Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM
Introduction
Kittelson & Associates, Inc. (Kittelson) has prepared an evacuation analysis for the City of Glendale, California in support of the city’s General Plan Safety Element update. The evaluation considers two (2) representative evacuation scenarios and provides the city with estimates of roadway capacity constraints and travel time considerations during evacuations. The analysis helps identify locations where there is a greater potential for traffic congestion and need for additional control measures in the event of an evacuation.
This evacuation evaluation is consistent with requirements outlined in Assembly Bill (AB) 7471 and Senate Bill (SB) 992. These laws require agencies to evaluate the resiliency of their transportation system, the capacity of evacuation routes, and identify key routes for community areas with only one access point.
The memorandum includes the following sections:
◼ Introduction, including legislative requirements and analysis scenarios ◼ Methodology
◼ Evacuation analysis results
◼ Evacuation planning considerations and recommendations.
LEGISLATIVE REQUIREMENTS
Recent California legislation, including Assembly Bill (AB) 747, requires local agencies to review accessibility and evacuation routes when specific elements within the General Plan or other emergency planning documents are completed or updated.
◼ Assembly Bill 747 requires that the Safety Element be reviewed and updated to identify evacuation routes and their capacity, safety, and viability under a range of emergency scenarios. This is a 1 https://openstates.org/ca/bills/20192020/AB747/
2 https://openstates.org/ca/bills/20192020/SB99/
155 Grand Avenue, Suite 505
Oakland, CA 94612
P 510.839.1742
September 23, 2024 Project# 29359
To: Reema Shakra
Rincon Consultants, Inc.
From: Mike Aronson, P.E; Grace Carsky; Poppy Yang
RE: Glendale Safety Element: Evacuation Analysis
Exhibit 3
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Introduction Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
requirement for all Safety Elements or updates to Hazard Mitigation Plans completed after January 2022.
ROADWAY NETWORK
The City of Glendale is located in the central area of Los Angeles County, California (Figure 1). It is bounded by the cities of Burbank to the west, Pasadena to the east, Los Angeles to the south, and La Cañada Flintridge to the north.
State Routes
State Route 2 (SR-2) is a state highway that runs southeast-northwest through the City of Glendale. It provides access to the city via several interchanges, including those at Colorado Street and Mountain Street. SR-2 transitions from a freeway to an arterial road, known as Glendale Boulevard, as it continues southeast into Los Angeles.
State Route 134 (SR-134) is an east-west freeway that connects Glendale to Pasadena in the east and Burbank in the west. The portion of SR-134 running through Glendale is a fully access-controlled freeway with multiple interchanges, including those at Brand Boulevard and Central Avenue. This route is a major corridor serving both residential neighborhoods and commercial districts within the city.
State Route 210 (SR-210) is an east-west freeway that skirts the northern edge of Glendale. It connects the city to La Cañada Flintridge in the west and Pasadena in the east. SR-210 is fully access-controlled, with interchanges providing access to Glendale, including a freeway-freeway interchange at SR-2.
Local Road Network
There are several arterial and collector roads that complement the state highways and are also likely to be used for evacuation purposes, depending on the evacuation scenario, including but not limited to:
▪ Brand Boulevard
▪ Central Avenue
▪ Colorado Street
▪ Glenoaks Boulevard
▪ Foothill Boulevard
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Introduction Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Figure 1: Glendale Roadway Network and Evacuation Routes
Source: City of Glendale, Kittelson & Associates, 2024
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Introduction Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
ANALYSIS SCENARIOS
The evacuation analysis considers the following two representative evacuation scenarios:
◼ Wildfire Scenario #1 – Wildfire ignites in the Verdugo Mountains/San Rafael Hills in east Glendale ◼ Landslide Scenario #2 – Landslide occurs in the San Gabriel Mountains in north Glendale These scenarios do not represent every possible emergency that could affect Glendale, but they do represent the highest likelihood emergencies that may stress different parts of the road system. The evacuation scenarios were chosen in discussion with City staff, including Glendale Police Department and Glendale Fire Department, to represent likely emergencies for the Safety Element purposes.
Time Frames
Each evacuation scenario is compared to weekday PM peak hour traffic conditions (between 4PM to 6PM) for two time frames, base year and future year.
BASE YEAR
The base year evaluation is representative of evacuations with existing traffic levels. The available Glendale Travel Demand Model uses a base year of 2021.
FUTURE YEAR
The future year traffic levels include development allowable under the current Glendale General Plan.
Outside of Glendale, the traffic forecasts include travel that would be generated by the 2040 demographic forecasts for the entire region provided by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) for travel forecasting.
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Methodology Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Methodology
Assumptions regarding travel patterns for evacuees were developed based on recent research. The following sections describe the tools and inputs used for the evacuation analysis.
EVACUATION MODELING
Travel Modeling Tools
The evacuation analysis uses the City of Glendale Travel Demand Model (“travel model”). The current travel model was calibrated and validate for a 2021 base year and includes a 2040 future scenario with 2040 land use forecasts and transportation improvement assumptions.
The travel model represents all land uses in the City of Glendale grouped into transportation analysis zones (TAZs) (Figure 2). The travel model includes a representative roadway network (generally all streets except for local residential streets). Each road segment is coded with functional classification, number of lanes, uncongested speed, and an estimate of the typical hourly capacity. The travel model estimates vehicle trips generated by each land use, distributes the trips to a variety of likely destinations, and assigns each origin-destination pair to the best route. The travel model also assesses congestion and iteratively diverts traffic to alternative routes until congestion is balanced between all available routes.
