333,715,237 $143,337,152 $44,240,317 ($2,212,016) $42,028,301 Source: EPS.
East of Temperance EIFD Revenues
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-B-1
Table B-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Estimated Assessed Value Growth - East of Temperance
EIFD Year
Calendar
Year Fiscal Year
Beginning
Assessed
Value [1]
2%
Growth
Assessed Value
from New
Development
Ending
Assessed
Value
Base Year 2029 FY 2029-30 $21,282,000 $425,640 - $21,707,640 1 2030 FY 2030-31 $21,707,640 $434,153 $59,089,000 $81,230,793 2 2031 FY 2031-32 $81,230,793 $1,624,616 $152,155,000 $235,010,409 3 2032 FY 2032-33 $235,010,409 $4,700,208 $196,720,000 $436,430,617 4 2033 FY 2033-34 $436,430,617 $8,728,612 $255,918,000 $701,077,229 5 2034 FY 2034-35 $701,077,229 $14,021,545 $296,849,000 $1,011,947,774 6 2035 FY 2035-36 $1,011,947,774 $20,238,955 $411,128,000 $1,443,314,729 7 2036 FY 2036-37 $1,443,314,729 $28,866,295 $451,086,000 $1,923,267,024 8 2037 FY 2037-38 $1,923,267,024 $38,465,340 $540,000,000 $2,501,732,364 9 2038 FY 2038-39 $2,501,732,364 $50,034,647 $554,977,000 $3,106,744,012 10 2039 FY 2039-40 $3,106,744,012 $62,134,880 $569,659,000 $3,738,537,892 11 2040 FY 2040-41 $3,738,537,892 $74,770,758 $576,108,000 $4,389,416,650 12 2041 FY 2041-42 $4,389,416,650 $87,788,333 $484,917,000 $4,962,121,983 13 2042 FY 2042-43 $4,962,121,983 $99,242,440 $463,359,000 $5,524,723,422 14 2043 FY 2043-44 $5,524,723,422 $110,494,468 $477,260,000 $6,112,477,891 15 2044 FY 2044-45 $6,112,477,891 $122,249,558 $491,578,000 $6,726,305,449 16 2045 FY 2045-46 $6,726,305,449 $134,526,109 $506,325,000 $7,367,156,558 17 2046 FY 2046-47 $7,367,156,558 $147,343,131 $521,515,000 $8,036,014,689 18 2047 FY 2047-48 $8,036,014,689 $160,720,294 $381,514,000 $8,578,248,982 19 2048 FY 2048-49 $8,578,248,982 $171,564,980 - $8,749,813,962 20 2049 FY 2049-50 $8,749,813,962 $174,996,279 - $8,924,810,241 21 2050 FY 2050-51 $8,924,810,241 $178,496,205 - $9,103,306,446 22 2051 FY 2051-52 $9,103,306,446 $182,066,129 - $9,285,372,575 23 2052 FY 2052-53 $9,285,372,575 $185,707,452 - $9,471,080,027 24 2053 FY 2053-54 $9,471,080,027 $189,421,601 - $9,660,501,627 25 2054 FY 2054-55 $9,660,501,627 $193,210,033 - $9,853,711,660 26 2055 FY 2055-56 $9,853,711,660 $197,074,233 - $10,050,785,893 27 2056 FY 2056-57 $10,050,785,893 $201,015,718 - $10,251,801,611 28 2057 FY 2057-58 $10,251,801,611 $205,036,032 - $10,456,837,643 29 2058 FY 2058-59 $10,456,837,643 $209,136,753 - $10,665,974,396 30 2059 FY 2059-60 $10,665,974,396 $213,319,488 - $10,879,293,884 31 2060 FY 2060-61 $10,879,293,884 $217,585,878 - $11,096,879,761 32 2061 FY 2061-62 $11,096,879,761 $221,937,595 - $11,318,817,357 33 2062 FY 2062-63 $11,318,817,357 $226,376,347 - $11,545,193,704 34 2063 FY 2063-64 $11,545,193,704 $230,903,874 - $11,776,097,578 35 2064 FY 2064-65 $11,776,097,578 $235,521,952 - $12,011,619,529 36 2065 FY 2065-66 $12,011,619,529 $240,232,391 - $12,251,851,920 37 2066 FY 2066-67 $12,251,851,920 $245,037,038 - $12,496,888,958 38 2067 FY 2067-68 $12,496,888,958 $249,937,779 - $12,746,826,738 39 2068 FY 2068-69 $12,746,826,738 $254,936,535 - $13,001,763,272 40 2069 FY 2069-70 $13,001,763,272 $260,035,265 - $13,261,798,538 41 2070 FY 2070-71 $13,261,798,538 $265,235,971 - $13,527,034,508 42 2071 FY 2071-72 $13,527,034,508 $270,540,690 - $13,797,575,199 43 2072 FY 2072-73 $13,797,575,199 $275,951,504 - $14,073,526,703 44 2073 FY 2073-74 $14,073,526,703 $281,470,534 - $14,354,997,237 45 2074 FY 2074-75 $14,354,997,237 $287,099,945 - $14,642,097,181 [1] Beginning Assessed Values are the basis for EIFD revenues. Ending Assessed Values are shown only to illustrate how the next fiscal year's Beginning AV is derived, incorporating 2% growth and newly added AV of the prior fiscal year.
Source: EPS.
