ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
The scenarios below present a possible range of costs. As the Management Partners’ report identified, suppression base compensation is about 16% below market, the scenarios below apply the 16% over the next two years, with 8.0% factored into FY 2023‐24 and 8.0% factored into FY 2024‐25. The ongoing cost of living adjustments (COLA) are based on growth factors applied by Management Partners in their report presented on September 6, 2022 (see table 1 below).
Table 1: Growth Scenario Variables
The Growth Scenario Variable table above is presented by fiscal year in Table 2 below.
Table 2: Growth Scenario Variable Assumptions by Fiscal Year
OCFA Growth
City Growth Scenario Variables: Scenario Variables:
COLA1 COLA2 Health Other Revenue OCFA1 OCFA2 OCFA3
High 8.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.00% 2.25% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00%
Medium 8.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50%
Low 8.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.00% 1.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00%
FY24 & 25 FY26> FY24 ‐26 FY27 ‐30 FY31>
Growth Scenario Assumptions Presented by Fiscal Year
Year 1Y e a r 2Y e a r 3Y e a r 4Y e a r 5Y e a r 6Y e a r 7Y e a r 8Y e a r 9Y e a r 10 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 COLA High MP Base 8.00% 8.00% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% COLA Medium MP Base 8.00% 8.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% COLA Low MP Base 8.00% 8.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% Health High MP Base 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% Health Medium MP Base 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Health Low MP Base 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Other High MP Base 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Other Medium MP Base 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Other Low MP Base 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Revenue High MP Base 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% Revenue Medium MP Base 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Revenue Low MP Base 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% OCFA High OCFA Proposal 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% OCFA Medium OCFA Proposal 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75% 3.75% 3.75% 3.50% 3.50% OCFA Low OCFA Proposal 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00% ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
Scenario A: High City Cost / Low OCFA Cost Estimates
This scenario estimates City costs with ongoing COLA of 3.25% annually beginning with FY 2025‐26; City Health related costs estimated at 3.50% annually; Other City costs estimated at 3.00%; Revenue estimated at 2.25% annual growth.
This scenario estimates OCFA cost increases of 3.50% annually between FY 2023‐24 to FY 2025‐26; increases of 3.25% annually between FY 2026‐27 to FY 2029‐30; increases of 3.00% from FY 2030‐31 and thereafter.
Scenario B: Low City Cost / High OCFA Cost Estimates
This scenario estimates City costs with ongoing COLA of 2.75% annually beginning with FY 2025‐26; City Health related costs estimated at 2.50% annually; Other City costs estimated at 2.00%; Revenue estimated at 1.75% annual growth.
This scenario estimates OCFA cost increases of 4.50% annually between FY 2023‐24 to FY 2025‐26; increases of 4.25% annually between FY 2026‐27 to FY 2029‐30; increases of 4.00% from FY 2030‐31 and thereafter.
Scenario C: Medium City Cost / Medium OCFA Cost Estimates This scenario estimates City costs with ongoing COLA of 3.00% annually beginning with FY 2025‐26; City Health related costs estimated at 3.00% annually; Other City costs estimated at 2.50%; Revenue estimated at 2.0% annual growth.
This scenario estimates OCFA cost increases of 4.00% annually between FY 2023‐24 to FY 2025‐26; increases of 3.75% annually between FY 2026‐27 to FY 2029‐30; increases of 3.5% from FY 2030‐31 and thereafter.