Affected Areas
The areas that would be affected by each emergency scenario were identified based on the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) Fire Hazard Severity Zones mapping and consultation with Glendale city staff and emergency responders. The affected areas were overlaid with the Glendale TAZs to identify the numbers of people that would need to be evacuated.
Time Period
Transportation activity was modeled for one worst-case time period, based on the weekday PM peak hour (between 4PM to 6PM) when non-evacuation traffic and congestion would be at its highest levels. Peak evacuation traffic was assumed to occur during this period involving the specified area within the city.
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H:\29\29359 - Glendale Safety Element Update\GIS\Glendale Safety Element Update\Glendale Safety Element Update.aprx Date: 9/23/2024 Roadway Network and Emergency Routes
Glendale Safety Element Update
Glendale, CA
0 1Mile
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Glendale Traffic Analysis Zones
Glendale City Boundary
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Methodology Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Number of Evacuation Trips
If a fire occurs during the night, most residents would be home but most employees would not be at their workplace. If a fire occurs during the workday, most employees would be at their workplace but many residents would not be at their homes. The evacuation analysis conservatively assumes that 75 percent of residents and 75 percent of employees would need to evacuate during a fire event.
Depending on the order received, a proportion of residents, employees, and visitors will choose to evacuate. When a zone is assigned an Evacuation Order, it is assumed that 90 percent of residents, employees, and visitors will evacuate and approximately 10 percent will remain behind. The estimated factors are based on survey results from people impacted by prior fires in California in UC Berkeley’s Review of California Wildfire Evacuations from 2017 to 2019.3 Based on vehicle ownership data from the United States Census American Community Survey (ACS)4, there are a weighted average of 1.6 vehicles per household in Glendale. Therefore, the number of evacuating households is multiplied by 1.6 to estimate residential vehicles. Each evacuating employee is assumed to use one vehicle.
Evacuation Destinations
Likely evacuation destinations were identified in consultation with city staff:
◼ Clark Magnet School, Glendale Civic Auditorium, and Glendale High School are used to estimate evacuation trips leaving Glendale towards the north and the south in the base and future years. o For the wildfire scenario, Clark Magnet School and Glendale High School were chosen as evacuation destinations.
o For the landslide scenario, Glendale Civic Auditorium and Glendale High School were chosen as evacuation destinations.
◼ Burbank and Pasadena are also used as evacuation destinations for evacuees leaving Glendale.
The percentage of trips heading for each evacuation destination were assigned based on the location and direction of the evacuation. The majority of trips were typically assigned to the nearest destination within Glendale if the evacuation route would not cross the affected fire or landslide area. However, smaller percentages of trips from each neighborhood were assumed to want to travel in the other directions, particularly if they could reach shelter with family or friends.
3 This assumption is based in knowledge that there is a certain contingent of people who will not evacuate, even when under off icial notice. See Wong, S., Broader, J. and Shaheen, P., 2022. Review of California Wildfire Evacuations from 2017 to 2019 . [online] Escholarship.org. Available at: < https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5w85z07g > 4 U.S. Census Bureau. "Household Size by Vehicles Available." American Community Survey, ACS 5 -Year Estimates Detailed Tables, Table B08201, 2022, https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT5Y2022.B08201?q=b08201&g=160XX00US0613214&moe=false. Accessed on May 2, 2024.
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Methodology Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
The distribution of the destinations is not intended to represent a precise distribution of the routes that would be taken during an evacuation.
Roadway Capacity
Traffic congestion, as measured by the demand volume-to-capacity ratio, was modeled using the default average capacities for each roadway. The scenarios conservatively represent conditions without implementation of any evacuation strategies, such as manual traffic control or contraflow lanes, which could increase roadway capacity in one direction versus the other.
Travel Times
The travel model includes formulas which estimate how much travel speeds decrease based on the demand volume versus the capacity and the type of road. These formulas are based on standard travel forecasting practice. Travel times for evacuation trips are estimated by identifying the best route between origins and destinations with the congested speeds and summing the congested travel times on each road segment along the route.
LIMITATIONS
The results of this evaluation are intended to identify potential congested locations during modeled representative evacuation scenarios. These scenarios were developed based on conservative assumptions and modeling techniques that reflect current understanding of evacuation analysis. These scenarios are intended to model a potential range of different evacuation scenarios but not all possible scenarios.
The scenarios represent potential emergencies occurring in portions of the City of Glendale. Actual emergencies may occur at other locations in and around the city and the specific conditions of an emergency evacuation could result in evacuation behavior that diverges from the definitions and assumptions used for this analysis. As a result, the identified scenarios and evacuation constraints represent informed estimates of the most likely potential evacuation scenario footprints and capacity constraints based on available data.
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Analysis Results
Evacuation analysis was conducted for the analysis peak hour (between 4PM to 6PM) for conditions with no evacuation and for the two (2) different evacuation scenarios. The analysis is presented for the base year and future year.
BASE YEAR NO EVACUATION CONDITIONS
The PM peak analysis hour volumes were compared to road capacities for weekday conditions without an emergency evacuation event. These congestion conditions can be compared to the congestion conditions with an evacuation event to determine where additional traffic management may be needed during an emergency.