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-B-2
Table B-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Absorption Timeline - East of Temperance
Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative
2030 100 - - - - 100 100 - - - - -
2031 250 - - - - 250 350 - - - - -
2032 250 16 31 53 100 350 700 - - - - -
2033 300 24 47 80 151 451 1,151 - - - - -
2034 350 24 47 80 151 501 1,652 - - - - -
2035 500 24 53 80 157 657 2,309 - - - - -
2036 500 32 62 106 200 700 3,009 - 20,500 - 20,500 20,500 2037 550 48 93 159 300 850 3,859 4,900 - - 4,900 25,400 2038 550 48 93 159 300 850 4,709 - - - - 25,400
2039 550 44 93 159 296 846 5,555 - - - - 25,400
2040 550 40 86 149 275 825 6,380 - - - - 25,400
2041 550 - - - - 550 6,930 - - 75,000 75,000 100,400
2042 550 - - - - 550 7,480 - - - - 100,400
2043 550 - - - - 550 8,030 - - - - 100,400
2044 550 - - - - 550 8,580 - - - - 100,400
2045 550 - - - - 550 9,130 - - - - 100,400
2046 550 - - - - 550 9,680 - - - - 100,400
2047 390 - - - - 390 10,070 1,900 - - 1,900 102,300
2048 - - - - - - 10,070 - - - - 102,300
2049 - - - - - - 10,070 - - - - 102,300
2050 - - - - - - 10,070 - - - - 102,300
Total 8,140 300 605 1,025 1,930 10,070 10,070 6,800 20,500 75,000 102,300 102,300 Source: EPS.
Total New Units
Nonresidential Development (Sq. Ft.)
Total New Sq. Ft.
Residential Development (Units)
Office
Retail
(Neighborhood
Town Center)
Retail
(Community
Town Center)Year
Single-Family
Development
Multi-Family Development
Community
Town Center
Mixed
Residential
Neighborhood
Town Center Total
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-B-3
Table B-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
New Development Assessed Value Timeline - East of Temperance Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative
2030 $52,500,000 - - - - $52,500,000 - - - - $52,500,000 $52,500,000 $59,089,000 $59,089,000 2031 $131,250,000 - - - - $131,250,000 - - - - $131,250,000 $183,750,000 $152,155,000 $211,244,000 2032 $131,250,000 $10,385,000 $17,755,000 $5,360,000 $33,500,000 $164,750,000 - - - - $164,750,000 $348,500,000 $196,720,000 $407,964,000 2033 $157,500,000 $15,745,000 $26,800,000 $8,040,000 $50,585,000 $208,085,000 - - - - $208,085,000 $556,585,000 $255,918,000 $663,882,000 2034 $183,750,000 $15,745,000 $26,800,000 $8,040,000 $50,585,000 $234,335,000 - - - - $234,335,000 $790,920,000 $296,849,000 $960,731,000 2035 $262,500,000 $17,755,000 $26,800,000 $8,040,000 $52,595,000 $315,095,000 - - - - $315,095,000 $1,106,015,000 $411,128,000 $1,371,859,000 2036 $262,500,000 $20,770,000 $35,510,000 $10,720,000 $67,000,000 $329,500,000 - $6,150,000 - $6,150,000 $335,650,000 $1,441,665,000 $451,086,000 $1,822,945,000 2037 $288,750,000 $31,155,000 $53,265,000 $16,080,000 $100,500,000 $389,250,000 $857,500 - - $857,500 $390,107,500 $1,831,772,500 $540,000,000 $2,362,945,000 2038 $288,750,000 $31,155,000 $53,265,000 $16,080,000 $100,500,000 $389,250,000 - - - - $389,250,000 $2,221,022,500 $554,977,000 $2,917,922,000 2039 $288,750,000 $31,155,000 $53,265,000 $14,740,000 $99,160,000 $387,910,000 - - - - $387,910,000 $2,608,932,500 $569,659,000 $3,487,581,000 2040 $288,750,000 $28,810,000 $49,915,000 $13,400,000 $92,125,000 $380,875,000 - - - - $380,875,000 $2,989,807,500 $576,108,000 $4,063,689,000 2041 $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 - - $22,500,000 $22,500,000 $311,250,000 $3,301,057,500 $484,917,000 $4,548,606,000 2042 $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 $3,589,807,500 $463,359,000 $5,011,965,000 2043 $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 $3,878,557,500 $477,260,000 $5,489,225,000 2044 $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 $4,167,307,500 $491,578,000 $5,980,803,000 2045 $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 $4,456,057,500 $506,325,000 $6,487,128,000 2046 $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 - - - - $288,750,000 $4,744,807,500 $521,515,000 $7,008,643,000 2047 $204,750,000 - - - - $204,750,000 $332,500 - - $332,500 $205,082,500 $4,949,890,000 $381,514,000 $7,390,157,000 2048 - - - - - - - - - - - $4,949,890,000 - $7,390,157,000 2049 - - - - - - - - - - - $4,949,890,000 - $7,390,157,000 2050 - - - - - - - - - - - $4,949,890,000 - $7,390,157,000 Total $4,273,500,000 $202,675,000 $343,375,000 $100,500,000 $646,550,000 $4,920,050,000 $1,190,000 $6,150,000 $22,500,000 $29,840,000 $4,949,890,000 $4,949,890,000 $7,390,157,000 $7,390,157,000 Source: EPS.