Net Cost / (Savings)
(in millions)
Year 1Y e a r 2Y e a r 3Y e a r 4Y e a r 5Y e a r 6Y e a r 7Y e a r 8Y e a r 9Y e a r 10 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 High City Cost / Low OCFA Cost
Low OCFA 27.44 27.65 28.52 29.34 30.06 30.81 31.44 32.00 32.18 32.60 High City 21.87 23.21 24.64 25.37 26.06 26.76 27.34 27.87 28.26 28.69 Net Cost / (Savings) 5.57 4.44 3.88 3.97 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.13 3.92 3.91 Net Cost / (Savings)
(in millions)
Year 1Y e a r 2Y e a r 3Y e a r 4Y e a r 5Y e a r 6Y e a r 7Y e a r 8Y e a r 9Y e a r 10 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 Low City Cost / High OCFA Cost
High OCFA 27.44 27.86 28.96 30.03 31.01 32.04 32.97 33.86 34.37 35.16 Low City 21.87 23.15 24.52 25.11 25.65 26.19 26.61 26.96 27.17 27.41 Net Cost / (Savings) 5.57 4.71 4.44 4.92 5.36 5.85 6.36 6.90 7.20 7.75 ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
Table 3: Net Cost / (Savings) Scenario Comparison
Table 3 below compares the net cost difference between Scenarios A, B, and C.
The chart below depicts the different net cost of contracting out to OCFA based on the variable growth assumptions.
Scenario A is depicted in the blue line and contrasts high City variable growth factors against low OCFA growth factors.
Scenario B is depicted in the grey line and contrasts low City variable growth factors against high OCFA growth factors.
Scenario C is depicted in the orange line and contrasts medium City variable growth factors against high OCFA growth factors.
Net Cost / (Savings)
(in millions)
Year 1Y e a r 2Y e a r 3Y e a r 4Y e a r 5Y e a r 6Y e a r 7Y e a r 8Y e a r 9Y e a r 10 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 Medium City Cost / Medium OCFA
Medium OCFA 27.44 27.75 28.74 29.68 30.53 31.42 32.19 32.92 33.26 33.85 Medium City 21.87 23.18 24.58 25.24 25.85 26.48 26.97 27.41 27.70 28.04 Net Cost / (Savings) 5.57 4.57 4.16 4.44 4.68 4.94 5.22 5.51 5.55 5.81 Net Cost / (Savings)
(in millions)
Year 1Y e a r 2Y e a r 3Y e a r 4Y e a r 5Y e a r 6Y e a r 7Y e a r 8Y e a r 9Y e a r 10 FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 High City Cost / Low OCFA Cost 5.57 4.44 3.88 3.97 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.13 3.92 3.91 Medium City Cost / Medium OCFA 5.57 4.57 4.16 4.44 4.68 4.94 5.22 5.51 5.55 5.81 Low City Cost / High OCFA Cost 5.57 4.71 4.44 4.92 5.36 5.85 6.36 6.90 7.20 7.75 ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
FY 22/23 FY 23/24 FY 24/25 FY 25/26 FY 26/27 FY 27/28 FY 28/29 FY 29/30 FY 30/31 FY 31/32 Fullerton Fire ($ in Mil.)
Net Cost / (Savings)
