455 W. Fir Avenue
Clovis, CA 93611
Tel: (559) 449-2700
Fax: (559) 449-2715
www.provostandpritchard.com
1 Memorandum
To: Gary McDonald and Will Amador, Gary McDonald Homes
From: Stephen Spencer & Cristobal Gallegos, Provost & Pritchard Subject: Full Build-Out Demand Estimate from 2024-25 City Meter Data, Copper River Ranch Development, Fresno California
Date: August 31, 2026
Note: This memorandum has been revised from our revised July 22, 2021, memo based on 2024 and 2025 water meter data received from the City of Fresno on July 16, 2026.
This memorandum has been prepared to summarize the projected water demand for the Copper River Ranch (CRR) Development at full build out based on actual meter usage data in 2024 through 2025 from the currently active water connections within the development. The City of Fresno provided the 2024 and 2025 water meter usage data for the constructed lots within the CRR Development area (see Attachment 1 – 2024 and 2025 Combined Meter Data ). The meter data included most residential tracts within the CRR Development area (see Figure 1). Meter connections, average day, and maximum day demand for the 41 mixed use tracts included in the City data aided in the demand calculation process.
Connections
The meter data provided by the City of Fresno represents only connections to lots that are currently developed and occupied. For undeveloped lots that lack meter connection data, the Exhibit 1 – Copper River Ranch Exhibit Map1 and
Copper River Ranch Equivalent Dwelling Unit (EDU) Count document2 and available planning and development information were referenced to estimate the number of connections at full build-out. For projects under entitlement review, the number of estimated connections are based on planning submittals and may change during design development. For projects under permit review or under construction, the number of estimated connections are subject to change based on final approved plans and as-built field conditions. In some cases, planned unit counts for tracts in the pre-planning stages are not known. The number of connections listed are domestic meters only. Where tracts have irrigation demand (e.g., for irrigation of medians, etc.), that demand is spread across each connection in the tract to estimate the full tract’s water demand.
Demand
The average day demand for each water meter was calculated by dividing the total volume of water used by the number of days the meter was on-line (generally 365 days for a full year’s operation). In contrast, the maximum day demand serves as an extreme condition occurring once a year when total water demand across the development is the highest 1 Copper River Ranch Exhibit Map (City of Fresno, April 2026) provided by the City of Fresno. 2 Copper River Ranch EDU Count (City of Fresno, June 2026) provided by the City of Fresno. 2 for the year. In 2024 and 2025, that day occurred on August 24 and August 9, respectively per City staff. The arithmetic mean of the average and maximum day flow per connection can be found in the table below. Detailed demand calculations are included in Attachment 1.
Table 1. Demand Per Connection based on 2024 and 2025 Meter Data (City of Fresno, 2026) Average Flow Per Connection
Land Use Designation
Average Day
Flow/Connection
(AVG)
Max Day
Flow/Connection
(AVG)
Single Family Residential, SFR 0.24 gpm 0.42 gpm
Multi-Family Residential, MFR 0.02 gpm 0.04 gpm
Commercial 0.77 gpm 1.51 gpm
Open Space, OS 0.44 gpm 0.90 gpm
Each tract in the SFR, MFR, and Commercial land-use subcategories were calculated separately due to the differences in dwelling unit densities. In order to produce data that was most representative, it was necessary to remove tracts that were less than 50% built out from the typical flow-per-connection calculation presented in Table 1. When calculating total demand for the CRR Development, actual demand by tract was used for tracts that were at least 50% built out.
For partially developed tracts less than 50% built out, demand was estimated using the average per-connection calculation from Table 1. This approach was applied to the MFR tracts Alicante Apartment Site and Copper River Apartment Site, which reported 0 flow in both 2024 and 2025, see Attachement 1.
Demand Projections
Provost & Pritchard examined the City of Fresno’s Attachment 1 – 2024 and 2025 Combined Meter Data to determine an average flow per connection by land use type. The maximum number of connections in a tract were determined by the available development information, and connection assumptions developed for this analysis (Copper River Ranch EDU Count) document. Meter data was used for tracts that are constructed, while average values shown in Table 1 were used for undeveloped areas. As discussed in the Connections section, there are several tracts, generally planned for urban neighborhood developments, that have not yet been assigned a unit count. In these cases, projected connection counts were estimated based on available planning information and the assumptions documented in Copper River Ranch EDU Count – DPU – July 10, 2026 (Attachment 3)3 . The projected demand for the CRR
Development was determined by multiplying the flow per connection by the projected, or existing, connections depending on the status of construction. The final result is shown on Table 2 for the entire CRR Development. The Peak Hour demand is calculated by multiplying the Maximum Day Demand by a peaking factor of 1.534 .