2026$ 3% Price Growth
Total Development
Retail
(Community Town
Center)
Total
Residential
Development AV
Residential Development AV
Total
Nonresidential
Development AV
Nonresidential Development AV
Year
Single-Family
Development
Multi-Family Development by Product Type
Office
Retail
(Neighborhood
Town Center)
Community Town
Center Mixed Residential
Neighborhood Town
Center
Total Multifamily
Development
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-B-4
Appendix 4-C
South of Jensen Tax Increment Revenue Supporting Tables Low Absorption Scenario
Table C-1. Estimated EIFD Revenues - South of Jensen
(Low Absorption Scenario) .................................................................................................... 4-C-1 Table C-2. Estimated Assessed Value Growth - South of Jensen (Low Absorption Scenario) .................................................................................................... 4-C-2 Table C-3. Absorption Timeline - South of Jensen
(Low Absorption Scenario) .................................................................................................... 4-C-3 Table C-4. New Development Assessed Value Timeline - South of Jensen (Low Absorption Scenario) .................................................................................................... 4-C-4 High Absorption Scenario
Table C-5. E stimated EIFD Revenues - South of Jensen
(High Absorption Scenario) ................................................................................................... 4-C-5 Table C-6. Estimated Assessed Value Growth - South of Jensen (High Absorption Scenario) ................................................................................................... 4-C-6 Table C-7. Absorption Timeline - South of Jensen
(High Absorption Scenario) ................................................................................................... 4-C-7 Table C-8. New Development Assessed Value Timeline - South of Jensen (High Absorption Scenario) ................................................................................................... 4-C-8 Table C-1
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Estimated EIFD Revenues - South of Jensen (Low Absorption Scenario) EIFD Year Fiscal Year
Estimated
Assessed Value
Incremental
Value
1% Property
Tax
Estimated
City Share
Less
Administration
Net EIFD
Revenues
Formula A B = A - Base Year Value C = B * 1% D = C * 23.70% E = D * 5% F = D + E Base Year FY 2029-30 $37,086,000
1 FY 2030-31 $37,827,720 $741,720 $7,417 $1,758 ($88) $1,670 2 FY 2031-32 $149,939,274 $112,853,274 $1,128,533 $267,499 ($13,375) $254,124 3 FY 2032-33 $263,069,060 $225,983,060 $2,259,831 $535,654 ($26,783) $508,872 4 FY 2033-34 $381,765,441 $344,679,441 $3,446,794 $817,004 ($40,850) $776,154 5 FY 2034-35 $506,238,750 $469,152,750 $4,691,527 $1,112,046 ($55,602) $1,056,444 6 FY 2035-36 $636,706,525 $599,620,525 $5,996,205 $1,421,298 ($71,065) $1,350,233 7 FY 2036-37 $778,531,655 $741,445,655 $7,414,457 $1,757,470 ($87,874) $1,669,597 8 FY 2037-38 $921,774,289 $884,688,289 $8,846,883 $2,097,002 ($104,850) $1,992,152 9 FY 2038-39 $1,071,711,774 $1,034,625,774 $10,346,258 $2,452,404 ($122,620) $2,329,783 10 FY 2039-40 $1,228,593,010 $1,191,507,010 $11,915,070 $2,824,264 ($141,213) $2,683,051 11 FY 2040-41 $1,392,675,870 $1,355,589,870 $13,555,899 $3,213,194 ($160,660) $3,052,535 12 FY 2041-42 $1,570,181,387 $1,533,095,387 $15,330,954 $3,633,941 ($181,697) $3,452,244 13 FY 2042-43 $1,749,592,015 $1,712,506,015 $17,125,060 $4,059,203 ($202,960) $3,856,243 14 FY 2043-44 $1,937,030,855 $1,899,944,855 $18,999,449 $4,503,495 ($225,175) $4,278,320 15 FY 2044-45 $2,132,792,473 $2,095,706,473 $20,957,065 $4,967,514 ($248,376) $4,719,138 16 FY 2045-46 $2,337,179,322 $2,300,093,322 $23,000,933 $5,451,978 ($272,599) $5,179,379 17 FY 2046-47 $2,557,410,908 $2,520,324,908 $25,203,249 $5,974,000 ($298,700) $5,675,300 18 FY 2047-48 $2,780,140,127 $2,743,054,127 $27,430,541 $6,501,941 ($325,097) $6,176,844 19 FY 2048-49 $3,012,470,929 $2,975,384,929 $29,753,849 $7,052,642 ($352,632) $6,700,010 20 FY 2049-50 $3,254,750,348 $3,217,664,348 $32,176,643 $7,626,924 ($381,346) $7,245,578 21 FY 2050-51 $3,507,336,355 $3,470,250,355 $34,702,504 $8,225,636 ($411,282) $7,814,354 22 FY 2051-52 $3,778,603,082 $3,741,517,082 $37,415,171 $8,868,627 ($443,431) $8,425,196 23 FY 2052-53 $4,053,084,143 $4,015,998,143 $40,159,981 $9,519,238 ($475,962) $9,043,276 24 FY 2053-54 $4,339,021,826 $4,301,935,826 $43,019,358 $10,197,004 ($509,850) $9,687,154 25 FY 2054-55 $4,636,824,263 $4,599,738,263 $45,997,383 $10,902,894 ($545,145) $10,357,749 26 FY 2055-56 $4,946,913,748 $4,909,827,748 $49,098,277 $11,637,908 ($581,895) $11,056,013 27 FY 2056-57 $5,279,005,023 $5,241,919,023 $52,419,190 $12,425,074 ($621,254) $11,803,820 28 FY 2057-58 $5,615,175,123 $5,578,089,123 $55,780,891 $13,221,907 ($661,095) $12,560,812 29 FY 2058-59 $5,964,986,626 $5,927,900,626 $59,279,006 $14,051,076 ($702,554) $13,348,522 30 FY 2059-60 $6,328,919,358 $6,291,833,358 $62,918,334 $14,913,716 ($745,686) $14,168,030 31 FY 2060-61 $6,707,469,746 $6,670,383,746 $66,703,837 $15,811,005 ($790,550) $15,020,455 32 FY 2061-62 $7,111,907,141 $7,074,821,141 $70,748,211 $16,769,655 ($838,483) $15,931,172 33 FY 2062-63 $7,521,462,283 $7,484,376,283 $74,843,763 $17,740,435 ($887,022) $16,853,414 34 FY 2063-64 $7,947,227,529 $7,910,141,529 $79,101,415 $18,749,639 ($937,482) $17,812,157 35 FY 2064-65 $8,389,769,080 $8,352,683,080 $83,526,831 $19,798,608 ($989,930) $18,808,678 36 FY 2065-66 $8,849,668,461 $8,812,582,461 $88,125,825 $20,888,721 ($1,044,436) $19,844,285 37 FY 2066-67 $9,339,999,830 $9,302,913,830 $93,029,138 $22,050,968 ($1,102,548) $20,948,420 38 FY 2067-68 $9,526,799,827 $9,489,713,827 $94,897,138 $22,493,746 ($1,124,687) $21,369,058 39 FY 2068-69 $9,717,335,824 $9,680,249,824 $96,802,498 $22,945,379 ($1,147,269) $21,798,110 40 FY 2069-70 $9,911,682,540 $9,874,596,540 $98,745,965 $23,406,044 ($1,170,302) $22,235,742 41 FY 2070-71 $10,109,916,191 $10,072,830,191 $100,728,302 $23,875,923 ($1,193,796) $22,682,127 42 FY 2071-72 $10,326,570,515 $10,289,484,515 $102,894,845 $24,389,465 ($1,219,473) $23,169,992 43 FY 2072-73 $10,533,101,925 $10,496,015,925 $104,960,159 $24,879,013 ($1,243,951) $23,635,062 44 FY 2073-74 $10,743,763,963 $10,706,677,963 $107,066,780 $25,378,351 ($1,268,918) $24,109,434 45 FY 2074-75 $10,958,639,243 $10,921,553,243 $109,215,532 $25,887,676 ($1,294,384) $24,593,293 Source: EPS.