High City Cost / Low OCFA Cost Medium City Cost / Medium OCFA Low City Cost / High OCFA Cost ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
Scenario A: High City Cost / Low OCFA Cost Estimates
FY
2022‐23
FY
2023‐24
FY
2024‐25
FY
2025‐26
FY
2026‐27
FY
2027‐28
FY
2028‐29
FY
2029‐30
FY
2030‐31
FY
2031‐32
Expense:
Personnel $20.07 $21.31 $22.64 $23.27 $23.84 $24.43 $24.89 $25.29 $25.56 $25.86 Contract Cost $3.04 $3.14 $3.23 $3.33 $3.43 $3.53 $3.64 $3.74 $3.86 $3.97 Other O&M $4.57 $4.70 $4.85 $4.99 $5.14 $5.30 $5.45 $5.62 $5.79 $5.96 Total Expense $27.68 $29.15 $30.72 $31.59 $32.41 $33.26 $33.98 $34.66 $35.20 $35.79 % growth 4.64% 5.31% 5.38% 2.83% 2.60% 2.61% 2.19% 1.98% 1.57% 1.69% Revenue:
Ambulance $4.13 $4.22 $4.31 $4.41 $4.51 $4.61 $4.72 $4.82 $4.93 $5.04 Paramedic Subscription $0.71 $0.72 $0.74 $0.75 $0.77 $0.79 $0.81 $0.82 $0.84 $0.86 Paramedic/Misc Fees $0.31 $0.32 $0.32 $0.33 $0.34 $0.35 $0.35 $0.36 $0.37 $0.38 Other Revenue $0.67 $0.68 $0.70 $0.72 $0.73 $0.75 $0.76 $0.78 $0.80 $0.82 Total Revenue $5.81 $5.94 $6.08 $6.21 $6.35 $6.49 $6.64 $6.79 $6.94 $7.10 Net Expense $21.87 $23.21 $24.64 $25.37 $26.06 $26.76 $27.34 $27.87 $28.26 $28.69 % growth 11.77% 6.13% 6.18% 2.97% 2.69% 2.70% 2.18% 1.91% 1.40% 1.55% FY
2022‐23
FY
2023‐24
FY
2024‐25
FY
2025‐26
FY
2026‐27
FY
2027‐28
FY
2028‐29
FY
2029‐30
FY
2030‐31
FY
2031‐32
OCFA Contract $21.84 $22.60 $23.39 $24.20 $24.99 $25.80 $26.63 $27.50 $28.32 $29.17 Pension UAL Expense $5.38 $5.59 $5.79 $5.98 $6.09 $6.14 $6.07 $5.88 $5.54 $5.22 Retiree Medical $0.47 $0.50 $0.50 $0.43 $0.36 $0.36 $0.34 $0.34 $0.35 $0.35 Private Transport/Billing $2.79 $2.88 $2.96 $3.05 $3.14 $3.24 $3.34 $3.44 $3.54 $3.64 Property Insurance $0.51 $0.53 $0.55 $0.56 $0.58 $0.60 $0.61 $0.63 $0.65 $0.67 Workers Compensation $0.93 $0.84 $0.74 $0.65 $0.56 $0.47 $0.37 $0.28 $0.19 $0.09 Other Expense $0.87 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.00 $0.00 Total Expense $32.80 $33.13 $34.12 $35.07 $35.92 $36.80 $37.56 $38.27 $38.59 $39.15 % growth 0.77% 3.15% 2.88% 2.45% 2.49% 2.04% 1.81% 0.55% 1.31% Revenue Retained by City ($5.36) ($5.48) ($5.61) ($5.73) ($5.86) ($5.99) ($6.13) ($6.26) ($6.41) ($6.55) Net Expense $27.44 $27.65 $28.52 $29.34 $30.06 $30.81 $31.44 $32.00 $32.18 $32.60 $5.57 $4.44 $3.88 $3.97 $4.00 $4.05 $4.09 $4.14 $3.92 $3.91 City COLA 8.00% 8.00% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% OCFA Contract Increase 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.00% 3.00% Net Cost/I(Savings) as a %
of City Net Expense 25% 19% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% OCFA Forecast
($ in millions)
Net Cost/(Savings) from Shift
to OCFA
Cost Comparison with Growth Scenario: Growth Scenario: City‐High/OCFA‐Low Fire Dept Forecast