Base Year
The PM peak hour (between 4PM to 6PM) modeling for the base year without an evacuation event indicates roadway conditions near or over capacity in the following locations within the City of Glendale (Figure 3):
◼ I-5 west of Glendale (northwest of I-5/SR-134 interchange) ◼ SR-134 between I-5/SR-134 interchange and Concord St
Beyond the city limit, the base year scenario indicates roadway conditions near or over capacity in the following locations:
◼ I-5 going through Burbank, near I-5/SR-134 interchange, and several I-5 ramp locations, e.g. at Los Feliz Blvd and Fletcher Dr
◼ Along SR-210: La Tuna Canyon Rd and Tujunga Canyon Blvd ◼ Along SR-2: N San Fernando Rd (between SR-2 and Hallett Ave), Eagle Rock Blvd and El Paso Dr (between SR-2 and Terrace 49), York Blvd (between SR-2 and N Avenue 54), Colorado Blvd (between SR-2 and College View Ave)
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Figure 3: Base Year PM Peak Hour Congestion Locations, No Evacuation
Source: Kittelson & Associates using Glendale travel model, 2024
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Future Year
The PM peak hour (between 4PM to 6PM) modeling for the future year with the proposed General Plan (Mobility and Land Use Elements) and without an evacuation event forecasts roadway conditions near or over capacity in the following locations within the City of Glendale (Figure 4):
◼ I-5 in west Glendale (northwest of I-5/SR-134 interchange). ◼ SR-134: between the I-5 SR-134 interchange and Concord St, N Central Ave and N Jackson St, Geneva St and N Glendale Ave
◼ Small sections of some roadways:
o San Fernando Rd between S Pacific Ave and W Acacia Ave o W Laurel St between S Central Ave and S Brand Blvd
Beyond the city limit, the future year scenario indicates roadway conditions near or over capacity in the following locations:
◼ I-5 southwest of Glendale, going through Burbank, near I-5/SR interchange, and several I-5 ramp locations, e.g. at Los Feliz Blvd and Fletcher Dr
◼ Along SR-210: La Tuna Canyon Rd and Tujunga Canyon Blvd ◼ Along SR-2: N San Fernando Rd (between SR-2 and Hallett Ave), Eagle Rock Blvd and El Paso Dr (between SR-2 and Terrace 49), York Blvd (between SR-2 and N Avenue 54), Colorado Blvd (between SR-2 and College View Ave)
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Figure 4: Future Year PM Peak Hour Congestion Locations, No Evacuation
Source: Kittelson & Associates using Glendale travel model, 2024
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
SCENARIO 1: WILDFIRE IN EAST GLENDALE
Under this scenario, a fire ignites in the Verdugo Mountains / San Rafael Hills in east Glendale, initiating an evacuation order for communities in the eastern half of Glendale, such as College Hills, Glenoaks Canyon, Rancho San Rafael, and Emerald Isle (Figure 5). Residents and workers are given orders to evacuate to Clark Magnet School or Glendale High School. Table 1 shows the estimated number of households and employees in the affected area by transportation analysis zone (TAZ) as well as the total estimated evacuation trips for this scenario.
Base Year
If an evacuation were to occur due to a wildfire in the Verdugo Mountains, the analysis estimates over- capacity conditions on several roadways in the City as shown in Figure 6. Specifically, the roadways where demand volumes are projected to be at or exceed road capacity with the City of Glendale include:
◼ Along I-5: west of Glendale (west of I-5/SR-134 interchange, similar to no evacuation conditions), segments close to SR-134/SR-2 interchange
◼ Along SR-210: Lowell Ave (between SR-210 and Foothill Blvd), Pennsylvania Ave (between SR-210 and Los Olivos Ln), New York Ave (between Foothill Blvd and Santa Carlotta St) ◼ SR-134 between I-5/SR-134 interchange and Concord St (similar to no evacuation conditions) ◼ Along SR-2 between Camino San Rafael and SR-134
Beyond the city limit, the base year scenario estimates congestion in the following locations:
◼ I-5 going through Burbank, near I-5/SR interchange, and several I-5 ramp locations, e.g. at Los Feliz Blvd and Fletcher Dr
◼ Additional length of I-5 west of Glendale
◼ Along SR-210: La Tuna Canyon Rd and Tujunga Canyon Blvd ◼ Along SR-2: N San Fernando Rd (between SR-2 and Hallett Ave), Eagle Rock Blvd and El Paso Dr (between SR-2 and Terrace 49), York Blvd (between SR-2 and N Avenue 54), Colorado Blvd (between SR-2 and College View Ave)
◼ Additional length of roadways southeast of Glendale connecting to SR-134 and SR-2. ◼ Linda Vista Ave between SR-134 and SR-210
◼ Chevy Chase Dr and Highland Dr connecting to SR-210 northwest of Glendale
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Figure 5: Evacuating Area, Wildfire Scenario
Source: Kittelson & Associates, 2024
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Table 1: Affected Population and Peak Hour Evacuation Trips, Scenario 1 in East Glendale Wildfire Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
6 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E026 394 85 494 394 85 494
7 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E017 410 0 454 410 0 455
9 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E038 171 25 202 171 28 204
10 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 4 79 57 5 81 59
11 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E026 0 3,704 2,500 0 3,708 2,503
13 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E026 519 44 605 519 45 605
15 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E017 380 33 443 383 31 445
16 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E038 421 17 465 421 17 465
17 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 244 4,593 3,364 244 4,594 3,364
26 Q1585 98 0 68 98 0 68
48 Q1585 58 9 67 58 9 67
49 Q1585 134 25 109 134 27 111
50 Q1585 333 319 556 333 329 563
52 Q1585 195 29 222 195 30 222
53 Q1585 73 0 51 73 0 51
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
136 Q1585 34 112 99 34 114 100
195 Q1585 68 117 127 68 121 129
203 Q1585 40 128 114 40 131 116
213 Q1585 133 194 268 133 192 267
229 Q1585 65 57 106 65 59 107
234 Q1585 501 302 716 501 300 714
379 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E038 351 7 384 351 7 383
380 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E038 0 84 57 0 83 56
386 Q1585 165 30 174 165 32 176
389 Q1585 101 120 191 101 118 190
390 Q1585 220 0 205 220 0 205