South of Jensen EIFD Revenues
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-1
Table C-2
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Estimated Assessed Value Growth - South of Jensen (Low Absorption Scenario) EIFD Year
Calendar
Year Fiscal Year
Beginning
Assessed
Value [1]
2%
Growth
Assessed Value
from New
Development [2]
Ending
Assessed
Value
Base Year 2029 FY 2029-30 $37,086,000 $741,720 - $37,827,720 1 2030 FY 2030-31 $37,827,720 $756,554 $111,355,000 $149,939,274 2 2031 FY 2031-32 $149,939,274 $2,998,785 $110,131,000 $263,069,060 3 2032 FY 2032-33 $263,069,060 $5,261,381 $113,435,000 $381,765,441 4 2033 FY 2033-34 $381,765,441 $7,635,309 $116,838,000 $506,238,750 5 2034 FY 2034-35 $506,238,750 $10,124,775 $120,343,000 $636,706,525 6 2035 FY 2035-36 $636,706,525 $12,734,130 $129,091,000 $778,531,655 7 2036 FY 2036-37 $778,531,655 $15,570,633 $127,672,000 $921,774,289 8 2037 FY 2037-38 $921,774,289 $18,435,486 $131,502,000 $1,071,711,774 9 2038 FY 2038-39 $1,071,711,774 $21,434,235 $135,447,000 $1,228,593,010 10 2039 FY 2039-40 $1,228,593,010 $24,571,860 $139,511,000 $1,392,675,870 11 2040 FY 2040-41 $1,392,675,870 $27,853,517 $149,652,000 $1,570,181,387 12 2041 FY 2041-42 $1,570,181,387 $31,403,628 $148,007,000 $1,749,592,015 13 2042 FY 2042-43 $1,749,592,015 $34,991,840 $152,447,000 $1,937,030,855 14 2043 FY 2043-44 $1,937,030,855 $38,740,617 $157,021,000 $2,132,792,473 15 2044 FY 2044-45 $2,132,792,473 $42,655,849 $161,731,000 $2,337,179,322 16 2045 FY 2045-46 $2,337,179,322 $46,743,586 $173,488,000 $2,557,410,908 17 2046 FY 2046-47 $2,557,410,908 $51,148,218 $171,581,000 $2,780,140,127 18 2047 FY 2047-48 $2,780,140,127 $55,602,803 $176,728,000 $3,012,470,929 19 2048 FY 2048-49 $3,012,470,929 $60,249,419 $182,030,000 $3,254,750,348 20 2049 FY 2049-50 $3,254,750,348 $65,095,007 $187,491,000 $3,507,336,355 21 2050 FY 2050-51 $3,507,336,355 $70,146,727 $201,120,000 $3,778,603,082 22 2051 FY 2051-52 $3,778,603,082 $75,572,062 $198,909,000 $4,053,084,143 23 2052 FY 2052-53 $4,053,084,143 $81,061,683 $204,876,000 $4,339,021,826 24 2053 FY 2053-54 $4,339,021,826 $86,780,437 $211,022,000 $4,636,824,263 25 2054 FY 2054-55 $4,636,824,263 $92,736,485 $217,353,000 $4,946,913,748 26 2055 FY 2055-56 $4,946,913,748 $98,938,275 $233,153,000 $5,279,005,023 27 2056 FY 2056-57 $5,279,005,023 $105,580,100 $230,590,000 $5,615,175,123 28 2057 FY 2057-58 $5,615,175,123 $112,303,502 $237,508,000 $5,964,986,626 29 2058 FY 2058-59 $5,964,986,626 $119,299,733 $244,633,000 $6,328,919,358 30 2059 FY 2059-60 $6,328,919,358 $126,578,387 $251,972,000 $6,707,469,746 31 2060 FY 2060-61 $6,707,469,746 $134,149,395 $270,288,000 $7,111,907,141 32 2061 FY 2061-62 $7,111,907,141 $142,238,143 $267,317,000 $7,521,462,283 33 2062 FY 2062-63 $7,521,462,283 $150,429,246 $275,336,000 $7,947,227,529 34 2063 FY 2063-64 $7,947,227,529 $158,944,551 $283,597,000 $8,389,769,080 35 2064 FY 2064-65 $8,389,769,080 $167,795,382 $292,104,000 $8,849,668,461 36 2065 FY 2065-66 $8,849,668,461 $176,993,369 $313,338,000 $9,339,999,830 37 2066 FY 2066-67 $9,339,999,830 $186,799,997 - $9,526,799,827 38 2067 FY 2067-68 $9,526,799,827 $190,535,997 - $9,717,335,824 39 2068 FY 2068-69 $9,717,335,824 $194,346,716 - $9,911,682,540 40 2069 FY 2069-70 $9,911,682,540 $198,233,651 - $10,109,916,191 41 2070 FY 2070-71 $10,109,916,191 $202,198,324 $14,456,000 $10,326,570,515 42 2071 FY 2071-72 $10,326,570,515 $206,531,410 - $10,533,101,925 43 2072 FY 2072-73 $10,533,101,925 $210,662,038 - $10,743,763,963 44 2073 FY 2073-74 $10,743,763,963 $214,875,279 - $10,958,639,243 45 2074 FY 2074-75 $10,958,639,243 $219,172,785 - $11,177,812,028 Source: EPS.