($ in millions)
ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
Scenario B: Low City Cost / High OCFA Cost Estimates
FY
2022‐23
FY
2023‐24
FY
2024‐25
FY
2025‐26
FY
2026‐27
FY
2027‐28
FY
2028‐29
FY
2029‐30
FY
2030‐31
FY
2031‐32
Expense:
Personnel $20.07 $21.30 $22.62 $23.16 $23.64 $24.13 $24.49 $24.78 $24.93 $25.11 Contract Cost $3.04 $3.11 $3.17 $3.23 $3.30 $3.36 $3.43 $3.50 $3.57 $3.64 Other O&M $4.57 $4.66 $4.75 $4.85 $4.94 $5.04 $5.14 $5.25 $5.35 $5.46 Total Expense $27.68 $29.06 $30.54 $31.24 $31.88 $32.53 $33.06 $33.52 $33.84 $34.21 % growth 4.64% 5.00% 5.08% 2.28% 2.05% 2.06% 1.62% 1.40% 0.96% 1.07% Revenue:
Ambulance $4.13 $4.20 $4.27 $4.35 $4.42 $4.50 $4.58 $4.66 $4.74 $4.82 Paramedic Subscription $0.71 $0.72 $0.73 $0.74 $0.76 $0.77 $0.78 $0.80 $0.81 $0.82 Paramedic/Misc Fees $0.31 $0.32 $0.32 $0.33 $0.33 $0.34 $0.34 $0.35 $0.36 $0.36 Other Revenue $0.67 $0.68 $0.69 $0.71 $0.72 $0.73 $0.74 $0.76 $0.77 $0.78 Total Revenue $5.81 $5.91 $6.02 $6.12 $6.23 $6.34 $6.45 $6.56 $6.68 $6.79 Net Expense $21.87 $23.15 $24.52 $25.11 $25.65 $26.19 $26.61 $26.96 $27.17 $27.41 % growth 11.77% 5.86% 5.93% 2.41% 2.12% 2.14% 1.59% 1.31% 0.77% 0.90% FY
2022‐23
FY
2023‐24
FY
2024‐25
FY
2025‐26
FY
2026‐27
FY
2027‐28
FY
2028‐29
FY
2029‐30
FY
2030‐31
FY
2031‐32
OCFA Contract $21.84 $22.82 $23.84 $24.91 $25.96 $27.06 $28.21 $29.41 $30.58 $31.80 Pension UAL Expense $5.38 $5.59 $5.79 $5.98 $6.09 $6.14 $6.07 $5.88 $5.54 $5.22 Retiree Medical $0.47 $0.50 $0.50 $0.43 $0.36 $0.36 $0.34 $0.34 $0.35 $0.35 Private Transport/Billing $2.79 $2.85 $2.91 $2.96 $3.02 $3.08 $3.15 $3.21 $3.27 $3.34 Property Insurance $0.51 $0.52 $0.54 $0.55 $0.56 $0.57 $0.58 $0.59 $0.60 $0.61 Workers Compensation $0.93 $0.84 $0.74 $0.65 $0.56 $0.47 $0.37 $0.28 $0.19 $0.09 Other Expense $0.87 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.00 $0.00 Total Expense $32.80 $33.31 $34.51 $35.67 $36.75 $37.88 $38.92 $39.91 $40.53 $41.42 % growth 1.54% 3.95% 3.69% 3.27% 3.32% 2.90% 2.70% 1.52% 2.28% Revenue Retained by City ($5.36) ($5.45) ($5.55) ($5.65) ($5.75) ($5.85) ($5.95) ($6.05) ($6.16) ($6.27) Net Expense $27.44 $27.86 $28.96 $30.03 $31.01 $32.04 $32.97 $33.86 $34.37 $35.16 $5.57 $4.71 $4.44 $4.91 $5.36 $5.84 $6.36 $6.90 $7.21 $7.74 City COLA 8.00% 8.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% OCFA Contract Increase 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% Net Cost/I(Savings) as a %
of City Net Expense 25% 20% 18% 20% 21% 22% 24% 26% 27% 28% OCFA Forecast
($ in millions)
Net Cost/(Savings) from Shift
to OCFA
Cost Comparison with Growth Scenario: Growth Scenario: City‐Low/OCFA‐High Fire Dept Forecast
($ in millions)
ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios
Scenario C: Medium City Cost / Medium OCFA Cost Estimates
FY
2022‐23
FY
2023‐24
FY
2024‐25
FY
2025‐26
FY
2026‐27
FY
2027‐28
FY
2028‐29
FY
2029‐30
FY
2030‐31
FY
2031‐32
Expense:
Personnel $20.07 $21.30 $22.63 $23.21 $23.74 $24.28 $24.69 $25.03 $25.24 $25.48 Contract Cost $3.04 $3.12 $3.20 $3.28 $3.36 $3.44 $3.53 $3.62 $3.71 $3.80 Other O&M $4.57 $4.68 $4.80 $4.92 $5.04 $5.17 $5.30 $5.43 $5.57 $5.70 Total Expense $27.68 $29.11 $30.63 $31.41 $32.14 $32.89 $33.52 $34.08 $34.51 $34.99 % growth 4.64% 5.16% 5.23% 2.55% 2.32% 2.34% 1.90% 1.68% 1.26% 1.38% Revenue:
Ambulance $4.13 $4.21 $4.29 $4.38 $4.47 $4.56 $4.65 $4.74 $4.84 $4.93 Paramedic Subscription $0.71 $0.72 $0.73 $0.75 $0.76 $0.78 $0.79 $0.81 $0.83 $0.84 Paramedic/Misc Fees $0.31 $0.32 $0.32 $0.33 $0.34 $0.34 $0.35 $0.36 $0.36 $0.37 Other Revenue $0.67 $0.68 $0.70 $0.71 $0.72 $0.74 $0.75 $0.77 $0.78 $0.80 Total Revenue $5.81 $5.93 $6.05 $6.17 $6.29 $6.42 $6.54 $6.68 $6.81 $6.94 Net Expense $21.87 $23.18 $24.58 $25.24 $25.85 $26.48 $26.97 $27.41 $27.70 $28.04 % growth 11.77% 5.99% 6.05% 2.69% 2.40% 2.42% 1.88% 1.61% 1.08% 1.22% FY
2022‐23
FY
2023‐24
FY
2024‐25
FY
2025‐26
FY
2026‐27
FY
2027‐28
FY
2028‐29
FY
2029‐30
FY
2030‐31
FY
2031‐32
OCFA Contract $21.84 $22.71 $23.61 $24.55 $25.47 $26.42 $27.41 $28.44 $29.43 $30.46 Pension UAL Expense $5.38 $5.59 $5.79 $5.98 $6.09 $6.14 $6.07 $5.88 $5.54 $5.22 Retiree Medical $0.47 $0.50 $0.50 $0.43 $0.36 $0.36 $0.34 $0.34 $0.35 $0.35 Private Transport/Billing $2.79 $2.86 $2.93 $3.01 $3.08 $3.16 $3.24 $3.32 $3.40 $3.49 Property Insurance $0.51 $0.53 $0.54 $0.55 $0.57 $0.58 $0.60 $0.61 $0.63 $0.64 Workers Compensation $0.93 $0.84 $0.74 $0.65 $0.56 $0.47 $0.37 $0.28 $0.19 $0.09 Other Expense $0.87 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.00 $0.00 Total Expense $32.80 $33.22 $34.32 $35.37 $36.33 $37.33 $38.23 $39.07 $39.54 $40.26 % growth 1.15% 3.55% 3.28% 2.86% 2.90% 2.47% 2.25% 1.03% 1.79% Revenue Retained by City ($5.36) ($5.47) ($5.58) ($5.69) ($5.80) ($5.92) ($6.04) ($6.16) ($6.28) ($6.41) Net Expense $27.44 $27.75 $28.74 $29.68 $30.53 $31.42 $32.19 $32.92 $33.26 $33.85 $5.57 $4.57 $4.16 $4.44 $4.68 $4.94 $5.22 $5.51 $5.55 $5.81 City COLA 8.00% 8.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% OCFA Contract Increase 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% Net Cost/I(Savings) as a %
of City Net Expense 25% 20% 17% 18% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21% OCFA Forecast
($ in millions)
Net Cost/(Savings) from Shift
to OCFA
Cost Comparison with Growth Scenario: Growth Scenario: City‐Med/OCFA‐Med Fire Dept Forecast
($ in millions)
ATTACHMENT 2 – Scenarios