Table 3 further breaks down the demand calculations for the CRR development area by land use designation. 3 Provided by Gary McDonald Homes for this analysis
4 Peaking factor provided by City Staff
3 Table 2. Total Demand Calculation
CCR
Development
Average Day, GPM 837
Max Day, GPM 1,497
Peak Hour, GPM 2,291
Table 3. Total Demand by Land Use Type
Land Use Designation Projected Average
Day Demand, gpm
Projected Max Day
Demand, gpm
Projected Peak Hour
Demand, gpm
Single Family Residential, SFR 711 1,245 1,905
Multi-Family Residential, MFR 11 22 34
Commercial 44 87 133
Open Space, OS 70 143 219
Total 837 1,497 2,291
In addition to the water demand summarized above, the CRR Development water demand includes sufficient water to meet firefighting requirements. City staff have indicated that a fire flow demand of 2,500 gallons per minute should be added to the Max Day Demand to generate a total demand estimate for the CRR Development. Using that value, the Total Water Demand for the CRR development is:
Total Demand at Full Buildout = MDD + Fire Flow
= 1,497 gpm + 2,500 gpm = 3,997 gpm
4 Available Water Supply
As previously reported, the CRR Development has constructed or funded water supplies to meet existing and projected water demands within the CRR Development area (see Table 4)5.
Table 4. Total Water Supplies for CRR
Water
Well/Source
Actual
Maximum
Capacity,
GPM Notes
Well 330 800
Well 369 875
Well 370 1,250 Well 370 has a short term outage but it planned to be back in operation soon.
NESWTP 1,180
Additional supply available to CRR under Water Supply Implementation agreement. 8.5 percent of NESWTP’s then-planned daily output of 20 MPG (i.e. 1.7 MGD).
Total Developed
Well + NEWSTP
Well Supply
4,105
5 Per City of Fresno email from Ahmed Aly dated August 25, 2026. 5 Summary
Table 6 below summarizes the Demand and Supply calculations for the overall CRR Development area, including existing and proposed areas evaluated for this memorandum.
Table 6. Demand and Supply Calculation Summary
CRR Notes
Connections at Full Build-Out 3,575 See Attachment 2 for connections by Tract.
Average Day Demand (GPM) 837 Based on water meter data
Maximum Day Demand (GPM) 1,497 Based on water meter data Peak Hour Demand (GPM) 2,291 Maximum day demand x 1.53 per City Fire Flow (GPM) 2,500 City staff indicated that a fire flow of 2,500 GPM should be applied to the
original development and proposed
development.
Total Demand (MDD+Fire Flow) (GPM) 3,997
Total Water Supply (Constructed+NESWTP) (GPM) 4,105
Excess/Deficit Capacity (GPM/[GPM]) 108
Based on the demand analysis and available water supply information contained in this memorandum, the CRR Development area is projected to have sufficient water supply capacity to serve the entire project area at projected full build-out as of the date of this study.
Golf Course
The Golf Course demand was evaluated separately from the CRR Development demand calculations presented in Table 2 and 3 for consistency with previous studies. Any further analysis of the golf course water demand is outside the scope of this memorandum.
Exhibits and Attachments
Exhibit 1 – Copper River Ranch Exhibit Map
Attachment 1 – 2024 and 2025 Combined Meter Data
Attachment 2 – Projected Demand Calculations
Attachment 3 - Copper River Ranch EDU Count
6 Exhibit 1 – Copper River Ranch Exhibit Map
7 Attachment 1 – 2024 and 2025 Combined Meter Data
Table 2-1 Meter Data, Average Day
8 Table 2-2 Meter Data Maximum Day
9 Attachment 2 – Projected Demand Calculations
Table 3-1 2025 Updated Demand Analysis
10 Attachment 3A – Total Units Calculations
11