395 Q1585 241 108 296 241 109 296
399 Q1585 170 0 159 170 0 159
401 Q1585 95 29 85 95 36 89
444 Q1585 99 147 169 99 147 169
451 Q1585 101 106 166 101 103 164
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City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Analysis Results Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
459 Q1585 148 40 164 148 40 165
460 Q1585 92 30 84 92 29 83
461 Q1585 129 169 235 129 166 233
463 Q1585 89 172 198 89 172 198
476 Q1585 411 107 445 411 106 445
477 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 262 61 324 264 63 327
478 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 81 0 87 81 0 87
479 Q1585 441 36 474 441 36 474
480 Q1585 344 0 335 344 0 335
481 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 146 77 209 146 76 209
482 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 78 0 85 78 0 85
483 Q1585 225 50 261 225 51 262
484 Q1585 133 36 162 133 36 161
485 Q1585 251 35 283 251 37 285
486 Q1585 92 22 116 92 24 117
487 Q1585 173 28 193 173 27 192
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Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
488 Q1585 203 25 222 203 26 222
489 Q1585 158 0 147 158 0 147
490 Q1585 116 0 118 116 0 117
491 Q1585 129 0 131 130 0 132
492 Q1585 82 73 132 82 75 133
493 Q1585 177 215 328 177 216 328
494 Q1585 175 131 265 175 132 266
495 Q1585 152 34 164 153 34 165
496 Q1585 87 126 145 87 124 144
497 Q1585 282 0 285 282 0 285
498 Q1585 160 0 149 160 0 149
499 Q1585 63 72 112 63 74 114
500 Q1585 257 0 259 257 0 259
501 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E038 43 23 62 43 25 64
502 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 178 257 366 178 256 366
503 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E042 34 0 37 34 0 37
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Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
503 Q1585 34 0 37 34 0 37
504 Q1585 84 0 91 84 0 91
558 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E030 245 0 359 246 0 361
559 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E018 533 1 781 533 0 780
560 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E030 120 0 176 120 0 176
561 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E040 74 0 107 73 0 107
562 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E029 328 24 496 328 125 564
563 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E027 90 0 100 90 0 100
564 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E041 134 0 196 134 0 196
565 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E044 0 158 107 0 159 107
566 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E039 51 0 75 53 0 77
567 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E028 348 0 510 348 0 510
568 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E040 32 0 47 33 0 48
569 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E044 289 0 417 290 0 419
570 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E039 230 0 336 230 0 336
571 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E044 193 0 278 193 0 278
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Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
572 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E040 80 0 117 83 0 122
573 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E040 150 39 246 150 39 246
574 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E043 268 60 426 268 60 427
575 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E027 202 0 296 202 0 296
576 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E018 0 0 0 0 0 0
577 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E018 0 1,450 979 0 1,519 1,025
824 Q1177 471 747 1,150 526 646 1,157
826 Q1177 699 1,000 1,636 752 876 1,624
827 Q1177 350 1,530 1,514 377 1,343 1,425
Source: City of Glendale Travel Demand Model ; Kittelson & Associates, Inc., 2024 September 2024 Page 21
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Figure 6: Congestion Locations, Wildfire Scenario, Base Year
Source: Kittelson & Associates using Glendale travel model, 2024
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Future Year
With peak evacuation from a wildfire in the Verdugo Mountains in the future year, the analysis predicts over-capacity conditions on several roadways in the city as shown in Figure 7. In addition to the locations listed for the base year, the roadways where demand volumes are projected to be at or exceed road capacity with the City of Glendale include:
◼ All I-5 segments in the west of Glendale
◼ Segments in parallel to I-5 in the northwest of Glendale: W Kenneth Rd, Glenwood Rd, 5th St, W Glenoaks Blvd, San Fernando Rd, Grand Central Ave, Flower St ◼ SR-134: between I-5/SR-134 interchange and Concord St, N Central Ave and N Jackson St, Geneva St and N Glendale Ave (similar to no evacuation conditions) ◼ Scattered segments, e.g. San Fernando Rd between S Pacific Ave and W Acacia Ave, W Laurel St between S Central Ave and S Brand Blvd (similar to no evacuation conditions) ◼ Along SR-2 between Camino San Rafael and SR-134
Beyond the city limit, the future year scenario indicates congestion in the following locations:
◼ I-5 going through Burbank, near I-5/SR interchange, and several I-5 ramp locations, e.g. at Los Feliz Blvd and Fletcher Dr
◼ Additional length of I-5 west of Glendale
◼ Along SR-210: La Tuna Canyon Rd and Tujunga Canyon Blvd ◼ Along SR-2: N San Fernando Rd (between SR-2 and Hallett Ave), Eagle Rock Blvd and El Paso Dr (between SR-2 and Terrace 49), York Blvd (between SR-2 and N Avenue 54), Colorado Blvd (between SR-2 and College View Ave)
◼ Additional length of roadways southeast of Glendale connecting to SR-134 and SR-2: Atwater Ave, N San Fernando Rd, Fletcher Dr
◼ Linda Vista Ave between SR-134 and SR-210
◼ Chevy Chase Dr and Highland Dr connecting to SR-210 northeast of Glendale
Travel Times
Travel times between Glendale neighborhoods and various evacuation destinations are listed in Table 2 With base year traffic levels, an evacuation event would add up to 30 minutes to the time to reach the Clark Magnet School, up to 36 minutes to reach safety in Pasadena, and up to 21 minutes to Glendale High School. With future year traffic levels, an evacuation event would add up to 40 minutes to the time to the Clark Magnet School, up to 40 minutes to Pasadena, and up to 25 minutes to Glendale High School.