[1] Beginning Assessed Values are the basis for EIFD revenues. Ending Assessed Values are shown only to illustrate how the next fiscal year's Beginning AV is derived, incorporating 2% growth and newly added AV of the prior fiscal year.
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-2
Table C-3
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Absorption Timeline - South of Jensen (Low Absorption Scenario) Annual Cumulative
2030 22,500 500,000 522,500 522,500
2031 - 500,000 500,000 1,022,500
2032 - 500,000 500,000 1,522,500
2033 - 500,000 500,000 2,022,500
2034 - 500,000 500,000 2,522,500
2035 22,500 500,000 522,500 3,045,000
2036 - 500,000 500,000 3,545,000
2037 - 500,000 500,000 4,045,000
2038 - 500,000 500,000 4,545,000
2039 - 500,000 500,000 5,045,000
2040 22,500 500,000 522,500 5,567,500
2041 - 500,000 500,000 6,067,500
2042 - 500,000 500,000 6,567,500
2043 - 500,000 500,000 7,067,500
2044 - 500,000 500,000 7,567,500
2045 22,500 500,000 522,500 8,090,000
2046 - 500,000 500,000 8,590,000
2047 - 500,000 500,000 9,090,000
2048 - 500,000 500,000 9,590,000
2049 - 500,000 500,000 10,090,000
2050 22,500 500,000 522,500 10,612,500
2051 - 500,000 500,000 11,112,500
2052 - 500,000 500,000 11,612,500
2053 - 500,000 500,000 12,112,500
2054 - 500,000 500,000 12,612,500
2055 22,500 500,000 522,500 13,135,000
2056 - 500,000 500,000 13,635,000
2057 - 500,000 500,000 14,135,000
2058 - 500,000 500,000 14,635,000
2059 - 500,000 500,000 15,135,000
2060 22,500 500,000 522,500 15,657,500
2061 - 500,000 500,000 16,157,500
2062 - 500,000 500,000 16,657,500
2063 - 500,000 500,000 17,157,500
2064 - 500,000 500,000 17,657,500
2065 22,500 500,000 522,500 18,180,000
2066 - - - 18,180,000
2067 - - - 18,180,000
2068 - - - 18,180,000
2069 - - - 18,180,000
2070 22,500 - 22,500 18,202,500
2071 - - - 18,202,500
2072 - - - 18,202,500
2073 - - - 18,202,500
2074 - - - 18,202,500
2075 663,750 - 663,750 18,866,250
Total 866,250 18,000,000 18,866,250 18,866,250
Source: EPS.
Nonresidential Development (Sq. Ft.)
Year Office
Industrial
(Flex R&D)
Total New Sq. Ft.
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-3
Table C-4
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
New Development Assessed Value Timeline - South of Jensen (Low Absorption Scenario) Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative
2030 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $98,937,500 $111,355,000 $111,355,000 2031 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $193,937,500 $110,131,000 $221,486,000 2032 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $288,937,500 $113,435,000 $334,921,000 2033 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $383,937,500 $116,838,000 $451,759,000 2034 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $478,937,500 $120,343,000 $572,102,000 2035 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $577,875,000 $129,091,000 $701,193,000 2036 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $672,875,000 $127,672,000 $828,865,000 2037 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $767,875,000 $131,502,000 $960,367,000 2038 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $862,875,000 $135,447,000 $1,095,814,000 2039 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $957,875,000 $139,511,000 $1,235,325,000 2040 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $1,056,812,500 $149,652,000 $1,384,977,000 2041 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,151,812,500 $148,007,000 $1,532,984,000 2042 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,246,812,500 $152,447,000 $1,685,431,000 2043 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,341,812,500 $157,021,000 $1,842,452,000 2044 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,436,812,500 $161,731,000 $2,004,183,000 2045 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $1,535,750,000 $173,488,000 $2,177,671,000 2046 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,630,750,000 $171,581,000 $2,349,252,000 2047 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,725,750,000 $176,728,000 $2,525,980,000 2048 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,820,750,000 $182,030,000 $2,708,010,000 2049 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $1,915,750,000 $187,491,000 $2,895,501,000 2050 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $2,014,687,500 $201,120,000 $3,096,621,000 2051 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,109,687,500 $198,909,000 $3,295,530,000 2052 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,204,687,500 $204,876,000 $3,500,406,000 2053 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,299,687,500 $211,022,000 $3,711,428,000 2054 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,394,687,500 $217,353,000 $3,928,781,000 2055 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $2,493,625,000 $233,153,000 $4,161,934,000 2056 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,588,625,000 $230,590,000 $4,392,524,000 2057 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,683,625,000 $237,508,000 $4,630,032,000 2058 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,778,625,000 $244,633,000 $4,874,665,000 2059 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $2,873,625,000 $251,972,000 $5,126,637,000 2060 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $2,972,562,500 $270,288,000 $5,396,925,000 2061 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $3,067,562,500 $267,317,000 $5,664,242,000 2062 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $3,162,562,500 $275,336,000 $5,939,578,000 2063 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $3,257,562,500 $283,597,000 $6,223,175,000 2064 - $95,000,000 $95,000,000 $3,352,562,500 $292,104,000 $6,515,279,000 2065 $3,937,500 $95,000,000 $98,937,500 $3,451,500,000 $313,338,000 $6,828,617,000 2066 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $6,828,617,000
2067 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $6,828,617,000
2068 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $6,828,617,000
2069 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $6,828,617,000
2070 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,455,437,500 $14,456,000 $6,843,073,000 2071 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $6,843,073,000
2072 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $6,843,073,000
2073 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $6,843,073,000
2074 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $6,843,073,000
2075 $116,156,250 - $116,156,250 $3,571,593,750 $494,386,000 $7,337,459,000 Total $151,593,750 $3,420,000,000 $3,571,593,750 $3,571,593,750 $7,337,459,000 $7,337,459,000 Source: EPS.
