City Council - Successor Agency - Housing Authority
February 1, 2022

Attachment 4
Financial Forecasts - FY 2021-22 Mid-Year Budget
Model #1 - Baseline Forecast
Key Assumptions:
a. $3.8M Vacancy Savings Factored into Expenditure Baseline b. Revenue Assumptions - Increased Revenue of $5.1M due to Sales Tax, TOT & Developer Fees c. ARPA - Application of $9.6M of ARPA Funds for Revenue Replacement Adjusted Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected FY 21‐22 FY  22‐23 FY  23‐24 FY  24‐25 FY  25‐26 FY  26‐27 Beginning Fund Balance $13,261,185 $18,202,834 $19,887,623 $20,486,783 $22,258,685 $24,328,164 Revenues 105,984,260       109,665,519     112,239,755     114,974,627     114,450,036     117,112,376 Base Operating Revenues  100,908,385      104,486,572    107,174,430    109,921,194    109,982,102    112,362,283 Revenue Budget Adjustment
s 5,075,875          5,178,947         5,065,326         5,053,432         4,467,934         4,750,092 Expenditures (107,061,923)      (109,990,646)   (111,066,942)   (112,491,089)   (111,523,852)   (113,162,260) Operating Surplus/(Deficit) (1,077,663)          ($325,127) $1,172,813 $2,483,538 $2,926,184 $3,950,115 Total Net Transfers In and Out (280,688)              (1,290,085)        (573,653)            (711,636)            (856,705)            (477,077) Net Change in Fund Balance (1,358,351)          ($1,615,212) $599,160 $1,771,902 $2,069,479 $3,473,038 Application of ARPA Funds
Revenue Replacement  ‐ $9.6M 6,300,000            3,300,000         ‐                       ‐                       ‐                       ‐ Ending Fund Balance $18,202,834 $19,887,623 $20,486,783 $22,258,685 $24,328,164 $27,801,202 10% Contingency Reserve (Minimum) 10,706,192          10,999,065       11,106,694       11,249,109       11,152,385       11,316,226 17% Contingency Reserve (Goal) 18,200,527          18,698,410       18,881,380       19,123,485       18,959,055       19,237,584 Over/(Under) 10% Contingency Reserve 7,496,642 8,888,558 9,380,089 11,009,576 13,175,779 16,484,976 Over/(Under) 17% Contingency Reserve 2,307 1,189,213 1,605,403 3,135,200 5,369,109 8,563,618 *Updated as of 1/25/22
General Fund (including Library and Parks & Recreation) Financial Forecasts - FY 2021-22 Mid-Year Budget
Model #2 - Baseline Forecast with 2.5% Additional Budget Reductions Key Assumptions:
a. $3.8M Vacancy Savings Factored into Expenditure Baseline b. Revenue Assumptions - Increased Revenue of $5.1M due to Sales Tax, TOT & Developer Fees c. ARPA - Application of $9.6M of ARPA Funds for Revenue Replacement d. 2.5% Additional Expenditure (Budget) Reductions
Adjusted Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected FY 21‐22 FY  22‐23 FY  23‐24 FY  24‐25 FY  25‐26 FY  26‐27 Beginning Fund Balance $13,261,185 $20,974,382 $25,488,730 $28,944,934 $33,610,103 $38,547,087 Revenues 105,984,260      109,665,519     112,239,755     114,974,627     114,450,036     117,112,376 Base Operating Revenues  100,908,385    104,486,572    107,174,430    109,921,194    109,982,102    112,362,283 Revenue Budget Adjustment
s 5,075,875         5,178,947         5,065,326         5,053,432         4,467,934         4,750,092 Expenditures (104,290,375)    (107,161,086)   (108,209,899)   (109,597,821)   (108,656,347)   (110,252,979) Base Operating Expenditures  (107,061,923)    (109,990,646)    (111,066,942)    (112,491,089)    (111,523,852)    (113,162,260) Expenditure Reductions ‐ Add'l 2.5% Budget Cuts 2,771,548         2,829,560         2,857,043         2,893,267         2,867,505         2,909,281 Operating Surplus/(Deficit) 1,693,885          $2,504,433 $4,029,856 $5,376,805 $5,793,689 $6,859,396 Total Net Transfers In and Out (280,688)             (1,290,085)        (573,653)            (711,636)            (856,705)            (477,077) Net Change in Fund Balance 1,413,197          $1,214,348 $3,456,203 $4,665,169 $4,936,984 $6,382,319 Application of ARPA Funds
Revenue Replacement ‐ $9.6M 6,300,000          3,300,000         ‐                       ‐                       ‐                       ‐ Ending Fund Balance $20,974,382 $25,488,730 $28,944,934 $33,610,103 $38,547,087 $44,929,407 10% Contingency Reserve (Minimum) 10,706,192        10,999,065       11,106,694       11,249,109       11,152,385       11,316,226 17% Contingency Reserve (Goal) 18,200,527        18,698,410       18,881,380       19,123,485       18,959,055       19,237,584 Over/(Under) 10% Contingency Reserve 10,268,190 14,489,665 17,838,240 22,360,994 27,394,702 33,613,181 Over/(Under) 17% Contingency Reserve 2,773,855 6,790,320 10,063,554 14,486,618 19,588,032 25,691,823 *Updated as of 1/25/22
General Fund (including Library and Parks & Recreation) Financial Forecasts - FY 2021-22 Mid-Year Budget
Model #3 - Baseline Forecast with CalPERS Projections
Key Assumptions:
a. $3.8M Vacancy Savings Factored into Expenditure Baseline b. Revenue Assumptions - Increased Revenue of $5.1M due to Sales Tax, TOT & Developer Fees c. ARPA - Application of $9.6M of ARPA Funds for Revenue Replacement d. CalPERS Projections - Adjusted Actuarial Assumptions and 21.3% FY 21-22 CalPERS Returns Adjusted Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected FY 21‐22 FY  22‐23 FY  23‐24 FY  24‐25 FY  25‐26 FY  26‐27 Beginning Fund Balance $13,261,185 $18,202,834 $19,912,845 $20,288,590 $23,452,874 $28,524,155 Revenues 105,984,260       109,665,519     112,239,755     114,974,627     114,450,036     117,112,376 Base Operating Revenues  100,908,385      104,486,572    107,174,430    109,921,194    109,982,102    112,362,283 Revenue Budget Adjustment
s 5,075,875          5,178,947         5,065,326         5,053,432         4,467,934         4,750,092 Expenditures (107,061,923)      (109,965,423)   (111,290,357)   (111,098,706)   (108,522,050)   (108,500,047) Base Operating Expenditures  (107,061,923)     (109,990,646)    (111,066,942)    (112,491,089)    (111,523,852)    (113,162,260) Estimated CalPERS Projections ‐                      25,222              (223,415)           1,392,382         3,001,802         4,662,214 Operating Surplus/(Deficit) (1,077,663)          ($299,905) $949,399 $3,875,920 $5,927,986 $8,612,329 Total Net Transfers In and Out (280,688)              (1,290,085)        (573,653)            (711,636)            (856,705)            (477,077) Net Change in Fund Balance (1,358,351)          ($1,589,990) $375,746 $3,164,284 $5,071,281 $8,135,252 Application of ARPA Funds
Revenue Replacement  ‐ $9.6M 6,300,000            3,300,000         ‐                      ‐                       ‐ Ending Fund Balance $18,202,834 $19,912,845 $20,288,590 $23,452,874 $28,524,155 $36,659,407 10% Contingency Reserve (Minimum) 10,706,192          10,999,065       11,106,694       11,249,109       11,152,385       11,316,226 17% Contingency Reserve (Goal) 18,200,527          18,698,410       18,881,380       19,123,485       18,959,055       19,237,584 Over/(Under) 10% Contingency Reserve 7,496,642 8,913,780 9,181,896 12,203,765 17,371,770 25,343,181 Over/(Under) 17% Contingency Reserve 2,307 1,214,435 1,407,210 4,329,389 9,565,100 17,421,823 *Updated as of 1/25/22
General Fund (including Library and Parks & Recreation) Financial Forecasts - FY 2021-22 Mid-Year Budget
Model #4 - Baseline Forecast with 2.5% Additional Reductions & CalPERS Projections Key Assumptions:
a. $3.8M Vacancy Savings Factored into Expenditure Baseline b. Revenue Assumptions - Increased Revenue of $5.1M due to Sales Tax, TOT & Developer Fees c. ARPA - Application of $9.6M of ARPA Funds for Revenue Replacement d. 2.5% Additional Expenditure (Budget) Reductions
e. CalPERS Projections - Adjusted Actuarial Assumptions and 21.3% FY 21-22 CalPERS Returns Adjusted Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected FY 21‐22 FY  22‐23 FY  23‐24 FY  24‐25 FY  25‐26 FY  26‐27 Beginning Fund Balance $13,261,185 $20,974,382 $25,513,953 $28,746,741 $34,804,293 $42,743,079 Revenues 105,984,260      109,665,519     112,239,755     114,974,627     114,450,036     117,112,376 Base Operating Revenues  100,908,385    104,486,572    107,174,430    109,921,194    109,982,102    112,362,283 Revenue Budget Adjustment
s 5,075,875         5,178,947         5,065,326         5,053,432         4,467,934         4,750,092 Expenditures (104,290,375)    (107,135,864)   (108,433,314)   (108,205,439)   (105,654,545)   (105,590,766) Base Operating Expenditures  (107,061,923)    (109,990,646)    (111,066,942)    (112,491,089)    (111,523,852)    (113,162,260) Expenditure Reductions ‐ Add'l 2.5% Budget Cuts 2,771,548         2,829,560         2,857,043         2,893,267         2,867,505         2,909,281 Estimated CalPERS Projections ‐                     25,222              (223,415)           1,392,382         3,001,802         4,662,214 Operating Surplus/(Deficit) 1,693,885          $2,529,655 $3,806,441 $6,769,188 $8,795,491 $11,521,610 Total Net Transfers In and Out (280,688)             (1,290,085)        (573,653)            (711,636)            (856,705)            (477,077) Net Change in Fund Balance 1,413,197          $1,239,570 $3,232,788 $6,057,552 $7,938,786 $11,044,533 Application of ARPA Funds
Revenue Replacement ‐ $9.6M 6,300,000          3,300,000         ‐                       ‐                       ‐                       ‐ Ending Fund Balance $20,974,382 $25,513,953 $28,746,741 $34,804,293 $42,743,079 $53,787,611 10% Contingency Reserve (Minimum) 10,706,192        10,999,065       11,106,694       11,249,109       11,152,385       11,316,226 17% Contingency Reserve (Goal) 18,200,527        18,698,410       18,881,380       19,123,485       18,959,055       19,237,584 Over/(Under) 10% Contingency Reserve 10,268,190 14,514,888 17,640,047 23,555,184 31,590,694 42,471,385 Over/(Under) 17% Contingency Reserve 2,773,855 6,815,543 9,865,361 15,680,808 23,784,024 34,550,027 *Updated as of 1/25/22
General Fund (including Library and Parks & Recreation)