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Figure 7: Congestion Locations, Scenario 1 Verdugo Mountains Wildfire, Future Year
Source: Kittelson & Associates using Glendale travel model, 2024
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Table 2: Travel Times (Minutes), Scenario 1 East Glendale Wildfire Origin and Destination
Base Year No
Evacuation
Base Year
Scenario 1
Future Year No
Evacuation
Future Year
Scenario 1
From Montecito Park
To Clark Magnet School 7.6 10.4 8.0 20.2
To Glendale High School 6.9 9.3 6.9 12.5
East towards Pasadena 17.9 19.3 21.4 23.5
From Emerald Isle
To Clark Magnet School 12.7 23.2 13.0 37.7
To Glendale High School 9.5 17.0 9.5 25.3
East towards Pasadena 16.4 25.8 19.8 34.3
From Chevy Chase
To Clark Magnet School 11.7 19.8 12.0 34.1
To Glendale High School 8.2 14.3 8.5 22.7
East towards Pasadena 15.4 22.4 18.8 30.7
From Woodbury
To Clark Magnet School 11.0 13.8 11.5 23.7
To Glendale High School 3.2 4.8 3.2 7.9
East towards Pasadena 19.0 20.3 22.5 24.6
From Glenoaks Canyon
To Clark Magnet School 13.0 29.9 13.5 39.7
To Glendale High School 4.8 21.1 4.8 23.3
East towards Pasadena 20.8 36.0 24.3 40.2
Source: Kittelson & Associates using City of Glendale Travel Demand Model , 2024
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SCENARIO 2: LANDSLIDE IN NORTH GLENDALE
Under this scenario, a landslide occurs in the San Gabriel Mountains in north Glendale, which is presumed to necessitate the evacuation order for people in north Glendale (Figure 8). Residents and workers are given orders to evacuate to Glendale Civic Auditorium or Glendale High School. Table 3 shows the number of households and employees in the affected area as well as the total estimated evacuation trips for this scenario.
Base Year
With peak evacuation from a landslide in the San Gabriel Mountains in north Glendale in the base year, the analysis indicates over-capacity conditions on several roadways in the city as shown in Figure 9.
Specifically, the roadways where demand volumes are projected to be at or exceed road capacity include within the City of Glendale include:
◼ I-5 west of Glendale (west of I-5/SR-134 interchange). ◼ SR-134 between I-5/SR-134 interchange and Concord St
◼ SR-2 north of SR-134
◼ Segments in the east of Glendale in parallel to SR2, including N Verdugo Rd, Camino San Rafael, Royal Blvd, and E Chevy Chase Dr.
◼ Segments in the north of Glendale connecting to SR-210, including Lowell Ave, Boston Ave, Dunsmore Ave, New York Ave, Pennsylvania Ave, Ramsdell Ave, Honolulu Ave, Montrose Ave, and La Crescenta Ave
Beyond the city limit, the base year scenario indicates congestion in the following locations:
◼ I-5 going through Burbank, near I-5/SR-134 interchange, and several I-5 ramp locations, e.g. at Los Feliz Blvd and Fletcher Dr
◼ Along SR-210: La Tuna Canyon Rd
◼ Some segments of SR-2 to the southeast of Glendale
◼ Along SR-2: N San Fernando Rd (between SR-2 and Hallett Ave), Eagle Rock Blvd and El Paso Dr (between SR-2 and Terrace 49), York Blvd (between SR-2 and N Avenue 54), Colorado Blvd (between SR-2 and College View Ave)
◼ Linda Vista Ave between SR-134 and SR-210
◼ Chevy Chase Dr and Highland Dr connecting to SR-210 northeast of Glendale
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Figure 8: Evacuating Area, Scenario 2 Landslide in North Glendale
Source: Kittelson & Associates, 2024
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Table 3: Affected Population and Peak Hour Evacuation Trips, Scenario 2 Landslide Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
522 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E002 142 0 211 314 0 212
523 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E003 144 202 349 316 202 349
524 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E003 150 175 341 331 172 339
525 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E003 146 55 255 322 55 255
526 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E002 211 0 313 463 0 313
527 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E005 209 113 366 430 110 364
528 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E001 45 0 67 100 0 67
529 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E002 188 0 279 413 0 279
531 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E002 143 42 241 315 42 241
532 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E002 46 10 75 102 10 76
533 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E007 105 2 147 216 1 147
534 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E005 230 0 317 471 0 318
535 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E003 95 0 141 209 0 141
536 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E005 224 0 310 460 0 310
537 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E007 0 19 13 0 19 13
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Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
538 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E005 90 205 262 183 201 259
539 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E002 187 0 277 411 0 277
540 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E006 304 53 447 610 53 447
543 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E006 137 62 232 283 63 233
544 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E007 120 0 166 246 0 166
545 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E007 166 21 244 340 21 244
546 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E007 219 48 332 443 49 332
549 Community 306 4 408 600 4 408
550 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E004 113 65 212 250 63 211
551 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E006 222 96 370 454 106 378
552 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E004 262 192 518 577 193 519
553 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E004 81 175 238 178 175 238
554 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E004 210 0 311 462 0 312