Nonresidential Development
2026$ 3% Price Growth
Total Development
Year Office
Industrial
(Flex R&D)
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-4
Table C-5
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Estimated EIFD Revenues - South of Jensen (High Absorption Scenario) EIFD Year Fiscal Year
Estimated
Assessed Value
Incremental
Value
1% Property
Tax
Estimated
City Share
Less
Administration
Net EIFD
Revenues
Formula A B = A - Base Year Value C = B * 1% D = C * 23.70% E = D * 5% F = D + E Base Year FY 2029-30 $37,086,000
1 FY 2030-31 $37,827,720 $741,720 $7,417 $1,758 ($88) $1,670 2 FY 2031-32 $470,709,274 $433,623,274 $4,336,233 $1,027,830 ($51,391) $976,438 3 FY 2032-33 $920,647,460 $883,561,460 $8,835,615 $2,094,332 ($104,717) $1,989,615 4 FY 2033-34 $1,392,800,409 $1,355,714,409 $13,557,144 $3,213,489 ($160,674) $3,052,815 5 FY 2034-35 $1,888,008,417 $1,850,922,417 $18,509,224 $4,387,295 ($219,365) $4,167,931 6 FY 2035-36 $2,407,141,586 $2,370,055,586 $23,700,556 $5,617,812 ($280,891) $5,336,921 7 FY 2036-37 $2,956,235,417 $2,919,149,417 $29,191,494 $6,919,345 ($345,967) $6,573,378 8 FY 2037-38 $3,526,048,126 $3,488,962,126 $34,889,621 $8,269,989 ($413,499) $7,856,489 9 FY 2038-39 $4,122,578,088 $4,085,492,088 $40,854,921 $9,683,961 ($484,198) $9,199,763 10 FY 2039-40 $4,746,818,650 $4,709,732,650 $47,097,326 $11,163,617 ($558,181) $10,605,436 11 FY 2040-41 $4,841,755,023 $4,804,669,023 $48,046,690 $11,388,647 ($569,432) $10,819,215 12 FY 2041-42 $4,944,546,123 $4,907,460,123 $49,074,601 $11,632,296 ($581,615) $11,050,681 13 FY 2042-43 $5,043,437,046 $5,006,351,046 $50,063,510 $11,866,700 ($593,335) $11,273,365 14 FY 2043-44 $5,144,305,787 $5,107,219,787 $51,072,198 $12,105,792 ($605,290) $11,500,502 15 FY 2044-45 $5,247,191,903 $5,210,105,903 $52,101,059 $12,349,666 ($617,483) $11,732,183 16 FY 2045-46 $5,352,135,741 $5,315,049,741 $53,150,497 $12,598,417 ($629,921) $11,968,497 17 FY 2046-47 $5,466,082,455 $5,428,996,455 $54,289,965 $12,868,509 ($643,425) $12,225,083 18 FY 2047-48 $5,575,404,104 $5,538,318,104 $55,383,181 $13,127,637 ($656,382) $12,471,255 19 FY 2048-49 $5,686,912,187 $5,649,826,187 $56,498,262 $13,391,948 ($669,597) $12,722,350 20 FY 2049-50 $5,800,650,430 $5,763,564,430 $57,635,644 $13,661,545 ($683,077) $12,978,468 21 FY 2050-51 $5,916,663,439 $5,879,577,439 $58,795,774 $13,936,534 ($696,827) $13,239,707 22 FY 2051-52 $6,043,000,708 $6,005,914,708 $60,059,147 $14,235,995 ($711,800) $13,524,195 23 FY 2052-53 $6,163,860,722 $6,126,774,722 $61,267,747 $14,522,473 ($726,124) $13,796,349 24 FY 2053-54 $6,287,137,936 $6,250,051,936 $62,500,519 $14,814,680 ($740,734) $14,073,946 25 FY 2054-55 $6,412,880,695 $6,375,794,695 $63,757,947 $15,112,732 ($755,637) $14,357,096 26 FY 2055-56 $6,541,138,309 $6,504,052,309 $65,040,523 $15,416,745 ($770,837) $14,645,908 27 FY 2056-57 $6,681,240,075 $6,644,154,075 $66,441,541 $15,748,832 ($787,442) $14,961,391 28 FY 2057-58 $6,814,864,877 $6,777,778,877 $67,777,789 $16,065,567 ($803,278) $15,262,289 29 FY 2058-59 $6,951,162,174 $6,914,076,174 $69,140,762 $16,388,637 ($819,432) $15,569,205 30 FY 2059-60 $7,090,185,418 $7,053,099,418 $70,530,994 $16,718,167 ($835,908) $15,882,259 31 FY 2060-61 $7,231,989,126 $7,194,903,126 $71,949,031 $17,054,289 ($852,714) $16,201,574 32 FY 2061-62 $7,387,385,908 $7,350,299,908 $73,502,999 $17,422,630 ($871,132) $16,551,499 33 FY 2062-63 $7,535,133,627 $7,498,047,627 $74,980,476 $17,772,841 ($888,642) $16,884,199 34 FY 2063-64 $7,685,836,299 $7,648,750,299 $76,487,503 $18,130,056 ($906,503) $17,223,553 35 FY 2064-65 $7,839,553,025 $7,802,467,025 $78,024,670 $18,494,415 ($924,721) $17,569,695 36 FY 2065-66 $7,996,344,086 $7,959,258,086 $79,592,581 $18,866,062 ($943,303) $17,922,759 37 FY 2066-67 $8,168,740,967 $8,131,654,967 $81,316,550 $19,274,699 ($963,735) $18,310,964 38 FY 2067-68 $8,332,115,787 $8,295,029,787 $82,950,298 $19,661,951 ($983,098) $18,678,854 39 FY 2068-69 $8,498,758,102 $8,461,672,102 $84,616,721 $20,056,948 ($1,002,847) $19,054,101 40 FY 2069-70 $8,668,733,265 $8,631,647,265 $86,316,473 $20,459,845 ($1,022,992) $19,436,853 41 FY 2070-71 $8,842,107,930 $8,805,021,930 $88,050,219 $20,870,800 ($1,043,540) $19,827,260 42 FY 2071-72 $9,033,406,088 $8,996,320,088 $89,963,201 $21,324,240 ($1,066,212) $20,258,028 43 FY 2072-73 $9,214,074,210 $9,176,988,210 $91,769,882 $21,752,483 ($1,087,624) $20,664,859 44 FY 2073-74 $9,398,355,694 $9,361,269,694 $93,612,697 $22,189,291 ($1,109,465) $21,079,826 45 FY 2074-75 $9,586,322,808 $9,549,236,808 $95,492,368 $22,634,835 ($1,131,742) $21,503,093 Source: EPS.
South of Jensen EIFD Revenues
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-5
Table C-6
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Estimated Assessed Value Growth - South of Jensen (High Absorption Scenario) EIFD Year
Calendar
Year Fiscal Year
Beginning
Assessed
Value [1]
2%
Growth
Assessed Value
from New
Development [2]
Ending
Assessed
Value
Base Year 2029 FY 2029-30 $37,086,000 $741,720 - $37,827,720 1 2030 FY 2030-31 $37,827,720 $756,554 $432,125,000 $470,709,274 2 2031 FY 2031-32 $470,709,274 $9,414,185 $440,524,000 $920,647,460 3 2032 FY 2032-33 $920,647,460 $18,412,949 $453,740,000 $1,392,800,409 4 2033 FY 2033-34 $1,392,800,409 $27,856,008 $467,352,000 $1,888,008,417 5 2034 FY 2034-35 $1,888,008,417 $37,760,168 $481,373,000 $2,407,141,586 6 2035 FY 2035-36 $2,407,141,586 $48,142,832 $500,951,000 $2,956,235,417 7 2036 FY 2036-37 $2,956,235,417 $59,124,708 $510,688,000 $3,526,048,126 8 2037 FY 2037-38 $3,526,048,126 $70,520,963 $526,009,000 $4,122,578,088 9 2038 FY 2038-39 $4,122,578,088 $82,451,562 $541,789,000 $4,746,818,650 10 2039 FY 2039-40 $4,746,818,650 $94,936,373 - $4,841,755,023 11 2040 FY 2040-41 $4,841,755,023 $96,835,100 $5,956,000 $4,944,546,123 12 2041 FY 2041-42 $4,944,546,123 $98,890,922 - $5,043,437,046 13 2042 FY 2042-43 $5,043,437,046 $100,868,741 - $5,144,305,787 14 2043 FY 2043-44 $5,144,305,787 $102,886,116 - $5,247,191,903 15 2044 FY 2044-45 $5,247,191,903 $104,943,838 - $5,352,135,741 16 2045 FY 2045-46 $5,352,135,741 $107,042,715 $6,904,000 $5,466,082,455 17 2046 FY 2046-47 $5,466,082,455 $109,321,649 - $5,575,404,104 18 2047 FY 2047-48 $5,575,404,104 $111,508,082 - $5,686,912,187 19 2048 FY 2048-49 $5,686,912,187 $113,738,244 - $5,800,650,430 20 2049 FY 2049-50 $5,800,650,430 $116,013,009 - $5,916,663,439 21 2050 FY 2050-51 $5,916,663,439 $118,333,269 $8,004,000 $6,043,000,708 22 2051 FY 2051-52 $6,043,000,708 $120,860,014 - $6,163,860,722 23 2052 FY 2052-53 $6,163,860,722 $123,277,214 - $6,287,137,936 24 2053 FY 2053-54 $6,287,137,936 $125,742,759 - $6,412,880,695 25 2054 FY 2054-55 $6,412,880,695 $128,257,614 - $6,541,138,309 26 2055 FY 2055-56 $6,541,138,309 $130,822,766 $9,279,000 $6,681,240,075 27 2056 FY 2056-57 $6,681,240,075 $133,624,802 - $6,814,864,877 28 2057 FY 2057-58 $6,814,864,877 $136,297,298 - $6,951,162,174 29 2058 FY 2058-59 $6,951,162,174 $139,023,243 - $7,090,185,418 30 2059 FY 2059-60 $7,090,185,418 $141,803,708 - $7,231,989,126 31 2060 FY 2060-61 $7,231,989,126 $144,639,783 $10,757,000 $7,387,385,908 32 2061 FY 2061-62 $7,387,385,908 $147,747,718 - $7,535,133,627 33 2062 FY 2062-63 $7,535,133,627 $150,702,673 - $7,685,836,299 34 2063 FY 2063-64 $7,685,836,299 $153,716,726 - $7,839,553,025 35 2064 FY 2064-65 $7,839,553,025 $156,791,061 - $7,996,344,086 36 2065 FY 2065-66 $7,996,344,086 $159,926,882 $12,470,000 $8,168,740,967 37 2066 FY 2066-67 $8,168,740,967 $163,374,819 - $8,332,115,787 38 2067 FY 2067-68 $8,332,115,787 $166,642,316 - $8,498,758,102 39 2068 FY 2068-69 $8,498,758,102 $169,975,162 - $8,668,733,265 40 2069 FY 2069-70 $8,668,733,265 $173,374,665 - $8,842,107,930 41 2070 FY 2070-71 $8,842,107,930 $176,842,159 $14,456,000 $9,033,406,088 42 2071 FY 2071-72 $9,033,406,088 $180,668,122 - $9,214,074,210 43 2072 FY 2072-73 $9,214,074,210 $184,281,484 - $9,398,355,694 44 2073 FY 2073-74 $9,398,355,694 $187,967,114 - $9,586,322,808 45 2074 FY 2074-75 $9,586,322,808 $191,726,456 - $9,778,049,264 Source: EPS.
[1] Beginning Assessed Values are the basis for EIFD revenues. Ending Assessed Values are shown only to illustrate how the next fiscal year's Beginning AV is derived, incorporating 2% growth and newly added AV of the prior fiscal year.