555 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E006 134 64 228 274 65 229
557 US-CA-XLA-GLN-E001 23 26 51 51 26 52
780 Community 258 403 614 570 413 663
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Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
781 Community 129 133 262 288 137 286
782 Community 193 1,588 1,328 426 1,617 1,379
783 Community 275 399 634 736 387 758
784 Community 206 265 453 551 259 547
785 Community 138 132 273 372 129 338
786 Mountain 272 1,660 1,490 548 1,604 1,452
787 Mountain 276 222 524 582 232 549
788 Mountain 183 443 548 387 461 572
789 Alabama 91 882 720 194 917 750
790 Alabama 276 222 524 582 230 548
791 Mountain 564 440 1,065 1,298 449 1,179
792 Mountain 188 721 742 432 734 787
793 Henrietta/Briggterrace 196 45 321 431 45 321
794 Henrietta/Teasley 228 45 368 767 45 548
795 Henrietta/Teasley 228 67 383 767 67 563
796 Henrietta/Teasley 342 67 552 1,145 67 818
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Evacuating
TAZ Evacuation Zones
Base Year
Households
Base Year
Employment
Base Year
Evacuation
Trips
Future
Households
Future
Employment
Future
Evacuation
Trips
806 Community 123 215 293 248 208 307
807 Community 372 543 815 752 528 864
808 Community 372 107 521 752 104 577
809 Community 371 456 756 750 445 806
810 Community 372 107 521 752 104 577
811 Community 247 451 602 498 440 633
812 Community 372 107 521 752 104 577
813 Community 247 215 443 498 208 476
Source: City of Glendale Travel Demand Model ; Kittelson & Associates, Inc., 2024
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Figure 9: Congestion Locations, Scenario 2 Landslide in North Glendale, Base Year
Source: Kittelson & Associates using Glendale travel model, 2024
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Future Year
With peak evacuation from a landslide in the San Gabriel Mountains in north Glendale in the future year, the analysis predicts over-capacity conditions on several roadways in the city as shown in Figure 10. Most congestion locations would be the same as those identified for the base year. In addition to the locations listed for the base year, the roadways where demand volumes are projected to be at or exceed road capacity within the City of Glendale include:
◼ Scattered segments, e.g. San Fernando Rd between S Pacific Ave and W Acacia Ave, E Garfield Ave and E Acacia Ave between S Adam St and S Chevy Chase Dr. ◼ N Glendale Ave (between SR-134 and E Doran St) connecting to SR-134 ◼ Santa Carlotta St/Orange Ave between Dunsmore Ave and Pennsylvania Ave in the east of Glendale
Beyond the city limit, the future year scenario indicates congestion in the following locations:
◼ Glendale Blvd and Hyperion Ave to the southwest of Glendale, connecting to I-5 ◼ Yosemite Dr between Townsend Ave and N Figueroa St
◼ Additional length of segments north of SR-210, including Palm Dr, Ocean View Blvd, and Los Amigo St
Travel Times
Travel times between Glendale neighborhoods and various evacuation destinations are listed in Table 2 With base year traffic levels, an evacuation event would add up to 70 minutes to the time to reach the Glendale Civic Auditorium, up to 70 minutes to reach safety in Pasadena, and up to 79 minutes to Glendale High School. With future year traffic levels, an evacuation event would add up to 99 minutes to the time from north Glendale to the Glendale Civic Auditorium, up to 121 minutes to Pasadena, and up to 110 minutes to Glendale High School.
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Figure 10: Congestion Locations, Scenario 2 Landslide in North Glendale, Future Year
Source: Kittelson & Associates using Glendale travel model, 2024
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Table 4: Travel Times (Minutes), Scenario 2 Landslide
Origin and Destination
Base Year No
Evacuation
Base Year
Scenario 2
Future Year
No
Evacuation
Future Year
Scenario 2
From Crescenta Highlands N
To Glendale Civic Auditorium 10.3 69.9 10.5 99.0
To Glendale High School 12.2 78.9 12.5 109.6
East towards Pasadena 19.5 70.3 23.1 121.1
From Dunsmore Park
To Glendale Civic Auditorium 9.0 68.7 9.2 97.8
To Glendale High School 11.0 77.7 11.2 108.5
East towards Pasadena 18.2 69.1 21.8 120.0
From Crescenta Highlands S
To Glendale Civic Auditorium 8.6 66.0 8.7 94.2
To Glendale High School 10.5 75.0 10.7 104.8
East towards Pasadena 17.8 66.4 21.3 116.3
From Honolulu Avenue
To Glendale Civic Auditorium 8.4 58.3 8.5 84.1
To Glendale High School 10.3 67.3 10.4 94.7
East towards Pasadena 17.5 58.7 21.0 106.2
Source: Kittelson & Associates using City of Glendale Travel Demand Model , 2024
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Evacuation Planning Considerations
This section describes evacuation projects and strategies that may be considered to improve the capacity and resilience of the city’s roadway network to support future evacuation events. The projects and strategies were identified based on previous congestion and evacuation studies, review of recent evacuation efforts, and effective evacuation planning practices identified by US Department of Transportation (USDOT) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The strategies are organized into five categories:
1. Roadway Management
2. Communications
3. Vulnerable Populations
4. Public Education
5. Resource Management
ROADWAY MANAGEMENT
This section includes infrastructure-related strategies that will aid in improving the capacity of the evacuation roadway network, which can be a challenging element in a successful evacuation. For each infrastructure-related treatment, it is necessary to consider downstream capacity limitations and identify if those limits nullify the potential benefits of the treatment as well as other competing roadway design needs to serve other functions and goals. Table 5 outlines each of these strategies and provides a brief description of the strategy and desired outcomes.
Of these strategies, the most effective for increasing evacuation capacity would be those that involve manual control of traffic combined with contra flow operations that allow evacuation on both inbound and outbound lanes of streets, combined with maintaining clear passages for emergency vehicles.
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Table 5: Roadway and Intersection Capacity and Resilience Related Strategies Strategy Recommendations
Responsible
Department
Limited/unlimited
contra flow on
unlimited access
arterials
Establish temporary control points to temporarily close inbound travel lanes on selected unlimited access
arterials (such as parkways and boulevards) to allow
outbound traffic to utilize these lanes during
evacuation.
Glendale
Public Works
(Engineering),
Glendale
Police
Department
Closure of inbound
lanes on selected
roads
Establish temporary control points to close inbound
lanes on selected roadways utilized for evacuation
routes to prevent drivers on these routes from entering the city while evacuation is underway.
Glendale
Police
Department,
Glendale
Public Works
(Engineering)
Restrict left-turn
movements
Establish temporary control points to minimize left-turn movements along evacuation routes and on roads
leading to evacuation routes.
Glendale
Public Works
(Engineering),
Glendale
Police
Department
Stage tow trucks Consider how to stage tow trucks at bottleneck locations along evacuation routes to help detect and
clear minor crashes and maintain traffic flows.
Glendale
Police
Department,
Glendale
Public Works
(Fleet Services)
Adjust signal timing Increase the green time and/or progression band for through movements leading out of an evacuation zone.
Glendale
Public Works
(Engineering)
Signal operation
during power outage
Install signal battery backups in case signal operations need to be maintained during a power outage. Consider
using channeling devices, static signs, and coning
strategies to manage intersection flow during power
outage if the signals lack power.
Glendale
Public Works
(Engineering)
Additional access
routes
Identify and communicate with communities that have
one or two access points. Prioritize adding additional
access to communities which are currently served by
only one or two access points.
Glendale
Public Works
(Engineering)
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Strategy Recommendations
Responsible
Department
Public Transit Develop transportation solutions such as the use of a bus system for evacuating individuals with special needs (such as those with mobility limitations).
Glendale
Public Works
(Transit),
Glendale
Beeline Transit
Traffic control points Establish traffic control points (i.e., locations along designated evacuation routes with emergency
management personnel) to maintain a greater degree
of evacuation management. These locations could
enhance the efficiency of an evacuation, reduce public
confusion, and allow increased operational flexibility
during an evacuation.
Glendale
Police
Department
Vegetation
clearing/management
Maintain evacuation roadways and shoulders to clear
them of trees, vegetation, and debris that would block
travel lanes and shoulders for evacuating and
emergency operation vehicles.
Glendale
Public Works
(Maintenance
Services),
Glendale Fire
Department
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COMMUNICATIONS
This section describes communication strategies that address how information may be shared among agencies, organizations, and the general public for evacuations. During an emergency evacuation event, two types of communication take place: (1) communication among entities involved in the management of response, and (2) communication between the City and the general public. Table 6 outlines each of these strategies and provides a brief description of the strategy and desired outcomes.
Table 6. Communication Strategies for Evacuations
Strategy Recommendations
Responsible
Department
Establish and
maintain
communications
Strengthen and maintain communication among
coordinating emergency event agencies. This could be
achieved through systems such as the Public
Information Emergency System and Emergency Satellite
Communications.
Glendale Fire
Department,
Glendale
Communications
Manager
Variable/Dynamic
Message Signage
Use variable message board equipment and targeted
installation of permanent dynamic message signs on
evacuation routes to improve communication and
reduce public confusion.
Glendale Public
Works
(Maintenance
Services)
Public Posts and
Flyers
Post signs and flyers in public places, such as
businesses, community centers, and parks, with
instructions on where to go in an evacuation and key
evacuation information. Signs and flyers should be
posted in multiple languages.
Glendale Public
Works
(Maintenance
Services),
Community
Services and
Parks
Traffic Control
Center
Implement a traffic control center which would have up
to the minute reports on traffic patterns and can
communicate directly with emergency officers via
broadcast media, social media, and other emergency
communications channels (e.g., Everbridge, Genesis) to
let drivers know about roadway congestion and
conditions and direct them to alternate routes.
Glendale Public
Works
(Engineering),
Glendale
Communications
Manager,
Glendale IT
Department
Traffic
counters/CCTV
cameras
Install traffic counters and/or CCTV cameras on
freeways, which can help assess traffic flow, volume of vehicles evacuating, and monitor incidents during
emergency evacuation events.