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-6
Table C-7
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
Absorption Timeline - South of Jensen (High Absorption Scenario) Annual Cumulative
2030 22,500 2,000,000 2,022,500 2,022,500
2031 - 2,000,000 2,000,000 4,022,500
2032 - 2,000,000 2,000,000 6,022,500
2033 - 2,000,000 2,000,000 8,022,500
2034 - 2,000,000 2,000,000 10,022,500
2035 22,500 2,000,000 2,022,500 12,045,000
2036 - 2,000,000 2,000,000 14,045,000
2037 - 2,000,000 2,000,000 16,045,000
2038 - 2,000,000 2,000,000 18,045,000
2039 - - - 18,045,000
2040 22,500 - 22,500 18,067,500
2041 - - - 18,067,500
2042 - - - 18,067,500
2043 - - - 18,067,500
2044 - - - 18,067,500
2045 22,500 - 22,500 18,090,000
2046 - - - 18,090,000
2047 - - - 18,090,000
2048 - - - 18,090,000
2049 - - - 18,090,000
2050 22,500 - 22,500 18,112,500
2051 - - - 18,112,500
2052 - - - 18,112,500
2053 - - - 18,112,500
2054 - - - 18,112,500
2055 22,500 - 22,500 18,135,000
2056 - - - 18,135,000
2057 - - - 18,135,000
2058 - - - 18,135,000
2059 - - - 18,135,000
2060 22,500 - 22,500 18,157,500
2061 - - - 18,157,500
2062 - - - 18,157,500
2063 - - - 18,157,500
2064 - - - 18,157,500
2065 22,500 - 22,500 18,180,000
2066 - - - 18,180,000
2067 - - - 18,180,000
2068 - - - 18,180,000
2069 - - - 18,180,000
2070 22,500 - 22,500 18,202,500
2071 - - - 18,202,500
2072 - - - 18,202,500
2073 - - - 18,202,500
2074 - - - 18,202,500
2075 663,750 - 663,750 18,866,250
Total 866,250 18,000,000 18,866,250 18,866,250
Source: EPS.
Nonresidential Development (Sq. Ft.)
Year Office
Industrial
(Flex R&D)
Total New Sq. Ft.
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-7
Table C-8
City of Fresno South SEDA
EIFD Funding Analysis
New Development Assessed Value Timeline - South of Jensen (High Absorption Scenario) Annual Cumulative Annual Cumulative
2030 $3,937,500 $380,000,000 $383,937,500 $383,937,500 $432,125,000 $432,125,000 2031 - $380,000,000 $380,000,000 $763,937,500 $440,524,000 $872,649,000 2032 - $380,000,000 $380,000,000 $1,143,937,500 $453,740,000 $1,326,389,000 2033 - $380,000,000 $380,000,000 $1,523,937,500 $467,352,000 $1,793,741,000 2034 - $380,000,000 $380,000,000 $1,903,937,500 $481,373,000 $2,275,114,000 2035 $3,937,500 $380,000,000 $383,937,500 $2,287,875,000 $500,951,000 $2,776,065,000 2036 - $380,000,000 $380,000,000 $2,667,875,000 $510,688,000 $3,286,753,000 2037 - $380,000,000 $380,000,000 $3,047,875,000 $526,009,000 $3,812,762,000 2038 - $380,000,000 $380,000,000 $3,427,875,000 $541,789,000 $4,354,551,000 2039 - - - $3,427,875,000 - $4,354,551,000
2040 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,431,812,500 $5,956,000 $4,360,507,000 2041 - - - $3,431,812,500 - $4,360,507,000
2042 - - - $3,431,812,500 - $4,360,507,000
2043 - - - $3,431,812,500 - $4,360,507,000
2044 - - - $3,431,812,500 - $4,360,507,000
2045 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,435,750,000 $6,904,000 $4,367,411,000 2046 - - - $3,435,750,000 - $4,367,411,000
2047 - - - $3,435,750,000 - $4,367,411,000
2048 - - - $3,435,750,000 - $4,367,411,000
2049 - - - $3,435,750,000 - $4,367,411,000
2050 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,439,687,500 $8,004,000 $4,375,415,000 2051 - - - $3,439,687,500 - $4,375,415,000
2052 - - - $3,439,687,500 - $4,375,415,000
2053 - - - $3,439,687,500 - $4,375,415,000
2054 - - - $3,439,687,500 - $4,375,415,000
2055 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,443,625,000 $9,279,000 $4,384,694,000 2056 - - - $3,443,625,000 - $4,384,694,000
2057 - - - $3,443,625,000 - $4,384,694,000
2058 - - - $3,443,625,000 - $4,384,694,000
2059 - - - $3,443,625,000 - $4,384,694,000
2060 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,447,562,500 $10,757,000 $4,395,451,000 2061 - - - $3,447,562,500 - $4,395,451,000
2062 - - - $3,447,562,500 - $4,395,451,000
2063 - - - $3,447,562,500 - $4,395,451,000
2064 - - - $3,447,562,500 - $4,395,451,000
2065 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,451,500,000 $12,470,000 $4,407,921,000 2066 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $4,407,921,000
2067 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $4,407,921,000
2068 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $4,407,921,000
2069 - - - $3,451,500,000 - $4,407,921,000
2070 $3,937,500 - $3,937,500 $3,455,437,500 $14,456,000 $4,422,377,000 2071 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $4,422,377,000
2072 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $4,422,377,000
2073 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $4,422,377,000
2074 - - - $3,455,437,500 - $4,422,377,000
2075 $116,156,250 - $116,156,250 $3,571,593,750 $494,386,000 $4,916,763,000 Total $151,593,750 $3,420,000,000 $3,571,593,750 $3,571,593,750 $4,916,763,000 $4,916,763,000 Source: EPS.
Nonresidential Development Total Development
Year Office
Industrial
(Flex R&D)
2026$ 3% Price Growth
Prepared by EPS 7/28/26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\252000\252120 Fresno SEDA\Models\252120 EIFD.xlsx 4-C-8