Caltrans currently has two cameras in the proximity of
Glendale Public
Works
(Engineering)
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Strategy Recommendations
Responsible
Department
Glendale: SR-2 at Colorado Street and SR-134 at
Glendale Avenue.
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VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
This section identifies strategies specifically for evacuation of vulnerable populations.5 The city can use demographic data and U.S. Census data to identify vulnerable population locations and communities. City staff and emergency response teams may work with specialized organizations such as hospitals, medical associations, public service organizations, public health staff, and other providers or community groups to identify and locate relevant population segments and the types of assistance needed. Public awareness and messaging of programs and resources to help vulnerable populations needs to be communicated ahead of time. Table 7 outlines considerations by need.
Table 7: Additional Steps for Evacuation of Vulnerable Populations Special Need Recommendations
Responsible
Department
Visually
impaired
May be reluctant to leave familiar surroundings when the request for evacuation comes from a stranger. People who are blind or partially sighted may have to depend on their guide dogs and/or others to lead them to safety.
Partner with neighboring cities/private/non-profit agencies to provide adequate paratransit services for those who
need assistance in an evacuation.
Community
Engagement
Response Team
Hearing
impaired
May need additional evacuation warning resources. Include visual aids such as pictures or maps to reinforce key
messages during evacuations. Continue to provide written updates via communication channels, such as Everbridge
and Genesis, and on social media channels.
Community
Engagement
Response Team
Mobility
impaired
May need special assistance such as paratransit. Partner with neighboring cities/private/non-profit agencies to
provide adequate paratransit services for those who need assistance in an evacuation.
Community
Engagement
Response Team,
Beeline Transit
People without
vehicles
Emphasize the importance of carpooling with neighbors or other community members. Provide information on transit routes and transit stops. Identify areas that would benefit from a carpooling program (e.g., communities with limited ingress/egress). Coordinate with neighbors, local
businesses, and local transit to identify volunteers for carpooling at the local level. For businesses or commercial centers, identify if there are commercial vehicles (e.g., delivery trucks) that can be used for evacuation of people or supplies.
Community
Engagement
Response Team
5 Using Highways for No-Notice Evacuations: Five Planning Considerations, FHWA, Accessed August 2022.
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Special Need Recommendations
Responsible
Department
Non-English-
speaking
persons
Provide bilingual or multilingual materials to support
communication with non-English speaking populations
during evacuation. Communications should be created in
English, Armenian, Spanish, Tagalog, and Korean.
Community
Engagement
Response Team
People with
medical
conditions
Communicate in advance the location and availability of hospitals or facilities with emergency/life-sustaining
medical equipment that residents can go to during an
evacuation. Identify the transportation mode of transfers to other facilities, based on the criticality of patients/clients and type of health needs.
Community
Engagement
Response Team
Unhoused
(Homeless)
population
Arrange for food, shelter, and transportation for unhoused (homeless) population. Offer age-appropriate emergency
and evacuation information to homeless children.
Community
Engagement
Response Team
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PUBLIC EDUCATION
Sharing information is a critical element to help educate the general public on how to prepare in advance for an evacuation. The public education strategies the city may consider include:
◼ Defining the meaning of different types of evacuation orders; ◼ Sharing how evacuation orders are declared and communicated to the public; ◼ Providing information on preparations to carry out in advance (such as emergency “go” kits or family evacuation plans);
◼ Conducting a public affair campaign(s) to distribute easy-to-read evacuation maps with alternate routes;
◼ Providing information on available transportation options, including for vulnerable populations; and ◼ Providing information on evacuation shelters and support services offered during evacuation. ◼ Providing regular emergency preparedness trainings in multiple languages at convenient, accessible locations.
◼ Building capacity of resilience hubs, CBOs, and other community groups to support community- based disaster preparedness efforts through direct or passthrough funding, grant writing support, information sharing, etc.
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Evacuations are resource-intensive events that require significant personnel, facilities, and equipment to implement successfully. The City should determine what resources are available as well as what resources will be needed for staff to perform their responsibilities during an evacuation successfully, which can include the following:
◼ Clarity on staff roles and expertise available, including number of staff available to help people evacuate from homes and other buildings
◼ Facilities available (e.g., traffic operations center, shelters, etc.); ◼ Available information systems to support the evacuation (e.g., ITS, computer networks, ancillary hardware such as cameras, road sensor loops, etc.);
◼ Communication systems (e.g., landline, mobile phones, radio system, email, sirens); ◼ Vehicles/transports (e.g., staff transport, tow trucks, transit vehicles, heavy equipment); and, ◼ Miscellaneous materials to support implementation of evacuation strategies (e.g., traffic cones, channeling devices, static signs).
If critical resource gaps are identified, the City may look to work with other evacuation entities to determine additional resources and needs. The City may also work with private sector entities to expand the resource base. For example, utilities companies may keep cell and internet services running in vulnerable communities during public safety power shutoffs. Private service companies such as ambulance operators and towing companies can provide additional assets during evacuation. These companies can clarify what is expected of them during a potential evacuation event to ensure their services are available, when needed.
September 2024 Page 43
City of Glendale Safety Element Update - Evacuation Analysis Next Steps Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Next Steps
This memorandum describes the results of the evacuation analysis as well as evacuation planning considerations and strategies to help improve the capacity and resilience of the City of Glendale’s roadway network to support future evacuation events. This information will be used to frame supportive policies for the Safety Element update. These strategies and policies can be used to identify potential evacuation resiliency improvements throughout the city.